Probability

Load No. of specimen No. of Failure Failure Rate of failure Model P

10 400 17 0.0425 0.019913638 0.030484367
30 500 49 0.098 0.045918507 0.05244824
60 450 112 0.248888889 0.116618431 0.114481202
85 600 275 0.458333333 0.214754922 0.207698702
95 550 310 0.563636364 0.26409531 0.258057494
110 350 253 0.722857143 0.338699192 0.347069991

OPTIMAL a -3.74234653328898 Cumulative

SOLUTION b 0.02827639142593 % Error

Yn DATA MODEL
ITERATIONS Probability
a b Load of failure P
-3.50000000000000 0.02500000000000 10 0.019913638 0.037326887
-3.50000000000000 0.02500000000000 30 0.045918507 0.06008665
-3.50000000000000 0.02500000000000 60 0.116618431 0.119202922
1
-3.50000000000000 0.02500000000000 85 0.214754922 0.201813222
-3.50000000000000 0.02500000000000 95 0.26409531 0.245085013
-3.50000000000000 0.02500000000000 110 0.338699192 0.320821301
-3.75514856173776 0.02842569223537 10 0.019913638 0.030151897
-3.75514856173776 0.02842569223537 30 0.045918507 0.052036145
-3.75514856173776 0.02842569223537 60 0.116618431 0.114092095
2
-3.75514856173776 0.02842569223537 85 0.214754922 0.207680361
-3.75514856173776 0.02842569223537 95 0.26409531 0.258322099
-3.75514856173776 0.02842569223537 110 0.338699192 0.347891022
-3.74132752671254 0.02826591538421 10 0.019913638 0.030511399
-3.74132752671254 0.02826591538421 30 0.045918507 0.052483274
-3.74132752671254 0.02826591538421 60 0.116618431 0.11452079
3
-3.74132752671254 0.02826591538421 85 0.214754922 0.207719856
-3.74132752671254 0.02826591538421 95 0.26409531 0.258062048
-3.74132752671254 0.02826591538421 110 0.338699192 0.347039771
-3.74242159173473 0.02827716893967 10 0.019913638 0.030482378
-3.74242159173473 0.02827716893967 30 0.045918507 0.052445669
-3.74242159173473 0.02827716893967 60 0.116618431 0.114478323
4
-3.74242159173473 0.02827716893967 85 0.214754922 0.207697226
-3.74242159173473 0.02827716893967 95 0.26409531 0.258057266
-3.74242159173473 0.02827716893967 110 0.338699192 0.347072363
 -3.74234097164645 0.02827633384176 10 0.019913638 0.030484514
-3.74234097164645 0.02827633384176 30 0.045918507 0.05244843
-3.74234097164645 0.02827633384176 60 0.116618431 0.114481416
5
-3.74234097164645 0.02827633384176 85 0.214754922 0.207698812
-3.74234097164645 0.02827633384176 95 0.26409531 0.258057512
-3.74234097164645 0.02827633384176 110 0.338699192 0.347069816
-3.74234694522534 0.02827639569117 10 0.019913638 0.030484356
-3.74234694522534 0.02827639569117 30 0.045918507 0.052448226
-3.74234694522534 0.02827639569117 60 0.116618431 0.114481186
6
-3.74234694522534 0.02827639569117 85 0.214754922 0.207698694
-3.74234694522534 0.02827639569117 95 0.26409531 0.258057493
-3.74234694522534 0.02827639569117 110 0.338699192 0.347070004
-3.74234650277705 0.02827639111000 10 0.019913638 0.030484367
-3.74234650277705 0.02827639111000 30 0.045918507 0.052448241
-3.74234650277705 0.02827639111000 60 0.116618431 0.114481203
7
-3.74234650277705 0.02827639111000 85 0.214754922 0.207698703
-3.74234650277705 0.02827639111000 95 0.26409531 0.258057494
-3.74234650277705 0.02827639111000 110 0.338699192 0.34706999
-3.74234653554898 0.02827639144933 10 0.019913638 0.030484367
-3.74234653554898 0.02827639144933 30 0.045918507 0.05244824
-3.74234653554898 0.02827639144933 60 0.116618431 0.114481202
8
-3.74234653554898 0.02827639144933 85 0.214754922 0.207698702
-3.74234653554898 0.02827639144933 95 0.26409531 0.258057494
-3.74234653554898 0.02827639144933 110 0.338699192 0.347069991
-3.74234653312158 0.02827639142419 10 0.019913638 0.030484367
-3.74234653312158 0.02827639142419 30 0.045918507 0.05244824
-3.74234653312158 0.02827639142419 60 0.116618431 0.114481202
9
-3.74234653312158 0.02827639142419 85 0.214754922 0.207698702
-3.74234653312158 0.02827639142419 95 0.26409531 0.258057494
-3.74234653312158 0.02827639142419 110 0.338699192 0.347069991
-3.74234653330138 0.02827639142606 10 0.019913638 0.030484367
-3.74234653330138 0.02827639142606 30 0.045918507 0.05244824
-3.74234653330138 0.02827639142606 60 0.116618431 0.114481202
10
-3.74234653330138 0.02827639142606 85 0.214754922 0.207698702
-3.74234653330138 0.02827639142606 95 0.26409531 0.258057494
-3.74234653330138 0.02827639142606 110 0.338699192 0.347069991
-3.74234653328806 0.02827639142592 10 0.019913638 0.030484367
-3.74234653328806 0.02827639142592 30 0.045918507 0.05244824
-3.74234653328806 0.02827639142592 60 0.116618431 0.114481202
11
-3.74234653328806 0.02827639142592 85 0.214754922 0.207698702
-3.74234653328806 0.02827639142592 95 0.26409531 0.258057494
-3.74234653328806 0.02827639142592 110 0.338699192 0.347069991
-3.74234653328905 0.02827639142593 10 0.019913638 0.030484367
-3.74234653328905 0.02827639142593 30 0.045918507 0.05244824
-3.74234653328905 0.02827639142593 60 0.116618431 0.114481202
12
12
-3.74234653328905 0.02827639142593 85 0.214754922 0.207698702
-3.74234653328905 0.02827639142593 95 0.26409531 0.258057494
-3.74234653328905 0.02827639142593 110 0.338699192 0.347069991
-3.74234653328897 0.02827639142593 10 0.019913638 0.030484367
-3.74234653328897 0.02827639142593 30 0.045918507 0.05244824
-3.74234653328897 0.02827639142593 60 0.116618431 0.114481202
13
-3.74234653328897 0.02827639142593 85 0.214754922 0.207698702
-3.74234653328897 0.02827639142593 95 0.26409531 0.258057494
-3.74234653328897 0.02827639142593 110 0.338699192 0.347069991
-3.74234653328898 0.02827639142593 10 0.019913638 0.030484367
-3.74234653328898 0.02827639142593 30 0.045918507 0.05244824
-3.74234653328898 0.02827639142593 60 0.116618431 0.114481202
14
-3.74234653328898 0.02827639142593 85 0.214754922 0.207698702
-3.74234653328898 0.02827639142593 95 0.26409531 0.258057494
-3.74234653328898 0.02827639142593 110 0.338699192 0.347069991
-3.74234653328898 0.02827639142593 10 0.019913638 0.030484367
-3.74234653328898 0.02827639142593 30 0.045918507 0.05244824
-3.74234653328898 0.02827639142593 60 0.116618431 0.114481202
15
-3.74234653328898 0.02827639142593 85 0.214754922 0.207698702
-3.74234653328898 0.02827639142593 95 0.26409531 0.258057494
-3.74234653328898 0.02827639142593 110 0.338699192 0.347069991
 0.4

0.35

Absolute Error 0.3

0.0106
0.0065 0.25
0.0021
0.2 Column E
0.0071
Column F
0.0060 0.15
0.0084
0.1
0.0407
0.05
4.0702523626
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Z
ZT
dP/da dP/db
0.0359335908 0.3593359083 0.0359335908 0.0564762446 0.104993585
0.0564762446 1.6942873393 0.3593359083 1.6942873393 6.299615124
0.1049935854 6.2996151242
0.1610846456 13.6921948744
0.1850183495 17.5767431997
0.2178949938 23.9684493138
0.0292427597 0.292427597 0.0292427597 0.0493283849 0.101075089
0.0493283849 1.4798515463 0.292427597 1.4798515463 6.06450533
0.1010750888 6.0645053304
0.1645492288 13.9866844479
0.1915917923 18.2012202723
0.2268628589 24.9549144748
0.0295804533 0.2958045333 0.0295804533 0.0497287798 0.101405778
0.0497287798 1.4918633932 0.2958045333 1.4918633932 6.084346703
0.1014057784 6.0843467029
0.1645723176 13.9886469945
0.1914660274 18.1892725985
0.2266031684 24.9263485233
0.0295532027 0.295532027 0.0295532027 0.0496951206 0.101373036
0.0496951206 1.4908536183 0.295532027 1.4908536183 6.082382171
0.1013730362 6.0823821714
0.1645590885 13.9875225254
0.1914637133 18.1890527641
0.2266131379 24.9274451734
0.0295552083 0.2955520834 0.0295552083 0.0496975924 0.101375421
0.0496975924 1.4909277729 0.2955520834 1.4909277729 6.082525277
0.1013754213 6.0825252775
0.1645600156 13.987601327
0.1914638324 18.1890640809
0.2266123588 24.9273594717
0.0295550597 0.2955505972 0.0295550597 0.0496974092 0.101375244
0.0496974092 1.4909222772 0.2955505972 1.4909222772 6.082514666
0.1013752444 6.0825146662
0.1645599467 13.987595469
0.1914638234 18.1890632193
0.2266124164 24.9273657988
0.0295550707 0.2955507073 0.0295550707 0.0496974228 0.101375258
0.0496974228 1.4909226842 0.2955507073 1.4909226842 6.082515452
0.1013752575 6.0825154521
0.1645599518 13.9875959028
0.191463824 18.189063283
0.2266124121 24.9273653301
0.0295550699 0.2955506991 0.0295550699 0.0496974218 0.101375257
0.0496974218 1.4909226541 0.2955506991 1.4909226541 6.082515394
0.1013752566 6.0825153939
0.1645599514 13.9875958707
0.191463824 18.1890632783
0.2266124124 24.9273653648
0.02955507 0.2955506997 0.02955507 0.0496974219 0.101375257
0.0496974219 1.4909226563 0.2955506997 1.4909226563 6.082515398
0.1013752566 6.0825153982
0.1645599514 13.9875958731
0.191463824 18.1890632787
0.2266124124 24.9273653622
0.02955507 0.2955506997 0.02955507 0.0496974219 0.101375257
0.0496974219 1.4909226562 0.2955506997 1.4909226562 6.082515398
0.1013752566 6.0825153979
0.1645599514 13.9875958729
0.191463824 18.1890632786
0.2266124124 24.9273653624
0.02955507 0.2955506997 0.02955507 0.0496974219 0.101375257
0.0496974219 1.4909226562 0.2955506997 1.4909226562 6.082515398
0.1013752566 6.0825153979
0.1645599514 13.9875958729
0.191463824 18.1890632786
0.2266124124 24.9273653624
0.02955507 0.2955506997 0.02955507 0.0496974219 0.101375257
0.0496974219 1.4909226562 0.2955506997 1.4909226562 6.082515398
0.1013752566 6.0825153979
0.1645599514 13.9875958729
0.191463824 18.1890632786
0.2266124124 24.9273653624
0.02955507 0.2955506997 0.02955507 0.0496974219 0.101375257
0.0496974219 1.4909226562 0.2955506997 1.4909226562 6.082515398
0.1013752566 6.0825153979
0.1645599514 13.9875958729
0.191463824 18.1890632786
0.2266124124 24.9273653624
0.02955507 0.2955506997 0.02955507 0.0496974219 0.101375257
0.0496974219 1.4909226562 0.2955506997 1.4909226562 6.082515398
0.1013752566 6.0825153979
0.1645599514 13.9875958729
0.191463824 18.1890632786
0.2266124124 24.9273653624
0.02955507 0.2955506997 0.02955507 0.0496974219 0.101375257
0.0496974219 1.4909226562 0.2955506997 1.4909226562 6.082515398
0.1013752566 6.0825153979
0.1645599514 13.9875958729
0.191463824 18.1890632786
0.2266124124 24.9273653624
 Column E
Column F

120

ZT ZTZ (ZTZ)-1

0.161085 0.185018 0.217895 0.1231627 11.45024588 184.22911945 -1.894296442

13.69219 17.57674 23.96845 11.450246 1113.589547 -1.894296442 0.0203756942

0.164549 0.191592 0.226863 0.1287552 12.14456629 213.69954587 -2.183275379

13.98668 18.20122 24.95491 12.144566 1188.713217 -2.183275379 0.0231468214

0.164572 0.191466 0.226603 0.1287234 12.13308786 211.73638626 -2.163952117

13.98865 18.18927 24.92635 12.133088 1187.187165 -2.163952117 0.0229579817

0.164559 0.191464 0.226613 0.1287111 12.13261573 211.91171153 -2.165681303

13.98752 18.18905 24.92745 12.132616 1187.175306 -2.165681303 0.0229750222
0.16456 0.191464 0.226612 0.1287119 12.13264473 211.89887371 -2.165554701
13.9876 18.18906 24.92736 12.132645 1187.175624 -2.165554701 0.0229737751

0.16456 0.191464 0.226612 0.1287118 12.13264255 211.89982531 -2.165564085

13.9876 18.18906 24.92737 12.132643 1187.175598 -2.165564085 0.0229738676

0.16456 0.191464 0.226612 0.1287118 12.13264271 211.89975483 -2.16556339

13.9876 18.18906 24.92737 12.132643 1187.175599 -2.16556339 0.0229738607

0.16456 0.191464 0.226612 0.1287118 12.1326427 211.89976005 -2.165563442

13.9876 18.18906 24.92737 12.132643 1187.175599 -2.165563442 0.0229738612

0.16456 0.191464 0.226612 0.1287118 12.1326427 211.89975967 -2.165563438

13.9876 18.18906 24.92737 12.132643 1187.175599 -2.165563438 0.0229738612

0.16456 0.191464 0.226612 0.1287118 12.1326427 211.89975969 -2.165563438

13.9876 18.18906 24.92737 12.132643 1187.175599 -2.165563438 0.0229738612

0.16456 0.191464 0.226612 0.1287118 12.1326427 211.89975969 -2.165563438

13.9876 18.18906 24.92737 12.132643 1187.175599 -2.165563438 0.0229738612

0.16456 0.191464 0.226612 0.1287118 12.1326427 211.89975969 -2.165563438

13.9876 18.18906 24.92737 12.132643 1187.175599 -2.165563438 0.0229738612
0.16456 0.191464 0.226612 0.1287118 12.1326427 211.89975969 -2.165563438
13.9876 18.18906 24.92737 12.132643 1187.175599 -2.165563438 0.0229738612

0.16456 0.191464 0.226612 0.1287118 12.1326427 211.89975969 -2.165563438

13.9876 18.18906 24.92737 12.132643 1187.175599 -2.165563438 0.0229738612

0.16456 0.191464 0.226612 0.1287118 12.1326427 211.89975969 -2.165563438

13.9876 18.18906 24.92737 12.132643 1187.175599 -2.165563438 0.0229738612
 D ZTD ((ZTZ)-1)(ZTD) Yn+1

-0.01741 0.0078002267 -0.255148561738 -3.7551485617378

-0.01417 0.8933012964 0.003425692235 0.0284256922354
-0.00258
0.012942
0.01901
0.017878
-0.01024 -0.00016089 0.013821035025 -3.7413275267125
-0.00612 -0.022078379 -0.000159776851 0.0282659153842
0.002526
0.007075
0.005773
-0.00919
-0.0106 -4.291359E-06 -0.001094065022 -3.7424215917347
-0.00656 8.568956E-05 0.000011253555 0.0282771689397
0.002098
0.007035
0.006033
-0.00834
-0.01057 2.447743E-07 0.000080620088 -3.7423409716465
-0.00653 -1.327506E-05 -0.000000835098 0.0282763338418
0.00214
0.007058
0.006038
-0.00837
-0.01057 -1.847375E-08 -0.000005973579 -3.7423469452253
-0.00653 9.508013E-07 0.000000061849 0.0282763956912
0.002137
0.007056
0.006038
-0.00837
-0.01057 1.36664E-09 0.000000442448 -3.7423465027771
-0.00653 -7.058549E-08 -0.000000004581 0.0282763911100
0.002137
0.007056
0.006038
-0.00837
-0.01057 -1.01235E-10 -0.000000032772 -3.7423465355490
-0.00653 5.227399E-09 0.000000000339 0.0282763914493
0.002137
0.007056
0.006038
-0.00837
-0.01057 7.498355E-12 0.000000002427 -3.7423465331216
-0.00653 -3.871952E-10 -0.000000000025 0.0282763914242
0.002137
0.007056
0.006038
-0.00837
-0.01057 -5.554238E-13 -0.000000000180 -3.7423465333014
-0.00653 2.867634E-11 0.000000000002 0.0282763914261
0.002137
0.007056
0.006038
-0.00837
-0.01057 4.113355E-14 0.000000000013 -3.7423465332881
-0.00653 -2.1248E-12 0.000000000000 0.0282763914259
0.002137
0.007056
0.006038
-0.00837
-0.01057 -3.057884E-15 -0.000000000001 -3.7423465332891
-0.00653 1.56708E-13 0.000000000000 0.0282763914259
0.002137
0.007056
0.006038
-0.00837
-0.01057 1.988427E-16 0.000000000000 -3.7423465332890
-0.00653 -1.437739E-14 0.000000000000 0.0282763914259
0.002137
0.007056
0.006038
-0.00837
-0.01057 1.517883E-18 0.000000000000 -3.7423465332890
-0.00653 2.553513E-15 0.000000000000 0.0282763914259
0.002137
0.007056
0.006038
-0.00837
-0.01057 2.385245E-17 0.000000000000 -3.7423465332890
-0.00653 2.275957E-15 0.000000000000 0.0282763914259
0.002137
0.007056
0.006038
-0.00837
-0.01057 2.385245E-17 0.000000000000 -3.7423465332890
-0.00653 2.275957E-15 0.000000000000 0.0282763914259
0.002137
0.007056
0.006038
-0.00837
 NEWTON-RAPHSON METHOD

Iterations x1 x2 J J-1 -F J-1(- F)

2 4 0.1 0.4 -1 -0.1

1 1 2
2 -1 0.2 -0.2 0 -0.2
1.8 3.6 0.120773 0.434783 -0.05 -0.01039
2 0.9 1.8
1.8 -1 0.217391 -0.21739 -0.01 -0.0087
1.779227 3.582609 0.122647 0.439395 -0.00018 -7E-05
3 0.889614 1.791304
1.779227 -1 0.218216 -0.21822 -0.00011 -1.65E-05
1.779087 3.582576 0.122657 0.439429 -5.16E-09 -2.78E-09
4 0.889544 1.791288
1.779087 -1 0.218218 -0.21822 -4.89E-09 -5.94E-11
1.779087 3.582576 0.122657 0.439429 0 0
5 0.889544 1.791288
1.779087 -1 0.218218 -0.21822 0 0
 Newton Raphson Method
Iteration Xn g(X) g'(X) Xn+1 delX
1 0.1 -0.74336 2.701171 0.3752 0.2752
2 0.3752 -0.08057 1.725095 0.421904 0.046705
3 0.421904 0.008519 1.527125 0.416326 -0.00558
4 0.416326 -0.00172 1.550522 0.417434 0.001108
5 0.417434 0.000324 1.545867 0.417224 -0.00021
6 0.417224 -6.2E-05 1.546748 0.417264 4.01E-05
7 0.417264 1.18E-05 1.546579 0.417257 -7.65E-06
8 0.417257 -2.26E-06 1.546611 0.417258 1.46E-06
9 0.417258 4.31E-07 1.546605 0.417258 -2.78E-07

Minima -0.3076