Ontario

Voter Intentions
25th March 2020
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
a survey conducted between March 20th, 2020 snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
among a sample of 1017 adults, 18 years of age or a majority NDP government in Alberta, and was
older, living in Ontario. The survey was conducted the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal
using automated telephone interviews (Smart majority government in the 2015 federal election.
IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines Mainstreet also accurately predicted the 2018
and cellular phones. Ontario election and was the first to predict that
a CAQ majority win in the 2018 Quebec election.
The sampling frame was derived from both Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
a national telephone directory compiled by Association for Public Opinion Research and meets
Mainstreet Research from various commercially international and Canadian publication standards.
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory CONTACT INFORMATION
was conducted as a stratified dial of the following In Toronto:
regions; Toronto (also known as the 416 region), Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
region), South Central Ontario, Southwestern
Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In Find us online at:
the case of random digit dials, respondents were www.mainstreetresearch.ca
asked the additional question of what region of twitter.com/MainStResearch
the province they resided in. facebook.com/mainstreetresearch

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research

and was not sponsored by a third party.

The margin of error for this survey is +/- 2.73%

and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

(full methodology appears at the end of this

report)
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
• The governing Progressive Conservatives find themselves in a tie with the third-party Liberals
with new leader Steven Del Duca at the helm amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs led by Premier Doug Ford has 33.1% support,
while the NDP led by Andrea Horwath has 23.2%. The Liberals with new leader Steven Del Duca have
33%. The Greens with Mike Schreiner as leader has 6.9%.

• There is a significant gender divide in terms of support. While the PCs enjoy a 14% lead
among men over the Liberals, the PCs find themselves third (23.8%), behind the NDP (28.5%), and
the Liberals (36.3%).

• Among the age cohorts, we get an interesting picture. While PC support is significantly lower
among the 18-34 age cohort compared to other age groups, they find themselves in the lead in that
age category, thanks to the NDP (28.8%) and Liberals (27.4%) having similar levels of support.

• Regionally we find the Liberals with solid leads over the PCs in Northern Ontario, the Greater
Toronto Area and Toronto, while the NDP is in a very competitive third place in Toronto. The PCs lead
in Southwestern Ontario and South Central Ontario, while the PCs and Liberals are in a statistical tie
in Eastern Ontario.

COMMENTARY FROM DR. JOSEPH ANGOLANO

“The last time we published our voting intention numbers in Ontario in May 2019, the PCs under
Doug Ford were at their lowest in terms of public opinion.

However, today, likely thanks to solid performances in handling the COVID-19 pandemic, the PCs
find themselves tied with the Liberals led by new leader Steven Del Duca.

All three major parties can claim that they have significant support among the Ontario public and
can claim positives from these findings.

The NDP still retains the support of more than one in five Ontarians, while the Liberals will be happy
to know that they are tied in public support with the governing party with their new leader. The PCs
can also take solace that they have rebounded in public opinion and will hope that their worst days
are behind them.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which
All Voters party would you vote for?

19.4%

27.4%

3.1%

5.4% All Voters

18.8%

All and
Decided Voters
25.9%
Leaning Voters

3.8%
Progressive Conservatives 13.3%
NDP
6.9% Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

2.8%
33.1%
5.7% 38%

DecidedAll
and Voters
Leaning Voters
33%

17%

23.2%
23.2%

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens

Another Party Undecided

Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 27.4% 35.6% 19.4% 24.4% 29.2% 28.6% 27.7% 21.6% 28.5% 30.3% 28.9% 32.1% 19.6%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
18.8% 14.5% 23% 23.7% 18.7% 15.9% 15.9% 22.3% 14.7% 14.3% 26.3% 19.3% 21.1%
Horwath
Liberals led by Steven Del
25.9% 23.9% 27.9% 20.5% 29.2% 28.2% 26.2% 27% 30.6% 26.8% 21.7% 18.6% 30.3%
Duca
Greens led by Mike
5.4% 4.9% 5.9% 7.1% 4.8% 6.2% 2.3% 7.1% 4.5% 5.6% 4.3% 4.8% 5.9%
Schreiner
Another Party 3.1% 3.4% 2.8% 5.8% 2.3% 1.6% 2.3% 3.9% 2.9% 2.5% 4.9% 2.1% 3.1%
Undecided 19.4% 17.7% 21.1% 18.5% 15.8% 19.3% 25.6% 18% 18.8% 20.5% 14% 23.2% 20%
Unweighted Frequency 1017 547 470 155 252 311 299 233 280 138 97 201 68
Weighted Frequency 1017 500 517 286 256 279 196 236 280 136 91 212 62

(leaning and undecided voters)

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 30.2% 39.2% 21.4% 27.2% 31% 31.1% 32.2% 26.2% 29.7% 33.2% 29.5% 35.7% 23.3%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
21.2% 16.4% 25.8% 26.9% 20.9% 17.3% 18.6% 23.7% 18.1% 17.4% 26.9% 21.6% 23.9%
Horwath
Liberals led by Steven Del
30.2% 27.4% 32.9% 25.6% 33.7% 30.9% 31.1% 31.4% 35.3% 32.8% 25.1% 21.7% 32.9%
Duca
Greens led by Mike
6.3% 5.5% 7.2% 7.9% 5.2% 7.5% 3.8% 7.4% 4.8% 6.6% 5.2% 7% 7.3%
Schreiner
Another Party 3.5% 3.8% 3.2% 5.8% 2.8% 2.2% 2.9% 4.1% 3.4% 3.3% 4.9% 2.5% 3.1%
Undecided 8.7% 7.7% 9.6% 6.6% 6.5% 11% 11.4% 7.2% 8.7% 6.6% 8.4% 11.5% 9.5%
Unweighted Frequency 1017 547 470 155 252 311 299 233 280 138 97 201 68
Weighted Frequency 1017 500 517 286 256 279 196 236 280 136 91 212 62

(decided and leaning voters)

Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 33.1% 42.7% 23.8% 29.2% 33.1% 34.8% 36.3% 28.3% 32.3% 35.7% 32.3% 40.3% 25.6%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
23.2% 17.7% 28.5% 28.8% 22.4% 19.6% 21% 25.4% 19.8% 18.6% 29.2% 24.4% 26.5%
Horwath
Liberals led by Steven Del
33% 29.6% 36.3% 27.4% 36.1% 34.6% 35.1% 33.9% 38.8% 35.1% 27.6% 24.6% 36.5%
Duca
Greens led by Mike
6.9% 5.9% 7.9% 8.5% 5.5% 8.5% 4.3% 8% 5.3% 7.1% 5.7% 8% 8%
Schreiner
Another Party 3.8% 4.1% 3.4% 6.2% 3% 2.5% 3.3% 4.4% 3.7% 3.5% 5.3% 2.8% 3.4%
Unweighted Frequency 924 504 420 145 235 278 266 215 256 128 88 175 62
Weighted Frequency 924 454 470 259 233 254 178 215 254 123 82 193 56
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote
for?
(first four responses randomized)
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario led by Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Andrea Horwath
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Steven Del Duca
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner
Another party
Undecided

Which party are you leaning towards?

(only asked to respondents who said they were undecided in the
previous question - first four responses randomized)
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario led by Doug Ford
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Andrea Horwath
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Steven Del Duca
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner
Another party
Undecided

What is your gender?

Male
Female

What is your age group?

18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Ridings and Regions
The following shows the provincial electoral districts that pertain to each region in our breakouts.

Toronto (416) Mississauga East--Cooksville

Beaches--East York Mississauga--Erin Mills
Davenport Mississauga--Lakeshore
Don Valley East Mississauga--Malton
Don Valley North Mississauga--Streetsville
Don Valley West Newmarket--Aurora
Eglinton--Lawrence Oakville
Etobicoke Centre Oakville North--Burlington
Etobicoke North Oshawa
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Pickering--Uxbridge
Humber River--Black Creek Richmond Hill
Parkdale--High Park Simcoe North
Scarborough Centre Thornhill
Scarborough North Vaughan--Woodbridge
Scarborough Southwest Whitby
Scarborough--Agincourt York--Simcoe
Scarborough--Guildwood
Scarborough--Rouge Park Eastern Ontario
Spadina--Fort York Bay of Quinte
Toronto Centre Carleton
Toronto--Danforth Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
Toronto--St. Paul’s Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
University--Rosedale Hastings--Lennox and Addington
Willowdale Kanata--Carleton
York Centre Kingston and the Islands
York South--Weston Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau
Greater Toronto Area Lakes
Ajax Nepean
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Northumberland--Peterborough South
Barrie--Innisfil Orléans
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ottawa Centre
Brampton Centre Ottawa South
Brampton East Ottawa West--Nepean
Brampton North Ottawa--Vanier
Brampton South Peterborough--Kawartha
Brampton West Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
Burlington Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry
Dufferin--Caledon
Durham South Central Ontario
King--Vaughan Brantford--Brant
Markham--Stouffville Flamborough--Glanbrook
Markham--Thornhill Haldimand--Norfolk
Markham--Unionville Hamilton Centre
Milton Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
Mississauga Centre Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Sarnia--Lambton
Niagara Centre Simcoe--Grey
Niagara Falls Waterloo
Niagara West Wellington--Halton Hills
St. Catharines Windsor West
Windsor--Tecumseh
Southwestern Ontario
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Northern Ontario
Cambridge Algoma--Manitoulin
Chatham-Kent--Leamington Kenora--Rainy River
Elgin--Middlesex--London Kiiwetinoong
Essex Mushkegowuk--James Bay
Guelph Nickel Belt
Huron--Bruce Nipissing
Kitchener Centre Parry Sound--Muskoka
Kitchener South--Hespeler Sault Ste. Marie
Kitchener--Conestoga Sudbury
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Thunder Bay--Atikokan
London North Centre Thunder Bay--Superior North
London West Timiskaming--Cochrane
London--Fanshawe Timmins
Oxford
Perth--Wellington
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between March 20th, 2020 among
a sample of 1290 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario. The survey was conducted using
Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones.
The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Ontario.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.The survey that
dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following regions: Toronto (also
known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), South Central
Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided
in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with
a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and
region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.07% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher
in each subsample.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.