Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

- VRB

When it is not possible to forecast a prevailing surface wind direction due to its expected
variability, for example, during light wind conditions (less than 3 kt) or thunderstorms, the
forecast wind direction should be indicated as variable using “VRB”. When the wind is forecast to
be less than 1 kt the forecast wind speed should be indicated as calm.

- BECMG or TEMPO

Should be used followed by the time period during which the change is expected to occur. The
time period should be indicated as the beginning and end of the period in whole hours UTC.

The change indicator “BECMG” and the associated time group should be used to describe changes
where the meteorological conditions are expected to reach or pass through specified threshold
values at a regular or irregular rate and at an unspecified time during the time period. The time
period should normally not exceed 2 hours but in any case should not exceed 4 hours.

The change indicator “TEMPO” and the associated time group should be used to describe expected
frequent or infrequent temporary fluctuations in the meteorological conditions which reach or pass
specified threshold values and last for a period of less than one hour in each instance and, in the
aggregate, cover less than one-half of the forecast period during which the fluctuations are
expected to occur. If the temporary fluctuation is expected to last one hour or longer, the change
group “BECMG” should be used or the validity period should be subdivided.

Where one set of prevailing weather conditions is expected to change significantly and more or
less completely to a different set of conditions, the period of validity should be subdivided into self-
contained periods using the abbreviation “FM” followed immediately by a four-figure time group in
whole hours and minutes UTC indicating the time the change is expected to occur. The subdivided
period following the abbreviation “FM” should be self-contained and all forecast conditions given
before the abbreviation should be superseded by those following the abbreviation.

- PROB

The probability of a forecast of temporary fluctuations in meteorological conditions should be

indicated, as necessary, by use of the abbreviation “PROB” followed by the probability in tens of
per cent, placed before the change indicator “TEMPO” and associated time group. A probability of
an alternative value or change of less than 30 per cent should not be considered sufficiently
significant to be indicated. A probability of an alternative value or change of 50 per cent or more,
for aviation purposes, should not be considered a probability but instead should be indicated, as
necessary, by use of the change indicators “BECMG” or “TEMPO” or by subdivision of the validity
period using the abbreviation “FM”. The probability group should not be used to qualify the change
indicator “BECMG” nor the time indicator “FM”.

The indicator “PROB” shall not be used in trend forecasts.

- NOSIG

The trend forecast shall indicate significant changes in respect of one or more of the elements:
surface wind, visibility, weather and clouds. Only those elements shall be included for which a
significant change is expected. However, in the case of significant changes in respect of cloud, all
cloud groups, including layers or masses not expected to change, shall be indicated. In the case of
a significant change in visibility, the phenomenon causing the reduction of visibility shall also be
indicated. When no change is expected to occur, this shall be indicated by the term “NOSIG”.
- FM, TL or AT

When a change is expected to occur, the trend forecast shall begin with one of the change
indicators “BECMG” or “TEMPO”.

The change indicator “BECMG” shall be used to describe forecast changes where the
meteorological conditions are expected to reach or pass through specified values at a regular or
irregular rate. The period during which, or the time at which, the change is forecast to occur shall
be indicated, using the abbreviations “FM”, “TL”, or “AT”, as appropriate, each followed by a time
group in hours and minutes.

When the change is forecast to begin and end wholly within the trend forecast period, the
beginning and end of the change shall be indicated by using the abbreviations “FM” and “TL”,
respectively, with their associated time groups.

When the change is forecast to commence at the beginning of the trend forecast period but be
completed before the end of that period, the abbreviation “FM” and its associated time group shall
be omitted and only “TL” and its associated time group shall be used.

When the change is forecast to begin during the trend forecast period and be completed at the end
of that period, the abbreviation ”TL” and its associated time group shall be omitted and only “FM”
and its associated time group shall be used.

When the change is forecast to occur at a specified time during the trend forecast period, the
abbreviation “AT” followed by its associated time group shall be used.

When the change is forecast to commence at the beginning of the trend forecast period and be
completed by the end of that period or when the change is forecast to occur within the trend
forecast period but the time is uncertain, the abbreviations “FM”, “TL” or “AT” and their associated
time groups shall be omitted and the change indicator “BECMG” shall be used alone.

The change indicator “TEMPO” shall be used to describe forecast temporary fluctuations in the
meteorological conditions which reach or pass specified values and last for a period of less than
one hour in each instance and, in the aggregate, cover less than one-half of the period during
which the fluctuations are forecast to occur. The period during which the temporary fluctuations
are forecast to occur shall be indicated, using the abbreviations “FM” and/or “TL”, as appropriate,
each followed by a time group in hours and minutes.

When the period of temporary fluctuations in the meteorological conditions is forecast to begin and
end wholly within the trend forecast period, the beginning and end of the period of temporary
fluctuations shall be indicated by using the abbreviations “FM” and “TL”, respectively, with their
associated time groups.

When the period of temporary fluctuations is forecast to commence at the beginning of the trend
forecast period but cease before the end of that period, the abbreviation “FM” and its associated
time group shall be omitted and only “TL” and its associated time group shall be used.

When the period of temporary fluctuations is forecast to begin during the trend forecast period and
cease by the end of that period, the abbreviation “TL” and its associated time group shall be
omitted and only “FM” and its associated time group shall be used.

When the period of temporary fluctuations is forecast to commence at the beginning of the trend
forecast period and cease by the end of that period, both abbreviations “FM” and “TL” and their
associated time groups shall be omitted and the change indicator “TEMPO” shall be used alone.

Difference between Isobars and Isohypses

Although they look similar when plotted on a weather chart, there is a distinct difference between
isobars and isohypses. An isobar connects points of equal barometric pressure normalized to sea
level while an isohypse connects points of equal geopotential height. Isohypses are also called
height contours. Isobars are plotted only on surface charts while isohypses are plotted on upper air
charts such as the 850, 700, 500, and 300 mb analysis and forecast charts.

What is an isohypse and how is it found? An isohypse, or height contour, represents the distance
from zero geopotential meters. Geopotential assumes the earth is perfectly flat and perfectly
round. The difference between a geopotential meter and an actual meter is very small because the
earth is close to being a perfect sphere and sea level is close to the elevation of zero geopotential
if the earth was perfectly smooth. Geopotential can be thought of as the distance above sea level.
An isohypse represents the distance from zero geopotential meters (at about sea level) to the
pressure level of interest. For example, if the 700 millibar height at OKC is 2,970 geopotential
meters, this means it is 2,970 gpm from sea level to the 700 millibar level. Rawinsondes can
determine the geopotential height for each pressure level in the atmosphere above the point they
are launched. From this information, points of equal geopotential height can be connected at each
pressure level in the atmosphere that is plotted. This produces the isohypse contour pattern of
troughs, ridges, shortwaves, etc. on an upper level plot.

The value of an isohypse is dependent on the average temperature of the air and the average
moisture content of the air underneath the pressure level of interest. Low isohypses values
indicate colder air (troughs) while high isohypse value (ridges) indicates warmer air (warm air
expands thus produces higher heights) under the pressure level of interest. Moisture has a minor
effect on height as compared to temperature. Moist air will have a little higher isohypse value than
dry air at the same temperature because moist air is less dense than dry air.

How is the value of an isobar determined? Isobars are normalized to sea level. Normalization
means each the city is given an isobaric value that represent the station pressure that city would
have if it were at sea level. After pressures are normalized, low elevation regions can be compared
to high elevation regions with respect to which locations have higher or lower pressure. If pressure
is NOT normalized, high elevation regions would just about always have lower pressures than low
elevation regions. Normalization makes it possible to know which locations are truly experiencing
relative high or low pressure at the surface.