POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 13TH NOVEMBER 2018, 6 AM EST

UltraPoll - Ontario Edition

Voter Intentions & Rating the Ford
Government’s Decisions

13th November 2018

METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results With 20 years of political experience in all
of a survey conducted between November three levels of government, President and CEO
6th to 7th, 2018 among a sample of 1229 Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
adults, 18 years of age or older, living in international public affairs.
Ontario. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Respondents were interviewed on landlines Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
and cellular phones. snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
The sampling frame was derived from both was the only polling firm to correctly predict a
a national telephone directory compiled Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
by Mainstreet Research from various election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted
commercially available sources and random the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections.
digit dialing. The part of the survey that and the Alabama special election in 2017.
dialed from the directory was conducted as a Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
stratified dial of the following regions; Toronto Association for Public Opinion Research and
(also known as the 416 region), the Greater meets international and Canadian publication
Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), standards.
South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario,
Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the CONTACT INFORMATION
case of random digit dials, respondents were In Ottawa:
asked the additional question of what region Quito Maggi, President
of the province they resided in. quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet In Toronto:

Research and was not sponsored by a third Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
party. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

The margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.79% Find us online at:
and is accurate 19 times out of 20. www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
(full methodology appears at the end of this facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
report)
PCs MAINTAIN LEAD AS ONTARIANS OPPOSE HALT OF CAMPUS CONSTRUCTION;
NARROWLY SUPPORT MINIMUM WAGE CUT

13 November 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The Progressive Conservative government led by Doug Ford
currently have nearly a sixteen point lead over the opposition NDP.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial
polls. The poll surveyed 1229 Ontarians between November 6th and 7th. The poll has a margin of error
of +/- 2.79 % and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The gap between the PCs and the NDP has been stable and virtually the same since the election”, said
Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs enjoy 42.2% of public support (+0.5% since July), while the
NDP led by Andrea Horwath are at 27.8% (-1.3%). The Liberals with interim leader John Fraser come in
with 21.3% support (no change), while the Green Party led by Mike Schreiner have 6.7% (+0.3%).

“While the PCs lead among both genders and all age groups, we do find significant differences among
these groups,” continued Maggi. “The PCs lead by 28% among men but only lead by 4% among women,
with the Liberals splitting the vote away from the NDP. We also find a significant drop in PC support
among voters aged 18 to 34.”

When asked about the Ford government’s decision to cut funding for the postsecondary campus
extensions in the GTA, 38.7% said they at least somewhat agreed with the decision while 39.3% said
they disagreed, with 22% saying that they were not sure.

In terms of removing scaling back the minimum wage to $14 an hour, 48.9% said they agreed with the
move while 45.3% disagreed. Only 5.4% said that they were not sure.

“Ontarians are very divided over how they feel about these decisions made by the government,” added
Maggi. “While the Ford government can take solace in the fact that they have significant support for
these moves, they have to take notice that there is significant opposition to these measures.”

“Not surprisingly, more respondents in the Greater Toronto Area do not agree with the decision to
cancel the campus extensions ,” concluded Maggi. “On the other hand, voters in Toronto are opposed to
both the minimum wage cut and the cancellation of the construction of the postsecondary campuses,
where as the rest of the province are supportive of both decisions.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which
All Voters
party would you vote for?

13.3%

2.8%

5.7% 38%

All Voters

17%

All Votersand Leaning Voters

Decided
23.2%

13.3% 3.5%
6.4%
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens

2.8% Another Party Undecided

5.7% 38%
21.3% 42.2%

DecidedAll
andVoters
Leaning Voters

17%

26.5% 23.2%

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens
Another Party Undecided
Another Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(regional breakouts)

37.2%
32.6%
Toronto

20.9%
5.6%
3.8%

45.0%
24.9%
GTA

20.9%
4.3%
4.9%

49.3%
15.3%
Eastern

26.9%
5.0%
3.6%

48.5%
South Central

24.3%
22.8%
3.0%
1.5%

41.6%
Southwestern

29.9%
17.3%
8.7%
2.5%

28.9%
26.7%
North

23.1%
18.7%
2.7%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party

 As you might have heard, the Ford government has
announced that it will cancel the funding for three post-
secondary campus expansions in Markham, Brampton, and
Milton. Do you agree or disagree with this decision?

20%
22%

20%
22%

18.7%

18.7%
23.6%
23.6%

15.7%
15.7%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure

Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree

 As you might have heard, the Ford government has
announced that it will reverse the previous Liberal
government’s decision to increase the minimum wage, leaving
it at $14 an hour. Do you agree or disagree with this decision?

5.8%

34.8%
20%
22%
31.9%

18.7%

23.6%

14.1%
13.4% 15.7%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Not Sure

y Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree

Breakouts
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive Conservatives
38% 46% 30.2% 33.3% 36.5% 44.3% 37.9% 35% 40% 41.8% 44% 37.3% 25.7%
led by Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
23.2% 19.3% 26.9% 31.7% 25.3% 14.7% 20.1% 28.4% 21.1% 11.5% 22.6% 27.2% 25.2%
Horwath
Liberals led by John Fraser 17% 16% 18% 10.5% 16.5% 21.4% 21.1% 16.1% 17.6% 22% 17.2% 13.6% 18%
Greens led by Mike
5.7% 4.9% 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 4.8% 5.6% 4.8% 3.7% 4.5% 2.2% 8.2% 17.5%
Schreiner
Another Party 2.8% 2.4% 3.2% 3.8% 3.4% 2.4% 1.2% 3.6% 3.9% 1.5% 1.4% 2% 2.5%
Undecided 13.3% 11.4% 15.1% 14.7% 12% 12.6% 14.1% 12.2% 13.5% 18.7% 12.7% 11.6% 11.1%
Unweighted Frequency 1229 657 572 185 282 392 370 332 342 129 116 216 94
Weighted Frequency 1229 604 625 345 309 337 237 286 338 164 110 256 75

(leaning and undecided voters)

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive Conservatives
38.8% 47.9% 31.9% 35% 38.4% 45.7% 40% 35% 42.2% 44.9% 45.5% 39.8% 27.3%
led by Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
24.8% 21.4% 28.1% 34.4% 26.3% 15.9% 21.5% 30.7% 23.2% 13.7% 22.6% 28.3% 25.2%
Horwath
Liberals led by John Fraser 19.9% 17.9% 21.8% 11.6% 19.3% 24.5% 26.1% 19.8% 19.5% 24.4% 21.3% 16.5% 21.8%
Greens led by Mike
6% 5.1% 6.8% 6.5% 6.7% 4.8% 5.9% 5.2% 4.1% 4.5% 2.8% 8.2% 17.5%
Schreiner
Another Party 3.3% 2.5% 4% 5.2% 3.4% 2.6% 1.2% 3.6% 4.5% 3.2% 1.4% 2.4% 2.5%
Undecided 6.3% 5.1% 7.5% 7.2% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4% 5.7% 6.5% 9.3% 6.5% 4.8% 5.8%
Unweighted Frequency 1229 657 572 185 282 392 370 332 342 129 116 216 94
Weighted Frequency 1229 604 625 345 309 337 237 286 338 164 110 256 75

(decided and leaning voters)

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive Conservatives
42.2% 50.6% 34.4% 37.6% 40.7% 48.7% 42.4% 37.2% 45% 49.3% 48.5% 41.6% 28.9%
led by Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
26.5% 22.5% 30.3% 37.1% 27.9% 17% 22.6% 32.6% 24.9% 15.3% 24.3% 29.9% 26.7%
Horwath
Liberals led by John Fraser 21.3% 18.9% 23.6% 12.6% 20.6% 26.3% 27.5% 20.9% 20.9% 26.9% 22.8% 17.3% 23.1%
Greens led by Mike
6.4% 5.4% 7.4% 7% 7.2% 5.1% 6.3% 5.6% 4.3% 5% 3% 8.7% 18.7%
Schreiner
Another Party 3.5% 2.6% 4.4% 5.7% 3.6% 2.8% 1.3% 3.8% 4.9% 3.6% 1.5% 2.5% 2.7%
Unweighted Frequency 1158 626 532 171 266 369 352 318 322 118 108 204 88
Weighted Frequency 1158 569 589 325 292 318 223 269 318 155 103 242 71
As you might have heard, the Ford government has announced that it will cancel the
funding for three post-secondary campus expansions in Markham, Brampton, and
Milton. Do you agree or disagree with this decision?
18- 35- 50- Greater Eastern South Central Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto
34 49 64 Toronto Area Ontario Ontario Ontario Ontario
Strongly Agree 20% 26.4% 13.9% 21.3% 21.7% 21.7% 13.6% 16.5% 17.7% 24% 24.7% 20.7% 26.2%
Somewhat Agree 18.7% 17.3% 19.9% 16.8% 17.9% 21.8% 17.8% 23.1% 18.1% 15.7% 13.5% 19.9% 13.7%
Somewhat
15.7% 15.5% 15.8% 14.5% 13.6% 15.8% 20% 18.5% 17.1% 13.8% 12.3% 14.7% 10.6%
Disagree
Strongly
23.6% 22.7% 24.5% 22.5% 23.6% 22.6% 26.6% 27% 27.5% 19.8% 28% 17.1% 17.1%
Disagree
Not Sure 22% 18.1% 25.9% 24.9% 23.2% 18.1% 22% 14.9% 19.6% 26.6% 21.4% 27.6% 32.3%
Unweighted
1229 657 572 185 282 392 370 332 342 129 116 216 94
Frequency
Weighted
1229 604 625 345 309 337 237 286 338 164 110 256 75
Frequency

As you might have heard, the Ford government has announced that it will reverse the
previous Liberal government’s decision to increase the minimum wage, leaving it at
$14 an hour. Do you agree or disagree with this decision?
18- 35- 50- Greater Eastern South Central Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto
34 49 64 Toronto Area Ontario Ontario Ontario Ontario
Strongly Agree 34.8% 42.2% 27.6% 35.7% 36.1% 38.2% 26.9% 27.2% 34.5% 40.6% 38.7% 38.7% 33.4%
Somewhat Agree 14.1% 12.5% 15.7% 11.3% 13.1% 15.7% 17.3% 13.7% 14.3% 9.6% 15% 15.8% 18%
Somewhat
13.4% 12.4% 14.4% 12.8% 10.9% 13.2% 17.8% 14.3% 13% 13.3% 10.7% 11.6% 21.6%
Disagree
Strongly
31.9% 28.5% 35.1% 32.5% 34.5% 29.5% 31% 35.5% 32.6% 32.7% 32.7% 29.7% 19.3%
Disagree
Not Sure 5.8% 4.3% 7.2% 7.7% 5.5% 3.3% 7.1% 9.3% 5.6% 3.8% 2.9% 4.2% 7.7%
Unweighted
1229 657 572 185 282 392 370 332 342 129 116 216 94
Frequency
Weighted
1229 604 625 345 309 337 237 286 338 164 110 256 75
Frequency
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held Somewhat Disagree
today, which party would you vote Strongly Disagree
for? Not Sure
(first four responses randomized)
The Progressive Conservative Party As you might have heard, the Ford
of Ontario led by Doug Ford government has announced that
The New Democratic Party of Ontario it will reverse the previous Liberal
led by Andrea Horwath government’s decision to increase
The Ontario Liberal Party led by John the minimum wage, leaving it at $14
Fraser an hour. Do you agree or disagree
The Green Party of Ontario led by with this decision?
Mike Schreiner Strongly Agree
Another party Somewhat Agree
Undecided Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Which party are you leaning Not Sure
towards?
(only asked to respondents who said What is your gender?
they were undecided in the previous Male
question - first four responses Female
randomized)
The Progressive Conservative Party What is your age group?
of Ontario led by Doug Ford 18 to 34 years of age
The New Democratic Party of Ontario 35 to 49 years of age
led by Andrea Horwath 50 to 64 years of age
The Ontario Liberal Party led by John 65 years of age or older
Fraser
The Green Party of Ontario led by
Mike Schreiner
Another party
Undecided

As you might have heard, the Ford

government has announced that
it will cancel the funding for three
post-secondary campus expansions
in Markham, Brampton, and Milton.
Do you agree or disagree with this
decision?
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Ridings and Regions
The following shows the provincial electoral districts that pertain to each region in our
breakouts.
Toronto (416) Mississauga East--Cooksville
Beaches--East York Mississauga--Erin Mills
Davenport Mississauga--Lakeshore
Don Valley East Mississauga--Malton
Don Valley North Mississauga--Streetsville
Don Valley West Newmarket--Aurora
Eglinton--Lawrence Oakville
Etobicoke Centre Oakville North--Burlington
Etobicoke North Oshawa
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Pickering--Uxbridge
Humber River--Black Creek Richmond Hill
Parkdale--High Park Simcoe North
Scarborough Centre Thornhill
Scarborough North Vaughan--Woodbridge
Scarborough Southwest Whitby
Scarborough--Agincourt York--Simcoe
Scarborough--Guildwood
Scarborough--Rouge Park Eastern Ontario
Spadina--Fort York Bay of Quinte
Toronto Centre Carleton
Toronto--Danforth Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
Toronto--St. Paul’s Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
University--Rosedale Hastings--Lennox and Addington
Willowdale Kanata--Carleton
York Centre Kingston and the Islands
York South--Weston Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and
Greater Toronto Area Rideau Lakes
Ajax Nepean
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Northumberland--Peterborough South
Barrie--Innisfil Orléans
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ottawa Centre
Brampton Centre Ottawa South
Brampton East Ottawa West--Nepean
Brampton North Ottawa--Vanier
Brampton South Peterborough--Kawartha
Brampton West Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
Burlington Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry
Dufferin--Caledon
Durham South Central Ontario
King--Vaughan Brantford--Brant
Markham--Stouffville Flamborough--Glanbrook
Markham--Thornhill Haldimand--Norfolk
Markham--Unionville Hamilton Centre
Milton Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
Mississauga Centre Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Sarnia--Lambton
Niagara Centre Simcoe--Grey
Niagara Falls Waterloo
Niagara West Wellington--Halton Hills
St. Catharines Windsor West
Windsor--Tecumseh
Southwestern Ontario
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Northern Ontario
Cambridge Algoma--Manitoulin
Chatham-Kent--Leamington Kenora--Rainy River
Elgin--Middlesex--London Kiiwetinoong
Essex Mushkegowuk--James Bay
Guelph Nickel Belt
Huron--Bruce Nipissing
Kitchener Centre Parry Sound--Muskoka
Kitchener South--Hespeler Sault Ste. Marie
Kitchener--Conestoga Sudbury
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Thunder Bay--Atikokan
London North Centre Thunder Bay--Superior North
London West Timiskaming--Cochrane
London--Fanshawe Timmins
Oxford
Perth--Wellington
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between November 6th,
2018 and November 7th, 2018 among a sample of 1229 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in Ontario. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Ontario.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following
regions: Toronto (also known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as
the 905 region), South Central Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern
Ontario. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the province they resided in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at
random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.79% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.82%, Females: +/- 4.1%,
18-34 age group: +/- 7.2%, 35-49 age group: +/- 5.83%, 50-64 age group: +/- 4.95%, 65+ age
group: +/- 5.09%, Toronto: +/- 5.38%, Greater Toronto Area: +/- 5.3%, South Central Ontario:
+/- 9.1%, Southwestern Ontario: +/- 6.67%, Eastern Ontario: +/- 8.63%, Northern Ontario: +/-
10.11%

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls.