UNCLASSIFIED

2017
Terrorism Threat Assessment

NJOHSP New Jersey Office of Homeland

Security and Preparedness

UNCLASSIFIED
 About Us
Shortly after the tragic events of September 11, 2001, New Jerseys legislature and Governor
passed and signed the Domestic Security Preparedness Act, which created the Domestic Se-
curity Preparedness Task Force within the Office of the Attorney General. In 2002, the Gov-
ernor created the Office of Counterterrorism (OCT) by Executive Order, which remained
under the Attorney General. OCT provided New Jersey with a single agency to lead and
coordinate New Jerseys counterterrorism efforts with state, local, and federal authorities and
with the private sector.

OCT remained in place until 2006, when it was reorganizedagain by Executive Orderinto
the New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness (NJOHSP), bolstering New
Jerseys resources for counterterrorism, critical infrastructure protection, emergency prepared-
ness, training, and federal grants management. NJOHSP was tasked with coordinating coun-
terterrorism and emergency response efforts across all levels of government, law enforce-
ment, emergency management, nonprofit organizations, and the private sector.

Mission
NJOHSP leads and coordinates New Jerseys counterterrorism, cybersecurity, and emergency
preparedness efforts while building resiliency throughout the State.

Core Values
SERVICE. We put our State and its citizens first, and we put Mission before self. We take
pride in being timely, agile, and relevant.

TEAMWORK. We stand with and behind each other. We recognize that partnerships, both
internal and external, are critical to achieving success. We cannot fulfill our Mission alone.

EXCELLENCE. We take great pride in the quality of our work. We do every task, every
project, every initiative, to the best of our ability.

DIVERSITY. We strive to build a workforce that is as diverse as New Jerseys citizenry. We

pride ourselves on encouraging diversity of thought, perspective, and problem solving.

1 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

 Foreword
On Saturday, September 17, 2016, the citizens of New Jersey witnessed a
horrifying event as visitors to Seaside Park in Ocean County were rattled
by an explosion minutes before a US Marine Corps 5K run. The series
of bombings that followed in New York City and Elizabeth were a stark
reminder of the very real threat we face from individuals who want to dis-
rupt our way of life. No longer was terrorism over there; it had arrived here
in our backyard.

But out of the terror came hope. From the members of the public who
led Linden police to Ahmad Rahimis location as well as the site of other
planted bombs, to the heroes who ultimately detained Rahimi at great per-
sonal risk, to the collaboration and mission focus that characterized the subsequent federal, state, and
local investigation, we in New Jerseyonce againshowed how resilient we are in the face of great
danger.

This event, combined with the horrific shooting in Orlando and other brutal attacks abroad in 2016,
reminded us that the greatest terror threat we face is from homegrown violent extremism. This is
largely because the violence some individuals are committed to carrying out is so difficult for home-
land security and law enforcement to detect and deter. Add to this the dramatic rise in domestic
terrorism across our country from race-based, single-issue, anti-government, and religious-based ex-
tremists, particularly against law enforcement and first responders, and it is clear our threat landscape
has expanded dramatically in the last year.

These circumstances dictate that the New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness
(NJOHSP) redouble its efforts to produce finished intelligence that informs local action, invests more
personnel and resources in strategic partnerships at the federal, state, and local levels, and directly
engages the public in awareness campaigns that push the See Something, Say Something message.

In the next year and beyond, we are committed to these actionsand as a result, the dedicated profes-
sionals at NJOHSP make this pledge to you: We will do everything we can to ensure that you and your families
are safe and secure.

But we cannot fulfill this pledge alone. We need your support and partnership. We are all responsible
for keeping our communities safe, so please rememberif you see something, say something
by reaching out to us at 1-866-4-SAFE-NJ (866-472-3365) or e-mail tips@njohsp.gov.

Sincerely,

Dr. Christopher Rodriguez

Director, NJOHSP
January 2017

(Photo: Michael Karas/Northjersey.com) Foreword 2

 Table of Contents
4 What Groups Pose the Greatest Threat to New Jersey in 2017?
Assessed Threat Level

6 What Did We Learn About Homegrown Violent Extremism in 2016?

New Jersey and New York Bombings, September 17-19
Case Studies: Discerning Key Trends
Anwar al-Aulaqi: Inspiring Jihadists Five Years After His Death
Arrests in the Tri-State Area

12 How Is Domestic Terrorism Evolving?

Rise in Deadly Assaults Against Law Enforcement
White Supremacist Attacks in the United States, 2016
Sovereign Citizen Extremists Flouting Laws
Fewer Militia Run-Ins With US Government Likely
Anarchists Mobilizing Amid Civil Unrest
Domestic Terrorism Publications in 2016

20 What Does 2017 Look Like for ISIS and AQAP?

ISIS Losses in Iraq and Syria Could Spur More External Operations
AQAP: Using New Jersey Bombings to Inspire Others
Returning Jihadists Pose Low Threat

24 What Cyberterrorism Risks Do We Face?

Threat Low Despite Kill Lists

26 What Can NJOHSP Do For Me?

Security Starts With YOU

28 What Did NJOHSP Do in 2016?

Notable Deliverables

30 How Does NJOHSP Define Terrorist Groups?

3 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

 What Groups Pose the
Greatest Threat to New
Jersey in 2017?

Section Title #
 Assessed Threat Level
High Homegrown Violent Extremists
Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula
Anarchist Extremists
Black Separatist Extremists
Moderate Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
Militia Extremists
Sovereign Citizen Extremists
White Supremacist Extremists
Al-Qaida
Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent
Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb
Al-Shabaab
Animal Rights Extremists
Anti-Abortion Extremists
Low Boko Haram
Environmental Extremists
HAMAS
Hizballah
Lashkar-e-Tayyiba
Nusrah Front
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan

Changes from 2016

Anarchist Extremists
The threat from anarchist extremists increased from low to moderate in 2017. Last year, this group orga-
nized and directed counter-protests during white supremacist rallies and incited violence during anti-law
enforcement and post-US presidential election protests.

Anti-Abortion Extremists
In 2016, NJOHSP began assessing anti-abortion extremists because of a nationwide increase in threats
against abortion facilities in 2015, when an extremist killed three and wounded six at a Planned Parent-
hood clinic in Colorado.

Black Separatist Extremists

The threat from black separatist extremists increased from low to moderate in 2017. Last year, extremists
killed eight and injured 17 in response to perceived police brutalitycompared to zero such incidents in
2015.

5 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

What Did We Learn About
Homegrown Violent
Extremism in 2016?
 New Jersey and New York Bombings, September 17-19

M
embers of the public reported suspi- Four hours after the alerts were issued, a bar owner
cious behavior that led authorities to in Linden (Union County) notified police after ob-
Ahmad Rahimis location and the site serving a man later identified as Rahimi sleeping in
of other bombs, underscoring that citizen-out- the doorway of his establishment. Linden police re-
reach efforts aimed at raising terrorism aware- sponded and, following a gunfight, took Rahimi into
ness can yield impactful results. On September 19, custody. The previous day, two men found a backpack
law enforcement in New Jersey and New York issued containing five pipe bombs near the Elizabeth train
news media, social media, and cellular alerts to the station. They notified local police, which detonated
public with photos of Rahimi. the device.

Essex
Elizabeth, Cell phone video depicts County Queens
New Jersey Hudson Manhattan
Rahimi testing an County
September 15,
6:30 p.m. improvised device.
1 Union
County
Brooklyn

Seaside Park, A pipe bomb in a

Staten
New Jersey garbage can explodes Island
September 17, ahead of a 5K run
9:35 a.m. honoring the US military. Middlesex
2 County

Chelsea, An explosion occurs in a

New York City
dumpster on West 23rd
September 17,
8:30 p.m. Street.
3

Chelsea, A pedestrian reports

New York City a second undetonated
September 17, device on West 27th
10:30 p.m. Street.
4

Pedestrians discover
Elizabeth, five devices inside a
New Jersey
backpack. A detonation
September 18,
8:40 p.m. occurs, resulting in no
injuries. 5

Linden, After a shootout with

New Jersey
Linden police, Rahimi is
September 19, Ocean
9:30 a.m. taken into custody. County
6

7 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

Case Studies: Discerning Key Trends
Ahmad Rahimi

An NJOHSP nationwide review of home-

grown violent extremists (HVEs) in 2016
reveals common personal characteristics
and tactics prior to an attack. These find-
ings suggest that despite the inherent difficul-
ties of detecting and deterring HVE activity,
there are multiple disruption points along the
path to an operation, including a heavy reli-
ance on public reporting of suspicious be-
havior. The case studies below highlight these
opportunities.

Historical studies of HVEs across the United

States show analogous trends. On September 17, Rahimi conducted a series of
bombings in Seaside Park (Ocean County) and
New York City, injuring 31.

Most HVEs . . . Rahimi . . .

Choose targets proximate to their residences Placed the bombs in locations easily accessible
and in areas of relative familiarity. from his home in Elizabeth (Union County).

Displayed radical viewpoints to family members

after trips to Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2011
Display troubling behavior observable to as- and 2013-14. Although Rahimis father reported
sociates, friends, and family members. his son to local law enforcement, which led to a
federal investigation, he later recanted concerns
about Rahimis behavior.

Cited deceased al-Qaida cleric Anwar al-Aulaqi

Are influenced by multiple terrorist organi-
and former Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)
zations while adhering to Salafi-jihadism, an
propagandist Abu Mohammad al-Adnani as inspi-
extremist interpretation of Islam.
rations for the bombings.

Built improvised explosive devices from materi-

Use easily acquired weapons. als purchased at local stores, using online instruc-
tions.

Act alone or in small groups. Acted alone.

What Did We Learn About Homegrown Violent Extremism in 2016? 8

 Omar Mateen Abdul Artan

On November 28, Artan drove his car into pedes-

On June 12, Mateen killed 49 and wounded 53 at
trians on Ohio State Universitys campus in Colum-
the Pulse nightclub in Orlando.
bus and then stabbed several people, injuring 11.

Mateen . . . Artan . . .
Conducted surveillance at Pulse prior to the at-
Attended classes at Ohio State University.
tack.

Did not display suspicious or terrorist-related be-

Told co-workers in 2013 his family was linked to havior prior to the operation, according to fami-
al-Qaida and that he was a Hizballah member. ly members; however, the federal investigation is
ongoing.

Watched videos of ISIS beheadings and Aulaqi.

During the shooting, Mateen called 9-1-1 and Referenced Aulaqi in a Facebook post before the
identified himself as Mujahideen, an Islamic attack. Law enforcement officials suspect Artan
Soldier, and a Soldier of God, pledging alle- may have read ISISs English-language magazine
giance to ISIS and citing the Boston Marathon Rumiyah, which provides instructions on how to
bombers and a Florida resident who joined an al- use a vehicle to inflict mass casualties.
Qaida group in Syria.

Legally purchased a semiautomatic rifle and a Used his vehicle and a knife purchased the morn-
handgun two weeks prior to the shooting. ing of the attack.

Acted alone. Acted alone.

9 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

Anwar al-Aulaqi:
Inspiring Jihadists Five Years After His Death

T he bombings in New Jersey and New York

and the attacks in Orlando and at Ohio
State University last year highlight the
enduring influence of radical cleric Anwar al-Au-
laqi, who was killed in a US airstrike in Yemen in
ISIS has leveraged Aulaqis messages for its own pro-
paganda. In December 2013 and March 2014, the
group featured Aulaqi in videos promoting the idea
of an Islamic state. Additionally, the fourth issue of
ISISs English-language magazine Dabiq, released in
2011. Ahmad Rahimi, Omar Mateen, and Abdul Artan 2014, featured a photo of Aulaqi.
drew inspiration from Aulaqi prior to executing their
attacks. Many jihadists view Aulaqi as a martyr because he
was killed in a US airstrike, boosting his reverence
A US citizen and native English speaker, Aulaqi and credibility among followers and potential recruits.
demonstrated that anyone can participate in violent Omar Mateen, the Orlando nightclub shooter who
jihad, and throughout various lectures and sermons he killed 49 and wounded 53 in June 2016, had watched
repeatedly called on Muslims in the United States and Aulaqi video sermons on violent jihad and martyrdom.
Europe to take action. Aulaqi is credited with in-
spiring Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev, who killed
three and wounded 264 at the Boston Marathon in
2013, as well as Syed Farook and Tashfeen Malik, who
killed 14 and wounded 22 in San Bernardino, Califor-
nia in December 2015.

Since 2011, Aulaqi has been named in over 20 ter-

rorism cases in the United States.

Ohio State University attacker Artan (left) Orlando shooter Mateen reportedly viewed Aulaqi
and Aulaqi (right). lectures and videos.

What Did We Learn About Homegrown Violent Extremism in 2016? 10

 Arrests in the Tri-State Area

On January 7, Philadelphia police arrested Archer after

Edward Archer he shot a police officer with a stolen firearm. Archer told
Philadelphia responding officers he did so in the name of Islam and
later pledged his allegiance to ISIS.

On May 9, federal authorities arrested Rakhmatov after

Azizjon Rakhmatov he discussed using explosives to attack Coney Island and
New York City President Obama. He also assisted in funding others travel to
Syria.

On May 24, federal authorities arrested Alimehmeti after he

Sajmir Alimehmeti
attempted to assist an individual traveling to Syria. He made
New York City
multiple weapon purchases since 2015.

On September 19, federal and state authorities arrested

Ahmad Rahimi
Rahimi after he attacked multiple locations in New Jersey and
Linden, New Jersey
New York with explosives, injuring 31.

On November 21, federal authorities arrested Naji after he

Mohamed Rafik Naji discussed using a garbage truck to attack pedestrians in Times
New York City Square. He had traveled to Yemen and unsuccessfully tried to
join ISIS cells there.

11 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

 How Is Domestic
Terrorism Evolving?
 Domestic terrorism is violence committed by
race-based, single-issue, anti-government, and re-
ligious extremists without direction or inspiration
from a foreign terrorist organization.

A ccording to an NJOHSP nationwide re-

view, domestic terrorists engaged in 22
attacks in 2016 and were responsible for
an additional 17 plots, threats of violence, and
instances of weapons stockpiling. These num-
Attacks attributed to race-based extremists in-
creased from five in 2015 to 13 in 2016, with the
majority attributed to white supremacists. In July
2016, Ohio authorities arrested Charles Butler and
Robert Paschalis for assaulting a black man outside his
bers represent an increase from 2015, when the same residence in Toledo. Butler posted on Facebook that
NJOHSP study identified 16 attacks attributed to do- the attack was in the name of the White Race, ac-
mestic terrorists, as well as 16 added plots, threats of cording to the criminal complaint.
violence, and instances of weapons stockpiling.

59%
of all domestic terrorist attacks in the United States in 2016
were attributed to race-based groups such as black separatist
and white supremacist extremists, with the primary targets
being law enforcement and minority groups.

Attacks in the United States, 2016

3
Race-Based

Anti-Government
6 13
Single-Issue

13 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

Rise in Deadly Assaults Against Law Enforcement

A n NJOHSP review of extremist attacks

against law enforcement officers nation-
wide reveals that in the last year, these in-
cidents were more lethal and pre-planned than in
the past. They also often occurred following publi-
In October 2016, Damoine Wilcoxson fired at two
police facilities in Indiana, sparking an armed stand-
off. Wilcoxson left handwritten notes outside the
police headquarters demanding $100,000 and stating
white people must die.
cized cases of alleged police brutality and by individ-
uals of varied ideologies. In 2016, 12 attacks resulted Over half of the 12 attacks in 2016 were pre-
in nine police officer fatalities, as compared to eight planned. In January 2016, homegrown violent ex-
attacks that yielded no deaths in 2015. tremist Edward Archer approached a police vehicle in
Philadelphia, fired 13 shots, and critically injured one
Last year, 90 percent of all extremist-perpetrated law officer. Archer later told investigators, Police bend
enforcement deaths occurred after the police-involved laws that are contrary to the teachings of the Koran.
shootings of Alton Sterling in Louisiana on July 5 and In 2015, all eight extremist attacks against police were
Philando Castile in Minnesota on July 6. On July 7, conducted during routine, official activities such as
Micah Johnson, a former black separatist member, traffic stops, search warrants, and interviews.
killed five officers and injured nine others at a Black
Lives Matter protest in Dallas. During the standoff, In 2016, the ideologies of extremists involved in law
Johnson said he was upset over recent police-involved enforcement attacks were diverse; they included race-
shootings and wanted to kill primarily white police of- based, anti-government, and single-issue extremists.
ficers. On July 17, Gavin Long, a sovereign citizen and Notably, in North Dakota, an environmental extrem-
former Nation of Islam member, killed three officers ist was charged after shooting at officers attempting
and injured three others in Baton Rouge after posting to arrest her for disorderly conduct during a pipeline
YouTube videos alleging police oppression. protestthe first reported environmental extremist
act of violence since 2009.

In 2016, 12 attacks resulted in nine officer fatali-

ties, as compared to eight attacks that yielded no
deaths in 2015.
Attacks and Plots Targeting Law Enforcement Deaths
25
Law Enforcement Nationwide 25 and Injuries Nationwide

21
20
20

15
15

12 10
10
9
8
5 5
4 4 4
0
0 0
2015 2016 2015 2016
Attacks Plots Deaths Injuries

How Is Domestic Terrorism Evolving? 14

 White Supremacist Attacks in the United States, 2016

L ast year, there were seven documented at- 4) Charles Butler, Robert Paschalis, Toledo, Ohio
tacks attributed to white supremacists, an On May 18, authorities arrested Butler and Paschalis
increase from five in 2015. They were:
1) Dana Ericson, Nashville, Indiana
for assaulting a black man with a broom outside his
residence, leaving him with a damaged eye socket. Pri-
or to his arrest, Butler posted online that he was acting
On February 18, Ericson, a in the name of the white race.
self-proclaimed white suprema-
cist, slashed a foreign exchange 5) Russell Courtier, Colleen Hunt, Gresham, Oregon
student with a hatchet while the On August 10, Courtier and Hunt attacked an Afri-
student was on a class field trip. can-American teenager outside a convenience store.
He claimed this act was ethnic After the teen tried to flee, Courtier and Hunt ran
cleansing and that he hates over him with their car, killing him. Courtier was a
people of color. long-time member of a white supremacist prison gang
known as European Kindred.
2) Oliver Stewart-Vukicevic, Harlem, New York
On February 24, Stewart-Vukicevic, who was suspect- 6) Daniel Rowe, Olympia, Washington
ed of a hate crime involving anti-Semitic letters left On August 16, Rowe, a self-proclaimed white suprem-
throughout his apartment building, charged at detec- acist, stabbed an interracial couple with a knife after
tives with a knife after they came to investigate. The he saw them kissing outside a restaurant. While under
detectives found swastikas and other hate-filled litera- arrest, he continued espousing racist rhetoric, focused
ture in his residence. specifically on the Black Lives Matter movement.

3) Ian Justine Plankey, Richard Lawrence Daulton, 7) Aaryn Snyder, Fort Wayne, Indiana
Kevin Matthew Stewart, Lake Los Angeles, California On August 21, Snyder, a self-proclaimed white su-
On February 28, Plankey, Daulton, and Stewart began premacist, stabbed his African-American neighbor
using racial slurs and harassing a group of Hispanic to death for being in his yard. Snyder admitted to the
individuals playing soccer and speaking Spanish. The stabbing and was also arrested for failing to register as
harassment escalated, and the three attacked the group a sex offender.
with knives.

3 4

5 6

15 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

Sovereign Citizen Extremists Flouting Laws

S overeign citizen extremists are adopting new

methods to circumvent New Jersey laws due
to a lack of standardized reporting and their
success in using prisons as teaching outlets. In
May 2015, New Jersey statute 2C:21-42, an act con-
Between May 2015-October 2016, there have been
13 incidents in which sovereign citizen extremists
in New Jersey filed fake lawsuits or liens on pub-
lic officials. Due to a lack of standardized reporting
procedures, identifying new trends and enforcing ex-
cerning fraudulent financing statements, enacted isting legislation is difficult. Other states have report-
stricter requirements and increased penalties for filing ed similar gaps in reporting.
false statements and liens.
In 2014, four of 14 incidents in which sovereign cit-
An NJOHSP review of 24 states with enacted or pend- izen extremists threatened to file liens against public
ing laws imposing penalties on fraudulent lien filers officials involved inmates at New Jersey correctional
found that either the laws are not expansive enough facilities. Extremists have taught fellow inmates how
to cover victims or sovereign citizen extremists have to file fraudulent lienssometimes for a feeclaim-
created new ways to get cases dismissed. Online sites ing the tactic will get them out of jail.
claiming to be third-party recording entities offer to
post fraudulent liens on extremists behalf, which can
easily be downloaded and replicated.

Sovereign citizen extremists view federal, state,

and local governments as illegitimate, lacking the
authority to issue or enforce laws.

Sovereign Citizen Extremist Targets in the United States,

2010-16
2% 2%
Law Enforcement (31)
5%
7% Court Official (6)

Government Official (3)

14%
Civilians (2)
70%
Military (1)

Energy Sector (1)

How Is Domestic Terrorism Evolving? 16

 Fewer Militia Run-Ins With US Government Likely

C onfrontations between militia extremist

groups and the US Government will like-
ly decrease this year as signs emerge that
Washington, DC is open to relinquishing some
control of federal land to the statesa longstand-
Publicly, militia extremist groups are beginning
to identify professed non-government threats. In
October 2016, a Kansas militia plotted to bomb an
apartment complex housing a mosque used by Soma-
li immigrants. Additionally, in November 2016, the
ing militia demand. Instead, militia extremists, par- founder of a national militia group hosted a webinar
ticularly along the US-Mexico border, appear poised providing instructions on how to set up neighborhood
to increasingly focus on armed patrols and other per- Kill Zones after the US presidential electiona re-
ceived non-government threats to enforce security. sponse to his anticipation of intruders suspending
the democratic process or legitimizing the imple-
Three bills in Congress, set to be reintroduced this mentation of emergency powers and martial law. Ex-
year, propose transferring millions of acres of federal amples of intruders included political, civil-rights,
land in Nevada to state control and allowing all states terrorist, and race-based groups.
to regulate oil and gas drilling on federal
land in their borders. An NJOHSP review
of militia leaders public statements in 2016
reveals a general sentiment favoring such
moves, as the status of federally owned
land has been a primary driver of armed
standoffs with the US Government in re-
cent years.

Since at least 2005, militia extremist groups

have patrolled the southern US border.
One such group has conducted reconnais-
sance on the US-Mexico border since 2011
Three members of The Crusaders, Curtis Allen, Gavin Wright, and
and claims 200 volunteers, while another
has surveilled border areas in Arizona and Patrick Eugene Stein, who were behind the plot in Kansas to bomb an
New Mexico since 2014. apartment complex.

Number of Militia Groups in the US, 1995-2015

500

400

300

200

100

0
1995

2015

From 2007-12, the number of self-proclaimed militia groups in the United States rose nearly 650
percent, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center.

17 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

Anarchists Mobilizing Amid Civil Unrest

A narchist extremists will likely exploit an-

ti-law enforcement sentiment by carrying
out criminal and violent acts during po-
litical rallies, otherwise legitimate protests, and
race-based events. In 2012, police arrested a doctor
In the past two years, anarchist extremists have infil-
trated peaceful social-rights movements in the United
States. In July 2016, law enforcement officials arrested
about 100 people in Minnesota, including suspected
anarchist extremists, after an anti-law enforcement
in Bergen County for stockpiling explosive materials protest.
and found anarchist extremist literature in his home;
since that time, no anarchist extremist activity has In June 2016, 300 counter-protesters, including some
been reported in the State. anarchist extremists, attacked white supremacists ral-
lying at the California State Capitol in Sacramento. In
In April 2016, anarchist extremists in Pittsburgh at- February 2016, anarchist extremists attacked Ku Klux
tacked Republican Party supporters by physically as- Klan members holding a rally in Anaheim, California,
saulting attendees and using pepper spray against po- which resulted in three stabbings and seven arrests.
lice and civilians. Extremists attempted to force their
way toward supporters, leading to the arrest of three
individuals, according to a pro-anarchist website.

Anarchist extremists protest against white supremacists in Sacramento, California in June 2016.

$1 million
Property damage caused by anarchist extremists
in Portland, Oregon in the four days following the
US presidential election. Additionally, the Portland
Police incurred roughly $500,000 in overtime costs
during the riots.

How Is Domestic Terrorism Evolving? 18

 Domestic Terrorism Publications in 2016
January 14: July 5:
Militia Standoff in Oregon Mass Shootings in the US,
www.njohsp.gov/analysis/militia-standoff- January 2015 to June 2016
in-oregon www.njohsp.gov/analysis/massshootings

March 28: July 5:

Podcast Episode 11: Podcast Episode 26:
Mass Shootings - Defining a Phenomenon Domestic Terrorism Conference Recap
www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-mass- www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-dt-
shootings conference

April 18: July 18:

Podcast Episode 14: Recent Attacks on Law Enforcement
One-on-One with Lauren Steinberg www.njohsp.gov/analysis/recent-attacks-on-
www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-lauren- law-enforcement
steinberg
July 20:
May 18: Washitaw Nation: Non-Violent in New
Oregon Standoff Bundle Jersey
www.njohsp.gov/analysis/oregonstandoff www.njohsp.gov/analysis/washitawnation

May 31: July 25:

Podcast Episode 20: Podcast Episode 29:
Round Two with J.M. Berger Sovereign Citizen Extremists
www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-jm-berger www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-sovereign-
citizen-extremists
June 6:
Podcast Episode 22: September 26:
One-on-One with J.J. MacNab Overlap Between Black Separatists and
www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-jj-macnab Moorish Sovereign Citizen Extremists
www.njohsp.gov/analysis/overlap-between-
June 28: black-separatists-and-moorish-sovereign-
Podcast Episode 25: citizen-extremists
One-on-One with Thomas Brzozowski
www.njohsp.gov/media/podcast-thomas-
brzozowski

19 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

 What Does 2017
Look Like for ISIS
and AQAP?
 ISIS Losses in Iraq and Syria Could Spur
More External Operations

I n the year ahead, mounting setbacks threaten

to undermine the Islamic State of Iraq and
Syrias (ISIS) position in its primary areas of
operation. In 2016, ISIS suffered a series of territo-
rial and leadership losses, as well as declines in online
To compensate for battlefield and recruitment
losses, ISIS is pushing followers to conduct at-
tacks in the West, including in the United States.
Since October 2016, the group has adopted a refined,
detail-oriented strategy to inspire homegrown violent
media production and foreign fighter recruitment. extremists, in part to remain relevant in the eyes of
followers and financial benefactors.
ISIS has lost approximately 40 percent of its terri-
tory since late 2015. In October 2016, the Iraqi Army Between October and December 2016, ISIS claimed
and its allies began an offensive to retake Mosul, ISISs responsibility for seven inspired attacks in six coun-
territorial stronghold in Iraq. Additionally, in Novem- tries, including most recently at Ohio State University,
ber 2016, the United States and its allies launched a where Abdul Artan drove his vehicle through a crowd
military offensive to push ISIS out of Raqqa, Syria and struck fellow students with a knife, injuring 11.
the groups de facto capital and hub for external op-
erations. In October 2016, ISISs English-language magazine
Rumiyah offered details on appropriate knives for at-
Last year, ISIS lost roughly 120 leaders, including tacks, which body parts to strike, and the types of vic-
second-in-command and head of external operations tims. The November 2016 issue of Rumiyah identified
Abu Mohammad al-Adnani and propaganda chief the Macys Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York
Abu Mohammad al-Furqan. According to the Com- City as an excellent target for a vehicle attack. In the
bating Terrorism Center at West Point, ISIS from same month, ISIS released a video with step-by-step
2015-16 endured a 75-percent decline in online media instructions on how to construct a bomb with house-
production, which includes videos and photographs. hold materials.

According to the US Intelligence Community, from

-
2014-15, ISIS experienced a drop in foreign fighter re-
cruitmentfrom 2,000 fighters arriving in Syria every
month on average to about 50. In May 2016, more-
over, the FBI Director stated that in the first half of
2015, six to 10 people per month traveled from the
United States to join ISIS, but by late 2015 that num-
ber had shrunk to one on average. He added the flow
has remained at this level.

Since mid-2014, about

100 individuals arrest-
ed in the United States
viewed or drew terror-
ist inspiration from ISIS
propaganda.

21 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

AQAP: Using New Jersey Bombings to Inspire Others

I n November 2016, al-Qaida in the Arabi-

an Peninsula (AQAP) cited the bombings in
New Jersey as a model for future attacks in
the United States, the first time the group has
highlighted New Jersey in its English-language
AQAP uses Rahimi as an instructive case study
on how to improve planning and execution in fu-
ture terrorist operations. Inspire discusses the timing,
targets, and methods Rahimi used, offering that a re-
mote-controlled device is more effective than a timer
magazine Inspire. This 16th edition of Inspire also because the operator has more control over detona-
noted the attacks in New York City and Minnesota, tion. The Seaside Park bomb, which was on a timer,
continuing AQAPs longstanding trend of capitalizing detonated in advance of runners gathering for the
on events it views as successful to motivate home- start of the race.
grown violent extremists (HVEs) in the West.
Despite no deaths in New Jersey or New York, Inspire
In the same edition, AQAP referred to the New Jersey claimed the American citizen will definitely feel and
and Minnesota attackersAhmad Rahimi and Dahir live in a state of fear and instability, and the United
Adanas heroes of the Lone Jihad and declared States was exhausted by a single operation.
their efforts as a new form of operations and a new
form of tactics. AQAP remains a persistent threat to the West be-
cause of its proven ability to incorporate, train,
and deploy operatives abroad; the group also has
maintained a territorial foothold in Yemen, giv-
ing it space to plan and finance operations. AQAP
has not attempted to attack the United States since
2012, when a foiled plot against a US-bound airliner,
conceived by the groups chief bombmaker Ibrahim
al-Asiri, was disrupted.

The group last struck in the West in January 2015,

when brothers Cherif and Said Kouachi killed 12 and
injured 11 at the offices of Charlie Hebdo in Paris after
receiving weapons training in Yemen.

While occupying the Yemeni port city of Mukalla

AQAPs Inspire magazine highlighting from 2015 to April 2016, the group reportedly raid-
ed a city bank of $100 million and collected approxi-
the bombings in New Jersey. mately $2 million per day in taxes on goods entering
the port.

AQIS: Threatening New Jersey

In April 2016, a group claiming affiliation with al-Qaida in
the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) threatened an NJOHSP
official on Facebook. One month prior, a Bangladeshi pro-
AQIS Facebook page urged militants in the United States
to attack 10 US-based universities, including Princeton
University (Mercer County).

What Does 2017 Look Like For ISIS and AQAP? 22

 Returning Jihadists Pose Low Threat

N ew Jersey faces a minimal threat from re-

turning jihadists because of the compar-
atively small number of US citizens who
traveled to join ISIS and the likelihood individuals
join other terrorist groups abroad. A comparative
Intelligence sharing with coalition partners helps iden-
tify individuals attempting to travel or return to the
United States from Iraq and Syria. In 2015, authorities
abroad detained New Jersey residents Tairod Pugh
and Nader Saadeh for attempting to join ISIS.
review of the 1980s conflict in Afghanistan, where an
estimated 150 Americans joined the precursor to what
would become al-Qaida, demonstrates that many
American fighters did not return to the United States
because of security or chose to fight elsewhere.

Since 2011, approximately 270 Americans120

of whom have been arrestedeither traveled or
attempted to travel to Iraq and Syria, according
to the National Counterterrorism Center. This is a
low number compared to the estimated 4,200 foreign
fighters from Europe. The number of known Amer-
icans who attempted to travel or successfully traveled
to join ISIS has decreased since last year, from 32 in
2015 to seven in 2016, according to an NJOHSP na- Tairod Pugh (left) and Nader Saadeh (right)
tionwide review.

The number of known Americans who

attempted to travel or successfully trav-
eled to join ISIS decreased from 32 in
2015 to seven in 2016.

23 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

 What
Cyberterrorism Risks
Do We Face?
 Threat Low Despite Kill Lists

T errorist groups do not possess the cyber

capability or intent to damage New Jer-
seys critical infrastructure, but extrem-
ists growing use of encryption and the deep web
makes it difficult to detect and disrupt plotting.
In 2017, ideological hackers acting on behalf of, or
inspired by, terrorist groups will continue to employ
low-level cyber tactics against opportunistic targets
including, but not limited to, website defacements,
malicious code injection, distributed denial-of-service
attacks, and socially engineered account takeovers.
These activities pose little threat to public safety.

The dark web is a subset of the deep web, the larg-

est segment of the Internet that traditional search en-
gines cannot retrieve; it includes password-protected
forums and applications used for illicit communica-
tions. In July 2016, an 18-year-old conducted a mass Pro-Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) hack-
shooting at a mall in Germany using a handgun pur- ing groups attracted considerable attention in
chased through an arms dealer on the deep web. Al- 2016 by releasing two dozen kill lists containing
though this incident had no nexus to a foreign terror- thousands of US citizens personally identifiable
ist organization, it demonstrates the ease with which information, including some 500 in New Jersey.
an individual who otherwise may not be able to legally The NJCCIC, in coordination with federal partners,
acquire a firearm can connect with illegal sellers. has informed the individuals in New Jersey and shared
intelligence with other states on this threat. It is not
A substantial portion of the dark web also hosts illic- aware of any incidents involving physical violence or
it marketplaces, or hidden services, that offer un- additional online harassment against any of these in-
fettered access to narcotics, fraudulent government dividuals.
documents, and weaponry, including explosives and
chemical precursors. The activities of pro-ISIS hackers such as the United
Cyber Caliphate and Cyber Caliphate Army dropped
The New Jersey Cybersecurity and Communi- off in the second half of 2016 despite occasional re-
cations Integration Cell (NJCCIC) assesses that leases of new lists, propaganda, and manuals with in-
terrorists are increasingly using encrypted appli- structions on how to use the dark web and encrypted
cations and the dark web to provide digital safe applications to avoid government detection.
havens for communications, logistics, and fi-
nance. These technologies present major challenges In October 2016, the US Department of Justice
for homeland security and law enforcement in identi- charged 24-year-old Maryland resident Nelash Mo-
fying and disrupting plots before they occur, as well as hamed Das with the intent to kill a US service mem-
conducting follow-on investigations. ber whose name was on a kill list in 2015.

The NJCCIC assesses terrorists are increasingly

using encrypted applications and the dark web to
provide digital safe havens for communications, lo-
gistics, and financing.

25 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

What Can NJOHSP
Do For Me?

Section Title #
 Security Starts With YOU

N JOHSPs Hometown Security Initiative is designed to train and educate Main Street owners
and operators of facilities like restaurants, nightclubs, cafes, theaters, stores, and entertain-
ment venues. Using the Connect-Prepare-Train-Report model, this initiative is intended to inform
the public on global intelligence awareness, likely threat scenarios, protective security, and suspicious activity
reporting. The program is being implemented statewide to increase community resilience, readiness, and overall
security.

Homeland Security starts

with Hometown Security
CONNECT
to establish relationships
Visit njohsp.gov

@NJOHSP Youtube.com/NJOHSP
Facebook.com/NJOHSP Podcast search Intelligence. Unclassified. on iTunes
IG: @njhomelandsecurity LinkedIn search NJOHSP

PREPARE
to keep employees and customers safe
Contact preparedness@njohsp.gov about:
Continuity of Operations Planning Community Resilience Assessments
Business Impact Assessments Facility Self-Assessments
Facility Evacuation Planning Target Hardening
Emergency Employee Notification Procedures Cybersecurity Best Practices, Information
Sharing,and
Sharing andResources
Resources

TRAIN

your staff to deal with potential threats

Contact training@njohsp.gov for free courses on:
Active Shooter Response
Protective Measures
Protecting Critical Infrastructure
Terrorism Awareness Prevention REPORT
Cybersecurity
if you see something suspicious
Visit njohsp.gov/report to learn more about suspicious activity and the 8 signs of terrorism
Call 1-866-4-SAFE-NJ
Email tips@njohsp.gov
Download SAFE-NJ smartphone app

SAFE-NJ app is available for iOS, Android, and

Windows mobile devices for a direct connection to
NJOHSPs, 24-hour Counterterrorism Watch Desk.

Sign up for weekly bulletins at www.njohsp.gov

27 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

What Did NJOHSP
Do in 2016?

Section Title #
 Notable Deliverables

T
his data includes the combined efforts of NJOHSPs four DivisionsIntel-
ligence, Policy and Planning, Cybersecurity, and Administrationfrom July
2015 to June 2016.

Category FY16 FY15 FY14

External Briefings 828 N/A N/A

Written Publications 607 380 N/A

Weekly Recipients of NJOHSP Publications 8,352 3,100 N/A

In-Person Training and Exercises Delivered 257 186 203

NJLearn Training Completionsa 96,752 76,223 91,720

Critical Infrastructure Assessments 136 78 N/A

NJCCIC Members 2,792 980 N/I

Webinars and Podcasts 40 13 N/A

Key
N/A - This metric was not tracked systematically.
N/I - New NJOHSP initiative.

Footnotes
a
NJLearn is an NJOHSP-managed Learning Management System that develops and presents
critical online training for sworn law enforcement and first responders in New Jersey.

29 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

How Does NJOHSP
Define Terrorist
Groups?

Section Title #
 Al-Qaida HAMAS
Al-Qaida is an Islamic extremist organization founded in 1988 HAMAS, an acronym for Harakat al-Muqwama al-Islmiyya,
by Usama Bin Ladin and other Arab foreign fighters who fought or the Islamic Resistance Movement, was founded in 1987 by
against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s. deceased Sheikh Ahmed Yassin as an offshoot of the Palestinian
Muslim Brotherhood.
Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
AQAP is an Islamic extremist organization based in Yemen. It is Hizballah
al-Qaidas most active global affiliate. Hizballah is an Islamic militant group based in Lebanon and al-
lied with Iran.
Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
AQIS is an Islamist extremist group that aims to fight the gov- Homegrown Violent Extremists (HVEs)
ernments of Pakistan, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lan- HVEs are individuals inspired by foreign terrorist organizations
ka to establish an Islamic State. and radicalized in the countries in which they are born, raised,
or reside.
Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
AQIM became al-Qaidas North Africa affiliate in 2006. AQIM Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)
was formerly known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and ISIS, also referred to as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant,
Combat, a splinter group of the Armed Islamic Group, both of the Islamic State, or Daesh, split from al-Qaida in 2014 and es-
which fought against Algerias secular government. tablished its self-proclaimed caliphate, claiming authority over
all Muslims.
Al-Shabaab
Al-Shabaab is an Islamic extremist organization seeking to es- Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT)
tablish an austere version of Islam in Somalia. In addition to LeT is an Islamic extremist organization focused on attacking
Somalia, the group operates in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Tanzania. and expelling Indians from Kashmir, a northern state in India
that borders Pakistan and is home to a Muslim-majority popu-
Anarchist Extremists lation.
Anarchist extremists advocate violence in furtherance of sub-
movements such as anti-racism, anti-capitalism, anti-globalism, Militia Extremists
and environmental extremism. Militia extremists view the federal government as an existential
threat to the rights and freedoms of Americans. They judge
Animal Rights Extremists armed resistance to be necessary to preserve these rights.
The goal of animal rights extremists is to inflict economic dam-
age on individuals or groups that believe all animalshuman Nusrah Front
and non-humanhave equal rights of life and liberty. Animal The Nusrah Frontal Qaidas affiliate in Syria, which is some-
rights extremists are willing to conduct criminal activity to ad- times referred to as Levant Conquest Front or Jabhat Fateh
vance this ideology. al-Shamis focused on overthrowing Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad.
Anti-Abortion Extremists
Anti-abortion extremists are individuals or groups who believe Race-Based Extremists
abortion is unethical and that violence is justified against people Race-based extremists seek to establish the superiority of one
and establishments providing abortion services. racial or ethnic group over others. This includes white suprema-
cist and black separatist extremists.
Anti-Government Extremists
Anti-government extremists believe the US political system is Single-Issue Extremists
illegitimate and force is justified to bring about change. This in- Single-issue extremists participate in a form of violent extrem-
cludes militia extremists and sovereign citizen extremists. ism which has its source in domestic political or economic issues.
This includes animal rights extremists, environmental extremists,
Black Separatist Extremists anti-abortion extremists, and anarchist extremists.
Black separatist extremists are individuals or groups that seek to
establish an independent nation for people of African descent. Sovereign Citizen Extremists
Sovereign citizens throughout the United States view federal,
Boko Haram state, and local governments as illegitimate.
Boko Haram is an Islamic extremist organization based in north-
eastern Nigeria, which pledged allegiance to the Islamic State of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Iraq and Syria in March 2015. TTP is an Islamic extremist organization seeking to overthrow
Pakistans government and expel US forces from Afghanistan.
Environmental Extremists
Environmental extremists view manmade threats to the environ- White Supremacist Extremists
ment as so severe that violence and property damage are justified White supremacist extremists believe in the inherent superiority
to prevent further destruction. of the white race. They seek to establish dominance over non-
whites through violence.

31 2017 Terrorism Threat Assessment

 2017
Terrorism Threat Assessment

NJOHSP New Jersey Office of Homeland

Security and Preparedness
 UNCLASSIFIED

New Jersey Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness

UNCLASSIFIED