The Kariba Dam: Impact of The Failure of

IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF
THE KARIBA DAM
THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA

RISK RESEARCH REPORT
Open Rubric
Safety and reliability
of the structure
Political & Economic

stability
Kariba Dam opened
1959 Hydro Electric capacity
stabilised
Extend life of the dam for a further
100 years
still needs maintenance
Impact
Badly in need of repair lack of maintenance on other investments &
56 years later projects in the region
Project delay from
- Flooding
Problem identified - Skills
10 years ago - Governance
- Funding
Next 3 years are critical
Zambezi River Authority (ZRA)

Manage the dam - Zambia & Zimbabwe
Reputation Region
- ZRA
Electricity generation - Advisers
Hydro power - Funders
40% of the - Nation
region’s
capacity
Funders
40%
- World Bank
- African Development Bank
- European Union
Challenging project
Climate change,
Rainfall patterns,
$294,2m
Skills availability,
Flooding, Drought
other projects in the
region
Electricity
Revenue Terrorism
Population of the region under review (2011)
116 million
Botswana - 1,8m
Malawi - 14,4m
Mozambique - 23,0m
South Africa - 50,6m
Zambia - 13,4m
Zimbabwe - 12,8m
2 IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015

Risk - from which perspective?
- National, Regional, Investors, Existing industries
- Individuals, Communities, Environmental, Flora and Fauna
- The World, travel, tourism
Build-up to event
- Rainfall in Zambezi catchment area - past 2 years significant in January
- Management of water in Kariba Dam
- Release of water through floodgates (if they work)
- Dam can’t cope
- Warning of potential collapse, evacuation downstream
- Media, Cellphone companies, TV, Twitter, Facebook ...
- Animals
The Event and the Impact ...

Tsunami like wall of water released downstream
4 x bigger than the largest on record

181 billion cubic metres of water from the full Kariba Dam
3.5 million lives at risk
8 hours to reach Cahorra Bassa
Tete wiped out after 10 hours, population 1.8 million
Electricity supply lost - 1,500 megawatts in South Africa
Impact to 30 million people for their basic needs
Animals - Crocodile, Hippo, Fish
Lack of water, waterborne diseases
Food shortages
Agriculture restricted
Access to region impacted
Travel curtailed, border management
Disaster relief, funding
Economic impact unknown
Debt repayment curtailed
Upstream and downstream impact - Kariba Dam water unavailable
Post Event and the Future ...

2065 - 50 years later
5 - 8 years to rebuild Kariba and Cahorra Bassa Dams
Poverty, Food security, on-going support
Water build up in the dams necessary for hydro power - climate change?
Other technology options for power
Funding of replacement dams
On-going maintenance
Eventual de-commissioning
Other dams in the region - what is their status?
IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015 3

The Institute of Risk Management South Africa
Risk Research Report
Impact of the failure of the Kariba Dam
Completed June 2015

Sponsored by Aon South Africa
Researched and written by Kay Darbourn
Contents Page
About IRMSA 5
1. Preface 6
2. Foreword 7
3. Executive Summary 8
4. The Kariba and Cahora Bassa Dams and the Zambezi River 11
5. The Problem and the Kariba Dam Rehabilitation Project 16
6. Risks and Opportunities 19
7. Risk Management 40
8. Conclusion 41
9. A personal observation 42
10. Disclaimer 42
11. References, links and documents used in this report 43
12. Acronyms and abbreviations 44
13. Support from IRMSA members 45
14. Support from other entities and individuals 45
15. About Aon 47

About IRMSA
The Institute of Risk Management South Africa Offering both individual and corporate
(IRMSA) is the Professional Body for Risk memberships, IRMSA assists organisations in
Management in South Africa. IRMSA represents ensuring their employees become professionals
individuals and companies committed to the and are supported in their growth and
enhancement of the risk management discipline. development through every stage of their
IRMSA serves aspiring risk practitioners, risk
career. By becoming a corporate member,
professionals and decision makers in Southern
entities can be aligned to a professional and
Africa, dedicated to the advancement of the risk
recognised risk body and can assist, shape
management profession through accreditation,
research, promotion, education, upliftment, and be at the forefront of risk management.
training, guidance and strong relationships
Visit our website - www.irmsa.org.za - or
with other institutes and associations.
give us a call on +27 11 555 1800.
IRMSA is the leading source of information
We look forward to a very exciting future
and networking opportunities within the risk
management industry, with members from a wide as the Institute continues on the path as the
range of corporations both from the private and professional body for risk management in
public sector and is the professional body for risk South Africa. The IRMSA team strives to offer
management in South Africa as recognised by the service excellence for members and provide
South African Qualifications Authority (SAQA). value for the membership fees paid.
Knowledge, Service, Prosper

1. Preface
Kay Darbourn is a member of

the Institute of Risk Management
South Africa (IRMSA) Risk
Intelligence Committee, she is
also a Fellow, Honorary Life
member, past President and
founding member of the Institute.
Considerable world-wide media attention was provide this work to our members as examples
given to the possible collapse of the Kariba of how the risk report may be used as the
Dam during the last part of 2014. Most of the base for further investigative risk reviews as
funding has been secured and one high level relevant to specific entities and industries.
executive in an entity that may be significantly
impacted has said “well, now the funding Two of the key risks for the region that were
is in place, we can relax” but can we? considered within the risk report were concerns
related to electricity supply in South Africa and
The Institute of Risk Management South Africa the need for improvements to infrastructure, both
(IRMSA), through its Risk Intelligence Committee, for new projects and the need to maintain existing
completed the first South Africa Risks Report structures. Research around the Kariba Dam was
at the end of 2014 and this was published chosen as our first review and is presented as a
in January 2015. The IRMSA Risk Report story – we ask the question “what if the Kariba
highlighted a number of risks for the region Dam should fail, what would the impact be?”
to consider and reflected on the differences
between IRMSA member’s feedback on key Research was focused on the region that might
risks and those featured in the 2014 World be impacted by the failure of the Kariba and
Economic Forum (WEF) Global Risks Report. Cahora Bassa Dams. The report considers some
aspects of history, current challenges and some
As the IRMSA Risk Report was being finalised, future concerns but is not intended to be a risk
the committee suggested that we might take assessment – we hope that you will take what
some of the risks identified within the report you can from this report, as it might impact
and complete “case studies” which go into you and your company, and continue with
more detail on specific areas of the risks and managing your specific risks and opportunities.

2. Foreword
Aon is committed to offering innovative risk solutions to the
challenges that companies face around the world. Each new piece
of crucial risk information presented places business leaders and risk
managers in a better position to mitigate risks in an informed way.
The failure or shortage of critical infrastructure is amongst the top 10

South African risks identified by likelihood and consequence by both
Aon in its Risk Management Survey 2015 and the Institute of Risk
Management South Africa (IRMSA) in the first edition of their South
Africa Risk Report 2015. The potential failure of the Kariba Dam is a Southern Africa
regional risk that falls into the infrastructure risk category, but in addition it would lead
to power supply constraints – another key challenge currently impacting the region.
Aon is a corporate member of IRMSA and proud to be part of this case study into the
regional risks and consequences posed by the potential failure of the Kariba dam. This report
shows that all of us in Southern Africa will suffer the impact if this risk materialises and calls
for each of us to take an interest and be as involved as possible in preventing this potential
disaster from happening. The impact will span across the entire risk consequence spectrum,
from significant loss of life, damage to property and the environment, to economic fall-out.
This risk and its potential consequences need to be viewed as part of the existing power
supply and demand challenges in the region and will require a strong commitment from
governments, private companies and financiers to prevent the failure from happening.
By providing this information to our clients and other risk managers in the
IRMSA network, we hope to empower you to make the right decisions
with regards to the risks you and your company may face.
Nico Bianco
Executive: Aon Risk Solutions

3. Executive Summary
On 3 October 2014 the BBC reported that:
“The Kariba Dam is in a dangerous state. Opened in 1959, it was built on a seemingly
solid bed of basalt. But, in the past 50 years, the torrents from the spillway have
eroded that bedrock, carving a vast crater that has undercut the dam’s foundations.
Engineers are now warning that without urgent repairs, the whole dam will collapse.
If that happened, a tsunami-like wall of water would rip through the Zambezi
valley, reaching the Mozambique border within eight hours. The torrent would
overwhelm Mozambique’s Cahora Bassa Dam and knock out 40% of southern Africa’s
hydroelectric capacity. Along with the devastation of wildlife in the valley, the Zambezi
River Authority (ZRA) estimates that the lives of 3.5 million people are at risk.”
“Can you answer the following questions Consider the key risks that might influence
please”, said the chairman of your board the likelihood of such a catastrophic
after hearing the news report… event occurring in the next 5 years?
a. What will happen if the Kariba Dam fails? a. Project Delay
b. Will our business and our people In December 2014, the critical period
be impacted and when? was defined as “the next three years” but
the full project is due for completion in
c. What are the key challenges we are 2025. Project delay from any cause will
likely to face should it happen? seriously affect the likelihood of failure.
d. What’s the timeframe around the b. Climate change, unseasonal
replacement of the dams, if Kariba fails? rainfall, drought or flooding
e. Will I be impacted, personally? Rainfall in the region is key to hydroelectric
f. Should we be doing something, and if power generation and the economies
so – what? of the various countries. Revenue from
power generation partially funds debt
Well, can you answer these questions repayment in Zambia and Zimbabwe.
from your company’s perspective?
Flooding in the Zambezi basin may
put additional pressure on the Kariba
Dam necessitating the release of water
through the floodgates and may cause
a delay in the rehabilitation project.
c. Funding for the Rehabilitation Project
Whilst funding has been secured for the

There are many events and causes rehabilitation project, increasing costs
that might lead to the delay of the as a result of global economic factors or
rehabilitation project and these are delays may result in additional costs – will
reviewed in more detail in this report. additional funding be available and will
debt re-payment become an issue?

Chairman, in response to your questions and having read through
the IRMSA Risk Research Report, my immediate thoughts would be:
1. What will happen if the 2. Will our business 3. What are the key
Kariba Dam fails? and our people be challenges we are likely
impacted and when? to face should it happen?
a. The water flow from Kariba
will continue down the a. In terms of our people, we a. Communicating clearly with
Zambezi River, impacting need to consider those that our people, board and
people, property, animals might be working in the shareholders will be key.
and plant life until it area and indeed those that
reaches the Cahora Bassa may have relatives in the b. Our reputation and
Dam at which stage the area that will be impacted. how we manage
flow will cause this dam Travel to the region needs this catastrophe will
to be breeched and the to be re-considered as we support and maintain
cycle of damage will go forward, specifically our share price.
continue downstream. in terms of health risks. c. Alternative sources of
This will occur over a electricity and water might
period of 8 to 10 hours b. We can expect our South
African entities to suffer be costly and scarce,
until the flow dissipates. we may need to secure
from a lack of electricity
b. The reduction in the supply supply, leading to load these in advance.
of electricity to various shedding if our energy d. Our ability to change our
countries in the region supply constraints remain future business strategies
will be significant and as they are currently. quickly will be important.
immediate. Some countries
rely totally on hydropower c. Our investments in the e. Decisions around our
and their economies will be region may be at risk current investments in the
seriously impacted, both although property damage region will need to be
for industries that rely on is unlikely outside the taken as soon as possible
electricity to operate and in flood area. The lack of to avoid unnecessary
terms of revenue generated electricity supply will on-going costs.
from the sale of electricity. lead to a significant loss
South Africa will lose in production. Lack of f. Our corporate social
1,500 MW of imported water may also impact responsibility planning may
power as the Cahora some of our operations. need to refocus around
Bassa Dam fails. how we can support
d. We will need to re-think people in the region.
c. Access to water for our new projects in the
people in the Kariba region as the ongoing lack
and Cahora Bassa Dam of electricity and water will
areas for drinking, food make these uneconomical,
and agriculture will be potentially for five to
severely restricted. eight years. Investors will
also be difficult to tap as
d. Transportation and access they will be more focused
to the areas affected will on repairing the dams
be curtailed, alternative or funding alternative
routes across the Zambezi sources of electricity
will need to be sourced, supply and potentially
leading to increased cost funding disaster relief.
and time for deliveries.

4. What’s the timeframe 5. Will I be impacted, 6. Should we be doing
around the replacement of personally? something and if so - what?
the dams, if Kariba fails?
a. Chairman, your own a. Certainly, we need to
a. Assuming both dams are to personal reputation may consider the potential of
be replaced, funding will be at risk if we have not the failure of the Kariba
be required and overall addressed this potential dam as one of the risks
it might take five to eight exposure adequately. that may impact our
years to re-build the dams, company and complete the
including removal of debris b. Are you involved with necessary risk assessments,
caused by the collapse. other companies that might evaluations and treatment
It is even possible that also be impacted? Are plans as soon as possible.
the location of the dams you on other Boards, do Even if the potential
might need to change you have any personal for such a catastrophe
and environmental factors investments in the region? is unlikely, we need to
will come into play. Do you have any property ensure that our planning
in the region or relatives is flexible enough to deal
b. Rebuilding and re-filling of that might be impacted – with any emerging risk.
the dams would depend you really need to look
on rainfall within the at your own Personal Risk b. We need to keep up
Zambezi River Basin, this Assessment separately to date with how the
could also take some time. from the company. refurbishment of the dam is
going and the current and
c. You may need to re-look ongoing rainfall patterns
the supply of electricity to in the region as this may
your home in Gauteng. impact the time taken for
Load shedding is likely the refurbishment and the
to become more frequent potential for the likelihood
and the cost of gas and of the risk materialising.
other energy sources may This should form part of
increase substantially. our on-going environmental
scanning for our business.
c. We might need to
tap into our networks
and relationships and
ensure that this potential
catastrophe receives the
necessary focus across
South Africa, the region
and indeed the world. Let
it not be said that we didn’t
try to make a difference.
Whether you are a Shareholder, Stakeholder, Board Member, Business Executive,

Risk Manager or even a private individual – if you live, work, own property or
have investments in South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mozambique
or Malawi the chances are that if the Kariba Dam fails – you will be impacted!

4. The Kariba and Cahora Bassa Dams and the
Zambezi River
The Zambezi River
The Zambezi River winds its

way through six countries
in Africa, starting in north-
western Zambia and finishing
in the Indian Ocean. The
source lies at about 1,500
metres above sea level in the
Mwinilunga District, very close
to the border where Zambia,
Angola and the Congo meet.
For years the people living along the banks of the The Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) is shared by eight
Zambezi have depended on it for their survival countries, Tanzania and Namibia joining those
and have harnessed its great power for electricity. quoted above. In addition to meeting the basic
needs of more than 30 million people and playing
From its source it then flows through Zambia,
a central role in the riparian economies, the river
Angola, Namibia and Botswana then back
sustains a rich and diverse natural environment.
along the borders of Zambia and Zimbabwe
The Cooperation in International Waters in
finally discharging into the Indian Ocean
Africa (CIWA) Zambezi River Basin program of
at its delta in Mozambique. The area of
the World Bank (WB) has been envisaged as a
its catchment basin is 1,390,000 square
long-term engagement at country level, among
kilometres which is half that of the Nile.
sub-regional clusters and across the basin. The
The Upper Zambezi is only sparsely populated challenge in the ZRB is to promote cooperative
flowing towards the Victoria Falls which are development and management of international
considered the boundary between the upper and waters in a way that drives sustainable
middle Zambezi. Below the falls, the river continues economic growth and improves the livelihoods
to flow, dropping some 250 metres over the next of the populations that critically depend on the
200 kilometres, before entering Lake Kariba. sustainable use and management of shared waters.

Kariba Dam
The dam as seen

from Zimbabwe
a. Some 420 kilometres downstream from Victoria Falls, the

Kariba Dam is the largest man-made reservoir in the world.
At a height of 128m and with a crest length of 617m, the dam
has the capacity of holding 181 billion cubic metres of water.
Designed as a double curvature concrete arc dam, the Kariba
Dam was constructed across the Zambezi River between 1956
and 1959. Commissioned in 1960 and opened by Queen
Elizabeth the Queen Mother, the dam has been central to
regional energy security and economic development ever since.
From 1958 to 1961, “Operation Noah” captured and

removed around 6,000 large animals and numerous
small ones threatened by the lake’s rising waters.
b. The Kariba dam creates Lake Kariba – which is some 280km long at
full level, 32km across at its widest, 5,400 square kilometres surface
area and has a catchment area of 663,000 square kilometres.

c. The Kariba Dam is central to energy security done to boost tourism and funds generated
in the form of hydropower electricity towards further development of the area.
generated for Zimbabwe and Zambia and Most of the residents are employed in
as the Zambezi continues to flow towards the fishing industry, mainly Kapenta.
Mozambique it flows into the Cahora Bassa
Lake and then continues to provide electricity e. The dam was designed by Andre Coyne,
for Mozambique and South Africa. The a French civil engineer who designed 70
Kariba Reservoir supplies water to two dams in 14 countries. See later in this report
underground hydro power stations with a about the failure of the Malpasset dam in
total capacity of 1,839 MW. The North Bank 1959, also designed by Andre Coyne.
station is operated by the Zambia Electricity f. Since 2010, Tractebel Engineering has been
Supply Company (ZESCO) in Zambia advising the (ZRA) on matters pertaining
and has an installed capacity of 1,080 to safety, maintenance and satisfactory
MW. The South Bank station is operated operation of the dam. The agreement
by the Zimbabwe Power Corporation includes engineering studies and works
(ZPC) in Zimbabwe and currently has an supervision of the spillway rehabilitation,
installed capacity of 750 MW, with projects construction of an emergency gate and
underway to increase this to 1,050 MW. sustainability of the plunge pool.
d. Kariba Town is a serene home to 46,000 g. There is a new publication available -
residents and also a variety of wildlife. “Whispers from the Depths” a book by Liz
According to a report from AllAfrica. and Mike Wickens and published by Tracey
com, sadly the town is not benefiting from McDonald Publishers - this may be worthy of
proceeds associated with activities on a read to gain more insight on the building
Lake Kariba. Residents feel more could be of the Kariba Dam in the mid-1950s.

Cahora Bassa Dam
a. The Cahora Bassa Dam is in Mozambique at Songo in Mozambique and the other
and is one of three major dams on the at Apollo in South Africa. There are two
Zambezi river system, the others being the parallel power lines between these two
Kariba and the Itezhi-Tezhi, the latter on the stations, covering 1,400 kilometres, of which
Kafue River, a tributary of the Zambezi. 900 km is in Mozambican territory. Long
stretches of the power transmission lines
b. Dam construction began in 1969 and the were sabotaged during 16 years of the
dam was opened in 1974. The dam is Mozambican Civil War which ended in 1992.
171 metres high, by 303 metres wide and
creates the Cahora Bassa Lake reservoir. d. When understanding the impact on
the local population during and after
c. The Cahora Bassa system is the largest construction, readers may like to refer
hydroelectric scheme in Southern Africa to a book “Dams Displacement and the
with the powerhouse containing five 415 Delusion of Development – Cahora Bassa
MW turbines. Most of the power generated and its’ legacies in Mozambique 1965-
is exported to South Africa, which is done 2007” by Allen & Barbara Isaacman. It is
by the Cahora Bassa HVDC system, a set always important to understand the history
of high voltage direct current lines. The behind such massive construction projects
system includes two converter stations, one and appreciate all sides of any issue.

The Zambezi River
Authority (ZRA)
The ZRA was established as a body corporate on the
first day of October, 1987 by parallel legislation in the
Parliaments of Zambia and Zimbabwe following the
reconstitution of Central African Power Corporation.
The ZRA operates under the Zambezi River Authority

Act, and is mandated to harness and manage the
Zambezi River waters for socio-economic development
and to maintain the Kariba Dam complex including
any future dams or infrastructure on the river forming
a common border between Zambia and Zimbabwe.
The ZRA will manage the Kariba Dam Rehabilitation

Project together with, Tractebel and other
Consultants, Engineers and Construction entities
as necessary and appointed for the project.
Go to www.zaraho.org.zm for more detail on the ZRA.

5. The Problem and the Kariba Dam
Rehabilitation Project
After more than 50 years of providing power for the Southern African
Region, the Kariba Dam now requires a series of rehabilitation works
for its continued safe operation. The program is to be implemented over
the next ten years, taking into account the need to continue operating
the dam safely with minimal interruptions to power generation.
The rehabilitation project includes:
The plunge pool – media comment is that

this problem was noticed a decade ago
but no action was taken. Spillway torrents
have excavated a massive cavern in the
Zambezi river bed, now 10 times bigger
and deeper than the original design
dimensions, that threatens the stability of the
wall foundations. It is necessary to reduce
the turbulence from water, discharged at
8,000 tonnes a second at times, into the
plunge pool below the dam by enlarging
the cavern, and allowing the turbulence
resulting from the spillway discharge to
be dissipated in a less damaging way.
The reshaping of the plunge pool calls

for the construction of a temporary
cofferdam or barrage. This will enable the blasting and excavation
of 300,000 cubic metres of rock from the downstream face and
north and south bank sides of the pool in the dry season.
It was suggested that the work is only likely to start in May 2015,
after the rainy season, beginning with the construction of the
cofferdam, however according to the Zambia Daily mail in March
2015, the works are set to commence in September 2015.

Kariba’s floodgates are designed to release Alkali Silicate Reaction (ASR) – an internet
the magnitude of floodwater that occurs once response related to a Business Day article
in 10,000 years, so if one gate is out of action in February 2015 “To the rescue of Kariba
for repair and the spillway capacity is reduced Dam” by ‘JVG’, was interesting:
it is most unlikely to result in any problem,
even with one gate out of action the spillway http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/
capacity would probably still be enough to innovation/2015/02/17/to-the-
pass the flood event that occurs once in 1,000 rescue-of-kariba-dam
years. Floods on the Zambezi take some “The real danger-obscured by this article – is
time to build up so there would be advance one of Alkali Silicate Reaction (ASR), in simple
warning from rainfall monitoring in the upper terms this is a chemical reaction that leads
catchment, allowing for time to respond. to the breakdown of the physical integrity of
This part of the project will take eight to 10 concrete, hence the term “swelling”, although
years to complete, partly because only one gate descriptive, is incorrect and softens the reality.
can be worked on at a time but also because Once ASR sets in, the reinforcement’s integrity
the plunge pool excavation work cannot be is endangered – as oxygen and moisture
done if the lake level is high and the dam is penetrate the weakened concrete and the
spilling, completion is projected for 2023. reinforcement corrodes to a point where it
actually fails. Ultimately – and in the Kariba
Have a look at this video to see one of the case – most probably – it reached a stage
Kariba Dam gates in action https://www. where the steel reinforcement is severely
youtube.com/watch?v=qDnkfO3g63s weakened, point is – this dam WILL FAIL”.
And this further video gives some information on Whilst obviously this is a personal opinion, it
the 2009 Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric seems clear that the issue of ASR has been
power station accident – this did not involve known for some time and has contributed
the total collapse of the dam but damage to the current safety concerns.
to the power station was considerable.
Nine out of 10 turbines were damaged The permanent secretary of the Zambian
or destroyed and 75 people killed. Ministry of Finance, Felix Nkulukusa, indicated
in January 2015 that the danger arose from an
https://www.youtube.com/ alkali-aggregate reaction in the dam wall, which
watch?v=bfW5MqT7CSA could induce swelling within the concrete mass. In
addition, the spillway sluice gates were no longer
opening and closing automatically to maintain
the required water levels, owing to distortion
and swelling of rusting steel components.

The project, according to the ZRA will: The WB are leading the project from the
funding perspective and their web site
• Assist in securing the long-term provides considerable information. It
safety and reliability of the Kariba seems that the rehabilitation will extend
Dam Hydro-Electric scheme. over 10 years as the project closing date
• Improve the socio-economic is noted as the 28 February 2025.
security associated with continued The project development objective from the WB
operation of the dam. perspective is to assist in improving the safety
• Benefit the downstream riparian states of and reliability of the Kariba Dam. There are three
Mozambique and Malawi by avoiding components to the project totalling U$294.2m:
a disaster that would affect the Cahora • Institutional and Project
Bassa Dam and Lake Malawi. Management US$70.3m
• Through the rehabilitation works, contribute • Plunge Pool Reshaping US$99.3m
to the South African Power Pool (SAPP)
both in terms of generation capacity and • Spillway refurbishment US$124.6m
stability of the system and continued safe
operation of the dam.
• Benefit the South African

Development Community
(SADC) through economic
gains supported through
the continued operation
of the Kariba Dam Hydro-
Electric Scheme.
• Extend the life of the dam

for a further 100 years
Map of the project area and

the Zambezi River Basin

6. Risks and Opportunities
Risk issues and related comments are collated under five
headings, following the categorisation utilised in the IRMSA Risk
Report – South Africa Risks 2015, and the World Economic Forum
(WEF) Global Perceptions Survey. An additional heading “other
risks, challenges and opportunities” was included to cater for
issues that did not appear to fit into the five WEF categories as
these seem to reflect mainly negative impacts or causes.
6.1 Economic Risks
Risks in the economic category include fiscal and liquidity

crises, failure of a major financial mechanism or institution,
oil-price shocks, chronic unemployment and failure of physical
infrastructure on which economic activity depends.
Countries, Industries and natural resources
Botswana is a completely landlocked country in the centre of

Southern Africa. Covering an area of 582,000 square kilometres,
Botswana shares borders with South Africa, Namibia, Zambia
and Zimbabwe. The Kalahari Desert occupies more than 70% of
the country and its capital City, Gaborone is located in the south
east of the country. With a population of just over two million,
the mining sector is the major contributor to the export base
and the government is endeavouring to reduce the vulnerability
arising from the heavy dependence on diamond mining. The
livestock industry, specifically beef and beef processing is another
significant export. Tourism is mainly focused on the Okavango
Delta, the Kalahari Game Reserve and the Chobe National Park.

Zimbabwe occupies 390,757 Zambia is an entirely land- Mozambique lies on the east
square kilometres of land in locked country covering coast of Southern Africa,
south central Africa, between an area of 752,612 square measuring a total of 799,380
the Limpopo and Zambezi kilometres, with a population square kilometres in area. The
rivers and is richly endowed of approximately 13 million. country borders the Untiled
with mineral resources such To the north it is bordered by Republic of Tanzania, Zambia,
as gold, chrome, asbestos, the Democratic Republic of Malawi, Zimbabwe, South
coal, iron ore, nickel, copper, Congo and the United Republic Africa and Swaziland. With
diamonds and platinum. The of Tanzania, to the west by a total population in excess
land-locked country is bounded Angola, to the south west of 20 million, agriculture is
by Mozambique to the east, by Namibia, to the east by the backbone of the economy
Zambia to the north and south Malawi and Mozambique and providing employment for
west, South Africa to the to the south by Zimbabwe and over 75% of the work force.
south and to the south west by Botswana. Lusaka is the capital
Botswana. With a population city and is believed to be the According to the International
of over 14 million, Zimbabwe’s fastest growing city in Central Monetary Fund (IMF),
economy is dependent Africa. Mining and quarrying strong economic growth in
on agricultural products, account for a large proportion Mozambique is supported
mining, industry and cattle of Zambia’s merchandise by major investments in coal
farming. Tourism contributes exports. Zambia is presently the mining and natural gas sectors
approximately 5% of GDP world’s fourth largest producer but stricter controls over
however very little development of copper and has around state-run firms is necessary.
in this area has occurred since 6% of the world’s known Mozambique is in the process
1996. At present Zimbabwe is reserves. Other contributors of offering over a dozen
facing severe socio-economic to the economy are industry, exploration blocks in its
difficulties and the country is fishing and agriculture. The northern region, where US oil
at high risk of debt distress, tourism sector has consistently major Anadarko Petroleum
with an unsustainable external demonstrated growth due and Italy’s Eni are already
debt estimated at US$ 8.4 to a rich natural heritage. developing multibillion dollar
billion at the end of 2014. The natural gas projects.
government plans to hold a
high-level international debt
resolution forum in 2015 with
the assistance of the African
Development Bank (AfDB).

Malawi is a landlocked country located in The economy of South Africa is the second
southern central Africa along the western part of largest in Africa, behind Nigeria. It accounts for
the Great Rift Alley of Africa. Covering a total 24% of its gross domestic product in terms of
area of 118,484 square kilometres, Malawi is purchasing power parity, and is ranked as an
bordered by the United Republic of Tanzania to upper-middle income economy by the WB, one
the north and north east, Mozambique to the east, of only four countries in Africa in this category.
south and south west and Zambia to the west.
Lake Malawi is the third largest lake on Africa and The country’s economy is reasonably diversified
is the area’s principal tourist attraction. Malawi with key economic sectors including mining,
has an estimated population of 14 million and agriculture and fisheries, vehicle manufacturing
agriculture is the largest sector of the economy. and assembly, food processing, clothing
and textiles, telecommunication, energy,
financial and business services, real estate
tourism, transportation and wholesale and
retail trade. The majority of these industries
require an adequate and reliable electricity
supply to maintain performance.
The high levels of unemployment and

inequality, together with crime related events,
are considered by the government and
most South Africans to be the most salient
economic problems facing the country.

Dam construction and management
a. The cost of a new dam to replace the Kariba c. Whilst reviewing the impact of the failure of
dam is estimated at US$5bn by a number the Kariba Dam it has been assumed that the
of Zambian sources, what is not clearly dam would be re-built, however with climate
understood is whether this includes removal change and rainfall patterns impacting future
of the damaged infrastructure following the dam levels and new technologies coming to
dam collapse. The timeframe around this the fore, will this necessarily be the solution?
“new build” is unknown but is likely to be a d. Reports from many sources indicate that “if
minimum of five years with potentially another nothing is done, the dam will collapse in three
three years to remove the existing structure. years” however there are many differing
The location of any new dam is likely to thoughts around this, primarily around the
be far downstream of Kariba at some sites possible underlying causes that may trigger
previously identified however environmental such a catastrophic event. Business Day live
issues may be a cause for concern. notes that in the event of a “catastrophic
Kariba Dam failure”, economic damage to
b. The cost of replacing the Cahora Bassa
the region will exceed R88 billion and will
Dam, following a devastating failure of include the washing away of the Cahora
the Kariba Dam and the flooding that Bassa Dam and the loss of 40% of Southern
would reach Cahora Bassa in an estimated Africa’s Electricity capacity”. It is not
eight hours after this catastrophic event, is clear how this number was arrived at and
unknown but is likely to be similar in terms based on the potential lead time for any
of the cost and timeframe noted for Kariba. replacement of electricity generating capacity
The dams might be repaired or replaced and the funding requirements, together
concurrently rather than one after the other with the impact on the region’s people and
and funding will be a key challenge. economies it seems a rather low number.

e. Design life of dams – according to f. De-commissioning of Dams – referring
engineering comments, large dams have an again to engineering comments the question
indefinite life. Their structure could last as arises – how do you de-commission a dam?
long as the pyramids (5,000 years). For as Looking at Kariba specifically, and 100 to
long as they hold water someone will have 500 years hence, there are a number of
to look after them and maintain the spillways possible scenarios but it is not possible to
and powerhouse. This implies that designers,
drain the dam – there is no provision for
builders and owners must look further
de-watering; the power station could be
ahead than they have done in the past and
shut down, and the spillway gates opened
ensure that their dams can be maintained
indefinitely or, if necessary dismantled. but this would mean the gates would soon
need repair and the plunge pool would
Large dams usually have an “economic life” need evacuation downstream; the dam
of 50 or more years, reaching the end of could be blown up, but the water flow would
that “life” when they have paid themselves then destroy Cahora Bassa and flood the
off – if they silt up later it is seen as no Zambezi valley. The cost of de-commissioning
great loss in present value terms. The Kariba
is unknown but should include bringing the
rehabilitation project is said to increase the
area back to as near pristine condition as
life of the dam by a further 100 years.
possible. Again this would need funding.
Silting may also be a concern for the
Kariba dam which is said to be less than g. Looking to the future, it would seem that the
efficient. When silting occurs the bottom Kariba dam, and indeed most dams within
outlets are first to be blocked followed the region, will need adequate maintenance
by the power intakes. Finally silt fills the for a significant period of time, was this
reservoir to spillway level and as it is heavy, considered in the original project planning
the load on the dam is much increased. or was the objective shorter term focused?

Electricity & infrastructure
a. Deloitte’s report on Sub-Saharan Africa Six disruptors were highlighted:-

(SSA) Power Trends makes interesting
reading. The report indicates that low i. African economic growth,
levels of infrastructure and power supply transformation and rising demand
are a deterrent for many wanting to ii. A shifting energy mix giving rise
invest across various sectors in Africa. The to new capital and players
development of large capital projects relies
iii. Changing role and type of customers
on robust planning, reliable funding, and
resilient operating structures together with iv. Renewable technologies
skills development. The team note that
v. Changing market structures
unreliable, insufficient and costly power
and dynamics
generation and distribution across the
African continent has arguably been the vi. Smarter grids and systems,
Achilles heel to higher and more inclusive smarter utilities
growth and socio-economic development b. In December 2014, the SAPP suggested
of the region. Infrastructure stock levels that the region could experience savings
have impeded rather than facilitated of over US$48 billion if all the current
growth and development although this is electricity generation projects in the
changing rapidly. The report suggests that pipeline are implemented in a coordinated
“A disruption displaces an existing fashion. This would mean synchronizing the
market, industry or technology and implementation of various planned energy
produces something new and more projects with expected capacity of 27,881
efficient and worthwhile. It is at MW and the current completion date in
once destructive and creative” 2018. There appears to be little chance of
this occurring as national plans seem to
take precedence over regional plans.

c. Zambia relies on hydro power for more than d. Mozambique – The entity that operates the
90% of its electricity, according to Bloomberg Cahora Bassa dam on the Zambezi River –
Business. Water levels have declined at Lake Hydroelectric de Cahora Bassa (HCB), advises
Kariba and Kafue Gorge plants which are that a further hydro power station with the
the source of three-quarters of that supply. capacity to produce 1,045 MW is to be built
Load shedding will increase during 2015 once funding is agreed. Construction will take
to approximately 600 MW, almost 30% of six years and will add to the current 2,075
available capacity, directly due to reducing MW capacity. The country currently supplies
water levels. Two new plants are expected to power to neighbouring South Africa, Namibia,
provide up to 420 MW by the end of this year. Zimbabwe and Swaziland and is likely to
extend this to include the DRC and Tanzania.
Lusaka’s energy demand has grown at 6%
a year over the past 10 years, with demand The existing HCB dam was built by Portugal,
outstripping installed capacity. Engineering news South Africa and Germany during colonial
reports that Aurecon will provide engineering, times. A few years ago, the dam was
design and construction supervision services transferred to the Mozambican state for
for ZESCO for a US$200m WB funded Lusaka US$700m, following lengthy negotiations
transmission and distribution rehabilitation between Maputo and Lisbon.
project, due for completion in 2019.
Recently HCB has announced it will spend
Zambia’s Copperbelt Energy Corporation about US$14m on protecting transmission lines
(CEC) is the largest supplier of power to mines against the effects of flooding. This will involve
in the southern African nation. Reliability strengthening the pylons on or near river banks
of supply for mining customers seems to be to be able to withstand the forces of waters
a major issue with a number of blackouts during peak moments of a flood. On the 12th
occurring each year. CEC is in talks with January 2015 a massive flood on the Licungo
Old Mutual over a possible US$205m hydro River, in the central province of Zambezia
power station on which work has already swept away 10 pylons on the transmission lines
started with completion anticipated in 2018. carrying Cahora Bassa power to the north of
the country, leaving parts of the region without
Impacting both Zambia and Zimbabwe, the power for four weeks. HCB power is carried
Batoka Hydro Electric scheme is expected to South Africa along two high voltage direct
to go ahead through the ZRA. US$6m has current lines each running for about 1,400
been released by the WB for the feasibility kilometres and with a total of 2,000 pylons.
study. The project is expected to start in
2016 with completion in 2021. Go to http:// Other projects under review include:
victoriafalls24.com/blog/2015/01/26/latest-
update-batoka-dam-project/ for more information • The Lupata Hydro Electric facility – 416 MW
and to see some of the risks highlighted. • The Boroma Hydroelectric dam – 210 MW
A recent news report from the Zambia Daily • The Mphanda Nkuwa dam – 1,500 MW
Mail talks about the knock-on impacts of load
shedding “Apparently the only people who are • Lurio Hydroelectric plant – 180 MW
enjoying load shedding are call-girls who are
taking advantage of the situation to provide • Alto Malema Hydroelectric dam – 60 MW
outdoor flings to their clients in dark corners of
the streets” and “Some electricity consumers
are considering temporarily stopping paying for
their DStv bouquets until load shedding is over”.

e. Zimbabwe – the power utility ZESA has a a coal power station. If the water supply
number of challenges to contend with, the for this proposed station is not available,
most recent related to the declining water the plant will be unable to produce.
levels in the Kariba Dam, which have led to
a 400 MW reduction in generation power Engineering news in April 2015 reported
and then a fault at the Hwange Power Station that Zimbabwe plans to build new power
which occurred in June 2015, apparently stations to generate 3,500 MW at a cost
related to the aging plant and the need for of US$5 billion according to the national
refurbishment. With only 1,000 MW available power company ZPC. Where funding for
and a demand of 2,000 MW, Zimbabwe this construction will come from is not clear
has been experiencing crippling power as lenders like the IMF and WB have said
shortages for a long time, allAfrica.com they will only resume lending to the country
comments that “the country will endure its’ once it clears its debts with the global
darkest winter season in history this year”. lenders. However The Southern Times
newspaper commenting on the project to
Unfortunately the power crisis is likely increase capacity at the South Kariba hydro
to lead to increasing unemployment in power station by 300 MW notes that this
the country together with increasing upgrade has been facilitated by a US$319m
poverty levels, with job seekers potentially loan from China. It further states that this
seeking relief across adjacent borders. deal is a clear example of Zimbabwe’s
“Look East” policy which was adopted
RioZim, which mines gold, diamonds and after falling out with Western powers.
coal in Zimbabwe wants to work with state-
owned power utilities in South Africa and A decline in commodity prices with a
Namibia to build a 1,400 MW electricity strengthening of the US dollar makes
plant near its Sengwa coal fields and export debt unsustainable in many economies.
power to Eskom and Nampower. Coal for Zimbabwe’s massive external debt,
the plant will come from the company’s amounting to 40% of GDP, remains a sign
coalfields in northern Zimbabwe, while it of vulnerability and other countries in the
will draw water from Lake Kariba, 85km region, such as Mozambique and Tanzania,
to the north. So, whilst we look at options are racking up debt to fuel growth. Debt
to deal with the power supply problem, servicing will squeeze public expenditure
utilising coal as the fuel source, we need for many years within such economies, what
to appreciate the amount of water to run can we learn from the crisis in Greece?

f. South Africa – Eskom Holdings (Eskom) is a State owned company
that generates, transports and distributes approximately 95% of South
Africa’s electricity, making up 60% of the total electricity consumed
on the African continent. Eskom is the world’s eleventh largest
power utility in terms of generating capacity, ranks ninth in terms of
sales, and boasts the world’s largest dry-cooling power stations.
Eskom sells power directly to some 6,000 industrial, 18,000 commercial,

70,000 agricultural and 3 million residential customers. It owns
and operates a number of coal-fired, gas-fired, hydro and pumped
storage power stations, as well as one nuclear power station.
Eskom’s 26,000 kilometres of transmission lines span the

entire country and extend into most SADC countries.
The situation within South Africa in terms of available electricity

supply has been of concern for a number of years with the Utility’s
reserve margin at far less than optimum levels. Two major new coal-
fired power stations are in the process of being built but delays have
resulted in significant cost increases and the need to utilise Open Cycle
Gas Turbines on a regular basis or to load-shed customers. Increasing
costs of supply need to be met by consumers, however the National
Energy Regulator (NERSA) has not allowed the Eskom recommended
tariff increases in the past few years. This has led to a downgrading of
Eskom by credit rating agencies and an increase in the cost of debt.
A lack of maintenance on existing stations within the Eskom

fleet has led to a less than efficient fleet with unplanned
breakdowns, further reducing the available capacity.
A long term agreement for the importing of power from HCB accounts for
1,500 MW of the Utility’s total available capacity and the failure of the
Kariba Dam would have a serious effect on Eskom’s ability to continue
to provide sufficient power to their customers. If we look at two of the
units of one of the new stations being more or less equivalent to the loss
of the imported power from Cahora Bassa, it is clear that such an event
would be severe for all South Africans, let alone the rest of the region.
g. Deloitte Corporate Finance experts comment that inadequate infrastructure

remains a major obstacle towards Africa achieving its full economic
growth. Meeting the demand for key infrastructure has been identified as a
priority creating an exciting opportunities for global investors who need to
look past the traditional Western view of Africa as a homogeneous block
and undertake the detailed research required to understand the nuances
and unique opportunities of each region and each individual country.
Is there an opportunity perhaps for the risk fraternity to consider a

new type of risk assessment – Regional Risk Management – looking
specifically at the systemic risks impacting the entire region?

h. Creamer Media’s Engineering News A WB “Chair Summary” related to a meeting
reports on the WEF Global Strategic held 9 December 2014 and considering
Infrastructure Initiative (ASII) which the Kariba Dam Rehabilitation Project,
hopes to draw billions of dollars to although not an approved record, states:
boost infrastructure projects in Africa.
“Directors acknowledged that a
“Africa has a US$100 billion a year potential catastrophic failure of the dam
infrastructure gap. It needs to spend would result in devastating regional
U$1.5 trillion in the next 15 years to flooding, significant loss of human
provide water, electricity, sanitation, life, and unprecedented economic
roads, rail and economic growth damage downstream in the Zambezi
necessary for 80 million young people River. They also acknowledged the
in Africa to get jobs every year”. complexity and risks of the proposed
undertaking and underscored the
i. According to a report in Business Day Live, importance of building strong capacity
among the significant external activities and sound institutional arrangements
likely to cause concern on the integrity of for success. The importance of close
the dam are the drill and blast operations monitoring and taking appropriate
at the Kariba south bank during the project. precautions to mitigate environmental
Such activity causes vibrations and shock and social risks was strongly urged”.
waves which must be capped at certain
thresholds. It has been recommended that More details are available for those
all drill and blast operations taking place at interested in further research on the
and near the dam are monitored, logged, WB web site – www.worldbank.org.
analysed and controlled according to
recommendations for the Kariba Dam. It seems evident that failure to obtain funding
to rehabilitate the Kariba Dam, and of course
j. With all of the construction related to actually ensure the project is completed,
projects in progress or anticipated in the would have such an impact on other projects
region, competition for skills, specifically in and around the Zambezi that this specific
engineering and consulting expertise, is project surely had priority in terms of funding.
likely to be a significant challenge.
Revenue generated for Zambia, Zimbabwe
k. The total cost of works is estimated at and Mozambique specifically around
US$294m. The Governments of Zambia electricity generation and the reduction in
and Zimbabwe have mobilised funding revenue if hydroelectric power from the
from the AfDB, the European Union (EU), Zambezi is reduced or eliminated for a
the Government of Sweden and the WB significant period would severely impact
to support the ZRA in the project. the economies of these countries – could
it also lead to failure to repay existing
View Marcus Wishart from the WB as he loans and impact further investment?
talks about the project: https://www.youtube.
com/watch?v=hXclsm2wll4&feature=player_
embedded

6.2 Environmental Risks
Risks in the environmental category include both natural disasters, such as earthquakes
and geomagnetic storms, and man-made risks such as collapsing ecosystems, freshwater
shortages, nuclear accidents and failure to mitigate or adapt to climate change.
a. If the tidal wave of water from the collapse d. Climate change in SADC – The
of the Kariba Dam reaches Mozambique Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
and the Cahora Bassa dam, it is likely to Change (IPCC) provides good information
overwhelm this dam releasing another 51 on this topic. Climate modellers indicate
billion tons of water, making the spillage four further increases of mean temperatures
times bigger than the largest on record. between 2 and 4.5 degrees centigrade
in the next 50 to 100 years, these
b. Flood Disaster Management. Until the variances are expected to be greater in
Environmental and Social Impact Assessment the summer than in the winter season.
(ESIA) and Environmental and Social
According to the AfDB Project Appraisal
Management Plan (ESMP) documents are Report, the IPCC has categorised the
available it would be unfair to comment on Zambezi as the river basin exhibiting the
whether sufficient attention has been given to “worst” potential effects of climate change
the downstream flood potential and impact. among 11 major African basins, due to the
There is no doubt that a catastrophic failure resonating effect of increase in temperature
of the Kariba Dam would have a long term and decrease in rainfall. The Zambezi runoff
impact on the people of the area, the flora is highly sensitive to variations in climate,
and fauna and agriculture which is a key to as small changes in rainfall produce large
the economies of most of the riparian states. changes in runoff. Over the next century,
climate change is expected to increase this
c. New Civil Engineer International Magazine variability, and the vulnerability of the basin
reports that a Kariba collapse would be and its hydropower dams to these changes.
a repeat on a massive scale of the 1959
The future picture for Southern Africa’s
collapse of the Malpasset dam in the South
climate is increasingly clear, based on
of France, which was also the work of observed trends over the past century
Andre Coyne who designed Kariba. The and increasing confidence in the range
Malpasset dam was completed in 1954, but of climate change scenarios developed.
on 2 December 1959 it collapsed releasing Overall the Zambezi will experience
a 40m high wall of water that killed 423 drier and more prolonged rough
people. The villages of Malpasset and periods, and more extreme floods.
Bozon were completely destroyed. Heavy
In considering the aspect of climate
rain was suggested to be one of the causes
change related to this report, it is clear
and the water levels behind the dam were
that the loss of water in both the Kariba
unusually high, delays in opening the flood- and Cahora Bassa dams, should Kariba
gates were also noted as an issue but the fail, will take some time to build up again
main cause was held to be a tectonic fault to current volumes. If we consider the
in the underlying gneiss. Coyne never time to repair or replace these two dams,
recovered from the shock of the disaster and the impact both up and downstream
died soon afterwards at the age of 69. may be significant for five - 10 years.

Refer to the SADC report “Climate change and adaptation in SADC – A Strategy of the Water
Sector.” The IPCC has identified Southern Africa as being very susceptible to climate change.
• Temperatures have risen by over • Drought-prone areas of Namibia,

0.5% over the last 100 years and a Botswana and Zimbabwe are
further 2 to 4.5 degrees are indicated likely to be more vulnerable.
in the next 50 to 100 years.
• Socio-Economic impacts relate to
• The region’s climate will an adverse effect on agriculture
become hotter and dryer. production and diminishing fishing
resources in large lakes due to rising
• A downward trend in rainfall patterns has temperatures, limiting food supplies.
been experienced with frequent droughts.
• Previously successful eradication
• Beside volumes, precipitation patterns programmes may need to be re-instated
are also expected to change in intensity as a resurgence of water-related
and frequency. More extreme events vector borne diseases may increase.
and longer periods between rainfalls.
• The impact on the GDP of counties
• Southern Africa is one of the five regions within the region, impacting economic
in the world exposed to serious risk of growth, attributed specifically to drought
flooding in coastal and deltaic areas. in the past has been significant.

A recent report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
notes that “off the charts heat” is getting to be a monthly thing. They calculated
that the world’s average temperature in June 2015 hit 61.48 degrees Fahrenheit
breaking last year’s record by 0.22 degrees. Usually temperature records are
broken by one or two one-hundredths of a degree, not nearly a quarter of a
degree. Consider the following picture when the half-year is considered:
Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles Jun 2015

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information
Data Source: GHCN-M version 3.3.0 & ERSST version 4.0.0
Flooding and Flash Flooding
In January 2013 and again in 2015, significant flooding occurred in the region.
In 2013, flash flooding across Zimbabwe’s Masvingo and Matabeleland provinces, which are
normally dry areas caused substantial damage to infrastructure and affected an estimated
8,490 people. Further across the region, floods occurred in Botswana and Malawi with
30,785 people impacted and in Mozambique about 250,000 people were affected.
The 2015 floods impacted mostly in Mozambique and Malawi with more than
100 people killed and 15,000 displaced. Reuters has commented that a lack
of funds has hampered the region’s to tackle the effects of the disaster.

Seasonal rainfall patterns are evident in Earthquake
the region and it is understood the repairs
to the Kariba dam could only commence
in May 2015, outside of this rainfall With thanks to the University of Pretoria
window. What impact could unseasonable Hazard Centre, it seems that in terms of
rain have on the rehabilitation project we seismicity, the country of Zimbabwe can be
might ask – potentially delay could be a viewed under three broad seismic zones –
major factor but the inability to use the the eastern area, the Zambezi basin and
floodgates effectively may be serious. the central area. Seismic activity is mostly
centred along the Zimbabwean borders with
Some reports suggest that the capital of Mozambique to the east in the Deka fault
Zambia, Lusaka, would be totally flooded if zone in the Hwange area. Further activity
the Kariba Dam were to fail catastrophically, may be seen to the northwest and over the
others suggest that this comment was mid-Zambezi basin the Lake Kariba area.
“media hype” and this might only occur if
the Dam was at its maximum capacity. Seismic events of magnitude higher
than 5.0 have occurred in the mid-
At the time of writing this report, Zambia Zambezi basin. Some of the events in
is facing a reduction of 300 to 560 MW the region that are worthy of review:
of hydro power generating capacity
because of the lack of rainfall, leading to • 25 June 2004 and 15 March 2008
restrictions in water flow through the hydro Nyamandlovu earthquakes at
station. They are also seeking to import 4.3 magnitude, these were felt in
power to alleviate these shortages. Bulawayo some 120km away.
Business Report comments that the region is • 22 February 2006 Mozambique

headed for a major crisis because of the worst earthquake at 7.0 magnitude, which
drought in key crop producing centres since killed four people near the Zimbabwe
1992 according to the UN Food and Nutrition border with Mozambique and caused
Security Working Group. The report claims that a lot of destruction in the Chipinge
the region’s maize production belt had been area and is regarded as one of
hampered by a drought since February 2015 the biggest events in Africa.
and the expected maize crop is estimated to be
• 31 August 2010 saw a 5 magnitude
31% less than last year and 20 percent below
movement of the ground which is
the average for the last five years. The cost of
observed as an earthquake in the Lake
importing the required grain will translate to
Kariba Cluster (mid-Zambezi basin).
a price increase from July to December 2015
Seismic activity in the area is related
but will have a knock on impact for other
to the extra water pressures created
food stuffs such as red meat and eggs that are
in micro cracks and fissures in the
reliant on grain for fodder. If we consider this
ground under and near the reservoir.
current situation, what could the impact be
without the Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams
over potentially a five to eight year period?
Details of other historical seismic events

are available and the potential for future
significant events is worthy of consideration.

6.3 Geopolitical Risks
The geopolitical category covers the areas of politics, diplomacy, conflict, crime and
global governance. These risks range from terrorism, disputes over resources and war
to governance being undermined by corruption, organised crime and illicit trade.
a. Aon’s 2015 Terrorism and Political Violence c. Geo-economics. The WEF is clear that business,
Risk Map indicates that the countries under like government, must master geo-economics.
review of this report are not significantly Today we are faced with a host of ever
at risk however border management may more tightly interconnected factors: from
need further consideration. Tanzania has international security, jurisdiction, global
been rated at an increased risk, whereas governance and diplomacy, combined with a
Mozambique has reduced in risk. global economic landscape in which leaders
struggle to interpret the interconnected
b. In the event of a catastrophic failure of complexities of monetary and fiscal regimes,
the Kariba Dam, support from world-wide currency shocks, shifting international
aid agencies will be key to the ability to trade frameworks, global investment, talent
minimise the impact of this event. Little migration and a host of other globalised
detail is currently available around any macroeconomic forces. For business, this
proposed disaster management or emergency uncertainty offers huge risks. Companies that
preparedness and response plans around fail to understand the impact that geopolitical
the rehabilitation project. It is suggested events have on their respective industries will
that the response to such a disaster lose, however for those who are informed
must be immediate, comprehensive, and and engaged, opportunities will dominate.
demonstrate very clear lines of command.
A mechanism needs to be in place to As this report involves several countries
quickly draw upon external resources in Africa with differing economic and
available at higher levels of government, political profiles, it is important to take
or even internationally, when the local a multi-country and interconnected
level of response will not be sufficient. approach to risks and opportunities
arising from the Kariba Dam project.
The failure of the Kariba Dam and

the consequent failure of the Cahora
Bassa Dam would seriously impact the
economies of the region for many years.

6.4 Societal Risks
The societal category captures risks related to social stability – such as severe income
disparities, food crises and dysfunctional cities – and public health, such as pandemics,
antibiotic-resistant bacteria and the rising burden of chronic disease.
a. The ZRA is undertaking the necessary e. In terms of flora and fauna, little
Environmental and Social Management information is currently available. It is
Assessment, along with the associated suggested that the outcome of the ESIA
instruments to ensure the sustainability of the might provide more information.
project through appropriate preventative,
mitigation and monitoring interventions. f. There is debate on whether Lusaka, the
These are to be finalised in 2015, before capital of Zambia, would be flooded –
the commencement of the works, which sources comment that only if the Kariba
are themselves expected to be completed Dam was full at the time of the breech would
by 2019 and 2023 for the plunge pool Lusaka be materially impacted. Downstream
and spillway components respectively. impacts are not clear but severe flooding
in and around the area of Tete is extremely
b. In terms of the environmental and social likely as is further flooding in Mozambique.
impact, an ESIA was to be completed by
February 2015, complying with the legal g. The impact on agriculture and fishing
and regulatory requirements of both the in the region is likely to lead to food
Zambia and Zimbabwe Environmental Acts shortages that may impact the entire region
as well as WB and AfDB environmental and and result in increasing food prices and
social safeguards policies. Provision within further exacerbate levels of poverty.
the funding has also been made for an
ESMP. The AfDB Project Appraisal report h. The Tokwe-Mukosi Dam is located in
indicates that the final ESIA and ESMP Masvingo, Zimbabwe and is used for water
reports will be produced and disclosed storage, flood control, irrigation, fisheries
before commencement of works and on and power generation. Construction began
relevant web sites for 120 days prior to in 1998 and the dam was opened in 2015 –
first disbursement. As at the 30 June 2015, construction cost US$200m. The Guardian
there were no updates on the WB, AfDB newspaper advised in April 2014 that the
or ZRA sites related to the ESIA or ESMP – flooding involving the partially built dam
has this already delayed the start date? which had occurred in February 2014
had shown that disaster preparedness in
c. From an environmental and social context,
Zimbabwe is extremely weak. The flooding
according to the WB, the two rehabilitation
displaced thousands of people and forced the
components of the plunge pool and the
government to declare a national disaster.
spillway, include in situ works on existing
infrastructure to secure operations in i. The impact on tourism of the recent Ebola
accordance with international dam safety virus outbreak was considerable and
standards. The rehabilitation measures would be further impacted with a major
are not expected to have any significant catastrophe such as the failure of the Kariba
adverse environmental or social impacts. Dam. Flooding brings with it an increase
d. There appears to be consensus that the failure in waterborne diseases which are caused
of the Kariba Dam would impact 3.5 million by pathogenic microorganisms that most
people living downstream, with significant commonly are transmitted in contaminated
loss of life and livelihoods. There is no detail fresh water. Infection commonly results
around the anticipated loss of life that this during bathing, washing, drinking, in the
event may lead to however sufficient warning preparation of food, or the consumption
of the flood would materially reduce any of food thus infected. Various forms of
loss of life if people are able to move to waterborne diarrheal disease probably are
higher ground in good time. Communication the most prominent examples, and affect
and adequate emergency planning will mainly children in developing countries;
be critical in reducing loss of life. according to the World Health Organization.

6.5 Technological Risks
The technological category covers major risks related to the growing centrality of
information and communication technologies to individuals, businesses and governments.
These include cyber-attacks, infrastructure disruptions and data loss.
a. Media reporting. In June 2014, a report d. Twitter. In addition to warning alerts in terms
in the New Civil Engineer International of flooding, as a social networking tool used
magazine commented that “the ZRA by millions, Twitter can be a great help in
regrets the misinterpretation on the facts disaster operations according to researchers
about the Kariba Dam wall impending who have created real-time flood maps using
collapse which caused alarm among data from tweets. This information is also
stakeholders and the public in general”. extremely useful to find people who are
affected or to support evacuation planning.
There were a number of reports in the
media dealing with the problem identified e. Print media reporting on the Kariba
and they vary in credibility depending on problem and the rehabilitation project
the audience they desire to influence, some continues to be of interest with differing
of the comments have been found to be points of view depending on the angle
rather exaggerated and other issues have and publication. Have a look at the
been played down. It seems that funding for Daily Maverick article below:
the rehabilitation of the Dam was the key
motivator and if we make this assumption http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/
then reporting on the problem was extremely article/2014-05-13-analysis-a-damn-
successful. The balance between creating crazy-idea/#.VZEefXkw-vG
a scenario designed to encourage funding “When the huge floods hit in 2000 and
yet balanced and factual enough not to again in 2001, Kariba engineers opened
cause panic has to be a real challenge all their sluices to protect the dam but
and a potential reputation nightmare. failed to inform their counterparts at
b. Cell phone communication. “A simple text Cahora Bassa. To prevent overtopping,
message is the difference between success Cahora Bassa suddenly opened all eight
and failure” according to the WB and whilst sluices, causing the wall to vibrate so
this research was focused on reminding violently on one occasion that engineers
forgetful patients to take their medication, are reported to have fled the wall”
specific, focused text messages may make So, it seems that communication downstream
a considerable difference in the event of a is something that needs attention.
catastrophe, perhaps warning of a severe
flood. The key however will be who takes f. Radio and Television will have a
the decision in “real-time” to send a text significant role to play in warning of a
and whether regulatory constraints will possible problem at Kariba and Cahora
hamper the ability of cell phone companies Bassa – it will be important for a clear
to provide this kind of support to customers. unambiguous message to be communicated
to support an “early warning” alert
c. Facebook and other similar “on line” sites. for people to get to higher ground.
Getting a warning message out in the event
of a problem with the dam would be useful g. Cyber risks continue to be mentioned in
through any method, including social media. practically every risk report, survey and
magazine. If we consider the countries
Have a look at the Facebook site and entities that are involved in the Kariba
‘StopTheBatokaDamOnTheZambeziRiver” for rehabilitation project, the potential for
some interesting views on this new project. such an attack impacting the project
timelines is worthy of more research.
This risk may also be an opportunity
for terrorist activity in the region.

6.6 Other Risks, Challenges and Opportunities
a. In terms of the rehabilitation project time c. A recent report in Creamer’s Mining Weekly
lines - Business Day live comment that the related to the use of powerships as a cost
short timeline for repairs is the real peril, and effective business continuity plan was of
the scope of work to be done is daunting interest. These floating power plants have
and will test the skills of some of the best generating capacities up to 500 MW and
engineering experts assembled for the task. use both natural gas and heavy fuel oil
as the power source and they can give
May 2015 - “Kariba’s real race is significant savings over the current cost
against that great enemy – time. The of operating Eskom’s Open Cycle Gas
consensus of engineers from around Turbines. Whilst this might assist the situation
the world is that Kariba has a life span in South Africa as the vessels are generally
of three years if extensive repairs are located on the coast this option may limit
not undertaken immediately”. the response in the case of this particular
The start date seems to be changing, study. What if they could be located on the
originally noted as May 2015 it now seems Kariba Dam to alleviate the current supply
to have moved to September 2015. constraints, or are they not cost-effective?
b. HKV Consultants based in the Netherlands, d. Whilst no real detail is provided, the WB
constructed an animation of the potential Implementation Status and Results Report
flood resulting from a dam breach in the for the Kariba Dam implementation Project,
Cahora Bassa dam. The short movie shows a provided as at the 31 March 2015 indicates
more detailed inundation around the city of that the current rating of risks is as follows:
Tete, the largest city along the Zambezi River
Political and Governance Moderate
in Mozambique. The flood wave reaches
Tete about 10 hours after the breach. The Macroeconomic Low
peak arrives after 24 hours. The maximum Sector Strategies and Policies Low
water levels show an increase of more than Technical Design of High
10 m, going up to 20 m on some locations. Project or Program
https://www.youtube.com/ Institutional Capacity Moderate
watch?v=KLAWQmeItm4&feature=youtu.be available for implementation
& Sustainability
Tete is a province of Mozambique and
Fiduciary Moderate
has an area of 98,417 square kilometres
and a population of 1,783,967 (2007 Environment and Social Moderate
census). The Tete Province is reported to Stakeholders Substantial
host coal reserves of approximately 6.7 Overall Substantial
billion tons, of which 3 billion tons represent
sub-economic or economic grades. Now, Full details of the Risk Assessment and
the province is regarded geologically as rating process were not available however
the largest undiscovered coal province a review of the WB Systematic Operations
in the world and it is estimated that the Risk-Rating Tool – SORT (June 25, 2014)
province could be producing 25% of Interim Guidance Note, may be of interest.
the world’s coking coal by 2025.

e. The AfDB Project Appraisal Report - December 2014 - advises that the
Bank is contributing to the creation of work synergy between the South
African Power Pool and the ZRA to enhance regional integration. In terms
of knowledge management, the project will include a capacity-building
component which includes training for technical staff of the ZRA and
skills transfer through the supervision engineer and panel of experts. The
programme will strengthen ZRA’s Emergency Preparedness Plan and
also includes a programme for improved emergency preparedness.
The project objectives are “to assist the ZRA to secure the long-term
safety and reliability of the Kariba Dam complex and to forestall a
potential dam failure that could disrupt commerce and livelihoods
in nine Southern African countries, should the dam fail”.
A review of the SADC Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan

(RIDMP) - go to http://www.ridmp-gis.org/ – is useful to appreciate the
sheer number of projects and the cost involved. Key areas have to be
unlocked to ensure that the RIDMP, as a guide to the development of
seamless and cost-effective trans-boundary infrastructure, is successful.
These areas include the development of adequate power supply,
developing transport sectors, ensuring sufficient water supply and
operating efficiently through information and communications technology.
Through the SADC corridor strategy, the RIDMP is planning to intensify

investment in roads, rail and ports and resolve issues around cross-
border trade. Demand for power in the region was expected to continue
to grow and it is hoped that sufficient power would be available to
meet demand by 2018, with a further 20% reserve by 2022.
In the short term, an investment of US$62 billion would be

ploughed into key power generation projects such as the Cahora
Bassa hydroelectric scheme in Mozambique and the Kudu
gas project in Namibia. By 2027 the RIDMP aims to generate
56,000 to 96,000 MW through these and other projects.
According to the RIDMP Executive Summary,

the sectors require funding as follows:
i. Energy US$ 12,270 billion

ii. Tourism US$ ,324 billion
iii. Transport US$ 16,650 billion
iv. ICT US$ 21,400 billion
v. Meteorology US$ ,192 billion
vi Water US$ 13,480 billion
With climate change and rainfall being so significant for

the future of the region it is hoped that sufficient research
into these specific risk areas has been considered.

f. Investment treaties - although some risks in h. Crisis management and Communication
cross-border investments are unavoidable, - there appears to be little clarity at this
some strategies protect and provide stage as to who would take the lead in
avenues of relief against these risks. One managing a major catastrophe in the
such measure of protection is the use of region. It is hoped that more clarity will be
International Investment Agreements (IIAs). provided once the ESIA is completed.
IIA’s are agreements entered into between
states for the express purpose of protecting i. Drones - there have been many press reports
and promoting foreign investments. They recently on the use and regulation of drones.
provide a state with a strong incentive to treat Willis Resilience news reported in April 2015
foreign investments fairly. One such treaty that drones are able to detect property
is the Energy Charter Treaty, which entered damage and can scan and photograph
into force in 1998, with 54 signatories and the disaster altered terrain. 3D printers are
covering economic activity in the energy then used to create a detailed model of the
sector. These IIA’s exist independently topography which can then be used to deploy
and in addition to any contractual rights search and rescue operations more quickly,
so a direct contract with a government is safely and effectively. This seems to be mainly
not necessary to gain protection. It would used in the USA currently but perhaps could
seem however, that the countries under be used proactively within the area that could
review for this report are not members. be impacted by the failure of the Kariba Dam.
g. In terms of catastrophe/disaster management j. Working with the thermal imaging

and recovery what happens right after a experts from Aon South Africa, a test was
natural disaster matters almost as much conducted on a local dam to see if thermal
as what takes place during the calamity imaging was of any value in identifying
itself according to the Economist, reporting leaks that are not visible to the naked eye
after the 7.9 magnitude earthquake that as a proactive method to identify areas
struck west of Kathmandu on the 25th April for maintenance. Further research will
2015. Injured victims need to be given the be required but it would seem that this
necessary medical treatment, rescued as process may be of value going forward.
necessary from the affected areas and
provided with water and food supplies.
The risks for survivors grow if proper
hygiene is not preserved or if those made
homeless are exposed to poor weather.

k. Procurement arrangements – AfDB have n. History should always be considered when
agreed that the rehabilitation project is looking at future risks. Construction on
being managed by the ZRA and that the the massive Birecik Dam located on the
nature of the works is such that it cannot Euphrates River was completed in 2000,
be split into separate contracts and the causing flood waters to rush into Southern
estimated contract amount for these works Turkey. For six months the waters continued
can only be sourced under joint financing to rise some 4 inches every day, threatening
considering the resources available. The WB a world of archaeological remains that
has comparable and acceptable fiduciary had only begun to be uncovered in
standards with those of the AfDB and the Zeugma. The rising waters brought about
WB has been in the lead on the project. It an immediate emergency to salvage the
seems that the WB and AfDB will be keeping artefacts, left behind by the Roman civilisation
a close watch on the ZRA who have not that once prospered in the region.
implemented a project of this size in the past.
o. In terms of insurance or risk financing,
AfDB indicate that the risks of construction, some government entities cannot or do
hydrological issues and delayed not purchase insurance protection for their
commencement of the project are key assets and liabilities. Funders will however
concerns and that appropriate mitigation require project construction risks to be
measures have been put in place. insured and many of the major insurance
brokers and insurers world-wide are able
l. The ZRA will be regulating truck loads at the to assist with the necessary insurance
Kariba Dam. One of the discussion items at protection for projects although there
the March 2015 meeting of the Council of are restrictions for dam construction.
Ministers of the ZRA was around the need to
regulate to ensure that the axle loading of In the event of failure of the Kariba dam
vehicles do not exceed the required weight it will be interesting to consider, when the
limits, to ensure safety of the dam wall. proximate cause of the failure has been
determined, whether any construction
m. Water infrastructure will be key to success risk insurance for property or liability
in the region - there is a real need to risks might be applicable or whether
ensure adequate water supply, not only for the event is deemed to be uninsured.
domestic communal consumption, but also Whichever is the case the total economic
for industry. This is one of the key objectives impact is likely to be far greater than any
of SADC’s RIDMP and it has been stated insurance cover that may be applicable.
that “future wars will be about water”.
Darlington Munhuwani, Regional Controller
for Aon in Sub-Saharan Africa, speaking
to Commercial Risk Africa Magazine on
whether insurers are innovative enough
in Africa comments that “The next level
of innovation must be to empower clients
to understand their risk profile to make
informed decisions about the type of risks
to insure and the level of cover to buy.”

7. Risk Management
As previously noted, this report is not intended operating unit that is part of a larger entity.
to be a risk assessment. Most entities now have a A recent discussion on linked-in around the
formalised risk management process within their definition of “the organisation” concluded that
companies, required in terms of good governance. the way we think about organisations in risk
management is not so simple after all, it certainly
For further guidance on enterprise risk
is a challenge when looking at a regional
management (ERM), go to the IRMSA Risk
issue such as envisaged within this report.
Management Guideline, www.irmsa.org.za
which is based on the ISO 31000 Guideline. The inter-connectedness of the risks to various
Whilst risk is currently defined as “uncertainty entities and stakeholders is evident from
around objectives” in terms of ISO 31000, the details provided in this report, further
allowing for both the negative and positive work on systems behaviour and perhaps a
aspect of risk, one of the challenges around this causal loop diagram may be of value.
specific issue is the different number of objectives
This report focuses on the Kariba and Cahora
in the region, from the various nations and their
Bassa Dams – there are a significant number of
economies, to individuals, investors and industries.
other dams that may also need some attention
When we talk about “the organisation” in and may impact countries in the region – go to
defining the context for a risk assessment we https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dams_in_
look at the organisation as being a single person South_Africa - just to see those in South Africa.
or a group that achieves its objectives by using
its own functions, responsibilities, authorities When considering the objective for this report,
and relationships. It can be a company, it was the intention to highlight the potential
corporation, enterprise, firm, partnership, charity, risks and other issues around the status of
association, or institution and can either be the Kariba Dam as reported from August
incorporated or unincorporated and be either 2014 to June 2015, and to suggest what the
privately or publicly owned. It can also be an impact of the failure of the dam might be.

8. Conclusion
Whilst we can debate whether the Kariba
Dam will fail, why it might occur and
when, there is no doubt that the impact
across the region would be devastating.
What do you, or your company need
to do to understand and manage your
risks around this potential catastrophe?
What can you or your company do to
support the people responsible for the
Kariba Dam rehabilitation project to reduce
the likelihood of this event occurring?

9. A personal observation
It has been fascinating to do the research around this project
and to improve my understanding around the various inter-
connected issues in the region, specifically around power supply
and infrastructure. The interest from friends and colleagues when
discussing various aspects of the research was fabulous and I
greatly appreciate their efforts to help me put this report together.
My learning through the process of research for this project, mostly

through the internet, has been considerable and having the time
to consider and reflect on the various aspects of this situation has
certainly led to my personal growth around the aspects of “country”
and “regional” risk management. Looking at risks and opportunities
from different stakeholder perspectives and the involvement of the
world-wide investment community in the region has been enlightening!
Water infrastructure will be key to success in the region - there is a

real need to ensure adequate water supply, not only for domestic
communal consumption, but also for industry. This is one of the key
objectives of SADC’s RIDMP and it has been stated that “future wars
will be about water”.
Kay Darbourn
Kay Darbourn is an independent consultant focusing on Risk

Management, Insurance and Risk Financing together with Business
Coaching for senior and executive management.
Go to www.futurerisk.co.za for more details of Kay’s background and
experience or Kay Darbourn on Linked-in.
You can also follow Kay on Twitter: @CoachingRisk
10. Disclaimer
While IRMSA, Aon South Africa (Pty) Ltd and Kay Darbourn (‘’the
parties’’) have endeavoured to ensure that the information and
statistical data contained in this report are accurate and relevant,
the parties do not represent that such information or statistical
data is accurate, complete or current. All estimates, opinions and
recommendations expressed in the report were made as of the date
of this report and are subject to change as circumstances within the
region and the Kariba rehabilitation project change. No warranties
of any kind, whether express or implied, including but not limited
to the warranties of non-infringement of third party rights, title,
merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose are given and the
parties expressly disclaim any liability for any errors and omissions.

11. References, links and documents used in
this report
1. African Development Bank – 34. Creamer Media’s Mining Weekly

Project Appraisal Report
35. New Civil Engineer International
2. All Africa.com – www.ncc.co.uk
3. www.africaneconomicoutlook.org 36. www.news24.com
4. Aon 2015 Terrorism and Political 37. www.newsday.co.zw
Violence Risk Map
38. www.poandpo.com
5. Bloomberg Africa, Bloomberg Business
39. www.polity.org.za
6. Business Day, Live
40. www.peacefulwarriors.net
7. Business Report
41. www.pwc.co.za
8. www.canadianunderwriter.ca
42. www.sadc.int – Regional Infrastructure
9. Commercial Risk Africa Development Master Plan, Climate
10. Daily Mail Change Adaptation in SADC
11. Daily Maverick 43. www.rivierareporter.com
12. Department of Energy SA 44. www.southerntimesafrica.com
13. Department of Public Enterprises SA 45. Sunday Times
14. Deloitte – Sub Saharan Africa 46. Spyghana.co
Power Trends, Infrastructure
47. Strategic Risk Global.com
15. The Economist
48. www.the.times.co.uk
16. www.erm.com (ESIA)
49. www.twitter.com
17. Eskom Holdings
50. United nations Food and Nutrition
18. www.fin.24.com Security Working Group
19. www.floodlist.com 51. University of Pretoria, Natural Hazard Centre
20. Creamers Engineering News 52. www.ventures-africa.com
21. Google and Google alerts 53. www.victoriafalls-guide.net
22. 2The Guardian 54. Wikipedia
23. Huffington post.com 55. Willis Resilience reports
24. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 56. World Economic Forum
25. www.imf.org 57. World Bank
26. www.internationalrivers.org 58. World Health Organisation
27. www.iol.co.za 59. You Tube
28. Linked-in ISO 31000 members 60. Zambia Daily Mail
29. Lusaka Times 61. Zambezi River Authority – web site
30. Leyland, Bryan – Large Dams, The 62. www.zamlii.org.zm
implications of immortality
63. www.zarho.org.zm
31. Marco Hartman, HKV
Consultants - Netherlands 64. The Zimbabwe Mail
32. Marsh South Africa – Geopolitical Risks 65. www.zurichna.com
33. www.mediaupdate.co.za 66. www.zpc.co.zw

12. Acronyms and abbreviations
AfDB African Development Bank Group
ASR Alkali Silicate Reaction
BBC British Broadcasting Corporation
CIWA Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (WB)
CEC Copperbelt Energy Corporation
Eskom Eskom Holdings SOC
EU European Union
ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment
ESMP Environmental and Social management Plan
HCB Hydroelectric de Cahora Bassa
IIA’s International Investment Agreements
IMF International Monetary Fund
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IRMSA Institute of Risk Management South Africa
MW Mega Watts
NERSA National Energy Regulator South Africa
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
RIDMP Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan
SADC Southern African Development Community
SAPP Southern African Power Pool
US$ United States Dollars
WEF World Economic Forum
WB World Bank
ZESCO Zambia Electricity Supply Company
ZESA Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Company
ZPC Zimbabwe Power Company
ZRB Zambezi River Basin
ZRA Zambezi River Authority

13. Support from IRMSA members
• Chairman Christopher Palm, and members of
the IRMSA Risk Intelligence Committee
• Gillian le Cordeur, IRMSA CEO and the IRMSA team
• Aon South Africa, Nico Bianco, Liza Kok and their teams
• Anne Reed, Runsums Advisory Services
• Wilna Meiring, Vodacom
14. Support from other entities and

individuals
• Darlington Munhuwani, Regional Controller for Aon in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Marco Hartman, HKV Consultants - Netherlands
• Quentin Swart, Hentus Trading, South Africa
• University of Pretoria, Natural Hazard Centre
• Alan Chemaly, Dam Specialist, Aurecon Group South Africa

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Aon South Africa (Pty) Ltd is an Authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP #20555).
Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

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IMPACT OF THE FAILURE OF

THE KARIBA DAM

THE INSTITUTE OF RISK MANAGEMENT SOUTH AFRICA

Political & Economic

Project delay from

Next 3 years are critical

Zambezi River Authority (ZRA)

2 IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015

The Event and the Impact ...

4 x bigger than the largest on record

Post Event and the Future ...

IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015 3

Completed June 2015

5. The Problem and the Kariba Dam Rehabilitation Project 16

6. Risks and Opportunities 19

11. References, links and documents used in this report 43

12. Acronyms and abbreviations 44

13. Support from IRMSA members 45

14. Support from other entities and individuals 45

15. About Aon 47

4 IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015

Knowledge, Service, Prosper

IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015 5

Kay Darbourn is a member of

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The failure or shortage of critical infrastructure is amongst the top 10

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On 3 October 2014 the BBC reported that:

a. What will happen if the Kariba Dam fails? a. Project Delay

c. Funding for the Rehabilitation Project

Whilst funding has been secured for the

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Whether you are a Shareholder, Stakeholder, Board Member, Business Executive,

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The Zambezi River

The Zambezi River winds its

IRMSA - Aon Risk Research Report | June 2015 11

The dam as seen

a. Some 420 kilometres downstream from Victoria Falls, the

From 1958 to 1961, “Operation Noah” captured and

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The ZRA operates under the Zambezi River Authority

The ZRA will manage the Kariba Dam Rehabilitation

Go to www.zaraho.org.zm for more detail on the ZRA.

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The rehabilitation project includes:

The plunge pool – media comment is that

The reshaping of the plunge pool calls

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• Benefit the South African

• Extend the life of the dam

Map of the project area and

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6.1 Economic Risks

5. The Problem and the Kariba Dam Rehabilitation Project 16

6. Risks and Opportunities 19

11. References, links and documents used in this report 43

12. Acronyms and abbreviations 44

13. Support from IRMSA members 45

14. Support from other entities and individuals 45

15. About Aon 47