Population Forcasting Methods

Estimating Population
 The term population is used to indicate the total number of human

beings in a certain area at any particular time.
 The present population is obtained by referring to the statistics of
census records prepared by the local body.
 The water supply projects is not designed only for present
population. But it is made to accommodate the future population.
 The growth of population may be sharp, slow or even stationary
depending upon the factors contributing to the future development
of the locality such as coming up of new industries, trade
expansion, etc.
 The future period for which various services units of water supply
or sanitary engineering are designed is known as the period of
design.
 The period of design may varies from 20 to 40 years or even upto
50 years. PREPARED BY : PROF.D.V.PATEL
POPULATION FORECASTING
Design of water supply and sanitation scheme is based on the
projected population of a particular city, estimated for the design
period.
Any underestimated value will make system inadequate for the
purpose intended; similarly overestimated value will make it costly.
Changes in the population of the city over the years occur, and the
system should be designed taking into account of the population at
the end of the design period.
Factors affecting changes in population are:
 increase due to births
 decrease due to deaths
 increase/ decrease due to migration
 increase due to annexation.
PREPARED BY : PROF.D.V.PATEL
POPULATION FORECASTING METHODS
Arithmetic Increase method
Geometric Increase Method
Incremental Increase Method
Decrease Rate of growth Method
Simple Graphical Method
Comparitive Graphical Method
Zoning method or master plan method
Ratio and correlation method
Growth composition analysis method
AIRTHMETIC INCREASE METHOD
This is the most simple method of population forecast ,
through it generally gives lower results.
This method is suitable for large and old city with
considerable development.
If it is used for small, average or comparatively new cities,
it will give lower population estimate than actual value.
In this method the average increase in population per
decade is calculated from the past census reports.
This increase is added to the present population to find out
the population of the next decade.
Thus, it is assumed that the population is increasing at
constant rate.
Hence, dP/dt = K i.e., rate of change of population with
respect to time is constant.
For a given ‘dt’ , dP1 = dP2 = dP3 = constant
Therefore
Let the arithmetic average of per decade increases is given
as
P0 be the latest known last
P decades population.
P3
O Population after 1 decade:
P
U P2
L
A P1
dP Population after 2 decade:
T
I
O
Therefore formulae derived is
dt
N
t1 t2 t3 Where ‘n’ = no. of decades

TIME
Example. The population figure in a growing town are as follows. The
predicted population in 2010 by arithmetic increase method
YEAR 1970 1980 1990 2000
POPULATION 40000 46000 53000 58000
GEOMETRIC INCREASE METHOD
This method is suitable for fast and rapidly developing
cities.
In this method percentage increase in population from
decade to decade is assumed to be remain constant.
Since this method give higher values and hence should be
applied for a new industrial town at the beginning of
development for only few decades.
Thus, it is assumed that the per decade % growth rate is
assume to be constant.
For a given ‘dt’ , dP1 < dP2 <dP3
{NOT CONST.}
P4
dP3
P
P3
O
P dP2
U P2
L
A dP1
T P1
I
O
N
t1 t2 t3 t4
TIME PREPARED BY : PROF.D.V.PATEL
When geometric percentage increases per
decades is given directly in problems
When geometric percentage increases per decades is not given in
problems the it is generated by using population statistics of
community.
To find of future population ‘r’ is compounded to the existing

population.
Population after 1 decade is
Population after ‘n’ decade
Example. The population figure in a growing town are as follows. The
predicted population in 2030 by Geometric increase method
YEAR 1980 1990 2000 2010
POPULATION 40000 50000 80000 140000
The population of a town in three consecutive decades are 1 lakh , 1.4
lakh , 1.68 lakh respectively . The population of this town in the
fourth consecutive decade according to geometric method would be?
INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD
This method is modification of AIM .
It is suitable for average town under normal condition
where the growth rate is to increasing order.
For a given ‘dt’ , dP1 < dP2 <dP3
OR
For a given ‘dt’ , dP1 >dP2 > Dp3
Future population by this method base on average of the
increments over increase is +ve or –ve.
Let be the avg. of increment over increases to find future
population by this method is is added to Avg.Increases
Population after 1 decade ,
Population after 2 decade ,
Population after ‘n’ decade ,
Where,
Past population data
of a town is given
below. Find The
population in the year
2030 incremental
increase method.
Year Population
1980 25000
1990 40000
2000 50000
2010 70000
Given the population figure of place is 50000 in 1990 . The average
increase in population is 5000 per decade and average incremental
increase is 500 per decade. Then expected population in 2020 will be?
STEP 1
STEP 2
Decreasing rate of growth method
It is rational method for the cities whose rate of increases

goes on reduce , as they reach saturation.
This method is extension of geometric increases method.
As cities approaching towards saturation rate of increase ,
decreases with respect to time.
Population after ‘n’ Decade is
SATURATION
dP3
P4
dP2
P
O
P3 For a given ‘dt’ ,
P
dP1 dP1 >dP2 > dP3
U P2
L
A
T P1
I
O
N
t1 t2 t3 t4
SATURATION
Ps
Ps-Pt
Pt

The census record of a
particular town shows
the population figures
as follows. Estimate
the population for the
year 2020 by
decreasing rate growth
method
Year Population
1980 55500
1990 63700
2000 71300
2010 79500
Population statistics
pertaining to town
given below . Find
the population in
2030 by decreasing
growth rate method.
Year Population
1970 25000
1980 28000
1990 34000
2000 42000
2010 47000
Logistic curve(S-CURVE) method
Ps
EQUATION OF
LOGISTIC CURVE
P
O
P
U
L
A
T
I
O
N
P0

In two period each of
20 years a city has
grown from 30000 to
170000 and then
300000. Determined
expected population
after next 20 years.
GRAPHICAL EXTENSION METHOD
• In this method, the populations of last few decades
are correctly plotted to a suitable scale on graph.
• The population curve is smoothly extended for
getting future population.
• This extension should be done carefully and it
requires proper experience and judgment.
• The best way of applying this method is to extend
the curve by comparing with population curve of
some other similar cities having the similar growth
condition.
• This gives very approximate results .
• It is very unsafe to use this method alone.
COMPARATIVE GRAPHICAL METHOD
• In this method, assumption is taken as that the city

under consideration may develop same as the
selected similar cities developed in the past.
• It is based on logical background , precise and
reliable results can be obtained by this method.
• In practice however , it is difficult to find identical
cities respect to population growth.
ZONIG OR MASTER PLAN METHOD
• This is probably a scientific method using the
limitations imposed by the town planner in the
increase in density of population of various parts of
city.
• For this master plan is prepared for city ,dividing
into different zones.
• Each zone is allowed to as per master plan only. So
the future population of each zone , when fully
developed can be easily found.
• This Method is more advantageous because of the
fact that total water requirement of the city depends
not only for domestic purposes but also for
commercial ,industrial and other purposes.
FOR EXAMPLE
Sector A of residential zone has 1000

plots.
Allowing 5 persons per plot , the
population of this sector when fully
developed will be 1000 x 5 = 5000
persons
RATIO AND CORRELATION METHOD
• The increase in population of big cities bear a direct
relationship to the population of the whole state or
country also.
• In this method , local to national ( or state)
population ratio is determined in the previous two to
four decades.
• Depending upon the conditions even changing ratio
may be adopted.
• This method takes into account the regional and
national factor affecting population growth .
• This method is very useful for only those area whose
population growth in the past is fairly consistent
with that of state or nation. PREPARED BY : PROF.D.V.PATEL
GRWOTH COMPOSITON ANALYSIS METHOD
• The change in population of city is due to three
reasons birth , death and migration from villages or
other towns.
• The difference between the birth rate and death rate
gives the natural increase in population.
• Thus Pn = P + Natural Increase + Migration
• Natural Increase = T ( Ib*P – Id*P)
Where,
T = Design (forecast ) period
P = Present population
Ib= Average birth rate per year
Id= Average death rate per year

Population Forcasting Methods

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Population Forcasting Methods

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Population Forcasting Methods

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Estimating Population

 The term population is used to indicate the total number of human

t1 t2 t3 Where ‘n’ = no. of decades

To find of future population ‘r’ is compounded to the existing

Population after ‘n’ decade

Population after ‘n’ decade ,

It is rational method for the cities whose rate of increases

Population after ‘n’ Decade is

TIME PREPARED BY : PROF.D.V.PATEL

TIME PREPARED BY : PROF.D.V.PATEL

• In this method, assumption is taken as that the city

Sector A of residential zone has 1000

You might also like