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Running Head: EXPERIMENTALLY PROVEN BIRTHDAY PARADOX

EXPERIMENTALLY PROVEN BIRTHDAY PARADOX

Writing for Engineer
Kai Hang Chen
City College of New York
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EXPERIMENTALLY PROVEN BIRTHDAY PARADOX

EXPERIMENTALLY PROVEN BIRTHDAY PARADOX

Abstract

Birthday paradox states theres 50% chance of two people sharing same birthday among

23 people. To prove this theory to be true, I wrote 100 International High School at

Prospect Heights seniors birthdays on 100 index cards to conduct ten trails experiment.

The experiment is simple because, for each trail, I randomly picked 23 index cards and

flip-over to compare each birthday. After the ten trails, 8 out of 10 trails contains at least

one pair of same birthday, and two trails show otherwise. Therefore, this experiment

indicates that birthday paradox is a real theory.

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EXPERIMENTALLY PROVEN BIRTHDAY PARADOX

Introduction

The birthday paradox, also known as birthday problem is an interesting

probability theory experiment. The theory states that in a random group of 23 people,

there is about a 50 percent chance that two people have the same birthday. (Buddies,

2012). It seems impossible at first glance, because there are 366 different birthdays in a

year if we included February 29. Its logical to assume 23 people is too small of a group

to think two individuals will share the same birthday out of 365 possible days to be born.

(DreamBox Learn, 2009). Well, thats the reason it seems like a paradox. Lets admit

that humans are self-centered and we automatically compare our birthdays to others

("Understanding the Birthday Paradox"). In a room with 22 other people, if a person

compares his or her birthday with the birthdays of the other people it would make for

only 22 comparisonsonly 22 chances for people to share the same birthday. (Buddies,

2012). However, in a room of 23 people, we can much more than 22 comparisons, in fact,

we would have 253 comparisons. While the first person has 22 comparisons to make,

the second person was already compared to the first person, so there are only 21

comparisons to make. The third person then has 20 comparisons, the fourth person has 19

comparisons, and so on. If you add up all possible comparisons (22 + 21 + 20 + 19 ... + 1)

the sum is 253 comparisons, or combinations (Science Buddies Staff). It is important to

understand the problem scenario, which is the chance of two people would share the

same birthday among 23 people, not the chance of someone would share the same

birthday with you among the 23 people.

Even though, we can make 253 comparisons among 23 randomly chosen people.

The bigger problem is how do we the possibility is 50%? First, we can compute the
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EXPERIMENTALLY PROVEN BIRTHDAY PARADOX

possibility of two people dont share the same birthday by

1 364 1
1 = =0.997260=99.7260 .
365 365 365

is the chance of two people are sharing the same birthday in 365 different birthdays and

364
365

is the chance of two people are not sharing the same birthday? Then, we going to make

253 comparisons and having them all be different. We use exponents to find the

probability ("Understanding the Birthday Paradox").

253
364
( )
365
=0.4995=49.95 .

49.95% is the chance of two people from 23 people are not sharing the same birthdays.

Then, the chance of matching birthday is 100% - 49.95% = 50.05%. Theres a formula

for birthday paradox, which is

C ( n ,2 ) n ( n1)
364 364
p ( n )=1 ( )
365 ( )
=1
365
2

("Understanding the Birthday Paradox"). Then is the number of people that we randomly

chose. My hypothesis is, I believe that I will prove the birthday paradox true because

when I got the list of the 100 birthdays that I collected from my worksite, I found that

there are at least five pairs of same birthdays. Therefore, if I randomly pick 23 people

from the list, I would have a good chance of at least two people having the same birthday.

Materials and Methods

The significant material for this lab is peoples birthday. I collected 100 high
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EXPERIMENTALLY PROVEN BIRTHDAY PARADOX

school seniors birthdays from my worksite, International High School at Prospect

Heights. To protect students privacy, I wont put their names in this lab report. I would

rename each student by numbers, such as Student #1. Student #2 etc. Then, 100 White

Index Cards to write down their birthdays. A piece of white paper to record result from

each trail. Finally, a camera or smartphone to take a picture of the results.

To process the experiment, it is important to collect as many birthdays as possible

from various sources. Then, I wrote the birthdays that I gathered on the 100 white index

cards. Then, I made a table to record the data. You can see the table in the result section;

you dont have to follow the same format for the table. Then, I shuffled the 100 white

index cards face down, and I randomly picked 23 cards from the pile. Then, I flipped over

the 23 index cards that I picked from the pile and compared for matched birthdays. Then,

I recorded the findings in my table and took a picture. Finally, I put 23 cards back to the

pile and repeated the same process for the rest of 9 trails.

Result

The first six trials proven birthday paradox true because I picked one pair of matched

birthday for each trail. However, I didnt choose a matched birthday index cards in trial 7

and trial 8. Finally, I picked two pairs of matched birthday on trial 10.

Table 1: 10 trials of picking same birthday among 23 index cards

Trial # of Any How If Matched, their Student # Proven or
Cards Matching Many birthday is Disproven
Picked Birthdays Pairs

1 23 Yes 1 Pair 06/06/1999 & Student #1 Proven

06/06/1997 & Student
#47

2 23 Yes 1 Pair 05/16/1997 & Student #26 Proven

05/16/1998 & Student
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EXPERIMENTALLY PROVEN BIRTHDAY PARADOX

#68

3 23 Yes 1 Pair 07/13/1998 & 07/13/ Student #54 Proven

1998 & Student
#46

4 23 Yes 1 Pair 07/13/1998 & Student #54 Proven

07/13/1998 & Student
#46

5 23 Yes 1 Pair 01/31/1999 & Student #24 Proven

01/31/2001 & Student
#80

6 23 Yes 1 Pair 10/09/1998 Student #49 Proven

& 10/09/1998 & Student
#50

7 23 No N/A N/A N/A Disproven

8 23 No N/A N/A N/A Disproven

9 23 Yes 1 Pair 02/27/1996 & Student #4 Proven

02/27/1996 & Student
#96

10 23 Yes 2 Pairs 08/15/1996 & Student 91 Proven

08/15/1996, & Student
09/15/1998 & 3.
09/15/1997 Student 13
& Student
23
The data from Table are visually graphed in Figure 1.
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EXPERIMENTALLY PROVEN BIRTHDAY PARADOX

Figure 1: Over the 10 trials, the possibility of having at least one pair of matched
birthday among 23 randomly chosen people is 8/10.
Discussion
The problem that I was investigating throughout this experiment was, How can

the Birthday Paradox be tested? My hypothesis is proven correct by the test. My original

hypothesis is I believe that I will show the birthday paradox true because when I got the

list of the 100 birthdays that I collected from my worksite, I found that there are at least

five pairs of same birthdays. Therefore, if I randomly pick 23 people from the list, I

would have a good chance of at least two people having the same birthday. My

hypothesis is correct and proven the birthday paradox is a real theory. My graph shows

that over the ten trails of the experiments that I conducted, the chance of picked two

people shared the same birthday in 23 people is 8/10. Only in trail 7 and trail eight didnt

have the matched birthday. Well, it is acceptable because the birthday paradox states that

23 people have 50% chance of 2 people would have the same birthday, which means that

theres also 50% chance that none of the people would share the same birthday among the

23 people. The formula proves this above. Additionally, there are two pairs of matched

birthdays in trail 10. Therefore, the more trails that I do, the more data that I will be
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EXPERIMENTALLY PROVEN BIRTHDAY PARADOX

provided to prove birthday paradox to be right.

In this lab, I only conducted the trials for the possibility of 2 people from 23

randomly chosen people would have the same birthday, because thats the minimum

amount of people to reach 50%. To increase the possibility, we must enhance some

individuals. If I increase the number to 75, we can have 99%, and thats the least amount

of people to have 99% chance. My friend conducted one trail for 75 people, but I didnt

include it in the data table because my friend performed the trail. The result was

convicting because he found eight matched pairs among 75 people. The possibility would

stay 99% until the amount reaches to 366 or 367 if we included February 29. To prove

that is true, it is important to know Pigeonhole Principle. Pigeonhole Principle states that

If m pigeons are in n holes and m > n, then at least two pigeons are in the same hole. In

fact, at least pigeons

m

n

must be in the same hole (Shi, 2009). Similar application to birthday paradox, we

assume that in a room of 366 people in a room and everyone has different birthdays.

Then, person 367 enters the room and his/her birthday must matched to one person in the

room. From the experiment, I learned that birthday paradox is harder than it seemed

because it required complex thinking and I proved the theory by 8/10 trails.
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EXPERIMENTALLY PROVEN BIRTHDAY PARADOX

References

Buddies, S. (2012, March 29). Probability and the Birthday Paradox. Retrieved March 21,

2017,

From https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/bring-science-home-probability-

birthday-paradox/

DreamBox_Learn. (2009, October 05). October 5th is the Most Popular Birthday! The

Birthday

Paradox Explained. Retrieved March 22, 2017, from

http://www.dreambox.com/blog/october-5th-is-the-most-popular-birthday-the-

birthday-p Aradox-explained

Science Buddies Staff. "The Birthday Paradox" Science Buddies. Science Buddies, 20

June

2014. Web. 21 Mar. 2017 <http://www.sciencebuddies.org/science-fair-

projects/project_ideas/Math_p007.shtml>

Shi, P. (2009, September 01). The Pigeonhole Principle Simple but immensely powerful.

Retrieved March 21, 2017, from The Pigeonhole Principle Simple but immensely

powerful

Understanding the Birthday Paradox. (n.d.). Retrieved March 22, 2017, from

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-

paradox/#Appendix_A_Repeated_Multiplication_Explanation_Geeky_Math_Aler