March 1, 2018 Wealth Research

Q3FY18 Result Update

Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd
Good quarter, business momentum gaining traction Accumulate
Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd (JISL), for Q3FY18 on a consolidated basis, reported Key Data
good numbers. Revenue increased by ~31% YoY to ₹1,890 crore, on the back of Current Market Price (₹) 119
Target Price (₹) 139
~49% growth in the Hi-tech Agri Input Products Division (52% of Q3FY18 revenue),
Potential upside 16.8%
22% growth in the Plastics Division (25%) and 6% growth in the Agro Processing
Sector Relative to Market NA
Division (20%). Higher other income and stable finance cost led to net profit
Stock Relative to Sector NA
increasing by 11x to ₹67 crore. EBITDA margins contracted by 129bps to 11.8%, on
account of lower margins in the food business (impact of fire incidence and Stock Information
market spends for launch of consumer brand food). Better collection in the Micro BSE Code 500219
Irrigation Systems (MIS) and Plastic division has resulted in an improvement in NSE Code JISLJALEQS
the net working capital by 8 days QoQ to 168 days (as stated as on 31 Dec’17). Face Value (₹/Share) 2.0
No. of shares (Cr.) 49.6
Management Guidance: The management has maintained its revenue guidance of
Market Cap (₹ Cr.) 5,922
₹8,400 crore and expects EBITDA growth of 20-25% (vs 23-25% as stated earlier) for 3,992
Free float (₹ Cr.)#
FY18, with the expectation of similar revenue growth rate in Q4FY18 as in Q3FY18. 150/83
52 Week H / L (₹)
Valuation and View: Post our Q2FY18 result update click here (15 Nov’17 @ ₹100, Avg. Daily turnover (12M, ₹ Cr.) 90.2
Rating: Accumulate), the stock touched its 52 week high of ₹150 (on 29 Jan’18). #Free float is net of the amount pledged by promoters (2 crore shares)

Post the Budget FY18-19 announcement on 1 Feb’18, the stock price has witnessed
a correction of ~21% to currently trade at ₹119 (P/E of 17.8x/12x on FY19E/FY20E Shareholding Pattern (%)
Dec-17 Dec-16
basis). It is giving a return of 19% since the update. JISL has been playing out on its
Promoters 28.5 30.8
diversification strategy in the piping and food business divisions which has resulted
Mutual Funds 5.5 2.4
in better financial performance. We believe the long term triggers are intact and 34.8 42.8
FPIs
maintain our Accumulate rating. We have introduced FY20E estimates and value Others including Public 31.2 24.0
the company at 14x FY20E EPS giving us a target price of ₹139.
Issue and allotment of 3.62 crore of ₹2 each at premium of ₹78 in
Q3FY18 Consolidated Result Summary conversion of 3.62 crore compulsory convertible debentures of ₹80
Y/E Mar (₹ Cr.) Q3FY18 Q3FY17 YoY (%) Q2FY18 QoQ (%) each to Mandala Rose Co-Investment, Mauritius on preferential
basis
Revenue 1,890 1,445 30.8 1,598 18.2
EBITDA 222 188 17.9 199 11.8 1 year Indexed Price Performance
Margin (%) 11.8 13.0 -129bps 12.4 -68bps 170
160
PAT 67 6 987.3 11 529.5
150
EPS (₹) 1.35 0.12 0.21 140
Source: Company, Centrum Wealth Research 130
Business momentum gaining traction: We expect JISL’s revenue to grow by ~13% in 120
110
FY18E. Although the business momentum has started gaining traction, along with
100
additional revenue from the US acquisitions ($28.5 million vs $26 million in 90
Q2FY18), we believe the recent reduction of GST rates on drip irrigation systems 80
would take time to convert into financial performance. Further, the subdued Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18
Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd S&P BSE 200
performance of the food division, owing to the fire incidence and lower than
expected sales from JISL’s UK unit (due to weather issues), could pose as a
challenge for the company to achieve its FY18 revenue guidance. Price Performance (%)
Balance sheet restructuring in progress: As of Dec’17, as stated by the company, 1M 3M 6M 1YR
net debt increased to ₹4,378 crore (vs ₹4,341 crore as on Sept’17), on account of JISL (14.8) (0.5) 21.1 27.1
working capital requirement. Despite incurring a capex of over ₹300 crore, JISL has S&P BSE 200 (4.2) 1.9 6.4 19.5
been able to maintain positive free cash flow. We believe the same could be utilised Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Wealth Research
to reduce debt levels going ahead and expect debt to equity to be <1x levels. JISL’s
nature of business is working capital intensive, however better implementation of
the diversification strategy could help improve the same.
Mrinalini Chetty, Research Analyst
Risk factors: 1) Higher working capital cycle, 2) Unpredictable weather, 3) Increase
in competitive intensity from unorganised players, 4) Forex volatility.
Financial Summary - Consolidated
Y/E Mar (₹ Cr.) Revenue YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj.PAT YoY (%) EPS (₹) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%)
FY16A 6,322 2.8 818 12.9 48 (63.3) 0.98 122.4 11.3 1.6
FY17A 6,770 7.1 940 13.9 169 250.2 3.41 34.9 9.7 4.1
FY18E 7,647 13.0 1,009 13.2 214 26.3 4.31 27.7 9.0 4.9
FY19E 8,773 14.7 1,202 13.7 332 55.2 6.69 17.8 7.5 7.0
FY20E 10,114 15.3 1,416 14.0 494 48.8 9.95 12.0 6.4 9.6
Source: Company, Centrum Wealth Research

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Centrum Wealth Research Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd.

Q3FY18 Concall Takeaways

 Segment wise – Good growth in the Hi-tech agri input products division (52% of Q3FY18 revenue, up ~49% to ₹983 crore)
owing to good off-take in domestic market and revenue from US acquisitions, Plastic division (25% of revenue, up 22% to
₹475 crore) on the back of growth in the PE pipes, PVC Pipes & Sheet business and Agro processing division (20% of
revenue, up 6% to ₹378 crore) where in good growth was seen in India but export were subdued owing to loss of onion and
garlic inventory in fire along with slower sales in UK unit.
 Domestic revenue (51% of Q3FY18 revenue) grew 28% and International revenue (49%) grew by 33%.
 Current consolidated order book stands at ₹4,025 crore (vs ₹3,919 crore in Q2FY18) which includes orders of ₹1,832 crore
for Hitech Agri Input Products Division, ₹890 crore for Agro Processing (Jain Farm Fresh Foods), ₹1,188 crore for Plastic
Division and ₹116 crore for Other divisions. Given the recent improvement in business sentiments, the management
expects the order book to be higher by Mar’18.
 Reduction of GST rates on Drip Irrigation Products would help generate better demand on the domestic MIS retail front.
Retail sales for MIS (domestic) during the quarter grew by 11%, while H1 had witnessed subdued growth owing to
disruptions related to GST. Better traction in the domestic and overseas market to continue for the MIS division.
 In the piping division, good growth in the retail and project segments. Opportunities seen in the drinking water supply and
irrigation related projects for PVC pipe business.
 Expectation of better performance from the food business in Q4. The Spice plant and new product lines are anticipated to
add revenue from FY19 onwards. The company is evaluating IPO of Jain Farm Fresh Foods Ltd in FY19, the proceeds so
raised, if routed into the parent would be utilized to reduce debt. FY18 Food business growth north of 15% (₹1,800 crore).
In the food business the company has done good volume numbers but in value terms growth was subdued due to lower
prices of Mango that impacted realization.
 The company has improved working capital cycle by 8 days on QoQ basis in Q3FY18. It expects to improve in the same way
for FY18 vs FY17. As the company is growing and diversifying itself, the need for inventory would reduce. MIS receivables
that were at 1 year historically have now come down to 6 months, the company is aiming at getting the same down to 4
months. PVC pipes business has negative working capital.
 Other income is seen to be higher in this quarter due to the FCCB accounting wherein ₹22 crore has added, however other
expenses have also been increased with a similar amount, so gets netted off.
 In Q3FY18, tax rate was low as quantum of deferred tax was written back. Tax rate for FY18 is expected at ~22-23%, owing
to the taxes of the US acquisitions that have come down and also some credit for the food business. For FY19, better clarity
on tax rate would emerge by Mar’18.
 Aiming to improve Debt/EBITDA which stood at ~4x in FY17 to 3x in FY18E. During the year the company’s debt increased on
account of building inventory, however the same is expected to come down in Q4 (by ₹500-600 crore).

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Centrum Wealth Research Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd.

Exhibit 1: Consolidated Quarterly Performance

Y/E Mar (₹ Cr.) Q3FY17 Q4FY17 Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18
Revenue 1,445 2,232 1,681 1,598 1,890
YoY Growth % 4.8 9.9 1.3 9.9 30.8
Raw Materials 751 1,212 829 820 990
% of sales 52.0 54.3 49.3 51.3 52.4
Personnel Expenses 181 195 213 225 232
% of sales 12.5 8.8 12.7 14.1 12.3
Other Expenses 325 479 405 354 445
% of sales 22.5 21.5 24.1 22.1 23.5
EBIDTA 188 345 234 199 222
EBIDTA margin % 13.0 15.5 13.9 12.4 11.8
Depreciation 74 84 85 82 84
Interest 117 114 116 112 118
Other Income 4 11 13 15 38
Share of profit in associate 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.5
PBT 2 158 48 20 59
Provision for tax (5) 81 1 5 (9)
Effective tax rate % NM 51.0 1.3 27.7 NM
Net Profit 7 78 47 14 67
Minority Interest (MI) 0.8 0.9 2.7 3.7 0.3
Net Profit after MI 6 77 44 11 67
YoY Growth % NM 22.6 (24.2) (62.1) 987.3
PAT margin % 0.4 3.4 2.6 0.7 3.5
Source: Company, Centrum Wealth Research

From the Technical & Derivative Desk

 The stock is moving in a territory of a ‘Megaphone’ pattern from last sixteen months.
 In January, the stock tried to move above the mentioned pattern; but follow-up buying was missing and it corrected sharply.
 On weekly chart too, the stock gave a false breakout from ‘Horizontal Trendline’, which doesn’t bode well for the Bulls.
 Considering current chart structure, the stock is expected to move in a broader range of 100 – 140 in coming months.
 At current juncture, risk reward is not favourable for fresh entry as SL for long trade should be placed below 95
Exhibit 2: Technical Chart

Source: Company, Centrum Wealth Research

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Centrum Wealth Research Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd.

Financials - Consolidated
Income Statement Cash Flow
Y/E Mar (₹ Cr) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Y/E Mar (₹ Cr)# FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Revenue 6,322 6,770 7,647 8,773 10,114 Net Profit Before Tax 241 287 455 677
Growth % 2.8 7.1 13.0 14.7 15.3 Depreciation 301 337 351 360
Raw Materials 3,489 3,595 4,053 4,650 5,361 Others 536 388 396 379
% of sales 55.2 53.1 53.0 53.0 53.0 Change in working capital (376) (505) (440) (574)
Personnel Expenses 666 738 902 1,035 1,193 Tax expenses (28) (66) (123) (183)
% of sales 10.5 10.9 11.8 11.8 11.8 Cash flow from Ops 674 440 639 660
Other Expenses 1,348 1,497 1,682 1,886 2,144 Capex (300) (370) (200) (200)
% of sales 21.3 22.1 22.0 21.5 21.2 Other investing activities (117) 191 78 83
EBIDTA 818 940 1,009 1,202 1,416 Cash flow from Invest (417) (179) (122) (117)
EBIDTA margin % 12.9 13.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 Proceeds from equity 15 288 - -
Depreciation 297 301 337 351 360 Borrowings/(Repayments) (52) 300 (100) (100)
Interest 491 459 461 474 461 Dividend paid (29) (44) (46) (46)
Other Income 33 61 73 78 83 Interest paid (455) (461) (474) (461)
Share of profit in associate 3 2 2 - - Cash flow from financing (520) 83 (621) (608)
PBT 67 243 287 455 677 Net Cash Flow (263) 345 (104) (66)
Provision for tax 18 67 66 123 183
Source: Company, Centrum Wealth Research
Effective tax rate % 27.0 27.5 23.0 27.0 27.0
#Note: With the implementation of the new Indian accounting standard figures for
Net Profit 49 176 221 332 494 prior years are not comparable.
Adj.Net Profit 48 169 214 332 494
Growth % (63.3) 250.2 26.3 55.2 48.8
PAT margin % 0.8 2.5 2.8 3.8 4.9 Key Ratios
Source: Company, Centrum Wealth Research Y/E Mar FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Return ratios (%)
RoE 1.6 4.1 4.9 7.0 9.6
Balance Sheet RoCE 7.6 8.4 8.7 10.2 12.2
Y/E Mar (₹ Cr) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Turnover Ratios (days)
Share capital 95 96 103 103 103 Inventory 108 111 110 106 107
Reserves & surplus 3,969 4,062 4,513 4,799 5,246 Debtors 119 120 112 108 107
Shareholder's fund 4,064 4,158 4,616 4,902 5,349 Creditors 78 78 82 87 89
Loan fund 3,751 3,455 3,755 3,655 3,555 Fixed asset turnover (x) 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3
Minority Interest 102 109 116 116 116 Solvency Ratio (x)
Deferred Tax Liab. 480 488 488 488 488 Debt-Equity 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
Total cap. employed 8,398 8,210 8,975 9,160 9,508
Interest coverage 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.5
Net fixed assets 4,893 4,867 4,900 4,750 4,589
Per share (₹)
Deferred Tax Assets 162 149 149 149 149
Adj. EPS 1.0 3.4 4.3 6.7 10.0
Investments 38 2 2 2 2
BVPS 81.9 83.8 93.0 98.8 107.8
Eq. Accounted Inv. 68 79 - - -
CEPS 7.0 9.5 11.1 13.8 17.2
Income Tax Assets 44 39 - - -
Cash and bank 399 292 636 533 467 Dividend Ratios
Inventories 1,875 2,258 2,346 2,764 3,187 DPS (₹) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
Debtors 2,174 2,282 2,409 2,764 3,187 Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Loans & adv and OCA 1,125 1,187 1,529 1,755 2,023 Dividend Payout (%) 59.3 25.5 20.4 14.0 9.4
Total current assets 5,574 6,019 6,922 7,816 8,863 Valuation (x)
Current lia. and prov. 2,380 2,946 2,998 3,556 4,096 P/E 122.4 34.9 27.7 17.8 12.0
Net current assets 3,194 3,073 3,923 4,260 4,767 P/BV 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1
Total assets 8,398 8,210 8,975 9,160 9,508 EV/EBIDTA 11.3 9.7 9.0 7.5 6.4
Source: Company, Centrum Wealth Research. OCA – Other Current Assets EV/Sales 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9
Source: Company, Centrum Wealth Research

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Centrum Wealth Research Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd.

Appendix
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Disclosures under the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations 2014

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Member (and BSE)

Regn No.:
CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN. NO.: BSE: INB011454239
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