DUBAI RETAIL REVIEW

2017

Supply and
demand dynamics

Dubai retail vs
other global cities

Upcoming
retail trends

Looking ahead

core-me.com
 CONTENTS

Foreword
Supply
Demand
Visitor population
Shift from malls to high street retail
Increasing presence of online retail
Investing in retail
Quantitative comparison of Dubai with other global hubs
Looking ahead

This publication
This document was published in March 2017. The data used
in the charts and tables is the latest available at the time of going
to press. Sources are included for all the charts. We have used
a standard set of notes and abbreviations throughout the document.
The future supply figures quoted may change due to phasing or
delay in deliveries.
2 3
DUBAI
RETAIL REVIEW 2017

Foreword
Dubai’s retail and trading sector, by contributing 29% to Dubai’s In a retail ecosystem such as Dubai, this “close control” makes
GDP while employing about a quarter of the workforce, remains the market relatively less elastic compared to other global
the cornerstone underpinning Dubai’s growth. The city prides markets which are typically driven by a much larger pool of
itself of being home to unmatched superlatives in global retail, offer and demand – thus making Dubai's retail segment a very
which its robust network of tourism and transport infrastructure interesting model to study. Through this publication, we delve
further feed. The statistics are staggering, be it in footfalls or into the underlying dynamics of this unique marketplace, analyse
total international tourist spend. The Dubai Mall, also referred by opportunities, trends and the future course in the backdrop of
some as a “mallopolis” for being the largest mall in the world by contracting margins and disposable surplus evidenced by the
total area, has an annual footfall of over 80 million, on par with rallying dollar and continued lull in oil prices.
Dubai international airport - the busiest international airport in
the world.

Dubai also jumped to the top rank in the world in the Dubai retail market – an oligopoly
MasterCard global destination cities in 2016, reporting a total

5 87%
international visitor spend of USD 31.3 billion, (58% higher than
the second-place London), yet offering the most competitive
prime rents across global retail hubs. This value proposition
positions Dubai favourably amongst luxury and fashion retailers.
With over 60 malls/shopping centres* and a global brand
presence rising to be on par with other gateway cities such as developers own of the mall stock*
New York and London, Dubai, despite its modest population,
has the 2nd highest mall density in the world at 1,214 GLA
sqm/1,000 pop, trailing marginally behind New York.

15 90%
Although mature in its volume and retail offerings coupled with
a strong B2C network, Dubai’s retail sector largely remains an
oligopoly with its economics unlike any other international retail
destination. Demand is led by privately owned retail groups,
which operate almost 90% of global brands in Dubai while the
top-5 state-backed developers form nearly 87% of total retail retailers operate almost of the international brands
supply. To enter one of the most profitable global markets, most
international brands form a licensing arrangement with these
key trading groups who achieve better negotiating capabilities *Malls/ shopping centres above 10,000 sqm. Throughout the report,
we use the terms ‘malls’ and ‘shopping centres’ interchangeably.
with the developers and significant economies of scale.

Mall density across global major retail hubs Mall density across major countries UAE mall distribution (By total stock)* Total international tourist spend vs prime rents

35 60K
Ras Al Khaimh Ajman
3% 3%
1,400 2,000 Sharjah
4% 30
50K
AL Ain

Overnight international vistor spend

1,200 5%

Prime rent in USD/sqm/annum

25
40K
Sqm GLA/1,000 Population

Sqm GLA/1,000 Population

1,500
1,000
20
30K
800 15
1,000
20K
600 10

10K
400 5
500

200 Dubai 0 0
Abu Dhabi
49% Dubai London New Paris Singapore Hong
36%
York Kong
0 0
Dubai London New York Paris Hong Singapore Moscow UAE US Norway UK France Russia China Overnight international vistor spend (in USD billion) Prime rents
Kong Malls/shopping centres above 10,000 sqm All rents reflect annual prime asking rents for the key luxury locations in the given city.
Source : Savills research, ICSC Mall density figures exclude high street markets Source : Core Savills research Source : Savills research, Mastercard Destination Index 2016

4 5
DUBAI
RETAIL REVIEW 2017

Supply
Dubai holds nearly 49% of the total retail stock in the UAE, Notable new entries to the market in 2016 were Meraas’ Phase
followed by Abu Dhabi at 36%. With a market size of about 3.2 2 of the Avenue in City Walk and Outlet Village in Jebel Ali,
million sqm (GLA), over 87% of the total stock is managed by Nakheel’s Dragon Mart 2 and Ibn Battuta Phase 1 extension,
the top 5 developers; Emaar, Nakheel, Majid Al Futtaim, Al- Club Vista Mare on Palm Jumeirah and Al Futtaim’s Festival City
Futtaim and Meraas. Occupancy levels across top performing Expansion. Furthermore, a few community retail centres also
malls are northwards of 95%, particularly more for the malls entered the market such as the International City Pavilion, Al
established in the last decade. The opening of the freehold Furjan Pavilion and The Ribbon in Motor City.
market in the early 2000’s followed by the booming economy,
helped most of these flagship malls to be tenanted at a rapid Strengthening its retail domain with arts and culture, the high
pace as retailers tried to capture the growing captive and tourist point in Dubai’s tourism calendar in 2016 was the opening of
traffic, while establishing their presence in the region to which Dubai Opera situated in Downtown. It expands Dubai’s leisure
Dubai was largely the first port of entry. offerings and adds value to the F&B and retail outlets of the
Downtown district in addition to feeding traffic to and from
Interestingly, Dubai has a mall density nearly 380% higher The Dubai Mall.
than that of London and 240% of Paris, although because
these European markets have a stronger high street market in Many projects which nearing completion like The Dubai Mall
addition to a much higher population base. That said, Dubai expansion, Nakheel Mall and Pointe on the Palm Jumeirah,
is also positioned higher than other Asian markets which have are witnessing stable pre-leasing activity. However, with more
a significant mall stock such as Hong Kong (by 113%) and malls aiming to be operational in the run up to Expo 2020, an
Singapore (by 56%). Such high mall density is largely justified by overhang of overall retail supply is expected. Nearly 800,000
Dubai’s very high visitor to tourist ratio of nearly 5.6 visitors per sqm of major retail supply is forecast in the next three years,
resident – the highest amongst all global retail destinations. adding 25% to the existing stock.

Retail rents marked an uptick post the recovery from the global
financial crisis and have now been almost flat for the last two "The delivery of new retail stock has been driven by past
years, indicating that the market is close to the top of its cycle. positive indicators of growth and 2016 saw many prominent
The delivery of new retail stock has been driven by past positive offerings coming to the market that were largely initiated
indicators of growth and 2016 saw many prominent offerings during the revival of 2011-2013. Unsurprisingly, rent
coming to the market that were largely initiated during the revival stabilization has been in tandem with the spike in supply
of 2011-2013. Unsurprisingly, rent stabilization has been in tandem levels marked since 2015".
with the spike in supply levels marked since 2015.

Dubai retail stock vs prime rents Total overnight visitors vs total retail stock

1,200 3.5 17 3.5

3
1,000 15
3

2.5
800 13
Prime rents in AED/sqm/annum

Overnight visitors in millions

2.5
GLA in million sqm

GLA in million sqm

2

600 11

1.5
2

400 9
1

1.5
200 7
0.5

0 0 5 1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Rents reflect annual prime asking rents for a typical luxury retailer taking a 200 sqm store on a prime pitch in a super-regional mall.

Prime rents* Total retail stock Total overnight visitors Total retail stock Source : Core Savills research

6 7
DUBAI
RETAIL REVIEW 2017

Demand Which visitor cities are the most global?

International overnight visitor spend (in billions
The retail market in Dubai is seasonal, peaking at the Dubai
Shopping Festival while witnessing a drop in footfalls in International Domestic
summer. The recently concluded Dubai Shopping Festival overnight
visitors (m)
overnight
visitors (m)
% domestic New York London Paris Dubai Singapore Hong Kong
marked its 22nd year in 2017. It strategically started earlier
than usual this year to coincide with the festive and holiday $3.50 $4.57 $3.26 $9.23 $3.04 $2.15 $4.70 $9.70 $1.54 $2.82 $1.33 $2.10
Dubai 15.27 - 0%
season and the winter vacation for schools, leading to more F$B Retail F$B Retail F$B Retail F$B Retail F$B Retail F$B Retail

business for retailers. It remains a key indicator of the for- Singapore 12.11 - 0%
Dubai’s retail and tourism performance, however, it is yet to
Source: Master Card, Savills World Research
announce the total retail spend and footfalls for 2017 at the London 19.88 13.02 40%
time of this publication.

Performance of top 10 source markets

Paris 18.03 16.94 48%
On average, Dubai has an influx of 10% of its original
population each day and is the third most visited city in the
Hong Kong 8.37 18.32 69% India
world with over 15.3 million international overnight visitors 12%
with a spending of $2,050 per overnight visitor - the highest 1,800
KSA
6%
in the world. This robust demand from tourism along with a Sydney 3.75 9.20 71%
1,638
cosmopolitan captive consumer base makes Dubai amongst 1,601
the most preferred destination for international retailers and by New York 12.75 44.50 78%
1,542 UK
5%
far the deepest penetrated market in the region. 1,245 Oman

(‘000 visitors)
Mumbai 4.86 30.00 86%
1,188
3%
Most retailers in the region work under the franchise model 1,037
to capture economies of scale while achieving ease of 1,002
Tokyo 11.70 (est) 62.21 84%
Pakistan US
doing business across formats and geographies as large 18% 1% China
franchise groups have a much stronger negotiating power 20% Iran Germany Kuwait
Rio De Janeiro 1.37 (est) 10.00 88% 607 607 2% 0% 2%
with developers than isolated retailers. In a few instances, the 602
540
472 462
513 419
landlord and retailer are part of the same conglomerate. This Moscow 1.83 15.47 89%
450 462 461
410
further emphasizes the “oligopoly” that we highlighted at the
outset.
Shanghai 6.12 (est) 20.00 77%

Despite the softening regional economic conditions, demand

from retailers has not seen a significant dip with stable preleasing Source: Master Card, Savills World Research Visitors in 2015 Additional visitors in 2016 Source: Dubai Tourism
activity witnessed in The Dubai Mall expansion and other
strategically located under-construction malls nearing completion.
Furthermore, the super-regional malls which are located on the International visitors
Sheikh Zayed road are all currently witnessing occupancies
northwards of 98% despite new expansions inaugurated over $2,050
Dubai
the last 2 years. This has led many retailers to be on the waiting 15.27

list as developers aim to maintain a tenant mix that is unique and $1,707
Sydney 3.75
appropriate for the pitch in which the brand is located.
$1,453
New York
Elsewhere, City Walk led the absorption of new international 12.75

retailers and first to market concepts followed by the Festival $1,152

Tokyo 11.7
City mall expansion. Notable new entrants in City Walk are
Dinh Van Paris, Georg Jensen and Karl Lagerfield while Festival $1,036
Singapore 12.11
City is expected to open Robinson and John Lewis in 2017.
$994
London
Nonetheless, anecdotal evidence from many retailers suggests 19.88
that the steady increase in visitor traffic is not reflecting in Shanghai
$817
an increased sales conversion rate, particularly in the luxury 6.12
sector. The strengthening dollar has caused a contraction in $817
Hong Kong
spending from Russian, British and European tourists while the 8.37
lull in oil prices and ensuing austerity measures have affected Mumbai $741
the buying sentiment, particularly for discretionary spending of 4.86
the GCC consumers. However, these reductions in spending $730
Rio De Janeiro
from traditional core target nationalities are partially offset by 1.37
others such as Indians and especially Chinese buyers. The $714
Paris
provision for visa on arrival for the Chinese visitors announced 18.03
in September 2016, makes Dubai easily accessible to this $514
Moscow
burgeoning tourism demographic. Interestingly, despite major 1.83
mall developers reporting y-o-y profits, the slowing rate of
growth witnessed by retailers has led the Dubai chamber of Average spend per international overnight visitors
commerce to recently suggest developers to reduce rents to Internatinal overnight visitors (millions) 2016
reflect the current market conditions.
Source: Master Card, Savills World Research
8 9
Visitor
FIG. 1 City populations, density and
Size of the Visitor City
number of visitors
325,000

population
KEY
SIZE OF VISITOR
City Density CITY (OVERNIGHT
400 VISITORS + NUMBER
OF VACANT BEDS)
CITY DENSITY
(PEOPLE/SQ KM)

across global cities Daily Visitors

7% CITY
POPULATION

Comparing how different global cities’ population density swells DAILY VISITORS
(% OF CITY
POPULATION

each day due to the influx of visitors POPULATION) VISITOR POPULATION

Source: Savills World Research

Size of the Visitor City

SYDNEY 515,000 City Density

4.8 million 5,500

Size of the Visitor City

Size of the Visitor City Size of the Visitor City 275,000

640,000 280,000
City Density

21,200
City Density Daily Visitors

10,800 City Density Daily Visitors

6%
6,500 12% LONDON
PARIS
Daily Visitors
2.2 million 8.6 million
8% Daily Visitors

4% Size of the Visitor City

160,000
NEW YORK Size of the Visitor City City Density

8.5 million HONG KONG 90,000 28,000

7.3 million City Density

11,400 Daily Visitors

Size of the Visitor City
1%
470,000 City Density

4,900
Daily Visitors MUMBAI
1%
Size of the Visitor City

330,000 12.5 million

Daily Visitors

5% City Density

3,800 MOSCOW
TOKYO Size of the Visitor City
11.5 million 210,000
9 million City Density
Size of the Visitor City 500
Size of the Visitor City
90,000
145,000 City Density

Daily Visitors 5,100 Daily Visitors

City Density 1% 10%

7,600 Daily Visitors
Daily Visitors
1% DUBAI
3% SHANGHAI
SINGAPORE 24 million RIO DE JANEIRO 2.1 million
5.5 million 6.5 million
Source: Savills World Research
10 11
DUBAI
RETAIL REVIEW 2017

Investing in retail Increasing presence of online retail

Shift from Malls to High Street Retail Although a very active investment sector elsewhere, In the last year alone there have been many e-commerce portal
e.g. the West End in London or Manhattan in New York, the launches, diversifying the retail platforms in the region while looking
Although super-regional malls remain tourism anchors, contract the rental gap between the core and outer towers retail market in Dubai has not yet emerged as a thought-after to tap a wider audience. For example, noon.com was launched
developers are increasingly becoming aware of changing in DIFC. investment target from institutional and private investors alike by Emaar’s Chairman, Mohamed Alabbar, while ounass.com an
consumer patterns in Dubai. A shift in the development due to the high level of control from the leading retail groups Arabic/English site and the Anglo-Italian luxury online retailer,
strategy is emerging as new retail formats such as Similarly, the pedestrianisation of Palm Jumeirah, for which a and developers. net-a-porter.com, also came to market. Brands are also
pedestrianised high-streets, which bring human scale to the mockup of a couple of hundred metres long is currently under increasingly attracting consumers through their social media
built form while enhancing the urban fabric of the districts construction, is expected to create an urban community area If and when these assets ever come to market, they are likely to interactions promoting their online experience.
they are a part of, come into being. that is connected to a growing number of retail, dining and command interest, particularly from institautional investors as
entertainment facilities. the core super-regional malls make a strong case for investment Although trust remains an issue, buying sentiments are changing
Dubai’s mall to high street ratio is highly skewed when grade assets, similar to Dubai’s limited Grade A office stock. as access to a much larger inventory of products offered with
compared to other global cities, particularly London and Interestingly, retail developments across upcoming commercial Factors such as a high footfalls, near full occupancy levels, cash on delivery, which remains the major way online sales are
Paris where retail is largely driven by high street spaces. centres are mirroring the design philosophy of the district. For premium tenants and relatively much lower risk than other conducted in the region, becomes available.
This transformation in stock marks a beginning in the example, D3, with its investment grade offices, ateliers and emerging markets, are expected to translate into stable yields
diversification of retail assets in Dubai. Meraas, particularly retail outlets blurs the edges between spaces of work and reflecting Dubai’s leading role on the global retail stage. Online retail remains an emerging segment in this region which
leads the pack of such offerings with its portfolio play. Furthermore, regeneration activity across older industrial is yet to impact the market share of the brick and mortar stores –
consisting of unusual shopping destinations namely City areas such as Al Quoz is leading to quirky warehouse based Nonetheless, a shift is starting to emerge as developers of a albeit for now. On the other hand, it will certainly positively affect
Walk, Box Park, The Beach at Jumeirah Beach Residence, art centres, start-up incubators and gymnasiums mushrooming few under-planning master communities are considering JV the supply chain ecosystem and result in added demand for
the recently launched Outlet Village and the upcoming in the district - for example Al Serkal Avenue. Prominent future mechanisms for their upcoming mall schemes. warehousing and distribution.
retail component at Bluewaters — all low-rise pedestrian supply, such as Mall of the World, which is in its planning
strips that cater to specific local catchment areas, yet stages, is also looking at temper ature-controlled pedestrianised
appeal to a wider tourist base. retail and cafes, taking this trend ahead.
Malls vs High Streets
Pedestrian retail promenades within districts are also Through the development of these pockets of art, design, music
being developed across many commercial and residential and sport, integrated with retail and F&B, Dubai is learning to
areas. For example, the retail spine nearing completion in use urbanism as a powerful tool to enhance public interactions
DIFC is expected to provide better access between towers through built and particularly open spaces, a progressive shift
and integrate the whole precinct, in addition to likely from the dominant “building big” philosophy. 95% Prime Malls 5% Prime High Streets

Quantitative comparison of Dubai with other global hubs

Proportion who agreed/strongly agreed with
'Physical’ score index: Retailer attractiveness 'Physical’ quantitative score: Retail offer
recommending their city/location as a place to trade

100% 280 140

96%
93%
89.5%
83.3% 83.3% 240 120
80% 76.5%

200 100

60%
160 80
50%

120 60
40%

80 40

20%
40 20

0% 0
London’s Dubai New Paris Milan Hong Singapore New London’s Hong Dubai Paris Singapore Milan Dubai London’s New Singapore Milan Hong Paris
West End York Kong York West End Kong West End York Kong

Source: The Retail Group Retail attractiveness is a weighted score consisting of retail sales, tourist flows, property costs The retail offer score takes into account the proportion of units occupied by retail brands,
and retail mix. brand variety, brand profile and presence of flagships across its three streets relative to their
comparator retail locations in the other Global Cities.
Source: Savills Research; Oxford Economics Source: Savills Research

12 13
LOOKING
AHEAD 2016/17

Concerns
With the looming overhang of deliveries of over 800,000 sqm With most major international brands already having a
expected to escalate existing high levels of mall density in presence in Dubai and many in fact having multiple stores
the next three years, the warning signs of market saturation across super-regional malls, room for potential demand may
have started to show. Although overnight visitor numbers and start to contract as market penetration reaches its peak.
spending remain strong and in line with the vision to welcome
20 million tourists by 2020, the sustainability of the impending Looking ahead, the combination of these factors will require
mall supply to balance captive resident and visitor demand quantitative adjustments of supply and rentals. Rental High level of existing supply –
remains under scrutiny. adjustment is the most probable scenario because effective 3.2 million sqm GLA 1,214 sqm
supply control is unlikely due to the relatively less elastic GLA/1,000 people - Second highest
While the emirate is not overly dependent on tourists from nature of the Dubai retail market when compared to other mall density in the world, almost at
any one country, visitors from Saudi Arabia and the UK sectors such as the residential segment where developers par with New York.
are major growth drivers for the Dubai retail market. The can always phase out stock in line with actual demand.
impact of low crude oil prices on GCC buyers along with the On the contrary retail developers may not be able to afford
strengthening US dollar which makes Dubai an increasingly to phase stock, as new malls coming to the market need
Concerns over
expensive place to shop for British and European buyers, are to achieve a critical mass of occupancy levels to become
supply figures
among factors that give retailers cause for concern. This is operationally successful.
exacerbated for the luxury sector which has started to feel High supply pipeline – 800,000 sqm
the heat of slowed conversion rates from footfalls to revenue. Nonetheless, Dubai’s retail stock performance is going to GLA expected in the run up to Expo
vary across formats and a nuanced analysis is required. 2020, almost equal to 25% of existing
Steady rents which are yet to reflect these relatively lower As the whole market is unlikely to adjust as a single entity, supply. As many projects are still in
margins are straining the ability of some retailers to pay rent we expect stock segmentation to progressively make the planning stages, some of the stock may
for the prime strips that they occupy. Most malls also require retail sector tiered and the correction mechanism will largely not be delivered or be held back to align
stores to undergo a facelift every three to five years - adding depend on the sub-segment and the location that the stock with demand.
to the rental cost. Furthermore, the introduction of VAT in belongs to.
2018, the effects of which are yet unaccounted for, may
further impact retailer margins.

Contracting demand from key

demographics and geographies

Adjustment in the retail market

through the mechanisms of:

Relatively slower growth rate in retailer Concerns over • Holding stock or delay in
profits margins existing demand handovers
• Rent reduction
• Stock segmentation by a
process of natural
selection by retailers

Rents yet to adjust to slowing market

conditions

High level of market penetration by

retailers with many top international Concerns over
highstreets brands having multiple potential new demand
stores across super regional malls.

14 15
LOOKING
AHEAD 2016/17

Segment forecast
We expect the three super-regional malls on Sheikh Zayed Road
- The Dubai Mall, Mall of Emirates and Ibn Battuta Mall which are
aided by the Dubai Metro for a significant surge in footfalls, to do
well with their present stock and expansions and to remain the top
choice for existing and new brands as the market starts to saturate.

As Dubai continues to attract and retain a diverse talent pool,

changing consumer preferences and younger demographics have
led newer retail formats to come to the market. These projects
enhance the public realm through pedestrianized high streets while
adding a human scale to build form – a shift away from existing
heavily built spaces. Such retail offerings are expected to gather
pace as they add value to residents by upgrading community
living without losing the tourist appeal, capturing both these
demand segments. However, as the climate hinders the economic
performance of these districts during the summer months,
solutions such as temperature control methods will have to be
implemented. Interestingly, the phase 1 of the Mall of the World,
currently in its planning stages, is expected to include shaded
walkways and temperature controlled arcades to provide maximum
comfort to pedestrians.

On the other end of the spectrum, developers are also introducing

community retail in conjunction with their residential developments,
addressing existing captive demand for F&B and supermarkets. We
predict community centres, which offer a well thought out tenant-
mix and serve a strong captive market, to perform well, while
retaining retailers as well as minimizing leakages to super-regional
malls, particularly for basic needs.

Retail outlets in outer areas which do not have access to public

transport, coupled with a relatively poorer tenant-mix and lower
catchment populations may witness absorption issues and
downward pressure on rents.

Outlook
Dubai has long shed its “emerging retail market” tag
and has firmly positioned itself as a global shopping
destination on the back of its robust retail and tourism
sector, in turn positively affecting other domains of its
diverse economy. With rising levels of new stock coming
to market over the next three to four years and first signs
of market saturation starting to show, it is to be seen if
demand can continue to match up – albeit the strength
doesn’t become a threat instead.

Despite a relatively closed market, we foresee the retail

sector to progressively segment itself with higher and
lower performing assets created by a process of natural
selection by retailers. A gap is anticipated to form
between these two subcategories, reflected through
heterogenous rents and vacancy levels – a case similar to
Dubai’s two-tiered office market. Retailers are expected
to optimize footprint and mark a flight to quality towards
perceived high functioning malls while the slower
performing assets may see a cascading effect of rising
vacancy levels caused by this shift.

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