Q. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the
population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of
accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should
limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50
per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the
town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was
achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council
enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in
order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be
sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the
recommendation.

1. At first glance, it might appear rational to concur with the conclusion that limiting the number
of the mopeds rented from 50 to 25 will reduce the accidents involving mopeds and
pedestrians since the Seaville Island has already achieved last year. However, the author's
argument does not make a cogent case for the reduction of the accidents. There are several
assumptions that are not strong enough to lead to the conclusion that cut down the numbers
of the mopeds used can also lower the accidents rate.

The first issue to be addressed is whether the Balmer Island has the same situation with the
Seaville Island. Clearly, the letter didn't involved any specific numbers that we need to know,
such as the population of the two islands, the percentage of the people who use mopeds, and
even the geography of this two islands are the same kind or totally different. Remarkably little
is known about the situation of these two islands. Unless the survey is valid and reliable, it
cannot be used to effectively back to the author's arguments while the connection between
the Balmer and the Seaville is not match.

This argument also relies on the idea that limiting the numbers of the rental mopeds in Balmer
can have the same result with Seaville Island. However, the reduction of moped's rental from
50 to 25 equals to cut down 50 percentages of the mopeds in use. It will be a huge change
in the way how people commute. For example, those people who change their commute way
from riding a moped to walking has a highly chance to walk faster or even cross the red light
to meet the time, which obviously will increase the chance of having accidents between the
pedestrians and cars. Accordingly, a warning sign or an instruction light on the road may be
a good idea to change the situation, instead of cut the number of the mopeds.

Thirdly, the argument is weakened by the fact that it does not take the geography and
population into account. Clearly, the population of these two islands is of importance to
discuss with. For example, if the people who live on the Seaville Island are only a thousand,
reducing half of the moped's use will obviously lower the accident rate. However, as the letter
mentioned that there are about 100,000 people during the summer months, there are much
more people on Balmer Island. Not to mention the fact that a place where the more people
live, the more accidents will happened. In addition, the geography also plays a great role in
the situation of whether the accidents happened. If the Balmer's topography is not that good,
such as the road is covered with potholes and pebbles, more slope, or even the road signs
are ambiguous while the Seaville is in a good condition, which could be a tremendous
difference between the numbers of the accidents.

Finally, even if the author can substantiate the assumptions him/her made, I remain
unconvinced that reduce the number of the moped's use can lower the number of the
accidents. Besides the reduction of the mopeds may not only let the moped shopkeeper's
revenue decline, but break the income of the tourism industry in the Balmer Island. In order
to prevent this kind of things happened, I suggest that the moped's owner should add some
reflection things on the mopeds to improve the safety of the renters, which will lower the
accident rate and also reduce the chance that the owner needs to fix the mopeds. And the
government can set the signs and instructions to remind the pedestrians and the drivers to
be aware when they are on the road. Additionally, the government could also set a regulation
of the speed limit to punish the one who drive the moped. With the punishment of the money,
people may be more careful when they are driving.

To conclude, while at first it may seem somewhat make sense for council to limit the rental of
the mopeds. However, the letter may not be the only view of this issue. A more complete
understanding of the situations between Balmer's and Seaville's is needed. To strengthen it
the author must provide the evidences such as the population and the geography and so on.
All this things must be considered before any assumption is made.

2. In the letter, the author claims that in order to reduce the number of
accidents involved in mopeds and pedestrians, B island should limit
amount of moped rented from its moped rental companies during summer
months. He cites various evidences to support the claim. However, a
meticulous analysis will show otherwise. For the reason, the author should
answer some specific questions to make the argument more sound:1)Are
there a great amount of rental companies in B island?2) Would all that kind
of accidents happened in summer?3)Whether B island and S island under
the same the same transportation conditions?

First, if there are a great number of moped rental companies and nearly all
moped in B island are from these companies, it may has impact on
decreasing the incidence by limiting the rental number of mopeds.
However, if there are only a few rental companies in B island, it will weaken
the argument. Because, in the case,the rental mopeds only constitutes a
fraction of all moped in B island while nearly all the mopeds are owned to
the individuals. For the reason, it's nearly no use to limit the number of
rental mopeds.

Secondly, it's very crucial for the author to answer the question:Would all
moped accidents happened in summer? If nearly all these accidents occur
during summer, it will support the argument. In contrast,if actually in
winter, these accidents happen frequently due to the frozen and smooth
roads. Thus, it will be nearly no effect to limit the number of the rental
mopeds in summer. Therefore, without ruling out other possible reasons,
the author's claim cannot convince me on the basis of the cause of
accidents, let alone the argument that to limit the the number of rentals of
mopeds in order to reduce the incidence.

Thirdly, it's also necessary for the author to answer Whether B island and S
island under the same the same transportation conditions? If the answer is
yes, the argument is more convincing. However, if each of these two
islanda has own particular transportation situations, it will weaken the
argument.Because it's entirely possible that in addition to the policy that
limit the number of rental moped, S island also conducted other ideas in
practice to reduce the accidents last year which actually play roles
primarily, such as improving the quality of the roads and the public
awareness of safety driving. In the letter, the author may not consider the
whole strategys adopted by S island,so it's not wise to deduce the policy's
effect in B island from S island's rashly.

In sum, the author's claim is not persuasive. To bolster it he must answer

the following questions that 1)there are a great amount of rental
companies in B island indeed.2) Nearly all the kind o f accidents happened
in summer 3) B island and S island under the same the same transportation
conditions.
Q. The following is a recommendation from the Board of Directors of Monarch Books.

"We recommend that Monarch Books open a café in its store. Monarch, having been in
business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer base because
it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Clearly, opening the café would
attract more customers. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book
section, which will probably become less popular given that the most recent national census
indicated a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten. Opening a
café will allow Monarch to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which
recently opened its own café."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to
decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain
how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

1. Monarch Books, having enjoyed a prosperous business and large customer base for the last twenty
years, is looking for the possibilities of expanding itself. A recommendation from the Board of Directors
of Monarch Books suggested that a café be open inside the store to draw more customers, which
however, may not be the wisest option to be relied upon, as the argument assumes a direct increase
in book sales with inclusion of coffee shop. What Monarch Books should look for, in an attempt to
increase in customer footfall and topple its rival Regal Books, is a multi-faceted solution, well
researched and a dynamic approach, which not only will make it even more popular but also single it
out from all other book stores.

A business becomes stagnant without growth and expansion, and continuing it maximizes the chances
of failure. Monarch Books, having been successful for the last two decades, undoubtedly enjoys a
feather in its cap. Spreading itself and opening newer branches at significant places, such as newer
shopping malls, instead of staying at the same location, will boost its popularity among people. In order
to draw the more attention, it can resort to advertise itself across the city or on popular websites.
Setting up events like new book launches by authors, and asking people to participate in it, luring them
with a chance to meet their favourite writers and giving away goodies, can leave an impression, solidly
engraved in their minds. Monarch may take a step ahead by exploiting the digital technology, opening
its own personal website or mobile application, to which users have an easier access to, and shift its
store online. This will not only make browsing easier for people, but also give them insights into writers
and their lives, newer book launches, popular events on the calendar and pre- order latest best-sellers.
A café in the bookstore, in addition to all the above changes, will prove to be the just perfect tonic for
its success.

However, suggestions for discontinuing the children’s book section to make way for the café, may well
not go down with the success of the store. Although the national census indicated a decrease in
population under age ten, the argument is no way a prediction that the statistics won’t increase in
forthcoming years. Children have always formed a greater part of the customers eyeing for new books,
and perhaps a children bestseller may boom the sales. Inclusion of recent comics and setting up
periodic scholastic book fairs in schools will eventually draw more kids to Monarch. It can reshuffle
children book section, and utilize intelligent design to incorporate both café and the kid’s corner
together. An overall transformation to how the store looks might appeal to people, especially children,
in an unpredicted manner. Opening of other branches elsewhere in the city or across states will
facilitate more publicity and give Monarch enough space to include coffee shops too. Thus, instead of
discontinuing children’s section, it can focus on such a lively and vigorous approach, that will help
Monarch to outdo its rival.
All the above suggestions, if incorporated precisely, will multiply Monarch’s popularity exponentially
over a period of time. After all, success is sublime. And to achieve it takes a tedious process of long
term and smart investment. Merging recent trends and technology together, Monarch might as well
achieve a head start, and ultimately a significant increase in popularity for years to come.

2. The argument made by the Board of Directors of Monarch Books, that

by opening a cafe within bookstore, more customers will be attracted and
Monarch Books can better compete with Regal Books who have opened a
cafe recently, may seem to be logical at the first glance.The argument
may be correct if the premises on which it is based were to be true.
However, in presenting the recommendation, the author has made some
assumptions for which he has not provided any supporting evidence.

The author representing the opinion of the Board of Director of Monarch

books,states that Monarch books having been at the same location for 20
years has a large customer base.If they open a cafe in the bookstore,
more customers will be attracted. He suggests that children's section
should be discontinued to make space for the cafe. According to the
author, such a move will help them compete better with their rival Regal
books who have also opened a cafe recently. The author's suggestion that
the section for the children's books should be discontinued, is based on
the latest national census whch apparently indicates a significant decline
in the percentage of the population under age ten. The author has
assumed that due to a significance decrease in the children under age 10,
the closing of kids section will not result in significant loses. However the
author has not quoted any figures so as to indicate what is the actual
percentage decrease in number of children under age ten. The national
census considers the nation as a whole. The figures averaged over the
national scale may not reflect the actual trend in the city where the
Monarch Book Store is located. The author has not stated the share of
chidren book sales in the total yearly sales. The sales of children's books
may be responsible for a large percentrage of profit. So even with a
significant decrease in number of children under ten, the move of closing
the children's section may bring down sales profit. There may be an
indirect effect as well. The children bring along their parents who also
tend to buy books for themselves. Closing the children's section will also
repel such potential customers. If the author were to present exact
figures regarding the decrease in percentage of the population under age
ten at the local level and show that the sales of children's books does not
constitute a large percentage of total profits, it would lend a lot of
strength to his argument.

The author has stated that opening a café will allow Monarch to attract
more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently
opened its own café. Here the author has assumed that their has been an
increase in the number of customers in the Regal Books after opening of
cafe. The author has not provided any evidence to explicitly suggest that
more customers have been attracted to the Regal Books since the
opening of the cafe or the existing customers of the Regal Books are
sigficantly pleased with the opening of the cafe. If he were to conduct or
quote some already conducted survey which showed the clients' positive
opinion on the opening of a cafe, this would have strengthened his point
significantly. However the author has not linked the opening of cafe with
the positive opinion of any client that a cafe should be opened in the
book store.

Summing up,the author's argument that by opening a cafe within

bookstore, more customers will be attracted and Monarch Books can
better compete with Regal Books who have opened a cafe recently, may
be correct. However, in making his recommendation the author has made
many assumptions. In the absence of any supporting evidences to the
assumptions pointed out, the recomendation is not likely to have the
predicted results.