Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting Report PDF

LONG TERM
ELECTRICITY DEMAND
FORECASTING
Disclaimer and Notice to Reader
No one should act on the contents herein or information herein without appropriate
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expressed in the paper are not binding on any person, entity, authority or Court, and
hence, no assurance is given that a position contrary to the opinions expressed
herein will not be asserted by any person, entity, authority and/or sustained by an
appellate authority or a court of law. This report has been prepared under the
Technical Assistance titled “Supporting Structural Reforms in the Indian Power
Sector” funded by UK aid from the UK government; however the views expressed do
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Contents
Executive summary 7
1. Introduction 17
2. Methodology for econometric forecasting 26
3. Historical trends of variables 34
4. Choice of model for forecasting electricity demand

50
and estimation of results
5. Electricity demand forecasts from FY 2016-17 to

62
FY 2036-37
Annexure 1: Long panel estimation 76
Annexure 2: Details of the data used 78
Annexure 3: Coefcient Results 85
Annexure 4: State Shares of electricity consumption 94
Annexure 5: Electricity Demand Forecasts and Growth rates 98

Executive
summary
Executive summary
Background
Projection of electricity demand is a prerequisite for power sector planning. A periodic Electric Power Survey (EPS)
of the country is conducted by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) to assess the state-wise/union territory (UT)-
wise/region-wise and all-India electricity demand on medium- and long-term basis. So far, 19 Electric Power
Surveys have been conducted. The 19th Electric Power Survey (EPS) Committee, constituted by the CEA in June
2015, decided that the 19th EPS would be brought out in four volumes, as detailed below:
Volume I: Discom-wise, state/UT-wise, region-wise and all-India electricity demand projection by partial end use
method (PEUM).
Volume II: Electric Power Survey of National Capital Region (NCR).
Volume III: Electric Power Survey of Mega Cities.
Volume IV: Electricity demand projection by econometric method.
The Volume I of the 19th EPS Report, covering electricity demand projection of Discoms, states, UTs, regions and
the all-India electricity demand using Partial End Use Method (PEUM) of electricity demand forecasting, was
brought out in January 2017. Now, in line with 19th EPS Committee recommendations, the CEA and KPMG India,
has carried out electricity demand forecasting by the econometric method.
Data used
The data set for the econometric analysis comprises data on key drivers of electricity demand for all the Indian
states and UTs from 2002-03 to 2015-16. Such a cross-sectional (for all states and UTs) data over multiple time
periods is called a panel data set.
Panel data analysis help by blending the inter-state differences and intra-state dynamics and this has several
advantages over cross-sectional or time-series data. It improves the efficiency of econometric estimates by
considering more degrees of freedom and by capturing the impact of variables those might be unobservable.
Also, in a time-series model, any factor would typically be strongly correlated with its lagged value that leads to
a restricted forecast. This problem may be overcome with the panel data.
The panel data set considered in this analysis has both the dependent variable i.e. electricity
demand/requirement, and a set of independent variables such as state-level gross domestic product (GDP)and
weather data for all the states and UTs, except Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Dadar and Nagar Haveli,
Sikkim, Daman and Diu, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep. For these states/UTs, as weather data
8 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

(temperature, rainfall, etc.) was not consistently available, it has been assumed that the growth rate of electricity
demand will converge to the national growth rate in future. The monthly data of 25 states and three UTs spanning
over 168 periods (14 years of monthly data) has been used for the model development.
Models for electricity demand forecasting

Electricity demand across states is likely to be dependent on time, i.e. it is natural to expect electricity demand in
any given year to be dependent on its previous value, especially as the overall electrical equipment determining
electricity demand can be considered as fixed in the short-run. Electricity demand is a derived demand that arises
from demand of energy services such as space conditioning, cooking and lighting, for which we require
investment in electric equipment. However, adjustment takes time as investment in electric equipment is not
immediate. The dynamics arise as a result of the demand stickiness prevalent in electricity consumption because
of its capital-intensive nature.
This inertia in demand is captured by including lagged dependent variables in the model which helps in
computing dynamic impacts of key drivers on electricity demand and hence improve upon static models where
such impacts are not captured. Such an economic model which distinguishes between short-run and long-run
electricity responses to its key drivers is known as Partial Adjustment Model (PAM). This model is dynamic as
it does not assume an instantaneous adjustment to new equilibrium values when any independent variable (such
as price or income) changes. It is assumed that the household can change the rate of utilisation of the existing
stock of appliances, but not the existing capital stock with variations in prices or income, so that the short-run
and long-run elasticities are not same. These adjustments, however, can vary by regions in India and partial
adjustment framework at the regional level provides useful insight into how demand would grow in various
regions. The partial adjustment framework has been widely applied in the past for estimating short-run and long-
run electricity demand elasticities as well as for obtaining future forecasts of electricity demand.
The PAM model estimates electricity demand (in MU and MW) within regional panel framework which assumes
that all the states within a region will have same response for key socio-economic variables included in the model.
Thus to estimate differential response of each state with respect to change in key drivers, the state-specific model
is also estimated using regional seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model. This model estimates state-
specific regression model but takes advantage of the panel data structure to improve overall efficiency of state-
level parameter estimates. It pools panel data observations within a region and accounts for correlation in the
errors across states within a region.

Selection of the preferred model
The best model for energy requirement/demand at all-India is selected as the one which minimizes out-sample
mean absolute percentage error 1 (MAPE) for the year 2015-2016 and has the least average deviation from
the actual observed demand for the two recent years 2016-17 & 2017-2018. For selecting the best model, first
estimation is done using data till 2014-15 and then out sample MAPE is calculated for the year 2015-16 as the
complete set of independent variables were available for this year in the sample data frame. The regional partial
adjustment model (PAM) performs best in terms of forecasting performance by both these measures. The
forecasted electricity requirement/demand from the PAM model matches very closely with the actual electricity
requirement for the year 2015-16 with minimum out-sample mean absolute percentage deviation in errors
amongst the all estimated models. At the same time, it has the least average deviation from the actual observed
demand for the two recent years 2016-17 & 2017-2018 as compared to all other estimated models.
Although, it is found that the partial adjustment model (PAM) has a better forecasting accuracy at all-India level
with a relatively lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in out-of-sample data and lower average deviation
in two recent years as compared to the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model, but for few states, electricity
requirement forecasts in the long-run seemed better from the SUR model as compared to the PAM model and
thus electricity demand forecasts are obtained from both these models for comparison and better understanding
of the future scenario under state-specific demand transitions.
Partial Adjustment Model – The Model & Its Significant findings

The panel partial adjustment model has been estimated using data for 25 states and three UTs in all the five
regions — north, west, south, east and north-east. The monthly data used for the model development in the
current study is long panel with 25 states and three UTs spanning over 168 periods (14 years of monthly data) in
all the five regions. The dependent variable is the logarithm of monthly state electricity requirement between
2002-03 and 2015-16.
The independent variables include logarithm of state electricity requirement lagged by one and 12 months
respectively, logarithm of GDP lagged by 12 months, logarithm of real electricity prices, cooling degree days
(CDD), heating degree days (HDD), rainfall, state by month fixed effect (accounting for factors particular to a state
that are distinct in every month) and dummies for incorporating structural break between time periods.
The partial adjustment model describes change in electricity requirement from one month to the next as some
proportion of the difference between the current level of monthly demand and desired/equilibrium long-run
monthly demand. The key assumption of the model is that consumers try to bring their actual level of monthly
consumption in line with the equilibrium level but they are only partially successful in every period to close this
gap. The estimated speed of adjustment of short-run deviation from the long-run equilibrium path is about 31%
per annum at the all-India level. This implies that the short-run will converge to the long-run equilibrium in 3.2
1
Error is defined as a difference between actual and forecasted electricity requirement/demand.

years. The speed of adjustment turns out to be the highest for the northern region at 42% per annum or 2.4 years
and lowest for the eastern region at 22% per annum or 4.5 years.
The PAM model distinguishes between short-run and long-run, and thus estimates both short-run and long-run
income elasticity (as measured by GDP elasticity). The long-run income elasticity of Electrical Energy
Requirement at the all-India level is 0.74, which is more than three times the short-run elasticity. As expected,
the elasticity turns out to be lowest for developed region of western India (0.48), which comprises two developed
and big states of India - Gujarat and Maharashtra. The elasticity is the highest in the relatively less-developed
eastern region (0.91). The relatively slower growth in electricity demand has been observed in developed states
and relatively faster growth in electricity demand has been observed in developing states, indicating convergence
in demand and living standards over time.
As in the case of income, the model estimates both short-run and long-run price elasticity of electricity demand.
A 1% increase in real electricity price results in a small 0.02% decrease on an average in the state Electrical Energy
Requirement in the short-run at the all-India level. The long-run price elasticity of -0.06 at the all-India level is
three times the short-run elasticity. This reinforces that electricity price increase will have much greater impact on
electricity demand in the long-run. This is expected as people are likely to adjust more to electricity price increases
over time by switching to alternate sources of energy, primarily renewables. An examination of the coefficients
of region-specific partial adjustment model shows that the price elasticity is relatively higher than the all-India
average in the southern region (-0.12 in the short-run and -0.38 in the long-run) and western region (-0.07 in the
short-run and -0.26 in the long-run). This can possibly be explained by relatively higher average real price in
western region and the greater captive generation in the industrial sector in western and southern regions,
making utility electricity requirement to be more sensitive to price changes.
The estimated long-run impact of CDDs at the all-India level is about 0.19% increase in Electrical Energy
Requirement per one-degree Celsius increase in the CDD. The short-run impact of the CDD is about 0.06% increase
in Electrical Energy Requirement per one-degree Celsius increase in the CDD. The long-run impact is estimated to
be higher in relatively hot and developed regions in India — west (0.26%) and south (0.22%).
In the short-run, a one unit (100 mm) increase in rainfall results in 6% reduction in Electrical Energy Requirement
when rainfall is between 0-50 mm, 4% reduction when rainfall is between 50-100 mm, 3% reduction when
rainfall is between 100-150 mm and 2% reduction when rainfall is above 200 mm. In India, higher rainfall
generally occurs during summer when temperature and humidity are high. While higher rainfall in summers brings
down temperature and electricity demand but the associated increase in humidity dampens the impact of rainfall
on electricity demand to some extent. As the humidity effect is absent in winters, an increase in rainfall during
summer may reduce demand (in percentage terms) lesser as compared to winter. Also in winter, the agricultural
demand is very high in many states. Higher rainfall in winter can significantly reduce the agricultural load due to
pumps. The estimated impact of rainfall turns out to be the highest in the northern region due to high agricultural
load. The estimated average long-run impact at the all-India level in all four rainfall categories is 12% reduction
in electricity demand with one unit (100 mm) increase in rainfall.

Forecasts based on the regional PAM model
All-India electricity requirement forecasts as based on the regional PAM model under three different GDP
scenarios-baseline or business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, optimistic scenario and pessimistic scenario are discussed
below:
The BAU case assumes that GDP at the all-India level will continue to grow at the average compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of about 7.3% obtained during 2000-01 to 2017-18 and there will be no significant deviations
from these past trends. In the optimistic growth scenario, the all-India GDP is assumed to grow at 8% for all
future years during 2018-19 to 2036-37. In the pessimistic growth scenario, the all-India GDP is assumed to
grow at 6.5% for all future years during FY 2018-19 to FY 2036-37.
An overview of Electrical Energy Requirement (BU) and CAGR (%) for various scenarios is shown in Table 1 and
Table 2 respectively:
Table 1: Electrical Energy Requirement (in BU) from PAM

Year 7.3% GDP (BAU 8% GDP 6.5% GDP Projection by
scenario) (optimistic scenario) (pessimistic scenario) PEUM
2016-17 1152.4 1152.4 1152.4 1160.4
2021-22 1471.5 1477.5 1443.5 1566.0
2026-27 1886.9 1905.4 1776.9 2047.4
2031-32 2378.7 2458.9 2186.7 2530.5
2036-37 2976.3 3175.4 2691.07 3049.4

*All forecasts are reported for average weather conditions. See details of each scenario.
Table 2: Electrical Energy Requirement CAGR (%) from PAM

Year 7.3% GDP 8% GDP 6.5% GDP Projection by
(BAU scenario) (optimistic (pessimistic PEUM
scenario) scenario)
2016-17 to 2021-22 5.01 5.10 4.61 6.18
2021-22 to 2026-27 5.10 5.22 4.24 5.51
2016-17 to 2026-27 5.05 5.16 4.43 5.84
2026-27 to 2036-37 4.66 5.24 4.24 4.06
2016-17 to 2036-37 4.86 5.20 4.33 4.95
In the BAU scenario of 7.3% GDP growth, Electrical Energy Requirement is projected to increase at a CAGR of
4.86% for the period FY 2016-17 to FY 2036-37. Energy Requirement is projected to increase from 1152.4 BU in

2016-17 to 1886.9 BU in 2026-27, 2378.7 BU in 2031-32 and 2976.3 BU in 2036-37. Under the baseline scenario,
Electrical Energy Requirement is likely to increase 2.58 times between FY 2016-17 and FY 2036-37.
In the optimistic scenario of 8% GDP growth, Electrical Energy Requirement is projected to increase at a CAGR of
2016-17 to 1905.5 BU in 2026-27, 2458.9 BU in 2031-32 and 3175.4 BU in 2036-37. Under the optimistic
scenario, Electrical Energy Requirement is likely to increase 2.75 times between 2016-17 and 2036-37.
In the low growth scenario of 6.5% growth, Electrical Energy Requirement is projected to increase at a CAGR of
2016-17 to 1776.9 BU in 2026-27, 2186.7 BU in 2031-32 and 2691.07 BU in 2036-37. Under the low growth
An overview of Peak Electricity Demand (MW) for various future periods is shown in Table 3:
Table 3: Peak Electricity Demand (in MW) from PAM

2016-17 158,994 158,994 158,994 161,834
2021-22 201,481 202,330 195,133 225,751
2026-27 255,911 259,628 239,299 298,774
2031-32 319,794 333,152 293,462 370,462
2036-37 398,172 427,497 359,882 447,702

Forecasts based on the SUR model

All-India electricity requirement forecasts as based on the regional SUR model under three different GDP scenarios-
baseline or business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, optimistic scenario and pessimistic scenario are discussed below:
An overview of Electrical Energy Requirement (BU) and CAGR (%) for various scenarios is shown in Table 4 and
Table 5:

Table 4: Electrical Energy Requirement (in BU) from SUR
2016-17 1188.2 1188.2 1188.2 1160.4
2021-22 1550.0 1558.3 1488.2 1566.0
2026-27 2056.4 2095.7 1884.5 2047.4
2031-32 2685.1 2836.8 2395.4 2530.5
2036-37 3517.4 3878.2 3066.8 3049.4

Table 5: Electrical Energy Requirement CAGR (%) from SUR

scenario) (optimistic (pessimistic PEUM
scenario) scenario)
2016-17 to 2021-22 5.46 5.57 4.61 6.18
2021-22 to 2026-27 5.82 6.1 4.83 5.51
2016-17 to 2026-27 5.64 5.84 4.72 5.84

2026-27 to 2036-37 5.51 6.35 4.99 4.06
2016-17 to 2036-37 5.58 6.09 4.86 4.95
2016-17 to 2056.4 BU in 2026-27, 2685.1 BU in 2031-32 and 3517.4 BU in 2036-37. Under the baseline scenario,
2016-17 to reach 2095.7 BU in 2026-27, 2836.8 BU in 2031-32 and 3878.2 BU in 2036-37. Under the optimistic
2016-17 to reach 1884.5 BU in 2026-27, 2395.4 BU in 2031-32 and 3066.8 BU in 2036-37. Under the low growth
An overview of Peak Electricity Demand (MW) for various future periods is shown in Table 6:

Table 6: Peak Electricity Demand (in MW) from SUR
scenario) scenario)
2016-17 163,148 163,148 163,148 161,834
2021-22 212,828 213,972 204,340 225,751
2026-27 282,361 287,751 258,747 298,774
2031-32 368,683 389,512 328,904 370,462
2036-37 482,950 532,495 421,081 447,702

Comparison between 19th EPS forecast by PEUM and

econometric method forecast
The difference in the forecast of Electrical Energy Requirement between 19th EPS forecast by PEUM and
econometric method forecast from PAM for 2016-17 to 2036-37 is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1 Comparison of Electrical Energy Requirement under PAM with PEUM (FY 2017 – FY 2037)
Comparison of Electrical Energy Requirement with PEUM (FY 2017 - FY

2037)
3500
Electricity demand (in BUs)
3000
2500
PEUM
2000
1500 Actual
1000 Base
500 Optimistic
0 Pessimistic
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
Financial year
An analysis of the differences between the econometric forecasts under PAM and the 19th EPS forecasts by PEUM
yields that the 19th EPS forecasts by PEUM are higher than both the BAU and the higher GDP growth scenario till
the year 2031-32. The implied GDP growth rate in BAU is 7.3% whereas in the optimistic scenario it is around
8%. For the years beyond 2031-32, the econometric method forecasts under the BAU and the higher growth
scenario compare favourably to the 19th EPS forecast by PEUM.

The actual Electrical Energy Requirement in India in the year 2016-17 and 2017-18 was 1142.9 BU and 1213.3
BU respectively. It is observed that the econometric method forecasts are closer to the actual Electrical Energy
Requirement observed during both these years. The econometric method forecasts from PAM are higher than the
actual Electrical Energy Requirement in 2016-17 (by 0.8%) and almost equal to the actual Electrical Energy
Requirement in FY 2017-18 (with deviation of 0.03%)
The econometric method forecasts from SUR are higher than the actual Electrical Energy Requirement in FY 2016-
17 (by 3.96%) and in FY 2017-18 (by 2.43%).

Introduction
1
1. Introduction
India has witnessed profound social, economic, cultural and demographic changes, most of which have
accelerated in the last decade. In the past decade, Electrical Energy Requirement in India increased steadily at a
CAGR of 5.42% from 546 BUs in 2002-03 to 1,143 BUs in 2016-17. During the same period, the Indian economy
experienced rapid modernisation and economic development with GDP increasing with a CAGR of 7.78% and
population increasing with a CAGR of 1.45%. Figure 1.1 shows that India’s GDP Index increased 2.8 times from
the year 2002-03 to 2016-17 with a corresponding increase in Electrical Energy Requirement of approximately
2.1 times. Apparently, there is a strong positive relationship between income and Electrical Energy Requirement.
However, the historical trends depicted in Figure 1.1 imply that the income elasticity of electricity requirement is
falling over time. Between the years 2013-14 and 2016-17, the CAGR for GDP was almost double the CAGR for
Electrical Energy Requirement. According to the annual report of the Planning Commission on the working of
State Power Utilities & Electrical Departments (2014), the elasticity of electricity consumption vis-à-vis GDP has
declined from 5.04 in the period 1960-61 to 1965-66 to 1.04 in the period 2006-07 to 2011-12. 2
The varying relationship between income and Electrical Energy Requirement further highlights the need to
understand the causes of these trends in the past, which, forms the basis of the future trajectory of Electrical
Energy Requirement.
Figure 1.1 Trends in all-India GDP and Electrical Energy Requirement (utility)
In addition to rapid growth and development, many other macroeconomic factors, climatic factors, technological
2
Report: http://planningcommission.nic.in/reports/genrep/rep_arpower0306.pdf
As accessed on 1st April 2019

changes, consumer preferences, alternative energy sources, state-specific factors and energy policies are expected
to impact Electrical Energy Requirement both in the short-run and long-run. For instance, on the one hand, policies
and schemes such as Make in India, Dedicated Freight Corridor, Power for All are likely to increase electricity
consumption dramatically; on the other hand, roof-top solar programme, Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT),
Bachat Lamp Yojana (BLY) and Star and Labelling programme are likely to reduce electricity demand on the grid.
Furthermore, other advanced technologies such as electric vehicles could alter demand. Also with increasing
global concerns due to climate change, there has been increasing focus on gradually reducing dependence on
fossil fuels and increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix. The share of off-grid
renewables such as solar pumps is expected to decrease demand for grid electricity in the future, as a result of
numerous policies and programmes being recently implemented by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy.
Specifically, relatively slower growth in Electrical Energy Requirement during 2013-14 to 2016-17 can be
attributed to increasing energy efficiency, rising captive generation and increasing share of off-grid renewables.
Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has been carrying out periodic electricity demand forecast for India by
conducting National Electric Power Surveys. The basic objective of electricity demand forecasting has been to
provide reliable inputs for carrying out long-term generation expansion planning along with commensurate
transmission and distribution facilities. Many government and private organisations have been using the
electricity demand forecast for various purposes.
Several methods of forecasting are available which vary from simple extrapolation of the past demand to
sophisticated econometric models involving a number of variables and parameters. The earliest indicators used
for energy forecasting were simple measures such as growth rates, elasticities, and energy intensity (ratio of
Energy requirement to GDP). Over time, sophisticated techniques have been developed to determine electricity
demand ranging from econometric models, time series co-integration models, end-use models, hybrid models
(that combine features of economic and engineering models), systemic dynamic models, semi-parametric models,
scenario approaches, decomposition models, process models, input-output models and artificial neural networks.
Table 1.1 summarises different models that have been used in past studies for forecasting long-term electricity
demand.
Table 1.1 Models for electricity demand forecasting

Model Explanation of the approach
Time series A forecasting model is developed based on the previously observed values of
demand. Models for time series data represent different stochastic processes —
autoregressive models, integrated models and moving average models.
Multivariate regression Electricity demand is modelled as a function of a number of independent variables

such as income, price and weather-related factors. The most common method used
is least squares regression.

Non-parametric/Semi- Model structure is not fixed as in case of parametric models but determined from
parametric analysis data. Extensively used in the past to study the non-linear relationship between
electricity demand and its key explanatory variables such as temperature, income
and price. A common method used is generalised additive model.
Panel data analysis A panel data set is one where there are repeated observations on the same unit
such as states, households and countries. Fixed effect model allows for unit-
specific unobserved factors that are constant over time.
A dynamic panel, through inclusion of lagged electricity demand terms, can allow
for a dynamic adjustment process of electricity demand when there is a change in
the determinants of electricity demand. The adjustment process arises as there is
inertia which slows adjustment process in response to changes in economic
variables such as GDP. A dynamic panel can also enable us to distinguish between
short- and long-term elasticities of electricity demand.
Co-integration analysis These models are used due to non-stationary nature of electricity consumption,
real energy prices and income variables. If the variables are found to be co-
integrated, the electricity demand is modelled using the vector error-correction
(VECM) framework to estimate short-run and long-run income, price and
temperature elasticities.
End-use approach The end-use approach focusses on end uses or final needs at a disaggregated
level. The method aggregates the electricity demand in the economy by consumer
categories — residential, industrial, commercial and agriculture. The electricity
demand for each category is calculated on the basis of the use of various electric
appliances.
This method allows incorporation of the energy efficiency improvements in the

economy, changes in the energy-mix and other efficiency measures.
Hybrid approach These models attempt to reduce the methodological divergence between the
econometric and engineering models by combining the features of the two
traditions.
Input-output models These models provide a framework that is able to capture the direct as well as
indirect energy demands through inter-industry transactions. This approach is
highly data-intensive.

Machine learning Artificial intelligence-based techniques include neural networks, support vector
machine, wavelet networks and fuzzy logic.
Scenario approach This approach involves the development of plausible scenarios that could capture
structural changes, emergence of new economic activities or disappearance of
activities.
CEA uses the PEUM to forecast the electricity demand. PEUM is a ‘bottom-up’ approach focusing on end uses or
final electrical energy needs of different categories of consumers such as domestic, commercial, irrigation,
industries and railway traction. In addition to this method of demand forecasting, CEA has been using
simple/multiple regression techniques to validate the forecast of various electric power surveys from time to time.
CEA, in its 18th EPS report in collaboration with Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), had published the forecast of
electricity demand using econometric method in April, 2014. The forecast was made using multiple regression
techniques on panel data through selection of independent econometric variables with state fixed effect technique
using past data. The projection of the future had been made by selecting appropriate growth rates for various
independent variables and through a set of scenarios. In literature, there exist numerous studies that applied
different variants of panel data models to estimate long-term electricity demand at the national/international
level.
Electricity demand forecasting models have typically been developed using its key drivers. While electricity
demand can be explained by past trends alone (univariate analysis), it is also typically influenced by a combination
of drivers that may be broadly categorised as economic, demographic, behavioural and meteorological factors.
Some factors have a greater impact on annual electricity demand, while others on monthly electricity demand.
GDP, population, and urbanisation are some socio-economic factors that impact electricity demand at an annual
level. At a monthly level, the effect of changes in temperature on electricity demand can be significant. Other
climate variables such as rainfall, wind and cloud cover also play a role in determining electricity consumption,
especially in states where majority of the load is used for domestic and agricultural purposes. These latter
variables are typically used in short-term demand forecast (typically day ahead or intra-day forecasts). Some of
these drivers are listed in Table 1.2 from past studies.

Table 1.2 Summary of panel data studies on electricity demand
S.No. Paper/Report Authors Period Temporal Spatial Dependent Independent
name and year of under granularity granularity variables variables under
the study study consideration
1 Causal Bwo-Nung 1972-2002 Annual energy 82 countries Log of energy • Log of energy
relationship Huang, M.J. consumption consumption consumption
between Hwangc, • Log of per capita
energy C.W. Yang real GDP
consumption • Log of the share of
and GDP capital formation
growth to GDP to
revisited: a represent capital
dynamic panel stock
data approach • Log of population
(2008) to represent
labour force
Log of GDP deflator
2 The effect of Gupta, 2005-2009 Daily 28 Indian Log of daily • Gross domestic
development Eshita electricity states electricity product per capita
on the climate demand demand • Population
sensitivity of • HDD and CDD
electricity • Sector-wise
demand in electricity price
India (2016) • Pump sets
• Rainfall
3 Residential Leticia 2000-2008 Annual 47 Spanish Log of • Price

electricity Blázqueza, electricity provinces residential • Income, i.e. net
demand in Nina demand of electricity disposable income
Spain: new Boogenb residential demand (real)
empirical and sector • Weather
evidence Massimo conditions
using Filippini • Population
aggregate data (province-wise)
(2013) • Household size
• Natural gas
penetration/proxy
for gas price:
measured as the
number of gas
consumers divided
by number of
houses
CDD/HDD
4 18th Electric Central 1980-2010 Annual All Indian Log of • Real State
Power Survey Electricity electricity states electricity Domestic Product
Authority demand demand per capita
and Indian • State population
Statistical rate of
Institute urbanisation
• Percentage of
population
electrified

• Poverty head
count ratio
• Wholesale Price
Index of electricity
(all India)
Structure of state
(measured by share of
agriculture, industry
and service in state’s
domestic product)
5 Seasonal Enrica De 1978-2000 Annual energy 31 OECD Log of • Average seasonal

temperature Cian, demand and non- residential temperature
variations and Elisa Lanzi, OECD electricity • Lagged dependent
energy Roberto Ros countries demand variable
demand: on • Alternative energy
a panel prices
cointegration Real per capita GDP
analysis for
climate change
impact
assessment
(2013)
6 Modelling Cheng 1967-1982 Monthly Ontario — Monthly peak • Income

Ontario’s HSIAO, municipal 9 demand • Price of the
regional Dean C. peak and municipaliti relevant electricity
electricity MOUNTAIN kilowatt-hour es commodity
system and M.W. demand • Since an income
demand using Luke CHAN, variable was not
a mixed fixed Kai Y. TSUI directly available
and random by municipality, it
coefficients was approximated
approach*(198 by the product of
9) average weekly
earnings of the
industrial
composite and a
composite index
number of
employment for
urban areas
• Region-specific
factors
• 12 regional
monthly dummies
to represent the
regional- and
seasonal-specific
factors
CDDs and HDDs
7 A PES of the US Anthony 1990-2006 Monthly USA, state- • Annual disposable

electricity Paul, Erica demand level (48 Electricity income per capita

demand by Myers, and estimated for states and consumption for the residential
region, season, Karen each of the district of per capita per class and gross
and sector Palmer three Columbia) consumer for annual state
(2009) customer residential and product for the
classes and commercial commercial and
nine US classes industrial classes
census • Average retail
divisions electricity price; it
varies by customer
class
• HDD and CDD
• Number of
minutes of
daylight in the
capital of each
state on the 15th
day of each
month, which
varies across
months but not
across years
• The retail price for
delivered natural
gas that is
included only for
the residential
class
FE that are state-level
fixed effects
8 The non-linear Marie 1985-2000 Monthly 15 Electricity • Temperature
link between Bessec, electricity European consumption • Summer holiday
electricity Julien consumption countries dummy
consumption Fouquau† • Cubic trend
and • Population
temperature in • Production in total
Europe: a manufacturing
threshold panel • Monthly dummy
approach variables
(2008)
In the current study, the long-term electricity demand has been forecast both at the state and all-India level. The
model has been estimated based on the monthly electricity demand data of 25 states and three UTs during the
period 2002-03 to 2015-16, within panel framework for each of the five regions — north, south, east, west and
north-east. The states included in different regions for estimating regional panel data models are listed in Table
1.3. The key advantage of using regional panel data analysis is that it allows to control for heterogeneity across
differentiated Indian states within a given region and enables to account for state-specific unobserved factors

that are constant over time. For states and UTs(other than Lakshadweep 3) not included in the panel model, the
future Electricity Requirement and Peak Demand forecast has been obtained based on all-India CAGR of 5%.
These states/UTs contributed just 1.65% of the total India’s Electrical Energy Requirement in FY 2016. Himachal
Pradesh has not been included in the analysis due to non-availability of weather data. Weather data for Shimla
was available only post FY 2014-15, that was insufficient for the purpose of our analysis
Electricity demand forecast of Telangana is included in the forecast of Andhra Pradesh as its substantial data was
not available separately for the past years.
Table 1.3 States selected in different regions for regional panel data analysis
Region States
North Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir,
Punjab, Chandigarh
South Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry
East Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal
West Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Goa
North East Assam, Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland
Others (forecast on Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Dadar and Nagar Haveli, Sikkim, Daman
the basis of all-India and Diu, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep
average rate of
growth of 5% per
annum)
3
In case of Lakshadweep, while Electricity Requirement has been obtained at 5% growth as done for other states but Peak Demand has been considered
constant during our forecasting period because almost constant Peak Demand was observed during period FY2011-FY2016.

Methodology
for econometric
forecasting
2
2. Methodology for econometric forecasting
This chapter discusses the modelling techniques used for electricity demand forecasting by econometric method
using panel data.
2.1 Methodology
2.1.1 Panel data
Panel data typically refers to data containing time-series observations of a number of states. Therefore,
observations in panel data involve at least two dimensions; a state-level or cross-sectional dimension and time
dimension. Panel data blends the inter-state differences and intra-state dynamics. This leads to several
advantages over only cross-sectional or time-series data. Important benefits of panel data estimation are:
2.1.1.1 It is a more accurate inference of model parameters. Panel data usually contains more degrees of
freedom and more sample variability than cross-sectional data which may be viewed as a panel of
only one-time period, or time-series data for only one state, hence improving the efficiency of
econometric estimates.
2.1.1.2 Panel data controls for omitted variables. A panel model can control for the state-specific, time-
invariant factors through the use of state-specific intercepts or “fixed effect”. These fixed effects, in
essence, capture the impact of variables that are time-invariant and unobservable to the
econometrician (such as, the innate preferences of the consumers regarding restricted use of
electricity demand. These intrinsic tendencies of consumers would not be expected to change during
the time span of roughly 15 years over which the analysis is conducted.)
2.1.1.3 The fixed-effect estimation method is carried out by demeaning each of the variables i.e. the variable
is transformed by subtracting the mean value of the variable over time (the temporal dimension).
Demeaning the variables along the temporal dimension would eliminate the heterogeneous fixed
effects (idiosyncrasies that are assumed to be stable). Demeaning variables ‘within-subject’ implies
that the mean value for each variable (over time) is subtracted from each observed value of the
variable. Hence, within each subject, all the demeaned variables have a mean of zero. For time-
invariant variables, the demeaned variables will have a value of zero for every case, and since they
are constants, they will drop out of any further analysis. This removes all the between-subject
variability (which may be diluted by the presence of omitted variable bias) and leaves only the
within-subject variability to analyse.
2.1.1.4 In a time-series model, any factor would typically be strongly correlated with its lagged value. With
panel data, we can rely on the inter-state differences to reduce the collinearity between current and
lag variables to estimate unrestricted time-adjustment patterns.

2.1.1.5 Panel data arrives at more accurate predictions for individual state outcomes by pooling the data
rather than generating predictions of individual state outcomes using the data on the individual
state in question. If the electricity demand of each state is similarly dependent on certain variables,
panel data provides the possibility of learning an individual state’s behaviour by observing the
behaviour of others. Thus, it is possible to obtain a more accurate description of an individual state’s
behaviour by supplementing observations of the individual state in question with data on other
states.
Two variants of fixed effect model, the long panel model (adopted in 18th EPS) and partial adjustment model
(PAM), are estimated. In addition to the two fixed effect models, one state-specific model is estimated using
seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SURE) approach. All three models are discussed below in detail.
2.1.2 Long panel model

Electricity demand across states is likely to be dependent on time, i.e. it is natural to expect electricity demand in
any given year to be dependent on its previous value, especially as the overall capital stock governing electricity
supply can be considered as fixed in the short-run. The monthly data used for the model development in the
current study is long panel, with each state spanning over 168 periods (monthly data spanning over 14 years).
The most commonly used method of panel data is ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation. OLS is a statistical
technique for estimating changes in a dependent variable (such as electricity demand) which is in linear
relationship with independent variables (such as GDP, real electricity price etc.). It is named so because, in its
computation, the sum of the squared deviations of the predicted values from the observed (past) values of the
variables is minimised.
The long time-series-cross-section data may have correlation in electricity demand across states in the same
period (known as contemporaneous correlation) as these cross-sectional units are subject to spill overs from
economy wide shocks. In addition, there is a correlation of electricity demand with its lagged values within states
(known as serial correlation) and non-constant variance of the electricity demand (known as heteroscedasticity)
across the ranges of values of the independent variables (that predict it). However, OLS regression requires that
there is no contemporaneous correlation in electricity demand across states and no serial correlation within states,
and that electricity demand should have constant variance across different ranges of independent variables.
The long-panel fixed effect model transforms the error term associated with the data using the Prais-Winsten 4
regression, so that the assumption requiring no serial correlation in electricity demand or errors is not violated.
In this method, coefficient of correlation between the error terms (called rho), is estimated from the data by
regressing the OLS residuals on the lagged residuals. This estimated rho is then used to transform both electricity
demand and all the independent variables such that the correlation in electricity demand and its one period
lagged value is accounted in the estimation.
It also estimates panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) to account for correlation across units (year-specific
shocks) and non-constant variance of the electricity demand. The fixed effect panel data model is estimated in
4
This methodology is explained in the appendix in detail.5 The theory of partial adjustment model is explained in detail in the appendix.

the current dataset observations on cross-section units which are repeated over long time periods. This model
was also estimated in the 18th EPS to forecast future electricity demand at the all-India level. The long panel
model has been estimated using data for 25 states and three UTs in all the five regions — north, west, south,
east and north-east. The estimated model is:
𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆,𝑡𝑡 = 𝛽𝛽1 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙(𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺)𝑡𝑡−12 + 𝛽𝛽2 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙(𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅) + 𝛽𝛽3 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 + 𝛽𝛽4 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻 + ∑ 𝛽𝛽5 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅
+ ∑ 𝛽𝛽𝑠𝑠, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 + ∑𝛽𝛽𝑠𝑠,𝑚𝑚 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷+ 𝜀𝜀𝑠𝑠,𝑡𝑡
The dependent variable is the monthly state Electrical Energy Requirement between 2002-03 and 2015-16. The
independent variables used include GDP lagged by 12 months, real electricity prices, CDDs, HDDs, rainfall, state
by month fixed effect (accounting for factors particular to a state that are distinct in every month) and dummies
for incorporating structural break between time periods.
2.1.3 Partial adjustment model (PAM)
Electricity demand is a derived demand that arises from demand of energy services such as space conditioning,
cooking and lighting, for which we require investment in electric equipment. However, adjustment takes time as
investment in electric equipment is not immediate. The dynamics arise as a result of the demand stickiness
prevalent in electricity consumption because of its capital-intensive nature.
Specifically, the partial adjustment model has been used in a fixed effects framework to incorporate the dynamics
of electricity demand behaviour and hence improve upon simple “long panel” static models where such impacts
are not captured. This inertia in demand is captured by including lagged dependent variables in the model5.
Thus, this model is dynamic as it does not assume an instantaneous adjustment to new equilibrium values (as in
the long panel model) when any independent variable (such as price or income) changes. It is assumed that the
household can change the rate of utilisation of the existing stock of appliances, but not the existing capital stock
with variations in prices or income, so that the short-run and long-run elasticities are not same. While the long
panel model only estimates long-run elasticities, the partial adjustment model estimates both short-run and long-
run elasticities. These adjustments vary by regions in India and this provides a useful insight into how demand
would grow in various regions. As in the case of the long panel model, the fixed effect PAM has been estimated
using data for 25 states and three UTs in all the five regions — north, south, east, west and north-east. The
estimated model is:
𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆,𝑡𝑡 = 𝛽𝛽1 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙(𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸)𝑡𝑡−1 + 𝛽𝛽2 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙(𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸)𝑡𝑡−12 + 𝛽𝛽3 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙(𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺)𝑡𝑡−12 + 𝛽𝛽4 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙(𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅) + 𝛽𝛽5 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 + 𝛽𝛽6 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻
+ ∑ 𝛽𝛽7 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 + ∑ 𝛽𝛽𝑠𝑠, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 + ∑𝛽𝛽𝑠𝑠,𝑚𝑚 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷+ 𝜀𝜀𝑠𝑠,𝑡𝑡
The dependent variable is the monthly state Electrical Energy Requirement or Peak Electricity Demand between
the years 2002-03 and 2015-16. The independent variables used include electricity demand lagged by one and
12 months, respectively, GDP lagged by 12 months, real electricity prices, CDDs, HDDs, rainfall, state-specific time
dummies in order to account for structural breaks over time and state-specific month dummies to account for
state-specific seasonality.
5 The theory of partial adjustment model is explained in detail in the appendix.

The above two models (long panel and PAM) estimate electricity demand (in MU and MW) within regional panel
framework which implicitly assumes regional convergence in electricity demand over time. The assumption of
regional convergence may turn out to be wrong if an individual state takes on its individual path. Thus, for
comparison purposes, the state-specific model is estimated using regional seemingly unrelated regression (SUR)
model.
2.1.4 Seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SURE)
The SUR model estimates a state-specific model for electricity demand. But instead of estimating each state
equation separately, as in the case of OLS, it exploits the additional information from the error structure of other
states that are linked by the fact that their disturbances or the error terms are correlated in the same period. The
correlation among the equation disturbances can come from many sources like correlated shocks to the macro
economy.
As it is reasonable to expect contemporaneous correlation in electricity demand of different states within a region,
pooling temporal cross-sectional observations in the form of Zellner’s SUR model help to improve the efficiency
of the estimates of state-specific parameters. As a first step, presence of contemporaneous correlation is checked
using the Breusch-Pagan test. There was evidence of strong correlation between the error terms of states at the
regional level (i.e. between states in each of the five regions considered). Thus, the region-specific model allows
to obtain state-specific coefficients adjusted for inter-dependencies in electricity demand, in the same time-period
among states in each region. The model is estimated as a system of equations for all states (s) within each region
with stacking of observations over’s’:
𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑆𝑆 = 𝑋𝑋𝑠𝑠 𝛽𝛽𝑠𝑠 + 𝜀𝜀𝑠𝑠
For s = 1……M. M is the number of states in each region. 𝑌𝑌𝑆𝑆 and 𝜀𝜀𝑠𝑠 are N-vectors and 𝑋𝑋𝑠𝑠 is N x Ks matrix,
where Ks =dim (𝛽𝛽𝑠𝑠 ). The dependent variable is the monthly state Electrical Energy Requirement between 2002-
03 and 2015-16. X represents the set of independent variables used for explaining electricity demand such as
GDP, price, rainfall, population etc. The chosen specific independent variables vary across states according to
what variables best explain as electricity demand in each state (for example: HDD has been considered for states
that experience winters such as northern states while dropped for states that do not experience winters such as
southern states).
The model assumes that, within each state, the error terms can be dependent on each other over time (electricity
demand in a state at any given period will be closely related to previous period values because of the inertia in
electricity demand). The error terms across states can be related only in the same year and not over time.
Therefore, the errors can be serially correlated within each cross-sectional unit but allows only contemporaneous
correlation across cross-sectional units. Furthermore, the magnitude of this contemporaneous correlation across
states does not change over time 6.
6
There is no time heterogeneity, i.e. E(EitEjt)= σij

2.2 Data used
The dependent variable in all the models is monthly Electrical Energy Requirement or Peak Electricity Demand in
a state/India depending on the model under consideration. The monthly Electrical Energy Requirement is
measured in Million Units (MU) and monthly Peak Electricity Demand is measured in Megawatts (MW). Key
explanatory variables in the proposed forecasting models are categorised into two groups — weather variables
i.e. temperature and rainfall, and socio-economic variables i.e. GDP (in billion rupees), population (in numbers),
per capita income (in rupees) and sector’s share of GDP (in %). All the weather-related variables are available at
the monthly or daily level. These monthly driver variables are captured either at a monthly frequency or
constructed by taking monthly totals or averages over daily level data. Annual variables, on the other hand, are
those variables captured at the end of every financial year.
A key summary of the variables used in the analysis is given in Table 2.1:
Table 2.1 Variables used in analysis
Variables used Description Period

Agriculture Share of agriculture in GDP of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Mining Share of mining in GDP of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Electricity Share of electricity in GDP of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Industry Share of industry in GDP of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Construction Share of construction in GDP of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Trade Share of trade in GDP of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Banking Share of banking in GDP of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Public services Share of public services in GDP of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Transport Share of transport in GDP of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Manufacturing Share of manufacturing in GDP of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Services Share of services in GDP of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Gross irrigated area Gross area units of irrigated area in the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Gross unirrigated
Gross area units of unirrigated area in the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
area
Annual rainfall Annual rainfall received FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
CDDs Cooling degree days FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
HDDs Heating degree days FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16

Monthly rainfall Monthly rainfall received FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Structural change Political party at the centre FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Per capita Per capita income of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
GDP GDP of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16

GDP per capita GDP per capita of the state FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Lagged electricity
Electricity demand lagged by 12 months FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
demand
Electricity prices State-wise annual real electricity prices FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Urbanisation State-wise annual urbanisation rate FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
State-wise annual percentage of villages
Villages electrified FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
electrified
Total pump sets State-wise annual number of pump sets FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
Index of industrial
Annual all-India index of industrial production FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16
production
All the variables listed in Table 2.1 were tested in the model. However, only those variables that were statistically
significant and that improved the fit of the model were included in the final model. To reiterate, the variables that
were statistically insignificant or not improving the explanatory power of the model were dropped. Some of the
primary reasons for dropping these variables were:
Collinearity of variables with GDP: Some variables such as population, rate of urbanisation and rate of poverty
were highly correlated with GDP. This is because higher level of economic growth measured by higher GPD values
is positively related with the rate of urbanisation and rate of poverty. In a way, one predictor variable can be
used to predict the other and this introduced redundant information in the model. Because of the inter-
relationships of these variables with GDP, the inclusion of these variables in the model, along with GDP, would
affect how GDP singularly affects the electricity demand (by altering the coefficient of the GDP term by making it
insignificant or negative). Therefore, to avoid the problem of collinearity, all collinear variables have been
removed from the model, except GDP.
Issues of changes in data methodologies: Complete data was available for variables such as village
electrification and total pump sets used in agriculture. The data methodology adopted for calculation of village
electrification was changed multiple times during the period of analysis. Due to change in computation
methodologies, the data could not be relied upon as there appeared to be arbitrary fluctuations in the estimates.
Insignificance of variables: As discussed above, variables that did not improve fit of the model were excluded
to keep the model parsimonious, i.e. to maximise explanatory power of the model using the minimum amount
of data. Variables such as the index of industrial production (IIP), structure of the economy, gross irrigated area
and gross unirrigated area were statistically insignificant when introduced in the model and were, thus, excluded
from our analysis.

Specifically, the variables that have been incorporated in the final version of the models, after multiple iterations,
are as given in Table 2.2:
Table 2.2 Variables used in the final model

Independent variables Description Rationale
GDP State-wise GDP estimates To capture structural features of the state

Lagged electricity State-wise electricity demand 1. To capture structural features of the state
demand (1 month lag) estimates 2. To capture short-term dynamics of
electricity demand
Lagged electricity State-wise electricity demand 1. To capture structural features of the state
demand (12 month lag) estimates 2. To capture long-term dynamics of
electricity demand
HDDs Heating degree days To capture weather dynamics of the state
CDDs Cooling degree days To capture weather dynamics of the state
Rainfall Monthly estimates for state-wise To capture weather dynamics of the state
rainfall
Period breaks Dummy variable reflecting To capture structural time break
variation in demand due to
change in government
State fixed effects Fixed effect for each state Capture state-specific time invariant factors
that impact electricity demand in the state
but are unobservable to the econometrician
Month fixed effects Fixed effect for each month Capture seasonal factors that impact
electricity demand in the state but are
unobservable to the econometrician

Historical trends
of variables
3
3. Historical trends of variables
3.1 Trends in electricity demand
Overall, India has seen a rise in Electrical Energy Requirement and electrical energy met over the years. Figure
3.1 maps the change in the country’s Electrical Energy Requirement and electrical energy met during the years
2002-03 to 2016-17. The electrical energy not met as measured by the gap between these two electricity
measures has been decreasing over the years.
Figure 3.1 Trends in electrical energy requirement and electrical energy met
The CAGR of electricity energy requirement over this period has been 5.4%. Growth over the period may be
attributed to factors such as economic development, growing population, rise in standard of living coupled with
greater electrical appliance penetration, poverty alleviation, urbanisation etc.
Figure 3.2 presents state-wise CAGR of total Electrical Energy Requirement between 2002-03 and 2015-16. Some
less developed states with low base Electrical Energy Requirement in the year 2002-03, such as Bihar, Arunachal
Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, have witnessed a significant rate of growth during the period 2002-03 to 2015-16.

Figure 3.2 State-wise CAGR of Electrical Energy Requirement
Figure 3. 1 State wise
Figure 3.3 plots each state’s share in total Electrical Energy Requirement of India. It is observed that 17 states —
Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra
Pradesh & Telangana (bifurcated on a 49:51 basis), West Bengal, Haryana, Delhi, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and
Kerala account for 92.4% of Electrical Energy Requirement in FY 2015-16.
Figure 3.3 State-wise electricity shares

Between FY 2002-03 and FY 2011-12, there seems to be a trend of sigma convergence 7 in the per-capita electricity
consumption between states, with a decline in the dispersion in per-capita electricity consumption between
states. However, this trend of convergence seems to have reversed post 2011-12 and there appears to be a recent
spike in disparity in inter-state per capita electricity consumption in the year 2015-16, as can be seen in Figure
3.4. The dispersion is measured by computing a coefficient of variation (CV) for each financial year, where:
CV = (Standard deviation of per capita electricity consumption across states)
(Mean per capita electricity consumption across states)
Figure 3.4 Coefficient of variation
However, states with lower initial per capita electricity demand in the year 2002-03 seem to be growing faster
when compared to states with higher initial per capita electricity demand in the year 2002-03. Figure 3.5 indicates
that all states are converging towards the same equilibrium in terms of electricity demand per capita and growth
rate, which is known as beta convergence.
7
Sigma convergence refers to a decline in relative difference or ’dispersion‘ over time of per capita values of any variable (such as income or electricity
demand) across economies.

Figure 3.5 Beta convergence
Furthermore, electrical energy not met or electricity shortage is mapped at an all-India level and at a state level
(Figure 3.6 and Figure 3.7). The country’s prevailing trend over the years is declining shortage over the years
2008-09 to 2016-17. Relatively less developed states such as Jammu and Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar seem
to record greater shortage during the year 2016-17. This may be on account of development seen in these states
during the same period; higher pace of development is likely to put additional pressure on requirement for
electrical energy.
Figure 3.6 All-India electrical energy not met
All India Electricitry Shortage as Percentage of Electricity Requirement

(FY 2003-FY 2017)
12
10
Percentage (%)
8
6
4
2
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Financial Year

Figure 3.7 State-wise electrical energy not met in FY 2017
Electricity Requirement not met in FY2017

3500
Electricity Requirement Not Met (in MUs)
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Meghalaya
Jharkhand
Jammu and Kashmir
Manipur
Mizoram
Puducherry
Tripura
Arunachal Pradesh
Bihar
Kerala
Goa
Punjab
Andhra Pradesh
Chattishgarh
Maharashtra
Sikkim
Tamil Nadu
Madhya Pradesh
Nagaland
Rajasthan
Telangana
Uttarakhand
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
Assam
Himachal Pradesh
Gujarat
Orissa
Chandigarh
Delhi
Haryana
Karnataka
Figure 3.8 presents the data on annual Peak Electricity Demand at the all-India level. Annual Peak Electricity
Demand in India has seen a consistent rise over the period 2002-03 to 2016-17. At the same time, Peak Electricity
Demand not met has shown a downward trend. Figure 3.9 shows that states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh,
Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh have the highest Peak Electricity Demand in the year 2016-17.
Figure 3.8 All India Peak Electricity Demand

Figure 3.9 Peak Electricity Demand in FY 2016-17
3.2 Drivers of electricity demand
3.2.1 GDP
As seen in Figure 3.10, India’s GDP has more than doubled during FY 2002-03 to FY 2016-17. Figure 3.11 presents
data at the state level.
Figure 3.10 GDP movement over time
At the state-level, it is observed that the states such as Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka,
Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Gujarat, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan account for the major
portion of the country’s GDP.

Figure 3.11 State shares in GDP
A likely shift in the position of states when compared on the basis of electricity demand growth rate and GDP
shares is anticipated to take place. The GDP share of relatively less developed states is expected to increase in
future with relatively faster growth as compared to the more developed states. This shift can be attributed to
development, rising standards of living and latent demand that are likely to exist in many states on account of
insufficient T&D infrastructure, technology penetration, among other factors.
3.2.2 Population
As seen in Figure 3.12, India’s population has increased by a CAGR of 1.45% during the period 2002-03 to 2016-
17. Some states with relatively lower population are seen to have greater electricity demand as compared to
states with larger populations. Delhi, Haryana and Punjab have higher electricity demand as compared to states
such as Jharkhand, Kerala and Odisha. This difference in state demands can be attributed to the consumer-
segment break-up, industrialisation and per capita income. States such as Haryana and Punjab have a greater
segment of their demand arising from the industrial and agricultural consumers, while Kerala and Odisha have a
consumption pattern skewed towards domestic consumption.
Figure 3.12 Population increase over time

3.2.3 Electricity price
In theory, the electricity price is expected to impact electricity demand negatively. Unlike other goods, consumers
of electricity do not face a single price, but rather a price schedule that specifies block pricing across different
segments of usage- Agriculture, Commercial, Domestic, Industrial (Large, Medium and Small industries.)
Figure 3.13 Trends in electricity prices
While the nominal electricity prices across all usage segments have consistently increased over time (Figure 3.13),
there is a declining trend for the average real price movement (Figure 3.14). This indicates that the effective price
that the consumer pays for electricity, after the adjustment for inflation, has decreased between FY 2002-03 to
FY 2015-16. But during FY 2011-12 to 2013-14, it is observed that there was a sharp increase in nominal prices
for all the categories. The real price during this period increases as the percentage increase in the nominal price
is greater than the percentage increase in the price index during this period.
Figure 3.14 Real electricity price movement
Note: Base year for real price calculation is FY 2012

3.2.4 Time periods of structural change
For our analysis, we have divided the time period between FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16 into four distinct time
periods, according to the political scenario. It was observed from the data that a distinct pattern of growth seemed
to emerge in the year 2015-16. There was a general increasing electricity demand trend for all states prior to the
year 2014-15. However, the change of government at the centre in the year 2014-15 coincided with a change in
pattern of electricity demand — there was very high growth for states such as Bihar, Goa and the north-eastern
states compared to stagnant growth for states such as Delhi or Haryana.
It seems that a change of government at the centre brings about a change in policy regime and can be perceived
as a structural time break. Therefore, the time periods of structural change have been defined on the basis of
election years as: FY 2002-03 to FY 2003-04, FY 2004-05 to FY2008-09, FY 2009-10 to FY 2013-14 and FY 2014-
15 to FY 2016-17.
The year-on-year growth rates for Electrical Energy Requirement, GDP and population during these periods are
shown in the graph below:
Figure 3.15 Growth rates of Electrical Energy Requirement, GDP and population
It is important to note that our model used for analysis in this report is at the level of the state and electricity is a
state subject. While changes at the centre do influence electricity demand, equally critical would be the changes
at the state level. Thus, the econometric model estimated in this study allows for a different response of electricity
demand for different time periods for each state. This has been incorporated in the model by including state-
specific time period dummies.
3.2.5 Monthly rainfall
As regards rainfall, electricity demand is expected to have a negative relationship with rainfall, i.e. as rainfall
increases, demand is likely to fall. This is because we would expect rainfall to create more favourable weather
conditions in most states, thereby reducing demand of electricity for cooling. In agricultural states, rainfall would
reduce the use of irrigation pumps.

Thus, the dominant consumer segment in each state plays an important role in this relationship. Climate variables
have a greater impact on demand in states where a significant portion of electricity consumption is attributed to
domestic, commercial and agricultural consumers.
Figure 3.16 Trends in monthly rainfall
As can be observed in Figure 3.16, the monsoon months of June–Sept consistently receive the highest levels of
rainfall, with the maximum rainfall being received particularly in July in terms of an all-India average.
The impact of rainfall on electricity demand varies by season, temperature, humidity and the level of rainfall.
Figure 3.17 plots normalised electricity demand and monthly rainfall in Delhi as an illustrative case. The Electrical
Energy Requirement is normalised by subtracting the yearly minimum observed value of demand in the respective
year and dividing it by the observed yearly range (maximum demand minus minimum demand) of the Electrical
Energy Requirement.
For rainfall levels less than 50 mm, the relationship seems relatively weak with high rainfall associated with both
high and low electricity demand. At higher levels of rainfall, the relationship seems to be negative. In India,
generally, higher rainfall is experienced during summer and thus associated with higher temperature and
humidity. To estimate the non-linear impact of rainfall on electricity demand, rainfall variable is categorised into
four different groups: rainfall between 0-50 mm, 50-100 mm, 100-200 mm and above 200 mm. The estimated
electricity demand model discussed in the next chapter estimates different electricity demand responses for these
categories.

Figure 3.17: Normalised Electrical Energy Requirement and monthly rainfall for Delhi (FY 2016)
3.2.6 Temperature variables: HDDs and CDDs
To capture the non-linear impact of temperature on electricity demand, degree day approach has been adopted.
Monthly HDDs/CDDs represent the number of days in a month on which the temperature is respectively
below/above the threshold cooling/heating point and by how many degrees. The threshold is a point over or
under which the heating or cooling appliances will be switched on. HDD, CDD and threshold points are all
measured in degree Celsius. It is important to note that electricity equipment penetration is an important factor
for the impact of high HDD/CDD to translate into higher electricity demand. If there is minimal penetration such
that heating or cooling equipment are not available to the people during low and high temperature, respectively,
then electricity demand will not be very sensitive to these weather variables.
Daily HDD and CDD may be defined as follows:
𝑯𝑯𝑯𝑯𝑯𝑯𝒅𝒅 =max (0, 𝑇𝑇∗−𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇)
𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝒅𝒅 =max (0, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇−𝑇𝑇∗)
Where, d is a specific day in a particular month, T* is the threshold temperature of cold or heat, and Tt the
observed temperature on day t. This provides the sum of daily HDD and CDD in a given month. Monthly HDD
and CDD, which represents the number of days in each month where the temperature is below or above the
threshold, are computed as follows:
𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴 =Σ𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴𝑴 =Σ𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪m
All references to CDD and HDD here forth will imply monthly HDD and CDD (MHDD and MCDD).

With reference to the analysis conducted in the research study by Gupta (2016) 8, the threshold temperature for
India has been assumed to be 21°C for the construction of monthly CDD and HDD for all states. Figure 3.18 and
Figure 3.19 give trends in CDD and HDD for all state-level temperature observations for the period FY 2002-03
to FY 2015-16.
Figure 3.18 Trends in CDD
Figure 3.19 Trends in HDD
Table 3.1 shows that there is a significant difference in mean CDD across states. While Andhra Pradesh,
Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Telangana have mean monthly CDD above 200, other states such as
8
Gupta, E., 2016. The effect of development on the climate sensitivity of electricity demand in India. Climate Change Economics, 7(02),
p.1650003.

Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Jammu and Kashmir clock mean monthly CDDs under 100. For majority of the
states, however, CDD ranges between 150 and 200. Furthermore, variance in CDD differs even more drastically
in some states over the others. This effectively means that a change in meteorological variables in these states
will likely impact electricity demand more than other states which record lower variance. States with high
standard deviation (>122.5) include Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
HDD, on the other hand, also varies across states; however, the mean and variance, in this case, are as
anticipated lower than CDDs. Jammu and Kashmir has the highest mean HDD in India. Variance, in this case,
was also noted as significant. Uttarakhand, Punjab and Haryana also record HDD above 50 on average.
Table 3.1 State-wise trends in HDD, CDD and rainfall (FY 2003 - FY 2016)
State HDD (degree Celsius) Rainfall (mm) CDD (degree Celsius)
Mean Standard Mean Standard Mean Standard
deviation deviation deviation
Andhra 0.00 0.00 74.95 72.31 228.31 76.08
Pradesh
Arunachal 201.43 175.33
Pradesh
Assam 22.51 41.96 188.81 177.09 122.10 95.19
Bihar 27.61 55.51 93.71 117.52 179.47 128.15
Chhattisgarh 9.87 20.36 104.01 137.00 150.65 109.92
Chandigarh 69.96 105.01 39.97 54.99 144.33 133.33
Delhi 45.30 76.92 39.97 54.99 181.64 148.29
Goa 0.00 0.00 265.24 395.10 195.99 41.87
Gujarat 3.01 8.59 69.48 118.07 196.92 98.58
Himachal 84.96 82.05
Pradesh
Haryana 53.95 89.42 39.97 54.99 186.99 157.56
Jharkhand 21.09 39.51 98.01 117.48 147.39 108.43
Jammu and 244.95 205.14 94.05 68.99 20.02 34.37
Kashmir
Karnataka 0.02 0.14 147.91 168.69 126.38 55.65
Kerala 0.00 0.00 241.89 236.78 209.15 30.51
Maharashtra 0.37 1.32 122.53 170.59 176.13 83.75
Meghalaya 22.51 41.96 188.81 177.09 122.10 95.19
Manipur 56.49 78.52 145.74 132.89 68.09 61.30
Madhya 24.30 46.57 85.19 126.84 165.73 132.17
Pradesh
Mizoram 18.56 38.89 145.74 132.89 145.91 91.54
Nagaland 56.43 78.55 145.74 132.89 68.04 61.31
Orissa 4.54 11.03 125.03 147.21 185.29 106.70
Punjab 69.96 105.01 43.32 53.66 144.33 133.33
Puducherry 0.00 0.00 80.45 76.22 217.31 61.09
Rajasthan 28.15 53.77 39.49 63.06 207.92 153.34

State HDD (degree Celsius) Rainfall (mm) CDD (degree Celsius)
Sikkim 208.16 212.11
Telangana 0.76 2.71 74.95 72.31 201.77 108.65
Tamil Nadu 0.00 0.00 80.45 76.22 217.31 61.09
Tripura 18.56 38.89 145.74 132.89 145.91 91.54
Uttarakhand 71.29 99.70 127.51 162.48 93.73 89.99
Uttar 40.76 74.82 93.51 122.09 172.64 137.03
Pradesh
West Bengal 10.80 24.34 166.64 168.66 182.95 104.43
For the entire period FY 2003 to FY 2016, the national CDD average stands around 160 while the HDD average
is about six.
The above degree-day approach estimates the non-linear relationship between electricity demand and
temperature by a piece-wise linear function using two segments: one for the summer where the temperature
is above the predetermined threshold temperature, and another one for winter where the temperature is below
the same threshold temperature. This non-linear relationship between weather variables (CDD, HDD) and
electricity demand is illustrated using the data for Delhi in Figures 3.20 and 3.21. The Electrical Energy
Requirement is normalised by subtracting the yearly minimum observed value of demand in the respective year
and dividing it by the observed yearly range (maximum demand minus minimum demand) of the Electrical
Energy Requirement.
Figure 3.20 Normalized Electrical Energy Requirement and CDD (degree Celsius) for Delhi

Figure 3.21 Normalized Electrical Energy Requirement and HDD (degree days) for Delhi

Choice of model
for forecasting
electricity
demand and
estimation of
results
4
4. Choice of model for forecasting electricity
4.
demand and estimation of results
The details of estimation results of the various models estimated in Chapter 2 are discussed in this chapter. The
most appropriate model is selected based on the criterion of out-sample prediction.
4.1 Estimation results
The estimated coefficients and associated standard errors for different electrical energy forecasting models (long
panel, PAM and SUR) are shown in Tables (A3.1) – (A3.5) of Annexure 3. For long panel and PAM, six equations
are estimated, one for each region and one for the all-India level. For the SUR model, 28 equations are estimated,
one for each state.
R-square or coefficient of determination represents the proportion of the variance for a dependent variable
explained by all the independent variables. It is a commonly used measure of goodness of fit of a linear model.
The R-square of all the estimated models is high indicating that selected independent variables well explain
electricity demand. All independent variables have expected signs (i.e., the impact of any variable to
increase/decrease of the overall Electrical Energy Requirement or Peak Electricity Demand is as expected) and turn
out to be statistically significant in all models except HDD. A change in one unit of the log of a variable 9 is
approximately equal to a 1% change in its value. It is observed that the impact of different variables varies over
time, regions and states. The impact of different variables on electricity demand from all models is discussed
below.
4.1.1 Lagged electricity demand
Both electricity demand lagged by period one and electricity demand lagged by period 12 have positive and
significant impact in PAM models. According to PAM for the total electricity requirement (Table A3.1), at the all-
India level, the coefficient of electricity requirement lagged by period one is 0.61 and the coefficient of
requirement lagged by period 12 is 0.08. This means that a 1% increase in the previous period Electrical Energy
Requirement increases Electrical Energy Requirement in the current period by 0.61% while a 1% increase in
Electrical Energy Requirement lagged by 12 periods increases Electrical Energy Requirement by 0.08%. The speed
of adjustment for the model is obtained using the two coefficients corresponding to Electrical Energy Requirement
lagged by 1 and 12 months. The short-run and long-run elasticities are related according to the following
equation:
𝐸𝐸𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝐸𝐸𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆
𝐸𝐸𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 = =
1 − 𝛽𝛽1 − 𝛽𝛽12 Λ
9
The logarithmic form of the variables have been used as the dependent variable and explanatory variables to run the model

1
The term indicates the fraction of the gap between the current electricity consumption and the equilibrium level
Λ
of consumption that is closed every year. Therefore, the number of years required to bridge this gap towards the
equilibrium value is indicated by Λ.
The estimated speed of adjustment of short-run deviation from the long-run equilibrium path is about 31% per
annum at the all-India level. This implies that the short-run demand values will converge to the long-run
equilibrium in 3.2 years. The speed of adjustment turns out to be the highest for the northern region at 42% per
annum or 2.4 years and the lowest for the eastern region at 22% per annum or 4.5 years.
According to PAM for all-India Peak Electricity Demand (Table A3.5), at the all-India level, the coefficient of Peak
Electricity Demand lagged by period one is 0.62. This means that a 1% increase in the previous period Peak
Electricity Demand increases Peak Electricity Demand in the current period by 0.62%.
This result is very close to the result obtained for the total Electrical Energy Requirement. The estimated speed of
adjustment of short-run deviation from the long-run equilibrium path is about 38% per annum at the all-India
level. This implies that the short-run demand values will converge to the long-run equilibrium in 2.6 years.
4.1.2 Gross domestic product
Income has a positive sign in all models and has a statistically significant impact on the dependent variable (at
1% level of significance in all models). According to PAM model estimated for all-India panel for Electrical Energy
Requirement, a 1% increase in the previous year's gross state domestic product results in about 0.23% increase
in state’s Electrical Energy Requirement in the current period on an average. Since the short-run GDP elasticity is
well below unity, GDP growth, just by itself, with everything else held constant, results in a much less than
proportional increase in electricity demand. As expected, the elasticity turns out to be the lowest for western
India, which comprises two rich and big states of India — Gujarat and Maharashtra. The elasticity in all other
regions vary between 0.2 and 0.3.
The long-run elasticity level at all-India turns out to be same from both panel data models — PAM and long
panel. The long-run elasticity of GDP at the all-India level is 0.74, which is more than three times the short-run
elasticity of GDP. The elasticity is the lowest in the western region (0.48–0.49) and the highest in the eastern
region (0.91–0.92).
Figure 4.1 and Figure 4.2 show that the state-level income (as measured by GDP or GDP per capita in SUR model)
elasticities as estimated from the SUR model are in line with the above estimates from the two panel data models.
High income elasticity of over 1 has been found in states such as Bihar, West Bengal and Chhattisgarh. As
discussed in Chapter 3, relatively slower growth in electricity demand per capita has been observed in developed
states and relatively faster growth in electricity demand per capita has been observed in developing states,
indicating convergence in living standards over time. Figures A4.1–A4.4 in the appendix plot sectoral shares of
electricity consumption for all states over time. For all the states with high income elasticity of demand, the share
of the domestic consumption has increased significantly over time due to electrification of new households. Thus,
the higher growth in electricity demand (due to expansion of rural electrification in the past) relative to growth in
income during the same period resulted in high income elasticity for these states. In most of these states,
commercial sectors such as, real estate and hotels have further contributed significantly to the increased demand
over the period of analysis.

Figure 4.1 Income (GDP) Elasticity of Electrical Energy Requirement
GDP Elasticity of Electrical Energy Requirement

1.4
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Figure 4.2 Income (GDP per Capita) Elasticity of Electrical Energy Requirement
GDP per Capita Elasticity of Electrical Energy Requirement

1.4
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
According to PAM for all-India Peak Electricity Demand (Table A3.5), the coefficient of GDP is 0.25. This means
that a 1% increase in GDP increases Peak Electricity Demand by 0.25% in the short-run. The estimated long-run
Peak Electricity Demand elasticity at 0.66 is 2.6 times the short-run elasticity. As per state-level regional PAM
(Table A3.4), the short-run GDP elasticity of Peak Electricity Demand at 0.09 turns out to be the lowest for the
western region. For all other regions, it is between 0.17 and 0.21.

4.1.3 Real electricity price
As expected, real electricity price has a negative impact on electricity demand in all models. A 1% increase in real
electricity price results in a small 0.02% decrease in the Electrical Energy Requirement at 15% level of significance
in the short-run at the all-India level as estimated from PAM (Table A3.1). The long-run price elasticity at the all-
India level at 0.06% is more than three times the short-run elasticity. A 1% increase in real electricity price results
in about 0.06% decrease in Electrical Energy Requirement in the long-run vis-à-vis 0.02% in the short-run. This
reinforces that electricity price increases will have much greater impact on lowering electricity demand in the
long-run. This is expected as people are likely to adjust more to electricity price increases over time by switching
to more energy efficient alternatives, alternative sources of energy (primarily renewables) and captive generation.
Electricity demand is typically price inelastic for residential, small and medium industrial and commercial
consumers; however, agriculture consumers and large industrial consumers would shift to solar-based pumps
and captive generation, respectively.
Investments in solar pumps/captive generation are long-run decisions and impact grid electricity demand in the
long-run — hence long-run elasticities are higher than short-run elasticities (the consumers are not able to
respond very systematically to changes in retail electricity prices in the short-run).
Relatively small estimated impact of electricity price can be further inferred from the fact that electricity retail
prices are ‘regulated’ and not discovered through a market mechanism, hence, the typical strong negative relation
between price and demand may not be observed – the marginal utility from consumption of electricity by most
consumers may be greater than the regulated prices (this is expected because electricity has typically served social
objectives of the various governments). The negative and ’low’ value of elasticity seems to be driven not so much
by the ‘response’ to real electricity price by each state individually, but the model seems to be inferring it from
the relationship across states. This is illustrated in Figure 4.3:

Figure 4.3 Per Capita Electrical Energy Requirement and Electricity Price (FY2016)
Per Capita Electricity Requirement (Kwh per Capita)

FY2016
4000
3500
GA
3000
Per Capita Electricity Demand (Kwh per
2500
Capita)
2000
PY HR PB
GJ DL
1500
CH
TN HP
JK UP MH
AP
1000 KA
CG RJ
MP
KL
SKJH OR
500 ML WB
UK
AR
MZ NL
MN AS TR
BR
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Electricity Price (Paise/Kwh)
An examination of the coefficients of region-specific models show that the price elasticity in short run is relatively
higher than the all-India average in the southern (0.12) region and western region (0.07). This can possibly be
explained by the relatively higher average real price in the western region (Figure 4.4). In addition, the greater
captive generation in the industrial sector in the western and southern regions makes utility electricity demand
more sensitive to price changes.

Figure 4.4 State Average Electricity Price
Real Electricity Price (FY 2015-2016) base year FY2012

700
600
Electricity Prices (Paise/kWh)
500
400
300
200
100
0
Bihar
Meghalaya
Manipur
Arunachal Pradesh
Kerala
Tripura
Jharkhand
Chhattishgarh
Andhra Pradesh
Mizoram
Tamil Nadu
Sikkim
Goa
Puducherry
Jammu and Kashmir
Maharashtra
Punjab
Uttarakhand
Himachal Pradesh
Assam
West Bengal
Madhya Pradesh
Nagaland
Rajasthan
Odisha
Uttar Pradesh
Gujarat
Chandigarh
Haryana
Delhi
Karnataka
As in the case of short-run price elasticities, the long-run elasticities also vary across regions (0.02–0.38) and
states.
The state-level long-run price elasticities as estimated from the SUR model are plotted in Figure 4.5. High price
elasticity has been found in states such as Bihar (-0.6), Jharkhand (-0.75), Karnataka (-0.61), Goa (-0.89).
Figure 4.5 Price Elasticity of Electrical Energy Requirement
Absolute Real Price Elasticity of Electricity Demand From SUR Model

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Orissa Punjab Kerela Gujarat Jammu and Pondicherry Bihar Karnataka Jharkhand Goa
Kashmir
4.1.4 Cooling degree days (CDD)
The impact of CDD is positive and significant in most models. The estimated coefficient is 0.06 in short run. This
implies that Electrical Energy Requirement increases by 6% per 100-degree Celsius increase in CDD in the short-
run at the all-India level as per PAM (Table A3.1). The impact estimated is higher in relatively hot and rich regions
in India — North (7%), West (7%) and South (7%).

The estimated long-run impact at the all-India level is higher from PAM (19.3% per 100 degree Celsius) than the
long panel model (7% per 100 degree Celsius). Both models account for state-specific month dummies, which
are correlated with temperature. This indicates that the month dummies absorb some impact of CDD in these
models and make CDD coefficient relatively small. Dropping the month dummies is not advisable since they also
capture many other omitted variables. From the SUR model, CDD has relatively higher impact in hot and rich
states/UTs such as Maharashtra (14% per 100 degree Celsius), Gujarat (8% per 100 degree Celsius), Tamil Nadu
(10% per 100 degree Celsius), Chandigarh (10% per 100 degree Celsius) and Punjab (9% per 100 degree Celsius)
(Figure 4.6). In case of Assam higher percentage increase of demand per 100 degree Celsius can be attributed to
higher share of domestic demand while in the case of Madhya Pradesh it can be attributed to higher share of
agricultural sector and hot and humid temperature.
Figure 4.6 Impact of CDD on electricity demand
% Change in Electrical Energy Requirement per 100 degree Celsius of CDD

18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
According to PAM for all-India Peak Electricity Demand (Table A3.5), the coefficient of CDD is 0.04 in short run.
This means that Peak Electricity Demand increases by 4% in the short-run and 10% in the long-run every 100-
degree Celsius increase in CDD. As per regional PAM (Table A3.4), the CDD impact on Peak Electricity Demand
vary between 4% and 5% in the short-run for every 100-degree Celsius increase in CDD across different regions.
4.1.5 Heating degree days (HDD)
The impact of HDD is positive but insignificant in most models.
4.1.6 Rainfall
The impact of rainfall is negative and significant in most models. At the all-India level, the estimated impact of
rainfall varies across different rainfall categories (as discussed in Chapter 2). It is observed that the reduction in
electricity demand is higher when the level of rainfall is lower. A one unit (100 mm) increase in rainfall results in
6% reduction in demand when rainfall is in the range of 0–50 mm, 4% reduction when rainfall is in the range of
50–100 mm, 3% reduction when rainfall is in the range of 100–150 mm and 2% reduction when rainfall is above

200 mm (Table A3.1). In India, higher rainfall generally occurs during summer when temperature and humidity
are high. Thus, an increase in rainfall during summer may reduce load lesser than in winter. In addition, the
agricultural load is very high in many states during winter. Higher rainfall during winter can significantly reduce
the agricultural load due to pumps. The estimated impact of rainfall turns out to be the highest in the northern
region due to the high agricultural load.
The estimated average long-run impact at the all-India level in all four categories is 12% reduction in electricity
demand with one unit (100 mm) increase in rainfall. The impact of rainfall varies across states (Figure 4.7). The
results from the SUR model confirms the above findings as the highest impact of rainfall is observed in the
northern agricultural states such as Rajasthan (13% per 100mm), Punjab (7% per 100mm) and Haryana (7% per
100mm).
Figure 4.7 Impact of Rainfall on Electrical Energy Requirement
% Change in Electricity Demand per 100 mm rainfall

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
According to PAM for all-India Peak Electricity Demand (Table A3.5), a one unit (100 mm) increase in rainfall
results in 5% reduction when rainfall is in the range of 50–100 mm, 5% reduction when rainfall is in the range
of 100–150 mm and 4% reduction when rainfall is above 200 mm.
4.2. Out-sample prediction and choice of the model
In the section above, the relationships between different variables are reported. However, a forecasting exercise
is not just about explaining relationships but models also need to be tested on whether they are good in terms
of using historical relationships to project into the future. One method to do this is to assume that one has data
till, for example, FY 2014-15 and estimate the models using data from FY 2002-2003 to FY 2014-2015. Thereafter,
forecasts for the period FY 2015-16 are made based on the estimated model and the one that fits the actual data
for the period best, is the best model used for forecasting beyond FY 2015-16. It is found that PAM gives the
lowest mean absolute percentage error at the all-India level and thus forecasts obtained from this model are the
most recommended scenario (see Figure 4.8). Two versions of PAM were estimated — all-India panel model and

regional level panel model. As the average Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for PAM-all India is very close
to PAM at the regional level, PAM at the regional level is selected as it performs better when we compare
deviations of forecast demand (keeping weather and other explanatory variables same in both models) from
actual demand at the all-India level during 2017 and 2018 (See Figure 4.8 and Figure 4.9). Figure 4.10, which
plots the predicted Electrical Energy Requirement from PAM (regional) with actual Electrical Energy Requirement
during FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16, shows that the model fits the actual Electrical Energy Requirement quite closely.
Figure 4.8 Comparing MAPEs at All-India for all Estimated Models (%)
Comparing MAPES at All-India for all Estimated Models (%)

8.00 7.58
7.00 6.73
5.91
6.00
5.00
MAPES (%)
4.00
3.00
2.06 1.95
2.00
1.00
0.00
SURE (Regional) PAM (Regional) Long Panel (Regional) PAM ALL India Long Panel ALL India
Figure 4.9 Comparison of All-India forecasts (PAM All India, PAM Region) with Actual
Comparison of All-India forecasts (PAM All India, PAM Region) with Actual
1.4
% Deviations from Actual Values
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2017 2018
PAM All India PAM Region

Figure 4.10 Electricity Total Annual Demand India Actual and Predicted from PAM (2003-2016)
For each state, two forecasts are obtained — one from regional PAM and another from the SUR model. While
PAM estimates the future demand assuming regional convergence in the standard of living over time, the SUR
model estimates state demand based on state-specific path observed in the previous period under study. Figure
4.11 shows that for many states PAM at the regional level outperforms the SUR model in terms of out sample
MAPE for 2016. However, for some states/UTs such as Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab and Maharashtra, the SUR
model has lower MAPE as compared to PAM.

% Error (MAPE)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
and SUR
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Chandigarh
Delhi
Goa
Gujarat
Haryana
Jharkhand
Jammu & Kashmir
Karnataka
SUR (Regional)
61
Kerala
Maharashtra
Meghalaya
Manipur
Madhya Pradesh
PAM (Regional)
Mizoram
Nagaland
Orissa
Punjab
Puducherry
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

Tripura
State- level Annual MAPE of Electrical Energy Requirement for 2016 from PAM and SUR
Uttarakhand
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
Figure 4.11 State-level Annual MAPE of Electrical Energy Requirement for 2016 from PAM
Electricity
demand forecasts
from FY 2016-17
to FY 2036-37
5
5. Electricity demand forecasts from
5.
2016-17 to 2036-37
In this chapter, India’s electricity demand (in terms of Electrical Energy Requirement and Peak Electricity Demand)
is projected under three different GDP scenarios (Business As Usual, Optimistic and Pessimistic) and 14 different
weather scenarios from Regional PAM (henceforth termed as “PAM” only) & SUR model.
In all future scenarios, it has been assumed that real electricity prices will remain constant at the 2015-16 level.
On one hand, future electricity prices are expected to fall with increasing supply from renewables. On the other
hand, prices are expected to increase with expected increase in transmission and distribution costs associated
with renewables. Overall, the two effects in opposite direction are likely to offset each other and hence constant
real prices have been assumed in future.
In all the future scenarios, population at the all-India level are expected to grow as per the medium growth
scenario of the United Nations Development program (UNDP) (see Table A5.1 in the Annexure 5).
In all scenarios, for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18, the actual or provisional estimates of GDP are used. For FY 2016-
17, the actual GDP (at constant prices) growth rate of 7.1% is obtained from the Ministry of Statistics and
Programme Implementation (MOSPI). For FY 2017-18, the provisional estimate of GDP (at constant prices) growth
rate of 6.6% is obtained from the MOSPI. For subsequent years, a different rate of growth for GDP has been
assumed for different scenarios.
5.1 Business-as-Usual (BAU)
The BAU case assumes that GDP at the all-India level, used in the above model to forecast the future Electrical
Energy Requirement and Peak Electricity Demand till the year 2036-37, will continue to grow at the average
CAGR of about 7.3% obtained during FY 2000-01 to FY 2017-18, and there will be no significant deviations from
these past trends. This may be considered as the most likely scenario. Under this scenario, for FY 2018-19, the
expected growth rate of 7.5% in GDP has been taken from Niti Aayog. It is assumed that GDP rises gradually
from 7.5% in FY 2018-19 to 8% till FY 2022-23, declines slowly to 7% in FY 2029-30 and thereafter grows at 7%
per annum till FY 2036-37 (See Table A5.1 in the Annexure 5 for year-specific growth rate assumptions).
5.2 Scenario for faster growth of GDP
Niti Aayog aims to achieve relatively faster growth of 8% as compared to 7.3% achieved during FY 2000-01–FY
2017-18. Attaining the growth rate of 8% per annum on the sustained basis in the future would require concerted
internal reforms to transform the structure of India’s economy as well as favourable global environment. Policy
reforms such as ‘Make in India’ can increase the stagnant share of the manufacturing sector and provide
employment to a large pool of unskilled labour who are currently unemployed or partially employed.

5.3 Scenario for lower growth of GDP
The low growth scenario assumes that GDP rises by 6.5% every year between FY 2018-19 and FY 2036-37. In
the recent years, there has been deceleration in the growth rate of GDP below 7%. The low growth scenario
assumes this lower growth rate 6.5% to continue in future.
5.4 Forecast of Energy Requirement through PAM Model
In the BAU scenario for PAM, Electrical Energy Requirement is projected to increase at a CAGR of 4.86% for the
period FY 2016-17 to FY 2036-37. Energy Requirement is projected to increase from 1152.4 BU in 2016-17 to
1886.9 BU in 2026-27, 2378.7 BU in 2031-32 and 2976.3 BU in 2036-37. Figure 5.1 and Table A5.2 present the
total electricity requirement forecast for India from FY 2016-17 to FY 2036-37. Under the baseline scenario,
2016-17 to 1905.5 BU in 2026-27, 2458.9 BU in 2031-32 and 3175.4 BU in 2036-37. Under the optimistic
In the pessimistic scenario of 6.5 % GDP growth, Electrical Energy Requirement is projected to increase at a CAGR
of 4.33% for the period FY 2016-17 to FY 2036-37. Energy Requirement is projected to increase from 1152.4 BU
in 2016-17 to 1776.9 BU in 2026-27, 2186.7 BU in 2031-32 and 2691.07 BU in 2036-37. Figure 5.1 and Table
A5.4 present the total electricity demand forecast for India during FY 2016-17–FY 2036-37. Under the low growth
scenario, Electrical Energy Requirement is likely to increase 2.33 times between FY 2016-17 and FY 2036-37.
An overview of Electrical Energy Requirement (MU) and its CAGR for various scenarios are summarized in Table
5.1a and 5.1b below:
Table 5.1a Electrical Energy Requirement (in BU)

Year 7.3% GDP 8% GDP 6.5% GDP Projection by
(BAU scenario) (optimistic (pessimistic PEUM
scenario) scenario)
2016-17 1152.4 1152.4 1152.4 1160.4
2021-22 1471.5 1477.5 1443.5 1566.0
2026-27 1886.9 1905.4 1776.9 2047.4
2031-32 2378.7 2458.9 2186.7 2530.5
2036-37 2976.3 3175.4 2691.07 3049.4

*All forecasts are reported for average weather conditions. See details of each scenario

Table 5.1b: Electrical Energy Requirement CAGR (%) from PAM
Year 7.3% GDP 8% GDP 6.5% GDP Projection by PEUM
(BAU scenario) (optimistic (pessimistic
scenario) scenario)
2016-17 to 2021-22 5.01 5.10 4.61 6.18
2021-22 to 2026-27 5.10 5.22 4.24 5.51
2016-17 to 2026-27 5.05 5.16 4.43 5.84
2026-27 to 2036-37 4.66 5.24 4.24 4.06
2016-17 to 2036-37 4.86 5.20 4.33 4.95
Figure 5.1 Electrical Energy Requirement under all scenarios
Electrical Energy Requirement for All India (FY2003-FY2037)

3500000
Electrical Energy Requirement (in MUs)
3000000
2500000
2000000
Actual
1500000 Base
Optimistic
1000000
Pessimistic
500000
0
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
Financial Year
5.5 Forecast of Peak Electricity Demand through PAM Model
In the BAU scenario, all-India Peak Electricity Demand is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.7%
from 158.9 GW in 2016-17 to reach 255.9 GW in 2026-27, 319.7 GW in 2031-32 and 398.1 GW in 2036-37.
Figure 5.2 and Tables (A5.5–A5.7) present Peak Electricity Demand forecast for India during FY 2016-17–FY 2036-
37. Under the baseline scenario, all-India Peak Electricity Demand is likely to increase 2.5 times between FY 2016-
17 and FY 2036-37.
An overview of Peak Electricity Demand (MW) for various future periods is shown in Figure 5.2 and Table 5.2
below:

Figure 5.2 Peak Electricity Demand
Peak Electricity Demand All India (FY2002-03 - FY 2036-37)

450000
400000
350000
Peak Demand (in MW)
300000
250000 Actual
200000 Base
150000 Optimistic
100000 Pessimistic
50000
0
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
Financial Year
Table 5.2 Peak Electricity Demand (in MW)

scenario) scenario)
2016-17 158,994 158,994 158,994 161,834
2021-22 201,481 202,330 195,133 225,751
2026-27 255,911 259,628 239,299 298,774
2031-32 319,794 333,152 293,462 370,462
2036-37 398,172 427,497 359,882 447,702
5.6 Forecast of Energy Requirement through SUR Model
All-India electricity demand forecasts as based on the regional SUR model under three different GDP scenarios-
baseline or business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, optimistic scenario and pessimistic scenario are discussed below:
An overview of Electrical Energy Requirement (Billion Units (BU)) and CAGR (%) for various scenarios is shown in
Table 5.3 and Table 5.4 below:

Table 5.3: Electrical Energy Requirement (in BU) from SUR
scenario) scenario)
2016-17 1188.2 1188.2 1188.2 1160.4
2021-22 1550.0 1558.3 1488.2 1566.0
2026-27 2056.4 2095.7 1884.5 2047.4
2031-32 2685.1 2836.8 2395.4 2530.5
2036-37 3517.4 3878.2 3066.8 3049.4
Table 5.4: Electrical Energy Requirement CAGR (%) from SUR

scenario) scenario)
2016-17 to 2021-22 5.46 5.57 4.61 6.18
2021-22 to 2026-27 5.82 6.1 4.83 5.51
2016-17 to 2026-27 5.64 5.84 4.72 5.84
2026-27 to 2036-37 5.51 6.35 4.99 4.06

2016-17 to 2036-37 5.58 6.09 4.86 4.95
5.58% from 1188.2 BU in 2016-17 to reach 2056.4 BU in 2026-27, 2685.1 BU in 2031-32 and 3517.4 BU in
2036-37. Under this baseline, Electrical Energy Requirement is likely to increase 2.96 times between FY 2016-17
and FY 2036-37.
over 6.09% from 1188.2 BU in 2016-17 to reach 2095.7 BU in 2026-27, 2836.8 BU in 2031-32 and 3878.2 BU
in 2036-37. Under this optimistic, Electrical Energy Requirement is likely to increase 3.26 times between 2016-
17 and 2036-37.
over 4.86% from 1188.2 BU in 2016-17 to reach 1884.5 BU in 2026-27, 2395.4 BU in 2031-32 and 3066.8 BU
in 2036-37. Under this low growth scenario, Electrical Energy Requirement is likely to increase 2.58 times
between 2016-17 and 2036-37.

5.7 Forecast of Peak Electricity Demand through SUR Model
An overview of Peak Electricity Demand (Megawatt (MW) for various future periods is shown in Table 5.5 below:
Table 5.5: Peak Electricity Demand (in MW) from SUR

scenario) scenario)
2016-17 163,148 163,148 163,148 161,834
2021-22 212,828 213,972 204,340 225,751
2026-27 282,361 287,751 258,747 298,774
2031-32 368,683 389,512 328,904 370,462
2036-37 482,950 532,495 421,081 447,702
5.8 Comparison of econometric method forecasts with 19th EPS

forecasts by PEUM
The difference in the forecast of Electrical Energy Requirement by PEUM and econometric method forecast from
PAM for FY 2016-17–FY 2036-37 is shown in Figure 5.3.
Figure 5.3 Comparison of forecast Electrical Energy Requirement (19th EPS using PEUM vs PAM forecast)
Comaprion of Forecast of Electrical Energy Requirement

(2016-17 to 2036-37)
3500000
Electricity Demand (in MUs)
3000000
2500000
PEUM
2000000
1500000 Actual
1000000 Base
500000
Optimistic
0
Pessimistic
Financial Year
The table below shows the difference in percentage between 19th EPS forecast by PEUM and econometric forecast
from PAM.

Table 5.6 Difference in percentage between 19th EPS forecast by PEUM and PAM forecast (Electrical
Energy Requirement)
Year 7.3% GDP (BAU 8% GDP 6.5% GDP
scenario) (Optimistic Scenario) (Pessimistic Scenario)
2016-17 -0.69 -0.69 -0.69
2026-27 -7.8 -6.9 -13.2
2031-32 -6 -2.8 -13.5
2036-37 -2.4 4 -11.75
An analysis of the differences between the econometric forecasts and the 19th EPS forecasts by PEUM vis-à-vis
PAM forecasts yields that 19th EPS forecasts by PEUM are higher than both the BAU and the higher GDP growth
scenario till FY 2031-32. For the years beyond 2031-32, the econometric method forecasts under the BAU scenario
and the higher growth scenario compare favourably to the 19th EPS forecast by PEUM.
An analysis of the differences between the econometric forecasts under SUR and the 19th EPS forecasts by PEUM
yields that the 19th EPS forecasts by PEUM compare closely to the BAU till FY 2031-32. For the years beyond 2031-
32, the econometric method forecasts by SUR under the BAU and the higher growth scenario diverge significantly
from the 19th EPS forecast by PEUM and forecasts under pessimistic scenario compare favourably with the 19th
EPS forecast by PEUM.
The difference in the forecast of Electrical Energy Requirement by PEUM and econometric method forecast from
SURE for FY 2016-17–FY 2036-37 is shown in Figure 5.4.
Figure 5.4 Comparison of forecast Electrical Energy Requirement (19th EPS using PEUM vs SURE forecast)
Comaprion of Forecast of Electrical Energy Requirement

(2016-17 to 2036-37)
4500000
4000000
Electricity Demand (in MUs)
3500000
3000000
EPS
2500000
2000000 Actual
1500000 Pessimistic
1000000 Base
500000
Optimistic
0
Financial Year

The table below shows the difference in percentage between 19th EPS forecast by PEUM and econometric forecast
from SURE.
Table 5.7 Difference in percentage between 19th EPS forecast by PEUM and SURE forecast (Electrical
Energy Requirement)
Year 7.3% GDP (BAU 8% GDP 6.5% GDP
scenario) (Optimistic Scenario) (Pessimistic Scenario)
2016-17 -2.39 -2.39 -2.39

2026-27 -0.44 -2.36 7.96
2031-32 -6.11 -12.10 5.33
2036-37 -15.34 -27.18 -0.57
Figure 5.5, Figure 5.6 and Figure 5.7 compare econometric forecasts under BAU scenario and the forecasts by
PEUM with the actual Electrical Energy Requirement in India in FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18. It is observed that
econometric forecasts are closer to the actual Electrical Energy Requirement observed during both these years.
The 19th EPS forecasts using PEUM are higher than the actual Electrical Energy Requirement in both these years
(1.5% in FY 2016-17 and 2.2% in FY 2017-18). The econometric forecasts from PAM are higher than the actual
Electrical Energy Requirement in FY 2016-17 (by 0.7%) and almost equal to the actual Electrical Energy
Requirement in 2017-18 (with deviation of -0.06%). At the state level, it is observed that for some states
econometric method forecasts are closer to the actual values of Electrical Energy Requirement, while EPS forecasts
by PEUM are closer to the actual Electrical Energy Requirement (for example: Tamil Nadu and Haryana). The
econometric method forecasts from SUR are higher than the actual Electrical Energy Requirement in FY 2016-17
(by 3.96%) and in FY 2017-18 (by 2.43%).
Figure 5.5 Comparison of forecasted Electrical Energy Requirement (19th EPS using PEUM vs econometric
method forecasts)
Comparison of All-India forecasts (PAM, SUR, PEUM)

4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
PAM SUR PEUM
2016-17 2017-18

-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Andhra Pradesh
Telangana
Assam
Bihar
Chhattisgarh
Requirement in 2016-17
Chandigarh
Delhi
Goa
Gujarat
Haryana
Jharkhand
Jammu
Karnataka
Kerala
PAM
Maharashtra
Meghalaya
71
Manipur
PEUM
Madhya Pradesh
State
Mizoram
Nagaland
SUR
Odisha
Punjab
Puducherry
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Uttarakhand
Uttar Pradesh
State-wise comparison of 2016-17 forecasts (PEUM, PAM, SUR)
West Bengal
Himachal
Sikkim
ArunachalPradesh
Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

Andaman
Lakshadweep
Daman & Diu
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Figure 5.6 Difference in percentage between state-level forecasts and actual Electrical Energy
Figure 5.7 Difference in percentage between state-level forecast and actual Electrical Energy Requirement
in 2017-18
State-wise comparison of 2017-18 forecasts (PEUM, PAM, SUR)

80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Meghalaya
Jharkhand
Bihar
Kerala
Manipur
Mizoram
Goa
Jammu
Puducherry
Tripura
Daman & Diu

Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Maharashtra
Punjab
Tamil Nadu
Himachal
Sikkim
ArunachalPradesh
Andhra Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Nagaland
Odisha
Lakshadweep
Telangana
Assam
Gujarat
Rajasthan
Uttarakhand
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
Andaman
Chandigarh
Delhi
Haryana
Karnataka
State
PAM PEUM SUR
It is observed that the relatively economically less developed states such as Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Rajasthan,
Mizoram, Tripura and Nagaland are likely to grow at a rate higher than the all-India compound annual average
rate of about 4.86% during FY 2016-17—FY 2036-37. However, for few developing states such as Chhattisgarh
and Madhya Pradesh, the CAGR from the PAM (which is the most preferred model at all-India) turns out to be
much lower relative to their past observed growth rates. Both these states belong to the western region which
also includes two most developed States-Maharashtra and Gujarat. The western region PAM results are
dominated by these two states and thus depresses future growth rates of these two developing states. To address
this issue, state-specific forecasts are obtained from the SUR model (See Figure 5.8 and Table A5.8). For both
Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, the future rate of growth is higher than the all-India average from the SUR
model and it is also aligning with their past growth rates.

Figure 5.8 Past and Future Growth rate of Electrical Energy Requirement
Comparison of past CAGR (2003-2016) of Electrical Energy Requirement with

Forcasted CAGR (2017-2037)
12
10
Meghalaya
Jharkhand
Bihar
Kerala
Manipur
Mizoram
Puducherry
Tripura
All India
Goa
Punjab
Andhra Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Jammu & Kashmir
Maharashtra
Tamil Nadu
Madhya Pradesh
Nagaland
Rajasthan
Telangana
Uttarakhand
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
Assam
Gujarat
Orissa
Chandigarh
Delhi
Haryana
Karnataka
CAGR (%) (2003-2016) CAGR (%) (2017-2037) PAM CAGR (%) (2017-2037) SUR
5.9 Impact of weather on electricity demand under baseline
For each future year, electricity demand is forecast under 14 different weather scenarios (CDD, HDD and rainfall).
Each weather scenario corresponds to a weather pattern observed during FY 2002-03-FY 2015-16. Figure 5.9
plots forecasts of electricity demand from PAM under all 14 weather scenarios for the baseline GDP growth case.
It is observed that the future demand turns out to be the highest for the weather scenario corresponding to the
year FY 2009-10 and the lowest for the weather scenario corresponding to the year FY 2013-14. The year FY
2009-10 is the hottest year with the highest monthly average state-level CDD of 167.5 degree days (6.23% higher
than average CDD) and the lowest monthly average state-level rainfall of 97.8 mm (14% lower than average
rainfall) during FY 2002-03 and FY 2015-16.
On the other hand, the year FY 2013-14 experienced the lowest monthly average state-level CDD of 150 degree
days (4.36% lower than average CDD) and average monthly state-level rainfall of 115 mm which is 2.6% higher
than the average monthly state-level rainfall during FY 2002-03–FY 2015-16.
In the FY 2009-10 weather scenario, Electrical Energy Requirement is projected to increase at an average annual
rate of 4.9% from 1173.5 BU in 2016-17 to reach 3054.87 BU in 2036-37. As compared to the Electrical Energy
Requirement obtained under the PAM baseline GDP scenario (which is the average of the forecast demand under
all 14 scenarios), Electrical Energy Requirement is about 2.63% higher in this weather scenario in 2036-37 for the
2009-10 weather scenario.

In the FY 2013-14 weather scenario, Electrical Energy Requirement is projected to increase at an average annual
rate of 4.83% from 1131.7 BU in 2016-17 to reach 2907.8 BU in 2036-37. As compared to the average Electrical
Energy Requirement forecast obtained under the baseline GDP scenario (which is the average of the forecast
demand under all 14 scenarios), electricity demand is about 2.3% lower in FY 2036-37 for the 2013-14 weather
scenario.
Figure 5.9 Annual Electrical Energy Requirement under 14 past weather scenarios

Annexures
Annexure 1
Long panel estimation
First, the fixed effect panel model is estimated using ordinary least squares regression. The error terms obtained
from this estimation were analysed to identify the relationship exhibited by error terms for a given state in
different time periods. The objective was to identify the dependence of an error term in time period `t’, if any, on
the error terms of previous periods.
Second, the strength of correlation in errors at various lags is studied using the autocorrelation function (ACF)
plot. The ACF plot is a visual way to see serial correlation in time-series data. ACF gives a summary of
correlation at different periods of time. The plot shows the correlation coefficient for the series lagged by one
delay at a time. From the ACF plot, it was observed that the error terms exhibit serial correlation for AR (1). This
implies that the error term in time period `t’ is dependent on the error term of the previous period. As expected,
error terms were also dependent on lags of 12 (error of the same month in the previous year) as electricity demand
is bound to have a high degree of seasonality.
The estimation technique called Prais-Winsten regression is used to account for serial correlation in errors within
each state. It allows for state-specific AR (1) model for the error over as
u it = ρ i u i (t −1) + ε it ,
where are serially uncorrelated and is coefficient of autocorrelation for state . It applies a Cochrane -
-Orcutt transformation for all observation (except the first observation 10) in a way to eliminate the serial correlation
in the error term uit so that we can work with serially uncorrelated error in the model:
𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 − 𝜌𝜌 𝑈𝑈𝑖𝑖(𝑡𝑡−1) = 𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖
Applying this transformation to all variables, we obtain the final equation for the model for each state:
Where Eit is the electricity demand of state `I’ in time period `t’, represents all the independent variables other
than the constant term (such as GDP, electricity prices, rainfall etc.), is the vector of parameters and α is a
state-specific constant.
Panel data typically displays both contemporaneous correlation across states and state-level heteroskedastic. This
10
For the first observation, it makes a transformation in the following way:

results in incorrect inferences from standard errors produced by Ordinary Least Squares. Panel Corrected Standard
Error (PCSE) are used in the current study to account for these deviations from spherical errors and allowing for
better inferences from linear models estimated from panel data.
Partial adjustment model

The theoretical specification of the model is inspired by the paper ‘A partial adjustment model of US electricity
demand by region, season and sector’ by Anthony Paul, Erica Myers and Karen Palmer.
The equilibrium energy demand of the economy that is expected to prevail in the long-run has been modelled by
Q*. At any point of time, the actual electricity demand prevailing in the economy is denoted as Qt. The actual
consumption varies from the desired consumption levels as the capital stock is not at the long-run equilibrium
levels. In every time period, consumers try to reduce a part of the gap between their actual consumption and the
long-run equilibrium level.
To model the equilibrium-desired level of electricity demand, we have assumed a Cobb Douglas relationship
between equilibrium energy demand Q* and its drivers (i.e. price, income and other covariates).
Consumers try to bring their actual level of consumption in line with the equilibrium level. However, they are only
partially successful in every period to close this gap.
As capital is not immediately mobile, we use habitual parameters to model energy demand behaviour — that
capture the constrained capacity of consumers to immediately adjust to the long-run equilibrium level of
consumption in response to a change in price, rainfall, weather or other factors.
This habitual response of consumers is captured through two parameters. The parameter θ1 captures the strength
of month-to-month behavioural inertia based on the monthly rate of capital turnover for equipment that is
operated in all months (e.g. refrigerators). The parameter θ12 captures the strength of year-on-year behavioural
inertia based on the rate of capital turnover that has a seasonal usage pattern (e.g. air conditioners).
These parameters take a value between 0 and 1, according to which 0 reflects a situation whereby consumers
are completely unable to adjust their energy consumption towards the long-run equilibrium level and 1 reflects
a situation whereby the capital stock can adjust immediately and no behavioural inertia exists. In reality, we
expect a value between 0 and 1 to give a true picture of reality.
Using the above two models, the final specification of the model is specified as:

` Annexure 2
Details of the data used
1. State GDP
The GDP data is used for every state on an annual level from FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16. The complete data has
been sourced from the Central Statistical Office (CSO), MOSPI. The GDP data between FY 2002-03 and FY 2016
was not at the same base year. The base years corresponding to the data obtained from MOSPI were as
follows:
• FY 2002-03 and 2004: Base year was FY 2000

• FY 2005-FY 2011: Base year was FY 2005
• FY 2012-FY2016: Base year was FY 2012
To bring all the data on the same base year, the GDP values for all years were converted to the base year of FY
2012 as on 01.01.2018.
GDP (Factor) at base price (FY 2011-12)

FY GDP (in Crores) FY GDP (in Crores) FY GDP (in Crores)
2000 3433272 2006 5025695 2012 8106946
2001 3582737 2007 5506611 2013 8546275
2002 3790873 2008 6019940 2014 9063649
2003 3936311 2009 6424768 2015 9712133
2004 4271604 2010 6976910 2016 10503348
2005 4590636 2011 7598676 2017 11247629
Assumptions made for obtaining future GDP

For forecasting the GDP data, several assumptions were made both at the all-India and state level.
a) The all-India growth rate for FY 2016-17 was taken as 7.1% based on actual data from MOSPI. Similarly,
the all-India growth rate for FY 2017-18 was taken as 6.6% based on the provisional estimate of GDP
from the MOSPI. For subsequent years, different rate of growth for GDP has been assumed for different
scenarios.
b) After FY 2017-18, the growth pattern of all-India GDP is assumed to change according to three possible
scenarios — baseline or BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenario. The BAU case assumes that GDP at
the all-India level will continue to increase at about 7.3% CAGR obtained during FY 2000-01 and FY
2017-18, and there will be no significant deviations from these past trends. The growth rate is varied
over time but the CAGR of 7.3% is achieved during FY2018-19 and FY 2036-37. The growth rate is
assumed to rise for the next five years until FY 2022-23 and then allowed to taper from FY 2023-24
according to the following:

Year 201 201 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 202 202 202 202 202 202 203 FY
7 8 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 2031
-FY
2037
GDP 7.1 6.6 7.5 7.8 8 8 8 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7
Baseline
growth
(%)
In the pessimistic growth scenario, the all-India GDP is assumed to grow at 6.5% for all future years from FY
2018-19 to FY 2036-37. In the optimistic growth scenario, the all-India GDP is assumed to grow at 8% for all
future years from FY 2018-19 to FY 2036-37.
c) After obtaining all-India GDP, it is allocated at the state level. First, the future GDP share of all states was
forecast till FY 2025-26. This was done using a regression framework. The dependent variable used was
the existing state GDP shares from FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16. The only independent variable used was
time. The state-wise GDP forecasts were obtained by multiplying the state shares obtained from the
above regression with the values of all-India GDP. State-wise GDP obtained is normalised, so that it
totals to All-India GDP.
d) After FY 2025-26, states are assumed to grow at the rate of FY 2025-2026 till FY 2036-37. Under this
approach, all-India GDP (sum of state-wise forecasts) and state-wise shares in all-India GDP are obtained
for all future years. These state-wise shares are then used to allocate all-India GDP forecasts obtained
under different scenarios to different states. This ensures that the sum of state-wise GDP forecasts sum
to the all-India GDP forecasts obtained under different scenarios in every future year.
2. Population
The population statistics for every state for FY 2000-01 and FY 2010-11 are obtained from the census data.
For every state, we have used the population data for FY 2000-01 and FY 2010-11 to construct the population
statistics from FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16. This is done using a two-step procedure — in the first step, the
state-wise population CAGR was calculated from 2000-01 to 2010-11; in the second step, the calculated
CAGR was used to fit a population trend for all states till FY 2015-16.
Assumptions for forecasting

For forecasting the population data, several assumptions were made for the all-India and state levels as follows:
a. The all-India population data for FY 2020-21, FY 2030-31 and FY 2040-41 was obtained from the UNDP
website.
b. This data was used to calculate the all-India population CAGR between 2010-11 and 2020-21. This CAGR
was applied to compute the all-India population figures for FY 2016-17, FY 2017-18, FY 2018-19 and FY
2019-20.
c. The following steps were performed to estimate the state-wise population figures for FY 2020-21:

• The state-wise population growth rate and all-India population growth rate were calculated
between FY 2000-01 and FY 2010-11. The relationship between the two growth rates (state-level
and all-India) was established by taking the ratio of the state growth rate to all-India growth rate.
For example, the population growth at the all-India level was 17.64% between FY 2000-01 and FY
2010-11. During the same period, population growth for Maharashtra was 15.99%. Thus, the ratio
of the two growth rates (15.99/17.64) measures the degree to which the state-wise population
growth rate is higher than (if the ratio is greater than one), lower than (if the ratio is more than one)
or equal to (if ratio is equal to one) the all-India population growth rate.
• Using the all-India population figures between FY 2011 (census) and FY 2021 (UNDP), the all-India
population growth rate was computed as 15.47% between FY 2011 and FY 2021. The all-India
population for FY 2021 is then allocated to different states assuming that the same population
growth rate relationship between a given state and national estimates for FY 2000-01-FY 2010-11
(as observed in Step1) will continue in the future between FY 2010-11 and FY 2020-21. For example,
in case of Maharashtra the growth rate of population of 14.02% during FY 2011 and FY 2021 was
obtained by multiplying 15.47% all-India growth rate by the past ratio of population growth rate of
Maharashtra to all-India growth rate (15.47*15.99/17.64). This process is repeated for all other
states and state-level population estimates are obtained for FY 2021. Under this approach, the all-
India population (sum of individual state-wise forecasts) will be close to the UNDP forecasts but not
exactly same. Thus, state-wise shares in the all-India population (as obtained by the sum of
individual state-wise forecasts) are obtained for FY 2021. These state-wise shares are then used to
allocate all-India population forecasts obtained from the UNDP to different states for FY 2021. This
ensures that the sum of state-wise population forecasts sum to the all-India population forecasts
obtained from the UNDP.
d. Given the state population values of 2010-11(census) and 2020-21(computed), the state-wise population
CAGR is computed for FY 2010-11–FY2020-21. This CAGR is applied to estimate the state-wise population
values for FY 2011-12–FY 2019-20. The same process has been repeated for population figures for FY 2021-
FY 2031 and FY 2031-FY 2041.
3. Price
Price data is obtained at the annual level for every state for the period FY 2002-03–FY 2015-16. The complete
data on prices is obtained from the report on ‘Electricity Tariff & Duty and Average rates of electricity supply
in India’ published by the Central Electricity Authority, Government of India. Furthermore, the consumer price
index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) is used to adjust the nominal prices for inflation. The complete CPI data
is obtained from the Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour and Employment.
The CPI-IW (CPI for industrial workers) figures were used as these figures are available state-wise for the
period of analysis. The entire CPI-IW data was available on two base years — the base year for CPI-IW data
after January 2006 is FY 2001 and the base year for CPI-IW data from January 2003 to December 2005 is FY
1983. The data was used after transforming the data on a common base year. For the purpose of our analysis,

the CPI-IW data for 2003 and 2004 on the base year FY 1983 was converted to the base year FY 2001. In
order to do this conversion, the conversion rates specified by the Labour Bureau
(http://labourbureaunew.gov.in/LBO_LinkingFactors.htm) were used.
The electricity price tariff for every state is available for five categories — domestic, agriculture, commercial,
small industries, medium industries and large industries. Within each category, electricity tariffs are further
divided according to multiple sub-categories. A price variable was constructed to obtain an average annual
price for every state across different consumer categories. The construction of this price variable was
implemented using a two-step averaging process:
a) Under each category of Domestic, Agriculture, Commercial, Small Industries, Medium Industries and Large
Industries, electricity tariffs are further divided according to multiple sub-categories according to the amount
of consumption. A simple average was taken across all subcategories to obtain a representative figure of that
category.
b) A weighted average value was taken to combine the six categories of Agriculture, Commercial, Small
Industries, Medium Industries and Large Industries to obtain a single electricity price value for every state.
The weights were used according to the respective shares of Agriculture, Commercial, Industry (Small,
Medium and Large) in the overall state electricity consumption.
c) The obtained value for nominal price was converted to real price (adjustment for inflation) through division
by the state-wise CPI-IW.

For forecasting the price values, the state-wise real price value for FY 2016 was assumed to continue for
all years from FY 2016-17 to FY 2036.
4. Rainfall
Rainfall data is obtained state-wise for every month from FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16. The source of the
complete data is https://en.tutiempo.net/climate/india.html.
Two primary assumptions have been made to account for the missing values of rainfall in the data set
obtained. When less than 15 days in the month are missing, the rainfall value of the previous day available
was used. For missing values in a month of more than 15 days, the rainfall values for the same month in the
previous year were used. This is because rainfall is assumed to follow a similar trend for a given month over
time.

For forecasting the value of rainfall, the 14 available weather scenarios for the past years were used (FY
2002-03–FY 2015-16).
5. Cooling degree days (CDD) and heating degree days (HDD)

Temperature data is obtained state-wise for every month from FY 2002-03 to FY 2015-16. Data was taken
for 75 Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) stations nationally for which temperature data was available
for the period FY 2002-03– FY 2015-16. The complete list of stations used for the weather data has been
specified state-wise in the table below. The source of the complete data is
https://en.tutiempo.net/climate/india.html.
The variables used for HDD and CDD were computed based on the deviation of threshold value of 21
degree Celsius. Details of computation are explained in Chapter 3 on ‘Historical Trends of Data’.
State Station
Andaman and Nicobar Port Blair
Andhra Pradesh Cwc Vishakhapatnam
Andhra Pradesh Kurnool
Andhra Pradesh Machilipatnam
Andhra Pradesh Nellore
Andhra Pradesh Pbo Anantapur
Assam Dibrugarh / Mohanbari
Assam Guwahati
Assam Tezpur
Bihar Bhagalpur
Bihar Gaya
Bihar Patna
Chhattishgarh Jagdalpur
Chhattisgarh Pbo Raipur
Chhattisgarh Pendra Road
Delhi New Delhi / Palam
Delhi New Delhi / Safdarjung
Goa Goa/Panjim
Gujarat Ahmadabad
Gujarat Bhuj-Rudramata
Gujarat Rajkot
Gujarat Surat
Gujarat Veraval
Haryana Hissar
Jammu and Kashmir Srinagar

State Station
Jharkhand Jamshedpur
Jharkhand M. O. Ranchi
Karnataka Bangalore
Karnataka Belgaum / Sambra
Karnataka Chitradurga
Karnataka Gadag
Karnataka Mangalore / Bajpe
Kerala Cochin / Willingdon
Kerala Kozhikode
Kerala Thiruvananthapuram
Kerala Thiruvananthapuram
Lakshadweep Minicoy
Madhya Pradesh Bhopal / Bairagarh
Madhya Pradesh Guna
Madhya Pradesh Gwalior
Madhya Pradesh Indore
Madhya Pradesh Jabalpur
Madhya Pradesh Satna
Maharashtra Aurangabad Chikalthan Aerodrome
Maharashtra Bombay / Santacruz
Maharashtra Nagpur Sonegaon
Maharashtra Poona
Maharashtra Ratnagiri
Maharashtra Sholapur
Manipur Imphal Tulihal
Odisha Balasore
Odisha Bhubaneswar
Odisha Jharsuguda
Punjab Amritsar
Punjab Patiala
Rajasthan Barmer
Rajasthan Bikaner
Rajasthan Ganganagar
Rajasthan Jaipur / Sanganer
Rajasthan Jaisalmer
Rajasthan Jodhpur
Rajasthan Kota Aerodrome
Tamil Nadu Coimbatore / Peelamedu
Tamil Nadu Cuddalore

State Station
Tamil Nadu Madras / Minambakkam
Tamil Nadu Tiruchchirapalli
Telangana Hyderabad Airport
Telangana Ramgundam
Tripura Agartala
Uttar Pradesh Agra
Uttar Pradesh Bareilly
Uttar Pradesh Gorakhpur
Uttar Pradesh Lucknow / Amausi
Uttarakhand Dehradun
West Bengal Calcutta / Dum Dum
For forecasting the temperature variables, the 14 available weather scenarios for the past years were used
(FY 2002-03–FY 2015-16).
6. Structural breaks
Dummy variables were constructed to allow for structural breaks between defined periods: FY 2003–FY 2005;
FY 2006–FY2009; FY 2010 to FY 2014 and FY 2015–FY2017.
In the model, an interaction of the structural break dummy variable was introduced with the state. Therefore,
for every state, the dummy allows for a level difference in the electricity demand (through a different
intercept) across each of the specified structural time periods. This is done by capturing state-specific factors
that influence electricity demand but are unobservable to the modeller.
For forecasting this variable, it was assumed that the future structural change will follow the structural
change value for FY 2015-16.

Annexure 3: (Coefficient Results)
Table A3.1: PAM Electricity Demand Models [2003-2016]
=====================================================================================================
All India North East West Northeast South
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
log(Elec_Demand_lag_1) 0.61 *** 0.42 *** 0.62 *** 0.68 *** 0.64 *** 0.61 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03)
log(Elec_Demand_lag_12) 0.08 *** 0.16 *** 0.16 *** 0.05 0.05 0.07 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02)
log(GDP_lag_12) 0.23 *** 0.31 *** 0.20 *** 0.13 *** 0.24 *** 0.21 ***
(0.01) (0.03) (0.04) (0.03) (0.04) (0.03)
log(EP_Adjust_CPI) -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.07 0.02 -0.12 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.03) (0.04) (0.03) (0.03)
CDD_Avg_Temp 0.06 *** 0.07 *** 0.03 ** 0.07 *** 0.02 0.07 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01)
HDD_Avg_Temp 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.01
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02)
Rain_1 (0-50mm): Rainfall -0.06 *** -0.13 *** -0.02 -0.08 * 0.00 -0.04 *
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.04) (0.02)
Rain_2 (50-100mm): Rainfall -0.04 *** -0.07 *** -0.01 -0.07 *** 0.01 -0.04 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01)
Rain_3 (100-200mm): Rainfall -0.03 *** -0.05 *** -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 ***
(0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00)
Rain_4 (>200mm): Rainfall -0.02 *** -0.04 *** -0.01 -0.02 *** -0.01 -0.03 ***
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
R^2 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.93 0.91 0.98
Adj. R^2 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.92 0.90 0.97
Num. obs. 4368 1248 624 780 936 780
=====================================================================================================
*** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05

Table A3.2: Long Panel Electricity Demand Models [2003-2016] (for Energy Requirement)
================================================================================================================
All India North East West Northeast South
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Intercept) -1.10 * -1.91 *** -4.11 *** 2.02 * -3.46 *** 1.01
(0.44) (0.48) (0.89) (1.01) (0.75) (0.70)
log(GDP_lag_12) 0.74 *** 0.79 *** 0.92 *** 0.49 *** 0.71 *** 0.66 ***
(0.03) (0.04) (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.03)
log(EP_Adjust_CPI) 0.00 -0.15 ** -0.04 -0.10 0.17 *** -0.18 **
(0.03) (0.05) (0.07) (0.07) (0.04) (0.06)
Rainfall -0.09 *** -0.11 *** -0.02 -0.14 *** -0.03 -0.08 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.04) (0.02)
CDD_Avg_Temp 0.07 *** 0.09 *** 0.04 *** 0.08 *** 0.01 0.09 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01)
HDD_Avg_Temp 0.01 0.01 0.01 -0.01
(0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02)
Rain_2 (50-100mm): Rainfall 0.03 0.04 -0.04 0.16 ** 0.01 0.02
(0.02) (0.03) (0.05) (0.06) (0.11) (0.03)
Rain_3 (100-200mm): Rainfall 0.08 *** 0.09 *** 0.02 0.16 *** 0.08 0.04 *
(0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.04) (0.05) (0.02)
Rain_4 (> 200mm): Rainfall 0.08 *** 0.09 *** 0.01 0.14 *** 0.02 0.07 ***
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.04) (0.02)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
R^2 .99 .99 .99 .99 0.99 .99
Wald 667904.10 221958.96 25684.15 33486.29 19535.28 152987.79
Pchisq 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Num obs. 4368 1248 624 780 936 780
================================================================================================================
*** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05

Table A3.3: SUR Electricity Demand Models [2003-2016] (for Energy Requirement)
=========================================================================================
North East West North-East South
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
eqDL: (Intercept) 5.00 ***
(0.49)
eqDL: log(GDP_DL) 0.20 ***
(0.04)
eqDL: Rainfall_DL -0.02
(0.01)
eqDL: CDD_Avg_Temp_DL 0.05 **
(0.02)
eqDL: HDD_Avg_Temp_DL -0.00
(0.02)
eqDL: Time_Zone_2 0.02
(0.02)
eqDL: Time_Zone_3 0.09 **
(0.03)
eqDL: Time_Zone_4 0.16 ***
(0.04)
eqHR: (Intercept) -2.77 ***
(0.55)
eqHR: log(GDP_HR) 0.86 ***
(0.05)
eqHR: Rainfall_HR -0.07 ***
(0.01)
eqHR: CDD_Avg_Temp_HR 0.04 **
(0.01)
eqHR: HDD_Avg_Temp_HR -0.00
(0.02)
eqPB: (Intercept) 0.83
(0.75)
eqPB: log(GDP_PB) 0.71 ***
(0.06)
eqPB: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_PB) -0.25 ***
(0.05)
eqPB: Rainfall_PB -0.07 ***
(0.02)
eqPB: CDD_Avg_Temp_PB 0.09 ***
(0.02)
eqPB: HDD_Avg_Temp_PB -0.02
(0.03)
eqRJ: (Intercept) -2.09 ***
(0.59)
eqRJ: log(GDP_RJ) 0.81 ***
(0.05)
eqRJ: Rainfall_RJ -0.13 ***
(0.02)
eqRJ: CDD_Avg_Temp_RJ 0.08 ***
(0.02)
eqRJ: HDD_Avg_Temp_RJ 0.03
(0.03)
eqUK: (Intercept) -3.97 ***
(0.27)
eqUK: log(GDP_UK) 0.93 ***
(0.02)
eqUK: Rainfall_UK -0.03 ***
(0.01)
eqUK: CDD_Avg_Temp_UK -0.00
(0.02)
eqUK: HDD_Avg_Temp_UK 0.01
(0.02)
eqUP: (Intercept) -4.46 ***
(0.66)
eqUP: log(GDP_UP) 0.99 ***
(0.05)
eqUP: Rainfall_UP -0.03 ***
(0.01)
eqUP: CDD_Avg_Temp_UP 0.08 ***

(0.02)
eqJK: (Intercept) -0.59
(1.50)
eqJK: log(GDP_JK) 0.87 ***
(0.11)
eqJK: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_JK) -0.38 ***
(0.10)
eqJK: Rainfall_JK -0.01
(0.01)
eqJK: CDD_Avg_Temp_JK 0.14 *
(0.06)
eqJK: HDD_Avg_Temp_JK 0.02
(0.02)
eqCH: (Intercept) 0.62
(1.71)
eqCH: log(GDP_CH) 0.40 ***
(0.08)
eqCH: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_CH) 0.00
(0.16)
eqCH: Rainfall_CH -0.03 *
(0.01)
eqCH: CDD_Avg_Temp_CH 0.10 ***
(0.02)
eqCH: HDD_Avg_Temp_CH 0.05 *
(0.02)
eqBR: (Intercept) -1.74
(1.20)
eqBR: log(GDP_BR) 1.00 ***
(0.06)
eqBR: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_BR) -0.60 ***
(0.16)
eqBR: Rainfall_BR 0.01
(0.01)
eqBR: CDD_Avg_Temp_BR 0.05
(0.03)
eqBR: HDD_Avg_Temp_BR 0.03
(0.04)
eqWB: (Intercept) -8.74 ***
(0.55)
eqWB: log(GDP_WB) 1.29 ***
(0.04)
eqWB: Rainfall_WB 0.00
(0.01)
eqWB: CDD_Avg_Temp_WB 0.05 ***
(0.01)
eqWB: HDD_Avg_Temp_WB 0.01
(0.03)
eqOR: (Intercept) -0.73
(0.75)
eqOR: log(GDP_OR) 0.75 ***
(0.05)
eqOR: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_OR) -0.15 **
(0.05)
eqOR: Rainfall_OR -0.02 **
(0.01)
eqOR: CDD_Avg_Temp_OR -0.02
(0.02)
eqOR: HDD_Avg_Temp_OR 0.00
(0.07)
eqJH: (Intercept) 9.41 ***
(1.82)
eqJH: log(GDP_JH) 0.18
(0.11)
eqJH: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_JH) -0.75 ***
(0.10)
eqJH: Rainfall_JH -0.01
(0.01)
eqJH: CDD_Avg_Temp_JH -0.02
(0.03)
eqJH: HDD_Avg_Temp_JH -0.03
(0.05)

eqGJ: (Intercept) 5.76 ***
(1.45)
eqGJ: log(Per_Capita_GJ) 0.44 ***
(0.09)
eqGJ: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_GJ) -0.30 ***
(0.09)
eqGJ: Rainfall_GJ -0.05 ***
(0.01)
eqGJ: CDD_Avg_Temp_GJ 0.08 *
(0.04)
eqMH: (Intercept) 3.67 ***
(0.69)
eqMH: log(Per_Capita_MH) 0.55 ***
(0.06)
eqMH: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_MH) -0.12
(0.07)
eqMH: Rainfall_MH -0.03 **
(0.01)
eqMH: CDD_Avg_Temp_MH 0.14 ***
(0.03)
eqCG: (Intercept) -3.99 ***
(1.11)
eqCG: log(Per_Capita_CG) 1.02 ***
(0.11)
eqCG: Rainfall_CG -0.01
(0.02)
eqCG: CDD_Avg_Temp_CG 0.05
(0.04)
eqMP: (Intercept) -0.34
(0.98)
eqMP: log(Per_Capita_MP) 0.83 ***
(0.10)
eqMP: Rainfall_MP -0.00
(0.01)
eqMP: CDD_Avg_Temp_MP 0.16 ***
(0.03)
eqGA: (Intercept) 9.49 ***
(1.69)
eqGA: log(GDP_GA) 0.12
(0.10)
eqGA: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_GA) -0.89 ***
(0.12)
eqGA: Rainfall_GA 0.00
(0.01)
eqGA: CDD_Avg_Temp_GA 0.14 *
(0.07)
eqAS: (Intercept) -21.46 ***
(1.33)
eqAS: log(Per_Capita_AS) 2.61 ***
(0.13)
eqAS: Rainfall_AS 0.00
(0.01)
eqAS: CDD_Avg_Temp_AS 0.12 ***
(0.03)
eqAS: HDD_Avg_Temp_AS 0.08
(0.04)
eqMN: (Intercept) -5.98 ***
(0.97)
eqMN: log(Per_Capita_MN) 0.94 ***
(0.09)
eqMN: Rainfall_MN 0.03
(0.02)
eqMN: CDD_Avg_Temp_MN -0.05
(0.08)
eqMN: HDD_Avg_Temp_MN -0.03
(0.06)
eqTR: (Intercept) -5.00 ***
(0.78)
eqTR: log(Per_Capita_TR) 0.86 ***
(0.08)
eqTR: Rainfall_TR -0.02

(0.01)
eqTR: CDD_Avg_Temp_TR 0.06
(0.04)
eqTR: HDD_Avg_Temp_TR 0.17 ***
(0.05)
eqNL: (Intercept) -2.40
(1.23)
eqNL: log(Per_Capita_NL) 0.55 ***
(0.12)
eqNL: Rainfall_NL -0.03
(0.02)
eqNL: CDD_Avg_Temp_NL 0.09
(0.07)
eqNL: HDD_Avg_Temp_NL -0.04
(0.06)
eqML: (Intercept) -8.03 ***
(1.53)
eqML: log(Per_Capita_ML) 1.20 ***
(0.14)
eqML: Rainfall_ML -0.01
(0.01)
eqML: CDD_Avg_Temp_ML -0.02
(0.06)
eqML: HDD_Avg_Temp_ML -0.10
(0.08)
eqMZ: (Intercept) -4.35 ***
(0.47)
eqMZ: log(GDP_MZ) 0.92 ***
(0.06)
eqMZ: Rainfall_MZ -0.01
(0.01)
eqKA: (Intercept) 4.91 ***
(0.94)
eqKA: log(Per_Capita_KA) 0.64 ***
(0.06)
eqKA: Rainfall_KA -0.04 ***
(0.01)
eqKA: CDD_Avg_Temp_KA 0.04
(0.03)
eqKA: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_KA) -0.61 ***
(0.06)
eqTN: (Intercept) -2.09 *
(1.03)
eqTN: log(Per_Capita_TN) 0.99 ***
(0.05)
eqTN: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_TN) -0.07
(0.10)
eqTN: Rainfall_TN -0.03 **
(0.01)
eqTN: CDD_Avg_Temp_TN 0.10 **
(0.03)
eqKL: (Intercept) -1.17
(0.87)
eqKL: log(Per_Capita_KL) 0.91 ***
(0.05)
eqKL: Rainfall_KL -0.01 ***
(0.00)
eqKL: CDD_Avg_Temp_KL 0.10 ***
(0.02)
eqKL: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_KL) -0.29 ***
(0.07)
eqAP: (Intercept) -2.25 ***
(0.52)
eqAP: log(Per_Capita_AP) 0.99 ***
(0.05)
eqAP: Rainfall_AP -0.06 ***
(0.01)
eqAP: CDD_Avg_Temp_AP 0.04
(0.02)
eqPY: (Intercept) -0.86
(1.40)

eqPY: log(Per_Capita_PY) 0.68 ***
(0.10)
eqPY: CDD_Avg_Temp_PY 0.13 *
(0.05)
eqPY: Rainfall_PY -0.01
(0.02)
eqPY: log(EP_Adjust_CPI_PY) -0.38 ***
(0.09)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
eqDL: Adj. R^2 0.94
eqHR: Adj. R^2 0.96
eqPB: Adj. R^2 0.95
eqRJ: Adj. R^2 0.96
eqUK: Adj. R^2 0.99
eqUP: Adj. R^2 0.97
eqJK: Adj. R^2 0.91
eqCH: Adj. R^2 0.94
eqBR: Adj. R^2 0.96
eqWB: Adj. R^2 0.98
eqOR: Adj. R^2 0.95
eqJH: Adj. R^2 0.94
eqGJ: Adj. R^2 0.86
eqMH: Adj. R^2 0.87
eqCG: Adj. R^2 0.83
eqMP: Adj. R^2 0.90
eqGA: Adj. R^2 0.83
eqAS: Adj. R^2 0.96
eqMN: Adj. R^2 0.56
eqTR: Adj. R^2 0.88
eqNL: Adj. R^2 0.81
eqML: Adj. R^2 0.79
eqMZ: Adj. R^2 0.92
eqKA: Adj. R^2 0.95
eqTN: Adj. R^2 0.97
eqKL: Adj. R^2 0.97
eqAP: Adj. R^2 0.96
eqPY: Adj. R^2 0.85
Num. obs. (total) 1344 672 840 1008 840
=========================================================================================
*** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05

Table A3.4: PAM Peak Electricity Demand Models [2003-2016]
========================================================================================
North East West Northeast South
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
log(Elec_Demand_lag_1) 0.51 *** 0.60 *** 0.61 *** 0.62 *** 0.55 ***
(0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03)
log(Elec_Demand_lag_12) 0.19 *** 0.21 *** 0.09 ** 0.05 0.09 **
(0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03)
log(GDP_lag_12) 0.20 *** 0.17 *** 0.09 ** 0.20 *** 0.21 ***
(0.03) (0.04) (0.03) (0.04) (0.03)
log(EP_Adjust_CPI) -0.04 -0.01 -0.08 * 0.01 -0.12 ***
(0.02) (0.04) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03)
CDD_Avg_Temp 0.04 *** 0.00 0.05 *** 0.04 * 0.05 ***
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01)
HDD_Avg_Temp 0.00 -0.02 0.05 *
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02)
Time_Zone_Rain_1:Rainfall -0.04 0.04 -0.07 * 0.01 -0.03
(0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.04) (0.02)
Time_Zone_Rain_2:Rainfall -0.02 * 0.00 -0.04 * -0.00 -0.01
(0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01)
Time_Zone_Rain_3:Rainfall -0.01 * 0.02 -0.01 -0.00 -0.02 **
(0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
Time_Zone_Rain_4:Rainfall -0.02 *** 0.00 -0.01 *** 0.01 * -0.01 ***
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
R^2 0.96 0.97 0.92 0.84 0.96
Adj. R^2 0.95 0.96 0.92 0.82 0.96
Num. obs. 1248 624 780 936 780
*** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05

Table A3.5: PAM All-India Peak Electricity Demand Model [2003-2016]
============================================
All India
--------------------------------------------
(Intercept) 0.48 ***
(0.11)
log(Peak_Demand_lag_1) 0.62 ***
(0.06)
log(GDP) 0.25 ***
(0.04)
HDD_Avg_Temp 0.04
(0.02)
CDD_Avg_Temp 0.04 **
(0.01)
Rain_1:Rainfall -0.04
(0.02)
Rain_2:Rainfall -0.05 **
(0.01)
Rain_3:Rainfall -0.05 ***
(0.01)
Rain_4:Rainfall -0.04 ***
(0.01)
--------------------------------------------
R^2 0.99
Adj. R^2 0.99
Num. obs. 167
RMSE 0.02
============================================

Annexure 4 (State Shares of electricity
consumption)
Figure A4.1: Share of Commercial Electricity Consumption

Figure A4.2: Share of Domestic Electricity Consumption

Figure A4.3: Share of Agricultural Electricity Consumption

Figure A4.4: Share of Industrial Electricity Consumption

Annexure 5 (Electricity Demand Forecasts
and Growth rates)
Table A5.1: Growth Rates of GDP and Population
Year GDP Base (%) GDP Pessimistic (%) GDP Optimistic (%) Population (%)
2017 7.1 7.1 7.1 1.44
2018 6.6 6.6 6.6 1.45
2019 7.5 6.5 8 1.45
2020 7.8 6.5 8 1.45
2021 8 6.5 8 1.45
2022 8 6.5 8 0.87
2023 8 6.5 8 0.87
2024 7.8 6.5 8 0.87
2025 7.6 6.5 8 0.87
2026 7.5 6.5 8 0.87
2027 7.4 6.5 8 0.87
2028 7.3 6.5 8 0.87
2029 7.2 6.5 8 0.87
2030 7.1 6.5 8 0.87
2031 7 6.5 8 0.87
2032 7 6.5 8 0.56
2033 7 6.5 8 0.56
2034 7 6.5 8 0.56
2035 7 6.5 8 0.56
2036 7 6.5 8 0.56
2037 7 6.5 8 0.56

Table A5.2: Forecasted Electrical Energy Requirement (PAM Baseline Scenario) in MUs
State/Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delhi 31,588 33,625 35,584 37,730 40,080 42,640 45,382
Haryana 50,958 54,723 58,028 61,512 65,286 69,380 73,760
Himachal Pradesh 9,262 9,725 10,211 10,722 11,258 11,821 12,412
Jammu & Kashmir 17,810 18,297 18,819 19,444 20,140 20,890 21,671
Punjab 50,740 53,378 55,694 58,147 60,789 63,629 66,621
Rajasthan 71,560 76,544 80,883 85,475 90,456 95,859 101,629
Uttar Pradesh 110,295 115,211 119,878 125,056 130,728 136,859 143,331
Uttarakhand 13,452 14,883 16,094 17,338 18,673 20,122 21,682
Chandigarh 1,668 1,745 1,817 1,897 1,984 2,078 2,177
Northern Region 357,333 378,131 397,008 417,321 439,394 463,278 488,665
Goa 5,040 5,197 5,352 5,528 5,722 5,931 6,149
Gujarat 102,981 105,580 109,367 113,876 118,850 124,191 129,809
Chhattisgarh 25,714 26,533 27,400 28,381 29,457 30,612 31,823
Madhya Pradesh 61,601 63,736 65,867 68,204 70,741 73,454 76,296
Maharashtra 143,165 148,033 153,106 158,671 164,713 171,179 177,957
D. & N. Haveli 6,221 6,532 6,859 7,202 7,562 7,940 8,337
Daman & Diu 2,454 2,577 2,706 2,841 2,983 3,132 3,289
Western Region 347,176 358,188 370,657 384,703 400,028 416,439 433,660
Andhra Pradesh 52,501 55,418 57,999 60,781 63,816 67,099 70,579
Telangana 52,756 55,688 58,281 61,077 64,127 67,426 70,923
Karnataka 67,154 69,770 72,601 75,873 79,496 83,424 87,584
Kerala 23,929 25,008 25,991 27,061 28,226 29,481 30,802
Tamil Nadu 101,157 107,197 112,772 118,782 125,321 132,399 139,927
Puducherry 2,509 2,689 2,828 2,966 3,113 3,271 3,438
Southern Region 300,006 315,770 330,472 346,540 364,099 383,100 403,253
Bihar 26,326 29,193 31,758 34,334 37,051 39,984 43,151
Jharkhand 14,675 15,564 16,503 17,552 18,720 20,011 21,416
Odisha 28,086 29,804 31,522 33,412 35,495 37,778 40,245
West Bengal 62,728 69,635 75,274 80,519 85,762 91,222 96,962
Sikkim 419 440 462 485 509 534 561
Eastern Region 132,234 144,636 155,519 166,302 177,537 189,529 202,335
Assam 9,282 9,453 9,706 10,040 10,419 10,827 11,249
Manipur 867 864 881 907 938 970 1,003
Meghalaya 1,854 2,041 2,157 2,266 2,382 2,506 2,638
Nagaland 776 833 879 928 981 1,039 1,101
Tripura 1,394 1,434 1,508 1,601 1,707 1,824 1,949
Arunachal Pradesh 656 689 723 759 797 837 879
Mizoram 531 549 582 623 671 724 781
North Eastern 15,360 15,863 16,436 17,124 17,895 18,727 19,600
Region
Andaman & 284 298 313 329 345 362 380
Nicobar Islands
Lakshadweep 50 53 56 59 62 65 68
All-India 1,152,443 1,212,939 1,270,461 1,332,378 1,399,360 1,471,500 1,547,961

State/Region 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Delhi 48,306 51,371 54,561 57,898 61,390 65,043 68,860
Haryana 78,425 83,308 88,385 93,688 99,230 105,020 111,061
Himachal 13,033 13,685 14,369 15,087 15,841 16,633 17,465
Pradesh
Jammu & 22,472 23,269 24,050 24,821 25,591 26,362 27,135
Kashmir
Punjab 69,752 72,953 76,197 79,504 82,883 86,337 89,865
Rajasthan 107,761 114,161 120,792 127,699 134,894 142,385 150,175
Uttar Pradesh 150,110 157,049 164,084 171,260 178,600 186,107 193,779
Uttarakhand 23,354 25,122 26,980 28,940 31,014 33,210 35,533
Chandigarh 2,282 2,388 2,496 2,607 2,720 2,836 2,955
Northern 515,495 543,306 571,914 601,504 632,163 663,933 696,828
Region
Goa 6,375 6,606 6,840 7,077 7,319 7,566 7,816
Gujarat 135,682 141,720 147,891 154,229 160,751 167,461 174,361
Chhattisgarh 33,085 34,375 35,686 37,025 38,394 39,794 41,223
Madhya 79,254 82,275 85,338 88,464 91,655 94,913 98,235
Pradesh
Maharashtra 185,017 192,239 199,573 207,066 214,725 222,551 230,544
D. & N. Haveli 8,754 9,192 9,652 10,135 10,642 11,174 11,733
Daman & Diu 3,453 3,626 3,807 3,997 4,197 4,407 4,627
Western 451,620 470,033 488,787 507,993 527,683 547,866 568,539
Region
Andhra 74,248 78,040 81,931 85,950 90,104 94,394 98,818
Pradesh
Telangana 74,609 78,419 82,330 86,369 90,543 94,853 99,300
Karnataka 91,960 96,471 101,087 105,841 110,738 115,780 120,967
Kerala 32,183 33,594 35,024 36,483 37,976 39,502 41,062
Tamil Nadu 147,893 156,176 164,729 173,613 182,840 192,423 202,366
Puducherry 3,615 3,797 3,983 4,176 4,375 4,580 4,791
Southern 424,508 446,497 469,084 492,432 516,576 541,532 567,304
Region
Bihar 46,571 50,219 54,082 58,178 62,519 67,115 71,979
Jharkhand 22,932 24,542 26,234 28,013 29,884 31,848 33,908
Odisha 42,891 45,679 48,589 51,627 54,798 58,106 61,553
West Bengal 103,025 109,346 115,883 122,656 129,679 136,961 144,506
Sikkim 589 618 649 681 715 751 789
Eastern Region 216,008 230,404 245,437 261,155 277,595 294,781 312,735
Assam 11,683 12,112 12,532 12,945 13,359 13,774 14,191
Manipur 1,037 1,070 1,101 1,130 1,159 1,188 1,217
Meghalaya 2,777 2,919 3,065 3,214 3,368 3,527 3,690
Nagaland 1,166 1,234 1,304 1,377 1,453 1,532 1,613
Tripura 2,082 2,223 2,369 2,523 2,685 2,854 3,032
Arunachal 923 969 1,017 1,068 1,121 1,177 1,236
Pradesh
Mizoram 842 907 975 1,047 1,123 1,204 1,289

State/Region 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
North Eastern 20,510 21,434 22,363 23,304 24,268 25,256 26,268
Region
Andaman & 399 419 440 462 485 509 534
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadweep 71 75 79 83 87 91 96
All-India 1,628,611 1,712,168 1,798,104 1,886,933 1,978,857 2,073,968 2,172,304
State/Region 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Delhi 72,845 77,001 81,369 85,972 90,825 95,944 101,352
Haryana 117,359 123,919 130,806 138,055 145,691 153,734 162,221
Himachal 18,338 19,255 20,218 21,229 22,290 23,405 24,576
Pradesh
Jammu & 27,910 28,684 29,471 30,275 31,097 31,939 32,804
Kashmir
Punjab 93,464 97,133 100,915 104,829 108,883 113,083 117,445
Rajasthan 158,270 166,673 175,469 184,701 194,399 204,587 215,309
Uttar 201,611 209,598 217,836 226,362 235,198 244,356 253,871
Pradesh
Uttarakhand 37,989 40,584 43,343 46,282 49,415 52,756 56,323
Chandigarh 3,076 3,200 3,327 3,459 3,596 3,738 3,886
Northern 730,862 766,047 802,754 841,164 881,394 923,542 967,787
Region
Goa 8,071 8,330 8,595 8,868 9,149 9,438 9,736
Gujarat 181,452 188,734 196,269 204,087 212,203 220,629 229,390
Chhattisgarh 42,682 44,169 45,699 47,278 48,909 50,592 52,333
Madhya 101,621 105,070 108,615 112,270 116,041 119,931 123,951
Pradesh
Maharashtra 238,701 247,019 255,577 264,407 273,525 282,941 292,681
D. & N. 12,320 12,936 13,583 14,262 14,975 15,724 16,510
Haveli
Daman & 4,858 5,101 5,356 5,624 5,905 6,200 6,510
Diu
Western 589,705 611,359 633,694 656,796 680,707 705,455 731,111
Region
Andhra 103,379 108,074 112,954 118,040 123,344 128,877 134,658
Pradesh
Telangana 103,882 108,600 113,504 118,615 123,945 129,504 135,313
Karnataka 126,298 131,772 137,449 143,353 149,498 155,894 162,564
Kerala 42,653 44,275 45,946 47,676 49,466 51,319 53,241
Tamil Nadu 212,674 223,352 234,507 246,188 258,429 271,258 284,724
Puducherry 5,009 5,233 5,466 5,708 5,960 6,223 6,498
Southern 593,895 621,306 649,826 679,580 710,642 743,075 776,998
Region
Bihar 77,119 82,545 88,304 94,435 100,970 107,940 115,391

State/Region 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Jharkhand 36,065 38,323 40,700 43,210 45,865 48,676 51,659
Odisha 65,140 68,869 72,772 76,870 81,183 85,723 90,517
West Bengal 152,315 160,389 168,797 177,588 186,796 196,450 206,603
Sikkim 828 869 912 958 1,006 1,056 1,108
Eastern 331,467 350,995 371,485 393,061 415,820 439,845 465,278
Region
Assam 14,608 15,026 15,451 15,886 16,332 16,788 17,257
Manipur 1,245 1,273 1,301 1,329 1,358 1,388 1,419
Meghalaya 3,857 4,028 4,206 4,392 4,585 4,786 4,996
Nagaland 1,698 1,785 1,877 1,973 2,074 2,179 2,289
Tripura 3,218 3,413 3,619 3,837 4,067 4,311 4,570
Arunachal 1,298 1,363 1,431 1,503 1,578 1,657 1,740
Pradesh
Mizoram 1,380 1,476 1,577 1,686 1,802 1,926 2,059
North Eastern 27,304 28,364 29,462 30,606 31,796 33,035 34,330
Region
Andaman & 561 589 618 649 681 715 751
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadwee 101 106 111 117 123 129 135
p
All-India 2,273,895 2,378,766 2,487,950 2,601,973 2,721,163 2,845,796 2,976,390
Table A5.2: CAGR of Forecasted Electrical Energy Requirement (PAM Baseline Scenario)
State/Region FY 2016-17 to FY FY 2021-22 to FY 2016-17 to FY 2026-27 to FY 2016-17 to
2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Delhi 6.18 6.31 6.25 5.76 6
Haryana 6.37 6.19 6.28 5.64 5.96
Himachal 5 5 5 5 5
Pradesh
Jammu & 3.24 3.51 3.38 2.83 3.1
Kashmir
Punjab 4.63 4.56 4.59 3.98 4.29
Rajasthan 6.02 5.9 5.96 5.36 5.66
Uttar Pradesh 4.41 4.59 4.5 4.01 4.26
Uttarakhand 8.39 7.54 7.96 6.89 7.42
Chandigarh 4.49 4.64 4.57 4.07 4.32
Northern 5.33 5.36 5.35 4.87 5.11
Region
Goa 3.31 3.6 3.45 3.24 3.35
Gujarat 3.82 4.43 4.12 4.05 4.09
Chhattisgarh 3.55 3.88 3.71 3.52 3.62
Madhya 3.58 3.79 3.69 3.43 3.56
Pradesh
Maharashtra 3.64 3.88 3.76 3.52 3.64

State/Region FY 2016-17 to FY FY 2021-22 to FY 2016-17 to FY 2026-27 to FY 2016-17 to
2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
D. & N. Haveli 5 5 5 5 5
Daman & Diu 5 5 5 5 5
Western 3.71 4.05 3.88 3.71 3.79
Region
Andhra 5.03 5.08 5.05 4.59 4.82
Pradesh
Telangana 5.03 5.08 5.05 4.59 4.82
Karnataka 4.43 4.88 4.65 4.38 4.52
Kerala 4.26 4.35 4.31 3.85 4.08
Tamil Nadu 5.53 5.57 5.55 5.07 5.31
Puducherry 5.45 5.01 5.23 4.52 4.87
Southern 5.01 5.15 5.08 4.67 4.87
Region
Bihar 8.72 7.79 8.25 7.09 7.67
Jharkhand 6.4 6.96 6.68 6.31 6.49
Odisha 6.11 6.45 6.28 5.78 6.03
West Bengal 7.78 6.1 6.94 5.35 6.14
Sikkim 4.97 4.98 4.98 4.99 4.98
Eastern Region 7.46 6.62 7.04 5.95 6.49
Assam 3.13 3.64 3.38 2.92 3.15
Manipur 2.27 3.1 2.68 2.3 2.49
Meghalaya 6.21 5.1 5.66 4.51 5.08
Nagaland 6.01 5.79 5.9 5.21 5.56
Tripura 5.52 6.7 6.11 6.12 6.12
Arunachal 4.99 5 4.99 5 5
Pradesh
Mizoram 6.4 7.66 7.02 7 7.01
North Eastern 4.04 4.47 4.26 3.95 4.1
Region
Andaman & 4.97 5 4.99 4.98 4.98
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadweep 5.39 5.01 5.2 4.98 5.09
All-India 5.01 5.1 5.05 4.66 4.86
Table A5.3: Forecasted Electrical Energy Requirement (PAM Optimistic Scenario) in MUs
State/Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delhi 31,588 33,625 35,584 37,818 40,241 42,833 45,596
Haryana 50,958 54,723 58,028 61,656 65,548 69,696 74,108
Himachal 9,262 9,725 10,211 10,722 11,258 11,821 12,412
Pradesh
Jammu & 17,810 18,297 18,819 19,489 20,221 20,985 21,773
Kashmir
Punjab 50,740 53,378 55,694 58,283 61,033 63,918 66,935

State/Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Rajasthan 71,560 76,544 80,883 85,675 90,820 96,296 102,109
Uttar Pradesh 110,295 115,211 119,878 125,348 131,253 137,482 144,007
Uttarakhand 13,452 14,883 16,094 17,378 18,748 20,214 21,784
Chandigarh 1,668 1,745 1,817 1,902 1,992 2,088 2,188
Northern 357,333 378,131 397,008 418,271 441,114 465,333 490,912
Region
Goa 5,040 5,197 5,352 5,537 5,738 5,949 6,168
Gujarat 102,981 105,580 109,367 114,057 119,178 124,577 130,222
Chhattisgarh 25,714 26,533 27,400 28,426 29,539 30,707 31,925
Madhya 61,601 63,736 65,867 68,314 70,937 73,683 76,539
Pradesh
Maharashtra 143,165 148,033 153,106 158,923 165,167 171,710 178,523
D. & N. Haveli 6,221 6,532 6,859 7,202 7,562 7,940 8,337
Daman & Diu 2,454 2,577 2,706 2,841 2,983 3,132 3,289
Western 347,176 358,188 370,657 385,300 401,104 417,698 435,003
Region
Andhra 52,501 55,418 57,999 60,915 64,056 67,380 70,883
Pradesh
Telangana 52,756 55,688 58,281 61,212 64,368 67,709 71,228
Karnataka 67,154 69,770 72,601 76,041 79,795 83,774 87,961
Kerala 23,929 25,008 25,991 27,120 28,332 29,605 30,934
Tamil Nadu 101,157 107,197 112,772 119,043 125,791 132,953 140,528
Puducherry 2,509 2,689 2,828 2,972 3,124 3,285 3,453
Southern 300,006 315,770 330,472 347,303 365,466 384,706 404,987
Region
Bihar 26,326 29,193 31,758 34,407 37,204 40,189 43,393
Jharkhand 14,675 15,564 16,503 17,590 18,797 20,113 21,536
Odisha 28,086 29,804 31,522 33,483 35,640 37,971 40,471
West Bengal 62,728 69,635 75,274 80,690 86,112 91,687 97,505
Sikkim 419 440 462 485 509 534 561
Eastern Region 132,234 144,636 155,519 166,655 178,262 190,494 203,466
Assam 9,282 9,453 9,706 10,067 10,465 10,880 11,306
Manipur 867 864 881 910 942 975 1,008
Meghalaya 1,854 2,041 2,157 2,272 2,392 2,519 2,651
Nagaland 776 833 879 931 986 1,044 1,106
Tripura 1,394 1,434 1,508 1,606 1,715 1,833 1,958
Arunachal 656 689 723 759 797 837 879
Pradesh
Mizoram 531 549 582 625 674 727 785
North Eastern 15,360 15,863 16,436 17,170 17,971 18,815 19,693
Region
Andaman & 284 298 313 329 345 362 380
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadweep 50 53 56 59 62 65 68
All-India 1,152,443 1,212,939 1,270,461 1,335,087 1,404,324 1,477,473 1,554,509

State/Region 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Delhi 48,536 51,664 54,992 58,531 62,294 66,293 70,544
Haryana 78,799 83,785 89,084 94,715 100,695 107,045 113,785
Himachal 13,033 13,685 14,369 15,087 15,841 16,633 17,465
Pradesh
Jammu & 22,579 23,402 24,240 25,093 25,968 26,869 27,799
Kashmir
Punjab 70,084 73,371 76,800 80,375 84,110 88,011 92,085
Rajasthan 108,275 114,814 121,747 129,099 136,887 145,134 153,865
Uttar 150,826 157,947 165,380 173,136 181,234 189,693 198,529
Pradesh
Uttarakhand 23,465 25,265 27,193 29,257 31,472 33,850 36,405
Chandigarh 2,292 2,402 2,516 2,636 2,760 2,891 3,027
Northern 517,889 546,335 576,321 607,929 641,261 676,419 713,504
Region
Goa 6,396 6,632 6,876 7,130 7,392 7,664 7,946
Gujarat 136,116 142,265 148,680 155,372 162,358 169,649 177,258
Chhattisgarh 33,191 34,507 35,876 37,299 38,777 40,312 41,905
Madhya 79,508 82,591 85,795 89,123 92,575 96,155 99,869
Pradesh
Maharashtra 185,609 192,977 200,636 208,600 216,868 225,451 234,361
D. & N. 8,754 9,192 9,652 10,135 10,642 11,174 11,733
Haveli
Daman & 3,453 3,626 3,807 3,997 4,197 4,407 4,627
Diu
Western 453,027 471,790 491,322 511,656 532,809 554,812 577,699
Region
Andhra 74,568 78,447 82,526 86,817 91,329 96,069 101,048
Pradesh
Telangana 74,932 78,828 82,927 87,240 91,774 96,537 101,539
Karnataka 92,358 96,974 101,821 106,909 112,244 117,837 123,699
Kerala 32,322 33,769 35,278 36,851 38,491 40,201 41,984
Tamil Nadu 148,533 156,990 165,924 175,362 185,328 195,848 206,949
Puducherry 3,630 3,816 4,012 4,218 4,434 4,661 4,899
Southern 426,343 448,824 472,488 497,397 523,600 551,153 580,118
Region
Bihar 46,843 50,562 54,572 58,897 63,560 68,585 74,000
Jharkhand 23,066 24,709 26,471 28,360 30,382 32,546 34,862
Odisha 43,142 45,991 49,028 52,264 55,708 59,374 63,274
West Bengal 103,627 110,091 116,929 124,167 131,830 139,948 148,547
Sikkim 589 618 649 681 715 751 789
Eastern 217,267 231,971 247,649 264,369 282,195 301,204 321,472
Region
Assam 11,742 12,186 12,639 13,100 13,573 14,063 14,568
Manipur 1,042 1,076 1,110 1,144 1,178 1,213 1,249
Meghalaya 2,791 2,937 3,091 3,253 3,423 3,601 3,789
Nagaland 1,172 1,242 1,315 1,394 1,476 1,564 1,656
Tripura 2,093 2,236 2,390 2,553 2,728 2,914 3,113

State/Region 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Arunachal 923 969 1,017 1,068 1,121 1,177 1,236
Pradesh
Mizoram 846 912 983 1,059 1,141 1,229 1,324
North Eastern 20,609 21,558 22,545 23,571 24,640 25,761 26,935
Region
Andaman & 399 419 440 462 485 509 534
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadwee 71 75 79 83 87 91 96
p
All-India 1,635,605 1,720,972 1,810,844 1,905,467 2,005,077 2,109,949 2,220,358
State/Region 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Delhi 75,061 79,861 84,961 90,378 96,133 102,245 108746
Haryana 120,940 128,534 136,593 145,145 154,220 163,848 174077
Himachal 18,338 19,255 20,218 21,229 22,290 23,405 24576
Pradesh
Jammu & 28,759 29,750 30,772 31,826 32,913 34,035 35195
Kashmir
Punjab 96,340 100,783 105,421 110,264 115,320 120,597 126115
Rajasthan 163,108 172,891 183,246 194,205 205,801 218,072 231075
Uttar 207,760 217,401 227,470 237,986 248,966 260,431 272424
Pradesh
Uttarakhand 39,149 42,097 45,263 48,662 52,313 56,232 60445
Chandigarh 3,170 3,318 3,474 3,637 3,807 3,984 4169
Northern 752,625 793,890 837,418 883,332 931,763 982,849 1036822
Region
Goa 8,237 8,539 8,851 9,174 9,508 9,854 10213
Gujarat 185,198 193,482 202,126 211,144 220,551 230,365 240616
Chhattisgarh 43,558 45,275 47,056 48,905 50,823 52,813 54881
Madhya 103,720 107,713 111,854 116,148 120,599 125,214 130006
Pradesh
Maharashtra 243,609 253,207 263,170 273,508 284,237 295,369 306937
D. & N. 12,320 12,936 13,583 14,262 14,975 15,724 16510
Haveli
Daman & 4,858 5,101 5,356 5,624 5,905 6,200 6510
Diu
Western 601,500 626,253 651,996 678,765 706,598 735,539 765673
Region
Andhra 106,276 111,767 117,532 123,586 129,941 136,612 143626
Pradesh
Telangana 106,794 112,311 118,105 124,187 130,573 137,277 144325
Karnataka 129,843 136,281 143,028 150,098 157,505 165,264 173405
Kerala 43,843 45,781 47,800 49,905 52,099 54,384 56769
Tamil Nadu 218,662 231,022 244,061 257,816 272,326 287,630 303794
Puducherry 5,149 5,412 5,687 5,976 6,279 6,597 6931

State/Region 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Southern 610,567 642,574 676,213 711,568 748,723 787,764 828850
Region
Bihar 79,833 86,118 92,888 100,179 108,030 116,485 125602
Jharkhand 37,339 39,987 42,819 45,847 49,084 52,543 56246
Odisha 67,424 71,838 76,533 81,527 86,836 92,482 98495
West Bengal 157,657 167,307 177,529 188,355 199,819 211,959 224837
Sikkim 828 869 912 958 1,006 1,056 1108
Eastern 343,081 366,119 390,681 416,866 444,775 474,525 506288
Region
Assam 5,090 15,630 16,187 16,763 17,357 17,971 18607
Manipur 1,287 1,325 1,364 1,404 1,445 1,487 1530
Meghalaya 3,985 4,192 4,409 4,637 4,876 5,127 5391
Nagaland 1,754 1,857 1,967 2,082 2,205 2,334 2471
Tripura 3,326 3,552 3,793 4,051 4,325 4,618 4931
Arunachal 1,298 1,363 1,431 1,503 1,578 1,657 1740
Pradesh
Mizoram 1,426 1,535 1,653 1,780 1,916 2,063 2221
North Eastern 28,166 29,454 30,804 32,220 33,702 35,257 36891
Region
Andaman & 561 589 618 649 681 715 751
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadwee 101 106 111 117 123 129 135
p
All-India 2,336,601 2,458,985 2,587,841 2,723,517 2,866,365 3,016,778 3175410
Table A5.3: CAGR of Forecasted Electrical Energy Requirement (PAM Optimistic Scenario)
State/Region FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 to FY FY 2016-17 to FY 2026-27 to FY 2016-17 to
FY 2021-22 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Delhi 6.28 6.44 6.36 6.39 6.38
Haryana 6.46 6.33 6.39 6.28 6.34
Himachal 5 5 5 5 5
Pradesh
Jammu & 3.34 3.64 3.49 3.44 3.46
Kashmir
Punjab 4.73 4.69 4.71 4.61 4.66
Rajasthan 6.12 6.04 6.08 5.99 6.04
Uttar Pradesh 4.51 4.72 4.61 4.64 4.62
Uttarakhand 8.49 7.68 8.08 7.53 7.8
Chandigarh 4.59 4.77 4.68 4.69 4.69
Northern 5.42 5.49 5.46 5.48 5.47
Region
Goa 3.37 3.69 3.53 3.66 3.59
Gujarat 3.88 4.52 4.2 4.47 4.33
Chhattisgarh 3.61 3.97 3.79 3.94 3.86

State/Region FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 to FY FY 2016-17 to FY 2026-27 to FY 2016-17 to
FY 2021-22 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Madhya 3.65 3.88 3.76 3.85 3.81
Pradesh
Maharashtra 3.7 3.97 3.84 3.94 3.89
D. & N. Haveli 5 5 5 5 5
Daman & Diu 5 5 5 5 5
Western 3.77 4.14 3.95 4.11 4.03
Region
Andhra 5.12 5.2 5.16 5.16 5.16
Pradesh
Telangana 5.12 5.2 5.16 5.16 5.16
Karnataka 4.52 5 4.76 4.96 4.86
Kerala 4.35 4.48 4.41 4.42 4.41
Tamil Nadu 5.62 5.69 5.66 5.65 5.65
Puducherry 5.54 5.13 5.33 5.09 5.21
Southern 5.1 5.27 5.19 5.24 5.21
Region
Bihar 8.83 7.94 8.39 7.87 8.13
Jharkhand 6.51 7.11 6.81 7.09 6.95
Odisha 6.22 6.6 6.41 6.54 6.47
West Bengal 7.89 6.25 7.07 6.12 6.59
Sikkim 4.97 4.98 4.98 4.99 4.98
Eastern Region 7.57 6.77 7.17 6.71 6.94
Assam 3.23 3.78 3.51 3.57 3.54
Manipur 2.38 3.25 2.81 2.95 2.88
Meghalaya 6.32 5.25 5.78 5.18 5.48
Nagaland 6.11 5.95 6.03 5.89 5.96
Tripura 5.63 6.85 6.24 6.8 6.52
Arunachal 4.99 5 4.99 5 5
Pradesh
Mizoram 6.48 7.81 7.15 7.69 7.42
North Eastern 4.14 4.61 4.38 4.58 4.48
Region
Andaman & 4.97 5 4.99 4.98 4.98
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadweep 5.39 5.01 5.2 4.98 5.09
All-India 5.09 5.22 5.16 5.24 5.2
Table A5.4: Forecasted Electrical Energy Requirement (PAM Pessimistic Scenario) in MUs
State/Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delhi 31,588 33,625 35,584 37,554 39,592 41,725 43,966
Haryana 50,958 54,723 58,028 61,223 64,486 67,886 71,452
Himachal 9,262 9,725 10,211 10,722 11,258 11,821 12,412
Pradesh

State/Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Jammu & 17,810 18,297 18,819 19,353 19,894 20,441 20,993
Kashmir
Punjab 50,740 53,378 55,694 57,874 60,046 62,260 64,537
Rajasthan 71,560 76,544 80,883 85,073 89,348 93,794 98,447
Uttar Pradesh 110,295 115,211 119,878 124,471 129,132 133,917 138,850
Uttarakhand 13,452 14,883 16,094 17,256 18,445 19,690 21,003
Chandigarh 1,668 1,745 1,817 1,888 1,960 2,034 2,109
Northern 357,333 378,131 397,008 415,414 434,161 453,568 473,76
Region 9
Goa 5,040 5,197 5,352 5,510 5,674 5,843 6,017
Gujarat 102,981 105,580 109,367 113,512 117,852 122,358 127,028
Chhattisgarh 25,714 26,533 27,400 28,291 29,211 30,161 31,143
Madhya 61,601 63,736 65,867 67,981 70,140 72,362 74,653
Pradesh
Maharashtra 143,165 148,033 153,106 158,164 163,331 168,653 174,145
D. & N. Haveli 6,221 6,532 6,859 7,202 7,562 7,940 8,337
Daman & Diu 2,454 2,577 2,706 2,841 2,983 3,132 3,289
Western 347,176 358,188 370,657 383,501 396,753 410,449 424,61
Region 2
Andhra 52,501 55,418 57,999 60,511 63,083 65,752 68,532
Pradesh
Telangana 52,756 55,688 58,281 60,806 63,390 66,072 68,865
Karnataka 67,154 69,770 72,601 75,536 78,583 81,749 85,042
Kerala 23,929 25,008 25,991 26,941 27,902 28,890 29,909
Tamil Nadu 101,157 107,197 112,772 118,257 123,885 129,746 135,872
Puducherry 2,509 2,689 2,828 2,953 3,077 3,206 3,339
Southern 300,006 315,770 330,472 345,004 359,920 375,415 391,55
Region 9
Bihar 26,326 29,193 31,758 34,186 36,604 39,090 41,693
Jharkhand 14,675 15,564 16,503 17,476 18,494 19,564 20,692
Odisha 28,086 29,804 31,522 33,269 35,068 36,936 38,888
West Bengal 62,728 69,635 75,274 80,176 84,735 89,195 93,700
Sikkim 419 440 462 485 509 534 561
Eastern Region 132,234 144,636 155,519 165,592 175,410 185,319 195,53
4
Assam 9,282 9,453 9,706 9,986 10,275 10,568 10,864
Manipur 867 864 881 902 925 947 969
Meghalaya 1,854 2,041 2,157 2,254 2,349 2,446 2,547
Nagaland 776 833 879 923 968 1,014 1,063
Tripura 1,394 1,434 1,508 1,593 1,684 1,780 1,882
Arunachal 656 689 723 759 797 837 879
Pradesh
Mizoram 531 549 582 620 662 706 754
North Eastern 15,360 15,863 16,436 17,037 17,660 18,298 18,958
Region

State/Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Andaman & 284 298 313 329 345 362 380
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadweep 50 53 56 59 62 65 68
All-India 1,152,443 1,212,939 1,270,461 1,326,936 1,384,311 1,443,476 1,504,880
State/Region 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Delhi 46,323 48,804 51,415 54,163 57,054 60,095 63,293
Haryana 75,198 79,138 83,281 87,638 92,215 97,024 102,074
Himachal 13,033 13,685 14,369 15,087 15,841 16,633 17,465
Pradesh
Jammu & 21,548 22,104 22,662 23,219 23,782 24,356 24,942
Kashmir
Punjab 66,883 69,303 71,799 74,372 77,028 79,772 82,607
Rajasthan 103,326 108,444 113,815 119,452 125,360 131,551 138,037
Uttar Pradesh 143,940 149,193 154,614 160,207 165,985 171,958 178,131
Uttarakhand 22,393 23,865 25,423 27,072 28,823 30,683 32,661
Chandigarh 2,188 2,269 2,352 2,439 2,528 2,620 2,716
Northern 494,832 516,805 539,730 563,649 588,616 614,692 641,926
Region
Goa 6,196 6,381 6,571 6,766 6,967 7,174 7,386
Gujarat 131,866 136,877 142,068 147,444 153,013 158,784 164,763
Chhattisgarh 32,156 33,202 34,282 35,397 36,547 37,733 38,955
Madhya 77,016 79,454 81,970 84,565 87,236 89,987 92,820
Pradesh
Maharashtra 179,816 185,671 191,715 197,957 204,389 211,020 217,853
D. & N. Haveli 8,754 9,192 9,652 10,135 10,642 11,174 11,733
Daman & Diu 3,453 3,626 3,807 3,997 4,197 4,407 4,627
Western 439,257 454,403 470,065 486,261 502,991 520,279 538,137
Region
Andhra 71,428 74,446 77,592 80,871 84,283 87,834 91,528
Pradesh
Telangana 71,775 74,809 77,970 81,265 84,694 88,262 91,973
Karnataka 88,467 92,029 95,733 99,586 103,587 107,741 112,054
Kerala 30,961 32,047 33,169 34,327 35,523 36,757 38,032
Tamil Nadu 142,282 148,990 156,011 163,358 171,038 179,068 187,460
Puducherry 3,478 3,622 3,773 3,929 4,092 4,262 4,438
Southern 408,391 425,943 444,248 463,336 483,217 503,924 525,485
Region
Bihar 44,441 47,356 50,454 53,750 57,256 60,984 64,949
Jharkhand 21,884 23,143 24,474 25,881 27,367 28,936 30,592
Odisha 40,933 43,079 45,332 47,700 50,187 52,799 55,540
West Bengal 98,329 103,129 108,125 113,335 118,773 124,452 130,387
Sikkim 589 618 649 681 715 751 789
Eastern Region 206,176 217,325 229,034 241,347 254,298 267,922 282,257

State/Region 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Assam 11,160 11,458 11,755 12,052 12,352 12,659 12,973
Manipur 991 1,012 1,032 1,052 1,072 1,092 1,112
Meghalaya 2,652 2,761 2,875 2,992 3,114 3,241 3,373
Nagaland 1,114 1,167 1,223 1,282 1,343 1,408 1,475
Tripura 1,989 2,103 2,223 2,349 2,482 2,623 2,772
Arunachal 923 969 1,017 1,068 1,121 1,177 1,236
Pradesh
Mizoram 804 858 914 974 1,038 1,106 1,179
North Eastern 19,633 20,328 21,039 21,769 22,522 23,306 24,120
Region
Andaman & 399 419 440 462 485 509 534
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadweep 71 75 79 83 87 91 96
All-India 1,568,759 1,635,298 1,704,635 1,776,907 1,852,216 1,930,723 2,012,555
State/Region 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Delhi 66,655 70,190 73,906 77,812 81,917 86,230 90770
Haryana 107,378 112,949 118,797 124,938 131,385 138,152 145268
Himachal 18,338 19,255 20,218 21,229 22,290 23,405 24576
Pradesh
Jammu & 25,539 26,148 26,769 27,403 28,049 28,708 29382
Kashmir
Punjab 85,534 88,559 91,682 94,906 98,236 101,674 105232
Rajasthan 144,831 151,947 159,398 167,199 175,368 183,919 192887
Uttar Pradesh 184,509 191,100 197,908 204,942 212,206 219,709 227477
Uttarakhand 34,764 36,998 39,373 41,896 44,578 47,426 50456
Chandigarh 2,814 2,916 3,022 3,131 3,243 3,359 3479
Northern 670,362 700,062 731,073 763,456 797,272 832,582 869527
Region
Goa 7,605 7,829 8,060 8,296 8,540 8,789 9045
Gujarat 170,958 177,375 184,023 190,909 198,041 205,427 213088
Chhattisgarh 40,214 41,511 42,848 44,226 45,645 47,106 48614
Madhya 95,736 98,738 101,828 105,010 108,284 111,653 115127
Pradesh
Maharashtra 224,895 232,152 239,628 247,331 255,267 263,441 271877
D. & N. Haveli 12,320 12,936 13,583 14,262 14,975 15,724 16510
Daman & Diu 4,858 5,101 5,356 5,624 5,905 6,200 6510
Western 556,586 575,642 595,326 615,658 636,657 658,340 680771
Region
Andhra 95,369 99,365 103,519 107,838 112,329 116,998 121860
Pradesh
Telangana 95,834 99,848 104,022 108,363 112,876 117,567 122454
Karnataka 116,531 121,177 125,999 131,002 136,192 141,578 147177
Kerala 39,348 40,706 42,108 43,554 45,047 46,587 48180

State/Region 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Tamil Nadu 196,231 205,396 214,973 224,978 235,430 246,348 257772
Puducherry 4,621 4,811 5,009 5,214 5,428 5,650 5881
Southern 547,934 571,303 595,630 620,949 647,302 674,728 703324
Region
Bihar 69,165 73,646 78,408 83,470 88,849 94,563 100644
Jharkhand 32,339 34,182 36,127 38,177 40,340 42,621 45031
Odisha 58,419 61,439 64,609 67,935 71,425 75,085 78933
West Bengal 136,589 143,070 149,841 156,916 164,306 172,025 180107
Sikkim 828 869 912 958 1,006 1,056 1108
Eastern Region 297,340 313,206 329,897 347,456 365,926 385,350 405823
Assam 13,293 13,619 13,952 14,292 14,639 14,993 15356
Manipur 1,133 1,154 1,175 1,196 1,218 1,240 1262
Meghalaya 3,509 3,651 3,798 3,951 4,109 4,274 4446
Nagaland 1,545 1,619 1,695 1,776 1,860 1,947 2038
Tripura 2,928 3,094 3,268 3,452 3,645 3,850 4067
Arunachal 1,298 1,363 1,431 1,503 1,578 1,657 1740
Pradesh
Mizoram 1,256 1,337 1,424 1,517 1,615 1,720 1832
North Eastern 24,962 25,837 26,743 27,687 28,664 29,681 30741
Region
Andaman & 561 589 618 649 681 715 751
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadweep 101 106 111 117 123 129 135
All-India 2,097,846 2,186,745 2,279,398 2,375,972 2,476,625 2,581,525 2691072
Table A5.4: CAGR of Forecasted Electrical Energy Requirement (PAM Pessimistic Scenario)
State/Region FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 to FY 2016-17 to FY 2026-27 to FY 2016-17 to
FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Delhi 5.72 5.36 5.54 5.3 5.42
Haryana 5.9 5.24 5.57 5.18 5.38
Himachal Pradesh 5 5 5 5 5
Jammu & Kashmir 2.79 2.58 2.69 2.38 2.53
Punjab 4.18 3.62 3.9 3.53 3.71
Rajasthan 5.56 4.96 5.26 4.91 5.08
Uttar Pradesh 3.96 3.65 3.8 3.57 3.69
Uttarakhand 7.92 6.57 7.24 6.42 6.83
Chandigarh 4.05 3.7 3.87 3.62 3.74
Northern Region 4.89 4.44 4.66 4.43 4.55
Goa 3 2.98 2.99 2.95 2.97
Gujarat 3.51 3.8 3.65 3.75 3.7
Chhattisgarh 3.24 3.25 3.25 3.22 3.24
Madhya Pradesh 3.27 3.17 3.22 3.13 3.18
Maharashtra 3.33 3.26 3.29 3.22 3.26

FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
D. & N. Haveli 5 5 5 5 5
Daman & Diu 5 5 5 5 5
Western Region 3.41 3.45 3.43 3.42 3.42
Andhra Pradesh 4.6 4.23 4.41 4.19 4.3
Telangana 4.6 4.23 4.41 4.19 4.3
Karnataka 4.01 4.03 4.02 3.98 4
Kerala 3.84 3.51 3.67 3.45 3.56
Tamil Nadu 5.1 4.72 4.91 4.67 4.79
Puducherry 5.02 4.15 4.59 4.12 4.35
Southern Region 4.59 4.3 4.44 4.26 4.35
Bihar 8.23 6.58 7.4 6.47 6.94
Jharkhand 5.92 5.76 5.84 5.69 5.77
Odisha 5.63 5.25 5.44 5.17 5.3
West Bengal 7.29 4.91 6.09 4.74 5.42
Sikkim 4.97 4.98 4.98 4.99 4.98
Eastern Region 6.98 5.43 6.2 5.33 5.77
Assam 2.63 2.66 2.65 2.45 2.55
Manipur 1.78 2.13 1.95 1.84 1.89
Meghalaya 5.7 4.11 4.9 4.04 4.47
Nagaland 5.5 4.8 5.15 4.74 4.95
Tripura 5.01 5.7 5.36 5.64 5.5
Arunachal Pradesh 4.99 5 4.99 5 5
Mizoram 5.86 6.65 6.25 6.52 6.39
North Eastern Region 3.56 3.53 3.55 3.51 3.53
Andaman & Nicobar 4.97 5 4.99 4.98 4.98
Islands
Lakshadweep 5.39 5.01 5.2 4.98 5.09
All-India 4.61 4.24 4.43 4.24 4.33
Table A5.5: Forecasted Peak Electricity Demand (PAM Baseline Scenario) in MW
State 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delhi 5,819 6,033 6,326 6,670 7,048 7,457 7,892
Haryana 9,107 9,688 10,248 10,833 11,451 12,108 12,805
Jammu & Kashmir 2,653 2,715 2,780 2,859 2,949 3,047 3,150
Punjab 10,754 11,080 11,507 11,989 12,499 13,035 13,594
Rajasthan 11,478 12,186 12,786 13,424 14,124 14,886 15,701
Uttar Pradesh 16,188 16,892 17,609 18,331 19,087 19,891 20,740
Uttarakhand 2,095 2,261 2,416 2,579 2,757 2,951 3,159
Chandigarh 335 345 357 372 387 404 422
Goa 476 483 486 491 499 509 520
Gujarat 13,647 13,824 14,057 14,363 14,718 15,104 15,506
Chhattisgarh 3,957 4,030 4,092 4,164 4,252 4,349 4,450

State 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Madhya Pradesh 10,141 10,106 10,229 10,425 10,651 10,892 11,141
Maharashtra 20,182 20,601 20,940 21,328 21,782 22,279 22,798
D. & N. Haveli 790 830 872 916 962 1,010 1,061
Daman & Diu 320 336 353 371 390 410 431
Andhra Pradesh 7,236 7,597 7,888 8,210 8,560 8,936 9,331
Telangana 8,312 8,728 9,061 9,431 9,834 10,266 10,720
Karnataka 10,736 11,108 11,489 11,933 12,422 12,946 13,497
Kerala 3,899 4,059 4,191 4,337 4,497 4,668 4,846
Tamil Nadu 14,497 15,293 15,955 16,678 17,462 18,303 19,190
Puducherry 364 388 404 421 439 458 478
Bihar 4,422 5,220 5,839 6,386 6,921 7,472 8,051
Jharkhand 2,479 2,808 3,041 3,249 3,464 3,696 3,944
Odisha 5,345 6,289 6,897 7,402 7,894 8,406 8,944
West Bengal 13,104 16,248 18,275 19,828 21,244 22,651 24,086
Sikkim 119 125 131 138 145 152 160
Assam 1,571 1,597 1,633 1,677 1,725 1,776 1,828
Manipur 164 167 170 174 179 183 188
Meghalaya 354 382 397 412 428 445 463
Nagaland 139 149 155 162 169 176 184
Tripura 282 290 302 316 332 349 367
Mizoram 106 108 113 119 126 134 142
Andaman & 40 42 44 46 48 50 53
Nicobar Islands
Lakshadweep 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
All India 158,994 165,745 173,694 182,355 191,679 201,481 211,783
State 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Delhi 8,355 8,839 9,343 9,868 10,414 10,983 11,575
Haryana 13,543 14,314 15,114 15,947 16,813 17,713 18,648
Jammu & Kashmir 3,256 3,362 3,466 3,569 3,670 3,772 3,874
Punjab 14,177 14,774 15,378 15,993 16,620 17,257 17,906
Rajasthan 16,564 17,463 18,391 19,355 20,353 21,389 22,460
Uttar Pradesh 21,631 22,547 23,479 24,427 25,394 26,379 27,382
Uttarakhand 3,381 3,615 3,859 4,116 4,387 4,671 4,970
Chandigarh 440 459 478 497 517 538 558
Goa 531 543 554 566 577 589 601
Gujarat 15,920 16,340 16,762 17,188 17,619 18,055 18,497
Chhattisgarh 4,554 4,660 4,765 4,872 4,979 5,086 5,195
Madhya Pradesh 11,396 11,653 11,909 12,167 12,427 12,688 12,951
Maharashtra 23,332 23,872 24,413 24,956 25,504 26,056 26,612
D. & N. Haveli 1,114 1,170 1,229 1,290 1,355 1,423 1,494
Daman & Diu 453 476 500 525 551 579 608

State 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Andhra Pradesh 9,743 10,166 10,596 11,037 11,490 11,955 12,430
Telangana 11,194 11,679 12,173 12,680 13,201 13,734 14,281
Karnataka 14,071 14,656 15,251 15,860 16,483 17,121 17,772
Kerala 5,031 5,218 5,406 5,598 5,792 5,990 6,191
Tamil Nadu 20,119 21,075 22,054 23,063 24,104 25,176 26,281
Puducherry 499 520 542 564 587 610 634
Bihar 8,666 9,314 9,996 10,715 11,473 12,272 13,114
Jharkhand 4,209 4,489 4,783 5,090 5,412 5,749 6,101
Odisha 9,511 10,103 10,716 11,353 12,015 12,703 13,417
West Bengal 25,567 27,087 28,643 30,243 31,894 33,597 35,354
Sikkim 168 176 185 194 204 214 225
Assam 1,882 1,934 1,984 2,034 2,083 2,132 2,181
Manipur 193 197 202 206 210 214 217
Meghalaya 481 500 519 538 557 577 597
Nagaland 193 201 210 218 228 237 246
Tripura 386 406 426 447 469 491 514
Mizoram 150 159 168 177 187 197 207
Andaman & 56 59 62 65 68 71 75
Nicobar Islands
All India 222,346 233,155 244,342 255,911 267,866 280,211 292,947
State 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Delhi 12,189 12,828 13,495 14,193 14,926 15,695 16,504
Haryana 19,618 20,624 21,675 22,774 23,925 25,132 26,400
Jammu & Kashmir 3,976 4,077 4,180 4,284 4,391 4,500 4,612
Punjab 18,567 19,238 19,926 20,634 21,364 22,118 22,899
Rajasthan 23,569 24,715 25,909 27,155 28,458 29,821 31,249
Uttar Pradesh 28,403 29,441 30,505 31,600 32,729 33,896 35,105
Uttarakhand 5,284 5,615 5,964 6,333 6,725 7,140 7,581
Chandigarh 579 601 623 646 669 693 718
Goa 612 624 636 648 660 672 684
Gujarat 18,943 19,395 19,853 20,322 20,800 21,289 21,789
Chhattisgarh 5,304 5,414 5,525 5,638 5,754 5,871 5,990
Madhya Pradesh 13,215 13,480 13,749 14,023 14,302 14,586 14,876
Maharashtra 27,171 27,734 28,304 28,883 29,473 30,074 30,687
D. & N. Haveli 1,569 1,647 1,729 1,815 1,906 2,001 2,101
Daman & Diu 638 670 704 739 776 815 856
Andhra Pradesh 12,918 13,416 13,931 14,465 15,018 15,591 16,186
Telangana 14,840 15,413 16,005 16,618 17,254 17,912 18,595

State 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Karnataka 18,437 19,116 19,816 20,541 21,290 22,065 22,868
Kerala 6,394 6,601 6,813 7,031 7,256 7,487 7,725
Tamil Nadu 27,418 28,587 29,800 31,063 32,377 33,744 35,169
Puducherry 659 684 710 736 764 793 823
Bihar 14,001 14,934 15,920 16,964 18,073 19,250 20,504
Jharkhand 6,468 6,852 7,254 7,677 8,122 8,592 9,089
Odisha 14,158 14,927 15,728 16,566 17,444 18,365 19,335
West Bengal 37,168 39,037 40,976 42,996 45,104 47,305 49,613
Sikkim 236 248 260 273 287 301 316
Assam 2,229 2,278 2,326 2,376 2,426 2,478 2,531
Manipur 221 225 229 233 236 240 244
Meghalaya 617 638 660 681 704 728 753
Nagaland 256 266 276 287 298 310 322
Tripura 538 562 588 615 642 671 701
Mizoram 218 230 242 254 268 281 295
Andaman & 79 83 87 91 96 101 106
Nicobar Islands
All India 306,077 319,794 334,126 349,101 364,747 381,093 398,172
Table A5.5: CAGR of forecasted Peak Electricity Demand (PAM Baseline Scenario)

FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Delhi 5.09 5.76 5.42 5.28 5.35
Haryana 5.86 5.66 5.76 5.17 5.47
Himachal Pradesh 4.99 5.00 4.99 5 5
Jammu & Kashmir 2.81 3.21 3.01 2.6 2.8
Punjab 3.92 4.18 4.05 3.65 3.85
Rajasthan 5.34 5.39 5.36 4.91 5.14
Uttar Pradesh 4.21 4.19 4.2 3.69 3.95
Uttarakhand 7.09 6.88 6.99 6.3 6.64
Chandigarh 3.82 4.23 4.02 3.75 3.89
Goa 1.35 2.15 1.75 1.91 1.83
Gujarat 2.05 2.62 2.33 2.4 2.37
Chhattisgarh 1.91 2.30 2.1 2.09 2.09
Madhya Pradesh 1.44 2.24 1.84 2.03 1.93
Maharashtra 2.00 2.30 2.15 2.09 2.12
D. & N. Haveli 5.04 5.02 5.03 5 5.01
Daman & Diu 5.08 5.07 5.08 5.01 5.04
Andhra Pradesh 4.31 4.31 4.31 3.9 4.11
Telangana 4.31 4.31 4.31 3.9 4.11
Karnataka 3.81 4.14 3.98 3.73 3.85

FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Kerala 3.67 3.70 3.68 3.27 3.48
Tamil Nadu 4.77 4.73 4.75 4.31 4.53
Puducherry 4.70 4.25 4.48 3.85 4.16
Bihar 11.06 7.48 9.25 6.7 7.97
Jharkhand 8.32 6.61 7.46 5.97 6.71
Odisha 9.48 6.20 7.82 5.47 6.64
West Bengal 11.57 5.95 8.72 5.07 6.88
Sikkim 5.02 5.00 5.01 5 5
Assam 2.48 2.75 2.62 2.21 2.41
Manipur 2.22 2.40 2.31 1.71 2.01
Meghalaya 4.68 3.87 4.27 3.42 3.85
Nagaland 4.83 4.37 4.6 3.98 4.29
Tripura 4.36 5.07 4.71 4.6 4.66
Arunachal Pradesh 5.01 4.89 4.95 5.03 4.99
Mizoram 4.80 5.72 5.26 5.24 5.25
Andaman & 4.56 5.39 4.97 5.01 4.99
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadweep 0.00 0.00 0 0 0
All-India 4.85 4.90 4.87 4.52 4.7
Table A5.6: Forecasted Peak Electricity Demand (PAM Optimistic Scenario) in MW
State 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delhi 5819 6033 6326 6682 7070 7485 7925
Haryana 9107 9688 10248 10852 11487 12155 12858
Himachal Pradesh 1586 1665 1748 1835 1927 2023 2124
Jammu & Kashmir 2653 2715 2780 2864 2959 3059 3163
Punjab 10754 11080 11507 12010 12539 13085 13650
Rajasthan 11478 12186 12786 13450 14172 14946 15767
Uttar Pradesh 16188 16892 17609 18360 19144 19965 20825
Uttarakhand 2095 2261 2416 2584 2767 2962 3172
Chandigarh 335 345 357 372 389 406 423
Goa 476 483 486 491 500 510 521
Gujarat 13647 13824 14057 14373 14740 15131 15535
Chhattisgarh 3957 4030 4092 4167 4259 4357 4459
Madhya Pradesh 10141 10106 10229 10436 10669 10912 11162
Maharashtra 20182 20601 20940 21343 21815 22319 22841
D. & N. Haveli 790 830 872 916 962 1010 1061
Daman & Diu 320 336 353 371 390 410 431
Andhra Pradesh 7236 7597 7888 8227 8589 8969 9366
Telangana 8312 8728 9061 9451 9867 10303 10758
Karnataka 10736 11108 11489 11959 12464 12994 13546
Kerala 3899 4059 4191 4346 4512 4685 4864

State 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Tamil Nadu 14497 15293 15955 16713 17521 18370 19260
Puducherry 364 388 404 422 440 459 479
Bihar 4422 5220 5839 6398 6945 7505 8091
Jharkhand 2479 2808 3041 3255 3477 3712 3963
Odisha 5345 6289 6897 7416 7922 8443 8988
West Bengal 13104 16248 18275 19865 21319 22751 24206
Sikkim 119 125 131 138 145 152 160
Assam 1571 1597 1633 1680 1731 1782 1835
Manipur 164 167 170 174 179 184 189
Meghalaya 354 382 397 413 430 447 465
Nagaland 139 149 155 162 169 177 185
Tripura 282 290 302 317 333 351 369
Mizoram 106 108 113 120 127 134 142
Andaman & 40 42 44 46 48 50 53
Nicobar Islands
All India 158,994 165,745 174,215 183,124 192,487 202,330 212,676
State 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Delhi 8391 8884 9406 9958 10543 11161 11814
Haryana 13601 14386 15217 16095 17023 18003 19038
Jammu & Kashmir 3270 3379 3490 3603 3718 3836 3957
Punjab 14238 14848 15482 16141 16827 17541 18283
Rajasthan 16635 17552 18519 19540 20616 21750 22945
Uttar Pradesh 21723 22659 23633 24646 25701 26797 27939
Uttarakhand 3395 3633 3886 4155 4443 4749 5076
Chandigarh 442 461 481 502 524 546 570
Goa 532 544 556 568 580 593 606
Gujarat 15950 16376 16812 17260 17718 18189 18671
Chhattisgarh 4563 4670 4780 4892 5006 5124 5243
Madhya Pradesh 11418 11680 11948 12222 12502 12788 13080
Maharashtra 23377 23925 24487 25062 25650 26250 26864
D. & N. Haveli 1114 1170 1229 1290 1355 1423 1494
Daman & Diu 453 476 500 525 551 579 608
Andhra Pradesh 9780 10213 10665 11136 11629 12142 12678
Telangana 11235 11732 12250 12793 13358 13948 14563
Karnataka 14123 14723 15349 16002 16681 17388 18124
Kerala 5049 5242 5441 5648 5862 6083 6313
Tamil Nadu 20193 21171 22196 23270 24394 25572 26804
Puducherry 500 522 545 569 594 619 646
Bihar 8711 9372 10077 10833 11643 12511 13442

State 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Jharkhand 4232 4517 4822 5146 5492 5861 6254
Odisha 9561 10165 10803 11478 12193 12950 13752
West Bengal 25702 27256 28878 30579 32367 34252 36239
Sikkim 168 176 185 194 204 214 225
Assam 1889 1943 1997 2052 2109 2166 2225
Manipur 194 198 203 208 212 217 222
Meghalaya 483 502 522 543 564 586 609
Nagaland 193 202 211 220 230 241 251
Tripura 388 408 429 451 474 499 525
Mizoram 151 160 169 179 189 200 212
Andaman & 56 59 62 65 68 71 75
Nicobar Islands
All India 223,551 234,982 246,998 259,628 272,904 286,858 301,527
State 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Delhi 12505 13235 14007 14823 15685 16595 17558
Haryana 20131 21285 22504 23791 25149 26583 28099
Jammu & Kashmir 4082 4211 4343 4479 4619 4763 4911
Punjab 19055 19858 20693 21562 22466 23405 24383
Rajasthan 24203 25529 26925 28395 29943 31573 33292
Uttar Pradesh 29126 30362 31647 32985 34376 35823 37331
Uttarakhand 5426 5798 6196 6621 7074 7558 8075
Chandigarh 594 620 647 674 703 733 764
Goa 619 632 646 660 674 689 704
Gujarat 19165 19672 20191 20724 21269 21829 22404
Chhattisgarh 5366 5491 5619 5749 5883 6019 6158
Madhya Pradesh 13379 13683 13994 14312 14637 14968 15306
Maharashtra 27491 28132 28787 29456 30140 30838 31552
D. & N. Haveli 1569 1647 1729 1815 1906 2001 2101
Daman & Diu 638 670 704 739 776 815 856
Andhra Pradesh 13236 13817 14424 15056 15714 16401 17117
Telangana 15204 15872 16568 17294 18051 18839 19662
Karnataka 18890 19687 20516 21379 22277 23210 24182
Kerala 6551 6797 7052 7317 7590 7874 8169
Tamil Nadu 28094 29445 30858 32337 33884 35503 37199
Puducherry 674 704 734 766 799 833 868
Bihar 14441 15512 16661 17893 19214 20630 22150
Jharkhand 6672 7118 7593 8099 8638 9212 9824
Odisha 14603 15504 16459 17471 18543 19679 20885

State 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
West Bengal 38336 40549 42885 45350 47952 50698 53601
Sikkim 236 248 260 273 287 301 316
Assam 2286 2347 2411 2476 2542 2610 2680
Manipur 227 232 237 243 248 253 258
Meghalaya 633 658 684 711 738 767 797
Nagaland 263 274 287 299 312 326 341
Tripura 552 580 610 641 674 708 744
Mizoram 224 237 251 265 281 297 314
Andaman & 79 83 87 91 96 101 106
Nicobar Islands
All India 316,945 333,152 350,187 368,093 386,915 406,700 427,497
Table A5.6: CAGR of Forecasted Peak Electricity Demand (PAM Optimistic Scenario)

FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Delhi 5.16 5.88 5.52 5.84 5.68
Haryana 5.94 5.78 5.86 5.73 5.8
Himachal Pradesh 4.99 5 4.99 5 5
Jammu & Kashmir 2.89 3.33 3.11 3.15 3.13
Punjab 4 4.29 4.14 4.21 4.18
Rajasthan 5.42 5.51 5.46 5.47 5.47
Uttar Pradesh 4.28 4.3 4.29 4.24 4.27
Uttarakhand 7.17 7 7.09 6.87 6.98
Chandigarh 3.92 4.34 4.13 4.29 4.21
Goa 1.39 2.18 1.78 2.17 1.98
Gujarat 2.09 2.67 2.38 2.64 2.51
Chhattisgarh 1.94 2.34 2.14 2.33 2.24
Madhya Pradesh 1.48 2.29 1.88 2.28 2.08
Maharashtra 2.03 2.35 2.19 2.33 2.26
D. & N. Haveli 5.04 5.02 5.03 5 5.01
Daman & Diu 5.08 5.07 5.08 5.01 5.04
Andhra Pradesh 4.39 4.42 4.41 4.39 4.4
Telangana 4.39 4.42 4.41 4.39 4.4
Karnataka 3.89 4.25 4.07 4.22 4.14
Kerala 3.74 3.81 3.78 3.76 3.77
Tamil Nadu 4.85 4.84 4.85 4.8 4.82
Puducherry 4.75 4.39 4.57 4.31 4.44
Bihar 11.16 7.62 9.37 7.41 8.39
Jharkhand 8.41 6.75 7.58 6.68 7.13
Odisha 9.57 6.33 7.94 6.17 7.05
West Bengal 11.67 6.09 8.84 5.77 7.3

FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Sikkim 5.02 5 5.01 5 5
Assam 2.55 2.86 2.71 2.71 2.71
Manipur 2.33 2.48 2.41 2.18 2.29
Meghalaya 4.78 3.97 4.37 3.91 4.14
Nagaland 4.95 4.45 4.7 4.48 4.59
Tripura 4.47 5.14 4.81 5.13 4.97
Mizoram 4.8 5.96 5.38 5.78 5.58
Andaman & 4.56 5.39 4.97 5.01 4.99
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadweep 0 0 0 0 0
All-India 4.94 5.11 5.03 5.11 5.07
Table A5.7: Forecasted Peak Electricity Demand (PAM Pessimistic Scenario) in MW
State 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delhi 5819 6033 6326 6648 6982 7330 7691
Haryana 9107 9688 10248 10795 11341 11898 12474
Jammu & Kashmir 2653 2715 2780 2848 2919 2991 3065
Punjab 10754 11080 11507 11947 12380 12810 13244
Rajasthan 11478 12186 12786 13374 13980 14614 15276
Uttar Pradesh 16188 16892 17609 18274 18919 19566 20227
Uttarakhand 2095 2261 2416 2570 2730 2898 3074
Chandigarh 335 345 357 371 384 397 411
Goa 476 483 486 490 497 506 515
Gujarat 13647 13824 14057 14343 14657 14985 15322
Chhattisgarh 3957 4030 4092 4159 4235 4315 4398
Madhya Pradesh 10141 10106 10229 10403 10594 10792 10994
Maharashtra 20182 20601 20940 21298 21688 22101 22525
D. & N. Haveli 790 830 872 916 962 1010 1061
Daman & Diu 320 336 353 371 390 410 431
Andhra Pradesh 7236 7597 7888 8175 8469 8774 9090
Telangana 8312 8728 9061 9390 9729 10079 10441
Karnataka 10736 11108 11489 11882 12290 12711 13147
Kerala 3899 4059 4191 4319 4449 4583 4720
Tamil Nadu 14497 15293 15955 16606 17276 17971 18692
Puducherry 364 388 404 419 434 450 466
Bihar 4422 5220 5839 6363 6850 7329 7815
Jharkhand 2479 2808 3041 3237 3428 3624 3828
Odisha 5345 6289 6897 7375 7812 8244 8680
West Bengal 13104 16248 18275 19755 21023 22213 23376
Sikkim 119 125 131 138 145 152 160

State 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Assam 1571 1597 1633 1669 1706 1743 1780
Manipur 164 167 170 173 177 180 183
Meghalaya 354 382 397 410 423 437 450
Nagaland 139 149 155 161 167 173 179
Tripura 282 290 302 315 328 343 357
Mizoram 106 108 113 119 125 131 138
Andaman & 40 42 44 46 48 50 53
Nicobar Islands
All India 158,994 165,745 172,649 179,840 187,330 195,133 203,260
State 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Delhi 8068 8463 8877 9310 9764 10240 10737
Haryana 13073 13700 14355 15041 15759 16509 17295
Jammu & Kashmir 3139 3214 3288 3362 3437 3513 3590
Punjab 13687 14141 14608 15087 15580 16088 16611
Rajasthan 15968 16691 17446 18235 19059 19919 20816
Uttar Pradesh 20905 21603 22322 23061 23822 24607 25415
Uttarakhand 3260 3456 3662 3879 4109 4351 4607
Chandigarh 425 439 454 469 485 501 518
Goa 524 533 542 552 561 571 581
Gujarat 15668 16020 16380 16747 17121 17504 17894
Chhattisgarh 4483 4569 4657 4747 4838 4931 5026
Madhya Pradesh 11201 11411 11625 11843 12064 12290 12519
Maharashtra 22959 23402 23853 24313 24781 25258 25742
D. & N. Haveli 1114 1170 1229 1290 1355 1423 1494
Daman & Diu 453 476 500 525 551 579 608
Andhra Pradesh 9417 9756 10107 10470 10846 11235 11637
Telangana 10817 11206 11609 12027 12459 12906 13368
Karnataka 13598 14064 14546 15044 15559 16090 16638
Kerala 4862 5007 5156 5310 5467 5629 5795
Tamil Nadu 19443 20223 21034 21877 22752 23661 24605
Puducherry 482 499 517 535 554 574 594
Bihar 8318 8843 9395 9977 10593 11245 11934
Jharkhand 4040 4262 4494 4739 4996 5266 5550
Odisha 9128 9590 10070 10570 11092 11638 12208
West Bengal 24538 25714 26918 28159 29444 30779 32167
Sikkim 168 176 185 194 204 214 225
Assam 1816 1853 1890 1926 1962 1999 2037
Manipur 186 189 192 195 197 200 203
Meghalaya 464 479 494 509 525 541 557

State 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Nagaland 186 193 200 207 214 222 230
Tripura 373 389 406 423 441 460 480
Mizoram 145 152 160 168 176 185 194
Andaman & 56 59 62 65 68 71 75
Nicobar Islands
All India 211,726 220,544 229,730 239,299 249,266 259,648 270,462
State 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Delhi 11258 11804 12375 12972 13598 14252 14937
Haryana 18116 18974 19872 20811 21792 22817 23890
Jammu & Kashmir 3669 3749 3831 3914 3998 4084 4172
Punjab 17149 17704 18275 18863 19468 20091 20734
Rajasthan 21752 22728 23746 24808 25915 27070 28276
Uttar Pradesh 26247 27105 27988 28898 29836 30801 31797
Uttarakhand 4878 5164 5467 5786 6124 6482 6861
Chandigarh 535 553 571 590 609 629 650
Goa 592 602 612 623 634 645 656
Gujarat 18292 18698 19113 19537 19969 20410 20861
Chhattisgarh 5122 5220 5320 5421 5524 5629 5736
Madhya Pradesh 12752 12989 13229 13474 13723 13976 14234
Maharashtra 26235 26737 27247 27766 28294 28831 29378
D. & N. Haveli 1569 1647 1729 1815 1906 2001 2101
Daman & Diu 638 670 704 739 776 815 856
Andhra Pradesh 12053 12483 12927 13386 13860 14351 14859
Telangana 13845 14339 14849 15377 15922 16485 17068
Karnataka 17204 17788 18391 19012 19654 20315 20998
Kerala 5966 6141 6321 6506 6696 6891 7092
Tamil Nadu 25584 26601 27656 28752 29888 31068 32295
Puducherry 615 636 659 682 705 730 756
Bihar 12665 13438 14258 15125 16044 17016 18047
Jharkhand 5849 6164 6494 6842 7207 7591 7995
Odisha 12805 13430 14083 14767 15482 16230 17014
West Bengal 33612 35117 36686 38319 40022 41795 43647
Sikkim 236 248 260 273 287 301 316
Assam 2075 2113 2152 2192 2233 2274 2316
Manipur 206 209 212 215 218 220 222
Meghalaya 574 592 610 629 648 667 687
Nagaland 238 247 256 265 274 284 294
Tripura 500 522 544 567 591 616 642

State 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Mizoram 203 213 224 235 246 258 271
Andaman & 79 83 87 91 96 101 106
Nicobar Islands
All India 281,727 293,462 305,684 318,416 331,679 345,493 359,882
Table A5.7: CAGR of Forecasted Peak Electricity Demand (PAM Pessimistic Scenario)
State/Region FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 to FY 2016-17 to FY 2026-27 to FY 2016-17 to FY

FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 2036-37
Delhi 4.73 4.9 4.81 4.84 4.83
Haryana 5.49 4.8 5.15 4.74 4.94
Jammu & Kashmir 2.43 2.37 2.4 2.18 2.29
Punjab 3.56 3.33 3.44 3.23 3.34
Rajasthan 4.95 4.53 4.74 4.48 4.61
Uttar Pradesh 3.86 3.34 3.6 3.26 3.43
Uttarakhand 6.7 6 6.35 5.87 6.11
Chandigarh 3.45 3.39 3.42 3.32 3.37
Goa 1.23 1.76 1.49 1.74 1.62
Gujarat 1.89 2.25 2.07 2.22 2.14
Chhattisgarh 1.75 1.93 1.84 1.91 1.87
Madhya Pradesh 1.25 1.88 1.56 1.86 1.71
Maharashtra 1.83 1.93 1.88 1.91 1.9
D. & N. Haveli 5.04 5.02 5.03 5 5.01
Daman & Diu 5.08 5.07 5.08 5.01 5.04
Andhra Pradesh 3.93 3.6 3.76 3.56 3.66
Telangana 3.93 3.6 3.76 3.56 3.66
Karnataka 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.39 3.41
Kerala 3.29 2.99 3.14 2.94 3.04
Tamil Nadu 4.39 4.01 4.2 3.97 4.09
Puducherry 4.33 3.52 3.93 3.52 3.72
Bihar 10.63 6.36 8.48 6.11 7.29
Jharkhand 7.89 5.51 6.69 5.37 6.03
Odisha 9.05 5.1 7.06 4.88 5.96
West Bengal 11.13 4.86 7.95 4.48 6.2
Sikkim 5.02 5 5.01 5 5
Assam 2.1 2.02 2.06 1.86 1.96
Manipur 1.88 1.61 1.75 1.31 1.53
Meghalaya 4.3 3.1 3.7 3.04 3.37
Nagaland 4.47 3.65 4.06 3.57 3.82
Tripura 3.99 4.28 4.14 4.26 4.2
Arunachal 5.01 4.89 4.95 5.03 4.99
Pradesh

FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 2036-37
Mizoram 4.33 5.1 4.71 4.9 4.81
Andaman & 4.56 5.39 4.97 5.01 4.99
Nicobar
Islands
All-India 4.18 4.17 4.17 4.17 4.17
Table A5.8: Forecasted Total Electrical Energy Requirement (SUR Model Baseline) in MUs
State/Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delhi 29,737 30,166 30,651 31,161 31,691 32,230 32,777
Haryana 52,214 55,498 59,417 63,764 68,536 73,663 79,170
Jammu & Kashmir 17,979 18,604 19,382 20,229 21,135 22,068 23,027
Punjab 52,795 54,712 57,030 59,555 62,265 65,088 68,030
Rajasthan 73,428 77,481 82,313 87,643 93,456 99,655 106,264
Uttar Pradesh 113,462 119,293 126,448 134,378 143,041 152,234 161,985
Uttarakhand 15,233 16,583 18,184 19,978 21,974 24,156 26,541
Chandigarh 1,657 1,691 1,732 1,775 1,821 1,868 1,916
Northern Region 365,767 383,753 405,368 429,205 455,177 482,783 512,122
Goa 4,268 4,298 4,333 4,369 4,407 4,444 4,483
Gujarat 100,834 103,604 106,830 110,282 113,929 118,002 122,212
Chhattisgarh 25,587 26,881 28,484 30,269 32,227 34,560 37,062
Madhya Pradesh 62,412 64,958 68,083 71,524 75,254 79,604 84,206
Maharashtra 142,771 146,988 152,029 157,482 163,296 169,807 176,577
D. & N. Haveli 6,221 6,532 6,859 7,202 7,562 7,940 8,337
Daman & Diu 2,454 2,577 2,706 2,841 2,983 3,132 3,289
Western Region 344,547 355,838 369,324 383,969 399,658 417,489 436,166
Andhra Pradesh 55,734 58,797 62,546 66,717 71,297 76,468 82,014
Telangana 56,005 59,083 62,851 67,042 71,645 76,841 82,414
Karnataka 68,091 70,200 72,763 75,554 78,544 81,917 85,435
Kerala 25,106 26,262 27,681 29,247 30,951 32,802 34,759
Tamil Nadu 108,565 114,928 122,671 131,290 140,766 151,677 163,427
Puducherry 2,691 2,765 2,858 2,959 3,068 3,199 3,336
Southern Region 316,192 332,035 351,370 372,809 396,271 422,904 451,385
Bihar 25,522 27,349 29,554 32,026 34,767 37,743 40,972
Jharkhand 14,890 15,050 15,234 15,427 15,628 15,832 16,038
Odisha 29,307 30,568 32,084 33,744 35,538 37,426 39,411
West Bengal 75,955 81,255 87,856 95,317 103,641 112,670 122,462
Sikkim 419 440 462 485 509 534 561
Eastern Region 146,093 154,662 165,190 176,999 190,083 204,205 219,444
Assam 9,237 9,864 10,749 11,778 12,944 14,403 15,993
Manipur 667 677 691 707 724 746 767
Meghalaya 2,192 2,277 2,389 2,515 2,653 2,827 3,011

State/Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Nagaland 737 762 792 825 859 895 933
Tripura 1,309 1,379 1,464 1,557 1,658 1,774 1,897
Mizoram 484 524 572 625 684 748 818
North Eastern 15,282 16,172 17,380 18,766 20,319 22,230 24,298
Region
Andaman & 284 298 313 329 345 362 380
Nicobar Islands
Lakshadweep 50 53 56 59 62 65 68
All-India 1,188,215 1,242,811 1,309,001 1,382,136 1,461,915 1,550,038 1,643,863
State/Region 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Delhi 33,321 33,861 34,403 34,947 35,492 36,038 36,585
Haryana 84,950 91,002 97,404 104,165 111,294 118,804 126,706
Jammu & Kashmir 23,973 24,898 25,819 26,750 27,690 28,636 29,588
Punjab 71,000 73,992 77,045 80,165 83,349 86,595 89,901
Rajasthan 113,142 120,284 127,780 135,632 143,844 152,426 161,383
Uttar Pradesh 172,011 182,285 192,953 204,036 215,533 227,442 239,761
Uttarakhand 29,095 31,824 34,763 37,936 41,359 45,046 49,013
Chandigarh 1,964 2,011 2,059 2,106 2,154 2,202 2,250
Northern Region 542,489 573,842 606,595 640,824 676,556 713,822 752,652
Goa 4,520 4,557 4,594 4,630 4,666 4,702 4,738
Gujarat 126,461 130,742 135,105 139,551 144,077 148,683 153,366
Chhattisgarh 39,669 42,379 45,231 48,225 51,361 54,643 58,073
Madhya Pradesh 88,936 93,787 98,826 104,043 109,440 115,018 120,773
Maharashtra 183,429 190,354 197,438 204,667 212,038 219,550 227,197
D. & N. Haveli 8,754 9,192 9,652 10,135 10,642 11,174 11,733
Daman & Diu 3,453 3,626 3,807 3,997 4,197 4,407 4,627
Western Region 455,222 474,637 494,653 515,248 536,421 558,177 580,507
Andhra Pradesh 87,801 93,825 100,169 106,836 113,830 121,156 128,820
Telangana 88,229 94,281 100,657 107,357 114,384 121,746 129,448
Karnataka 88,996 92,596 96,283 100,049 103,892 107,811 111,802
Kerala 36,767 38,820 40,948 43,154 45,435 47,792 50,222
Tamil Nadu 175,760 188,670 202,335 216,760 231,973 247,999 264,859
Puducherry 3,474 3,614 3,756 3,902 4,050 4,202 4,355
Southern Region 481,027 511,806 544,148 578,058 613,564 650,706 689,506
Bihar 44,394 48,011 51,873 55,986 60,363 65,013 69,948
Jharkhand 16,242 16,443 16,644 16,844 17,043 17,242 17,440
Odisha 41,443 43,515 45,658 47,869 50,147 52,493 54,905
West Bengal 132,763 143,557 155,010 167,153 180,005 193,585 207,907
Sikkim 589 618 649 681 715 751 789
Eastern Region 235,431 252,144 269,834 288,533 308,273 329,084 350,989
Assam 17,634 19,306 21,032 22,854 24,766 26,765 28,847

State/Region 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Manipur 787 805 821 837 853 868 882
Meghalaya 3,200 3,393 3,593 3,800 4,014 4,234 4,461
Nagaland 971 1,009 1,049 1,089 1,130 1,173 1,216
Tripura 2,025 2,159 2,300 2,447 2,601 2,763 2,932
Arunachal Pradesh 923 969 1,017 1,068 1,121 1,177 1,236
Mizoram 893 973 1,058 1,150 1,248 1,354 1,467
North Eastern 26,433 28,614 30,870 33,245 35,733 38,334 41,041
Region
Andaman & 399 419 440 462 485 509 534
Nicobar Islands
Lakshadweep 71 75 79 83 87 91 96
All-India 1,741,072 1,841,537 1,946,619 2,056,453 2,171,119 2,290,723 2,415,325
State/Region 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Delhi 37,133 37,688 38,250 38,820 39,397 39,982 40576
Haryana 135,011 143,846 153,244 163,239 173,870 185,174 197213
Himachal Pradesh 18,338 19,255 20,218 21,229 22,290 23,405 24576
Jammu & Kashmir 30,544 31,528 32,540 33,581 34,652 35,753 36889
Punjab 93,263 96,744 100,346 104,074 107,932 111,924 116064
Rajasthan 170,722 180,585 191,000 201,997 213,607 225,864 238824
Uttar Pradesh 252,485 265,854 279,899 294,653 310,150 326,423 343550
Uttarakhand 53,279 57,909 62,934 68,389 74,308 80,731 87709
Chandigarh 2,298 2,348 2,398 2,449 2,501 2,554 2608
Northern Region 793,073 835,757 880,829 928,431 978,707 1,031,810 1088009
Goa 4,773 4,808 4,844 4,880 4,916 4,952 4988
Gujarat 158,124 163,254 168,543 173,994 179,613 185,404 191382
Chhattisgarh 61,651 65,698 70,001 74,578 79,445 84,620 90132
Madhya Pradesh 126,707 133,301 140,225 147,494 155,126 163,136 171560
Maharashtra 234,975 243,372 252,053 261,027 270,304 279,893 289822
D. & N. Haveli 12,320 12,936 13,583 14,262 14,975 15,724 16510
Daman & Diu 4,858 5,101 5,356 5,624 5,905 6,200 6510
Western Region 603,408 628,470 654,605 681,859 710,284 739,929 770904
Andhra Pradesh 136,827 145,594 154,905 164,793 175,291 186,438 198293
Telangana 137,494 146,303 155,660 165,595 176,145 187,345 199258
Karnataka 115,864 120,272 124,838 129,568 134,467 139,541 144806
Kerala 52,726 55,393 58,190 61,121 64,194 67,413 70793
Tamil Nadu 282,572 302,239 323,237 345,656 369,587 395,130 422438
Puducherry 4,511 4,687 4,870 5,059 5,255 5,458 5669
Southern Region 729,994 774,488 821,700 871,792 924,939 981,325 1041257
Bihar 75,179 80,791 86,813 93,272 100,201 107,632 115614
Jharkhand 17,637 17,835 18,036 18,238 18,443 18,649 18857
Odisha 57,383 59,968 62,663 65,474 68,406 71,462 74655
West Bengal 222,989 239,129 256,399 274,876 294,641 315,779 338433

State/Region 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Sikkim 828 869 912 958 1,006 1,056 1108
Eastern Region 374,016 398,592 424,823 452,818 482,697 514,578 548667
Assam 31,005 33,571 36,338 39,321 42,536 46,001 49748
Manipur 896 913 931 948 966 985 1004
Meghalaya 4,694 4,966 5,253 5,556 5,876 6,213 6569
Nagaland 1,260 1,305 1,352 1,401 1,451 1,503 1557
Tripura 3,109 3,303 3,510 3,728 3,960 4,206 4467
Arunachal Pradesh 1,298 1,363 1,431 1,503 1,578 1,657 1740
Mizoram 1,588 1,719 1,861 2,014 2,179 2,357 2550
North Eastern 43,850 47,140 50,676 54,471 58,546 62,922 67635
Region
Andaman & 561 589 618 649 681 715 751
Nicobar Islands
Lakshadweep 101 106 111 117 123 129 135
All-India 2,545,003 2,685,142 2,833,362 2,990,137 3,155,977 3,331,408 3,517,358
Table A5.8: CAGR of Forecasted Total Electrical Energy Requirement (SUR Model Baseline)
FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Delhi 1.62 1.63 1.63 1.5 1.57
Haryana 7.13 7.18 7.15 6.59 6.87
Jammu & Kashmir 4.18 3.92 4.05 3.27 3.66
Punjab 4.28 4.25 4.27 3.77 4.02
Rajasthan 6.3 6.36 6.33 5.82 6.07
Uttar Pradesh 6.06 6.03 6.04 5.35 5.7
Uttarakhand 9.66 9.45 9.55 8.74 9.15
Chandigarh 2.43 2.43 2.43 2.16 2.29
Northern Region 5.71 5.83 5.77 5.44 5.6
Goa 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.75 0.78
Gujarat 3.19 3.41 3.3 3.21 3.26
Chhattisgarh 6.2 6.89 6.54 6.45 6.5
Madhya Pradesh 4.99 5.5 5.24 5.13 5.19
Maharashtra 3.53 3.81 3.67 3.54 3.6
D. & N. Haveli 5 5 5 5 5
Daman & Diu 5 5 5 5 5
Western Region 3.92 4.3 4.11 4.11 4.11
Andhra Pradesh 6.53 6.92 6.72 6.38 6.55
Telangana 6.53 6.92 6.72 6.38 6.55
Karnataka 3.77 4.08 3.92 3.77 3.84
Kerala 5.49 5.64 5.57 5.07 5.32
Tamil Nadu 6.92 7.4 7.16 6.9 7.03
Puducherry 3.52 4.05 3.79 3.81 3.8
Southern Region 5.99 6.45 6.22 6.06 6.14

FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Bihar 8.14 8.21 8.17 7.52 7.85
Jharkhand 1.23 1.25 1.24 1.14 1.19
Odisha 5.01 5.05 5.03 4.54 4.79
West Bengal 8.21 8.21 8.21 7.31 7.76
Sikkim 4.97 4.98 4.98 4.99 4.98
Eastern Region 6.93 7.16 7.04 6.64 6.84
Assam 9.29 9.67 9.48 8.09 8.78
Manipur 2.26 2.33 2.3 1.84 2.07
Meghalaya 5.22 6.09 5.66 5.63 5.64
Nagaland 3.96 4 3.98 3.64 3.81
Tripura 6.27 6.64 6.46 6.2 6.33
Mizoram 9.1 8.98 9.04 8.29 8.66
Andaman & 4.97 5 4.99 4.98 4.98
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadweep 5.39 5.01 5.2 4.98 5.09
All-India 5.46 5.82 5.64 5.51 5.58
Table A5.9: Forecasted Total Electrical Energy Requirement (SUR Model Optimistic) in MUs
State/Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delhi 29,737 30,166 30,680 31,202 31,732 32,272 32,820
Haryana 52,214 55,498 59,656 64,123 68,922 74,078 79,616
Jammu & Kashmir 17,979 18,604 19,460 20,343 21,254 22,193 23,157
Punjab 52,795 54,712 57,217 59,829 62,552 65,389 68,344
Rajasthan 73,428 77,481 82,621 88,103 93,947 100,178 106,822
Uttar Pradesh 113,462 119,293 127,030 135,244 143,963 153,214 163,029
Uttarakhand 15,233 16,583 18,263 20,099 22,108 24,303 26,702
Chandigarh 1,657 1,691 1,735 1,780 1,826 1,873 1,921
Northern Region 365,767 383,753 406,873 431,445 457,562 485,321 514,823
Goa 4,268 4,298 4,335 4,372 4,410 4,448 4,486
Gujarat 100,834 103,604 107,046 110,595 114,252 118,336 122,558
Chhattisgarh 25,587 26,881 28,620 30,471 32,442 34,791 37,309
Madhya Pradesh 62,412 64,958 68,346 71,911 75,662 80,036 84,662
Maharashtra 142,771 146,988 152,416 158,043 163,878 170,412 177,206
D. & N. Haveli 6,221 6,532 6,859 7,202 7,562 7,940 8,337
Daman & Diu 2,454 2,577 2,706 2,841 2,983 3,132 3,289
Western Region 344,547 355,838 370,328 385,435 401,189 419,095 437,847
Andhra Pradesh 55,733 58,797 62,833 67,146 71,756 76,960 82,542
Telangana 56,005 59,083 63,139 67,473 72,106 77,335 82,944
Karnataka 68,091 70,200 72,979 75,868 78,871 82,258 85,790

State/Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Kerala 25,106 26,262 27,798 29,421 31,135 32,997 34,965
Tamil Nadu 108,565 114,928 123,233 132,133 141,670 152,651 164,477
Puducherry 2,691 2,765 2,867 2,972 3,082 3,213 3,351
Southern Region 316,191 332,035 352,849 375,013 398,620 425,414 454,069
Bihar 25,522 27,349 29,692 32,235 34,994 37,989 41,240
Jharkhand 14,890 15,050 15,246 15,445 15,646 15,850 16,057
Odisha 29,307 30,568 32,196 33,909 35,712 37,609 39,604
West Bengal 75,955 81,255 88,382 96,118 104,511 113,616 123,491
Sikkim 419 440 462 485 509 534 561
Eastern Region 146,093 154,662 165,978 178,192 191,372 205,598 220,953
Assam 9,237 9,864 10,880 11,979 13,165 14,649 16,266
Manipur 667 677 694 711 728 750 772
Meghalaya 2,192 2,277 2,403 2,535 2,674 2,849 3,035
Nagaland 737 762 794 828 862 898 936
Tripura 1,309 1,379 1,470 1,566 1,668 1,784 1,908
Mizoram 484 524 574 629 688 753 823
North Eastern 15,282 16,172 17,538 19,007 20,582 22,520 24,619
Region
Andaman & 284 298 313 329 345 362 380
Nicobar Islands
Lakshadweep 50 53 56 59 62 65 68
All-India 1,188,214 1,242,811 1,313,935 1,389,480 1,469,732 1,558,375 1,652,759
State/Region 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Delhi 33,376 33,942 34,517 35,102 35,695 36,297 36,909
Haryana 85,566 91,956 98,821 106,188 114,093 122,573 131,672
Jammu & Kashmir 24,147 25,160 26,196 27,270 28,386 29,545 30,748
Punjab 71,422 74,627 77,963 81,444 85,074 88,859 92,804
Rajasthan 113,906 121,459 129,512 138,087 147,216 156,934 167,279
Uttar Pradesh 173,437 184,471 196,166 208,574 221,741 235,714 250,538
Uttarakhand 29,323 32,185 35,310 38,733 42,485 46,595 51,096
Chandigarh 1,971 2,021 2,072 2,125 2,179 2,234 2,291
Northern Region 546,181 579,506 614,926 652,610 692,710 735,384 780,802
Goa 4,525 4,564 4,603 4,642 4,682 4,722 4,762
Gujarat 126,921 131,430 136,090 140,912 145,896 151,050 156,378
Chhattisgarh 40,010 42,906 46,012 49,337 52,897 56,707 60,784
Madhya Pradesh 89,556 94,733 100,209 105,989 112,092 118,535 125,337
Maharashtra 184,270 191,616 199,253 207,179 215,406 223,945 232,809
D. & N. Haveli 8,754 9,192 9,652 10,135 10,642 11,174 11,733
Daman & Diu 3,453 3,626 3,807 3,997 4,197 4,407 4,627
Western Region 457,489 478,067 499,626 522,191 545,812 570,540 596,430
Andhra Pradesh 88,528 94,948 101,835 109,213 117,112 125,568 134,620

State/Region 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Telangana 88,959 95,411 102,331 109,745 117,683 126,180 135,276
Karnataka 89,473 93,312 97,316 101,484 105,822 110,337 115,037
Kerala 37,047 39,249 41,577 44,038 46,639 49,390 52,297
Tamil Nadu 177,212 190,925 205,693 221,583 238,675 257,056 276,821
Puducherry 3,494 3,643 3,799 3,961 4,130 4,306 4,489
Southern Region 484,713 517,488 552,551 590,024 630,061 672,837 718,540
Bihar 44,767 48,595 52,748 57,249 62,126 67,411 73,138
Jharkhand 16,266 16,478 16,693 16,910 17,130 17,352 17,577
Odisha 41,704 43,912 46,235 48,675 51,240 53,935 56,768
West Bengal 134,198 145,804 158,381 172,010 186,784 202,798 220,153
Sikkim 589 618 649 681 715 751 789
Eastern Region 237,524 255,407 274,706 295,525 317,995 342,247 368,425
Assam 18,022 19,922 21,968 24,217 26,688 29,403 32,384
Manipur 793 814 834 855 876 898 920
Meghalaya 3,233 3,443 3,666 3,903 4,155 4,423 4,707
Nagaland 975 1,016 1,058 1,103 1,148 1,196 1,246
Tripura 2,040 2,182 2,333 2,494 2,667 2,851 3,047
Mizoram 900 984 1,074 1,174 1,282 1,400 1,529
North Eastern 26,886 29,330 31,950 34,814 37,937 41,348 45,069
Region
Andaman & 399 419 440 462 485 509 534
Nicobar Islands
Lakshadweep 71 75 79 83 87 91 96
All-India 1,753,263 1,860,292 1,974,278 2,095,709 2,225,087 2,362,956 2,509,896
State/Region 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Delhi 37,530 38,161 38,802 39,452 40,113 40,783 41,464
Haryana 141,432 151,900 163,127 175,166 188,074 201,914 216,772
Jammu & Kashmir 31,997 33,293 34,638 36,035 37,483 38,986 40,549
Punjab 96,917 101,204 105,671 110,327 115,179 120,234 125,511
Rajasthan 178,289 190,006 202,474 215,741 229,855 244,870 260,866
Uttar Pradesh 266,265 282,947 300,640 319,403 339,298 360,391 382,795
Uttarakhand 56,027 61,427 67,340 73,814 80,902 88,661 97,164
Chandigarh 2,348 2,408 2,468 2,530 2,593 2,658 2,725
Northern Region 829,143 880,601 935,378 993,697 1,055,787 1,121,902 1,192,422
Goa 4,803 4,844 4,885 4,927 4,968 5,010 5,052
Gujarat 161,885 167,818 173,960 180,317 186,897 193,707 200,765
Chhattisgarh 65,147 70,087 75,393 81,091 87,209 93,777 100,840
Madhya Pradesh 132,516 140,496 148,942 157,880 167,338 177,347 187,955
Maharashtra 242,008 251,936 262,254 272,978 284,122 295,702 307,754
D. & N. Haveli 12,320 12,936 13,583 14,262 14,975 15,724 16,510

State/Region 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Daman & Diu 4,858 5,101 5,356 5,624 5,905 6,200 6,510
Western Region 623,537 653,218 684,373 717,079 751,414 787,467 825,386
Andhra Pradesh 144,308 154,972 166,405 178,660 191,797 205,876 220,988
Telangana 145,011 155,727 167,216 179,531 192,732 206,879 222,065
Karnataka 119,929 125,234 130,765 136,530 142,538 148,800 155,337
Kerala 55,369 58,664 62,148 65,832 69,727 73,845 78,206
Tamil Nadu 298,073 321,774 347,320 374,851 404,519 436,485 470,977
Puducherry 4,679 4,892 5,114 5,346 5,589 5,841 6,104
Southern Region 767,369 821,263 878,968 940,750 1,006,902 1,077,726 1,153,677
Bihar 79,342 86,062 93,340 101,223 109,758 118,999 129,018
Jharkhand 17,804 18,034 18,266 18,502 18,739 18,980 19,224
Odisha 59,744 62,870 66,154 69,604 73,228 77,033 81,036
West Bengal 238,957 259,329 281,396 305,296 331,176 359,196 389,587
Sikkim 828 869 912 958 1,006 1,056 1,108
Eastern Region 396,675 427,164 460,068 495,583 533,907 575,264 619,973
Assam 35,657 39,549 43,854 48,612 53,871 59,680 66,115
Manipur 943 969 997 1,025 1,053 1,083 1,114
Meghalaya 5,009 5,359 5,733 6,132 6,558 7,012 7,497
Nagaland 1,298 1,351 1,407 1,465 1,525 1,588 1,654
Tripura 3,257 3,489 3,736 4,001 4,284 4,587 4,911
Arunachal Pradesh 1,298 1,363 1,431 1,503 1,578 1,657 1,740
Mizoram 1,669 1,822 1,989 2,171 2,370 2,586 2,822
North Eastern
49,131 53,902 59,147 64,909 71,239 78,193 85,853
Region
Andaman &
561 589 618 649 681 715 751
Nicobar Islands
Lakshadweep 101 106 111 117 123 129 135
All-India 2,666,517 2,836,843 3,018,663 3,212,784 3,420,053 3,641,396 3,878,197
Table A5.9: CAGR of Forecasted Total Electrical Energy Requirement (SUR Model Optimistic)
FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 2036-37
Delhi 1.65 1.7 1.67 1.68 1.68
Haryana 7.25 7.47 7.36 7.4 7.38
Jammu & Kashmir 4.3 4.21 4.25 4.05 4.15
Punjab 4.37 4.49 4.43 4.42 4.42
Rajasthan 6.41 6.63 6.52 6.57 6.54
Uttar Pradesh 6.19 6.36 6.28 6.26 6.27
Uttarakhand 9.79 9.77 9.78 9.63 9.71
Chandigarh 2.48 2.56 2.52 2.52 2.52
Northern Region 5.82 6.1 5.96 6.21 6.09
Goa 0.83 0.86 0.84 0.85 0.85
Gujarat 3.25 3.55 3.4 3.6 3.5

FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 2036-37
Chhattisgarh 6.34 7.24 6.79 7.41 7.1
Madhya Pradesh 5.1 5.78 5.44 5.9 5.67
Maharashtra 3.6 3.98 3.79 4.04 3.91
D. & N. Haveli 5 5 5 5 5
Daman & Diu 5 5 5 5 5
Western Region 4 4.5 4.25 4.68 4.46
Andhra Pradesh 6.67 7.25 6.96 7.3 7.13
Telangana 6.67 7.25 6.96 7.3 7.13
Karnataka 3.85 4.29 4.07 4.35 4.21
Kerala 5.62 5.94 5.78 5.91 5.85
Tamil Nadu 7.05 7.74 7.4 7.83 7.61
Puducherry 3.61 4.27 3.94 4.42 4.18
Southern Region 6.11 6.76 6.44 6.94 6.69
Bihar 8.28 8.55 8.41 8.46 8.44
Jharkhand 1.26 1.3 1.28 1.29 1.29
Odisha 5.11 5.29 5.2 5.23 5.22
West Bengal 8.39 8.65 8.52 8.52 8.52
Sikkim 4.97 4.98 4.98 4.99 4.98
Eastern Region 7.07 7.53 7.3 7.69 7.49
Assam 9.66 10.58 10.12 10.57 10.34
Manipur 2.37 2.66 2.51 2.68 2.6
Meghalaya 5.38 6.5 5.94 6.75 6.34
Nagaland 4.03 4.2 4.11 4.13 4.12
Tripura 6.39 6.93 6.66 7.01 6.83
Mizoram 9.24 9.29 9.27 9.17 9.22
Andaman & 4.97 5 4.99 4.98 4.98
Nicobar
Islands
Lakshadweep 5.39 5.01 5.2 4.98 5.09
All-India 5.57 6.1 5.84 6.35 6.09
Table A5.10: Forecasted Total Electrical Energy Requirement (SUR Model Pessimistic) in MUs
State/Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delhi 29,737 30,166 30,595 31,029 31,469 31,915 32,367
Haryana 52,214 55,498 58,939 62,590 66,466 70,579 74,944
Jammu & Kashmir 17,979 18,604 19,225 19,856 20,495 21,142 21,795
Punjab 52,795 54,712 56,653 58,655 60,719 62,847 65,040
Rajasthan 73,428 77,481 81,695 86,138 90,823 95,761 100,967
Uttar Pradesh 113,462 119,293 125,285 131,554 138,112 144,969 152,136
Uttarakhand 15,233 16,583 18,025 19,581 21,258 23,065 25,013

State/Region 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Chandigarh 1,657 1,691 1,725 1,760 1,796 1,832 1,868
Northern Region 365,767 383,753 402,353 421,885 442,396 463,931 486,542
Goa 4,268 4,298 4,328 4,358 4,388 4,419 4,450
Gujarat 100,834 103,604 106,397 109,257 112,185 115,491 118,885
Chhattisgarh 25,587 26,881 28,212 29,610 31,076 32,852 34,729
Madhya Pradesh 62,412 64,958 67,555 70,256 73,065 76,395 79,875
Maharashtra 142,771 146,988 151,252 155,639 160,153 165,267 170,544
D. & N. Haveli 6,221 6,532 6,859 7,202 7,562 7,940 8,337
Daman & Diu 2,454 2,577 2,706 2,841 2,983 3,132 3,289
Western Region 344,547 355,838 367,309 379,163 391,412 405,496 420,109
Andhra Pradesh 55,733 58,797 61,971 65,316 68,843 72,822 77,032
Telangana 56,005 59,083 62,273 65,634 69,178 73,177 77,407
Karnataka 68,091 70,200 72,330 74,524 76,784 79,369 82,040
Kerala 25,106 26,262 27,446 28,680 29,967 31,356 32,806
Tamil Nadu 108,565 114,928 121,546 128,540 135,931 144,462 153,523
Puducherry 2,691 2,765 2,840 2,917 2,995 3,094 3,196
Southern Region 316,191 332,035 348,406 365,611 383,698 404,280 426,004
Bihar 25,522 27,349 29,279 31,343 33,553 35,917 38,447
Jharkhand 14,890 15,050 15,209 15,369 15,532 15,696 15,861
Odisha 29,307 30,568 31,859 33,203 34,603 36,059 37,575
West Bengal 75,955 81,255 86,804 92,716 99,013 105,717 112,854
Sikkim 419 440 462 485 509 534 561
Eastern Region 146,093 154,662 163,613 173,116 183,210 193,923 205,298
Assam 9,237 9,864 10,490 11,137 11,802 12,662 13,556
Manipur 667 677 685 693 700 712 723
Meghalaya 2,192 2,277 2,363 2,451 2,543 2,664 2,791
Nagaland 737 762 788 815 843 871 901
Tripura 1,309 1,379 1,452 1,528 1,609 1,700 1,796
Mizoram 484 524 567 613 662 715 772
North Eastern 15,282 16,172 17,068 17,996 18,956 20,161 21,418
Region
Andaman & 284 298 313 329 345 362 380
Nicobar Islands
Lakshadweep 50 53 56 59 62 65 68
All-India 1,188,214 1,242,811 1,299,118 1,358,159 1,420,079 1,488,218 1,559,819
State/Region 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Delhi 32,825 33,290 33,760 34,236 34,718 35,206 35,700
Haryana 79,575 84,491 89,706 95,230 101,086 107,292 113,866
Jammu & Kashmir 22,453 23,113 23,775 24,452 25,147 25,858 26,587
Punjab 67,298 69,625 72,020 74,490 77,040 79,670 82,384
Rajasthan 106,456 112,242 118,342 124,763 131,521 138,633 146,115

State/Region 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Uttar Pradesh 159,626 167,450 175,619 184,168 193,115 202,474 212,261
Uttarakhand 27,111 29,371 31,804 34,434 37,278 40,354 43,678
Chandigarh 1,906 1,943 1,982 2,021 2,060 2,101 2,142
Northern Region 510,283 535,210 561,377 588,881 617,806 648,221 680,198
Goa 4,481 4,512 4,543 4,575 4,606 4,638 4,670
Gujarat 122,371 125,949 129,624 133,399 137,278 141,262 145,355
Chhattisgarh 36,713 38,810 41,027 43,365 45,832 48,434 51,177
Madhya Pradesh 83,515 87,320 91,299 95,444 99,769 104,281 108,986
Maharashtra 175,988 181,606 187,403 193,367 199,511 205,837 212,349
D. & N. Haveli 8,754 9,192 9,652 10,135 10,642 11,174 11,733
Daman & Diu 3,453 3,626 3,807 3,997 4,197 4,407 4,627
Western Region 435,275 451,015 467,355 484,282 501,835 520,033 538,897
Andhra Pradesh 81,485 86,195 91,178 96,436 101,989 107,849 114,031
Telangana 81,882 86,615 91,622 96,906 102,486 108,374 114,587
Karnataka 84,801 87,653 90,601 93,640 96,775 100,007 103,340
Kerala 34,319 35,898 37,545 39,262 41,055 42,925 44,876
Tamil Nadu 163,145 173,364 184,216 195,721 207,925 220,864 234,582
Puducherry 3,301 3,410 3,522 3,638 3,757 3,880 4,006
Southern Region 448,933 473,135 498,684 525,603 553,987 583,899 615,422
Bihar 41,154 44,051 47,151 50,462 54,001 57,781 61,819
Jharkhand 16,029 16,198 16,369 16,541 16,715 16,890 17,067
Odisha 39,153 40,795 42,503 44,279 46,126 48,046 50,041
West Bengal 120,449 128,529 137,124 146,258 155,981 166,326 177,331
Sikkim 589 618 649 681 715 751 789
Eastern Region 217,374 230,191 243,796 258,221 273,538 289,794 307,047
Assam 14,483 15,436 16,413 17,445 18,538 19,693 20,914
Manipur 733 743 751 760 769 777 786
Meghalaya 2,923 3,061 3,205 3,356 3,512 3,676 3,847
Nagaland 931 963 995 1,029 1,064 1,100 1,137
Tripura 1,898 2,006 2,119 2,239 2,365 2,497 2,638
Mizoram 833 899 969 1,045 1,127 1,215 1,309
North Eastern 22,724 24,077 25,469 26,942 28,496 30,135 31,867
Region
Andaman & 399 419 440 462 485 509 534
Nicobar Islands
Lakshadweep 71 75 79 83 87 91 96
All-India 1,635,059 1,714,122 1,797,200 1,884,474 1,976,234 2,072,682 2,174,061
State/Region 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Delhi 36,200 36,707 37,219 37,738 38,263 38,795 39,334
Haryana 120,831 128,210 136,024 144,300 153,064 162,343 172,185
Jammu & Kashmir 27,334 28,099 28,883 29,684 30,506 31,347 32,211

State/Region 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Punjab 85,183 88,069 91,046 94,115 97,280 100,542 103,913
Rajasthan 153,987 162,267 170,976 180,135 189,766 199,893 210,560
Uttar Pradesh 222,495 233,196 244,383 256,076 268,296 281,067 294,446
Uttarakhand 47,270 51,153 55,348 59,881 64,778 70,067 75,788
Chandigarh 2,184 2,226 2,269 2,313 2,358 2,403 2,449
Northern Region 713,822 749,182 786,366 825,471 866,601 909,862 955,462
Goa 4,702 4,735 4,767 4,800 4,833 4,866 4,899
Gujarat 149,558 154,095 158,762 163,561 168,497 173,572 178,800
Chhattisgarh 54,070 57,341 60,803 64,466 68,342 72,442 76,788
Madhya Pradesh 113,891 119,349 125,055 131,021 137,258 143,777 150,606
Maharashtra 219,054 226,298 233,765 241,464 249,400 257,579 266,026
D. & N. Haveli 12,320 12,936 13,583 14,262 14,975 15,724 16,510
Daman & Diu 4,858 5,101 5,356 5,624 5,905 6,200 6,510
Western Region 558,453 579,855 602,091 625,198 649,210 674,160 700,139
Andhra Pradesh 120,555 127,681 135,212 143,170 151,579 160,463 169,866
Telangana 121,142 128,303 135,871 143,868 152,318 161,245 170,694
Karnataka 106,776 110,508 114,361 118,340 122,448 126,689 131,077
Kerala 46,910 49,071 51,326 53,679 56,133 58,694 61,372
Tamil Nadu 249,122 265,238 282,362 300,557 319,887 340,419 362,269
Puducherry 4,136 4,284 4,436 4,594 4,757 4,925 5,099
Southern Region 648,641 685,085 723,568 764,208 807,122 852,435 900,377
Bihar 66,131 70,735 75,651 80,898 86,500 92,478 98,869
Jharkhand 17,245 17,425 17,606 17,789 17,973 18,159 18,347
Odisha 52,115 54,269 56,508 58,834 61,250 63,759 66,371
West Bengal 189,034 201,480 214,712 228,779 243,729 259,615 276,536
Sikkim 828 869 912 958 1,006 1,056 1,108
Eastern Region 325,353 344,778 365,389 387,258 410,458 435,067 461,231
Assam 22,204 23,747 25,389 27,136 28,994 30,969 33,079
Manipur 795 806 818 830 842 854 866
Meghalaya 4,025 4,234 4,453 4,683 4,925 5,177 5,442
Nagaland 1,175 1,214 1,254 1,296 1,339 1,383 1,428
Tripura 2,785 2,947 3,118 3,299 3,490 3,692 3,906
Arunachal Pradesh 1,298 1,363 1,431 1,503 1,578 1,657 1,740
Mizoram 1,411 1,521 1,639 1,766 1,902 2,049 2,207
North Eastern 33,693 35,832 38,102 40,513 43,070 45,781 48,668
Region
Andaman & 561 589 618 649 681 715 751
Nicobar Islands
Lakshadweep 101 106 111 117 123 129 135
All-India 2,280,624 2,395,427 2,516,245 2,643,414 2,777,265 2,918,149 3,066,763

Table A5.10: CAGR of Forecasted Total Electrical Energy Requirement (SUR Model Pessimistic)
FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Delhi 1.42 1.41 1.42 1.4 1.41
Haryana 6.21 6.17 6.19 6.1 6.15
Jammu & Kashmir 3.29 2.95 3.12 2.79 2.96
Punjab 3.55 3.46 3.5 3.38 3.44
Rajasthan 5.45 5.43 5.44 5.37 5.41
Uttar Pradesh 5.02 4.9 4.96 4.8 4.88
Uttarakhand 8.65 8.34 8.5 8.21 8.35
Chandigarh 2.03 1.98 2.01 1.94 1.97
Northern Region 4.87 4.89 4.88 4.96 4.92
Goa 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.69 0.69
Gujarat 2.75 2.93 2.84 2.97 2.91
Chhattisgarh 5.13 5.71 5.42 5.88 5.65
Madhya Pradesh 4.13 4.55 4.34 4.67 4.5
Maharashtra 2.97 3.19 3.08 3.24 3.16
D. & N. Haveli 5 5 5 5 5
Daman & Diu 5 5 5 5 5
Western Region 3.31 3.61 3.46 3.75 3.61
Andhra Pradesh 5.49 5.78 5.64 5.82 5.73
Telangana 5.49 5.78 5.64 5.82 5.73
Karnataka 3.11 3.36 3.24 3.42 3.33
Kerala 4.55 4.6 4.57 4.57 4.57
Tamil Nadu 5.88 6.26 6.07 6.35 6.21
Puducherry 2.83 3.29 3.06 3.43 3.25
Southern Region 5.04 5.39 5.21 5.53 5.37
Bihar 7.07 7.04 7.05 6.96 7.01
Jharkhand 1.06 1.05 1.06 1.04 1.05
Odisha 4.23 4.19 4.21 4.13 4.17
West Bengal 6.84 6.71 6.77 6.58 6.67
Sikkim 4.97 4.98 4.98 4.99 4.98
Eastern Region 5.83 5.89 5.86 5.97 5.92
Assam 6.51 6.62 6.56 6.61 6.59
Manipur 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31
Meghalaya 3.98 4.73 4.35 4.95 4.65
Nagaland 3.4 3.39 3.39 3.33 3.36
Tripura 5.37 5.66 5.51 5.72 5.62
Mizoram 8.12 7.89 8 7.76 7.88
Andaman & Nicobar 4.97 5 4.99 4.98 4.98
Islands
Lakshadweep 5.39 5.01 5.2 4.98 5.09
All-India 4.61 4.83 4.72 4.99 4.86

Table A5.11: Forecasted Peak Electricity Demand (SUR Model Baseline) in MW
State 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delhi 5,622 5,745 5,885 6,034 6,190 6,350 6,514
Haryana 9,578 10,191 10,924 11,738 12,633 13,596 14,631
Jammu & Kashmir 2,840 2,958 3,106 3,268 3,443 3,624 3,812
Punjab 11,178 11,458 11,793 12,153 12,535 12,927 13,330
Rajasthan 11,791 12,402 13,129 13,927 14,795 15,716 16,695
Uttar Pradesh 16,623 17,525 18,635 19,870 21,223 22,663 24,197
Uttarakhand 2,295 2,456 2,644 2,851 3,077 3,319 3,579
Chandigarh 348 363 381 401 422 444 468
Goa 560 582 607 635 664 695 728
Gujarat 14,549 14,909 15,329 15,776 16,247 16,771 17,312
Chhattisgarh 4,200 4,385 4,612 4,863 5,136 5,459 5,802
Madhya Pradesh 10,956 11,428 12,009 12,650 13,347 14,163 15,028
Maharashtra 21,170 21,600 22,109 22,654 23,229 23,864 24,518
D. & N. Haveli 790 830 872 916 962 1,010 1,061
Daman & Diu 320 336 353 371 390 410 431
Andhra Pradesh 7,489 7,837 8,262 8,727 9,236 9,803 10,405
Telangana 8,604 9,004 9,491 10,027 10,610 11,262 11,953
Karnataka 11,016 11,302 11,647 12,021 12,420 12,866 13,328
Kerala 4,125 4,269 4,444 4,635 4,840 5,059 5,288
Tamil Nadu 15,487 16,199 17,055 17,994 19,012 20,166 21,389
Puducherry 411 425 441 460 480 505 531
Bihar 3,847 4,131 4,474 4,860 5,289 5,755 6,263
Jharkhand 2,200 2,265 2,340 2,421 2,507 2,597 2,689
Odisha 4,373 4,541 4,742 4,961 5,196 5,442 5,699
West Bengal 11,847 12,639 13,623 14,733 15,966 17,299 18,740
Sikkim 119 125 131 138 145 152 160
Assam 1,508 1,598 1,724 1,868 2,031 2,231 2,447
Manipur 135 137 139 142 145 149 153
Meghalaya 427 445 468 495 525 562 602
Nagaland 134 138 142 147 151 156 161
Tripura 259 265 272 280 287 296 305
Mizoram 92 95 98 101 105 108 112
Andaman & 40 42 44 46 48 50 53
Nicobar Islands
All India 163,148 170,644 179,732 189,774 200,728 212,828 225,710

State 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Delhi 6,678 6,843 7,009 7,178 7,348 7,520 7,693
Haryana 15,719 16,859 18,067 19,344 20,692 22,114 23,612
Jammu & Kashmir 3,999 4,183 4,368 4,556 4,746 4,940 5,136
Punjab 13,732 14,131 14,534 14,940 15,350 15,763 16,178
Rajasthan 17,710 18,759 19,857 21,003 22,198 23,442 24,735
Uttar Pradesh 25,779 27,405 29,098 30,864 32,700 34,608 36,587
Uttarakhand 3,852 4,139 4,442 4,763 5,104 5,465 5,847
Chandigarh 492 517 542 568 594 622 650
Goa 760 794 829 864 900 938 976
Gujarat 17,855 18,401 18,955 19,518 20,090 20,670 21,258
Chhattisgarh 6,156 6,521 6,902 7,299 7,711 8,139 8,582
Madhya Pradesh 15,921 16,838 17,795 18,787 19,817 20,885 21,989
Maharashtra 25,171 25,824 26,484 27,150 27,821 28,498 29,180
D. & N. Haveli 1,114 1,170 1,229 1,290 1,355 1,423 1,494
Daman & Diu 453 476 500 525 551 579 608
Andhra Pradesh 11,025 11,666 12,334 13,029 13,751 14,502 15,279
Telangana 12,667 13,403 14,170 14,969 15,799 16,660 17,553
Karnataka 13,793 14,260 14,735 15,218 15,707 16,203 16,705
Kerala 5,520 5,754 5,994 6,239 6,489 6,745 7,005
Tamil Nadu 22,654 23,957 25,317 26,731 28,202 29,729 31,313
Puducherry 557 583 611 639 668 698 728
Bihar 6,803 7,374 7,986 8,639 9,335 10,076 10,865
Jharkhand 2,782 2,876 2,972 3,069 3,168 3,269 3,371
Odisha 5,961 6,227 6,500 6,781 7,069 7,364 7,666
West Bengal 20,251 21,829 23,498 25,263 27,125 29,087 31,150
Sikkim 168 176 185 194 204 214 225
Assam 2,667 2,888 3,115 3,352 3,598 3,852 4,115
Manipur 156 159 162 165 168 171 173
Meghalaya 643 685 729 774 821 870 921
Nagaland 167 172 177 182 188 193 199
Tripura 314 323 332 341 350 360 369
Mizoram 115 119 122 126 130 134 138
Andaman & 56 59 62 65 68 71 75
Nicobar Islands
All India 239,058 252,852 267,280 282,361 298,105 314,527 331,636

State 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Delhi 7,868 8,047 8,229 8,416 8,606 8,800 8,998
Haryana 25,188 26,867 28,654 30,558 32,584 34,742 37,043
Jammu & Kashmir 5,334 5,539 5,751 5,970 6,197 6,432 6,676
Punjab 16,597 17,024 17,462 17,910 18,369 18,838 19,319
Rajasthan 26,080 27,495 28,985 30,552 32,202 33,937 35,765
Uttar Pradesh 38,638 40,798 43,074 45,471 47,997 50,656 53,462
Uttarakhand 6,251 6,683 7,143 7,634 8,159 8,718 9,315
Chandigarh 679 708 740 772 806 841 878
Goa 1,015 1,056 1,098 1,142 1,187 1,235 1,285
Gujarat 21,853 22,493 23,151 23,828 24,522 25,236 25,971
Chhattisgarh 9,041 9,557 10,100 10,673 11,278 11,916 12,590
Madhya Pradesh 23,131 24,403 25,742 27,153 28,638 30,200 31,847
Maharashtra 29,867 30,600 31,350 32,117 32,901 33,703 34,525
D. & N. Haveli 1,569 1,647 1,729 1,815 1,906 2,001 2,101
Daman & Diu 638 670 704 739 776 815 856
Andhra Pradesh 16,083 16,957 17,875 18,841 19,858 20,928 22,056
Telangana 18,477 19,481 20,536 21,647 22,814 24,043 25,339
Karnataka 17,214 17,762 18,326 18,907 19,506 20,122 20,757
Kerala 7,270 7,550 7,839 8,139 8,450 8,772 9,106
Tamil Nadu 32,955 34,753 36,645 38,638 40,734 42,941 45,268
Puducherry 759 794 831 870 910 952 996
Bihar 11,703 12,604 13,572 14,613 15,732 16,935 18,230
Jharkhand 3,475 3,582 3,691 3,804 3,920 4,040 4,164
Odisha 7,974 8,295 8,627 8,972 9,331 9,702 10,088
West Bengal 33,316 35,628 38,095 40,727 43,535 46,530 49,731
Sikkim 236 248 260 273 287 301 316
Assam 4,386 4,704 5,044 5,408 5,796 6,210 6,654
Manipur 175 178 182 185 188 191 194
Meghalaya 973 1,034 1,099 1,168 1,241 1,318 1,400
Nagaland 204 210 216 222 228 235 242
Tripura 379 389 399 410 421 432 443
Mizoram 142 146 150 154 159 163 167
Andaman & 79 83 87 91 96 101 106
Nicobar Islands
All India 349,441 368,683 389,034 410,560 433,331 457,418 482,950

Table A5.11: CAGR of Forecasted Peak Electricity Demand (SUR Model Baseline)

FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Delhi 2.47 2.48 2.47 2.29 2.38
Haryana 7.26 7.31 7.28 6.71 7
Jammu & Kashmir 5 4.68 4.84 3.89 4.37
Punjab 2.95 2.94 2.94 2.6 2.77
Rajasthan 5.92 5.97 5.94 5.47 5.7
Uttar Pradesh 6.4 6.37 6.38 5.65 6.01
Uttarakhand 7.66 7.49 7.57 6.94 7.26
Chandigarh 4.99 5.05 5.02 4.45 4.74
Goa 4.41 4.45 4.43 4.05 4.24
Gujarat 2.88 3.08 2.98 2.9 2.94
Chhattisgarh 5.38 5.98 5.68 5.6 5.64
Madhya Pradesh 5.27 5.81 5.54 5.42 5.48
Maharashtra 2.42 2.61 2.52 2.43 2.48
D. & N. Haveli 5.04 5.02 5.03 5 5.01
Daman & Diu 5.08 5.07 5.08 5.01 5.04
Andhra Pradesh 5.53 5.85 5.69 5.41 5.55
Telangana 5.53 5.86 5.69 5.4 5.55
Karnataka 3.15 3.41 3.28 3.15 3.22
Kerala 4.17 4.28 4.22 3.85 4.04
Tamil Nadu 5.42 5.8 5.61 5.41 5.51
Puducherry 4.21 4.82 4.51 4.54 4.53
Bihar 8.39 8.46 8.43 7.75 8.09
Jharkhand 3.37 3.4 3.38 3.1 3.24
Odisha 4.47 4.5 4.48 4.05 4.27
West Bengal 7.87 7.87 7.87 7.01 7.44
Sikkim 5.02 5 5.01 5 5
Assam 8.15 8.48 8.32 7.1 7.7
Manipur 1.99 2.06 2.03 1.63 1.83
Meghalaya 5.65 6.61 6.13 6.11 6.12
Nagaland 3.09 3.13 3.11 2.89 3
Tripura 2.71 2.87 2.79 2.65 2.72
Mizoram 3.26 3.13 3.19 2.86 3.03
Andaman & Nicobar 4.56 5.39 4.97 5.01 4.99
Islands
All-India 5.46 5.82 5.64 5.51 5.58

Table A5.12: Forecasted Peak Electricity Demand (SUR Model Optimistic) in MW
State 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delhi 5,622 5,745 5,893 6,046 6,202 6,363 6,527
Haryana 9,578 10,191 10,969 11,806 12,706 13,673 14,715
Jammu & Kashmir 2,840 2,958 3,121 3,290 3,466 3,648 3,838
Punjab 11,178 11,458 11,820 12,192 12,575 12,968 13,373
Rajasthan 11,791 12,402 13,175 13,996 14,868 15,794 16,777
Uttar Pradesh 16,623 17,525 18,726 20,005 21,367 22,817 24,361
Uttarakhand 2,295 2,456 2,653 2,865 3,092 3,335 3,596
Chandigarh 348 363 382 403 424 447 471
Goa 560 582 609 637 667 698 730
Gujarat 14,549 14,909 15,357 15,816 16,289 16,814 17,356
Chhattisgarh 4,200 4,385 4,631 4,891 5,166 5,491 5,836
Madhya Pradesh 10,956 11,428 12,058 12,722 13,424 14,244 15,114
Maharashtra 21,170 21,600 22,148 22,710 23,286 23,923 24,578
D. & N. Haveli 790 830 872 916 962 1,010 1,061
Daman & Diu 320 336 353 371 390 410 431
Andhra Pradesh 7,489 7,837 8,294 8,776 9,286 9,856 10,461
Telangana 8,604 9,004 9,529 10,082 10,668 11,323 12,018
Karnataka 11,016 11,302 11,676 12,063 12,463 12,911 13,375
Kerala 4,125 4,269 4,459 4,656 4,862 5,082 5,312
Tamil Nadu 15,487 16,199 17,116 18,085 19,108 20,268 21,498
Puducherry 411 425 443 463 483 507 533
Bihar 3,847 4,131 4,495 4,892 5,324 5,794 6,305
Jharkhand 2,200 2,265 2,345 2,429 2,515 2,605 2,697
Odisha 4,373 4,541 4,757 4,982 5,219 5,466 5,724
West Bengal 11,847 12,639 13,702 14,851 16,094 17,438 18,891
Sikkim 119 125 131 138 145 152 160
Assam 1,508 1,598 1,742 1,896 2,061 2,265 2,484
Manipur 135 137 140 143 146 150 154
Meghalaya 427 445 471 499 529 567 607
Nagaland 134 138 142 147 152 157 162
Tripura 259 265 273 280 288 297 306
Mizoram 92 95 98 101 105 108 112
Andaman & 40 42 44 46 48 50 53
Nicobar Islands
All India 163,148 170,644 180,410 190,782 201,801 213,972 226,932

State 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Delhi 6,695 6,868 7,045 7,226 7,412 7,602 7,797
Haryana 15,834 17,039 18,334 19,726 21,222 22,829 24,554
Jammu & Kashmir 4,033 4,235 4,444 4,661 4,889 5,127 5,376
Punjab 13,788 14,215 14,654 15,105 15,570 16,048 16,540
Rajasthan 17,822 18,932 20,110 21,361 22,687 24,093 25,585
Uttar Pradesh 26,004 27,751 29,610 31,588 33,694 35,936 38,324
Uttarakhand 3,876 4,176 4,497 4,843 5,215 5,615 6,046
Chandigarh 496 522 549 578 608 640 674
Goa 764 800 837 876 917 959 1,003
Gujarat 17,914 18,488 19,080 19,690 20,319 20,967 21,635
Chhattisgarh 6,202 6,592 7,006 7,445 7,911 8,406 8,930
Madhya Pradesh 16,038 17,018 18,058 19,158 20,324 21,559 22,867
Maharashtra 25,251 25,942 26,652 27,379 28,126 28,891 29,676
D. & N. Haveli 1,114 1,170 1,229 1,290 1,355 1,423 1,494
Daman & Diu 453 476 500 525 551 579 608
Andhra Pradesh 11,103 11,785 12,508 13,276 14,089 14,950 15,862
Telangana 12,755 13,540 14,371 15,253 16,186 17,176 18,223
Karnataka 13,855 14,353 14,868 15,401 15,952 16,521 17,110
Kerala 5,552 5,803 6,064 6,336 6,620 6,916 7,225
Tamil Nadu 22,801 24,183 25,648 27,200 28,843 30,583 32,425
Puducherry 560 589 619 651 684 718 755
Bihar 6,862 7,466 8,125 8,839 9,616 10,460 11,376
Jharkhand 2,793 2,893 2,995 3,102 3,212 3,326 3,443
Odisha 5,995 6,278 6,574 6,883 7,206 7,544 7,898
West Bengal 20,461 22,157 23,989 25,967 28,105 30,415 32,909
Sikkim 168 176 185 194 204 214 225
Assam 2,718 2,970 3,237 3,527 3,843 4,185 4,557
Manipur 157 161 165 168 172 176 180
Meghalaya 650 696 745 797 853 912 976
Nagaland 167 173 178 184 190 196 203
Tripura 315 324 334 344 354 365 375
Mizoram 115 119 123 127 131 135 140
Andaman & 56 59 62 65 68 71 75
Nicobar Islands
All India 240,732 255,427 271,078 287,751 305,515 324,445 344,621

State 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Delhi 7,996 8,200 8,410 8,624 8,843 9,068 9,299
Haryana 26,408 28,399 30,536 32,831 35,295 37,941 40,785
Jammu & Kashmir 5,637 5,909 6,194 6,492 6,804 7,129 7,470
Punjab 17,046 17,566 18,101 18,651 19,217 19,799 20,399
Rajasthan 27,166 28,843 30,620 32,504 34,501 36,617 38,863
Uttar Pradesh 40,865 43,569 46,446 49,508 52,765 56,229 59,920
Uttarakhand 6,508 7,006 7,540 8,115 8,733 9,397 10,111
Chandigarh 709 746 785 825 868 913 960
Goa 1,050 1,098 1,148 1,201 1,256 1,314 1,375
Gujarat 22,323 23,061 23,823 24,609 25,420 26,256 27,119
Chhattisgarh 9,487 10,111 10,775 11,482 12,233 13,033 13,885
Madhya Pradesh 24,251 25,795 27,434 29,174 31,022 32,983 35,068
Maharashtra 30,482 31,340 32,221 33,125 34,054 35,006 35,985
D. & N. Haveli 1,569 1,647 1,729 1,815 1,906 2,001 2,101
Daman & Diu 638 670 704 739 776 815 856
Andhra Pradesh 16,828 17,881 18,998 20,183 21,438 22,771 24,187
Telangana 19,334 20,544 21,827 23,188 24,630 26,160 27,787
Karnataka 17,719 18,375 19,054 19,757 20,484 21,237 22,018
Kerala 7,547 7,888 8,243 8,614 9,001 9,404 9,825
Tamil Nadu 34,374 36,514 38,784 41,192 43,744 46,451 49,326
Puducherry 793 836 881 929 979 1,032 1,088
Bihar 12,371 13,451 14,624 15,898 17,280 18,780 20,410
Jharkhand 3,565 3,690 3,820 3,954 4,093 4,236 4,384
Odisha 8,267 8,653 9,056 9,477 9,916 10,376 10,857
West Bengal 35,604 38,513 41,654 45,045 48,706 52,656 56,926
Sikkim 236 248 260 273 287 301 316
Assam 4,961 5,435 5,954 6,520 7,137 7,812 8,551
Manipur 184 188 193 198 203 208 213
Meghalaya 1,044 1,123 1,208 1,300 1,398 1,503 1,616
Nagaland 209 216 223 230 237 245 253
Tripura 387 398 411 423 436 449 462
Mizoram 144 149 154 159 164 169 174
Andaman & 79 83 87 91 96 101 106
Nicobar Islands
All India 366,126 389,512 414,477 441,131 469,590 499,981 532,495

Table A5.12: CAGR of Forecasted Peak Electricity Demand (SUR Model Optimistic)

FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Delhi 2.51 2.58 2.54 2.55 2.55
Haryana 7.38 7.61 7.49 7.53 7.51
Jammu & Kashmir 5.13 5.02 5.08 4.83 4.95
Punjab 3.02 3.1 3.06 3.05 3.05
Rajasthan 6.02 6.22 6.12 6.17 6.14
Uttar Pradesh 6.54 6.72 6.63 6.61 6.62
Uttarakhand 7.76 7.75 7.75 7.64 7.7
Chandigarh 5.13 5.27 5.2 5.2 5.2
Goa 4.5 4.65 4.58 4.61 4.59
Gujarat 2.94 3.21 3.07 3.25 3.16
Chhattisgarh 5.51 6.28 5.89 6.43 6.16
Madhya Pradesh 5.39 6.11 5.75 6.23 5.99
Maharashtra 2.48 2.74 2.61 2.77 2.69
D. & N. Haveli 5.04 5.02 5.03 5 5.01
Daman & Diu 5.08 5.07 5.08 5.01 5.04
Andhra Pradesh 5.65 6.14 5.89 6.18 6.04
Telangana 5.65 6.14 5.89 6.18 6.04
Karnataka 3.23 3.59 3.41 3.64 3.52
Kerala 4.26 4.51 4.39 4.48 4.43
Tamil Nadu 5.53 6.06 5.79 6.13 5.96
Puducherry 4.29 5.13 4.71 5.27 4.99
Bihar 8.54 8.81 8.67 8.73 8.7
Jharkhand 3.44 3.55 3.5 3.52 3.51
Odisha 4.56 4.72 4.64 4.66 4.65
West Bengal 8.04 8.29 8.16 8.17 8.16
Sikkim 5.02 5 5.01 5 5
Assam 8.48 9.26 8.87 9.26 9.06
Manipur 2.13 2.29 2.21 2.4 2.31
Meghalaya 5.84 7.05 6.44 7.32 6.88
Nagaland 3.22 3.22 3.22 3.24 3.23
Tripura 2.78 2.98 2.88 2.99 2.94
Mizoram 3.26 3.29 3.28 3.2 3.24
Andaman & Nicobar 4.56 5.39 4.97 5.01 4.99
Islands
All-India 5.57 6.1 5.84 6.35 6.09

Table A5.13: Forecasted Peak Electricity Demand (SUR Model Pessimistic) in MW
State 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delhi 5,622 5,745 5,869 5,995 6,125 6,257 6,391
Haryana 9,578 10,191 10,835 11,519 12,245 13,016 13,836
Jammu & Kashmir 2,840 2,958 3,076 3,196 3,319 3,444 3,571
Punjab 11,178 11,458 11,739 12,025 12,318 12,616 12,920
Rajasthan 11,791 12,402 13,036 13,702 14,402 15,138 15,911
Uttar Pradesh 16,623 17,525 18,455 19,430 20,452 21,524 22,648
Uttarakhand 2,295 2,456 2,626 2,806 2,996 3,198 3,413
Chandigarh 348 363 378 394 410 427 444
Goa 560 582 604 626 650 674 700
Gujarat 14,549 14,909 15,272 15,643 16,022 16,448 16,885
Chhattisgarh 4,200 4,385 4,574 4,771 4,976 5,223 5,482
Madhya Pradesh 10,956 11,428 11,911 12,414 12,938 13,561 14,214
Maharashtra 21,170 21,600 22,031 22,471 22,919 23,422 23,936
D. & N. Haveli 790 830 872 916 962 1,010 1,061
Daman & Diu 320 336 353 371 390 410 431
Andhra Pradesh 7,489 7,837 8,196 8,571 8,963 9,404 9,864
Telangana 8,604 9,004 9,417 9,848 10,298 10,803 11,333
Karnataka 11,016 11,302 11,589 11,884 12,185 12,529 12,882
Kerala 4,125 4,269 4,415 4,566 4,722 4,888 5,060
Tamil Nadu 15,487 16,199 16,931 17,696 18,494 19,405 20,359
Puducherry 411 425 438 452 467 485 504
Bihar 3,847 4,131 4,431 4,753 5,099 5,469 5,866
Jharkhand 2,200 2,265 2,330 2,397 2,466 2,537 2,610
Odisha 4,373 4,541 4,712 4,890 5,073 5,264 5,461
West Bengal 11,847 12,639 13,467 14,346 15,281 16,273 17,326
Sikkim 119 125 131 138 145 152 160
Assam 1,508 1,598 1,687 1,778 1,872 1,991 2,115
Manipur 135 137 138 139 141 143 145
Meghalaya 427 445 463 482 501 527 554
Nagaland 134 138 142 145 149 153 157
Tripura 259 265 271 277 284 291 298
Mizoram 92 95 98 100 103 106 109
Andaman & 40 42 44 46 48 50 53
Nicobar Islands
All India 163,148 170,644 178,375 186,482 194,984 204,340 214,171

State 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Delhi 6,529 6,669 6,812 6,958 7,107 7,258 7,413
Haryana 14,707 15,632 16,615 17,657 18,762 19,935 21,179
Jammu & Kashmir 3,699 3,829 3,960 4,094 4,233 4,376 4,523
Punjab 13,230 13,547 13,869 14,197 14,533 14,876 15,226
Rajasthan 16,723 17,577 18,474 19,416 20,404 21,440 22,527
Uttar Pradesh 23,825 25,058 26,349 27,703 29,124 30,614 32,177
Uttarakhand 3,640 3,881 4,136 4,408 4,697 5,005 5,332
Chandigarh 463 482 501 522 543 565 587
Goa 726 753 781 810 841 872 904
Gujarat 17,332 17,790 18,258 18,739 19,231 19,735 20,251
Chhattisgarh 5,754 6,040 6,339 6,653 6,982 7,326 7,687
Madhya Pradesh 14,898 15,615 16,367 17,152 17,974 18,833 19,730
Maharashtra 24,461 24,998 25,546 26,105 26,675 27,257 27,850
D. & N. Haveli 1,114 1,170 1,229 1,290 1,355 1,423 1,494
Daman & Diu 453 476 500 525 551 579 608
Andhra Pradesh 10,347 10,854 11,386 11,942 12,525 13,134 13,773
Telangana 11,887 12,469 13,081 13,720 14,390 15,089 15,823
Karnataka 13,245 13,618 14,002 14,395 14,799 15,212 15,637
Kerala 5,237 5,420 5,609 5,804 6,006 6,214 6,428
Tamil Nadu 21,360 22,409 23,510 24,661 25,867 27,130 28,452
Puducherry 524 544 566 588 611 635 659
Bihar 6,292 6,749 7,238 7,762 8,323 8,924 9,567
Jharkhand 2,685 2,762 2,841 2,923 3,006 3,092 3,180
Odisha 5,666 5,878 6,097 6,325 6,560 6,804 7,056
West Bengal 18,444 19,630 20,889 22,223 23,640 25,143 26,738
Sikkim 168 176 185 194 204 214 225
Assam 2,242 2,372 2,503 2,642 2,787 2,940 3,100
Manipur 147 148 150 151 153 155 156
Meghalaya 583 613 644 677 711 747 785
Nagaland 161 166 170 174 179 184 189
Tripura 305 312 320 328 336 344 352
Mizoram 112 115 119 122 125 129 132
Andaman & 56 59 62 65 68 71 75
Nicobar Islands
All India 224,502 235,357 246,764 258,747 271,347 284,589 298,509

State 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Delhi 7,571 7,732 7,896 8,063 8,234 8,407 8,584
Haryana 22,498 23,897 25,381 26,953 28,620 30,387 32,263
Jammu & Kashmir 4,674 4,830 4,991 5,156 5,326 5,501 5,682
Punjab 15,584 15,949 16,321 16,702 17,090 17,486 17,891
Rajasthan 23,667 24,863 26,116 27,431 28,808 30,253 31,770
Uttar Pradesh 33,815 35,532 37,331 39,217 41,193 43,263 45,437
Uttarakhand 5,680 6,051 6,445 6,864 7,310 7,784 8,289
Chandigarh 611 636 661 687 715 743 772
Goa 938 973 1,009 1,046 1,085 1,124 1,164
Gujarat 20,780 21,349 21,933 22,532 23,146 23,775 24,421
Chhattisgarh 8,064 8,488 8,933 9,400 9,891 10,406 10,948
Madhya Pradesh 20,669 21,715 22,813 23,963 25,168 26,431 27,757
Maharashtra 28,454 29,101 29,761 30,434 31,122 31,823 32,540
D. & N. Haveli 1,569 1,647 1,729 1,815 1,906 2,001 2,101
Daman & Diu 638 670 704 739 776 815 856
Andhra Pradesh 14,441 15,164 15,921 16,716 17,548 18,419 19,333
Telangana 16,590 17,421 18,292 19,205 20,160 21,161 22,212
Karnataka 16,072 16,543 17,026 17,522 18,031 18,554 19,092
Kerala 6,650 6,882 7,123 7,371 7,627 7,891 8,164
Tamil Nadu 29,835 31,349 32,936 34,600 36,345 38,175 40,097
Puducherry 685 714 744 776 808 842 877
Bihar 10,255 10,991 11,778 12,621 13,522 14,485 15,517
Jharkhand 3,271 3,363 3,459 3,557 3,657 3,760 3,866
Odisha 7,316 7,586 7,865 8,154 8,453 8,762 9,082
West Bengal 28,430 30,225 32,128 34,147 36,286 38,554 40,964
Sikkim 236 248 260 273 287 301 316
Assam 3,267 3,467 3,677 3,899 4,134 4,381 4,643
Manipur 158 160 162 164 166 168 170
Meghalaya 824 870 919 971 1,025 1,082 1,142
Nagaland 193 198 204 209 214 220 226
Tripura 361 370 379 389 398 408 418
Mizoram 136 140 143 147 151 155 159
Andaman & 79 83 87 91 96 101 106
Nicobar Islands
All India 313,141 328,904 345,493 362,954 381,332 400,676 421,081

Table A5.13: CAGR of Forecasted Peak Electricity Demand (SUR Model Pessimistic)

FY 2021-22 FY 2026-27 FY 2026-27 FY 2036-37 FY 2036-37
Delhi 2.16 2.15 2.15 2.12 2.14
Haryana 6.33 6.29 6.31 6.21 6.26
Jammu & Kashmir 3.93 3.52 3.72 3.33 3.53
Punjab 2.45 2.39 2.42 2.34 2.38
Rajasthan 5.12 5.1 5.11 5.05 5.08
Uttar Pradesh 5.3 5.18 5.24 5.07 5.16
Uttarakhand 6.86 6.63 6.74 6.52 6.63
Chandigarh 4.18 4.1 4.14 3.99 4.06
Goa 3.78 3.74 3.76 3.69 3.73
Gujarat 2.48 2.64 2.56 2.68 2.62
Chhattisgarh 4.46 4.96 4.71 5.11 4.91
Madhya Pradesh 4.36 4.81 4.58 4.93 4.76
Maharashtra 2.04 2.19 2.12 2.23 2.17
D. & N. Haveli 5.04 5.02 5.03 5 5.01
Daman & Diu 5.08 5.07 5.08 5.01 5.04
Andhra Pradesh 4.66 4.89 4.78 4.94 4.86
Telangana 4.66 4.9 4.78 4.94 4.86
Karnataka 2.61 2.82 2.71 2.86 2.79
Kerala 3.45 3.49 3.47 3.47 3.47
Tamil Nadu 4.61 4.91 4.76 4.98 4.87
Puducherry 3.37 3.93 3.65 4.08 3.86
Bihar 7.29 7.25 7.27 7.17 7.22
Jharkhand 2.89 2.87 2.88 2.84 2.86
Odisha 3.78 3.74 3.76 3.68 3.72
West Bengal 6.55 6.43 6.49 6.31 6.4
Sikkim 5.02 5 5.01 5 5
Assam 5.71 5.82 5.77 5.8 5.78
Manipur 1.16 1.09 1.13 1.19 1.16
Meghalaya 4.3 5.14 4.72 5.37 5.04
Nagaland 2.69 2.61 2.65 2.65 2.65
Tripura 2.36 2.42 2.39 2.45 2.42
Mizoram 2.87 2.85 2.86 2.68 2.77
Andaman & Nicobar 4.56 5.39 4.97 5.01 4.99
Islands
All-India 4.61 4.83 4.72 4.99 4.86

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LONG TERM

2. Methodology for econometric forecasting 26

3. Historical trends of variables 34

4. Choice of model for forecasting electricity demand

5. Electricity demand forecasts from FY 2016-17 to

Annexure 1: Long panel estimation 76

Annexure 2: Details of the data used 78

Annexure 3: Coefcient Results 85

Annexure 4: State Shares of electricity consumption 94

Annexure 5: Electricity Demand Forecasts and Growth rates 98

8 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

Models for electricity demand forecasting

9 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

Partial Adjustment Model – The Model & Its Significant findings

10 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

11 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

Table 1: Electrical Energy Requirement (in BU) from PAM

2021-22 1471.5 1477.5 1443.5 1566.0

2026-27 1886.9 1905.4 1776.9 2047.4

2031-32 2378.7 2458.9 2186.7 2530.5

2036-37 2976.3 3175.4 2691.07 3049.4

Table 2: Electrical Energy Requirement CAGR (%) from PAM

2021-22 to 2026-27 5.10 5.22 4.24 5.51

2016-17 to 2026-27 5.05 5.16 4.43 5.84

2026-27 to 2036-37 4.66 5.24 4.24 4.06

2016-17 to 2036-37 4.86 5.20 4.33 4.95

12 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

Table 3: Peak Electricity Demand (in MW) from PAM

2021-22 201,481 202,330 195,133 225,751

2026-27 255,911 259,628 239,299 298,774

2031-32 319,794 333,152 293,462 370,462

2036-37 398,172 427,497 359,882 447,702

Forecasts based on the SUR model

13 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

2021-22 1550.0 1558.3 1488.2 1566.0

2026-27 2056.4 2095.7 1884.5 2047.4

2031-32 2685.1 2836.8 2395.4 2530.5

2036-37 3517.4 3878.2 3066.8 3049.4

Table 5: Electrical Energy Requirement CAGR (%) from SUR

2021-22 to 2026-27 5.82 6.1 4.83 5.51

2016-17 to 2026-27 5.64 5.84 4.72 5.84

2016-17 to 2036-37 5.58 6.09 4.86 4.95

14 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

2021-22 212,828 213,972 204,340 225,751

2026-27 282,361 287,751 258,747 298,774

2031-32 368,683 389,512 328,904 370,462

2036-37 482,950 532,495 421,081 447,702

Comparison between 19th EPS forecast by PEUM and

Comparison of Electrical Energy Requirement with PEUM (FY 2017 - FY

15 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

16 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

As accessed on 1st April 2019

18 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

Table 1.1 Models for electricity demand forecasting

Multivariate regression Electricity demand is modelled as a function of a number of independent variables

19 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

This method allows incorporation of the energy efficiency improvements in the

20 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

21 Long Term Electricity Demand Forecasting