Reliance Industries: CMP: INR1,077 TP: INR1,057 (-2%)

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 18

16 January 2017

3QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas

Reliance Industries
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
27,288 8,413
CMP: INR1,077 TP: INR1,057 (-2%) Neutral
Bloomberg RIL IN Reliance Industries’ (RIL) reported 3QFY17 standalone EBITDA lower than our estimates
Equity Shares (m) 3,242.4 at INR106b (+3% YoY and flat QoQ) due to lower than estimated GRM and higher opex.
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 3,520 / 52.0 PAT at INR80b (+11% YoY and +4% QoQ) was in line with our estimates due to higher
52-Week Range (INR) 1129 / 889 other income and lower interest cost. Jio (telecom) has garnered 72.4m subscribers and
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -1/8/-11 commercial launch will depend on resolution of interconnect issues. Management guides
Avg Val, INRm 3865 for further delays in ROGC (mechanical completion by 1QFY18) and petcoke gasifier
Free float (%) 54.9 projects (mechanical completion by June 2017). Key drivers for stock performance in the
near term would be core projects commissioning and subscriber ramp-up and ARPU in
Financials & Valuations (INR b) telecom.
Y/E March 2016 2017E 2018E Marginal decline in EBITDA: Refining EBIT stood at INR61.3b (-3% YoY, +4% QoQ).
Net Sales 2,331.6 2,376.9 2,756.6 3QFY17 GRM stood at USD10.8/bbl (-6% YoY, +7% QoQ). Petchem EBIT at INR33.6b
EBITDA 401.4 421.3 468.0 (+30% YoY, -3% QoQ) with EBIT margin at 15.5% (16.3% in 2QFY17) was lower QoQ
Net Profit 274.2 292.3 318.2 primarily due to demonetization affecting demand.
Adj. EPS (INR) 93.0 99.2 107.9 Expect further delay in gasifier; voice issue solution to decide Jio comm. launch
EPS Gr. (%) 20.5 6.6 8.9  ROGC by 1QFY18: ROGC has achieved 96% mechanical completion and is
BV/Sh. (INR) 814.7 899.7 992.1 expected to be 100% complete by 1QFY18. Expect ramp up to start from
RoE (%) 12.0 11.6 11.4
2QFY18. Petcoke gasifier is expected to be mechanically completed by June
RoCE (%) 8.9 9.2 9.6
2017. We expect another 3-6months for full utilization.
Payout (%) 13.5 14.4 14.4
 Jio capex reaches INR 1.71t: Capex to date has reached INR1.71t. The
Valuations
P/E (x) 11.6 10.9 10.0 company recently announced additional INR 300b. Jio’s user base has reached
P/BV (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1 72.4m in December 2016. Commercial launch will be after resolution of voice
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.4 8.9 7.2 interconnect issues. The company still sees 2-20% call failure.
EV/Sales (x) 1.8 1.6 1.2  Domestic E&P continues to shrink: KG-D6 gas prodn at 7.5mmscmd (-30% YoY
and -2.6% QoQ) and shale at 37.5bcfe (-31% YoY and -9.4% QoQ). KG field
development is on cards but subject to arbitration resolution and plan
Estimate change approvals.
TP change  3QFY17 capex at INR380b; cons. net debt at INR1,943b (vs INR1,804b in

Rating change
2QFY17).
 Valuation and view: On FY19E basis, the stock trades at 9.5x adj. SA EPS of
INR113 and EV/EBITDA of 6.3x. Our SOTP-based fair value stands at
INR1,057/share. Maintain Neutral.
Standalone - Quarterly Earning Model (INR Million)
Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17E 3QFY17 Var v/s
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QE Est. Est. (%)
Net Sales 658,170 608,170 565,670 499,570 534,960 595,770 618,060 628,122 2,331,580 2,376,912 640,982 -3.6
YoY Change (%) -31.7 -37.0 -29.5 -10.9 -18.7 -2.0 9.3 25.7 -29.1 1.9 13.3
Total Expenditure 565,100 509,840 462,950 392,300 426,790 490,220 512,020 526,583 1,930,190 1,955,613 521,258 -1.8
EBITDA 93,070 98,330 102,720 107,270 108,170 105,550 106,040 101,539 401,390 421,299 119,725 -11.4
Margins (%) 14.1 16.2 18.2 21.5 20.2 17.7 17.2 16.2 17.2 17.7 18.7
Depreciation 22,650 23,720 24,050 25,240 19,500 20,290 20,770 25,613 95,660 86,173 25,613 -18.9
Interest 5,970 6,940 6,090 5,540 9,240 6,330 9,310 10,820 24,540 35,700 10,820 -14.0
Other Income 18,180 16,170 22,890 18,580 20,330 22,800 30,250 25,844 75,820 99,224 22,000 37.5
PBT 82,630 83,840 95,470 95,070 99,760 101,730 106,210 90,950 357,010 398,650 105,291 0.9
Tax 19,450 18,230 23,290 21,870 24,280 24,690 25,990 20,009 82,840 94,969 25,270 2.8
Rate (%) 24 22 24 23 24 24 24 22 23 24 24
Adj PAT 63,180 65,610 72,180 73,200 75,480 77,040 80,220 70,941 274,170 303,681 80,021 0.2
YoY Change (%) 11.8 14.2 41.9 17.3 19.5 17.4 11.1 -3.1 20.7 10.8 10.9
Margins (%) 9.6 10.8 12.8 14.7 14.1 12.9 13.0 11.3 11.8 12.8 12.5
Key Assumptions
Refining throughput (mm 16.6 17.1 18.0 17.8 16.8 18.0 17.8 17.0 69.5 69.6 17.0
GRM (USD/bbl) 10.4 10.6 11.5 10.8 11.5 10.1 10.8 9.0 10.8 10.4 11.3
Petchem EBITDA/tonne ( 273.2 259.9 260.8 271.6 303.8 314.4 329.4 250.0 266.3 299.4 250.0
Petchem volumes (mmt) 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.5 8.2 8.4 2.5
E: MOSL Estimates
Swarnendu Bhushan (Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale (Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Reliance Industries

Exhibit 1: RIL segment wise performance snapshot (standalone)


FY15 FY16 FY17 3QFY17 (%)
In INRb 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q YoY QoQ
Segmental Revenues
Petchem 237 249 213 201 196 199 180 195 194 213 217 20.3 1.9
Refining 910 918 732 486 614 513 496 403 489 518 532 7.4 2.7
Oil & Gas 16 14 13 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 -37.2 -11.1
Others 2 2 4 4 2 3 3 4 2 3 3 14.7 -5.2
Total 1,165 1,183 962 703 823 726 688 611 694 741 758 10.2 2.3
Segmental EBITDA
Petchem 26 32 29 30 33 35 36 38 38 44 44 21.2 -1.5
Refining 46 47 40 54 59 62 71 72 74 67 70 -2.1 3.8
Oil & Gas 10 8 8 7 8 8 8 3 3 3 1 -87.7 -61.4
Total 82 88 78 91 101 104 116 114 115 114 114 -1 0.3
EBITDA Margin (%)
Petchem 11 13 13.8 14.9 17 17.5 19.9 19.7 19.6 20.8 20.1
Refining 5 5.1 5.5 11.2 9.6 12 14.4 17.9 15.1 13 13.1
Oil & Gas 65.3 61.2 58.1 57.8 69.9 66.6 83.4 34.6 44.4 37.7 16.4
Total 7 7.4 8.1 13 12.2 14.4 16.8 18.6 16.6 15.4 15.1
Segmental EBIT
Petchem 19 24 22 21 24 25 26 27 29 35 34 30 -3
Refining 38 38 32 47 51 54 63 64 66 59 61 -3 3.8
Oil & Gas 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 -2 0 0 -1 -151.2 -620.8
Others 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 29.5 26.7
Total 62 66 57 71 79 81 92 89 96 95 95 2.6 0
EBIT Margin (%)
Petchem 7.9 9.6 10.3 10.6 12.5 12.6 14.3 13.9 14.9 16.3 15.5
Refining 4.1 4.1 4.4 9.7 8.3 10.5 12.7 15.8 13.4 11.4 11.5
Oil & Gas 31.3 24.1 19.8 13.4 19.5 11.7 24.6 -26.9 6.1 3.4 -20.1
Total 5.3 5.6 6 10.2 9.6 11.2 13.4 14.6 13.9 12.8 12.5
Operating Metrics
Refining (USD/bbl)
RIL GRM 8.7 8.3 7.3 10.1 10.4 10.6 11.5 10.8 11.5 10.1 10.8 -6.1 6.9
Singapore GRM 5.8 4.8 6.3 8.6 8 6.3 8 7.8 5 5.1 6.7 -16.3 31.4
Premium 2.9 3.5 1 1.5 2.4 4.3 3.5 3 6.5 5 4.1 17.1 -18
Refinery Thr' put (mmt) 16.7 17.3 17.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 18 17.8 16.8 18 17.8 -1.1 -1.1
Utilization (%) 108 112 114 105 107 110 116 115 108 116 115
Petrochemicals
Polymer (TMT) 1,082 1,132 1,049 1,037 1,083 1,217 1,183 1,141 1,146 1,186 1,054 -10.9 -11.1
Polyester (TMT) 455 488 447 457 512 543 548 591 513 594 597 8.9 0.5
Polyester Int. (TMT) 1,086 1,305 1,241 1,245 1,452 1,475 1,725 1,780 1,533 1,739 1,735 0.6 -0.2
E&P
Gross Oil Prodn (tmt)
PMT 273 246 246 218 213 246 218 246 231 211 201 -8.1 -5.2
KG-D6 72 68 68 68 55 53 49 45 43 39 41 -15.9 5.1
Total 345 314 314 286 267 299 267 291 274 251 242 -9.5 -3.5
Gross Gas Prodn (mmscmd)
PMT 7.1 6.4 6.7 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.8 5.3 4.7 4.9 -11.2 2.6
KG-D6 13.1 12.6 12 11.4 11.5 11.5 10.7 9.7 8.7 7.7 7.5 -30.1 -2.6
Total 20.1 19 18.7 17.7 17.3 17.1 16.2 15.5 14 12.4 12.4 -23.7 -0.6
Shale production (bcfe) 48.6 49.8 52.1 49.4 49.3 51 54.2 50.6 44.5 41.4 37.5 -30.8 -9.4
Source: Company, MOSL

16 January 2017 2
Reliance Industries

Key takeaways from analyst meet


REFINING/PETCHEM: GRM at USD10.8/bbl despite shutdown in FCCU
 There was a planned shutdown in FCCU unit as a result of which, production of
petrol was affected. Despite that, the company was able to clock a GRM of USD
10.8/bbl, implying a premium of USD 4.1/bbl over SG GRM.
 Throughput stood at 17.8mmt (115% utilization) vs 18.0mmt in 3QFY16 and
2QFY17 each.
 In petchem, polymer demand was up +5% YoY in 3QFY17 (PE: +8%, PP: +5%,
PVC: +1%) while polyester was also encouraging at +5% YoY (PSF: -1%, POY:
+0%, PET: +34%). Domestic demand of petrochem was adversely impacted
because of demonetization.
TELECOM: Capex of INR1.71t till-date
 Management guided that telecom launch is round the corner but exact date will
be function of resolution of interconnect issues.
 RIL wants consumers to get adequate Jio experience and can even extend the
trial offer if required. Currently customers are facing issues in voice connectivity
with call failures of 2-20%.
 Capex (helped by INR490b debt) reached INR1.71t (v/s INR1.46t on September
2016). It has recently announced additional capex of INR 300b.
Petroleum Marketing: 1,151 outlets opened so far
 RIL has reopened its 1,151 (v/s 950 outlets on March 2016). It guides reaching
1,400 by Mar 2017.
 The company had witnessed sharp fall in market share due to demonetization. It
started giving a discount of INR1/lit which has been able to revert to the pre-
demonetization market share.
New Projects Update: further delay; no change in capex
 RIL’s USD18.5b core projects (petcoke gasification, polyester expansion, off-gas
cracker and ethane sourcing) are effectively delayed by ~6 months. (a) Petcoke
gasification will be mechanically complete by June 2017 and fully commission by
Jan 2018, (b) Off-gas cracker will be mechanically completed by 1QFY18 and be
commissioned from 2QFY18.
 Ethane sourcing is on track. 100% utilization of new projects is now shifted to
FY19. The company is also building facilities at Jamnagar, Nagothane and Hazira
for feedstock flexibility.
Domestic E&P: Development contingent on several factors
 KG-D6 production declines: KG-D6 gross production declined to 7.5mmsmcd in
3QFY17 (v/s 10.7mmscmd in 3QFY16).RIL is trying to sustain production through
well optimization.
 Development of RIL’s east coast fields – R-series, MJ (D55) and D29/D30 will be
contingent on resolution of arbitration cases and approvals. Optimistically
production from R-series could start in 2020.
 CBM production likely in 2HFY17: Expects production start in 3QFY17. Currently
de-watering wells and testing Shahdol - Phulpur pipeline.

16 January 2017 3
Reliance Industries

Key financial highlights


 Interest expenses in 3QFY17 stood at INR9.3b up 53% YoY and 47% QoQ.
 Other income at INR30.3b (v/s INR22.8b in 3QFY16 and INR22.8b in 2QFY17)
exceeded our estimate of INR22b.
 D,D&A was lower at INR20.7b (-14% YoY, +2% QoQ).
 Effective tax rate stood at 24.5% in 3QFY17 (flat QoQ).
 Consolidated debt stood at ~INR1,944b (v/s ~INR1,804b in 4QFY16); cash and
cash equivalents stood at ~INR764b (v/s ~INR899b in 4QFY16).

Exhibit 2: Refining share in overall standalone EBIT remains high at ~65% in 3QFY17
Petrochem Refining E&P Others
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 7
8 2 1 2
6 9 6 3 8 1 1
5 1
5 2 1
3 1
2 1
3 1
0 1
0
9
23 26 30 29 32 28 24 23 21 22 25 20 20 14

29 28 35 56 52 53 60 61 57 56 66 65 67 68 71 68 62 65
28 34 34 36 38 37 46 44 33 43 58 58 59

48 46 42 38 45 36
34 36 38 39 32 34 42 28 31 32 36
41 36 32
30 36 38 30 31 31 28 30 30 37 35
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 3: Status update of ongoing core business capex plans


Current Planned Status /
In KTPA Capacity Expansion Total Likely production start
Refinery Off-gas Cracker
Ethylene 1,883 1,365 3,248 2QFY18 (v/s 3QFY17 earlier)
Propylene 759 154 913 2QFY18 (v/s 3QFY17 earlier)
LDPE 190 400 590 2QFY18 (v/s 3QFY17 earlier)
LLDPE 928 550 1,478 2QFY18 (v/s 3QFY17 earlier)
Benzene 419 453 872 Along with PX line
PP 2,100 135 2,235 2QFY18 (v/s 3QFY17 earlier)
Polyesters
PFY 670 395 1,065 Commissioned
PTY 153 140 293 Commissioned
PSF 692 346 1,038
PET 290 648 938 Phase 1 commissioned; Phase 2 in Dec 2015
Polyester Intermediates
Paraxylene 1,830 2,470 4,300 Full commissioning by 3Q/4Q FY17 (v/s initial planned
expansion of 1.9MMT)
PTA 2,050 2,296 4,346 Commissioned
MEG 733 730 1,463
Rubber Division
PBR 74 40 114 Commissioned in 4QFY14
SBR 150 150 July-Sept 2014 (2QFY15)
Butyl Rubber 100 100 Commissioning by 2016
HPIB 105 105
Petcoke Gasifier 8bcm/yr 8bcm/yr 3QFY18
Source: Company, MOSL

16 January 2017 4
Reliance Industries

Refer our detailed report on JIO: Trial launch garners 16m subscribers, Capex at INR1.59t
Telecom released in October 2016
By 2020 if required capex can reach INR2.5t

Mass Scale free welcome offer could continue until March’16 to attract subscriber growth
towards the celebrated 100m mark, with RJio’s indicative data pricing at INR 130-140/GB.
Our key moniterable remains the Subscriber-ARPU mix, as subscriber churn and potential
ARPU dilution post the welcome offer could change RJio’s product offerings. Network
investment may continue over the next 2-3 years with incremental investment of INR
1,000b over next four years. Healthy traction on Jio App could improve data adoption by
early data users. We expect RJIo to reach 84m subscribers and ARPU of INR 251 by FY19E
with EBITDA break even by FY20E.

Management commentary: Reached 72.4m subscribers; data rates trending


towards USD 1/GB (INR 65-70)
Telecom Analyst:  RJio reached 72.4 Mn subscriber base by Dec’16.
Ali Asgar  Voice calling - While there is improvement, call failure rate still continue to
(Aliasgar.shakiri@MotilalOswal.com); hover at elevated level - 2- 20%.
+91 22 6129 1565  Data rates trending towards USD 1/GB (INR65-70). We believe higher usage may
lead to ARPU accretion in the telecom market.
 Data congestion faced by 8% subscribers due to abnormally high data usage.
Digital apps receiving 4.3-4.4 ratings on Play stores.
 LTE Smartphones ecosystem fast emerging – 80% of smartphones sold are LTE
enabled in Dec’16 quarter. Out of phones above INR 6,000, 95% are LTE enabled
handsets.
 Management did not comment on network coverage, capex outlook or potential
offerings post the free usage period until 31st March’17.

Our expectation – maintain FY20E EBITDA breakeven; DCF value at INR


19/share
 We have factored higher subscriber base of 75m and 99m for March’17 and
March’18 with an ARPU of INR 200 for FY18E, once it starts charging. This should
generate revenue base of ~INR210b in FY18E. The ARPU is about 15-20%
premium to Bharti – the leader in the market. RJio may reach about 90-100m by
March’16; we assume potential churn of about 20-25% once the company starts
billing subscribers, factoring 75m subscribers for March’17.
 We believe, RJio’s target of wallet share will change the conventional telecom
operator’s volume/pricing offerings to subscriber/ARPU dynamics. High
subscriber base through low priced offering could offset ARPUs, keeping our
revenue estimates of INR ~210b intact.
 We expect RJio to reach about 13% revenue market share in FY19E and third
year EBITDA breakeven (FY20) with EBITDA of INR 27.5b in FY20. This works out
to be about 7% project IRR and DCF based value of INR 19/share.

16 January 2017 5
Reliance Industries

REFINING: Operating GRM in line; diesel cracks higher


GRM at USD10.8/bbl; outlook positive

Exhibit 4: RIL’s premium over benchmark stood at USD4.1/bbl in 3QFY17


RIL's GRM premium over SG Brent less Dubai Arab L-H
8

0
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
(2)

Exhibit 5: Refining EBIT down 5.5% YoY and up +4% QoQ


Refining EBIT (INRb) EBIT Margins (%)
15.8
12.7 13.4
11.411.5
9.7 8.3 10.5
5.3
3.4 2.9 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.0 4.3 4.5 2.2 2.2 2.5 4.2 4.2 4.5 3.6 3.3 3.3 4.5 4.1 4.1 4.4

13 13 14 20 20 22 24 25 32 31 17 17 21 35 36 35 30 32 31 40 38 38 32 47 51 54 63 64 66 59 61
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Exhibit 6: 3QFY17 GRM at USD10.8/bbl; premium of USD4.1/bbl
Singapore GRM Premium / (Disc) RIL GRM
11.510.811.5
9.5 9.6 10.1 10.310.1
9.3 10.110.410.6 10.110.8
9.0 9.2 8.4 8.7 8.3
7.9 7.7
7.5
6.0 5.9
7.5 7.3 1.7 1.0 6.8 7.6 7.6 0.4 1.4 7.6 7.3 1.5 2.4 3.5 3.0
3.5 1.8 - 1.0 3.1 1.9 2.3 3.1 2.9 4.3 6.5 5.0 4.1
3.4 2.6 3.6 3.7 3.3 3.5 1.0
2.7 4.0 7.4 8.6 9.1 7.9 7.6 6.6 9.1 6.5 8.7 6.5 5.4 8.6 8.0
4.9 3.7 4.2 5.5 4.3 6.2 5.8 4.8 6.3 6.3 8.0 7.8 5.0 5.1 6.7
4.1 3.3
1.9
(1.1)
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17

Source: Company, MOSL

16 January 2017 6
Reliance Industries

Exhibit 7: Refinery throughput increased YoY to 17.8mmt, utilization at 115%


Refinery Thr' put (mmt) Utilization (%)

109 104 108 110 110 111 105 112 114 113 104 110 114 110 105 108 112 114 105 107 110 116 115 108 116 115
101 107 108 109
77
12.0
15.6
16.6
16.7
16.9
16.9
16.1
16.7
17.0
17.1
17.2
16.3
17.3
17.6
17.5
16.1
17.1
17.7
17.0
16.3
16.7
17.3
17.7
16.2
16.6
17.1
18.0
17.8
16.8
18.0
17.8
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 8: RIL expects limited capacity supply and stable demand to support margins

Source: Company

16 January 2017 7
Reliance Industries

PETCHEM: In line; boosted by margins and domestic demand


EBIT increased 30% YoY and -3% QoQ; EBIT share at 35%

Exhibit 9: EBIT up 30% YoY and -3% QoQ; margins declined QoQ to 15.5%
Petchem EBIT (INRb) EBIT Margins (%)
18.0
16.5 16.315.5
15.214.4 14.313.914.9
13.914.414.814.6
12.111.5 12.512.6
10.910.2 10.1 10.310.6
9.6
8.0 7.9 8.8 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.6 7.9
21
22
21
22
21
22
24
26
22
24
22
22
18
17
19
19
19
25
21
21
19
24
22
21
24
25
26
27
29
35
34
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 10: Key Polymer spread decreased QoQ ; POY/PSF spreads down 1.7%/1.6% QoQ in 3QFY17 (INR/kg)
75 PE PP PVC POY PSF
60
45
30
15
0
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 11: Petchem volume affected due to shutdown


Polymer (mmt) Polyester (mmt) Polyester Interm. (mmt)

1.5 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.7


1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.5
1.1 1.1
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6
0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5
0.4
1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1
0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17

Source: Company, MOSL

16 January 2017 8
16 January 2017
1QFY10 99 19.0
54

1QFY10
2QFY10 123 33.8
2QFY10
3QFY10 115 46.2
3QFY10
4QFY10 171 59.2
4QFY10
1QFY11 304 59.1
1QFY11
2QFY11 279 58.5
42 42 39 41 40

2QFY11
3QFY11 294 56.4
3QFY11
4QFY11 214 50.1
4QFY11
1QFY12 192 48.6
36 38 38

1QFY12
2QFY12 176 45.8
2QFY12
3QFY12 164 41.4
43 46

3QFY12
development plan approvals

4QFY12 150 35.8


4QFY12
1QFY13 123 32.5
1QFY13
2QFY13 109 28.8
36 39 38

2QFY13
3QFY13 82 24.3
3QFY13
4QFY13 83 19.0
31 29

4QFY13
1QFY14 68 15.3
1QFY14
2QFY14 68 14.1
24 24

2QFY14
3QFY14 55 12.6
31

3QFY14
E&P EBIT (INRb)

4QFY14 82 13.5
KG-D6 Gross Oil (TMT)
27

4QFY14
1QFY15 72 13.1
Exhibit 12: E&P returns to profitability led by lower depletion

31

1QFY15
2QFY15 68 12.6
2QFY15
3QFY15 68 12.0
24 20

3QFY15
Exhibit 13: KG-D6 gross production averaged 7.5mmscmd in 3QFY17

4QFY15 68 11.4
13

4QFY15
1QFY16 55 11.5
20

1QFY16
2QFY16 53 11.5
12

2QFY16
3QFY16 49 10.7
25

3QFY16
E&P: KG-D6 decline continues; shale outlook challenging

4QFY16 45 9.7
(2)

1QFY17 43 8.7 4QFY16


Domestic E&P development contingent on arbitration resolution and

2QFY17 39 7.7 1QFY17


6 3

10 12 15 17 19 17 15 16 15 15 13 10 10 9 6 5 4 4 5 4 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 (27) 0 0

3QFY17 41 7.5 2QFY17


(1)

3QFY17
(20)

9
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Reliance Industries
Reliance Industries

Shale Gas profitability under pressure due to low prices


 RIL’s shale gas revenues stood at USD92m (v/s 110 in 3QFY16), while EBITDA
stood at USD30m (v/s USD58m in 3QFY16).
 RIL’s production share in shale JV’s stood at 37.5bcfe (v/s 54bcfe in 3QFY16).
Average realization stood at USD2.85/mscfe (v/s USD2.4/mscfe in 3QFY16).

Exhibit 14: Shale gas revenues down YoY impacted by production


Revenues (USDm) EBITDA (USDm)
266 270
244
215 221
193 199 201 202 206
165 175 174
127 138 141
117 110
91 86 82 93 89 92
55 58
28 40 30
23
1QFY14

2QFY14

3QFY14

4QFY14

1QFY15

2QFY15

3QFY15

4QFY15

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 15: RIL production down 30.8% YoY and 9.4% QoQ (RIL Production Share bcfe)
Shale gas vol, net (bcfe)
52.1 49.4 49.3 51.0 54.2 50.6
48.6 49.8
42.3 44.2 44.5
41.4
37.6 35.9 37.5
1QFY14

2QFY14

3QFY14

4QFY14

1QFY15

2QFY15

3QFY15

4QFY15

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL

16 January 2017 10
Reliance Industries

Organized Retail: Sales at INR87b; sold 2.8m LYF devices


3QFY17 revenues up 47%; presence in 686 cities with 3,553 stores

Exhibit 16: Reliance retail has opened 111 stores in 3QFY17, increasing presence increased to 686 cities
1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
No. of stores (No.) 1,723 2,006 2,285 2,621 2,747 2,857 3,043 3,245 3,383 3,442 3,553
Addition 212 437 279 336 126 110 186 202 138 59 111
No. of Cities 148 155 166 200 210 250 371 532 679 679 686
Avg. stores per city 12 13 14 13 13 11 6 6 5 5 5
Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 17: Reliance opened 111 new stores in 3QFY17


Value and others Digital Brand, Jewellery, Fashion & Lifestyle Total Stores

3,383 3,442 3,553


3,245
2,857 3,043
2,621 2,747
2,285
2,006 868 909
1,723 809 827
756
722
694 1,196 1,298 1,379 1,537
689 920 1,862 1,917 1,986
427
602 595 609 616 622 610 597

1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17

Source: Company, MOSL

Valuation and view


 RIL is in the midst of executing its largest ever capex plans in core and non-core
businesses. Key things to watchout for RIL: (1) telecom launch (INR1.71t capex
till date) and subscriber ramp-up, (2) E&P arbitration case outcome for domestic
E&P clarity and (3) Update on core capex plan of ~USD18.5b.
 For FY17/FY18/FY19, we model GRM at USD10.4/9.0/9.4/bbl.
 Over the last decade, RIL commissioned multiple large projects including KG-D6,
RPL refinery, shale gas JV's and organized retail venture. Barring RPL, other
projects got marred by external factors leading to subpar stock performance.
 RIL’s capital allocation in recent years had been skewed towards non-core
businesses (telecom) to ring-fence its earnings from cyclical businesses. With
telecom launch round the corner, RIL stock is entering into a critical juncture as
success of telecom venture will drive the stock performance.
 If core projects are delayed further, it may result in further cut in earnings
estimates. Return ratios for RIL remain under pressure with sub-12% on
standalone basis.
 On FY19E basis, the stock trades at 9.5x adj. SA EPS of INR113 and EV/EBITDA of
6.3x. Our SOTP-based fair value stands at INR1,057/share. Maintain Neutral.

16 January 2017 11
Reliance Industries

Exhibit 18: RIL: Key assumptions


Key Metrics FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Exchange Rate (INR/USD) 60.5 61.2 65.4 67.4 70.0 72.0
Refining
Capacity (mmt) 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0
Production (mmt) 68.1 67.9 69.5 68.8 68.0 68.0
Capacity Utilization (%) 110% 110% 112% 111% 110% 110%
GRM (USD/bbl)
Singapore GRM 5.6 6.4 7.5 5.6 5.4 5.4
Premium/(disc) 2.8 2.5 3.3 4.8 3.6 4.0
RIL GRM 8.5 8.8 10.8 10.4 9.0 9.4
E&P
Gas Production (mmscmd) 13.8 12.2 8.4 7.8 6.7 5.7
Oil Production (kbd) 6.4 6.6 4.9 3.3 2.9 2.5
Pricing
Brent Oil (USD/bbl) 109 86 48 49 60 60
Wellhead Gas Price (USD/mmbtu) 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.4
Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 19: RIL: Segmental EBITDA break-up (INRb)


Segmental EBITDA (INRb) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Refining 176 187 265 263 214 231
Petchem 110 118 143 167 231 230
E&P 40 37 28 8 11 8
Total 326 342 436 439 456 468
Segmental EBITDA share (%)
Refining 54 55 61 60 47 49
Petrochemicals 34 35 33 38 51 49
E&P 12 11 6 2 2 2
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 20: RIL: Sum of the parts valuation (on FY19 basis)
Sum of the parts (on FY19 basis) Remarks/Methodology
Core business
Refining 471 6x FY19 EBITDA
Petchem 470 6x FY19 EBITDA
E&P 68
KG D6 10 DCF
PMT 13 DCF
NEC-25 4 USD 5/boe
CBM 8 USD 5/boe
Shale (46) 7x EV/EBITDA FY19
KG basin exploratory upside 78 USD 5/boe
Investments
RGTIL 7 Book value
Reliance Retail 88 .7x FY19 sales
RJio 19 As per our telecom analyst
Total 1,122
Net debt / (cash) 66
Target price 1,057

16 January 2017 12
Reliance Industries

Reliance Industries: Story in charts


Exhibit 21: RIL’s earnings growth momentum on a recovery Exhibit 22: Also return ratios are expected to gradually
track recover

PAT (INRb) PAT - YoY (%) 14.1 RoCE (%) RoE (%)
24.9
20.7 12.6
12.1 12.0
11.7 11.6 11.4
11.0 10.9

8.9
200 6.6 10.6
4.8 4.7 4.8 9.8 9.6 9.6 9.5
3.3 9.2 9.2
8.9
8.2
203 210 220 227 274 292 318 333
(1.2)
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 23: Refinery throughput to remain at 68mmt in FY18/19; GRM to stabilize


Refinery Thr' put (mmt) RIL GRM (USD/bbl)
10.8 10.4
9.2 9.0 9.4
8.4 8.6 8.1 8.6

66.6 67.6 68.5 68.1 67.9 69.5 69.6 68.0 68.0

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 24: Expect petchem EBITDA contribution to increase going forward, followed by refining
Refining Petchem E&P Total 468
436 443 456
389 10 7
28 11
353 342
307 326 326
143 169 231 230
141 40 37
240 238 101 58
206 104 118
20 24 96 110
17 117 112
97 94
93 111 265 264
214 231
172 176 187
123 120 131 140
96 92

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

16 January 2017 13
Reliance Industries

Reliance Industries: Story in charts

Exhibit 25: Segmental EBITDA break-up (%) - E&P a Exhibit 26: Expect E&P production to decline; though new
dampener, refining and petchem outshine policy can boost long-term production (mmscmd)
Refining Petrochemicals E&P
100 56.2 Gas Production (mmscmd)

80 42.6
39.8
60
26.5
40
13.8 12.2
20 8.4 7.8 6.7 5.7
-
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 27: RIL refining margins improved in FY16 (USD/bbl) Exhibit 28: We expect petchem EBITDA to improve in
after staying flat in recent years FY18/19
Singapore GRM Premium/(disc) RIL GRM
10.8 10.4 Petchem EBITDA (INRb) 231 230
9.2 9.0 9.4
8.4 8.6 8.5 8.8
3.3 169
6.9 0.3 1.4 143
2.5 4.8 4.0
3.2 2.8 3.6 117 118
111 112 110
96
3.3
8.3 7.9 7.5
5.6 6.4 5.6 5.4 5.4
5.2
3.6
FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

FY19E

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

Exhibit 29: Dividend Payout stabilized in recent years (%) Exhibit 30: RIL 1Yr Fwd P/E Chart (last 10 years)
Dividend payout (%) PE (x) Peak(x) Avg(x) Min(x)
20 26.5
26

16 21

16 13.4
12
11 8.7
10.2
8 6
Jun-09

Jun-14
Dec-06

Mar-08

Sep-10

Dec-11

Mar-13

Sep-15

Dec-16
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E

Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL

16 January 2017 14
Reliance Industries

Financials and valuations


Standalone - Income Statement INR Million)
Y/E March FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Total Income from Operations 3,602,970 3,901,170 3,290,760 2,331,580 2,376,912 2,756,646 2,846,223
Change (%) 9.2 8.3 -15.6 -29.1 1.9 16.0 3.2
Purchases -28,150 9,360 90,770 84,120 -5,040 0 0
Manufacturing and Other Expenses 3,323,980 3,584,150 2,883,970 1,853,990 1,960,653 2,288,695 2,365,542
Total Expenditure 3,295,100 3,592,400 2,974,740 1,930,190 1,955,613 2,288,695 2,365,542
% of Sales 91.5 92.1 90.4 82.8 82.3 83.0 83.1
EBITDA 307,870 308,770 316,020 401,390 421,299 467,951 480,681
Margin (%) 8.5 7.9 9.6 17.2 17.7 17.0 16.9
Depreciation 94,650 87,890 84,880 95,660 102,454 115,108 122,617
EBIT 213,220 220,880 231,140 305,730 318,845 352,843 358,064
Int. and Finance Charges 30,360 32,060 23,670 24,540 43,280 37,125 30,375
Other Income 79,980 89,360 87,210 75,820 99,224 92,243 99,747
PBT bef. EO Exp. 262,840 278,180 294,680 357,010 374,789 407,961 427,437
EO Items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PBT after EO Exp. 262,840 278,180 294,680 357,010 374,789 407,961 427,437
Total Tax 52,810 58,340 67,490 82,840 82,454 89,751 94,036
Tax Rate (%) 20.1 21.0 22.9 23.2 22.0 22.0 22.0
Reported PAT 210,030 219,840 227,190 274,170 292,336 318,209 333,401
Adjusted PAT 210,030 219,840 227,190 274,170 292,336 318,209 333,401
Change (%) 4.8 4.7 3.3 20.7 6.6 8.9 4.8
Margin (%) 5.8 5.6 6.9 11.8 12.3 11.5 11.7

Standalone - Balance Sheet (INR Million)


Y/E March FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Equity Share Capital 32,540 32,320 32,360 32,400 32,400 32,400 32,400
Eq. Share Warrants & App. Money 250 170 170 80 0 0 0
Total Reserves 1,767,410 1,938,420 2,129,230 2,369,360 2,619,527 2,891,835 3,177,144
Net Worth 1,800,200 1,970,910 2,161,760 2,401,840 2,651,927 2,924,235 3,209,544
Total Loans 724,050 854,810 976,170 1,071,300 1,000,000 650,000 700,000
Deferred Tax Liabilities 121,930 122,150 126,770 131,590 131,590 131,590 131,590
Capital Employed 2,646,180 2,947,870 3,264,700 3,604,730 3,783,517 3,705,825 4,041,134
Gross Block 2,131,540 2,225,650 2,360,620 2,622,320 2,910,190 3,305,650 3,315,650
Less: Accum. Deprn. 1,034,060 1,131,590 1,214,990 1,308,220 1,410,674 1,525,782 1,648,399
Net Fixed Assets 1,097,480 1,094,060 1,145,630 1,314,100 1,499,516 1,779,868 1,667,251
Capital WIP 191,160 417,160 757,530 1,068,790 983,460 790,540 830,540
Total Investments 525,090 894,620 1,125,730 1,520,590 1,520,590 1,520,590 1,520,590
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 1,371,380 1,269,990 948,960 673,720 928,407 941,438 1,393,085
Inventory 427,290 429,320 365,510 280,340 206,320 233,397 258,735
Account Receivables 118,800 106,640 46,610 34,950 33,666 39,045 40,314
Cash and Bank Balance 495,470 332,240 115,710 68,920 412,318 457,660 869,889
Loans and Advances 329,820 401,790 421,130 289,510 276,103 211,336 224,147
Curr. Liability & Prov. 538,930 727,960 713,150 972,470 1,148,456 1,326,610 1,370,333
Account Payables 495,450 686,290 650,570 945,880 1,101,671 1,276,542 1,318,289
Provisions 43,480 41,670 62,580 26,590 46,785 50,068 52,044
Net Current Assets 832,450 542,030 235,810 -298,750 -220,049 -385,173 22,752
Appl. of Funds 2,646,180 2,947,870 3,264,700 3,604,730 3,783,517 3,705,825 4,041,134
E: MOSL Estimates

16 January 2017 15
Reliance Industries

Financials and valuations


Ratios
Y/E March FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Basic (INR)
EPS 71.5 74.8 77.2 93.0 99.2 107.9 113.1
Cash EPS 93.6 95.2 96.4 114.1 121.8 133.7 140.7
BV/Share 613.1 670.4 734.5 814.7 899.7 992.1 1,088.8
DPS 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 12.2 13.3 13.9
Payout (%) 14.6 14.9 15.7 13.5 14.4 14.4 14.4
Valuation (x)
P/E 14.0 11.6 10.9 10.0 9.5
Cash P/E 11.2 9.4 8.8 8.1 7.7
P/BV 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
EV/Sales 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.1
EV/EBITDA 12.8 10.4 8.9 7.2 6.3
Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3
FCF per share 66.9 -18.4 4.9 118.8 104.9 149.7 139.2
Return Ratios (%)
RoE 12.1 11.7 11.0 12.0 11.6 11.4 10.9
RoCE 9.6 9.2 8.2 8.9 9.2 9.6 9.5
RoIC 11.8 12.7 13.9 21.2 27.4 30.5 31.8
Working Capital Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9
Asset Turnover (x) 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Inventory (Days) 43 40 41 44 32 31 33
Debtor (Days) 12 10 5 5 5 5 5
Creditor (Days) 50 64 72 148 169 169 169
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio 2.5 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0
Interest Cover Ratio 7.0 6.9 9.8 12.5 7.4 9.5 11.8
Net Debt/Equity -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5

Standalone - Cash Flow Statement (INR Million)


Y/E March FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
OP/(Loss) before Tax 262,840 278,180 294,680 360,160 374,789 407,961 427,437
Depreciation 94,650 87,890 84,880 85,900 102,454 115,108 122,617
Direct Taxes Paid -52,810 -58,340 -67,490 -85,900 -82,454 -89,751 -94,036
(Inc)/Dec in WC 59,460 -51,630 174,450 550,750 116,957 210,466 4,304
CF from Operations 364,140 256,100 486,520 910,910 511,747 643,783 460,321
Others 710 220 4,620 4,820 0 0 0
CF from Operating incl EO 364,850 256,320 491,140 915,730 511,747 643,783 460,321
(Inc)/Dec in FA -168,520 -310,470 -476,820 -565,630 -202,540 -202,540 -50,000
Free Cash Flow 196,330 -54,150 14,320 350,100 309,207 441,243 410,321
(Pur)/Sale of Investments 14,991 -369,530 -231,110 -394,860 0 0 0
CF from Investments -153,529 -680,000 -707,930 -960,490 -202,540 -202,540 -50,000
Issue of Shares -40,040 -16,450 -750 2,820 -80 0 0
Inc/(Dec) in Debt -41,040 309,580 36,600 32,150 76,440 -350,000 50,000
Dividend Paid -30,750 -32,680 -35,590 -37,000 -42,169 -45,901 -48,092
CF from Fin. Activity -111,830 260,450 260 -2,030 34,191 -395,901 1,908
Inc/Dec of Cash 99,491 -163,230 -216,530 -46,790 343,398 45,342 412,229
Opening Balance 395,979 495,470 332,240 115,710 68,920 412,318 457,660
Closing Balance 495,470 332,240 115,710 68,920 412,318 457,660 869,889

16 January 2017 16
Reliance Industries

Corporate profile
Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased
Company description
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), a Fortune 500
company, is India's largest private sector entity,
with a turnover of USD66.8b and net profit of USD3.
9b. Over the years, RIL has grown through backward
integration in energy chain (textiles, petchem,
refining and E &P) and is now moving into new
areas like organized retail and BWA. It operates one
of the largest refining capacity of 1.24mmbbl/d at a
single location and is the largest producer of
polyester fibre and yarn.
Source: MOSL/Bloomberg

Exhibit 2: Shareholding pattern (%) Exhibit 3: Top holders


Sep-16 Jun-16 Sep-15 Holder Name % Holding
Promoter 45.1 45.1 45.2 LIC of India 8.8
DII 12.5 13.0 13.1 Reliance Chemicals Limited 1.9
FII 23.7 22.7 21.9 Europacific Growth Fund 1.9
Others 18.7 19.3 19.9 Reliance Polyolefins Limited 1.9
Note: FII Includes depository receipts Source: Capitaline Government of Singapore 1.0

Source: Capitaline

Exhibit 4: Top management Exhibit 5: Directors


Name Designation Name Name
Mukesh D Ambani Chairman & Managing Director Nita M Ambani Adil Zainulbhai
Hital R Meswani Executive Director Ashok Misra D V Kapur
Nikhil Meswani Executive Director Dipak C Jain M L Bhakta
Pawan Kumar Kapil Executive Director R A Mashelkar Raminder Singh Gujral
PMS Prasad Executive Director Y P Trivedi Maheswar S Sahu
K Sethuraman Company Secretary

Source: Capitaline *Independent

Exhibit 6: Auditors Exhibit 7: MOSL forecast v/s consensus


Name Type EPS MOSL Consensus Variation
(INR) forecast forecast (%)
Bandyopadhyaya Bhaumik & Co Cost Auditor
FY17 99.2 91.4 8.5
Chaturvedi & Shah Statutory
FY18 107.9 102.2 5.6
Deloitte Haskins & Sells LLP Statutory
Source: Bloomberg
Dilip M Malkar & Co Cost Auditor
Diwanji & Associates Cost Auditor
Source: Capitaline

16 January 2017 17
Disclosures
This document has been prepared by Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred to as Most) to provide information about the company (ies) and/sector(s), if any, covered in the report and Reliance Industries
may be distributed by it and/or its
affiliated company(ies). This report is for personal information of the selected recipient/s and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or
inducement to invest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to
you solely for your general information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. This report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment
objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this material, investors should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek
professional advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for
future performance, future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur.
MOSt and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management, brokerage and financing group. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationships with a some
companies covered by our Research Department. Our research professionals may provide input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. Investors should assume that MOSt and/or its affiliates are
seeking or will seek investment banking or other business from the company or companies that are the subject of this material and that the research professionals who were involved in preparing this material may educate investors
on investments in such business . The research professionals responsible for the preparation of this document may interact with trading desk personnel, sales personnel and other parties for the purpose of gathering, applying and
interpreting information. Our research professionals are paid on twin parameters of performance & profitability of MOSt.
MOSt generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. Additionally, MOSt
generally prohibits its analysts and persons reporting to analysts from serving as an officer, director, or advisory board member of any companies that the analysts cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates
may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment
decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. In reviewing these materials, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing among other things, may give rise to real or potential conflicts of interest.
MOSt and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies
mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an
advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing
whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the affiliates of MOSt even though there might exist an inherent
conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts company's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamental analysis. In addition MOST has different business segments / Divisions with independent research
separated by Chinese walls catering to different set of customers having various objectives, risk profiles, investment horizon, etc, and therefore may at times have different contrary views on stocks sectors and markets.
Unauthorized disclosure, use, dissemination or copying (either whole or partial) of this information, is prohibited. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees from,
any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees free
and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays. The information contained herein is based on publicly available data or other
sources believed to be reliable. Any statements contained in this report attributed to a third party represent MOSt’s interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a
subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. This Report is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the
document. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on reasonable basis, MOSt and/or its affiliates are under no obligation to update the information. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that
may prevent MOSt and/or its affiliates from doing so. MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible and liable for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the
information contained in this report. MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the
implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations.
This report is intended for distribution to institutional investors. Recipients who are not institutional investors should seek advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on this report or for
any necessary explanation of its contents.
Most and it’s associates may have managed or co-managed public offering of securities, may have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services, may have received any compensation
for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months.
Most and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report.
Subject Company may have been a client of Most or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report
MOSt and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise of over 1 % at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research in the securities mentioned in this
report. To enhance transparency, MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited is registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SEBI Reg. No. INH000000412
Pending Regulatory inspections against Motilal Oswal Securities Limited:
SEBI pursuant to a complaint from client Shri C.R. Mohanraj alleging unauthorized trading, issued a letter dated 29th April 2014 to MOSL notifying appointment of an Adjudicating Officer as per SEBI regulations to hold inquiry and
adjudge violation of SEBI Regulations; MOSL replied to the Show Cause Notice whereby SEBI granted us an opportunity of Inspection of Documents. Since all the documents requested by us were not covered we have requested to
SEBI vide our letter dated June 23, 2015 to provide pending list of documents for inspection.
List of associate companies of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited -Click here to access detailed report

Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for preparation of MOSt research receive
compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues
Disclosure of Interest Statement RELIANCE INDUSTRIES
 Analyst ownership of the stock No
 Served as an officer, director or employee No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com and http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes

Regional Disclosures (outside India)


This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which
would subject MOSt & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For Hong Kong: This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures
Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Securities (SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has
an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited for distribution of research report in Kong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to
SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities,
products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in
Hong Kong.
For U.S
Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (MOSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOSL is not a
registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the
absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOSL, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons.
This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This
document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be
engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal
Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore,
may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial Advisors Regulations and is a
subsidiary of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore to accredited investors, as defined in the
Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time.
In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Varun Kumar
Varun.kumar@motilaloswal.com
Contact : (+65) 68189232
Office Address:21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931

Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd


Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
16 January 2017 Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com 18

You might also like