TB Chapter12
TB Chapter12
TB Chapter12
CHAPTER 12 BUDGETING
a. The investment timing option does not affect the expected cash flows
and should therefore have no impact on the project’s risk.
b. The more uncertainty about the project’s future cash flows the more
likely it is that Commodore will go ahead with the project today.
c. If the project has a positive expected NPV today, this means that its
expected NPV will be even higher if it chooses to wait a year.
d. All of the above statements are correct.
e. None of the above statements is correct.
Chapter 12 - Page 1
Real options Answer: c Diff: E
4
. Which of the following is an example of a flexibility option?
Chapter 12 - Page 2
Real options Answer: b Diff: E N
6
. Harmon Industries is considering adding a new store. As a final step in
reviewing the proposed project, the CFO wants to take into account two
real options that are attached to the proposed project.
First, there is a timing option. One year from now, the company will have
a much better idea of whether the county will raise or lower its property
taxes. The firm might want to wait a year to decide whether it makes
sense to proceed with their proposed project because the county taxes
could significantly affect the project’s cash flows.
Second, there is an abandonment option. After two years, the company will
have the option to shut down the store if it is determined that the store
is losing money and will continue to lose money.
Which of the following statements is most correct?
a. The greater the uncertainty regarding the county tax rates, the less
valuable is the option to delay the project.
b. The abandonment option is likely to increase the project’s expected
cash flows.
c. The abandonment option is likely to increase the project’s risk.
d. Statements a and b are correct.
e. All of the statements above are correct.
a. The company would have the option to withdraw from the investment after
2 years, if it turns out to be unprofitable.
b. The investment would increase the odds of the company being able to
subsequently make a successful entry into the China market.
c. The investment would preclude the company from being able to make a
profitable investment in Japan.
d. Statements a and b are correct.
e. All of the statements above are correct.
Chapter 12 - Page 3
Miscellaneous capital budgeting topics Answer: d Diff: E N
9
. Which of the following statements is most correct?
Medium:
Chapter 12 - Page 4
company’s optimal capital budget.
Chapter 12 - Page 5
Multiple Choice: Problems
Easy:
Optimal capital budget and divisional risk Answer: c Diff: E
13
. Shanahan Inc. has two divisions: Division A makes up 50 percent of the
company, while Division B makes up the other 50 percent. Shanahan’s beta
is 1.2. Looking at stand-alone competitors, Shanahan’s CFO estimates that
Division A’s beta is 1.5, while Division B’s beta is 0.9. The risk-free
rate is 5 percent and the market risk premium is 5 percent. The company is
100 percent equity-financed. (WACC = ks, the cost of equity).
The company is debating which cost of capital they should use to evaluate
Division B’s projects. John Green argues that Shanahan should use the same
cost of capital for each of its divisions, and believes it should base the
cost of equity on Shanahan’s overall beta. Becky White argues that the
cost of capital should vary for each division, and that Division B’s beta
should be used to estimate the cost of equity for Division B’s projects.
If the company uses White’s approach, how much larger will the capital
budget be than if it uses Green’s approach?
Chapter 12 - Page 6
Replacement chain Answer: b Diff: E
.
14
Jayhawk Jets must choose one of two mutually exclusive projects. Project A
has an up-front cost (t = 0) of $120,000, and it is expected to produce
cash inflows of $80,000 per year at the end of each of the next two years.
Two years from now, the project can be repeated at a higher up-front cost
of $125,000, but the cash inflows will remain the same. Project B has an
up-front cost of $100,000, and it is expected to produce cash inflows of
$41,000 per year at the end of each of the next four years. Project B
cannot be repeated. Both projects have a cost of capital of 10 percent.
Jayhawk wants to select the project that provides the most value over the
next four years. What is the net present value (NPV) of the project that
creates the most value for Jayhawk?
a. $34,425
b. $30,283
c. $29,964
d. $29,240
e. $24,537
a. $ 677.69
b. $1,098.89
c. $1,179.46
d. $1,237.76
e. $1,312.31
Chapter 12 - Page 7
Investment timing option Answer: d Diff: E N
16
. Marichal Motors is considering an investment in a proposed project. Rather
than making the investment today, the company wants to wait a year to
collect additional information about the project. If Marichal waits a
year, it will not have to invest any cash flows unless it decides to make
the investment. If it waits, there is a 25 percent chance the project’s
expected NPV one year from today will be $10 million, a 50 percent chance
that the project’s expected NPV one year from now will be $4 million, and
a 25 percent chance that the project’s expected NPV one year from now will
be -$10 million. All expected cash flows are discounted at 10 percent.
What is the expected NPV (in today’s dollars) if the company chooses to
wait a year before deciding whether to make the investment?
a. $2.9889 million
b. $3.1496 million
c. $3.6875 million
d. $4.0909 million
e. $4.5000 million
Medium:
Borden’s CFO has determined that the company’s WACC is 12 percent. Over a 10-
year extended basis, which system is the better system and what is its NPV?
Chapter 12 - Page 8
Replacement chain Answer: c Diff: M
18
. Doherty Industries wants to invest in a new computer system. The company
only wants to invest in one system, and has narrowed the choice down to
System A and System B.
The company needs a computer system for the 6-year period, after which
time the current owners plan on retiring and liquidating the firm. The
company’s cost of capital is 11 percent. What is the NPV (on a 6-year
extended basis) of the system that creates the most value to the company?
a. $ 17,298.30
b. $ 22,634.77
c. $ 31,211.52
d. $ 38,523.43
e. $103,065.82
The company’s cost of capital is 10.5 percent. What is the net present
value (on a 6-year extended basis) of the most profitable machine?
a. $23,950
b. $41,656
c. $56,238
d. $62,456
e. $71,687
Chapter 12 - Page 9
Replacement chain Answer: d Diff: M
20
. A small manufacturer is considering two alternative machines. Machine A
costs $1 million, has an expected life of 5 years, and generates after-tax
cash flows of $350,000 per year. At the end of 5 years, the salvage value
of the original machine is zero, but the company will be able to purchase
another Machine A at a cost of $1.2 million. The second Machine A will
generate after-tax cash flows of $375,000 a year for another 5 years at
which time its salvage value will again be zero. Alternatively, the
company can buy Machine B at a cost of $1.5 million today. Machine B will
produce after-tax cash flows of $400,000 a year for 10 years, and after 10
years it will have an after-tax salvage value of $100,000. Assume that the
cost of capital is 12 percent. If the company chooses the machine that
adds the most value to the firm, by how much will the company’s value
increase?
a. $347,802.00
b. $451,775.21
c. $633,481.19
d. $792,286.54
e. $811,357.66
a. $10,225.18
b. $11,736.26
c. $12,043.10
d. $13,424.66
e. $14,081.19
Chapter 12 - Page 10
Replacement chain Answer: e Diff: M N
22
. Projects X and Y have the following expected net cash flows:
Project X Project Y
Time Cash Flow Cash Flow
0 -$500,000 -$500,000
1 250,000 350,000
2 250,000 350,000
3 250,000
Assume that both projects have a 10 percent cost of capital, and each of
the projects can be indefinitely repeated with the same net cash flows.
What is the 6-year extended NPV of the project that creates the most
value?
a. $184,462.62
b. $204,844.61
c. $213,157.77
d. $248,803.75
e. $269,611.38
Project A Project B
Year Cash Flow Cash Flow
0 -$300 -$300
1 150 200
2 150 200
3 150
Assume that each project has a 10 percent cost of capital, and assume that
the company is not capital constrained. Which of the following statements
is most correct?
Chapter 12 - Page 11
Investment timing option Answer: b Diff: M
24
. Nebraska Instruments (NI) is considering a project that has an up-front
cost at t = 0 of $1,500,000. The project’s subsequent cash flows
critically depend on whether its products become the industry standard.
There is a 75 percent chance that the products will become the industry
standard, in which case the project’s expected cash flows will be $500,000
at the end of each of the next seven years (t = 1 ... 7). There is a 25
percent chance that the products will not become the industry standard, in
which case the expected cash flows from the project will be $50,000 at the
end of each of the next seven years (t = 1 ... 7). NI will know for sure
one year from today whether its products will have become the industry
standard. It is considering whether to make the investment today or to
wait a year until after it finds out if the products have become the
industry standard. If it waits a year, the project’s up-front cost at t =
1 will remain at $1,500,000. If it chooses to wait, the subsequent cash
flows will remain at $500,000 per year if the product becomes the industry
standard, and $50,000 per year if the product does not become the industry
standard. However, if it decides to wait, the subsequent cash flows will
be received only for six years (t = 1 ... 7). Assume that all cash flows
are discounted at 10 percent. If NI chooses to wait a year before
proceeding, how much will this increase or decrease the project’s expected
NPV in today’s dollars (t = 0), relative to the project’s NPV if it
proceeds today?
a. $135,472
b. $229,516
c. $386,512
d. $494,337
e. $616,028
Chapter 12 - Page 12
Investment timing option Answer: a Diff: M N
25
. Gibson Grocers is considering a proposed project. The company estimates
that if it invests in the project today, the project’s estimated NPV is
$10 million, but there remains a lot of uncertainty about the project’s
profitability.
a. $ 1.1607 million
b. $ 2.5000 million
c $ 5.8938 million
d. $10.0000 million
e. $11.1607 million
Chapter 12 - Page 13
Abandonment option Answer: e Diff: M
26
. Holmes Corporation recently purchased a new delivery truck. The new truck
costs $25,000 and is expected to generate net after-tax operating cash
flows, including depreciation, of $7,000 at the end of each year. The
truck has a 5-year expected life. The expected abandonment values (salvage
values after tax adjustments) at different points in time are given below.
(Note that these abandonment value estimates assume that the truck is sold
after receiving the project’s cash flow for the year.) The firm’s cost of
capital is 10 percent.
At what point in time would the company choose to sell (abandon) the truck
in order to maximize its NPV?
Tough:
Optimal project selection Answer: a Diff: T
27
. Jackson Corporation is evaluating the following four independent,
investment opportunities:
a. Project A
b. Projects A and C
c. Projects A, C, and D
d. All of the investment projects will be taken.
e. None of the investment projects will be taken.
Chapter 12 - Page 14
Optimal capital budget Answer: b Diff: T
28
. Gibson Inc. is considering the following five independent projects:
a. $ 200,000
b. $ 800,000
c. $1,200,000
d. $1,600,000
e. $2,000,000
a. $625,000
b. $450,000
c. $350,000
d. $550,000
e. $150,000
Chapter 12 - Page 15
Optimal capital budget Answer: b Diff: T
30
. Atlee Associates has a capital structure that consists of 40 percent debt
and 60 percent common stock. The yield to maturity on the company’s debt
is 8 percent, the cost of retained earnings is 12 percent, and the cost of
issuing new equity is 13 percent. The company expects its net income to be
$500,000, the dividend payout is expected to be 40 percent, and its tax
rate is 40 percent. The company is considering five projects, all with the
same risk. The size and estimated returns of the proposed projects are
listed below:
a. $800,000
b. $600,000
c. $400,000
d. $300,000
e. $200,000
The company estimates that the project will last for four years.
The company will need to purchase new machinery that has an up-front
cost of $300 million (incurred at t = 0). At t = 4, the machinery
has an estimated salvage value of $50 million.
The machinery will be depreciated on a 4-year straight-line basis.
Production on the new ketchup product will take place in a recently
vacated facility that the company owns. The facility is empty and
Bucholz does not intend to lease the facility.
The project will require a $60 million increase in inventory at t =
0. The company expects that its accounts payable will rise by $10
million at t = 0. After t = 0, there will be no changes in net
operating working capital, until t = 4 when the project is completed,
and the net operating working capital is completely recovered.
The company estimates that sales of the new ketchup will be $200
million each of the next four years.
The operating costs, excluding depreciation, are expected to be $100
million each year.
The company’s tax rate is 40 percent.
The project’s WACC is 10 percent.
Chapter 12 - Page 16
If Bucholz goes ahead with the project, they will have the option to pursue
a second stage project at t = 4. This second-stage project will involve a
full line of multi-colored condiments. This second stage project cannot be
undertaken, unless the first-stage project (the new ketchup product) is
undertaken today. The company estimates today, that if they want to go
ahead with the second stage project that this will require a significant
expenditure at t = 4. However, the company does not have to decide whether
to pursue the second stage project or to spend any funds on the second
stage project until t = 4. Currently, the company’s analysts estimate that
there is a 25 percent chance that demand will be high and the second stage
will have an estimated NPV (at t = 4) of $40 million, and there is a 75
percent chance that demand will be weak and the second stage will have an
estimated NPV (at t = 4) of -$75 million. Furthermore, the analysts
believe that, by the fourth year (at t = 4), consumer preferences and
demands for the second stage project will be known with certainty. Assume
that all cash flows are discounted at the cost of capital (10 percent).
How much of an impact will this second stage option have on the company’s
decision to pursue the first stage project today?
a. Since the second stage project has an expected NPV that is negative,
the existence of the second stage project makes it less likely that the
company will go ahead with the first stage project today.
b. Since the second stage project has an expected NPV that is negative,
the company will never pursue the second stage project, therefore it
will have no impact on the company’s decision to undertake the first
stage project today.
c. Even though there is a second stage project, the company will reject
the first stage project as long as the NPV of the first stage project
is less than zero.
d. The existence of the second stage project means that the company will
proceed with the first stage project as the long as the NPV of the
first stage project (calculated at t = 0) is greater than negative $10
million (i.e., NPV of first stage > -$10 million.)
e. The existence of the second stage project means that the company will
proceed with the first stage project as the long as the NPV of the
first stage project (calculated at t = 0) is greater than negative
$6.83 million (i.e., NPV of first stage > -$6.83 million.)
Chapter 12 - Page 17
Multiple Part:
a. -$ 875,203
b. -$ 506,498
c. $ 54,307
d. -$1,104,607
e. $ 105,999
a. $ 199,328
b. $ 561,947
c. $ 898,205
d. -$1,104,607
e. -$2,222,265
Chapter 12 - Page 18
Project’s NPV Answer: a Diff: E
34
. Based on this information, what is the project’s expected net present
value?
a. -$ 6,678
b. $20,004
c. -$24,701
d. $45,965
e. $15,303
a. $ 0
b. $ 2,075
c. $ 4,067
d. $ 8,945
e. $10,745
Fair Oil owns a tract of land that may be rich with oil. Fair must decide
whether or not to drill on this land. Fair estimates that the project would
cost $25 million today (t = 0), and generate positive net cash flows of $10
million a year at the end of each of the next four years (t = 1, 2, 3, and 4).
While the company is fairly confident about its cash flow forecast, it
recognizes that if it waits 1 year, it would have more information about the
local geology and the price of oil. Fair estimates that if it waits one year,
the project will cost $26 million (at t = 1). If Fair Oil waits a year, there
is an 80% chance that market conditions will be favorable, in which case the
project will generate net cash flows of $12 million a year for four years (t =
2, 3, 4, and 5). There is a 20% chance that market conditions will be poor, in
which case the project will generate net cash flows of $2 million a year for
four years (t = 2, 3, 4, and 5). After finding out the market conditions at t =
1, Fair will then decide whether to invest in the project (i.e., it is not
obligated to undertake the project). Assume that all cash flows are discounted
at 10 percent.
a. $4.62 million
b. $5.15 million
c. $5.80 million
Chapter 12 - Page 19
d. $6.22 million
e. $6.70 million
Investment timing option Answer: c Diff: M N
37
. Fair must decide if it makes sense for the company to wait a year to
drill. If it waits a year, what would be the expected net present value
(NPV) at t = 0?
a. $7.629 million
b. $8.262 million
c. $8.755 million
d. $9.264 million
e. $9.391 million
Chapter 12 - Page 20
CHAPTER 12
ANSWERS AND SOLUTIONS
Chapter 12 - Page 21
1. Abandonment option Answer: b Diff: E
The option to abandon will increase expected cash flow and decrease risk. If a
firm has the option to abandon a project, it will choose to do so only when
things look bad (negative NPV). Thus, abandoning a project eliminates the
low/negative cash flows. Therefore, statement b is correct.
By having the ability to wait and see you reduce the risk of the project.
Therefore, statement a is false. The greater the uncertainty, the more value
there is in waiting for additional information before going on with a project.
Therefore, statement b is false. Statement c is not necessarily true. By
waiting to do a project you may lose strategic advantages associated with being
the first competitor to enter a new line of business, which may alter the cash
flows. Since statements a, b, and c are false, the correct choice is statement
e.
By failing to consider both abandonment and growth options, the firm’s capital
budget would be too small. In both cases, the firm might reject what might
otherwise be profitable projects if these options had been considered.
Therefore, the correct choice is statement a.
Find the WACCs using both John’s and Becky’s methods. (WACC = k s because there
is no debt).
Therefore, John would only choose Project 1, because it is the only project
whose IRR exceeds its cost of capital. Consequently, the firm’s capital budget
(based on John’s WACC) is only $400 million.
Becky would choose projects 1, 2, 3, and 4 because all of these projects have an
IRR that exceeds the Division’s 9.5 percent cost of capital. Based on Becky’s WACC,
the firm’s capital budget would be $1,270 million ($400 + $300 + $250 + $320).
Therefore, the firm’s capital budget based on Becky’s WACC is $870 million ($1,270
- $400) larger than the one based on John’s WACC.
Step 1: Determine each project’s cash flows during the 4-year period.
Step 2: Determine each project’s NPV by entering the cash flows into the cash
flow register and using 10 percent for the cost of capital.
S: 0 k = 10% 1 2 3 4
| | | | |
-8,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
-8,000
-3,000
IRRS = 16.26%.
NPVS = $1,237.76. (extended NPV)
L: 0 k = 10% 1 2 3 4
| | | | |
-11,500 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000
IRRL = 14.66%.
NPVL = $1,179.46.
Expected NPV one year from now = 0.25($10 million) + 0.50($4 million) + 0.25($0) =
$4.5 million. Expected NPV in today’s dollars = $4.5 million/1.10 = $4.0909
million.
17. Replacement chain Answer: c Diff: M
System S: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Years
|12% | | | | | | | | | |
-3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
-3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
-0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
System L: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Years
|12% | | | | | | | | | |
-5 2 2 2 2 2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
-4
-2
To find the NPV of the system we must use the replacement chain approach.
Time System A System B
0 -100,000 -100,000
1 60,000 48,000
2 60,000 - 100,000 = -40,000 48,000
3 60,000 48,000 - 110,000 = -62,000
4 60,000 - 100,000 = -40,000 52,800
5 60,000 52,800
6 60,000 52,800
Use the CF key to enter the cash flows for each period and enter I/YR = 11.
This should give the following NPVs:
NPVA = $6,796.93. NPVB = $31,211.52.
Computer system B creates the most value for the firm, so the correct answer is
c.
19
. Replacement chain Answer: e Diff: M
CF0 = -1500000; CF1-9 = 400000; CF10 = 500000; I = 12; and then solve for NPVB =
$792,286.54.
21. Replacement chain Answer: c Diff: M
Bus S:
0 k = 15%
1 2 3 4 5 6
| | | | | | |
-50,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000
-50,000
-25,000
IRRS = 23.38%.
NPVS = $11,736.26 (extended NPV).
Bus L:
0 k = 15% 1 2 3 4 5 6
| | | | | | |
-75,000 23,000 23,000 23,000 23,000 23,000 23,000
IRRL = 20.80%.
NPVL = $12,043.10.
The better project will change GBL’s value by $12,043.10.
The cash flows (using the replacement chain) for both projects are:
Project X: CF0 = -500000; CF1 = 250000; CF2 = 250000; CF3 = -250000; CF4 =
250000; CF5 = 250000; CF6 = 250000; I/YR = 10; and then solve for
NPV = $213,157.77.
Project Y: CF0 = -500000; CF1 = 350000; CF2 = -150000; CF3 = 350000; CF4 =
-150000; CF5 = 350000; CF6 = 350000; I/YR = 10; and then solve for
NPV = $269,611.38.
Step 1: Calculate the expected NPV of the project today. The expected cash
flow is (0.75)($500,000) + (0.25)($50,000) = $387,500. To find the NPV
of the project, enter the following data inputs in the financial
calculator:
CF0 = -1500000; CF1-7 = 387500; I = 10; and then solve for NPV =
$386,512.
Step 2: Calculate the NPV of the project if it waits. If the firm waits, it will
know with certainty whether the product has become the industry
standard. It will do the project only if the cash flows are $500,000. To
find the NPV at t = 0 of the project if it waits, enter the following
data inputs in the financial calculator:
CF0 = 0; CF1 = -1500000; CF2-7 = 500000; I = 10; and then solve for NPV
= $616,028.
Step 3: Calculate the increase in the NPV from waiting:
$616,028 - $386,512 = $229,516.
25. Investment timing option Answer: a Diff: M N
The maximum amount that the company would be willing to pay to collect this
information would be the amount that makes the expected NPV from waiting a year
just equal to the expected NPV of proceeding today:
$10 million = $11.1607 million – (Cost of collecting information).
Abandon after Year 1: CF0 = -25000; CF1 = 27000; I = 10; and then solve for NPV
= -$455.
Abandon after Year 2: CF0 = -25000; CF1 = 7000; CF2 = 22000; I = 10; and then
solve for NPV = -$455.
Abandon after Year 3: CF0 = -25000; CF1-2 = 7000; CF3 = 17000; I = 10; and then
solve for NPV = -$79.
Abandon after Year 4: CF0 = -25000; CF1-3 = 7000; CF4 = 12000; I = 10; and then
solve for NPV = $604.
No abandonment: CF0 = -25000; CF1-5 = 7000; I = 10; and then solve for NPV =
$1,536.
Thus, the firm (in order to maximize its NPV) would never choose to sell the
truck.
Calculate the after-tax component cost of debt as 10%(1 - 0.3) = 7%. If the
company has earnings of $100,000 and pays out 50% or $50,000 in dividends, then
it will retain earnings of $50,000. The retained earnings breakpoint is
$50,000/0.4 = $125,000. Since it will require financing in excess of $125,000
to undertake any of the alternatives, we can conclude the firm must issue new
equity. Therefore, the pertinent component cost of equity is the cost of new
equity. Calculate the expected dividend per share (note this is D 1) as
$50,000/10,000 = $5. Thus, the cost of new equity is $5/[($35(1 - 0.12)] + 6% =
22.23%. Jackson’s WACC is 7%(0.6) + 22.23%(0.4) = 13.09%. Only the return on
Project A exceeds the WACC, so only Project A will be undertaken.
Calculate the retained earnings break point (BP RE) as $300,000/0.6 = $500,000.
Calculate ks as D1/P0 + g = $2(1.06)/$30 + 6% = 13.07%. Calculate k e as D1/(P0 -
F) + g = $2(1.06)/($30 - $5) + 6% = 14.48%. Find WACC below BPRE as: WACC =
0.6(13.07%)+ 0.4(9%)(1 - 0.35) = 10.18%. Thus, up to $500,000 can be financed
at 10.18%. Find WACC above BPRE as: WACC = 0.6(14.48%) + 0.4(9%)(1 - 0.35) =
11.03%. Thus, financing in excess of $500,000 costs 11.03%. Projects 2, 3, and
4 all have IRRs exceeding either WACC and should be accepted. These projects
require $450,000 in financing. Project 1 is the next most profitable project.
Given its cost of $100,000, half or $50,000 can be financed at 10.18% and the
other half must be financed at 11.03%. The relevant cost of capital for Project
1 is then 0.5(10.18%) + 0.5(11.03%) = 10.61%. Since Project 1’s IRR is less
than the cost of capital, it should not be accepted. The firm’s optimal capital
budget is $450,000.
30. Optimal capital budget Answer: b Diff: T
Step 2: Calculate the WACCs: (There will be two: one with retained earnings
and one with new equity.)
WACC1 = [0.4 8% (1 - 0.4)] + [0.6 12%] = 9.12%.
WACC2 = [0.4 8% (1 - 0.4)] + [0.6 13%] = 9.72%.
The correct answer is statement e. To see this, you must evaluate the follow-
on project after the initial project has been evaluated.
The project cash flows are shown below (in millions of dollars):
Year 0 1 2 3 4
Up-front costs -300
Increase in NOWC -50
The NPV at Year 4 of the second stage project is (0.25)($40) + (0.75)(0) = $10
million. Using your financial calculator, compare the second stage project
with the first stage project by entering the following input data (in millions
of dollars):
CF0 = -10.07; CF1-3 = 0; CF4 = 10; I = 10; and then solve for NPV =
-$3.24 million.
Statement a is incorrect. Both are negative NPV projects; so, the second stage
project has no impact on the first stage project. You would not do the first
stage project. Statement b is incorrect. This assumes the first project has a
negative NPV. The company may consider taking a first stage project with a
positive NPV and a second stage project with a negative NPV, as long as the
combined project has a positive NPV. Statement c is incorrect. If a positive
NPV second stage project is greater than the negative NPV first stage project,
the company may consider taking the project. Statement d is incorrect. Since
the NPV of the whole project needs to be positive, changing CF0 to -9.99 million
does not do the trick. It is still a negative NPV project. Statement e is
correct. Changing CF0 to -6.82 million makes the project a positive NPV
project.
Find the project’s NPV using a financial calculator and entering the following
data inputs:
CF0 = -3000000; CF1-5 = 500000; I = 10; and then solve for NPV = -$1,104,607.
0 k = 10% 1 2 3 4 5
| | | | | |
-3,000,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000
NPV = -1,104,607
+1,303,935 NPV = +6,000,000 (35%)
$ 199,328 NPV = -6,000,000 (65%)
Step 3: Find the NPV of the entire project considering its future
opportunities:
-$1,104,607 + $1,303,935 = $199,328.
Step 1: Find the project’s expected cash flows in Years 1 through 5: (0.5)
($110,000) + (0.5)($25,000) = $67,500.
Step 2: Find the project’s NPV by entering the following data inputs in the
financial calculator:
CF0 = -250000; CF1-5 = 67500; I = 12; and then solve for NPV =
-$6,678.
No abandonment:
Yr. 0 Prob
1 2 3 4 5 Prob NPV NPV
| | | | |
0.5 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 0.5 $146,525 $73,263
-250,000
0.5
25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 0.5 159,881 –79,941
E(NPV) = $-6,678
Abandonment:
Yr. 0 Prob
1 2 3 4 5 Prob NPV NPV
| | | | |
0.5 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 0.5 $146,525 $73,263
-250,000
0.5
125,000 0.5 -138,393 –69,196
E(NPV) = $ 4,067
Value of Abandonment =
$4,067 – (-$6,678) = $10,745
We can solve for NPV by entering the following data into the cash flow
register.
CF0 = -25000000; CF1 = 10000000; CF2 = 10000000; CF3 = 10000000; CF4 = 10000000;
I/YR = 10; and then solve for NPV = $6,698,654 $6,700,000.
Fair will only invest if market conditions are favorable, hence the 20% chance
of receiving $2 million annual cash flows is really 0% because the NPV < 0.
Therefore, the NPV of the project as of t = 1, can be found using the
calculator and entering the following data:
CF0 = -26000000; CF1 = 12000000; CF2 = 12000000; CF3 = 12000000; CF4 = 12000000;
I/YR = 10; and then solve for NPV = $12,038,385. But, there is only an 80%
chance of this occurring so expected NPV = 0.8 $12,038,385 = $9,630,708.
Now, we must find the NPV of the project as of Year 0, which is found by
taking the present value of $9,630,708 received in Year 1.