BLSTR Q4FY20 Results

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Equity Research

May 14, 2020


INDIA
BSE Sensex: 32009
Blue Star REDUCE
ICICI Securities Limited Maintained
is the author and
distributor of this report Challenging growth environment continues Rs475
Blue Star’s Q4FY20 earnings performance was below expectations due to the
Q4FY20 result review rapid slowdown in demand from March 2020. The impact is expected to continue
and earnings revision and the overall demand for the peak summer season is likely to witness a drop in
turnover to the tune of 30-50% for room ACs. Project segment is also under stress
and the company has taken a provision of Rs150mn under the same. Control on
Capital Goods working capital leading to healthy cashflows has been a silver lining keeping the
debt under control. Given the overall stress in growth both under projects and
Target price: Rs410 cooling products, we cut our earnings by 6.8% and 9.2% for FY21E and FY22E,
respectively, and maintain our REDUCE rating with a revised target price of Rs410
Earnings revision (earlier: Rs440).
(%) FY20E FY21E  Demand stress likely to continue under cooling products: Weak demand
Sales ↓ 3.2 ↓ 3.2 environment under cooling products for all segments including commercial
EBI DA ↓ 12.4 ↓ 12.3 refrigeration is expected to continue impacting the overall growth in FY21E. The
EPS ↓ 6.8 ↓ 9.2 normalisation of demand will come with a lag as the risk of the Covid-19 pandemic will
continue even in a scenario in which the lockdown is lifted.
Target price revision  Project execution to remain slow: Although ~10% of sites have re-opened in
Rs410 from Rs440
project segment, management prioritises project execution on the basis of credit risk
Shareholding pattern assessment of the customer in order to improve chances of collections. The current
Sep Dec Mar
segmental orderbook is at Rs20.4bn (0.7x TTM project sales) and the overall
’19 ’19 ’20 orderbook at Rs29.5bn.
Promoters 38.8 38.8 38.8  Room AC inventory at controlled levels: Due to lower demand because of the
Institutional
investors 31.3 31.3 31.6 pandemic, the average inventory days for room AC industry is expected to be
MFs and others 18.4 18.8 20.9 ~75days. However, due to supply issues in March beginning and halted production in
Insurance
FIIs
0.7
12.2
0.7
11.8
0.6
10.1
March end, the company’s current inventory is lower than industry at 60days. The
Others 29.9 29.9 29.6 management considers ideal inventory levels at 30days. Net working capital days
Source: NSE reduced to 46days from 58days in Q2FY20 due to increase in trade payables.
 Delay in scale-up of water purifier business hits margins and RoEs: The water
purifier and air purifier segments continue to be in investment phase. This in itself will
Price chart keep the overall margins restrained till the segments reach a critical volume. The
900 company targets to breakeven and have 14% market share in water purifiers by
FY21.
800  Maintain REDUCE due to margin stress: Company may need to raise more debt to
700 withstand near- to medium-term headwinds; hence, it has recently taken board
(Rs)

approval to raise up to Rs5bn of non-convertible debentures. Delay in scale-up of


600 water purifier division is adversely affecting the overall margins and RoC. We believe
500 it will be difficult for the company to penetrate the water purifier market given strong
domestic competition. Blue Star is also unable to expand its footprint in export
400
geographies as it had earlier targeted. The company has been trying to improve its
Nov-18
Nov-17

Nov-19
May-18

May-19
May-17

May-20

market share in North India and has shifted room AC headquarters to Delhi. This,
however, does not seem to have created a meaningful impact in terms of gains in
market share in the North. We believe the current valuation of 29x FY21E earnings is
expensive; hence, we maintain our REDUCE rating with a revised target price of
Rs410 (25x FY21E earnings).
Market Cap Rs45.7bn/US$606mn Year to Mar FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Reuters/Bloomberg BLUS.BO/BLSTR IN Revenue (Rs bn) 52,348 53,602 52,754 59,084
Shares Outstanding (mn) 96.3 Rec. Net Income (Rs bn) 2,065 1,447 1,574 2,096
52-week Range (Rs) 867/441 EPS (Rs) 21.5 15.1 16.4 21.8
Research Analysts: Free Float (%) 61.2 % Chg YoY 46.6 (29.9) 8.8 33.1
FII (%) 10.1 P/E (x) 22.1 31.6 29.0 21.8
Renjith Sivaram
renjith.sivaram@icicisecurities.com Daily Volume (US$/'000) 861 CEPS (Rs) 13.7 5.9 10.2 14.5
+91 22 6637 7340 Absolute Return 3m (%) (39.8) EV/E (x) (Incl. Indus) 13.9 16.7 17.5 13.9
Vipin Goel Absolute Return 12m (%) (32.2) Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 4.2 1.6 2.1
vipin.goel@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6637 7397 Sensex Return 3m (%) (22.6) RoCE (%) 20.4 12.9 13.8 16.6
Sensex Return 12m (%) (12.6) RoE (%) 24.8 17.5 20.2 26.8
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Blue Star, May 14, 2020 ICICI Securities

Outlook and valuation:


The stock is currently trading at 29x 21E EPS of Rs16.4. We estimate revenue CAGR
of 5% during FY20-FY22E, with earnings CAGR of 20%. Pricing pressure and higher
spending towards branding and marketing are likely to keep the overall margins under
stress. Given the near- to medium-term headwinds in terms of margins and inability to
scale up new segments like water purifiers, we believe, the current valuations of 29x
FY21E earnings are expensive. Hence, we maintain REDUCE with a revised target
price of Rs410 (25x FY21E earnings).

Focus towards technology, in-house manufacturing and introduction of new products


will be long-term growth drivers for Blue Star. For now, however, in view of difficulties
in increasing market share in North, improving market share of water purifier segment,
and volatility in project division earnings, we value Blue Star at 25% discount to its
mean multiple of 33x 1-year forward earnings.

Chart 1: One-year forward P/E chart

1-yr fwd. P/E (x) Mean +1 S.D. -1 S.D.


60
55
50
45 43
40
33
35
30
25 22
20
15
10
Jun-13

Jan-16

Jun-16

Jan-19

Jun-19
Nov-13

Apr-14

Sep-14

Aug-15

Nov-16

Aug-18

Dec-19
Mar-15

Apr-17

Oct-17

Mar-18

May-20
Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec Research

Table 1: Earnings revision (consolidated)


FY21E FY22E
Rs mn Earlier Revised YoY (%) Earlier Revised YoY (%)
Revenue 54,512 52,754 -3.2 61,053 59,084 -3.2
EBIDTA 3,328 2,916 -12.4 4,249 3,728 -12.3
PAT 1,689 1,574 -6.8 2,307 2,096 -9.2
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

2
Blue Star, May 14, 2020 ICICI Securities
Table 2: Quarterly financial trend (consolidated)
(Rs mn)
Q4FY19 Q4FY20 YoY(%) Q3FY20 QoQ(%) I-sec est. Var (%) FY19 FY20 YoY(%)
Net Sales 15,958 12,994 (18.6) 12,359 5.1 13,904 (6.5) 52,348 53,602 2.4
EBITDA 1,094 373 (65.9) 570 (34.5) 681 (45.2) 3,465 2,828 (18.4)
Margin 6.9 2.9 -400bps 4.6 -170bps 4.9 -202bps 6.6 5.3 -130bps
Depreciation 237 237 0.1 223 6.1 (32) (836.0) 749 880 17.5
Finance Cost 110 69 (37.3) 76 (8.6) 72 (4.3) 479 295 (38.4)
Other Income 61 64 5.0 61 4.3 59 7.3 247 447 81.0
PBT 808 131 (83.8) 332 (60.6) 700 (81.3) 2,484 2,100 (15.5)
Tax 7 40 498.5 120 (67.0) 196 (79.8) 420 653 55.6
Tax rate 0.8 30.2 2940bps 36.0 -580bps 28.0 220bps 16.9 31.1 1420bps
Reported PAT 798 89 (88.8) 196 (54.5) 504 (82.3) 1,900 1,433 (24.6)
Extra-ord
income (26) (8) (16) - 27 (40)
Adjusted PAT 802 91 (88.6) 213 (57.1) 504 (81.9) 2,064 1,447 (29.9)
Margin (%) 5.0 0.7 -430bps 1.7 -100bps 3.6 -292bps 3.9 2.7 -120bps
EPS (Rs) 8.4 1.0 2.2 5.3 21.6 15.1
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 3: Quarterly segmental trend (consolidated)


(Rs mn)
Q4FY19 Q4FY20 YoY(%) Q3FY20 QoQ(%) I-sec est. Var (%) FY19 FY20 YoY(%)
EMPS 8,423 6,604 (21.6) 7,588 (13.0) 7,192 (8.2) 27,481 28,267 2.9
Unitary Products 7,036 5,963 (15.3) 4,202 41.9 6,327 (5.8) 22,690 23,006 1.4
Professional Electronics
and Industrial Systems 499 427 (14.4) 569 (24.9) 384 11.1 2,178 2,329 7.0
Total 15,958 12,994 (18.6) 12,359 5.1 13,904 (6.5) 52,348 53,602 2.4

EBIT
EMPS 363 32 (91.3) 390 (91.9) 330 (90.4) 1,509 1,203 (20.3)
Unitary Products 733 438 (40.3) 77 471.9 684 (36.1) 1,859 1,623 (12.7)
Professional Electronics
and Industrial Systems 161 75 (53.4) 180 (58.3) (11) (775.4) 438 543 24.1
Total 1,257 544 (56.7) 646 (15.8) 1,003 (45.7) 3,806 3,369 (11.5)

EBIT Margin (%)


EMPS 4.3 0.5 -380 bps 5.1 -470 bps 4.6 -410 bps 5.5 4.3 -120 bps
Unitary Products 10.4 7.3 -310 bps 1.8 550 bps 10.8 -350 bps 8.2 7.1 -110 bps
Professional Electronics
and Industrial Systems 32.2 17.6 -1470 bps 31.6 -1410 bps (2.9) 2050 bps 20.1 23.3 320 bps
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 4: Financial assumptions (consolidated)


(Rs mn)
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
EMP projects 17,036 18,760 22,334 23,611 27,481 28,267 27,419 30,709
Growth YoY (%) 7.2 10.1 19.1 5.7 16.4 2.9 -3.0 12.0
Unitary products 13,317 15,797 19,974 20,887 22,690 23,006 23,006 25,767
Growth YoY (%) 23.7 18.6 26.4 4.6 8.6 1.4 - 12.0
Prof electr 1,467 1,690 1,915 1,983 2,178 2,329 2,329 2,609
Growth YoY (%) 18.2 15.2 13.3 3.6 9.8 7.0 - 12.0
Others - 2,051 -370 - - - - -
Net revenue 31,819 38,298 43,852 46,481 52,348 53,602 52,754 59,084
EBIT
EMP projects 540 781 907 1,220 1,509 1,203 1,234 1,535
Unitary products 1,448 1,621 1,679 1,681 1,859 1,623 1,725 2,061
Prof electronics 307 304 325 240 438 543 466 522
Others - - - - - - - -
Total 2,294 2,705 2,910 3,140 3,806 3,369 3,425 4,119
EBIT margin (%)
EMP projects 3.2 4.2 4.1 5.2 5.5 4.3 4.5 5.0
Unitary products 10.9 10.3 8.4 8.0 8.2 7.1 7.5 8.0
Prof electronics 20.9 18.0 17.0 12.1 20.1 23.3 20.0 20.0
Total 7.2 7.1 6.6 6.8 7.3 6.3 6.5 7.0
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

3
Blue Star, May 14, 2020 ICICI Securities

Concall highlights
 For EMP segment, orderbook grew 19% YoY to Rs20.4bn for FY20. Overall
orderbook grew 21% at Rs28bn implying Rs7.9bn of order intake at the end of
Q4FY20.
 Project segment sales declined 22% YoY to Rs6.6bn as execution halted with
lockdown.
 ~10% of sites have re-opened in project segment and the management will
prioritise project execution on the basis of credit risk assessment of the customer.
 As HVAC comes in the later stages of project execution (after ~90% of money is
spent), possibility of cancellation orders is unlikely; however, some projects may
get postponed.
 UCP segment sales declined 15% YoY due to loss in sales in March from Covid-
19 outbreak. UCP margins declined 310bps YoY to 7.3% due to lower sales and
higher spending on advertising.
 Revenue decline in Q4FY20 was in-line with market decline and the management
expects summer season sales drop to be in 30-50% range.
 For FY20, cooling products margins were impacted by 80bps due to marketing
spends in water purifier business. Management targets to breakeven and have
14% market share by FY21 in water purifier business driven by e-commerce.
 Market share in room AC increased marginally 20bps YoY to 12.5% for FY20.
 Management expects to gain room AC sales momentum from Q2FY21 given
strong presence in tier 3, 4 and 5 markets (~55% of sales from tier 3, 4 and 5)
which are less impacted by Covid-19 and pick up in online sales. Sales will be
prioritised on the basis of quarantine zones.
 Currently, inventory days for Blue Star at 60days are lower than industry
(~75days) due to controlled inventory from halted production and production
interruption due to supply issues in March.
 The average consumer finance portion of FY20 was ~40% (~45% summer
season) and is expected to increase to ~55% for FY21.
 Commercial refrigeration portion in cooling products business has gone up (~30%
in FY19) due to lower room AC sales. Commercial portion in project business has
also gone up (~30% in FY19) due to improved market share in chiller and VRS.
 Priority is to maintain a healthy balance sheet first and then start working towards
supporting partners and vendors. The company plans to work on channel
financing arrangement for distributors and suppliers.
Table 5: Project segment orderbook breakup
Contribution (%) Value (Rs mn)
Offices 30 6,117
Metro rail 15 3,059
Hospitals 12 2,447
Industrials 10 2,039
Power generation T&D 5 1,020
Malls 3 612
Others 25 5,098
Total 20,390
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

4
Blue Star, May 14, 2020 ICICI Securities

Financial summary (consolidated)


Table 6: Profit & loss statement Table 8: Cashflow statement
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) (Rs mn, year ending March 31)
FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Total Income 52,348 53,602 52,754 59,084 Operating Cashflow 3,274 2,734 2,502 3,190
Operating Expenses 48,883 50,774 49,838 55,356 Working Capital Changes (335) 1,203 (2,202) (503)
EBITDA 3,465 2,828 2,916 3,728 Capital Commitments (924) (1,080) (1,029) (1,249)
% margins 6.6 5.3 5.5 6.3 Free Cashflow 2,015 2,857 (728) 1,438
Depreciation & Amortisation 749 880 595 704 Cashflow from Investing
EBIT 2,716 1,948 2,321 3,025 Activities 275 198 (168) (204)
Gross Interest 479 295 402 460 Issue of Share Capital 1 - - -
Other Income 247 447 244 244 Buyback of shares - - - -
Recurring PBT 2,485 2,100 2,163 2,808 Inc (Dec) in Borrowings (254) 1,044 1,251 835
Add: Extraordinaries 27 (40) - - Interest paid (479) (295) (402) (460)
Add: Share in associates - - - - Dividend paid (865) (1,152) (2,182) (720)
PBT 2,511 2,060 2,163 2,808 Extraordinary Items/Others (493) (722) (321) (864)
Less: Taxes 420 653 584 708 Chg. in Cash & Bank balance 201 1,930 (2,550) 25
Less: Minority Interest & Source: Company data, I-Sec research
Share in associates 191 (26) 5 5
Net Income (Reported) 1,901 1,432 1,574 2,096
Adjusted Net Income 2,065 1,447 1,574 2,096 Table 9: Key ratios
Source: Company data, I-Sec research (Year ending March 31)
FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Table 7: Balance sheet Per Share Data (in Rs.)
Diluted adjusted EPS 21.5 15.1 16.4 21.8
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) Recurring Cash EPS 13.7 5.9 10.2 14.5
FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Dividend per share (DPS) 10.0 20.0 7.5 10.0
Assets Book Value per share (BV) 91.1 81.7 80.8 82.8
Total Current Assets 26,606 26,512 26,682 29,387
of which cash & cash eqv. 1,009 2,939 390 414 Growth Ratios (%)
Total Current Liabilities & Operating Income 12.6 2.4 (1.6) 12.0
Provisions 21,315 22,056 21,186 23,688 EBITDA 30.3 (18.4) 3.1 27.8
Net Current Assets 5,291 4,456 5,496 5,699 Recurring Net Income 46.6 (29.9) 8.8 33.1
Investments 831 796 825 857 Diluted adjusted EPS 46.6 (29.9) 8.8 33.1
Other Non-Current Assets 2,343 3,155 2,815 3,064 Diluted Recurring CEPS 70.7 (56.9) 72.7 42.2
Net Fixed Assets 3,730 3,930 4,363 4,909
Goodwill - - - - Valuation Ratios
Total Assets 12,194 12,336 13,500 14,528 P/E 22.1 31.6 29.0 21.8
P/CEPS 34.7 80.6 46.7 32.8
Liabilities P/BV 5.2 5.8 5.9 5.7
Borrowings 3,445 4,489 5,741 6,576 EV / EBITDA 13.9 16.7 17.5 13.9
Deferred Tax Liability - - - - EV / Operating Income 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9
Minority Interest 18 23 28 33 EV / Operating FCF (pre -
Equity Share Capital 193 193 193 193 Capex) 16.4 12.0 169.9 19.3
Face Value per share (Rs) 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Reserves & Surplus 8,538 7,631 7,538 7,727 Operating Ratios
Net Worth 8,731 7,824 7,731 7,919 Raw Material/Sales (%) 75.1 75.0 74.5 74.0
Total Liabilities 12,194 12,336 13,500 14,528 SG&A/Sales (%) 10.2 10.7 10.6 10.1
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Other Income / PBT (%) 9.9 21.3 11.3 8.7
Effective Tax Rate (%) 16.7 31.7 27.0 25.2
NWC / Total Assets (%) 35.1 12.3 37.8 36.4
Inventory Turnover (days) 60.6 59.2 62.1 58.4
Receivables (days) 77.5 57.0 73.0 73.0
Payables (days) 114.6 113.8 116.8 116.8
Net D/E Ratio (x) 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.8

Return/Profitability Ratios (%)


Recurring Net Income Margins 3.9 2.7 3.0 3.5
RoCE 20.4 12.9 13.8 16.6
RoNW 24.8 17.5 20.2 26.8
Dividend Payout Ratio 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.5
Dividend Yield 2.1 4.2 1.6 2.1
EBITDA Margins 6.6 5.3 5.5 6.3
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

5
Blue Star, May 14, 2020 ICICI Securities

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New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)
BUY: >15 return; ADD: 5 to 15 return; HOLD: Negative 5 to Positive 5 return; REDUCE: Negative 5 to Negative 15 return; SELL: < negative 15 return

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