STAT 111 - 2019 Spring (51056)

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Harvard Stat 111: Introduction to Statistical Inference Spring 2019

Professors: Joe Blitzstein (blitz@fas.harvard.edu), Susan Murphy (samurphy@fas.harvard.edu).


Head TFs: Shaoyang Ning (shaoyangning@fas.harvard.edu), Sundar Solai (solai@college.harvard.edu).
Lectures: TuTh 1:30 – 2:45 in Science Center Hall C.
Sections and Office Hours: There will be many weekly sections and office hours to choose from.
You’re free to attend any section. Sections are optional but highly recommended.
Course Webpage: https://canvas.harvard.edu/courses/51056
References: Lecture notes will be provided; there is no need to purchase a textbook. The notes
are complementary to what we cover in class, so you should plan to take your own notes in class in
addition to reading the notes that we post.
Computing: Some homework problems will require some coding to run simulations and/or do
statistical computations. We recommend using the R language via the RStudio interface. You can
use another language such as Python instead if you prefer, but more resources and support will be
available for R than for other languages.
Prerequisites: Stat 110 is the main prerequisite, and Stat 110 concepts will be important through-
out the course. Single variable calculus will be needed extensively. Multivariable calculus and linear
algebra, at the level of Math 19a/19b or 21a/21b, may occasionally be needed.
Description: Statistical inference provides a framework for learning from data. We will explore
inferential techniques for estimating the unknown, predicting future observations, making decisions
under uncertainty, and distinguishing correlation from causation. Both frequentist and Bayesian
approaches will be discussed, with likelihood and decision analysis bridging between these two
schools of thought. Randomization and resampling approaches to inference will also be introduced.
Grading: Grades will be based on a weighted average of scores from homework, an in-class midterm
exam on Tuesday, March 12, and a final exam whenever the Registrar says it is. The exams
will be closed-book, closed-note, closed-calculator, and closed-phone, except that you may bring
two pages of notes for the midterm (four sides) and four pages for the final (eight sides).
Let h, m, and f be your homework average, midterm score, and final exam score, respectively,
each scaled out of 100. Then your overall score for the course is given by

s = max(0.35 · h + 0.25 · m + 0.40 · f, 0.35 · h + 0.10 · m + 0.55 · f ).

Your letter grade will be in the A range if s ≥ 85, at least in the B range if s ≥ 65, at least in the
C range if s ≥ 55, and at least in the D range if s ≥ 45.
Homework: Since actively solving problems is crucial in learning statistics, there will be weekly
problem sets, normally due on Fridays at 5:00 pm. Homework must be submitted via the Canvas
course website; no submissions on paper or by email will be accepted. Your submission must be
a single PDF file, no more than 20 MB in size, except that computer code can be uploaded in a
separate supplementary file if that is more convenient for you (i.e., a .R or .Rmd file with your R
code). The outputs from your code, e.g., plots and summary statistics, must still be in your main
PDF file. Your homework can be typeset or scanned, but must be clear and easily legible.

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Late homework will accrue a penalty at a rate of 0.5 points per minute, e.g., homework submitted
at 5:12 pm will receive a 6 point penalty. To help with various circumstances (expected or
unexpected), your lowest two homework scores will be dropped; absolutely no extensions will be
given, so use these drops wisely!
Unless otherwise specified, please show your work, simplify fully, and give clear, careful justifica-
tions for your answers (using words and sentences to explain your logic, not just formulas). Include
the R code (or other code) you used, when appropriate, integrated into your main document or as
a supplementary file.
Homework Collaboration Policy: You are welcome to discuss homework problems with others,
but you must write up your solutions yourself and in your own words. For problems where coding
is required, you must write and run your own code. Additionally, you must list the names of the
students with whom you collaborated (if any). Copying someone else’s solution, or just making
trivial changes for the sake of not copying verbatim, is not acceptable. We highly recommend
starting problem sets early enough so that you have time to work hard on the problems on your
own first, before discussing them with friends/collaborators. But in any case, your solutions must
reflect your own understanding of the material, explained in your own way.

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