Reliance Industries: CMP: INR1,077 TP: INR1,057 (-2%)
Reliance Industries: CMP: INR1,077 TP: INR1,057 (-2%)
Reliance Industries: CMP: INR1,077 TP: INR1,057 (-2%)
Reliance Industries
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
27,288 8,413
CMP: INR1,077 TP: INR1,057 (-2%) Neutral
Bloomberg RIL IN Reliance Industries’ (RIL) reported 3QFY17 standalone EBITDA lower than our estimates
Equity Shares (m) 3,242.4 at INR106b (+3% YoY and flat QoQ) due to lower than estimated GRM and higher opex.
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 3,520 / 52.0 PAT at INR80b (+11% YoY and +4% QoQ) was in line with our estimates due to higher
52-Week Range (INR) 1129 / 889 other income and lower interest cost. Jio (telecom) has garnered 72.4m subscribers and
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -1/8/-11 commercial launch will depend on resolution of interconnect issues. Management guides
Avg Val, INRm 3865 for further delays in ROGC (mechanical completion by 1QFY18) and petcoke gasifier
Free float (%) 54.9 projects (mechanical completion by June 2017). Key drivers for stock performance in the
near term would be core projects commissioning and subscriber ramp-up and ARPU in
Financials & Valuations (INR b) telecom.
Y/E March 2016 2017E 2018E Marginal decline in EBITDA: Refining EBIT stood at INR61.3b (-3% YoY, +4% QoQ).
Net Sales 2,331.6 2,376.9 2,756.6 3QFY17 GRM stood at USD10.8/bbl (-6% YoY, +7% QoQ). Petchem EBIT at INR33.6b
EBITDA 401.4 421.3 468.0 (+30% YoY, -3% QoQ) with EBIT margin at 15.5% (16.3% in 2QFY17) was lower QoQ
Net Profit 274.2 292.3 318.2 primarily due to demonetization affecting demand.
Adj. EPS (INR) 93.0 99.2 107.9 Expect further delay in gasifier; voice issue solution to decide Jio comm. launch
EPS Gr. (%) 20.5 6.6 8.9 ROGC by 1QFY18: ROGC has achieved 96% mechanical completion and is
BV/Sh. (INR) 814.7 899.7 992.1 expected to be 100% complete by 1QFY18. Expect ramp up to start from
RoE (%) 12.0 11.6 11.4
2QFY18. Petcoke gasifier is expected to be mechanically completed by June
RoCE (%) 8.9 9.2 9.6
2017. We expect another 3-6months for full utilization.
Payout (%) 13.5 14.4 14.4
Jio capex reaches INR 1.71t: Capex to date has reached INR1.71t. The
Valuations
P/E (x) 11.6 10.9 10.0 company recently announced additional INR 300b. Jio’s user base has reached
P/BV (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1 72.4m in December 2016. Commercial launch will be after resolution of voice
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.4 8.9 7.2 interconnect issues. The company still sees 2-20% call failure.
EV/Sales (x) 1.8 1.6 1.2 Domestic E&P continues to shrink: KG-D6 gas prodn at 7.5mmscmd (-30% YoY
and -2.6% QoQ) and shale at 37.5bcfe (-31% YoY and -9.4% QoQ). KG field
development is on cards but subject to arbitration resolution and plan
Estimate change approvals.
TP change 3QFY17 capex at INR380b; cons. net debt at INR1,943b (vs INR1,804b in
Rating change
2QFY17).
Valuation and view: On FY19E basis, the stock trades at 9.5x adj. SA EPS of
INR113 and EV/EBITDA of 6.3x. Our SOTP-based fair value stands at
INR1,057/share. Maintain Neutral.
Standalone - Quarterly Earning Model (INR Million)
Y/E March FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17E 3QFY17 Var v/s
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QE Est. Est. (%)
Net Sales 658,170 608,170 565,670 499,570 534,960 595,770 618,060 628,122 2,331,580 2,376,912 640,982 -3.6
YoY Change (%) -31.7 -37.0 -29.5 -10.9 -18.7 -2.0 9.3 25.7 -29.1 1.9 13.3
Total Expenditure 565,100 509,840 462,950 392,300 426,790 490,220 512,020 526,583 1,930,190 1,955,613 521,258 -1.8
EBITDA 93,070 98,330 102,720 107,270 108,170 105,550 106,040 101,539 401,390 421,299 119,725 -11.4
Margins (%) 14.1 16.2 18.2 21.5 20.2 17.7 17.2 16.2 17.2 17.7 18.7
Depreciation 22,650 23,720 24,050 25,240 19,500 20,290 20,770 25,613 95,660 86,173 25,613 -18.9
Interest 5,970 6,940 6,090 5,540 9,240 6,330 9,310 10,820 24,540 35,700 10,820 -14.0
Other Income 18,180 16,170 22,890 18,580 20,330 22,800 30,250 25,844 75,820 99,224 22,000 37.5
PBT 82,630 83,840 95,470 95,070 99,760 101,730 106,210 90,950 357,010 398,650 105,291 0.9
Tax 19,450 18,230 23,290 21,870 24,280 24,690 25,990 20,009 82,840 94,969 25,270 2.8
Rate (%) 24 22 24 23 24 24 24 22 23 24 24
Adj PAT 63,180 65,610 72,180 73,200 75,480 77,040 80,220 70,941 274,170 303,681 80,021 0.2
YoY Change (%) 11.8 14.2 41.9 17.3 19.5 17.4 11.1 -3.1 20.7 10.8 10.9
Margins (%) 9.6 10.8 12.8 14.7 14.1 12.9 13.0 11.3 11.8 12.8 12.5
Key Assumptions
Refining throughput (mm 16.6 17.1 18.0 17.8 16.8 18.0 17.8 17.0 69.5 69.6 17.0
GRM (USD/bbl) 10.4 10.6 11.5 10.8 11.5 10.1 10.8 9.0 10.8 10.4 11.3
Petchem EBITDA/tonne ( 273.2 259.9 260.8 271.6 303.8 314.4 329.4 250.0 266.3 299.4 250.0
Petchem volumes (mmt) 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.5 8.2 8.4 2.5
E: MOSL Estimates
Swarnendu Bhushan (Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale (Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Reliance Industries
16 January 2017 2
Reliance Industries
16 January 2017 3
Reliance Industries
Exhibit 2: Refining share in overall standalone EBIT remains high at ~65% in 3QFY17
Petrochem Refining E&P Others
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 7
8 2 1 2
6 9 6 3 8 1 1
5 1
5 2 1
3 1
2 1
3 1
0 1
0
9
23 26 30 29 32 28 24 23 21 22 25 20 20 14
29 28 35 56 52 53 60 61 57 56 66 65 67 68 71 68 62 65
28 34 34 36 38 37 46 44 33 43 58 58 59
48 46 42 38 45 36
34 36 38 39 32 34 42 28 31 32 36
41 36 32
30 36 38 30 31 31 28 30 30 37 35
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL
16 January 2017 4
Reliance Industries
Refer our detailed report on JIO: Trial launch garners 16m subscribers, Capex at INR1.59t
Telecom released in October 2016
By 2020 if required capex can reach INR2.5t
Mass Scale free welcome offer could continue until March’16 to attract subscriber growth
towards the celebrated 100m mark, with RJio’s indicative data pricing at INR 130-140/GB.
Our key moniterable remains the Subscriber-ARPU mix, as subscriber churn and potential
ARPU dilution post the welcome offer could change RJio’s product offerings. Network
investment may continue over the next 2-3 years with incremental investment of INR
1,000b over next four years. Healthy traction on Jio App could improve data adoption by
early data users. We expect RJIo to reach 84m subscribers and ARPU of INR 251 by FY19E
with EBITDA break even by FY20E.
16 January 2017 5
Reliance Industries
0
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
(2)
13 13 14 20 20 22 24 25 32 31 17 17 21 35 36 35 30 32 31 40 38 38 32 47 51 54 63 64 66 59 61
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Exhibit 6: 3QFY17 GRM at USD10.8/bbl; premium of USD4.1/bbl
Singapore GRM Premium / (Disc) RIL GRM
11.510.811.5
9.5 9.6 10.1 10.310.1
9.3 10.110.410.6 10.110.8
9.0 9.2 8.4 8.7 8.3
7.9 7.7
7.5
6.0 5.9
7.5 7.3 1.7 1.0 6.8 7.6 7.6 0.4 1.4 7.6 7.3 1.5 2.4 3.5 3.0
3.5 1.8 - 1.0 3.1 1.9 2.3 3.1 2.9 4.3 6.5 5.0 4.1
3.4 2.6 3.6 3.7 3.3 3.5 1.0
2.7 4.0 7.4 8.6 9.1 7.9 7.6 6.6 9.1 6.5 8.7 6.5 5.4 8.6 8.0
4.9 3.7 4.2 5.5 4.3 6.2 5.8 4.8 6.3 6.3 8.0 7.8 5.0 5.1 6.7
4.1 3.3
1.9
(1.1)
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
16 January 2017 6
Reliance Industries
109 104 108 110 110 111 105 112 114 113 104 110 114 110 105 108 112 114 105 107 110 116 115 108 116 115
101 107 108 109
77
12.0
15.6
16.6
16.7
16.9
16.9
16.1
16.7
17.0
17.1
17.2
16.3
17.3
17.6
17.5
16.1
17.1
17.7
17.0
16.3
16.7
17.3
17.7
16.2
16.6
17.1
18.0
17.8
16.8
18.0
17.8
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 8: RIL expects limited capacity supply and stable demand to support margins
Source: Company
16 January 2017 7
Reliance Industries
Exhibit 9: EBIT up 30% YoY and -3% QoQ; margins declined QoQ to 15.5%
Petchem EBIT (INRb) EBIT Margins (%)
18.0
16.5 16.315.5
15.214.4 14.313.914.9
13.914.414.814.6
12.111.5 12.512.6
10.910.2 10.1 10.310.6
9.6
8.0 7.9 8.8 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.6 7.9
21
22
21
22
21
22
24
26
22
24
22
22
18
17
19
19
19
25
21
21
19
24
22
21
24
25
26
27
29
35
34
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 10: Key Polymer spread decreased QoQ ; POY/PSF spreads down 1.7%/1.6% QoQ in 3QFY17 (INR/kg)
75 PE PP PVC POY PSF
60
45
30
15
0
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL
16 January 2017 8
16 January 2017
1QFY10 99 19.0
54
1QFY10
2QFY10 123 33.8
2QFY10
3QFY10 115 46.2
3QFY10
4QFY10 171 59.2
4QFY10
1QFY11 304 59.1
1QFY11
2QFY11 279 58.5
42 42 39 41 40
2QFY11
3QFY11 294 56.4
3QFY11
4QFY11 214 50.1
4QFY11
1QFY12 192 48.6
36 38 38
1QFY12
2QFY12 176 45.8
2QFY12
3QFY12 164 41.4
43 46
3QFY12
development plan approvals
2QFY13
3QFY13 82 24.3
3QFY13
4QFY13 83 19.0
31 29
4QFY13
1QFY14 68 15.3
1QFY14
2QFY14 68 14.1
24 24
2QFY14
3QFY14 55 12.6
31
3QFY14
E&P EBIT (INRb)
4QFY14 82 13.5
KG-D6 Gross Oil (TMT)
27
4QFY14
1QFY15 72 13.1
Exhibit 12: E&P returns to profitability led by lower depletion
31
1QFY15
2QFY15 68 12.6
2QFY15
3QFY15 68 12.0
24 20
3QFY15
Exhibit 13: KG-D6 gross production averaged 7.5mmscmd in 3QFY17
4QFY15 68 11.4
13
4QFY15
1QFY16 55 11.5
20
1QFY16
2QFY16 53 11.5
12
2QFY16
3QFY16 49 10.7
25
3QFY16
E&P: KG-D6 decline continues; shale outlook challenging
4QFY16 45 9.7
(2)
10 12 15 17 19 17 15 16 15 15 13 10 10 9 6 5 4 4 5 4 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 (27) 0 0
3QFY17
(20)
9
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Reliance Industries
Reliance Industries
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 15: RIL production down 30.8% YoY and 9.4% QoQ (RIL Production Share bcfe)
Shale gas vol, net (bcfe)
52.1 49.4 49.3 51.0 54.2 50.6
48.6 49.8
42.3 44.2 44.5
41.4
37.6 35.9 37.5
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL
16 January 2017 10
Reliance Industries
Exhibit 16: Reliance retail has opened 111 stores in 3QFY17, increasing presence increased to 686 cities
1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
No. of stores (No.) 1,723 2,006 2,285 2,621 2,747 2,857 3,043 3,245 3,383 3,442 3,553
Addition 212 437 279 336 126 110 186 202 138 59 111
No. of Cities 148 155 166 200 210 250 371 532 679 679 686
Avg. stores per city 12 13 14 13 13 11 6 6 5 5 5
Source: Company, MOSL
1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
16 January 2017 11
Reliance Industries
Exhibit 20: RIL: Sum of the parts valuation (on FY19 basis)
Sum of the parts (on FY19 basis) Remarks/Methodology
Core business
Refining 471 6x FY19 EBITDA
Petchem 470 6x FY19 EBITDA
E&P 68
KG D6 10 DCF
PMT 13 DCF
NEC-25 4 USD 5/boe
CBM 8 USD 5/boe
Shale (46) 7x EV/EBITDA FY19
KG basin exploratory upside 78 USD 5/boe
Investments
RGTIL 7 Book value
Reliance Retail 88 .7x FY19 sales
RJio 19 As per our telecom analyst
Total 1,122
Net debt / (cash) 66
Target price 1,057
16 January 2017 12
Reliance Industries
PAT (INRb) PAT - YoY (%) 14.1 RoCE (%) RoE (%)
24.9
20.7 12.6
12.1 12.0
11.7 11.6 11.4
11.0 10.9
8.9
200 6.6 10.6
4.8 4.7 4.8 9.8 9.6 9.6 9.5
3.3 9.2 9.2
8.9
8.2
203 210 220 227 274 292 318 333
(1.2)
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 24: Expect petchem EBITDA contribution to increase going forward, followed by refining
Refining Petchem E&P Total 468
436 443 456
389 10 7
28 11
353 342
307 326 326
143 169 231 230
141 40 37
240 238 101 58
206 104 118
20 24 96 110
17 117 112
97 94
93 111 265 264
214 231
172 176 187
123 120 131 140
96 92
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
16 January 2017 13
Reliance Industries
Exhibit 25: Segmental EBITDA break-up (%) - E&P a Exhibit 26: Expect E&P production to decline; though new
dampener, refining and petchem outshine policy can boost long-term production (mmscmd)
Refining Petrochemicals E&P
100 56.2 Gas Production (mmscmd)
80 42.6
39.8
60
26.5
40
13.8 12.2
20 8.4 7.8 6.7 5.7
-
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 27: RIL refining margins improved in FY16 (USD/bbl) Exhibit 28: We expect petchem EBITDA to improve in
after staying flat in recent years FY18/19
Singapore GRM Premium/(disc) RIL GRM
10.8 10.4 Petchem EBITDA (INRb) 231 230
9.2 9.0 9.4
8.4 8.6 8.5 8.8
3.3 169
6.9 0.3 1.4 143
2.5 4.8 4.0
3.2 2.8 3.6 117 118
111 112 110
96
3.3
8.3 7.9 7.5
5.6 6.4 5.6 5.4 5.4
5.2
3.6
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 29: Dividend Payout stabilized in recent years (%) Exhibit 30: RIL 1Yr Fwd P/E Chart (last 10 years)
Dividend payout (%) PE (x) Peak(x) Avg(x) Min(x)
20 26.5
26
16 21
16 13.4
12
11 8.7
10.2
8 6
Jun-09
Jun-14
Dec-06
Mar-08
Sep-10
Dec-11
Mar-13
Sep-15
Dec-16
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
16 January 2017 14
Reliance Industries
16 January 2017 15
Reliance Industries
16 January 2017 16
Reliance Industries
Corporate profile
Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased
Company description
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), a Fortune 500
company, is India's largest private sector entity,
with a turnover of USD66.8b and net profit of USD3.
9b. Over the years, RIL has grown through backward
integration in energy chain (textiles, petchem,
refining and E &P) and is now moving into new
areas like organized retail and BWA. It operates one
of the largest refining capacity of 1.24mmbbl/d at a
single location and is the largest producer of
polyester fibre and yarn.
Source: MOSL/Bloomberg
Source: Capitaline
16 January 2017 17
Disclosures
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