Alberta Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan

BUDGET 2019
Fiscal Plan
A plan for jobs
and the economy
2019 – 23
Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
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BUDGET 2019
GOVERNMENT OF ALBERTA | 2019 –23
2019 –23
Fiscal Plan
PRESENTED BY
TRAVIS TOEWS
PRESIDENT OF TREASURY BOARD
AND MINISTER OF FINANCE
in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta
October 24, 2019
Accountability Statement
The government’s Fiscal Plan for the four years commencing April 1, 2019 was prepared under
my direction in accordance with the Fiscal Planning and Transparency Act and the government’s
accounting policies. All of the government’s policy decisions as of October 16, 2019 with material
economic or fiscal implications have been considered in preparing the four year Fiscal Plan.
Original signed by
Travis Toews
President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance
October 16, 2019
2 Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23
Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Economic Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Expense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Capital Plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Tax Plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Debt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Fiscal Plan Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Response to the Auditor General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
Note: Amounts presented in tables may not add to totals due to rounding.
Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 3

BLANK PAGE
4
BUDGET 2019
Fiscal Plan
Overview
5
Table of Contents
Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
A Plan for Jobs and the Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Getting Alberta Back to Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Making Life Better for Albertans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Standing Up for Alberta. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Investing in Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Keeping Our Commitments to Albertans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Energy and Economic Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Risk Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Deficit and Debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Budget 2019 Fiscal Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
6 Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Overview
A Plan for Jobs and the Economy

Budget 2019 reflects this government’s commitment to responsible fiscal
management. It honours the promise of a credible balanced budget plan over
four years. The fiscal choices are in keeping with government’s mandate: focus
on jobs and deliver public services and infrastructure that support private sector
investment and a vibrant society.
In nine of the past 10 years, provincial governments in Alberta have run deficits.
This includes years when oil prices averaged over US$90 a barrel (bbl) and the
economy expanded by five per cent a year.
Alberta’s escalating deficits created a serious financial situation and a debt burden
that has reached $62.7 billion for taxpayers and future generations of taxpayers1.
Debt servicing costs at the end of last year approached $2 billion. Alberta spent
more on interest than on 17 out of 21 government ministries, including Justice
and Solicitor General, Children’s Services, and Seniors and Housing.
This budget takes a measured approach to address overspending while focussing
on three key priorities:
• Getting Albertans back to work
• Making life better for Albertans
• Standing
pdf named: up for Alberta
B18_FP_OVW_kfm_tb.pdf Budget 2018
Overview Section
1 Total Debt as of March 2019 was $80.8 billion including debt in self-supporting provincial
Budget 2019 - Key Fiscal Metrics
corporations of $18.1 billion.
(billions of dollars)
Budget 2019 – Key Fiscal Metrics
(billions of dollars) 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Actual Estimate Target Target Target
Revenue 49.6 50.0 50.1 53.6 57.5

Expense
Operating expense 48.4 48.2 47.3 47.2 47.1
Other expense 7.9 8.3 7.9 8.3 8.7
Surplus / (Deficit) before provisions and allowances (6.7) (6.5) (5.1) (1.9) 1.8
Crude-by-rail provision - 1.5 - - -
Contingency and unallocated disaster assistance - 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
Revenue forecast allowance - - - - 0.5
Surplus / (Deficit) (6.7) (8.7) (5.9) (2.6) 0.6
Other Key Metrics:

Capital / Other Non-financial assets 53.9 54.6 55.9 56.6 56.7
Heritage Fund Year-end Balances 16.0 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.2
Taxpayer Supported Debt 62.7 71.8 80.9 87.0 93.3
Total Debt1 80.8 90.2 99.9 106.9 114.2
Net Financial Debt 27.5 36.6 43.7 46.9 46.4
Net Financial Debt to Nominal GDP Ratio 7.9% 10.2% 11.8% 12.0% 11.2%
Taxpayer Supported Debt to Nominal GDP Ratio 18.0% 19.9% 21.9% 22.2% 22.5%
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding. See table on page 22 for amounts in millions. See fiscal tables for more detail.
1 Total debt includes debt issued to finance self-supporting provincial corporations.
pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_kfm_tb.pdf
Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 7
Getting Alberta Back to Work
The private sector is the engine of growth and job creation. Government will
move its focus to policies that create the right conditions for sustainable long-
term economic growth.
Supporting Investment in Alberta

Budget 2019 builds on the government’s early achievements to support job
By 2022 Alberta’s corporate tax
rate will be 30 per cent lower than
creation. It continues to lay the foundation for viable and sustainable economic
the next lowest province, and growth. By 2022, Alberta is going to be one of the most tax competitive places
Alberta will have a lower combined in North America for investment.
federal-provincial corporate tax rate
Actions reflected in this fiscal plan include:
than 44 U.S. states.
• Eliminating the carbon tax to give that money back to Albertans.
• Reducing the corporate income tax rate from 12 per cent to eight per cent
over four years so businesses can grow and create more jobs.
• Implementing an enhanced capital cost allowance that provides up to
$900 million in tax deferrals over four years for companies that make new
investments in Alberta, further supporting job creation.
• Returning to a low-rate, broad-based tax approach that supports the whole
economy and encourages economic diversification.
• Removing red tape to streamline government processes that impede
job creation.
Savings for an average Alberta household (family with two children) from
repealing the carbon tax are around $665 per year.1
Corporate tax cuts benefit Albertans and their families. Workers ultimately bear
the cost of high corporate income taxes, with corporate tax increases passed
on through lower wages and higher cost products. Research published by the
University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy has shown that for every $1
increase in corporate income tax revenue due to a rate increase, aggregate wages
in Alberta decline by at least 95 cents. The Job Creation Tax Cut will result in
more jobs and higher wages and salaries for Albertans, allowing them to better
take care of their families.
Investing in Skills and Training

The MacKinnon Panel noted that a highly skilled workforce is critical to
attracting industry and investment. It suggested retooling the province’s
approach to funding institutions that develop Alberta’s skilled workforce. It also
suggests challenging all post-secondary institutions to engage with industry to
graduate the skilled workers industry and business need.
1 This includes direct and indirect savings.

Source: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance calculations using Statistics Canada’s Social Policy
Simulation Database and Model.

To achieve these goals, government actions include:
TELUS signaled their confidence
• Spending $10.7 billion in the post-secondary sector over four years in the Alberta economy with a
through grants, which include reductions to align to the MacKinnon Panel $16 billion investment to expand
recommendations. its broadband infrastructure. This
results in 5,000 jobs for Albertans.
• Reviewing system funding to make it more responsive to skills shortages and
future labour market changes. The focus will be on accountability, service
delivery for students and job creation for graduates.
• Lifting the five year tuition freeze to realign the balance between taxpayers
and students’ own investment in their future.
• Providing additional support to strengthen students’ linkages to
jobs through:
−− Supporting Women Building Futures with $10 million.
−− Expanding apprenticeship training.
−− Increasing support for Skills Canada ($2 million) and CAREERS the
Next Generation ($11.4 million).
Actions to attract and keep skilled workers in the province are also planned in
this budget. They include:
• Developing the Alberta Advantage Immigration Strategy with $2.5 million
to support foreign qualification recognition, getting newcomers into jobs at
their skill level faster.
• Continuing support for the film industry and moving from grant-based
support to a tax credit program. Total support in four years is expected to
be $180 million for commitments under the grant program and the new tax
credit.
• Providing $75 million, starting in 2020-21, to grow and sustain foreign
We will invest $75 million, starting
investment in Alberta.
in 2020-21, to grow and sustain
• Building on our technology, data and telecommunications strength, foreign investment in Alberta.
including our leadership in artificial intelligence. Over the next four years,
Alberta will spend over $34 million to bring Alberta technologies to the
market in areas such as artificial intelligence and autonomous systems.
In addition, Alberta Innovates will spend $6.5 million to help businesses
innovate using data-enabled technologies.
• Implementing an ambitious strategy to grow tourism in Alberta.
Economic Development, Trade and Tourism, through Alberta Innovates, will

restore investor confidence in Alberta with more than $200 million to support
research, innovation and commercialization to develop and advance talent,
grow sectors, leverage funding from partners and the private sector.
Supporting a highly skilled labour force and a competitive business
environment will make lasting contributions to economic growth.

Making Life Better for Albertans
Budget 2019 is a balanced plan for our government to live within its means.
Balancing the budget makes Alberta competitive, allows us to defend Alberta’s
interests, and secures a promising future for this province. This plan protects
the vulnerable by maintaining strong public services, but introduces overdue
reforms and transformation to deliver value for money.
Living Within Our Means

To eliminate the deficit effectively, government must pay attention to the
volatility of Alberta’s revenue streams. Government has to be vigilant and spend
only what it can afford. Otherwise, debt servicing costs (interest on what we
have borrowed) will continue to limit our ability to fund public services like
hospitals, continuing care centres and schools.
Revenue
Over the next four fiscal years, revenues are expected to be lower by
approximately $21.5 billion than in February 2019 at the last provincialBudget 2019 Fiscal Plan Overvie
pdf name: B19_FP_OVW_revenue.pdf
revenue update by the previous government (see the Revenue Section page 64
for details). This reality made spending reductions necessary. Total revenue is,
in fact, forecast to remain relatively flat at $50 billion in 2019-20 and $50.1
billion in 2020-21, before increasing to $57.5 billion by 2022-23.
Revenue
Changes in policies and forecast Revenue Forecasts
assumptions have lowered revenue (billions of dollars)
projections since February 2019.
75 February 2019 Platform Current
(Path to Balance) 1
60
45
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23

Change (1.6) (6.4) (7.5) (6.0)
(February to Current)
30
Source: Treasury Board and Finance

1 2018-19 Third Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement, includes Path to Balance

A modest but realistic oil price outlook along with market access issues
(e.g. pipelines) impede revenue growth over the next two years. Healthy growth
in income tax revenue is expected in 2020-21, but this is more than offset by a
decrease in bitumen royalties as the light-heavy differential widens.
The price of oil is expected to increase modestly over the medium term from
US$57 bbl in 2019-20 to US$63 bbl in 2022-23. Royalties and tax revenue
will also benefit from higher energy prices, rising oil production and improving
economic conditions over the medium term.
Alberta households pay less in taxes than any other province, and benefit from
generous personal tax credits and personal amounts. Alberta will temporarily
pause indexation of non-refundable tax credits and tax bracket thresholds to
the Alberta Consumer Price Index, but resume once the economic and fiscal
situation can support it. Despite this pause, Albertans will continue to pay the
lowest overall taxes in Canada.
Policy changes, including the Job Creation Tax Cut, the carbon tax repeal,
Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER), tuition increases
and modest
pdf named: adjustments to fees are accommodated in the revenue outlook. The
B19_FP_OVW_B19-rev_tb.pdf Budget 2019
Overview Revenue Section
forecast also has more reasonable assumptions regarding investment returns
compared to the Third Quarter Update of 2018-19.
Budget 2019 Revenue
(millions of dollars)
Budget 2019 Revenue
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Income and Other Taxes 23,578 21,933 23,036 24,473 25,930

Resource revenue – Bitumen royalties 3,214 4,682 3,492 4,470 6,131
Resource revenue – Other 2,215 1,845 1,894 2,268 2,460
Transfers from Government of Canada 8,013 9,200 8,883 9,426 9,746
Investment Income 2,349 2,585 2,697 2,893 3,009
Net Income from Government Business Enterprises 2,585 2,417 2,558 2,495 2,580
Premiums, Fees and Licences 3,911 3,872 4,047 4,131 4,241
Other 3,759 3,482 3,472 3,473 3,446
Total Revenue 49,624 50,016 50,079 53,629 57,543
pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_B19-rev_tb.pdf

Expense
As the MacKinnon Panel clearly outlines, Alberta spends much more per
Operating costs will be reduced by
person than other provinces. The panel noted that despite this excessive 2.8 per cent over four years.
spending, outcomes are not better. For example, our health outcomes are no
better and are sometimes worse than in other provinces. Spending on
post-secondary education is not yielding better results.
“Alberta’s spending per capita is the highest in Canada and has consistently
been higher than the average of the 10 provinces over the past 25 years”
(MacKinnon Panel). This is not a problem that started overnight, and it will
take some time to address. The costs of delivering government services can and
will be more in line with those in other provinces, while government delivers
the better outcomes people deserve with better value for taxpayer dollars.

The consolidated operating expenditures of government will be reduced by 2.8
per cent over the next four years. Total expenses, which include capital grants,
debt servicing, inventory consumption as well as a disaster contingency will
remain relatively stable, with an increase of 0.3 per cent over the same period.
The upwards pressure is principally related to growth in debt servicing costs, as
pdf name: B19_FP_OVW_exp.pdf Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Overview
a result of the debt accumulated over previous years.
Expenditures per capita

Alberta spends almost $2,500 more Spending Compared to Others
per person on public services
per capita
than other big provinces (per person)
(B.C. Ontario and Quebec). ON, QB, BC AB
$15,000
If we matched average per capita
spending, we would spend over
$10 billion less each year.
$10,000
$5,000
$0
Sources: Amounts for 2008-09 to 2017-18 are based on Statistics Canada data. Amounts for Alberta from
2018-19 onward are based on the amounts presented in the budget adjusted for Statistics Canada
pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_B19-Exp-tb.pdf methodology. Expenditures for BC, ON, QB from 2018-19 onward were adjusted based Budget
on the2019
pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_exp.pdf
percentage increase provided in each province’s budget. Overview and Expense Section
Budget 2019 Expense

Budget 2019 Expense
(millions of dollars) 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating expense 48,434 48,199 47,335 47,179 47,095
Disaster assistance 507 636 - - -
Capital grants 1,952 2,086 1,957 1,999 2,024
Amortization / disposal loss / inventory consumption 3,651 3,691 3,775 3,848 3,875
Debt servicing costs 1,971 2,265 2,520 2,780 3,013
Pension provisions (190) (337) (375) (324) (248)
Expense before Crude by Rail and Contingency 56,329 56,540 55,212 55,482 55,759
Crude-by-rail provision 6 1,500 - - -
Contingency and disaster and emergency assistance - 680 750 750 750
Total Expense 56,335 58,720 55,962 56,232 56,509
pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_B19-Exp-tb.pdf

To bring the costs of public goods and services closer to national averages over
Since 2015, despite the
the next four years: recession, the size of the overall
• Many programs will be reformed and savings will be found to ensure more Alberta public sector has grown
cost effective means of delivering services. This includes delivery through over five per cent.
public-private partnerships, where the same or better quality of service can
be provided at lower cost.
• Red tape reduction across government, combined with streamlined
processes and consolidating administrative services, are expected to save at
least $140 million.
• The size of Alberta’s public sector will be reduced by about 7.7 per cent
over four years. Targeted reductions, mainly though attrition, coupled with
restraint in the broader public sector, are expected to save an estimated
$552 million in compensation costs by 2022-23. Further savings may be
necessary to accommodate awards through arbitration in 2019-20.
• There will be a reduction of management-to-staff ratios within four years.
• MLAs have led by example by taking a recent five per cent salary reduction
in addition to a five per cent reduction in 2014. The Premier has taken a
recent 10 per cent reduction.
• Government is implementing a program review to drive efficiency and
ensure services are in the public interest and provide value for money.
Taken together, these changes will drive a culture of reform, innovation and
transformation across government.
Better and Smarter Public Services

Funding for Albertans in need
Budget 2019 maintains or increases funding to core social services for the most
is maintained.
vulnerable. This demonstrates the government’s commitment to ensuring
public services are focussed on those with the greatest need. Key funding
includes:
• $20.6 billion per year to provide health services, including increases of
$100 million for a mental health and addiction strategy, $40 million for an
opioid response, and $20 million for palliative care.
• $8.2 billion per year for education maintains current funding levels as
promised, and introduces a new assurance and funding framework that
supports parents’ choice and system demands.
• $3.9 billion per year for community and social services, which represents
a 7.6 per cent increase over 2018-19 to address commitments made
on human trafficking and sexual exploitation, caseload pressure and a
comprehensive review of programming to ensure value for money.
• $1.6 billion per year for children’s services, with spending increasing by
15 per cent by 2022-23, compared to 2018-19. The increase includes the
new Alberta Child and Family Benefit that will provide more money to low
income families, and addresses caseload pressure.
• $638 million for seniors and housing services to maintain overall seniors’
benefits.

The ministries that administer social and health programs account for over
70 per cent of the province’s consolidated operating expense. Government
listened to Albertans about the need to deliver better services at better value.
By keeping funding stable, government intends to reform spending to address
economic, social and fiscal challenges. These reforms will deliver better value for
Albertans while continuing to support the most vulnerable.
Current, generous levels for Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped
AISH recipients currently receive
(AISH), the Alberta Seniors Benefit, Income Support and Special Needs
$1,685 a month in basic benefits
which is $430 per month more than Assistance programs will be maintained. Indexation will be paused but benefits
the next highest province. will not be rolled back or cut.
Standing Up for Alberta
Alberta’s Contribution to Canada

Alberta contributes more, per person, to the national economy than any other
province.
With only 12 per cent of the Canadian population, Alberta attracts a quarter of
all capital investment in Canada and is responsible for more than a fifth of all
Canadian goods exported internationally.
Simply put, the well-being of Alberta’s economy is vital to the Canadian
standard of living.
With higher incomes, Albertans contribute disproportionately to federal
coffers. Alberta’s fiscal contribution to Canada – the difference between federal
taxes raised in Alberta and federal spending in the province – has totalled over
$211 billion over the last decade.
Government will continue to use all levers at its disposal to drive economic
growth in Alberta. These actions, including improving market access for
Canadian energy, will contribute to national prosperity and deserve the support
of Canada’s national and other provincial governments.
Reviving the Energy Sector

The energy sector is a key contributor to the Canadian economy. Canada
sold almost $125 billion worth of energy exports in 2018, far exceeding all
other export categories such as motor vehicles or consumer goods. Canadian
economic growth fluctuates with the energy sector. That means Canada’s
prosperity is closely tied to the strength of the Alberta economy.
Improving market access for oil and for natural gas is a key focus of this
government and is critical to the sustainability of Alberta’s, and Canada’s,
economy. This includes fighting misinformation, through the newly created
Canadian Energy Centre, and supporting leaner and faster regulatory
operations. We will also grow collaborative efforts in key markets.

The Job Creation Tax Cut and the adoption of enhanced Capital Cost
Allowances restores Alberta’s tax competitiveness, making it one of
the most attractive places for energy investment in North America.
Budget 2019 also honours the current agreements under the Petrochemicals
Diversification Program. This program provides royalty credits to companies
in exchange for building facilities that turn propane, ethane and methane into
products such as plastics, fabric and fertilizers or prepare feedstocks for such
products. Government will extend the royalty credit model to incent future
projects.
Alberta is more than a responsible energy producer, we are also an innovation
hub and solution provider. Alberta provided significant support and innovative
technologies to the global energy sector. Continuing this support and
showcasing innovation will promote the growth of Alberta’s knowledge-based
industries. It will generate world-class capabilities, attract long-term investment
and ensure the competitiveness of established sectors such as resource extraction
and processing. And it will demonstrate incontrovertibly that Alberta is a
responsible global citizen in energy production.
Partners in Alberta’s innovation system support the energy sector:
• Alberta Innovates funds and showcases early-stage technology development
and commercialization in partnership with industry.
• Emissions Reduction Alberta supports later stage innovation and
technologies that reduce greenhouse gases, and diversify the economy.
• Economic Development, Trade and Tourism supports technology and
innovation by supporting research and development, demonstration,
business development, commercialization and export, and by attracting
investment.
The government welcomes private sector, market-driven investments in

technologies that add value to the province’s oil and gas resources, and our
government will continue to improve our approach to investment attraction to
ensure we are well-known globally as a safe investment destination.

Crude-by-Rail
We are ending this costly, interventionist and First, it was assumed that the private sector would not
unnecessary approach to market access. have invested in sufficient crude-by-rail capacity in
the absence of government involvement. Yet, without
The fiscal plan reflects a provision of $1.5 billion in the program, private crude-by-rail export volumes in
2019-20 to extricate taxpayers from the crude-by-rail Western Canada soared to 313,000 bpd in July, the
program hastily put in place in the final 30 days of the fourth highest on record. Industry analysts indicate
last government’s mandate. that Western Canada has the ability to transport
The program would have seen taxpayers purchase and 500-600,000 bpd by rail.
ship 120,000 barrels of oil per day out of Alberta, in Second, it was assumed the program would narrow
the hopes of positive returns, low trading risk and the light-heavy differential enough to generate
increased royalties. It was designed to rationalize and additional resource revenues for the province, more-
justify the previous government’s excessive spending than-offsetting any commercial losses. But if the
habits. The program would have cost taxpayers a private sector was investing in rail, the government
minimum of $1.8 billion (commercial revenues of would have received these revenues over time without
$8.8 billion less expenses of $10.6 billion – spending or risking tax dollars.
$3.7 billion in rail contracts and $6.8 billion for the
cost of purchasing the crude). Third, the previous government did not contemplate a
scenario where the differential would remain narrower
The federal government paid nearly the same amount than expected, making the rail contracts highly
($4.5 billion) for the existing Trans Mountain pipeline unprofitable. Between July, the planned start date of
as the previous government planned to commit in the program, and October the differential has averaged
rail contracts. The comparison is striking: the Trans US$12 per bbl, much lower than the committed
Mountain pipeline has the capacity to ship 300,000 cost of US$21 per bbl. The program in the first three
barrels per day (bpd) of crude from Alberta for at least months would have lost an estimated $70 million.
the next 20 years, while the crude-by-rail program
promised to ship only 120,000 bpd over just Finally, the previous government did not disclose the
four years. significant risk of buying and selling crude specifically
for this program, something they had little experience
The business case carried a number of risks and with. This was a very risky insurance policy.
assumptions never adequately disclosed to Albertans.
This government is working with partners on effective
market access without making Albertans shoulder the
significant risks of buying and transporting oil, risks
the previous government did not present transparently.

Investing in Infrastructure
Budget 2019 provides the public infrastructure that families and communities
need. The capital plan makes a commitment of $24.2 billion over four years. It
honours previous public commitments to build and maintain key infrastructure
projects while taking into account observations from the MacKinnon report.
The 2019-2023 plan includes:
• $6.9 billion for direct municipal support with an intent to adjust provincial
spending to recognize the current fiscal environment and allow for some
gainsharing as provincial revenues improve.
• $2.9 billion for roads and bridges.
• $2.9 billion for health facilities.
• $1.8 billion for schools.
• $3.6 billion for capital maintenance and renewal of public infrastructure.
• $476 million for family social supports and housing.
• $463 million for post-secondary infrastructure.
The plan includes federal funding for capital programs. It also includes
$2.5 billion in self-financed capital by Alberta Health Services, school boards
and post-secondary institutions for ancillary and other projects.
Capital spending in Alberta averaged $7 billion per year over the past decade. It
is expected to average over $6 billion in this plan, to recognize two elements in
the MacKinnon report – infrastructure in Alberta is generally newer than other
provinces, and that municipal infrastructure grants are high.
pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_hmgia.pdf Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Overview
Historical Municipal Grants in Alberta

($ millions)
3500
BMTG/Pre-consolidation programs MSI Other Grants
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Note: Basic Municipal Transportation Grant (BMTG), Municipal Sustainability Initiative (MSI)
pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_hmgia.pdf

Government is working to formalize and improve transparency regarding
capital planning and project reporting. This will honour Auditor General
recommendations as well as platform commitments to support stable
infrastructure funding.
Keeping Our Commitments to Albertans

Budget 2019 demonstrates government’s commitment to job creation and
investing in public service delivery and infrastructure in a financially sustainable
way. Many of the government’s platform commitments are also included.
Along with the key commitments already identified, this budget supports:
• Fighting for Alberta by promoting our clean energy, dispelling agriculture
myths and providing litigation support for pro-development Indigenous
communities.
• Implementing the TIER program to support new climate technologies.
• Combatting mountain pine beetle with an additional $20 million over four
years.
• Introducing the Aboriginal Indigenous Opportunities Corporation to help
Indigenous communities become partners in prosperity through resource
development.
• Supporting Alberta’s land trust program with an additional $20 million over
four years.
• Establishing a civil society fund of $20 million to help community groups
expand and thrive.
• Increasing funding for Alberta Law Enforcement Response Teams by up to
$50 million over four years.
• Hiring 50 new prosecutors and supporting programs to reduce rural crime.
• Increasing access to Drug Treatment Courts.
• Creating the Heroes Fund, Veterans Scholarship of Honour and supporting
first responders with $13 million.

Energy and Economic Assumptions
The Budget 2019 outlook is prudent, with forecasts for energy prices, the main
The previous government’s Path
revenue driver, below the average of private sector forecasts. Real GDP growth
to Balance assumed higher oil
is forecast to slow to 0.6 per cent in 2019 reflecting market access challenges. prices resulting in approximately
With business investment and exports picking up and the labour market $800 million in extra royalties
gradually strengthening, real GDP growth is forecast to rebound over the in 2022-23.
medium term, averaging three per cent between 2021 and 2023. Despite the
improvement, the budget forecast is consistent with a prolonged recovery. Real
GDP is not expected to return to 2014 levels until 2020 and the economy is
not assumed to reach full employment until 2023.
Business investment will drive Alberta’s growth. Reductions in the corporate
income tax rate will make Alberta among the most attractive investment
destinations in North America by 2022. This, along with improved market
access, will set the stage for improved investment.
Solid fundamentals, including a relatively young and fast-growing population,
will also support Alberta’s growth.
Although growth prospects are solid, external risks are high for Alberta’s trade-
and energy-driven economy. Geopolitical risks, including increased trade
protectionism and heightened policy uncertainty, affect global trade, investment
and commodity prices.
Government is monitoring these key activities. This budget presents a balanced
approach calibrated to a reasonable revenue forecast but, should the risks noted
materially affect revenues, the fiscal plan will have to be revisited in light of the
commitment to balance the budget by 2022-23.
pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_eaea-tb.pdf Budget 2019
Overview Section

2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Actual Actual Estimate Target Target Target
WTI Oil (US$/bbl) 53.69 62.77 57.00 58.00 62.00 63.00

Light-Heavy Differential (US$/bbl) 14.40 23.31 14.20 18.40 21.00 17.10
WCS@Hardisty (Cdn$/bbl) 50.38 51.65 56.60 52.10 54.00 59.70
Natural Gas (Cdn$/GJ) 1.82 1.34 1.30 1.60 1.90 2.00
Conventional Crude Oil Production (000s barrels/day) 456 489 490 501 509 511
Raw Bitumen Production (000s barrels/day) 2,804 3,008 3,108 3,266 3,424 3,534
Exchange Rate (US¢/Cdn$) 78.0 76.3 75.0 76.0 77.0 78.0
Interest Rate (10-year Canada bonds, %) 1.91 2.19 1.50 1.90 2.10 2.20
2017a 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Real GDP (% change) 4.4 2.2 0.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0
Employment (% change) 1.0 1.9 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.1
Unemployment Rate (%) 7.8 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.2
Primary Household Income (% change) 3.0 4.5 3.2 4.3 5.0 5.3 5.6
Net Corporate Operating Surplus (% change) 247.5 16.4 8.3 (5.1) 17.1 14.0 15.4
Alberta Consumer Price Index (% change) 1.6 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0
Population (% change) 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0
pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_eaea-tb.pdf

Risk Management
The approach to spending takes into account the latest information on the
“Cuts around the edges won’t
economy and fiscal outlook for the forecast period. Alberta’s revenues are
get Alberta back to a sustainable
balanced budget. The government volatile, so prudence is important to support the plan to return to balanced
needs to make a difficult but budgets.
necessary fiscal course correction
Risks will be monitored and mitigated where possible and the government
immediately to return the
province to fiscal health over
is committed to transparency. Risks include delays to market access, trade
the medium to long term.” pressures, service demands due to population growth, and labour costs.
MacKinnon Panel Weather and natural disasters can also significantly affect government’s
spending.
In Budget 2019, built-in levels of prudence include:
• Introducing a voted contingency as recommended by the MacKinnon
Panel. This includes funding for emergencies and disasters at a substantially
higher rate than in past budgets, and more in line with average provincial
spending for wildfires, floods and agricultural disasters.
• Using a realistic revenue forecast. Given Alberta’s volatility, economic
scenarios have been developed in Budget 2019 to illustrate the risk
associated with alternative outcomes.
• Introducing formal, ongoing spending reviews to ensure programs are
delivered effectively and with due regard for value for taxpayers.
• Adding a revenue forecast allowance of $450 million in the last year. This
is in keeping with the MacKinnon Panel recommendation to build a buffer
into revenue once the budget is balanced.
Deficit and Debt

Budget 2019 addresses the full four years of this government’s mandate. This
demonstrates our commitment to the mandate chosen by Albertans and to
public discourse on the transformational changes needed to improve Alberta’s
fiscal situation and service delivery.
Some say we should increases taxes. But the evidence clearly shows that Alberta
spends far more than other provinces. By getting government spending in line
with that of other provinces, Budget 2019 demonstrates to Albertans and credit
agencies that this government is serious about the long-term financial health
of Alberta.
Cash Management Improvements

The most important step in slowing, and ultimately reversing, the growth
of Alberta’s debt and interest cost is to balance the budget. In Budget 2019,
government is also improving how it manages its cash resources. This includes:
• Judiciously using accumulated cash reserves as highlighted by past Auditor
General recommendations, particularly for school boards ($392 million in
accumulated reserves from operations and $226 million in capital reserves).

• Eliminating five regulated funds to reduce administration and debt
servicing. Savings are an estimated $13 million in debt servicing costs.
The funds’ intents will be honoured and spending will continue as planned.
• Consolidating investment funds managed in the public sector to lower costs
and achieve significant and necessary economies of scale that will protect the
funds and government and protect returns to pensioners.
Debt and Debt Servicing

Under the previous government’s plan, taxpayer supported debt was forecast
to rise to $97.1 billion by the end of 2022-23, and debt servicing costs were
projected to almost double to $3.4 billion. Under the new fiscal plan, while
debt and debt servicing costs will continue to rise until budget deficits are
eliminated over the next four years, they will rise at a much slower pace.
Taxpayer supported debt is now forecast to be $93.3 billion at the end of
2022-23 and debt servicing costs are projected to be $3.0 billion during
that year.
Name: DR19_chrt_01.pdf Budget 2019
Taxpayer Supported Debt Overview Debt Reduction
($ billions)
110
Budget 2019 Previous projection
(Third Quarter Update 2018-19)
100
90
80
70
60
pdf name: DR19_chrt_01.pdf

Once the deficit is eliminated, we will continue to be prudent and implement
measures to pay down debt, as recommended by the MacKinnon Panel. We
will not saddle our grandchildren with unnecessary costs because we did not
address the fiscal challenges before us.

Budget 2019 Fiscal Summary
PDF Name: DR19_chrt_01.pdf Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Overview
Budget 2019 Fiscal Summary

(millions 2019
Budget of dollars)
Fiscal Summary
Revenue
Income and Other Taxes 23,578 21,933 23,036 24,473 25,930
Resource revenue – other 2,215 1,845 1,894 2,268 2,460
Investment Income 2,349 2,585 2,697 2,893 3,009
Net Income from Government Business Enterprises 2,585 2,417 2,558 2,495 2,580
Premiums, Fees and Licences 3,911 3,872 4,047 4,131 4,241
Other 3,759 3,482 3,472 3,473 3,446
Total 49,624 50,016 50,079 53,629 57,543
Expense
Operating expense 48,434 48,199 47,335 47,179 47,095
% change from 2018-19 (0.5)% (2.3)% (2.6)% (2.8)%
Disaster assistance 507 636 - - -
Capital grants 1,952 2,086 1,957 1,999 2,024
Amortization / disposal loss / inventory consumption 3,651 3,691 3,775 3,848 3,875
Total 56,329 56,540 55,212 55,482 55,759
Surplus / (deficit) before provisions and allowances (6,705) (6,524) (5,133) (1,853) 1,784
Crude-by-rail provision 6 1,500 - - -
Contingency / unallocated disaster assistance - 680 750 750 750
Revenue forecast allowance - - - - 450
Surplus / (deficit) (6,711) (8,704) (5,883) (2,603) 584
pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_B19-b2019fs-tb.pdf

BUDGET 2019
Fiscal Plan
Economic Outlook
23
Table of Contents
Key Energy and Economic Assumptions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Economic Outlook 2019 – 23. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Chart 1: Alberta economy moves into expansion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Global Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Chart 2: U.S.-China trade slowing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Chart 3: Labour markets remain strong. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Chart 4: Commodities reflecting manufacturing weakness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Chart 5: Muted outlook for oil prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Chart 6: Yield curves inverting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Chart 7: Slowdown in energy sector weighs on Canadian economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Alberta Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Chart 8: Provincial activity rebounds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Chart 9: Investment to fuel growth in domestic demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Chart 10: Delayed recovery in per capita and nominal GDP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Chart 11: Oil a major driver of export growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Chart 12: Differential to remain wide until full market access achieved. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
The Energy Sector’s Contribution to the Canadian Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Chart 13: Oil and gas investment to pick up. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Chart 14: Solid growth in food manufacturing sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Chart 15: Non-energy sector a key driver of investment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Chart 16: Natural increase and immigration drive population growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Chart 17: Unemployment rate to ease gradually. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Chart 18: Participation rate to come down with an aging population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Chart 19: Housing starts to rise gradually. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Chart 20: Weakness in 2019 concentrated in goods spending. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Risks to the Economic Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Table 1: Scenario Impacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
24 Economic Outlook | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Table of Contents, continued
Annex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Oil Price Benchmark. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
How Oil Price Forecasters Fared in Budget 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Natural Gas Price Benchmark. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
How Natural Gas Price Forecasters Did in Budget 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Light‑Heavy Oil Price Differential Benchmark. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Canadian Long‑Term Interest Rate Benchmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
United States / Canada Exchange Rate Benchmark. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Alberta Real Gross Domestic Product Benchmark. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Alberta Nominal Gross Domestic Product Benchmark. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Alberta Primary Household Income Benchmark. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Alberta Net Corporate Operating Surplus Benchmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Alberta Employment Benchmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Alberta Unemployment Rate Benchmark. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Alberta Housing Starts Benchmark. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Economic Outlook | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 25

Key Energy and Economic Assumptions
2017‑18 2018‑19
Fiscal Year Assumptions 2019‑20 2020‑21 2021‑22 2022‑23
Actuals Actuals
Crude Oil Pricesa
WTI (US$/bbl) 53.69 62.77 57.00 58.00 62.00 63.00
Light‑Heavy Differential (US$/bbl) 14.40 23.31 14.20 18.40 21.00 17.10
WCS @ Hardisty (Cdn$/bbl) 50.38 51.65 56.60 52.10 54.00 59.70
a
Natural Gas Price
Alberta Reference Price (Cdn$/GJ) 1.82 1.34 1.30 1.60 1.90 2.00
Production
Conventional Crude Oil (000s barrels/day) 456 489 490 501 509 511
Raw Bitumen (000s barrels/day) 2,804 3,008 3,108 3,266 3,424 3,534
Natural Gas (billions of cubic feet) 4,211 4,158 4,108 4,114 4,116 4,065
Interest Rates
3‑month Canada Treasury Bills (%) 0.85 1.50 1.60 1.50 1.70 1.70
10‑year Canada Bonds (%) 1.91 2.19 1.50 1.90 2.10 2.20
a
Exchange Rate (US¢/Cdn$) 78.0 76.3 75.0 76.0 77.0 78.0
2017 2018
Calendar Year Assumptions 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Actuals Estimates
Gross Domestic Product
Nominal (billions of dollars) 331.9 348.4 360.5 369.6 391.3 414.1 440.3
% change 10.0 5.0 3.5 2.5 5.9 5.8 6.3
Real (billions of 2012 dollars) 336.8 344.2 346.3 355.7 366.1 377.2 388.5
% change 4.4 2.2 0.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0
Other Indicators
Employment (thousands) 2,287 2,331b 2,352 2,390 2,438 2,492 2,546
b
% change 1.0 1.9 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.1
b
Unemployment Rate (%) 7.8 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.2
b
Average Weekly Earnings (% change) 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8
Primary Household Income (% change) 3.0 4.5 3.2 4.3 5.0 5.3 5.6
Net Corporate Operating Surplus (% change) 247.5 16.4 8.3 ‑5.1 17.1 14.0 15.4
b
Housing Starts (thousands of units) 29.5 26.1 24.5 27.3 29.7 32.8 35.0
b
Alberta Consumer Price Index (% change) 1.6 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0
b
Retail Sales (% change) 7.1 2.0 0.9 3.9 4.3 5.0 5.9
c c
Population (thousands) 4,244 4,307 4,378 4,449 4,526 4,614 4,707
c
% change 1.1 1.5 1.6c 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0
c c
Net Migration (thousands) 16.8 32.5 40.9 42.6 47.4 59.5 65.0
a
Forecasts have been rounded
b
Actual
c
Alberta Treasury Board and Finance estimate. Figures do not reflect the actuals released by Statistics Canada on September 30, 2019.

Economic Outlook 2019 – 23
The Alberta economy continues to recover from the 2015-16 recession, the
worst on record. However, momentum faded in late 2018 amid chronic
pipeline delays and a slowing global economy. Real GDP growth is forecast to
slow to 0.6 per cent in 2019 following an estimated 2.2 per cent increase in
2018. With business investment picking up, real GDP is expected to rebound.
It is forecast to grow 2.7 per cent in 2020 and 3.0 per cent over the medium
term (Chart 1). Growth will also be supported by solid exports and a gradual
improvement in the labour market.
As the economy moves from recovery into expansion, private domestic demand
will underpin Alberta’s growth. Reductions in the corporate income tax rate
will put Alberta among the most attractive investment destinations in North
America by 2022. This, along with improved market access, will set the stage
for increasing investment and employment. A relatively young and fast-growing
population will also support Alberta’s growth.
Despite an improved medium-term outlook, Budget 2019 does not assume a
quick rebound. Real GDP will not return to pre-recession levels until 2020,
and the unemployment rate will not reach its 20-year average of around
5 per cent until 2023. While business investment is expected to improve, it
will still be around 70 per cent of pre-recession levels by the end of the forecast
period. In addition, external risks remain high. Geopolitical risks, including
increased trade protectionism and policy uncertainty, are weighing on global
growth prospects and oil prices. Regulatory and political challenges continue to
2019 Budget PDF Name: EO19_chrt_01.pdf
hamper
Economicprogress
Outlook in building pipelines for Alberta’s energy products. This poses
risks for Alberta’s economy, and also for Canada’s.
Chart 1: Alberta economy moves into expansion
Alberta Real GDP
Chart 1: Alberta economy moves into expansion
Alberta Real GDP by Expenditure
(2012$billions) Alberta’s economic expansion

(%)
Level (left) will be led by a resurgence in
450 8
Growth (right) investment and supported by solid
Thousands
400 6 fundamentals.
350
4
300
2
250
0
200
-2
150
-4
100
50 -6
0 -8
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance,
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics and Alberta Treasury Board and
e-estimate, f-forecast
Finance, e-estimate, f-forecast

EO19_chrt_01.pdf
Global Economy
Economic activity has slowed across many of the world’s economies in 2019. This
has dampened global growth expectations. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
recently downgraded its forecast for 2019 global real GDP growth to 3.0 per cent,
0.7 percentage points lower than forecast this time last year. However, current
uncertainty on the trade and policy fronts is expected to dissipate, and the global
economy is anticipated to avoid recession and see growth pick up over the medium
term. The IMF forecasts global real GDP growth to climb to 3.4 per cent in 2020
and hover around 3.6 per cent over the forecast horizon.
Short‑term uncertainty holding back growth
U.S., China elevate trade rhetoric to action

U.S. and China trade relations began to deteriorate markedly in mid‑2018
as the U.S. advanced a protectionist trade policy. This led to slowing trade
between the two countries (Chart 2). As of the end of August, the U.S.
had imposed tariffs on US$550 billion worth of Chinese products; China
responded with tariffs on US$185 billion worth of U.S. products. The trade
row is weighing on investment globally as corporations have become wary of
slowing demand and the sustainability of investing in global supply chains.
Uncertainty on the global trade and investment fronts has hit manufacturing
output particularly hard. The second quarter of 2019 saw China manufacturing
grow at the slowest pace since early 2002. U.S. manufacturing shipments fell
in2019
the Budget
first two quarters of 2019, while German real manufacturing shipments
declined
Economic3 per cent
Outlook between January and August.
Chart 2: US-China trade softening

Real US Exports and Imports with China (SA)
Chart 2: U.S.-China trade slowing
U.S. Trade with China (Seasonally Adjusted)
U.S.-China trade flows have fallen (US$2012B)

(US$2012B)
amid the ongoing trade rift.
60 14
Thousands
55 13
50 12
45 11
40 10
35 Imports from China (left) 9
30 Exports to China (right) 8
25 7
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics and Alberta
Sources: US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Alberta
Treasury Board and Finance

EO19_chrt_02.pdf
The U.S.‑China trade rift and associated global impacts has led many analysts
to downgrade 2019 and 2020 global trade growth projections. The latest World
Trade Organization (WTO) outlook has global merchandise trade volumes
growing a paltry 1.2 per cent in 2019, the slowest pace in a decade. Near‑term
resolution of outstanding issues, though, should help accelerate trade growth to
2.7 per cent in 2020. Over the medium term, this rate of growth is anticipated
to climb gradually.
Brexit unknowns contributing to EU weakness

In Europe, uncertainty over the U.S.‑China trade dispute is being compounded
by a lack of clarity over Brexit, the exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the
European Union (EU). Consumption and investment indicators broadly held
up through the first half of 2019 in much of Europe, but growth is slowing.
Brexit uncertainty is expected to weigh on these variables and exacerbate the
weakness in manufacturing and trade associated with U.S.‑China relations.
As with global trade, policy clarity on Brexit is expected to emerge in 2020,
leading to an acceleration in Euro Area growth from 1.2 per cent in 2019 to
1.4 per cent in 2020, that will carry into the medium term.
Households providing support

Labour markets and consumer spending are a bright spot across many economies.
These areas of strength are expected to provide a bridge of support to global
economic activity until trade and foreign policy uncertainty dissipate.
Unemployment
2019 Budget
rates in many major economies, including those facing the PDF Name: EO19_chrt_03.pdf
Economic Outlook multi‑year, if not decade, lows (Chart 3). All this is occurring
most risks, are at
alongside steady labour force growth. As a consequence, household economic
Chart 3: Labour markets remain resilient
Unemployment
Chart Rates
3: Labour markets in Select
remain strongAdvanced Economies
Unemployment Rates in Select Advanced Economies
(%) U.S., Canada and UK

Canada UK* Germany Japan US
14 unemployment rates are at the
13 lowest levels in 40-50 years, while
12 Germany’s is at lowest since at least
11 the fall of the Berlin Wall. Japan’s
10 rate is at a generational low.
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Sources: Statistics Canada, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistical Office of the European
Communities, Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and Haver Analytics
*Sources:
Based on Statistics Canada,
3-month moving average. US Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Statistical Office of the European Communities and Japan Ministry
of Health, Labour and Welfare
* Based on
Economic 3-month
Outlook | Fiscalmoving average.
Plan 2019
– 23 29
EO19_chrt_03.pdf
activity has been robust, especially in the U.S. With growth accelerating in each
of the last four months, retail sales south of the border were up 3.3 per cent
year‑to‑date, while housing starts reached a 12‑year high in August.
Consumer strength will also support growth in emerging markets. The IMF
continues to see developing Asia experiencing robust growth near 6 per cent
through their forecast horizon, even as growth in China slows due to the shift
from an export‑driven to a consumption‑driven economy.
Medium‑term outlook remains promising

With continued consumer strength and reduced policy uncertainty in 2020,
medium‑term growth expectations remain unchanged and positive, even with
weaker near‑term projections. Broadly speaking, most advanced economies are
expected to see growth accelerate in 2020, except the U.S.. Tax rate reductions
contributed to strong labour and consumption performance in the first half of
2019 that positioned the U.S. to record robust growth of nearly 2.5 per cent for
the year. As the impact of fiscal policy dissipates, growth in the U.S. is expected
to slow slightly in 2020 and over the forecast horizon. The Philadelphia Federal
Reserve’s Survey of Professional Forecasters sees U.S. GDP growth for 2020 at
1.9 per cent and close to 2 per cent through 2022.
Commodity prices reflect current weakness

The slowdown in manufacturing and higher investment uncertainty has led to
a general softening in commodity prices. While there has been some rebound
in lead and nickel prices of late, safe haven gold has appreciated on geopolitical
2019 Budget PD
uncertainty.
Economic OutlookBase metal prices have been trending markedly lower since the
beginning of 2019 (Chart 4), and oil prices have followed suit since early spring.
Chart 4: Commodities reflecting manufacturing weakness
Indices of Select Commodity Prices
Chart 4: Commodities reflecting manufacturing weakness
Indices of Select Commodity Prices
Slowing trade is reflected (Jan 1,

2018=100) Gold Aluminum
in commodity prices; base
125 Lead Tin
metal prices are declining with
Zinc
manufacturing woes, while gold, a 115
safe haven asset, has strengthened.
105
95
85
75
65
55
Sources: Wall Street Journal, London Metal Exchange and Haver Analytics
Sources: Wall Street Journal, London Metal Exchange and Haver Analytics
EO19_chrt_04.pdf
Modest improvement in oil prices following short‑term volatility
Benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices have been volatile this
year, with the focus in oil markets shifting from oversupply to demand
weakness. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), primarily
Saudi Arabia, has adhered strongly to production cuts, but ongoing concerns
about the global economy have weakened WTI prices. Global oil demand
growth has slowed, but is expected to stabilize next year as trade tensions and
fears about an economic slowdown dissipate. On the supply side, even if OPEC
stays the course into 2020, with or without U.S. sanctions on Iran, continued
growth in non‑OPEC supply will keep a lid on prices.
WTI prices are expected to remain between US$50/bbl and US$60/bbl in
the short term. WTI for 2019‑20 is forecast to average US$57/bbl, increasing
marginally to average US$58/bbl in 2020‑21 (Chart 5). Over the medium
term,
2019 demand is anticipated to improve, but ample supply will keep prices
Budget PDF Name: EO19_chrt_05.pdf
Economic Outlook
constrained to the low to mid US$60/bbl range.
Chart 5: Muted outlook for oil prices

Chart Texas
West 5: Muted outlook for oil prices
Intermediate
West Texas Intermediate
(US$/bbl) Oil demand is expected to pick up,

120 but ample supply will keep prices
contained over the medium term.
100
80
60
40
20
Source: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance; f-forecast
Source: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, e-estimate, f-forecast
EO19_chrt_05.pdf

Monetary policy easing
Near‑term economic weakness is putting downward pressure on long‑term
bond yields and pushing central banks to adopt more accommodative
monetary policy. Some jurisdictions are seeing yield curves invert and others
are facing negative interest rates (Chart 6). That position is expected to remain
in the short term. The U.S. Federal Reserve already reduced its target overnight
interest rate range twice this year, while Brazil, India, Russia, Mexico, New
Zealand, Australia and several smaller countries have also reduced their key
central bank rates.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has been an outlier among central banks so far
this year in holding its key overnight rate steady. However, given the current
slowdown and risks in the global economy, the BoC is expected to cut its key
policy rate in the near term. As the economy gains some momentum over
the medium term, interest rates are expected to rise gradually but remain
accommodative. The 10‑year rate is forecast to reach 2.2 per cent by 2022‑23.
The relative strength in Canadian bond yields, a resilient Canadian economy,
and energy market improvements are expected to lift the Loonie throughout
theBudget
2019 forecast horizon. The exchange rate is expected to average 0.75US¢/Cdn$ PDF
Economic Outlookand 0.76US¢/Cdn$ in 2020‑21, climbing to 0.78US¢/Cdn$ by
in 2019‑20
2022‑23.
Chart 6: Yield curves inverting
Spread Between 10-Year and 3-Month US and Canada Bond Yields
Chart 6: Yield curves inverting
Spread Between Select 10-Year and 3-Month Bond Yields
Slowing global growth and (%)

weaker market sentiment are 3.5 US
putting downward pressure on Canada
3.0 Euro Area Benchmark
long‑term bond yields.
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
Sources: Bank of Canada, U.S. Treasury Department, European Central Bank, Haver Analytics
and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
Sources: US Treasury and Bank of Canada
EO19_chrt_06.pdf

Canadian economy resilient
Canada is contending with similar headwinds as the rest of the world, but
challenges unique to the country are fading. Trade issues and weakness in
Alberta’s energy sector and Canada’s housing sector weighed on growth in the
first quarter of 2019. However, a pick-up in residential investment and exports,
helped by crude oil shipments, contributed to a significant uptick in the second
quarter. Canada’s labour market remains strong, with employment growth above
2 per cent year-to-date and the unemployment rate at 5.5 per cent. Overall,
Canadian real GDP is expected to grow 1.4 per cent in 2019.
Growth is expected to advance in 2020 to 1.8 per cent. This is partly due to
an improvement in Alberta’s economy and rebound in oil production (see box
on page 39 for more on the energy sector and Alberta’s role in the Canadian
economy). Less trade uncertainty, continued strong immigration, and investment
will drive growth. In addition, increased consumer spending and housing market
stabilization under a more accommodative monetary policy are also anticipated to
help the national economy. Over the medium term, growth is forecast to remain
just Budget
2019 under 2 per cent. PDF Name: EO19_chrt_07.pdf
Economic Outlook
Chart 7: Slowdown in energy sector weighs on Canadian economy

Contribution toinYear-Over-Year
Chart 7: Slowdown energy sector weighs Change ineconomy
on Canadian Real GDP by Industry
Contribution to Year-Over-Year Change in Real GDP by Industry
(percentage Services Industries Global trade woes and energy
points) Non-Oil and Gas Goods Industries
Oil and Gas Related Goods Industries*
sector slowdown holding back
5 Canadian economic growth.
Real GDP by Industry
4
-1
-2
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
* Oil and gas extraction, support services for mining, oil and gas and engineering construction.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
* Oil and gas extraction, support services for mining, oil and gas and engineering construction.
chrt_07.pdf

Alberta Economy
Market access delays and mounting uncertainty in the global economy are
prolonging the recovery in Alberta’s economy. Real GDP is now forecast to grow
0.6 per cent in 2019, much slower than in the previous two years. Growth is set to
resume at a solid pace beyond 2019, as lower corporate income tax rates and easing
market access constraints lead to a broad‑based improvement in investment. This
will support a stronger labour market and population growth.
Pipeline constraints hinder short‑term growth

The Alberta economy is slowly regaining its footing after activity slowed
sharply in late 2018 and early 2019. This was due to crude transportation
bottlenecks and unprecedented discounts for Alberta crude, which led to
government‑mandated oil production limits. The Alberta Activity Index, a
measure of provincial economic activity, rose 2.7 per cent in the second quarter
after hitting a trough in the first quarter of 2019 (Chart 8). Manufacturing
and services are propping up growth this year. However, activity is expected
to increase only modestly due to the delay in Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline,
increased uncertainty about the global economy and weak energy investment.
The Alberta economy is forecast to grow at a tepid pace of 0.6 per cent after
rising an estimated 2.2 per cent in 2018. With slower growth, the economy
is not expected to move into expansion until 2020, when real GDP surpasses
pre‑2015‑16
2019 Budget recession levels. This marks the longest recovery from a downturn PDF Na
Economic
on recordOutlook
in Alberta.
Chart 8:
The Alberta Activity Index (AAX)
Chart 8: Provincial activity rebounds
Alberta Activity Index (AAX)
Provincial economic activity (Q3-2014=100)
bounced back in the second 102
AAX Peak=100
quarter of 2019.
100
98
96
94
92
90
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
EO19_chrt_08.pdf

Domestic demand to lead expansion
After slowing in 2019, the Alberta economy is set to expand at a solid pace.
Stronger private domestic demand and solid exports will underpin growth
(Chart 9). In 2020, real GDP is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent as oil production
rebounds amid rising production limits. Business investment, which has been a
drag on the economy since 2015, will start contributing to growth. It is expected
to rise 4 per cent on the back of a modest turnaround in oil and gas investment
and strong investment in other industries. Sentiment is also expected to improve
as investment
Economic picks up, boosting employment and consumer spending. These will
Outlook
help offset the pullback in government spending.
Chart 9: Investment drives domestic demand growth

Chart 9: Investment
Contribution to fuel growth
to Change in domestic
in Alberta Real demand
GDP by Expenditure
Contribution to Change in Alberta Real GDP by Expenditure
(percentage Growth will become increasingly

points) driven by domestic demand as
Exports Total Domestic Demand*
the economy moves from
10 Imports Real GDP (%)
recovery to expansion.
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Sources: Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance;
* Includes total household, business, and government spending
Sources:
Over Statistics
the medium Canada
term, a lowerand Alberta
corporate taxTreasury Board
burden and and
easing Finance; e-estimate, f-
transportation
forecast will set the stage for gains in both energy and non‑energy
constraints
* Includes total
investment. Withhousehold, business,
corporate profits and
in the government
province spending
increasing by around
$26 billion between 2020 and 2023, non‑residential business investment is
EO19_chrt_09.pdf
expected to rise by almost $12 billion over the same period. Even with the
strong recovery, both corporate profits and investment will remain below 2014
levels by the end of the forecast period.
Along with the resurgence in investment, rising oil production and
manufacturing capacity expansions will support exports. A pick‑up in population
growth and a stronger labour market will also boost consumer spending and
residential investment. Real GDP growth is forecast to accelerate, averaging
3.0 per cent from 2021 to 2023, before moving closer to Alberta’s potential
growth rate of around 2.4 per cent over the longer term.

A prolonged recovery
Despite the full recovery in economic output next year, the lingering effects of
the downturn will continue to be felt in parts of the economy. The economy
is not expected to reach full employment until the end of the forecast period,
when the unemployment rate is forecast to average 5.2 per cent. Real GDP per
capita, a measure of standard of living, is not anticipated to fully recover over the
2019 Budget PDF Na
forecast horizon. Nominal GDP, a broad measure of income, will also see a more
Economic Outlook
prolonged recovery, in line with the muted outlook for oil prices (Chart 10).
Chart 10: Delayed recovery in per capita GDP and nominal GDP
Real GDP, real GDP per capita and nomial GDP index to Pre-recession level
Chart 10: Delayed recovery in per capita and nominal GDP
Real GDP, Real GDP Per Capita and Nominal GDP, Indexed to 2014 Peak
Some economic indicators (2014=100)
will lag behind the recovery Real GDP
120
in economic output. Real GDP per Capita
115
Nominal GDP
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Source:
ExportsStatistics
a linchpinCanada, Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
of growth
Exports continue to be a key driver of Alberta’s economic growth. A weak
EO19_chrt_10.pdf
Canadian dollar and solid U.S. economy are supporting manufacturing exports
this year, which are forecast to increase 4.5 per cent in real terms. Crude oil
production continues to expand at a moderate pace. Government‑mandated
oil production limits have risen by 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) since
January, while crude‑by‑rail shipments have rebounded. Real oil exports and
total exports are estimated to grow just over 3 per cent. In 2020, pipeline
debottlenecking and rising rail shipments will boost crude oil production
by around 178,000 bpd. This should lift overall growth in real exports to
3.8 per cent (Chart 11).
Over the medium term, growth in oil production is projected to moderate.
Around 197,000 bpd are expected to be added between 2021 and 2023, largely
driven by a number of in‑situ expansions coming on line. This will bring Alberta’s
crude oil production to nearly 4.1 million bpd by the end of the forecast period
and maintain Canada’s position as one of the world’s largest oil producers.

Economic Outlook
Chart 11
Contribution to Change in Alberta Real Exports
Chart 11: Oil a major driver of export growth
Contribution to Change in Alberta Real Exports
(percentage Exports will continue to be a key
points) Other Manufacturing
driver of growth, supported by
Oil Total Exports
10 rising oil production and expanding
manufacturing capacity.
8
-2
-4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance; e-estimate, f-forecast
Manufacturing capacity expansions and continued demand for agri‑food,

Source:
machineryAlberta Treasuryand
and equipment, Board andproducts
forestry Finance,will e-estimate, f-forecast
also boost overall
exports over the medium term. This, along with rising crude oil production,
will lift average growth in real overall exports to nearly 3 per cent between
EO19_chrt_11.pdf
2021 and 2023.
Market access challenges a drag on Alberta prices

While ongoing production limits are weighing on real GDP this year, they are
keeping the price discount between WTI and Alberta’s heavy oil benchmark
WCS in a narrow range. The light‑heavy differential is forecast to average
US$14.20/bbl in 2019‑20, boosting corporate profits for energy producers.
The differential is then expected to increase by about US$4/bbl to US$18.40/bbl
in 2020‑21. This reflects the higher cost of transporting crude by rail. At the same
time, new sulphur regulations for marine fuels by the International Maritime
Organization (IMO) are set to take effect in January 2020. The regulations are
expected to reduce demand for heavy oil and put additional pressure on prices
(Chart 12). Enbridge’s Line 3 is expected to add pipeline capacity starting in early
2021, but the differential will continue to reflect higher-cost rail until the fourth
quarter of 2022. This is when the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline is
expected to come online, followed by Keystone XL in early 2023. The differential
is forecast to average US$17.10/bbl in 2022‑2023.
Alberta natural gas producers are also facing significant market access issues.
Regional infrastructure bottlenecks and maintenance outages on the Nova Gas
Transmission Ltd (NGTL) pipeline system are constraining Western Canadian
natural gas producers’ ability to move natural gas to markets. Also, abundant and
low cost U.S. shale gas is displacing Alberta natural gas from traditional markets
across North America. Alberta’s natural gas supply will continue to grow with
increased connectivity of Montney gas into Alberta and export markets with
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Tab: Chart 11 ExportsC2G Last updated: 2019-10-15: 12:08 PM
2019 Budget
Economic Outlook
Chart 12:
Oil Prices
Chart 12: Differential to remain wide until full market access achieved
Oil Prices
Higher transportation costs and (US$/bbl)

IMO’s new sulphur regulations WTI-WCS Differential
120
will also widen the light-heavy WTI
differential on prices. 100 WCS
80
60
40
20
Sources: Alberta Energy and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, f-forecast
TC Energy’s expansion of its NGTL system. Abundant natural gas supply means
Sources: Alberta
prices in Alberta Energytoand
are expected Alberta
improve Treasury
only modestly. TheBoard
Albertaand Finance, f-forecas
reference
price for natural gas is forecast to rise gradually from $1.30/GJ in 2019‑20 to
$2.00/GJ in 2022‑23, but remain low by historical norms.
EO19_chrt_12.pdf
With natural gas prices depressed, drillers are expected to continue targeting
natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are priced more closely to oil. Over the
medium term, demand for natural gas and NGLs is expected to rise due to
expanding oil sands operations, continued transition to gas power generation,
and an expanding petrochemical industry in Alberta. In addition, two new
propane terminals in B.C. will boost propane demand: Pembina’s project
in Prince Rupert, which is expected to start in the second half of 2020, and
AltaGas’s export terminal on Ridley Island, Canada’s first propane export
facility, which began operations in May 2019.
Energy investment to pick up following 2019 weakness

A lack of market access and competitiveness pressures are weighing heavily on
oil and gas investment in the province. This has negative implications for both
the Alberta and Canadian economies (see p.39). The narrower light‑heavy
differential has boosted cash flow for producers in 2019, but market access
constraints have held back capital spending. Drilling is down more than
30 per cent through September compared with the same period last year. At
the same time, increased uncertainty about the global economic outlook is
weighing on global oil prices and will likely keep a lid on drilling activity for
the rest of the year. Conventional oil and gas investment is forecast to decline
by about 20 per cent this year after posting a modest growth estimated around
4 per cent in 2018. Non‑conventional investment is also forecast to decline
3.5 per cent, the fifth consecutive year of contraction. Continued growth in
bitumen production is supporting sustaining capital for existing projects,
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Tab: Chart 12 WCSWTI Last up
The Energy Sector’s Contribution to the Canadian Economy
The energy sector is a key driver the Canadian In addition to activity, Alberta is consistently
economy. Over 10 per cent of Canada’s total income, the largest per capita net fiscal contributor in
measured by nominal GDP, was generated from the the country. In the last decade, the province
sector in 2018. The same year, energy companies contributed about $211 billion more to the federal
attracted over 30 per cent, or over $50 billion, of government through taxes than it received back in
total private sector investment in the country, and federal spending. In 2017, the province’s net fiscal
sold almost $125 billion worth of products to the contribution was about $22 billion. This is enough
rest of the world. These energy exports represented money to fund:
about $3,300 for every Canadian, far higher than • the total cost of the Canadian Employment
the $2,200 per Canadian for motor vehicles and Insurance program ($18 billion in 2017), or
$1,600 for consumer goods. Crude exports from the
resource-rich provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, • 110 per cent of approved federal infrastructure
and Newfoundland and Labrador expanded at an funding under the Investing in Canada
average pace of 12 per cent per year over the past 20 Plan, (estimated at over $19.9 billion in
years, compared with 3 per cent for all other exports. Budget 2019), or
Given the outsized role that Alberta plays in • more than 90 per cent of the Canada Child
Canada’s energy sector, Canada’s prosperity is closely Benefit Program, or
tied to the strength of the Alberta economy. In • about 60 per cent of federal health transfers to
2015, when oil prices collapsed, Alberta entered a provinces, or
severe recession (alongside declines in Saskatchewan • over 40 per cent of Canada’s Old Age Security
and Newfoundland and Labrador), causing a Program (valued at $50 billion in 2017).
sharp slowdown in national economic activity.
Business investment in Canada has yet to recover, The lack of pipeline access and resulting wider
and remains $28 billion below 2014 levels. Severe price differential for crude produced in Alberta
transportation bottlenecks due to insufficient is a national issue, hurting heavy oil producers,
pipeline capacity caused Alberta crudes to trade at government revenues, and the Canadian economy.
unprecedented discounts in late 2018. This triggered Alberta Treasury Board and Finance estimates that
the province to impose mandatory production without sufficient market access, the Canadian
limits, which contributed to Canadian real GDP economy lost almost $19 billion in 2018 due to
growth stalling in late 2018 and early 2019. steep price discounts. If no additional pipelines
come online, Canada stands to forgo more
Through supply chains and trade linkages, Alberta
than $43 billion in lost income due to reduced
businesses and individuals support economic activity
production and investment between 2019 and
across the country. Alberta has the second largest
2023, or almost $9 billion per year. The lost income
interprovincial trade volume in the country after
translates into about 35,000 jobs per year in Canada.
Ontario. In 2017, the province imported over
Steep discounts for Canadian crude also mean that
$74 billion in goods and services from the rest of
Canadian consumers lose out. When domestic oil
Canada. Between 2010 and 2015, the latest data
is sold at steep discounts compared with foreign
available, an average of 120,000 people per year
crudes, domestic producers take a hit through lower
worked in Alberta but lived in other provinces.
revenue. Meanwhile consumers, and refineries
These people brought a total of $33.8 billion in
importing foreign crude, pay higher prices based on
taxable earnings back to their home provinces.
international crudes. Money flows out of the country
and lowers income for the entire nation.

but chronic pipeline delays have prompted several companies to defer
investment on new greenfield projects (such as Imperial Oil’s Aspen project).
Oil and gas investment is expected to turn a corner in 2020 and pick up
over the medium term. It is forecast to rebound by 4.5 per cent in 2020 as
producers slowly ramp up drilling and production ahead of Enbridge’s Line 3
coming online. As market access and prices improve, oil and gas investment is
forecast to accelerate and grow at an average of 7.7 per cent from 2021 to 2023.
Growing bitumen production will boost demand for condensate. In addition,
conventional investment will stand to benefit from infrastructure expansions in
liquids‑rich gas regions and also support higher drilling for condensate. Even
2019 Budget PDF Nam
with the
Economic strong growth, energy investment is forecast to be roughly half of
Outlook
pre‑recession levels by the end of the forecast period (Chart 13).
Chart 13: Energy investment to pick up as pipeline uncertainty
Alberta Nominal Oil and Gas Investment and crude oil production
Chart 13: Oil and gas investment to pick up
Alberta Nominal Oil and Gas Investment and Crude Oil Production
While energy investment is ($billion) Conventional Investment (Left) (000's bpd)

expected to pick up over the Oil Sands Investment (Left)
70 Production (Right) 4,500
medium term , it will remain well
below the 2014 peak. 4,000
60
3,500
50
3,000
40 2,500
30 2,000
1,500
20
1,000
10
500
0 0
Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance; e-estimate, f-forecast
Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, e-estim
Manufacturing investment a bright spot in the economy
EO19_chrt_13.pdf
Capacity expansions will boost investment and expand the province’s
manufacturing base in the coming years. Construction of the $3.5 billion
Heartland Petrochemical Complex has ramped up this year, with capital spending
projected to reach $1.1 billion in 2019 and $1.3 billion in 2020 and 2021.
This facility, the first integrated propane dehydrogenation and polypropylene
facility in Canada, is scheduled to begin operations in late 2021 and will process
about 22,000 bpd of propane into value‑added plastic products. Construction
is scheduled to start later this year on a second major petrochemical project that
is expected to be in service by mid‑2023. These projects were approved under
Alberta’s Petrochemicals Diversification Program.
Alberta’s growing petrochemical industry will benefit from the abundance
of NGL feedstock in the province. Over the past few years, natural gas
fractionation capacity has increased, allowing deeper extraction of NGL

components such as butane and propane. Since 2015, extraction of butane and
propane has grown by an estimated 45 per cent and 60 per cent, respectively.
Food manufacturing is the third largest manufacturing industry in the province
and will continue to grow. After reaching a record high of around $14 billion
in 2018, food manufacturing sales grew 3.2 per cent through July compared
to the same period last year (Chart 14). This sector will further benefit from
the completed $430 million Cavendish Farms potato processing plant in
Lethbridge. The plant will require 12,000 additional acres of locally grown
potatoes, a high‑margin crop for Alberta farmers. Champion Petfoods is also
2019 Budget a state‑of‑the‑art custom kitchen facility in Parkland County that is
building PDF Name: EO19_chrt_14.pdf
Economic Outlook
scheduled to open in the coming months. This $250 million facility is expected
to support 200 new jobs.
Chart 14: Stable growth in food manufacturing
Growth in Food Manufacturing Sales in Alberta
Chart 14: Solid growth in food manufacturing sales
Growth in Food Manufacturing Sales in Alberta
(%) Food manufacturing has

12 been a solid contributor to
the Alberta economy since
10
the 2015-16 recession.
8
-2
-4
Source: Statistics Canada

* Year-to-date through July
Transportation and utility sectors support non‑residential

Sources: Statistics Canada
investment
* Year-to-date through July
Business investment in Alberta is also getting a boost from an upturn in
EO19_chrt_14.pdf
midstream energy infrastructure projects. Strong production growth from
liquids‑rich gas plays in western Alberta and northeastern B.C. has spurred
investment in pipeline capacity and processing facilities in these areas. Among
these projects are Pembina’s expansion of its Peace pipeline system and
TC Energy’s expansion of its Nova Gas Transmission System. These projects
will connect incremental supply from the Montney, Duvernay and Deep Basins
to markets. Moreover, the province’s transition to gas‑fired electrical power
generation has encouraged the construction of pipelines that connect natural
gas to electricity generation plants.
Strong crude oil production in the province has created the need to expand
pipeline capacity out of Western Canada. The domestic portion of Enbridge’s

Line 3 pipeline is nearing completion and is slated to go into service by the end
of this year. Construction of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion resumed in
communities along the route between Edmonton and Edson, and in the Greater
Edmonton area. Trans Mountain Corporation expects this project to employ
close to 4,200 workers from various communities along the route by year’s end.
Ongoing transportation bottlenecks are also spurring investment in
transportation and warehousing facilities. The USD Group’s crude‑by‑rail
loading terminal at Hardisty expanded last year. Crude‑by‑rail shipments
are expected to pick up in the near term as oil companies use more rail
transportation. Crude oil storage is increasing with Gibson Energy’s
construction of new tanks in Hardisty, which will add over three million
barrels of storage capacity by the end of 2020. The province’s warehousing
and distribution sector is getting a boost from the construction of Amazon’s
$120 million customer fulfillment centre in the Edmonton area. The
approximately one million square foot facility is scheduled to open in Spring
2020 and will employ more than 600 permanent, full‑time staff.
The province is also attracting investment into renewable energy. Encouraged
by Alberta’s unregulated electricity market, Perimeter Solar’s $200 million
solar power project is set to start construction this year and be completed
in September 2020. This project comes on the heels of Greengate Power’s
$500 million solar power project in southern Alberta that received regulatory
approval in the summer. The project is scheduled to start construction next
year, with full commercial operations targeted for 2021. This facility will be the
largest solar energy project in Canada. BHE Canada, a subsidiary of Berkshire
2019 Budget PDF Nam
Hathaway Energy, is also set to break ground on a $200 million new wind farm
Economic Outlook
in southeast Alberta in 2020. The Rattlesnake Ridge Wind is expected to begin
generating energy for Alberta’s grid in December 2021.
Chart 15: Investment outside oil and gas extraction a
key investment driver
Change in Alberta Non-Residential Business Investment
Chart 15: Non-energy sector a key driver of investment
Change in Alberta Investment in Non-Residential Business Investment
Investment outside the oil ($billion)

and gas sector will be boosted 6
Other Mining
by infrastructure projects and 5 Other Industries
capacity expansions in the
4 Oil and Gas Extraction
manufacturing industry. Total
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
2017 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, e-estim
42 EO19_chrt_15.pdf Economic Outlook | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

This upturn in industrial investment will more than offset weak commercial
building investment amid elevated commercial inventories. Capacity expansions
in the manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and utility sectors
are expected to lift investment in other industries by about $1.6 billion, or
5 per cent, in 2019 (Chart 15). Further reductions in the corporate income tax
rate will propel investment in industries outside oil and gas extraction, which
is forecast to accelerate over the medium term and peak at nearly 7 per cent
growth in 2021.
Trade restrictions hit the agriculture sector

Trade issues are turning 2019 into a challenging year for the province’s
agriculture sector. China’s trade restrictions on Canadian canola seed shipments
in March, along with weaker prices, dragged down Alberta’s canola seed
export value by 25 per cent through the first seven months of 2019. This was
partly offset by stronger exports of other crops such as barley and wheat. In
particular, Alberta’s wheat exports climbed after a series of droughts led to lower
production in Australia, and China levied tariffs on U.S. wheat imports last
year. Year‑to‑date (January to July), the value of Alberta wheat exports were up
9.8 per cent and wheat exports to China rose 59 per cent compared to the same
period in 2018. Given the lingering trade uncertainty, some farmers shifted
from canola to other crops during the spring planting season and Canadian
canola exporters are seeking new markets.
Alberta’s livestock industry is faring well, but continues to face similar trade
restrictions on beef and pork products into the Chinese market. A weak
Canadian dollar and solid demand, particularly in the U.S., supported strong
growth in live animal exports during the first half of the year. Trade issues
with China will continue to weigh on export prices for certain pork and beef
products, while producers seek alternate markets for their products.
Over the medium term, Alberta’s agri‑food exports are expected to get a
boost from signing of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement. Other
agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for
Trans‑Pacific Partnership will also enhance Alberta’s access to more diverse
markets and support growth.
Services a source of growth

The service sector, which accounts for more than 60 per cent of the Alberta
economy, continues to be resilient. Demand for services that support the oil
and gas sector is weak, but an upturn in industrial construction and solid
population growth are providing support to overall services. Tourism is
benefitting from solid growth in international visits so far this year, supported
in part by a weak Canadian dollar and strong U.S. economy.
Going forward, Alberta’s service sector will continue to expand. Telus is
planning to invest $16 billion in Alberta over the next five years to expand
its broadband infrastructure, which will boost information services in the
province. Consumer services will benefit from a growing population and
ongoing income growth. Professional, scientific and technical, and other
business services are forecast to benefit as energy investment recovers and

the manufacturing and transportation sectors expand. Growth in the U.S.
economy, albeit at a slower pace than in the recent past, and the popularity of
national parks in Alberta should support a thriving tourism industry.
Policy measures to boost growth

Budget 2019 commits to restraining spending in order to balance the budget
by 2022‑23. As a result, Alberta’s real GDP growth is expected to rotate away
from the government sector and to the private sector. Recent policy measures
are expected to strengthen business investment and support job creation. After
passing the Job Creation Tax Cut in June 2019 and paralleling federal measures
to enhance the capital cost allowance regime, Alberta will once again have the
most competitive corporate tax regime in Canada. The Job Creation Tax Cut
will benefit all sectors of the economy, including the energy, manufacturing,
construction, and service industries. It is expected to boost capital investment
in the province by around $4 billion per year by 2023 and real GDP growth
by 0.3‑0.4 percentage points annually between 2020 and 2023 (see p.142, Tax
Chapter for more info).
Immigration driving population growth

Alberta’s population growth is continuing to rebound from recession lows. In
the 2019 census year, the population grew 1.6 per cent, the highest rate since
2014, boosted by solid levels of immigration. Interprovincial migration, while
relatively small, posted the first net annual gain after three consecutive years
of net losses. In 2020, relatively small net in‑migration is forecast as levels
continue to recover after the 2015‑16 recession. Immigration, which is less
2019 Budget PDF N
sensitive to economic conditions, will be the dominant driver of population
Economic Outlook
growth. Alberta has attracted a double‑digit share of national immigrant
landings since the late 2000s. Higher federal immigration targets will lead to
Chart 16: Natural increase and immigration drive
more immigrants coming into the province. The number of net non‑permanent
population growth
Annual change in the Alberta population by component
Chart 16: Natural increase and immigration drive population growth
Annual Change in the Alberta Population by Component
Population growth is
projected to accelerate with Natural Increase (Left) Net International (Left) (%)
(thousands)
a pick-up in economic activity Net Interprovincial (Left) Population Growth (Right)
120 3.0
and rising immigration.
2.5
80 2.0
1.5
40 1.0
0.5
0 0.0
-0.5
-40 -1.0
Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board

residents (including temporary foreign workers) is expected to remain positive
after several years of substantial net outflows. As the province with the youngest
population, Alberta has the highest growth due to natural increase of the
provinces. Robust natural increase and increasing immigration will support
population growth of 1.6 per cent in 2020 (Chart 16).
Over the medium term, Alberta’s population growth is projected to accelerate
in tandem with a pick‑up in economic activity. With investment strengthening,
net interprovincial migration is forecast to rise quite strongly. Established
immigrant streams tend to be self‑perpetuating, and the province is forecast
to settle about 13 per cent of immigrants to Canada. Higher average incomes
and a lower cost of living should also help the province attract people from
across the country. This, combined with strong natural increase, will help boost
population growth to 2.0 per cent by 2023.
Labour market to strengthen

Alberta’s labour market has been resilient considering the slowdown in
economic activity in late 2018 and early 2019. Modest job gains have been
propped up by private sector employment increases of more than 21,000
since December. By industry, however, job gains have been concentrated in
the service sector. Goods sector employment has fallen further this year as
weakness in drilling and construction activity more than offset strength in
manufacturing. With the slower pace of economic activity, annual employment
growth is forecast to moderate from 1.9 per cent in 2018 to 0.9 per cent in
2019 (Chart 17). Employment growth is expected to accelerate to 1.6 per cent
next
2019year and average about 2 per cent thereafter as the economy gathers pace.
Budget PDF Name: EO19_chrt_17.pdf
Economic Outlook
Against a backdrop of continued slack in the labour market, weakness in
higher‑paid goods sector employment is holding back growth in average weekly
Chart 17: Unemployment rate to ease gradually
Labour Market Indicators
Chart 17: Unemployment rate to ease gradually
Labour Market Indicators
(%) The labour market will gradually

Unemployment Rate
9 improve over the medium term as
Labour Force* Growth
8 the Alberta economy gathers pace.
Employment Growth
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
* The number of people working or looking for work.
Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, f-forecast
*The number
Economic Outlookof| people working
Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23or looking for work. 45
EO19_chrt_17.pdf
earnings. This is expected to limit earnings growth to 1.8 per cent this year.
Growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.8 per cent in 2020 and average 3.5 per cent
in the succeeding three years as a pick‑up in energy and construction activity
fuels a strong recovery in goods sector employment. Primary household
income will follow a similar trend, climbing from 3.2 per cent growth in 2019
to 5.6 per cent at the end of the forecast horizon. Albertans are expected to
see steady increases in real incomes over the medium term and maintain the
highest earnings among the provinces.
Gradual decline in the unemployment rate

Alberta’s unemployment rate has ticked up as modest gains in employment
have failed to keep pace with a rising labour force. Overall, the labour force is
expected to increase by about 25,000 this year as a pick‑up in migration fuels
a robust increase in the province’s working age population. This is putting
upward pressure on the unemployment rate, but a decline in the labour force
participation rate is tempering the impact. The participation rate has fallen
further this year after a long‑term decline since 2008, and is hovering around
25‑year lows. Some of this decline reflects the impact of an aging population,
as older workers tend to participate less in the workforce, which in turn drags
down the overall participation rate. Ongoing slack in the labour market,
including more long‑term unemployed and involuntary part‑time workers,
may also be discouraging some people from entering the labour force. With the
modest job gains and a strong labour force expansion, the unemployment rate
is forecast to average 6.7 per cent this year, slightly higher than last year.
Over the medium term, the unemployment rate is expected to decline gradually
2019 Budget PDF Na
and reach
Economic 5.2 per cent
Outlook by 2023, as employment growth picks up and the labour
force participation rate falls further. The participation rate’s downward trend is
expected 18:
Chart to continue as the province’s
Participation population
rate to come continues
down to age,with
dipping
anto aging popu
71 per cent by 2023 (Chart 18).
Alberta
Chart 18:Labour Force
Participation Participation
rate to come downRate and
with an Share
aging of Population Aged 6
population
Alberta Labour Force Participation Rate and Share of Population Aged 65 and Over
Labour force participation rate (%) (%)

will continue to fall as the share of Participation Rate* (Left)
75 Share of Population Aged 65 and Over (Right) 16
retired Albertans increases.
15
74
14
73 13
12
72 11
10
71
9
70 8
f-forecast
* The percentage of working age population who are in the labour force.
46 Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board |and

Economic Outlook Finance,
Fiscal f-forecast
Plan 2019 – 23
*The percentage of the working age population who are in the labour force.
EO19_chrt_18.pdf
Housing market to pick up
While Alberta’s housing market has improved from a poor start to 2019, it
remains soft amid elevated inventories and weak consumer sentiment. Housing
starts have rebounded from the lackluster levels seen earlier this year, but
activity has been concentrated in row and apartment starts. Solid net migration
into the province, combined with the market’s ongoing adjustment to tighter
mortgage rules and interest rate increases in 2018, are supporting demand for
multi‑family homes. These are more affordable than single‑detached homes.
Meanwhile, sales of existing homes have risen steadily since February, and
inventories of unsold homes have come down in recent months.
Elevated new home inventories will likely keep a lid on residential construction
activity for the remainder of the year. As a result, housing starts are expected to
average under 25,000 units in 2019, slightly lower than last year’s level. A steady
improvement in inventories and the recent decline in mortgage rates are expected
to boost residential construction next year. Housing starts are expected to increase
to 27,300 units in 2020 (Chart 19). Over the medium term, a gradual drawdown
in housing inventories and a pick‑up in population and earnings growth are
expected to lift housing starts to around 35,000 units by 2023. Housing starts are
Economic Outlook
not expected to return to pre‑recession levels over the forecast period.
Chart 19: Housing starts to rise gradually
Alberta Housing Starts
Chart 19: Housing starts to rise gradually
Alberta Housing Starts by Type
(Units) Housing starts to improve over the

45 Single and Semis Row and Apartments Forecast
medium term as inventories ease
and population growth picks up.
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Haver Analytics and Alberta Treasury
Board and Finance; f-forecast
* Breakdown based on YTD actuals using seasonally adjusted at annual rates data
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Statistics Canada, and Alberta
Treasury Board and Finance; f-forecast
* Breakdown based on YTD actuals using seasonally adjusted at annual rates data
EO19_chrt_19.pdf

Services propping up consumer spending
Consumer spending in the province was weak in the first half of 2019 following
a sharp pullback in the latter half of 2018. Slower activity in the housing market,
coupled with subdued wage growth, is holding back discretionary spending on
items such as vehicles, furniture, and appliances. Ongoing uncertainty about
market access and the global economy is also weighing on sentiment and keeping
consumers cautious. The weakness in goods spending, however, is being partly
offset by spending on services. Services tend to hold up better during times of
weaker economic conditions, which was demonstrated during the 2015‑16
recession (Chart 20). Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending is expected to
grow by 1.5 per cent in 2019, roughly the same as last year’s pace.
Alberta’s expanding population and strengthening labour market are expected
to lead to a rebound in real consumer spending. Spending is forecast to expand
2.7 per cent next year and grow at an average of 3.3 per cent over the remainder
of the forecast period.
Consumer inflation has eased significantly in recent months with falling energy
prices and slower economic activity. Excluding energy, inflation remains above
2 per cent on the back of rising food prices. With softer oil prices and weakness
in house prices, headline consumer inflation is expected to moderate from
2.4 per cent in 2018 to 1.7 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent next year. It is
2019 Budget PDF Na
forecast Outlook
Economic to pick up to around 2 per cent over the medium term.
Chart 20: Weakness concentrated in goods spending

Contribution to Per Cent Change in Alberta Real Household Consumptio
Chart 20: Weakness in 2019 concentrated in goods spending
Contribution to Change in Alberta Real Household Consumption
A growing population and (percentage

strengthening labour market will points) Services Durable Goods
support a pick-up in consumer 5 Semi and Non-Durable Goods Household Consumption
spending over the medium term.
4
-1
-2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Source: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, e-estimate, f-fore
EO19_chrt_20.pdf

Risks to the Economic Outlook
As a small, open, landlocked economy with a sizeable resource extraction
sector, Alberta’s economy is especially sensitive to developments beyond its
borders. Protectionist trade policies are proliferating globally and commodity
markets are under pressure. These present significant risks to Alberta’s economy
and government revenues in the near and medium term. The report from the
MacKinnon Panel on Alberta’s Finances highlighted the need to disclose key
fiscal and economic risks and revenue sensitivities. The scenarios below build
on the recommendations and offer a formalized analysis of Alberta’s exposure to
external factors. They are summarized in Table 1.
Global recession scenario

Most observers, including the IMF and Organization for Economic Co‑operation
and Development, are expecting the global economy to avoid recession and
actually see an acceleration in growth in 2020. However, as global manufacturing
and trade slowdowns persist, the risk of recession is more elevated. This is
reflected in a marked appreciation in safe haven assets and lower bond yields.
Gold has broken through US$1,500 per ounce for the first time in over six years.
Interest rates are broadly contracting, leading yield curves in many advanced
economies to flatten or invert (often a prelude to a near‑term recession).
The global recession scenario assumes global trade and policy issues deteriorate
further, triggering a recession in the first quarter of 2020. The slowdown in
global demand will weigh on WTI prices and the Canadian dollar. Falling
energy prices and demand are expected to reduce investment and exports in
Alberta, while the weaker dollar drives import costs higher. The provincial
labour market and household consumption would feel these effects. Under this
scenario, Alberta’s real GDP contracts 1.5 per cent in 2020 and nominal GDP
declines 7.8 per cent. Resource revenues and income taxes are lower by about
$4.2 billion annually.
As the shock works its way through the global economy, central banks loosen
monetary policy. The Alberta and global economies gradually recover. By 2025
all economies are expected to return to baseline growth. In Alberta, employment
remains below baseline through 2023, but surpasses 2019 levels in 2021.
No market access scenario

The challenges of market access are acutely correlated with Alberta’s economic
prospects. Government curtailment policies have lowered the discount for
Alberta heavy oil compared with global benchmarks, but pipeline bottlenecks
and an increasing reliance on rail are suppressing the oil sector’s expansion.
Relief is expected as Enbridge’s Line 3 in 2021, followed by TMX and Keystone
XL, add over 1.5 million barrels per day of export capacity by 2023. However,
all three pipeline projects are facing regulatory hurdles, and Canada has already

seen two pipeline projects terminated in the last decade ‑ Northern Gateway
and Energy East.
The no market access scenario assumes all three pipeline projects are permanently
cancelled. Without sufficient pipeline access, the light‑heavy differential remains
above US$20/bbl, reflecting higher rail costs. Further, cancelling the TMX
pipeline eliminates access to the U.S. West Coast and Asian markets.
Under this scenario, production is expected to be 120,000 bpd lower between
2019 and 2023, and around 250,000 by 2025, compared with the baseline. This
drags down investment and employment. Real GDP is estimated to be 3 per cent
lower by 2023. Lost resource revenues and income taxes are estimated at over
$5 billion between 2019 and 2023.
High oil prices scenario

Budget 2019 assumes only a modest increase in oil prices over the next four
years to around US$63/bbl by 2022‑23. Geopolitical tensions on the rise,
particularly in the Middle East, could result in supply disruptions that would
put upward pressure on oil prices. In addition, higher demand that could come
with a rapid resolution of trade and policy tensions, could all lead to higher
benchmark oil prices, especially WTI.
The high oil price scenario assumes WTI appreciates to US$77/bbl by 2022‑23,
US$13/bbl higher than the baseline forecast. The light‑heavy differential
widens by just over US$2/bbl as the province sees an uptick in investment
and production. This leads real GDP almost 2.5 per cent and employment
over 1.5 per cent higher by 2023 compared with the base case. The exchange
rate strengthens on rising crude prices and exports, and the Bank of Canada
gradually increases interest rates.

Table 1: Scenario Impacts
Fiscal Year Assumptions 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
WTI (US$/bbl)
Base 57 58 62 63
High 57 68 73 77
Global recession 55 42 55 62
No market access 57 58 62 63
Light-Heavy Differential (US$/bbl)
Base 14.2 18.4 21.0 17.1
High 14.4 19.6 23.4 19.6
Global recession 13.7 16.1 20.9 17.1
No market access 14.2 19.4 24.5 21.7
Exchange Rate (US¢/Cdn$)
Base 75 76 77 78
High 76 80 81 83
Global recession 75 71 74 77
No market access 75 76 76 76
Income Tax and Resource Revenue ($B)
Base 22.7 22.6 25.2 28.3
Variance from base
High 0.4 3.0 3.9 5.8
Global recession -0.7 -5.5 -6.1 -4.5
No market access 0.0 -0.5 -2.0 -3.0
Calendar Year Assumptions 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Real GDP (% change)
Base 0.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0
High 0.6 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.5
Global recession 0.6 -1.5 2.5 4.3 3.8
No market access 0.6 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.7
Nominal GDP (% change)
Base 3.5 2.5 5.9 5.8 6.3
High 3.5 7.0 6.9 7.8 7.5
Global recession 3.5 -7.8 6.7 12.6 8.2
No market access 3.5 2.5 2.8 5.2 3.2
Employment (thousands)
Base 2,350 2,390 2,440 2,490 2,550
High 2,350 2,400 2,460 2,530 2,590
Global recession 2,350 2,340 2,360 2,450 2,530
No market access 2,350 2,390 2,430 2,460 2,490

BLANK PAGE
52
Economic Outlook
Annex
53
Benchmarking Tables
Oil Price Benchmark

West Texas Intermediate (US$/bbl)
Organization 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
National Forecasting Agencies
Conference Board of Canada (Aug/19) 58.04 61.41 63.66 65.91 68.16
Stokes Economics (Aug/19) 57.50 60.76 63.13 67.24 72.56
Banks and Investment Dealers
CIBC World Markets (08 Apr/19) 57.00 60.50 n/a n/a n/a
Credit Suisse (Aug/19) 59.20 57.00 60.00 60.00 n/a
Goldman Sachs (Aug/19) 58.85 55.50 n/a n/a n/a
Laurentian Bank (May/19) 64.00 67.00 n/a n/a n/a
National Bank (July/19) 63.00 58.00 n/a n/a n/a
RBC Capital Markets (Aug/19) 60.20 61.76 70.00 70.00 70.00
Scotiabank (12 July/19) 56.00 55.00 n/a n/a n/a
Toronto Dominion Bank (June/19) 58.00 61.25 n/a n/a n/a
Industry Analysts
U.S. Energy Information Administration (06 Aug/19) 57.87 59.50 n/a n/a n/a
GLJ Petroleum Consultants (01 July/19) 57.94 62.50 65.00 67.50 70.00
Sproule Associates Limited (31 July/19) 59.71 67.00 70.00 71.40 72.83
Confidential Forecasts Provided to Alberta Energya
Average 58.00 61.00 64.00 66.00 68.00
High 64.00 67.00 70.00 74.46 78.36
Low 55.00 53.09 58.75 60.00 59.38
Average of All Private Forecasts 59.00 61.00 65.00 66.00 69.00
Government of Alberta (calendar year) 57.00 57.00 62.00 63.00 64.00
Includes forecasts finalized on or before 27 August, 2019.

a The Government of Alberta surveys, on a confidential basis, private sector forecasts from PIRA, the Bank of Montreal, IHS Markit, Stratas
Advisors, and Wood Mackenzie. The annual figures presented here are an average of the forecast prices from these sources. High/Low
forecasts may represent one of the confidential forecasts. The Government of Alberta forecast also includes the futures price in 2019 and
2020 to included current market sentiment in its forecast, with a higher weighting in 2019. The private sector average, consultant average
and Government of Alberta forecasts have been rounded to the nearest dollar.
How Oil Price Forecasters Fared in Budget 2018

West Texas Intermediate (US$/bbl)
Organization (#) How did they do in Budget 2018?
Both the Government of Alberta and National Forecasting Agencies (3) 57.77
the private sector underestimated Banks and Investment Dealers (8) 59.66
the WTI oil price for 2018, by 6.2% Industry Analysts (3) 57.67
and 9.8% respectively. Confidential Forecasts (5) 61.00
Average 59.00
Government of Alberta (calendar year) 61.00
2018 Actual 64.77
Sources: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance and Alberta Energy

Natural Gas Price Benchmark
Henry Hub (US$/MMBtu)a
Organization 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Banks and Investment Dealers
Credit Suisse (Aug/19) 2.65 2.50 2.50 2.50 n/a
Goldman Sachs (Aug/19) 2.81 2.75 n/a n/a n/a
Industry Analysts
U.S. Energy Information Administration (06 Aug/19) 2.55 2.75 n/a n/a n/a
GLJ Petroleum Consultants (01 July/19) 2.61 2.80 2.95 3.10 3.20
Confidential Forecasts Provided to Alberta Energyb
Average 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00
High 3.23 3.08 3.26 3.50 3.95
Low 2.46 2.14 2.37 2.37 2.52
a The natural gas price at Henry Hub Louisiana (in US$/MMBtu) is the U.S. benchmark while the AECO natural gas price (in CAD$/GJ) is the
Western Canada benchmark. While both benchmarks are widely used in North America, the difference between Henry Hub and AECO prices
reflects transportation costs and regional supply/demand impacts, as well as exchange rate and unit conversion. The Alberta Reference
Price (used in natural gas royalty calculations) represents the average field price of all Alberta gas sales which normally follows the Western
Canada regional benchmark.
b The Government of Alberta also surveys, on a confidential basis, private sector forecasts from Petral, Sproule, IHS Markit, PIRA, Wood
McKenzie, EIA, the Bank of Montreal, Scotiabank, Stratas Advisors, and NYMEX. The annual figures presented here are the average
forecast prices from these sources. High/Low forecasts may represent one of the confidential forecasts. The private sector average,
consultant average and Government of Alberta forecasts have been rounded to the nearest ten cents.
How Natural Gas Price Forecasters Did in Budget 2018

Henry Hub (US$/MMBtu)
Organization (#) How did they do in Budget 2018?
National Forecasting Agencies (3) 3.13
Both the Government of
Banks and Investment Dealers (7) 2.98 Alberta and the private sector
Industry Analysts (3) 3.10 underestimated natural gas prices
Confidential Forecasts (10) 3.00 in 2018 by 2.3%.
Average 3.00
Government of Alberta (calendar year) 3.00
2018 Actual 3.07
Sources: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance and Alberta Energy

Light‑Heavy Oil Price Differential Benchmark
WTI‑WCS Price Differential (US$/bbl)
Organization 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Banks and Industry Analysts
GLJ Petroleum Csonsultants (01 July/19) 13.37 18.00 17.00 16.00 16.00
a
Confidential Forecasts Provided to Alberta Energy
Average 13.80 21.00 19.40 15.90 15.30
High 15.93 24.48 23.53 23.60 22.52
Low 11.73 13.52 12.46 12.89 12.69
a The Government of Alberta also surveys, on a confidential basis, private sector forecasts from IHS Markit, PIRA, Wood MacKenzie,
Stratas Advisors, and the Bank of Montreal. The annual figures presented here are the average forecast prices from these sources. High/
Low forecasts may represent one of the confidential forecasts. The private sector average, consultant average and Government of Alberta
forecasts have been rounded to the nearest ten cents.
Canadian Long‑Term Interest Rate Benchmark

10‑Year Government of Canada Bonds (%)
Organization 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Banks
BMO Capital Markets (23 Aug/19) 1.55 1.55 n/a n/a n/a
CIBC World Markets (18 July/19) 1.72 1.69 n/a n/a n/a
Laurentian Bank (10 May/19) 1.85 2.51 n/a n/a n/a
RBC Royal Bank (12 July/19) 1.70 1.80 n/a n/a n/a
Scotiabank (16 Aug/19) 1.38 1.43 n/a n/a n/a
High 1.90 2.64 3.13 3.13 3.43
Low 1.38 1.43 2.86 3.07 3.13

United States / Canada Exchange Rate Benchmark
(US¢/Cdn$)
Organization 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Banks
CIBC World Markets (29 July/19) 75.8 75.0 n/a n/a n/a
Laurentian Bank (10 May/19) 76.5 79.8 n/a n/a n/a
RBC Royal Bank (12 July/19) 77.5 75.2 n/a n/a n/a
Scotiabank (16 Aug/19) 75.8 77.8 n/a n/a n/a
Other
Bloomberg Forward Curve (27 Aug/19) 75.3 75.4 75.3 75.2 75.1
High 77.5 79.8 78.4 78.6 79.1
Low 75.3 74.6 75.3 75.2 75.1
Alberta Real Gross Domestic Product Benchmark

(% change)
Organization 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Conference Board of Canada (Aug/19) ‑0.8 2.0 3.2 2.1 2.1
Banks
Laurentian Bank (Feb/19) 2.0 2.4 n/a n/a n/a
RBC Royal Bank (June/19) 0.6 2.4 n/a n/a n/a
High 2.0 2.5 3.2 2.7 2.1
Low ‑0.8 1.4 2.4 2.1 2.1

Alberta Nominal Gross Domestic Product Benchmark
(% change)
Organization 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Banks
High 4.5 5.5 5.3 5.4 7.2
Low 0.2 4.1 4.9 4.1 4.1
Alberta Primary Household Income Benchmark

(% change)
Organization 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
High 3.2 4.3 5.1 5.4 4.7
Low 2.3 2.9 3.9 5.0 4.6
Alberta Net Corporate Operating Surplus Benchmark

(% change)
Organization 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Conference Board of Canada (Aug/19) ‑9.7 6.4 12.3 1.1 1.3
Stokes Economics (Aug/19) ‑7.3 23.3 13.7 11.2 24.3
High ‑7.3 23.3 13.7 11.2 24.3
Low ‑9.7 6.4 12.3 1.1 1.3
Average of All Private Forecasts ‑8.5 14.8 13.0 6.2 12.8
Government of Alberta (calendar year) 8.3 ‑5.1 17.1 14 15.4

Alberta Employment Benchmark
(% change)
Organization 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Banks
High 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.2 1.8
Low 0.4 0.7 1.8 2.1 1.6
Alberta Unemployment Rate Benchmark

(%)
Organization 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Banks
High 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.3 6.2
Low 6.3 6.0 6.3 5.8 5.7

Alberta Housing Starts Benchmark
(thousands)
Organization 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Banks
CIBC World Markets (15 Jan/19) 31.0 30.0 n/a n/a n/a
High 31.0 30.0 32.9 33.0 33.2
Low 23.4 25.0 27.8 30.2 31.4

BUDGET 2019
Fiscal Plan
Revenue
61
Table of Contents
Revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Revenue Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Non-Renewable Resource Revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Tax Revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Federal Transfers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Investment Income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Other Revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
62 Revenue | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Revenue
Revenue Outlook
Total revenue is estimated to be $50 billion in 2019-20, $392 million higher Total revenue reaches $57.5 billion
than in 2018-19. Revenue is forecast to stay relatively stable in 2020-21 and by 2022-23, mainly from growth
then grow by an average of about 7 per cent over the next two years, reaching in bitumen royalties and income
$57.5 billion in 2022-23, driven mainly by income taxes and bitumen royalties. taxes.
The forecast assumes gradual strengthening of Alberta’s economy over the next
year, and then accelerated growth as pipelines become operational, oil sands
production growth continues, business investment, oil prices and exports
increase, and the light-heavy oil price differential narrows after first widening
in 2020-21. The uptick in investment, encouraged by improving market
access, lower corporate taxes and elimination of the carbon tax, and related to
several large petrochemical and other projects, also helps boost job creation and
household income. Alberta’s real GDP is estimated to expand by 0.6 per cent in
2019, 2.7 per cent in 2020 and stabilize at 3 per cent in both 2022 and 2023.
The short-term weakness in 2019 is mainly related to market access, influenced
by global developments, including trade disputes and Brexit, resulting slower
global economic growth, and in turn a drop in oil prices, all of which hit Alberta
harder as a resource-based economy. The 2019‑20 revenue forecast includes a
short-term increase to bitumen royalties as curtailment has helped narrow the
light-heavy oil price differential. This, coupled with the lower U.S.‑Canadian
dollar exchange rate, more than offset the lower oil prices this year.
This forecast reflects the implications of a number of policy changes, including:
• Removing the carbon tax, which accounted for $1.3 billion in 2018-19.
• Making Alberta the best place to do business through the Job Creation Tax
Corporate income tax rate will
Cut. The general corporate income tax (CIT) rate dropped from 12 per cent be down to 8 per cent by 2022.
to 11 per cent on July 1, 2019, and will decrease three more times by a
single percentage point on January 1 in each of the next three years till it
me: B19-FP_Rev_tb02_tr.pdf Budget 2019
reaches 8 per cent in 2022. Alberta’s corporate tax advantage was abandoned Revenue section
in 2015, when the general rate was hiked from 10 to 12 per cent, while the
economy entered a deep recession and jobs were being lost. Instead,
lowering the rate will add momentum to economic growth through higher
Total Revenue
Total Revenue
Personal income tax 11,874 11,990 12,619 13,451 14,335
Corporate income tax 4,871 4,177 4,614 5,031 5,388
Other tax revenue 6,833 5,766 5,803 5,991 6,207
Resource revenue – other 2,215 1,845 1,894 2,268 2,460
Federal transfers 8,013 9,200 8,883 9,426 9,746
Investment income 2,349 2,585 2,697 2,893 3,009
Net income from business enterprises 2,585 2,417 2,558 2,495 2,580
Premiums, fees and licences 3,911 3,872 4,047 4,131 4,241
Other revenue 3,759 3,482 3,472 3,473 3,446
Total Revenue 49,624 50,016 50,079 53,629 57,543
Revenue | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 63

investment and employment, and CIT revenue is expected to grow by an
average of almost 9 per cent per year between 2019‑20 and 2022-23.
• Enhancements to capital cost allowances will also be in place for the whole
year for the first time in 2019-20.
• Increasing the tobacco tax by $5 per carton effective October 25, 2019,
Modernizing Alberta’s revenue
and application of the tourism levy to short-term rentals offered on on-line
mix by applying tourism levy to
on-line rental activities. marketplaces in 2020.
• Changing the calculation of compliance payments from large industrial
emitters into the Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction Fund
(TIER), outlined in its regulations, replacing the Climate Change and
Emissions Management Fund and its regulatory regime on January 1, 2020.
• Lifting the freeze on post-secondary tuition to reduce reliance on
government grants and encourage more self-supporting alternative
approaches to funding post-secondary programs, as recommended by the
MacKinnon Panel.
• Broadening the revenue mix, through greater adoption of a “user- or
beneficiary-pay” approach in some non-core agriculture insurance program
enhancements and benefits, motor vehicle, land titles and several other fees,
as well as through elevating the proportion of fine revenue retained by the
province.
• Eliminating the capital investment, investor, and tuition and education tax
credits, to return to a broad-based, low-rate tax policy approach.
• Pausing the indexation of personal income tax brackets and credits to
Alberta inflation.
Pdf name: B19-FP_Rev_tb02_rctq.pdf Budget 20
Relative to the last official forecast in the 2018-19 Third Quarter Fiscal Update Revenue sec
and Economic Statement published in February 2019, revenue has decreased by
$21.5 billion over the four years, from policy changes and due to updates to oil
prices and the global and Alberta economic outlooks.
Revenue comparison to Q3 forecast
Revenue Comparison to 2018-19 Third Quarter Forecast
(billions of dollars) 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Estimate Target Target Target
Current forecast 50.0 50.1 53.6 57.5
2018-19 Third Quarter forecast 51.6 56.5 61.1 63.5
Difference (1.6) (6.4) (7.5) (6.0)
Policy Adjustments:
Job Creation Tax Cut leaves
Crude-by-rail commercial revenue (1.0) (3.0) (3.3) (1.4)
more resources in the hands of
Carbon tax elimination (1.2) (1.4) (1.5) (1.5)
employers and investors, spurring
Job Creation Tax Cut (0.1) (0.5) (0.8) (1.0)
economic activity. TIER regime - large emitters - (0.1) (0.2) (0.4)
Total policy adjustments (2.3) (5.0) (5.8) (4.3)
Forecast Adjustments:
Investment income (0.6) (0.7) (0.5) (0.4)
Tax revenue (0.1) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4)
Resource revenue 1.2 (0.1) (0.6) (0.8)
Other revenue 0.1 (0.4) (0.3) (0.1)
Total forecast adjustments 0.7 (1.4) (1.7) (1.7)
Total Adjustments (1.6) (6.4) (7.5) (6.0)

• Under the crude-by-rail venture, $8.7 billion in revenue from selling barrels
of oil in various North American locations was included in the forecast.
Crude-by-rail exposed Albertans to substantial risk, as its profitability was
uncertain. More information is provided in the Overview on page 16.
• Carbon tax elimination leaves $5.6 billion in the economy instead of Prior revenue forecast was
churning it through the government bureaucracy. enlarged by the speculative
crude‑by-rail venture and
• A much less aggressive investment income forecast, one not based on a aggressive investment income
five‑year average of above-normal returns, lowers revenue by $2.2 billion. assumptions.
• The Job Creation Tax Cut results in a net $2.4 billion revenue reduction
over four years, with more being left in the hands of businesses, investors
and employers, creating jobs and adding momentum to economic growth.
• The shift to the TIER regime for large emitters reduces government’s take by
$0.7 billion.
• Forecast changes, mainly to global and Alberta economic growth, oil prices,
as well as due to the Line 3 pipeline delay, decrease tax and resource revenue
by $1.3 billion, although bitumen royalties are $1.5 billion higher in
me: B19-FP_REV_chrt02.pdf Budget 2019
2019‑20, primarily due to the narrower light-heavy oil price differential. Revenue section
• Finally, various other changes lowered forecast revenue by $0.7 billion over
the four year period.
Oil and
Prices of Natural Gas Prices
Oil and Natural Gas, 1999-00 to 2022-23
WTI (US$/barrel) – left axis WCS (US$/barrel) – left axis

ARP (CDN$/GJ) – right axis
$110 $9
$90
$7
$70
$5
$50
$3
$30
$10 $1
The 2014 oil price drop threw Alberta’s economy into recession for both
2015 and 2016, with real gross domestic product contracting by 3.7 per
cent and 4.2 per cent respectively. The economy began recovering in 2017,
expanding by 4.4 per cent. Growth continued in 2018, aided by increasing
oil prices, conventional investment, strong manufacturing activity, improving
employment and household metrics, and higher oil sands production and
exports. However, global oil prices weakened in the fall of 2018, due mainly to
weakening demand from various geopolitical and trade issues, and to surging
U.S. supply growth. Further, Alberta’s oil prices became severely discounted

relative to the falling global benchmarks, due to insufficient market access.
Alberta’s economic growth fell to an estimated 2.2 per cent in 2018.
This weakness has continued in 2019, with growth estimated at only 0.6 per
cent. The forecast improves in 2020, as energy and non-energy investment
recovers supported by the tax reductions and anticipation of greater market
access. Broad-based growth across all sectors is expected as pipelines come
on-line, now expected starting in 2021, as oil sands production escalates,
and with investment in new petrochemical projects boosting activity. These
lead to greater exports, manufacturing activity, consumer spending, housing
construction, and population and job growth. Government revenue growth
begins to accelerate as well. In 2021-22, with new and expanded pipelines,
bitumen royalties jump 28 per cent, and then with full market access in
2022‑23, they increase another 37 per cent.
Non-Renewable Resource Revenue

Non-renewable resource revenue in 2019-20 accounts for 13 per cent of
Resource revenue of $6.5 billion
total revenue, and its share is expected to grow to 15 per cent by 2022‑23.
for 2019-20, and grows to
$8.6 billion by 2022-23. Resource revenue is estimated at $6.5 billion for fiscal year 2019-20,
$1.1 billion higher than in 2018‑19, due almost entirely to increased bitumen
royalties from the narrower differential and lower exchange rate, which more
than offset current weakness in global oil prices. The West Texas Intermediate
(WTI) oil price forecast of US$57 per barrel (/bbl) for 2019-20 is US$6 lower
than the 2018-19 actual of US$62.77. Resource revenue is projected to increase
to $8.6 billion by fiscal year 2022-23, mainly driven by accelerating bitumen
royalties from slowly increasing production, but most importantly from higher
oil prices as pipeline completions are expected to provide full market access
towards the end of 2022.
The WTI oil price averaged almost US$93/bbl in the four fiscal years 2010‑11
to 2013-14, but then fell 70 per cent, from US$105/bbl in June 2014 to
approximately US$30 in February 2016. The price collapse arose from global
supply growth exceeding demand growth, mainly from North American growth
and previously-disrupted OPEC production recovering.
In late 2016, OPEC members and several non-OPEC producers agreed to
reduce output by 1.8 million barrels per day, starting in 2017, which supported
oil prices. However, elevated prices fueled increased U.S. production and raised
concerns about the pace of global demand-supply rebalancing, as inventories
remained high. This softened prices in mid-2017. The OPEC-led agreement
was extended until the end of 2018, which, together with continued demand
growth, supply disruptions from geopolitical events, and reduced global
inventories, contributed to boost oil prices. This strength continued through
most of 2018. Even though the OPEC / non-OPEC agreement was again
extended for 2019, oil prices fell to a sixteen month low in December 2018,
due to rising supplies and concerns about global growth, in light of trade and
other geopolitical issues.
The oil price weakness continued through 2019 as the focus shifted from
oversupply to demand weakness. Oil demand growth has been affected by

global economic growth risks, including Chinese economic prospects, Brexit,
and other trade and political issues. This is despite the OPEC-led production
restraint and other supply issues in several oil-producing areas, including
Venezuela, Iran and the Middle East.
The Budget 2019 forecast is based on WTI oil prices averaging US$57/bbl
in 2019-20, US$58 in 2020-21, US$62 in 2021-22 and US$63 in 2022-23.
Other factors affecting oil royalties are the light-heavy price differential, the
U.S.‑Canadian dollar exchange rate, production, oil sands project status and
producer costs:
• The Western Canadian Select price (WCS), a benchmark price for heavy
oil (blended bitumen), is determined by the WTI U.S. dollar price less a
“light-heavy differential.” The differential is linked to costs of transporting
Alberta production to Gulf Coast refineries or coastal ports for export,
and to the different properties of heavy oil relative to light sweet crude.
Sufficient pipeline capacity lowers costs and the differential, increasing
Light-heavy oil price differential
prices for Alberta producers; insufficient capacity means moving product
narrowed to estimated US$14.20
by rail, increasing costs and the differential, lowering WCS prices. With in 2019-20 with curtailment, then
Alberta production ramping up, pipeline access has become insufficient. expected to widen for two years
The differential was US$23.31 in 2018-19, and is forecast to average before narrowing to US$17.10 in
US$14.20/bbl in 2019-20 with curtailment reducing storage inventories. 2022-23 with full market access.
With ongoing production growth, the January 2020 International Maritime
Organisation bunker fuel sulphur specification change, and curtailment
set to end after 2020, the differential is expected to climb to US$18.40 in
2020-21 and then to US$21 in 2021-22, before narrowing to US$17.10 in
2022-23 as full market access is achieved. The Enbridge Line 3 replacement
pipeline is anticipated to start operations early in 2021, while the Trans
Mountain expansion and TransCanada Keystone XL pipelines are expected
by the end of 2022 and in early 2023 respectively.
• A lower U.S.-Canadian dollar exchange rate supports royalty revenue.
The bitumen royalty rate is based on the WTI price expressed in Canadian
dollars, so the rate is higher with a lower Canadian dollar. A lower dollar
also increases oil prices when they are converted from U.S. into Canadian
dollars, elevating producers’ revenue in Canadian dollars. The exchange
rate forecast has decreased in the short term, to 75 US¢/Cdn$ for 2019-20,
before it gradually increases, reaching 78 US¢/Cdn$ by 2022-23.
• Bitumen production continues to grow. It is estimated to increase
17.5 per cent between 2018-19 and 2022-23 as projects and expansions Bitumen production estimated to
increase 17.5 per cent between
are completed and output ramps up. Conventional production remains
2019-20 and 2022-23.
relatively flat.
• Oil sands royalties change when projects reach post-payout status (total
project revenue exceeds total capital and operating costs). Prior to payout,
royalties are 1–9 per cent of gross revenue, while after payout, they are the
greater of 1–9 per cent of gross revenue or 25– 40 per cent of net revenue.
• Several years of low oil prices incented industry to seek efficiencies, improve
productivity and reduce costs. Since costs are part of royalty calculations,
these support royalty revenue.

Bitumen royalties are estimated at $4.7 billion in 2019-20, $1.5 billion, or
46 per cent higher than in 2018-19, due primarily to the narrower light‑heavy
differential, which is forecast to be US$9 lower, and an almost one cent
drop in the U.S.-Canadian dollar exchange rate, partly offset by the US$6
decrease in the WTI oil price. Royalties are forecast $1.2 billion lower in
2020-21, at $3.5 billion. This is due to the differential expanding with an end
to curtailment, the IMO sulphur regulations starting in January 2020, and
higher production that incents a higher cost of transportation by rail. Bitumen
royalties recover in the following two years, driven by a shrinking differential as
pipeline access finally arrives, increasing global oil prices and higher production,
partly offset by a rising exchange rate.
The government will supply bitumen to the North West Redwater Sturgeon
Refinery. The refinery will upgrade bitumen into higher-valued products such
as ultra-low sulphur diesel. The Province will receive a portion of the revenue
from the sale of the upgraded product, but is also responsible for paying
monthly cost of service tolls for the 30-year term of the contract.
Pdf name: B19-FP_REV_tb05_oa.pdf Budget 2
Conventional oil royalties are estimated at $1.2 billion in 2019-20, and are Revenue sec
expected to reach $1.3 billion by 2022-23. Revenue is mainly boosted by the

gradually-increasing WTI oil price.
Oil Assumptions
Oil Assumptions
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Revenue ($ millions)
Bitumen royalty 3,214 4,682 3,492 4,470 6,131
Crude oil royalty 1,149 1,163 1,034 1,153 1,272
Prices
West Texas Intermediate (US$/bbl) 62.77 57 58 62 63
WCS @ Hardisty (Cdn$/bbl) 51.65 56.60 52.10 54.00 59.70
Differential (US$/bbl) (23.31) (14.20) (18.40) (21.00) (17.10)
Production (thousands of barrels / day)
Conventional 489 490 501 509 511
Raw bitumen 3,008 3,108 3,266 3,424 3,534
Exchange rate
(US¢/Cdn$) 76.3 75 76 77 78
Natural gas and by-product royalties are estimated at $362 million in

2019-20, $174 million, or 32.5 per cent lower than in 2018-19, due primarily
to lower production, with the Alberta Reference Price (ARP) relatively flat.
Revenue increases by an average of 29 per cent per year over the next two
years, and is forecast at $777 million in 2022-23. Since prices for natural gas
by-products, such as propane, butane and pentanes plus, follow oil prices,
the uplift in oil prices will continue to encourage production to maximize
higher‑valued natural gas liquids extraction.
The immediate outlook for natural gas prices continues to be mixed, with
abundant natural gas supplies keeping prices low. U.S. natural gas production is
expected to more than keep pace with demand growth from U.S. natural gas
exports, industrial demand and retirement of coal-fired electricity plants over

me: B19-FP_REV_tb06_ngabpa.pdf Budget 2019
Revenue section
the medium term. However, forecast Alberta natural gas prices are buoyed by
increasing demand from expanding oil sands operations, petrochemical and
electricity-generation developments, as well as B.C.’s new LNG terminal.
Natural Gas and By-product Assumptions
Natural Gas Assumptions
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Revenue ($ millions) 536 362 487 700 777
Alberta Reference Price (Cdn$/GJ) 1.34 1.30 1.60 1.90 2.00
Production (billions of cubic feet) 4,158 4,108 4,114 4,116 4,065
Bonuses and sales of Crown land leases revenue in 2019-20 is estimated

me: B19-FP_REV_tb07_nrrr.pdf Budget 2019
at $164 million, a drop of $196 million from 2018-19, as companies restrain Revenue section
investment to recover from several difficult years, and from waiting for more
concrete resolution of market access issues. Revenue is then expected to ramp
up with pipeline access.
Non-renewable resource revenue
Bitumen royalty 3,214 4,682 3,492 4,470 6,131
Natural gas & by-products royalty 536 362 487 700 777
Bonuses & sales of Crown leases 360 164 239 287 291
Rentals and fees / coal royalty 170 156 134 128 120
Total Resource Revenue 5,429 6,527 5,386 6,738 8,591
Tax Revenue
Tax revenue is forecast at $21.9 billion in 2019-20, 44 per cent of total Tax revenue lower in 2019-20
revenue. This is $1.6 billion, or 7 per cent lower than in 2018-19, with a mainly from elimination of
$198 million increase in personal income and other tax revenue offset by carbon tax.
a $694 million decrease in reported corporate income tax revenue and a
$1,149 million reduction due to the elimination of the carbon tax on May 30,
2019. Tax revenue is forecast to increase by an average of 5.7 per cent for the
next three years, reaching $25.9 billion and 45 per cent of total revenue by
2022-23. This mainly reflects strong growth in personal and corporate income
taxes as revenue recovers from weakness in 2019-20. Of the $4 billion increase
in tax revenue between 2019-20 and 2022-23, $3.6 billion, or almost 90 per
cent, is from income taxes.
Personal income tax (PIT) revenue is estimated at $12 billion in 2019‑20,
an increase of only $116 million, or 1 per cent from 2018-19. Revenue in
2018-19 was $487 million higher than estimated in Budget 2018 after 2017
assessment data, not received until late summer 2018, proved to be higher than
expected. The increase included a prior-years’ adjustment of $432 million,
reflecting underreported revenue in 2016-17 and 2017-18 annual reports. The
increased revenue in 2017 also elevates the base used to forecast PIT revenue
for 2018 and future years.
Share\PublnsProd\CorpFin\OBM.PUBLNS-2019-20\B19_Fiscal-Plan_vol\03_REVenue_B19\source-docs\ 9/27/2019
P_REVenue_tables OCTOBER.xlsx 9:00 PM
PIT revenue is forecast to increase by $2.3 billion, or an average of 6.1 per cent
per year between 2019‑20 and 2022-23, to $14.3 billion, from the elevated
base and improving employment and household income growth. This forecast
includes the impact of pausing indexation of tax brackets and credits, and
elimination of the tuition and education tax credits.
Corporate income tax (CIT) is forecast at $4.2 billion in 2019-20, a decrease
of $694 million or over 14 per cent from 2018-19, primarily as 2018-19
revenue was elevated by $633 million from year-end accounting adjustments.
This included reversals of large refund and payment in abeyance liabilities
booked in prior years ($385 million), and an increase in accounts receivable
related to several large tax assessments in 2018-19 CIT ($248 million).
The CIT forecast includes the impact of the rate reduction from 12 per cent
to 11 per cent in 2019-20, and then annual reductions on January 1, 2020,
2021 and 2022, until the rate reaches 8 per cent. This represents $200 million
in tax relief in 2019-20, growing to $2.1 billion by 2022-23. The resulting
economic impact expands the corporate tax base and boosts other revenue,
primarily personal income tax. This results in revenue being reduced by only
a net $100 million in 2019-20 and $1 billion in 2022-23, as presented in the
Corporate income tax
rate reduction increases
table on page 64. The CIT forecast also includes the impact of a full-year of
competitiveness and attracts enhancements to capital cost allowances in 2019-20, reducing revenue by an
investment, as recommended estimated $370 million. These changes improve competitiveness and attract
by MacKinnon Panel. investment by reducing the cost of doing business in Alberta, as suggested by
the MacKinnon Panel. The forecast also reflects the elimination of the Alberta
Investor and Capital Investment tax credits, increasing revenue $39 million
in 2020-21 and 2021-22, as Alberta moves back to broad-based, low-rate
tax policy. Tax credits reported in expense, including a portion of the Alberta
Investor credit, and the Scientific Research and Experimental Development
credit and Interactive Digital Media credit, are also being eliminated.
Based on improving oil prices, expanding oil production, rising economic
activity and cost containment, corporate income tax revenue increases
$1.2 billion between 2019-20 and 2022-23, an average of almost 9 per cent per
year, to $5.4 billion.
Education property tax revenue is forecast at $2.5 billion in 2019-20, an
increase of $14 million from 2018-19, based on freezing the mill rates for the
2019 requisition, and then deducting an estimated $30 million from revenue
for two credit programs, the Provincial Education Requisition Program
(PERC) and the Shallow Gas Tax Relief Initiative (SGTRI). PERC provides
an equivalent education tax credit for municipalities who are unable to collect
education property tax on delinquent oil and gas properties. SGTRI provides a
35 per cent property tax reduction to qualifying shallow gas well and pipeline
properties, and reimburses municipalities with an equivalent tax credit for the
tax reduction.
The forecast for future years is based on increasing the requisition by
population growth and inflation, though the government will revisit the policy
for determining the requisition annually as part of the budget process. The
residential/farm mill rate remains at $2.56 per $1,000 of equalized assessment

for 2019, and the non-residential rate remains at $3.76 per $1,000 of equalized
assessment for 2019.
Between 2008 and 2018, Alberta municipal property tax revenue almost
Property tax take from
doubled - from $3.8 billion to $7.4 billion – while provincial education
municipalities has doubled since
property tax revenue increased from $1.6 billion to $2.4 billion (see pages 2008, while provincial revenue has
151–152 of the Tax Plan). The government believes that lowering overall taxes increased by 50 per cent.
is a priority, given current fiscal, economic and employment conditions, and is
exercising significant restraint to leave more in the hands of taxpayers and job
creators. Municipal spending levels directly impact the overall tax burden, and
restraint is encouraged.
Other tax revenue is forecast at $3.3 billion in 2019-20, $1.1 billion lower
than in 2018-19, due to elimination of the carbon tax on May 30, 2019. The
tax is estimated to have captured $175 million from Alberta taxpayers in the
two months it remained in effect in 2019-20.
Other tax revenue, omitting the $175 million carbon tax revenue in 2019-20,
is anticipated to grow $304 million to $3.4 billion, an average of 3.1 per cent
per year between 2019-20 and 2022-23, with two-thirds of the increase from
insurance taxes, due to anticipated premium growth, and one-third from fuel
taxes. The forecast includes the impact of raising the tobacco tax by $5 per
carton, increasing revenue by $14 million in 2019-20 and by $45 million by
2022-23, though tobacco tax revenue actually declines by $9 million over that
period from reduced consumption. It also includes about a $5 million increase
per year in the tourism levy beginning in 2020-21, as it is applied to short-term
rentals offered on on-line marketplaces. Other taxes reflect Alberta’s cannabis
tax, forecast at $30 million in 2018-19, $70 million in 2019-20 and rising to
$84 million by 2022-23.
me: B19-FP_REV_tb10_tr.pdf Budget 2019
The government intends to implement a tax on vaping products, and will Revenue section
provide details as part of Budget 2020. No revenue implications from this are
included in the Budget 2019 forecast.
TaxRevenue
Tax Revenue
(millions ofdollars)
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Education property tax 2,441 2,455 2,567 2,661 2,767
Carbon tax 1,324 175 - - -
Other taxes 3,068 3,136 3,236 3,330 3,440
Total 23,578 21,933 23,036 24,473 25,930

Federal Transfers
Federal transfers are forecast at $9.2 billion in 2019-20, about 18 per cent of
total revenue. This is an increase of $1.2 billion, or 15 per cent from 2018‑19,
primarily from regular growth in major transfers for health care and social
programs, increased support under the new Investing in Canada Infrastructure
Plan, a one-time $230 million top-up to the Gas Tax Fund, and a $252 million
fiscal stabilization payment related to the 2016-17 revenue decline.
The Canada Social Transfer (CST) and Canada Health Transfer (CHT) grow
in line with federal annual escalators and changes to Alberta’s share of the
national population. For CST, the escalator is 3 per cent, while for CHT, it is
based on the higher of the three-year average of national nominal GDP growth,
or 3 per cent. For 2019-20, the CHT escalator is estimated at 4.2 per cent.
In November 2018, Statistics Canada revised provincial population numbers,
which lowered Alberta’s entitlement slightly going forward.
The forecast includes funding for a number of specific programs. The renewed
labour market agreements increase by $64 million between 2018-19 and
2022-23. The Early Learning and Child Care Agreement begun in 2017-18
provides $46 million per year. The $1.3 billion ten-year home care and mental
health care agreement provides $130 million in 2019-20 and then $469 million
over the next three years, 2020-21 to 2022-23. The federal government is
providing $24 million by 2022-23 to combat opioids, and funding for drug
impaired driving training, the Guns and Gangs initiative and Legal Aid.
Federal support for infrastructure was increased with two new programs for
Investing in Canada Infrastructure
Plan provides $3.4 billion to
public transit and clean water and wastewater several years ago, with remaining
Alberta, with $3 billion funding expected in 2020-21. The new Investing in Canada Infrastructure
allocated to LRT projects Plan allocated $3.4 billion to Alberta, with $6 million spent in 2018-19, and
in Edmonton and Calgary. $163 million budgeted in 2019-20, $221 million in 2020-21, $483 million
in 2021-22 and $520 million in 2022-23. Another $1.7 billion is budgeted
between 2023-24 and 2027-28. Decisions on the remaining $0.3 billion are
still being determined.
Federal transfers
Pdf name: B19-FP_Rev_tb11_tfgoc.pdf are forecast to grow by an average of 2 per cent between Budget 20
2019-20 and 2022-23, reaching $9.7 billion, with expected increases in CHT, Revenue sect
CST and other transfers enhanced by the programs noted above, but slightly
offset by the one-time transfers in 2019-20 for the Gas Tax Fund and fiscal
stabilization.
Transfers from Government of Canada
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Canada Health Transfer 4,461 4,697 4,891 5,090 5,320
Canada Social Transfer 1,637 1,705 1,766 1,831 1,901
Transfers to SUCH sector 522 568 580 595 607
Agriculture support programs 272 271 267 268 268
Infrastructure support 397 912 586 813 867
Labour market agreements 255 276 299 314 314
Other transfers 469 771 494 515 469
Total 8,013 9,200 8,883 9,426 9,746

Investment Income
Investment income is forecast at $2.6 billion in 2019-20, a $236 million or 10
per cent increase from 2018-19, mainly due to weaker returns for the Heritage Investment income estimated to
increase in 2019-20, as 2018-19
and endowment funds in 2018-19, as global equity markets struggled after a
income was weak.
half-decade of strong returns. The forecast typically assumes market returns will
trend back to “normal” rates, so income tends to increase in years after below-
average returns, and as appreciation in asset values are realised. Over the five
years 2013-14 to 2017-18, investment income averaged $3.2 billion.
Investment income is estimated to increase by an average of 5.2 per cent per
year between 2019‑20 and 2022-23, reaching $3 billion. This is mainly from
typical Heritage and endowment fund income growth, increasing Alberta
Capital Finance Authority (ACFA) income and higher income from student
loans as interest rates rise. These are partly offset by lower income from
eliminating and repatriating cash from several inactive or unnecessary funds.
Investment income from ACFA is forecast to increase by $151 million or an
average of 12.4 per cent between 2019-20 and 2022-23. ACFA accesses the
government’s strong credit rating to borrow, and then transfers that advantage
to municipalities and other local authorities by on-lending the proceeds. The
increases result from anticipated higher demand and greater use of complex
financial instruments, such as swaps. These are used to mitigate risk associated
with managing the debt portfolio and the portfolio of loans provided to
local authorities, including cash flow timing differences for repayments. As a
significant amount of “fixed rate” debt has or is maturing, it is being replaced
with “floating rate” debt to manage this risk. There is a related offsetting
increase in debt servicing costs.
me: B19-FP_Rev_tb12_faii.pdf Budget 2019
Revenue section
The Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (AFSC) similarly borrows at the
government’s rate and lends the proceeds to Alberta’s agriculture sector. Again,
associated debt servicing costs are offset by income from loans. AFSC is also an
insurer, and has additional funds and investment income from this activity.
Fund Assets/Investment Income
Fund Assets / Investment Income
(millions of dollars) Assets as at 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Mar. 31, 2019 Actual Estimate Target Target Target
Heritage Savings Trust Fund 15,956 1,071 1,286 1,217 1,336 1,422
Endowment funds a 4,135 234 269 304 346 367
Alberta Capital Finance Authority 16,478 359 358 485 497 509
Agriculture Financial Services Corp. 5,507 138 137 142 149 157
SUCH sector n.a. 298 284 287 289 293
Cash reserve 2,268 76 82 82 74 71
Other b 6,967 173 169 180 202 190
Total 51,311 2,349 2,585 2,697 2,893 3,009
a Includes Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research Endowment Fund, Alberta
Heritage Scholarship Fund and Alberta Heritage Science and Engineering Research Fund.
b Assets include Contingency Account, Cancer Prevention Legacy Fund and Alberta
Enterprise Corporation; investment income includes income from these sources, student
loans and other investment income from a variety of smaller funds and accounts.

Other Revenue
Other revenue is forecast at $9.8 billion in 2019-20, 19.5 per cent of total
revenue. This is a decrease of $484 million from 2018-19, mainly due to the
sluggish economic conditions in 2019 and to several intermittent increases in
2018-19. This revenue climbs to $10.3 billion in 2022-23.
The Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis Commission (AGLC) is responsible
for regulation and on-line retail sales of cannabis. Net income includes retailer
fees and sales revenue, less costs for administration and purchasing inventory.
In 2018-19, net income was negative $34 million, and the forecast is for
income to remain negative for the next four years, as set-up, administration and
inventory costs exceed revenue. AGLC gaming revenue is down in 2019-20,
reflecting the short-term economic weakness in late 2018 that spilled over into
2019, but then grows with the forecast strengthening economy. Liquor revenue
is forecast to increase gradually over the next few years.
ATB Financial net income is forecast to gradually recover in 2019-20 from
the 50 per cent drop in 2018-19, due primarily to higher-than-expected credit
losses from the economic slow-down. Net income then returns to healthier
growth in the following two years.
The Balancing Pool was consolidated in government reporting at year-end
2016-17, with a $2 billion net liability resulting from the return of various
power purchase arrangements, reported as negative revenue. As the Pool is
required to extinguish its net liability by 2030, it needs to generate sufficient
net income over this period to do so. The net liability was lowered $763 million
in 2017-18 and by $361 million in 2018-19 (reported as positive revenue),
based on this need, and also due to higher-than-expected electricity prices. The
Pool’s net income is estimated at $210 million in 2019-20, due to continuing
efforts to decrease the liability, and to lower debt servicing costs as forecast
borrowing requirements have declined with the drop in the liability.
Net income from the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission turned
negative in 2018-19, due to requirements to make debt toll payments starting
June 1, 2018, while the full start-up of the Sturgeon Refinery has been delayed.
Other premiums, fees and licences revenue is lower in 2019-20 due mainly to
lower timber royalties and fees, which were elevated in 2018-19 due to record
lumber prices, from strong North American housing markets, reduced supply
with severe forest fires in B.C. and the U.S., and transportation constraints.
Housing markets are not expected to be as strong, and the forecast is cautious
due to softwood lumber trade agreement uncertainties. Other premiums, fees
and licences revenue recovers in 2020-21, with the economy strengthening and
due to a number of policy changes intended to diversify revenue, enhance links
between costs and consumers, and move Alberta closer to the averages of fees in
other jurisdictions:
• The share of premiums for a number of agriculture insurance program
enhancements and benefits not offered elsewhere is being changed, with
producers covering an increasing portion, instead of the government.
While this is estimated to increase revenue by $19 million in 2020-21,

growing to $35 million by 2022-23, overall premium rate reductions being
Agriculture producers to pay
implemented will mitigate most of the additional producer costs. higher share of premiums for
• Increases to motor vehicle and land titles fees are estimated to add about certain insurance program
$9 million to 2019-20 revenue, growing to $41 million by 2022-23. enhancements and benefits.
• Fees for museum admissions and statements of health benefits paid, and
rental rates for grazing leases are increasing. New fees for Alberta Immigrant
Nominee Program applications and other services are being introduced.
These raise revenue by $8 million by 2022-23.
School board, post-secondary institution and health authority (SUCH
sector) fundraising and donations revenue is expected to drop $123 million
in 2019‑20. These types of revenue are linked to economic conditions, and
SUCH sector entities employ a relatively conservative approach to forecasting
the revenue.
Compliance payments from large industrial emitters to the new Technology
Innovation and Emissions Reduction Fund, based on a $30 per tonne carbon
price, are estimated to decline in 2020-21 with the regulatory regime effective
January 1, 2020. Revenue continues to decrease over the forecast based largely on
reduced compliance payments from the electricity sector.
The MacKinnon Panel recommended that post-secondary institutions explore MacKinnon Panel recommended
broader revenue streams to reduce reliance on government, and ask students to post-secondary institutions
broaden their revenue mix, reduce
pay a higher proportion for their post-secondary education, as in other
reliance on government grants
provinces. The freeze on tuition fees is therefore ending in 2020-21, and fees and move to comparable funding
are permitted to increase by up to 7 per cent per year for the next three years, to frameworks as other provinces.
move closer to the revenue mix of other jurisdictions. Revenue grows by Budget 2019
P_REV_chrt03_ursbp.pdf
$231 million between 2019-20 and 2022-23, with $181 million attributable to Revenue Section
the fee increase.
University Revenue Sources by Province
Government Grants Tuition and Fees Own Source Other Grants
100% 5% 6% 7% 8%
90%
24% 21% 15%
80% 22%
70% 16%
60% 18%
28%
35%
50%
40%
30% 62%
54%
20% 44%
36%
10%
0%
Alberta British Columbia Ontario Quebec
Sources: 2016-17 Revenue from Canadian Association of University Business Officers FIUC database;
2016-17 University Headcount from Statistics Canada Table 37-10-0015-01.
Other revenue is estimated to decrease $274 million in 2019-20, due mainly to

several non-recurring or unexpectedly-high items in 2018-19 revenue, including
gains on asset disposals and adjustments for prior-year expense accruals, such as

for disasters, or social, health and other grant programs. AIMCo investment
Pdf name: B19-FP_Rev_tb13_rfos.pdf
management charges are also expected to be lower in 2019-20. The forecast Budget 20
Revenue sect
includes increases to revenue from municipalities instead of the province paying
for biology casework analysis, estimated at $5 million starting in 2020-21, and
sharing 60 per cent of fines and penalties revenue with municipalities, instead of
73.3 per cent, estimated at $37 million per year beginning 2020-21.
Revenue from Other Sources
Revenue from Other Sources
AGLC - gaming / lottery 1,446 1,414 1,410 1,454 1,481
AGLC - liquor 860 823 910 928 947
AGLC - cannabis (34) (31) (34) (24) (25)
ATB Financial 139 153 243 284 284
Balancing Pool 361 210 85 94 103
Alberta Petroleum Marketing Comm. (215) (173) (78) (264) (234)
Post-secondary tuition fees 1,256 1,309 1,396 1,467 1,540
Health / school board fees 701 697 705 714 723
Other premiums, fees and licences 1,954 1,866 1,946 1,950 1,978
SUCH sales, rentals, services 968 1,053 1,067 1,081 1,094
SUCH fundraising, donations, gifts 809 686 701 712 720
TIER Fund 528 556 478 454 415
Other 1,482 1,208 1,248 1,249 1,240
Total 10,255 9,771 10,077 10,099 10,267
Risks
Alberta relies heavily on revenue that is volatile and unpredictable, including
non-renewable resource revenue, corporate income tax and investment
income. Since 2004-05, these have accounted for up to 55 per cent of total
revenue, but in 2019-20 they are estimated at only 27 per cent. This revenue
is linked to factors such as energy prices, equity markets, exchange and interest
rates, geopolitical events, global economic swings and weather, which are all
uncertain and can fluctuate rapidly. The corporate income tax and resource
revenue decline relative to 2014-15 was directly tied to the oil price collapse.
This large revenue uncertainty means the Alberta government must assess the
degree of risk associated with its revenue outlook and spending decisions.
For example, under a “no market access” scenario, described on pages 49–50
No market access scenario
of the Economic Outlook, in which the three expected pipelines (Enbridge Line
reduces revenue by $3 billion
in 2022-23.
3, Trans Mountain expansion and Keystone XL) are permanently cancelled,
foregone income tax and resource revenue would be $3 billion by 2022-23.
This is due to the higher transportation costs bitumen producers would face
and, in turn, lower prices they would receive. Transportation by rail adds
US$7–9 per barrel to costs, and the light-heavy oil price differential would
climb to US$21.70 per barrel instead of the US$17.10 per barrel that the
Budget 2019 forecast is based on. As a result, investment in Alberta would be
about $13 billion lower, production about 120,000 barrels per day less, and
jobs and the economy would be significantly impacted.
The MacKinnon Panel recommended the government adopt a Revenue
Forecasting Allowance equal to 0.75 per cent of total revenue, once the budget

M:\MinShare\PublnsProd\CorpFin\OBM.PUBLNS-2019-20\B19_Fiscal-Plan_vol\03_REVenue_B19\source-docs\ 10/16/20
B-19_FP_REVenue_tables OCTOBER.xlsx 12:56 P
is balanced in 2022-23, growing to 1.25 per cent of revenue over the following
Resource Forecast Allowance of
three years. Budget 2019 implements this recommendation. An allowance of $450 million included in 2022-23
$450 million must be deducted prior to the balanced budget calculation. bottom line, as recommended by
MacKinnon Panel.
Global and US Economies
• Budget 2019 assumes global economic expansion of around 3 per cent in
2019. Growth in China continues to decelerate, and trade disputes and
other issues have slowed economic activity in many economies. Substantial
risks remain. Weaker-than-forecast global growth would harm Alberta’s
revenue forecast, as oil prices would remain lower for longer.
Energy Prices
• The WTI oil price is forecast to average US$57/bbl in 2019-20, $58 in
2020-21, $62 in 2021-22, and then $63 in 2023-24. These prices are in line
with the average of energy analysts surveyed by the government.
• Price forecasts depend on an array of assumptions about demand and
supply. Factors influencing demand include economic growth in disparate
regions around the world, from the U.S. to China to Europe, pipeline or
refinery outages, and storage and speculative market activities by traders.
On the supply side, the level and duration of compliance with the
agreement to cut production by OPEC and several non-OPEC members
is critical, as has been the response to higher prices by the U.S. industry.
Other factors include investment and drilling decisions by other producers,
geopolitical events, civil unrest or terrorist strikes, economic sanctions, or
simple weather-related production disruptions.
• Without sufficient pipeline capacity, Alberta’s growing bitumen production
has to be transported by more costly rail, increasing the light-heavy Without sufficient pipeline
capacity, Alberta producers face
differential, lowering prices for producers and government revenue.
higher transportation costs,
• Natural gas prices remain weak due mainly to increasing production of lowering prices they receive.
U.S. shale gas that has outstripped demand growth.
me: B19-FP_REV_tb14_sfya.pdf Budget 2019
Interest Rates Revenue section
• Interest rates bumped up during the last year, and are forecast to rise very
gradually over the next several years. Lower rates generally help government
investment income. While short-term investments perform poorly, the
Sensitivities to Fiscal Year Assumptions, 2019-20a
Sensitivities to Fiscal Year Assumptions, 2019-20A
Change Net Impact
Oil price (WTI US$/bbl) -$1 -310
Light-heavy oil price differential (US$/bb) +$1 -280
Natural gas price (Cdn$/GJ) -10¢ -20
Exchange rate (US¢/Cdn$) + 1¢ -260
Interest rates +1% -255
Primary household income -1% -210
a Sensitivities are based on current assumptions of prices and rates and show the effect for
a full 12 month period. Sensitivities can vary significantly at different price and rate levels.
The energy price sensitivities do not include the potential impact of price changes on the
revenue from land lease sales.

market value of bonds with higher rates held in endowment portfolios
increase. Lower rates also typically encourage business investment, economic
activity and consumer spending, all providing economic support to Alberta’s
resource-based economy.
• Rising rates pose risks for indebted households, consumer spending and
the government. Substantial borrowing is planned, and higher rates make
borrowing or refinancing of debt more expensive.
Exchange Rates
• The US-Canadian dollar exchange rate is forecast to average 75US¢/Cdn$
in 2019-20, 76 cents in 2020-21, 77 cents in 2021-22, and 78 cents in
2022-23. It was 76.3US¢/Cdn$ in 2018-19.
• A stronger Canadian dollar decreases the value of oil exports and the
demand for exports priced in Canadian dollars. Changes in the exchange
rate affect the profitability of energy producers, which can affect investment
and government resource revenue as energy prices and contracts are mainly
in US dollars. Investment income is also impacted due to significant foreign
holdings in the Heritage Savings Trust Fund and endowment funds.
Equity Markets
• Equity markets performed well for five years, but were not as strong in
2018-19. Investment income benefited, averaging more than $3 billion
between 2013-14 and 2017-18, though it fell to $2.3 billion in 2018-19.
Markets can be affected by a wide range of factors, such as the strength
of the U.S., European and developing economies, or fluctuations in
commodity prices and interest rates.
• Alberta has significant assets invested globally. Forecast investment income is
based on long-term expected rates of return. Financial market performance
and investment income could vary considerably.
Net Corporate Operating Surplus

• Corporate profits in Alberta were hit hard in 2015 and 2016, but began
rebounding in 2017 and 2018 with reduced costs, and growing production,
exports and consumer spending. In late 2018, oil prices declined and the
light-heavy oil price differential expanded, eroding corporate profits in 2018
and those expected for 2019. Production curtailment is also impacting sales
volumes and income. Business investment is expected to improve, bolstered
by petrochemical and other projects. However, it can be difficult to predict
how forecast net corporate operating surplus translates to corporate income
tax revenue. Taxable income can differ significantly from corporate profits,
due to tax changes or discretionary deductions such as depreciation or
prior‑year losses which can be carried forward or back and affect corporate
income tax revenue for years.

BUDGET 2019
Fiscal Plan
Expense
79
Table of Contents
Expense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Spending Within Our Means. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Health. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Kindergarten to Post-Secondary Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Social Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
Other Ministries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
Public Sector Compensation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
Streamlining Government Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
80 Expense | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Expense
Spending Within Our Means

Budget 2019 is focused on bringing government spending within our means
while protecting Alberta’s core public services and making life better for all
Albertans.
The previous government dramatically increased debt and the costs of servicing
that debt, and left Albertans with a precarious financial situation as total
expenses grew by over $7 billion, or 15 per cent, over four years (2016-2019).
Policy and legislative changes will realize operating savings of 0.5 per cent in
2019-20 and 2.3 per cent by 2020-21. Total operating spending by 2022-23
will be 2.8 per cent lower, or $1.3 billion lower, than 2018-19 levels. Total
cumulative operating savings over the next four years is nearly $4 billion
compared to 2018-19.
The goal is to bring government spending more in line with that in other
me: B19-FP-EXP_epc.pdf
provinces, Budget
while providing the better services and outcomes Albertans 2019 Fiscal Plan Expense
deserve.
Expenditures Per Capita

Expenditures Per Capita
ON, QB, BC AB
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
Source: Amounts for 2008-09 to 2017-18 are based on Statistics Canada data. Amounts for Alberta from
2018-19 onward are based on the amounts presented in the budget adjusted for Statistics Canada
methodology. Expenditures for BC, ON, QB from 2018-19 onward were adjusted based on the
percentage increase provided in each province’s budget.
Expense | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 81

pdf named: B19-FP-EXP_mb19.pdf Budget 2019 - Fiscal Plan, Expense Section
Modelling Budget 2019

Confidential (TB deliberations) | Updated at Sep 11 @ 10 pm
(Millions of dollars)
Budget 2019 – 4 Year Expense Summary Table
(in millions) 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating Expense by Ministries
Health 20,409 20,610 20,616 20,632 20,672
Kindergarten to Post-Secondary Education
Kindergarten to Grade 12 8,223 8,223 8,223 8,223 8,223
Post-Secondary 5,392 5,117 4,976 4,866 4,756
Social Service Ministries 5,754 6,134 6,188 6,244 6,268
Other Ministries 8,656 8,115 7,332 7,214 7,174
Total Operating Expense 48,434 48,199 47,335 47,179 47,095
Disaster and Emergency Assistance 507 636 - - -
Capital Grants 1,952 2,086 1,957 1,999 2,024
Amortization/Inventory Consumption/Loss on Disposals 3,651 3,691 3,775 3,848 3,875
Debt Servicing 1,971 2,265 2,520 2,780 3,013
Pension Provisions (190) (337) (375) (324) (248)
Expense before Crude by Rail and Contingency 56,329 56,540 55,212 55,482 55,759
Crude by Rail Provision 6 1,500 - - -

Contingency and Disaster and Emergency Assistance - 680 750 750 750
pdf named: B19-FP-EXP_mb19.pdf

Government is committed to providing public services to people with the
greatest need. To that end, Budget 2019 maintains or increases funding to core
social services. Budget 2019 maintains annual funding of:
• $20.6 billion to provide health services.
• $8.2 billion for kindergarten to grade 12 (K–12) education services.
• $3.9 billion for community and social services.
• $1.6 – $1.7 billion for children’s services.
• $638 million for seniors and housing services.
Government is taking a prudent approach to all government spending to ensure

value for money and live within our means.
https://bud.tbfsp.gov.ab.ca/Confidential/Confidential Docs/Fiscal Plan 2019/Expense/Expense Chapter tables and graphs/

Expense_charts, graphs, tables/Support for fiscal plan 10/18/2019/ 11:36 AM

Health
The Ministry of Health delivers services to all Albertans and fosters healthy
communities where families can thrive. Budget 2019 puts patients at the
centre of Alberta’s health care system by improving access so that all Albertans,
regardless of where they live, can get high quality health care faster when they
need it.
Health spending is the largest budget expenditure at about 43 per cent of total
operating costs. Spending grew an average of 5 per cent per year from 2008-09
to 2018-19. There are significant system pressures and challenges: population
increases, inflation, increasing drug costs and the need for more continuing
care, and addictions and mental health care spaces. This government will
make careful, evidence-based decisions to help mitigate these challenges and
reduce rising costs. Controlling costs will help us live within our means while
providing efficient, quality services to everyone in Alberta.
Alberta Health Care Spending Per Capita vs Other Provinces

Avg
AB BC ON QC
(excl.AB)
Health per capita $ 4,267 $ 4,080 $ 4,370 $ 4,239
$ 5,077
spending (2018)
Difference (versus $ 28 $ (159) $ 131
$ 838
average)
Population (in millions) 4.31 4.99 14.32 8.39
Total health spending

difference from average $ 3.61 $ 0.14 $ (2.28) $ 1.10
(in billions)
Sources: CIHI National Expenditure Database; values for 2018 are forecast. Statistics Canada.
Table 17-10-0005-01 Population Estimates on July 1st by Age and Sex
Budget 2019 acts on government’s commitment to maintain or increase health

spending and provide a universally accessible, publicly-funded health system.
Health’s operating budget is $20.6 billion in 2019-20, an increase of
$201 million, or 1 per cent from 2018-19. Funding over four years provides:
• $100 million for the Mental Health and Addiction Strategy.
• $40 million for an Opioid Response Strategy.
• $20 million for Palliative Care.
• $6 million for a new Sexual Assault Hotline.
• $4 million for the Health Quality Council of Alberta.
A detailed plan to address surgical wait times is in development for

Budget 2020.
Alberta spends more per person compared to other provinces, yet we do not
have better health outcomes. The ministry must be more innovative and
efficient with the billions of dollars spent on health every year and to offset cost
pressures from growing demand for services, and growing cost of services.

Alberta Health Services (AHS)
Independent contractor Ernst & Young is completing the first comprehensive
review of AHS since it was formed 10 years ago. The final report will be
released publicly, and is due to government by December 31, 2019. The
review will identify potential ways AHS can reduce costs and improve system
performance. Savings will be re-invested into front-line services.
In 2019-20, a total of $15.4 billion is budgeted for AHS operations. AHS
continues to find savings through ongoing operational best practice initiatives.
It will implement many other savings initiatives to offset continued growth
pressures, including reducing overall compensation costs within the parameters
of the existing collective agreements. Savings in corporate and support areas,
as well as clinical reforms, will reflect service levels in other provinces and will
provide more consistent services within Alberta. Outsourcing linen and other
services are under consideration to allow AHS to focus on the delivery of
health care.
Drugs and Supplemental Health Benefits

Provinces and the federal government have been working together on
initiatives, including a pan-Canadian generic drug pricing agreement, to reduce
the rate of growth in provincial drug costs. However, Alberta’s drug costs are
higher than in other provinces, in part due to program design.
Budget 2019 reflects savings from implementing a number of program changes.
Benefits to people most in need will not be affected.
Program changes will include expanding both the Biosimilars Initiative and
Maximum Allowable Cost pricing rules to limit drug benefit coverage to
lower-cost alternatives that are clinically appropriate. The Alberta Seniors Drug
Benefit Program provides coverage for non-senior dependents such as partners
and dependents under 65, a benefit few other provinces provide. Dependent
coverage will end later this fiscal year and income testing for seniors drugs
will be explored. Even with these changes, $1.7 billion in operating expense is
budgeted for these programs in 2019-20, consistent with 2018-19 spending.
Enhancing Scope of Practice

Enhancing scope of practice for professionals in long-term care facilities gives
operators the flexibility to hire and deploy the most appropriate staff based on
residents’ assessed needs and regulatory requirements. Expanding the Licensed
Practical Nurse (LPN) scope lets LPNs work to their full professional capacity.
In turn, this can lower the number of Registered Nurse (RN) funded hours per
weighted resident day with no impact on residents’ quality of care. Overall, the
mix of funded hours will change. Over three years (2020-23), savings of over
$100 million are anticipated through these changes.
Physician Compensation and Development

The MacKinnon Panel highlighted that physician compensation in Alberta has
grown by nearly 300 per cent since 2002, and average physician fee-for-service
billings in Alberta are significantly higher than other provinces. The panel’s

report noted that one of the challenges in addressing physician compensation
costs is the current agreement with the Alberta Medical Association (AMA),
which precludes significant changes in how physicians are paid.
The agreement expires on March 31, 2020. Government is prepared to
negotiate with the AMA to limit cost growth. Program changes will be
required, including adjustments to the schedule of medical benefits, and
measures to reduce the rate of growth in the supply of physicians will be
necessary to reduce the rate of growth in physician compensation costs. A
total of $5.3 billion is budgeted in 2019-20 for Physician Compensation and
Development programs, consistent with spending in 2018-19.
me: B19_FP_EXP_07ppegs.pdf Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Expense
Figure 7:Physician
Provincial Provincial PhysicianGrowth
Expenditure Expenditure Growth Since 2002
Since 2002
Growth %
350% AB ON BC QC
289%
300%
240%
250%
195%
200%
161%
150% 119%
100%
65%
Slight reductions in Acute Care
50% 30%
12% reflect shifting more funds into
Community and Continuing Care.
0%
Administration costs have been
reduced by 4 per cent from 2018-
19 and will be reviewed for further
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_02-soo.pdf Budget 2019
Note:
Note: Values
Valuesused
used for 2017&&2018
for 2017 2018
areare forecasts.
forecasts. Comparator Average excludes Alberta. savings following the Ernst
Fiscal & Tables
Plan
Source:
Source: Alberta
AlbertaHealth
Health completed
completed analysis
analysis of theof theNational
CIHI CIHI National Health Expenditure
Health Expenditure Database. Database.
Young report.
Ministry of Health - Operating Expense
(millions ofof
Ministry dollars)
Health – Operating Expense
pdf name: B19_FP_EXP_07ppegs.pdf
Operating Expense
Acute Care 3,767 3,713 3,675 3,675 3,698
Administration 553 530 530 530 530
Ambulance Services 506 495 493 493 494
Cancer Research and Prevention Investment 2 10 14 15 15
Community Care 1,394 1,460 1,488 1,520 1,543
Continuing Care 1,121 1,138 1,138 1,154 1,173
Diagnostic, Therapeutic and Other Patient Services 2,378 2,340 2,328 2,321 2,326
Drugs and Supplemental Health Benefits 1,653 1,740 1,735 1,731 1,733
Home Care 682 682 682 682 682
Information Technology 491 559 636 596 530
Ministry Support Services 60 62 61 61 61
Physician Compensation and Development 5,282 5,311 5,295 5,298 5,326
Population and Public Health 551 618 615 626 626
Research and Education 80 74 77 80 75
Support Services 1,890 1,879 1,850 1,850 1,861
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_02-mohoe-tb.pdf

Kindergarten to Post-Secondary Education
Education – K–12
The Ministry of Education supports students, parents, teachers and
administrators from Early Childhood Services (ECS) through Grade 12.
Education’s operating expense is $8.2 billion, the same as actual spending in
2018-19. Alberta’s K‒12 population continues to grow at a higher rate than
other provinces and is up by more than 23 per cent over the past 10 years.
Budget 2019 keeps government’s commitment to fund enrolment growth of
2.2 per cent. Three previously targeted grants are reallocated and a one-time
transitional grant is implemented to maintain funding at 2018-19 levels
for school authorities, including independent schools and home schooling.
Education’s current funding model is not sustainable. Operational funding is
driven by enrolment, and demographic changes lead to increased competition
among school authorities rather than collaboration and sharing services to
optimize efficiency. More students, complex student needs, growing programs
pdf named: B19-FP-EXP_efahp.pdf
and increasing costs need a new framework to support better studentBudget 2019 Fiscal Plan Expens
outcomes
sustainably.
The MacKinnon Panel reported that Alberta has a well-funded education
Education Funding
system compared – Aprovinces,
to other Historical Perspective
spending $11,121 per student compared
to British Columbia at $9,681.
Student Enrolment Growth – A Historical Perspective 15 years
120% Enrolment Inflation Operational Funding
100%
Cumulative % Change
Operational Funding:
80%
80% Increase
60%
Inflation:
40% 33% Increase
20%
Enrolment:
25% Increase
0%
Source: Budget & Fiscal Analysis Branch, Alberta Education

The MacKinnon Panel recommended government review and revise its
education funding formula to address enrolment growth, and provide
incentives for sharing services and achieving better student outcomes. This
recommendation is in keeping with government’s commitment to maintain
education funding, while seeking greater efficiency by reducing administration
overhead and pushing resources to front-line teachers.
The ministry is consulting with stakeholders as part of an assurance and
A new K–12 Assurance and
funding review. This will support the development of a new K–12 Assurance
Funding Framework is being
and Funding Framework that will come into effect in September 2020 for the developed.
2020-21 school year. The new framework is expected to:
• Increase the share of funding going into the classrooms.
• Contain cost growth.
• Predictably allocate funds.
• Assure the long-term viability of rural schools.
• Improve key performance data available to parents and reporting to
stakeholders.
• Foster collaboration among school authorities in procurement and
providing services to realize economies of scale, create centres of excellence
and encourage best practices.
Budget 2019 will use the 2019-20 school year as a transition year for the current
funding model, keeping government’s commitment to fund enrolment growth
while re-allocating the Class Size Funding, Classroom Improvement and School
Fee Reduction grants, and introducing a one-time per student transition grant
to school authorities.
In consultation with the minister, school authorities can spend their
Schools boards have reserves
own-source revenue and reserves generated from accumulated surpluses of prior
to support programming –
years. Revenue from sources other than government was $782 million in $392 million in operating and
2018-19 and is expected to grow over $100 million in the next four years. $226 million in capital reserves.
This is to respect parents’ choice by increasing school boards’ ability to provide
specialized educational services focused on individual student needs at a
reasonable fee. School boards also have access to $392 million in accumulated
reserves from operations, and $226 million in capital reserves, so they can
continue to deliver high level educational services while we transition into a
new more sustainable funding model.
The table on the following page shows how adjusted accumulated reserves
from operations grew consistently from 2012-2016 by over 60 per cent before
beginning to drop in 2017. This led to increased Auditor General scrutiny
of how the department monitors school board reserves, and to a formal
recommendation in November 2018 that Education improve its processes to
monitor, assess and report on school board operating reserves. It is expected
that the boards will honour their commitments to follow the reserve guidelines
established by Education in response to the Auditor General recommendation
and use the reserves to support programming.

pdf named: B19-FP-EXP_sbaor.pdf Budget 2019 - Fiscal Plan, Expense Sectio
School
School Boards
Boards Accumulated
Accumulated Operating
Reserves Reserves
$ millions Adjusted Operating Reserves Capital Reserves
600
489
500 461 468
413 417
392
400
302
300 242
232 226
199
200 150 147
136
100
Source: Ministry of Education

Fiscal Plan Tables
Ministry
Ministry of of Education
Education - Operating
– Operating Expense
Expense
(millions of
dollars)
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating Expense
Instruction - Early Childhood Service to Grade 12 6,329 6,399 6,396 6,407 6,407
Operations and Maintenance 751 706 700 700 700
Student Transportation 375 362 362 362 362
Governance and System Administration 279 279 279 279 279
Program Support Services 192 180 190 190 190
Accredited Private Schools and Early Childhood Service Operators 286 291 290 278 278
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_moeoe-tb

Advanced Education
The Ministry of Advanced Education oversees Alberta’s adult learning system
that offers a broad spectrum of formal, non-formal and other learning across all
regions of the province. The adult learning system is integral in helping build
vibrant and inclusive communities while removing barriers, supporting greater
equality and helping people reach their full potential. The adult learning system
also enables innovation and helps address critical questions and challenges
related to labour force demands and the need for a resilient and diversified
economy.
By providing Albertans with a wide range of opportunities to advance their
education, the adult learning system produces a highly skilled and productive
workforce, empowers citizens to make meaningful contributions to their
communities.
Alberta spends more on post-secondary education per student than most other
provinces. If Alberta spent at the same rate per student as our neighbours in
B.C., we would save over $700 million per year.

10/17/2019/ 10:19 AM
Expense_charts, graphs, tables.xlsx/School Board Reserves
Under the current model, institutional increases have been applied equally,
There are no reductions to student
regardless of whether or not institutions are achieving results. Alberta can no scholarships.
longer afford a funding model that does not reflect Alberta’s economic realities
or provide the results that Albertans deserve. For the first time in decades,
Alberta will move away from increases based on historical funding and will start
to fund based on outcomes and needs. For most of the past 15 years, funding
increases have significantly outpaced population growth and inflation (see graph
on page 90).
To respond to evolving system needs and to the MacKinnon Panel, the ministry
will introduce a new funding model. Changes will take effect in 2020-21.
This model will introduce performance based, at-risk funding that responds
to system performance. The focus will be on accountability, student service
delivery and job creation. It also will bring Alberta’s post-secondary costs in line
with other Canadian jurisdictions. Transition provisions will ensure institutions’
viability. Ending the tuition freeze that was in place for the past five years
will bring Alberta tuition levels for degree programs closer to those in other
provinces.
The new funding model will help institution boards, senior administrators and
the broader campus community to proactively manage costs and demonstrate
value for money. This model will drive institutional transformation through
funding reductions and by rewarding institutions for finding efficiencies and
increasing enrolment.
While Alberta is reducing its funding to post secondary institutions, our
funding per student is still significantly higher than comparator provinces.
me: B19_FP_EXP_psspc Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Expense Section
Post-secondary Spending
(per capita)
$40,000 ON, QB, BC AB
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$-
Sources: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, Report and Recommendations – Blue Ribbon Panel on
Alberta’s Finances (MacKinnon Panel report), Statistics Canada, and Budget 2019 documents for
ON, QB and BC.

Government places tremendous value on advanced education and recognizes
post-secondary students are the next generation of leaders. Budget 2019
strives to create jobs by investing in a fiscally responsible way that increases
accountability over performance. Government funding must deliver the best
services and results for students and taxpayers.
Advanced Education’s operating expense is budgeted at $5.1 billion in 2019‑20,
down five per cent from last year. Operating expenses are reduced 12 per cent
over four years to $4.8 billion by 2022-23, saving $1.9 billion. This is achieved
largely through departmental efficiencies and by reducing Campus Alberta
Grants to institutions.
Budget 2019 provides additional funding to:
• Support apprentices, including women who wish to pursue the skilled
trades, by expanding the Women Building Futures program ($10 million
over the next four years).
• Help young Albertans demonstrate their skills on the national and world
stage and participate in the Skills Canada National Competition ($2 million
over four years for Skills Canada Alberta).
• Double the number of schools to 1,000 from 500 that work with
CAREERS the Next Generation, and quadruple the number of students
and full-time apprentices from 1,567 to 6,000 by 2023 ($4.3 million
annually by 2022-23).
pdf named: B19-FP-EXP_ftpsiahp.pdf Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Expe
Funding to Post-Secondary Institutions – A Historical Perspective
120% Base Operating Grants Inflation Student Enrolment
100%
80%
Base Operating Grants 106.6%
60%
40%
Inflation 30.1%
20%
Student Enrolment (FLE) 21.1%

0%
Source: Advanced Education

New veterans’ and trades scholarships will be introduced ($1 million per year).
A new Skills for Jobs Task Force, with funding of $1 million, will report on
how to reform education to expand vocational education and the skilled trades.
The MacKinnon Panel reported that Alberta universities and colleges depend
far more on government grants and less on tuition as a share of revenue
compared to British Columbia and Ontario. Government’s ability to provide
the additional funding to programs and services is limited. Encouraging
institutions to expand revenues from non-government sources, combined with
ending the tuition freeze in 2020-21, will rebalance institutional revenues.
Untying the hands of the institutions will reduce their dependency on
government funding and will mitigate the impacts of funding reductions.
Fiscal Plan Tables
Ministry
Ministry of of Advanced
Advanced Education
Education - Operating
– Operating Expense Expense
(millions of
dollars)
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating Expense
Support for Adult Learning 81 80 79 79 79
Apprenticeship Delivery 32 37 38 39 39
Student Aid 230 232 207 210 213
Foundational Learning Supports 97 97 96 96 96
Post-Secondary Operations 4,939 4,660 4,545 4,432 4,319
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_moaeoe-tb

Social Services
Children’s Services
The Ministry of Children’s Services focuses on prevention and early
intervention, child development and delivering supports and services to
vulnerable children, youth and families. It works to ensure that children in
Alberta have the tools they need to thrive in healthy families and communities.
The ministry’s operating budget is $1.6 billion, an increase of $94 million
compared to 2018-19. The expenditure is expected to grow by 15 per cent
by 2022-23, compared to 2018-19. This increase aligns with government’s
commitment to protect vulnerable Albertans while living within our means.
The ministry will review the Child Care Licensing Act over the next year to
reduce red tape, support greater choice for parents and maintain focus on the
safety of children.
Provincial child care spending will continue to centre on affordability, quality
and accessibility in licensed and approved settings while transforming the
system overall. A transformed child care system will mean families will be able
to choose from a variety of options to meet their unique needs and that the
lowest income families will be supported with subsidies that help ensure their
children’s access to quality programs.
Early Learning and Child Care Centres (ELCC centres) were developed to test
the concept of universally accessible, affordable, quality child care in a publicly
funded, publicly managed system. ELCC centres began as a pilot program and
will continue to the end of the three-year term. This pilot will be evaluated
through a rigorous review process.
Families will benefit from government spending in prevention and early
intervention to support safety, well-being and resiliency for young Albertans.
Government procurement of community resources will consider the needs of
children, youth and families at risk. Delivery will be standardized and align
with the province’s well-being and resiliency model. The transformed model
will focus on providing a broad range of services for families with children from
birth to 18 years of age.
A new Alberta Child and Family Benefit will protect the most vulnerable by
A new Alberta Child and Family
giving more to those with the lowest income. It will maintain incentives to
Benefit is being introduced.
enter the workforce as a portion of benefits are phased-in based on employment
income. The new benefit will replace the Alberta Child Benefit and the Alberta
Family Employment Tax Credit. Consolidation simplifies payments for families
and lowers administrative costs. The benefit increases financial support to
low income families and ensures Alberta has some of the most generous child
benefits in the country (see the tax section on page 147 for more information).

Fiscal Plan Tables
Ministry of Children Services - Operating Expense

Ministry
(millions ofof Children’s Services – Operating Expense
dollars)
Operating Expense
Child Intervention 800 868 858 865 867
Child Care 402 419 409 425 442
Early Intervention Services for Children and Youth 104 104 91 91 91
Policy, Innovation and Indigenous Connections 11 9 9 9 9
Alberta Child Benefit 169 179 46 - -
Alberta Child and Family Benefit - - 220 298 303
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_mocsoe-tb

Community and Social Services
The Ministry of Community and Social Services supports families and
communities, and helps Albertans access disability services, financial supports,
services for the homeless and other social-based programs. The ministry’s
operating expense is budgeted at $3.9 billion in 2019-20 and for the remainder
of the Budget 2019 fiscal plan, an increase of 7.6 per cent or $276 million.
Spending in community and social services will protect Albertans in need,
while the ministry will look to reduce administrative costs for the multitude of
programs provided.
Income Support (IS) and Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped
(AISH) benefits will be maintained. Under the previous government, benefits
were adjusted annually using the Alberta Consumer Price Index (indexing).
Indexing will be paused, reducing costs by $10 million in 2019-20.
Alberta’s benefit rates are much higher than other provinces on social services in
several key areas, including AISH benefits. Reform in social services will ensure
that vulnerable Albertans continue to receive the support they require.
Ongoing consultation and collaboration will help balance fiscal efficiency
with care and service. Caseload growth is a key cost driver with caseloads
growing by 17 per cent for AISH, 14 per cent for Persons with Developmental
Disabilities (PDD), and 30 per cent for Family Support for Children with
Disabilities (FSCD) over the past four years. A full program review will
determine what activities provide value while clearing tasks that distract from
client service.
The low income transit support pilot in Edmonton and Calgary is extended to Low income transit support is
support Albertans in need, at $9.5 million per year. extended.

Expense | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23
Copy of X-BUDGET-2019_TABLESPRINT Oct/Children Services 93
10/7/2019 /12:21 PM
We pay so much more than other Jurisdictional Scan of AISH Benefits
provinces in AISH benefits, it would
take around 20 years of inflation for Rank AISH Monthly Core Benefit
the next most generous province to
One Adult
reach Alberta benefit levels.
1 AB $1,685
2 SK $1,255
3 BC $1,183
4 ON $1,169
5 PE* $818
6 NB $763
7 NL* $754
8 NS N/A
9 QC N/A
10 MB N/A
pdf name: B19-FP-EXP_gipcac.pdf
* NL and PE information is from 2017 Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Expense Sectio
Growth in Population, Caseload and Cost from 2015 - 2019

The population qualifying for Growth in Population, Caseload and Cost From 2015 - 2019
AISH benefits (based on caseload
growth) has grown by more than Caseload Cost Population Growth
35%
three times higher than the growth
rate of Alberta’s general population 30%
30%
in the past four years (17 per cent 26%
compared to 5.4 per cent).
25%
20%
20% 18%
17%
14%
15%
10%
5%
0%
AISH FSCD PDD
Sources: Ministry of Community and Social Services

Fiscal Plan Tables
pdf named: B19-FP-EXP_gipcac.pdf
Ministry
Ministry of of Community
Community and Social
and Social Services
Services - Operating
– Operating Expense Expense
(millions of
dollars)
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating Expense
Employment and Income Support 921 983 935 854 790
Assured Income for the Severely Handicapped 1,142 1,285 1,308 1,354 1,399
Disability Services 1,241 1,308 1,325 1,359 1,378
Homeless and Outreach Support Services 196 197 197 197 197
Community Supports and Family Safety 120 125 133 134 134
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_mocassoe-tb

Seniors and Housing
The Ministry of Alberta Seniors and Housing provides programs and services to
assist seniors and promote their safety and wellbeing. The ministry also supports
the development of affordable housing and ensures Albertans in need have
access to housing options.
The ministry’s operating expense budget is $638 million, rising slightly to
$639 million annually for 2020 to 2023. That’s an increase of $9 million or
1.4 per cent compared to 2018-19. This modest increase reflects government’s
commitment to living within our means while ensuring no spending reductions
med: B19-FP-EXP_spapl.pdf
for seniors and keeping seniors above the poverty line. Budget 2019 - Fiscal Plan, Expense Section
Seniors Payments
Seniors Payments and
and Poverty
Poverty Line
Line
Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) Old Age Security (OAS)

Prov. Seniors Benefit Local Poverty Level
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$-
AB ON BC
Note: 2019 data. All figures assume no sources of private income. Data for Quebec was not available.
(1) These are pre-index maximum rates.
Sources: Provincial Benefit payment rates from Alberta Seniors & Housing: GIS and OAS rates from the
pdf named: B19-FP-EXP_spapl.pdf
Government of Canada; Poverty lines from the Government of Canada, Canada’s First Poverty
Reduction Strategy.
There are no planned reductions in seniors benefits. Pausing indexation of the

Alberta Seniors Benefit, Special Needs Assistance programs, Supplementary
Accommodations Benefit, and the Seniors Lodge Assistance program is
planned and will reduce costs by $55 million over four years. Funding will
accommodate caseload growth in these programs so all seniors that qualify
continue to benefit. New program delivery mechanisms and savings in other
areas are expected to accommodate growth in seniors programs.
Operating budgets for Housing Management Bodies (HMBs) will be reduced
by an average of 3.5 per cent beginning January 1, 2020 for a total savings of
$17 million over four years. Government will honour existing rental assistance
agreements. In addition, HMBs hold $14 million in rental supplement
advances. Operational efficiencies and transforming the housing system are also
expected to create operational efficiencies of $12-$25 million over four years.

A 24 per cent reduction to the Rental Assistance program will save $44 million
over three years beginning in 2020-21. The department will rigorously pursue
B19_FP_TBS_03_cfs.pdf
partnerships with the HMBs and private sector to reduce the public costs of
Budget 2019 / Fiscal Plan Tables
affordable housing while effectively serving people in need.
Ministry of Seniors and Housing - Operating Expense

Ministry
(millions of of Seniors and Housing – Operating Expense
dollars)
Operating Expense
Alberta Seniors Benefit 390 403 417 428 437
Alberta Social Housing Corporation 189 183 171 160 151
Housing 12 12 11 10 10
Seniors Services 34 35 35 36 36
Total Operating Expense 630 638 639 639 639
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_mosahoe-tb

Other Ministries
Agriculture and Forestry

The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is responsible for policies, legislation,
regulations and services necessary for Alberta’s agriculture, food and forest
sectors to grow, prosper and diversify. The ministry also conducts wildfire and
forest management, and supports food quality and safety.
The ministry will reduce expenses by 9.1 per cent this year, or $88 million
compared to 2018-19. Operating expenses are budgeted at $879 million.
Further reductions are planned until 2022-23, when expenses will be decreased
15 per cent from 2018-19. This reduction aligns with Alberta’s commitment of
ensuring expenditures keep pace with revenues.
Following a review of Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (AFSC) office
network, corporate operations and service delivery model, AFSC expects to
reduce expenses by $5.3 million by 2020-21. Service delivery will be enhanced
to include on-farm/site visits and improved online service delivery. This is
in addition to their Client Service Center, real time chat line service and
access to any branch in their network. A strategy has been developed to meet
the evolving expectations of their clients. Additionally, through streamlined
processes, automation, red tape reduction and elimination of unnecessary
processes, AFSC expects to reduce discretionary administration expenses by a
further $1.6 million by fiscal 2020-21.
The ministry will also achieve savings of $34.1 million over four years by
transitioning to a framework of producer and industry-led research. The goal is
to maintain research capacity in the most cost effective manner. Over the next
several months, the department will work with farmers, producers and industry
to determine their research priorities and build programs to support them. A
review will be conducted to demonstrate how to focus research where needed at
a lower cost.
Aligning Alberta’s forestry operations with other provinces will save
The commitment to fight mountain
$75.8 million over four years. A key increase is $20 million over four years that
pine beetle with $20 million
supports mountain pine beetle mitigation. Alberta’s forestry and agricultural is honoured.
exports were valued at $15.8 billion in 2018, of which forestry exports were
$4.2 billion. Fighting the mountain pine beetle threat honours a platform
commitment to protect jobs and industries relying on this strategic resource.
Eliminating the former Alberta Small Brewers Development program and
the Liquor Manufacturers’ Program will save $123 million over four years.
The introduction of the reduced markup through Alberta Gaming, Liquor
and Cannabis (AGLC) creates predictability for small business owners and
contributes to economic diversification by supporting Alberta’s small liquor
manufacturing sector.
Government is a champion of Alberta’s agriculture and forestry industries
and stands with them to ensure their continued success and future growth.
The ‘Fighting for Agriculture and Forestry’ Strategy is designed to strengthen
consumer confidence and promote agriculture and forestry. Budget 2019
allocates $2 million to support this important initiative in 2019-20.

Fiscal Plan Tables
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry - Operating Expense

Ministry
(millions of of Agriculture and Forestry – Operating Expense
dollars)
Operating Expense
Rural Programming and Agricultural Societies 16 16 15 15 15
Processing, Trade and Intergovernmental Relations 64 34 30 28 27
Primary Agriculture 77 70 57 52 51
Lending 26 31 29 30 30
Insurance 433 404 401 401 401
Agriculture Income Support 89 89 89 89 89
Forests 171 172 154 152 151
Climate Change Initiatives 36 3 - - -
Canadian Agricultural Partnership 37 42 42 42 42
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_moaafoe-tb
Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women

The Ministry of Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women supports
Alberta’s creative and cultural industries, artists and arts community, recreation
and sport, and the non-profit and voluntary sectors. The ministry’s operating
expense budget starts with $218 million, reducing to $158 million by 2022‑23.
This includes the gradual conclusion of the screen-based production grants,
which will be transformed to a film tax credit administered by Economic
Development, Trade and Tourism.
The ministry will reduce contributions to the Community Initiatives Program
and Other Initiatives Program, by $56.8 million over four years. Reductions
in support for major fairs in Edmonton and Calgary will save $23 million over
four years. Responsibility for all of the Alberta Sport Connection programs
will be transferred to the department, saving $2.7 million over four years.
Responsibility for all of the Alberta Historical Resources Foundation and
Historic Resources Fund programs will also be transferred to the department,
saving $800,000 over four years. Fiscal Plan Tables
Ministry of Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women - Operating Expense

(millions ofof
Ministry dollars)
Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women – Operating Expense
Operating Expense
Community and Voluntary Support Services 60 45 39 40 39
Arts and Creative Industries 83 84 73 55 39
Francophone Secretariat 1 1 1 1 1
Heritage 54 52 46 46 46
Recreation and Physical Activity 26 23 20 20 20
Status of Women and Multiculturalism 4 5 5 5 5
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_mocmasowoe-tb

98 Expense |10/7/2019
Fiscal Plan/12:30
2019 – 23
PM
Copy of X-BUDGET-2019_TABLESPRINT Oct/Agriculture
Economic Development, Trade and Tourism
The Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Tourism leads economic
development efforts, supports businesses and investors, and promotes Alberta’s
tourism industry. The ministry provides targeted support and enhanced access
to capital for small and medium-sized businesses. The ministry also represents
Alberta internationally by attracting investment and leading negotiation on
trade agreements. The operating expense budget is $286 million, compared
to $349 million in 2018-19. Through renewed and refocused investment, the
ministry’s operating budget will grow to $300 million in 2022-23.
Investment strategies will:
• Attract large corporate investments that bring economic growth, prosperity
and jobs. We will give investors confidence and make it clear that Alberta
is the best place in the world to do business. We will focus on real
opportunities, targeting the biggest and brightest to invest and grow here
in Alberta.
• Work with the innovation and venture capital community to expand
Alberta’s technology sector.
• Use technology-based solutions to identify companies that are looking to
expand and grow their business around the globe.
−− Government will support and accelerate research, innovation and
entrepreneurship through post-secondary institutions, Alberta Innovates,
Alberta Enterprise Corporation and Economic Development, Trade and
Tourism. This will grow globally-competitive enterprises here in Alberta.
−− More than $200 million will be spent for research, innovation and
commercialization to develop talent, grow sectors, leverage funding from
partners and private sector and help drive global investment.
Alberta boasts a world-renowned resource base, a stable, business-friendly
environment, highly competitive tax structure, a young and highly educated
workforce, and some of the strongest economic fundamentals in the country.
We are committed to expanding and growing these strengths. The investment
attraction strategy also reflects a MacKinnon Panel recommendation to make
competiveness, investment and attraction a top priority and to reverse the trend
of reduced private investment.
The Alberta economy has experienced a decline in private investment since
2014. Government is focused on driving investment back into our province.

Figure 28: Alberta’s investment growth
lags the
Private rest of Canada
Investment
Private Investment ($billions)
($ billions)
Alberta Rest of Canada

+5%
-2% +3% +2%
$100 -4%
$120
$90
-26%
$80 $100
$70 -22% -2% -1% -1%
$80
$60
$50 $60
$40
$30 $40
$20
$20
$10
$0 $0
10 yr avg 10 yr avg
Source: MacKinnon Panel’s Report on Alberta’s Finances
Notes: 2019 represents estimates rather than actuals

We are redirecting $25 million a year, starting in 2020, to support responsible,
$75 million is planned for Sources: Statistics Canada
dedicated investment attraction. More detail will be presented in Budget 2020.
investment attraction and outreach.
Alberta is taking a deliberate approach to building technology, data and
Pdf named: B19-FP-EXP-28_aigltroc.pdf
telecommunication strength, including leadership in artificial intelligence.
Over the next 4 years, we will spend over $34 million on initiatives related to
artificial
PPPintelligence
documentin groups like the Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute
(Amii), autonomous systems and cyberinfrastructure supports. In addition to
this, Alberta Innovates is committed to advancing data enabled innovation and
digital technology for business with $6.5 million in programing and supports
to accelerate investments in emerging technology.
Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Tourism - Operating Expense

Ministry
(millions of of Economic Development, Trade and Tourism – Operating Expense
dollars)
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating Expense
Economic Development 22 19 14 14 14
Trade and Investment Attraction 26 22 45 45 45
Science and Innovation 25 12 11 11 11
Jobs, Investment and Diversification 25 26 17 32 46
Tourism 56 52 48 47 47
Alberta Enterprise Corporation 2 2 2 2 2
Climate Change 1 - - - -
Alberta Innovates Corporation 181 142 131 131 126
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_moedtatoe-tb

Energy
The Ministry of Energy sustains the interests of Albertans through the
stewardship and responsible development of energy and mineral resource
systems.
Energy’s operating expense budget is $601 million, excluding crude-by-rail,
which is budgeted for $1.5 billion. This is an increase of $49 million or Government has incurred
significant liabilities as a result
nine per cent from 2018-19. Starting in 2020-21, the ministry will realize
of previous government energy
savings of $51 million or decrease nine per cent compared to 2018-19. By policies such as coal phase
2022-23, total cumulative savings will be $58 million compared to 2018-19. phase-out ($1.1 billion) and the
Balancing Pool ($2 billion).
Natural Gas
Budget 2019 increases our focus on natural gas and pipelines. Natural gas is key
to Alberta’s economy and future prosperity. This energy sector is responsible for
thousands of jobs and could generate billions of dollars in revenues. However,
we are being forced to sell our natural gas at a massive discount, because we
simply cannot get our resources to market.
In an effort to recognize this untapped potential in our province – and our
country – the Government of Alberta appointed an Associate Minister and
Associate Deputy Minister of Natural Gas. With a budget of $1.1 million, the
ministry will oversee a strategic plan to help reinvigorate this critical industry
and stand up for Alberta’s economic interests. Government is working side-by-
side with industry to efficiently streamline project approvals, improve pipeline
access and facilitate the construction of infrastructure that helps our natural
gas reach international markets. In doing so, we are restoring confidence in our
natural gas sector, attracting investment back to the province and creating good
energy jobs for Albertans.
Review and Reduction of Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) Costs

Alberta’s energy sector is an economic driver: attracting billions of dollars in
private investment, providing government with royalties and other revenues,
and creating jobs in the province and across the country. The Alberta Energy
Regulator (AER) oversees the responsible development of Alberta’s oil, oil
sands, natural gas and coal resources to get full value for our resources while
protecting the environment.
The AER was created six years ago. That time was marked by significant
shifts in the economic, environmental and social landscape, including
increased competition to attract global investment and reach export markets.
Recent reports have highlighted significant governance and management
shortcomings at the AER. A $500,000 review of the AER will identify changes
and enhancements to its mandate, governance and operations so Alberta
remains a predictable place to invest and a world leader in responsible resource
development.
We expect to achieve a leaner regulator that more efficiently manages industry
investments. Total cumulative savings are expected to be $147 million over four
years compared to 2018-19.

Adding Value to Alberta’s Oil and Gas Resources
The government welcomes private sector, market-driven investments in
technologies that add value to the province’s oil and gas resources. So, we are
respecting agreements made under the Petrochemicals Diversification Program
and are extending the royalty credit model to incent future projects.
On the other hand, to reduce the financial risk to Alberta taxpayers, the
government has discontinued the Petrochemicals Feedstock Program and the
Partial Upgrading Program. The previous government announced $2 billion
in grants and loan guarantees for these programs, meaning government
contributions would be provided up front, prior to confirming a project’s
completion and financial viability. Given Alberta’s fiscal climate, it is not
prudent for Alberta taxpayers to bear the financial risks of such projects.
Regulated Rate Option

In 2016, the previous government announced its intention to transition Alberta
The Regulated Rate Option
from an energy-only market to a capacity market for electricity. The transition
program would have cost
taxpayers $388 million. carried a higher risk of volatile electricity prices, so the previous government
implemented an electricity price rate cap program, which capped electricity
rates for consumers on the Regulated Rate Option at 6.8 cents per kilowatt
hour.
In July 2019, as a result of overwhelming industry support, government
decided to cancel the transition to a capacity market. This means the rate cap
program is no longer required. Budget 2019 includes funding for rate cap
payments until the program ends this fall.
The program has cost taxpayers more than $90 million. If continued to its
legislated completion date of May 31, 2021, the total cost of the program was
estimated at $388 million. By ending the regulated electricity price cap, we are
saving taxpayers millions while maintaining consumer choice.
Crude-by-Rail
Government is committed to enhancing Alberta’s market access to ensure fair
The true financial risks of crude-
value for our energy resources. We will follow through on this commitment
by-rail were never fully revealed
by the previous government. By
by advocating for pipelines—not by spending billions of taxpayers’ dollars on
ending this program, we will save additional crude-by-rail capacity. Government should not be in the business
taxpayers at least $300 million. of transporting Alberta’s oil. These actions should taken by the private sector.
However, we must take a predictable path out of the current rail contracts to
help create greater investor confidence in Alberta’s oil and gas sector.
Budget 2019 includes funding for the previous government’s crude-by-rail
program in 2019-20. The current government contracted an investment bank
to help divest the program. The estimated cost of divestment, including prepaid
expenses, could be as high as $1.5 billion. We continue to explore all legal and
legislative options to minimize cost to taxpayers.

Fight Back Strategy and Canadian Energy Centre Corporation
Alberta’s energy sector is a global leader in environmental standards, labour
standards and technological innovation, but the energy industry – and
provincial revenues – have been compromised by the actions of groups
spreading lies and disinformation about Alberta’s energy sector. Government is
proudly standing up for 533,000 Canadian jobs supported by the energy sector,
and demands a new deal – a fair deal – for Alberta and Canada.
Budget 2019 includes $30 million a year to establish the Canadian Energy
Centre corporation to move Alberta from a reactive, defensive approach, to
a proactive and assertive strategy in defending our critical energy industry.
Success will bolster the energy sector, get Albertans back to work and increase
province revenues. $10 million of this funding is being reprofiled from the
current government advertising budget; and $20 million will be supported by
TIER revenues. In addition, $2.5 million is budgeted for the public inquiry
into foreign funding of anti-energy campaigns, which was announced in
July 2019.
Ministry of Energy - Operating Expense

Ministry
(millions of of Energy – Operating Expense
dollars)
Operating Expense
Resource Development and Management 62 95 90 90 90
Cost of Selling Oil 80 83 84 96 96
Climate Change 85 103 29 33 27
Carbon Capture and Storage 1 1 1 1 1
Energy Regulation 243 225 202 201 197
Orphan Well Abandonment 46 56 57 71 71
Utilities Regulation 30 31 31 31 31
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_moenergyoe-tb

Environment and Parks
The Ministry of Environment and Parks works with Albertans, including
Indigenous communities and stakeholders, to manage the province’s
environment and natural resources to achieve Alberta’s long-term economic,
environmental and social goals.
Environment and Parks’ operating expense is budgeted at $610 million for
2019-20. This is an increase of $36 million, or six per cent from 2018-19.
Operating expense will then decline each of the following three years to
$550 million in 2022-23. This is a decrease of $24 million, or four per cent
from 2018-19.
Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER)

The Government of Alberta is committed to reducing emissions through the
TIER system. This realistic plan will not overregulate or slow our economy,
and keeps the focus on large industrial emitters while covering over 48 per cent
of emissions from the Alberta economy. Regulated facilities will have options,
including reducing their emissions, submitting emission offsets or emission
reductions credits, or paying directly into the TIER fund.
The dedicated TIER fund will be used to develop and implement technologies
that further reduce greenhouse gas emissions over time. The first $100 million
in annual revenue – and 50 per cent of the remaining revenue paid into the
fund – will be used for emission reduction projects. These include new and
improved technologies for oil sands extraction, research and investment in
carbon capture, utilization and storage, and other areas. The TIER system will
help energy-intensive facilities innovate and stay competitive by investing in
clean technology.
Environment and Parks will work with Albertans to create a climate strategy
that doesn’t place an unnecessary economic burden on families. Alberta needs a
climate strategy that strikes the right balance between environmental protection
pdf name: B19-FP-EXP_tiaer.pdf
and economic growth, and that recognizes Alberta as an ethical and reliable
Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Expense
source of energy.
Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction

4-Year
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Total
Revenue
Climate Change and Emissions Management Fund 556 478 454 415 1,903
Allocations (including operating and capital)

Innovation and Technology 228 200 197 181 806
Deficit Reduction and Canadian Energy Centre 228 189 177 157 752
Carbon Capture and Storage Capital Projects 136 71 58 58 324
Regulatory and Operations 11 11 11 11 43
Coal Workforce Transition 5 7 11 8 31

Total Allocations 608 478 454 415 1,955
pdf named: B19-FP-EXP_tiaer.pdf

TIER significantly reduces overall compliance costs across regulated facilities,
TIER reduces overall compliance
relative to the Carbon Competitiveness Incentive Regulation, while still costs while achieving greenhouse
achieving comparable Greenhouse gas reductions. Over the next four years, gas reductions.
revenue from the TIER system is estimated to be $1.9 billion. Of this,
$672 million will be allocated to deficit reduction and $80 million supporting
the Canadian Energy Centre to respond in real-time to misinformation about
Alberta’s energy industry. $1.2 billion will fund emissions reduction and
innovation, including $324 million for Carbon Capture and Storage projects
and $116 million for the Oil Sands Innovation Fund to continue investment
in high emitting in situ facilities to reduce emissions intensity, resulting in
improvements to industry competitiveness and increased operational efficiency.
Stewardship of Resources
The Government of Alberta is committed to improving flood resilience in
communities across Alberta. Our strategy includes continued investment
in community-level projects, upstream storage, healthy watersheds, flood
mapping, river forecasting, and emergency response and preparedness. We
will continue to work directly with municipalities and First Nations to protect
communities.
As proud stewards of Alberta’s natural resources, Environment and Parks is
committed to accurate and scientifically sound environmental monitoring.
The ministry is increasing delivery effectiveness of scientific activities around oil
sands monitoring by consolidating capacity, as well as allowing government to
invest efficiently in environmental monitoring and science programs dedicated
to air, land, water and biodiversity.
To recognize current fiscal constraint, there will be reductions in Environment
and Parks related to contract activities and grants. These and staff attrition are
expect to save $27 million by 2022-23.
Ministry of Environment and Parks - Operating Expense

Ministry of Environment and Parks – Operating Expense
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating Expense
Air 22 20 19 19 19
Land 43 42 41 41 42
Water 70 66 63 62 64
Fish and Wildlife 41 36 36 36 38
Integrated Planning 51 31 31 31 31
Parks 87 81 76 64 64
Land Use Secretariat 6 5 5 5 5
Science and Monitoring 69 70 70 70 70
Emissions Management 147 231 206 202 189
Quasi-Judicial Bodies 14 7 7 7 7
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_moeapoe-tb

Indigenous Relations
The Ministry of Indigenous Relations leads the development of government-
wide policies by partnering with Indigenous communities in our “Stand Up
for Alberta” strategy to help energy projects and Indigenous people succeed
and prosper. Indigenous communities in Alberta want to be partners in the
prosperity flowing from the responsible development of Alberta’s shared natural
resources.
Indigenous Relations’ operating expense is budgeted at $190 million for
2019-20, $188 million in 2020-21, and $176 million for 2021-22 and
2022‑23. Despite the reduction, government is investing in Indigenous
communities in meaningful ways through the upcoming years. Specifically,
government further partners with Indigenous communities in defense of our
shared economic interest:
• The Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation (AIOC) is being created
to support partnering in resource projects. The new AIOC will be the
first of its kind. It is a creative solution to the challenges many Indigenous
communities have to own, or co-own, major oil and gas projects.
−− It allows Indigenous communities access to capital, so they can
participate in major resource projects and enjoy the benefits of Alberta’s
resource economy.
−− Budget 2019 facilitates and backstops up to $1 billion in Indigenous
investment in natural resource projects and infrastructure, including
pipelines. It also keeps our commitment by providing $24 million over
four years to support AIOC and help it serve Indigenous stakeholders.
• The Indigenous Litigation Fund is created to support Indigenous voices in
legal actions that affect responsible resource development in Alberta.
−− It helps Indigenous communities defend their own economic

development rights when they are threatened.
−− Budget 2019 keeps our commitment to stand together with Indigenous
communities by providing $5 million annually in each of 2019-20 and
2020-21 for a total $10 million contribution.
Ministry of Indigenous Relations - Operating Expense

Ministry
(millions ofof Indigenous Relations – Operating Expense
dollars)
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating Expense
First Nations and Métis Relations 28 19 15 15 15
Indigenous Women's Initiatives 1 1 1 1 1
First Nations Development Fund 117 123 130 130 131
Metis Settlements Appeal Tribunal 1 1 1 1 1
Consultation and Land Claims 26 28 19 17 17
Land and Legal Settlement 18 2 6 1 -
Indigenous Litigation Fund - 5 5 - -
Climate Change Initiatives 17 - - - -
Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation - 6 6 6 6
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_moiroe-tb -

Infrastructure
The Ministry of Infrastructure is responsible for planning, building and
managing government-owned infrastructure.
The ministry’s operating expense budget is $460 million, a decrease of
$28 million or 5.7 per cent from 2018-19. Continued savings initiatives reduce
operating expense by $60 million by 2022-23 or 12.3 per cent from 2018-19.
Infrastructure is working to use its facilities more effectively by increasing
densities in government-owned and leased space that reduce government’s
footprint and its reliance on expensive leased space. Infrastructure also has a
defined process for identifying and declaring properties surplus and disposing
of them to minimize costs.
The amount of space government uses is one of the most significant cost drivers
facing the ministry. Some government buildings and facilities are underused.
Consolidating some users into a single building, and closing underused
buildings, will save taxpayers about $25 million over four years.
The ministry will also reduce costs in other areas for additional savings over the
next four years.
Ministry of Infrastructure - Operating Expense

Ministry of Infrastructure – Operating Expense
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating Expense
Capital Construction 15 16 27 13 13
Property Management 265 249 240 231 212
Asset Management 6 6 6 6 6
Realty Services 191 177 189 191 186
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_moioe-tb
Justice and Solicitor General

The Ministry of Justice and Solicitor General leads a fair and innovative justice
system, ensures effective policing and supports victims of crime.
The ministry’s operating expense budget is $1.45 billion for 2019-20, a decrease
of $3 million or 0.2 per cent from 2018-19. Operating expenses decrease
steadily to $1.36 billion in 2022-23. That’s down $96 million or 6.6 per cent
from 2018-19. The department will effect change and save through operational
efficiencies and automation of manual processes.
Alberta’s justice system is based primarily on paper records and decades-old
processes. The Alberta government is modernizing its justice system through
digitization. Over several years, electronic court records will become the official
record, more traffic tickets will be payable online, and courtroom operations
will be modernized. Innovative ways to address citizen’s legal disputes will also
be considered, in line with the possibilities that come with digitizing court
processes.

As part of informing and implementing the rural crime strategy, the Minister
of Justice and Solicitor General met with people across the province to hear
firsthand the concerns and ideas to stop rural crime. Actions to address the
serious rural crime issue include: increasing funding for drug treatment courts,
reviewing victims of crime programs, and increasing funding by up to
$50 million over four years for the Alberta Law Enforcement Response Teams
(ALERT). In keeping with our commitment to Albertans, Budget 2019 provides
funding for 50 new Crown prosecutors.
Ministry of Justice and Solicitor General - Operating Expense

Ministry of Justice and Solicitor General – Operating Expense
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating Expense
Resolution and Court Administration Services 200 195 184 163 157
Legal Services 56 54 49 41 38
Alberta Crown Prosecution Service 103 105 109 114 117
Justice Services 176 169 165 160 160
Public Security 522 531 520 518 527
Correctional Services 289 289 270 268 268
Alberta Human Rights 8 7 7 7 7
Motor Vehicle Accident Claims 31 31 31 31 31
Victims of Crime Fund 43 43 33 28 28
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_mojasgoe-tb
Labour and Immigration

The Ministry of Labour and Immigration focuses on supporting job creators,
building and developing a strong and diverse workforce, promoting safe, fair
and healthy workplaces, and attracting skilled workers and entrepreneurs from
across Canada and the world to Alberta to support economic growth and
diversification.
The ministry’s operating budget is $219 million. While the budget is decreasing
to $206 million by 2022-23, this is only a decrease of one per cent from
2018-19 actual operating spending. The budget supports the following
initiatives:
• $9 million over three years beginning in 2020-21 to implement the First
Responders and Heroes Fund platform commitments.
• $2.5 million to support the foreign qualification recognition activities of the
Alberta Advantage Immigration Strategy in 2019-20, including establishing
the Fairness for Newcomers Office.
Eliminating the Summer Temporary Employment Program (STEP) after
the 2019 program year saves about $32 million over four years. Employers
and youth will continue to be supported by existing programs and services.
Reductions to various grant programs will save $45 million over four years.
Administrative savings, including eliminating vacant positons will save a further
$9 million over four years.

In accordance with the legislation, a review of the Workers’ Compensation
Act will be completed. The review is expected to include all Workers’
Compensation Board related entities, such as the Workers’ Compensation
Board, the Fair Practices Office, the Medical Panels Office and the Appeals
Commission for Alberta Workers’ Compensation.
Ministry of Labour and Immigration - Operating Expense

Ministry
(millions ofof Labour and Immigration – Operating Expense
dollars)
Operating Expense
Workforce Strategies 116 113 102 106 102
Safe, Fair and Healthy Workplaces 67 73 76 74 74
Labour Relations Board 4 4 4 4 4
Appeals Commission for Alberta Workers' Compensation 13 13 13 13 13
Medical Panels Office for Alberta Workers' Compensation 1 1 1 1 1
Fair Practices Office 3 10 7 7 7
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_molaioe-tb
Municipal Affairs
The Ministry of Municipal Affairs helps municipalities provide well-managed,
collaborative and accountable local government. The ministry also provides
funding, establishes construction and maintenance standards, and manages
public lands. The ministry’s operating expense budget is $240 million, a 9 per
cent reduction from $263 million in 2018-19. Operating expenses are expected
to decrease to $222 million, or by 15.5 per cent, in 2022-23 compared to
2018-19.
The majority of ministry savings come from a 25 per cent reduction in the
Municipalities had $17 billion in
Grants in Place of Taxes (GIPOT) program in 2019-20 and a further
reserves as of December 31, 2018.
25 per cent reduction in 2020-21. Total savings are $81 million over four years.
Funding will be reduced for the Alberta Community Partnership, saving
$1.5 million a year for four years.
As identified by the MacKinnon Panel, Alberta provides significantly more
grant support to municipalities when compared with other provinces. Capital
grants to municipalities consist of a quarter of all provincial capital spending,
approximately 20 per cent higher than the national average. Budget 2019
addresses this spending, and as recommended by the MacKinnon Panel, we are
ensuring the funds provided to municipalities are used in a way that aligns with
provincial priorities.
Alberta is the only province that accepts population numbers from a municipal
census to allocate municipal grants. Given that only a handful of municipalities
conduct a census every year, shifting to population estimates will result in
more consistent and timely information about Alberta’s population and a fairer
allocation of grants.

Figure 27: Per capita transfers to Municipalities (2019/10)11
Municipal operating funding is Grants to Municipalities – Jurisdictional Comparison
provided by various ministries Per Capita (person)
and includes:
• Family and Community Support $500
Services grants are being $450 Weighted Average = $357
maintained. $400
• Policing grants are maintained $350
and will be informed by the $300
$250
Justice and Solicitor
$200
General review.
$150
• Grants in Place of Taxes are $100
declining by 25 per cent $50
(or $24 million by 2020-21). $0
• Library Service grants are BC AB SK MN ON QB NB NS PE NL
maintained at current levels.
Source: Provincial Territorial (Municipal) Officials Committee, Alberta Treasury Board and Finance and
• Alberta 911 and Alberta Alberta Municipal Affairs Calculations.
Community Partnership
programs are maintained at Source: Provincial Territorial (Municipal) Officials Committee, Alberta
current levels. Treasury Board and Finance and Alberta Municipal Affairs Calculations.
Budget 2019 proposes that the use of population estimates will begin in 2021.
• The Municipal Sustainability
Initiative (operating grants)
Pdf named:
Annual Fig-27_pcttm.pdf
estimates will be based on a methodology used in other jurisdictions,
is maintained. and will be produced by the Government of Alberta in collaboration with
• The low income transit support Statistics Canada.
pilot is prolonged to support Changes to municipal funding in Budget 2019 maintain Alberta’s strong
vulnerable Albertans
support for Alberta municipalities while moving closer to a level of per capita
($9.5 million per year).
(capital and operating) support that is more in line with other provinces. More
• Total operating funding to
municipalities is reducing by information is provided in the Capital Plan.
six per cent over four years.
Ministry of Municipal Affairs - Operating Expense

Ministry
(millions of of Municipal Affairs – Operating Expense
dollars)
Operating Expense
Municipal Services and Legislation 9 10 10 10 10
Municipal Assessments and Grant Administration 26 24 25 23 22
Municipal Sustainability Initiative 29 30 30 30 -
Local Government Fiscal Framework - - - - 30
Grants in Place of Taxes 54 45 30 30 30
Alberta Community Partnership 18 17 17 17 17
Public Safety 14 15 14 15 15
Alberta Emergency Management Agency 35 33 33 33 33
Quasi-Judicial Boards 7 6 6 6 6
Library Services 37 37 37 37 37
Municipal Cannabis Transition Program 11 - - - -
Safety Codes Council 14 15 15 15 15
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_momaoe-tb

Service Alberta
Service Alberta is the ministry responsible for such services as registries, land
titles, consumer protection and the Alberta Queen’s Printer. The ministry works
to modernize program and service delivery to meet emerging needs, and it
administers government’s Information Technology infrastructure.
Budget 2019 provides Service Alberta with $538 million in operating expense
that will decrease to $469 million by 2022-23, a 15 per cent reduction
compared to 2018-19.
The majority of ministry savings come from implementing the new Enterprise
Resource Planning (ERP) system and from transformational activities and
operational efficiencies. In contrast to good project management, the previous
government did not build in any contingency amount should the large project
not meet timelines.
Government will ensure its commitments to Albertans are kept by expanding
online services. This includes introducing self-serve options that will automate
procedures and reduce the need for staff.
Some changes will result in easier interactions with the government, such
as corporate registry online user management. Operational efficiencies are
expected to save approximately $46 million by 2022-23, and transformational
activities will generate another $55 million by 2022-23. Government priorities
partially offset these savings.
Ministry of Service Alberta - Operating Expense

Ministry of Service Alberta – Operating Expense
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating Expense
Land Titles 18 11 11 11 11
Motor Vehicles 12 13 13 13 13
Other Registry Services 10 10 10 10 10
Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy 12 12 12 12 12
Consumer Awareness and Advocacy 22 20 20 20 20
Utilities Consumer Advocate 6 8 7 7 7
Enterprise and Shared Services 444 437 385 379 369
Alberta First Responders Radio Communications System 21 17 17 17 17
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_mosaoe-tb

Transportation
The Ministry of Transportation promotes a vital and diverse economy by
managing transportation safely, supporting municipalities with public
transportation and water/wastewater facilities, enabling market access through
effective transportation systems, and preserving and developing the provincial
highway network and water management infrastructure.
Budget 2019 provides $411 million in operating expense, declining steadily
to $372 million by 2022-23. This is a 16 per cent reduction compared to
2018-19. Savings of $137 million will come from reducing road maintenance
services, which will be monitored to ensure safety is not affected. Reducing
roadway preservation activities over four years will save a further $63 million.
Spending to maintain park roads and water management structures will be
reduced, realizing $18 million in savings over four years.
To live within our means, Transportation will explore no-cost social media
advertising options for traffic safety, and identify administrative efficiencies.
Administrative efficiencies will be achieved by consolidating and reducing
operations in Traffic Safety Services, and limiting Transportation Safety Board
discretionary spending. The ministry is also reviewing the driver examiner
program that moved to an in-house, government-controlled model from the
private sector in late 2018-19.
Transportation will continue with the Mandatory Entry Level Commercial
Training (MELT) and Pre-Entry Program for New National Safety Code
Carriers, along with the Driver Examiner program until the results of the
review are known. This will cost $19 million in 2019-20. Safety is a priority, so
Alberta’s transportation corridor will be maintained.
Ministry of Transportation - Operating Expense

Ministry of Transportation – Operating Expense
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating Expense
Program Services and Support 26 25 23 22 22
Traffic Safety Services 36 46 32 25 25
Alberta Transportation Safety Board 2 2 2 2 2
Provincial Highway Maintenance and Preservation 367 327 310 315 313
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_motoe-tb

The Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance consists of the Department of
Treasury Board and Finance, together with Communications and Public
Engagement, the Public Service Commission and nine provincial agencies.
In Budget 2019, the ministry’s operating budget is $1.8 billion, a 17 per cent
reduction from 2018-19. This will be reduced 36 per cent in 2022-23 to
$1.4 billion compared to 2018-19.
Savings will be realized with some reorganization and efficiencies:
• Savings are expected from government financial agencies, including the
Alberta Risk Management Fund and Alberta Investment Management
Corporation (AIMCo).
• Changes by the previous government will be reversed to control
administrative costs and enhance governance provisions for public sector
pension plans. Plans will continue to be administered by the Alberta
Pensions Services Corporation, and invested by AIMCo.
• Alberta Capital Finance Authority responsibilities will move to the
department to realize operational efficiencies while retaining the policies to
make low cost loans to local authorities.
• Strategic direction to ATB Financial will be strengthened so Albertans
receive more value from this financial institution. This includes clarifying
the organization’s mandate to manage its business in a commercial and cost
effective manner and avoid undue risk of loss while earning risk adjusted
rates of return similar to, or better than, comparable financial institutions.
• Process improvements and new service delivery models are being
implemented to generate significant savings in Communications and Public
Engagement (CPE) and the Public Service Commission (PSC), $14 million
over three years and $18 million over four years, respectively.
Eliminating the carbon tax consumer rebates will reduce expenses by

$1.9 billion over four years. Following the principle of shifting back to a
low-rate, broad-based tax system, the Scientific Research and Experimental
Development Tax Credit will be eliminated, saving $214 million over
four years. (See the Tax Section on pages 144-145 for more information).
Key cost drivers include increases to legal and statutory requirements, including
requirements for the Corporate Income Tax Provision for Doubtful Accounts,
Interest Payments on Corporate Tax Refunds, and Teachers’ Pre-1992 Pension
Payments resulting in a $286 million expenditure increase over four years.

Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance - Operating Expense
Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance – Operating Expense
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Operating Expense
Budget Development and Reporting 6 7 6 6 6
Fiscal Planning and Economic Analysis 6 6 6 6 6
Investment, Treasury and Risk Management 596 533 525 523 523
Office of the Controller 7 8 8 8 8
Tax and Revenue Management 36 41 38 38 38
Financial Sector and Pensions 178 177 176 176 176
Provincial Bargaining Coordination Office 2 2 2 2 2
Red Tape Reduction - 1 3 3 3
Public Service Commission 70 72 66 66 66
Communications and Public Engagement 64 35 32 32 32
Gaming 44 50 46 46 46
Carbon Tax – Consumer Rebates 523 180 - - -
Teachers' Pre-1992 Pensions – Payments 479 486 488 488 487
Alberta Family Employment Tax Credit 159 161 41 - -
Scientific Research and Experimental Development Tax Credits 66 50 - - -
Corporate Income Tax Allowance Provision (46) 15 15 15 15
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_motbafoe-tb

Public Sector Compensation
In 2018-19, Alberta spent $26.9 billion on public sector compensation,
MLAs have led by example by
representing 55 per cent of the Alberta government’s operating budget. This is
taking a five per cent salary
a common cost pressure in delivering public services. reduction, while the Premier has
However, as the MacKinnon Panel highlighted, compensation across public taken a 10 per cent salary cut.
sector professions is higher than comparable large provinces, despite Alberta’s
lower cost of living “measured by a comparison of provincial taxes and utilities
in key cities in each of the provinces” (MacKinnon Panel). According to
Statistics Canada, Alberta had the highest total compensation for all public
sector jobs per capita in 2018, compared to key comparator provinces of
Quebec, British Columbia and Ontario.
Similarly, with some exceptions, workers in many occupations across the
Alberta Public Service are compensated as much as 20 per cent higher than
the Ontario-West average, a comparator used to reflect the most common
interprovincial migration patterns.
Albertans can no longer afford to support a public sector that is so much more
expensive than other provinces. Aligning public sector compensation levels
with the average of comparable provinces over time will maintain strong public
pdf name: B19-fp-exp_tcfajpc.pdf Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Expense
services while furthering government’s ability to maintain a high level of service
delivery to Albertans through predictable and responsible spending.
Total compensation for all jobs per capita (2018)
Total Compensation For All Jobs (2018)
per capita
$5,600 $5,480
$5,400
$5,200 $5,075
$5,000
$4,800 $4,661 $4,631

$4,600
$4,400
$4,200
Note: Total Compensation for all jobs includes Government educational services, Government health
services and Provincial and territorial government services.
Source: Statistics Canada Table: 36-10-0480-01 and Table: 17-10-0005-01.
Notes: Total Compensation for all jobs includes Government educational services, Government health services a
Source(s): Statistics Canada Table: 36-10-0480-01 and Table: 17-10-0005-01.
pdf named: B19-FP-EXP_tcfajpc.pdf

The following table outlines the budgets for compensation that are contained in
pdf named: B19-FP-EXP_sabts.pdf Budget 2019. As shown, public sector compensation
Budget 2019 will decrease
- Fiscal 2.1 perSection
Plan, Expense cent
by 2022-23 compared to 2018-19.
Salaries and Benefits Targets Summary

(in millions)
Compensation for Alberta’s Public Sector
(in millions) % Change
From
Comparable 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2018-19
2018-19 Actual Estimates Target Target Target Actual
Alberta Health Services 8,321 8,327 8,299 8,276 8,237 -1.0%

School Boards 6,262 6,323 6,306 6,317 6,318 0.9%
Post-Secondary Institutions 3,505 3,406 3,349 3,292 3,231 -7.8%
Alberta Public Service (Departments)* 2,904 2,932 2,767 2,696 2,684 -7.6%
Other Government Agencies 645 620 571 571 571 -11.5%
Sub-total 21,637 21,607 21,292 21,152 21,040 -2.8%
Physician Compensation and Development 5,213 5,242 5,228 5,230 5,258 0.9%
Total 26,850 26,849 26,519 26,383 26,298 -2.1%
* Includes salaries for Disaster spending in 2018-19 Actual and 2019-20 Estimates
* Includes salaries for Disaster spending in 2018-19 Actual and 2019-20 target - 552
-2.1%
pdf named: B19-FP-EXP_sabts.pdf
Budget 2019 calls for tight controls on public sector compensation and contains
full width table no increases in compensation for the public service.
Expected position reductions for the year are outlined on page 190. Reductions
– mainly through attrition – are expected by 2022-23. Compensation
reductions are commensurate with the expected FTE reduction.
Overall savings of $552 million are expected through staff reductions and by
simplifying service delivery methods. Further reductions may be necessary to
accommodate for awards through arbitration in 2019-20.
With the principles of living within our means, government will reduce
employer contributions for the Management Employment Pension Plan
(MEPP), saving approximately $65 million over the next four years. This will
not affect benefits but will reduce the costs for government contributions.
Alberta Public Service – Compensation Outliers

In many cases, Alberta Public Service workers are compensated significantly
higher than the Ontario-West average (a comparator used based on the most
common inter-provincial migration patterns). Some representative rates for
various occupations in 2018 ranged from 3.5 per cent higher for service
workers, five per cent higher for correctional peace officers, and 18 per cent
higher for policy analysts. Correcting compensation outliers through a period
of restraint, in order to better reflect the Ontario-West average, will maintain
Alberta’s competitiveness while furthering the government’s commitment to live
within its means.

pdf named: Budget 2019 - Fiscal Plan, Expense Section
Average Gross FFS Payment > $60,000 for All Physicians

Physicians’ Fee-For-Service Payments (Fiscal Years: 2006-07 to 2015-16)
FFS Payments $
2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013
$450,000
$413,035 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017
$400,000
$350,000
$316,402
$302,824 $305,452
$297,130
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000 10.3% 26.5% 5.4% 40.9% 16.8%

Growth over Growth over Growth over Growth over Growth over
$150,000
BC AB ON QC Comparator
Average
Source: Alberta Health completed analysis of CIHI National Health Expenditure Database.
Physician Compensation
Government is prepared to negotiate with the AMA to limit the growth in
physician compensation costs. The MacKinnon Panel noted that physicians’
fee-for-service payments are significantly higher in Alberta compared to
other provinces. In 2016-17 the average fee-for-service earning for all Alberta
physicians was $413,000.That is $107,000 or 35 per cent higher than the
Source:
average CIHI National
in comparator Physician
provinces. Database
Alberta also has among the highest number
of physicians per capita, but they are not practicing necessarily where needed.
pdf named: B19-FP-EXP_pc.pdf
To that end, government plans to amend the Health Care Insurance Act and
regulation to give the Minister of Health the authority to place controls on
where physicians practice.
Nurses
Alberta has the highest hourly salary range for Registered Nurses, Head Nurses
/ Supervisors and Graduate Nurses. For example Alberta’s starting hourly salary
rates for Registered Nurses is 33 per cent higher than Quebec, and 11 per cent
and nine per cent for Ontario and British Columbia, respectively. (Source:
KPMG – August 15, 2019 report)
Alberta nurses also have benefit provisions in their contracts not in or
uncommon to other Canadian nursing agreements. Among these include
annual lump sum payments on top of wages and benefits, Designated Days of
Rest and overtime rates that are generally more generous than peers in other
provinces.

Expense_charts, graphs, tables/PhysCompensations 10/9/2019/ 7:10 PM
pdf named: B19_FP_EXP_23tmc.pdf Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Expen
Teachers’ Total Maximum Compensation
Compensation
per Year
Salary per Year Pension per Year Benefits per Year
$140,000
$120,000
$9,865 $9,837
$11,672 $11,876
$100,000 $6,908
$10,363
$80,000
$60,000
$97,676 $97,481
$40,000 $86,356
$20,000
$-
Alberta British Columbia Ontario
Note: Alberta benefits includes 3.1% of salary for the pre-1992 Teachers Pension Plan liability
Sources: Teacher Maximum Total Compensation: Cross-Jurisdictional Analysis, 2017-18 from the Ministry of
Education. Teacher Pension Plan liability history provided by Government of Alberta
Teachers
Alberta teacher total compensation is among the highest in Canada which
includes 3.1 per cent additional pay as a result of government assuming
100 per cent of the pre-1992 Teachers Pension Plan liability, valued at
$7.7 billion as of March 31, 2019.

KPMG -McKinnonRep_Graphs_EXP.xlsx/Figure 23 10/16/2019 3:01 P
Streamlining Government Processes
Operational Efficiencies – Transforming Financial Services

The MacKinnon Panel reported that the provincial government has spent an
average of $4.8 billion a year on goods and services, and contracts. The panel
believes a well-managed procurement process and streamlined processes could
help control costs.
Treasury Board and Finance, in concert with Service Alberta, is continuing
to lead the transformation of government’s financial services to maximize the
benefits of new technologies. This modernization will strengthen government’s
financial management through more efficient transactions and improved
supports such as enhanced analytics, reporting, budgeting and decision-
making.
Central to these changes, Treasury Board and Finance will have stronger
accountability and authority to set and manage financial practices, policies
and processes across departments. This applies to such functions as revenue
management, treasury, budgeting and monitoring, compliance, reporting,
policy and governance. Increasing the use of centralized services will take
advantage of economies of scale and support such functions as procurement,
accounts payable, accounts receivable, expense claims and asset management
accounting.
Finance branches are increasingly taking a one-government approach to
financial operations, strategic management such as departmental budgeting and
analytics, and program support such as grant administration, procurement and
payments. This approach will help realize operational efficiencies so government
is living within our means and delivering corporate service functions in the
most cost effect manner.
Cash and Investment Management

Three main components in Budget 2019 enhance government processes related
to cash and investments.
Fund dissolution
Dissolving the following funds will reduce organizational complexity, clarify
Fund dissolution reduces debt
accountability and decision-making, and better manage cash to reduce servicing costs by $13 million while
borrowing requirements and debt servicing costs: government continues to honour
• Access to the Future Fund program spending.
• Alberta Cancer Prevention Legacy Fund

• Environmental Protection and Enhancement Fund
• Historic Resources Fund
• Lottery Fund

Dissolving these funds decreases projected borrowing by about $650 million,
saving roughly $13 million in debt servicing costs per year. Dissolving these
funds does not impact intended programs’ spending, which are incorporated
into ministry budgets and funded from the General Revenue Fund.
Use of Reserves
The government is making changes to help its cash management and reduce
debt servicing costs. The Alberta Social Housing Corporation (ASHC) has
accumulated a cash reserve balance of $425 million as of March 31, 2019.
To effectively utilize the ASHC’s cash reserve, this balance will be used to fund
$198 million of the ASHC’s 2019-20 operating and capital requirements and
pay off its $50 million outstanding debt owed to CMHC. These changes will
draw down the cash reserve balance and reduce borrowing needs and associated
debt servicing costs of government.
School boards are also expected to use reserves prudently to deliver services.
Increase Investment in AIMCo

To build a “made in Alberta” portfolio for healthy public investment, the
volume of funds invested must be big enough to support optimum earnings
and minimize costs. To maximize the funds under investment, government
intends to reverse the option of public sector pension plans leaving AIMCo as
a fund manager. Moreover, the Alberta Teachers Retirement Fund, Workers’
Compensation Board and Alberta Health Services will be expected to transfer
funds to AIMCo for management, reducing redundant administration.
AIMCo is expected to provide maximum returns to its clients, and processes
will be expanded to support broader agency involvement.
Creation of a Transferable Supply Vote

Government is implementing a recommendation from the MacKinnon Panel
by amending the Financial Administration Act and the Financial Planning
and Transparency Act to enhance efficiency, transparency, accountability and
flexibility. Amendments will create a transferable supply vote for disasters and
other contingencies, and repeal the 1 per cent rule that limits un-budgeted
in-year operating spending increases. A transfer of spending authority from
the transferable supply vote to a department would only be allowed for a
public emergency or disaster, or for an unanticipated priority that is in the
public interest and cannot be delayed to the next budget. A spending authority
transfer would be approved by Order in Council, enhancing transparency and
holding government accountable.
Previous governments significantly under-budgeted emergency and disaster
funding at $200 million a year. Natural events risk disrupting a financial plan
to balance. Though disasters are difficult to predict, Budget 2019 contains a
significant increase for these unexpected events – $680 million in the current
year for wildfires, emergencies and other events, then $750 million per year
after that as the maximum recommended by the panel.

Program Review
Acting on a MacKinnon Panel recommendation, government is developing a
framework to support a comprehensive approach to program reviews, focusing
on program effectiveness and efficiency and ensuring services are in the public
interest. The goal is to identify ongoing service innovation and improvement,
rather than implementing a one-time cost saving measure. Procurement
innovation and modernization will also form a component of program review.
It is expected this process will identify savings opportunities for future fiscal
plans.
Balancing the budget so that we live within our means is an important step
in making Alberta competitive, bringing back jobs, defending Alberta’s
independence and ensuring sustainable public services for the coming
generations.

BLANK PAGE
122
BUDGET 2019
Fiscal Plan
Capital Plan
123
Table of Contents
2019 Capital Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

Municipal Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Other Reductions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
Roads and Bridges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
Protect Quality Health Care. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
Capital Maintenance and Renewal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Renewing Educational Infrastructure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Service Delivery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
Family, Social Supports and Housing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Capital Plan Details. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
124 Capital Plan | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

2019 Capital Plan
Alberta’s fiscal reality and the need for long-term financial sustainability is
reflected in the Budget 2019 Capital Plan. The Plan introduces a moderated yet
comprehensive long-term spending strategy. Albertans can be assured it involves
responsible investing and continues to support economic growth, as well as
critical ongoing, key public services such as health and education.
The MacKinnon Panel highlights that Alberta spends more per capita, or
per Albertan, than its provincial counterparts and contains a number of
recommendations related to capital spending. Government heard this message.
This Plan brings capital spending into greater alignment with other provinces
over time. In doing so, the Plan sets capital spending at a level that will help
put the province’s finances on a sustainable footing. At the same time, it
honours previous commitments to build and maintain key infrastructure
projects while taking into account learnings from the MacKinnon Panel.
The Plan honours government’s platform commitments. It includes: an
The 2019 Capital Plan invests
increase to the Land Trust Grant Program and investments for planning Big
$24.2 billion over four years.
Island Provincial Park and redeveloping and expanding services at Hope
Mission. Other continuing projects include the Calgary Cancer Centre, a new
Edmonton hospital, the Grande Prairie Hospital, province-wide school projects
and Edmonton and Calgary light rail transit (LRT).
In addition to providing overall direction to the Capital Plan, the MacKinnon
Panel also provided specific recommendations on how to allocate capital
funding to municipalities and for capital maintenance and renewal. These
types of program changes outline the need for legislation to guide the capital
planning process.
Through upcoming legislation for infrastructure planning, government will
outline how it will prioritize and report on capital spending. This will include
the commitment to publish an annual Alberta infrastructure report as well as
a 20-year strategic capital plan. A strong governance framework allows for the
methodical approach to carefully consider the addition of future projects to the
Capital Plan and their value to Albertans.
The 2019 Capital Plan invests $24.2 billion over four years. Municipal support
accounts for the largest portion of the Capital Plan at 32 per cent, followed by
capital maintenance and renewal at 17 per cent, and health care and roads and
bridges both at 13 per cent.
Capital Plan | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 125

pdf name: B19_FP_CP_b2019cp.pdf Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Capital Plan
Budget 2019 Capital Plan

Budget 2019 – Capital Plan
Protect Quality
Capital Health Care
Maintenance and 13%
Renewal
17%
Road and Bridges
13%
Renewing
Educational
Infrastructure
9%
Service Delivery
6%
Public Safety and

Emergency
Services
3%
Agriculture and
Municipal Support
Natural Resources
32%
2%
Sports and Family, Social Supports
Recreation Skills for Jobs and Housing
1% 2% 2%
Note: Excludes schools, universities, colleges, hospitals (SUCH) sector – self financed investment.
pdf name: B19_FP_CP_b2018ab2019pf.pdf Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Capital Plan

pdf name: B19_FP_CP_b2019cp.pdf
While maintaining many prior year commitments, this Capital Plan will see
Chart 1: Budget
provincial 2018
spending onand Budget
capital 2019byProvincial
decrease over $2.9Funding ($millions)
billion between 2019-20
and 2022-23, or roughly 12 per cent compared to the 2018 Capital Plan.
Budget 2018 and Budget 2019 Capital Plan Provincial Funding
Budget 2018 Budget 2019

$ millions
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
Note: Includes schools, universities, colleges, hospitals (SUCH) sector – self financed investment
Note: Includes Schools, Universities, Colleges, Hospitals (SUCH) Sector - Self Financed Inves
https://bud.tbfsp.gov.ab.ca/Confidential/Confidential Docs/Fiscal Plan 2019/Capital Plan/Charts/
126 Capital Plan Charts for Publishing name: B19_FP_CP_b2018ab2019pf.pdf
pdfOct.16/Pie Chart Capital Plan | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 2310/16/2019/3:52 PM
Government will use federal infrastructure funding from the Investing in
The MacKinnon Panel
Canada Infrastructure Program (ICIP) to more effectively manage costs and recommended to bring Alberta’s
support the most critical and current needs. This means Capital Plan reductions net public capital stock in line with
will be largely offset by increases in federal flow-through funding for projects the average per capita capital stock
such as the Calgary and Edmonton LRTs. These federal infrastructure-related in the other provinces over the
funds increase the size of the Capital Plan, but that is balanced by an equivalent next ten years as part of balanced
budget plans and long-term fiscal
transfer also appearing in provincial revenue.
sustainability.
With the planned reductions, the net book value of the province’s capital assets
per capita will start to fall, as recommended by the MacKinnon Panel. The
net book value of capital assets takes into account the existing stock of capital
assets, as well as new investments and amortization (see Schedule 3 in the
Fiscal Plan Tables). Capital assets will peak in 2020-21, at $12,341 per capita
asname:
pdf major projects from prior plans are completed, and
B19_FP_CP_pca.pdf then
Budget will
2019 fallPlan
Fiscal as Capital
capitalPlan
investments outlined in this Plan start to grow slower than population growth.
Chart 2: Provincial Capital Assets ($, per capita)

Provincial Capital Assets
$ per capita
12,600
12,400
12,200
12,000
11,800
11,600
11,400
11,200
11,000
Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
pdf name: B19_FP_CP_pca.pdf

Government will explore alternative financing options, including public‑private
partnerships, for priority infrastructure projects when there is a solid business
case and value-for-money can be achieved for taxpayers. Transportation,
continuing care and school projects will be evaluated for the potential to
enhance the use of capital funding by establishing a partnership or alternative
arrangement that will better leverage tax dollars used in infrastructure
investments. Strategic partnerships with the private sector will contribute to
providing the necessary services to Albertans as effectively as possible.
Government will also examine leveraging land for the construction of
affordable housing infrastructure through partnerships with civil society
organizations and private industry. This helps to ensure affordable housing for
specialized needs is maintained and increased to address growing demand.

Municipal Support
The MacKinnon Panel recommended that the province examine its

legislative framework for capital funding to municipalities with the
goals of:
• aligning funding to provincial goals and priorities and fiscal capacity,
while further considering funding formulas that require municipalities
to share more in the costs of major projects;
• adjusting its allocation formulas for grants to municipalities in line
with the policy of bringing Alberta’s provincial and municipal per
capita capital stock in line with the comparator provinces;
• establishing accountability mechanisms and performance measures to
monitor the delivery of municipal programs and services and value for
money spent, so citizens have the ability to constructively evaluate their
local government and their use of tax dollars; and
• making better use of federal infrastructure funding, through the ICIP,
as a means of more effectively managing the costs of the Capital Plan.
The MacKinnon Panel found that Alberta’s capital stock per capita was
19 per cent above the provincial average, but municipal governments’ stock
was 81 per cent above the average. Moreover, Alberta’s capital grants to
municipalities were found to be over 20 per cent higher than the national
average. Given the province’s current fiscal capacity, the province can no
longer afford to provide the level of funding that municipalities received in
the past.
This Capital Plan reflects the following:
• The Municipal Sustainability Initiative (MSI) funding will be reduced by
$94 million and $142 million in 2020-21 and 2021-22, respectively. By
starting reductions in 2020-21, municipalities will have time to adjust.
• A new Local Government Fiscal Framework will replace the existing
MSI/Basic Municipal Transportation Grant and the City Charters Fiscal
Framework Act. The base-year funding for the new framework will be set
to $860 million in 2022-23. This means the funding for Edmonton and
Calgary will be rebased to $455 million, from $500 million and funding for
other municipalities will be set at $405 million in 2022-23. This funding
framework will see these transfers grow at half the rate of provincial revenue
growth.
• The province will maintain $3 billion for Edmonton and Calgary LRT
projects. However, part of the Capital Plan reductions come from adjusting
cash flows related to this funding. Most of the provincial funding will be
provided after 2022-23. The adjusted provincial cash flows are a more
prudent and realistic disbursement of funds for these major projects. They

reflect the province’s ability to pay and minimize the need to borrow when
funds are not available.
The $236 million reduction to MSI represents a 9 per cent reduction over the
three remaining years of the program. The new framework adjustment amounts
to a reduction from current agreements.
Provincial funding to municipalities is set to reach $1.2 billion in 2019-20.
This is $208 million lower than in 2018-19, primarily due to the winding
down of the GreenTRIP capital grant program and reductions of $20 million
in operating grants to municipalities (see page 110 of the Expense section).
Provincial funding will average $1.4 billion between 2020-21 and 2022-23.
Total funding to municipalities, including federal flow-through funding,
is forecast at $2.1 billion in 2019-20 and will average $2.1 billion between
2020‑21 and 2022-23.
Alberta has one taxpayer. When hard-working Albertans see their incomes
shrink and struggle to make ends meet, they have to face their fiscal realities
– and so do governments.
These changes to municipal funding will lower per capita funding levels and
put them in line with averages outlined by the MacKinnon Panel. Between
2019-20 and 2022-23, provincial capital and operating grants per capita will
average around $299 per capita. However, once federal funds are taken into
account, the average per capita transfers will exceed $469 per capita. These
averages include provincial funding for the Edmonton and Calgary LRT
me: B19_FP_CP_mf.pdf
projects. This funding is expected to rise after 2022-23, increasingBudget 2019 Fiscal Plan Capital Plan
per capita
funding levels over time.
Chart 3: Municipal Funding ($, per capita)
Municipal Funding
$ per capita
1,000
Provincial Support Federal Flow Through
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
Note: Provincial support includes both capital and operating grants. In 2017-18, government advanced
funds from 2018-19 and 2019-20.
pdf name: B19_FP_CP_mf.pdf
Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance.

Other Reductions
The Plan also reflects decisions from the government’s program and project
review. Many initiatives were removed or reduced, because they were too costly
and did not provide the value that Albertans expect. Changes include:
• Removal of the capital grants for the Petrochemical Feedstock Infrastructure
Program ($800 million).
• Removal of the capital grants for the Partial Upgrading Program
($215 million).
• Removal of the Edmonton Clinical Laboratory Hub project ($579 million).
• Removal of the carbon tax funded Alberta Community Transit Fund and
other short-term carbon tax funded programs. Programs such as the Light
Rail Transit, the carbon capture and storage and other large scale projects
have been maintained.
• Removal of the Provincial Operations Centre project ($122 million).
• Ending the Alberta Community Resilience Program, after 2020-21.
Roads and Bridges

Building and improving roads and bridges connects people and resources,
enabling commerce, tourism, and community building throughout Alberta .
Strong transportation infrastructure is key to creating an efficient and robust
economy . Just-in-time global supply chains mean that to be competitive, our
Alberta-based businesses need to get their goods to market quickly and cheaply .
Significant investment – $2 .9 billion over the next four years or 13 per cent
of the total plan – is dedicated to transportation networks and roads in the
2019 Capital Plan . Among many other projects, the Plan commits funding
of $77 million to construct Highway 1A upgrades through the Stoney First
Nation and $210 million for Deerfoot Trail upgrades .
The Strategic Transportation Infrastructure Program will continue to
provide financial assistance to municipalities for total provincial support of
$84 million . Continuing this funding will promote economic growth and will
improve and rehabilitate local transportation infrastructure such as local
bridges, community airports and resource roads for communities .
Protect Quality Health Care

Health care is one of the most critical services that the province provides . These
investments provide front-line health care workers with the equipment and
spaces they need to keep Albertans healthy . At the same time, these funds
ensure that Alberta’s health facilities remain relevant to the changing demands
in health care . Government commits $2 .9 billion in the Capital Plan for health
care facilities throughout the province . The Plan continues to support projects
such as the Calgary Cancer Centre, the Norwood Long Term Care Facility in

Edmonton, and the Grande Prairie Hospital. The Plan includes planning funds
for potential future projects such as redevelopment of the Red Deer Regional
Hospital and the proposed Brain Centre at the University of Alberta.
The Plan defers the proposed Child and Adolescent Mental Health building at
the Royal Alexandra Hospital and the four-year budget for the new Edmonton
hospital has been adjusted with the opening delayed to 2030, more consistent
with the expected growth in demand for acute care beds in the region.
Capital Maintenance and Renewal

The MacKinnon Panel
Past investments and current assets allow the government to provide Albertans
recommended that the province
with essential services throughout the province. Infrastructure is a long-term stabilize and rationalize the
investment. Assets must serve many generations. The maintenance and renewal allocation of Capital Maintenance
of roads, schools, and hospitals that Albertans depend on extends their life and Renewal (CMR) spending and
and performance, and is less expensive than building new. Maintaining and give priority to CMR in the areas
improving the infrastructure we already have is a priority and is a significant of greatest need in future capital
expenditure decisions.
portion of the capital budget.
For this reason, the MacKinnon Panel highlights the need for stable funding
and focuses on improved Capital Maintenance and Renewal (CMR) strategies.
Budget 2019 starts to address this critical aspect of capital spending by
maintaining current CMR funding levels. Based on the MacKinnon Panel
recommendations, government is conducting a comprehensive review of the
CMR program to ensure predictable and sufficient funding for infrastructure
maintenance and renewal. CMR accounts for $3.6 billion, or about
17 per cent, of the capital budget.
Renewing Educational Infrastructure

Government is committed to renewing educational infrastructure across the
province. Delivering quality education is a top priority. Prioritizing educational
capacity and recognizing the importance of good infrastructure are critical
to the overall success of Alberta’s education system and contribute to the
economic growth and prosperity of our province. The 2019 Capital Plan invests
$1.8 billion into construction of new schools and the modernization of existing
schools across the province. This addresses the need for additional student
capacity and ensures that schools meet students’ educational needs. This
funding allows school projects to continue over the next five years and includes
$123 million for approximately 250 new modular classrooms and $397 million
over five years for 25 new and modernized school projects, to address student
population pressures.
When announced, school project status for projects located across the province
will be posted online at: https://projects.alberta.ca/.

Service Delivery
To support more efficient and productive service delivery, the Plan invests in
updating government technology systems. Government can better streamline
processes, reduce regulatory constraints, increase service capacity and allow
more flexible service delivery to Albertans at a lower cost.
In health care, government is investing $17 million in the Enabling New
Models of Care. This system will support digital transformation, and drive
efficiency and improvement in health care business processes and practices,
particularly for providers such as physicians and pharmacists.
In energy, the Plan makes an additional $5.3 million commitment to the
Integrated Decision Approach (IDA). This will support a technology-enabled
business process that will significantly increase project approval time through
risk-informed decision making. IDA will deliver regulatory competitiveness
through improved industry collaboration. Once fully implemented, the system
is estimated to save industry more than $600 million.
In the justice system, the Capital Plan also spends $39 million on the Alberta
eCourts project over six years. This will digitally transform court records
and streamline and standardize court processes. The project will ensure an
effective and timely records system that is responsive to evolving needs of
our justice system. Albertans are expected to save nearly one million visits;
two million hours and over $400 million in expenses over the first five
years, because they will not have to attend a court facility, except for more
substantive matters and trials.
Family, Social Supports and Housing

Government is spending $476 million on seniors, family and community
housing developments and renewal, to provide the assistance and supports
that communities need. Work continues on affordable housing development
and renewal projects. Funding was committed to seven new projects so that
Albertans facing homelessness receive essential support and care wherever
they live. A strong commitment is maintained for the existing Family and
Community Housing Development and Renewal Capital Program, Indigenous
Housing Capital Program and Seniors Housing Development and Renewal
Capital Program in the 2019 Capital Plan.
The Plan supports vulnerable Albertans by spending $38.4 million on
projects that help Alberta’s youth and homeless. These include adding the
Hope Mission and Yellowhead Youth Centre Redevelopment projects to this
year’s Capital Plan.

Other
The Plan supports $463 million for the construction and development of
post-secondary infrastructure. Ongoing projects include the University of
Alberta Dentistry Pharmacy Functional Building Renewal, Keyano College
Campus Upgrades and the University of Calgary MacKimmie Complex.
Sports and recreation projects are funded within the Plan for a four-year total
of $296 million. The Community Facility Enhancement Program receives
continued support, albeit at a reduced rate in the Plan for $100 million,
and will continue to allow for the purchase, construction, renovation, and
upgrade of public-use community facilities throughout the province. The
Heritage Park Society Natural Resources project that was approved in 2018
also continues to be funded in the 2019 Capital Plan however, projects such
as the Reynolds Museum upgrade are provided with a reduced amount of
support as a result of a further review of the project. Other projects include
the upgrades to the Royal Alberta Museum in Edmonton, Royal Tyrrell
Museum of Palaeontology in Drumheller and Vivo for Healthier Generations
centre in Calgary.

pdf named: B19_FP_CP_cpd-1.pdf Budget 2019
Capital Plan Spending
Capital Plan
Capital Details
Plan Details
(millions of
dollars)
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 4-Year
Estimate Target Target Target Total
Municipal Support
Alberta Community Resilience Program (ACRP) 23 20 - - 43
Clean Water and Wastewater Fund (CWWF) 77 20 - - 97
Edmonton and Calgary LRT 151 192 485 569 1,396
Federal Gas Tax Fund 477 244 255 255 1,231
First Nations Water Tie-In Program 18 13 12 10 53
GreenTRIP 125 60 5 - 190
Local Government Fiscal Framework - - - 860 860
Municipal Sustainability Initiative 641 963 897 - 2,501
Municipal Water and Wastewater Program 32 18 27 23 101
New Building Canada – Small Communities Fund 10 - - - 10
Public Transit Infrastructure Fund (PTIF) 138 35 - - 173
Regional Water/Wastewater Projects – Water for Life 40 51 50 50 192
Strategic Transportation Infrastructure Program 22 15 21 25 84
Water Line to Castle Region 3 - - - 3
Total Municipal Support 1,758 1,632 1,753 1,792 6,933
Capital Maintenance and Renewal

Airtanker Base Maintenance 1 1 1 1 3
Fish Culture Capital Maintenance and Renewal Program 11 1 1 1 13
Government Owned Facilities 78 69 74 68 289
Health Facilities 97 110 175 150 533
Information Technology 16 16 16 16 64
Innovation Infrastructure Maintenance 2 2 2 2 9
Post Secondary 12 119 119 119 368
Provincial Parks 26 25 25 25 102
Roads and Bridges 387 371 371 371 1,501
School Facilities 119 119 122 121 480
Seniors Facilities and Housing 40 48 60 60 208
Total Capital Maintenance and Renewal 789 881 965 934 3,569
...continues next page
134
https://bud.tbfsp.gov.ab.ca/Confidential/Confidential Docs/Fiscal Plan 2019/Capital Plan/Charts/ Capital Plan | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23
B19_FP_CP_Details-tables - Oct 16 / Cap Plan Det1 10/17/2019 / 2:21 PM
Capital Plan
Capital Plan Details,
Details, continuedcontinued
(millions of
dollars)
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 4-Year
Protect Quality Health Care

Addictions and Detox Centres 6 1 - - 7
Calgary Cancer Centre 232 265 277 260 1,034
Clinical Information Systems 137 110 47 - 294
Complex Continuing Care Facility (Calgary) 3 21 30 51 104
Continuing Care Beds 28 84 40 32 184
Edmonton Clinical Laboratory Hub 6 - - - 6
Edmonton hospital 8 40 40 150 238
Edson Healthcare Centre 3 1 - - 4
Equipment for Cancer Corridor Projects 3 - - - 3
Foothills Medical Centre Urgent Power Plant Capacity (Calgary) 12 29 7 - 48
Fort McMurray Residential Facility-Based Care Centre (Willow Square) 50 7 - - 57
Grande Prairie Regional Hospital 100 96 19 - 215
Health Facility Project Planning Funds (incl. Misericordia, Royal Alexandra and 3 2 1 1 7
Red Deer Regional hospitals)
High Prairie Health Complex 2 - - - 2
Lloydminster Continuing Care Centre - 5 - - 5
Medical Device Reprocessing Upgrades Program – Phase 1 2 13 18 1 33
Medical Equipment Replacement and Upgrade Program 30 30 30 30 120
Medicine Hat Regional Hospital 9 6 - - 15
Misericordia Community Hospital Modernization Program (Edmonton) 3 23 20 17 63
Northern Lights Regional Health Centre Repairs (Fort McMurray) 10 11 - - 21
Norwood Long Term Care Facility (Edmonton) 39 82 110 97 327
Peter Lougheed Centre Emergency Department, Mental Health Intensive Care 1 4 - - 4
Unit and Laboratory Redevelopment
Provincial Heliports 2 - - - 2
Provincial Pharmacy Central Drug Production and Distribution Centre 3 12 12 24 52
Stollery Children's Hospital Critical Care Program (Edmonton) 7 13 11 - 31
University of Alberta Hospital Brain Centre – Neurosciences Intensive Care - 1 6 6 12
Unit (Edmonton)
Total Protect Quality Health Care 699 853 668 669 2,889

Capital Plan Details, continued

2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 4-Year
Roads and Bridges

Assessment and Support Systems 20 20 20 20 78
City of Edmonton - 50th Street - - - 14 14
Deerfoot Trail Upgrades (Calgary) - - 37 73 110
Edmonton / Calgary Ring Roads 488 587 463 335 1,873
Gaetz Avenue / Taylor Drive Interchange (Red Deer) 5 - - - 5
Grande Prairie – Highway 43 Bypass 1 - 7 - 8
Highway 19 (East and West ends) 15 9 - 4 28
Highway 1A Upgrade (Stoney First Nation) - 17 1 9 27
Highway 63 Twinning (Grassland to Fort McMurray) - 5 22 23 49
Highway Twinning, Widening and Expansion 95 133 178 191 597
P3 Ring Road Rehabilitation 9 6 6 6 28
Peace River Bridge 40 16 - - 56
Total Roads and Bridges 673 792 734 674 2,873
Renewing Educational Infrastructure

Education Planning Funds 1 1 1 1 4
Modular Classroom Program 45 28 25 25 123
Peerless Trout First Nation Schools 5 1 - - 6
Playgrounds 5 6 - - 11
Previously Announced School Projects 470 580 261 50 1,361
School Capital Projects 2019-24 - 44 145 139 328
Total Renewing Educational Infrastructure 526 660 432 216 1,833
Service Delivery
Agrivalue Processing Business Incubator (Leduc) 5 12 7 - 24
Alberta Innovates – Millwoods Fuels and Lubricants Group Safety Upgrade 4 - - - 4
Alberta Innovates / InnoTech Alberta – Fume Hood Replacement Program 4 4 4 4 17
Centralized Industrial Property Assessment 2 7 2 2 13
eCourts 3 5 8 11 27
Electronic Health Records 6 6 6 6 23
Enabling New Model of Care (ENMOC) - 11 6 - 17
Government Accommodation 37 65 50 50 202
Government Vehicle Fleet 13 13 13 13 51
Health IT Systems Development 22 22 22 22 89
Information Technology and Other Capital 85 74 80 68 308
Infrastructure Capital Planning 4 4 4 4 16
Integrated Approvals Project (One Stop) 1 - - - 1
Land Purchases 21 8 8 8 46
Modernization of Registry Systems 7 4 10 10 31
One Information Management and Technology (IMT) Enterprise Priorities 59 55 55 55 224
Water Management Infrastructure 29 30 30 30 119
Total Service Delivery 301 321 305 284 1,211

B19_FP_CP_Details-tables - Oct 16 / Cap Plan Det3 10/17/2019 / 2:21 PM
pdf name: B19_FP_CP_cpd-4.pdf Budget 2019
Capital Plan section

(millionsof
dollars)
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 4-Year
Public Safety and Emergency Services

Alberta First Responders Radio Communications System 9 2 2 2 16
Calgary Remand Centre Divided Living Units 2 - - - 2
Calgary Young Offender Centre - Security Upgrades 2 - - - 2
Courthouse Renewal 14 18 9 - 41
Courthouse Upgrades and Renovations (Calgary, Edmonton, and 2 - - - 2
Lethbridge)
Disaster Recovery Program Redesign 2 1 - - 3
Flood Recovery Projects 100 190 96 - 386
Kananaskis Emergency Services Centre 7 2 2 - 11
Planning Funds 3 - - - 3
Red Deer Justice Centre 6 48 73 51 178
Total Public Safety and Emergency Services 147 262 181 53 644
Agriculture and Natural Resources

Carbon Capture and Storage Initiative 136 71 58 58 324
Footner Lake (High Level) Facility Renovations and Enhancements 1 - - - 1
Fractionation Equipment at the Food Processing Centre in Leduc 1 2 - - 2
Irrigation Rehabilitation Program 14 10 12 12 48
Land Stewardship Fund 15 15 15 15 60
Rural Utilities Program 3 3 6 6 19
Wildfire Facility Upgrade Program 6 6 6 6 26
Wildfire Management Readiness 2 2 2 2 9
Total Agriculture and Natural Resources 179 110 100 100 488
Family, Social Supports and Housing

Aboriginal Business Investment Fund 5 5 5 5 20
Affordable Housing Energy Savings Program 3 - - - 3
Family and Community Housing Development and Renewal 30 37 9 - 76
Indigenous Housing Capital Program 5 10 10 10 35
Long Term Governance and Funding Agreement (LTA) 3 2 2 2 10
– Infrastructure and Housing for Métis Settlements
New Housing Supply – Affordable and Specialized Housing 14 22 24 12 72
Planning for Affordable Housing 3 3 - - 5
Seniors Housing Development and Renewal 63 99 61 31 255
Total Family, Social Supports and Housing 126 178 112 60 476
Capital Plan | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

https://bud.tbfsp.gov.ab.ca/Confidential/Confidential Docs/Fiscal Plan 2019/Capital Plan/Charts/ 137
B19_FP_CP_Details-tables - Oct 16/Cap Plan Det4 Updated: 10/17/2019/2:47 PM
pdf name: B19_FP_CP_cpd-5.pdf Budget 2019
Capital Plan Section

(millionsof
dollars)
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 4-Year

Skills for Jobs

Keyano College – Campus Upgrades 8 - - - 8
NAIT – Blatchford Land Purchase 30 - - - 30
Northern Lakes College – Various Projects 11 6 1 - 18
University of Alberta – Dentistry Pharmacy – Functional Renewal of Building 48 49 44 56 197
University of Alberta – District Energy System 9 5 2 - 16
University of Calgary – MacKimmie Complex 95 60 32 - 187
University of Lethbridge – Destination Project 7 - - - 7
Total Skills for Jobs 208 120 79 56 463
Sports and Recreation

Community Facility Enhancement Program 25 25 25 25 100
Heritage Park Society Natural Resources Project 1 1 - - 2
Jubilee Auditoria Back-of-House Upgrades (Edmonton and Calgary) 6 3 - - 8
Other Environment and Parks Projects 26 19 19 18 82
Reynolds – Alberta Museum (Wetaskiwin) 6 11 6 - 24
Royal Alberta Museum (Edmonton) 3 2 - - 6
Royal Tyrrell Museum of Palaeontology – Expansion (Drumheller) 1 1 - - 2
Telus World of Science (Edmonton) 5 9 3 1 17
Vivo for Healthier Generations (Calgary) 10 10 5 - 25
Winspear Centre (Edmonton) 7 14 6 - 27
Winsport – Upgrading for X Games 2 - - - 2
YWCA Calgary Hub Facility 1 - - - 1
Total Sports and Recreation 93 96 64 43 296
Total Capital Plan – Core Government 5,499 5,904 5,393 4,880 21,674
Schools, Universities, Colleges, Hospitals (SUCH) Sector 707 668 603 528 2,506
– Self-financed Investment
Total Capital Plan – Fully Consolidated Basis 6,206 6,572 5,996 5,407 24,180

B19_FP_CP_Details-tables - Oct 16/Cap Plan Det5 Update: 10/17/2019/2:21 PM
BUDGET 2019
Fiscal Plan
Tax Plan
139
Table of Contents
Tax Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
A Competitive Corporate Tax Regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
Supporting the Most Vulnerable with the New Alberta Child and Family Benefit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
Reducing Tax Expenditures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Tourism Levy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
Protecting Public Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
Education Property Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
Other Measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
Annex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
Alberta Non-Refundable Tax Credit Block. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
Alberta Personal Income Tax Brackets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
2019 Tax Expenditure Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
2019-20 Tax Revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
2019-20 Tax Revenue Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Interprovincial Tax Comparison, 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
Major Provincial Tax Rates, 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
140 Tax Plan | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Tax Plan
Introduction
Since taking office in spring 2019, the government has delivered on its
commitment to reduce the tax burden on Albertans and Alberta businesses.
The repeal of the carbon tax lowers the cost of living for Albertans and their
families and leaves more money with small businesses. The corporate tax
reductions provided by the Job Creation Tax Cut, combined with reductions in
red tape, will restore Alberta’s tax competitiveness and help build an environment
where businesses can thrive and create jobs for Albertans. This approach is in
complete contrast to the approach implemented in the previous four years, which
saw taxes on individuals and businesses increased during a deep recession, when
households and job creators could least afford them.
With the implementation of the Job Creation Tax Cut, as well as enhancements
to the capital cost allowance regime, Alberta will have the most competitive
corporate tax system in Canada. The province will shift back to a low‑rate,
broad‑based approach that leaves business decisions in the hands of business,
not government. As part of this approach, Budget 2019 proposes to eliminate
existing targeted tax credits that benefit certain corporations.
Introducing the Alberta Child and Family Benefit (ACFB) will refocus child
benefits to better support families most in need. The ACFB replaces the Alberta
Family Employment Tax Credit (AFETC) and the Alberta Child Benefit (ACB)
with a single program that provides more benefits to lower‑income families
while reducing administrative costs.
The government made a commitment to get Alberta’s spending back under
control and to better align it with other provinces. This includes looking at
spending undertaken through the tax system, also known as tax expenditures,
to ensure this spending is properly targeted, affordable and comparable to
similar supports provided in other provinces. In addition to eliminating
corporate‑focused tax expenditures, Alberta will also:
• Pause indexation of the personal income tax system until economic and
fiscal conditions improve.
• Eliminate education and tuition tax credit amounts.
Lastly, as part of Alberta’s efforts to reduce tobacco use and deter non‑users
from ever starting, the tobacco tax will be increased $5 per carton of 200
cigarettes, effective 12:01 a.m. on October 25, 2019. The government also
intends to place a tax on vaping products to support public health and reduce
youth access. More details on this tax will be available in the 2020 budget.
Tax Plan | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 141

After factoring in all these changes, Alberta will continue to have a significant
tax advantage compared to other provinces, with the most competitive corporate
income taxes, low personal income taxes and no sales tax, payroll tax or health
PDF named:
premium. Albertans and Alberta businesses would pay at least $13.4 billion more
TP19_chrt_01.pdf
in taxes if Alberta had the same tax system as any other province.
Alberta’s tax advantage is Alberta's Tax Advantage, 2019-20

Alberta’s Tax Advantage, 2019–20 ($ billions)
$13.4 billion in 2019-20.
ON 13.4 Sales Tax

Other Taxes / Carbon Charges
SK 13.6
BC 14.6
MB 19.6
NB 19.9
QC 21.2
NS 21.5
PE 22.6
NL 23.5
0 4 8 12 16 20 24

* This graph shows the total additional provincial tax and carbon charges that individuals and
businesses would pay if Alberta had the same tax system and carbon charges as other
provinces. This information reflects tax rates for other provinces known as of October 4, 2019.
TP19_chrt_01.pdf
This comparison includes personal and corporate income tax, sales tax, fuel tax, carbon
charges (excluding the fuel charge under the federal carbon pricing backstop), tobacco tax,
health premiums, payroll tax, liquor tax and markups, land transfer tax and other minor taxes.

A Competitive Corporate Tax Regime
* This graph shows the total additional provincial tax and carbon charges that
individuals and businesses would pay if Alberta had the same tax system and
Jobcharges
carbon Creation asTax
otherCut
provinces. This information reflects tax rates for other
provinces
The Job Creation Tax Cut is a 4,
known as of October 2019. This
legislated comparison
plan to includes
reduce Alberta’s personal
general corporate
andincome
corporate income tax, sales tax, fuel tax, carbon charges (excluding
tax rate from 12 per cent to eight per cent. Under this plan, the ratethewas
fuel charge under the federal carbon pricing backstop), tobacco tax, health
reduced to 11 per cent on July 1, 2019, and will be reduced by one percentage
premiums, payroll tax, liquor tax and markups, land transfer tax and other
point on January 1 of each year until reaching eight per cent on January 1, 2022.
minor taxes.
As of July 1, 2019, Alberta has the lowest general corporate tax rate in Canada
Alberta’s combined
federal‑provincial tax rate will be
and will have, by far, the lowest rate when the Job Creation Tax Cut is fully
lower than all other provinces and implemented. By 2022, Alberta’s rate will be 30 per cent lower than the
44 U.S. states. next‑lowest announced provincial rate and Alberta will have a lower combined
federal‑provincial corporate tax rate than 44 U.S. states (see map).
Corporations taxed at the general rate are the principal drivers of private
investment and economic activity, and account for 90 per cent of provincial
corporate income taxes paid. They make large investments that help drive
Alberta’s economy and employ many Albertans. Once fully implemented, it is
estimated that these rate reductions will benefit over 100,000 Alberta businesses
in all sectors of the economy. In the manufacturing sector, for example, the
S:\TBF\EFP\TP\TAX-BUDGET\TAX-BUDGET-2019-20\Tables\Advantage\Model and Output\

average tax‑paying corporation will save an estimated $100,000 per year,
meaning more money to hire Albertans.
Corporate tax cuts also benefit Albertans and their families. Workers ultimately
Lower corporate tax rates
bear most of the cost of high corporate income taxes, with tax increases
will mean more jobs and higher
passed on through lower wages and salaries. Research published by the wages for Albertans.
University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy (McKenzie and Ferede, 2017)
shows that, for every $1 increase in corporate income tax revenue due to a
rate increase, aggregate wages in Alberta decline by at least 95 cents. The Job
Creation Tax Cut will result in more jobs and higher wages for Albertans,
allowing them to better take care of their families.
The Budget 2019 forecast assumes that these reductions will increase investment
by about $4 billion per year by 2023 and real GDP growth by 0.3 to 0.4
percentage points annually between 2020 and 2023 (see Economic Outlook
section). Research by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy
(Dahlby and Ferede, 2019) suggests the impacts could be even higher, boosting
per capita growth by 0.6 to 0.9 percentage points per year, and adding more
than 55,000 jobs by 2022. These job estimates are also in line with those
produced by Professor Jack Mintz.
Scheduled Reductions to Alberta’s General Corporate Income Tax Rate

General rate reduction schedule Tax rate
July 1, 2015 to June 30, 2019 12%
July 1, 2019 11%
January 1, 2020 10%
January 1, 2021 9%
January 1, 2022 8%
Combined Federal and Provincial/State Corporate Tax Rates, Canada and U.S.
NL
30.0%
BC
27.0% AB QC PE
AK AB
23.0% 26.5% 31.0%
28.4% 23.0% MB
SK 27.0% ON NB NS
27.0% 26.5% 29.0% 31.0% Highest: 31%
VT ME
WA NH
21.0% ND MA
MT
24.4% NY RI
OR 26.3% MN Alberta 2018: 27%
ID WI CT
27.0% SD MI PA NJ Rank 36
26.5% DE
WY MD
IA OH
NE IN WV VA DC
IL
NV
HI UT KY NC Alberta 2022: 23%
CO KS MO
CA TN Rank 7
28.0% SC
OK AR
AZ GA
NM MS AL Lowest: 21%
TX LA
21.0% 26.0% FL
* Nevada, Ohio, Texas, and Washington impose gross receipts taxes instead of corporate income taxes, which are not reflected in the rates
shown. Gross receipts taxes, which typically apply to total gross revenues, are generally considered more harmful to the economy than
corporate income taxes.

By boosting the economy and the success of corporations, the Job Creation
When corporate tax rates were
increased in 2015, corporate Tax Cut will also strengthen the province’s tax base. Research shows that the
income tax revenue dropped for direct decline in revenue from a corporate tax reduction is, in large part, offset
three consecutive years. by taxes collected on higher investment, higher employment income, and new
income earned in the province. From 2019‑20 to 2022‑23, positive economic
impacts are expected to offset about half the cost of the rate reductions, with
these impacts increasing over time. Over the next four years, the government
will provide $4.7 billion in tax relief, with a net fiscal cost of $2.4 billion after
accounting for these positive impacts.
Enhanced Capital Cost Allowances

To further improve Alberta’s competitiveness and encourage investment,
Alberta also paralleled federal measures to enhance the capital cost allowance
(CCA) regime. These measures allow corporations to claim the costs of new
capital assets more quickly for tax purposes, improving a company’s cash flow
and making it more attractive for them to invest in new assets. Corporations
will be able to immediately claim the full costs of manufacturing and processing
equipment, along with clean energy generation equipment. Corporations will
also be eligible to claim up to three times the normal first‑year cost allowance
related to other capital investments. The resource sector will be able to claim
a first year deduction of one‑and‑a‑half times the amount of qualifying
development expenses they would otherwise be able to claim. Consistent with
the federal announcement, these measures begin to phase out in 2023 and will
be completely phased out by 2027.
This measure only benefits firms that make new investments. As a result, the
enhanced CCA rates will encourage Alberta businesses to invest, grow and
modernize their operations. The CCA enhancements will improve the cash‑flow
of businesses that invest in this province by providing up to $900 million in
provincial tax deferrals over the period of 2018‑19 to 2022‑23.
Historically, the Alberta economy has been fuelled by new investment,
including many large projects. However, investment has suffered since the
recession. When these enhancements are combined with the Job Creation
Tax Cut, Alberta will be the most tax competitive place for new investment in
Canada, and among the most competitive in North America.
Low Taxes for All Industries

With the Job Creation Tax Cut and enhancements to CCA rates, Alberta will
return to a low‑rate, broad‑based corporate tax system that rewards success in
all sectors and puts decisions in the hands of the private sector, not government.
As such, the Alberta Investor Tax Credit, the Community Economic
Development Corporation Tax Credit and the Capital Investment Tax Credit,
all of which were introduced by the previous government on a temporary basis
until 2021‑22, are being eliminated ahead of schedule. The Interactive Digital
Media Tax Credit and the Scientific Research and Experimental Development
Tax Credit (SR&ED) are being eliminated as well.

In contrast to targeted tax credits, the corporate tax rate reductions and
Lower corporate tax rates
enhanced CCA rates create a competitive environment for all industries to grow encourage diversification by
and succeed. These measures provide a much greater boost to overall business supporting growth in all sectors
competitiveness than existing tax credits. It is estimated that over 100,000 of the economy.
Alberta corporations will benefit from the Job Creation Tax Cut, as opposed
to approximately 1,500 corporations that would have benefited from the five
targeted tax credits.
A low‑rate, broad‑based approach has long been advocated by leading economists
and tax experts, and has served Alberta well in the past. For example, from
2001 to 2014, Alberta, unlike other provinces, followed a low‑rate, broad‑based
corporate tax approach. During this period, Alberta led all provinces in growth
across nearly every industry sector, with growth in non‑resource sectors generally
outpacing growth in the resource sector. Further, when looking at more recent
data, it is clear that many non‑resource sectors pay a higher share of corporate
taxes compared to their direct contribution to the economy as measured by GDP
(see chart at the top of the following page). This means that the benefits of the
tax cuts will be even more meaningful to non‑resource sectors and will create
more of an incentive for these sectors to grow in Alberta. Ultimately, the low‑rate,
broad‑based approach will encourage sustainable diversification of Alberta’s
economy that is not dependent on government handouts.
The low‑rate, broad‑based approach also supports innovation. Upfront
tax credits such as the SR&ED credit create an incentive for businesses to
undertake the initial research in a jurisdiction, but they do not provide a
strong incentive to commercialize successful research in that jurisdiction – a
part of the process that can result in significant economic activity and benefits.
Research shows that taxation on the rewards of innovation matters a great deal,
and that the federal government already provides generous supports for research
Taxdevelopment.
and Plan
Budget 2019
Average Annual Real GDP Growth by Industry, 2001 to 2014

Average Annual Real GDP Growth by Industry, 2001 to 2014
All Industries
Oil and Gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance and Insurance Alberta
Real Estate and Leasing Canada
Professional Services
Educational Services
Accommodation and Food Services
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
Sources:
Tax Statistics
Plan | Fiscal Plan 2019 –Canada
23 and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance 145
Budget 2019
Average Share of Alberta Corporate Tax Revenue and Nominal GDP by Sector,
2014-15 to 2018-19
Average Share of Alberta Corporate Tax Revenue and Nominal GDP by Sector, 2014-15 to 2018-19
(%)
Share of Corporate Tax Revenue Share of GDP
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Oil and Gas Manufacturing Finance and Wholesale and Professional Real Estate and
Insurance Retail Trade Services Leasing

*
Nominal GDP is on a calendar year basis for 2014 to 2018
This approach to corporate taxation is unique within Canada and will make
Sources: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury
Alberta Board
the best and Finance
province in which to develop and commercialize new products
*Nominal GDP is on a calendar year basis for 2014helping
and services, to 2018.
to drive new economic growth and opportunities.
Targeted tax credits also come with red tape, which makes them a relatively
TP19_chrt_05 inefficient way to deliver benefits to business. The application process for some
tax credits involves multiple steps and can take over a year before an application
results in a payment by government. In contrast, the Job Creation Tax Cut and
enhancements to the CCA regime are implemented within existing tax filing
processes with no additional compliance or administrative burden.
The SR&ED credit will be eliminated starting in 2020, with expenses incurred
after December 31, 2019 no longer eligible. For the other targeted credits,
no new approvals will be granted after October 24, 2019. Businesses already
approved under the Alberta Investor Tax Credit or the Community Economic
Development Tax Credit have until December 31, 2019 to raise capital for
Path: W:\TAX-BUDGET\TAX-BUDGET-2019-20\Tables\CIT Tablesand
these credits. Corporations and Charts\ will still be able to claim any unused
individuals
File: Share of Total AB CIT Revenues and GDPwhere applicable.
credits,
Tab: 5 - % CIT Revenues & GDP Last updat
Eliminating these five tax credits will reduce Alberta’s tax expenditures by over
$400 million by 2022‑23, supporting the government’s commitment to bring
spending to more affordable levels.
Small Business
The government is also committed to creating an environment where small
businesses and their owners can succeed. This includes eliminating Alberta’s
carbon tax while maintaining the small business rate at 2 per cent, which was
lowered to help offset the additional costs the carbon tax imposed on Alberta’s

Budget 2019
Tax Policy
small businesses. This is estimated to provide $195 million in savings to
Provincial Tax Paid by Small
small businesses in 2019‑20. With a rate of 2 per cent, Alberta is tied for the Provincial Tax Paid by Small B
Business Owners, 2019
second‑lowest small business rate among provinces. However, when all taxes are $50,000 Small Business Income
(thousands of dollars)
taken into consideration, Alberta small business owners are better off than they
$50,000 Small Business Income
would be in any other province.
4 10
The Job Creation Tax Cut and enhancements to the CCA regime also help
small businesses, as a stronger economy lifts the prospects for all businesses. 8
In addition, about 75 per cent of businesses that benefit from the general rate 3
reductions also benefit from the small business rate, meaning that these small 6
businesses can grow without high corporate tax rates punishing their success. 2
4
Supporting the Most Vulnerable

Budget 2019 with the 1
2
New Alberta Child and Family
Tax PolicyBenefit
The Alberta Family Employment Tax Credit (AFETC) and theTax

Provincial Alberta Child
Paid by Small Business
0 Owners, 2019
AB BC SK MB ON
Benefit (ACB) provide eligible families as much as $4,998
$50,000 annually.Income
Small Business $500,000 Small Business Income
To focus benefits on Albertans most in need, and to streamline administration, $500,000 Small Business Income
the government will replace these two programs 4 with a single program, the new 100
Alberta Child and Family Benefit (ACFB), beginning in July 2020. The ACFB
will focus dollars more effectively on families with lower incomes, with many TP19_chrt_06.pdf
80
lower‑income families receiving higher benefits3compared to the old programs.
TaxUnder
Plan the new ACFB, a family with two children can receive up to $593 more PDF
60 Name: TP19_chrt_07.pdf
Budget 2019
per year, while a family with four children can 2receive up to $889 more per year.
Alberta Child and Family Benefit by Income,

40
2020-21
1
20
Alberta Child and Family Benefit by Income, 2020-21
Benefit ($)
1 Child 2 Children 0
0
5,500 AB BC SK MB ON
AB
3 Children BC SK MB ON
4+ Children
5,000 Sales Tax
4,500
4,000 Corporate Income Tax
3,500
3,000 Personal Income Tax
2,500 and Health Premium
TP19_chrt_06.pdf
2,000
1,500 Source: Alberta Treasury Board and
Finance
1,000 *
Small business income is before
500
compensation is paid to the owner.
0 *
Assumes that the owner is paid
a salary until RRSP contributions
are maximized, with any remainder
Income ($) taken as dividends.

* Working Source:
componentAlberta Treasury
benefits are Board
phased in and
on family Finance
working income. Base component and
working component benefits are both phased out on family net income.
TP19_chrt_07.pdf
Tax Plan | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 W:\TAX-BUDGET\TAX-BUDGET-2019-20\

147
Tax Calculator - Budget 2019 - v2.0: 6 - Sm
Alberta Child and Family Benefit Program Parameters, 2020-21
Program Parameters Base Component Working Component
Benefit amounts
1 child $1,330 $681
2 children $1,995 $1,301
3 children $2,660 $1,672
4 or more children $3,325 $1,795
Income phase-in threshold N/A $2,760
Phase-in rate N/A 15.00%
Phase-out rates
1 child 8.05% 3.40%
2 children 12.07% 6.49%
3 children 16.09% 8.34%
4 or more children 20.11% 8.95%
Phase-out threshold $24,467 $41,000

* Working component benefits are phased in on family working income. Base component and
working component benefits are both phased out on family net income.
The ACFB includes both a base component and a working component, with
Alberta families most in need
will receive 15% more in
combined benefits increasing to a maximum of $5,120. The maximum base
benefits under the ACFB. component ranges from $1,330 to $3,325, depending on the number of
children, an increase of 15 per cent compared to the former ACB. The base
component will begin to phase out once family net income exceeds $24,467,
and will be fully phased out when family net income exceeds about $41,000.
Families will also be eligible for the working component once their family
employment income exceeds $2,760. The maximum working component
will range from $681 to $1,795, depending on the number of children in the
family. This component will be phased in at a rate of 15 per cent. As families
work more, they receive more benefits, encouraging them to join or remain in
the workforce. When family net income exceeds $41,000, this component will
begin to phase out, and will be fully phased out once family net income reaches
about $61,000.
The ACFB will be paid quarterly, in August, November, February and May.
ACFB amounts are non‑taxable and will not affect eligibility for other benefit
programs.
These changes, which better support lower‑income families and implement a
more streamlined approach, will see Alberta continue to have some of the most
generous child benefits in the country. The new program is estimated to deliver
about $290 million in benefits to over 190,000 families on a full‑year basis.

Reducing Tax Expenditures
The government has made a commitment to get Alberta’s spending back under
control and better aligned with other provinces. This includes looking at The government will reduce tax
expenditures to better align Alberta
spending undertaken through the tax system, also known as tax expenditures,
with other provinces.
to ensure that it is properly targeted, affordable and aligned with similar
supports provided in other provinces.
Pausing Indexation
Alberta’s basic personal and spousal amounts are $19,369 in 2019, 20 per cent
higher than the next‑highest province. Most other non‑refundable tax credits
are also higher than those in other provinces. Annual indexing increases
these amounts automatically every year, resulting in a significant annual tax
expenditure for government.
With the need to control spending, continuing to index these benefits is
unaffordable for the time being. As a result, Alberta will pause the indexation
of non‑refundable tax credits and tax bracket thresholds, with the 2019
amounts carried forward for the 2020 and future tax years. Alberta will resume
indexing the tax system once economic and fiscal conditions can support it.
This measure is estimated to reduce tax expenditures by about $20 million in
2019‑20, $98 million in 2020‑21 and $196 million in 2021‑22. In total, this
measure is expected to save over $600 million by the end of 2022‑23.
Basic Personal and Spousal Amounts by Province, 2019

Province AB BC SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL
Basic personal amount ($) 19,369 10,682 16,065 9,626 10,582 15,269 10,264 8,481 9,160 9,414
Spousal amount (max. $) 19,369 9,147 16,065 9,134 8,985 15,269 8,716 8,481 7,780 7,692
* Other provinces’ amounts known as of October 4, 2019.

* In Quebec, unused tax credits may be transferred from one spouse to another after accounting for non-refundable tax credits in the calculation
of the individual’s income tax.
Even with the pause to indexation, Albertans will continue to pay the lowest
overall taxes in Canada for the foreseeable future. Further details on Alberta’s
non‑refundable tax credit block, income tax bracket thresholds and total taxes
paid by Albertans are available in the Annex.
Education and Tuition Tax Credits

Alberta’s generous education and tuition tax credits stand out as a significant
outlier compared to what other provinces provide. To reduce tax expenditures
and to better align overall post‑secondary funding with amounts provided in
other provinces, Alberta will eliminate its education and tuition tax credits
beginning with the 2020 tax year. These changes also align with recent changes
in Ontario and Saskatchewan. Alberta students will still be able to claim
amounts earned prior to 2020.
These measures are estimated to reduce tax expenditures by $20 million in
2019‑20, $90 million in 2020‑21 and $115 million in 2021‑22.

Tourism Levy
Short‑term rentals (STRs) offered through online marketplaces, such as Airbnb,
HomeAway, and Vacation Rental by Owner (VRBO), are an increasingly
popular accommodation option in Alberta. While the province applies a
tourism levy of 4 per cent on most types of temporary accommodation rentals,
the levy was not designed with STRs in mind. As a result, the operators of
STRs listed on online marketplaces are generally not required to charge the
tourism levy when they rent out their properties. This gives these operators
an unfair advantage over hotels and other accommodation providers that are
subject to the levy.
The government intends to bring forward legislation in spring 2020 to level
the playing field among temporary accommodation providers. To facilitate
the collection of the tourism levy from STR operators, online marketplaces
will be authorized to collect and remit the levy to government on their behalf.
Government will work with online marketplaces to implement this change.
Protecting Public Health
Tobacco Tax
Tobacco taxes continue to be an important part of Alberta’s strategy to reduce
tobacco use. Tobacco taxes decrease the affordability of tobacco products,
encouraging users to quit and deterring non‑users from ever starting. This
is particularly true for young people, who are more responsive to the cost of
tobacco products.
To further deter tobacco use, and so tax rates keep up with inflation, the tax
on a carton of 200 cigarettes will be increased $5 to $55 per carton effective
12:01 a.m. on October 25, 2019. With this increase, Alberta’s tax rate on
cigarettes will become more comparable to the rates in neighbouring provinces.
To maintain parity among tobacco products and to prevent users from shifting
their consumption to different products for tax‑based reasons, the tax on other
products will be increased by the same proportion. The tax on loose tobacco
will rise 3.75 cents to 41.25 cents per gram. Similarly, the tax rate applied
to cigars will be increased from 129 per cent to 142 per cent of the taxable
price of the cigar, with the minimum and maximum tax per cigar increased to
27.5 cents and $8.61, respectively.
These changes are estimated to generate $45 to $55 million per year in
additional revenue.

Tax Plan PDF Name: TP19_chrt_10.pdf
Budget 2019
Provincial Tax Per Carton of 200 Cigarettes, 2019
Provincial Taxes Per Carton of 200 Cigarettes
Total Provincial Taxes ($)
80 Tobacco Tax Sales Tax
70
8.24
60 11.28
6.70 10.88 10.67
10.77
50
40 7.57
30 60.00
55.00 55.00 54.00 55.04
51.04 50.00 49.00
20 36.95
29.80
10
0
AB BC SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL

* Alberta’s tax rate reflects the rate increase on October 25, 2019. Other provinces’ tax rates
Sources:
known asStatistics
of October Canada
4, 2019. and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance
**Alberta's tax rate reflects
Sales tax amounts are the
calculated rate
using increaseaverage
a 12-month on October 25,for2019.
retail price a cartonOther
of provinces’
tax rates known as of October 4, 2019.
cigarettes in Canada (September 2018 to August 2019).
*Sales tax amounts are calculated using a 12-month average retail price for a carton of cigarettes in Canada (September 20
Vaping Products
Budget 2019
TP19_chrt_10.pdf
Tax Plan
In alignment with Alberta’s strategy to reduce tobacco use, government also
intends to implement a tax on vaping products to reduce youth access to this Distribution of Property Tax
rapidly growing market. As part of the broader government review of tobacco,
tobacco‑like and vaping products, government will explore the best approaches
for implementing a tax on vaping products, with more details to come in the
2020 budget. Distribution of Property Tax
If revenue is comparable to that of U.S. jurisdictions, the revenue from this new
tax is expected to be low, likely under $10 million annually. However, taxing
these products is an important tool to discourage youth from taking up vaping,
as youth are more responsive to higher prices. 51% 49%
Education Property Tax

1994
The education property tax provides Alberta’s education system with a stable
and sustainable source of revenue. The tax supports all public and separate
school students and helps pay for instructional costs including teacher salaries,
75%
textbooks and other classroom resources. 25%
Education property tax rates will be frozen in 2019‑20. The residential/

farmland rate will remain at $2.56 per $1,000 of equalized assessment, while
the non‑residential rate will remain at $3.76. While rates are frozen, revenue 2018
from the tax will rise 1.7 per cent due to a growing assessment base. Education Provincial Municipal
property tax revenue will fund about 30 per cent of education operating costs.
Sources: Alberta Treasury Board
and Finance and Alberta
Municipal Affairs
Path: W:\TAX-BUDGET\TAX-BUDGET-2019-20\Tables\Tobacco Tax\ Sources: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance and
Alberta Municipal Affairs
File: Tobacco Tax Rates and Tobacco Tax Revenue (Updated Sep 5, 2019)
Tax Plan | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23
Tab: 10 - Interprovincial Comparison Last Updated: 2019-10-09 @ 9:28 151
AM
TP19_chrt_11.pdf
Government
Tax Plan continues to take a lower share of revenue from the property tax PDF Nam
base than
Budget 2019municipalities. Since government assumed responsibility for education
property tax in 1994, the province’s share of total provincial‑municipal property
tax revenue collected fell from 51 per cent to 25 per cent in 2018.
Distribution of Property Tax in Alberta, 1994 to 2018
Provincial and Municipal Property Tax Revenue, 1994 to 2018
(millions of $)
12,000
Provincial Education Property Tax

10,000
Municipal Property Tax
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Sources: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance and Alberta Municipal Affairs
Sources: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance and Alberta Municipal Affairs
Other Measures
TP19_chrt_11a.pdf
Dividend Tax Credit
Income earned through corporations and then paid out to shareholders is taxed
twice, once at the corporate level and again at the personal level in the hands
of shareholders. The dividend tax credit integrates the corporate and personal
income tax systems by offsetting corporate taxes that have already been paid on
the income from which the corporation distributes dividends, eliminating the
double taxation of this income.
The dividend tax credit rate for dividends paid out of income taxed at the general
corporate income tax rate (eligible dividends) will be adjusted on January 1, 2021
and then again on January 1, 2022, corresponding with the legislated reductions
to the general corporate income tax rate. These adjustments will ensure that
the combined corporate and personal income tax paid on dividend income
approximately equals the individual’s personal tax rate.

Path: S:\TBF\EFP\TP\TAX-BUDGET\TAX-BUDGET-2019-20\Tables\Education Property Tax Ta
File: Distribution of Property Tax -Pie Chart (Updated for Budget 2019)
Transforming Support for Alberta’s Film Industry
Government recognizes the contributions of Alberta’s film industry to Alberta
culture, and has supported it through a grant program for many years. To fulfill
its platform commitment, the government will transform the way support
is currently provided to Alberta’s film industry by issuing payments through
the income tax system, beginning in spring 2020. The Ministry of Economic
Development, Trade and Tourism will be responsible for managing approvals
and will issue certificates to approved corporations, who will then include those
certificates when filing their taxes.
Paying out these benefits through the tax system aligns Alberta’s payment
mechanism with those in other provinces. Eligible companies will be able to
receive assistance worth 22 per cent of eligible expenditures, to a maximum
payment of $10 million. More details will be available when the legislation and
regulations are brought forward.
Funding will continue to be capped. Due to the fiscal situation and the
over‑subscription of the grant program from previous years, funding under
the new program is expected to be $15 million in 2020‑21, $30 million in
2021‑22 and $45 million in 2022‑23.
Canada Workers Benefit

The Canada Workers Benefit (CWB) replaced the Working Income Tax Benefit
(WITB) in 2019. This federal refundable tax credit provides tax relief for
lower‑income working individuals and families. As the federal government did
with the WITB, it allowed provinces to reconfigure the CWB to better align
with provincial programs and priorities.
Alberta will reconfigure the CWB, similar to how the province reconfigured the
WITB. Specifically, the reconfiguration will:
• Align the phase‑in income level with the Income Support (IS) earnings
exemption threshold ($2,760) to help offset the impact of Alberta IS
benefits being clawed back as a recipient’s employment income rises.
• S hift slightly more benefits to single individuals without children, recognizing
that the Alberta Child and Family Benefit will continue to provide some
of the most generous benefits in the country to lower‑ and middle‑income
families with children.

BLANK PAGE
154
Tax Plan
Annex
155
Alberta Non-Refundable Tax Credit Block
(dollars)
2018 2019 and 2020
Maximum Reduction in Maximum Reduction in
Amount Alberta Tax Amount Alberta Tax
Basic personal amount 18,915 1,892 19,369 1,937
Spousal amount 18,915 1,892 19,369 1,937
Eligible dependant amount 18,915 1,892 19,369 1,937
Age amount 5,271 527 5,397 540
Infirm dependant amount 10,949 1,095 11,212 1,121
CPP contributions 2,594 259 2,668 267
EI premiums 858 86 860 86
Pension income amount 1,456 146 1,491 149
Disability amount 14,590 1,459 14,940 1,494
Disability supplement 10,949 1,095 11,212 1,121
Adoption expenses 12,936 1,294 13,247 1,325
Medical expenses Variable Variable Variable Variable
Medical expenses (other dependants) Variable Variable Variable Variable
Caregiver amount 10,949 1,095 11,212 1,121
Interest on student loans Variable Variable Variable Variable
Donations and gifts
first $200 200 20 200 20
over $200 75% of income Variable 75% of income Variable
* In general, credit amounts are multiplied by 10% to arrive at the reduction in Alberta tax. In the case of total donations and gifts over $200, the
credit rate is 21%.
Alberta Personal Income Tax Brackets
Income Bracket
Tax Rate (%)
2018 2019 and 2020
Up to $128,145 Up to $131,220 10
$128,145.01 to $153,773 $131,220.01 to $157,464 12
$153,773.01 to $205,031 $157,464.01 to $209,952 13
$205,031.01 to $307,547 $209,952.01 to $314,928 14
$307,547.01 and up $314,928.01 and up 15

2019 Tax Expenditure Estimates
Personal Income Tax

Federal Measures Paralleled by Alberta
Workers' compensation payments exemption 24.4
Social assistance payments exemption 10.5
Union and professional dues deduction 47.1
Child care expense deduction 61.4
Flow-through share deduction 14.6
Capital gains inclusion rate (50%) 413.6
Lifetime capital gains exemption 144.1
Security options deduction 48.3
Northern residents deduction 36.1
Provincial Measures
Basic personal amount 4,714.4
Spousal amount 322.1
Eligible dependant amount 97.1
Age amount 111.5
Pension income amount 50.3
Caregiver amount 22.4
Disability amount 55.6
Disability amount transferred from a dependant 49.0
Interest paid on student loans 3.4
Tuition and education amounts 147.8
Tuition and education amounts transferred from a child 32.2
Amounts transferred from a spouse or common-law partner 27.5
Medical expenses 78.4
Donations and gifts 294.0
Political contributions tax credit 6.5
Corporate Income Tax

Small business rate 1,745.0
Donations and gifts 35.0
Capital Investment Tax Credit (CITC) 26.5
Alberta Investor Tax Credit (AITC) 12.7
Fuel Tax
Tax Exempt Fuel User program (marked fuel for off-road use) 229.0
Alberta Farm Fuel Benefit (marked fuel) 68.5
Reduced rate for locomotive fuel 23.5
Exemption for aviation fuel used on international flights 4.5
Transfers Through the Tax Systema

Alberta Family Employment Tax Credit (AFETC) 161.0
Alberta Child Benefit (ACB) 179.0
Alberta Climate Leadership Adjustment Rebate (ACLAR) 180.0
Alberta Investor Tax Credit (AITC) 11.1
Scientific Research and Experimental Development (SR&ED) Tax Credit 50.0
Interactive Digital Media Tax Credit (IDMTC) 12.3
* Generally, estimates cannot be added together to determine the fiscal impact of concurrently eliminating multiple tax expenditures.
* Personal income tax expenditures are reported on a calendar year basis. The remaining expenditures are reported on a fiscal year basis.
a
Transfers through the tax system are reported in ministries’ operating expense. Amounts for the AFETC, ACLAR, and SR&ED are reported
by Treasury Board and Finance. The amount for the ACB is reported by Children’s Services and the amounts for the AITC and the IDMTC
are reported by Economic Development, Trade and Tourism.

Tax Plan PDF Name: TP19_chrt_15
bUDGET 2019
2019-20 Tax Revenue
2019-20 Tax Revenue
Others
Revenue: $1,050
Share: 4.8%
Education Property Tax

Revenue: $2,482
Share: 11.3%
Personal
Income Tax
Revenue: $11,990
Residential/farmland property Share: 54.6%
Corporate
Income Tax
Revenue: $4,177
Share: 19.0%
6. Carbon
Tobacco Tax Levy
Revenue: $864
Share: 3.9%
Fuel Tax
Revenue: $1,397
Share: 6.4%
Total Tax Revenue: $21,960 million
Total Tax Revenue: $21,963 million

TP19_chrt_15.pdf
Path: W:\TAX-BUDGET\TAX-BUDGET-2019-20\Tables\Revenue from Tax Source\

File: Revenue from Tax Sources
Tab: 16 - Tax Rev Piechrt Last Updated: 2019-10-16 @ 3:06
2019-20 Tax Revenue Sources
Tax Total Revenue Rate Revenue per Unit
1. Personal Income Tax 11,990
All taxable income 11,198 10% of all taxable income 1,119.8 per point
Taxable income > $131,220 792 multiple rates n/a
2. Corporate Income Tax 4,177
General 3,787 11.0% 344.3 per pointa
Small business 390 2.0% 195.0 per point
3. Education Property Tax 2,482
Residential/farmland property 1,558 $2.56 / $1,000 of assessment 608.6 per mill
Non-residential property 924 $3.76 / $1,000 of assessment 245.7 per mill
4. Tobacco Tax 864 $55/carton 16.6 per $/cartona
5. Fuel Tax 1,397
Gasoline 763 13.0 ¢/litre 58.7 per ¢/litre
Diesel 600 13.0 ¢/litre 46.2 per ¢/litre
Locomotive 17 5.5 ¢/litre 3.2 per ¢/litre
Aviation 13 1.5 ¢/litre 8.9 per ¢/litre
Propane 3 9.4 ¢/litre 0.3 per ¢/litre
b
6. Carbon Tax 175 multiple rates n/a
7. Freehold Mineral Rights Tax 67 n/a n/a
8. Insurance Tax 650
Life, accident, sickness 202 3.0% of premium 67.3 per point
Other 448 4.0% of premium 112.0 per point
9. Tourism Levy 88 4.0% 22.0 per point
10. Cannabis Tax 70 multiple rates n/a
*
Numbers may not add due to rounding.
a
As the rates for these taxes changed during the 2019-20 fiscal year, these calculations reflect the average tax rates for the year.
The average tax rate is 11 per cent for the general corporate income tax and $52.17 per carton for tobacco tax.
b
Alberta’s carbon tax was repealed on May 30, 2019. Carbon tax revenue shown in the table reflects the April 1 to May 30, 2019 period.

Interprovincial Tax Comparison, 2019
(dollars)
Employment Income of $35,000 – One Income Couple with Two Children
Provincial income tax (2,327) 604 (899) (144) (2,708) (5,326) 546 1,181 1,278 138
Provincial sales tax - 848 903 1,447 707 951 1,438 2,185 1,998 1,348
Health premium - - - - 300 - - - - -
Payroll tax - 392 - 325 463 1,115 - - - 375
Fuel tax & net carbon tax 289 459 450 420 441 576 465 465 330 628
Total (2,038) 2,303 454 2,048 (797) (2,684) 2,449 3,831 3,606 2,489
Alberta Tax Advantage 4,341 2,492 4,086 1,241 (646) 4,487 5,869 5,644 4,527
Employment Income of $75,000 – One Income Couple with Two Children
Provincial income tax 2,201 3,052 2,688 4,459 3,084 2,243 5,850 6,790 6,375 6,023
Provincial sales tax - 1,087 1,155 1,845 2,077 2,930 2,707 2,790 2,804 2,817
Health premium - 900 - - 600 - - - - -
Payroll tax - 841 - 697 993 2,389 - - - 803
Fuel tax & net carbon tax 289 846 450 420 441 576 465 465 330 628
Total 2,490 6,726 4,293 7,421 7,195 8,138 9,022 10,045 9,509 10,271
Alberta Tax Advantage 4,236 1,803 4,931 4,705 5,648 6,532 7,555 7,019 7,781
Employment Income of $100,000 – Two Income Couple with Two Children
Health premium - 900 - - 900 - - - - -
Payroll tax - 1,121 - 930 1,324 3,186 - - - 1,070
Fuel tax & net carbon tax 527 1,193 675 630 662 864 698 698 526 942
Total 5,041 8,032 6,371 10,002 8,971 12,714 10,835 11,555 11,385 12,045
Employment Income of $200,000 – Two Income Couple with Two Children
Health premium - 900 - - 1,350 - - - - -
Payroll tax - 2,242 - 1,860 2,648 6,371 - - - 2,141
Fuel tax & net carbon tax 797 1,193 675 630 662 864 698 698 526 942
Total 13,701 17,237 17,542 24,846 21,161 33,778 25,419 27,576 26,514 27,734
Calculations are based on other provinces' tax parameters known as of October 4, 2019.
* Health premiums are assumed to be borne by individuals. In provinces that impose payroll taxes, 75% is assumed to be borne by employees
and 25% by employers.
* Fuel tax is based on estimated consumption of 3,000 litres of gasoline per year for one-income families and 4,500 litres of gasoline for two-
income families.
* Net carbon tax reflects direct costs only and is based on the fuel tax gasoline consumption assumptions and base natural gas consumption
of 135 GJ/year for a family of four, adjusted based on provincial home heating consumption patterns. The cap-and-trade systems in Quebec
and Nova Scotia, as well as the fuel charge and rebate under the federal carbon pricing backstop, are excluded. The net carbon tax for Alberta
reflects the repeal of the carbon tax on May 30, 2019 and the Alberta Climate Leadership Adjustment Rebate (ACLAR) on June 30, 2019.
* RRSP/RPP contributions of $0, $6,000, $10,000 and $25,000 are included in the calculation of personal income tax for the $35,000, $75,000,
$100,000 and $200,000 families, respectively.
* For two-income families, income and RRSP/RPP contributions are split 60/40 between the couple.
* The children are assumed to be 6 and 12 years old.

Major Provincial Tax Rates, 2019
Personal Income Tax
Statutory rate range
lowest rate (%) 10.00 5.06 10.50 10.80 5.05 15.00a 9.68 8.79 9.80 8.70
a
highest rate (%) 15.00 16.80 14.50 17.40 13.16 25.75 20.30 21.00 16.70 18.30b
c
Surtax (%) - - - - 20/36 - - - 10.00 -
Combined federal/provincial
top marginal rated (%) 48.00 49.80 47.50 50.40 53.53 53.31 53.30 54.00 51.37 51.30
Personal amount ($) 19,369 10,682 16,065 9,626 10,582 15,269 10,264 8,481 9,160 9,414
Spousal amount (max.$) 19,369 9,147 16,065 9,134 8,985 15,269e 8,716 8,481 7,780 7,692
Corporate Income Tax
General rate (%) 11.0f 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.5 11.6f 14.0 16.0 16.0 15.0
f f
M&P rate (%) 11.0 12.0 10.0 12.0 10.0 11.6 14.0 16.0 16.0 15.0
Small business
rate (%) 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 3.5 6.0f 2.5 3.0 3.5f 3.0
threshold ($000) 500 500 600 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
Capital Tax
Financial institutions (max.%) - - 4.0 6.0 - - 5.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Sales Tax (%) - 7.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.975 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Taxes on Gasolineg (¢/litre) 13.0 23.39h 15.0 14.0 14.7i 19.2i,j 15.5i 15.5i 14.1i,k 20.92i,k
i i i i i i
Tobacco Tax ($/carton) 55.00 55.00 54.00 60.00 36.95 29.80 51.04 55.04 50.00 49.00i
Payroll Tax (max.%) - 1.95 - 2.15 1.95 4.26 - - - 2.00
Other provinces’ rates and amounts known as of October 4, 2019.

a
Quebec residents receive an abatement of 16.5% of basic federal tax because of the province’s decision to opt out of federal cash
transfers in support of provincial programs.
b
Newfoundland and Labrador residents with taxable income over $50,000 are also required to pay a Temporary Deficit Reduction Levy of
up to $1,800 in 2019.
c
Ontario levies a two-tiered surtax, collecting 20% of basic tax in excess of $4,740 and an additional 36% of basic tax in excess of $6,067.
d
The top federal personal income tax rate is 33%, except in Quebec where the top federal rate is 27.56% because of the federal abatement.
e
After accounting for non-refundable tax credits in the calculation of the individual’s income tax, unused tax credits may be transferred from
one spouse to another.
f
Alberta will further reduce its general corporate tax rate by 1 percentage point on January 1 of each year until it reaches 8% in 2022. On
January 1, 2020, Quebec will lower its general corporate tax rate to 11.5% and its small business rate to 5%, with a further decrease to 4%
on January 1, 2021. PEI will lower its small business rate to 3% on January 1, 2020.
g
Taxes on gasoline include provincial gasoline and carbon taxes. The cap-and-trade systems in Quebec and Nova Scotia, as well as the
fuel charge under the federal carbon pricing backstop, are excluded.
h
BC’s rate includes the 8.89¢/litre carbon tax on gasoline, which will increase to 10¢/litre on April 1, 2020 and then to 11.11¢/litre on April 1,
2021. Additional gasoline tax rates of 12.5¢/litre and 5.5¢/litre are imposed in the greater Vancouver and Victoria areas but are not included
in the rate shown.
i
These provinces apply their PST or the provincial portion of their HST on the retail price of the good inclusive of excise taxes.
j
An additional tax on gasoline of 3¢/litre is imposed in the Montreal area but is not included in the rate shown.
k
The rates for PEI and Newfoundland and Labrador include their 4.42¢/litre provincial carbon taxes on gasoline.

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162
BUDGET 2019
Fiscal Plan
Debt
163
Table of Contents
Debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Historical Context. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Provincial Debt Outstanding. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Cash Management Improvements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
Debt Metrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
164 Debt | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Debt
Historical Context
Persistent deficits during the latter half of the 1980s and into the early 1990s
caused a substantial amount of provincial debt to accumulate. But by the end
of 2007‑08, Alberta had virtually no taxpayer supported debt1 and more
than enough money in a debt retirement account to repay what remained.
The province also had combined savings of $15.1 billion in the Sustainability
Fund and Capital Account, plus $19.6 billion in the Heritage Fund and four
other endowment funds.
Since then, government recorded deficits in all but one year. That’s despite 14
consecutive years of surpluses that began in 1994‑95.
In short, Alberta moved from having a relatively small amount of taxpayer
supported debt and a surplus of financial assets, to having significant debt and
substantially lower assets.
For eight years, from 2000‑01 until 2008‑09, the only external financing
government used for its own needs was through public‑private partnership
projects (or P3s). By the end of 2008‑09, the province had incurred
$892 million in liabilities related to P3s. In 2009‑10, government began once
again to incur debt, borrowing $2.6 billion that year: $1.5 billion for capital
spending and $1.1 billion to repay a liability to the Teachers’ Pension Plan.
Debt and P3 liabilities grew slowly until 2012‑13, when taxpayer supported
debt totaled $6 billion. In the next two years, the debt grew faster and reached
$13 billion by the end of 2014‑15.
1 Taxpayer supported debt is debt whose payments come from tax and other provincial revenues. It is
Budget 2019
calculated by adding total outstanding debt and P3 obligations and then subtracting the amount of debt PDF Name: DR19_chrt_01.pdf
Debt Reduction
issued for financing self‑supporting provincial corporations and government business enterprises.
Taxpayer Supported Debt

Taxpayer Supported Debt
80
60
40
20
Debt | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 165

The primary use for this borrowing was to help finance capital projects.
Operating deficits were funded by money saved during the 2000s into what
eventually became the Contingency Account2. At this time, Alberta still had
more financial assets than liabilities.
In the last four years, large budget deficits and aggressive capital spending
rapidly expanded Alberta’s taxpayer supported debt by almost $50 billion,
roughly three times the size of the Heritage Fund. In December 2016, all of
the money in the Contingency Account was exhausted and government again
needed to borrow to pay operating expenses.
By the end of 2016‑17, the province had net financial liabilities instead of net
financial assets. Continued borrowing in the following two years increased debt
further. By the end of 2018‑19, taxpayer supported debt totaled $62.7 billion.
Alberta is fortunate to continue to have substantial financial assets, including
the Heritage Fund. While the purpose of these investments is not to pay down
debt, credit rating agencies and investors will often net these assets against
taxpayer supported debt when looking at Alberta’s creditworthiness.
This measure, referred to as net taxpayer supported debt, is calculated as
taxpayer supported debt less the value of financial assets. Similar to taxpayer
supported debt, net taxpayer supported debt has risen significantly.
At the end of the 2007‑08 fiscal year, government had $34.5 billion more
financial assets than taxpayer supported debt. Financial assets included money
in the Sustainability Fund, the Capital Account and the Debt Retirement
Account, as well as investments in the Heritage Fund and other provincial
endowments3. However, the total value of these assets declined as government
2 In 2009‑10, the Capital Account was merged into the Sustainability Fund. In 2013‑14, the Sustainability
Fund became the Contingency Account.
Alberta’s other endowment funds are the Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research Endowment PDF Name: D
Budget 3 2019
Fund, the Alberta Heritage Scholarship Fund, the Alberta Heritage Foundation for Science and
Debt Reduction
Engineering Research Endowment Fund and the Alberta Cancer Prevention Legacy Fund.
Net Taxpayer Supported Debt

Net Taxpayer Supported Debt
80 Taxpayer supported debt
Net taxpayer supported debt
60
40 Net Financial Liabilities
20
(20)
Net Financial Assets
(40)
DR19_chrt_02.pdf
withdrew money in the Contingency Account (and its predecessors) to help
finance capital spending, and eventually, operating deficits.
On March 31, 2019, Alberta’s net taxpayer supported debt was $37.1 billion.
This is calculated by deducting $25.6 billion in asset value from $62.7 billion of
taxpayer supported debt. Financial assets include the Heritage Fund ($16 billion)
and the other four endowment funds (combined value $4.6 billion) and a
$5 billion cash reserve.
Lenders and credit rating agencies paid substantial attention to how much
Alberta was borrowing and the rapid pace of growing debt. Alberta’s credit
rating dropped from AAA to A+ at S&P Global, from Aaa to Aa1 at Moody’s
Investors Service, and from AAA to AA at DBRS.
During the last four years, Alberta’s borrowing costs increased compared
to other provinces. As an example, at the end of September 2014 Alberta’s
borrowing costs for 10‑year debt were 0.20 per cent lower than Ontario’s
borrowing costs. However, the rapidly growing debt caused relative
borrowing costs to worsen over time. At its peak in May 2016, Alberta’s
10‑year borrowing cost was 0.17 per cent higher than Ontario’s. At the end of
March 2019, Alberta’s cost was 0.03 per cent higher.
An increase of 0.20 per cent or 0.25 per cent may not seem like much, but it
is quite significant when borrowing billions of dollars. Fortunately, the general
level of interest rates were, and are, at historically low levels.
Due to the rapid increase in debt, interest payments, or debt service costs4, also
rose significantly in the last 10 years.
4 Debt service costs, unless otherwise noted, are shown here and on the province’s financial statements
Budget 2019
on a consolidated basis. As such, the calculation includes interest on taxpayer supported debt as well PDF Name: DR19_chrt_03.pdf
Debt Reduction
as interest on the debt of self‑supporting provincial corporations. Interest paid by government business
enterprises is not included.
Debt Service Costs

Debt Service Costs
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500

In 2007‑08, total debt service costs were $208 million, or 0.6 per cent of total
revenues. That went up to $728 million in 2014‑15, representing 1.5 per cent
of total provincial revenues.
During 2018‑19, the province paid $2.0 billion in consolidated debt service
costs. This amount includes $1.5 billion of interest paid on taxpayer supported
debt, which is equal to 3.1 per cent of total revenues. Spending to pay the
interest on outstanding taxpayer supported debt in 2018‑19 was greater
than the budgets of all but four departments (Health, Education, Advanced
Education, and Community and Social Services).
Under the previous government’s plan, taxpayer supported debt was forecast
to rise to $97.1 billion by the end of 2022‑23. Under the new fiscal plan,
debt will rise at a much slower pace. This will lower taxpayer supported debt
Budget 2019 to $93.2 billion at the end of 2022‑23. Reducing thePDFamount
Name:borrowed and
DR19_chrt_04.pdf
Debt Reduction the interest that needs to be paid means more provincial revenues can be used
to support program spending. When the budget is balanced in four years,
government will develop a plan to repay debt.
Composition of Alberta Debt
March 31, 2019
Provincial Debt Outstanding
March 31, 2019
On March 31, 2019, Alberta had $85.9 billion in total debt outstanding. This
GBEs $5.1 billion includes all debt issued by the Province of Alberta, money borrowed directly by
Self-supporting
the Alberta Capital Finance Authority, and P3 contracts.
provincial
corporations Of the total, $5.1 billion is lent to government‑business enterprises (or GBEs).
$18.1 billion
GBEs’ debt is listed on their financial statements and is not consolidated
with provincial debt on the province’s financial statements. The remainder of
$80.8 billion is shown in government’s consolidated statement of financial
Debt
reported on
position. It is comprised of $62.7 billion in taxpayer supported debt and
Financial $18.1 billion in loans to self‑supporting provincial corporations.
Statements
$80.8 billion The province borrows money for a number of reasons: to support its fiscal
Taxpayer
supported debt
$62.7 billion
and capital plans, to manage short‑term cash movements, to build and
maintain its cash reserve and to lend money to various provincial corporations.
These provincial corporations include two self‑supporting lending organizations,
the Alberta Capital Finance Authority5 and the Agriculture Financial Services
Corporation. It also includes three government business enterprises: ATB
Financial, the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission and the Balancing
Pool. These five corporations have income producing assets used to make
payments on the debt, so their debt is not considered part of taxpayer
supported debt.
DR19_chrt_04.pdf Management of the debt aims to minimize interest costs while prudently
managing interest rate, refinancing, liquidity and other risks.
There are three key strategies. Maintaining access to multiple markets reduces
interest costs and enhances liquidity. And managing the maturities of the debt
5 It is proposed in budget legislation that the Alberta Capital Finance Authority (ACFA) be dissolved. The
program of providing low cost loans to local authorities will be continued by the province. The assets and
liabilities of ACFA will be transferred to the province. Existing and new loans will continue to support the
debt incurred to finance them.

Debt Outstanding by Type
At March 31, 2019
minimizes the amount of debt maturing in any year. This second strategy
reduces refinancing risk and interest rate risk. Liquidity risk is reduced by
March 31, 2019
holding a prudent amount of cash needed to meet expected near‑term cash
flows. This also helps to avoid issuing debt in unfavourable market conditions.
The province uses both short‑term debt (maturity in one day to one year)
and long‑term debt (maturity in one year and more). As of March 31, 2019,
outstanding short‑term debt was $7.5 billion, and outstanding long‑term debt 3%
88%
was $75.5 billion. The province also had $2.9 billion in P3 liabilities at that time.
9%
The province issues short‑term debt for two purposes. First, short‑term debt is
often issued for roughly one to 15 days to manage fluctuating cash balances.
Second, short‑term debt is often issued and re‑financed regularly upon maturity
Budget 2019
to mimic debt with a floating interest rate. This method of achieving a floating Short-term debt
Debt Reduction
interest rate exposure is typically more cost‑effective than issuing floating rate Long-term debt
bonds. About 60 per cent of outstanding short‑term debt is used to meet the Short-Term Debt by Market
P3s
financing needs of provincial corporations. 31-Mar-19
Long‑term debt is raised in Canadian and global capital markets through the Short‑Term Debt by Market
March 31, 2019
sale of bonds to investors, including pension funds, insurance companies, banks
and other institutional investment managers. DR19_chrt_05.pdf
Selling bonds is less costly and more flexible than other forms of long‑term
borrowing, such as bank loans. Bonds typically have a fixed interest rate,
but bonds with a floating interest rate can also be issued. Payments before 66%
the maturity of the bond are most often interest‑only payments, leaving the 34%
entire principal amount, or par value, to be repaid on the bond’s maturity

date. The province uses long‑term debt for most of its financing requirements
and those of provincial corporations.
Government borrows from multiple markets across the globe to lower costs Budget
and 2019
maintain strong access to liquidity. Debt Reduction Canada USA
While most long‑term debt is issued in Canadian markets, the province Long-Term Debt by Market
has a target to issue between 30 per cent and 40 per cent of long‑term debt
31-Mar-19
in foreign markets, depending on market conditions. It is important to Long‑Term Debt by Market
note that government takes no currency‑related risks when issuing debt in March 31, 2019
foreign currencies6.
Short‑term debt is issued in both Canada and the United States, while DR19_chrt_06.pdf
5%
long‑term debt is issued in Canada and other markets. Provincial debt has been
7%
issued in seven different foreign currencies to date (American dollars, Euros,
68%
British pounds, Australian dollars, Swiss francs, Swedish krona and South
African rand). The province will also look at issuing debt in other currencies
20%
if it reduces borrowing costs. Investors around the world buy Alberta’s debt,
regardless of currency.
Canada USA
6 The primary reason for this policy is that movements in the value of the Canadian dollar tend to be strongly
Europe Other
correlated with the price of oil. When the price of oil goes down, typically the value of the Canadian dollar Path: \\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publication
also goes down. The province’s revenues and economic health are also strongly correlated with oil prices.
Falling oil prices that result in a falling Canadian dollar would cause Alberta’s foreign debt to be more File: Charts Spreadsheet
expensive in Canadian dollars at the same time that the province’s revenues have declined. Tab: Chart5
DR19_chrt_07.pdf
Budget 2019 PDF Nam
Debt Reduction
Short-Term Debt Maturities
31-Mar-19
Short‑Term Debt Maturities

March 31, 2019
Budget 20192019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 PDF Na

Debt Reduction
Long-Term Debt Maturities
Long‑Term Debt Maturities
31-Mar-19
March 31, 2019
DR19_chrt_08.pdf
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Alberta issues debt with maturities ranging from one day to over 30 years.
Most short‑term debt is issued with an initial term to maturity of three
months or less. Long‑term debt is most commonly issued in terms of five,
10 and 30 years. While other terms to maturity are available, bonds with five,
DR19_chrt_09.pdf
10 or 30 year terms to maturity have the greatest demand.
On March 31, 2019, outstanding taxpayer supported short‑term debt had
an average term to maturity of 46 days and an average cost of 1.95 per cent.
The average term to maturity of taxpayer supported long‑term debt on
March 31, 2019, was 12.2 years and the average cost was 2.74 per cent.
The \\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\TRM\Budget\2019\SourceDocuments\
Path: average term to maturity for all taxpayer supported debt was 11.2 years
andCharts
File: the average cost was 2.57 per cent on March 31, 2019.
Spreadsheet
Tab: Chart8 Last Updated: 20
Projections
It is projected that government will need to borrow $15.1 billion in 2019‑20.
Of this, roughly $2.8 billion will be raised by increasing short‑term debt
outstanding, $113 million will be financed using P3s and $12.2 billion will be
raised in long‑term debt markets. In the following years, it is projected that the
province will require between $12.3 billion and $15.3 billion in financing.
The vast majority of borrowing will be completed using long‑term debt.
The borrowing strategy will be similar to that of the recent past: build liquid
benchmark bonds, target 30 to 40 per cent to be issued in foreign markets, and
issue debt in multiple terms to maturity out to 30 years.
Borrowing Requirements
2019‑20 2020‑21 2021‑22 2022‑23
Government New financing 9,579 9,058 6,201 6,233
Refinancing 3,899 3,071 3,679 3,274
Total 13,478 12,129 9,880 9,507
Provincial corporations New financing 247 658 838 1,084
Refinancing 568 2,027 1,242 1,856
Total 815 2,685 2,080 2,940
Government business enterprises New financing 608 250 311 153
Refinancing 200 200 0 0
Total 808 450 311 153
Total borrowing requirements New financing 10,434 9,966 7,350 7,470
Refinancing 4,667 5,298 4,921 5,128
Total 15,101 15,264 12,271 12,600
2019‑20 2020‑21 2021‑22 2022‑23

Borrowing Sources
Money market (net change) 2,774 150 211 55
Public private partnerships 113 151 46 0
Long‑term debt 12,214 14,963 12,014 12,545
Total 15,101 15,264 12,271 12,600
Consolidated debt service costs are estimated to be $2.3 billion in 2019‑20.

Debt service costs on taxpayer supported debt are projected to be $1.8 billion
in 2019‑20. This represents 3.7 per cent of estimated total revenues.
Projected Debt Service Costs

2018‑19 2019‑20 2020‑21 2021‑22 2022‑23
Direct debt 1,406 1,719 1,958 2,180 2,381
Public private partnerships 121 118 122 129 129
Taxpayer supported debt service costs 1,527 1,837 2,080 2,309 2,510
Self‑supporting provincial corporations 444 428 440 471 503
Total consolidated debt service costs 1,971 2,265 2,520 2,780 3,013

Taxpayer supported debt is estimated to be $71.8 billion at the end of the
current fiscal year. This is equal to almost 21 per cent of GDP and 144 per cent
of revenue. Taxpayer supported debt per capita is forecast to be $16,386. Net
taxpayer supported debt is projected to be $46.3 billion at year’s end. In relative
terms, it will be over 13 per cent of GDP and just under 93 per cent of revenue.
On a per capita basis, net taxpayer supported debt is expected to be $10,574.
Projected Debt Amounts

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Taxpayer supported debt 62,657 71,790 80,851 87,046 93,267
Investment funds 25,542 25,446 25,899 26,418 26,964
Net taxpayer supported debt 37,115 46,344 54,952 60,628 66,303
Cash Management Improvements

The most important step in slowing, and ultimately reversing, the growth of
Alberta’s debt and interest costs is to balance the budget. Government also will
improve how it manages its cash resources.
First, government will close a number of regulated funds that are no longer
required. Spending on the funds’ purpose will not change, but will come
directly out of government’s budget. The regulated funds being closed are
the Lottery Fund, the Access to the Future Fund, the Alberta Cancer Legacy
Prevention Fund, the Historic Resources Fund and the Environmental
Protection and Enhancement Fund. Money in those funds are expected to
reduce borrowing requirements by about $650 million and save roughly
$13 million annually in interest costs.
Other measures to improve cash management and reduce the need to borrow
will be identified and evaluated in future years. One proposed change currently
being analyzed is to reduce the cash reserve from $5 billion to $4 billion.
The cash reserve was established in 2017‑18 to protect government against
market disruptions that might affect borrowing needed to maintain operations.
A smaller cash reserve will be sufficient for future reduced spending on
government operations. The $1 billion reduction in the cash reserve means
government can reduce its debt by the same amount. This proposal, if
implemented, is expected to save about $25 million in interest annually.

Budget 2019 PDF Name:
Debt Reduction
Debt Metrics
Taxpayer Supported Debt per Capita
Taxpayer Supported Debt Per Capita
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Budget 2019 PDF Name: DR19_chrt_11.pdf

Debt Reduction
Net Taxpayer Supported Debt per Capita
Net Taxpayer Supported Debt per Capita
20,000
DR19_chrt_10.pdf
15,000
10,000
5,000
-5,000
-10,000
Debt Reduction
Taxpayer Supported Debt to GDP
Taxpayer Supported Debt to GDP
30%
DR19_chrt_11.pdf
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Path: \\ter-fin-fs-01.fin.gov.ab.ca\Publications\TRM\Budget\2019\SourceDocuments\
File:Debt
Charts Spreadsheet
| Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 173
Tab: Chart10 Last Updated: 2019-10-17 @ 9:12 AM
DR19_chrt_12.pdf
Budget 2019 PDF Na
Debt Reduction
Net Taxpayer Supported Debt to GDP
Net Taxpayer Supported Debt to GDP

20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Budget 2019 PDF Nam
Debt Reduction
Taxpayer Supported Debt to Revenue

Taxpayer Supported Debt to Revenue
DR19_chrt_13.pdf
175%
150%
125%
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Budget 2019
Debt Reduction
Net Taxpayer Supported Debt to Revenue
DR19_chrt_14.pdf
Net Taxpayer Supported Debt to Revenue
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
-150%
File: Charts Spreadsheet
Tab: Chart13 Last Updated:
DR19_chrt_15.pdf
Debt Reduction
Debt Service Costs to Revenue
Debt Service Costs to Revenue
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
DR19_chrt_16.pdf
File: Charts Spreadsheet
Tab:
Debt Chart16
| Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 Last Updated: 2019-10-15 @ 2:28175
PM
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176
BUDGET 2019
Fiscal Plan
Tables
177
Table of Contents
Fiscal Plan Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
Summary Statement of Operations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179

Summary Statement of Financial Position . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
Fiscal Plan Schedules. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180

Schedule 1: Consolidated Fiscal Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
Schedule 2: Statement of Financial Position. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
Schedule 3: Capital Assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
Schedule 4: Statement of Operations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
Schedule 5: Revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Schedule 6: Operating Expense . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
Schedule 7: Debt Servicing Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
Schedule 8: Capital Amortization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
Schedule 9: Inventory Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
Schedule 10: Inventory Acquisition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
Schedule 11: Contingency and Disaster and Emergency Assistance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
Schedule 12: Borrowing Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
Schedule 13: Borrowing Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
Schedule 14: Pension Liabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
Schedule 15: Cash Adjustments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
Schedule 16: Capital Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
Schedule 17: Capital Grants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
Schedule 18: Capital Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Schedule 19: Capital Plan Liability / Fiscal Plan Borrowing Principal Repayments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Schedule 20: Capital Plan Funding Sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Schedule 21: Full-Time Equivalents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
Schedule 22: Changes to Fees. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
Schedule 23: Expense by Object. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
Schedule 24: Expense by Function. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
Schedule 25: Historical Fiscal Summary, 2008–09 to 2022–23 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
178 Tables | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

pdf name: B19_FP_TBS_ssoo.pdf Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Table Section
Summary Statement of Operations

Summary Statement of Operations
Revenue 49,624 50,016 50,079 53,629 57,543

Expense 56,329 56,540 55,212 55,482 55,759
Surplus / (deficit) before CBR / contingency / forecast allowance (6,705) (6,524) (5,133) (1,853) 1,784
Crude-by-rail provision (CBR) 6 1,500 - - -
Contingency / disaster assistance - 680 750 750 750
Surplus / (deficit) (6,711) (8,704) (5,883) (2,603) 584
Net assets at the beginning of the year1 29,671 23,267 14,563 8,680 6,077
Net assets at end of year 23,267 14,563 8,680 6,077 6,661
pdf Includes
1 name: B19_FP_TBS_ssofp
adjustments to net assets as reported in the annual consolidated financial statements. Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan Tables Section
1
Includes adjustments to net assets as reported in the annual consolidated financial statements.
Summary Statement of Financial Position

pdf named:
Summary
(millions B19_FP_TBS_ssoo.pdf
Statement of Financial Position
of dollars)
(millions of dollars) At March 31
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Financial Assets 75,743 72,795 74,349 77,804 82,115
Liabilities 103,220 109,421 118,067 124,723 128,509
Net Financial Debt (27,477) (36,626) (43,718) (46,919) (46,394)
Capital / Other Non-financial Assets 53,908 54,557 55,880 56,565 56,659
Deferred capital contributions (3,164) (3,368) (3,482) (3,569) (3,604)
Net Assets 23,267 14,563 8,680 6,077 6,661
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_ssofp.pdf
M:\MinShare\PublnsProd\CorpFin\OBM.PUBLNS-2019-20\B19_Fiscal-Plan_vol\07_FiscalPlan_TABLES_B19\source_docs_Tables\
Tables | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23
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B19_FP_TBS_03_cfs.pdf Budget 2019 / Fiscal Plan Tables
Consolidated Fiscal Summary

(millions of1:
Schedule dollars)
Consolidated
Fiscal Summary (millions of dollars)
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Statement of Operations Actual Estimate Target Target Target
1 Total Revenue 49,624 50,016 50,079 53,629 57,543
Expense
2 Operating expense 48,434 48,199 47,335 47,179 47,095
3 % change from prior year 4.0 (0.5) (1.8) (0.3) (0.2)
4 Disaster and emergency assistance 507 636 - - -
5 Capital grants 1,952 2,086 1,957 1,999 2,024
6 Amortization / inventory consumption / loss on disposals 3,651 3,691 3,775 3,848 3,875
7 Debt servicing costs – general 1,074 1,246 1,355 1,482 1,610
8 Debt servicing costs – Capital Plan 897 1,019 1,165 1,298 1,403
9 Pension provisions (190) (337) (375) (324) (248)
10 Expense 56,329 56,540 55,212 55,482 55,759
11 Surplus / (deficit) before CBR / contingency / forecast allowance (6,705) (6,524) (5,133) (1,853) 1,784
12 Crude-by-rail provision (CBR - Energy) 6 1,500 - - -
13 Contingency and disaster and emergency assistance - 680 750 750 750
14 Revenue forecast allowance - - - - 450
15 Surplus / (Deficit) (6,711) (8,704) (5,883) (2,603) 584
Capital Plan
16 Capital grants 1,952 2,086 1,957 1,999 2,024
17 Capital investment 4,105 4,119 4,615 3,997 3,383
18 Total Capital Plan 6,057 6,206 6,572 5,996 5,407
Cash adjustments / borrowing requirements (at March 31)

19 Cash at start of year 1,661 6,342 3,500 3,500 3,500
20 Surplus / (deficit) (6,711) (8,704) (5,883) (2,603) 584
21 Cash adjustments (for details, see table on page 187)
22 Retained income of funds and agencies (1,191) (42) (1,209) (1,105) (1,178)
23 Other cash adjustments (817) (511) 263 (804) (956)
24 Capital cash adjustments 1,904 1,777 2,283 2,181 2,265
Total cash requirements (6,815) (7,480) (4,546) (2,331) 715
25 Cash to be transferred next year / from prior-year final results (854) 854 - - -
26 Pre-borrowing for cash management purposes 7,198 3,500 3,500 3,500 7,000
27 Direct borrowing required (without pre-borrowing) 5,153 283 1,045 (1,170) (4,215)
28 Cash at end of year 6,342 3,500 3,500 3,500 7,000
Taxpayer-supported Liabilities / Borrowing (at March 31)

Liabilities for Capital Projects
29 Opening balance 29,339 33,597 36,983 41,499 45,364
30 Alternative financing (P3s – public-private partnerships) 128 113 151 46 -
31 Direct borrowing 4,177 3,320 4,362 3,825 3,448
32 Re-financing of existing debt 500 3,899 3,071 1,753 1,669
33 Principal repayments / amortization of debt issue costs (547) (3,946) (3,068) (1,759) (1,681)
34 Total Liabilities for Capital Projects 33,597 36,983 41,499 45,364 48,800
Borrowing for the Fiscal Plan / Other General Purposes
35 Opening balance 19,227 29,060 34,807 39,352 41,682
36 Direct borrowing for Fiscal Plan 12,351 3,783 4,545 2,330 2,785
37 Other general purpose borrowing (short-term; reserve; ASHC) (2,518) 2,364 - - -
38 Re-financing of existing debt - - - 1,926 1,603
39 Principal repayments - (400) - (1,926) (1,603)
40 Total Borrowing for the Fiscal Plan / Other 29,060 34,807 39,352 41,682 44,467
41 Total Taxpayer-supported Debt - Capital Projects / Fiscal Plan / Other 62,657 71,790 80,851 87,046 93,267
42 Percentage of nominal Alberta GDP 18.0% 19.9% 21.9% 22.2% 22.5%
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pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_05_bsd.pdf Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Balance Sheet Details

Schedule 2: Statement of Financial Position
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Financial Assets
Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund 15,956 16,227 16,535 16,866 17,203
Endowment funds:
Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research 1,778 1,820 1,908 2,010 2,118
Alberta Heritage Science and Engineering Research 1,076 1,106 1,141 1,191 1,248
Alberta Heritage Scholarship 1,281 1,293 1,315 1,351 1,395
Alberta Cancer Prevention Legacy Fund 451 - - - -
Alberta Enterprise Corporation 158 161 160 159 158
Contingency Account 6,342 - - - -
Self-supporting lending organizations:
Alberta Capital Finance Authority 16,478 16,900 17,144 17,294 17,472
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation 5,507 5,850 6,284 6,747 7,223
Equity in commercial enterprises 3,062 3,276 3,549 3,686 3,862
Student loans 2,884 3,254 3,603 3,968 4,299
Climate funds (TIER Fund / Energy Efficiency Ab. / carbon tax) 879 545 545 545 545
Cash Reserve 2,268 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
Other financial assets (including SUCH sector / Alberta Innovates Corp.) 17,623 17,363 17,165 18,987 21,592
Total Financial Assets 75,743 72,795 74,349 77,804 82,115
Liabilities
Taxpayer-supported debt:
Direct borrowing for the Capital Plan 30,651 33,990 38,429 42,331 45,856
Alternative financing (P3s - Public-private partnerships - Capital Plan) 2,946 2,993 3,070 3,033 2,944
Debt issued to reduce pre-1992 TPP unfunded liability 944 594 594 594 594
Direct borrowing for the Fiscal Plan 25,430 29,213 33,758 36,088 38,873
Other debt (short-term; ASHC; reserve) 2,686 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
Total taxpayer-supported debt 62,657 71,790 80,851 87,046 93,267
Self-supporting lending organization debt:
Alberta Capital Finance Authority 15,902 16,042 16,600 17,339 18,319
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation 2,232 2,339 2,439 2,538 2,642
Total debt 80,791 90,171 99,890 106,923 114,228
Coal phase-out liabilities 983 914 842 769 693

Pension liabilities 9,240 8,903 8,528 8,204 7,956
Other liabilities (including SUCH sector / Alberta Innovates Corp.) 12,206 9,433 8,807 8,827 5,632
Total Liabilities 103,220 109,421 118,067 124,723 128,509
Net Financial Assets (27,477) (36,626) (43,718) (46,919) (46,394)
Capital / Other Non-financial Assets 53,908 54,557 55,880 56,565 56,659
pdf named:
Deferred B19_FP_TBS_cap-assets.pdf
capital contributions (3,164) (3,368) (3,482) Budget
(3,569) 2019
(3,604)
Net Assets 23,267 14,563 8,680 Fiscal
6,077Plan Tables
6,661
Capital Assets
Schedule 3: Capital Assets
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Net book value at start of the year 51,399 52,925 53,888 55,216 55,906
Additions (capital investment) 4,105 4,119 4,615 3,997 3,383
Contingency - (600) (650) (600) (550)
Amortization (2,472) (2,556) (2,637) (2,707) (2,734)
Net book value of capital asset disposals / adjustments (107) - - - -
Net Book Value at End of Year
M:\MinShare\PublnsProd\CorpFin\OBM.PUBLNS-2019-20\B19_Fiscal- 52,925 53,888 55,216 55,906 56,005
Plan_vol\07_FiscalPlan_TABLES_B19\source_docs_Tables\
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pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_cap-assets.pdf
Fiscal Plan Tables
Statement of Operations
Schedule 4: Statement
of Operations
Revenue
Other taxes 6,833 5,766 5,803 5,991 6,207
Non-renewable resource revenue 5,429 6,527 5,386 6,738 8,591
Investment income 2,349 2,585 2,697 2,893 3,009
Net income from govt. business enterprises 2,585 2,417 2,558 2,495 2,580
Premiums, fees and licences 3,911 3,872 4,047 4,131 4,241
Other 3,759 3,482 3,472 3,473 3,446
Total Revenue 49,624 50,016 50,079 53,629 57,543
Expense a
Advanced Education 6,094 5,842 5,709 5,614 5,504
Agriculture and Forestry 1,434 1,411 874 869 866
Children's Services 1,492 1,586 1,639 1,695 1,719
Community and Social Services 3,636 3,910 3,910 3,910 3,910
Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women 327 277 259 221 191
Economic Development, Trade and Tourism 356 295 284 298 308
Education 8,637 8,580 8,581 8,585 8,589
Energy 735 751 586 601 592
Environment and Parks 748 724 697 667 663
Executive Council 17 20 17 17 17
Health 21,915 22,105 22,197 22,177 22,208
Indigenous Relations 261 198 195 183 183
Infrastructure 639 613 621 614 601
Justice and Solicitor General 1,454 1,454 1,397 1,359 1,362
Labour and Immigration 209 220 209 212 207
Municipal Affairs 1,229 1,521 1,435 1,380 1,342
Seniors and Housing 726 704 716 712 711
Service Alberta 688 675 621 605 596
Transportation 1,584 1,703 1,499 1,726 1,815
Treasury Board and Finance 2,221 1,861 1,487 1,443 1,444
Legislative Assembly 137 159 133 133 164
Total Program Expense 54,548 54,612 53,067 53,026 52,994
Expense 56,329 56,540 55,212 55,482 55,759
Surplus / (deficit) before CBR / contingency / forecast allowance (6,705) (6,524) (5,133) (1,853) 1,784
Crude-by-rail provision (CBR - Energy) 6 1,500 - - -
Contingency / disaster assistance - 680 750 750 750
Surplus / (deficit) (6,711) (8,704) (5,883) (2,603) 584
Beginning net assets (+ adjustments) 29,671 23,267 14,563 8,680 6,077

Net assets at end of year 23,267 14,563 8,680 6,077 6,661
a 2018-19 numbers have been restated on the 2019-20 basis, incorporating ministry reorganizations under the Government Organization
Act, on April 30, 2019 (O.C. #89/2019), and on October 24, 2019 under the Appropriation Act, 2019. For specifc details, please refer to
page iii of the Preface to the 2019-20 Government Estimates.
182
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Revenue (millions of dollars)

Schedule 5: Revenue
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Income Taxes
16,745 16,167 17,233 18,482 19,723
Other Taxes
Education property tax (includes opted-out boards) 2,441 2,455 2,567 2,661 2,767
Fuel tax 1,394 1,397 1,433 1,464 1,502
Tobacco tax 873 864 865 855 855
Insurance taxes 612 650 702 757 816
Tourism levy 90 88 92 97 102
Freehold mineral rights tax 67 67 70 78 81
Cannabis tax 30 70 74 79 84
Carbon tax 1,324 175 - - -
6,833 5,766 5,803 5,991 6,207
Bitumen royalty 3,214 4,682 3,492 4,470 6,131
Natural gas and by-products royalty 536 362 487 700 777
Bonuses and sales of Crown leases 360 164 239 287 291
Rentals and fees / coal royalty 170 156 134 128 120
5,429 6,527 5,386 6,738 8,591
Canada Health Transfer 4,461 4,697 4,891 5,090 5,320
Canada Social Transfer 1,637 1,705 1,766 1,831 1,901
Direct transfers to SUCH sector / Alberta Innovates Corporation 522 568 580 595 607
Infrastructure support 397 912 586 813 867
Agriculture support programs 272 271 267 268 268
Labour market agreements 255 276 299 314 314
Other (includes 2019-20 fiscal stabilization payment) 469 771 494 515 469
8,013 9,200 8,883 9,426 9,746
Investment Income
Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund 1,071 1,286 1,217 1,336 1,422
Endowment funds 234 269 304 346 367
Alberta Capital Finance Authority 359 358 485 497 509
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation 138 137 142 149 157
Other (includes SUCH sector) 547 535 549 565 554
2,349 2,585 2,697 2,893 3,009
Net Income from Government Business Enterprises
AGLC – Gaming / lottery 1,446 1,414 1,410 1,454 1,481
AGLC – Liquor 860 823 910 928 947
AGLC – Cannabis (34) (31) (34) (24) (25)
ATB Financial 139 153 243 284 284
Balancing Pool 361 210 85 94 103
Other (CUDGCo and APMC) (187) (152) (56) (241) (211)
2,585 2,417 2,558 2,495 2,580
Premiums, Fees and Licences
Post-secondary institution tuition fees 1,256 1,309 1,396 1,467 1,540
Health / school board fees and charges 701 697 705 714 723
Motor vehicle licences 520 526 546 549 554
Crop, hail and livestock insurance premiums 323 310 334 348 360
Energy industry levies 330 320 302 306 296
Other (includes land titles, lands and grazing, health benefit premiums) 781 710 764 746 768
3,911 3,872 4,047 4,131 4,241
Other
SUCH sector sales, rentals and services 968 1,053 1,067 1,081 1,094
SUCH sector fundraising, donations, gifts and contributions 809 686 701 712 720
AIMCo investment management charges 406 360 360 360 361
Fines and penalties 200 221 258 259 259
Refunds of expense 367 194 195 196 197
Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction Fund 528 556 478 454 415
Miscellaneous (includes Alberta Innovates Corporation) 481 412 412 411 400
3,759 3,482 3,472 3,473 3,446
Total Revenue 49,624 50,016 50,079 53,629 57,543
Tables | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 183
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pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_08_oe.pdf Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Operating Expense
Schedule 6: Operating Expense
Advanced Education 5,392 5,117 4,976 4,866 4,756
Agriculture and Forestry 967 879 834 824 822
Children's Services 1,492 1,586 1,639 1,695 1,719
Community and Social Services 3,634 3,910 3,910 3,910 3,910
Education 8,223 8,223 8,223 8,223 8,223
Energy 552 601 501 529 519
Executive Council 17 20 17 17 17
Health 20,409 20,610 20,616 20,632 20,672
Justice and Solicitor General 1,452 1,449 1,391 1,353 1,356
Municipal Affairs 263 240 225 223 222
Transportation 443 411 376 374 372
Treasury Board and Finance 2,199 1,837 1,462 1,419 1,419
Pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_07_dsc.pdf Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Debt Servicing Costs

Schedule 7: Debt Servicing Costs
Taxpayer-supported general debt servicing costs
Education – school boards 10 9 9 9 9
Seniors and Housing – Alberta Social Housing Corporation 5 5 - - -
Treasury Board and Finance 615 804 906 1,002 1,098
Total 630 818 915 1,011 1,107
Taxpayer-supported Capital Plan debt servicing costs
Education – Alberta Schools Alternative Procurement P3s 28 28 27 26 26
Transportation – ring road P3s 92 90 95 103 103
Treasury Board and Finance – direct borrowing 777 901 1,043 1,169 1,274
Total 897 1,019 1,165 1,298 1,403
Total taxpayer-supported debt servicing costs 1,527 1,837 2,080 2,309 2,510
Self-supported debt servicing costs
Treasury Board and Finance – Ab. Capital Finance Authority 373 358 367 395 426
Treasury Board and Finance – Ag. Financial Services Corp. 71 70 73 76 77
Total 444 428 440 471 503
Total Debt Servicing Costs 1,971 2,265 2,520 2,780 3,013
184
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pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_09_ca.pdf Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Capital Amortization
Schedule 8: Capital Amortization
2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Advanced Education 525 550 555 566 566

Community and Social Services 1 1 1 1 1
Education 413 356 357 361 365
Energy 18 14 14 14 14
Health 544 573 605 612 612
Justice and Solicitor General 2 6 6 6 6
Treasury Board and Finance 22 24 25 24 25
Total Amortization Expense 2,472 2,556 2,637 2,707 2,734
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_09_ic.pdf Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Inventory Consumption
Schedule 9: Inventory Consumption
Health 921 894 894 894 894
Total Inventory Consumption 1,163 1,134 1,137 1,140 1,140
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_14_ia.pdf Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Inventory Acquisition
Schedule 10: Inventory Acquisition
Health 943 888 888 888 888
Total Inventory Acquisition 1,181 1,128 1,132 1,135 1,135
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pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_08_dea.pdf Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Contingency / Disaster and Emergency Assistance

Schedule 11: Contingency and Disaster and Emergency Assistance
Agriculture and Forestry – agriculture support 193 - - - -
Agriculture and Forestry – wildfire fighting 233 485 - - -
Municipal Affairs – wildfire / flood support 80 151 - - -
Treasury Board and Finance – contingency - 680 750 750 750
Total Disaster / Emergency Assistance 507 1,316 750 750 750
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_15_br.pdf Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Borrowing Requirements
Schedule 12: Borrowing Requirements
(millions of dollars) 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Government 13,478 12,129 9,880 9,507
Provincial corporations 815 2,685 2,080 2,940
Government business enterprises 808 450 311 153
Total borrowing requirements 15,101 15,264 12,271 12,600
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_15_bs.pdf Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Borrowing Sources
Schedule 13: Borrowing Sources
(millions of dollars) 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Money market (net change) 2,774 150 211 53
Public-private partneships (P3s) 113 151 46 -
Term debt 12,214 14,963 12,014 12,547
Total borrowing sources 15,101 15,264 12,271 12,600
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_15_pl.pdf Budget 2019

Fiscal Plan Tables
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_15_bs.pdf - - - -

Pension Liabilities a
Schedule 14: Pension Liabilities
a
Forecastofand
(millions maturities numbers include new requirements and maturing debt (money market and long-term debt).
dollars) At March 31
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Teachers' Pension Plan (pre-1992) 7,739 7,503 7,277 7,042 6,799
Teachers' Pension Plan (post-1992) 340 227 83 - -
Public Service Management Pension Plan (pre-1992; closed) b 473 445 412 379 344
Universities Academic Pension Plan (pre-1992) 259 319 334 349 365
Special Forces Pension Plan (pre-1992) 93 69 69 69 69
b
Members of the Legislative Assembly Pension Plan (closed) 40 39 37 35 32
Public Service Supplementary Retirement Plan 70 68 76 86 96
Provincial Judges and Masters in Chambers Pension Plan - 4 13 23 35
SUCH sector – Universities Academic / Supp. Executive Retirement Plans 226 229 227 221 216
Total Pension Liabilities 9,240 8,903 8,528 8,204 7,956
Annual non-cash change in pension liabilities (190) (337) (375) (324) (248)
a The following public service pension plans are fully funded, and thus not included above: the Local Authorities Pension Plan, the Public
Service Pension Plan and the Management Employees Pension Plan.
b Membership closed and pensionable service no longer being accrued.
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Fiscal Plan Tables
Cash Adjustmentsa
Schedule 15: Cash Adjustments a
Retained Income of Funds and Agencies

Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund inflation-proofing (374) (271) (308) (331) (337)
ATB Financial (139) (153) (243) (284) (284)
Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (153) (377) (388) (401) (410)
Heritage Foundation for Medical Research Endowment Fund (18) (42) (88) (102) (108)
Heritage Science and Engineering Research Endowment Fund (18) (30) (35) (50) (57)
Heritage Scholarship Fund (12) (12) (22) (36) (44)
Alberta Social Housing Corporation (83) 250 (18) 4 6
Alberta Capital Finance Authority (38) (33) (48) (42) (42)
Alberta Cancer Prevention Legacy Fund 14 389 - - -
Credit Union Deposit Guarantee Corporation (22) (23) (24) (23) (23)
Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission 215 172 79 264 234
Carbon tax account (236) 282 - - -
Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction Fund (126) 52 - - -
Balancing Pool (361) (210) (85) (94) (103)
Other 160 (35) (28) (11) (11)
Total Retained Income of Funds and Agencies (1,191) (42) (1,209) (1,105) (1,178)
Other Cash Adjustments

SUCH sector own-source revenue (4,858) (4,887) (5,036) (5,169) (5,299)
SUCH sector own-source expense 5,600 5,229 5,225 5,173 5,203
Net deferred capital contribution cash adjustment 75 144 54 27 (25)
Energy royalties (difference between accrued revenue & cash) 139 (50) 617 (74) (174)
Student loans (337) (370) (349) (365) (331)
Inventory acquisition (132) (133) (135) (135) (135)
Other cash adjustments (1,084) (219) (39) (112) (79)
2013 Alberta flood assistance revenue / expense (110) 8 170 59 -
Wood Buffalo wildfire revenue / expense (44) (29) (2) (16) -
Pension provisions (non-cash expense) (190) (337) (375) (324) (248)
Inventory consumption (non-cash expense) 124 133 134 132 132
Total Other Cash Adjustments (817) (511) 263 (804) (956)
Capital cash adjustments

Capital investment (excluding SUCH sector self-financed) (3,280) (3,412) (3,946) (3,392) (2,855)
Capital Plan contingency - 600 650 600 550
Current principal repayments (P3s – public-private partnerships) (64) (66) (74) (83) (89)
Withdrawal from / (deposit to) Capital Plan financing account (68) 123 - - -
Direct borrowing for Capital Plan 4,177 3,320 4,362 3,824 3,448
Alternative financing (P3s – public-private partnerships) 128 113 151 46 -
Amortization (excluding SUCH sector - non-cash expense) 995 1,099 1,140 1,186 1,211
Book value of asset disposals (net non-cash expense / revenue) 16 - - - -
Total Capital Cash Adjustments 1,904 1,777 2,283 2,181 2,265
a Negative cash adjustments are a cash requirement; positive cash adjustments are a cash source.
Tables | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 Oct.xlsx/Cash Adjustm p14 10/10/2019/4:23 PM
187
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_12_cp.pdf Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Capital Plana
Schedule 16: Capital Plan a
Actual b Estimate Target Target Target
Community and Social Services 2 1 1 1 1
Education 678 740 878 654 437
Energy 185 150 89 76 70
Health 925 1,067 1,268 1,162 1,077
Municipal Affairs 889 1,132 1,216 1,155 1,118
Transportation 1,757 1,790 1,785 1,832 1,752
Total Capital Plan 6,057 6,206 6,572 5,996 5,407
a The Capital Plan comprises capital grants included in expense plus capital investment in government-owned assets not included in
expense. Capital investment adds to government capital assets, and those assets are depreciated over time through amortization expense
included in total expense.
b 2018-19 Capital Plan (Capital Investment) numbers have been restated to correct for an error made at year-end overstating Education’s
Capital Investment by a net $123 million. Numbers have also been restated on a comparable basis to the Budget 2019 Fiscal Plan, by
removing $134 million from Infrastructure and moving $285 million from Infrastructure to Health. An accounting policy change made at
year-end 2018-19 adjusted allocation of school and health projects managed by Infrastructure and still in progress to be reported as
Infrastructure Capital Investment. For the Fiscal Plan, this reporting is being reversed, as ownership of the completed assets will eventually
reside with Education and Health entities.
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_13_cg.pdf Budget 2019

Fiscal Plan Tables
Capital Grants
Schedule 17: Capital Grants
Community and Social Services 1 - - - -
Economic Development, Trade and Tourism - 2 - - -
Education 1 1 1 1 1
Energy 165 136 71 58 58
Health 38 28 84 40 32
Municipal Affairs 884 1,127 1,207 1,152 1,115
Total Capital Grants 1,952 2,086 1,957 1,999 2,024
M:\MinShare\PublnsProd\CorpFin\OBM.PUBLNS-2019-20\B19_Fiscal-
X-BUDGET-2019_TABLESPRINT Oct.xlsx/Capital Plan p12 10/17/2019/2:13 PM
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_12_ci.pdf Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Capital Investment
Schedule 18: Capital Investment a
Community and Social Services - 1 1 1 1
Education 678 739 877 653 436
Energy 20 14 17 17 11
Health 887 1,039 1,184 1,121 1,045
Transportation 1,247 1,162 1,352 1,212 1,042
Total Capital Investment 4,105 4,119 4,615 3,997 3,383
a Capital investment is not included in expense. Rather, the assets are added to government capital assets and depreciated over time
Pdfthrough
named: B19_FP_TBS_13_cplpr.pdf
amortization expense.
Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Fiscal Plan and Capital Plan Liability Principal Repayments

Schedule 19: Capital Plan Liability / Fiscal Plan Borrowing Principal Repayments
Education – Alberta Schools Alternative Procurement P3s 15 16 17 17 18
Infrastructure – Evan Thomas water treatment P3 1 1 1 1 1
Transportation – ring road P3s 48 50 56 65 70
Seniors and Housing - Alberta Social Housing Corporation 2 50 - - -
Treasury Board and Finance – debt issued to reduce pre-1992 TPP liability - 350 - - -
Treasury Board and Finance – direct borrowing 500 4,249 3,071 3,680 3,272
Pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_13_lfcp.pdf Budget 2019
Total Principal Repayments 566 4,716 3,145 3,763 3,361
Fiscal Plan Tables
Capital Plan Funding Sources

Schedule 20: Capital Plan Funding Sources
Capital Plan, less 6,057 6,206 6,572 5,996 5,407
10% cash flow adjustment (rounded) - (600) (650) (600) (550)
Capital Plan funding requirements 6,057 5,606 5,922 5,396 4,857
Source of funding:
Cash received (primarily federal govt.) / donations / disposals 605 1,053 657 859 864
Retained income of funds and agencies (primarily ASHC) (69) 150 12 4 (41)
SUCH sector self-financed 825 707 668 604 528
TIER Fund (and carbon tax in 2018-19) 459 140 71 58 58
Alternative financing (P3s – public-private partnerships) 128 113 151 46 -
Direct borrowing 4,177 3,320 4,362 3,825 3,448
Withdrawal from / (deposit to) Capital Plan financing account (68) 123 - - -
M:\MinShare\PublnsProd\CorpFin\OBM.PUBLNS-2019-20\B19_Fiscal-
Total Capital Plan funding Sources 6,057 5,606 5,921 5,396 4,857
X-BUDGET-2019_TABLESPRINT Oct.xlsx/Capital Invest p12 10/17/2019/2:14 PM
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_16_fte.pdf Budget 2019- Fiscal Plan Tables
a
Full-Time 21:
Schedule Equivalents
Full-Time Equivalents a
2018-19 2019-20
Budget Estimate Change
Department
Advanced Education 575 540 (35)
Agriculture and Forestry 1,701 1,650 (51)
Children's Services 2,768 2,768 -
Community and Social Services 3,163 2,940 (223)
Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women 568 536 (32)
Economic Development, Trade and Tourism 373 348 (25)
Education 553 513 (40)
Energy 562 540 (22)
Environment and Parks 2,213 2,103 (110)
Executive Council 122 119 (3)
Health 910 846 (64)
Indigenous Relations 230 208 (22)
Infrastructure 938 890 (48)
Justice and Solicitor General 6,987 6,789 (198)
Labour and Immigration 816 858 42
Municipal Affairs 590 567 (23)
Seniors and Housing 269 267 (2)
Service Alberta 2,238 2,193 (45)
Transportation 732 893 161
Treasury Board and Finance – department 548 506 (42)
Treasury Board and Finance – Communications and Public Engagement 309 284 (25)
Treasury Board and Finance – Public Service Commission 710 658 (52)
Workforce re-allocation (35) - 35
Department 27,840 27,016 (824)
Agencies / SUCH sector / other arm's length entities
Advanced Education – Post-secondary institutions 33,588 33,288 (300)
Agriculture and Forestry – Agriculture Financial Services Corporation 630 630 -
Economic Development, Trade and Tourism – Travel Alberta Corporation 80 80 -
Economic Development and Trade – Alberta Enterprise Corporation 6 6 -
Economic Development and Trade – Alberta Innovates Corporation 712 612 (100)
Education - School boards (including Francophone / charter) -
Certificated Staff 37,197 37,366 169
Non-certificated Staff 26,452 26,973 521
Energy – Alberta Energy Regulator 1,240 970 (270)
Energy – Alberta Utilities Commission 143 136 (7)
Environment and Parks – Energy Efficiency Alberta 34 34 -
Environment and Parks – Natural Resources Conservation Board 47 47 -
Health – Alberta Health Services 80,570 80,570 -
Health – Health Quality Council of Alberta 35 35 -
Indigenous Relations - Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation - 9 9
Justice and Solicitor General – Victims of Crime Fund 54 64 10
Municipal Affairs – Safety Codes Council 60 60 -
Transportation – Transportation Safety Board 12 12 -
Treasury Board and Finance – Alberta Insurance Council 24 24 -
Treasury Board and Finance – Alberta Investment Management Corporation 427 452 25
Treasury Board and Finance – Alberta Local Authorities Pension Plan Corporation 8 - (8)
Treasury Board and Finance – Alberta Pensions Services Corporation 297 297 -
Treasury Board and Finance – Alberta Securities Commission 205 205 -
Legislative Assembly 746 757 11
Agencies / SUCH sector / other arm's length entities 182,567 182,627 60
Total Full-Time Equivalent Employment 210,407 209,643 (764)
a 2018-19 budget numbers have been restated on the 2019-20 basis, incorporating ministry reorganizations, and for updated information
where applicable.
S:\TBF\MinShare\PublnsProd\CorpFin\OBM.PUBLNS-2019-20\B19_Fiscal-Plan_vol\07_FiscalPlan_TABLES_B19\source_docs_Tables\
X-BUDGET-2019_TABLESPRINT Oct.xlsx/FTEs p16 10/18/2019/1:36 PM
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_18_ctf.pdf Budget 2019
Fiscal Plan Tables
Schedule 22: Changes to Fees
Changes to Fees
(dollars)
(dollars)
Ministry / Description 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Culture, Multiculturalism, and Status of Women
Royal Alberta and Royal Tyrell museums
Adult one / two-day pass $19 / $27 $19 / $27 $21/$29
Family one / two-day pass $48 / $69 $48 / $69 $50/$71
Special Exhibit Fee - - nil to $15
museums
Adult one-day pass $13 $13 $15
Family one-day pass $35 $35 $40
Experience Alberta
Adult annual pass $50 $50 $55
Family annual pass $120 $120 $125
Environment and Parks

Grazing lease rental rates (subject to change as amounts are dependent
on market cattle prices) $1.39 to $2.79 $1.39 to $2.79 $1.63 to $2.73
Certification renewal fee for certified water and wastewater operators - - $130
Health
Statement of benefits paid $25 $75 $75
Labour and Immigration

Alberta Immigrant Nominee Program
Application fee - - $500
Other services fees (e.g., letter of support / reconsideration, nomination extension,
application withdrawals) - - $100
Service Alberta
Motor vehicles
Operator / passenger $75 $80 $80
Non-commercial trailers pulled by a licensed vehicle (e.g., recreation vehicles,
campers) $100 $150 $150
Administrative changes (duplicate or exchange operator license,
reclassification of operator licence, etc.) $13 $15 $15
Land titles
Transfers / title creation - flat + variable fee (based on every $5,000) $1 $2 $2
Mortgages - flat + variable fee (based on every $5,000) $1 $2 $2
Discharge on interest $5 $10 $10
X-BUDGET-2019_TABLESPRINT Oct.xlsx/Changes Fees p18 10/10/2019/4:25 PM
pdf named: B19_FP_TBS_11_mebo_hor.pdf Budget 2019- Fiscal Plan Tables
192
Schedule 23: Expense by Object a

Ministry
(millions Expense by Object
of dollars)
aster
tory
ers
e
of Inventory
pens
ital
al Grants to Others
in-yea cated dis
2019- Expense
ther r/ /contingency and
rvices
Inven
to Oth
Capital
osts
and Services
Bene nd
gs
ssetsts tion of Cap
Servicing Costs
and
s
fits
a
vision
assistance
r savin
ion Provisions
20 Ex
Benefits
ing C
ers
nd Se
ages
on of
rantststo Others
ries,Wages
Grants
of
to Oth
unallo
otal2019-20
n Pro
onsumption
Servic
W
tization
umpti
lies a
loyee
mpoyee
tiza
alaies,
upplies
apital
ensio
andter
Salarie
Pensio
ebtS
Assets
Grants
Capita
Consu
Emplo
Amor
Suppli
mort
sast
Other
Total
Debt
Gra
Oth
Em
Am
dis
Ca
Co
De
Sa
Su
Pe
To
As
Legislative Assembly 79 61 - - 3 - - - 16 159
Advanced Education 3,463 1,042 538 - 550 175 3 - 74 5,845

Agriculture and Forestry 245 988 125 17 28 1 - - 6 1,411
Children's Services 295 665 626 - - - - - - 1,586
Community and Social Services 285 979 2,646 - 1 - - - - 3,910
Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women 60 31 126 49 8 1 - - 1 277
Economic Development , Trade and Tourism 117 74 95 2 7 - - - - 295
Education 6,380 1,467 376 1 356 - (113) 36 1 8,504
Energy 253 1,689 132 136 14 - - - 28 2,251
Environment and Parks 239 194 176 38 77 - - - 1 724
Executive Council 16 4 - - - - - - - 20
Health 8,431 5,603 6,574 28 573 894 - - 2 22,105
Indigenous Relations 24 7 159 8 - - - - - 198
Infrastructure 72 382 - 23 127 3 - - 6 613
Justice and Solicitor General 776 376 263 - 6 - - - 33 1,454
Labour and Immigration 109 57 53 - 1 - - - - 220
Municipal Affairs 80 39 271 1,127 3 - - - - 1,521
Seniors and Housing 27 9 601 25 42 - - 5 - 709
Service Alberta 229 308 - 5 122 10 - - 1 675
Transportation 78 332 2 627 615 50 - 90 - 1,793
Treasury Board and Finance 349 446 1,027 - 24 - (226) 2,133 15 3,769
Contingency and disaster assistance (voted in TB&F) - - - - - - - - 680 680

Total 2019-20 Expense 21,607 14,753 13,789 2,086 2,556 1,134 (337) 2,265 865 58,720
a Total expense includes provisions of $1.5 billion for crude-by-rail (Energy) and $680 million for contingency and disaster assistance (Treasury Board and Finance).
X-BUDGET-2019_TABLESPRINT Oct.xlsx/Exp by Object p11 10/11/2019/2:29 PM
Schedule 24: Expense by Function a

pdf name B19_FP_TBS_10_ebf_hor.pdf Budget 2019- Fiscal Plan Tables
Ministry Expense by Function
ent
ic Dev Managem
tions
des
ood
mmUtilities
isionsprovisions)
ment
and Economic
unica
n prov ment (inclu

elopand
and u (includes 2 and

ster)
013 fl
ngency and sdisaster
ense
019-2 Expense
ulture
and Culture
onal Planning and
pmen ing and

ce
ulture, Resource
s
ction of Persons
d disa
tilities , Coand
Costs
ral Government
er on
s)
and E re, Resour
0 Exp
saving
ertyon(includes
ebt Servicing
and C
pension
munications
vern
es
ociall Services
llocate
nn
portation,
P
rvicing
tation
2019-20
opment
opment
SeCosts
t
Servic
gement
conom
nt
nal Pla
nvironment
o
ral Go
tance)
-year
eation
onme
ecreation
ation
ducation
indes
a
ltu
nspor
operty
g
ng
otecti
n
nting
2
Recrea
otal 2
ousin
Deb
ensio
egion
asssista
evelo
ansp
evelo
Housin
velo
anag
Proper
Health
clud
nomm
Agricu
Protec
ealth
h
Educa
gricu
Enviro
pener
Social
dU
gio
Gene
Total
Debt
Dev
Dev
Soc
Env
con
nd
(inc
Pro
Pro
Tot
Tra
ra
Ma
Ge
He
Co
Re
Re
Ho
e
e
Ed
Ag
R
D
T
a
a
Legislative Assembly - - 16 - - - - - - - 144 - 159
Advanced Education - 5,842 - - - - - - - - 3 - 5,845

Agriculture and Forestry - - - 803 607 - - - - - - - 1,411
Children's Services - - 1,586 - - - - - - - - - 1,586
Community and Social Services - 64 3,847 - - - - - - - - - 3,910
Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women - - - 63 - - - - 212 - 1 - 277
Economic Development , Trade and Tourism 28 - - 258 - - 7 - - - 2 - 295
Education - 8,580 - - - - - - - - (113) 36 8,504
Energy - - - 2,032 - 33 - 159 - - 26 - 2,251
Environment and Parks - - - 117 1 - - 495 112 - - - 724
Executive Council - - - - - - - - - - 20 - 20
Health 22,105 - - - - - - - - - - - 22,105
Indigenous Relations - - - 6 - - 192 - - - - - 198
Infrastructure 7 7 - - - 3 - 48 - 1 547 - 613
Justice and Solicitor General - - 188 23 1,244 - - - - - - - 1,454
Labour and Immigration - 39 - 79 101 - - - - - - - 220
Municipal Affairs - - - - 215 - 1,224 - 37 - 45 - 1,521
Seniors and Housing - - 510 - - - - - - 195 - 5 709
Service Alberta - - - - 150 - - - - - 526 - 675
Transportation - - - - 47 1,655 - 2 - - - 90 1,793
Treasury Board and Finance 13 9 156 104 48 - 1 181 9 - 1,114 2,133 3,769
Contingency and disaster assistance (voted in TB&F) - - - - 680 - - - - - - - 680
Total 2019-20 Expense 22,153 14,541 6,304 3,486 3,094 1,690 1,425 884 369 196 2,315 2,264 58,720
a Total expense includes provisions of $1.5 billion for crude-by-rail (Energy) and $680 million for contingency and disaster assistance (Treasury Board and Finance).
193
pdf named: B19_FP-Tables_Historical_tb.pdf Budget 2019 - Tables section
194
Schedule
Historical 25:Summary,
Fiscal Historical Fiscal
2008-09 Summary,
to 2022-23 a
  2008–09 to 2022–23 a
Consolidated Financial Statements basis (millions of dollars)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Statement of Operations Actual Estimate Target Target Target
Revenue
1 Personal income tax 8,708 7,877 7,631 8,563 9,621 10,537 11,042 11,357 10,763 10,775 11,874 11,990 12,619 13,451 14,335
2 Corporate income tax 4,252 4,754 3,334 3,678 4,756 5,488 5,796 4,195 3,769 3,448 4,871 4,177 4,614 5,031 5,388
3 Other tax revenue 3,817 3,746 3,820 4,099 4,333 4,500 4,598 5,168 5,649 6,538 6,833 5,766 5,803 5,991 6,207
4 Resource revenue 11,915 6,768 8,428 11,636 7,779 9,578 8,948 2,789 3,097 4,980 5,429 6,527 5,386 6,738 8,591
5 Investment income (1,888) 3,541 2,486 2,168 2,595 3,423 3,113 2,544 3,698 3,126 2,349 2,585 2,697 2,893 3,009
6 Premiums, fees and licences 3,356 2,857 2,922 2,931 3,184 3,437 3,564 3,574 3,701 3,839 3,911 3,872 4,047 4,131 4,241
7 Other own-source revenue 4,587 4,627 4,903 5,128 5,234 5,412 6,438 5,850 3,637 6,982 6,344 5,899 6,030 5,968 6,026
8 Total own-source revenue 34,747 34,170 33,524 38,203 37,502 42,375 43,499 35,477 34,314 39,688 41,611 40,816 41,196 44,203 47,797
9 Federal transfers 4,578 5,342 5,452 5,192 5,042 7,059 5,982 7,142 7,979 7,606 8,013 9,200 8,883 9,426 9,746
10 Total Revenue 39,325 39,512 38,976 43,395 42,544 49,434 49,481 42,619 42,293 47,295 49,624 50,016 50,079 53,629 57,543
Expense by Function
11 Health 13,674 14,636 15,393 16,284 17,254 17,967 19,366 20,115 20,687 21,239 21,921 22,155 22,262 22,228 22,259
12 Basic / advanced education 10,438 11,067 11,362 11,951 12,394 12,782 13,103 13,673 14,110 14,471 14,848 14,541 14,405 14,314 14,207
13 Social services 3,417 3,807 4,129 4,278 4,641 4,668 4,548 4,752 5,198 5,592 5,867 6,301 6,219 6,232 6,263
14 Other program expense 10,386 9,734 9,269 9,683 10,528 11,600 12,395 10,375 12,607 13,189 11,918 13,795 10,931 11,002 11,015
15 Total program expense 37,915 39,344 40,327 42,366 44,817 48,387 48,048 48,915 52,602 54,491 54,554 56,792 53,817 53,776 53,744
16 Debt servicing costs 208 214 472 509 530 601 722 776 1,018 1,420 1,971 2,265 2,520 2,780 3,013
17 Pension provisions 2,133 430 439 634 296 748 (404) (630) (543) (593) (190) (337) (375) (324) (248)
18 Total Expense 40,256 39,988 41,238 43,509 45,643 49,736 48,366 49,061 53,077 55,318 56,335 58,720 55,962 56,232 56,509
19 Surplus / (Deficit) - less revenue forecast allowance in 2022-23 (931) (476) (2,262) (114) (3,099) (302) 1,115 (6,442) (10,784) (8,023) (6,711) (8,704) (5,883) (2,603) 584
Capital Plan b 7,943 8,000 7,544 6,884 6,062 5,770 6,181 6,558 6,578 9,021 6,057 6,206 6,571 5,996 5,407
Statement of Financial Position (at March 31)

20 Heritage / endowment funds 16,900 17,077 17,500 17,936 18,176 18,562 18,860 19,262 19,836 20,306 20,700 20,607 21,059 21,577 22,122
21 Contingency Account 16,822 14,983 11,192 7,497 3,326 4,658 6,529 3,625 2,299 1,661 6,342 - - - -
22 Other financial assets 28,868 30,338 30,799 32,972 34,734 40,039 40,688 41,138 44,152 49,010 48,701 52,188 53,290 56,227 59,993
23 Taxpayer-supported Capital Plan liabilities (880) (2,888) (3,199) (3,442) (4,594) (8,724) (11,922) (19,040) (23,769) (29,339) (33,597) (36,983) (41,499) (45,364) (48,800)
24 Taxpayer-supported operating debt / pre-1992 TPP debt (1,160) (2,279) (2,015) (1,676) (1,426) (1,333) (1,053) (1,024) (10,751) (19,227) (29,060) (34,807) (39,352) (41,682) (44,467)
25 Self-supported debt (7,921) (9,300) (11,010) (12,707) (14,116) (15,775) (16,592) (17,373) (17,822) (17,848) (18,134) (18,381) (19,039) (19,877) (20,961)
26 Total Debt (9,961) (14,467) (16,224) (17,825) (20,136) (25,832) (29,567) (37,437) (52,342) (66,414) (80,791) (90,171) (99,890) (106,923) (114,228)
27 Pension obligations (10,239) (9,483) (9,922) (10,556) (10,852) (11,600) (11,196) (10,566) (10,023) (9,430) (9,240) (8,903) (8,528) (8,204) (7,956)
28 Other liabilities (10,689) (11,131) (11,692) (11,033) (10,793) (12,795) (12,260) (12,141) (12,823) (14,477) (13,189) (10,347) (9,649) (9,596) (6,325)
29 Net Financial Assets / (Debt) 31,701 27,317 21,653 18,991 14,455 13,032 13,054 3,881 (8,901) (19,344) (27,477) (36,626) (43,718) (46,919) (46,394)
30 Capital / non-fin. assets - less defer. contrib. starting 2012-13 30,275 34,217 37,607 40,122 39,517 40,839 42,197 44,661 46,622 49,015 50,744 51,189 52,398 52,996 53,055
31 Net Assets c 61,976 61,534 59,260 59,113 53,972 53,871 55,251 48,542 37,721 29,671 23,267 14,563 8,680 6,077 6,661
a Numbers are not strictly comparable due to numerous accounting policy changes over time. Examples include reporting certain items (transfers through the tax system, crude oil marketing and transportation costs,
allowance for corporate income tax doubtful accounts) as expense, instead of netting the amounts from related revenue, increasing both revenue and expense, but not impacting the surplus / (deficit). 2015-16
revenue includes $84 million in donations to post-secondary and health authority endowments, which were not reported as revenue in prior years but rather as “adjustments to net assets.” 2015-16 revenue and
expense have been increased by $119 million to correct a consolidation adjustment eliminating those amounts at year-end, with no deficit impact. 2016-17 revenue and expense have been reduced by $111 million
resulting from an accounting treatment change such that drug cost rebates under Product Listing Agreements are netted from operating expense instead of being reported as revenue and gross expense.
b Reflects capital grants and other support included in expense, and capital investment in government-owned assets not included in expense. Capital investment adds to capital assets, which are depreciated over time
through amortization expense. Numbers for 2008-09 to 2013-14 are estimates as details required to consolidate SUCH capital spending with full accuracy are not readily available.
c The change in net assets year over year does not match the surplus / (deficit) exactly in most years, due to various balance sheet adjustments, most of which are minor. A significant adjustment reducing net assets
by $2 billion was made in 2012-13, to recognize the accumulated deferred capital contribution liability when the accounting standard was adopted.
B19_Historical Fiscal Summary CFS Basis Bud 2019.xlsx/Bud 18_Hist Tbl 10/15/2019/11:40 AM
BUDGET 2019
GOVERNMENT OF ALBERTA | 2019 – 23
Fiscal Plan
Response to the
Auditor General
• February 2018
• November 2018
195
Table of Contents
February 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
November 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
196 Response to the Auditor General | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Response to the Auditor General – February 2018
The Auditor General reports on the scope and findings of the work carried out by the Office of the Auditor General.
The following are the recommendations in the Auditor General’s report titled Report of the Auditor General of Alberta
– February 2018 and the government’s response to each of them.
AUDITOR GENERAL’S RECOMMENDATIONS GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE
Alberta Advanced Education – Report on

Post-Secondary Institutions
Consistently enforce purchasing procedures
We recommend that the Alberta College of Art + Design Accepted. The Alberta College of Art + Design has
enforce consistent compliance with its purchasing provided a written plan to address the implementation
procedures. of the enforcement of the purchasing procedures.
This recommendation was implemented in
October 2018.
Strengthen controls supporting key financial and business

processes
We recommend that MacEwan University improve its Accepted. MacEwan University is working with the
processes for management to regularly communicate to board of governors and audit committee to identify the
the board of governors and its committees the adequacy information required on the adequacy and operating
and operating effectiveness of the university’s internal effectiveness of the internal control environment.
control environment.
Promptly remove system user access of terminated employees
We recommend that Northern Lakes College Accepted. Northern Lakes College has established
consistently apply procedures to promptly remove appropriate procedures to remove terminated employees’
terminated employees’ system access. system access. This recommendation was implemented in
May 2019.
Alberta Education – Processes to Manage the

Student Class Size Initiative
Develop an action plan and improve monitoring and

reporting processes
If the Department of Education continues the Class Size Accepted. The Department of Education developed
Initiative, the department should develop an action plan an action plan to strengthen the accountability and
and improve processes to regularly monitor and report reporting mechanism for class size funding. An annual
on the initiative. reporting template was developed to report how class size
funding is deployed within school board jurisdictions.
The new reporting requirements were implemented for
the 2018-19 school year.
Response to the Auditor General | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 197

Alberta Energy – Alberta Petroleum Marketing

Commission’s Management of Agreement to
Process Bitumen at the Sturgeon Refinery
Develop processes for risk management and staff capacity,

and ensure board oversight
We recommend that: Accepted. The Alberta Petroleum Marketing

• the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission Commission (APMC) will work with its board of
develop and document effective processes for directors to develop and implement a formalized risk
managing risk and for ensuring the commission management process. The board will exercise its oversight
has sufficient expertise to manage its business to ensure appropriate processes are in place. APMC will
arrangements complete an organizational design and staffing strategy
• the board of directors exercise oversight by ensuring consistent with the transition of the Sturgeon Refinery to
the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission has operations.
these processes in place.
Improve reporting to Albertans
We recommend that the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Accepted. APMC will, following discussions with
Commission prepare a business plan and an annual the Department of Energy, and as necessary others
report that are made publicly available to Albertans. responsible for business plan and annual reporting, give
The APMC must be able to demonstrate it has given appropriate consideration to what is to be reported and
appropriate consideration to the nature and extent of prepare public reports accordingly.
information it will share with Albertans.
Establish performance measures and targets
We recommend that the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Accepted. APMC will work with its board of directors
Commission develop performance measures, set targets to develop performance measures, targets and results
and compare results against planned performance. measurement.
Complete a lessons-learned analysis
We recommend that the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Accepted. APMC will work with its board of directors to
Commission complete an analysis of the lessons learned complete an analysis of lessons learned.
from its significant agreements, at a point in time when
the commission deems it useful to do so.

Alberta Environment & Parks – Design of Systems

to Manage the Climate Leadership Plan and
Adaptation
Develop and use an implementation plan, improve quality

of the monitoring data and report on the total cost
We recommend that the Department of Environment Accepted. The Department of Environment and Parks
and Parks: has completed an overarching implementation plan for
the 2018-19 fiscal year, which was publicly released in
• develop and use comprehensive implementation plans
June 2018.
for the Climate Leadership Plan and for each of its
programs In addition, the department:
• implement efficient processes to sufficiently reduce
• has streamlined planning and reporting processes to
the risk that the data used to monitor and report on
improve the quality of the progress monitoring data;
progress is not accurate or complete
• has initiated requests for quarterly updates for the
• provide clear and complete reporting on the expected
implementation plan, which began in July 2018;
and actual costs of programs and the Climate
• has improved the completeness of its reporting in the
Leadership Plan overall.
2017-18 Progress Report; and
• will use the standard quarterly forecast update process
to compile all related financial updates and year end
actuals.
For the 2017-18 Progress Report, improvements have
been made in how program costs are reported.
Alberta Health – Pure North Grants
Improve conflict of interest processes
We recommend that the department improve its conflict Accepted. The Department of Health will:
of interest processes by: • review and make improvements to the supplementary
• improving the supplementary code to clearly outline code so that it outlines the disclosure requirements for
the disclosure requirements of the deputy minister the deputy minister and associate deputy minister;
• centrally managing conflicts in the department to • develop a central process to manage disclosed conflicts
ensure adherence to the conflict of interest policies that efficiently and effectively support compliance
• providing advice to department staff on conflict of with the supplementary code; and
interest matters when necessary. • outline and communicate options for all department
staff to receive advice concerning conflict of interest
matters, when necessary.
This recommendation was implemented in
January 2019.

Alberta Transportation – Commercial Vehicle

Safety Follow-Up
Progressive sanctions – repeated
We recommend for the third time that the Department Accepted. The Department of Transportation has revised
of Transportation consistently comply with its policy to its policy and has made progress in ensuring consistent
take disciplinary and enforcement action against non- application of the revised policy to take disciplinary
compliant carriers. and enforcement action against non-compliant
carriers. Streamlining the compliance and investigation
processes had occurred during the 2018-19 fiscal year.
The required internal quality assurance and evaluation
of process changes to ensure policy alignment will be
finalized in 2019-20.
Alberta Treasury Board and Finance – Various

Ministries – Travel, Meal and Hospitality Expenses
of the Premier, Ministers and Their Staff
Improve processes for preparing, reviewing and publicly

disclosing travel, meal and hospitality expenses
We recommend that the Department of Indigenous Accepted. The Department of Indigenous Relations
Relations improve its processes to prepare, review and initiated the following steps to improve its processes:
publicly disclose travel, meal and hospitality expenses.
• the Minister’s office has set up a process to have
procurement card purchases reconciled by the middle
of the following month and is following a “Best
Practices Guide”;
• trip details are being entered into the calendars
including hotel confirmations, attendees and purpose
of the meetings;
• training has been provided on appropriate expense
policies and procedures;
• a set of checklists and forms has been developed based
on best practices; and
• internal review processes have been developed to
review expenses that are on the travel and expense
disclosure site.

Response to the Auditor General – November 2018
The Auditor General reports on the scope and findings of the work carried out by the Office of the Auditor General.
The following are the recommendations in the Auditor General’s report titled Report of the Auditor General of Alberta
– November 2018 and the government’s response to each of them.
Performance Audits
Alberta Agriculture and Forestry – Wildfire

Management – Processes for Prevention and
Review and Improvement
Ensure processes are in place to evaluate and report on

wildfire prevention program
We recommend that the Department of Agriculture and Accepted. The Department of Agriculture and Forestry:
Forestry: • will produce an annual report to provide information
• publicly report on its FireSmart programs, including on FireSmart initiatives. The report will be available
how this work helps reduce wildfire hazard and risk by Fall 2019; and
• ensure there are processes in place to measure, • has developed a standardized wildfire prevention plan
monitor and report on the results and effectiveness of by 2019. The implementation of the plan will be
the various activities set out in the forest areas’ annual measured and monitored by staff. The results will be
wildfire prevention plans. reported annually with the first reporting in
Winter 2019-20.
Comply with business rules for internal reviews reporting

and establish and monitor implementation timelines for
recommendations from external reviews
We recommend that the Department of Agriculture and Accepted. The Department of Agriculture and Forestry
Forestry: will conduct annual reporting of results from internal
• comply with its established business rules for internal reviews. The reviews were conducted according to
results reporting for the review and improvement enhanced wildfire management program business rules,
program which were in place by Spring 2019.
• establish and monitor implementation timelines for Enhanced status updates for independent external
recommendations and opportunities for improvement reviews have been developed. The information is
from independent external reviews and publicly available on the department’s website annually.
report implementation progress against these.

Alberta Environment and Parks – Systems to

Manage and Report on the Oil Sands Monitoring
Program Follow-up
Improve annual reporting process
We recommend that the Department of Environment Accepted. Meetings about the content of the annual
and Parks, working with Environment and Climate report have been held with the Government of Canada,
Change Canada, improve processes to ensure the annual and key changes in content will be reflected in the
report on the oil sands monitoring program is complete, 2018-19 annual report. Audit report findings will
accurate, clear, and timely. be presented to the corporate services division of the
affected ministries to outline a path and solutions to
address the recommendation.
With the establishment of the Program Office in
2018-2019 to administer the Oil Sands Monitoring
Program, key capacity will be acquired with inherent
stability to improve governance and reporting of the
monitoring system in the oil sands region. A plan to
implement the recommendation was completed in
February 2019.
Alberta Labour: Systems to Update Alberta’s

Workforce Strategies
Report on results of workforce strategies
We recommend that the Department of Labour Accepted. The Department of Labour recognizes that
regularly measure and report on the results of its current measurement and reporting of its workforce strategies
workforce strategies, including lessons learned. can be improved to ensure they continue to be effective
and efficient in changing circumstances. Several projects
are currently underway that will support measurement
and reporting of current workforce strategies. A plan
to implement the recommendation was completed in
February 2019.
Service Alberta: Contract Management

Processes
Improve performance measurement processes
We recommend that the Department of Service Alberta Accepted. The Department of Service Alberta has
develop processes to improve its measuring, monitoring, implemented the recommendation in the new SuperNet
and reporting of the performance of its large and contract, which clearly identifies service level metrics,
complex contracts. monitoring and reporting requirements. The new
contract also outlines enforceable penalties for non-
performance or failure to comply with key deliverables
and milestones.

Improve compliance processes
We recommend that the Department of Service Alberta Accepted. The Department of Service Alberta developed
develop processes to improve its monitoring and a plan in April 2019 to improve its monitoring and
enforcement of contract compliance to ensure that the enforcement of contract compliance in the new
desired results of the contract are achieved. SuperNet contract.
Incorporate lessons learned
We recommend that the Department of Service Alberta Accepted. The Department of Service Alberta
develop processes to improve its evaluation of contracts implemented more robust risk and issue management
and implement risk mitigation strategies and lessons processes during the evaluation process of the new
learned where required. SuperNet request for proposals.
Financial Statement Audits
Alberta Advanced Education – University of

Calgary
Improve internal controls program to mitigate key financial

risks
We recommend that the University of Calgary improve Accepted. The University of Calgary has developed an
the design and effectiveness of its internal controls Internal Controls Program Plan and is in the process
program to mitigate key financial risks. of implementing the plan. Results of testing high risk
controls will be reported to the audit committee in
March 2020. Going forward, reporting to the audit
committee will be completed on a quarterly basis.
Alberta Advanced Education – Keyano College
Improve financial reporting processes - repeated
We again recommend that Keyano College improve its Accepted. Keyano College is in the process of developing
financial reporting by: a plan to improve financial reporting policies and
• training staff on Canadian public sector accounting processes. The plan is expected to be finalized by
standards July 2020.
• improving its monitoring and reviewing process to
ensure that financial information is accurate.

Improve systems to ensure compliance with legislation –

repeated
We again recommend that Keyano College implement Accepted. Keyano College is planning to have its first
systems to: Legislative Compliance Report issued to the College
Board of Governors in 2020. This recommendation is
• understand what legislation it must comply with
expected to be implemented by July 2020.
• develop appropriate policies, procedures, and controls
to ensure compliance with legislation
• monitor and report non-compliance to senior
management and the audit committee.
Alberta Economic Development and Trade
Improve financial reporting system controls
We recommend that Alberta Innovates improve user Accepted. Alberta Innovates has developed and
access controls and segregate incompatible duties within implemented a robust process around user access
the financial reporting system. controls within the financial reporting system.
Alberta Education
Improve monitoring, assessing, and reporting processes on

school jurisdictions’ accumulated reserve balances
We recommend that the Department of Education Accepted. The Department of Education has created
improve its processes to monitor, assess, and report on a Knowledge of Business document for the purpose of
school jurisdictions’ accumulated operating reserves. clarifying processes related to reserve balances.
Recognizing that the department and school jurisdictions
operate within a shared governance environment, with
school jurisdictions having significant flexibility to spend
and save funding allocated to them, the department
will improve its consistency in the internal processes
developed and used to monitor, assess and report on
school jurisdictions’ accumulated operating reserves
while continuing to focus on material risks and school
jurisdictions.
The government is considering developing policy options
regarding school board reserves.
Alberta Energy
Improve controls over the cash-flow model
We recommend that the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Accepted. The Alberta Petroleum Marketing
Commission implement stronger access and change- Commission implemented a stronger procedure to
management control procedures to ensure that access document existing and changing access to the financial
and changes to the financial model are working in a model. Procedure documents were developed in
controlled and consistent manner. January 2019.

Improve controls over the cash-flow model
We recommend that the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Accepted. The Alberta Petroleum Marketing
Commission improve its method for supporting, Commission implemented a stronger change
updating, and documenting assumptions and key management control procedure for updating
judgements applied to its model analysis. key assumptions within the model and stronger
documentation standards to support transparency to
areas where management opinion/judgement has been
applied. Procedure documents were developed in
January 2019.
Alberta Health – Alberta Health Services
Fees and charges – repeated
We again recommend that Alberta Health Services: Accepted. Alberta Health Services (AHS) will
implement this recommendation with the deployment
• reinforce its admission policies to ensure consistent
of a unified admitting and billing software system, as
application
part of ConnectCare. This will standardize the admission
• review its controls over the processes that generates
process across the province in a more efficient and
fees and charges revenue to ensure they are
effective way. Implementation will span from the Fall of
appropriately designed, consistent across regions and
2019 to the Fall of 2022.
aligned with current policies.
In the interim, AHS will implement several additional
controls using existing admitting reports to minimize the
risk of incorrect registration information. These include
the following controls:
• admission reports in use by AHS registration
area systems are all in compliance with provincial
standards;
• registration will perform scheduled reviews of all
listed admission system reports;
• a provincial sign-off process is now in place to
document compliance with the admissions report
process;
• training on provincial standards manual is now
mandated through AHS’ staff education program;
and
• all managers will be required to follow the established
admission policies, processes and procedures.

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BUDGET 2019

Telephone: 780 427-5364

2 Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Capital Plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

Tax Plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139

Fiscal Plan Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177

Response to the Auditor General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195

Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 3

6 Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

A Plan for Jobs and the Economy

Revenue 49.6 50.0 50.1 53.6 57.5

Other Key Metrics:

Supporting Investment in Alberta

Investing in Skills and Training

1 This includes direct and indirect savings.

8 Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Economic Development, Trade and Tourism, through Alberta Innovates, will

Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 9

Living Within Our Means

2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23

Source: Treasury Board and Finance

10 Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Income and Other Taxes 23,578 21,933 23,036 24,473 25,930

pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_B19-rev_tb.pdf

Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 11

Expenditures per capita

Budget 2019 Expense

pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_B19-Exp-tb.pdf

12 Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Better and Smarter Public Services

Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 13

Standing Up for Alberta

Alberta’s Contribution to Canada

Reviving the Energy Sector

14 Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

The government welcomes private sector, market-driven investments in

Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 15

16 Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Historical Municipal Grants in Alberta

pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_hmgia.pdf

Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 17

Keeping Our Commitments to Albertans

18 Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Energy and Economic Assumptions

WTI Oil (US$/bbl) 53.69 62.77 57.00 58.00 62.00 63.00

2017a 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f

pdf named: B19_FP_OVW_eaea-tb.pdf

Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 19

Deficit and Debt

Cash Management Improvements

20 Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23

Debt and Debt Servicing

Source: Treasury Board and Finance

pdf name: DR19_chrt_01.pdf

Overview | Fiscal Plan 2019 – 23 21

Budget 2019 Fiscal Summary