Transportation Cost and Benefit Analysis II - Applications and Case Studies
Transportation Cost and Benefit Analysis II - Applications and Case Studies
Transportation Cost and Benefit Analysis II - Applications and Case Studies
Chapter Index
Table 10.2-1 Capitol Hill to Pioneer Square Trip Summary (Urban-Peak 2007 USD)
Mode Dist- Travel Internal External Savings Over
ance Time Cost Cost Total Cost SOV
miles minutes per trip per trip per trip per day
1 Walk 2.2 41 $3.64 $0.01 $3.66 $6.05
2 Bike 2.75 10 $1.27 $0.08 $1.35 $10.65
3 Bike 3.5 16 $1.89 $0.11 $1.99 $9.37
4 Van Pool Driver 2.7 18 $3.95 $0.37 $4.32 $4.71
5 Van Pool Passenger 2.7 18 $2.57 $0.38 $2.96 $7.43
6 Van Pool Passenger, Walk 2.8 24 $3.04 $0.38 $3.41 $7.93
7 Van Pool Passenger, Walk 2.8 24 $3.04 $0.38 $3.41 $7.93
8 Van Pool Passenger, Walk 2.8 24 $3.04 $0.38 $3.41 $7.93
9 Van Pool Passenger, Walk 2.8 24 $3.04 $0.38 $3.41 $7.93
10 Bus Rider, Walk 3.2 35 $5.17 $1.27 $6.44 $0.46
11 Bus Rider, Walk 2.5 30 $4.82 $1.12 $5.94 $1.48
12 Car Pool Driver 3.4 15 $3.71 $0.81 $4.51 $4.33
13 Car Pool Passenger, Walk 3.3 20 $2.89 $0.82 $3.71 $5.93
14 Car Pool Passenger, Walk 3.3 20 $2.89 $0.82 $3.71 $5.93
15 SOV Driver 3.4 10 $3.96 $2.72 $6.68 $0.00
Totals 44.15 329 $48.91 $9.98 $58.89 $88.07
This table illustrates one of four Commute Performance Test days. Savings compared with an
SOV trip are doubled to estimate daily savings.
Shifts to alternative modes provide especially significant reductions in external costs. For
example, the calculated external cost of a trip from Capitol Hill to Pioneer Square is
about $2.60 for an SOV driver, but averages only $0.50 for other modes. If all 15 round
trips that day were made by SOV, the total external cost would have increased from
about $20 to $80. Figure 10.1-1 shows these by major cost categories.
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
Walk Bicycle Van Pool Car Pool Transit SOV
This graph compares average travel costs per passenger mile for six modes used in the 1994 Oil
Smart Commute Performance Test.
Significant Findings:
• Total savings were $616 compared with the same trips made entirely by SOV. This averages
about $11 daily savings per capita.
• External costs of SOV travel average about 5 times greater per trip than other modes.
• The greatest savings per trip resulted from vanpool riders who did not drive to their vanpool
stop. Total costs of van pool, car pool, and transit trips were sensitive to how the traveler got
to their transit stop or rideshare meeting place.
• The greatest savings per mile resulted from bicyclists, since they had low operating and
external costs but travel faster than pedestrians. The costs of bicycle and pedestrian trips are
sensitive to the time value assigned to travel.
Consider the impacts of different transport prices (defined as the perceived variable
internal cost, which includes user non-market costs such as travel time and risk) on
typical shopping trips.1 Assume a resident has three shopping options: a local store
accessible by a 1/2-mile walk, a small supermarket 2 miles away where prices average
15% lower than the local store, and a megastore 7.5 miles away where prices average
30% lower than the local store.
The current variable price of Urban Off-Peak driving is $0.41 per vehicle mile, which
includes vehicle operating costs, travel time, and internal risk. The total cost of driving,
including fixed and external costs, averages $1.20 per mile. Since walking has minimal
external costs, both price and total cost are $1.39 per mile. Including health benefits
brings the cost down to $0.91. Table 10.2-1 compares the shopping expenditure that
would justify traveling to a more distant store, based on current and full-cost pricing.
Table 10.2-1 Current Variable and Total-Cost Travel Price Impact on Store Selection
Local Store Local Megastore
Supermarket
Round Trip 1 mile walk 4 mile drive 15 mile drive
Savings over Local Store. $0 15% 30%
Current trip price. 1 x 1.15 = $1.15 4 x 0.41 = $1.64 15 x 0.41 = $6.15
Current travel price premium over Local Store. $0 1.64-1.15= 0.49 6.15-1.15=$5.00
Current shopping total to justify longer trip. $0 0.49/15% = $3.27 5.00/30% = $16.67
Full trip cost. 1 x $0.91 = $0.91 4 x $1.20 = $4.80 15 x 1.20 = $18.00
Full-cost travel price premium over Local Store $0 $4.80-0.91=$3.89 $18.00-0.91=$17.09
Full-cost shopping total to justify longer trip. $0 $4.80/15% = $32.00 $17.09/30%=$56.97
This table shows how underpricing discourages use of local services.
Because driving is underpriced, users have little financial incentive to walk 1/2 mile to a
local store, or shop at a local supermarket. At $0.41 per mile, the price of driving to a
store 2 miles away appears almost the same as the price of walking to a store 1/2 mile
away, and even a purchase under $20 justifies the 15 mile Megastore trip. But when all
costs are considered the shorter trips become more attractive, and the Megastore is only
justified for purchases over $57. This illustrates how prices that are below total costs
skew user decisions to make longer and more frequent automobile trips.
Of course, other factors affect shopping habits. It can be difficult to carry big shopping
loads without a car (although easier with a wagon or bicycle trailer), and large stores
have a wider selection of goods. On the other hand, walking and shopping at local stores
offers health, enjoyment and community contact benefits. Shopping is often part of
linked trips, which reduces per trip costs, but linked trips tend to occur during peak
periods when congestion and travel time values are high. This analysis indicates that a
portion of the savings that individuals enjoy by shopping at a large, central store are
offset by incremental external transport costs, and the discrepancy between user price and
total costs affects many travel decisions.
Some economists argue that transport costs should be considered when calculating
maximum mortgage payments.2 Currently, the increased travel expenses associated with
an automobile dependent home are not considered a cost by most lending agencies. As a
result of underpriced driving and the omission of transportation expenses in mortgage
budget analysis, home selection decisions are skewed toward automobile dependent, high
travel cost houses, resulting in greater internal and external costs.
Table 10.2-2 evaluates transportation cost impacts on home location decisions. The
Central Home reduces external costs by about $4,900 annually compared with the
Exurban Home, with a capitalized value of approximately $50,000 (the additional
housing value that could be purchased if savings were invested in the mortgage). This
implies that underpriced driving underprices exurban housing by this amount. The
Central Home saves $10,852 annually in total driving costs over an Exurban Home,
worth over $100,000 in capital value if used for mortgage payments.
Table 10.2-2 Current and Total-Cost Travel Price Impact on Home Selection3
Exurban Home Central Home Savings
Cars owned. 2 1 1
Annual Household VMT. 25,000 12,500 12,500
Annual user costs. $11,880 $5,940 $5,940
Annual external costs.4 $11,237 $6,325 $4,912
Total costs. $23,117 $12,265 $10,852
Many decisions, including where to live, involve a tradeoff between travel costs and potential
benefits. The more travel is underpriced the more automobile dependant land use, and resulting
automobile travel, can be expected.
Automobile owners typically pay approximately 21¢ per mile in fixed costs and 13¢ per
mile in variable costs to drive. Fixed costs include about 8¢ per mile in vehicle insurance,
licenses, registration, and vehicle ownership taxes, totaling about $1,000 per year.7 Table
10.3-1 shows the effect of an 8¢ per mile increase in vehicle operating costs.
Table 10.3-1 Estimated Annual VMT Impact of Marginalizing User Costs (1996 USD)8
Units Urban Peak Urban Off-Peak Rural Totals
Current Vehicle Operating Cost $ per mile 0.15 0.13 0.11
Current VMT billions 460 920 920 2,300
Revised Price (+$0.08/mile) per mile 0.23 0.21 0.19
1-10 Year Elasticity -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
1-10 Year Revised VMT billions 400 806 813 2,019
Changing insurance, registration, licensing, and taxes into variable costs would reduce overall
driving at no extra cost to users, increasing overall transportation efficiency.
The estimated 281 billion miles per year foregone represents low value driving that users
would forgo rather than pay an extra 8¢ per mile. Marginalizing these costs provides
benefits to users (who enjoy savings not currently available) and society from reduced
external costs. Table 10.3-2 shows the potential savings from this price change.
Table 10.3-2 Savings of Reduced Driving from Marginalizing User Costs (1996 USD)9
Units Urban Peak Urban Off-Peak Rural Totals
Travel Reduction billion VMT 60 114 107 281
Internal Saving $/mile 0.71 0.71 0.64
Total Internal Saving $billions $43 $81 $69 $193
External Savings $/mile 0.61 0.34 0.20
Total External Savings $billions $37 $39 $21 $97
Total Savings $billions $80 $120 $90 $290
Marginalizing costs that are currently fixed could save over $290 billion annually.
5 Vehicle owners who currently reduce their driving by 100 miles only save about $13.00. By
marginalizing these costs the same 100 mile reduction in driving would save $21.00.
6 VTPI (2008), “Pay As You Drive Vehicle Insurance,” Online TDM Encyclopedia, Victoria Transport
Policy Institute (www.vtpi.org); at www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm79.htm
7 Jack Faucett Associates (1992), Costs of Owning and Operating Automobiles, Vans and Light Trucks,
FHWA (www.fhwa.dot.gov).
8 VTPI (2008) “Transportation Elasticities,” Online TDM Encyclopedia, Victoria Transport Policy Institute
(www.vtpi.org); at www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm11.htm
9 Assumes user savings proportional to reduced driving.
Table 10.3-2 analysis oversimplifies actual travel cost savings. In practice, some reduced
automobile costs would be offset by increases in other types of travel. Table 10.3-3
recalculates the savings assuming that VMT reductions result 1/3 from reduced trips, 1/3
from reduced trip length, and 1/3 from mode shifts that are distributed equally among van
pools, car pools, bus, bicycling, walking, and telecommuting. This more accurate analysis
shows lower savings than in Table 10.4-2, but still worth over $200 billion annually.
Table 10-3.3 Accurate Savings of Reduced Driving from Marginalizing Costs (1996 USD)
Units Urban Peak Urban Off-Peak Rural Totals
Eliminated Trips billion VMT 20 38 36 192
Internal Savings $/mile $0.71 $0.71 $0.64
Total Internal Savings $billions $14 $27 $23 $64
External Savings $/mile $0.61 $0.34 $0.20
Total External Savings $billions $12 $13 $7 $31
Total Savings $billions $26 $40 $30 $96
Shortened Trips10 billion VMT 20 38 36 94
Internal Savings $/mile $0.47 $0.47 $0.41
Total Internal Savings $billions $9 $18 $15 $42
External Savings $/mile $0.49 $0.30 $0.18
Total External Savings $billions $10 $11 $6 $27
Total Savings $billions $21 $31 $22 $74
Shift to each of Six Modes billion VMT 3 6 6
Internal & External Savings11 $/mile Varies Varies Varies
Total Internal Savings $billions $5 $11 $8 $24
Total External Savings $billions $10 $8 $1 $19
Total Savings $billions $15 $19 $9 $43
Total VMT Reduction billions 60 114 107 281
Total Internal Saving $billions $28 $56 $46 $130
Total External Savings $billions $32 $32 $14 $78
Total Savings $billions $60 $88 $60 $208
This analysis, more accurate than Table 10.4-2, shows annual savings over $200 billion.
Another way to marginalize user costs is to “Cash Out” free parking.12 This offers
employees who currently receive parking subsidies the option of receiving cash instead.
This benefits employers by reducing parking costs and gives a financial bonus to
emplolyees who use alternative modes. The combination of marginalizing automobile
insurance and registration, and Cashing Out employee parking could reduce current
driving about 15%, providing many billions of dollars in savings to users and society.
The foregone trips represent low value travel that automobile users are willing to
eliminate given greater choice.
10 Internal savings include user variable costs. External savings are all external costs except parking.
11 Calculated in a separate spreadsheet.
12 VTPI (2008), “Commuter Financial Incentives,” Online TDM Encyclopedia,
(www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm9.htm)
$0.25
$0.20
$0.15
$0.10
$0.05
$0.00
e
el n
p
e
ol s
t D ise
nd Fa ng
Tr rier te r
ty
ge s
p e sh
as
n
te
es
Im s
Se ect
R stio
m
o n ct
hi
rP e
av io
se tie
ho alu
G La n t io
si
as
ki
Ai urc
ic
G
a
a
C pa
o
Tr rat
Ti
rs
f ic Ef f
er
r
U cili
lu
Ba W
N
ar
rv
V
W
cle C
ne
iv
o
P
us
d
es
w
O
O
La d
or
oa
en
e
af
sp
icl
hi
re
an
eh
Ve
Tr
V
Since travel time is a high ranking cost, it could be argued that projects that increase
travel speeds offer significant potential benefits. However, as discussed in Section 5.4,
people tend to maintain a constant travel time budget, so the benefits of increased travel
speeds translate into more and longer trips, and shifts in activity locations, called
generated traffic (the additional peak-period travel on the improved route, including
shifts in time and route) and induced vehicle travel (absolute increases in total per capita
vehicle mileage).13 Most highway investment analyses compare construction financial
costs against long-term congeston reduction benefits, primarily travel time and vehicle
operating cost savings. However, it is accurate to compare short-term congestion
financial costs and time delays (due to construction) plus long term incremental cost
increases from induced travel, against medium-term congestion reduction benefits.
Table 10.4-1 compares the costs typically reduced and increased with highway
expansion. Conventional project economic evaluation considers a limited set of costs
(italicized). Many of the costs that tend to increase with induced travel are overlooked.
As a result, conventional evaluation tends to exaggerate highway expansion benefits, and
therefore undervalues alternative congestion reduction solutions such as pricing reforms,
grade separated HOV and transit routes, and commute trip reduction programs.
13Todd Litman (2001), “Generated Traffic; Implications for Transport Planning,” ITE Journal
(www.ite.org), Vol. 71, No. 4, April, pp. 38-47; at www.vtpi.org/gentraf.pdf.
Current road pricing and planning practices lead to overinvestment in both money and
urban land in roads and parking facilities.14 Empirical evidence indicates that traffic
congestion imposes a relatively minor constraint to economic activity: cities such as
Hong Kong, Tokyo, New York, London and Paris, have intense traffic congestion yet are
economically successful. Although traffic congestion is clearly an economic cost, it does
not appear to be a significant burden if people have alternative access options such as
grade separated public transit and neighborhood stores.
14 Takahiro Miyao and Yoshitsugu Kanemoto (1987), Urban Dynamics and Urban Externalities, Harwood
Academic Publishers (NY), pp. 77-87.
15 Robert Johnston and Raju Ceerla (1996), “The Effects of New High-Occupancy Vehicle Lanes on
Travel and Emissions,” Transportation Research, Vo. 30A, No. 1, pp. 35-50.
16 H.C.W.L. Williams and W.M. Lam (1991), “Transport Policy Appraisal With Equilibrium Models I:
Generated Traffic and Highway Investment Benefits,” Transport. Research B, Vol. 28 No. 5, pp. 253-279.
Figure 10.5-1 illustrates estimated costs likely to decline due to traffic calming and other
traffic management strategies, assuming that the same amount of driving takes place but
at lower speeds.18 This analysis indicates that local environmental and social costs are
significant compared with other transport costs.19 Current roadway evaluation practices
ignore many of these impacts, skewing road design to favor vehicle traffic at the expense
of local environmental objectives and alternative modes.
$0.30
$0.15
$0.10
$0.05
$0.00
er Pa h
U rE s
Tr a ff d V s
re ir P rsity
as
e
R o ng in g
u s io n
p hip
W s
l P in g
te
iv s
In ve l on
Im ect
h
W r
Fa on
sp Se lu e
e
E n al ra s
nd ie ce
ie
t D ce
rn Tim
In r na ra s
ct
e s is
as
at
G
ti
d sti
La cilit
e er s
pa
o
h o lut
C a rk
se ff
a
na rk
L a Bar our
Tr e ra
o r rvi
e
r lC
N
te C
e
oa e
e n ol
hi wn
Ex a l
Tr n
O
r
Ve le O
R
an c
A
i
te
cl
te
c
xt
hi
G
Ve
17 VTPI (2008), “Traffic Calming,” Online TDM Encyclopedia, Victoria Transport Policy Institute
(www.vtpi.org); at www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm4.htm
18 Based on an average of Urban Peak and Off-Peak costs, with noise and barrier effect costs doubled to
represent higher impacts on neighborhood streets.
19 This does not include additional long term benefits resulting from reducing automobile dependency.
Table 10.6-1 summarizes how various cost categories are affected by changing from
petroleum to electric propulsion. A number of costs are reduced, although none are
eliminated by electric vehicles. In particular, tailpipe air pollution is shifted to electrical
generation facilities, and engine noise is reduced, although tire noise is not.
1. Standard Electric. This is based on current electric car ownership and operating costs, which
are higher than a standard automobile. This uses the electric vehicle costs defined earlier in
this report.
2. Cheaper Electric. This assumes that electric car costs will decline in the near future due to
increased production. Ownership and operating costs are equal that of an average automobile,
and other costs are as defined earlier for an electric vehicle.
3. Neighborhood Vehicle. These are small, inexpensive, low power, low speed electric vehicles
intended for local urban travel.21 These are estimated to reduce all costs except travel time,
congestion, and road services (policing, planning, etc.) by 50%.22
Figure 10.6-1 shows the total costs of these four vehicles by major category. Although
Standard Electric cars reduce some non-market externalities, their current high ownership
and operating costs make them slightly more expensive overall. Of course, these average
values underestimate the cost differential in urban areas where noise and local air
20 Although road facility costs do not actually increase, electric vehicle use does not contribute to
dedicated fuel taxes, so their subsidy is greater based on the cost analysis framework used in this report.
21 Daniel Sperling (1995), “Prospects for Neighborhood Electric Vehicles,” Transportation Research
Record 1444 (www.trb.org), p. 16-22.
22 This estimate is somewhat arbitrary since specific performance and cost data are not available.
pollution costs are relatively high.23 Assuming that reduced future production costs will
make Cheaper Electric cars available, overall savings are possible. However, electric cars
do not reduce many external costs of driving, including parking subsidies, accident risk,
urban sprawl, or inequity. To significantly reduce total costs requires an inexpensive,
efficient, safe, small vehicle that does not encourage urban sprawl, such as the
Neighborhood Car.
$0.50
$0.25
$0.00
Average Standard Electric Cheaper Electric Neighborhood Car
Automobile
This graph compares cost categories of three electric vehicles and an average automobile based
on the assumptions stated above. Data is based on the previous version of this study and
presented in 1996 dollars.
23Roland Hwang, et al. (1994), Driving Out Pollution: The Benefits of Electric Vehicles, Union of
Concerned Scientists (www.ucsusa.org). Estimated electric vehicle lifecycle benefits are $17,570 in So.
California.