NATO and The Ukraine Crisis
NATO and The Ukraine Crisis
NATO and The Ukraine Crisis
The Ukraine crisis has led many observers to conclude that the European
security landscape is undergoing a sea change. Terms such as game
changer, wake up call (former NATO Secretary General Rasmussen), and
paradigm shift (General Breedlove, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
[NATO]’s Supreme Allied Commander) imply that Russia’s actions vis-à-vis
Ukraine are not just an isolated event but part of a profound transformation
of Russia’s attitude and policy vis-à-vis the West. After all, part of the Russian
choreography in annexing Crimea, where Moscow employed unmarked
armed forces inside Ukraine while concentrating regular Russian forces
at Ukraine’s border with surprising speed, was an information warfare
campaign that demonstrated a baffling degree of long-standing anti-Western
resentment.
Reflexively, some observers have interpreted these developments as
giving NATO a new lease on life. With Russia re-emerging as a common
threat, so the argument goes, Allies would draw closer together and the
cohesion of NATO would be strengthened.1 Moreover, with the mission
of the International Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan having come to
an end, and given the Allies’ little appetite to embark on other major
Michael Rühle is Head of the Energy
expeditionary operations, a shift of NATO’s military focus back to the
Security Section in NATO’s Emerging European theater almost appeared like the logical conclusion of a period
Security Challenges Division. He expresses of two decades of operations. The Central and Eastern European Allies, so
his personal views only.
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the argument continues, would finally get the NATO; its willingness to put arms control agreements
enhanced NATO presence in their territories that at risk by testing new weapons systems; and, not least,
they had been craving since they joined the Alliance, the considerable increase in Russia’s military budget,
thus ending their self-perception as second-class coupled with offensive military exercises (including
members. And, all Allies would be under pressure the simulated use of nuclear weapons against NATO
to review their defense budgets by again taking a ser- Allies); and increasingly bellicose rhetoric.
ious look at the 2 percent of Gross Domestic Product In the context of the Ukraine crisis, Russia also
(GDP) benchmark that most of them had not met for stepped up its nuclear exercises, had its bombers fly-
decades. In sum, NATO would emerge reinvigorated ing closer to Allied borders, and boasted the develop-
from the crisis as an Alliance with a new sense of ment of new nuclear weapons. In the fall of 2014,
common purpose. Moscow announced that it would not participate in
However, such a view misses the mark. True, the the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit. At the end of that
Ukraine crisis did provide a tangible theme for the same year, Moscow released a new military doctrine
September 2014 Wales Summit, replacing Afghanistan that named NATO and NATO’s enlargement as major
as the original—and inevitably bittersweet—major threats to Russia. While that document did not con-
issue at the summit. Moreover, NATO’s initial moves tain many surprises and was, indeed, status quo in
to quickly increase its military presence in Eastern some areas such as nuclear policy, it was noteworthy
Europe demonstrated that the Allies had understood not least for its references to the threat of foreign-
the importance of not being seen as dithering in the inspired regime change—a reference to the protests
face of Russian aggression against a neighboring on Kiev’s Maidan Square in early 2014 that had led
state. Yet the assumption that the Ukraine crisis to the demise of the Russia-friendly Janukovich
would rejuvenate NATO is far too simplistic. The government and had convinced Moscow to inter-
crisis may have indeed brought home to many vene. In this sense, the new military doctrine has
the continuing need for a collective defense frame- turned the siege mentality that had been visible for
work, but it also confronts NATO with a series of some time into Russia’s official foreign and security
political and military challenges that will put Alliance policy narrative.2
solidarity to the test. All of these moves happened against the backdrop
of Russian complaints about a West bent on margin-
alizing Russia’s political and military status, be it by
THE RUSSIA CHALLENGE enlarging NATO or by deliberately misinterpreting
With respect to Russia, two questions arise. First, is UN Security Council resolutions (e.g., on Libya),
Russia’s current behavior a passing phase or has it and Putin’s increasing domestic repression of certain
durably changed the relationship between Moscow societal groups, mixed with populist sentiments.
and NATO? Second, even assuming that the changes Russia’s ‘‘patriotic awakening’’—like so much in
in Russia’s policies are set to last, how much of a Russia, orchestrated from the top down—has
military threat are they to NATO? resulted in soaring approval ratings for President
Regarding Russia’s policy, most observers agree Putin. Given Russia’s economic and social decline,
that a shift toward greater assertiveness had been now hastened by falling oil prices, Putin’s appeal to
visible for quite some time: Moscow’s attempts to ‘‘Russian values’’ and Russia’s military strength
prevent Georgia from realizing its NATO ambitions; appears like a calculated gamble: by playing on
the formation of the Eurasian Economic Union, which deep-seated anti-Western resentment among parts
appeared like a thinly veiled attempt to regain of the Russian population, and by defining the West
Moscow’s erstwhile sphere of influence; the de facto and NATO as adversaries, he has chosen a path that
end of the U.S.–Russia ‘‘reset’’ after Putin’s return to he will not (and probably cannot) reverse quickly.
the presidency; the continuing support for Syrian Moreover, since a serious challenger to President
President Assad; Russia’s granting of asylum to the Putin and his vision of Russia does not seem in sight,
wayward National Security Agency (NSA) employee current trends in Russian policy may well continue.
Edward Snowden; Russia’s withdrawal from the Whether these developments amount to a concrete
missile defense talks with the United States and military threat to NATO, however, is less clear. For