BLSTR Q4FY20 Results
BLSTR Q4FY20 Results
BLSTR Q4FY20 Results
Nov-19
May-18
May-19
May-17
May-20
market share in North India and has shifted room AC headquarters to Delhi. This,
however, does not seem to have created a meaningful impact in terms of gains in
market share in the North. We believe the current valuation of 29x FY21E earnings is
expensive; hence, we maintain our REDUCE rating with a revised target price of
Rs410 (25x FY21E earnings).
Market Cap Rs45.7bn/US$606mn Year to Mar FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Reuters/Bloomberg BLUS.BO/BLSTR IN Revenue (Rs bn) 52,348 53,602 52,754 59,084
Shares Outstanding (mn) 96.3 Rec. Net Income (Rs bn) 2,065 1,447 1,574 2,096
52-week Range (Rs) 867/441 EPS (Rs) 21.5 15.1 16.4 21.8
Research Analysts: Free Float (%) 61.2 % Chg YoY 46.6 (29.9) 8.8 33.1
FII (%) 10.1 P/E (x) 22.1 31.6 29.0 21.8
Renjith Sivaram
renjith.sivaram@icicisecurities.com Daily Volume (US$/'000) 861 CEPS (Rs) 13.7 5.9 10.2 14.5
+91 22 6637 7340 Absolute Return 3m (%) (39.8) EV/E (x) (Incl. Indus) 13.9 16.7 17.5 13.9
Vipin Goel Absolute Return 12m (%) (32.2) Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 4.2 1.6 2.1
vipin.goel@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6637 7397 Sensex Return 3m (%) (22.6) RoCE (%) 20.4 12.9 13.8 16.6
Sensex Return 12m (%) (12.6) RoE (%) 24.8 17.5 20.2 26.8
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Blue Star, May 14, 2020 ICICI Securities
Jan-16
Jun-16
Jan-19
Jun-19
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Aug-15
Nov-16
Aug-18
Dec-19
Mar-15
Apr-17
Oct-17
Mar-18
May-20
Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec Research
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Blue Star, May 14, 2020 ICICI Securities
Table 2: Quarterly financial trend (consolidated)
(Rs mn)
Q4FY19 Q4FY20 YoY(%) Q3FY20 QoQ(%) I-sec est. Var (%) FY19 FY20 YoY(%)
Net Sales 15,958 12,994 (18.6) 12,359 5.1 13,904 (6.5) 52,348 53,602 2.4
EBITDA 1,094 373 (65.9) 570 (34.5) 681 (45.2) 3,465 2,828 (18.4)
Margin 6.9 2.9 -400bps 4.6 -170bps 4.9 -202bps 6.6 5.3 -130bps
Depreciation 237 237 0.1 223 6.1 (32) (836.0) 749 880 17.5
Finance Cost 110 69 (37.3) 76 (8.6) 72 (4.3) 479 295 (38.4)
Other Income 61 64 5.0 61 4.3 59 7.3 247 447 81.0
PBT 808 131 (83.8) 332 (60.6) 700 (81.3) 2,484 2,100 (15.5)
Tax 7 40 498.5 120 (67.0) 196 (79.8) 420 653 55.6
Tax rate 0.8 30.2 2940bps 36.0 -580bps 28.0 220bps 16.9 31.1 1420bps
Reported PAT 798 89 (88.8) 196 (54.5) 504 (82.3) 1,900 1,433 (24.6)
Extra-ord
income (26) (8) (16) - 27 (40)
Adjusted PAT 802 91 (88.6) 213 (57.1) 504 (81.9) 2,064 1,447 (29.9)
Margin (%) 5.0 0.7 -430bps 1.7 -100bps 3.6 -292bps 3.9 2.7 -120bps
EPS (Rs) 8.4 1.0 2.2 5.3 21.6 15.1
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
EBIT
EMPS 363 32 (91.3) 390 (91.9) 330 (90.4) 1,509 1,203 (20.3)
Unitary Products 733 438 (40.3) 77 471.9 684 (36.1) 1,859 1,623 (12.7)
Professional Electronics
and Industrial Systems 161 75 (53.4) 180 (58.3) (11) (775.4) 438 543 24.1
Total 1,257 544 (56.7) 646 (15.8) 1,003 (45.7) 3,806 3,369 (11.5)
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Blue Star, May 14, 2020 ICICI Securities
Concall highlights
For EMP segment, orderbook grew 19% YoY to Rs20.4bn for FY20. Overall
orderbook grew 21% at Rs28bn implying Rs7.9bn of order intake at the end of
Q4FY20.
Project segment sales declined 22% YoY to Rs6.6bn as execution halted with
lockdown.
~10% of sites have re-opened in project segment and the management will
prioritise project execution on the basis of credit risk assessment of the customer.
As HVAC comes in the later stages of project execution (after ~90% of money is
spent), possibility of cancellation orders is unlikely; however, some projects may
get postponed.
UCP segment sales declined 15% YoY due to loss in sales in March from Covid-
19 outbreak. UCP margins declined 310bps YoY to 7.3% due to lower sales and
higher spending on advertising.
Revenue decline in Q4FY20 was in-line with market decline and the management
expects summer season sales drop to be in 30-50% range.
For FY20, cooling products margins were impacted by 80bps due to marketing
spends in water purifier business. Management targets to breakeven and have
14% market share by FY21 in water purifier business driven by e-commerce.
Market share in room AC increased marginally 20bps YoY to 12.5% for FY20.
Management expects to gain room AC sales momentum from Q2FY21 given
strong presence in tier 3, 4 and 5 markets (~55% of sales from tier 3, 4 and 5)
which are less impacted by Covid-19 and pick up in online sales. Sales will be
prioritised on the basis of quarantine zones.
Currently, inventory days for Blue Star at 60days are lower than industry
(~75days) due to controlled inventory from halted production and production
interruption due to supply issues in March.
The average consumer finance portion of FY20 was ~40% (~45% summer
season) and is expected to increase to ~55% for FY21.
Commercial refrigeration portion in cooling products business has gone up (~30%
in FY19) due to lower room AC sales. Commercial portion in project business has
also gone up (~30% in FY19) due to improved market share in chiller and VRS.
Priority is to maintain a healthy balance sheet first and then start working towards
supporting partners and vendors. The company plans to work on channel
financing arrangement for distributors and suppliers.
Table 5: Project segment orderbook breakup
Contribution (%) Value (Rs mn)
Offices 30 6,117
Metro rail 15 3,059
Hospitals 12 2,447
Industrials 10 2,039
Power generation T&D 5 1,020
Malls 3 612
Others 25 5,098
Total 20,390
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
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Blue Star, May 14, 2020 ICICI Securities
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Blue Star, May 14, 2020 ICICI Securities
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