Chapter 6 - Conclusion and Epilogue
Chapter 6 - Conclusion and Epilogue
Chapter 6 - Conclusion and Epilogue
Before 1989, India and Pakistan fought over Kashmir. Since late
1989, it is Kashmiris who have done the fighting [and, one might
add, the great bulk of the dying].... If the insurgency has taught
anything, it is that Kashmiris are no longer willing to be con-
sidered dependent or unimportant. They have demonstrated that
they mean to be taken seriously ... whatever their problems with
one another ... (Newberg 1995: 74).
Robert Dahl (1991: 493) has remarked that 'in practice, as distinct
from theory, the usual solution [to 'national liberation' wars and
Conclusion and Epilogue (April 1996) 139
insurgencies] has been force plus time'. 'Force plus time' is pre-
cisely the linchpin of the Indian state's strategy of attrition in
Kashmir. Yet the new-found political maturity and determination
of the Kashmiris makes it an open question whether this strategy,
however ruthless its implementation, will be able to lay the
Banquo-like ghost of the Kashmir question to rest in perpetuity.
This baptism by blood and fire since 1989 is also the major
reason why many Kashmiris react with hostility and derision to
the Indian government's plans to revive the Jammu & Kashmir
legislative assembly as a panacea to the Kashmir crisis. This
response, rather than being a manifestation of irrational intransi-
gence or surly rejectionism, is understandable when viewed in the
context of the actual situation on the ground.
Kashmir's social fabric has been terribly scarred in the last seven
years by continuous violence, above all the massive and systematic
violence, directed against the population in general, sponsored by
the state and perpetrated by its agents. And ever more anguish,
suffering and indignity continues to be inflicted daily on the people,
as anyone who has taken the trouble to visit the Valley and other
affected areas in the recent past and interact with the citizenry well
knows. In this context, the imposition of an 'election' to the
assembly at gunpoint would, in popular perception, be tantamount
to rubbing a lot of salt into very raw wounds, the final insult to
compound many injuries:
that the gun alone cannot 'liberate' their people. Indeed, they fully
realise that they themselves, and the political future of their people,
are increasingly being held hostage by the environment of violence
and fear. There are clear indications that some of these important,
popularly-based forces would be willing to participate in a genuine
dialogue without crippling pre-conditions of any kind on any side,
that they recognise the potential efficacy of serious, substantive
talks (not some charade masquerading as dialogue) for their people,
and that they themselves have compelling pragmatic motives to
respond favourably to the initiation of any such process.17
Yet these forces have so far been repressed, rebuffed and denied
recognition as bonafide political actors representing certain deep-
rooted collective aspirations. And so long as large-scale victimisa-
tion of civilians by the security forces in Indian-administered
Kashmir continues, armed resistance is also likely to continue, and
a climate congenial to a cessation of hostilities and commencement
of dialogue, leading eventually to substantive negotiations, cannot
come about.
But in the immediate future, it would be extremely myopic of
the authorities in New Delhi to exploit the military edge over armed
insurgents to trample wantonly on Kashmiri sentiments and aspi-
rations yet again.18 A peace of the graveyard will not only condemn
Jammu & Kashmir to an unpromising, uncertain future, it will also
freeze India-Pakistan relations in their present condition of polar-
ised animosity, to the detriment of prospects of peace, democracy
and development in the entire subcontinent.
Indeed, the international dimension to this conflict is not some-
thing that can simply be wished away. It is less than certain that
any 'solution' (whatever that may be) to the struggle in and over
Kashmir can be stable and final without some level of participation
and acquiescence on the part of the rulers of Pakistan.19 Similarly,
at some future date, some form of international guarantee or
underwriting for a permanent solution may be necessary or advis-
able, given that deceit and bad faith have been the one constant in
the tangled, tortured history of the Kashmir question since 1947.
Perhaps the end of the twentieth century presents an opportune
moment to test Kalhana's words of wisdom, and establish whether
the 'power of spiritual merit', rather than the 'force of soldiers',
remains the best way to conquer the contemporary challenge of
democracy, self-determination and a just peace in Kashmir.
Conclusion and Epilogue (April 1996) 147
Notes
1. Indeed, in the second half of 1995, rumours were already circulating in Srinagar
that the Indian government had finalised its (post-election) list of ministers for
Jammu & Kashmir, and that there were plans to unleash groups of surrendered,
government-sponsored ex-militants (in particular, the armed faction led by
Jamshed Shirazi alias Koka Parray, which goes by the name Ikhwan-ul-
Muslimoon) in the run-up to polls to terrorise the people.
2. The Indian government formally proposed holding assembly elections in
Jammu & Kashmir in December 1995, only to have the suggestion shot down
by the country's assertive Election Commission, which ruled that conditions
were still not sufficiently conducive to ensure a minimally free and fair election.
One apparent reason the government wished to stage an election at the height
of winter in a largely Himalayan region (which would be unprecedented in
Kashmir's political history) was that low rates of participation could then be
partly blamed on the weather. However, even Farooq Abdullah's National
Conference party (which still largely exists only in name in its earlier strong-
holds) has refused to take part in any such election unless New Delhi makes
a binding promise to substantively and comprehensively restore Jammu &
Kashmir pre-1953 autonomous status.
3. The Indian finance minister and architect of the Narasimha Rao government's
liberalisation and deregulation programme, Manmohan Singh, visited Kashmir
a few times in 1995 to enquire into the economic problems of the region.
4. A car-bomb blast that killed some thirteen persons (mostly Indian soldiers) in
the heavily-guarded centre of Srinagar in early September 1995, and for which
HM claimed responsibility, may be an early portent of worse to come.
5. After the destruction of the Charar-e-Sharief shrine in May 1995, Doda, Rajouri,
Poonch and Kargil also joined the Kashmir Valley in observing protest hartals
(general strikes).
6. Even this would partly depend on what strategy the BJP, which has some
influence in the towns of Jammu, chooses to adopt. It currently says that it is
opposed to any elections at this stage, till 'terrorism' is completely crushed.
As this book goes to press, elections are scheduled to be held on 23 and 30
May 1996, as part of India-wide parliamentary elections, for the six seats (three
from Kashmir, two from Jammu and one from Ladakh) that constitute Jammu
& Kashmir's representation in the.elected lower house (Lok Sabha) of Parlia-
ment. Parliamentary elections could not be held in Indian-administered Jammu
& Kashmir during the general elections of 1991 because of the violent atmos-
phere, so this is the first time any kind of electoral process is being attempted
there since 1989. Popular participation (or the lack thereof) in this election is
likely to closely approximate the patterns I have just described. In a repeat of
the 1989 parliamentary poll, there will almost certainly be a major boycott in
the Kashmir Valley (even Farooq's NC has declined to put up candidates), and
a partial but significant boycott in one of the two parliamentary constituencies
in the Jammu region. In a revealing indication of the true nature of this election,
the voting in Indian-administered Jammu & Kashmir has been deliberately
scheduled more than two weeks after polling will have been completed (and
148 The Challenge in Kashmir
results known) for the rest of India, in order to enable 'redeployment' of tens
of thousands of additional security forces from various parts of India to Jammu
& Kashmir.
7. Some vociferous spokespersons for the Pandit community have been demand-
ing that six of the Valley's forty-six assembly seats be 'allotted' to them.
8. Given the near-certainty of a period of instability and flux in India's
national-level politics following the likely outcome of a 'hung parliament'
(i.e., in which no single party or bloc commands a majority) in the elections
of May 1996, there will probably not be another attempt to hold an assembly
election in Jammu & Kashmir before at least autumn 1996.
9. Azam Inquillabi (literally, Azam the Revolutionary) possibly holds the record
for the maximum number of violations of the Line of Control by a single
individual—he has made some thirty clandestine crossings in both directions
between 1969 and 1994.
10. This phenomenon of organised groups of sarkari or government-sponsored
militants emerged during 1995, as morale, cohesion and discipline in many
of the armed groups that had proliferated since 1990 steadily declined, and
drop-out and defection rates rose sharply. Some members of these government-
backed vigilante squads were also motivated by a particular animus towards
the Hizbul Mujahideen, whom they accused of attacking and killing activists
of non-HM guerrilla groups. By 1995-96, several of these 'renegade' or
'contra-guerrilla' outfits had sprouted in the Valley (the largest and most
notorious being the group led by Jamshed Shirazi alias Koka Parray, a
self-styled 'freedom fighter against Pakistan'), and further aggravated the
lawless situation by engaging in acts of murder, rape, kidnapping and extortion
with the active encouragement of the Indian administration and its forces. I
was myself once briefly held up at gunpoint by one of these gangs near Pattan,
a town in Baramulla district not far from Srinagar—the gunmen were operating
virtually under the shadow of a nearby bunker manned by an Indian security
force unit.
11. There is considerable anger and disillusionment among ordinary Kashmiris
especially over charges of rampant corruption and self-enrichment against
several senior Hurriyat leaders—the figures most frequently mentioned in this
connection are Syed Ali Shah Geelani of the Jama'at-i-Islami and Abdul Ghani
Butt of the Muslim Conference, a tiny pro-Pakistan faction. However, what-
ever the Hurriyat's problems may be, the fact remains that the Indian gov-
ernment still does not have a truly credible alternative to project in its place.
12. Indian officials also claimed that the talks had received the approval of Ahsan
Dar, the guerrilla leader who originally founded Hizbul Mujahideen and is
currently still being held in a Jammu prison.
13. The spectacle of former senior leaders of hardline pro-Pakistan groups re-
nouncing and denouncing Pakistan may, among other things, reflect the fact
that the appeal of Pakistan for most Kashmiri Muslims, if it is present at all,
tends to be very superficial and skin-deep. Significantly, no leader of compa-
rable stature of the independentist JKLF has as yet formally renounced the
ideology of independence.
14. See the reports on the meeting in (TS 1996; TT 1996a). The Valley observed
a total strike following the Hurriyat's call to protest these 'talks'. Significantly,
Conclusion and Epilogue (April 1996) 149