Managerial Economics
Managerial Economics
Managerial Economics
MARGINAL REVENUE
(MR)
In microeconomics, Marginal Revenue (MR) is the extra
revenue that an additional unit of product will bring to a
firm. It can also be described as the change in total
revenue/change in number of units sold.
More formally, marginal revenue is equal to the change in
total revenue over the change in quantity when the
change in quantity is equal to one unit (or the change in
output in the bracket where the change in revenue has
occurred)
This can also be represented as a derivative. (Total
revenue) = (Price Demanded) times (Quantity) or
. Thus, by the product rule:
.
For a firm facing perfectly competitive markets, price
or:
Demand shortfalls
A demand shortfall results from the actual demand for a
given product or service being lower than the projected,
or estimated, demand for that product or service.
Demand shortfalls are caused by demand overestimation
in the planning of new products and services. Demand
overestimation is caused by optimism bias and/or
strategic misrepresentation.
BUSINESS FORCASTING
Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown
situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term.
Both can refer to estimation of time series, cross-
sectional or longitudinal data. Usage can differ between
areas of application: for example in hydrology, the terms
"forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for
estimates of values at certain specific future times, while
the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates,
such as the number of times floods will occur over a long
period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting
and prediction. Forecasting is used in the practice of
Demand Planning in every day business forecasting for
manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand
planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain
forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and a
consensus process.
Forecasting is commonly used in discussion of time-series
data.
Moving average
Exponential smoothing
Extrapolation
Linear prediction
Trend estimation
Growth curve
Judgmental methods
Judgemental forecasting methods incorporate
intuitive judgements, opinions and probability
estimates.
Composite forecasts
Surveys
Delphi method
Scenario building
Technology forecasting
Forecast by analogy
Other methods
Simulation
Prediction market
Probabilistic forecasting and Ensemble forecasting
Reference class forecasting
BUSINEES AND ECONOMIC FORCASTING
Economic forecasting is the process of making
predictions about the economy as a whole or in
part
Input-output model
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This article is about the economic model. For the
computer interface, see Input/output.
The Input-output model of economics uses a matrix
representation of a nation's (or a region's) economy to
predict the effect of changes in one industry on others
and by consumers, government, and foreign suppliers on
the economy. This model, if applied on a region, is also
known as the Regional Impact Multiplier System. Wassily
Leontief (1905-1999) is credited with the development of
this analysis. Francois Quesnay developed a cruder
version of this technique called Tableau économique.
Leontief won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic
Sciences for his development of this model.
Input-output analysis considers inter-industry relations in
an economy, depicting how the output of one industry
goes to another industry where it serves as an input, and
thereby makes one industry dependent on another both
as customer of output and as supplier of inputs. An input-
output model is a specific formulation of input-output
analysis.
Each column of the input-output matrix reports the
monetary value of an industry's inputs and each row
represents the value of an industry's outputs. Suppose
there are three industries. Column 1 reports the value of
inputs to Industry 1 from Industries 1, 2, and 3. Columns
2 and 3 do the same for those industries. Row 1 reports
the value of outputs from Industry 1 to Industries 1, 2,
and 3. Rows 2 and 3 do the same for the other industries.
While the input-output matrix reports only the
intermediate goods and services that are exchanged
among industries, row vectors on the bottom record the
disposition of finished goods and services to consumers,
government, and foreign buyers. Similarly, column
vectors on the right record non-industrial inputs like labor
and purchases from foreign suppliers.
In addition to studying the structure of national
economies, input-output economics has been used to
study regional economies within a nation, and as a tool
for national economic planning.
The mathematics of input-output economics is
straightforward, but the data requirements are enormous
because the expenditures and revenues of each branch
of economic activity has to be represented. The tool has
languished because not all countries collect the required
data, data quality varies, and the data collection and
preparation process has lags that make timely analysis
difficult. Typically input-out tables are compiled
retrospectively as a "snapshot" cross-section of the
economy, once every few years.
Usefulness
An input-output model is widely used in economic
forecasting to predict flows between sectors. They are
also used in local urban economics.
Irving Hock at the Chicago Area Transportation Study did
detailed forecasting by industry sectors using input-
output techniques. At the time, Hock’s work was quite an
undertaking, the only other work that has been done at
the urban level was for Stockholm and it was not widely
known. Input-output was one of the few techniques
developed at the CATS not adopted in later studies. Later
studies used economic base analysis techniques.
Input-output models at ZIP code level compilations (eg, a
city) are also available through the IMPLAN system.
Key Ideas
The inimitable book by Leontief himself remains the best
exposition of input-output analysis. See bibliography.
Input-output concepts are simple. Consider the
production of the ith sector. We may isolate (1) the
quantity of that production that goes to final demand,ci,
(2) to total output, xi, and (3) flows xij from that industry
to other industries. We may write a transactions tableau
Table: Transactions in a Three Sector Economy
Inputs
Inputs to Inputs to Final Total
Economic to
Agricultu Manufacturi Deman Outpu
Activities Transpor
re ng d t
t
Agriculture 5 15 2 68 90
Manufacturi
10 20 10 40 80
ng
Transportati
10 15 5 0 30
on
Labor 25 30 5 0 60
BASIC CONCEPT OF
PRODUCTION THEORY
In microeconomics, Production is simply the conversion
of inputs into outputs. It is an economic process that uses
resources to create a commodity that is suitable for
exchange. This can include manufacturing, storing,
shipping, and packaging. Some economists define
production broadly as all economic activity other than
consumption. They see every commercial activity other
than the final purchase as some form of production.
Production is a process, and as such it occurs through
time and space. Because it is a flow concept, production
is measured as a “rate of output per period of time”.
There are three aspects to production processes:
Factors of production
The inputs or resources used in the production process
are called factors by economists. The myriad of possible
inputs are usually grouped into four or five categories.
These factors are:
Raw materials
Machinery
Labour services
Capital goods
Land
Enterpreneur
Isoquants
There are many ways of producing a given level of
output. You can use a lot of labour with a minimal amount
of capital, or you could invest heavily in capital
equipment that requires a minimal amount of labour to
operate, or any combination in between. For most goods,
there are more than just two inputs. For example in
agriculture, the amount of land, water, and fertilizer can
all be varied to produce different amounts of a crop. An
isoquant, in the two input case, is a curve that shows all
the ways of combining two inputs so as to produce a
given level of output.
The marginal rate of technical
substitution
Isoquants are typically convex to the origin reflecting the
fact that the two factors are substitutable for each other
at varying rates. This rate of substitutability is called the
“marginal rate of technical substitution” (MRTS) or
occasionally the “marginal rate of substitution in
production”. It measures the reduction in one input per
unit increase in the other input that is just sufficient to
maintain a constant level of production. For example, the
marginal rate of substitution of labour for capital gives
the amount of capital that can be replaced by one unit of
labour while keeping output unchanged.
Isoquant
Monopolistic competition
Monopolistic competition is a common market form.
Many markets can be considered monopolistically
competitive, often including the markets for restaurants,
cereal, clothing, shoes and service industries in large
cities.
Monopolistically competitive markets have the following
characteristics:
Problems
While monopolistically competitive firms are inefficient, it
is usually the case that the costs of regulating prices for
every product that is sold in monopolistic competition by
far exceed the benefits; the government would have to
regulate all firms that sold heterogeneous products—an
impossible proposition in a market economy. A
monopolistically competitive firm might be said to be
marginally inefficient because the firm produces at an
output where average total cost is not a minimum. A
monopolistically competitive market might be said to be
a marginally inefficient market structure because
marginal cost is less than price in the long run.
Another concern of critics of monopolistic competition is
that it fosters advertising and the creation of brand
names. Critics argue that advertising induces customers
into spending more on products because of the name
associated with them rather than because of rational
factors. This is disputed by defenders of advertising who
argue that (1) brand names can represent a guarantee of
quality, and (2) advertising helps reduce the cost to
consumers of weighing the tradeoffs of numerous
competing brands. There are unique information and
information processing costs associated with selecting a
brand in a monopolistically competitive environment. In a
monopoly industry, the consumer is faced with a single
brand and so information gathering is relatively
inexpensive. In a perfectly competitive industry, the
consumer is faced with many brands. However, because
the brands are virtually identical, again information
gathering is relatively inexpensive. Faced with a
monopolistically competitive industry, to select the best
out of many brands the consumer must collect and
process information on a large number of different
brands. In many cases, the cost of gathering information
necessary to selecting the best brand can exceed the
benefit of consuming the best brand (versus a randomly
selected brand).
Evidence suggests that consumers use information
obtained from advertising not only to assess the single
brand advertised, but also to infer the possible existence
of brands that the consumer has, heretofore, not
observed, as well as to infer consumer satisfaction with
brands similar to the advertised brand.[2]
Examples
In many U.S. markets, producers practice product
differentiation by altering the physical composition, using
special packaging, or simply claiming to have superior
products based on brand images and/or advertising.
Toothpastes and toilet papers are examples of
differentiated products.
OLIGOPOLY
Description
Oligopoly is a common market form. As a quantitative
description of oligopoly, the four-firm concentration ratio
is often utilized. This measure expresses the market
share of the four largest firms in an industry as a
percentage. Using this measure, an oligopoly is defined
as a market in which the four-firm concentration ratio is
above 40%.[citation needed]
Oligopolistic competition can give rise to a wide range of
different outcomes. In some situations, the firms may
collude to raise prices and restrict production in the same
way as a monopoly. Where there is a formal agreement
for such collusion, this is known as a cartel.
Firms often collude in an attempt to stabilise unstable
markets, so as to reduce the risks inherent in these
markets for investment and product development. There
are legal restrictions on such collusion in most countries.
There does not have to be a formal agreement for
collusion to take place (although for the act to be illegal
there must be a real communication between companies)
- for example, in some industries, there may be an
acknowledged market leader which informally sets prices
to which other producers respond, known as price
leadership.
In other situations, competition between sellers in an
oligopoly can be fierce, with relatively low prices and
high production. This could lead to an efficient outcome
approaching perfect competition. The competition in an
oligopoly can be greater than when there are more firms
in an industry if, for example, the firms were only
regionally based and didn't compete directly with each
other.
The welfare analysis of oligopolies suffers, thus, from a
sensitivity to the exact specifications used to define the
market's structure. In particular, the level of deadweight
loss is hard to measure. The study of product
differentiation indicates oligopolies might also create
excessive levels of differentiation in order to stifle
competition.
Oligopoly theory makes heavy use of game theory to
model the behaviour of oligopolies:
Stackelberg's duopoly. In this model the firms move
sequentially (see Stackelberg competition).
Cournot's duopoly. In this model the firms simultaneously
choose quantities (see Cournot competition).
Bertrand's oligopoly. In this model the firms
simultaneously choose prices (see Bertrand competition).
Demand curve
[edit] Oligopsonies
Oligopsony is a market form in which the number of
buyers is small while the number of sellers in theory
could be large. This typically happens in markets for
inputs where a small number of firms are competing to
obtain factors of production. This also involves strategic
interactions but of a different nature than when
competing in the output market to sell a final output.
Oligopoly refers to the market for output while oligopsony
refers to the market where these firms are the buyers
and not sellers (eg. a factor market). A market with a few
sellers (oligopoly) and a few buyers (oligopsony) is
referred to as a bilateral oligopoly.
Examples
In the United Kingdom, the four-firm concentration ratio
of the supermarket industry is 74.4% (2006)[1]; the
British brewing industry has a staggering 85% ratio. In
the U.S.A, oligopolistic industries include the beer,
tobacco, accounting and audit services, aircraft, military
equipment, and motor vehicle industries.
Many media industries today are essentially oligopolies.
Six movie studios receive 90 percent of American film
revenues, and four major music companies receive 80
percent of recording revenues. There are just six major
book publishers, and the television industry was an
oligopoly of three networks- ABC, CBS, and NBC-from the
1950s through the 1970s. Television has diversified since
then, especially because of cable, but today it is still
mostly an oligopoly (due to concentration of media
ownership) of five companies: Disney/ABC, Viacom/CBS,
NBC Universal, Time Warner, and News Corporation.[2]
In industrialized countries oligopolies are found in many
sectors of the economy, such as cars, auditing, consumer
goods, and steel production. Unprecedented levels of
competition, fueled by increasing globalisation, have
resulted in the emergence of oligopoly in many market
sectors, such as the aerospace industry. Market shares in
oligopoly are typically determined on the basis of product
development and advertising. There are now only a small
number of manufacturers of civil passenger aircraft,
though Brazil (Embraer) and Canada (Bombardier) have
fielded entries into the smaller-market passenger aircraft
market sector. A further instance arises in a heavily
regulated market such as wireless communications. In
some cases states have licensed only two or three
providers of cellular phone services.
OPEC is another example of an oligopoly, although on the
level of national bodies instead of corporate bodies.
There are a few countries that try to control the
production of oil.
Isocost
In economics an isocost line represents a combination of
inputs which all cost the same amount. Although similar
to the budget constraint in consumer theory, the use of
the isocost pertains to cost-minimization in production,
as opposed to utility-maximization. The typical isocost
line represents the ratio of costs of labour and capital, so
the formula is often written as: