06 Economy and Labour Market Steering Committee Draft

R W A N D A N A T I O N A L L A N D U S E D E V E L O P M E N T M A S T E R P L A N - E C O N O M Y A N D L A B O U R M A R K E T
06_Economy_and_LabourMarket_SteeringCommitteeDraft .................................
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II.6. FUTURE PERSPECTIVES FOR THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR ------------------------------ 20

INTRODUCTION ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4
II.6.1. Growth scenario and agriculture policy ----------------------------------- 20
I. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND COMPETITIVENESS ------------------------------------ 4 II.6.1.1.Low Growth Scenario --------------------------------------------------------------- 20
II.6.1.2.High Growth Scenario--------------------------------------------------------------- 20
I.1. PRESENT STATUS OF THE RWANDAN ECONOMY ------------------------------------ 4 II.6.2.DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES: Investment and exports-------------- 20
I.1.1. Rwanda’s Macro Economic Performance 2000 – 2008 -------------------- 4 Fertilizer Manufacturing Plant ----------------------------------------------------------- 20
I.1.2. Monetary, fiscal and external trade sectors ----------------------------------- 6 Assembly Plant (to assemble agriculture machinery)----------------------------- 20
I.1.3. Rwanda’s financial sector ---------------------------------------------------------- 8 Irrigation Project ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
Opportunities in the financial sector ----------------------------------------------------- 9 Animal Feed Factory ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
I.2. COMPETITIVENESS ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 Horticulture----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
I.3. THE STAGES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ------------------------------------------------ 11 Dairy ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
II. AGRICULTURE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 Coffee ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
Tea --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
II.1.1. Contribution of the agricultural sector in the national economy ---- 11 Food Crop: Maize, Rice and Cassava ------------------------------------------------ 20
II.1.2. Agriculture production in Rwanda ------------------------------------------------- 12 II.7. Fish and crop exports boosted up by irrigation ------------------------- 20
II.1.2.1.Food crops ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 II.8. URBAN SPACE SPILL OVER ON AGRICULTURAL LAND ------------------------------ 20
II.1.2.2.Export crops ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 15
II.1.2.3.Animal rearing and husbandry------------------------------------------------ 15 III. CONSTRUCTION -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
II.1.2.4.Fishing ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15 III.1.CONTRIBUTION TO THE ECONOMY ---------------------------------------------------------- 20
II.1.2.5.Forestry ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 III.2.DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES------------------------------------------------------------- 20
II.2. PROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS DRAWING PROFIT FROM INCOMES GENERATED
BY THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15
IV. ENERGY------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
II.2.1.Proportion of farmer households in the overall country ----------------------- 15 IV.1.PRESENT SITUATION -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
II.3. PROPORTION OF THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR LABOR FORCE IN THE NATIONAL WORK IV.1.1.Energy Demand in Rwanda--------------------------------------------------------- 20
FORCE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 IV.1.2.Source of Energy in Rwanda ------------------------------------------------------- 20
II.3.1.Main activities of farmer heads of households ---------------------------------- 15 BIOMASS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 20
II.3.2.Secondary activities practiced by the farming population -------------------- 16 POWER/ELECTRICITY ------------------------------------------------------------------ 20
II.4. USE OF NATURAL RESOURCES IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR----------------- 16 HYDROCARBON -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
II.4.1.Use of plots for farming purposes (arable land, urban space) -------------- 16 METHANE GAS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
II.4.2.Use of water for agricultural purposes -------------------------------------------- 19 PEAT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 20
II.5. FISHING ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 20 GEOTHERMAL ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
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WIND ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 20 REFERENCE-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20

DIVERSIFICATION OF ENERGY SOURCES AND SUPPLY SECURITY-- 20
IV.2.DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES------------------------------------------------------------ 20 LIST OF TABLES-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
V. MINING ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 LIST OF FIGURES ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 20
V.1. CURRENT SITUATION -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
V.2. DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES ------------------------------------------------------ 20
VI. TOURISM ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 20
VI.1.CURRENT STATUS OF THE RWANDAN TOURISM SECTOR ----------------- 20
VI.1.1. Employment in the Tourism sector ---------------------------------------- 20
VI.1.2. Accommodation and Restauration Facilities ---------------------------- 20
IV.1.3. MAIN TOURISM ATTRACTIONS AND THEIR LOCATION -------- 20
VI.2.GROWTH SCENARIOS------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
VI.2.1. Low growth option-------------------------------------------------------------- 20
VI.2.2. Moderate Growth Option ----------------------------------------------------- 20
VI.2.3. High Growth Option------------------------------------------------------------ 20
VI.3.INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE TOURISM SECTOR ------------------------------- 20
VII. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY --------------------------- 20
VII.1.CURRENT STATUS OF ICT ------------------------------------------------------------------ 20
VII.2.DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES ----------------------------------------------------------- 20
VIII.EMPLOYMENT IN RWANDA ----------------------------------------------------------------- 20
IX. RWANDA’S ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION AND LABOR MARKET

CONNECTIONS---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
X. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICIES----------------------------------------------- 20

THE PRIVATE SECTOR------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
XI. SCENARIOS 2020 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20
The National Land Use and Development Master Plan is referred to as the Plan in the text.
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INTRODUCTION I. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND

COMPETITIVENESS
The link between the economy and the labor market is obvious. Labor, capital, natural
resources and entrepreneurship are the four essential components in the production of
goods and services in an economy. The quantity and quality of labor that individuals
I.1. Present status of the Rwandan Economy
supply is an important factor in determining the economy's level of production and rate
of growth. Post genocide Rwanda has registered considerable economic progress. Recovering
from ashes in 1994, the period 1996 – 2000 was more of a recovery period from the
The labor market is made up of people with jobs, people looking for jobs and after war instabilities, followed by a stabilization process from 2001 – 2006. It is
businesses seeking employees. An important aspect of the labor market is the during this period that Rwanda embarked on sustainable planning for growth and
contribution made by the unique skills and abilities of all types of people. These talents development, with the elaboration of its long term Vision 2020 and medium term
can be changed and enhanced through education or training, making the labor force an poverty reduction strategies.
evolving talent pool from which businesses hire. Using skills effectively and training
people to meet new demands in the marketplace help make the production process I.1.1. Rwanda’s Macro Economic Performance 2000 – 2008
more efficient. A healthy growing economy should be able to generate good jobs for its
Over the last nine years, Rwanda has registered significant macro economic
people. Likewise, for an economy to grow, the work force needs to have the right skills
performance as can be seen from the various indicators of the real, monetary,
to drive the innovations and entrepreneurship.
external sectors and fiscal performance as indicated in the following figure.
This study gives an analysis of the current status of the Rwandan economy in its
Rwanda has registered strong real GDP growth over the last decade, with an
various sectors, the policies and perspectives for the year 2020, and the underlying
average of 8.3% during 2000 - 2008 compared to 4.9% for the entire Africa and
challenges to the achievements. Our analysis on what is achievable in the coming 10
4.1% world wide. Sustaining such high growth rates over such a long period, beyond
years dwells on the apparent opportunities, on the availability of the necessary inputs to
recovery is testimony of strong macroeconomic stability.
the growth process, especially the skills on the labor market.
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Table 1: Major Rwandan macroeconomic indicators High variability in the growth trend is linked to the performance of the agricultural
sector—thus stressing that this sector remains the engine of growth of the Rwandan
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 economy. The variability also demonstrates how sensitive the Rwandan economy is
to external shocks like weather in 2003.
Real GDP (in
billions of Rwf, 1065 1156 1308 1337 1437 1571 1716 1811 2041 Figure 1: Economic Growth Trends Compared
2006)
Real GDP
8.4% 8.5% 13.2% 2.2% 7.4% 9.4% 9.2% 5.5% 11.2%
growth
Agricultural
Sector as a % 37 37 35 38 39 38 38 36 33
of GDP
Industrial
Sector as a % 14 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 15
of GDP
Services
Sector as a % 44 43 44 42 41 41 42 45 45
of GDP
Growth Rate –
8% 9% 17% -3% 2% 6% 3% 3% 9%
Agriculture
Growth Rate – Source: Table 1
2% 13% 7% 5% 16% 9% 12% 9% 16%
Industry
Growth Rate - A comparison with Africa and the world at large shows that the Rwandan economy
11% 7% 12% 7% 10% 12% 13% 7% 11% has sustained a better performance, except for 2003 and 2004. This great sensitivity
Services
to weather related external shocks, inherent to the agricultural sector, justifies the
Inflation Rate 3.9% 3.4% 2% 7.5% 12% 9.1% 8.9% 9.1% 15.2% structural transformation required in the short to medium term to move from a
Gross Capital subsistence rain-fed agriculture to one that is business oriented. It yet again justifies
Formation as 13 14 13 14 15 16 16 18 23 the long term choice to move from being agricultural based to a services-led
% of GDP economy over the long term.
Source: NISR, 2009a Inflation rates on the other hand have also been contained to a single digit over the
period under study except for 2004 and 2008. In 2003, inflation rose after a couple
of years of control.
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With respect to recent developments, there is concern that the urge to maintain the
high economic growth rates, monetary policy may become too lax with rapid
expansions in money supply and in credits to the private sector.
Figure 2: Inflation Trends Compared On the fiscal side, Government revenue collection (excluding grants) has improved
markedly since the immediate aftermath of the 1994 events from 6.4% of GDP in
2005, up to 13.8 percent of GDP in 2008. Improved revenue collection over this
period is due to an increase in the VAT rate from 15 to 18 percent, and to
improvements in the revenue administration. However, Rwanda’s revenue collection
is still below the Sub Saharan Africa average and in order to become less reliant on
foreign assistance, there is a need to increase the revenue share further through
improving the efficiency of existing taxes for example by spreading the coverage of
VAT, broadening the tax base through bringing on board the large informal sector.
Notwithstanding the need for increasing government expenditures due to the high
costs of reconstruction and development programmes, government deficit in
proportion to GDP has been maintained to sustainable levels at around 11% of
GDP. This deficit as shown by table below is mopped up almost entirely by grants
from donors. This stable and sustainable situation is attributed to fiscal discipline
and public finance reforms that have been implemented (MINECOFIN, 2009).
Source: Table 1
I.1.2. Monetary, fiscal and external trade sectors
Around 2003, slower GDP growth together with higher money growth and expansionary
fiscal policies led to increases in inflation mostly due to high food and oil prices. The On the monetary side, the Rwandan monetary authority, BNR, has played the
trend continued to rise in 2004 but was later contained and stabilized to a single digit leading role in achieving macroeconomic stability. Price stability has been stated as
rate till 2007. Inflationary pressures stiffened again in 2008 and this was more of an top priority of the central Bank (BNR, 2005). This, on the ground that financial
imported inflation with the rising international oil prices which impact on the cost of all stability, characterized by a low and predictable inflation rate, a steady exchange
goods especially for a land locked country like Rwanda. rate and a secure banking system, is an essential foundation for growth.
Over the study period, except for particular years with hikes in food and oil prices
(2003-4 and 2008), inflation rates have been stable and low (before 2003), stable but
quite high compared to the African outlook (after 2004). The target being to keep a
stable single digit inflation rate, Rwanda has managed pretty with achieving this but
remains highly vulnerable to external price shocks.
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Table 2
Broad Money(M2)
in Billions of Rwf 111.5 121.4 144.7 167.5 206.2 246.2 321 425.2 466.1
Gross Reserves
as Months
ofIimports 5.4 5.7 8.2 5.9 7.3 5.2 5.6 4.8 5.3
Figure 3: Monetary Indicators
Balance of
Current
Payments in % of
GDP -6.6 -5.9 -6.4 -5.8 -1.9 -2.8 -8.5 -5.1 -9.5
Trade Balance as
% of GDP -9 -17.3 -18.3 -18.2 -17.1 -10.4 -10.6 -11.9 -14
Exchange
Rate(Rwf/1USD) 390 443.1 475.3 537.3 577.5 557.7 558 547 547.6
Tax Revenues in
% of GDP 9.7 10.7 12.9 12 11.8 12.5 12.1 12.6 14.8
Budget Deficit
Before Grants in
% of GDP -9.8 -11.4 -10 -12.2 -13.8 -8.9 -10.4 -111 -10.5
Budget Deficit
after Grants in % Source: BNR & MINECOFIN annual reports: (2004-2009)
of GDP -1.4 -2.5 -2,2 -0,2 0,4 2.5 -0,5 -1,2 0,4
The exchange rate has been relatively stable, which is necessary for Rwanda that is
a high importer of most of the commodities consumed locally. Money supply on the
other hand has been steadily increasing over time. This is attributed to capital
inflows in terms or aid, investments and remittances from abroad. The central bank
has always acted to keep money growth in check with the growth of the economy.
Monetary policy has been tight to sterilize liquidity.
The Rwandan government attributes the economic performance and

Table 2: Rwandan Monetary, Fiscal and External Trade Indicators macroeconomic stability over this period to strong macroeconomic management,
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fiscal discipline and public finance management well implemented and timely
disbursements of donor contributions (Minecofin, 2009).
I.1.3. Rwanda’s financial sector

Table 3: Structure of the Dominant Banking Sector
Rwanda aspirations to become a middle-income country and an economic trade and
communications hub by 2020 calls for sustained high real economic growth. An Type of the Year Agencie
effective financial sector will be instrumental in making this happen. N° Bank Name bank licensed Ownership s
1 BK Commercial 1966 100% Gvt 9

Medium term targets in the EDPRS (2008 - 2012), indicate that in order to achieve the
long term vision, the economy needs to grow by 8% annually. The later requires a level 80%
of savings of at least 12% of GDP and domestic investments of up to 24% of GDP Private,
(MINECOFIN, 2008). This therefore requires a financial system capable of mobilizing 2 BCR Commercial 1963 20% G 9
the required investible savings. 100%
3 ECOBANK Commercial 1995 Private 9
The EDPRS, in acknowledgement of this, singles out financial development as a major
priority through: 82%
Private,8%
Expanding access to credit and financial services; 4 FINABANK Commercial 1983 Gvt 5
100%
Enhancing savings mobilization, especially long term savings; and 5 COGEBANQUE Commercial 1999 Private 14
100%
Mobilizing long-term capital for investment. 6 ACCESS BANK Commercial 1995 Private 4
Rwanda’s financial sector has certainly grown over the last 10 years in numbers and 100%
composition and ownership. It is currently composed of: 8 Commercial banks, 3 7 BPR Commercial 1975 Private 129
specialized banks, 1 Microfinance bank, 122 Microfinance institutions, 8 Insurance 100%
companies, 1 Public Pension fund, and 10 Growing Private Pension funds 8 KCB Commercial 2008 Private 1
Microfinance 100%
9 URWEGO bank 2007 Private 3
10 BHR Mortgage 1975 1
84% Gvt,
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16% Private To organize and modernize the national payment system.

100%
11 CDH Discount House 2008 Private 1 Many new foreign investors have come into the financial sector through acquiring
existing banks (Ecobank, Access bank, Rabobank, Actis) or setting up new banks
44% (KCB), a move that has strengthened the institutional, organizational and human
Private,
resource capacity of the local banks.
12 BRD Development 1967 56% Gvt 3
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR
Source: BNR, 2009
A financial sector assessment study (FSAP, 2005) done by the World bank and IMF There is clear need for more investment in mortgage financing. With Rwanda’s
concluded that Rwanda’s financial sector was still relatively shallow, undiversified, young and rapidly urbanizing population, estimates show a need for 25,000 new
dominated by an oligopolistic banking sector, and characterized by relatively high houses built each year in urban areas.
lending rates, extremely low insurance penetration, a scarcity of long term debt, home
mortgage financing and equity capital, a virtual absence of regulation and supervision of Privatization of the pension sector as a way to stimulate long term savings is another
pensions and insurance, and an inadequately functioning payments system. upcoming opportunity in the financial sector.
A survey carried out on access to financial services by FINSCOPE 2008, revealed that The insurance sector is still very small especially for long term insurance. There is
only 14% of the Rwandan adult population is banked, and this drops to 1% if one big room for new comers and acquisitions.
excludes the dominant bank BPR (a former cooperative union). Only 47% of the adult
population is financially served; 14% of these are served by banks, 7% by other formal The fact that only 47% of the Rwandan population is regarded as financially served
financial institutions, while remaining 26% are served through informal financial means. leaves a large room for expansion.
53% of the entire adult population is not served whatsoever by any formal or informal The forthcoming expansion of the labour force
financial means.
To turn around such a situation, Rwanda set up a Financial Sector Development

Program (FSDP) in 2007 as one of the key components of the 5 year development
strategy (EDPRS 2008 - 2012) , with four core objectives:
To enhance access and affordability of financial services;
To enhance savings mobilization;
To develop appropriate policy, legal and regulatory framework for non-bank

financial institutions; as well as
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Î Cluster development
I.2. Competitiveness
Activate a formal cluster development program led by the private sector
The Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) ranks countries’ competitiveness basing on
twelve pillars: institutions, infrastructure, macroeconomic stability, health and primary Established clusters
education, higher education and training, goods market efficiency, labor market
efficiency, financial market sophistication, technological readiness, market size, Tea
business sophistication and innovation. Rwanda is improving in most these areas but Coffee
still has to go steps ahead to out-compete the major regional competitors.
Tourism
Competitiveness is determined by the productivity with which a country uses its human,
capital and natural resources. In recognition of its strengths and weaknesses, Rwanda Niche mining
is trying to position itself as a niche market, to base its competitiveness on
differentiation rather than on low pricing of its goods and services. Rwanda’s Emerging clusters
competitive agenda can be summarized in four broad areas:
Construction and real estate
Î Business environment
Logistics
Land use
Silk
Physical infrastructure
ICT services
Roads
Horticulture
Airport
Î Private sector
Economic zones
Engage the private sector in economic development
Energy (Renewable)
Support cooperative private investment vehicles to jumpstart the private equity
Urbanization outside of Kigali market
Skills development Î Neighborhood
Capacity-building across institutions Initiate actionable economic integration initiatives with each neighboring country
(EAC, CEPGL, and COMESA)
Government efficiency and cross agency coordination
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I.3. The stages of economic growth doesn’t have any primary, natural resources to reap from. The urge to transform to
an investment driven economy in the near future is therefore imperative for Rwanda.
As an economy develops, so do its structural bases of global competitiveness. At low
levels of development, growth is determined by the mobilization of primary factors of II. AGRICULTURE
production: land, primary commodities, and unskilled labor. Factor-driven economies
are typical in countries that compete on the basis of unskilled labor and natural II.1. Current situation of the agricultural sector
resources.
As economies move from low to middle income status, global competitiveness becomes Agriculture features prominently in the Rwandan economy, and currently
investment driven. Growth is increasingly achieved by harnessing global technologies accounts for 33 percent of GDP (2008) (NISR, 2009). Agricultural
to local production. FDI, joint ventures and outsourcing arrangements help to integrate commodities, mainly tea and coffee, generate 70 to 90 percent of total export
the economy into international production systems. Efficiency-driven economies are revenues (tea and coffee, generate 34 and 44 percent of total export
typical in countries that compete on the basis of production processes and increased revenues respectively for the year 2008 and 2009). Modest production gains
product quality. achieved in recent years in the coffee and tea sectors have allowed Rwanda
to broaden its revenue base, but the value per capita of commodity exports
Countries in this stage of development typically have well established higher education remains much lower than the average value for Sub-Saharan Africa as a
and training, efficient goods and labor markets, sophisticated financial markets, a large
whole. In addition, productivity in many staple crops and livestock sector has
domestic or foreign market and the capacity to harness existing technologies, or
technological readiness remained flat, while average farm sizes have declined, leaving many farmers’
incomes lower than they were during the pre-genocide period. Because
Evolution from middle income to high income status involves the transition from a Rwanda’s economy is heavily dependent on agriculture, the key to poverty
technology importing to a technology generating economy. At this innovation driven reduction lies in stimulating rapid and sustainable growth in the agricultural
stage of development, competitiveness is linked to the rapid ability to shift to new sector.
technologies. Innovation-driven economies are typical in countries that compete on
business sophistication and innovation II.1.1. Contribution of the agricultural sector in the national economy
As a matter of fact Rwanda is still at the stage of a factor driven economy. It is highly
The contribution of agriculture in the GDP still remains very important (38% in 2006
based on agriculture for domestic consumption, export of primary goods, and has a
and 33% in 2008). Nevertheless, since a few years, such an aspect has been
large unskilled labor force. However, given its small size and continuously degrading
diminishing for the three last past years, dropping from 38% in 2006 to 36% in 2007
soils due to high population density, being landlocked, lack of substantial natural
and 33% in 2008. The level of growth within the sector has remained relatively high
resources; it is hard for Rwanda to achieve any comparative advantage vis a vis its
during the same period for it has gone through a 3% growth in 2006, 3% in 2007 and
regional counterparts or other developing countries endowed with resources.
9% in 2008. Such growth is attributable to an increase of arable lands ; but also to
This justifies the vision 2020 to base the economy on technology led services—not only and chiefly to different initiatives aimed at increasing productivity ; notably the
that this is the ultimate goal in the stages of development, but mostly because Rwanda
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initiatives by the Rwandan Government in planning and using swamps, in providing

improved seeds and other agricultural entrants.
Food crop production forms the majority of the agricultural sector. Export crops (coffee
and tea) are still a very small proportion of the sector. On the basis of 2008 statistic
data, within 33% of the GDP represented by the contribution of the agricultural sector,
28% stem from food crops, 1% export crops, 2% livestock, 3% forestry and 0,003%
fisheries
Productivity of the rare existing big size exploitations (4 ha or above, say 1,4% of
exploitations) can be two-fold that of those of less than 1ha (80% of exploitations)
functional to easier use of more modern farming techniques and higher use of
agricultural entrants.
II.1.2. Agriculture production in Rwanda
Data from the agriculture survey (NISR 2009) shows that the bulk of the agricultural
production meets the consumption needs of farmers alone. As for food crops, sale is
inferior to 50% except for fruit category (52.3%). For the overall production, self
consumption is estimated at 59% of the whole food products. In fact, it should be
observed that products which make up the traditional food stuff of the population
comprise in terms of tons the most important quantities of the production such as
displayed in the following table.
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Table 4: Annual Agricultural Crop Production (in tons)
Cereals Tubers
Sorghum Maize Wheat Rice Cereals Mild Fresh Sweet Irish potato Taro Yam Tubers Total
Grains Total Cassava bitter potato
Cassava
113 146 79 435 8 247 31 393 232 223 174 371 804 170 1 134 286 626 509 110 607 3 174 2 853 117
Pulses Oleaginous Sugar
Dwarf beans Twinin Peas Total Soybean Ground Sunflower Oleaginou Sugar cane
g Pulses nut s Total
beans
185 480 96 835 14 285 296 600 11 472 16 324 2 625 30 421 58 838
Legumes
Green beans Fresh Fresh Maize Caulifl Cabbage Tomato Carrot Cucumber Beetroot Lettuce Spinach Culin
beans peas fresh ower garlic
ear
2 319 43 500 5 170 44 967 383 70 828 41 035 7 889 470 3 055 67 329 430
Vegetables
Eggplant Marrow Onion Gombo Leek Sweet Celery Parsley Pepper Mushroom Dodo Sombe Moringa
pepper
30 059 25 478 8 331 20 1 822 1 957 392 40 643 9 108 34 279 12 350 22
Fruits
Cooking Beer Fruit Orange Lemon Mango Guava Passion Pineapple Strawberry Papaya Avocado Others
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banana banana banana fruit
senge
667 637 796 130 91 191 1 582 2 154 6 565 4 347 351 18 208 42 7 653 79 291 3 844
Spices Stimulants Others
Dwarf Vanilla Coffee Tea Tobacco Pyrethrum Geranium Macadami Ibobere Pacuri Trade Ornamental Other
pepper a flowers flowers Total
617 15 27 518 18 732 1 170 335 48 84 23 88 78 122 1 948
Source: National Agriculture Survey, 2008
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II.1.2.1.FOOD CROPS II.2. Proportion of households drawing profit from

incomes generated by the agriculture sector
The contribution of Food crops to GDP is still very preponderant (32% in 2006 and 28% in
2008). Nonetheless, this contribution has diminished over the past few years; from 32% in 2006 II.2.1.Proportion of farmer households in the overall country
to 30% in 2007 and to 28% in 2008. The share to GDP has diminished but the production of
food crops ahs registered a steady high growth over the same period: 1% growth in 2006, 4% in In 2008, the number of farmer households in Rwanda amounted to
2007 and 9% in 2008. 1.674.687 representing 85% of the whole Rwandan population, which was
estimated at 9.831.501.
II.1.2.2.EXPORT CROPS
II.2.2. Characteristics of farmer households
As regards export crops, they only contribute modestly to the GDP, and their contribution In 2008, female farmer heads of families represented 27% overall and those
remains very weak, say 1% for the period from 2006 to 2008. Its growth rate has much been who could read and write only represented 30%. The literacy rate of farmer
fluctuating during the same period (-14% in 2006, 43% in 2007 and -16% in 2008). The level households is weak because 37.8% of heads of households can neither
of growth within the sector has relatively remained high during the same period since it has read nor write, 7.4% only can read and only 54.8% can read or write. The
undergone a growth of 33% in 2006, -29% in 2007 and 33% in 2008. level of literacy of the heads of farmer households is not very high because
only 7.9% among them had been able to go beyond primary school. Farmer
II.1.2.3.ANIMAL REARING AND HUSBANDRY women heads of families who went beyond primary school simply account
for 4%.
The contribution of animal rearing and husbandry to GDP equally remains modest because it
has been stagnant at 2% for the period 2006-2008. Its growth level was 4 % in 2006, 5% in II.3. Proportion of the agriculture sector labor
2007 and 3% in 2008. force in the national work force
II.1.2.4.FISHING
According to results from EICV II, the proportion of the agricultural work
force in the national work force represents 78.8%.. These proportions vary
The contribution of fishing to GDP is insignificant (almost 0% of GDP). Its level of growth was 3 according to the place of residence. In Kigali city, farmer workforce
% in 2006, 3% in 2007 and 3% in 2008. represents 14.2% of the total workforce; in the remaining cities it represents
55% and 86.5% in the rural area.
II.1.2.5.FORESTRY
II.3.1.Main activities of farmer heads of households
The contribution of forestry to GDP also remains modest for it has been of 3% over the period
According to the national agricultural survey 2008, farming most of the time
2006-2008. Its level of growth has been 8 % in 2006, 3% in 2007 and 3% in 2008.
is the main occupation of head of household, say 90.4% in the overall
(88,6% for male heads of households and 95.1% for female heads of
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households). Other core activities are carried by farmer heads of households but rather in slight From the table 5 below, it is observed that a little more than two-thirds of the
proportions. For instance, independent artisans (1,4%), salaried artisans (1,2%), agricultural farming lands are used for food crops, that pastures and grazing lands
manual workers (0.9%), agricultural family help (0,8%), traders(0,8%), non-agricultural workers occupy 10% of arable land. So do forestation areas. Only 6.7% of
(0.7%) and agricultural salaried people at last (0.3%) agricultural lands are kept in fallow.
II.3.2.Secondary activities practiced by the farming population The average farm size is very small. 56.85 of farms are less than half a
hectare (<0.5 ha), farms of two hectares and above only represent 6.2% in
Many farmers, heads of households undertake secondary activities in addition to their main the overall. Furthermore, on the average, each farm is made up of different
activity. This is the case of 43.7% of them. The main practiced secondary activities range from small plots.
agricultural manual work (7.9%), tradesmen (5.9%), and independent artisans (5.5%), non-
agricultural workforce (3.9%) and house servants (3.9%).
II.4. Use of natural resources in the agricultural sector
II.4.1.Use of plots for farming purposes (arable land, urban space)
The total area occupied by agricultural exploitation is 1.280.750 ha, thus accounting for half of
the total surface of the country, which amounts to 2.531.310 ha.
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Table 5: Distribution of Agricultural Land (%) by District and Its Use.
Province District Food Cash Forage Fallow Uncultivated forests Other Total
crops crops crops fields/ use
Pasture
Nyarugenge 83.1% 0.40% 0.20% 8.40% 0.00% 7.80% 0.00% 100%

Gasabo 59.80% 2.60% 3.10% 5.90% 1.60% 26.90% 0.00% 100%
Kicukiro 78.70% 1.30% 13.30% 0.40% 0.00% 6.20% 0.00% 100%
Kigali City Sub-total 67.90% 2.00% 4.70% 5.30% 1.00% 19.30% 0.00% 100%
Nyanza 82.00% 5.10% 2.90% 4.90% 0.90% 4.10% 0.00% 100%
Gisagara 80.10% 3.20% 0.90% 9.30% 2.60% 3.80% 0.20% 100%
Nyaruguru 33.80% 12.40% 2.90% 7.80% 4.30% 37.60% 1.20% 100%
Huye 47.70% 1.90% 0.60% 4.90% 1.90% 42.00% 0.90% 100%
Nyamagabe 61.80% 6.20% 1.30% 8.30% 3.40% 18.20% 0.80% 100%
Ruhango 72.70% 4.80% 2.20% 10.50% 2.40% 7.30% 0.20% 100%
Muhanga 81.70% 2.30% 0.90% 4.90% 0.10% 10.00% 0.10% 100%
Kamonyi 67.50% 8.90% 1.30% 9.60% 1.10% 10.80% 0.70% 100%
South Sub-total 63.20% 6.00% 1.60% 7.40% 2.20% 18.90% 0.60% 100%
West Karongi 60.20% 8.10% 0.80% 8.10% 9.70% 11.80% 1.30% 100%
Ngororero 75.10% 1.60% 0.60% 12.80% 0.90% 8.00% 0.90% 100%
Nyabihu 83.20% 2.80% 0.90% 3.90% 0.60% 8.00% 0.60% 100%
Rubavu 88.60% 2.30% 0.50% 3.60% 0.00% 4.70% 0.20% 100%
Rutsiro 59.50% 5.30% 2.10% 9.70% 8.60% 14.60% 0.00% 100%
Rusizi 74.10% 6.80% 1.40% 3.50% 1.00% 12.10% 1.10% 100%
Nyamasheke 73.90% 8.80% 3.60% 2.90% 2.00% 8.60% 0.20% 100%
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Sub-total 71.30% 5.60% 1.50% 6.90% 4.00% 10.10% 0.70% 100%

Rulindo 75.40% 2.50% 1.20% 7.90% 0.40% 12.00% 0.60% 100%
Gakenke 73.60% 3.10% 0.70% 6.90% 0.60% 14.40% 0.70% 100%
Musanze 82.70% 3.40% 2.60% 1.10% 0.00% 10.00% 0.10% 100%
Burera 78.90% 0.60% 2.40% 9.40% 0.40% 8.10% 0.20% 100%
Gicumbi 77.90% 2.90% 2.00% 11.40% 1.90% 3.20% 0.60% 100%
North Sub-total 77.50% 2.50% 1.70% 7.40% 0.70% 9.70% 0.50% 100%
Bugesera 73.40% 2.80% 3.90% 14.90% 2.50% 2.10% 0.40% 100%
Rwamagana 74.60% 2.80% 5.10% 7.50% 4.00% 5.70% 0.20% 100%
Gatsibo 83.20% 2.90% 0.60% 6.30% 3.90% 3.10% 0.00% 100%
Kayonza 84.20% 5.20% 0.30% 8.50% 0.10% 1.30% 0.40% 100%
Kirehe 89.70% 1.30% 1.20% 3.40% 0.50% 3.80% 0.00% 100%
Ngoma 85.70% 2.90% 1.80% 5.40% 1.70% 2.20% 0.40% 100%
Nyagatare 31.60% 0.40% 0.40% 1.70% 61.40% 0.70% 3.80% 100%
East Sub-total 62.70% 2.00% 1.50% 5.80% 24.40% 2.10% 1.60% 100%
Total 67.10% 3.90% 1.60% 6.70% 10.00% 9.80% 0.90% 100%
Source: NISR (2009b)
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II.4.2.Use of water for agricultural purposes
Water supply for crops is very limited. The following table shows that the main mode of supply
is rain water (98% arable lands), next comes drainage (1% of arable lands), irrigation canals
(0.6% of arable lands) and watering (0.4% of arable lands). In fact, it is worth taking into
account that the greatest majority of agricultural exploitations are located on hillsides and that
only 15.8% are situated on valleys and 2.2% in swamps. In the same vein, the applied farming
technique is the traditional one in 99.9% of agricultural exploitations.
Table 6: Proportion of Agricultural Land by District According to the Main Method of

Water Supply to Crops, by Ha.
Type of Crops
Irrigated Total
Province District Rainfed crops crops Drainage Watering
ha % ha % ha % ha % ha %
Nyarugenge 5 581 99.50% 6 0.10% 23 0.40% 0 0.00% 5 609 100%

Kigali Gasabo 20 481 97.90% 174 0.80% 74 0.40% 181 0.90% 20 910 100%
City
Kicukiro 6 195 96.20% 38 0.60% 174 2.70% 33 0.50% 6 440 100%
Sub-total 32 256 97.90% 217 0.70% 271 0.80% 214 0.60% 32 959 100%
Nyanza 30 129 97.20% 487 1.60% 290 0.90% 86 0.30% 30 992 100%
Gisagara 31 704 94.20% 444 1.30% 1 149 3.40% 351 1.00% 33 647 100%
Nyaruguru 56 138 97.00% 328 0.60% 1 312 2.30% 94 0.20% 57 873 100%
Huye 40 897 96.60% 300 0.70% 997 2.40% 158 0.40% 42 352 100%
South Nyamagabe 45 385 99.10% 195 0.40% 187 0.40% 51 0.10% 45 818 100%
Ruhango 30 819 96.40% 318 1.00% 228 0.70% 616 1.90% 31 980 100%
Muhanga 43 918 98.20% 85 0.20% 541 1.20% 158 0.40% 44 703 100%
Kamonyi 38 008 95.80% 551 1.40% 651 1.60% 473 1.20% 39 682 100%
Sub-total 316 997 96.90% 2 709 0.80% 5 354 1.60% 1 987 0.60% 327 047 100%
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Karongi 62 225 99.60% 0 0.00% 36 0.10% 185 0.30% 62 446 100%

Ngororero 43 280 99.00% 95 0.20% 316 0.70% 22 0.10% 43 713 100%
Nyabihu 27 513 99.70% 57 0.20% 33 0.10% 0 0.00% 27 602 100%
Rubavu 18 170 96.30% 65 0.30% 46 0.20% 580 3.10% 18 860 100%
West
Rutsiro 34 096 97.60% 123 0.40% 710 2.00% 0 0.00% 34 929 100%
Rusizi 34 206 96.70% 286 0.80% 847 2.40% 31 0.10% 35 371 100%
Nyamasheke 46 510 98.90% 377 0.80% 123 0.30% 32 0.10% 47 042 100%
Sub-total 266 000 98.50% 1 004 0.40% 2 108 0.80% 851 0.30% 269 963 100%
Rulindo 42 813 97.80% 292 0.70% 340 0.80% 335 0.80% 43 780 100%
Gakenke 46 685 98.60% 309 0.70% 310 0.70% 23 0.00% 47 327 100%
Musanze 37 562 99.60% 11 0.00% 82 0.20% 72 0.20% 37 727 100%
North
Burera 39 998 99.00% 117 0.30% 228 0.60% 52 0.10% 40 395 100%
Gicumbi 41 118 97.10% 797 1.90% 231 0.50% 202 0.50% 42 348 100%
Sub-total 208 176 98.40% 1 526 0.70% 1 190 0.60% 685 0.30% 211 577 100%
Bugesera 63 137 98.30% 186 0.30% 689 1.10% 204 0.30% 64 216 100%
Rwamagana 32 975 98.00% 53 0.20% 121 0.40% 488 1.50% 33 638 100%
Gatsibo 55 794 95.70% 392 0.70% 1 802 3.10% 282 0.50% 58 271 100%
Kayonza 46 820 98.90% 17 0.00% 195 0.40% 293 0.60% 47 325 100%
East
Kirehe 37 929 97.30% 513 1.30% 538 1.40% 0 0.00% 38 981 100%
Ngoma 36 419 97.40% 487 1.30% 443 1.20% 26 0.10% 37 375 100%
Nyagatare 158 312 99.30% 837 0.50% 233 0.10% 18 0.00% 159 399 100%
Sub-total 431 386 98.20% 2 485 0.60% 4 021 0.90% 1 312 0.30% 439 205 100%
1 280
Total 1 254 817 98.00% 7 941 0.60% 12 944 1.00% 5 049 0.40% 751 100%
Source: ENA 2008
Figure 4:Trading Centres 2010 (next page)
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22
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II.5. Fishing Table 7: Fish Production and Income by Province and District during
2008
Quantity Quantity Annual

(Kg) Fish (Kg) Fish Quantity
from fish from (kg) Fish
Province District ponds lakes/rivers
Nyarugenge 0 51 688 51 688

Kigali City Gasabo 0 838 838
Sub-total 0 52 526 52 526
Nyanza 0 21 210 21 210
South Gisagara 11 274 2 082 13 356
Sub-total 11 274 23 292 34 566
Rubavu 0 9 488 9 488
Rutsiro 0 24 208 24 208
West Rusizi 0 1 676 974 1 676 974
Nyamasheke 0 301 776 301 776
Sub-total 0 2 012 444 2 012 444
Fish production comes especially from Kivu Lake. According to information provided by the
Musanze 0 82 498 82 498
fishing project in CYANGUGU, the annual fishing potential on Kivu Lake is estimated North
between 9.313 and 14.900 tons of which 3.300 tons from the Rwandan part of the lake. In Sub-total 0 82 498 82 498
1992, thanks to the fishing project on the Kivu Lake, the quantity of fish from Kivu Lake on East Bugesera 10 426 14 280 24 704
the Rwandan side reached 2.334 tons. Currently, the fishing project is undergoing a full
restructuring following to the privatization of the Project. Rwamagana 0 4 920 4 920
Kirehe 0 22 638 22 638
Data from the national agriculture survey (2008), show that fishing is carried out on a
permanent basis on the banks of Kivu Lake in the Western Province. However, it is worth Ngoma 2 870 132 264 135 136
noting that Rwanda is a net importer of fish. Nyagatare 62 0 62
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Sub-total 13 358 174 102 187 460 staples that meet the family’s food needs and value chain agricultural
Total 24 632 2 344 864 2 369 496 enterprises. For instance, only 1% of rural households are directly involved in
the production of tea, while 10% are directly involved in the production of coffee
Source: NISR (2009b) (IFPR, 2007a). Lack of opportunities to produce cash crops contributes not only
to the low income levels and high poverty rates among these households, but
As shown by the table above, national fish production amounted to 2.369,2 tons in 2008, also to their inability to fully benefit from rapid agricultural growth.
distributed as follows: from fish ponds, 24,636 tons representing 1% and 2.344,8 tons from
lakes and rivers, representing 99%. II.6.1. Growth scenario and agriculture policy
As to the incomes drawn from this production, it is directly proportionate to the productive Rwanda is prompted by the will and determination to reach the objectives set by
capacity of each province: Western Province 77%, Eastern Province 13%, Northern the NEPAD (CAADP) for the agricultural sub-sector; notably a 6% growth in
Province 7%, Southern Province 2%, and lastly Kigali city 1%. Africa. A survey conducted by International Food Policy Research Institute
entitled ‘The Role of Agriculture in Development, Implications for Sub-Saharan
II.6. Future perspectives for the agriculture sector Africa’ concluded that this average growth rate is attainable. Furthermore,
current agricultural statistics prove it.
According to M.P. Jones (ISAR, 2007), agricultural development and food and nutrition
security is a key pillar in the fight against poverty and sustainable natural resource On the other hand, the country is striving to achieve the objectives of the
management. In recognition of the potential of the agricultural sector to contribute to socio- millennium development goals (MDGs) and a study entitled ‘The Role of
economic growth in Africa, the African Union and the New Partnership for Africa’s Agriculture in Development, Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa’ Agricultural
Development (AU-NEPAD) developed the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Growth and Investment (Options for Poverty Reduction) (IFPR, 2007b), which
Program (CAADP) which has the vision of an Africa where agricultural productivity of 6% was also conducted by International Food Policy Research Institute has
annual growth by 2015 is attained. In the case of Rwanda, International Food Policy concluded that in a bid to achieve this, the annual average growth in the
Research Institute (IFPR I, 2007) indicated that the projected 6% growth is however agricultural domain must be of 9%.
insufficient to meet the MDG of halving poverty by 2015 and, a 9% annual growth beginning Meeting the CAADP six percent agricultural growth target will require the
2006 through 2015 is required in meeting the MDG’s. allocation of public resources to the agricultural sector to rise by between 10
Looking at overall poverty-reduction effects, based on the 6% annual growth in agricultural and 17.6 percent of total spending by 2015, depending on efficiency in
and non –agricultural sectors, agricultural growth is more important at both the national and spending. This level of allocation translates, in real terms, as 15 to 30 percent
household levels. While agriculture contributes 50% of total GDP growth, it also contributes annual growth in agricultural spending.
over 60% of the reduction in national poverty rate. Given that agriculture needs to grow at 6.5 percent over the period of 14 to 15
Let us also note that, in Rwanda, rural income sources are predominantly derived from years to meet the goal of halving the national poverty rate by 2020, more rapid
agriculture. The very small farm size of 0.3 ha owned by 40% of rural households, comprise growth in agricultural spending between 2008 and 2015 is required. The original
only 6% of the country’s agricultural land and this is partly responsible for the very low cost estimation prepared by MINAGRI (2007) without scaling down is about 10
income and high poverty (IFPRI, 2007). Most of smallholders are compelled to cultivate percent of the total government budget by 2015, which is not only consistent
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with the CAADP target, but also is able to support agricultural growth to achieve more than II.6.2.DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES: Investment and exports
six percent annual growth, helping the country meet the target set by CAADP and MDG1.
The agro-processing industry in Rwanda has potential to meet both local needs
II.6.1.1.Low Growth Scenario and expand Rwanda’s export sector. There are mainly four strategic
opportunities, which are cross cutting and can support the development of
The low growth scenario for the agricultural sector is estimated at 6% for the period from agriculture sector:
2010 up to 2020. This scenario is based on the following assumptions:
FERTILIZER MANUFACTURING PLANT
Crop intensification and specialization following the agricultural output/ yield of
agricultural zones or areas;
Lake Kivu water contains a large quantity of dissolved gases—mostly CO2 and
Progressive improvement of farming methods and techniques; methane. Rwanda has just started to extract methane gas from Lake Kivu for
generation of power. This will allow urea to be produced from the methane
Increased use of fertilizers; component of the lake gas. Urea is the primary nitrogen fertilizer in use globally.
A new ammonia/urea plant close to the lake would be well located to supply
Better land protection; urea to the agricultural sector of Rwanda as well as to the surrounding
countries, none of which produce urea.
Easier selling of the surplus produce over local consumption.
ASSEMBLY PLANT (TO ASSEMBLE AGRICULTURE MACHINERY)
II.6.1.2.High Growth Scenario
Crop productivity can be significantly enhanced by using appropriate tools that
The high growth scenario that can be retained for the agricultural sector is that of 9% for the can increase the efficiency, consistency and the pace of field operations such
period from 2010 up to 2020. It is based on the assumptions of the former scenario plus the as land preparation, weeding, harvesting, and transportation of inputs and
following: agricultural produces. At the moment, all agriculture machinery and tools are
imported assembled. Whilst Rwanda does not possess the manufacturing
Use of improved seeds by more than 60% in each agricultural season; capacity to produce these machineries, it can reduce their cost by having an
assembly plant implanted locally.
Agriculture prices continuing to be at a high level;
IRRIGATION PROJECT
Continuous improvement of the storage system;
Extension of agricultural product export market. In order to support model land-husbandry, innovative water-harvesting and
hillside irrigation, this project could demonstrate improved land-husbandry and
productivity on 35,800 ha lands in 34 pilot watersheds and irrigated agriculture
on 12,000 ha distributed in 32 locations. The hillside-irrigation program is
focused on highly economical horticultural crops such as mangoes, avocado,
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cooking banana and pineapple but also on coffee and tea. The overall objective of the LWH COFFEE
is to increase the productivity of hillside agriculture in Rwanda but more importantly to
engage in commercial agriculture so as to diverse on revenue sources. Rwanda’s natural attributes (elevation and soil) have been recognized as
ANIMAL FEED FACTORY favorable to growing high quality Arabica. Rwanda is promoting fully washing
coffee, to help producers to take advantage of the quality attributes that are
inherent to coffee. The specialty coffee segment has been growing steadily.
Animal feed is a key input in improving the nutrition of livestock; better nutrition in turn Although the world prices for commercial grade coffee have been declining, the
increases the productivity of livestock e.g., cows produce more milk. Rwanda has sufficient price of high quality coffees from Rwanda has remained high. Thus by
raw materials needed to set up a feed industry. Maize, rice, wheat, soya-beans, fish and concentrating on producing specialty coffee, Rwanda can maintain good coffee
bones are the key ingredients in feed manufacture, and they are available in Rwanda. In prices. Considering the potential for Rwandan coffee, Rwanda will need
making commercial feed, maize, wheat and rice bran that are by products of maize and roasting plants to optimize profits from coffee.
wheat milling and rice preparation make more than 70% of the feed.
TEA
HORTICULTURE
In order to diversify Rwanda’s export base and reduce dependence on coffee and tea, the
government recently identified horticulture (flowers, fruits and vegetables) as one of the non-
traditional crops for export development. Most horticultural crops grown in the country -
passion fruits, pineapples, citrus, avocadoes, mangoes, Japanese plum, apple bananas,
gooseberry, strawberry, water melon, pawpaw, guava, various types of vegetables, flowers,
and ornamentals are consumed locally with small quantities exported to both Europe and
the region and this can be improved.
DAIRY
With milk production increasing rapidly, there is a growing surplus of milk, which can be
processed. In response to this opportunity, private companies are already expanding their
capacity to take advantage of the increase in milk availability in the country. In addition to
processing for the domestic market, Rwanda is centrally located and has good roads linking
her to neighbouring countries like Congo and Burundi which are huge regional markets for
milk and milk products. These countries do not have well established dairies of their own
and Rwanda has an opportunity to serve those large markets by developing the dairy
industry.
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Rwanda’s natural attributes (elevation and soil) have been recognized as favorable to In the same vein, no construction is allowed in swampy areas. Several
growing high quality tea and this has given Rwanda its recognition as a producer of high marshlands, however, are being prepared and others are used for producing
quality tea. For this reason most international tea blenders seek Rwandan tea with its food crops such as cereals, vegetables and flowers.
distinct flavor to blend with other low quality teas to improve their quality. All tea is fully
processed in tea factories to consumable level. Then it is sold in bulk in the auction market III. CONSTRUCTION
at Mombasa at very low prices. In order to increase the price received for Rwandan
tea, there is a need to blend and package the teas and export some of the tea III.1.Contribution to the economy
production directly to high end buyers and consumers.
Construction is classified under the industrial sector in Rwanda. It is in fact the
FOOD CROP: MAIZE, RICE AND CASSAVA major contributor to this secondary sector, followed by manufacturing. This is
only logical given the post genocide need for residential and business housing,
Food crops forms the bulk of the agricultural sector, representing 28% of GDP in 2008. public offices, roads, etc.
Major food crops include: maize, wheat, cassava, Irish potato, rice, beans and banana.
The share of construction to GDP was 6% in 2006 and 8% in 2008. To the
Investments to introduce improved processing technologies in these facilities are required
secondary sector, construction contributed 44,5% in 2006 and 50% in 2008.
II.7. FISH AND CROP EXPORTS BOOSTED UP BY IRRIGATION
This is evident that, the share of construction in the secondary sector, but also
in the economy at large has been on the increase. Evidence also shows that
Only flowers have been exported due to irrigation. Flower exports have been generally a this sector has been booming over the last years. It grew by 13% in 2006 and
small proportion of the total horticulture exports (Currently, horticultural exports are very up to 26% in 2008.
small – 7 million USD in 2008, equivalent to 2.7% of total exports). This is because the
flower industry requires heavy investment, which local investors are reluctant to make. A BNR reports that the production of construction materials has also increased
feasibility study indicated that one hectare of flower production needs 450,000 USD over years sue to high demand on the market. In 2008, the volume of nails,
investments for 1 hectare; for the minimum recommended acreage of 10 hectares an corrugated roofing, iron sheets and pipes increased by 15,9%, 14,7%, and 9,5%
investment of 4.5 million USD is required. respectively (BNR, 2009).
II.8. Urban space spill over on agricultural land Employment in the construction sector was estimated to 1.5% of total
employment in 2006 (EICV II). In the Kigali urban area alone, construction
In the framework of fighting poverty, the Rwandan Government has been implementing the employs 7.2% of adult workers compared to 3.2% in other urban areas and
policy of clustered habitat (Imidugudu) so as to preserve arable land at the most. In the 0.9% in rural areas.
urban as well as rural areas, all new constructions are being compulsorily clustered on a plot In 2006, the construction sector alone created 6,5% of new jobs. Of the total
located in a specific area allocated for this purpose. Even constructions to be rehabilitated non-farm wage jobs created in 2006, construction came third with 11,6% ahead
are compulsorily transferred to the area mentioned above. Accordingly, it is foreseen that of other sectors like trade, mining, manufacturing, transport and communication,
future, dwelling constructions will be totally located off arable land. financial services.
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III.2.Development opportunities
Based on demographics and urbanization trends, housing needs are enormous in Rwanda.
It is estimated that 25,000 new houses should be built yearly in urban areas (BNR, 2009).
Rwanda has a young and rapidly urbanizing population that stimulates the demand for
urban housing. With an average housing price of Rwf 20 million in 2008, there is a financing
need of up to Rwf 500 billion per year.
Though a significant number of estates were developed by especially government

institutions and some private property developers, the total supply of mortgage remains far
below the demand.
Investment in mortgages, real estate and property (outstanding amount) grew from Rwf 60,7
billion in 2006 to 109,1 billion in 2008. This represented respectively 25,1% and 30,7% of
total outstanding loans offered by the banking sector. This clearly shows how the
investments fall short of the needed Rwf 500 billion annually.
Table 8: Raw Materials Suitable for Building Material Industry, Location and
Industrial Use in Rwanda.
Raw Present Possible Possible

Present
Location District industria
material industry product product
l location
Limestone CIMERWA Cement Mashyuza Rusizi Rusizi Aggregate

and
Dolomite & Bitagata Gicumbi Cement
KIGALI Mpatsi Karongi Glass
CEMENT
COMPANY Gitesi Karongi Karongi
Mbabara Karongi ceramics
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Filler Sebeya Rutsiro Ceramics

Kigombe Musanze material
Nkora Rutsiro
Rwaza Musanze Musanze
Mpenge Musanze
RULIBA Kigoma
Masangano Ngororero
Rwasave Huye Cement
Gihindamuya
Gatumba Ngororero CIMERWA ga Huye Brick
Kibirira Ngororero Kinyinya Gasabo Gasabo Ceramics
Karengera Nyamasheke Clays Refractory
Gacuriro Gasabo Products
Kagarama
Decorative Substitute Muyanza Lightweight
Rutsiro Rutsiro Karongi
Stones for Marble
Ntsinda Rwamagana
Mabano Karongi
Mpatsi Karongi
Rutsiro Rutsiro
Bahimba
Mabanza Karongi
Muyunzwe Muhanga
All products
of Gypsum
Silica Sand lime Gypsum Bugarama Rusizi plaster
Sands RULIBA Bricks Mashyuza Rusizi brick
Peinture Kirambo Nyamasheke Light brick Steel/Iron/
Vernis Masangano Ngororero Concrete Aluminium Butaro Burera
Cement
Mukunguri brick
Source: OGMR (2010)
Gatumba Ngororero Glass
Figure 5: Raw Materials Suitable for Building Industry in Rwanda 2010
Refractory
Rwabuye Huye Products (next page)
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30
3/29/2010
IV. ENERGY BIOMASS
Biomass is used in the form of firewood, charcoal or agricultural residues mainly

IV.1.Present Situation for cooking purposes in Rwandan Households, and also in some industries
(MININFRA : 2008a). In the rural areas, biomass meets up to 94% of national
IV.1.1.Energy Demand in Rwanda needs; with the balance being met by other options such as kerosene, diesel,
dry cells, grid and non-electricity, biogas, solar, wind and other renewable
Several indicators point to an energy crisis in Rwanda including: accelerated deforestation, energies. Biomass is already in short supply with the country facing a biomass
a biomass energy deficit and deterioration and distribution in electricity generation. Much of deficit of over 4 million m3 per year.
the energy consumed in Rwanda today still comes from wood (80.4%) while Biomass is
already in short supply with the country facing a biomass deficit of over 4 million m3 per MININFRA’s baseline survey carried out in 2009 revealed that the main sources
year. of energy used for cooking were firewood (74.7%), and coal (23.4%). Wood is
used much more in rural areas (97%) than in urban centres (70.6%), and 39.6%
The installed electricity generation capacity is extremely low at 85.3 MW from all energy in the city of Kigali; while coal is used more in the city of Kigali (57.6%)
sources (MININFRA 2010). Only 9% of the population has access to electricity, and there is (MININFRA: 2009c).
a gap in national electricity production of more than 30% which is filled by electricity
imported from Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda (Electrogaz 2009). According to Although fuel wood consumption is expected to increase in the short term, the
Privatisation Secretariat (undated), the energy demand by sector is as follows: 91% long term strategy is to reduce fuel wood consumption up to 50 per cent by the
households, 4.5% Transport, 2.7% Industry, 1.8% Public services. end of 2020. Rwanda is expected to continue using firewood which will be
capped at 25 per cent for Kigali, 40 per cent for other urban areas and 90 per
IV.1.2.Source of Energy in Rwanda cent for rural areas and be suppressed progressively with the introduction of
LPG and other alternatives including solar and thermal applications. However
The energy sector in Rwanda is made up of three sub-sectors: power, hydrocarbon and new due to uncertainty in introduction of LPG and solar thermal applications, the
and renewable sources of energy. Amongst the renewable sources of energy are biomass, high levels of production for Improved Cooking Stoves will be maintained
solar, peat, wind, geothermal and hydropower. Biomass is the most used and dominates (MININFRA: 2009c), the introduction of improved cooking ovens grows. The
both the demand and supply sides of the Rwandan economy. The current national energy use of these ovens is greater in Rural areas (72.7 %) and other urban centres
balance of 86, 11 and 3 per cent of all energy consumed is used from of biomass (57%: (58.1%) than in the city of Kigali (24.8%)) and the market influenced to evolve
Wood, 23%: Wood for charcoal, 6%: Agricultural, Peat), hydrocarbons and electricity, with the entry of the new fuels and technologies. Let us note also that the
respectively. firewood ICS are cheaper than the charcoal ICS at US $3 compared to US $6
respectively (REMA, 2009).
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Figure 6: Power Lines and Transformers (next page)
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33
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Power
POWER/ELECTRICITY
Solar
Power Kigali Solar 0,25
Power production has increased and stabilized since the severe power shortages in 2004
and total installed capacity has increased from 45 MW in 2006 to 74.5MW in 2008 and to Methane
85.3 MW in 2009. However, this has been achieved with significant reliance on imported Gaz KP1 4,2
diesel thermal generation. In addition, According to Electrogaz (2009), for the year 2008, Total 85,3
total national consumption of electricity was estimated to be 276517394 kWh among them,
70.16% of National production, 0.78% of export, and 30.61% of imports. Source: MININFRA, 2009 Report
Table 9: Current Electricity Generation Capacity. It is worth noting that currently, 137287 grid connections, including households,
industries, schools, health facilities etc. and 2428 off grid customers connected
Installed to micro-hydro or solar schemes. The target for the number of electricity
Capacity connections in 2008 was 100,000 connections and the performance realized
Category Name (MW) was of 110,000 connections (approximately 5% of households) from a baseline
of 91,332 in 2006. This was largely attributed to the successful implementation
Ntaruka 11,5
of the electricity network expansion rollout program initiated by the Ministry of
Mukungwa 12 infrastructure (MININFRA).
Gihira 1
150,000 carbon fluorescent lamps (CFL) have been distributed to improve
Hydropower Gisenyi 1,2 energy economization and to reduce wastage.
Mutobo 0,2
Importantly, a number of policy actions have been implemented to further
Agatobwe 0,2 consolidate gains made in the sector; the national energy policy was completed
Nyamyotsi 0,1 and validated by sector stakeholders and submitted to Cabinet, a strategic note
on electricity tariff, taxes and incentives was prepared and validated by
Regional Rusizi I 3,5
stakeholders in December 2008. Furthermore, a Memorandum of
Hydropower Rusizi II 12 Understanding (MoU) was signed between Government and Development
Jabana HFO 20,5 Partners as a first output of a Sector Wide Approach (SWAP) in the energy sub-
Thermal
sector. The law on Electricity and Gas was approved by Cabinet and has been
Power Jabana Diesel 7,8 forwarded to Parliament for approval.
Rented
Gikondo Diesel 10 The 2nd phase of the electricity Master Plan is also being developed as part of
Thermal
the clean water and electricity supply program, and the Ministry of infrastructure
34
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has signed a contract with 2 Independent power producers for generation of electricity as an PEAT
attempt to engage more with the private sector.
Cost reflective tariffs will be introduced as soon as Rwanda can remove expensive rented Rwanda has peat reserves estimated at 155 million tones and therefore has the
diesel power from its generation mix. potential to replace wood, charcoal and fuel oil (MINFRA2008b:Energy sector
strategy, August 2008. Ministry of Infrastructure (MININFRA), Kigali). It is
It is worth noting that, although electricity is consumed mainly in urban areas, there are cost estimated that about a third is commercially extractable and can be used for
implications of these expenditures to the rest of the economy. Kigali alone consumes about direct use as source of heat or for production of electricity. While power
60 per cent of the entire generated electricity (UNDP: 2007) production from peat is still in a planning stage, the use of peat as burning fuel
has already been tested in community institutions, for brick making, Cement
HYDROCARBON making and the cottage industry (MININFRA 2009a). To REMA (2009), the
environmental impacts assessment of commercial exploitation is needed before
Rwanda is completely dependent on imported petroleum products. Hydrocarbons serve as a peat can serve as a realistic energy alternative.
source of electricity by powering diesel generators, and are also used in the transport GEOTHERMAL
sector. About 45% of the electricity produced in Rwanda is produced by diesel generators.
Hydrocarbons almost constitute the unique source in the transportation system and the chief Rwanda possesses geothermal resources in the form of hot springs along the
source of energy used for lighting, especially in rural areas. According to MININFRA (2009 belt of Lake KIVU with a power generation potential of about 170-320 MW.
MIS report), Oil/ heating oil is the source of energy that is mostly used for lighting (63.1%), Preliminary technical exploration studies are currently being conducted.
According to the same report, heating oil is used more often in rural areas (77,9%) but also
in other urban areas (56.4%) and in Kigali (43.9%). WIND
METHANE GAS
The potential of wind as a source of energy is currently being investigated.
However, some researches have come to demonstrate that wind energy is
One of the biggest inputs into the electricity grid in the near future will be power generated difficult to exploit in Rwanda. The reasons are that few sites are sufficiently
from methane gas extracted from the bottom of Lake Kivu. It is estimated to contain about exposed to the wind on regular basis and that winds have hardly the needed
55 billion m3 of dissolved methane gas (MININFRA 2009b). The first efforts to utilize the speed in order to produce constant energy.
methane deposits were undertaken in the late 1950s with 1.5 million cubic meters of gas
being supplied annually to nearby BRALIRWA brewery.
According to a rough estimate, the methane potential in the lake is equivalent to 40 million Figure 7: Sites for Potential Development of Energy (next page)
tons oil equivalent, which means an estimated 700 MW can be produced by power plants
continuously at least over a period of 55 years assuming an extraction rate of one billion
cubic meters of methane per year (MININFRA 2009b)
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36
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DIVERSIFICATION OF ENERGY SOURCES AND SUPPLY IV.2.Development Opportunities

SECURITY
An important issue that is currently being addressed by the Government is
A number of projects on diversification of Energy sources have been executed between increasing the national power generation capacity through construction of
2008 and 2009: national hydropower plants, namely Rukarara and Nyabarongo (total 37 MW),
the signing of agreements with an independent power producer for 100 MW
Substitution of wood/coal: Household. Biogas (- 400 digesters constructed and from methane gas and ongoing negotiations for another 100 MW of methane
operational, Masons and construction companies have been trained in biogas to power. 21 Micro hydro projects are under construction and will deliver
digester construction); power to rural communities (MINECOFIN: ANNUAL REPORT ON THE
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND POVERTY
Project to Substitute wood and wood coal: Improved stoves – (Biomass Energy REDUCTION STRATEGY (EDPRS) – 2008; may 2009).
Strategy approved);
Inadequate and expensive electricity supply constitutes a limiting factor to
Rehabilitation of Bigogwe Petroleum storage (5000m3 works completed); development. Diesel generators used to produce electricity were hired by the
government to compensate power shortage resulting in the degradation of
Rehabilitation of Rwabuye Petroleum warehouse (3600m3 ) – (Contract signed); wetlands (Rugezi) and were run at 65000 USD a day for fuel. In addition,
imported petroleum products consume more than 40% of foreign exchange.
Construction of Kigali Petroleum storage (70.000m3) – (Studies ongoing);
Furthermore, wood is the source of energy for the big majority of the population,
Rwanda Geothermal resource assessment – (Investigation on geological which leads to massive deforestation and soil destruction.
structure, geochemical and geophysical reconnaissance surveys completed);
Therefore, Rwanda will have to increase energy production and diversify into
Access to Energy in Rural areas: Energy facility/CE – (Hydro: Feasibility studies alternative energy sources.
have been conducted for 3 selected sites. Tender document will be launched by
To achieve this, Rwanda has considerable hydroelectric potential, in addition to
April 2009. Solar: 350 public institutions to be electrified have been selected, Solar
large deposits of renewable methane gas in Lake Kivu, estimated at 60 billion
systems have been designed and sized)
cubic metres. Proposals have been received by MININFRA for a gas (methane)
Electrification with solar Energy – (Tender for 64 Health Centers under to liquid fuel project. In rural areas direct solar energy or photovoltaic energy
preparation, - feasibility study for 35 under development), can be used, whilst up to 1/3 of 155 million tons of peat deposit is currently
exploitable.
The sector has as objectives during the EDPRS; increasing access to electricity
for enterprises and households, and ensuring security of power supply. The
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targets for 2012 are to increase number of electricity connected households and Solar (in KWh/m2/day 5,5
enterprises from 70,000 to 200,000 for the former and from 45 MW to 50 MW for the latter. Wood-estimated (in Million tonnes) 2,3
In 2020, the target is that the percentage of Wood energy in the national energy Source: Electrogaz 2008
consumption will decrease from 94% in 2000 to 50% in 2020 (In 2009, the current
consumption of wood is estimated to be 80.4 %.). Per capita consumption of electricity is Rwanda expects to achieve 2020 energy objectives by extending the grid to
expected to grow from 30kWh to 100kWh in 2020 and also Rwanda projects that by 2020, cover new settlements and through decentralizing generation using solar,
at least 35 % of the population will be connected to electricity (up from 2% in 2000 and hydropower or using diesel generators. When extending the grids priority will be
currently estimated at 9% (in 2009). given to services, markets, districts headquarters, imidugudu, trading centres,
factories, agro-processing facilities, schools and health centres.
Rwanda has considerable hydroelectric potential, in addition to large deposits of renewable
methane gas in Lake Kivu, estimated at 60 billion cubic metres. In rural areas direct solar The goal of the National Energy Policy (ROR, 2004) is to meet the energy
energy or photovoltaic energy can be used, whilst up to 1/3 of 155 million tons of peat challenges and needs of the Rwandan population for sustainable national
deposit is currently exploitable. development. The ministry of infrastructure has identified the priority policy
actions as:
Table 10: Sites for Potential Development of Energy
Developing Lake Kivu methane and bringing on line more hydro power
Identified sites Capacity
Hydropower (in MW)

Deliver a programme of rural electrification on the basis of enhanced
distribution strategy to counter the deforestation crisis
Nyabarongo 27,5
Rukarara 9 Implement a wood and charcoal efficiency and substitution strategy to
Mukungwa II 3
counter the deforestation crisis.
Rusumo Falls (shared) 60 Specifically, with regards to rural policy, the Government of Rwanda has
Rusizi III (shared/underexploitation) 500/72 emphasized that rural energy and electrification from an integral part of
Microhydro power (in MW) Rwanda’s overall rural transformation and poverty reduction strategy .
Many locations all over Rwanda 30-500
Methane (in MW)
Figure 8: Areas and Nodes of National Interest for Energy Production
Lake Kivu 170-340
(next page)
Peat (in million tonnes) 155
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40
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V. MINING V.2. Development opportunities
For the mining sector to meet its goals within the EDPRS and Vision 2020, a
V.1. Current situation
number of measures including building domestic mineral extraction and
processing capacity, developing a service hub for mineral processing for the
Mining and quarrying are classified under the industrial sector in Rwanda. The share of sub region and enhancing locally produced construction materials need to be
mining and quarrying to GDP was 0,6% in 2006 and 1% in 2008. To the secondary sector, undertaken. This will have the potential to promote private sector participation in
mining and quarrying contributed 4,6% in 2006 and 6,3% in 2008. This is evident that, the exploration, mining and processing, and promote value addition of quarry
share of mining and quarrying in the secondary sector, but also in the economy at large has products to reduce the importing of construction materials.
been on the increase.
There are plans to identify potential areas of significant mineral deposits to be
Table 11: Major Mineral Exports mapped. The new geological surveying programmes conducted by the Geology
and Mines Authority (OGMR) will assist in attaining this objective which will
2000 2005 2008
provide valuable information to investors. Assisting cooperatives of small miners
Values Qty/kg Values Qty/kg Values Qty/kg to acquire knowledge will ensure that the mining strategy incorporates a pro-
poor component.
Cassiterite and tin 370,2 365,0 9 948,7 4 531,8 22 502,9 4 116,3
Coltan 3 296,9 524,0 9 398,7 1 061,6 20 350,2 1 222,4 Rwanda is plenty of opportunities for the investors in so far as almost all the
primary needed assets including china tableware (porcelain), cups, dishes,
Womfram 105,2 144,0 1 435,1 557,0 7 052,7 1 671,2
flower pots, floor and roofing tiles, refractories , a variety of construction
Total 3 772,3 1 033,0 20 782,6 6 150,5 49 905,8 7 010,0 materials, etc., are imported mainly from Europe and from Asia and they are
very costly. That’s why national and international investors should focus their
Source: BNR, BOP Department, 2009 activities on the quarry products such as clays in Rwanda.
The mining sector experienced intensive privatization that led to growth. As shown by the Figure 9: Map of Mineral Sites in Rwanda (next page)
previous table, BNR reports that exports of main mining products has increased over years
due to high demand on the foreign market to reach US$ 93million in 2008 , which is higher
than the sum of revenues coming from all exports crops.
Employment in the mining and quarrying sector was estimated to 0.4% of total employment
in 2006 (EICV II). In the Kigali urban area alone, mining employs 0.4% of adult workers
compared to 0.1% in other urban areas and 0.5% in rural areas.
41
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VI. TOURISM During the 1980s, the number of tourists visiting Rwanda had been increasing
regularly making this sector the third largest foreign exchange earner (after
tea and coffee). In 1994, the intensification of the war and the genocide
VI.1.CURRENT STATUS OF THE RWANDAN disrupted the sector, completely cutting it off all through the year. With the
TOURISM SECTOR reconstruction of the country, and the choice of tourism as priority sector for
achieving the 2020, significant progress in developing and managing the
The tourism sector has been earmarked as one of the pillar sectors in tourism sector in recent years has yielded tangible results.
Rwanda’s quest to transform from an agro-based to a service led economy.
Rwanda considers tourism as a job-intensive, locally consumed export which Contrary to 1984 when Rwanda received a peak number of 39,000 tourists,
can bring quality jobs and foreign currencies to a large proportion of today the tourism strategy focuses on lower visitor numbers of high value
Rwandans, along with other benefits such as creating a better image for instead of mass tourism, this is recognition of the physical constraints of the
Rwanda. In the current Economic Development and Poverty Reduction country. Tourism revenue over the past years increased tremendously from
strategy (EDPRS, 2008 - 2012), tourism is identified along with Coffee and tea US$22million (26,000 tourists) in 2005 to US$210m in 2008 (980,000 tourists).
as the three major national exports. VI.1.1. Employment in the Tourism sector
EICV II (2006) reported that around 0.2% of adult workers in Rwanda were
engaged in the recreation and tourism sector, that’s approximately 8754
persons.
A tourism master plan developed in 2009 reported:
168 tourism accommodation units with 3150 rooms – 25% suitable

for international tourists. Of these, 9 upper range hotels, 38 middle
range hotels. 116 lower range hotels—though not based on any
systematic classification. A star rating system based on EAC
standards in the offing.
Existing accommodation units provide direct employment to around

4240 persons. The employment potential of the tourism sector goes
beyond this by generating many temporary jobs for skilled and semi-
skilled workers:
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During construction of hotels; of staff in place, meaning there is a 70 per cent deficit. The shortage of skills
in the hospitality sector is serious in the private sector where the gap among
Hotel workforce at the hotel—management and support staff; the professionals is 55 per cent; for technicians 12 per cent and for artisans 53
per cent. Given the severity of shortage of skills, especially at the professional
Suppliers to the hotels or small businesses; and supervisory levels, it is not surprising that the quality of service is such a
Special events (cultural) need extra staff. major issue in Rwanda. But this also affects the competitiveness of the sector
in the region and may hinder future growth.
“Rwanda’s goal in the tourism sector is development of “high-end eco-

tourism.” This will depend critically on the quality of service the country offers. The conclusion from the skills audit is that “the growth and development of the
At the moment, the hospitality industry has a total gap of 69.4 per cent. In the country’s tourism product will depend on how effectively it develops the skills
technician cadres (supervisors, assistant chefs), the sector has only 4 per cent required by the country” (HIDA, 2008).
of skills required in position. This means that in this essential category there is
a 96 per cent deficit. For artisans (waiters, cleaners), there is only 30 per cent
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VI.1.2. Accommodation and Restauration Facilities
Based on an assessment of the ORTPN categorization of hotels into upper,

middle and lower ranges, discussions with the representatives of the hotel
sector and the project’s product inspection visits, only around 23 per cent (730
rooms) of the reported available rooms stock is considered to be of acceptable
international standard (export ready). The majority of these rooms are in Kigali
as can be seen from the table below.
Table 12: Hotel Bedroom Stock by Quality Range and Location.
Quality Range Kigali Outside Kigali Totals
Upper 413 193 606
Middle 319 671 990
Lower 374 1,180 1,554 In Kigali, just less than 50 per cent (500) of the rooms are suitable for
international tourists. By international standards, there are no five star hotels
Totals 1,106 2,044 3,150 in Kigali and, at the present time, only one four star hotel. A number of hotels
have good quality rooms but lack the services and food quality for three and
four star classification.
Source: ORTPN, 2009
Outside Kigali, there are only 193 rooms in the upper category and which
would be suitable for international tourists. If one adds to this a small number
from the middle range, there is a total of 230 rooms outside Kigali suitable for
international tourists.
Figure 10: Indicative Location and Volume of Tourist

Accommodation (next page).
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IV.1.3. MAIN TOURISM ATTRACTIONS AND THEIR LOCATION Figure 11 Cash is still King in Rwanda even for the tourists
The mountain gorillas are Rwanda’s

iconic tourism product and a very
significant revenue producer at US$500
per visit. Rwanda also has a vast range
of fauna, avifauna and flora with about
670 species of birds and over 100
species of orchids. Other attractions
though under promoted today include the
range of flora, lakes, valleys, mountains
and general scenery and indeed the
people. The temperate temperatures in
Rwanda could be a significant attraction
in an African setting for activity and other
leisure tourists.
Figure 12: Area and Nodes of National Interest for Tourism
(Next page)
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Rwanda has six volcanoes, twenty-three lakes and numerous rivers. The Table 13: Visiting Tourist Numbers and Revenue Generated in 2008
spectacular volcanoes and dense natural forests dominate the north of the
country while there are hills and valleys, lakes and rivers and savannah as Average
well as tropical vegetation in the rest of the country. PP
Revenue Spend
Volcanoes National Park is the most popular due to the presence of the Number US$m US$
Gorillas
Business/Conference 347,000 117 337
Nyungwe Forest National park contains one of the largest tracts of mountain VFR 247,000 18 73
forest in East or Central Africa. The most remote source of the Nile is on
Leisure Visitors 60,000 61 1,016
Mount Bigugu. The Park is rich in biodiversity with over a thousand plant
species, birds, butterflies and primates. There are a number of guided walks Transit and Other 326,000 14 42
and chimpanzee tracking available
Source: ORTPN, Tourism Master Plan, 2009
Akagera National park in the Eastern province has extensive wetlands, a
number of lakes fed by the Akagera river. In the savannah areas, wildlife Total visitor numbers in 2008 including Transit and Other were 980,000,
viewing is rewarded with many animals such as buffalo, zebra, giraffe, hippo spending US$210m.
and antelope, elephants, crocodiles. Etc.
VI.2.Growth Scenarios
Lakes Kivu, Muhazi and Ihema have some recreational facilities but have
much more untapped potential. Three possible growth options for tourism development are identified in
Rwanda.
Trekking, climbing and other activities are available in the parks and other
areas. For instance, in the Volcanoes Mountains, trekking ranging from a few Growth scenarios for Rwanda’s tourism are subject to four factors /
hours to several days is available assumptions:
Significant improvement in the business environment for investment;
Timely improvements of the roads, airport, hotel plant and other

proposed economic infrastructure projects;
Improved air access – frequency of service and connectivity; and
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Sustained and adequately funded destination and product marketing generate sufficient fee income from hikers/trekkers to maintain the trail
campaigns. network.
Three possibilities arise in considering future growth options for tourism in VI.2.2. Moderate Growth Option
Rwanda:
This can be understood as what is likely to happen if development continues
VI.2.1. Low Growth Option to focus primarily on nature tourism, soft adventure, conference and cultural
tourism, with some improvement in the enabling environment and sector
The Low Growth option is essentially a ‘do little’ option and is rejected on the management.
basis that it is a retrograde strategy in that it is likely to result in disinvestment
in the tourism sector, primarily through the failure/closure of accommodation Whereas the outcome of the low growth option is likely to be disinvestment
properties outside Kigali and deterioration of the product (trail network, and deterioration of the tourism industry, the thrust of the moderate growth
facilities and amenities). option is the improved operational viability of existing tourism enterprises and
promotion of new products.
This can be interpreted as to what would be likely to happen if no initiatives
are undertaken and tourism development continues to be constrained by the As continued focus on a primarily ‘nature and conference tourism product’
existing shortcomings in respect of lack of investment, non-conducive driven strategy will involve only small investment, it will not develop any
enabling environment, and poor access. Basically, things continue much as competitive advantage in the market. In this respect, it must be borne in the
they are today with no further improvement to the economic infrastructure, mind that other African destinations are not ‘standing still’ with regard to
continuation of the non-conducive investment climate, and no sustained investment in their respective tourism products.
destination marketing undertaken. Very little expansion of the tourism sector
occurs. The implications for Rwanda under this option are that leisure traveler arrivals
would grow from an estimated 21,500 in 2007 to 61,000 by 2020 with a
In terms of stay-over tourist arrivals, numbers are projected to increase projected expenditure of US$90m by 2020. This represents an annual growth
between 2.5 – 4 per cent annually - similar to the rate of growth recorded rate of 10 per cent for the leisure traveler segment, 2 per cent for the business
since year 2000. The profile of visitors is likely to remain unchanged with the segment, and, 1 per cent each for VFR and transit/other.
majority coming on business and visiting friends and relatives.
VI.2.3. High Growth Option
Indeed, because of the low growth in tourist arrivals, there is likely to be
disinvestment in the tourism sector, with a number of the properties currently This can be seen as the rate at which the tourism sector could expand if
experiencing low occupancies outside Kigali closing down. Apart from the sufficient public and private sector capital were attracted in developing the
gorilla product, the Parks most likely will deteriorate due to the failure to necessary supporting infrastructure, facilities and services, coupled with
significant improvements in the enabling environment and sector
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management, reflecting the growth targets as called for in the Tourism The realization of this high growth option will necessitate a significant public
Strategy and Vision 2020. and private sector investment driven strategy and much enhanced co-
ordination between the public and private sector and within the private sector.
The high growth option reflects the implementation of the Tourism Strategy
2007 and Vision 2020 where the service sector target for 2020 is to rise to The high growth scenario which Rwanda is targeting is as shown in the
42% of GDP from 36% in 2005 (exceeding both agriculture and industry). table below in terms of revenue and visiting tourists.
The High Growth option will contribute to expanding the economy. The Table 14: Growth Scenario Targeted by Rwanda
tourism sector will become a driver of economic development. Public sector
investment is kept to the minimum necessary while private sector investment Actual 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020
would be funded primarily from external sources. In addition to the 2008
improvements outlined under the Moderate Growth option:
Revenue 210 210 225 244 276.7 627
Up to 4,000 hotel rooms in Kigali and 4,000 rooms/units in the US$ m.
designated tourism areas; Number of 980,000 980,000 1,031,000 1,089,000 1,199,000 2,219,000
Arrivals
Significant new investment in tourism plant involving resort
developments at Musanze, Nyungwe, Akagera, and Muhazi; Source: Tourism Development master plan, 2009
Public/private partnerships key to mobilizing investment for the Total tourism expenditure is projected to increase from US$210m in 2008 to
tourism areas; and US$627m by 2020, representing an average growth rate of 20 per cent yearly.
New airport to accommodate long haul services. VI.3.Investment opportunities in the tourism sector
Under the High Growth option, the leisure tourism sector is projected to Tourist transport: The creation of a transport company using a seaplane shows
expand by an average of 20 per cent yearly: a real business opportunity. These engines could link Kigali to different tourist
sites: the Akagera National Park (Lake Ihema), Virunga National Park (Lake
Tourism to represent between 6.5 - 8 per cent of GDP by 2020; Kivu, Gisenyi) and Nyungwe Forest (Lake Kivu, Cyangugu). Besides its
practical aspects, this type of service stimulates the tourist’s imagination in
Foreign exchange earnings of US$627m by 2020; government thinking that he/she can visit Rwanda using air transport.
receipts from tourism generated VAT of US$90m in 2020; and new
job opportunities created in hotels, restaurants, guides, transportation
services, attractions.
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The use of engine-powered boats connecting Gisenyi to Cyangugu can By 2020 Rwanda’s intends to transform its predominantly agricultural
ensure the movement of tourists between Virunga National Park and economy into:
Nyungwe Forest, as well as serve as transport for business.
A high income economy dominated by the trading in ICT products and
Hotels and restaurants: There is much need for accommodation and services
restoration facilities in most of the tourist sites. In Nyanza for example, the
capital of the former Kingdom, could shelter a cultural village capable of An economy characterized by a large commercial service sector with a
attracting a consistent number of tourists. Emphasis should therefore, be put reasonably large and vibrant, ICT service sub- sector and industry
on the understanding of the traditional way of life of pre-colonial Rwanda.
An economy in which the majority of the working population are either directly
In Nyungwe forest, near Uwinka Centre, where primates and other animals or indirectly involved in information and communications related activities
cross, there is need to construct a hotel whose design would fit in well with the
forest environment and which could accommodate about thirty people. An economy in which a reasonable large proportion of the population has
access to information and communications technology products and services.
Leisure Infrastructure: In spite of its wealth, the forests and national parks are
usually out of reach for the average Rwandan. The creation of zoological and An economy in which the provision and delivery of goods and services of the
botanical gardens (almost inexistent in Rwanda) in the urban areas is an key sectors of the economy are to a large extent facilitated by information and
efficient way of solving this problem. The gardens can be set up in the communications technologies
country’s major towns: Kigali, Butare, Ruhengeri and Gisenyi. An economy in which the provision and delivery of services by government
There is an absolute lack of theme parks in Rwanda. A relatively small type of and its administrative machinery are to a large extent facilitated by information
park would serve as a centre for selected events such as trade fairs in Kigali and communications technologies
and different economic forums, at the same time operating as an area for A economy based on an advanced and reliable national information and
permanent commercial activities. communications infrastructure
VII. INFORMATION AND VII.1.Current status of ICT

COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY The Rwandan telecommunications sector has evolved over the past years,
expanding with the arrival of new service providers and shifting from
In the development path Rwanda has chosen to pursue, ICT has a pivotal government control to the private sector. However, no comprehensive up to
role. It crosscuts across all the six pillars of the vision 2020. date statistics are available on the status of ICT in Rwanda. The few statistics
presented here below are from the Rwanda SCAN ICT survey carried out in
2006.
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Community Centers are being

deployed in remote areas and
very supported by both
Government and International
Organizations.
RITA is currently setting up a
tele-center in each District.
40 Broadband VSATs are
operational in Rwanda. The
Table 15: Telecommunication Services and Providers major owners are
International Organizations,
Telecommunications Provider ISP’s and Higher Educational
service Institutions.
Rwandatel VSAT The license fee is USD 5525

Fixed Lines per year plus 15% of the
New Artel monthly satellite segment fee
MTN Around 250 Narrowband
Mobile Telephone Rwandatel VSATs have been deployed
by New Artel communication
TIGO company in the country side
MTN
Source: SCAN ICT survey, 2006
Rwandatel
TIGO In the Education and Health sectors, the private sector is found to have better
Internet Services access toand use of computers.
New ARTEL
ALTECH Figure 13: Availability of Computers in Schools
ISPA
800 Cyber cafes are
Cyber Cafes and estimated to be operational in
Community Centers the Country with 65% in the
Capital Kigali.
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On average, the UN system followed by NGO’s have a higher level of

Source: SCAN ICT survey, 2006
computer usage by staff. The private sector also has higher usage then the
At primary school level, only about 17% of the teachers are computer literate public sector.
compared to 24% in secondary schools, 31% in secondary technical schools,
100% in TTC’s and 56% in technical commercial and vocational institutions.
Access to internet is higher in private schools (51%) compared to 31% of the

public schools.
In the health sector, all health institutions surveyed have computers, though
private health institutions have more access to the internet (42%) compared to
public health institutions (24%). Only 9.1% of all institutions have a website
and they are all in the public sector.
However, the percentage of health institutions staff using computers for

medical purposes is very low (less than 10%).
For internet usage, the UN and other NGO’s still score high. The public sector
though has more access to internet than private sector workers.
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VII.2.Development opportunities VIII.Employment in Rwanda

Despite a high level political commitment to take ICT development forward as A growing economy must create jobs for its people. On the other hand,
a priority area, the current trend in the sector’s development reveals several human capital is crucial for the growth of the economy. Yet again, in a country
gaps that need to be addressed if the country expects major returns within the like Rwanda, increase in productive employment is the main transmission
coming 20 years. Those gaps are related to the issues of access to and mechanism linking economic growth to reduced poverty. How has the
affordability of ICT services in addition to weak institutional capacity and registered economic growth led to growth in employment especially for the low
institution arrangement. income and poor Rwandese? Does Rwanda have the required skills and
human resources to achieve its development ambitions? These are two major
The Government has consequently formulated an ICT – 2020 policy guided by
questions that make the labour market today and its evolution a critical factor
the principle that if Rwanda is to take full advantage of the opportunities of the
to the Rwandan economy and its future.
information age and develop a vibrant multi-sectorial information and
knowledge economy, it should not as a nation be just a consumer of ICT
goods and services but also a producer and developer of the technology.
The GOR believes that development of a local ICT production industry and
service sector is as equally important as the deployment, exploitation and
utilization of the technology to support the activities of various sectors of the
economy and society.
The Rwanda ICT Policy over a period of twenty years - 2020 is implemented Table 16: Status of the Labour Market.
through four 5 Year NICI Plans with the 1st, 2nd and 3rd NICI Plans laying
emphasis on the exploitation and utilization of ICT products and services to Economically Active Population (above 83.10%
support the delivery of government services and the activities of various 15)
sectors of the economy and the 4th NICI Plan laying emphasis on the
production, development and delivery of ICT products and services. Employed 60,8
The implementation of this plan, to close the gap will not be done by Unemployed 1.20%
government. It therefore points to a number of investment opportunities for the
private sector to seize. Students 32%
Inactive 6%
3/29/2010
Percentage of the employed in the 79% the rural population is employed in the agricultural sector and 89.3% of those
agricultural, fishing and forestry sector employed in the agricultural sector never attended school.
Percentage of the employed in the trade 6.80%

sector
Percentage of the employed in the public 3.20%

sector
Rural population in the agricultural sector 86.50%
Percentage employed in agriculture who 11.70%

went to school
Source: NISR, Household conditions of living survey II (2005/2006)
2005/06 statistics on the status of the labor market reveal the economically
active population (above age 15) in Rwanda was 83.1%. 60.8% (4,377,000
people) of these were employed, 1.2% were unemployed, 32% were students,
while 6% were inactive (NISR, 2006).
Recent trends in the Rwandan labor market show that 600,000 new jobs were
created between 2000/01 and 2005/06. 200,000 new jobs were created in
non-farm paid employment out of a total of 480,000 such jobs. However, the
unemployment rate during this period increased by 0.2% pointing to the fact Table 17: Employment Rates by Sector (%)
that the number of jobs created was not proportionate to the growth of the
working population.
The EDPRS projects that 1,000,000 new jobs will be created over 2008 –
2012, of which 600,000 should be non - farm jobs.
Statistics from the second household living conditions yet reveal that 79% of
the employed work in the agricultural, fishing and forestry sectors. 6.8% work
in the trade sector while 3.2% work in the public sector. Yet again, 86.5% of
3/29/2010
Those employed in the agriculture sector, are mainly in the informal sector
and are illiterate. Infact, this reported employment rate includes many
underemployed or even idle people in the rural area who report to be farmers.
This explains the low incomes and poverty levels that characterize agricultural
households.
The labor force is largely in the informal sector
A significant number of the economically active is in school, portraying the

young Rwandan population, coming to the labor market in the near future.
Regarding the level of unemployment (1.2%), the available data solely reflect
declarations of workers dwelling in urban areas who have lost their jobs.
These data don’t seem to reflect the total number of valid adults who are
unwillingly jobless such as workers living in the rural area and the youth in
quest of their first job.
From the point of view of labor demand, it is much easier for workers with low
rather than high skills to find employment. The fact is that with reference to
data provided by the recent general census of the Rwandan population
(2002), one observes a tendency where jobless people who have gone
through secondary or higher education represent a higher proportion in the
population of their category than that of uneducated people and those who
have only attended primary school in their respective categories.
The above employment rate inhibits other crucial realities. Only 6.2% (271,000
people) of the employed are in the formal sector while the remaining 93.8% SKILLS GAP IN THE RWANDAN ECONOMY
(4,106,000) are in the informal sector. Of those doing farm jobs (79.5%),
99.1% of them are in the informal sector, whereas of those doing off farm jobs Meeting Rwanda’s development ambitions is critically dependent on the
(21.5%), 73.4% are also in the informal sector. availability of the right human resources. A skills audit undertaken in 2009
revealed that Rwanda has an acute shortage of human capital. Major findings
In addition, these statistics reveal a number of facts about the Rwandan of the skills audit:
economy and its labor force.
3/29/2010
Rwanda only has a 40% human skills deficit in the short term. The private
sector has the highest human capital deficit, 60% of short term need while it is
estimated at 30% for the public sector and 5% for the civil society.
The skills deficit is more acute at the technician level (60%)
Rwandan human capital is concentrated in a few occupations. Education

alone accounts for 60% of total skilled work force followed by agriculture with
15%.
Three quarters (75.9%) of the total skilled work force are artisan cadres, only
7.7% are technicians, 14.2% are at the professional level, while 2.2% are at
the managerial level.
This picture cuts across all sectors of the economy. However, the audit points
to an insignificant base of both professional and technical skills in building and
construction; and very few high level skills in agriculture/animal health and Source: Skills audit, HIDA (2009)
husbandry and agro-industry fields. The hospitality field is very weak at the
technical framework. Foreign experts account for 4.3 percent of Rwanda’s skilled workforce.
However, the vast majority, 75 percent of all foreign experts are in education.
Figure 14: Rwanda's Skill Base by Occupation % Chart Foreign expertise predominates in the public sector- where they account for
5% of the skilled workforce and 10.8% of the professionals.
NISR (2009) reports that Rwanda is a net Importer of services as shown over
the three years below: 2006: 27%, 2007: 8%, 2008: 10%.
3/29/2010
IX. RWANDA’S ECONOMIC Coming to the composition of the sectors of the economy, they also show little
diversification. The agricultural sector is itself almost entirely composed of
DIVERSIFICATION AND LABOR MARKET food crops (85%). The industrial sector is concentrated in manufacturing
(40%) and construction (53%), both taking up 93% of the total sector. Only the
CONNECTIONS services sector exhibits some diversification among its components.
Economic diversification is crucial for sustaining economic growth. Every The consequence of low diversification or high economic concentration to the
nation aspires for a strong and growing economy, but these achievements Rwandan economy is that it leads to volatile growth and fluctuating economic
have to be sustainable. cycles. The same concentration in a particular sector like agriculture, leads to
underemployment. Economic volatility also may lead to structural
Rwanda’s economy as shown by its macroeconomic indicators is not unemployment issues and systemic risks.
diversified.
In order to increase the level of employment, all development initiatives need
Labor distribution across sectors does not reflect the share contributions to to ensure that investments create the jobs required to absorb the forthcoming
GDP. Agriculture employs close to 79% of the total labor force (EICV II) but expansion of the labour force. The development of an Employment Strategy
contributes only 33% of GDP. will complement the Growth flagship once the comprehensive analysis of the
Rwandan labour market is completed. Finally, stronger growth and
Rwanda’s export earnings have been almost entirely from agriculture (mainly employment in key identified sectors of agriculture (i.e., coffee, tea,
coffee and tea) and lately the tourism sector. Volatility of prices of coffee and horticulture), manufacturing (i.e., mining, food and beverage processing,
tea on the international markets have had adverse impact on export earnings construction), and services (i.e., tourism, transport and logistics, other
and hence the performance of the entire economy. Rwanda in its current financial and non-financial services) are crucial for ensuring sustainable
EDPRS acknowledges that increased diversification of commodity exports, economic growth.
and increased numbers of high-value commodity exports, are needed to
generate employment and meet Rwanda’s targets for poverty reduction
Again, as shown by the trend of economic growth, the economy registered

sharp variations in 2003 due to poor performance in the agricultural sector.
This again points to the high sensitivity of the economy on the agricultural
sector. A shock in oil prices and prices in international markets in 2007 also
led to a sharp drop in economic growth, yet pointing to an economy highly
dependent on the external world. Rwanda indeed highly depends on import of
most of its commodity goods, thus being highly sensitive to shocks on the
external market.
3/29/2010
society that is private sector led. All this is to be achieved in a politically and
X.ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT economically well governed nation.
POLICIES Experiences from other transition countries show that the first stage of
transition should aim at creating stable macro economic conditions. Indeed
Rwanda’s vision 2020 spells out long term development ambitions based Rwanda has achieved big in stabilizing its economy over the last five years.
around the pillars of good governance, agricultural transformation, private
sector development, human resource development, infrastructural This structural shift is in recognition Rwanda’s comparative advantage and
improvements, regional and international economic integration, and the cross- concentrating strategies towards it. There is a plentiful supply of cheap labour,
cutting issues of gender equality, environmental protection and ICT a large multi-lingual population, a strategic location as the gateway between
development. The overriding objective in the Vision is for Rwanda to achieve East and Central Africa as well as its small size, making it easy to build
middle income status and to halve poverty by 2020 – an ambition that requires infrastructure. The industries established would need to address basic needs,
GDP per capita have to reach $900 in 2020 from $220 in 2000. for which there is a readily available market, as these products can satisfy
local demand and even move towards export. Taking stock of the above
In this pursuit to achieve its long term development goals, Rwanda also strengths, and acknowledging that Rwanda has limited resources and is
formulated medium term poverty reduction strategies. The first PRSP was landlocked, it becomes only sensible that the services sector should be in the
formulated in 2002 to cover the period to 2005. Formulated in a post conflict medium to long run the most important engine of Rwanda’s economy.
context, is focused on issues of reconstruction with priority areas of rural
development and agricultural transformation, human development, economic The private sector
infrastructure, good governance, private sector development and institutional
capacity. Rwanda’s vision is to be achieved through a private sector led growth. Pillar
number four of the vision 2020 calls for “a private sector led economy based
A second PRSP, dubbed the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction on a growing class of entrepreneurs with a competitive and creative culture”.
Strategy (EDPRS) was formulated for the period 2008 – 2012 and focuses Public investments are expected to decrease to 8% of total GDP in 2020,
more on achieving sustainable economic growth and social development, while private investments will have reached 20% of GDP. However, currently
which should ultimately translate into an improved quality of life for all the private sector is still weak and rather looks towards the government for
Rwandans as envisaged in the vision 2020. strengthening.
Rwanda’s development ambition is to be achieved through a structural Table 18: Rwanda-towards 2020 (next page)
transformation from a subsistence agriculture economy to a knowledge-based
3/29/2010
2010 2015 2020 Figure 9: Sectoral contribution to GDP (%)

100%
Population (Million) 9.88 11.29 12.9
Population growth rate 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
90%
Nominal GDP (Billion) 2,147 3,957 7,291
GDP Growth Rate 8% 9% 9% 80%
GDP per Capita (Rwf) 217,369 350,540 565,298
GDP per Capita (USD) 336.48 542.63 875.08 70%
Agriculture(billion) 923.58 1,582.91 2,376.88

60%
Agriculture (%of GDP) 43% 40% 33%
Services (Billion) 795 1,504 3,048 50%
Services (% of GDP) 37% 38% 42%
40%
Source: GOR: Vision 2020

30%
Industry (Billion) 430 871 1,867
Industry (% of GDP) 20% 22% 26% 20%
Gross Domestic Investment
(GDI) 614.29 1,131.78 2,085.24 10%
Public 163.26 314.35 605.25
Private 451.02 817.44 1,479.99 0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Gross Domestic
Investment (GDI) % of agriculture industrie services
GDP) 29% 29% 29%
Public 8% 8% 8%
Private 21% 21% 20%
Total Capital Expenditure 163.26 314.35 605.25
3/29/2010
XI. Scenarios 2020 allocation translates, in real terms, as 15 percent annual growth in agricultural
spending.
The objectives of Rwanda’s Vision 2020 is to achieve 8 per cent annual Minor improvement in operational viability of existing tourism enterprises and
growth target which is currently exceeded with an 8.3 per cent rate of promotion of new products.
economic growth during 2000 - 2008. On the last five years 2005 – 2008, the
average growth rate has been even higher: 8.8%. Progressive but small improvement of Labor productivity in all sectors of the
economy
The scenarios presented here under are based on estimation of the
Beckerman model. This model is built on the following basic assumptions: Minor increase in production of construction materials coupled with low
investment in mortgages, real estate and property.
Table 19: Growth Rate
Slight increase in electricity generation and energy diversification
Growth rates %
Average annual share of Government development expenditure (Gross capital
International real commerce 4.5% Formation) as percentage of GDP of 6.42%
International hydrocarbons prices 2.3%
Average annual growth rate of the labor force of 2%
Population 2.2%
Annual (average) growth rate of labor productivity:
The reliability of this model is based on the fact that its results are close to the
achieved results in the past years and in line with the targets of vision 2020 Primary sector: 1.8%
and MDG’s.
Secondary sector: 5.0%
LOW GROWTH SCENARIO:
Tertiary sector: 0.8%
In addition to the above assumptions which are constant over the study
period, the following are other variable assumptions that make up the low Thus, under that scenario, the annual average GDP growth is likely to be
growth scenario: estimated at 7.6% for the period from 2010 up to 2020.
Meeting the CAADP six percent agricultural growth target will require a MEDIUM GROWTH SCENARIO:
progressive improvement of agricultural methods and techniques and the
In addition to the Low Growth scenario assumptions, the following
allocation of public resources to the agricultural sector to rise by 10% of total
assumptions have been added:
spending by 2015, depending on efficiency in spending. This level of
3/29/2010
Progressive improvement in crop intensification and specialization following In addition to the Medium Growth scenario assumptions, the following
the agricultural output/yield of agricultural zones or areas assumptions have been added:
Progressive improvement of agricultural methods and techniques coupled with Significant sustained improvement of agricultural methods and
better land protection. techniques and the allocation of public resources to the agricultural
sector to rise by 15% of total spending, depending on efficiency in
Improved operational viability of existing tourism enterprises and promotion of spending. This level of allocation translates, in real terms, as 30
new products coupled with improvements of the roads, airport, hotel plant and percent annual growth in agricultural spending;
other proposed economic infrastructure projects by the tourism master plan.
Use of improved seeds by more than 60% in each agricultural
Significant increase in production of construction materials coupled with season, Agriculture prices continuing to be at a high level,
significant investment in mortgages, real estate and property. Continuous improvement of the storage system coupled with
Significant improvement in meeting the energy challenges and needs of the Extension of agricultural product export market .
Rwandan economy for sustainable national development
High level of private investments funded primarily from external sources and
Average annual share of Government development expenditure (Gross capital results in:
Formation) as percentage of GDP of 6.52%
up to 4,000 hotel rooms in Kigali and 4,000 rooms/units in the
Average annual growth rate of the labor force of 2.4% designated tourism areas;
Annual ( average) growth rate of labor productivity: significant new investment in tourism plant involving resort
developments at Musanze, Nyungwe, Akagera, and Mahazi;
Primary sector: 2.0%
public/private partnerships key to mobilizing investment for the
Secondary sector: 6.1% tourism areas; and
Tertiary sector: 0.9% new airport to accommodate long haul services.
Thus, under that scenario, the annual average GDP growth is likely to be
estimated at 8.5% for the period from 2010 up to 2020. High levels of production of construction materials, significant investment in
mortgages, real estate and property coupled with Extension of construction
HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO: materials product export market
3/29/2010
Average annual share of Government development expenditure (Gross capital prices

Formation) as percentage of GDP of 7.57% Population 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
Average annual growth rate of the labor force of 2.7% Per cent of GDP (RwFr):
Government
Annual (average) growth rate of labor productivity: development
expenditure
7.57% 6.52% 6.42%
(Gross fixed
capital
Primary sector: 2.3%
formation)
Secondary sector: 7.8% Primary sector 8.63% 7.64% 6.49%
Tertiary sector: 1.5% Food crops 7.29% 6.46% 5.74%

Export crops 17.39% 16.88% 14.88%
Hence, under that scenario, the annual average growth is likely to be
estimated at 9.6% for the period from 2010 up to 2020. Livestock 9.08% 8.04% 7.14%
Secondary sector 10.65% 9.42% 8.36%
Table 20: Average GDP Growth Rates by Scenario.
Mining 11.77% 10.41% 9.24%
RWANDA: MACROECONOMIC PROJECTION (Average for scenarios 2010-2020) Electricity and Water 16.39% 14.46% 12.80%
High Manufacturing 11.77% 10.41% 9.24%
Medium Low
Growth
Growth Growth Construction and public
scenari 7.04% 6.98% 5.98%
scenario scenario works
o
Tertiary sector 9.83% 8.73% 7.73%
Main
Growth rates: Commerce and tourism 11.69% 9.56% 8.56%
assumptions
GDP at 2006 Transport and
9.6% 8.5% 7.6% 9.30% 9.00% 8.00%
prices communications
International Other services 8.59% 8.13% 7.81%

4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
real commerce Growth rate of the labor force 2.7% 2.4% 2.0%
Growth rate of labor

International 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
hydrocarbons
3/29/2010
productivity
Primary sector 2.3% 2.0% 1.8%
Secondary sector 7.8% 6.1% 5.0%
Tertiary sector 1.5% 0.9% 0.8%
LACK OF DATA
In this chapter, we have endeavored to highlight the current status of the

The figure below provides projected yearly GDP growth rates for all the three Rwandan economy, the development perspectives in place and the hurdles
scenarios over the period 2010 – 2020. along the way to the year 2020. The presentation and analysis herein is
however dependent on the available data on the Rwandan economy. It is
Figure 15: Growth Scenarios: 2010-2020 worth noting that the lack of detailed data on some sectors could not allow
more detailed analysis and comparability. It is hereby recommended that
various economic sectors produce detailed and consistent data that will
Growth Scenarios: 2010 - 2020 holdin coming up with thorough analysis on various economic aspects.
12.00%
10.00%
GDP growth rates
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
High-growth scenario (%) 8.00 8.40 8.80 9.00 9.30 9.50 9.80 10.00 10.30 10.50 10.80
Medium-growth scenario (%) 7.30 7.50 7.80 8.00 8.30 8.50 8.80 9.00 9.30 9.50 9.80
Low-growth scenario (%) 6.60 6.70 6.80 7.00 7.30 7.50 7.80 8.00 8.30 8.50 8.80
3/29/2010
ISAR (2007) Sustainable Agriculture Productivity for improved food security

and livelihoods. Proceedings of National Conference on Agriculture Research
REFERENCE Outputs. 26th-27th March 2007, Serena Hotel, Kigali, Rwanda
Michael E. Porter, 2007: Creating a Competitive Rwanda, Harvard Business

Bibliography School
BNR, Annual Reports: 2006 – 2009, Kigali – Rwanda. MINECOFIN (2009). 2008 Annual Report. Ministry of Finance and Economic
BNR, 2009: An overview of the Financial Sector and Financing Opportunities Planning (MINECOFIN), Kigali.
for Property Development, National Bank of Rwanda, Presentation by the MINAGRI (2008). 2007 Annual Report. Ministry of Agriculture and Animal
Governor, May 2009. Resources (MINAGRI), Kigali.
CAADP (2003), Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme, MINECOFIN (2007a). Budget Framework Paper 2008-2010. Septembre 2007.
New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD, Modland, South Africa). Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN), Kigali.
Care International inc (2005) Rwanda Electricity and Water tariff Analysis, MINECOFIN, 2007b: Rwanda Financial Sector Development Program, Kigali
USAID. Available at – Rwanda
http://globalregulatorynetwork.org/Files/PDFs/RwandaTariffReport.pdf
MININFRA (2008a). Biomass Strategic Workshop, 30th April 2008. Ministry of
Electrogaz (2009). Electrogaz 2007-2008 Annual reports., Electrogaz, Kigali Infrastructure (MININFRA), Kigali
FINSCOPE Rwanda, 2008 MININFRA (2008b). Energy Sector Strrategy, August 2008. Ministry of
Infrastructure (MININFRA), Kigali
HIDA – MSCBP, Ministry of Public Service and Labor, 2009: National Skills
Audit, Kigali - Rwanda. MININFRA (2009a). Electricity, MININFRA website. Ministry of Infrastructure
(MININFRA), Kigali. Also available on: http://minfra.gov.rw
IFPRI (2007a), Agricultural growth and Investment options for Poverty
Reduction in Rwanda. IFPRI Discussion Paper MININFRA (2009b). Hydrocarbons. MININFRA website. Ministry of
Infrastructure (MININFRA), Kigali. Also available on: http://minfra.gov.rw
IFRP (2007b) International Food Policy Research Institute entitled ‘The Role
of Agriculture in Development, Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa MININFRA (2009c). Report on baseline surveys & Training of SIMS managers
and users, December 20090),
3/29/2010
NISR, 2009, National Accounts 1999-2008; Annual estimates based on 2006 UNDP (2007): Tuning Vision 2020 into Reality: From Recovery to Sustainable
benchmark, Human Development. National Human Development Report, Rwanda 2007.
United Nations Development Programme UNDP, Kigali.
NISR (2009a), Rwanda National Accounts 1999-2008; Annual estimates
based on 2006 benchmark: released October 2009.
LIST OF TABLES
NISR (2009b), Enquete Nationale Agricole 2008, Kigali. TABLE 1: MAJOR RWANDAN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS .................................. 5
TABLE 2: RWANDAN MONETARY, FISCAL AND EXTERNAL TRADE INDICATORS ....... 7
NISR (2006). The Rwandan Industrial and Mining Survey (RIMS). 2005
TABLE 4: STRUCTURE OF THE DOMINANT BANKING SECTOR ................................. 8
Survey Report and Major Findings. Final Report. Kigali.
TABLE 5: ANNUAL AGRICULTURAL CROP PRODUCTION (IN TONS)........................ 13
NISR, Household conditions of living survey II (2005/2006). Also available at: TABLE 6: DISTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURAL LAND (%) BY DISTRICT .................... 17
http://www.statistics.gov.rw TABLE 7: PROPORTION OF AGRICULTURAL LAND BY DISTRICT . .......................... 19
TABLE 8: FISH PRODUCTION AND INCOME BY PROVINCE AND DISTRICT .............. 20
NISR, NUR, KIST, 2008: SCANICT Baseline Survey Report, ICT Indicators, TABLE 9: RAW MATERIALS SUITABLE FOR BUILDING MATERIAL INDUSTRY .......... 20
Kigali – Rwanda TABLE 10: CURRENT ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY................................ 20
TABLE 11: SITES FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY ............................ 20
OGMR-RIEPA, Potential Dimension Stones Industry in Rwanda, Kigali- TABLE 12: MAJOR MINERAL EXPORTS ................................................................ 20
Rwanda TABLE 13: HOTEL BEDROOM STOCK BY QUALITY RANGE AND LOCATION............ 20
TABLE 14: VISITING TOURIST NUMBERS AND REVENUE GENERATED IN 2008...... 20
PSF (2009). Joint Sector Review 2008. Private Sector Federation (PSF), TABLE 15: GROWTH SCENARIO TARGETED BY RWANDA ..................................... 20
Kigali. TABLE 16: TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES AND PROVIDERS ............................. 20
TABLE 17: STATUS OF THE LABOUR MARKET...................................................... 20
REMA (2009). Rwanda State of Environment for Economic Development,
TABLE 18: EMPLOYMENT RATES BY SECTOR (%) ............................................... 20
Kigali
TABLE 19: RWANDA-TOWARDS 2020 ................................................................. 20
ROR (2000) Vision 2020. Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, TABLE 20: GROWTH RATE .................................................................................. 20
Republic of Rwanda (ROR), Kigali. TABLE 21: AVERAGE GDP GROWTH RATES BY SCENARIO.................................. 20
ROR (2004). Strategic Plan for the Transformation of Agriculture in Rwanda

(PSTA I). Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources, Republic of Rwanda
(ROR), Kigali.
ROR (2007) Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy, 2008-

2012. Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINECOFIN), Kigali.
3/29/2010
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: ECONOMIC GROWTH TRENDS COMPARED ........................................................ 5
FIGURE 2: INFLATION TRENDS COMPARED ........................................................................ 6
FIGURE 3: MONETARY INDICATORS................................................................................... 7
FIGURE 4:TRADING CENTRES 2010 (NEXT PAGE) ............................................................ 20
FIGURE 5: RAW MATERIALS SUITABLE FOR BUILDING INDUSTRY IN RWANDA 2010 (NEXT
PAGE) ................................................................................................................ 20
FIGURE 6: POWER LINES AND TRANSFORMERS (NEXT PAGE) ........................................... 20
FIGURE 7: SITES FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY (NEXT PAGE) ...................... 20
FIGURE 8: AREAS AND NODES OF NATIONAL INTEREST FOR ENERGY PRODUCTION (NEXT
PAGE) ................................................................................................................ 20
FIGURE 9: MAP OF MINERAL SITES IN RWANDA (NEXT PAGE) ........................................... 20
FIGURE 10: INDICATIVE LOCATION AND VOLUME OF TOURIST ACCOMMODATION (NEXT PAGE).
.......................................................................................................................... 20
FIGURE 11 CASH IS STILL KING IN RWANDA EVEN FOR THE TOURISTS .............................. 20
FIGURE 12: AREA AND NODES OF NATIONAL INTEREST FOR TOURISM .............................. 20
FIGURE 13: AVAILABILITY OF COMPUTERS IN SCHOOLS ................................................... 20
FIGURE 14: RWANDA'S SKILL BASE BY OCCUPATION % CHART ........................................ 20
FIGURE 15: GROWTH SCENARIOS: 2010-2020 ............................................................... 20
3/29/2010

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R W A N D A N A T I O N A L L A N D U S E D E V E L O P M E N T M A S T E R P L A N - E C O N O M Y A N D L A B O U R M A R K E T

II.6. FUTURE PERSPECTIVES FOR THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR ------------------------------ 20

WIND ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 20 REFERENCE-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20

IX. RWANDA’S ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION AND LABOR MARKET

X. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICIES----------------------------------------------- 20

INTRODUCTION I. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

The Rwandan government attributes the economic performance and

I.1.3. Rwanda’s financial sector

1 BK Commercial 1966 100% Gvt 9

16% Private To organize and modernize the national payment system.

To turn around such a situation, Rwanda set up a Financial Sector Development

To enhance access and affordability of financial services;

To enhance savings mobilization;

To develop appropriate policy, legal and regulatory framework for non-bank

Skills development Î Neighborhood

initiatives by the Rwandan Government in planning and using swamps, in providing

II.1.2. Agriculture production in Rwanda

Table 4: Annual Agricultural Crop Production (in tons)

banana banana banana fruit

617 15 27 518 18 732 1 170 335 48 84 23 88 78 122 1 948

Source: National Agriculture Survey, 2008

II.1.2.1.FOOD CROPS II.2. Proportion of households drawing profit from

II.4. Use of natural resources in the agricultural sector

II.4.1.Use of plots for farming purposes (arable land, urban space)

Table 5: Distribution of Agricultural Land (%) by District and Its Use.

Nyarugenge 83.1% 0.40% 0.20% 8.40% 0.00% 7.80% 0.00% 100%

Sub-total 71.30% 5.60% 1.50% 6.90% 4.00% 10.10% 0.70% 100%

Source: NISR (2009b)

II.4.2.Use of water for agricultural purposes

Table 6: Proportion of Agricultural Land by District According to the Main Method of

Nyarugenge 5 581 99.50% 6 0.10% 23 0.40% 0 0.00% 5 609 100%

Karongi 62 225 99.60% 0 0.00% 36 0.10% 185 0.30% 62 446 100%

Source: ENA 2008

Figure 4:Trading Centres 2010 (next page)

Quantity Quantity Annual

Nyarugenge 0 51 688 51 688

Though a significant number of estates were developed by especially government

Raw Present Possible Possible

Limestone CIMERWA Cement Mashyuza Rusizi Rusizi Aggregate

Filler Sebeya Rutsiro Ceramics

IV. ENERGY BIOMASS

Biomass is used in the form of firewood, charcoal or agricultural residues mainly

Figure 6: Power Lines and Transformers (next page)

DIVERSIFICATION OF ENERGY SOURCES AND SUPPLY IV.2.Development Opportunities

Hydropower (in MW)

V. MINING V.2. Development opportunities

A tourism master plan developed in 2009 reported:

168 tourism accommodation units with 3150 rooms – 25% suitable

Existing accommodation units provide direct employment to around

“Rwanda’s goal in the tourism sector is development of “high-end eco-

VI.1.2. Accommodation and Restauration Facilities

Based on an assessment of the ORTPN categorization of hotels into upper,

Table 12: Hotel Bedroom Stock by Quality Range and Location.

Quality Range Kigali Outside Kigali Totals

Upper 413 193 606

Middle 319 671 990

Figure 10: Indicative Location and Volume of Tourist

The mountain gorillas are Rwanda’s

Figure 12: Area and Nodes of National Interest for Tourism