Horlicks Buy Provides Upsides: Hindustan Unilever
Horlicks Buy Provides Upsides: Hindustan Unilever
Horlicks Buy Provides Upsides: Hindustan Unilever
Rating Upside
ACCUMULATE (■) 3.5 %
Change in Estimates
Hindustan Unilever’s big bet on health drinks with GSK acquisition appears positive and
EPS Chg FY19E/FY20E (%) -/-
we estimate EPS accretion of ~6% from the deal. Management’s positive commentary on
category growth and synergy benefit targets can drive more upsides we believe. Target Price change (%) 8.6
Target Period (Months) 12
HUL believes category offers strong long term growth given low penetration and huge
Previous Reco ACCUMULATE
opportunity for market development and premiumisation. It believes higher distribution
Emkay vs Consensus
reach and innovation capabilities can help leverage these brands significantly.
EPS Estimates
Managements robust targets from synergy benefits estimated at 800-1000bps makes the FY19E FY20E
deal margin and EPS accretive.
Emkay 28.9 34.3
We are currently factoring only part of the benefits indicated by the management and Consensus 28.6 33.3
believe Improvement in growth from higher distribution and innovation capabilities can Mean Consensus TP (12M) Rs 1,696
drive more upsides. Maintain Accumulate stance with revised target of Rs1900 (from Stock Details
Rs1750), based on 45x Dec-20 earnings.
Bloomberg Code HUVR IN
Face Value (Rs) 1
Management positive on category growth and margin accretion: Despite low growth
Shares outstanding (mn) 2,165
in recent past, HUL believes HFD has huge growth potential and can grow at high-single
52 Week H/L 1,840 / 1,241
digit to double-digits. It believes the category offers substantial scope for market
M Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 3,974 / 56.53
development and premiumiation and will also look at future ready formats.
Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 1,671,941
HUL’s distribution muscle can drive more upsides to category growth: Management Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 38.6
believes its higher distribution reach (4x of GSK) provides opportunity to increase
penetration (currently at 24%) through low unit packs and unlock potential in North and Shareholding Pattern Sep '18
Expect ~6% EPS accretion; maintain Accumulate stance – We expect the deal to be Absolute 12 8 16 47
EPS accretive to HUL by ~6%, factoring only part of the full synergy benefits indicated by Rel. to Nifty 9 15 13 36
the management. We believe HUL has plenty of levers to drive higher growth led by its Relative price chart
Rs %
higher distribution reach and innovation and market development capabilities which we 1850 40
have not priced in yet. Factoring the upsides from the deal and rolling forward to Dec-19 1730 30
earnings, we increase our target price to Rs1900 (from Rs1750) and maintain our 1610 20
1370 0
Financial Snapshot (Standalone)
1250 -10
(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18
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Deal specifics
GSK Consumer will be merged with HUL in an all equity merger. Share swap ration: 4.39
shares of HUL for 1 share each of GSK Consumer (valuing GSK at Rs317bn). Deal is
anticipated to be completed in a year
Brands owned by GSK India (Boost, Viva and Maltova) to be retained by merged entity.
Unilever to acquire Horlicks brand in India and international markets (including group
companies) currently owned by GSK Plc.
HUL will distribute GSK’s OTC and oral health products under a consignment selling
agreements for 5 years.
Unilever paid cash of BDT16.4 billion (£150 million) for GSK’s 82% stake in GSK
Bangladesh Limited; and cash of EUR470 million (£416 million) for the sale of brand rights
and GSK’s consumer healthcare nutrition activities in certain other territories.
Ownership post-merger
GSK Plc (including Group Companies) to own 5.7% of merged entity
Unilever shareholding in merged entity will be 61.9% vs. 67.2% prior to the merger
OTC business
HUL will continue to distribute GSK’s OTC and Oral Health care products for 5 years. There
would be some changes in agreement (vs GSK Consumer), however, net margins will be
similar to GSK Consumer had.
HUL presence in chemist should get a boost which it believes is under leveraged in beauty
and personal care.
Royalty on Horlicks: HUL will have to be pay royalty to Unilever as per SEBI guidelines
(currently GSK pays royalty in range of 1.8% to 4.5% across Horlicks variants).
R&D capabilities of GSK Consumer was largely support from India. HUL will complement its
local and global R&D capabilities in F&R for product development.
As per management, Unilever does not have a call option on GSK stake; GSK can sell the stake
anytime post the transaction is completed.
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Exhibit 2: Category growth is expected to be high single-digit Exhibit 3: HUL distribution reach is 4x of GSK Consumer
9 8.0
Total distribution reach (in mn)
8
7
6
5
4
3
1.8
2
1
0
GSK Consumer HUL
Exhibit 4: Potential synergy benefits from the merger Exhibit 5: Despite GSK Consumer’s higher gross margin, EBITDA
margin is lower due to higher overheads
% of sales GSK Consumer HUL
Gross margin 67% 53%
Employee cost 12% 5%
A&P spends 13% 12%
Freight 5% 4%
Other expenditure 17% 11%
EBITDA margin 20% 21%
Source: Company, Emkay Research
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Balance Sheet
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Equity share capital 2,160 2,160 2,160 2,160 2,160
Reserves & surplus 62,740 68,590 74,991 83,306 92,436
Net worth 64,900 70,750 77,151 85,466 94,596
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0
Loan Funds 0 0 0 0 0
Net deferred tax liability 1,360 (3,100) (3,100) (3,100) (3,100)
Total Liabilities 66,260 67,650 74,051 82,366 91,496
Net block 40,240 41,420 40,829 39,706 38,457
Investment 37,790 31,090 31,090 31,090 31,090
Current Assets 65,850 87,740 101,485 123,578 148,448
Cash & bank balance 16,710 33,730 41,211 54,830 69,913
Other Current Assets 6,220 6,540 7,444 8,482 9,680
Current liabilities & Provision 79,650 96,900 103,853 116,508 130,999
Net current assets (13,800) (9,160) (2,368) 7,070 17,449
Misc. exp 0 0 0 0 0
Total Assets 66,260 67,650 74,051 82,366 91,496
Cash Flow
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
PBT (Ex-Other income) (NI+Dep) 56,290 67,780 82,625 98,545 117,125
Other Non-Cash items 0 0 0 0 0
Chg in working cap 6,270 7,920 689 4,181 4,704
Operating Cashflow 55,350 65,270 68,482 84,207 98,952
Capital expenditure (13,230) (8,230) (4,730) (4,400) (4,700)
Free Cash Flow 42,120 57,040 63,752 79,807 94,252
Investments (9,990) 6,700 0 0 0
Other Investing Cash Flow (5,260) (5,690) (6,549) (7,532) (8,661)
Investing Cashflow (23,220) (1,530) (4,730) (4,400) (4,700)
Equity Capital Raised 0 0 0 0 0
Loans Taken / (Repaid) 0 0 0 0 0
Dividend paid (incl tax) (42,640) (51,770) (56,021) (65,939) (78,920)
Other Financing Cash Flow (150) 5,250 0 0 0
Financing Cashflow (43,010) (46,720) (56,271) (66,189) (79,170)
Net chg in cash (10,880) 17,020 7,481 13,619 15,083
Opening cash position 27,590 16,710 33,730 41,211 54,830
Closing cash position 16,710 33,730 41,211 54,830 69,913
Source: Company, Emkay Research
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Key Ratios
Profitability (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
EBITDA Margin 19.0 21.1 22.0 22.7 23.5
EBIT Margin 17.7 19.7 20.7 21.5 22.3
Effective Tax Rate 30.3 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0
Net Margin 13.5 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.7
ROCE 95.5 110.0 126.2 136.0 145.0
ROE 67.2 75.7 84.4 91.3 97.8
RoIC 835.9 1,646.0 (3,927.4) (1,828.8) (1,064.1)
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05-Dec-15
03-Dec-16
02-Dec-17
01-Dec-18
04-Jun-16
03-Jun-17
02-Jun-18
23-Jan-17 862 950 12m Accumulate Amit Purohit
26-Oct-16 843 1,000 12m Accumulate Amit Purohit
22-Sep-16 910 1,032 12m Accumulate Amit Purohit Source: Bloomberg, Company, Emkay Research
19-Jul-16 895 904 12m Hold Amit Purohit
10-May-16 862 815 12m Hold Prashant Kutty
18-Jan-16 810 805 12m Hold Prashant Kutty
Source: Company, Emkay Research
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