Performance‐based 

Decision‐making Method

Olga De Frutos

Mexico/22 August 2016
 COMPONENTS

GANP 2019 Vision
Conceptual 
Roadmap
Performance 
Objectives
LAYERS

NATIONAL REGIONAL PLANNING

FRAMEWORK
BBBs ASBUs PBA ARCH.

ANP
R&D 
Vol I Vol II Vol III Programmes

National Responsibility National Plans
Proposed Template?
Deployment
“Fall in love with the problem, not with the
solution”
 What this method entails?
“Several procedures for meeting the
expectations of the aviation community
by enhancing the performance of the Air
Navigation System and optimizing
allocation and use of the available
resources”
 Principles
• Strong focus on desired/required results
• Reliance on facts and data for decision
making
• Collaborative justified decision-making
 The way to success
• Commitment
• Agreement on goals
• Organization
• Human resources and knowledge/expertise
• Data collection, processing, storage and reporting;
• Collaboration and coordination; and
• Cost implications
 The Method
• STEP 1: Know your system
• STEP 2: Set of targets/ Calculation of needs
• STEP 3: Optimum solution identification
• STEP 4: Optimum solution deployment
• STEP 5: Results assessment
 STEP 1:
KNOW YOUR
SYSTEM

STEP 2: TARGETS
STEP 5: RESULTS SET/ NEEDS
ASSESSMENT CALCULATION

STEP 4: OPTIMUM STEP 3: OPTIMUM

SOLUTION SOLUTION
DEPLOYMENT IDENTIFICATION
 STEP 1:KNOW YOUR SYSTEM (KYS)
• Scope
– Avoid misunderstandings
 Limits of responsibility and accountability
• Context
– Global, Regional, Local
– Make clear assumptions on what is “surrounding”
it
 STEP 1:KNOW YOUR SYSTEM (KYS)
• Identify ambitions and expectations
– Expectation vs. ambition
– ICAO KPAs
– Global performance ambitions
• Environment, Safety
• Capacity, Efficiency, Predictability (GANP 2019)
– Regional performance ambitions
• ANP Vol III
– National performance ambitions
• Implementation
• National Air Navigation Plans
 STEP 1:KNOW YOUR SYSTEM (KYS)
• Operational analysis (baseline
performance)
– Data collection, process and analyse
– Monitor current operations
• KPIs (GANP 2016)
– Traffic forecast
 STEP 1:KNOW YOUR SYSTEM (KYS)
• SWOT Analysis
– Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and
Threats
Performance objectives
 Example
O Performance management process.
O Scope:
O FIR, TMAs and airports in AIP.
O 25 years (5-year cycle).
O Safety, capacity, efficiency, predictability and
environment.
 Example
O Context:
O Traffic growth, RPAs, airports embed in cities,
military activity, weather,…
O Multiple neighbors
O NACC
 Example
O General ambition/expectation:
“To increase capacity along with efficiency and
predictability in order to respond to future
traffic growth, while ensuring that there are no
adverse impacts on safety nor environment.”
 Example
O Operational analysis in FIRs, TMAs and airports
within AIP:
O Performance baseline
O KPI02, KPI13, KPI04, KPI05, KPI08, KPI16,
KPI09, KPI10,KPI06, KPI11, KPI01, KPI14, KPI15
O SWOT analysis
 Example
O Airport Y:
O Scope limited to airside of the airport, including
TMA. Airport terminal is out of scope.
O Performance baseline
O KPI02, KPI13, KPI16, KPI09, KPI10, KPI11,
KPI01, KPI14, KPI15
O Forecast
O SWOT analysis
 Example
O SWOT analysis:
O Strengths:
O manpower
O Weaknesses:
O 2 runways separate 300 m  dependent operations
O HUB operations
O Separation on final (absolute values and application)
O Opportunities:
O New technology and procedures
O Threads:
O Weather
O Topography surrounding airport Y
O Airport Y physical capacity restriction
 STEP 2: TARGETS & NEEDS
• Agree & Prioritize performance objectives
– Focus area within KPAs
Performance objectives
– Prioritization
 STEP 2: TARGETS & NEEDS
• SMART Objectives
– Specific
– Measurable
– Achievable
– Relevant
– Time-bounded
 STEP 2: TARGETS & NEEDS
• SMART Objectives
– Specific PERFORMANCE 
– Measurable INDICATORS  ICAO KPIs Catalogue
– Achievable
– Relevant
– Time-bounded
 STEP 2: TARGETS & NEEDS
• SMART Objectives
– Specific PERFORMANCE
– Measurable INDICATORS PERFORMANCE 
PERFORMANCE 
– Achievable BASELINE
VALUE= f(baseline) TARGETS
– Relevant
SPEED PROGRESS  PERFORMANCE 
– Time-bounded NEEDS
 Example
O Airport Y
O Focus area:
O Capacity
O Airport capacity
O Runway capacity
O Efficiency
O Airport efficiency
O Taxi in and out efficiency
O WHAT?
 Example
O Airport Y
O WHAT?
O Objective 1: to increase the airport acceptance
rate while maintaining safety
O Objective 2: to improve the efficiency of ground
operations during heavy traffic time-periods, while
maintaining safety and minimizing environmental
impact.
 Example
O Airport Y
O Performance targets
O Specific and measurable:
O Objective 1: KPI09, KPI11
O Objective 2: KPI02, KPI13, KPI16
 Example
O Airport Y
O KPI09: Airport peak arrival capacity
O For each arriving flight:
O Actual landing time (ALDT)
O Estimated landing time (ELDT) (from flight plan)
O For each time interval:
O Declared landing capacity of the airport
Example
 Example
O Airport Y
O Performance targets
O Achievable, relevant and time bound
O KPI09: airport peak arrival capacity
O Baseline
O Runway system:
O Declare capacity of the system runway 40 operations  Airport peak arrival
capacity of the system runway: 20 arrivals/hour
O Actual throughput: 35 operations
O Typical busy hour demand of 50 operations
O Two non independent runways separated by 305 m
O Operated as a single runway (one runway for departures and one for arrivals)
O Traffic growth forecast for the next 25 years: 8%
 Example
O Airport Y
O KPI09: airport peak arrival capacity
O Performance target:
O It is decided to adopt the future typical busy hour demand as the capacity target. This
results in:
50x1.08^25=340 operations  170 arrivals per hour
O The best in class airport peak arrival capacity for two dependent runways is 60
operations, thus the limit of the infrastructure capacity of the airport to accommodate
the forecast demand will be reached in 3 years
O So the performance target for a short term will be limited by the infrastructure of the
runways to 60 operations. A longer term solution, such as the construction of a new
airport should be considered.
O Airport peak arrival capacity of the system runway: 60 arrivals/hour
O Performance needs:
O Airport peak arrival capacity of the runway system: 60-40=20 arrivals/hour
 Example
O Airport Y
O KPI11: AIRPORT PEAK CAPACITY UTILIZATION
O For each arriving flight:
O Actual landing time (ALDT)
O Estimated landing time (ELDT) (from flight plan)
O For each time interval:
O Declared landing capacity of the airport
Example
 Example
O Airport Y
O KPI11: airport arrival capacity utilization
O Baseline
O Runway system:
O Declare capacity of the system runway 40 operations  Airport
peak arrival capacity of the system runway: 20 arrivals/hour
O Actual throughput: 25 operations
O Typical busy hour demand of 50 operations
O Two non independent runways separated by 305 m
O Operated as a single runway (one runway for departures and one for
arrivals)
O Traffic growth forecast for the next 25 years: 8%
 Example
O Airport Y
O KPI11: airport arrival capacity utilization
O Performance target:
O It is decided to adopt the future typical busy hour demand as the capacity target. This
results in:
50x1.08^25=340 operations  170 arrivals per hour
O The best in class airport peak arrival capacity for two dependent runways is 60
operations, thus the limit of the infrastructure capacity of the airport to accommodate
the forecast demand will be reached in 3 years
O In this case, within in 3 years the capacity is expected to reach the demand and the
target in this case will be set in 1, so the throughput to be equal to the demand and
the capacity.
O Airport arrival capacity utilization of the system runway: 100%
O Performance needs:
O Airport arrival capacity utilization of the runway system: 1-25/40=0.375= 37.5%
STEP 3: IDENTIFICATION OPT. SOLUTION
• Assessment of the SWOT analysis
– Dominant factors:
main constraints/opportunities
 selection and prioritization of opportunities and
issues
STEP 3: IDENTIFICATION OPT. SOLUTION
• List of options
– High-level strategy
– Operational concept
– Technical enablers
– Baseline
– Availability
– Safety Assessment
– Human Factors Assessment
– Assessment of expected performance
STEP 3: IDENTIFICATION OPT. SOLUTION
STEP 3: IDENTIFICATION OPT. SOLUTION
• Make decisions
– Information available
• Scope
• Performance objectives and targets
• Assessment of SWOT analysis
• List of solutions (ASBUs)
• Safety Assessment, HP Assessment, CBA and Environment
Impact Assessment
– Single optimum solution or a roadmap of optimum solutions
 Example
O Airport Y
O Airport capacity
O KPI09: Airport Peak Arrival Capacity
O KPI11: Airport Arrival Capacity Utilization
 Example
O SWOT analysis:
O Strengths:
O manpower
O Weaknesses:
O 2 runways separate 300 m  dependent operations
O HUB operations
O Separation on final (absolute values and application)
O Opportunities:
O New technology and procedures
O Threads:
O Weather
O Topography surrounding airport Y
O Airport Y physical capacity restriction
STEP 3: IDENTIFICATION OPT. 
SOLUTION
Example
 Example
O Separation on final:
O B0 WAKE:
O RECAT
O B0 ASEP
O VSA
O Number of runways used simultaneously
O B0 WAKE
O WIDAO
O Aircraft sequencing
O B0 RSEQ
O AMAN
 Example
COST
VSA

AMAN

WIDAO

RECAT

PERFORMANCE BENEFIT
 Example 
O Associated Safety Assessment
O Associated Human Factors Assessment
O Associated Environmental Impact
Assessment
STEP 3: IDENTIFICATION OPT. 
SOLUTION
Example
 Example
O Weather
O B0 APTA:
O GNSS+ BaroVNAV
O GNSS+GBAS
O GNSS+SBAS
O Topography
O B0 FRTO
O Airspace design based on PBN
 Example
COST

SBAS

GNSS/BNAV
PBN GBAS

PERFORMANCE BENEFIT
 Example 
O Associated Safety Assessment
O Associated Human Factors Assessment
O Associated Environmental Impact
Assessment
STEP 4: DEPLOYMENT OF THE SOLUTION
• Execution phase
– Planning
– Implementation
• National mechanism
for tracking the implementation
of the elements
– Benefits
 Example 
O Enablers
O Responsible stakeholders for implementation
O Project Management
O Monitor Progress on implementation: Mechanism
for tracking implementation
O Deployment packages
O Per element
O Training, Seminars, WS, TA, SIP,…
 STEP 5: ASSESSMENT OF RESULTS
• Continuously assess performance
• Monitor progress of implementation
• Review actually achieved performance
– Update performance gaps
 +(Step 1&2)=
PERFORMANCE MONITORING AND REVIEW
 STEP 5: ASSESSMENT OF RESULTS
• Tasks in the PMR:
– Data collection
– Data publication
– Data analysis
– Formulation of conclusions; and
– Formulation of recommendations.
 STEP 5: ASSESSMENT OF RESULTS
• Data collection
– Automatic Data Collection
– Manual data reporting (electronic or paper)
• For each KPI:
– information needs;
– suppliers of data;
– information disclosure by data suppliers; and
– manage the data feeds on an ongoing basis.
 STEP 5: ASSESSMENT OF RESULTS
• Data access and publication
– Audience:
• Performance specialists
– Specific data (as much granularity as possible)
• People with a generally high level interest in ATM
performance
– High-level performance indicator
 STEP 5: ASSESSMENT OF RESULTS
• Data Analysis
– Quality of the data
– Data analysis
• Big picture
• Cause-effect analysis for results
New performance objectives, performance
indicators and data needs.
 STEP 5: ASSESSMENT OF RESULTS
• Formulation of conclusions
– Performance objectives
• Formulation of recommendations
– ATM community expectations
 Example 
O Data collection at a national level
O Report annual performance data to the PIRGs Objective:
Monitor improvement performance of the system
O Tool: ANRF/ Dashboards
O ICAO to publish Air Navigation Report based on this data
O ICAO to review global performance objectives base on the
results
O Cycle to start again
 STEP 1:
KNOW YOUR
SYSTEM

STEP 2: TARGETS
STEP 5: RESULTS SET/ NEEDS
ASSESSMENT CALCULATION

STEP 4: OPTIMUM STEP 3: OPTIMUM

SOLUTION SOLUTION
DEPLOYMENT IDENTIFICATION
 GLOBAL LEVEL FALL 2016

REGIONAL LEVEL DEC 2015

STATE LEVEL

Ikits
Training OPTIMUM
CBA
Seminars SOLUTION
Workshops …
PBN iKIT