Hero Motocorp: Play On Rural Recovery
Hero Motocorp: Play On Rural Recovery
Hero Motocorp: Play On Rural Recovery
Hero MotoCorp
BUY
INDUSTRY AUTOS Play on rural recovery
CMP (as on 09 Feb 2017) Rs 3,265 Hero Motocorps (HMCL) 3QFY17 EBITDA at Rs Highlights of the quarter
10.8bn (-4.5% YoY) was above estimates, led by
Target Price Rs 3,704 lower RM costs (control on vendor pricing) and leap Steady market share: HMCLs motorcycle market
Nifty 8,778 programme benefit. This, along with lower other share in 3Q increased sequentially to 50.5% (+70bps
Sensex 28,330 expenses (-8% YoY, -12% QoQ) resulted in a 131bps YoY), driven by strong volumes of CD Dawn,
KEY STOCK DATA YoY rise in EBITDA margin to 17%. APAT at Rs 7.7bn Splendor Plus and Achiever. In the scooter segment,
(-2.7% YoY) was above estimates, led by higher other market share remained stable at 14.2%. Currently,
Bloomberg HMCL IN
income. HMCLs dealer inventory stands at 6-7 weeks, slightly
No. of Shares (mn) 200
above the normal level of 5-5.5 weeks.
MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 652 / 9,738 We anticipate a gradual 2W volume recovery in
6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,425 4QFY17, once the impact of demonetisation ebbs. Bleak exports outlook: Export volumes continue to
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) The domestic 2W industry is expected to witness a
remain weak (-16% YoY at 43K). Headwinds in major
recovery in FY18, driven by rural growth. With ~50%
52 Week high / low Rs 3,740 / 2,438 countries viz Nigeria, Congo, Egypt, Colombia and
sales from rural markets, we believe HMCL is likely to
3M 6M 12M Nigeria are likely to continue for some more time.
benefit from improving market share in the economy
Absolute (%) 0.9 (4.3) 26.5
and executive segments, as well as in scooters. Near-term outlook: Expect a gradual recovery in 4Q
Relative (%) (3.1) (5.2) 8.6
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
We have revised FY17/18/19E earnings estimates by volumes, owing to an ebbing of the effect of the
-2% to +8% to factor in margins and weaker exports. demonetisation jolt and marriage season demand.
Promoters 34.64
Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 3,704 (17x Dec- However, rise in commodity prices could put
FIs & Local MFs 15.26
18E Core EPS - Rs 207 + 1x cash-Rs 189). margins under pressure in 4Q.
FIIs 41.08
Public & Others 9.02 Financial Summary
Source : BSE
(Rs mn) 3QFY17 3QFY16 YoY (%) 2QFY17 QoQ (%) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Net Sales 63,646 72,235 (11.9) 77,963 (18.4) 285,993 292,130 340,874 383,045
EBITDA (adj.) 10,797 11,308 (4.5) 13,689 (21.1) 44,470 46,336 54,671 62,195
Abhishek Jain APAT 7,720 7,932 (2.7) 10,042 (23.1) 31,322 32,391 37,431 42,584
abhishekkumar.jain@hdfcsec.com Diluted EPS (Rs) 38.7 39.7 (2.7) 50.3 (23.1) 156.8 162.2 187.4 213.2
+91-22-6171-7320
P/E (x) 20.8 20.1 17.4 15.3
EV / EBITDA (x) 13.9 13.2 11.2 9.6
Sneha Prashant
sneha.prashant@hdfcsec.com RoE (%) 41.8 36.2 36.3 36.6
+91-22-6171-7336 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
HERO MOTOCORP : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
Page | 2
HERO MOTOCORP : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
Volume Assumptions
We expect volumes to grow (in 000 units) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
at a CAGR of 8% over FY16- Economy 1,110 1,168 1,215 1,372 1,482
19E. We believe the % YoY 6.9 5.2 4.0 13.0 8.0
Executive 4,464 4,367 4,323 4,863 5,252
governments increased
% YoY 5.6 (2.2) (1.0) 12.5 8.0
thrust on improving rural
Premium 106 69 69 80 100
income and better Rabi
% YoY (30.4) (35.1) 1.0 15.0 25.0
crops production will drive
Domestic Motorcycles 5,680 5,603 5,607 6,315 6,834
motorcycle demand in rural
% YoY 4.8 (1.3) 0.1 12.6 8.2
markets
Domestic Scooters 752 819 804 966 1,302
While the impact of % YoY 7.8 8.9 (1.8) 20.2 34.8
demonetisation remains an Exports 200 210 192 216 252
overhang, some of the % YoY 53.0 5.1 (8.8) 12.7 16.7
economic indicators are Total Volumes 6,632 6,632 6,602 7,497 8,388
encouraging. The latest data % YoY 6.2 0.0 (0.5) 13.6 11.9
Source: SIAM, HDFC sec Inst Research
shows Rabi sowing is 3%
above the five-year average
Net Realisations
and is up 6% y-o-y, which
(Rs/vehicle) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
suggests that rural demand
Domestic 40,500 41,659 42,204 43,603 45,113
will pick up
% YoY 0.8 2.9 1.3 3.3 3.5
Exports 36,006 38,526 39,297 40,476 41,690
HMCL commenced
% YoY 1.1 7.0 2.0 3.0 3.0
commercial production in
Net ASP (incl spares) 41,565 43,122 44,247 45,466 45,664
the new manufacturing
% YoY 2.7 3.7 2.6 2.8 0.4
facility at Halol, Gujarat
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
(0.75mn capacity) in 3Q
Change In Estimates
We revised FY17/18/19E New Old % chg
earnings estimates by -2% to In Rs mn
FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E
+8% to factor in margin
Net Sales 292,130 340,874 383,045 298,287 355,459 394,246 (2.1) (4.1) (2.8)
expansion and weaker
EBITDA 46,336 54,671 62,195 43,038 55,513 60,891 7.7 (1.5) 2.1
exports
Adj PAT 32,391 37,431 42,584 30,002 38,453 42,448 8.0 (2.7) 0.3
Adj EPS 162 187 213 150 193 213 8.0 (2.7) 0.3
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research
Page | 3
HERO MOTOCORP : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
margins. However, 4Q
margins will be lower owing
to input cost pressure Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Motorcycles Mix Favours Exec Segment Scooter Market Share Remained Stable
Ecomony Executive Premium Dom scooter vol (in '000) HMCL MS - RHS
There has been a shift in mix
1 1 1 1 1 1 300 22%
from the executive to 100 1 1 1
economy segment 250 20%
80
200 18%
60 79 79 77 76 77 76 73
80 79
150 16%
40
100 14%
HMCLs scooter market share 20
remained stable at 14.2% 21 20 19 20 22 23 23 24 27 50 12%
QoQ -
- 10%
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
Source: SIAM, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, SIAM, HDFC sec Inst Research
Page | 4
HERO MOTOCORP : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
marginally in 3QFY17
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: SIAM, HDFC sec Inst Research
HMCL: One-year Forward P/E Chart HMCL: One-year Forward EV/EBITDA Chart
P/E Mean P/E +1 SD -1 SD EV/EBITDA Mean EV/EBITDA
+1 SD -1 SD
24.0 16
Despite valuations being at
near median levels, we 22.0 14
believe there is still room for 20.0
an upside in the stock price 12
18.0
10
16.0
14.0 8
12.0 6
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
May-14
May-15
May-16
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
May-14
May-15
May-16
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Source: Company, Bloomberg, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, Bloomberg, HDFC sec Inst Research
Page | 5
HERO MOTOCORP : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
Peer Valuations
Mcap CMP Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%)
Reco TP
(Rs bn) (Rs/sh) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E
Maruti Suzuki 1,860 6,157 BUY 6,428 188.8 242.3 312.2 32.6 25.4 19.7 17.6 14.7 11.0 24.2 22.7 24.8
Tata Motors 1,742 513 BUY 573 37.7 54.8 55.5 13.6 9.4 9.2 6.9 5.4 3.3 14.8 18.4 15.9
Bajaj Auto 806 2,784 BUY 3,400 135.2 159.8 176.2 20.6 17.4 15.8 14.8 11.8 10.3 30.0 31.5 30.0
M&M 763 1,292 BUY 1,450 62.0 75.8 86.4 20.8 17.0 14.9 12.5 10.6 8.4 15.7 17.3 17.5
Hero Motocorp 652 3,265 BUY 3,704 162.2 187.4 213.2 20.1 17.4 15.3 14.2 11.1 9.8 34.9 38.8 37.8
Eicher Motors 648 23,893 BUY 28,603 624.3 804.9 1,010.0 38.3 29.7 23.7 28.3 22.2 17.7 36.4 34.2 33.9
Ashok Leyland 271 95 BUY 100 3.9 5.3 6.9 24.5 17.9 13.9 13.3 10.5 8.6 19.1 23.4 26.5
Force Motors 56 4,233 BUY 4,952 136.5 193.3 256.6 31.0 21.9 16.5 19.6 12.9 9.7 10.7 14.4 16.6
SML Isuzu 18 1,249 BUY 1,432 45.6 61.2 82.0 27.4 20.4 15.2 16.2 12.6 9.6 19.1 21.1 23.9
Atul Auto 9 426 BUY 507 19.2 26.2 31.1 22.2 16.2 13.7 13.5 9.5 7.9 23.1 28.5 27.7
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Page | 6
HERO MOTOCORP : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
Page | 7
HERO MOTOCORP : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
Page | 8
HERO MOTOCORP : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Date CMP Reco Target
Hero Motocorp TP 12-Feb-16 2,498 BUY 2,968
3,800 11-Mar-16 2,812 BUY 3,160
3,600 6-May-16 2,894 BUY 3,325
3,400 10-Aug-16 3,412 BUY 3,731
8-Oct-16 3,474 BUY 3,731
3,200
28-Oct-16 3,314 BUY 3,738
3,000
10-Feb-17 3,265 BUY 3,704
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200 Rating Definitions
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Apr-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Feb-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Mar-16
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
Page | 9
HERO MOTOCORP : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY17
Disclosure:
We, Abhishek Jain, MBA & Sneha Prashant, MBA authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in
this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its
Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further
Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock No
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or
arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of
warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for
information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be
construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any
locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HDFC
Securities Ltd or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may
not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purposes without prior written approval of HDFC Securities Ltd .
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived
from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HDFC Securities Ltd may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services
for, any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments.
HDFC Securities and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies)
mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the
company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and
other related information and opinions.
HDFC Securities Ltd, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any
action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the
dividend or income, etc.
HDFC Securities Ltd and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report,
or may make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any
other assignment in the past twelve months.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report
for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or
specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research
report. Accordingly, neither HDFC Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is
not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HDFC Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach
different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served
as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research
Report. HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475
HDFC securities
Institutional Equities
Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,
Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013
Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com
Page | 10