Six Dead-Ends,

One Cliff-Edge,
Only One Way Out
Foreword by Margaret Beckett MP and Dominic Grieve QC MP
Contents
3 Foreword

5 Dead-end 1: Try to negotiate the removal or

time limitation of the backstop

7 Dead-end 2: Try to negotiate a Northern

Ireland-only backstop

9 Dead-end 3: Get the existing Withdrawal

Agreement through Parliament

11 Dead-end 4: Call a general election

13 Dead-end 5: Revoke Article 50

14 Dead-end 6: Request an extension of Article

50 for further negotiations

16 The cliff-edge: Leave with no deal

18 The way out: A People’s Vote

2
Foreword
One of the most depressing features of Withdrawal Agreement. The EU will not
the Conservative leadership election agree to remove or put a time limit on
has been how a contest triggered by the Irish backstop, which simply
Theresa May’s acceptance that she reflects an existing truth about our
had exhausted her options for commitment to the Good Friday
delivering Brexit has been dominated Agreement. A Northern Ireland-only
by endless debate over those same backstop, even if negotiable, would not
failed options. The more time that has be acceptable to Parliament. It is in
passed since March 29 - and the neither of the two main parties’
closer we have stumbled towards the interests to hold a general election.
new deadline of October 31 - the more And, despite the blithe assurances
the facts of our predicament have from these Conservative leadership
been obscured by re-heated candidates that leaving with No Deal
proposals that are unattractive, would be a price worth paying, there is
undeliverable and increasingly no majority for it in Parliament – and
unedifying. certainly no mandate for it from the
country.
Both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt
insist that as prime minister they could It is, of course, possible that the new
secure the kind of concessions from prime minister will attempt to run
the EU that Theresa May has sought in down the clock towards No Deal
vain over two years of negotiations anyway, using various means to block
that left our country humiliated. Both MPs having any say on the matter. To
say, as she sometimes did, that if they go down this path would be a gross
cannot secure a good deal they will insult to our parliamentary democracy
take Britain out of the EU with No Deal. and we do not believe it would work.
Meanwhile people who should know The fact remains that there is a large
better have speculated that other majority in the House of Commons
options previously rejected either by against No Deal and there are
Theresa May or by Parliament – from numerous devices that could be
calling a general election to deployed to block it, including – as a
proroguing Parliament – could offer a last resort – collapsing the
way out of the crisis. Government.

It is time for a reality check. When And yet an accidental No Deal cannot
Parliament returns from summer entirely be ruled out because, to avoid
recess, there will be just 59 days until it, MPs will have to vote for something.
the Article 50 period is due to expire. When every other option has been
The new prime minister, and every MP, ruled out, a final say referendum – a
will have to face up to some hard facts People’s Vote – can emerge as the
and make some hard choices. There is solution to this crisis. We recognise that
no majority in Parliament for the this is not the first preference of many

3
Foreword
MPs on both sides of the question and, endless negotiations, people are now
indeed, no one who went through the being told by both candidates to
2016 referendum can look forward to become our next prime minister that
the prospect of another with unalloyed the vote in 2016 was for something
joy. But a new vote would be different much harsher, even for No Deal. This
from the last one not least because it would be an outcome that would
would be about whether or not we threaten the economy, public services
want to proceed with a specific, rather and the Union. Furthermore, as things
than abstract, Brexit proposal. It would stand, the only people who would have
provide a clear timetable towards been given a say over it are the 0.25%
resolution of Brexit one way or another, of the population who are members of
as well as the prospect of a stable and the Conservative Party.
lasting settlement for the country.
Above all, for most MPs, it is preferable That is simply not right, and it is why, for
to crashing out with No Deal. many of us, this is now coming down
to a simple question of democracy.
In the indicative votes process in early The question is this: can we allow a
April, a final say referendum was the destructive Brexit to be forced on our
most popular proposal, with 280 votes. country, without the people having the
In the face of an imminent No Deal final say? Although this question will, of
departure, there is every reason to course, affect jobs, families and our
expect support in Parliament to grow. country for generations to come, the
Indeed the Labour leadership has now answer does not need to be
agreed that the decision should go determined by whether you voted
back to the people. And, following a Leave or Remain three years ago, but
much-anticipated Cabinet reshuffle whether you think there is any other
by a new prime minister, there are route to a lasting and legitimate
likely to be more Conservative MPs settlement.
opposed to either No Deal or a General
Election and open to our arguments As such, a People’s Vote offers both a
on the backbenches. democratic and a pragmatic solution
to a towering political problem that will
Brexit was sold on the basis that the UK soon once more become a national
would quickly and easily secure a crisis.
comprehensive agreement on trade
and security with Europe that would Margaret Beckett MP
benefit our economy, our public Dominic Grieve QC MP
services and the Union. After three
years of pain, broken promises and

4
Dead-end 1: Try to negotiate
the removal or time
limitation of the backstop
Who is proposing it? Why it’s a dead-end

Both the Conservative leadership The EU has consistently opposed

candidates have said they will either removal of the backstop
seek to remove the backstop entirely
or fundamentally change it. Both have The backstop is intended to ensure an
suggested they will be able to secure open border is maintained between
changes that Theresa May was unable Northern Ireland and Ireland after
to. Brexit and to protect the Good Friday
Agreement. The EU has always held the
Boris Johnson has said “we need to view that without a non-time-limited
junk the backstop”1 He has also backstop, there is no Withdrawal
proposed both a time limit and a Agreement. This view has not
unilateral exit mechanism, saying: “We changed. As Michel Barnier has said:
would have to be able to get out by a “An insurance is of no use if it is time
certain time. And we’d have to be able limited… We cannot tie the backstop to
to get out of our own volition.”2 a time limit.”5 The route proposed by
Johnson and Hunt has been tried
Jeremy Hunt says he wants “a deal repeatedly with no success. Following
that doesn't involve the backstop as it's the Brady amendment in January 2019,
constituted at the moment”.3 He has Theresa May sought to negotiate
claimed that “if [EU leaders] were “alternative arrangements”. These
approached by a British prime minister produced further documents clarifying
who had ideas on how to solve the the provisions of the backstop, but the
Northern Ireland backstop, they would backstop itself remained intact.
be willing to renegotiate the package”.4
When the EU granted an extension of
Article 50 to 31 October, it was
specifically to allow for ratification of
the existing deal and not for
renegotiation. EU leaders have since
underlined this position, over and over
again. Michel Barnier has said “the
Withdrawal Agreement is not going to

5
 be reopened… and that continues to new PM, particularly an avid Brexit
be the case”6; French President campaigner and a populist with
Emmanuel Macron has said it is a Trumpite attributes, the basis on which
“non-starter”7; and Irish Taoiseach Leo to say that he had delivered some
Varadkar has said “we certainly can’t fundamentally different and better
accept the deletion of the backstop”.8 deal.”11

Whoever becomes prime minister,

the problem remains the same

Both candidates have talked about

technological solutions as a substitute
for the backstop as though these
haven’t already been extensively been
debated. Boris Johnson has said “there
are abundant, abundant technical
fixes that can be introduced to make
sure that you don't have to have
checks at the border”9 - without ever
specifying what these are. Similarly,
Jeremy Hunt has said “it’s going to be a
solution that’s based around
technologies, what the Germans call
an ‘intelligent border”10 without
providing any detail.

The argument that preparing for No

Deal increases the chances of a
different deal is flawed

This idea was tested to destruction by

Theresa May. The EU knows that the UK
would be hurt most by No Deal and
sees huge risks for its credibility as a
negotiating partner if it were to
suddenly change its position. As Ivan
Rogers, the former UK permanent
representative to the EU, has said:
“Seen from the other side of the
Channel, there is simply no political
upside whatever for the 27 to offer a

6
Dead-end 2: Try to negotiate
a Northern Ireland-only
backstop
Who is proposing it? Why it’s a dead-end

The EU originally proposed that the It could destabilise the peace process
backstop should only apply to
Northern Ireland, but this was rejected A Northern Ireland-only backstop
by Theresa May because it would would create an economic and
create a customs border along the regulatory border in the Irish Sea which
Irish Sea, dividing the internal UK would, in time, lead to divergence
market and threatening the Union. The between Northern Ireland and the
EU made what it considered to be a Great Britain. Nobody knows where this
significant concession in granting a would ultimately lead but many
UK-wide ‘single customs territory’ believe it would increase the likelihood
instead, thereby avoiding the need for of a border poll and eventual Irish
customs checks between Great Britain reunification. When a Northern
and Northern Ireland. Ireland-only backstop was proposed
in February 2018, Theresa May said “no
But the idea of a Northern Ireland-only UK Prime Minister could ever agree to
backstop has resurfaced in recent it” because it would threaten the
weeks. In March, the EU offered a “constitutional integrity of the UK”.15 It
“unilateral exit” from the UK-wide parts would be extraordinary if a new prime
of the backstop, effectively reviving the minister from the Conservative &
idea.12 A new prime minister might be Unionist Party took a different view,
tempted by this option. Indeed, unless given there is no doubt that having a
and until ‘alternative arrangements’ customs border at Larne and Belfast
can be found for the Irish border, it is would be every bit as destabilising to
the only way of securing the kind of the peace process as having it at
‘Canada-style’ free trade agreement Newry and Derry and would lack
being promised by Boris Johnson. democratic legitimacy.
There has been speculation, including
by the former defence secretary The DUP would likely withdraw its
Michael Portillo13 and the former support for the Government
Northern Ireland secretary Peter Hain14
that Johnson will pursue this. The DUP is opposed to the current
backstop, but a Northern Ireland-only

7
 backstop could see them end their
confidence-and-supply agreement
with the Conservatives. When Theresa
May put forward a Northern
Ireland-only backstop,16 the DUP
suspended its support for the
Government, forcing the prime
minister to go back to the EU and
negotiate the UK-wide backstop that is
now part of the existing Withdrawal
Agreement.17 Arlene Foster, DUP Leader,
said at the time: “Our problem with the
correspondence is that she has
essentially... confirmed that there’s
going to be a Northern Ireland specific
backstop and indeed that as regards
her negotiating position, she’s going to
have Chequers for the whole of the
United Kingdom. In other words, we will
have a different regulatory regime
from the rest of the United Kingdom
and essentially there is going to be a
border down the Irish sea and no
unionist would be able to support
that.”18

8
Dead-end 3: Get the existing
Withdrawal Agreement
through Parliament
Who is proposing it? Kingdom were to evolve, but the
Withdrawal Agreement is not open for
Having failed to secure the promised renegotiation.”21
changes to the backstop, the new
prime minister is likely to consider Why it’s a dead-end
trying to force the existing Withdrawal
Agreement through the House of There is no majority for the
Commons. They wouldn’t be able to Withdrawal Agreement in Parliament
simply replicate previous votes on it –
but they could bring it forward in the The new prime minister could try to
form of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. introduce the Withdrawal Agreement
They may seek to dress it up as a Bill - the legislation needed to
qualitatively different deal. Indeed, implement the agreement between
Boris Johnson has suggested: “The the UK and EU. But the Withdrawal
good bits of it can be taken out [and Agreement itself has already been
reused].”19 Johnson is also reported to rejected by MPs on three occasions,22
have considered extending the and Theresa May declined to
transition period until December 2021, introduce the Withdrawal Agreement
to reduce the chances of falling into Bill in April after it became clear it
the backstop.20 would be voted down by an increased
margin.23 There is no evidence to
The new prime minister could seek to suggest that a further attempt to force
negotiate changes to the Political the Withdrawal Agreement through
Declaration in a bid to persuade MPs would be successful. In the most
that they have “renegotiated” the deal. recent vote, 34 Conservative MPs
Although time is very short, it is not voted against it. Since then, at least 23
implausible that this could be agreed more who voted for it in March have
before being signed off by EU leaders said they won’t do so again.24 There is
at the October European Council seemingly no chance of the DUP
summit. Indeed, the outgoing Council changing their view and voting for it.
President Donald Tusk said on 21 June: The party’s Brexit spokesman, Sammy
“We are open for talks when it comes Wilson, has said his party would vote
to the Declaration on the future UK-EU against the Withdrawal Agreement “a
relations if the position of the United thousand times”.25

9
 Changing the Political Declaration Brussels”.28
wouldn’t change the arithmetic
Both candidates to be prime minister
Even if the Political Declaration could have ruled it out
be changed before 31 October, this is
highly unlikely to be enough to get the Boris Johnson has described the
Withdrawal Agreement over the line in existing Withdrawal Agreement as
Parliament. This was proved decisively “dead”.29 Jeremy Hunt has said “[w]e
on 29 March when Theresa May are never going to have a deal to leave
attempted to remove the Political the EU with the backstop, and so it has
Declaration from the equation by to change or it has to go.”30 It would be
bringing forward a vote on only the an extraordinary reversal if whoever
Withdrawal Agreement, only to see it becomes prime minister changed
defeated for a third time.26 Since then, their view.
36 Conservative MPs have signed a
pledge to “abandon Theresa May’s
Withdrawal Agreement as dead”.27

Nor would extending the transition

period

It is hard to see how simply extending

the transition period, whilst retaining
the backstop, could change the
arithmetic in Parliament either. The
level of opposition to the backstop
within the Conservative Party is high
and has been further fuelled by Boris
Johnson’s repeated pledges to “ditch”
it. The DUP have explicitly ruled out the
idea of a longer extension. When
Theresa May said back in October 2018
it could be extended for just a few
months, DUP deputy leader Nigel
Dodds said, “an extension of the
transition period offers nothing
significant on the key issue of the
unacceptable EU backstop proposals”
and that it would simply mean the UK
“continues to pay but have no say in

10
Dead-end 4: Call a general
election
Who is proposing it? Why it’s a dead-end

The Labour Party has long been calling Most Conservatives don’t want a
for a general election and nearly all general election until Brexit is
opposition parties have said they resolved
would vote no confidence in the
Government in an effort to force one. YouGov polling suggests the
Labour could try again to force an Conservatives would be punished for
election by tabling and winning a calling an election before delivering
motion of no confidence, then waiting Brexit, securing just 20 percent of the
a further 14 days to see if an alternative vote as opposed to 33 percent if it
government could be formed. If this were held after the issue of Brexit is
were to happen, the EU would likely resolved.31 Based on current polling, the
grant an extension of the Article 50 Electoral Calculus website predicts the
timetable to allow it to take place. Conservatives would be on course to
win 193 seats, securing around 23% of
From the point of view of some the national vote.32 The same forecast
Conservatives, an election holds open shows the Brexit Party taking 68 seats –
the prospect that changing the far from enough to make a coalition or
composition of the House of confidence-and-supply agreement
Commons would mean that a Brexit realistic.
deal – or No Deal – could command
the support of a majority of MPs. A Both candidates for prime minister are
number of Conservative MPs – as well aware of the enormous risks an
as Nigel Farage – have mooted the election poses. Assuming it took place
idea of an electoral pact between the before 20 November, defeat would
Conservatives and the Brexit Party. make them the shortest serving prime
minister of the United Kingdom in
history, beating the record set when
George Canning died in August 1827
after 119 days in office. Jeremy Hunt has
warned: “If we fight an election before
delivering Brexit, we will be
annihilated.”33 Boris Johnson, whose
own seat could be at risk, has also
suggested he would only go to the
country in an election after the UK has

11
 left the EU: “[G]et Brexit over the line on under David Cameron and Theresa
October 31 and then move forward. May. Many of the five million
And when that election comes Conservative voters who backed
eventually…we need to be ready to Remain three years are now switching
wallop Corbyn for six.”34 to Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the
Greens.
Many Conservative MPs agree. They
see the parallels with the 2017 election, There is already enormous resistance
when Theresa May asked the country within the parliamentary Conservative
for a bigger majority so she could Party to the idea. David Gauke, the
deliver a hard Brexit – and lost. Iain Justice Secretary, has warned that
Duncan Smith, Boris Johnson’s going into an election backing No Deal
campaign chairman, has said: “What is “would put a ceiling on our support
important is that there can be no that would make it very, very difficult
general election before Brexit is for us to ever win a parliamentary
delivered on October 31.”35 Foreign majority.”37 Win or lose, the long-term
Office minister Alan Duncan has stated consequences for the Conservative
that an election before Brexit is Party could be disastrous.
resolved “will only make things worse”,
while a number of backbenchers have An election would not necessarily
explicitly said they would vote against settle the issue and could to further
holding one.36 gridlock

Going into an election committed to Whatever Brexit policy the new prime
No Deal would be a huge risk for the minister pursues, most polls currently
new prime minister indicate an election would lead to
another hung parliament, meaning
It is possible that a new Conservative there would still not be a majority for
prime minister will take the risk anyway, any form of Brexit. In those
perhaps calculating that the vote to circumstances, whoever formed the
stay in the EU will be divided and that a new government would face all the
majority could be secured even with a same problems that confounded
significantly reduced share of the vote. Theresa May.
But there is no doubt this would be an
enormous risk. It is unclear how
successful such a strategy would be in
persuading Brexit Party voters to
switch to the Conservatives. What is
clear is it would alienate millions of
voters who once supported the party

12
Dead-end 5: Revoke
Article 50
Who is proposing it?
Why it’s a dead-end
A number of opposition parties,
including the SNP, the Liberal Whoever becomes prime minister
Democrats and Change UK, have at will be vehemently opposed to it
various times backed calls for the
revocation of the Article 50 letter in Both Conservative leadership
certain circumstances. Over six million candidates have warned against
members of the public have signed a what they perceive to be the risks of
petition calling for the Government to cancelling Brexit. Boris Johnson has
“revoke Article 50 and remain in the said the Conservative Party “will not be
EU”.38 forgiven if we do not deliver Brexit on 31
October” and has warned that MPs will
The EU has not taken a view on “face mortal retribution” if they fail to
whether the UK should revoke, but it deliver it.40 Jeremy Hunt has said that
has made clear that it is legally “we must do one thing above all else:
possible. On Monday 10 December, the we must leave the European Union.”41
European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled
on the revocability of Article 50, There is unlikely to be a majority for it
confirming that the UK can decide to in Parliament
withdraw the Article 50 notification,
subject to following its own On 1 April, a motion calling on the
constitutional requirements. The ruling government to revoke Article 50 as a
stated that this can be done last resort to prevent No Deal was
“unilaterally, in an unequivocal and rejected by 292 votes to 191, a majority
unconditional manner, by a notice of 101.42 At a crunch moment in October,
addressed to the European Council in facing the imminent prospect of No
writing… and that revocation brings the Deal, support might well be higher. But
withdrawal procedure to an end.”39 it is our view that in those
circumstances it is more likely that a
majority would be found for either a
People’s Vote or voting no confidence
in the government than for revoking
Article 50.

13
 Dead-end 6: Request an
extension of Article 50 for
further negotiations
Who is proposing it? Why it’s a dead-end

While Boris Johnson has “categorically EU leaders may well reject a request
ruled out” seeking an extension, for an extension to continue
Jeremy Hunt has said he would be negotiations
open to a short extension of the Article
50 timetable in the event that the UK EU leaders have consistently said that
and EU are close to reaching a further extension to the Article 50
agreement on an alternative timetable will only be available for the
withdrawal agreement. explicit purpose of holding a People's
Vote, a general election or if there is a
It is likely that, as the 31 October radical change in the UK’s red lines.
deadline approaches, there will be French President Emmanuel Macron
calls in Parliament for a further said recently: “I think this is the final, final
extension of the Article 50 timetable deadline because I don’t want to have
and there would likely be a majority for the new Commission and this new
this. If the prime minister were to executive to deal with (this)... It’s
accept such a request from feasible if we have the perspective of
Parliament, the EU would want to know either a new referendum or a totally
what the purpose was. new scheme which would be
acceptable for the 27 and our
negotiator.”43 Similarly, the Irish
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar recently said:
“I think an extension could really only
happen if it were to facilitate
something like a general election in the
UK or perhaps even something like a
second referendum if they decided to
have one. What won't be entertained is
an extension for further negotiations or
further indicative votes the time for
that has long since passed.”44

14
It would achieve nothing other than
prolonging the uncertainty

Even if the EU were to agree to an

extension for further negotiations, the
same problems outlined in this paper
would remain. The Withdrawal
Agreement would still not be
renegotiable, other than perhaps to
insert a Northern Ireland-only
backstop that is unacceptable to the
current Parliament; there would still be
no majority in Parliament for any form
of Brexit; a general election would still
be too big a risk for the Conservatives;
and No Deal would still be a disastrous
outcome for which there is no majority
in either Parliament or the country.
Even Theresa May, who showed
significant talent for can-kicking,
reached the end of the road
eventually.

15
 The cliff-edge: Leave with
No Deal
Who is proposing it? Why it’s a cliff-edge

Both the Conservative leadership No Deal would be this country’s

candidates have said they are biggest ever step away from free
prepared to leave with No Deal. Boris trade
Johnson has said he will ensure “we
leave the EU on 31 October, deal or no Under WTO rules, on 31 October we
deal”45 and has said this will happen would either have to build a tariff wall
“do or die, come what may.”46 Jeremy against imports from our largest trade
Hunt says that if by the end of partner or remove all our tariffs against
September “there is no deal to be all our trade partners. The EU has long
done, I will immediately cease all said what it would do in that situation. If
discussions with the European Union we leave with No Deal, the EU’s
and focus the whole country’s common external tariff will apply to us
attention on No Deal preparations.”47 from day one. There would be no
parachute for our importers or our
In response to the opposition to No exporters
Deal in the House of Commons and
the country, Boris Johnson has claimed The UK would still need to a trade deal
the UK could “get a standstill in our with the EU but would find ourselves
current arrangements under GATT 24” negotiating from a far weaker position
to ensure continued tariff-free trade and still facing the same EU stance on
with the EU.48 He has also entertained the backstop and the divorce bill. And
the idea of proroguing Parliament to because a future trade agreement will
force No Deal through against MPs’ will, – unlike an Article 50 agreement –
saying “I think it would be absolutely require national ratification by every EU
folly to rule it out.”49 member state, No Deal could last for
many years.

It would have severe consequences

for the economy, national security
and the Union

The Government’s own estimate is that

No Deal would leave Britain’s economy
up to 9% smaller after 15 years than if
the UK remained in the EU. The

16
independent National Institute for your negotiating partner.
Economic and Social Research
estimates an “orderly No Deal” – which The Government would likely fall,
it defines as a Brexit in which especially if it prorogued Parliament
short-term contingency measures are
put in place and financial stability is Allowing No Deal to happen against
safeguarded – would mean a 5.5% hit the clear will of Parliament would be a
to UK GDP, leaving the economy £140 democratic outrage. There is no
billion worse off by 2030 than it mandate for it from the 2016
otherwise would have been. That is referendum, when the Leave
equivalent to an economic hit worth campaign and its main spokespeople
£1,330 per head each year.50 promised a comprehensive trade and
security deal, and when given the
No Deal would mean an immediate chance to express their view on No
end to the security agreements we Deal at the European Parliament
have with the EU, with no guarantees elections a majority of voters rejected
about how or when these might be it. It has also been repeatedly rejected
repaired. If EU-wide databases are no by Parliament. If a new prime minister
longer available to UK authorities, the prorogued Parliament to force it
ability of our police, security and through, it is inconceivable that they
counterterrorism services to keep would retain the confidence of the
Britain safe would be severely House of Commons, so it would be a
hampered. By making some sort of kamikaze act.
border checks inevitable, No Deal
would threaten the Northern Ireland
peace process and could lead to calls
for a border poll. It could also increase
the chance of a further independence
referendum in Scotland.

GATT 24 does not apply to No Deal

Article 24 of GATT was designed for

countries forming a new trade
agreement, not for countries choosing
to dissolve one. It provides for an
interim agreement on trade tariffs
provided they have a “plan and
schedule” agreed for concluding a
final deal. But, crucially, it requires both
parties to consent. It therefore doesn’t
apply to no deal preparations,
because it relies on the cooperation of

17
 The way out: A People’s Vote
Who is proposing it? Although a large majority of MPs voted
to trigger Article 50, there has never
Polling shows that a People’s Vote is been a stable majority in Parliament
the most popular way of resolving the for any specific form of Brexit and
Brexit crisis. Indeed, it is increasingly attempts to force a deal through by
apparent that this is the only legitimate postponing the big decisions on the
and democratic solution available. A future relationship until after we have
final say referendum is the policy of left the EU have also failed. The
nearly every opposition party in the Withdrawal Agreement has been
House of Commons – the SNP, the rejected three times. At the last time of
Liberal Democrats, Change UK, Plaid asking it lost by 58 votes. No Deal has
Cymru and the Green Party. The also been repeatedly rejected. On 1
Labour Party is moving closer to giving April, it was defeated by 240 votes.51 The
unequivocal support for a People’s indicative votes process
Vote and has twice whipped its MPs to demonstrated that there is no majority
vote for one in Parliament. A growing for any specific form of Brexit. Since
number of Conservative MPs, including then, while a few MPs may have
some who want to see Brexit moved in one direction or another,
implemented, are also now – there is no reason to believe that a
sometimes reluctantly – concluding majority can be found by a new prime
this is the best way to settle the issue. minister for the same Withdrawal
Agreement, a tweaked version of it or
Although there is not yet a majority in for No Deal.
Parliament for a People’s Vote, it
secured more votes (280) than any 2. Faced with No Deal in October, more
other option in the second round of the MPs will back a People’s Vote,
indicative votes process in early April. sometimes as the “least-worst”
Since then, as the prospect of a new choice
prime minister apparently content to
pursue No Deal has emerged, Parliament is opposed to No Deal. But
parliamentary support has continued to prevent No Deal happening by
to grow. default, Parliament will have to vote for
something. The six options highlighted
earlier in this paper are all either
Why it is now the only way out undeliverable or undesirable. If
pursued, they will either increase the
1. When presented with any specific risk of an accidental No Deal or, at best,
form of Brexit option, Parliament will prolong the pain and uncertainty of
oppose it Brexit. A People’s Vote may not be
anyone’s perfect outcome, but it is a
compromise solution that can finally

18
bring an end to the Brexit crisis and It is also possible that the new prime
allow the country to move on. Once minister could allow a People’s Vote to
the choice is truly stark – crash out with be “forced” on them. Regardless of
No Deal or back a People’s Vote – what Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt
many more MPs could back a final say. say today about their opposition to it,
That is because a People’s Vote is not once in No 10 their zeal for delivering –
an option in this Brexit crisis, but a and owning – No Deal could dissipate.
solution to it. At that point, they may recognise that
a People’s Vote offers the best means
Conservative MPs of breaking the deadlock.

Some 15 Conservative MPs backed a Labour MPs

People’s Vote in the last round of
indicative votes on 1 April. That was up Support is also growing among Labour
from 8 in the previous vote on 27 MPs. Some 203 Labour MPs voted for a
March, and there is good reason to People’s Vote on 1 April. That was up
believe support is increasing. A from 198 on 27 March. The number of
growing number have publicly Labour MPs prepared to vote against a
acknowledged the risks for the party of People’s Vote has fallen continuously
either No Deal or a General Election, over the past two years, with 24 voting
and many realise that the former against in April. Even among those who
could well be followed by the latter. The have publicly opposed supporting a
15 who voted for a People’s Vote People’s Vote, a significant number – 16
include some, like Huw Merriman, who – chose to abstain rather than vote
would like to see a Brexit deal delivered against. Given nearly all Labour MPs
and acknowledge that a referendum are strongly opposed to No Deal, in the
is now the best way of securing face of such an outcome, the numbers
legitimacy for it. of Labour MPs a) abstaining rather
than voting against a People’s Vote,
The formation of a new Government and b) voting for rather than
may well free up more Conservative abstaining, are likely to go up.
MPs to back a People’s Vote. Of the
current members of the Cabinet, some DUP MPs
– such as Philip Hammond, David
Gauke, Rory Stewart and Greg Clark – The DUP have consistently voted
are known to be strongly opposed to against a People’s Vote. But it is not
No Deal and they may soon be free to inconceivable that the party’s six MPs
vote against it. Pragmatic could abstain on a vote in October, or
Conservative MPs will have to vote for even vote in favour. Publicly, the party
something. None have advocated a says it would be prepared to see No
general election, which could be Deal, but its leadership is understood to
disastrous for their party. Many know be concerned by the prospect of a
that No Deal would be a catastrophic hard border and the impact that could
outcome. So the attractiveness of a have on support for a border poll. Once
People’s Vote as the only viable route the new prime minister’s attempt to
will grow. remove the backstop from the
Withdrawal Agreement has failed, and
19
 the reality of No Deal draws nearer, the Standing Order 24 motion
party may change its view. After all,
Nigel Dodds, the DUP’s leader in Alternatively, MPs could seek an
Westminster, made clear that he emergency debate under Standing
“would rather stay in the European Order 24. These are usually
Union and remain than risk Northern non-binding, but the Speaker has
Ireland’s position”.52 When there is suggested he could allow a motion
nowhere left to turn, a People’s Vote will which placed a specific duty on
be the least-worst choice. ministers, for example to table a
motion. He said in March that the
3. Even if the Government pursues No “opportunities [with SO24] are fuller
Deal, MPs will have opportunities to than has traditionally been
back a People’s Vote acknowledged or taken advantage of
by [MPs].”53
Ignoring the clear will of the House of
Commons is never a good idea, and Confidence motion
the blunt political reality is that it will not
be a credible option available to the If all else fails, there is the option of a
Government. The sooner this is fully vote of no confidence in the
appreciated, the better. But if the new Government. Nobody knows how
prime minister sought to plough many Conservative MPs might be
ahead with No Deal anyway, there are prepared to do this in the event the
a number of mechanisms MPs could new prime minister pursues a policy of
use to prevent them from doing so, No Deal and is determined to force it
and to secure a People’s Vote. through against the wishes of the
House of Commons. Clearly, none
Amending legislation would want to do this as their first
choice. But a number have already
To prepare for No Deal the indicated that they would be prepared
Government would need to pass to do so.
further legislation in a number of areas.
Some of this would be primary 4. A People’s Vote would mean Brexit
legislation, which would provide can be settled one way or the other by
obvious opportunities for Spring 2020
amendments. Much of it could be
done through statutory instruments Once the principle of holding a
(SIs) granted by the EU (Withdrawal) People’s Vote is secured, the
Act. But this does not mean MPs would Government would have to seek an
have no say over that legislation. MPs extension of the Article 50 timetable. To
have an absolute veto on SIs, whether provide sufficient time for the passage
under the negative or the affirmative of the necessary legislation, and for full
procedure, and in the event that a debate about the question and the
motion had been passed calling for a format of the referendum itself, it
People’s Vote and the Government would make sense to seek an
was refusing to act, this could be a very extension into the new year, with
effective blocking mechanism. polling day scheduled for sometime in
Spring 2020. EU leaders have
20
consistently been clear that should the
UK request an extension to allow for a
People’s Vote, it would be granted
because they do not want to be seen
to stand in the way of our democratic
process.

Extending Article 50 until Spring 2020

for this purpose would provide a clear
timetable towards a resolution of the
Brexit crisis. This would give businesses
the clarity they need to plan for the
future, as well as giving us all the
prospect of a lasting and binding
settlement that would mean –
whatever the result – the end of this
never-ending crisis.

21
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