Sun Pharma: CMP: INR574 TP: INR675 (+18%)
Sun Pharma: CMP: INR574 TP: INR675 (+18%)
Sun Pharma: CMP: INR574 TP: INR675 (+18%)
Sun Pharma
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
34,156 10,501
CMP: INR574 TP: INR675(+18%) Buy
Bloomberg SUNP IN Operating performance in-line; Halol resolution key catalyst
Equity Shares (m) 2,406.0 Revenue fell 14% YoY to INR65.9b (1.9% miss) in 3QFY18. Gross margin
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 1,382.1 / 21.3
728 / 433
shrunk 330bp QoQ (-260bp YoY) to 68.2%, primarily due to higher raw
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 0/10/-32 material cost for Taro and change product mix. EBITDA of INR13.9b was ~1%
Avg Val, INRm 2823.0 below our estimate of INR14.1b. EBITDA margin improved ~120bp QoQ to
Free float (%) 45.6 21.2%, led by ~20% decrease in other expenses due to cost-rationalization
measures. Reported PAT declined ~75% YoY to INR3.7b, primarily due to
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
one-time expense of INR5.1b related to change in US tax laws, adjusted for
Y/E Mar 2018E 2019E 2020E
which PAT stood at INR8.8b (8.8% miss).
Net Sales 265.0 306.3 353.6
EBITDA 53.7 77.0 95.9 Improvement in US business remains key: US business declined 36% YoY
PAT 32.6 52.6 67.2 (+6% QoQ) to USD328m in 3QFY18. Note that 3QFY17 included sales from
EPS (INR) 13.6 21.9 27.9 Imatinib (six months’ exclusivity). Sequential improvement in the US
Gr. (%) -48.1 61.4 27.7 business can be attributed to re-coup of deferred sales from 2QFY18 and
BV/Sh (INR) 156.7 171.6 192.5
some expansion in market share. We expect pick-up in US sales from FY19,
RoE (%) 8.8 13.3 15.3
RoCE (%)
driven by Halol resolution, as well as commercialization of Tildrakuzumab in
7.9 13.8 16.3
P/E (x) 42.4 26.3 20.6 the US (FY19) and Seciera (2HFY19E). India business for SUNP grew ~10%
P/BV (x) 3.7 3.3 3.0 YoY to INR22.2b.
Earnings call takeaways: (a) Tildrakuzumab PDUFA date is in end-March
2018. (b) SUNP guided for a marginal miss in revenue for FY18, but
Estimate change maintained EBITDA margin guidance of 20-22% for 2HFY18. (c) SUNP
TP change rationalized its ANDA portfolio in the US due to the weak industry outlook.
Rating change (d) Expect 4Q revenues to be similar to 3Q. (e) Cost-rationalization measures
taken by the company will help improve margins.
Maintain Buy; Halol resolution key catalyst ahead: We expect the stock to
remain under pressure in the near term due to challenges related to growth
and margins. We maintain Buy rating with a TP of INR675, based on 24x
FY20E (v/s INR610, based on 24x 1HFY20E). We cut FY18/19E EPS by 6%/5%,
building in a slower recovery in the US business and margin improvement.
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Sun Pharma
Revenue Growth
61.0 51.4 2.3 (14.9) 2.1 20.4 22.7 13.2 8.2 (8.7) (24.5) (18.0) (16.3)
(%)
India 84.3 65.8 7.3 0.4 8.3 15.1 7.6 11.1 4.2 6.1 (5.0) 10.5 5.9
USA 26.4 22.6 2.2 (22.2) (5.5) 28.3 31.7 12.0 6.8 (34.7) (44.4) (45.9) (37.6)
RoW 200.3 191.2 (7.2) (16.2) (0.8) 5.8 12.3 18.7 23.8 42.0 4.9 2.6 (5.8)
API 83.0 66.2 73.2 45.2 176.6 88.2 168.2 53.9 14.0 5.2 (34.2) 5.8 1.2
Cost of sales (%) 69.2 85.7 76.5 72.9 69.7 69.0 66.5 65.7 71.1 81.9 82.9 80.0 78.8
Raw material 24.9 26.0 25.9 21.8 24.9 19.6 23.1 23.7 29.3 32.2 27.2 28.5 31.8
Staff cost 15.9 18.4 18.9 17.7 16.3 15.9 15.5 15.4 15.8 18.3 21.6 20.1 20.8
R&D cost 6.8 8.9 7.7 7.0 8.2 9.1 6.5 7.1 8.0 9.2 9.5 7.8 7.2
Other expenses 21.7 32.4 24.0 26.4 20.3 24.4 21.5 19.4 18.0 22.2 24.6 23.7 19.0
Tax Rate 60.2 (101.8) 7.2 18.7 10.0 8.0 13.4 15.1 17.7 3.2 20.4 10.0 65.2
Margins (%)
Gross Margins 75.1 74.0 74.1 78.2 75.1 80.4 76.9 76.3 70.7 67.8 72.8 71.5 68.2
EBITDA Margins 31.2 14.5 26.1 27.2 30.6 33.0 35.4 38.3 31.0 21.7 17.6 20.7 21.8
EBIT Margins 27.1 11.6 25.9 25.2 30.3 30.0 34.5 38.4 29.5 21.0 14.6 19.3 18.8
PAT margins 9.9 19.4 11.6 18.6 25.8 26.5 28.4 32.0 22.5 19.7 (5.2) 15.2 6.1
Source: Company, MOSL
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Sun Pharma
Story in charts
Exhibit 3: Revenues declined 14%YoY in 3QFY18 Exhibit 4: US business declines significantly by 36% YoY
Sales (INR b) Growth YoY (%) US sales (USD m) Growth YoY (%)
62
52 26 22 25
18
9
Thousands
24 18 5
7 13 8 -11
2 -19
-15 -11 -14
-23 -15 -34 -36
-44 -42 -44
69 62 68 69 71 76 80 78 77 68 62 66 66 546 492 487 511 486 580 608 555 511 382 351 309 328
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL
65.3
30.5
11.3 8.7 8.6 8.6 7.9
8 8 15 8 11 11
1 4 6 6 -15.4 -14.7
-5 -25.9-31.0-25.7-29.5
17 16 17 18 19 18 19 20 20 19 18 22 21 238 244 215 212 258 265 234 229 220 196 161 170 155
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
Exhibit 7: EBITDA margin Exhibit 8: R&D expense stood at 7.2% of sales in 3QFY18
EBITDA (INR b) EBITDA Margin (%) R&D cost (INR b) % of sales
8.9 9.1 9.2
33 34 34 8.2 8.5
31 31 7.7 8.0 7.8
27 29 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2
26 6.5
20 21
18 17
14
22 9 18 19 22 25 27 27 22 12 11 13 14 4.7 5.5 5.0 4.8 5.8 6.7 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.3 5.2 5.1 4.7
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
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Sun Pharma
Exhibit 9: Revenues to remain subdued over FY17-20E Exhibit 10: US generic sales to improve FY19 onwards
Formulations (INR b) API (INR b) US Sales (USD m) Growth YoY (%)
110.8
23
16 20
15
11 17 47.5 55.0 42.9 39.3
1288 14.6 14.6
8 -7.5 -1.2
6 8
5 -37.3
106 154 266 270 299 250 290 335 494 729 1130 1615 2249 2080 2054 1475 1690
53 75
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
Source: Company, MOSL Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 11: India biz to grow at 13% CAGR from FY17-20E Exhibit 12: Margins to pick up FY19 onwards
India sales (INR b) Growth YoY (%) EBITDA (INR m) EBITDA Margin (%)
82% 43.7 43.3
39.9
Thousands
Thousands
34.2
28.3 28.7 29.0
30%
22% 24% 25.1 27.1
8% 11% 15% 14% 20.3
2% 7%
24 29 30 37 67 73 77 86 99 113 20 32 49 69 77 80 88 54 77 96
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
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Sun Pharma
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Sun Pharma
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Sun Pharma
Corporate profile
Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased
Company description
Sun Pharma is among the largest players in the
domestic formulations market and the most
profitable one. It makes and markets specialty
medicines and APIs for chronic therapy areas such
as cardiology, psychiatry, neurology, etc. Sun has
forayed into regulated markets by acquiring
majority stake in CaracoPharma and has
strengthened its presence in US by recent
acquisition of Taro.
Source: MOSL/Bloomberg
Source: Capitaline
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Sun Pharma
NOTES
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Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY >=15% Sun Pharma
SELL < - 10%
NEUTRAL > - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst becomes inconsistent with the investment rating legend, the Research Analyst shall within 28 days of the inconsistency, take appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
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specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement Sun Pharma
Analyst ownership of the stock No
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