Conclusion+Deck-+Makings+of+a+MultiBagger Compressed+ PDF

The Makings of a Multibagger
An Analysis of the Best Performing Stocks over the Past 5 Years
The Alta Fox 2020 Summer Intern Class Project:

Owen Stimpson - ostimpson.hba2021@ivey.ca
Max Schieferdecker - max.schieferdecker@wustl.edu
Elizabeth DeSouza - emd2201@columbia.edu
Disclaimer
Alta Fox Capital Management, LLC (“Alta Fox”) is an investment adviser to funds that are in the business of buying and selling securities and other financial
instruments. The Makings of a Multibagger (“report”) is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or
solicitation to buy or sell an interest in a private fund or any other security. An offer or solicitation of an investment in a private fund will only be made to
accredited investors pursuant to a private placement memorandum and associated documents. The information and opinions expressed in this report are
based on publicly available information. The report includes forward-looking statements, estimates, projections, and opinions on various securities, as well
as more general conclusions about future operating performance. Such statements, estimates, projections, opinions, and conclusions may prove to be
substantially inaccurate and are inherently subject to significant risks and uncertainties beyond Alta Fox’s control. Although Alta Fox believes the report is
substantially accurate in all material respects, Alta Fox makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of this
report or any other written or oral communication it makes with respect to any company in this report, and Alta Fox expressly disclaims any liability
relating to the report or such communications (or any inaccuracies or omissions therein). Thus, shareholders and others should conduct their own
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hereof, and Alta Fox undertakes no obligation to correct, update, or revise the report or to otherwise provide any additional materials. Furthermore, the
report was created by interns who are not full-time employees of Alta Fox. It is possible their views are not consistent with the views and beliefs of Alta
Fox Capital Management, LLC. Alta Fox also undertakes no commitment to take or refrain from taking any action with respect to any company listed in the
report. Additional information about Alta Fox can be found on its website, www. altafoxcapital.com, the use of which is subject to a User Agreement,
which can be found at www. altafoxcapital.com/disclaimer.
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Table of Contents
Section Page Numbers Sub-Section Page Numbers
• Project Overview 4 0
• Our Approach 5-6 0
o Criteria for Company Selection 5
o Our Process 6
• Overview of Companies Analyzed 7-9
o Industry Representation 7
o Geographic Representation 8
o Stock Exchange Representation 9
• Company Metrics 10 - 11
o Size of the Companies 10
o Financial Metrics 11
• What Led to their Outperformance 12 - 17
o TSR Drivers 13
o EBITDA and Revenue Growth 14 - 16
o Valuation Multiples 17
• Concluding Thoughts 18 – 19
o High-Level Takeaways 18
o Specific Takeaways 19
• Individual Company Analysis 20 - 645
o Table of Contents 20 – 21
o Analysis 22 - 645
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Project Overview
• Analyzed the highest performing stocks over the last five years and identified their common characteristics, trends, and
What We Did catalysts
Why We Did It • To identify strategies to find the next set of high performing stocks
• Researched the business of each company individually using a standardized 6-page slide deck format
How We Did It
• Compiled quantitative and qualitative data from all companies, analyzed it, and then drew conclusions based on it
What We
• Drew 5 high-level takeaways and a framework to screen for future multibaggers
Concluded
4
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Criteria for Selection
We used Bloomberg to screen for stocks that met the following criteria:
1. Only stocks domiciled in North America, Western Europe , and Australia.
2. All sectors excluding energy, materials, and financials.
104
3. Total Shareholder Return (TSR) from 6/8/2015 to 6/8/2020 greater that
350%.
4. Positive trailing 12-month EBITDA.
5. Market Cap at 6/8/2020 was greater than 150M USD and less than 10B USD. We analyzed the 104 smallest
stocks (market cap below 10B) of
6. Average daily value traded over 200,000 USD. the 130 returned from the screen
because of our small and micro-
7. The latest fiscal year y/y revenue growth was positive. cap focus.
8. The stock is actively being traded and it is the primary security of the given
company.
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Our Process
For each stock we did the following:
Business and Industry

Why the stock was Takeaways
Overview
overlooked five years
• Stock price, market cap, enterprise value, and
shares outstanding today and five years ago
ago
Financial
Snapshot • NTM revenue, EBITDA, and earnings
multiples five years ago and today
We surmised a bear case and/or
• The company’s product or service why the company was overlooked For each company we
Company determined what the key
• The “essence of the business” five years ago – i.e. minimal room
Overview takeaways were and our
• Sales breakdown by segment and geography for growth, poor competitive
position, high valuation, lack of thoughts on the stock’s future.
• Industry in which the company competes coverage, etc. – and outlined why
• Industry structure it turned out be wrong.
• Low-single digits (LSD), mid-single
Industry digits (MSD), high-single digits (HSD),
We also calculated what drove
Overview or > 10% industry growth rate
TSR: EBITDA growth, dividends,
• Barriers to entry and competitive advantages
and/or multiple expansion.
• How the industry has evolved over the last
five years
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Industry Representation Over-Represented

Under-Represented
We looked at companies in six broad industries based on Bloomberg’s BICS industry classifications: Consumer Discretionary, Consumer
Staples, Healthcare, Technology, Communications, and Industrials. Our search excluded companies in Energy, FIG, and Materials.
Industry Breakdown Relative to Investable Universe1

Consumer Staples and Unsurprisingly, Tech was the most % of IU % of Set
Communications tended to not common industry. Common traits
such as high margins, high Technology 17.57% 33.65%
outperform as often.
4% operating leverage, and scalable Healthcare 13.96% 23.08%
5% business models enabled this high
frequency. Consumer Discretionary 26.54% 21.15%
A range of industrial companies
outperformed. 13% Industrials 21.54% 13.46%
34%
Technology Consumer Staples 9.43% 4.81%
Healthcare
Communications 7.17% 3.85%
Consumer Discretionary
Industrials The consumer industry2 is under-represented
21% Consumer Staples with 25.96% of the set while making up 35.97%
of the total universe.
Communications
A decent amount of Consumer
23% The technology and healthcare industries are
Discretionary companies did as a result of both notably over-represented.
being innovative and high quality within Healthcare companies were common,
their field. specifically medical device companies. The only industry that was part of the universe
but was not represented in the set was Utilities.
1. All stocks which meet screen criteria not including minimum TSR of 350%
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2. Includes Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples
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Geographic Representation Over-Represented

Under-Represented
We looked at companies headquartered in North America, Western Europe, and Australia.
Continental Breakdown Country Breakdown Relative to Investable Universe1

% of Total % of Set
11.54% US 44.1% 28.8%
32.69% UK 10.0% 15.4%
11.5%
Sweden 8.7% 12.5%
7.7% Australia 5.1% 11.5%
Germany 4.8% 9.6%
15.4% Norway 2.7% 7.7%
55.77%
Canada 5.27% 3.8%
12.5% France 4.1% 2.9%
Denmark 1.71% 2.9%
North America Ireland 0.8% 1%
Western Europe Austria 0.37% 1%
9.6%
Australia Luxembourg 0.32% 1%
Relative to Investable Universe1 28.8%
The US is actually under-represented with 29% of the
% of Total % of Set set but making up 44% of the total universe.
North America 49.56% 32.69%
Western Europe 45.31% 55.77% Australia UK US Australia, UK, Sweden, Germany, and Norway are notably
Australia 5.13% 11.54% Canada Germany Sweden over-represented.
France Norway Ireland
While many great opportunities are found in NA, Italy, Switzerland, and Spain are notably excluded with
investors seeking the best opportunities will Denmark Austria Switzerland
no top performers but are apart of the universe
need to be open to intercontinental companies. Luxembourg
1All stocks which meet screen criteria not including minimum TSR of 350% 8
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Stock Exchange Representation
The best performers were found on 15 different stock exchanges across North America, Europe, and Australia.
The majority of companies were found on But there were 12 other exchanges represented on
these three exchanges: the list as well:
11.54% 2.88%
21.15%1
9.62% 1.92%5
7.69% 1.92%
13.46%
6.73%3 0.96%
3.85% 0.96%
12.50%2 3.85%4 0.96%
1Accounts 3Accounts
for both normal NYSE and AMEX stocks
for NASDAQCM, NASDAQGM, and NASDAQGS
4Accounts
for both normal TSX and TSXV
2NASDAQ
9
Stockholm 5NASDAQ Copenhagen
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Size of the Companies

While some large companies were included in the set, smaller companies were represented more often and returned larger TSRs on
average.
Company Sizes Investors need to be willing to look at small,

60 51
under looked, and under covered stocks to find
Number of Stocks
50 44
40
36 36 some of the biggest winners:
27 24
30
17 17
20
10 4
0
0
Nano-Cap Micro-Cap Small-Cap Mid-Cap Large-Cap
(< $50M) ($50M - $300M) ($300M - $2B) ($2B - $10B) (> $10B)
Stock Category
TSR Breakdown
But with that said, many companies with >1B
2000%
market caps outperformed as well:
1500%
TSR %
1000%
500%
0%
Nano-Cap Micro-Cap Small-Cap Mid-Cap Large-Cap
(< $50M) ($50M - $300M) ($300M - $2B) ($2B - $10B) (> $10B)
Average 1855% 682% 590% 459% 413%
Median 1114% 508% 431% 414% 403%
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Financial Metrics
Revenue Breakdown
40
Gross Margin
35
FY 2015 FY 2019 Change
Number of Companies
35
30
25
26 25
21
25th Percentile 30.42% 31.69% 127 bps
20
20 16
14 15 50th Percentile 46.40% 49.19% 279 bps
15 11 11
10
9
5
5
0
< $50M $50M - $100M $100M - $250M $250M - $500M $500M - $1B > $1B SG&A Percentage
Revenue
FY 2015 FY 2019 Change
25th Percentile 53.57% 45.11% -846 bps
EBITDA Breakdown 50th Percentile 34.43% 30.27% -416 bps
45
40
39
42
75th Percentile 16.30% 14.35% -195 bps
Number of Companies
35
30
25 20
25
EBITDA Margin
20
15
15 16
13
15 FY 2015 FY 2019 Change
9
10
5
6 7
1
0 50th Percentile 10.22% 17.75% 753 bps
< $0M $0M - $5M $5M - $10M $10M - $15M $15M - $50M > $50M
EBITDA
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What Caused This Set of Companies to Outperform So Much?

The S&P 500 returned 55.45% from June 2015 to June 2020 while the average return of the set was 922% and the highest performer
returned 9,199%.
1200%
922% Top 3 Stocks of the Set
1000%
800%
9,199%
600%
400%
8,217%
200%
55.45%
0%
4,712%
S&P 500 Avg of Set
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What Drove the Returns
We broke down what drove TSR for each stock – EBITDA growth1, dividends, and multiple expansion.
TSR Drivers (as % of TSR)

70.00% 65.71% On average, EBITDA growth contributed 59.82% of TSR
59.82% and multiple expansion contributed 44.78% of TSR.
60.00%
50.00% 44.78% However, the medians tell a different story: EBITDA

40.00% 33.65%
growth contributed 33.65% of TSR and multiple
expansion contributed 65.71% of TSR.
30.00%
20.00% In general, multiple expansion and EBITDA growth

10.00% played a roughly even role in driving TSR.
1.63% 0.00%
0.00%
EBITDA Growth Dividends Multiple Expansion Dividends seldom made a major impact and only drove
Avg Median
>10% of TSR for 2 companies.
80% of companies had more shares outstanding in Multiples contracted for 11 companies which muted TSR.
2020 than in 2015. 23% of companies diluted by more
than 50%, and 11% diluted by more than 100%.
1. Revenue was used when EBITDA was negative 13

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Revenue and EBITDA Growth

Median revenue grew from 113% and median EBITDA grew 137% from FY15 to FY19.
Revenue Growth % Breakdown Revenue CAGR Quartiles

35 45%
Number of Companies
30 40%
25 35% 38.30%
CAGR %
20 30%
15 33 25%
29
10 19 20%
13 20.88%
5 15%
6 4 10% 13.81%
0
< 50% 50% - 100% 100% - 250% 250% - 500% 500% - 1,000% > 1,000% 5%
0%
Revenue Growth %
25 Percentile 50 Percentile 75 Percentile
EBITDA Growth % Breakdown EBITDA CAGR Quartiles

40 50%
Number of Companies
35
30 40% 44.53%
CAGR %
25
20 30%
15 34
28.19%
10 23 20%
15 14
5 9 9 17.96%
0 10%
< 0% 0% - 100% 100% - 250% 250% - 500% 500% - 1,000% > 1,000%
0%
EBITDA Growth %
25 Percentile 50 Percentile 75 Percentile
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What Drove EBITDA / Revenue Growth 1/2
Acquisitions, new products, and new contracts were often central to the growth algorithms of the companies in the set.
Companies often made Transformative New products Major New Contracts

acquisitions
27% 17%
56% Percentage of companies which launched Percentage of companies which won
Percentage of companies where EVI and JD used acquisitions to
transformative new products2 major new contracts2
acquisitions were key to their grow from 2015-2020.
growth1
EOS launched new Remote Weapon

System’s product which enabled the IVU landed major new contracts in
company to become profitable. Germany for its rail software.
19% Companies Benefited from COVID-19 Related Demand
Percentage of companies who not

only made acquisitions but made at
ERI’s acquisition of Caesars
Entertainment was a 17%
transformative acquisition. SLP saw its demand jump
least one transformative Percentage of companies whose stock considerably as companies began
acquisition2 was positively impacted by the racing to develop a COVID-19
coronavirus pandemic2 vaccine.
1. Based on our subjective analysis of whether acquisitions were key to driving their growth and TSR; does not include all companies which made
acquisitions 15
2. Based on our own subjective analysis
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What Drove EBITDA / Revenue Growth 2/2
Companies leveraged barriers to entry and competitive advantages to grow margins and profit.
Companies leveraged barriers to entry which Companies leveraged their competitive

impeded new competitors. advantages.
42% Example Barriers To Entry: Example Competitive Advantages:
1. Regulatory barriers (i.e. FDA

Percentage of companies where 1. Network effects
approval)
barriers to entry were assessed to be
high
2. Technological complexity of
91%
industry / start-up costs Percentage of companies 2. Cost Advantages
assessed to have at least
38% 3. Human capital requirements
moderate competitive
advantages relative to their 3. Intangible Advantages
Percentage of companies where competitors
barriers to entry were assessed to be
medium 4. Patents
4. Switching Costs
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Valuation Multiples
NTM Revenue Multiple1 NTM EBITDA Multiple1 NTM P/E Multiple1
38
40
40 35 35
Number of Stocks
28 29
Number of Stocks
Number of Stocks
30 30
30 24
24 25 22
21 19
20 20 16 16
20 12
13 13 15 1211 12
11 9 9
10 7 6 4 7 10 6 5 10 7
4 4 5
3 3 5 1 2 3 3 3
1 0 0
0 0 0
< 1x 1x - 2x 2x - 3x 3x - 4x 4x - 5x 5x - 10x > 10x < 5x 5x - 10x 10x - 20x 20x - 30x 30x - 40x > 40x < 10x 10x - 20x 20x - 30x 30x - 40x 40x - 50x 50x - 60x > 60x
2015 2020 Change 2015 2020 Change 2015 2020 Change

25th Percentile 0.94x 2.88x 208.02% 25th Percentile 7.58x 16.52x 117.91% 25th Percentile 14.05x 30.49x 116.94%
50th Percentile 1.68x 5.53x 229.17% 50th Percentile 10.26x 24.79x 141.62% 50th Percentile 17.57x 42.90x 144.13%
75th Percentile 3.09x 8.64x 179.45% 75th Percentile 13.77x 32.52x 136.18% 75 Percentile
th 27.12x 55.75x 105.55%
Along with revenue, EBITDA, and net income growth (and better outlook) multiples expanded for a variety of reasons – including better
management, better investor relations, and mitigating financial crises.
Better investor relations
6% efforts was often a source of
multiple expansion due to
12%
Percentage of times new an increased awareness of Percentage of times
management was noted the company; this often NLAB improved IR by mitigating a crisis was
ETSY’s new CEO turned CCX divested from
as a key event and helped the helped make the took the form of attending releasing English noted as a key event and multiple unprofitable
expand the company’s conferences and providing financial reports, among helped expand the
company profitable. business units.
multiple other improvements. company’s multiple
more detailed financials
1. Does not include LTM multiples (not all companies had forward multiples five years ago) 17
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High-Level Takeaways
1) Look for businesses with advantageous positioning: 80% of businesses had moderate-to-high barriers to entry and 91% had
moderate-to-high competitive advantages.
2) Spend time on financially healthy companies: 88% of outperformers came from a position of financial health in June 2015 and
grew faster than the market might have anticipated. Looking for financially healthy companies, rather than turnarounds, is also less
risky.
3) Acquisitions can create value: While many acquisitions fail to create value1, the highest performing stocks often leverage
acquisitions to bolster their returns. If you are looking for phenomenal returns, finding companies that make strong acquisitions will
increase your odds of success.
4) Don’t rely on multiples: While it is always better to buy a great business at a low multiple rather than a high one, many of the
top performing stocks began with already healthy multiples – those multiples often expanded even further.
5) Be open to international companies: Many of the best performing were American (32%); however, the USA was under-
represented in the set2, meaning it is less likely that a company in America would achieve > 350% returns compared to some other
countries such as Sweden, Australia, and Germany.
1https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/where-mergers-go-wrong
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2All stocks which meet screen criteria not including minimum TSR of 350%
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Specific Takeaways
If we were to screen for future multibaggers, we believe the following criteria would return the highest percentage of success.
• Companies in the UK, Sweden, Germany, Norway, and Australia

• These countries were over-represented in the set likely because of their strong rule of law, quality educational institutions,
Country and favorable economic conditions
• There also tends to be less initial coverage of smaller stocks in these countries than in the U.S., which may be due to lower
populations of small-cap focused analysts and investors
• Companies in technology and healthcare industries

• The industries were over-represented in the set likely because of often low unit costs, high gross margins, high operational
Industry leverage, and growth opportunities
• The aging population and an increased reliance on tech/software for everyday life have and will continue to be strong
tailwinds for the growth of these industries
• Companies with market caps below $2B

• Companies below $2B market caps represented 84% of the set, often because of low analyst coverage and institutional
Size ownership
• Smaller companies often have more room to increase their share of their target markets relative to larger companies, which
often have larger market penetration
• Companies trading below 3x NTM Sales, 20x NTM EBITDA, and 30x NTM PE and/or those without forward multiples
Multiples • 82% of companies from the set traded below these multiples or without forward multiples five years ago
• These leave room for multiple expansion, which drove a substantial amount of the TSRs
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Table of Contents – Individual Stock Slides (In Order from Highest to Lowest TSR)
1) ZYXI 22 14) BOO 100 27) SLP 178 40) CHGG 256
2) E2N 28 15) PET 106 28) FDEV 184 41) BOUVET 262
3) XBC 34 16) CLV 112 29) ALU 190 42) DATA 268
4) APX 40 17) VOW 118 30) BIOT 196 43) EUZ 274
5) FNOX 46 18) BACTI B 124 31) AQZ 202 44) FEVR 280
6) KRMD 52 19) PME 130 32) DTL 208 45) QDEL 286
7) CHEMM 58 20) INS 136 33) SKY 214 46) EXEL 292
8) GAW 64 21) SMLR 142 34) MUM 220 47) BLFS 298
9) GENO 70 22) KWS 148 35) SSM 226 48) MRCY 304
10) XIL 76 23) HUB 154 36) ABDP 232 49) VITR 310
11) FIVN 82 24) YSN 160 37) SOI 238 50) EVI 316
12) JIN 88 25) FUTR 166 38) YOU 244 51) EOS 322
13) HYQ 94 26) CWST 172 39) NOVT 250 52) BVXP 328
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Table of Contents – Individual Stock Slides (In Order from Highest to Lowest TSR)
53) TSTL 334 66) XPEL 412 79) ILM1 490 92) GAMA 568
54) MCAP 340 67) JD. 418 80) AMED 496 93) NRC 574
55) NLAB 346 68) IVSO 424 81) IGR 502 94) TROAX 580
56) S30 352 69) KXS 430 82) IDEA 508 95) NEO 586
57) LUNA 358 70) RWS 436 83) SECT B 514 96) SANT 592
58) MEDI 364 71) ERI 442 84) TOM 520 97) SALM 598
59) AMBU B 370 72) FOXF 448 85) AOF 526 98) VITB 604
60) LTG 376 73) BEIJ B 454 86) ALESK 532 99) IVU 610
61) NOTE 382 74) BANB 460 87) BC8 538 100) IPHI 616
62) DDR 388 75) ETSY 466 88) LGIH 544 101) ENTG 622
63) APHA 394 76) BEAT 472 89) GSB 550 102) NRS 628
64) CJT 400 77) HTRO 478 90) D6H 556 103) ALSN 634
65) KIT 406 78) ARWR 484 91) CCX 562 104) GSF 640
21
Owen Stimpson
9,119%
5 Year TSR
NasdaqCM:ZYXI
Rank: 1/104
22
Zynex Overview
Zynex Medical is a medical device manufacturer that produces
EV / LTM Revenue
and markets electrotherapy devices for use in pain management,
physical rehabilitation, neurological diagnosis and cardiac 2019
monitoring.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Stock Price $0.22 $21.26
Market Cap $6.88M $705.67M

0.00x 5.00x 10.00x 15.00x
Enterprise Value $11.37M $696.81M
Shares Outstanding 31.27M 33.19
EV / LTM Revenue 0.62x 13.46x
EV / NTM EBITDA NA 28.50x
PE NA 49.07x
Statistic FY 2015 FY 2019
Revenue 11.6M 45.5M
EBITDA (2.1M) 11.8M
23
Zynex Business Model
Primary Product Context
Sales by Division
Non-invasive electrotherapy ZYXI is a pain management
Zynex pain management devices that product company.
Medical require a prescription and are
generally billed to insurance. • Products to treat chronic and 100%
acute pain through
elecotrotherapy.
• Products designed for home- Zynex Medical

use and are easy to use.
Sales by Geography
• Market products to
physicians and therapists
who then prescribe use of
ZYXI products to patients
who bill their insurance. 100%
Zynex’s NeuroMove that is primarily used for • Help reduce reliance on

stroke, spinal cord and traumatic brain injury medication, particularly NA
rehabilitation. opioids.
ZYXI is a capital light business as they outsource much of their
manufacturing.
24
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Zynex Competitive Analysis High Threat
Competitive What’s Changed in

Competitive Landscape Barriers To Entry Risks
Advantages the Industry
• Regulatory barriers:
• Relationships
FDA approval can
Market Monopolistic with physicians
Global take years. • Higher prevalence of
Structure Competition and therapists
Electrotherapy • Start up costs: it can are key to neurological
Market Size ≈964M1 disorders anticipated
Market require significant getting
Industry research and prescribed. • Changes in to drive future
Manufacturing and MSD1 development to create reimbursement growth.
Growth
distribution of a variety of a new product. policies /
electrotherapy treatments and • ZYXI is one of the largest • Navigating regulations.
• Sales force is needed • Opioid epidemic in
devices for a variety of issues, American players but the reimbursement
to communicate the US has worsened:
such as spinal cord injuries industry remains fragmented. schemes can be
product effectiveness • Other 128 people die each
and neurological disorders. challenging.
to physicians and treatments day in the US to
• Getting FDA approval for novel therapists. prove to be opioid overdose.
electrotherapy system devices • Device more effective.
• However, there are • Catalyzed
remains key point of functionality:
many over-the- trend away
competition. ZYXI
counter from drug-
electrotherapy NeuroWave has based
devices, and many three modalities treatments.
devices do not involve (one is
new tech. standard).
1. Applied 4.6% growth to 2018 figures; https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-electrotherapy-system-market-to-surpass-us-1-3-billion-by-2027--coherent-

market-insights-300926014.html 25
What Investors Missed
The Actual Story of the Last Five Years
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • Heightened cash flow from operations
ZYXI survived enabled ZYXI to repay its credit facility that
• Existential concerns – uncertainty whether the company will
was in default.
remain a going concern.
• ZYXI grew revenue by 292% from FY2015 to
• Liquidity issues and default on credit facility means ZYXI
FY2019 and maintained gross margins > 80%.
will be forced to dilute existing shareholders and may go
under. • Sales reps increased from 0 direct sales reps in
ZYXI grew and
FY2017, to 140 at the end of FY2019.
maintained
• Skepticism over growth prospects for ZYXI. margins. • NextWave is an alternative treatment for
• And if there is opportunity, why invest in ZYXI when there opioids – which are the source of an epidemic
are two larger players better suited to capture the growth. across the US. Orders increased 95% from
FY2018 to FY2019.
• Sales force will get more efficient over time –
management projects each sales force member
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results
Created potential to generate 1M in annual revenue at maturity.
runways for future • Razor and blade opportunity: ≈80% of
growth revenue is recurring supplies sales, as more
devices are sold recurring revenue
possibilities increase dramatically.
• Both of ZYXI’s main competitors - International
Rehabilitative Sciences($150M annual
revenue) and EMPI ($250M annual revenue)
Competitors didn’t closed after failing audits from the OIG.
capture growth –
• However, both companies said they
instead, they closed
closed due to unprofitability; and
neither could find a buyer for the
business.
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Zynex Takeaways
ZYXI is a Decent Business - 2.5/5 Future Outlook
• ZYXI’s two main competitors shut down after Can ZYXI Sustain its Market Position?
prosecution from the inspector general. • ZYXI is the dominant player in the industry and the only
ZYXI survived and now one with a significant sales force.
has a moat • Regulatory restrictions and relationships with
physicians and therapists (that have been bolstered by • There are many over-the-counter competitors.
the salesforce) impede new entrants. • Supplies sales will likely come under scrutiny given their
high reimbursement but low differentiation.
ZYXI grew its topline • Expanded sales force increased sales capacity and helped
while maintaining its grow revenue at a 35% CAGR from FY2015 – FY2019. Can ZYXI continue to grow faster than the industry?
margins • Gross margins remained above 80%. • ZYXI’s sales force is the largest which will enable ZYXI to
• The electrotherapy industry is under significant threat better market new products.
from reimbursement changes: • Other than the NextWAve, ZYXI’s products have all been
• One of the largest insurers for ZYXI, Tricare, is no failures – and has only spent an average of $330k on R&D
longer covering their products. They even cited a since 2007.
study that electrotherapy doesn’t work.1
Is ZYXI poised to continue to outperform the market?
• ZYXI has mentioned that collections are down from
• Under threat from doubts over product effectiveness and
multiple insurance payors.
insurance no longer covering their products.
ZYXI runway for growth is • As ZYXI grows, it will come under heightened scrutiny from
• Supplies sales are likely to be depressed as they entice
less clear insurance:
consumers to overbill their insurance with copay waivers.
• Supplies sales are billed to insurance at high rates
• Many supplies products are commodities.
but many products are commodities (i.e. batteries
and electrodes). • Operational leverage from sales force may move in the other
direction.
• ZYXI has been alleged to waive deductibles and
copays to entice consumers to – a practice that is • The company trades at 42.9x NTM EPS, implying strong
in a legal grey area and harms insurance growth and at a premium to the market but outlook is less
companies.2 strong.
1. https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M16-2367
2. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4352747-zynex-deteriorating-fundamentals-and-signs-of-reimbursement-pressure 27
Max Schieferdecker
8,217%
5 Year TSR
MUN:E2N
Rank: 2/104
28
Endor Overview
Endor AG is a gaming accessory company based in Bavaria, LTM EV/Sales Multiple
Germany that sells high-end sim racing gear under the brand
name Fanatec. 2020 9.2x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 0.4x
Stock Price €1.04 €112.00
0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x
Market Cap €1.85M €208.44M
Enterprise Value €1.53M €208.49M
Shares Outstanding 1.78M 1.93M
EV / LTM EBITDA 188.56x 102.20x
LTM P/E 3.57x 226.58x Z
Revenue 10.97M 39.38M
EBITDA 2.28M 6.50M
1There is no FY19 annual report, so numbers are not exact 29

Endor Business Model
Primary Products Context
• Wheels are used to steer E2N provides its customers with
in-game high-quality sim racing
Wheels and
• Bases connect the experiences
Bases
wheels to the gaming
• Their products are made to
platform
replicate as close as possible
• Used to speed up and their real-world equivalents
Pedals
brake in-game • This means heavy-duty,
metal parts and genuine
• Includes shifters, leather
Other No Revenue Breakdowns Provided
paddles, handbrakes,
Accessories • The steering wheels give
and mounting materials
the customer the same
feeling they would have in
a real racecar with the
same wheel
• All products are individual, so
customers can mix-and-match
wheels, bases, pedals, etc.
• Popular games that Fanatec E2N is a capital light business as all
devices are commonly used for manufacturing is outsourced to China
CSL Elite racing wheel and base include the F1 series and Forza
12019 ROCE not included because there is no balance sheet data for FY19 30
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Endor Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
Barriers To Entry Competitive Advantages Risks
in the Industry
Gaming Simulators
The players in this industry offer • Extremely high-quality

hardware products that complement • Supplier and licensing
products with a well-
and enhance video game software concentration
respected reputation in the
with the goal of making games more • Each product is
sim racing industry
realistic. • Licensing agreements with only manufactured • VR gaming has
consoles • Key partnerships and
by one or two become much
licensing agreements with
• Brand recognition plays a suppliers more prevalent
many big brands
big role in the gaming • The ability to create • Esports has
Market • These include BMW,
Oligopoly industry new products relies become much
Structure Porsche, NASCAR,
• No extremely material heavily on the more mainstream
F1, and Forza,
Market Size $8.25B1 barriers to entry are manufacturers of in recent years as
among others
present, however gaming platforms well
Industry • Highly dedicated CEO who
> 10%1 • Inability to fully capitalize
Growth is very connected to the
on large increases in
broader sim racing
demand
community
1https://3wnews.org/uncategorised/2670177/gaming-simulators-market-2020-global-industry-size-share-explosive-factors-of-
key-players-future-trends-and-industry-growth-rate-forecast-to-2024/ 31
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: The Actual Story of the Last Five Years
• Endor was (and still is) a micro-cap stock without any
• In late 2015, the first CSL wheel was
English financials that is listed on a small stock exchange
launched
• Not many investors were aware of the stock at the Expanded • The CSL series was designed to be a
time Downmarket slightly cheaper, albeit still quite
• There was not a lot of mainstream recognition and expensive, alternative to its
acceptance of gaming, and sim racing in particular extremely high-end ClubSport series
• All of Fanatec’s products were extremely high-priced, • Fanatec began investing into marketing
meaning their target market was even more niche than the Implemented their products through partnerships with
general nicheness of the industry as a whole Marketing big names in the auto industry and on
Campaigns large Esports stages
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results • No marketing had been run prior to 2015
• Due to coronavirus shutting down all sports
for a couple months, many turned to Esports
and video games as a means to quench their
thirst for competition
COVID-19 • There were large races with pro drivers put
No Analyst Coverage Boosted Sales on by large racing companies such as
Considerably NASCAR and F1
• Sim racing was exposed to a broader
audience than ever before
• Many people now had the time to invest
heavily into a resource consuming hobby
32
Back to List
Endor Takeaways
E2N is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
• The quality of Fanatec’s products compared to its Can E2N Sustain its Advantages?
competitors has created a loyal customer base
• Fanatec has established itself as the
• A historically niche market is becoming more mainstream premier sim racing accessory brand in
• At the high price-point that many Fanatec products the world
are sold at, any sizable increase in interest in sim • Quality standards will likely be kept
racing will lead to top and bottom line growth for given the passion that the CEO has for
E2N has a Strong E2N the industry and his company
Customer Base • One thing that is a cause for concern, however, is the
displeasure that has been expressed on their forum Can E2N continue to grow?
regarding the terrible customer service and communication • Given the extreme increase in demand in
regarding huge backorders and delays in shipment dates the past few months, and the upcoming
• This might cause E2N to lose a decent amount of new console releases, E2N will
customers, as sooner or later everyone will be going undoubtedly continue to grow in the near
back to their normal lives future
• Historically, when new generations of consoles come out,
sales for E2N have spiked Is E2N poised to continue to outperform?
• Given the increased interest in sim racing recently, and • Although multiple expansion played a large
Prime Position to the upcoming releases of the PS5 and Xbox Series X, role in prior outperformance, the increase
Capitalize on Fanatec should see an extremely high level of growth in sales was also substantial
Corona • Because of the massive backorders and new customer base, • Given recent sales numbers and the future
Fanatec has also stated that they are looking to hiring more
growth possibilities, E2N will absolutely
employees in order to continue to grow and service the
demand that is and will be present
continue to outperform
33
Owen Stimpson
4,712%
5 Year TSR
TSXV:XBC
Rank: 3/104
34
Xebec Adsorption Overview In Canadian Dollars
Xebec Adsorption Inc designs, engineers and manufactures

EV / LTM Revenue
products to transform raw gases into marketable sources of clean
energy. The company has three reportable segments: Systems, 2019
Infrastructure and Support.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020
Stock Price $0.07 $4.08 2015

0x 1x 2x 3x 4x 5x 6x
PE NA 46.21x
EBITDA (2.6M) 4.65M
35
Xebec Business Model
Sales by Division
XBC is a renewable gas
Design, engineers, and systems and equipment 23%
Cleantech manufactures equipment company.
systems used in the production of
renewable natural gas. • Renewable natural gas is a
carbon neutral natural gas
77%
made from decomposing
organic matter. Systems Support
Support and maintenance • Methane from landfills,
services for customers farms, etc. can be
Support converted to clean Sales by Geography
that are using Xebec
products. energy. 17%
• Designs and makes
equipment that helps 38%
customers create renewable
gasses. 26%
• XBC buys small service
Develop renewable gas 19%
companies to expand service
Infrastructure assets to produce and sell US Canada China Other
capabilities for existing
RNG.1
customers, and to create
recurring revenue. XBC is a highly capital-intensive business.
1. Planned segment but XBC does not have any RNG assets yet.
36
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Xebec Competitive Analysis High Threat

Renewable
Gas
Market Monopolistic • Capital intensive – • Climate change has
Equipment Structure Competition need the capital to • Proprietary become an
Industry Market Size ≈$10.9B1
create and develop technology. increasingly
necessary products. prominent political
This industry consists of Industry • Human capital (i.e. issue.
HSD1 • Ability to offer
equipment manufacturers, Growth skilled engineers continued • Global
engineers, and designers of required). service and pressure to
• Most competitors in both • Technological
renewable gas equipment, • Regulatory burdens, maintenance. move towards
RNG and renewable obsolesce.
including both renewable and many contracts carbon
natural gas (RNG) and hydrogen have negative
are large and with neutral
renewable hydrogen. operating margins. • Relationships • Regulatory
governments (which energy
• Relatively new industry that and contracts changes.
present bureaucratic sources.
is growing fast – competitors with major
challenges). customers (i.e. • Paris Agreement
are fighting to scale.
• Technology is new governments, signed in 2016; many
• XBC one of the only
and there is a waste countries legislated
companies with exposure to
heightened risk of management, clean energy
both RNG and renewable
hydrogen. technological etc.). mandates with
obsolescence. varying timelines.
1. Xebec’s own estimates; https://investors.xebecinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020-06-03-Investor-Presentation-English-Distribution.pdf

37
The Bear Thesis Four Years Ago: The
TheActual
ActualStory
Storyof
ofthe
theLast
LastFive
FiveYears
Years
• Management identified the opportunity in
renewable natural gas and incurred short
• Unprofitable company – and even revenue is decreasing. term losses to make the switch.
Capitalized on new • Revenue was decreasing in oil and gas
• Xebec has existed for 50 years, there's no reason to think that now opportunity in
is the time they will grow. related revenues.
renewable natural
gas • Management cut the segment to
• XBC is a small company that purports to have a huge opportunity, focus on new Cleantech.
but its very speculative and not worth the time nor the risk. • Cleantech revenue grown at 70%
CARGR from FY2016 to FY2019.
• XBC leveraged its legacy air drying and
Consensus vs Results compressed air product lines to develop
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results proprietary, best-in class renewable natural
XBC developed
strong technology gas adsorption products.
and saw the • Demand continues to increase, and now XBC
opportunity early has one of the best products – enabling them
to participate in the upside of the industry
growth.
• Concern over climate change has only kept
increasing and demand for renewable natural
Opportunity is not gas demand has increased in tandem.
pure speculation • Many companies have already made
commitment to increasing their
renewable natural gas use.1
1. https://investors.xebecinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2020-06-03-Investor-Presentation-English-Distribution.pdf
38
Back to List
Xebec Takeaways
XBC is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
Can XBC Sustain its Market Position?
• Existing business was fine but XBC used it to pivot
• XBC’s technology is proprietary and they are a first mover
into the more lucrative, higher growth renewable
in the space.
Renewable gas bet gas industry.
worked out • Unclear to me, however, how proprietary the
• Ultimately changed organization from focussing on
technology is or whether the technology is still
air drying and oil and gas services to a renewable gas
evolving quickly (which could render XBC’s
company.
technology obsolete).
Can XBC continue to grow faster than the industry?
• Revenue grown at 34% CAGR from 11M in FY2015 to • If XBC can sustain its market position as the leader in the
over 49M in FY2019. industry and the company with the best technology, it will
continue to capture much of the industry’s growth.
• Natural gas utilities continuing their push into
• Acquisitions in service will increase recurring revenue
Revenue grown due to renewable natural gas, which increases demand for
stream.
macro trends renewable gas and for XBC’s products.
• New technology could be invented by a competitor – difficult
• Climate change legislation that increases demand for to access this risk given how new the industry is.
renewable energy continues to be enacted around the
world. Is XBC poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Macro trends likely will remain positive.
• If XBC can maintain its positioning as the leader, they will
• The trends that contributed to XBC’s success show no likely outperform. But there is the risk of potential new
sign of slowing down. entrants.
Runway for future growth
• Strong backorder volume: 100M in order backlog. • XBC needs to continue to show positive growth to avoid
is clear
• Acquisition strategy to increase recurring service multiple contraction given its current 35x NTM EBITDA
revenue. multiple.
39
Max Schieferdecker
4,611%
5 Year TSR
ASX:APX
Rank: 4/104
40
Appen Overview
Appen is a data management company based in Chatswood,
NSW, Australia, that provides machine learning and artificial
NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
intelligence applications for technology companies, auto
manufacturers, and government agencies. 2020 25.6x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 6.8x
Stock Price 0.67 AUD 28.34 AUD
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
Market Cap 64.23M AUD 3.45B AUD
Enterprise Value 55.58M AUD 3.39B AUD
EV / NTM Revenue 0.94x 4.59x
EV / NTM EBITDA 6.84x 23.79x
NTM P/E 13.06x 40.57x Z
EBITDA 13.87M 83.74M
41
Appen Business Model
Primary Products Context Sales by Category
• Annotated data APX teaches machines (AI) how to 12.6% 0.1%
Relevance used in search interpret real world actions
technology • APX utilizes an online independent
• Annotated speech contractor model to collect and label
87.3%
and image data data
used in recognizers, • Relevant applications include search
Relevance Speech & Image Other
machine engine, social media applications, and
translations, e-commers
Speech &
machine • Speech & Image applications include
Image Sales by Geography
translation, speech the creation of more engaging and
synthesizers, and fluent devices including internet- 11.1% 1.4%
other machine– connected devices, in-car automotive
learning systems, and speech-enabled
technologies consumer electronics 87.5%
• Provides a data set of words,
accents, etc. for products like USA Australia Other
Siri, Alexa, etc.

• These applications constantly need to
APX is a capital light business there as there are low
be refreshed to maintain relevance to
overhead costs and contractors are relatively cheap
the time it is operating in
42
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Appen Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Big Data Analytics
The players in this industry offer data

analysis of large data sets to enable
companies to make better business
decisions. • Global workforce of over 1
• Regulation of the AI
• Reputation and dominant million contractors
industry could harm
existing players can make • Represents 130 Appen’s customer base
it hard for new players to countries and 180 • Larger presence
gain market share • Changes in independent
Market Monopolistic languages of AI in everyday
Structure Competition contractor laws for tech
• Highly advanced • Broadest set of AI tools in life
companies who rely on
technology is needed to be the space as most
Market Size $47.1B1 them as a core part of their
competitive competitors tend to business
Industry specialize
> 10%1
Growth
1https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-global-big-data-analytics-market-2027-a-105-billion-opportunity-assessment
43
• In November 2017, Leapforce was
• APX was a nano-cap stock when it IPOed in January, 2015 acquired for $80m, which
• There was not a lot of time to nor knowledge of the substantially grew Appen’s “crowd”
company for the market to effectively value it Key to over 1.2 million from 400,000
• The little data that was present since the IPO (H1 y/y growth) Acquisitions • In April 2019, Figure Eight was
was not overwhelmingly impressive enough to warrant a large acquired for $300m, which greatly
enhanced their annotation
price increase
capabilities
Return Breakdown: • Large players in the tech industry

Consensus vs Results
who utilize Appen’s services began
developing more projects in the AI
space
Strong • Because of the large impact that
economies of scale play in this business
Increase in model due to the low overhead costs,
Demand the incremental margins were
substantial
• Both of these factors contributed to a
large overachievement of earnings
estimates, particularly in 2018
44
Back to List
Appen Takeaways
APX is a Great Business – 5/5 Future Outlook
• The value that Appen provides to the large tech Can APX Sustain its Advantages?
companies is extremely high and not present • Appen has been operating in the space
elsewhere for a long time (24 years), so it has
• It has been trusted by Apple, Google, and the developed a reputation, “crowd”, and
U.S. government set of tools that would be difficult for
APX has a Moat • Without Appen, these companies would be spending a any competitors to overtake
lot more money and resources to come up with a more Can APX continue to grow?
inferior data set
• The tailwinds behind the AI industry are
• The collection and annotation of data is vital to extremely powerful
the success of these businesses, so Appen has a
lot of supplier power
• Appen will undoubtedly grow in
proportion to or faster than the industry
• The Speech and Image segment of the business does not as a whole given how critical its value-add
represent a large amount of revenues at the moment, is to the industry
but there is a large market for those services
Is APX poised to continue to outperform?
• Expansion into the relatively untapped China market
(2nd largest AI market after US) is being invested in
• Although there has been some multiple
Promising Future expansion, its current multiples are still
• High cash balance and no debt puts it in a great position
Opportunities below their ATHs
to invest in future growth without as much stress on the
cash flows of the business • The market can only account for so much
• Recently started investing more heavily in their potential given the uncertainty of their
sales and marketing operations in order to plans, and the S&I business and China
increase their client base even more market represent huge growth potential
45
Owen Stimpson
2,406%
5 Year TSR
NGM:FNOX
Rank: 5/104
46
Fortnox Overview Currency in Swedish Krona
Fortnox AB operates as a cloud-based platform for financial

EV / NTM EBITDA
administration for small businesses, accounting firms,
associations, and schools. It offers various programs and services 2019
for billing, bookkeeping, payroll, and expense management.
Statistic 04/01/2016 06/08/2020
Stock Price 16.1 Kr 272.00 Kr 2015
Market Cap 940.52M Kr 16.26B Kr

0x 10x 20x 30x 40x 50x 60x
Enterprise Value 906.56M Kr 16.17B Kr
PE 39.51x 81.79x
EBITDA 25.5M 177.4M
47
Fortnox Business Model
Variety of cloud-based
SaaS administration services for FNOX is a cloud based administration
software company. All of FNOX’s revenue is in Sweden and
Services small businesses and
all is generated through SaaS services.
accounting firms.
• Current expertise is in accounting The company does not have any other
software used by accounting firms in reportable segment nor any substantial
Sweden sales in another country.
• 50% of the sector already uses
FNOX software in Sweden. FNOX is a medium capital business
solely because of the capital
• Also leading supplier of ERP systems requirement to develop new software.
for small businesses in Sweden.
• FNOX working to increase modules

and features for existing products.
• Also has network of partners
that develop software that
ports into FNOX software.
FNOX software dashboard.
48
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Fortnox Competitive Analysis High Threat

• Upselling more • Major

Market • High switching costs:
Oligopoly products to competitor
Structure once a company
ERP Systems customer base. (i.e. SAP or
begins to use FNOX
Market in Market Size ≈402.68M Kr1 Oracle) make
software, they incur • Increased digitization
a major push
Sweden Industry
MSD2 costs if they want to • Wide ranging
into Swedish of small companies.
Growth switch. customer base.
Participants supply a variety of small • Especially in
• Product offering: new business finance and
different ERP systems to • Major international customers may want a • Industry market. administration
companies operating in competitors, but few focused full suite of solutions – standard: (FNOX’s
Sweden. on Swedish market. but its challenging to accounting firms industry): one in
• Many competitors offer one start with a range of • Technological
hesitant to use two small
service, few with full suite of products. obsolesce.
something else. business owners
options. • FNOX has compiled believe those
• Many competitors’ customer feedback • Downturn in areas are
• Ecosystem of
software ports into and is in tune of what Swedish greatest
software that
FNOX software so the market economy opportunity for
connects to
both can be used wants/needs. (bankruptcies digitization.
simultaneously. FNOX software.
• Low-start up capital already
required; many major mentioned as
• Churn is very source of
international players.
low. churn).
1. https://www.statista.com/forecasts/966871/erp-software-market-revenue-in-sweden
2. Based on historical growth rates 49
The Bear Thesis Four Years Ago:
• World has become more digital every year
• Niche company with some growth prospects – but not that many. and business has digitized as well.
Digitization has
• Major companies will prioritize digital transformation, but
become increasingly • FNOX notes that digitization is especially
small companies will not.
important, and important for small business to remain
popular competitive – they can’t afford to lose the
• FNOX’s product offering is not that large and their growth will be
stunted by the lack of breadth. digital edge to larger competitors.
• And competitors will create the software that FNOX doesn’t • FNOX did not try and boil the ocean at the
have, and crowd them out of the market. start – instead focusing on financial and
• Products are also not particularly revolutionary – another FNOX product accounting administration software.
counterpoint to their growth plan. offering was focused, • As FNOX’s customer base has grown they’ve
enabling them to expanded their product offering each year.
grow • ARPU grown to 160Kr in Q1 2020, 37%
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results growth since 2016.
• Revenue grown at 31% CAGR since FY2015.
• FNOX has partnered with over 400 companies
who have created software that ports into
FNOX software.
FNOX has created • FNOX can connect existing customers
network effects with these companies for specific
through its product products they do not offer.
offering gap • The customer becomes more
entrenched in FNOX’s ecosystem while
the partner gets a new customer.
• Churn rate is very low.
50
Back to List
Fortnox Takeaways
FNOX is a High Quality Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
• High barriers to entry due to switching costs and Can FNOX Sustain its Market Position?
network effects. • FNOX’s moat is strong.
• FNOX’s customers use FNOX’s software for critical • FNOX benefits from network effect and switching costs.
FNOX has a moat tasks – like accounting, and inventory management. • FNOX operates in the Swedish small business and
• Become further entrenched in FNOX accounting industries, which is more niche and less
ecosystem by using 3rd party software for competitive than other international markets.
other tasks that ports into FNOX.
• FNOX set out to capture new customers, increase
product portfolio, and then upsell existing customers Can FNOX continue to grow faster than the industry?
with further services. • FNOX can continue to increase its ARPU by creating new
FNOX has laid out a simple ancillary software products.
• Customers grown from 155k in FY2016 to 313k in
plan and followed it • FNOX is more likely to capture new market share given that
FY2019.
• Multiple new products introduced and ARPU grown to their software’s value is continually bolstered by partner
companies.
160Kr in Q1 2020, 37% growth since 2016.
• FNOX can continue to incrementally expand its product
line Is FNOX poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Given market share, FNOX’s has best sense of • FNOX is in an industry that is minimally affected by Covid-19.
needs of current Swedish small businesses due to • FNOX can likely sustain its market position and continue to
FNOX has a clear runway feedback they receive. grow both its user base and ARPU.
for growth • FNOX’s revenue is recurring, and at low incremental cost • At 21.5x NTM Revenue FNOX will need to continue its fast
which has enabled gross margins >50%. growth and maintain margins – a new formidable competitor,
• Can continue to benefit from network effects as more some form of technological obsolesce, or a major breach could
partners develop software that works with FNOX make the company underperform.
software.
51
Max Schieferdecker
2,226%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQCM:KRMD
Rank: 6/104
52
Repro-Med Systems Overview
Repro-Med Systems, which operates under the name Koru LTM1 EV/EBITDA Multiple
Medical Systems, is a medical devices company that is focused
on ambulatory infusion and is based in Chester, NY. 2020 89.9x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 9.6x
0.0x 20.0x 40.0x 60.0x 80.0x 100.0x
LTM P/E 21.74x 110.20x Z
EBITDA 1.45M 4.34M
1No sell-side coverage in 2015, so LTM multiples are used 53

Repro-Med Systems Business Model
KRMD improves the lives of
• Syringe infusion system
patients around the world
designed for the self-
administration of • The Freedom Integrated Infusion 100.0%
Freedom
medicine System allows chronically-ill
System
• Tubing and needles are patients to self-administer
single use and are a source subcutaneous infusion therapy in
of recurring revenue their homes Freedom System
• It’s comprised of a syringe driver,

either the FREEDOM60 or Sales by Geography
FreedomEdge, needles (HIgH-Flo
Subcutaneous Safety Needle
16.0%
Sets), and tubing (Precision Flow
Rate Tubing)
• The system is portable, easy to 84.0%
operate, has an impeccable safety
profile, and is effective
U.S. International
• The system is sold both directly
and through distributors to
pharmacies and other home KRMD is a capital intensive business as
KRMD’s Freedom System with a Freedom60 driver infusion providers manufacturing is performed in-house
12017 figures were only for the 10 months ending 12/31/17 due to a change in the fiscal calendar of KRMD 54
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Repro-Med Systems Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Medical Device
Manufacturing
• The industry is heavily • Heavily regulated industry,
regulated by the FDA and which could in the future
The players in this industry offer other government have margin compression
agencies • Being a smaller player in a with the implementation of
support devices for a variety of
highly competitive
medical needs and issues. • Many companies already new health car policy
industry, KRMD had to and
have large research teams • Use of the products relies
did find a profitable niche
working on the profitable entirely on the demand and
and was the first to
ideas supply for certain drugs, • Ongoing shift
capitalize on the home
• There are high initial such as Hizentra® and from institutional
Market Monopolistic care market
investment costs, a high Cuvitru® care to home and
Structure Competition • The Freedom System is a
level of competition, and a • Heavy distributor alternate site care
lot cheaper, simpler, and
Market Size $45.3B1 fast rate of technological concentration, as 4
convenient than its
change in the industry distributors accounted for
Industry competitors
LSD1 • However, the Freedom 67% of FY19 sales
Growth • Partnerships with several
System is not an extremely • Move to new office in the
drug manufacturers
complicated product, and next couple years could
it is possible for copycats slow production and/or
to steal market share incur large transition costs
1https://my-ibisworld.com/us/en/industry/33451b/industry-at-a-glance
55
• KRMD used to be a microcap company with no sell-side • This is evident in the revenue
coverage and has been considered a penny stock for its entire breakdown on this slide
public life • This is likely due to the increased
• Worries that management was not trying to maximize awareness of the stock and the
shareholder value, as there was a long period of revenue promising potential for growth in
growth but stagnant profit growth Large Multiple the future
• KRMD is a one-product wonder with little ambition to expand Expansion • The initial large jump in
their offerings and end market multiples/price can be directly
correlated to the company’s first
real investor relations
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results presentation at the LD Mirco
Invitational on 6/5/19
• A clear strategic plan for the near
future was presented to investors for
the Q2 2019 conference call
Definitive • This laid out enticing financial goals
such as a $50M run rate and a gross
Growth Plan margin of 70%+ by the end of 2022
Laid Out and 20% y/y organic revenue growth
• This plan instilled confidence into
investors that creating shareholder
value was important to them
56
Back to List
Repro-Med Systems Takeaways
KRMD is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
• It operates in a niche segment within the broader Can KRMD Sustain its Advantages?
medical devices industry and has good relationships • KRMD is well liked by many in the
with many drug manufacturers that KRMD’s products health care and drug manufacturing
are designed to help administer world due to its easy-to-use
KRMD has a Moat characteristics
• It has been tangled up with lawsuits over the past
several years with a major competitor over patent • With the high price of many
issues, but most, if not all, of the decisions have gone competitors, KRMD stands out with its
KRMD’s way simpler and more cost-effective solution
• The medical world is onboard with subcutaneous over Can KRMD continue to grow?
IV treatment, as it is cheaper for everyone involved • KRMD has a very promising future given
• Soon, more medications will be able to be administered the low market penetration that it
through subcu methods currently has
• The current market is also not very penetrated • There is huge growth potential
right now, as, according to KRMD’s investor internationally that has not been
Strong Upside presentation, only 70,000 out of 270,000 (26%) conquered yet as well
patients in the U.S. are receiving immunoglobulin Is KRMD poised to continue to outperform?
Potential
therapy to treat their Primary Immunodeficiency
Diseases (PIDD)
• Even though much of its high TSR over the
past 5 years came from multiple expansion,
• Those numbers also don’t take into account
patients with Chronic Inflammatory its fast top-line growth will still allow it to
Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP), which, outperform the market (both at current
while being a smaller overall number relatively, multiples and even with some multiple
can still be treated by the Freedom System contraction)
57
Elizabeth DeSouza
2079%
5 Year TSR
CPH:CHEMM
Rank: 7/104
58
ChemoMetec Overview
ChemoMetec A/S, headquarter in Allerod, Denmark, designs, LTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
develops, and produces instruments for a range of applications
in cell counting and evaluation.
2020 66.6x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 61.0x
Stock Price 17 kr 320 kr
58.0x 60.0x 62.0x 64.0x 66.0x 68.0x
Market Cap 295.29M kr 5.04B kr
Enterprise Value 296.50M kr 4.75B kr
EV / LTM Revenue1 5.84x 24.14x
LTM P/E 97.39x 107.12x Z
Revenue 61.239M kr 175.513M kr
EBITDA 7.385M kr 61.155M kr
1NTM multiples not available

59
ChemoMetec Business Model
1
• Specially developed CHEMM specializes in

microscope and development, production, and sale
analytical technology or analytical equipment for cell
Analytical
• Instruments & counting
Equipment
disposable articles such
• Products are aimed at simplifying
as plastic cassettes and
cell analytics by combining
glass slides
technology and components to
create complete systems
• Customers are in the fields of cell
based immunotherapy, cancer,
stem cell research, drug
development, and quality control
of products such as beer and milk
• Long term relationships with
some customers, but also make
sales through their website
• Main markets are addressed in
house, but work with distributers CHEMM is a moderately capital intense business
for other markets as it produces some products, but also receives
ChemoMetec volume-calibrated single-use Via1-Cassette components from subcontractors
1Exact revenue breakdown not found, graphics taken from CHEMM 2018/2019 annual report extract
60
Low Threat
Medium Threat
ChemoMetec Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Life Science Tools &
Services
The players in this industry are
involved in drug discovery, • High quality and precision • Development of
development, and production by analytical instruments new therapies,
providing analytical tools, provided by CHEMM give including cellular
instruments, consumables, supplies, • Technology requires their customers a • Faulty equipment causing immunotherapy
and contract research services significant R&D to develop competitive advantage imprecise measurements • Allocation of
• Strict regulatory • CHEMM products help could damage brand more resources
environment immunotherapy reputation and thus for cell counting
Market • Relationships and companies achieve higher negatively impact current and cell analysis
Oligopoly and future relationships
Structure reputation are very quality and precision, within customer
important and take time to ultimately aiding them in • Concentrated customer companies
Market Size $461.97B1
build the regulatory process base in the life sciences • Push for
Industry • Geographic proximity to field digitalization &
> 10%2
Growth customers makes for automation of
strong relationships and analytical
good service processes
1 https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/sectors/industries.jhtml?tab=learn&industry=352030
2YTD
61
• In 2015, CHEMM was a small company with a limited
geographic reach and product portfolio
• Niche market with specific uses for CHEMM technology • Structural changes increasing
• Unsure how the technology would be accepted by the demand for analytical
industry equipment
• Unsure if the need for cell analytic technology of this sort • Industries CHEMM serves are
would be needed in the long run
facing increasingly strict
regulatory environments,
• Some of the uses of CHEMM software were yet to exist increasing demand for CHEMM
themselves products
Increased
EPS vs Share Price1 Demand for
• Immuno-based cell therapy is a
Return Breakdown: key growth driver for CHEMM
Products
• To capitalize on this, CHEMM
has worked to involve
themselves with customers
from the very beginning of the
development process, making
them an integral part of the end
product and ultimately the
customer’s operations
1EPS estimates not available 62

Back to List
ChemoMetec Takeaways
CHEMM is a Great Business – 4.5/5 Future Outlook
Can CHEMM Sustain its Advantages?
• CHEMM technology has found its niche in cell • Patented technology
analytics for immunotherapy • Strong relationships with customers
• The demand for their technology in this space
CHEMM has a Niche has increased over the last five years Can CHEMM continue to grow?
• At the same time, CHEMM technology could • Growing into the immunotherapy product
be applied to many other industries and fields space
• Growing number of countries approving
immunotherapies
• Margin expansion and revenue growth over the • Launch of NC-202 product has CHEMM poised
last five years show the success of CHEMM’s to continue growing revenue
business • New and updated products in the pipeline
• Very strong gross profit and EBITDA margins at will grow CHEMM revenue once released
90.38% and 34.84% respectively for FY 2019
Strong Financial (up from 85% and 12% respectively in 2015) Is CHEMM poised to continue to outperform?
Growth • Consistent topline growth over the last five • Very high PE multiple could indicate CHEMM
years, with revenue growing 55.7% in 2019 to is currently overvalued
175.51M DKK • CHEMM has not yet reached all its possible
• With such strong financial results, the CEO customers and has continued to develop new
proposed, for the first time in company history, and profitable products, making it seem likely
to issue a DKK 3 per share dividend in 2019 that they can continue to outperform
63
Owen Stimpson
2,022%
5 Year TSR
LSE:GAW
Rank: 8/104
64
Games Workshop Overview
Games Workshop Group PLC (often abbreviated as GW) is a NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
vertically integrated British manufacturer of miniature
wargames, based in Nottingham, England. Its best-known 2019
products are Warhammer Age of Sigmar and Warhammer 40,000.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Stock Price £5.02 £75.6
Market Cap £160.32M £2.47B

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x
Enterprise Value £151.91M £2.47B
PE 12.28x 39.90x
EBITDA 21.4M 90.1M
65
Games Workshop Business Model
Sales by Division
Customizable miniature
figures based on fantasy GAW is a hobby company.
18%
Miniature characters that can be
Figures collected, painted, used in • GAW’s product appeal to a specific 47%
games, and used as props in subset of the population (i.e. 34%
models. “middle class nerds”).1
• The endless collectability, painting,

Trade Retail Online
games, and models to be created
give hobbyists continued
entertainment.
Sales by Geography
• GAW’s retail stores serve as 38%
community hubs for hobbyists to 25%
come together and socialize over
their miniature figures.
• GAW is vertically integrated and 25%

11%
controls supply chain from
Sample GAW miniatures manufacturing to retail. NA Rest UK Europe
1. https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/jan/21/heroin-for-middle-class-nerds-how-warhammer-took-over-gaming-games-workshop
66
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Games Workshop Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market • Fans of games are

Oligopoly • Video games
Hobby and Structure loyal –and dedicated. • GAW has made the
have/are taking
miniatures market
Games Market Market Size ≈$1.49B1
• Scale enables
market share.
more accessible:
• Strong network
Industry GAW to innovate • Simpler game
The industry consists of LSD1 effects: the more
Growth more than its • Does not appeal
collectible games, hobby board participants a game rule format.
competitors. to youth due to
games, non-collectible has the better it • Painting
popularity of
miniatures, hobby card and - GAW games are the top two becomes as there are miniatures
video games;
dice games, and roleplaying games in the miniatures more players to play • GAW’s vertical made easier.
fanbase getting
games. market. against. integration • Cosmetic
older.
allows them to overhaul of
• High switching costs: control retail
- Fantasy Games and WizKids • Designs are
once a player has distribution. locations.
have competing products stolen and/or
but none threaten GAW’s invested time and • Widened
copied to some
grip on market share. money in one game, price point
extent by a
switching to another range of
competitor.
becomes less products.
attractive.
1. Only North America ; https://icv2.com/articles/news/view/43024/hobby-game-sales-total-1-5-billion-2018

67
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago:
• Age of Sigmar has outperformed Fantasy
• The discontinuation of GAW’s oldest game, Warhammer Fantasy Battle, and the simpler format has
Battle, will alienate existing loyal fans. And the replacement, Age of attracted new fans.
Sigmar, will fail to attract new fans.
New products have • Miniature releases across product lines
• GAW is disconnected from its fanbase – resulting in poor new been a success have been “stellar.”1
product releases. • Age of Sigmar’s best changes have been
incorporated into Warhammer 40k which
• Transition to “one-man” store model will make the stores less has improved the game.
profitable and destroy the community atmosphere.
GAW engaged with • GAW has become far more engaged with its
the fanbase fanbase through social media.
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results • GAW’s focus on quality rather than quantity of
employees proved successful.
• Focus on cutting costs by minimizing
Store model helped
expenses on salaries, rent (on offices and
GAW cut costs
stores), and mass advertising has worked:
EBIT margins have increased from 13.8% in
FY 2015 to 31.7% in FY 2019.
• GAW has begun licensing its IP which has
provided GAW with a runway for growth, and
Licensing IP almost unlimited potential upside.
• Licensing IP flows almost entirely to the
bottom line.
1. https://www.miniaturemarket.com/reviewcorner/the-games-workshop-renaissance-editorial/
68
Back to List
Games Workshop Takeaways

GAW is a High Quality Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
• High barriers to entry have given GAW a wide Can GAW Sustain its Market Position?
moat – and essentially no direct competition. • GAW’s moat is strong.
• GAW has loyal fans, benefits from network effects, • The niche nature of the industry discourages potential
GAW has a wide moat and players are prevented from trying other games new entrants.
due to high switching costs. • GAW has been the leader in fantasy miniature figures and
• Stores act as “community hubs” – fans that stop related games for 20+ years.
playing the game suffer social consequences as well.
Can GAW continue to grow faster than the industry?
• GAW has cut store costs by having less employees, • GAW’s moat impedes new competitors from competing with
GAW has become more shutdown underperforming stores, and minimized rent. them.
cost efficient • EBIT margins have increased from 13.8% in FY 2015 to • Prospective players will likely buy GAW because few
31.7% in FY 2019. alternatives are available.
• GAW’s scale enables them to innovate more than their
• New Age of Sigmar game a major success – attracting new competitors and capture more network effects.
fans, and enabling GAW to improve its core “40k” game. • Existing players will continue to purchase GAW games
• GAW has begun to leverage royalties: and products.
• Royalty income increased from £1.7 million to Is GAW poised to continue to outperform the market?
£11.4 million from FY2018 to FY2019. • GAW’s moat and efficient cost structure protects the company
GAW has created a
• Video games remain a major avenue for potential from downside.
runway for growth
growth. • Significant runway for growth in licensing GAW’s IP.
• GAW is a high quality business with a strong moat, • Licensing has already rapidly scaled rapidly, flows
efficient business operations, and a strong runway almost entirely to the bottom line, and strengthens
for future growth. GAW’s brand which helps its core miniature business –
justifies their premium multiple.
69
Max Schieferdecker
1,715%
5 Year TSR
STO:GENO
Rank: 9/104
70
Genovis Overview
Genovis is an international biotech company based in Lund, NTM EV/Sales Multiple
Sweden that develops, produces, and sells tools for developing
drugs for customers in the medical device and pharmaceutical
2020 25.4x
industries.
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 2.9x
Stock Price SEK 2.00 SEK 31.80
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
Market Cap SEK 43.69M SEK 2.08B
Enterprise Value SEK 42.15M SEK 2.02B
EV / NTM EBITDA N/A 91.91x
NTM P/E N/A 213.71x Z
EBITDA -23.55M 17.09M
71
Genovis Business Model
Sales by Category
• Enzymes with unique GENO helps bring safe and
properties that can be effective medicine to the market
16.0%
used as biological • GENO talks to drug developers
tools to support the and discovers new needs for
SmartEnzymes 84.0%
research and enzymes, which they then
development of develop
complex
pharmaceuticals • Genovis enzymes are used in Parent Company Subsidiaries
many applications throughout
the drug manufacturers path to
Sales by Geography
market, including:
• Initial screening process 23.5%
for clone selection
• Sample preparation for
analysis of antibody 76.5%
binding capacity
• Monitoring and Sweden Other Countries
development of the
manufacturing process
GENO is a capital intensive business as
A couple of GENO’s flagship products, FabRICATOR and • Quality control during production is done in house
GlycINATOR production
72
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Genovis Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Life Science Tools
The players in this industry offer

analytical tools, instruments, • High-quality products and a
consumables and supplies that are robust patent portfolio • High currency risk due to
used in drug discovery, development, • No true competitors most sales taking place
and production. that offer comparable outside of Sweden
technology • Many members of the • Increased need
• High levels of expertise • Great customer relationships Board and senior for quality
within the biotech field allow for close collaboration management, including analyses earlier
Market Monopolistic are required to break in and insights into new needs the chair, do not own in the
Structure Competition
• High up-front R&D costs and trends shares of GENO development of
Market Size $51.5B1 • More precise results in a • Incentives may not biological drugs
shorter period of time be aligned with
Industry
HSD1 • Strong supply chain that those of
Growth
allows for one-day delivery shareholders
of enzymes
1https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/life-science-tools-market
73
• GENO added more staff to their S&M
• Extreme micro-cap company ($5.27M) that is based in and
team around the world
traded in Sweden
Increased Sales • There was a large increase in
• Not a lot of awareness about what the company does technical marketing materials for
and Marketing
and its upside potential due to little to no marketing conferences and customer meetings
Presence
done by the company, both to investors and • Lead to increased knowledge of
potential customers the firm from outsiders
• Stagnating path to profitability in the past couple of years
• In Q3 2019, GENO received an
order for SEK 13M from a global
pharmaceutical company
Consensus vs Results Very Large
• The enzymes are to be used in
Return Breakdown: Customer in the manufacturing process of
Engaged a biological drug
• This order helped catapult GENO’s
growth rate
• In April 2020, GENO acquired San
Diego based QED Bioscience for SEK
20M in cash
Timely
• QED has a variety of Coronavirus
Acquisition
research tools, which are currently
in very high demand, in its product
portfolio
74
Back to List
Genovis Takeaways
GENO is a Very Good Business – 4.5/5 Future Outlook
Can GENO Sustain its Advantages?
• GENO’s products mainly compete with older • Given the high barriers to entry of the
technology industry, GENO likely can sustain its
• Higher quality results in a shorter amount of advantages
time • If, however, competitive, similar
GENO has a Moat • A partnership was formed in 2019 with one of the products do enter the market, the
largest players in the industry, Thermo Fisher advantages may not be sustained
Scientific (TMO)
• Focus on improving quality analyses Can GENO continue to grow?
• Potentially a target for an acquisition by TMO • GENO is still in its infancy when it comes
to growth
• There is a lot of upside potential given the
increased need for high-quality analysis
• In 2019, GENO expanded their premises and built a early in the development process
brand-new production lab
• Provides GENO with the ability to have better Is GENO poised to continue to outperform?
quality control throughout the supply chain • Although multiple expansion has played a
Substantial Capacity
• Allows for an even more agile response to the large role in the past, the high growth
for Future Growth needs of their customers
figures will continue to be present
• These facilities are key for accomplishing their goals of
organic sales growth > 25% and 3 new product launches • These high figures will be due to both
annually organic growth and inorganic growth from
acquisitions (QED)
75
Owen Stimpson
1,678%
5 Year TSR
ENXTPA:XIL
Rank: 10/104
76
Xilam Overview
Xilam is a French production company that specializes in LTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
animated television series and feature films. It creates, produces,
and distributes children’s and family entertainment content in 2D 2019
and 3D formats for TV, film, and digital media platforms.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x
PE 6.54x 27.66x
Revenue 11.3M 22.3M
EBITDA 10.7M 26.7M
77
Xilam Business Model
XIL is a fully integrated Sales by Division
New Creating new and original animation studio
Production animated productions. 22%
• Creates original content and
Licensing distribution uses few third-party rights
rights of past productions agreements.
Catalogue • XIL prices to cover the
that are in the company 77%
catalogue. majority of production costs,
and then realizes extra profit New Productions Catalogue
through licenses the rights.
• Controls the entire Sales by Geography
production process giving 5%
them a tight grip on costs. 29%
• Distributes the content to
39%
television and major SvoD
platforms.
• Continues to distribute past 27%
productions from the
catalogue and uses presale France Europe Americas Asia-East-Africa
agreements to finance new
Sample Xilam 2019 productions. productions.
High capital required for creating new productions; XIL is a
capital-intensive business.
78
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Xilam Competitive Analysis High Threat

• A major
• Long production production
Movie & TV Market
Oligopoly cycles means high
• Scale enables flop can
Structure XIL to continue • Leverage increasingly
Production start up capital is
to innovate.
damage
lies with content
Market Size 60.8B1 required. reputation.
• XIL has retained creators, not
Industry • Human capital distributors.
Operators in this industry MSD2 top talent.
Growth requirements are • Distributors,
produce and distribute movies • Strong • Rise of
high; getting talent such as streaming has
and television content that is can be difficult in production Netflix, move
sold/licensed to distributors, • In the US, five companies history (i.e. begun to
many markets. all production
such as streaming networks or hold 77% of market share Oscar commoditize
• Brand matters: can’t in house.
cable networks. for all movie production. nominated distribution.
secure contracts
films).
without production • Industry
• XIL does not have the • XIL has • Content is becoming
history and brand but trends away
immense scale of the biggest relationships globalized in tandem
can’t create from
studios but is large for a with major with distribution.
production history animation /
niche player distributors (i.e.
and build brand long-form
• Less than 1% market without contracts. Netflix).
video.
share.
1. Only USA; IBIS World

2. Average of TV and Movie Production industry growth rates of 6.0% and 2.4%, respectively. 79
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • Original content revenue has increased
• XIL is a niche animation studio but has, and will not, land consistent 125% from 6.9M in FY2014 to 15.5M in
major new production contracts. FY2019.
• In 2015, XIL secured contracts with
• Long-form tv is dying out and being replaced by short-form content XIL has landed
Nickelodeon, Disney, Cartoon Network;
such as YouTube; demand for XIL’s films will stagnate or decrease. major contracts
in 2019, with Netflix and Amazon.
• XIL’s 13m FY 2014 revenue is 26% lower than FY 2001.
• I Lost My Body Netflix film won critical
• XIL will be squeezed out by major movie and animation studios, acclaim: first animated Grand Prix winner
and distributors will integrate vertically to control the production at Cannes Film Festival.
process.
• Rise of streaming has begun to commoditize
distribution and made content more
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results Demand for content valuable, as it is the differentiating factor.
is greater than ever
• Content is being used by major players (i.e.
Apple) to minimize churn.
• Demand for content, especially for streaming,

has outpaced ability to create it – solidifying
consistent demand for XIL’s work.
New content • Industry has globalized giving XIL more
distribution industry access to international markets which
structure benefits XIL represented 73% of total sales in FY2019 (up
from 56% in FY2017).
• YouTube is a new catalogue revenue stream
which grew 17% from FY2018-FY2019.
80
Back to List
Xilam Takeaways
Xilam is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
• Strong barriers to entry impede new animation Can XIL Sustain its Market Position?
studios from opening. • XIL’s moat is strong.
• Immense capital and experience is required to open a • The capital requirements and the challenge to secure
XIL has a moat
new studio – impeding new entrants. contracts without production history impedes new
• Content quality reputation must be built over time – but entrants.
without it , it’s difficult to secure new contracts. • XIL has greatly improved its reputation with the
• XIL has secured major new contracts as streaming critical and commercial success of recent productions.
companies fight to offer the highest quality of content. Can XIL continue to grow faster than the industry?
• XIL has capitalized on the globalization of content • Legal changes made by the EU will enable XIS to grow
XIL has benefited from
consumption; international sales now represent 73% of faster than the industry:
industry structure
total sales. • By Jan 2021, all platforms in France must spend at
changes
• Animation is also particularly well suited for global least 25% in French production, of which 50% must
consumption given the ease to “redub” the be independent production, like XIS.
voiceover in animation. • 30% of content on platforms in the EU must be
• As more major contracts are signed, XIL’s catalogue European origin.
increases in size and value. Is XIL poised to continue to outperform the market?
• YouTube is a new revenue stream for XIL’s catalogue. • Streaming wars show no sign of slowing down as new
• The critical acclaim of XIL’s recent content will increase platforms continue to launch (i.e. HBO Max).
XIL has created a both demand and value for their content going forward. • XIL content library will also become more valuable,
runway for growth • Demand increase also magnified by “streaming increasing catalogue revenue.
wars.” • Aforementioned legal changes, enhanced reputation, and
• Will likely offset some of the high capital required to contacts will drive original production revenue.
produce content which has historically depressed • 40x FCF valuation means multiple may contract if growth
cash flow not fully realized.
81
Max Schieferdecker
1,646%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQGM:FIVN
Rank: 11/104
82
Five9 Overview
Five9 is a leading provider of intelligent cloud software for
NTM EV/Sales Multiple
virtual contact centers based in San Ramon, CA.
2020 15.0x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 2.1x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x
Market Cap $286.06M $6.28B
Enterprise Value $262.17M $6.18B
Revenue 128.87M 328.01M
EBITDA -13.76M 17.2M
83
Lululemon Business Model
Sales by Geography
Five9 helps organizations 8.1%

maintain customer
• Comprehensive, end-to- relationships more effectively
Cloud CRM end cloud software
Solution solution for virtual • A contact center is a central
contact centers point from which all
customer interactions across
various channels are
managed
• FIVN’s virtual contact
centers allow companies to
perform all the actions that
legacy contact centers
91.9%
perform and more, while
allowing its employees to
work remotely
United States International
• This greatly reduces
the costs that come
along with having a FIVN is a capital light business as software
large, physical center companies do not require large CapEx
Visual showing how Five9 operates
84
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Five9 Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Contact Center Software
Players in this industry offer software
that empowers organizations to build
and enhance relationship with their
• Rapid deployment and • Adherence to FCC
customers and prospects by providing
support of their regulations is mandatory as
effective communication across • Customers have
comprehensive solution FIVN is technically a
various channels, such as voice, video, grown to expect
web, chat, mobile applications, and • Extensive partner telecommunications service
• Low barriers to entry as a seamless
social media ecosystem that includes provider
result of little customer service
Oracle, Salesforce, and • Security breaches could
specialization required to across many
Microsoft, among others result in a reputation hit as
Market Pure enter the market channels due to
• Established market well as litigation
Structure Competition • Relatively low switching the rapid
presence and a large, • FIVN does not control the
costs adoption of
Market Size $23.4B1 diverse customer base of operations of the 4 data mobile devices
over 2,000 organizations centers where the servers
Industry and social media
> 10%1 • The platform is reliable, that run their solution are
Growth
secure, and highly scalable housed
1https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/contact-center-software-market-257044641
85
• Top line growth rate had peaked in 2011, and since then it has
been declining rapidly, despite increased sales and marketing • Revenue growth never rebounded
to its 2011 peak, but it did stay
spend relatively constant over the past 5
• There were no signs that the growth it was once years at around 25%
achieving when its technology was considered • EBITDA margins have been
innovative was coming back anytime soon Steady Path to
increasing, however, as it is now
• Future growth plans and business expenditures seemed Success positive, though still low at 5%
extremely unrealistic, EBITDA margins were negative and • This is due to more long-term
FIVN was predicting 20+% margins without a clear plan contracts which bring in
revenue but require less
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results SG&A expenses
• As the channels that that are used
prevalently in customer service have
expanded tremendously as the social
media world has expanded, the need
Digitization of to manage these channels efficiently
the Customer has also emerged
Relations • FIVN was ahead of its time in its
Industry early days, and that allowed the
company to capitalize on this
general industry shift that has
become much more prevalent in
the past 5 years
86
Back to List
Five9 Takeaways
FIVN is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
• Despite not operating in a very high barrier to Can FIVN Sustain its Advantages?
entry business, FIVN has established itself as a • FIVN is one of the early players in the
comprehensive and reliable platform in an industry, and thus has built a great
extremely competitive industry reputation that it can capitalize on in the
• It is also the only pure-play public cloud contact future
FIVN has a Moat in a provider Can FIVN continue to grow?
Growing Industry • As more companies look to move to the cloud for • FIVN operates in a relatively untapped
their contact center solutions, FIVN is always going to market that offers great value to its
be in the conversation for many customers
• FIVN already has many large and recognizable • Top-line will continue to grow as the
customers and partners that it boasts to cement its industry becomes the standard rather than
credibility in an ever-expanding industry the exception
• Despite having never recorded a profit, FIVN is on the Is FIVN poised to continue to outperform?
verge of breaking that cycle
• Given the extreme role multiple expansion
• Revenue has shown tremendous organic growth
played in its prior outperformance, FIVN will
figures which has resulted in its first (although low)
operating profits in FY18 and FY19
likely not be able to sustain its current
Promising Financial valuation of a high-teens EV/sales in the long
• Plenty of room for margin expansion as well
Profile run (comps are high single digits)
given the low incremental costs that comes with
additional clients • Revenue growth and margin expansions will
• There is $209M of convertible senior notes on the likely counteract that multiple contraction in
balance sheet, but that is manageable given that may the short-run, however, and FIVN can and
not even need to be paid back likely will continue to outperform
87
Owen Stimpson
1,442%
5 Year TSR
ASX:JIN Rank: 12/104
88
Jumbo Interactive Overview In Australian (AUD) Dollars
Jumbo Interactive sells lotteries tickets on behalf of lotteries

through its website. The company is involved in the sale of
official government and charity lotteries through digital 2019
platforms; and sale of its SaaS digital lottery platform.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x
PE 47.78x 26.98x
EBITDA 1.98M 36.55M
89
Jumbo Interactive Business Model
Sales by Geography
Operates OzLotteries.com,
Online
an online lottery platform
Lottery JIN enables lotteries to sell online.
that connects lotteries
Ticket Selling
with buyers.
• OzLotteries.com is a platform for
Online SaaS software that Australian lotteries to sell tickets
Lottery enables lotteries to sell digitally.
100%
Software tickets online. • JIN has best in class-software
and millions of customers Australia
already on the site – allowing
partner lotteries to grow and
sell more tickets. Sales by Division
• ≈20% take rate. 2%
• JIN’s SaaS business will enable

lotteries - from around the world -
to build their digital business.
• Revenue not expected until
FY2021. 98%
Internet Lotteries Other
Sample OzLotteries.com page
JIN is a digital, capital light business
90
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Jumbo Interactive Competitive Analysis High Threat

• Industry is
concentrated – • Losing a
Market
Oligopoly getting market share contract with a
Structure • Australian lottery
in the online ticket major lottery.
Australian Market Size 7B1
• JIN’s scale gives Industry has
reselling segment superior data which • Lottery
Lottery Industry requires a contract decides become more
Industry enables:
LSD1 with a major lottery. consolidated: Two
Industry firms primarily Growth to start
• Lower of the four biggest
operate lotteries and sell • Regulations their
marketing lotteries - Tabcorp
lottery tickets. A lottery is a impede new own
spend. and Tatts Group –
prize draw that players pay to lotteries from digital
• Two biggest Australian • More effective merged in 2017.
enter, with winners drawn starting. platform.
lotteries estimated to have innovation. • Online gambling
randomly by lot. Firms that 70% market share. • JIN has multi- • New regulations
operate lotto-style games and has become
- JIN has contracts with year being enacted.
football pools are also included • Cash on balance sheet increasingly
both (Tabcorp and contracts • Other forms of
in the industry. allows JIN to legalized:
Lotterywest). with both gambling (i.e.
major innovate/invest when • Represents a
• JIN competes with the digital sports betting)
lotteries. an opportunity arises. growth
apps of the major lotteries: become more
opportunity
Lotterywest.com and • Many firms do not popular.
for JIN.
thelott.com. want to enter given
the perceived
negative PR.
1. https://www.ibisworld.com/au/industry/lotteries/661/
91
In Australian (AUD) Dollars

The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • New software has created a better
• Skeptical of changes to core OzLotteries.com website and app. customer experience and more customers:
• Took high development expenses to make “major upgrade to
• 761,863 active customers in FY
software.”
from 437,540 in FY 2018.
• Jackpot sizes, a key driver of revenue, are going down. • Higher transactional capacity.
• Lottery players are older which is another headwind to • Syndicates feature a success – growing
growth. from 17% to 31% of sales.
Software upgrades
• Syndicate customers also have a
• Expansion efforts so far have not been promising have been a major
27% higher average lifetime value.
• Expansion to German market lacks clear thesis. success
• New Jumbopets.com website (sells pet food) demonstrated • Essentially outsources CAC and
lack of focus. outperformed due to social nature.
• Software platform captures more data:
• Helped lower CAC from $17.28 to
$13.81 and increase customer
spend from $371.13 to $385.44.
• Created SaaS opportunity.
• Jackpots do drive sales but revenue has
Jackpot Sizes grown at a 17.4% CAGR from FY2015 to
fluctuate – FY2019 – absorbing jackpot size
fluctuations.
• There is a clear opportunity: only 7% of the
SaaS expansion world’s lottery tickets are sold online.
strategy makes sense
• It’s directly related to JIN’s core business.
92
Back to List
Jumbo Interactive Takeaways In Australian (AUD) Dollars
Jumbo Interactive is a High Quality Business – 5/5 Future Outlook

• JIN has contracts with both major Australian Can JIN Sustain its Market Position?
lotteries – and has maintained strong and
• JIN’s moat is strong.
successful relationships with them.
• Regulations and market concentration impede new
JIN has a wide moat • Tatts Group owns 13% of JIN, underscoring
entrants.
their commitment.
• Many companies hesitant about entering the gambling
• Government regulations and licensing restricts new
space for perceived PR issues.
entrants.
• New software has lowered marketing expenses, Can JIN continue to grow faster than the industry?
increased customer spend, and increased total • JIN, due to its contracts with both major lotteries,
JIN has made important customers. essentially has a monopoly on 3rd party online Australian
investments in its core • Enabled more transactional capacity so JIN can better lottery tickets (lotteries have their own digital platforms).
business exploit large jackpots when they happen. • JIN’s scale enables data advantages that will continue to lower
their marketing costs, attract new users, and increase user
• Created a new SaaS opportunity - potential major
spend.
stream of revenue (but has not yet been implemented)
• JIN’s SaaS business provides a clear runway for growth.
• Major potential opportunity: size of global lottery
ticket market is $445B but only 7% of tickets are Is JIN poised to continue to outperform the market?
sold online. • JIN’s core business is extremely consistent:
• Data collected from customers can help JIN improve its • Lottery ticket sales are actually slightly countercyclical.
JIN’s SaaS business has core OzLotteries website and lower its marketing spend. • Despite jackpot sizes fluctuating each year, JIN has only
created a runway for had 3 years of revenue decline since 2000.
• Very little incremental costs.
growth
• Gambling regulations are generally becoming less • IN’s SaaS business provides a runway for growth which will
restrictive which can bolster the opportunity: also improve its core business by increasing data collection.
• Just six states allow online lotteries, but all six • At 25x PE, JIN trades at ≈ market multiples despite lower risk
have legalized the practice in the last six years. and a strong growth profile.
93
Max Schieferdecker
1,433%
5 Year TSR
XTRA:HYQ
Rank: 13/104
94
Hypoport Overview
Hypoport is a holding company based in Lübeck, Germany, that NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
has a portfolio of technology companies that focus on the
credit, real estate, and insurance industries. 2020 43.3x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 9.9x
Stock Price €25.50 €398.00
0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x 50.0x
Market Cap €155.29M €2.51B
Enterprise Value €158.17M €2.65B
NTM P/E 19.65x 82.08x Z
Revenue 138.98M 337.24M
95
Hypoport Business Model
Primary Products Context 0.3%
Sales by Category
• B2B web-based credit HYQ digitalizes the financial

platform, EUROPACE institution industry 12.5% 41.4%
Credit • Sub-marketplaces and • It specializes as a property financing 14.9%
Platform distribution companies intermediary and is expanding its
that are tailored to value chain more into the insurance
individual target groups 30.9%
and real estate sectors
Credit Platform Private Clients Real Estate Platform
• Companies focused on the • The 2 major subsidiaries that Insurance Platform Holding
Private brokerage of residential account for a lot of HYQ’s revenues
Clients mortgage finance products are EUROPACE in the credit platform Sales by Geography
for customers segment and Dr. Klein in the private
1.7%
clients segment
• Companies that offer • EUROPACE is Germany’s
Real services related to the leading transaction platform
Estate sale, valuation, financing, for mortgage finance, building
Platform and management of finance and personal loans
residential properties 98.3%
• Dr. Klein distributes mortgage Germany Other
• Companies that provide finance and other financial
Insurance sales and administrative products to consumers
Platform platforms and distribution • Revenue is derived differently by HYQ is a capital light business as FinTech
support services each subsidiary businesses are not manufacturing heavy
96
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Hypoport Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
FinTech

technological solutions to common
financial necessities such as payments, • Not overly concentrated in
loan issuance, and insurance. one area
• The heavy reliance on the
• Able to offer
mortgage industry makes
• Existing players have a multiple services
HYQ susceptible to
sizable amount of under the same • More people are
macroeconomic downturns
Market Perfect affiliated vendors on their company buying homes in
Structure Competition platforms that are difficult • Potential conflict of interest
• Strong reputation for Germany
to replicate between subsidiaries could
quality
Market Size $200B1 have a negative affect on
• First mover in a lot of the the business as a whole
Industry areas it operates in (like
> 10%1
Growth credit platforms)
1https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-fintech-market-value
97
• In December 2015, HYQ was added to
Included in an the German Small-Cap-Index (SDAX)
Index • This increased volume and
• Micro cap stock with not a lot investor awareness increased investor interest
• Those analysts that were following the business were
• Throughout the past 5 years, HYQ has
not predicting extremely high growth made 7 acquisitions which have
expanded offerings and grown revenue
substantially
• In June 2016, NKK Programm
Services was acquired, which
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results greatly expanded the insurance
segment
Several
• In 2017, 3 more acquisitions were
Accretive made with the intention of
Acquisitions bolstering the insurance segment
• In 2018, FIO Systems and Value
were acquired, which resulted in
the launch of the Real Estate
Platform segment
• In June 2018, ASC Assekuranz-
Service center was acquired, which
helped bolster insurance revenues
98
Back to List
Hypoport Takeaways
HYQ is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
Can HYQ Sustain its Advantages?
• Hypoport is a key player in digitalizing the
financial services industry in Germany, especially
• Although HYQ’s competitive advantages
in the real estate subvertical
are not particularly strong, it should be
able to sustain them
• EUROPACE is the leader in its space and Dr.
• In particular the first mover advantage
HYQ has a Moat Klein is still expanding its already large
footprint
is key due to the established platforms it
already has
• So many financial players already use HYQ’s
platforms, and further acquisitions are only
bolstering the offering as a whole Can HYQ continue to grow?
• HYQ is in the process of scaling its
acquired businesses and there are also
strong industry tailwinds that will likely
• Net inward migration, increased life expectancy, propel future growth
and more one-person households are all driving up
• However, this is somewhat limited given
demand for homes, property prices, and mortgage
the impression that HYQ is confined to
financing business
Strong Real Estate Germany indefinitely
• In addition to those in the past (which will also
Industry Tailwinds in likely continue into the future), lower interest
Germany Is HYQ poised to continue to outperform?
rates due to COVID-19 macro adjustments are
seeing more people surging to buy • Given the large multiple expansion that has
• More home sales leads to more volume on HYQ’s taken place in the past, it is unlikely that
financing marketplaces HYQ will continue to outperform despite
the tailwinds
99
Elizabeth DeSouza
1320%
5 Year TSR
AIM:BOO
Rank: 14/104
100
Boohoo group plc Overview
Boohoo group , through its subsidiaries, is an online fashion
retailer that designs, sources, markets, and sells clothing,
shoes, accessories, and beauty products, based in Manchester,
England. 2020 30.6x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 13.9x
0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x
Shares Outstanding 1.12B 1.16B
P/E 25.45x 55.42x Z
Revenue £195.4M £1234.9M
EBITDA £16.6M £107.6M
101
Boohoo Business Model
Sales by Brand
BOO brands target 16-40 year
• Clothing, primarily for 8.0% 1.5%
old “fashion-conscious”
women, but some
consumers
brands carry a men's
Apparel • BOO has 7 brands that are 48.6%
line
differentiated by message,
• Shoes & accessories 41.8%
appeal, price-point, and
• Beauty products
target age-group
boohoo PrettyLittleThing
• Women’s wear options in a Nasty Gal Other
variety of styles and sizes
• BOO designs, sources, Sales by Geography
markets and sells its 8.4%
products
21.3% 55.0%
• Sales are made directly to
consumers via brand
websites 15.3%
• Major marketing focus on UK Rest of Europe USA Rest of world
social media and the use of
Boohoo brands are known for their fashion- social media “influencers” to
increase sales and brand BOO is a capital light business, as manufacturing
forward, low-cost clothing items
awareness is outsourced.
102
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Boohoo Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Internet & Direct
Marketing Retail
The players in this industry offer retail • BOO brands have

services, primarily on the internet. reasonably priced clothing,
• Retail is shifting
making it accessible to a • Failure to keep up with the
away from fast
wide customer base latest trends and styles can
• There are no material fashion toward
• BOO brands, especially adversely impact BOO sales
barriers to entry in this more sustainable
industry boohoo, Nasty Gal, and • Failure to respond to practices
Market Perfect PrettyLittleThing have sustainability concerns, and
• Brand recognition is • Increased
Structure Competition brand recognition and environmental and labor
important, but not concern for the
following abuse in the supply chain
Market Size $2.86T1 imperative impacts of fast
• Customer base resilient to could damage BOO
fashion on the
Industry economic changes, giving reputation and sales
> 10%2 environment
Growth BOO some cushioning
from economic cycles
1https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/sectors/industries.jhtml?tab=learn&industry=255020
103
2 FY 2019
• In 2015, BOO made a number of expensive investments for • Major acquisitions of Nasty Gal and
future growth and did not stand out significantly from PrettyLittleThing in 2017, which
competitors now combine for about 50% of BOO
• BOO brands operate exclusively online, while many of revenue
their competitors had physical storefronts in addition to Key Acquisitions • In 2019 acquired three new brands:
online retail MissPap, Karen Millen, and Coast
• Made investments in their website and warehouse • Increased market share and
extensions, as well as developed an app portfolio diversification with these
• BOO had just recently gone public in 2014 and was brand acquisitions
founded in 2006, making it relatively new to its peers
• BOO sees the importance of social
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results media in marketing, so they
invested using influencers as brand
reps, which increases brand
awareness and sales
• Investment in BOO websites and
Good
apps has aligned with the shift from
Investments in person shopping to online &
increased their sales
• Warehouse investments have also
proven themselves, as they have
allowed BOO to keep pace with
customer demand
104
Back to List
Boohoo Takeaways
BOO is a Okay Business – 3.5/5 Future Outlook
Can BOO Sustain its Advantages?
• Despite the shift toward sustainability, BOO’s target • BOO has little differentiation from its
market is more focused on new fashion items than their competitors, offering similar clothing, at
impact on the environment similar prices and similar quality
• BOO’s main type of customer is resilient to economic • Brand loyalty doesn’t benefit retailers like
cycles and will continuously and somewhat regularly BOO, but customer service is key
Strong Customer make purchases from their brands
Base & Marketing Can BOO continue to grow?
• BOO brands appeal to a wide range of people outside of • BOO launched BooMan and can continue to
their target audience for more sporadic purchases expand into the men’s wear market
• BOO knows how to market to its most profitable type of • Also launched a “sustainable” line to try to
customer by using social media and social media appeal to those concerned for the
influencers to showcase their offerings environment
• Different sizing options have yet to be fully
targeted (plus sized, petite)
• BOO has had consistent topline growth over the last 5 Is BOO poised to continue to outperform?
years, but it is expected to slow over the next three years • BOO has better margins than competitors and a
• Gross margins have been around 55% over the last 5 large customer base that will continue to grow
Growth & Industry years and EBITDA margins have stayed at around 9%, their revenue
Success which is about industry average and higher than some of
its main competitors such as ASOS • Outperformance in the long run depends on if
• EPS has generally outperformed analyst estimates over consumers move away from fast fashion in
the last 5 years favor of sustainable brands & if environmental
regulation will be increased in the industry
105
Elizabeth DeSouza
1282%
5 Year TSR
ASX:PET
Rank: 15/104
106
Phoslock Environmental Technologies Overview
Phoslock Environmental Technologies, based out of Melbourne, LTM EV/Revenue Multiple2
Australia, designs, engineers, and implements solutions for
water treatment related projects.
2020 12.4x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 12.3x
12.2x 12.3x 12.3x 12.4x 12.4x 12.5x
Market Cap 8.68M AUD 318.75M AUD
Enterprise Value 10.91M AUD 304.47M AUD
EV / LTM EBITDA2 N/A 72.38x
P/E3 N/A 96.24x Z
Revenue 839K AUD 24.536M AUD
EBITDA (1.327)M AUD 3.894M AUD
1NTM multiples not available

2EBITDA was negative for FY2015 107
3EPS was negative for FY2015 and 0 for FY2019
PET Business Model
Primary Products Context Sales by Geography
• Phoslock binds free 10.6%

PET offers chemical and 3.2%
phosphate into an inert engineering solutions for water 8.7%
Phoslock mineral that becomes bodies with excess nutrients and
part of the water’s other pollutants
natural sediments • Phoslock and Zeolite 88.9%
respectively bind with Canada, Brazil, U.S. Europe/ UK
• Zeolite binds nitrogen phosphate and nitrogen,
Zeolite & Australia/ NZ China
• Bacteria improves the compounds that cause toxic
Bacteria
quality of water algae growth in water, and
neutralize them Sales by Category
1.0%
• In addition to supplying the 3.6%
product, PET engineers its
implementation
• PET licenses technology to
Brazilian company HidroScience 95.4%
and American company SePRO, External Sales Inter-segment Sales Other
each accounting for 35% of
international sales
• Sales and licensees agents in 8 PET is a capital intensive business with two large
Diagram showing how Phoslock works countries and offices in 4 manufacturing centers for their products
108
Low Threat
Medium Threat
PET Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed in
the Industry
Environmental & Facilities
Services
The players in this industry produce • Increased
goods and services to measure, awareness and
prevent, limit and minimize or correct concern for the
environmental damage to water, air • Significant investment • Phoslock, PET’s leading • Bigger companies environment
and soil, as well as problems related to in R&D needed in this product, is a patented could develop a better • Increased
waste, noise, and eco-systems space technology solution to phosphate governmental
• There are some very • Strong relationship with the remediation and efforts to combat
large companies in the Chinese government has eclipse Phoslock and slow the effects
industry who have more given PET better corporate • PET relies heavily on of climate change
Market Monopolistic
resources and reach, but tax rates, special allowances, the Chinese • Concerted effort by
smaller companies still and long term contracts government for their companies to be
Market Size ~$640B1 enter by specializing in • PET provides both the revenues, which may more
certain environmental product and the engineering back them into a environmentally
Industry
MSD2 services solutions to deploy it corner conscientious,
Growth
driven by consumer
concerns over
climate change
1 http://www.tradeforum.org/The-Environmental-Services-Business-Big-and-Growing/
2
109
https://www.capitaliq.com/CIQDotNet/Lists/KeyStats.aspx?listObjectId=100885225 (Total Revenue 1 year growth)
• Chairman of the Board, Laurence
• In 2015, PET was a very small company operating at a loss Freedman pioneered relationship with
internationally China after Xi Jinping took office, by
• Total revenue in 2015 was about 839 thousand AUD and creating a relationship with Chinese
they operated at a loss of about 3 million AUD company BHZQ
• Small segments of revenue in Australia, Europe, and • BHZQ is privately owned by two larger
North America, but no major customers Relationship companies, which are ultimately owned
• Poor conversion of bids to sales, raising uncertainty with China by the Chinese government
about whether PET can grow and become profitable • The managing director of BHZQ now
serves on the PET board and has invested
personal money in the company2
EPS Results
Return Breakdown1: • PET also integrated Chinese engineers
into their business, further strengthening
their relationship
• In 2019, China was PET’s largest
customer, generating almost 90% of their
revenue
• China has massive amounts of money to
spend on environmental remediation as
Xi Jinping has “declared war” on pollution
• Investing heavily in this relationship,
seems to indicate that PET sees great
opportunity in China alone
1Revenue used because EBITDA was negative in 2015
2Interview where Mr. Freedman speaks on relationship with China https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5741615894001 110
Back to List
PET Takeaways
PET is an Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
Can PET Sustain its Advantages?
• PET’s Phoslock technology is patented
• The Phoslock product has proven its • Relationship with the Chinese government, which makes
effectiveness and is very relevant to current up almost 90% of their revenue, remains strong with
environmental concerns future contracts and projects
Niche Product • There is a market for the product globally Can PET continue to grow?
• PET engineers solutions to apply their • Water scarcity and the importance of clean water will drive
products and tailors them to the needs of the the need for PET technologies
specific body of water • Many bodies of water PET could target for contracts
• Growth plan not entirely clear, but PET very recently won
contracts in WA and NJ
• Laurence Freedman has set his sights on fully Is PET poised to continue to outperform?
infiltrating the Chinese market • P/E is currently at 51.9x, way above the market
• China has the second largest GDP in the world • High topline growth and high gross margins in the last three
and major water pollution issues, making it an years
Concentrated ideal target for PET • Downgraded its revenue guidance for FY 2020, causing stock
Geographic Focus price to plummet
• Depending on one market carries high risk
• Big opportunity for growth, if they take advantage of
• PET has slow growth in other countries
geographical expansion
• EBITDA has been negative every year until FY • Phoslock technology, small size, and lack of debt make it a
2019 good acquisition target
111
Max Schieferdecker
1,281%
5 Year TSR
ASX:CLV
Rank: 16/104
112
Clover Overview
Clover Corporation is a nutrients manufacturer based in NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
Altona1, Victoria, Australia, that focuses on refining and
encapsulating bioactives2 and operates in the market under the
2020 20.9x
brand of its subsidiary, Nu-Mega.
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 6.2x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x
NTM P/E 10.47x 28.90x Z
EBITDA 574K 13.67M
1Just outside of Melbourne

2Definition: chemicals, chemical molecules and microbes (microscopic organisms) that have some biological effect on our bodies 113
3FY ends 7/31
Clover Corp Business Model
Sales by Category
• Powdered forms of CLV optimizes the health and
nutritional liquids that development of adults, infants,
and children 34.0%
Encapsulated are designed to be
Powders incorporated into the • Takes high-value oils, like Omega- 66.0%
food and beverages of 3s and Omega-6s found in Tuna,
other companies and turn them into powders
• Those powders enables the oils Tuna Powder Other
to be included into different food

and beverage products, such as Sales by Geography
drinks, gummies, and infant 5.1%
formula
• This is done without 7.8%
including any of the bad
50.5%
smell and taste
36.6%
• This allows consumers to take
their daily dose of those high-
Australia / New Zealand Asia Europe Americas
value oils in one sitting
• The most common means CLV is a capital light business as manufacturing is
of consumption in all done in house
A couple of applications that CLV powders can included in markets is infant formula
114
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Clover Corp Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
Functional Food in the Industry
Ingredients

bioactive compounds that can be used • CLV has the only vegan
in the manufacturing of functional product and the only organic
food products. product on the marketplace
• Very difficult product to • Much business comes
make • Cheap access to a new state-
internationally, so
of-the-art manufacturing
• Unique product currency risk is present
facility • Increased
that requires quite • The inability to serve all
Market • Mainly competing against awareness about
Oligopoly specific production of the demand that they
Structure smaller, more fragmented dietary issues
technology and are experiencing could
processes players
Market Size $77.77B1 harm their reputation
• High up-front costs • Very few offer and stunt their growth
Industry powdered oils, and
MSD1
Growth CLV is the only
publicly traded player
1https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/functional-food-ingredients-market-9242020.html
115
• In March 2018, a critical review,
driven by the Nu-Mega Ingredients
• Nano-cap company located in Australia R&D team, describing the benefits of
• Unimpressive margins with inconsistent earnings and an high DHA1 fish oil was published in
extreme underperformance of expectations in FY14 the globally prestigious journal of
(A$0.01 vs. A$0.04 EPS) Scientifically Food Science and Nutrition
Supported • It was the first major review of DHA
Study was research studies in nearly 20 years
Published • It focused on 113 studies on the effects
of high DHA published since 2000
Consensus vs Results • The studies showed positive
Return Breakdown: DHA outcomes for the heart,
brain, and other parts of the
body
• High sales growth in higher

population countries outside of their
Strong base ANZ market, especially in China
Expansion into • There was also significant growth in
New Markets their U.S. sales mainly caused by
product line expansion into nutritional
food and beverages
1Docosahexaenoic acid - an essential fatty acid that cannot be manufactured in the body and must be obtained through the diet, but
only a few foods contain a significant amount naturally 116
Back to List
Clover Corp Takeaways
CLV is a Great Business – 5/5 Future Outlook
• Impressive continued top-line growth at a CAGR of 20% Can CLV Sustain its Advantages?
over the past 5 years • CLV is in a great position to sustain its
• Margins have also continued to increase as CLV takes advantages given the high barriers to
advantage of their economies of scale capabilities entry of the industry and the highly
Great Financial • Gross is up to 31.20% from 23.04% 5 years ago fragmented nutritional powdered
ingredients industry
Profile • EBITDA is up to 17.53% from 3.95% 5 years ago
• Solid investment (42% stake) in Melody Dairies (NZ) Can CLV continue to grow?
• They have just recently finished the production of • CLV has a strong product pipeline and is
a new spray dryer1, which will double CLV’s continuing to work on development to
production capacity as well as reduce COGS expand their market
• Already experiencing high demand, and
• The EU recently passed a new regulation mandating a the recent doubling of their production
minimum 20mg/100Kcal of DHA in infant formula capacity will allow them to realize that
• This regulation took place in February 2020 and will demand
result in a large increase in EU sales
Is CLV poised to continue to outperform?
• China is also in the process of making a draft legislation
Promising requiring a minimum of 15mg/100Kcal (up from • While there has been multiple expansion,
Legislation 5mg/100Kcal) of DHA in infant formula most of the price increase has resulted from
• If this comes into fruition, this will greatly the extremely high EBITDA growth
increase sales both in China and the entire world • With such a high upside (doubling capacity),
• China is the largest market for infant formula, so and being currently traded at 21x NTM
every can manufactured outside of China has a very EV/EBITDA (ATH is 31x), it is very likely
high likelihood of ending up in China
CLV will continue to outperform
1Spray drying is a method of producing a dry powder from a liquid or slurry by rapidly drying with a hot gas 117
Elizabeth DeSouza
1244%
5 Year TSR
OB:VOW
Rank: 17/104
118
VOW ASA Overview
VOW ASA, headquartered in Lysakar, Norway, manufactures NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple

and supplies systems for processing and purifying wastewater,
food waste, solid waste, and bio sludge. 2020 51.5x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 11.4x
Stock Price 1.77 NOK 24.85 NOK
0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x 50.0x 60.0x
Market Cap 169.04M NOK 2.65B NOK
Enterprise Value 184.30M NOK 2.78B NOK
P/E 12.42x 108.04x Z
Revenue 200.300M NOK 380.800M NOK
EBITDA 10.60M NOK 38.200M NOK
119
VOW ASA Business Model
24.9% 9.0%
• Sea based solutions VOW solutions aim to mitigate
Projects provided by the climate change and prevent
Scanship subsidiary pollution by giving “waste value”
• Scanship subsidiary provides
• Land based solutions systems and technologies for 66.1%
Landbased provided by the ETIA processing waste and purifying Norway Europe Outside of Europe
subsidiary wastewater for cruise ships and
aquaculture Sales by Category
4.1%
• Systems are either sold to 14.5%
Aftersales • Spare parts and services shipyards for newbuild
0.9% 14.4%
constructions or to ships in 53.3%
operation as retrofits. 1.7%
• Aftersales focuses on sales of 2.4%

1.0% 7.6%
spare parts, consumables, and
services to shipowners Newbuilding cruise Retrofit
Aquaculture Biogreen
• Landbased solutions deal Safe steril Robotics
primarily with the conversion of Spareparts Chemicals
Work Orders
waste to energy, as well as
sterilization of food and VOW is a capital light as production of products
The Scanship sector of VOW provides solutions to pharmaceutical ingredients is mainly outsourced
cruise ships
120
Low Threat
Medium Threat
VOW ASA Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed in
the Industry
Environmental & Facilities
Services
The players in this industry produce
goods and services to measure,
• Increased
prevent, limit and minimize or correct • Many of the solutions • High dependency on the awareness and
environmental damage to water, air
• Significant investment in provided by VOW are cruise ship market for concern for the
and soil, as well as problems related to
R&D needed in this space patented and are the revenue environment
waste, noise, and eco-systems
• There are some very large unique results of extensive • Both Scanship sector and • Concerted effort by
companies in the industry R&D aftersales sector rely companies to be
who have more resources • Strong relationships with heavily on the success more
Market Monopolistic cruise companies have
and reach, but smaller and growth of cruise ship environmentally
companies still enter by allowed VOW to win new industry conscientious,
Market Size ~$640B1 specializing in certain contracts and employ new • New build cruise driven by consumer
environmental services technology operations account for concerns over
Industry
MSD2 over 50% of VOW climate change and
Growth
revenue new regulatory
environments
1 http://www.tradeforum.org/The-Environmental-Services-Business-Big-and-Growing/
2
121
https://www.capitaliq.com/CIQDotNet/Lists/KeyStats.aspx?listObjectId=100885225 (Total Revenue 1 year growth)
• VOW was a relatively new company in 2015 surrounded by • In 2019, VOW acquired French company ETIA that
specializes in products and technologies that give
uncertainty
• VOW ASA, formerly Scanship Holding ASA, was originally incorporated value to waste and contribute to sustainable
in 2011 and listed on the Oslo Axess, a marketplace suitable for newer, Growth & development
smaller companies, in 2014 Expansion • This acquisition strengthens VOW’s land based
• Being a newly listed company in 2015, there was little proven track market access & broadens its technology portfolio
record for investors to go off of, making VOW an uncertain investment • VOW solutions are scalable and are increasingly
• The entirety of VOW’s business in 2015 depended on the cruise attractive to industries other than cruise ships (land
industry, which had suffered from a series of disasters in the years prior based sewage and food waste & aquaculture)
(Costa Concordia, Carnival Triumph, Carnival Splendor)
• Cruise ship industry grown over the last 10 years,
with the number of cruise ship passengers growing at
Return Breakdown: EPS Results1 an annual rate of 5.4%
• Generation Z is coming of age an prioritizes
experiences, such as cruises, over material items
Cruise • The success of the cruise industry is closely tied to the
Industry success of VOW, and the cruise industry is very
Success2 committed to reducing their environmental footprint,
the area VOW specializes in
• Even with Covid-19 impacts on cruise industry, VOW
remains largely unaffected because of the nature of
their newbuild contracts, which are signed years in
advance
1EPS negative in FY2019 due to ETIA acquisition

2https://www.forbes.com/sites/joemicallef/2020/01/20/state-of-the-cruise-industry-smooth-sailing-into-the-2020s/#2ea0867465fa
122
Back to List
VOW ASA Takeaways
VOW is a Great Business – 5/5 Future Outlook
Can VOW Sustain its Advantages?
• VOW’s initial business (Scanship) provides • VOW’s technology is protected by patents
solutions to a very specific customer: cruise
• Relationships with cruise lines take time to build,
ships
making VOW’s valuable and difficult to compete
• Cruise ship industry is very stable, even in the with
face of Covid-19, and it is increasingly
Niche Products environmentally conscious Can VOW continue to grow?
• As Scanship systems grows, the Aftersales segment
• The need for VOW solutions will continue to
will grow in tandem, as it services these installations
increase as climate change intensifies
• The acquisition of ETIA allows VOW access to a new
• Strong core values and mission guiding the
source of revenue
business
• Even with Covid-19, VOW has signed a number of
major contracts this spring for boats as far out at
• VOW technology and solutions can be applied 2027, protecting their revenue growth while the
to a number industries other than cruise ships cruise industry recovers
• The acquisition of ETIA expands VOW’s access
to technology and to land based markets Is VOW poised to continue to outperform?
Room for Growth • VOW solutions aim to mitigate climate change, • VOW has had strong topline growth for the last 5 years
an issue that will be increasingly prevalent in • EPS is expected to increase in the NTM, as it has for the
the long term last 3 years
• Concern for the climate and need for • VOW has had multiple expansion over the last 5 years
technologies, like those produced by VOW, will (with room for more), and its growth prospects make it
only increase as Gen Z comes of age seem likely that this trend will continue
123
Max Schieferdecker
1,169%
5 Year TSR
OM:BACTI B
Rank: 18/104
124
Bactiguard Overview
Bactiguard is a medical device company based just outside of LTM EV/Sales Multiple
Stockholm, Sweden, that focuses on developing and
manufacturing infection protection coating for catheters. 2020 26.8x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 4.7x
Stock Price 11.90 SEK 150.50 SEK
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
Market Cap 396.30M SEK 5.05B SEK
Enterprise Value 487.97M SEK 5.29B SEK
EV / LTM EBITDA N/A 82.84x
Revenue 134.75M 184.99M
125
Bactiguard Business Model
Bactiguard saves lives by reducing
• Direct sales of the 3 8.6%
the amount of healthcare associated
BIP Bactiguard Infection
infections that are present globally
Portfolio Protection products and the 57.7%
product portfolio of Vigilenz • According to the U.S. HHS
department, at any given time, 33.7%
• License agreements for about 1 in 25 inpatients have an
License various applications through infection related to hospital care License BIP Products Other
longstanding partnerships • This leads to tens of
thousands of deaths a year
Sales by Geography
and costs the healthcare 3.0%
system billions of dollars 1.0%
• Bactiguard provides a metal alloy 5.0%

coating that goes on medical devices
(mainly catheters) that repels the 14.0%
microbes that cause infections 77.0%
• BD has exclusive rights to
Bactiguard products in the U.S. and America Asia MEA Europe Latin America
Japan
• Products are sold to the rest of BACTI B is a capital intensive business as
the world through manufacturing is done in-house
The BIP product portfolio distributors
126
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Bactiguard Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed in
the Industry
Medical Coatings
• Most other coating
The players in this industry offer technologies release
substances that enhance the substances the kill both
maneuverability, safety, and • High level of expertise and
good and bad microbes, in • COVID-19 has shed a
performance of different medical know-how is required to
addition to affecting the light on the
devices, such as cardiovascular, break in
surrounding tissue • Regulatory risk is tremendous problems
neurovascular, gynecological, and • There are patent
others. • Bactiguard coating extremely prevalent in healthcare around
protections for
is unique as it is • If a product the world
many existing
tissue friendly due doesn’t make it • One of those
Market Pure players, so effective
to its non-releasing through the major problems
Structure Competition innovation is
technology regulatory happens to be
mandatory
Market Size $14.15B1 • Product quality is backed process, much the amount of
• High levels of government
by clinical research time and money preventable
Industry regulation are present
MSD1 • This science-backed will be lost infections that
Growth • Abbot operates in the kill people
reputation also
industry, but other every year
makes the
competitors are smaller
regulatory approval
process move
quicker for BACTIB
1https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/medical-coatings-market-76047356.html
127
• BACTI B IPOed on 6/19/14 at 38 SEK, and in the first year of
being public, the stock price dropped to 11 SEK • On 3/2/2020, BACTI B acquired
• The initial CEO had to step away for personal Vigilenz, a Malaysian manufacturer
reasons soon after the IPO, which led to a cycle of and supplier of medical devices
Completed focused on wound management and
bad CEO recruitments in the first year (3 CEOs in 3 First infection control
quarters) Acquisition • Products are complementary to
• Net income also decreased dramatically in FY ‘14 to -95m SEK
Bactiguard’s existing product portfolio
from -3.4m SEK which presents synergy opportunities

• Through recently acquired Vigilenz,
HYDROCYN aqua was launched in
Sweden on 3/12/2020
• It is a water-based antimicrobial
A COVID-19 solution that has been proven to
Product was inactivate 100% of previous strains of
Launched corona virus within 15 seconds
• In the first few days after the launch,
orders totaling around 20m SEK
were received (in the Swedish
market alone)
128
Back to List
Bactiguard Takeaways
BACTI B is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
• Bactiguard has a very strong value add in its products Can BACTI B Sustain its Advantages?
• They save lives, reduce costs, and reduce the use of • Most of the innovating development that
antibiotics set up the base of BACTIB’s business
BACTI B has a • They have proven to reduce the rate of UTIs be a model has already taken place, so the
Moat minimum average of 35% quality and research of the coating is not
• Since the beginning of the company in 1995, there has been going anywhere
zero documented cases of side-effects from the coating
after over 200M patients experienced it Can BACTI B continue to grow?
• Currently building up production line in Sweden in order • With its recent acquisition and openness to
to increase capacity to meet future and present demand do more strategic M&A in the future, in
in Sweden, and Europe more broadly addition to their clearly laid out strategic
Strong Demand in • Elective surgery customers have been hit hard, but demand growth initiatives, it is highly likely that
COVID Times for protective equipment, ICU equipment, and basic medical BACTIB will continue to grow
supplies have increased substantially, which is good for the
customers that operate in those segments Is BACTI B poised to continue to outperform?
• Ultimately, a net benefit for BACTIB however • Given the tremendous amount of multiple
• All members of senior management and board members are expansion that has taken place over the last
shareholders in the company year, it seems like the market has taken into
Promising • 85% of all U.S. hospitals already use Bactiguard products account most, if not all, future growth
Features on a daily basis
prospects, and thus it is unlikely to continue
• Very large potential markets to break into and penetrate
to outperform
• These include orthopedic, trauma, and dental implants
129
Owen Stimpson
1,167%
5 Year TSR
ASX:PME
Rank: 19/104
130
Pro Medicus Overview In Australian Dollars (AUD)
Pro Medicus Limited is a leading imaging IT provider. Founded in EV / NTM EBITDA

1983, the company provides a full range of radiology IT software
and services to hospitals, imaging centers and health care groups
2019
worldwide.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 10x 20x 30x 40x 50x 60x 70x
PE 67.58x 115.06x
EBITDA 3.53M 25.66M
131
Pro Medicus Business Model
Sales by Division
PME develops a range of health 2%
Provides range of
Health software and hardware imaging IT products.
Imaging for health imaging to
IT hospitals, imaging centers, • Product range covers radiology
and health care groups. information systems (RIS), Picture
Archiving and Communication 98%
Systems (PACS) and advanced
visualization solutions. Hardware Software
• Specializes in RIS.
• Products help improve radiologist Sales by Geography

productivity and diagnostic accuracy.
46%
39%
• PME offers training and
implementation for their products.
• Contracts based on transaction

license model (PME charges clients 15%
Images taken using PME Visage product. each time they use their products). Australia EU NA
• 87% of revenue is recurring.

PME is a low capital intensity business.
132
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Pro Medicus Competitive Analysis High Threat

• US mandated
Market Monopolistic electronic health
Global Medical Structure Competition records in 2018.
Imaging Market Market Size ≈$34B1 • Contracts are multi- • First mover in • Images
Industry year long. radiology became more
MSD1 digitization important
Growth • Data breach.
Participants in this industry market. part of
develop medical imaging • Regulatory burdens.
patient’s
hardware and software for use • Industry definition overly • Critical software digital health
in MRIs, X-Rays, etc. • Reputation: PME failure or glitch.
broad: industry definition • Capital requirements record.
has a top-tier
includes hardware, which is to develop new
products and
large portion of overall industry technology. • Technological
counts some of • Emergence of AI to
size. • Some PME tech obsolescence.
the best diagnose health
covered by hospitals as issues.
• Key competitors include patents.
Siemens, Fuji, and Cannon. customers.
• PME has a market lead. • Increasing openness
to cloud solutions for
digital health
records.
1. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/05/20/1827196/0/en/Global-Medical-Imaging-Market-Will-Reach-USD-48-6-Billion-By-2025-Zion-Market-
Research.html 133
• PME moved towards a transaction license
model – less upfront costs for customers
Pricing model but more recurring revenue for PME.
• Many hospitals simply cannot afford to buy PME’s products. change
• PME products are also not a priority nor will they become a • Made product more accessible to
priority for hospitals. customers.
• US mandated electronic health records (EHR)
• PME is not growing – FY2010 revenue and EBITDA substantially in 2018.
higher than FY2015. • 90% of EHRs are images.
• Margins have not improved since 2010. • File size data increased exponentially –
PME products making cloud solutions like PME’s more
became a priority attractive.
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results • PME products enable hospitals to save on IT
infrastructure, improve radiologist turn-
around time (by 34%), and improve clinical
accuracy.
• PME signed major contracts with Partners
Healthcare and Carle Foundation which grew
revenue from 17M in FY2015 to 50M in
FY0219.
Revenue, EBITDA,
• Revenue recurring increases as PME product
and margins grew
uses increase.
• High operating leverage enabled EBITDA
margins to increase from 20% in FY2015 to
50% in FY2019.
134
Back to List
Pro Medicus Takeaways

PME is a High Quality Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
Can PME Sustain its Market Position?
• PME has a moat due to the length of their contracts,
their technological advantage and sunk R&D, and • PME has long-term contracts with top-tier hospitals.
PME has a wide moat the regulatory burdens in the space. • And there is very little incentive for them to switch
• PME’s contracts with top-tier hospitals gives them a given their strong technology and the switching
reputational advantage relative to competitors. costs they would incur.
• PME benefits from regulatory barriers.
• Industry trends helped drive demand: mandated EHRs
in the US, importance of images to EHRs (and their Can PME continue to grow faster than the industry?
growing file sizes), future importance of AI. • PME has been at the forefront of the industry and was a
PME grew
• In 2019, PME signed multiple major contracts: 27M deal pioneer in radiology digitization – no evidence they will not
with Partner Healthcare (largest contract to date), 14M continue to be so.
contract with Duke, and others. • PME can leverage its operational leverage and benefit from
• PME’s products help improve radiologist productivity by scale advantages.
increasing their turn around time, and improve clinical • Reputation gives them an upper hand in winning new
accuracy. contracts.
• Also radiology digitization will be crucial to
leverage power of AI going forward. Is PME poised to continue to outperform the market?
PME has a runway for • Recurring revenue will continue to grow as use of • PME will likely benefit from advantageous industry trends
growth PME software continues, and PME signs new and sign new major contracts, and continue to benefit from
contracts. transaction license recurring revenue.
• Industry trends towards AI, digitization of health • Major opportunity outside US.
records, improving clinical efficiency see no sign • At 115x earnings everything will need to go right for PME to
slowing. justify its multiple – there is no margin for error.
135
Max Schieferdecker
1,114%
5 Year TSR
NYSE:INS
Rank: 20/104
136
Intelligent Systems Overview
Intelligent Systems Corporation is a fintech company that
develops software and offers services to aid businesses in the LTM P/Sales Multiple
management and processing of payment cards. These products
are offered through its subsidiary, CoreCard. 2020 9.1x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 1.8x
Market Cap $28.87M $320.85M 0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x
EV / NTM Revenue N/A 7.44x
EBITDA -2.60M 14.39M
137
Intelligent Systems Business Model
Primary Products Context Sales by Product
5%
CoreCard helps process 17%
• Software licenses are payments (moving money
Products 22%
sold to businesses from customers to businesses)
• Software licenses are
provided to businesses after
• Outsourced processing 56%
they are fitted for that the
services
unique requirements of each
Services • Professional services License Professional Services Processing and Maintenance Third Party
individual client
for software
modification • CoreCard also offers to run a Sales by Geography
business’s processing in 11%
house through its processing
services
• For a more specialized
approach, CoreCard offers
professional services 89%
through which the software
is enhanced and modified for USA EU
each individual business
strategy and operational INS is a capital light business as software companies do
INS is Focused on Processing Payments requirements not require heavy investments in fixed assets
138
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Intelligent Systems Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Payments and Processing
The players in this industry process

credit and debit card transactions and
connect merchants, merchant banks, • INS has a real advantage
card networks and others to make over its competition in their • INS has high customer • Online and
card payments possible. speed to market, and they concentration, with 2 touchless
• There are high switching won the Goldman Sachs – purchasing are
customers accounting for
costs for businesses using Apple Card deal because of it becoming more
71% of revenue in FY19,
these products prevalent in
• Superior customer service one 60% and one 11%
Market • Reputation is important in today’s society,
Oligopoly • Customers are given a • Currently operating at
Structure this industry, which may businesses must
unique product capacity could greatly adapt their
make is hard for new
Market Size $44B1 compared to the restrict the ability of INS processing
players to break in
mass-produced to capitalize on the inflow technology to
Industry of potential business
> 10%1 services of its adapt
Growth
competitors
1https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/payment-processing-solutions-market-751866.html
139
- Micro-cap Company with no sell-side coverage and a long
history of inconsistent and unimpressive earnings • INS got rid of their industrial
washer business (ChemFree), which
- INS was operating two totally different businesses,
allowed them to focus their capital
CoreCard and ChemFree, unsuccessfully and efforts on the Fintech industry
- There was little hope in management’s ability to operate Focused their and their payment business.
the business successfully, as their focuses are greatly Efforts on
• This greatly reduced SG&A
split between two very different business models Fintech expenses and allowed them to
invest the $19M they received from
the sale into expanding their
CoreCard operations.
Return Breakdown:
• In 2018, INS secured Goldman Sachs
as a client that ended up accounting
for 40% and 60% of total revenue in
2018 and 2019 respectively.
Secured 1 Large • This resulted in YoY increases in
Client revenue of 116% and 71% in 2018
and 2019 respectively.
• CoreCard was brought in to help
Goldman with the implementation of
the Apple credit card.
140
Back to List
Intelligent Systems Takeaways
INS is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
• INS is a small business that has a lot of upside for
growth. Can INS Sustain its Moat?
• HOWEVER, management has stated that they • Provided INS doesn’t grow faster than it
would not have the capacity for another large can handle, which it doesn’t seem to be
High Upside Potential customer for quite some time doing currently, INS prides itself on that
• INS is now solely focused on the FinTech industry, speed and uniqueness compared to its
allowing them to reinvest their high cash balance in competitors.
the sector
• Within the FinTech space, INS is looking to shift its Can INS continue to grow?
revenue model to invest more heavily into the • It seems like so far the Apple card has
expansion of their services business rolled out successfully, so other companies
• Services provide a more consistent source of will likely see this success with Goldman
Focused Future revenue than one-off large licensing deals and the fast implementation relative to its
• They have also historically accounted for 85% of competitors. The Goldman deal seems to
their revenue, so it makes sense to focus on be the catalyst to much more growth in the
growing the cash cow of the business future.
• “If you can’t find us, you’re probably not a good Is INS poised to continue to outperform?
prospect, and we don’t need to be knocking on your • Given the extremely high demand and the
doors.” – Leland Strange (CEO)
Strong Industry fact that INS has to turn away customers, a
• Customers seek out INS for their unique ability to solve
Reputation complex problems and their speed to market. The
simple expansion plan should allow the
customers come knocking and INS incurs almost zero stock to continue to outperform rather
marketing expense and have no sales staff. comfortably
141
Owen Stimpson
1,036%
5 Year TSR
OTCPK:SMLR
Rank: 21/104
142
Semler Scientific Overview
Semler Scientific, Inc. is an emerging medical risk-assessment EV / NTM Revenue
company. It develops, manufacturers, and markets products that
assist customers in evaluating and treating chronic diseases. Its
2019
current product is the QuantaFlo, which tests for PAD.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 2x 4x 6x 8x 10x
PE NA 44.94x
EBITDA (8.10M) 10.86M
143
Semler Scientific Business Model
5-minute PAD test that can SMLR only sells the QuantFlo product in the United
SMLR is a PAD test company.
be done by a range of States.
• SMLR aims to ensure more
health professionals, not people with PAD are
QuantaFlo SMLR is a capital light business as they outsource
just vascular doctors. It is diagnosed.
their manufacturing.
licensed or rented to health • PAD, or Peripheral
professionals. artery disease, is when
narrowed arteries
reduce blood flow to
limbs.
• PAD diagnosis is good
indicator of elevated
risk for heart-attack,
strokes, etc.
• QuantaFlo seeks to give non-
vascular doctors an easy way
to screen for PAD. QuantaFlo test steps.
• Issue is many patients
with PAD do not get
symptoms, and current
testing often requires
A QuantaFlo in use. going to an expert.
144
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Semler Scientific Competitive Analysis High Threat

• ACA began Medicare

Advantage plans to
Market • Relationships transition away from
Oligopoly with health care
US Medical Structure fee-for-service to
• Patent issued to SMLR professionals
Device Market Market Size 45.3B1 • One customer capitation model.
for the QuantaFlo. and insurers. nearly 50% of • Insurers are
Manufacturing and selling of Industry revenue.
LSD1 paid per
medical device products, such Growth • FDA approval needed, • Scientific testing • The QuantaFlo client, not per
as pacemakers, ABI machines, which can take years. and study may stop being service.
MRIs, etc. results that covered for
• Top four companies: • Payment for
Medtronic, GE, Abott Labs, • Many major players demonstrate reimbursement. heathy clients
and Danaher hold roughly that create similar product • Another PAD by CMS is less
70% market share. tests. effectiveness. test could be than for
• There are many large • Uncertain how invented, or unhealthy
companies that manufacture proprietary • Speed and ease existing ones ones. Creating
the ABI machine (the SMLR tech is. at which the test may be an incentive
competitor device to can be improved. to diagnose
QauntaFlo). administered. PAD as it
would
increase their
revenue.
1. Only US; Ibis World

145
Raised enough
• Burns cash and will need to raise more to survive. money and then • SMLR raised equity, stayed afloat, kept
stared making growing, and now is cash flow generative.
• Insurers could be hesitant to reimburse such a quick procedure – money
especially because little expertise is enquired to administer it. • Physicians are generally charging for use under
Reimbursement general reimbursement policies.
• Sure there may be upside, but it is very speculative right now. concerns continue • QuantaFlo has likely been denied for
to exist but didn’t reimbursement in some cases but it has not
• ACA may be repealed and fee-for-service will, for better or worse, impede growth been a major impediment so far, nor does
remain the norm. SMLR track these denials.
• SMLR has the quickest and easiest PAD test

Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results available; and it does not need a vascular doctor
to be administered.
Model was proven
• Recurring revenue from license model keeps
gross margins very high – 88% in FY2019.
• Revenue grown at 37% CAGR since FY2015.
• The ACA was not repealed.

ACA was not • Medicare Advantage plans use a capitation
repealed; model.
healthcare • 232B market in 2018.1
payment models • Medicare Advantage becoming more
are changing possible and could penetrate 50% of all
Medicare plans by 2025. 2
1. https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/the-facts-on-medicare-spending-and-financing/
2. https://www.lek.com/sites/default/files/insights/pdf-attachments/1969_Medicare_AdvantageLEK_Executive_Insights_1.pdf 146
Back to List
Semler Scientific Takeaways

SMLR is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
Can SMLR Sustain its Market Position?
• PAD is a major disease that affects 20M Americans
but ~75% are undiagnosed. • SMLR is currently the leader in the space and has the
SMLR identified a market best product.
opportunity • Diagnosing PAD earlier would enable preventative
care to start earlier – bettering patient outcomes and • SMLR’s competitors who make ABI devices are major
lowering medical costs by preventing further issues. players, and if the PAD test market proves to be
lucrative, could likely enter.
• Existing PAD tests (i.e. the ABI) took too long (upwards • Not clear how proprietary SMLR’s product actually is.
of 15 minutes) and often could only be administered by
vascular health specialists. Can SMLR continue to grow faster than the industry?
SMLR developed the best • This stopped many primary care doctors from • If they can maintain their market position and fend off
product doing them, and many cases of PAD going potential new entrants their license model will enable them
undiagnosed. to outperform.
• SMLR’s QuantaFlo test takes 4 minutes and can be done • SMLR does not have major R&D spend, nor any key new
by essentially any health professional. products in the pipeline and future performance will depend
• SMLR capitalized on Medicare Advantage providers who on QuantaFlo’s success.
got paid by the CMS based on the health of their clients.
• If they could use SMLR’s product to determine Is SMLR poised to continue to outperform the market?
their clients had PAD, they could charge CMS
SMLR grew revenue and • SMLR has identified a major opportunity in PAD testing and
more.
margins has benefited from the shift in payment models for Medicare
• Marks a change away from fee-for-service. Advantage Plans.
• License model lowered upfront costs for customers but • New competitors could enter and undercut SMLR’s growth;
created a recurring revenue stream for SMLR – enabling and if they lose their biggest customer, 50% of sales would
their high gross margins. be eliminated.
147
Max Schieferdecker
1,007%
5 Year TSR
AIM:KWS
Rank: 22/104
148
Keywords Studios Overview
Keywords Studios is a software consultant based in Dublin, NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
Ireland, that provides integrated, outsourced creative and
technical services to video game companies. 2020 28.3x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 13.2x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
NTM P/E 16.93x 42.90x Z
EBITDA 9.07M 40.50M
149
Keywords Studios Business Model
11.1%
13.4%
• Creation of video game
graphical art, game KWS is a one-stop-shop for all 6.9%
Art Creation
trailers, and marketing video game development needs 20.3%
materials 14.9%
• KWS allows companies to
• Outsourced software increase their performance 21.1% 12.4%
Game
creation for any part of the capabilities by offering
Development Art Creation Game Development Audio Functional Testing
development process outsourcing services Localisation Localisation Testing Player Support
• Voiceover recording, voice • A variety of services for
production, music every stage in the Sales by Geography
Audio
management, and sound development cycle are
20.3%
effect services included in their 36.2%
• Quality assurance services product portfolio
12.8%
Functional pertained to hardware • KWS’ 950+ clients include
Testing compliance and market small developers as well as 14.7% 16.0%
reception the large, blue-chip, global
• Translation of in-game video game companies Ireland USA Canada UK Others
text, audio scripts, cultural • 23 of the top 25 video

Localization adaptation, and marketing game companies by
KWS is a capital light business as there is not
materials in over 50 revenue are customers
material production involved in the business
languages
150
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Keywords Studios Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Video Game
The players in this industry develop

video games.
• Many locations allows them
• No material barriers to
to be close to their clients
entry
• No other player in
• Many players in the • Currency risk is present • Video games have
the industry that
Market Pure market due to the global nature of become much
operates on a global
Structure Competition • Only sizable advantage for the business more mainstream
scale
the larger players is the
Market Size $170.55B1 • Strong reputation as a
marketing budget
provider of high-quality aid
Industry
> 10%1
Growth
1https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/video-game-market
151
• In July 2016, CEO Andrew Day
presented at the ShareSoc Richmond
• Small micro cap company listed on the lower volume AIM conference
exchange Increased their • This was the first time KWS
• Received little to no analyst coverage which resulted in Investor had made a large effort to
Relations actively get in front of
many investors not knowing about the stock
Efforts investors
• The change in the slope of the
share price from flat to steep
can be traced to this event
• KWS ramped up their acquisition
efforts to complete around 5 – 10
per year
• These helped expand both their
High Amount geographic reach and their service
of Accretive capabilities
Acquisitions • Being near their clients around the
world increased the quality and
amount of work that they could
complete, which increased revenues
substantially
152
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Keywords Studios Takeaways
KWS is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
• KWS offers a substantial value add to its clients that cannot Can KWS Sustain it’ Advantages?
be found in very many other companies • KWS has established itself as a reliable
KWS has a Moat partner in the video game development
• It is cheaper for many companies to hire KWS
than to do many of these operations in-house process
• There are no other companies that have
the same global reach and quality
• Launch of the new generations of consoles later in 2020 thresholds that KWS has
• A fast-growing industry drives more demand for
Can KWS continue to grow?
outsourcing services
Strong Tailwinds • The video game industry is continuing to
• High innovation in both the actual games and the
for the Video expand as more competition leads to more
distribution of those games drives competition and
Game Industry innovation and the new consoles arrive
increases output
• KWS is a key part of the development
• Rejuvenation of the industry both through new players and
process for many companies, so they will
“retired” players having more free time during COVID-19
undoubtedly continue to grow at a
minimum in line with the industry
• Strong M&A pipeline of high-quality, attractive Is KWS poised to continue to outperform?
companies • Although multiple expansion did take place
Strong • High cash balance fueled by strong cash generation in the past, the potential growth of the
Positioning for and a recent £100m raise allows KWS to capitalize on company could negate some slight
Future Growth these opportunities efficiently and effectively
contraction
• Growth will continue to happen at similar rates as in the past
because of their increased resources and capabilities
• KWS will likely continue to outperform as
not all future growth is calculated in yet
153
Owen Stimpson
866%
5 Year TSR
ASX:HUB
Rank: 23/104
154
HUB24 Overview In Australian Dollars
HUB24 Limited is a financial service company that provides Price / LTM Revenue
investment and superannuation portfolio administration
services, and licensee services. It operates the HUB24 investment
2019
and superannuation platform.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Market Cap $60.39M $715.99M 0x 2x 4x 6x 8x
Price / LTM Revenue 4.32x 6.92x
PE NA 50.44x
Revenue 29.3M 97.5M
EBITDA NA NA
155
HUB24 Business Model
Sales by Division
7%
Provides financial
Investment and advisors capability to
superannuation offer their clients HUB24 provides services for 37%
platform access to a wide range independent financial advisors. 56%
of investments.
• HUB24 investment platform helps
independent financial advisors with
range of activities: making License Platform IT
Financial advice investments, monitoring fees,
licensee. Provides managing portfolios, etc.
Paragem compliance, software, Sales by Geography
education and support • HUB also offers business solutions
to financial advisors. for financial advisors to help build
100%
their brand and win clients.
IT services for the • Paragem is a community for

Agility financial services financial advisors that help advisors
industry. maintain compliance standards,
gives access to research, etc. Australia
HUB is a low capital intensity business.
156
Low Threat
Medium Threat
HUB24 Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market Monopolistic • Regulatory barriers. • Scale enables • Switching

Financial Advisor Structure Competition data advantages platforms
Platform Industry (which features relatively
≈$858.5B of • Need strong security
Market Size are most useful, common: 29% • Specialty platforms
FUA1 cybersecurity
etc.). of financial gained market share
Industry measures. advisers
Participants in this industry > 10%1 as banks lost it.
Growth switched in
provide platforms upon which • Reputation as
financial advisors can build • Switching costs: 2019.
• Traditionally market was good platform. • Government report
their practice. hassle to transfer
dominated by major bank (Royal Commission)
client funds / data • Data breach.
platforms, such as • Feedback from changed industry
across platforms.
Macquarie and BT. customer base. regulations and led
• HUB24 and Netwealth are • New fintech to financial advisors
two fintech disruptors who • Industry is evolving entrants or switching away from
are capturing the most quickly and there is a • Paragem major bank
major bank
market share. race to win market benefits from platforms.
makes large
share: likelihood of network effects.
• Non-institutional platforms investment to
now represent 60% of new fintech entrants protect market
financial advisors. is high. share.
1. https://yourir.info/resources/3929695d306a6404/announcements/nwl.asx/3A521585/NWL_NWL_2019_Results_Presentation.pdf
157
• Stale, mature industry – not much room for HUB to capture market • Royal Commission report essentially found
share and grow. widespread conflicts of interest and poor
service in Australian financial industry:
• Unprofitable company that has consistently negative operational • Those recommending investments
cash flow since 2008. (financial advisors) worked for
• With 12M in cash on the balance sheet HUB may go under banks that sold these products.
Industry evolved
soon.
• Led to financial advisors moving towards
• HUB’s product, given their scale, will always be inferior to those of independent platforms, like HUB.
the major institutions. • Regulatory changed that eliminates of
grandfathered commissions likely to open
FUA from incumbent platforms.
HUB is now • Cash flow positive since FY2016; profitable
profitable and cash since FY2017.
flow positive • Issued dividend in FY2018.
• Independent, non-bank nature of product
attractive post Royal Commission report.
• Strength in managed account segment: added
HUB has a strong, 129 new managed portfolios to platform in Q1
competitive product 2020, for example.
• 89% of customers believe HUB is best
platform; consistent industry recognition as
having top product.
158
Back to List
HUB24 Takeaways
HUB is a Good Business- 3.5/5 Future Outlook
• The Royal Commission report released in 2017 Can HUB Sustain its Market Position?
dramatically altered the industry. • HUB does have some advantages: switching costs, strong
• Report shined light on conflicts of interests and abuse product, reputation, etc.
HUB’s industry changed in major banks and led to advisors fleeing to • But 29% of advisors switched platforms in 2019.
dramatically independent platforms, like HUB. • Industry is evolving quickly and new entrants threaten
• Regulation changes catalyzed by report, such as positioning.
removal of grandfathered commissions, freed up FUA • Banks may be unwilling to lose market share for
from incumbent institutions (mainly major banks). much longer and make major new investments.
• HUB is the fastest growing platform in the industry. Can HUB continue to grow faster than the industry?
• Grew adviser customer base from 484 in FY2015 to • HUB has proven they can grow faster than the industry – in
1,625 in FY2019. fact, the fastest over the last three years.
HUB capitalized on this • FUA grown at 72% CAGR over same period. • HUB needs to stay on top of trends to continue growth
these changes • Revenue grew from 29M to 97.5M in same trajectory.
period. • Potential new entrants, more competition from banks, and
• Market leading position in managed accounts space changing industry means growth trajectory is more uncertain.
undergirded growth. Is HUB poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Specialist platforms continue to win market share from • HUB has capitalized on an evolving industry and captured
institutional incumbents. market share.
• HUB has invested in its products and has industry • But customers are not particularly sticky and many have
HUB has a runway for
leading features, which has enabled HUB to achieve changed products; there is also the threat of banks and new
growth
industry leading growth over the last three years – and competitors entering.
potentially going forward. • At 50x earnings, HUB will likely struggle to continue to
• Potential of further disruption from new entrants. outperform.
159
Max Schieferdecker
855%
5 Year TSR
XTRA:YSN
Rank: 24/104
160
secunet Overview
secunet is an IT security company based in Essen, Germany, NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
that operates as a subsidiary of their parent company
Giesecke+Devrient, who owns 78.96% of the shares.
2020 28.0x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 12.5x
Stock Price €20.25 €178.50
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
NTM P/E 29.35x 52.35x Z
EBITDA 9.60M 35.40M
161
secunet Business Model
• Specialist consulting on IT YSN secures IT systems and 25.2%

security, software optimizes IT processes
development, and the • YSN specializes in IT high
Services development and security, complex solutions, 74.8%
implementation of and demanding projects in
comprehensive security which technologies and
solutions processes are combines Public Sector Private Sector
• A variety of hardware and • The range of solutions

software solutions ranging is mainly geared Sales by Geography
Product from tablets, to crypto- towards large-scale IT 7.7%
Portfolio gateways and servers, to infrastructures
inter-country registration • YSN provides tailored
kiosks in airports solutions matching the
individual requirements of 92.3%
each client
• Consulting and development Domestic (Germany) Abroad
A secunet easygate kiosk that projects are handled in close
is used in many EU airports collaboration with the clients
at 11 locations around YSN is a capital intensive business as it is an R&D
Germany heavy business and production is done in house
162
Low Threat
Medium Threat
secunet Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Cyber Security

technologies, processes, and practices
• Shortage of high-quality
designed to protect networks, devices,
talent interested in the IT
programs, and data from attack,
security business
damage, or unauthorized access.
• Many potential customers • Strong relationships with
already have established the EU, NATO, and the • Increased
• The parent company owns a
relationships with IT German government reliance on the
majority stake and has
Market Monopolistic security providers • YSN has been in business internet and
different incentives than
Structure Competition • Reputation is for over 20 years and thus software in
the common shareholders
critical in winning has a lot of experience in everyday life
business when the space
Industry dealing with critical
> 10%1
Growth components on
client’s business
1https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/cyber-security-market
163
• In the private sector, shifting technological
advances in the business world required
• Micro-cap stock with very little trading volume that trades on Strong new IT security measures
a minor exchange Industry • In the public sector, worries about the
• Actual amount of free float only about 10% of total Tailwinds security of critical infrastructure and the
shares outstanding complexity of network scenarios (5G) have
• Order book was down y/y which did not indicate an extremely increased demand as well
promising future • Germany has been officially undergoing a
digitization of their health care system since
it passed an ehealth law in 2016
• YSN decided to capitalize on this opportunity
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results given their expertise in IT infrastructure and
security
Expanded • In 2018, the “konnektor,” securely
into the integrates the information on the
Healthcare management systems of hospitals,
Industry doctor’s offices, and pharmacies into
the broader national Telematics
Infrastructure (TI)
• In April 2020, the organization in
charge of the project, gematic,
approved the product for field
testing and then commercialization
164
Back to List
secunet Takeaways
YSN is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
• YSN has excellent relationships with some major Can YSN Sustain its Advantages?
customers, specifically the government bodies • The reputation that YSN has developed
YSN has a Moat • In a world that is becoming more and more digitized over its long tenure in the IT business as
everyday, people want to feel protected, and YSN a high quality provider is hard to lose
provides that security • Its strong relationships with its key
clients are likely to stay intact in the
• With the dive into the healthcare industry yet to be future
fully commercialized, there is a lot of upside
potential for the company that is not known at this Can YSN continue to grow?
Strong Future point
• The strong potential to break into new
Potential • The table is also set for the company to launch more markets (healthcare) and the broader
products related to IT in other industries as well industry and cultural tailwinds behind
• Also a lot of room to continue to grow their them will undoubtedly continue to drive
existing private company client base the growth of YSN
• With Giesecke+Devrient owning 78.96% of the shares, Is YSN poised to continue to outperform?
with regards to voting rights, YSN is essentially a private
• Given the reasonable multiples (22x
company
EV/NTM EBITDA) the stock is currently
Worrisome • The ~10% of free float shares really have no
power trading at as well as the huge upside
Ownership Structure
• If things end up going badly for either the parent potential that it has, it is very likely that YSN
or YSN, the interests of the free float shareholders will continue to outperform into the near
would not be considered at all future
165
Owen Stimpson
850%
5 Year TSR
LSE:FUTR
Rank: 25/104
166
Future Overview
EV / NTM EBITDA
Future plc is a British media company founded in 1985. It
publishes more than 50 magazines in fields such as video games,
technology, films, music, photography, home and knowledge. 2019
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 2x 4x 6x 8x 10x 12x 14x
PE 51.66x 19.93x
EBITDA 1.4M 44.1 M
167
Future Business Model
Primary Product Context Sales by Division
Operates online websites and 30%

FUTR is a specialty media
runs events. Revenue from
Media company.
advertising, ecommerce, ticket
sales, and email newsletters.
• Operates niche websites and
magazines on a variety of 70%
Operates 78 specialty
topics.
magazines on a variety of
Magazines Media Magazine
topics (i.e. guitars, pc gaming,
• FUTR creates communities
etc.).
around niche topics through Sales by Geography
its media platforms (both
websites and magazines) and 46%
its events.
54%
• FUTR sells variety of services
to brands such as content
creation, advertising,
audience data insights, print UK US
licensing, and digital
Sample FUTR websites and magazines licensing.
FUTR is a low/medium capital business due to the capital
intensity required to create new, original content.
168
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Future Competitive Analysis High Threat

Monopolistic • Competitors can

Market
Competition / steal market
Structure • Understanding
Oligopoly • Network effects: share in even
sites have self- and experience:
more niche ends
• Each specific website / FUTR knows • Social media has
FUTR operates in many niche published content (i.e. electric
magazine operates in a what content become even more
markets online and in feature which means guitar focused
different sub-industry with works and how prevalent, especially
magazines from home more users which site competes
varying competitive dynamics. to monetize it. for news and
renovations, to photography, create more content, with FUTR content.
to music. It would be which attracts more • Diversified end- guitar
• FUTR has leading psotions in markets: FUTR
misleading to say that FUTR users. magazine).
many of the sub-industries:
competes in one industry / Low-startup costs. can lose • Print magazines
• #1 UK/US consumer • • Changes to
market – it competes in many. positioning continue long-term
technology publisher. • Search engine google search
without decline.
• #1 PC gaming website. optimization. algorithm.
destroying
• #1 online space • Publisher • Social media
publisher. bottom line.
relationships for groups (i.e. FB
• #1 consumer music • Relationships
magazines. groups) steal
making magazine. with advertisers. market share.
• #1 homebuilding show
in UK.
1. Only North America ; https://icv2.com/articles/news/view/43024/hobby-game-sales-total-1-5-billion-2018

169
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • Strengthened balance sheet and protected
the company from credit risk.
• FUTR “transformation” program is not a signal of future success –
but rather a sign of a company in decay. • Made tough decisions to cut costs
• Good companies with strong management do not need to Transformation was (employees) and sell segments that were
sell £24.8m worth of assets and restructure debt. a success diluting the company’s focus.
• Magazines are dying out – makes no sense to invest in a magazine • Focus on media segment and fast growing
company. digital segment.
• FUTR even projects revenue declines for magazines. • Added to FTSE 250 index in June 2019.
• Revenue is decreasing, EBITDA has been negative, and the company
• Management acknowledges that print is in
is unprofitable.
steady long-term decline.
• Niche nature of magazines has insulated FUTR
Magazines not over
from some of the decline – subscribers flat
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results from 2018 to 2019 and circulation increased
15%.
• FUTR identified new revenue streams and
exploited them: ecommerce, events, and
advertising.
• Ecommerce revenues virtually non-
existent in FY2015 to ≈30% of revenue
New revenue streams in HY2020.
• Consistent growth in digital
advertising revenue.
• Consistently launched new events.
• Revenue grown at 40% CAGR from 60M in
FY2015 to 221.5M in FY2019.
170
Back to List
Future Takeaways
FUTR is a Good Business- 3.5/5 Future Outlook
Can FUTR Sustain its Market Position?
• FUTR addressed its balance sheet issues by
• FUTR is a market leader in the majority of its segments
restructuring debt, selling non-core assets, laying
FUTR made necessary (i.e. TechRadar in personal tech sites).
off workers, and closing offices.
changes • FUTR could lose positioning in any segment – but very
• Simplified the business to focus on digital segment
unlikely to lose it in many segments.
where it saw most growth potential.
• Social media continues to threaten original content
• FUTR optimized the back-end for websites, which made producers as people search for “posted” articles rather
launching new websites easier. than seek them out through Google search.
• Grew revenue streams by expanding ecommerce, Can FUTR continue to grow faster than the industry?
optimizing advertising capabilities, and launching new • FUTR understands its core business and has an executions
Digital media did grow
events. strategy that works.
• Made many acquisitions and captured synergies on the • Exemplified by the many successful acquisitions.
back-end, while using their SEO and other capabilities • Continues to be opportunities for further acquisitions.
to grow users. • Low incremental costs for digital media revenue, and network
• Trends that FUTR utilized to grow can continue to drive effect from sites as users post and interact with content.
growth: Is FUTR poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Ecommerce continues to grow. • FUTR can continue to grow events, advertising, and
• Digital media increasingly popular and can make ecommerce revenue.
FUTR has a runway for further acquisitions. • Demonstrated they will remain focused on core
growth • Low incremental costs and high gross margins in digital business and not deviate.
segment means growth will flow through to bottom line. • FUTR’s 13x NTM EBITDA does not price in significant growth
• Magazine segment in long-term decline, but FUTR has outperformance relative to the market.
nevertheless maintained its revenue contribution and • Persistent threat of social media boxing out FUTR from its
even grown circulation. demographics and decreasing ad revenue.
171
Owen Stimpson
819%
5 Year TSR
NasdaqGS:CWST
Rank: 26/104
172
Casella Waste Systems Overview
Casella Waste Systems provides resource management expertise EV / NTM EBITDA
and services to residential, commercial, municipal and industrial
customers in the areas of solid waste resource collection,
2019
recycling, organics, energy recovery and disposal.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0.00x 5.00x 10.00x 15.00x 20.00x 25.00x
PE NA 98.82x
Revenue 546.5 743.3
EBITDA 91.0 138.3
173
Casella Waste Systems Business Model
11%
Includes the collection, 6%
CWST is a full service, Solid Waste
processing, and disposal of
vertically integrated solid
Solid solid waste. This segment also Organics
waste management company.
Waste includes revenue from the 8%
Operations power generated by Customer
• One-stop shop for customers
converting landfill gas to Solutions
and their solid waste
energy. Recyling
management. 76%
• Customer solutions
Leveraging organic portion of segment enables CWST
waste stream to create to tailor specific
Organics
products, such as fertilizers solutions for large Sales by Geography
and mulch. clients.
• CWST tries to earn revenue 100%
Work with large-scale from the actual waste itself
Customer
customers to develop custom through selling organic
Solutions
solid waste solutions. products and recycled
commodities.
Processing of recyclable • Range of customers:
Recycling materials and sale of recycled residential, commercial, USA
materials. municipal, industrial.
Heavy machinery needed to transport / process waste; high-capital
intensity business.
174
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Casella Waste Systems Competitive Analysis High Threat
Competitive What’s Changed in the

Advantages Industry
Waste Collection • The industry has gotten

• Scale enables
Services Industry Market
Oligopoly economies of • Losing a more consolidated due
Structure • Regulations can be scale. major to major M&A:
Operators in this industry
Market Size 51.7B1 complex, are subject contract. • 3rd and 4th
collect waste and recyclable • Integration of
to change, and are largest players
materials. Nonhazardous Industry different
LSD1 different across merged in 4.1B
waste includes municipal solid Growth segments allows • Changes in
waste, or household waste, municipalities, states, 2016 merger.
for more fuel prices.
and industrial and commercial • Top 3 competitors – Waste etc.
competitive • The three major
waste. This industry also Connections, Republic contract bids as players made
includes transfer stations in Services, and Waste • Start up capital is high full-suite • New, more many
which waste is relocated from Management Inc - have given the capital solutions can be stringent acquisitions
local vehicles to long-distance 45.5% market share. intensive nature of the offered. regulation.
over last five
automobiles for transport to business. years.
• Vertical
disposal facilities. • CWST is a significant regional • Changes in
integration • Recycling is now ≈35%
player but does not compete on price for
• Contracts generally prevents of municipal waste;
a national level with the largest
last over a year. companies from recycled recycling rates have
competitors.
paying “tipping commodities. risen steadily for 30
fees” to landfills. years.
1. Only US; Ibis World

175
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago1: The Actual Story of the Last Five Years
• Poor capital allocation: • Increased capex hurdle rate and focused on
• Doesn’t paid dividends while peers do. tuck-in acquisitions.
Capital allocation
• Capex of $770M over 10 years with no resulting increase • 5 year average Capex as a % of revenue
improved
of earnings power. dropped from 12.17% from FY2010-2014 to
• High leverage: 6x Debt/EBITDA while peers at 2.9x. 10.91% in FY2015-2019.
• Poor historical performance: up 11% over five years while peers up • CWST refinanced various tranches of debt
between 38% and 54%; guidance missed multiple times. Leverage went
and sold non-core assets; Leverage reduced
• Poor, and potentially corrupt, management. down
to 3.8x over 5 year period.
• Over 10 years, the Company has paid more than $80
• Management outlined 5 goals for 2021 in Aug
million to Casella Construction, Inc. a company of which CEO
2017 to drive growth and increase value.
John Casella is both a director and executive officer and his
brother is President. • Landfill price increased above inflation each
year since FY2015 – demand currently
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results Clear goals were exceeds supply for landfill capacity.
outlined - and • Cost of Operations as a % of collection revenues
achieved down 6.2% since FY 2014.
• Recycling commodity prices down 18% from
FY2018 to FY2019 (shrunk topline) but segment
EBITDA up 0.7M due to operational
improvements.
• Activist investor JCP Investment Management
Governance catalyzed the appointment of two new
improved, which kept independent directors.
management on • JCP was satisfied with the governance
track changes and confident that CWST would
no longer award contracts improperly.
1. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/911177/000141588915003029/ex992prec14a08569015_091015.pdf
176
Back to List
Casella Waste Systems Takeaways

CWST is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
Activist involvement • Governance was improved through new independent Can CWST Sustain its Market Position?
catalyzed CWST to fix key board members.
• CWST is a dominant regional player in the waste
issues • Leverage was refinanced and reduced. management industry.
• Landfill pricing increased above inflation each year; • Scale, strategically located landfill sites, long-term
and landfill capacity increased by 9.5% since contracts, and regulations impede new entrants.
FY2014.
• Route and fleet optimization, and fuel hedging lowered
CWST improved its Can CWST continue to grow faster than the industry?
collection operation expenses.
operations • Landfill supply / demand imbalance will CWST to increase
• Improved recycling model to reduce commodity risk by
prices and subsequently increase their margin faster than
passing increased cost to customers.
non-vertically integrated competitors.
• Investments in back-end technology, such as CRM and • Tuck-in acquisitions provide an avenue to realize top-line
ERM systems. growth and operational synergies.
• CWST is in an essential, non-cyclical industry of waste
management.
Is CWST poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Closing disposal sites (landfills) have led to a shortfall in
• Waste management is a mature industry with minimal growth
disposal capacity in key CWST markets of NY, VT, MA, ME,
CWST can capitalize on prospects.
and NH – creating a supply / demand imbalance that
favorable trends, and will give CWST pricing leverage. • Much of the operational efficiencies that have led to CWST’s
leverage its scale outperformance have been realized.
• Tuck-in acquisitions give CWST an avenue for future
growth. • And CWST is trading at its highest NTM EBITDA
multiple ever.
• Scale enables operational efficiencies that will allow
CWST to outcompete other regional players. • Recyclable commodity prices (pulp paper and carboard)
trending downwards.
177
Max Schieferdecker
816%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQCM:SLP
Rank: 27/104
178
Simulations Plus Overview
Simulations Plus is a pharmaceutical focused software
LTM1 EV/EBITDA Multiple
company based out of Lancaster, CA that provides software
programs and consulting services to guide early drug
discovery, preclinical, and clinical development programs. 2020 68.2x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 16.1x
0.0x 20.0x 40.0x 60.0x 80.0x
NTM P/E 23.12x 113.02x Z
EBITDA 7.48M 12.49M
1There was no sell-side coverage in 2015, so LTM EBITDA were used for the sake of comparison 179
Simulations Plus Business Model
Primary Products Context Sales by Product
• Software licenses, Simulations Plus helps

usually in terms of 1 companies develop drugs
Software year or less, and a set • SLP currently offers 10 45.6%
54.4%
amount of customer software products, each for
support different purposes and for
different parts of the process
• Conduct contracted Software Licenses Consulting Services
consulting studies for • Their most popular product,
Consulting GastroPlus, is the most
companies who are
widely used commercial Sales by Geography
looking to outsource
software of its type by
15.3%
pharmaceutical companies
• If a small company doesn’t
have the resources to run the 16.3%
tests it wants to, or if large 68.4%
companies have a difficult
problem, SLP is brought in
North and South America Europe Asia
on the consulting side to run
studies or solve problems
through the consulting SLP is a capital light business as software companies do
Simulations Plus Interface Example product not require heavy investments in fixed assets
180
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Simulations Plus Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Biosimulation Software

mathematical models of biological • For a majority of SLP’s
processes which can provide • The switching cost for software products,
information about dose precision and existing customers is including the flagship
drug-drug interaction at a molecular extremely high due to the GastroPlus, there are 1 or
level. complexity of the 0 major competitors • If healthcare reform on a
• Use of
software, thus, new national level results in
• This is due to the simulations has
entrants will have a hard cheaper healthcare prices,
high barriers to become more
time gaining market share the profits of SLP’s clients
Market entry and initial widespread in the
Oligopoly may drop, which could
Structure • Relationships with startup costs drug
result in less R&D expenses
national and international • Most products each offer a development
Market Size $2.1B1 which means less business
health and regulatory unique combination of process
for SLP
Industry bodies are key to fund capabilities within the
> 10%1
Growth R&D and grow a strong software relative to their
client base competitors
1https://www.databridgemarketresearch.com/reports/global-biosimulation-market
181
• SLP recently acquired a contract research organization • SLP took advantage of an increase
(CRO), Cognigen, with the intent of expanding its in adoption of modeling and
Investments in
consulting revenues, but this was not appealing to simulation in the pharmaceutical
Sales and market by increasing their sales
investors as it was a lower margin business compared to
Marketing presence at conventions and
its software business
• It used to be micro-cap company with little trading volume and industry events around the world
no sell-side coverage, so many investors were not aware of the
company • SLP has made more acquisitions in
addition to Cognigen that have helped
steadily grow the top line
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results Accretive • DILIsym has allowed SLP to grow
Acquisitions their consulting product faster
• Lixoft will provide SLP with the
ability to expand their European
reach as well as grow their software
• In May 2019, the Pharmaceuticals

and Medical Devices Agency in Japan
added licenses
Several Big Deals • In July 2019, a 5-year, potentially
revolutionary research collaboration
with the FDA’s Center for Veterinary
Medicine
182
Back to List
Simulations Plus Takeaways
SLP is a Great Business – 5/5 Future Outlook
Can SLP Sustain its Advantages?
• SLP is in a niche sector that is extremely specialized
with only one main competitor (Certara) • SLP has been the leader in its field for a
over 20 years, so it has established
• There are high switching costs and a network is
SLP has a Moat itself in an industry with few players
extremely important to be successful in their industry
• As long as competitors don’t just copy
• Their customers are in the healthcare industry, which
the software, their advantage should be
will likely never slow down unless everyone dies
sustainable
Can SLP continue to grow?
• Both cash on the balance sheet and operating cash flows
are about 34% of revenue for FY19 • The simulation industry is just starting to
grow, and being an established player in
SLP is in Great • The gross margin is very high for a company that brings
the industry, SLP will no doubt continue to
Financial Shape in nearly half of its revenues from consulting, at 73%
grow as it expands into new markets and
• SLP has no debt and pays out a quarterly dividend of adds more products
$0.06 per share
Is SLP poised to continue to outperform?
• SLP recently rolled out their StrategiesPlus COVID-19 • Even if SLP just grows at the projected 5-
ACT Program year CAGR of 15%, which is a conservative
• The world needs vaccines and drugs to fight COVID as estimate, the stock will outperform the
COVID-19 Presents a soon as possible, and modeling and simulation are the
market comfortably
Great Opportunity to means to enhance the forecasts of clinical trials before
they happen so less time is wasted • As long as SLP continues to grow at a high
Show Off
• With this tech on display for the world to see, there will rate, slight multiple contraction from its
likely be a surge in the demand for their product in the ATH will not be detrimental to its
future outperformance
183
Owen Stimpson
780%
5 Year TSR
AIM:FDEV
Rank: 28/104
184
Frontier Developments Overview
EV / LTM Revenue
Frontier Developments plc develops and publishes video games
for the interactive entertainment sector in the United Kingdom
and internationally. It develops games across various platforms
using its cross-platform technology.
2019
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020
Stock Price £2.21 £19.04 2015

Market Cap £74.39M £731.31M
0x 1x 2x 3x 4x 5x 6x
Enterprise Value £64.43 £726.57M
PE NA 55.58x
Revenue 22.8M 89.7M
EBITDA 1.8M 20.3M
185
Frontier Business Model
FDEV makes and sells their own

Creating and video games.
Frontier develops and self-
Self-
publishes video games for a
Publishing • Historically, FDEV was a “work-
variety of platforms.
Video Games for-hire” developer. Sales by Division
• Now, FDEV develops their own

games and publishes them
100%
themselves.
• FDEV aims to create high quality

game franchises, which they can Self-Published Video Games
continue to update through new
versions or in-game expansion
packs. FDEV is a medium capital intensity business due
Sample Frontier Games to the cost of developing new games
• FDEV seeks to partner with

Frontier publishes video developers to help them publish
Frontier
games made by other their games and bring them to
Publishing
developers. market.
186
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Frontier Competitive Analysis High Threat

• A poor game
release can
Video Games Market Monopolistic tarnish a
• Developer talent
Industry in the US Structure Competition
is necessary to • Game franchises franchise and
• Shift towards digital
Market Size $63.4B1 make high- develop loyal harm its
Includes all video game related rather than physical
quality games. fanbases who solidify associated
industries in the US. Game Industry distribution of games.
> 10%1 the game’s community.
development, publishing, and Growth community and are • Enabled FDEV
• A major cyber
retail sales make up the • Games can take repeat customers. to focus on self-
majority of the industry along breach can
years to develop publishing
with the development and sale • In 2019, top four competitors tarnish a
and so significant games.
of gaming consoles. earn 29.9% of total industry • Network effects: the brand and
start up capital is • Games have longer
revenue. more players a stop players
required. lifespans and are often
game has the better from playing.
• Publishers of games capture played longer than
it is. • New
significant portion of profits • Technology is one-year but
• Especially technologies
with low incremental costs required to port continually updated
online can eclipse
(given that most games are now games to through expansion
multiplayer existing
purchased digitally). multiple packs, updates ,etc.
experience. technologies
platforms. forcing
companies to
adapt quickly.
1. Only USA; Ibis World

187
• Transition made almost entirely in two
• FDEV will not be able to make the transition from being a
years.
“developer for hire” to a self publisher.
• Shift to self-publishing has increased
Self-publishing has
• The quality of FDEV’s game IP is low and will be outcompeted by gross margins from 30% in FY2013 to
been a success
major players. 60% in FY2019.
• “Elite Dangerous” will not be a franchise quality game. • FDEV has successfully developed and
launched multiple game franchises.
• Game platforms are shifting rapidly – publishers with significant
scale, like EA and not FDEV, are best suited to adapt. • Focus on games where it has unique
• Trends seem to indicate a greater importance of mobile, competency, such as “Tycoon games.”
which is not a focus of FDEV. • Jurassic World Evolution sold 1M units in 5
Game IP weeks.
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results development has
• Elite Dangerous continues to be popular since
been a success
its 2014 launch, crossing 3M unit sales in
2019.
• Planet Coaster is a leader in the tycoon genre.
• PC and console games still 53% of global

video game market revenue; mobile is 35%.
• Mobile game market less of a focus on quality
FDEV capitalized on and has low barriers to entry – less attractive,
the right platforms therefore, for FDEV.
• Proprietary COBRA software enables FDEV to
port its games quickly and easily across
various platforms.
188
Back to List
Frontier Takeaways
FDEV is a Solid Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
• FDEV is no longer reliant on securing contracts with Can FDEV Sustain its Market Position?
major publishers. • FDEV has two proven franchises which have
FDEV’s transition to self-
publishing worked • FDEV can capture higher margins associated with demonstrated longevity, have continued to grow, and
publishing games, evidenced by the 100% gross continued to be monetized.
margin increase from FY2013 to FY2019. • FDEV’s games are leaders in their receptive niches with
• Elite Dangerous sustained popularity since 2014 strong communities: Elite Dangerous in space flight
release; four major updates made since; 3M units sold; simulation genre; Planet Coaster in tycoon genre.
FDEV has created games strong critical acclaim.
with long-term franchise Can FDEV continue to grow faster than the industry?
potential • Planet Coaster sustained popularity since 2016; 11
• FDEV has new self-published games in the pipeline and has a
separate theme packs; 2M units sold; leader in tycoon
strong track record of success so far.
genre.
• Frontier publishing anticipated to be material contributor to
• FDEV seeks to continue to build on existing franchises future growth.
through new releases. • Core games have remained popular: Elite Dangerous’ highest
• Views games as a “service” to be continually avg steam players achieved in May 2020 despite 2015 launch.
updated and monetized. Is FDEV poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Launched new Planet Zoo game recently; secured “major • Core games poised to continue to succeed given sustained
FDEV has identified global IP license for a future game release in 2021.” success.
avenues for future growth • Frontier publishing initiative has secured 3 clients as of • Multiple avenues for future growth: new self-published
November 2019. FDEV has essentially transitioned from games, frontier publishing initiative, potential licensing of
being a developer for hire and relying on publishers to Cobra.
vice versa.
• FDEV trades at a reasonable 26x NTM EBITDA, which is at a
• Enables FDEV to capture higher margins. substantial discount to FDEV’s peak multiples in 2017 which
• Potential possibility to license COBRA software. were as high as 53x.
189
Max Schieferdecker
768%
5 Year TSR
ASX:ALU
Rank: 29/104
190
Altium Overview
Altium is a tech company based in La Jolla, California, that NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
develops and sells computer software for the design of
electronic products. 2020 33.6x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 13.9x
0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x
Enterprise Value 500.65 AUD 4.35B AUD
NTM P/E 23.27x 56.75x Z
Statistic CY 2015 CY 2019
Revenue 85.21M USD 186.55M USD
EBITDA 28.64M USD 71.14M USD
191
Altium Business Model
• Software that is used ALU helps electrical engineers 9.7%

to design printed design circuitry boards
circuit boards 9.9%
• Printed circuit boards (PCBs)
Boards and • Operates under the
are key to the development of 80.3%
Systems Altium Designer,
electronics and smart
Circuit Studio, and
connected products
Solidworks PCB Boards and Systems Microcontrollers and Embedded Systems
brands • Every laptop, Electronic Parts, Search and Discovery
smartphone, etc. has a
• Tools for embedded PCB in it Sales by Geography
Microcontrollers software • The design of PCBs for 8.8%
and Embedded development complex devices requires
Systems • Operates under the sophisticated electronic 16.1% 40.6%
TASKING brand design automation software
• Delivery of part-level • Several high profile 34.5%

intelligence to the companies use ALU’s
Electronic Parts, electric design products, including Tesla, Americas EMEA China Rest of World
Search and engineering Apple, and Google
Discovery community • ~60% of revenue is recurring ALU is a capital light business due to the lack of
• Operates under the as most of ALU’s products are manufacturing need to produce products
Octopart brand sold as a subscription
192
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Altium Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Printed Circuit Boards
The players in this industry design,

manufacture, and sell printed circuit
boards for a variety of applications. • High levels of technical
know how are required to
• Great management team
enter and be competitive
who is able to execute • More and more of
• Existing players already • Low individual risks
plans successfully everyday life is
have good relationships • Only the general business
Market Monopolistic • Great relationships with revolving around
with many of the high- risks such as execution and
Structure Competition existing customers the use of
profile customers macroeconomic risks
• Market-leading product in electronic devices
Market Size $61.34B1 • High up-front R&D costs
terms of quality and ability
are needed to develop a
Industry
MSD1 high-quality product
Growth
1https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/printed-circuit-board-market
193
• Altium was relatively well known at the time for a small-cap • In 2016 ALU set a goal to be the
Australian stock and had been performing very well going into market leader in PCB design software
June 2015 • These goals (more
• There was just not enough hard evidence to justify quantitatively) were $150m in
an extremely high jump in price at the time given PCB revenue and $200m in total
high growth targets were just speculation at the time revenue by 2020
• There was also the concern that it was trading at high • They also aimed for EBITDA
multiples historically margins to be at least 35%
• Although those figures were quite
Execution of aggressive (doubling revenue in 4
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results Clear Growth years), throughout the process,
ALU had continually performed
Plan well above the minimum growth
rates to achieve those goals
• They would have achieved
those goals if it weren’t for
COVID
• ALU focused a lot of its efforts on
decreasing costs, as EBITDA margins
did hit its goals and grew from 28.3%
in 2015 to 39.98% in 2020 (CAGR of
7.2%)
194
Back to List
Altium Takeaways
ALU is a Very Good Business – 4.5/5 Future Outlook
• Low churn – once customers use the product, its hard Can ALU Sustain its Advantages?
to go back to not using it • ALU is the leader in its segment and
• Short-term economic hit can be a long-term benefit competes mainly against other
ALU is in a Good as a result of looking out for their clients in difficult fragmented players with lower quality
Financial times products
Position Despite • ALU has no debt and a robust cash balance that puts it in a • Will likely be able to retain its existing
Lower Sales fantastic position to back up their high growth potential large customers and its products are
• The solid management team has driven their past well liked
success and has put them in a strong position for
Can ALU continue to grow?
future growth
• ALU is in the process of revamping its
business model which includes expanding
• Altium 365 was released early in May 2020 due to the need
for the product because of the coronavirus pandemic
into the other areas of the PCB supply
chain, which will no doubt catapult further
• It is a platform that digitally connects electronic design
growth
to the supply chain through to the manufacturing floor
• It allows customers to continue their business Is ALU poised to continue to outperform?
Strong launch in
from anywhere while still being able to connect
the Midst of with anyone
• Because COVID did slightly hurt ALU, its
COVID-19 • Over 2,600 companies and 5,000 active users have already
numbers are down and its not trading at
joined the platform since its launch ATH multiples
• This goal of this platform is to change Altium from a • However, the mid-to-long-term outlook for
maintenance-based perpetual company into a capability- ALU is still very positive and will likely
based SaaS company continue to outperform
195
Owen Stimpson
752%
5 Year TSR
OM:BIOT
Rank: 30/104
196
Biotage Overview In Swedish Krona (Kr)
BIOT provides technologies and solutions for separating EV / NTM EBITDA

molecules and synthesizing chemical substances. BIOT’s
customers include pharmaceutical companies, biotech
2019
companies, and academic institutes.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Stock Price 17.2 Kr 137 Kr
Market Cap 1.1B Kr 8.93B Kr

0x 10x 20x 30x 40x
PE 17.55x 58.61x
Revenue 610.5M 1.10B
EBITDA 89.4M 243.3M
197
Biotage Business Model
Sales by Division
BIOT creates full
BIOT offers solutions for separating
solutions for 35%
molecules and synthesizing chemical
separating
substances. 3%
50%
molecules and
• Enables customer to speed up drug
synthesizing 12%
development (saves chemists from
Full chemical
laborious work), improve diagnostics, and Organic Chem Scale-Up
solutions substances.
streamline research.
Solutions include Biomolecules Analytical Chem
• Customers include pharmaceutical
equipment,
companies, hospital labs, universities, and
support, software,
government agencies.
consumables, and Sales by Geography
• 4 distinct end markets:
service.
• Organic chemistry (primarily for 30%
design of new drugs).
• Scale-up (industrial scale solutions 44%
for production of
pharmaceutical/food products).
• Biomolecules (primarily for design 26%
of new drugs). Americas EMEA APAC
• Analytical chemistry (food safety
testing and patient sample
Sample BIOT products. preparation).
BIOT is a medium capital intensity business.
198
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Biotage Competitive Analysis High Threat

Oligopoly /
Laboratory Supply Market • Direct sales
Monopolistic • Need to remain
Structure team: 95% of
Wholesaling Competition
BIOT sales are at the forefront
Industry Market Size ≈$10B1 • BIOT seeks patents for direct. of science to be
applicable products. competitive.
Industry
Operators in the Laboratory LSD1
Growth • Diversified
Supply Wholesaling industry • Technological customer base: • Product failure
engage in the wholesale • Industry definition overly
expertise required to no customer or
distribution of laboratory, broad: BIOT’s products help
develop products. >5% of sales. manufacturing • Increased research
scientific and school only with separating molecules
and synthesizing chemical • High startup issues. in biomolecules and
equipment and supplies. This cannabis.
substances. capital (BIOT
industry excludes wholesalers • Global reach.
• BIOT is one of the largest has over 300M • Exposure to
that predominantly distribute
players in the flash purification in R&D spend politically risky
medical, hospital and dental
subset of the industry and a since 2015). • 52% sales are
equipment and supplies. international
leader in other subsets of the aftermarket and
markets (i.e.
industry (such as automated recurring.
• Regulatory barriers. China which is
separation of wastewater). key end
• BIOT pioneered automation • Reputation and market).
tech for various stages of drug clout.
R&D.
1. US only; IBIS World.

199
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • BIOT expanded to new geographies
through new sales offices: Seoul in 2016,
Italy and India in 2017, Belgium,
• BIOT has been successful recently and grown both topline and EPS Netherlands and Luxembourg in 2018.
– but its growth is bound to taper off soon. • Sales outside NA grew at 15.8%
• New competitors will enter and begin to capture share from CAGR from 343M in FY2015 to
BIOT, or at least prevent them from growing. 617M in FY2019.
BIOT grew
• BIOT expanded penetration into new end
• Gross margin down 4% from 2015 to 56%.
markets:
• Analytical chemistry (food
production) through 2018 Horizon
acquisition.
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results • Biomolecules through 2019
PhyNexus acquisition.
• BIOT consistently invested >7% of sales into
R&D each year.
• Largest launch in company history in 2018
BIOT protecting its
with launch of new tech platform, flash
positioning
purification system, and consumable line.
• Continued to invest in software (a competitive
advantage relative to competitor products).
• BIOT invested in fine tuning manufacturing
Gross Margin processes and making them more automated.
expanded • Gross margin rose to 62.2% in FY2019
from 56.1% in FY2015.
200
Back to List
Biotage Takeaways
BIOT is a High Quality Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
• BIOT operates in a highly specialized industry in Can BIOT Sustain its Market Position?
which it has experience and capabilities. • BIOT has a wide moat created by strong barriers:
• BIOT has patents which insulates its products from patents, regulations, and technological advantages.
competitors. • BIOT operates in a specialized industry.
BIOT has a moat • Regulatory barriers. • BIOT has direct customer relationships and low
• BIOT sells 95% of its product directly meaning it has customer concentration (losing one customer will not
direct relationships with its customers. have a major impact on its position).
• Also provides BIOT with valuable feedback • BIOT has a strong reputation.
which it uses to develop new products. Can BIOT continue to grow faster than the industry?
• BIOT leveraged its strong products and grew in core • BIOT has industry leading tech (enabled through R&D
end markets internationally and in new markets. spend) that will enable them to continue to capture
• Expanded international presence, especially in Asia (i.e. market share.
China and South Korea) by establishing sales teams. • Opportunities to expand direct sales presence in EMEA
(BIOT still uses many distributors in this region).
• Expanded into new end markets:
BIOT grew • Biomolecule segment and new acquisitions could catalyze
• Expanded to biomolecule end market which is growth,.
just 3% of current sales but represents avenue
Is BIOT poised to continue to outperform the market?
for future growth.
• Strong market position, moat, and avenues for growth.
• Expanded presence in food safety.
• Industry standard multiple is roughly 20x earnings, at
• Identified Cannabis market as area for growth. nearly 50x earnings BIOT will need to continue to greatly
• BIOT can continue to grow internationally and increase outperform peers to justify its premium valuation.
BIOT has a runway for penetration in core end market of organic chemistry. • Currently no major competitors, but if BIOT
growth • Biomolecule segment could be major contributor to continues its growth trajectory it is likely to attract
future growth. new entrants.
201
Max Schieferdecker
732%
5 Year TSR
ASX:AQZ
Rank: 31/104
202
Alliance Overview
Alliance Aviation Services is a small airline based in Brisbane, NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
Queensland, Australia, that flies a variety under-served routes
as group charter flights and as normally scheduled flights. 2020 6.1x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 3.0x
0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x
NTM P/E 7.37x 14.92x Z
Statistic CY1 2015 CY1 2019
1HY ends on 12/31, so CY numbers are easily available for comparison 203
Alliance Business Model
Contract Air • Group flights on a routine AQZ transports passengers 4.5% 0.4%
Charter schedule set in advance around all parts of Australia 6.7%
Services by their clients
• Most of their revenue comes
• Providing aircraft, crew, from the transportation of
Wet Leasing maintenance, and workers and contractors to 14.3%
Services insurance to third-party and from remote project sites
airline operators of major mining and energy
companies 61.7%
Regular • Normal consumers
Passenger purchasing tickets to • In addition to the products
Transport travel on one of AQZ’s already mentioned AQZ also
(RPT) pre-determined routes offers 12.5%
• ad-hoc charter flights
primarily through their
surplus capacity
• aviation services, such Contract Charter Wet Lease RPT Ad-hoc Charter Aviation Services Other
as selling or leasing
aircraft and aircraft
parts as well as line and AQZ is a capital intensive business due to the large
heavy maintenance amount of facilities and equipment needed to operate
An Alliance Airlines Fokker 100 service to other airlines an airline.
204
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Alliance Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed in
Non-Scheduled Air the Industry
Transport in Australia
The players in this industry offer a
range of services, including chartered • Strong repeat customer
air transport for passengers and base
freight, air training for pilots, private • The major players in
• Relatively low debt
air transport for individuals and Extremely high up-front the Australian
• balance compared to other
businesses, and aerial works services costs domestic aviation
airline companies
such as skywriting. • The coronavirus market are facing
• Must take on a lot • Very little to no load factor
precautions could go financial struggles
of debt in order to risk for many of AQZ’s
on for a lot longer than • Virgin Australia
Market finance operations operating segments due to
Oligopoly expected, making safe, entered
Structure and equipment contractual agreements
close-quarter flight administration
purchases early on • Fleet simplicity allows for
Market Size $1B1 very hard in April and
• High regulatory barriers more flexibility across the Qantas isn’t
Industry set by the government organization as all pilots
LSD1 doing too well
Growth know how to fly every either
plane
• Only Fokker aircraft
1https://www.ibisworld.com/au/industry/non-scheduled-air-transport/473/
205
• Very large statutory loss in H1 2015 (CH 2 2014) due to the
impairment of their fleet • In late 2015, AQZ purchased 21
• This was mainly caused by a downturn in Fly-In-Fly-Out additional Fokker aircraft from
Austrian Airlines
activities in the coal seam gas industry, which AQZ was Expanded Fleet
• Austrian was in the process of
overly exposed to
retiring the planes, so it was a
• Stock price dropped 50% when H1 results came out and great deal for both parties
the EPS was -0.24 AUD compared to 0.06 AUD in H1 2014
• Half of the engineering force was laid off in 2015 and began • In 2016, AQZ began flying the
outsourcing their maintenance to Austrian Technik in Brisbane to Emerald route through a
Bratislava, Slovakia wet lease agreement
Virgin Australia • In 2017, more routes to
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results underserved Queensland cities
Partnership
were added to that partnership,
which greatly expanded AQZ’s
reach of the greater Australian
population
• In addition to the expansion
caused by the VA partnership, AQZ
Entered More also expanded its presence
Markets throughout all parts of Australia
• This was done both through
contracts as well as RPT
206
Back to List
Alliance Takeaways
AQZ is a Solid Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
Can AQZ Sustain its Advantages?
• AQZ operates in a niche within the broader
• So long as AQZ doesn’t expand too
Australian aviation market in the sense that they
quickly and forget the fundamentals
operate primarily as a FIFO charter service for
that got them to where they are today, it
mining companies
is highly unlikely any competitors will
• The companies are loyal to AQZ because they be able to take market share away from
have historically had excellent on time them given the strong relationships
performance, which is valued highly with their customers and their
AQZ has a Moat
• According to one of their clients, every simplistic fleet
hour late the incoming flight is, A$50k
is lost
Can AQZ continue to grow?
• They have a good balance of products so they are not
• With the administration of Virgin, it is
only reliant on one revenue stream, and future
likely that AQZ will be able to capture
growth will likely come from those other categories,
some of their route network that Virgin
such as RPT and wet leasing
gives up as AQZ brings on more planes
Is AQZ poised to continue to outperform?
• AQZ has grown top-line at a CAGR of 11.4%, but, • Given the large amount of multiple
while EBITDA margins have increased since 2015 expansion that has taken place (now
(their statutory loss year), there has been a trading at ATHs), it is unlikely that any
Decent Financial downward trend since 2010 (30.63% vs. 24.13%) normal rate of EDITDA growth will allow
Profile AQZ to continue to outperform
• A decent cash balance is present on the balance sheet,
and, for an airline company, the debt level isn’t too bad, • Some multiple contraction will likely be
as it can easily be covered by the current asset balance seen as well
207
Owen Stimpson
731%
5 Year TSR
ASX:DTL
Rank: 32/104
208
Data#3 Overview In Australian Dollars (AUD)
Data#3 is an Australian IT services and solutions provider. DTL EV / NTM EBITDA

has vendor technologies that span across cloud, mobility,
security, data & analytics and IT lifecycle management. DTL also
2019
supplies consulting, project services and managed services.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Market Cap $126.26M $800.67M

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x
PE 14.24x 37.87x
EBITDA 15.8M 29.2M
209
Data#3 Business Model
Supply/management of DTL is a value-added software Sales by Segment
customer software vendor.
Software licenses, deployment of
19%
Solutions software, and consulting • DTL provides entire range of
for effective software enterprise IT solutions:
use. procurement, 81%
implementation, and
Software / Hardware Services
Help customers maintenance.
maximize value from
Infrastructure technology • DTL is a software vendor for
Solutions infrastructure: servers, range of software products Sales by Geography
storage, networks from Microsoft, Adobe, Palo
and devices. Alto Networks, etc. 1%
Project services for the • DTL helps customers

design and deployment (companies and
of technology solutions; 99%
governments) complete
support services digital transformations to
Services Australia Other
for annuity-based adapt to cloud, improve
contracts; and people cybersecurity, leverage data ,
solutions for the etc.
provision of staff. DTL is a low capital-intensive business.
210
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Data#3 Competitive Analysis High Threat
Competitive What’s Changed

Advantages in the Industry
Market Monopolistic
Structure Competition • Brand
Australia Software reputation and • Erosion of major
Suppliers Industry Market Size 13B1 scale. supplier
Industry relationship.
Industry operators primarily > 10%1
Growth • Product
wholesale computer software
and provide services related to selection: DTL • Data breach /
• 60% of DTL revenue • Data analytics,
computer software. The • DTL is the largest enterprise has major technical
is under contract. cybersecurity, and
industry includes distribution software supplier in Asia relationships failure.
Pacific. digital
of physical software, digital with many
transformation
downloads and related after- • Range of software / major suppliers.
• Competes with other Software • Loss of major more of a focus for
sales service, but excludes services provided.
vendors such as FirstFocus and customer. companies.
consulting services. • Experience: DTL
DSC-IT.
has completed
many digital • Customers go
• Also competes against
projects and direct to software
customers going directly to
understands creators.
software creators (i.e.
Microsoft). process well.
1. https://www.ibisworld.com/au/industry/software-suppliers/5463/
211
• Concerns were valid:
• Margins remain low at 2.3%
• Product reselling not that attractive of a business: low margin and
EBITDA margin.
barriers to entry are not that high.
• Barriers to entry are still not high.
• DTL has been around since the 70s – market trends may represent • DTL made the best of its industry by
an opportunity, but DTL is and old company not suited to capture it. growing service revenue from 168M in
DTL capitalized on
the business model FY2015 to 262M in FY2019, which is
• EPS has fluctuated each year but is down 30% from FY2011. higher margin.
• EBITDA margins rose from 1.8% to
2.3%.
• Strong relationships with software
EPS Results
Return Breakdown: creators (i.e. Microsoft) and value-added
services created a moat.
• DTL capitalized on industry trends,

specifically the cloud.
DTL did not lose • Cloud revenue increased at 66% CAGR
positioning from 47M to 362M from FY2015 to
FY2019.
• Revenue grew at 14% CAGR to 1.48B.
• While EPS did fluctuate each year (especially

EPS grew in 2018 due to one-time events) 2019 EPS
was a record $0.12 and a sign of the future.
212
Back to List
Data#3 Takeaways
DTL is a Good Business- 3.5/5 Future Outlook
• DTL is the largest largest enterprise software Can DTL Sustain its Market Position?
supplier in Asia Pacific. • DTL is the leading company in its industry and home
• DTL has strong relationships with key software market of Australia and Fiji.
providers: • DTL has strong partner relationships that it continues to
DTL has a strong position
• On various partner advisory councils (I.E. build upon.
Microsoft and HP). • DTL has a strong reputation and service business.
• One of Microsoft’s 10 biggest partners
worldwide.
Can DTL continue to grow faster than the industry?
• Technological trends - such as emphasis on • DTL has benefited from Microsoft’s major investments in
cybersecurity, data analytics, and leveraging the cloud - cloud which enabled it to grow its cloud business through
drove demand. being a vendor of Azure products.
• DTL utilized its position to capture market share • DTL is not guaranteed to be partnered with
DTL capitalized on growth and grow top and bottom line.
industry trends company who invests in leading tech going
• Specifically relationship with Microsoft Azure forward (whether that is AI, virtual reality, etc.).
enabled DTL to grow cloud revenue to 362M.
• Expanded service offerings which are higher margin Is DTL poised to continue to outperform the market?
and a differentiator with competitors. • DTL is in an industry that is growing due to secular
trends towards digital transformation, but it is not a high
• Industry trends mentioned above likely to continue barrier to entry business.
and/or accelerate. • DTL is likely to grow because of its market position and
DTL has a runway for
• DTL has a strong position in Australia market and can relationships, but at 38x forward earnings I think its likely
growth
likely continue what its doing – growing by capturing it’s future growth will not justify its multiple, especially
market share as the market expands. with past hiccups that depressed EPS.
213
Max Schieferdecker
716%
5 Year TSR
NYSE:SKY
Rank: 33/104
214
Skyline Champion Overview
Skyline Champion is a designer and builder of manufactured LTM1 EV/Sales Multiple

and modular homes and factory-built, commercial solutions
and is headquartered in Troy, MI. 2020 1.0x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 0.1x
0.0x 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x 1.0x 1.2x

2.00x 40.00
Shares Outstanding 8.39M 56.78M 1.80x 35.00
1.60x
30.00
EV / NTM Revenue N/A 1.24x 1.40x
1.20x 25.00
EV / NTM EBITDA N/A 24.49x 1.00x 20.00
0.80x 15.00
NTM P/E N/A 50.73x 0.60x Z 10.00
0.40x
0.20x 5.00
Statistic FY 2015 FY 2019 0.00x 0.00
EBITDA -2.78M 108.83M Skyline Champion Corporation (NYSE:SKY) - TEV/Total Revenues
215
Skyline Champion Business Model
• Broad range of manufactured SKY mass produces and sells 4.3%
Factory- and modular homes, as well affordable homes 6.1%
Built as park model RVs, ADUs, and
Housing commercial modular • Through its assembly line
structures production system, SKY can 89.5%
manufacture homes at a fraction of
• Transportation of homes and the cost of an on-site home
U.S. Manufacturing and Retail Canadian Manufacturing and Retail
recreational vehicles from • SKY has 38 manufacturing facilities, Corporate/Other
Logistics
manufacturing facilities to many of which are located in states Sales by Geography
retailers with high numbers and growth of
manufactured home sales 12.0%
• Average price of homes were $61k in
the U.S. and $84K in Canada, with 16.3%
prices ranging from $20k - $300k 71.7%
• Targeting lower-income,
millennial, first-time home-
buyers U.S. Canada Outside of NA
• Owns 21 direct retail sales centers

operated under the Titan Factory SKY is a capital intensive business due to high
Direct brand manufacturing costs
Examples of SKY’s factory-built housing products
216
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Skyline Champion Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
U.S. Manufactured
Housing
The players in this industry offer • Economies of scale play a

large role in the • Due to many codes and
single-family homes that are
manufactured housing regulations on the state,
constructed entirely in a factory and
market local, and national levels,
then transported to the site and
• SKY offers a diverse set of the risks of government
installed. • It is not easy for
high-quality products to interference are large • Greater access to
new players to
capture a large amount of • The housing market is cheaper financing
jump into the
the alternative housing heavily influenced by the that is
industry and be
Market market larger economic comparable to
Oligopoly profitable in the
Structure short run • No other substantial environment (e.g. financing other forms of
differentiating factors costs, employment rates, housing than in
Market Size $5.00B1 • 3 largest manufacturers of
from other manufactured etc. ) of the countries it the past
HUD code homes had a
Industry home companies however operates in
LSD1 combined market share of
Growth • External distributors are
76% (SKY is the second
largest at 17%) relied on heavily for 90% of
their sales
1https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/market-research-reports/manufactured-home-dealers-industry/
217
• There were questions among investors about whether or
not SKY was a competent manufacturing organization
• In late 2014, SKY sold its RV business for a very little ($981k)
• Prior to June 2018, Skyline and
because of decreasing revenues and persistent operating losses
Champion were 2 separate
• SKY was experiencing these negative trends despite a large companies with separate tickers
recovery in the RV industry which pushed was pushing it to peak • Champion was the larger
sales company, with 14% market
• Large player Cavco attempted to buy SKY in 2014 at a 50% share, while Skyline had 3%
premium, but SKY did not want to sell, signaling a lack of market share
desire to do what is best for their shareholders • When the two companies
merged, the combined market
Consensus vs Results share jumped to 17%, and
Extremely
Return Breakdown: Skyline’s ticker was adopted for
Accretive Merger the combined entity
• Thus, SKY, which was representing
a smaller company in the market,
was now representing the 2nd
largest (overtaking Cavco) and the
No EPS Estimates until 2019 largest publicly traded company
• This merger also allowed for a large
amount of synergies, as its adjusted
EBITDA margin improved from
6.7% to 9.2%
218
Back to List
Skyline Champion Takeaways
SKY is an Average Business – 2.5/5 Future Outlook
• Improved financing programs for manufactured Can SKY Sustain its Advantages?
homes from financial and government institutions • Given SKY’s only real advantages over
• Strong tailwinds are present from the eased its competitors are its value proposition
regulations by the Trump administration relative to its competitors, it is not
• However, large, industry-wide growth still does sustainable long term
not seem extremely promising
Interesting Industry
• Because of SKY’s large market share, anything good Can SKY continue to grow?
that happens to the demand of manufactured housing
will be very beneficial for SKY
• SKY will continue to grow, although it
doesn’t seem like the organic CAGR will be
• At the same time, any discovery of market very high
penetration would greatly impact SKY in a
negative way as well
• The most likely path to high growth would
be acquisitions of the fragmented bottom
20% of the market
• While top-line growth was high right after the
merger, FY19 Y/Y growth was much lower at <1% Is SKY poised to continue to outperform?
despite strong economic conditions • Much of the outperformance from the past 5
Mediocre Financials
• EBITDA margins have expanded due to synergies, and years came directly from the addition of
are decent for being a capital-intensive industry revenue and synergies from the large
• Cash flows are strong, as spend on PPE is small relative merger, which will not likely happen again
to net income and the only sizable debt is a revolving at that scale in the future given possible
credit facility that is manageable market penetration issues
219
Owen Stimpson
704%
5 Year TSR
XTRA:MUM
Rank: 34/104
220
Mensch und Maschine Overview
Mensch und Maschine Software is a leading supplier of EV / NTM EBITDA
engineering software, such as Computer Aided Design,
Manufacturing and Engineering, Product Data Management and 2019
Building Information Modelling/Management solutions.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Market Cap €102.46M €855.78M

0.00x 5.00x 10.00x 15.00x 20.00x 25.00x
PE 21.41 43.59x
EBITDA 12.4M 30.1M
221
Mensch und Maschine Business Model
Primary Product Context Sales by Segment
Develops proprietary MUM is a B2B engineering

software for engineering software company.
purposes: CAD/CAM/CE • MUM develops software for a
(computer aided design, variety of engineering
M+M 28.16%
manufacturing & purposes. 71.84%
proprietary
engineering), PDM • And at a variety of price
Software
(product data points ( from >€1000, to
management) and BIM <€100,000 per seat). M+M VAR
(building information • MUM has customers in many Sales by Geography
modelling). industries, including aerospace,
architecture, automotive, etc.
Custom versions of M+M • MUM also helps customers in
software offerings and Germany, Austria, and
Value Added
Autodesk software with Switzerland with custom
Reselling 49.65%
custom modifications. solutions (i.e. adding additional
(VAR) 50.35%
MUM also offers training functionality to one of their
services for their software. products).
• MUM resells Autodesk software Germany Rest
but adds value by creating
customer specific modifications MUM is a medium capital intensity business because
to the software. of the capital requirement to develop new software.
222
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Mensch und Maschine Competitive Analysis High Threat

• Reputation: • Security • Software has become

Market Monopolistic MUM has been breach. more of a competitive
Engineering Structure Competition in the industry advantage and
Software Market Size 25.6B1 since the 1980s
• Major
companies are
Market and has built a spending more on it.
Industry international
HSD1 reputation of • Accessing the software
Growth • High start up costs to player makes
Participants develop, modify, quality and through mobile phones
develop new software. large push
distribute, and sell software reliability. increasingly important.
• MUM is a leading player in into German
for a variety of engineering
the German speaking • Customers are sticky market. • Starting in 2012, MUM
tasks.
markets (Germany, • MUM can stopped distributing
due to how embedded
Switzerland, Austria). customize its standard Autodesk
their operations are • Customers
• Market still largely software – and software.
with the software. begin to
fragmented; MUM has experience • Acquired some
develop
has about 4.5% doing so. reselling
• Highly specialized end- software in-
market share. partners, and
markets and uses. house.
• MUM’s now directly
• Globally there are many experience and sells value-
• Reliance on added custom
big players in the space, customer base
Autodesk versions of
such as Dell, BenQ, and enables them to
Casio. software. Autodesk
see trends in
the industry. software.
1. https://www.theinsightpartners.com/reports/engineering-software-market
223
• Following the transition away from
distribution in FY2011, gross margins
• Any margin expansion from switching from distribution to reselling
increased from 36.5% to 53% and stayed
Autodesk software has already been realized.
Gross margins flat since.
• VAR segment will not be a major, material contributor to neither stayed flat – but • EBITDA margins have risen from 7.7% in
the bottom nor top line. EBITDA margins did FY2015 to 12.2% in FY2019.
not • Management has a “relentless focus
• Selling the distribution business was a mistake – and 2014 was the on costs” and has cut SG&A as a %
final year MUM will see any revenue from it. of revenue from 36.5% in FY0215
to 32% in FY2019.
• As companies view software more so as a
competitive advantage, demand for custom
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results solutions has increased.
• Autodesk switch to subscription initially
VAR has been a
reduced revenues, but increased long-term
success
cash flow due to recurring nature of future
revenue.
• VAR Segment EBITDA increased at 25% from
4.6M in FY2015 to 14.3M in FY2019.
• MUM now focuses on the higher margin, more
competitively insulated proprietary software.
Business model
• Acquiring reselling partners enabled MUM to
change worked
capture higher margin and get a better
understanding of their customers.
224
Back to List
Mensch und Maschine Takeaways

MUM is a High Quality Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
• Exiting the distribution business enabled MUM to Can MUM Sustain its Market Position?
capture higher margin, and focus on developing • MUM’s moat is strong.:
MUM’s business model proprietary software. • High start up costs
switch worked
• Also made MUM more in tune with the market • Sticky customers
and the needs of its customers. • Proprietary nature of software and niche nature of
• MUM’s investment in its proprietary software paid off industry.
as it grew software EBITDA at 28% CAGR from 8.2M in
FY2015 to 22.3M in FY2019.
Can MUM continue to grow faster than the industry?
• Also made smart acquisition of majority of
• MUM has top quality software and a strong reputation that
SOFiSTiK, which expanded offering.
MUM grew its top and will enable it to capture industry growth.
bottom line • Management’s focus on cutting costs grew MUM’s • MUM’s pivot to customization of their software and Autodesk
EBITDA margin each year to now 12.8% from 7.7% in software is in line with industry trends towards software as a
FY2015. competitive advantage.
• Transition away from distribution business model
enabled MUM to continue to capture higher gross
margins. Is MUM poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Likely to maintain industry position and likely to continue to
• MUM has a moat given the proprietary and niche nature see growth; however, engineering software space is a mature
of their software, the stickiness of customers, and its industry and unlikely to grow extremely quickly.
customization ability.
MUM has a potential • At 44x NTM earnings, MUM will need to grow much
• Autodesk reselling revenue now recurring. faster than the industry.
runway for future growth
• Can capture more market share in Europe and • Another new competitor or some other impediment to growth
internationally and has low incremental unit costs. will cause MUM to underperform given its valuation.
• MUM has increased its dividend each year since FY2015.
225
Max Schieferdecker
700%
5 Year TSR
ASX:SSM
Rank: 35/104
226
Service Stream Overview
Service Stream is a contracting company based in Melbourne,
LTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
Australia, that provides end-to-end asset life-cycle services
across essential infrastructure networks within the
telecommunications and utilities sectors. 2020 8.2x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 8.1x
6.0x 6.5x 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x
EV / NTM Revenue 0.27x 0.87
NTM P/E 8.51x 13.11 Z
EBITDA 28.18M 102.81M
227
Service Stream Business Model
Primary Products Context Sales by Division
• Network operations, SSM ensures Australia’s telco

Fixed maintenance, and and utilities are functional 31.7%
Communications minor works across
• The operating segments are 68.3%
the TelCo sector
split into two main divisions
• Engineering, design, • Fixed communications
and construction of and network
Network Telecommunications Utilities
both fixed and construction are part
Construction
wireless network of the
Sales by Geography
infrastructure telecommunications
division
• Utility asset • Energy & water and
installation, Comdain 100.0%
Energy and
inspection, and Infrastructure are part
Water
maintenance of the Utilities division
services
• They provide contracted
Australia
• Network services to major Australian
Comdain engineering, design, companies in the
Infrastructure and construction telecommunications and SSM is a capital light business as services don’t
operations utilities industries require a lot of machinery and raw materials.
228
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Service Stream Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Australian Infrastructure
Maintenance Services
• SSM is exposed to a small
The players in this industry conduct number of key clients that
preventive and reactive maintenance account for a substantial
and alterations to existing • SSM has a large pool of portion of revenue
infrastructure as well as major plants employees and
and capital works. • 54% of FY19
subcontractors (~5k in
total) revenue came from
• No material barriers to the Australian
entry • This allows them to government’s nbn • Increased
operate many
Market Monopolistic • Although the work is project which will presence of 5G
projects at the same
Structure Competition somewhat technical, it is end at some point technology
time
not difficult to learn • Revenue generation relies
Market Size $25B1 • It also provides a entirely on the needs of
familiarity factor
Industry customers
LSD1 because of their
Growth • Operating as a contractor
size
means that there is little
guaranteed long-term
stability
1https://www.ibisworld.com/au/industry/infrastructure-maintenance-services/5330/
229
• A couple contracts in relation to
• There had been a very steep decline in revenues and margins the large Australian government
in the 5 years leading up to 2015 nbn (national broadband
• This was due to substantial losses it incurred as a result network) project
of an unsuccessful joint venture • SSM was contracted with both
Multiple Large
• SSM requested a trading halt in 2013 in order to reassess construction and operations
Contracts were & management jobs over a 5-
their joint venture (JV), and the stock price had not
Secured year period in FY 16
recovered from that yet
• These projects, in addition to many
others, set the path for steady and
continued growth from 2016 to
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results 2019
• In December 2018, SSM acquired

Comdain Infrastructure for 161.7M
AUD
• This acquisition played a big role in
Successful the diversification of SSM more into
Acquisition utilities, as before ~80% of revenues
came from TelCo (it’s now ~55%)
• The acquisition resulted in
an increase in utility revenue
of~310K AUD in its first year
230
Back to List
Service Stream Takeaways
SSM is an Average Business – 2.5/5 Future Outlook
Can SSM Sustain its Advantages?
• While SSM does provide the necessary resources to
• SSM should be able to keep its size,
do the job, namely manpower and equipment, there is
which is its only real advantage over its
nothing otherwise special about them that makes
competitors
them a better contractor
• Most contracts are derived from relationships Can SSM continue to grow?
SSM Lacks a Strong within the industry and track record of success,
Moat • Given the high fragmentation of the
not unique characteristics broader infrastructure services industry
• However, the industry is quite stable in Australia, there are sufficient
• Telecommunications and utilities have acquisition targets to manufacture
become vital to everyday life, so maintenance artificial growth
of that infrastructure will always be in demand • Unlikely to continue to grow
organically
Is SSM poised to continue to outperform?
• Strong cash balance that substantially covers debt
• Although there wasn’t a high level of
• Organic revenue has returned to its pre-JV days multiple expansion, the 2015 EBITDA
while EBITDA margins have also doubled since the
numbers were artificially low due to the
Decent Financial same time
unsuccessful JV
Profile • ROCE has decreased since it took on the high levels of
PPE that came with its acquisition of Comdain • There is not a high amount of organic
• Contract pipeline is not guaranteed and relies heavily
upside growth potential, and more
on the demands of a few clients acquisitions are seemingly already priced
in
231
Max Schieferdecker
683%
5 Year TSR
AIM:ABDP
Rank: 36/104
232
AB Dynamics Overview
AB Dynamics is a machine manufacturing company based in
Bradford-on-Avon, UK that specializes in supplying automotive
testing equipment in addition to verification products and
solutions. 2020 24.5x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 10.6x
Stock Price ₤2.40 ₤19.30
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
Market Cap ₤40.32M ₤435.51M
Enterprise Value ₤33.29M ₤401.29M
NTM P/E 18.86x 34.47x Z
EBITDA 4.64M 12.60M
233
AB Dynamics Business Model
• Products used for the test ABDP tests vehicles before 14.7%
and evaluation of ADAS1, they make it on the road
Track
autonomous systems, and
Testing • Track testing allows
vehicle dynamics in real
customers (car 85.3%
life
manufacturers) to conduct
• Systems used to gain complex, multi-object
Laboratory precise measurement of scenarios with a simple to Track Testing Laboratory Testing and Simulation
Testing vehicle body and use software interface

Sales by Geography
component movements • These tests must be
1.7%
performed in order to satisfy
• Products used to evaluate internal or external 21.3%
dynamic characteristics of regulatory test requirements 47.6%
Simulation
vehicles in a virtual
environment • The regulatory process
can take a very long
29.4%
time for new features
• ABDP reduces the cost Asia Pacific UK/Europe North America Rest of the World
and time of developing

vehicles with their ABDP is a capital intensive business as design
products and services and manufacturing is done in-house
An AB Dynamics vehicle testing simulator
1Advanced Driver Assistance System 234

Low Threat
Medium Threat
AB Dynamics Competitive Analysis High Threat
Automotive Testing, Barriers To Entry Competitive Advantages Risks

What’s Changed
Inspection, Certification in the Industry
(TIC)
The players in this industry provide

services ranging from auditing and • Existing players already
inspection, to testing, verification, have strong relationships • Strong relationships with
quality assurance and certification. built with customers all major original
• A high level of equipment (car)
manufacturers (OEMs) and • Foreign currency risk as a
technological expertise is • Drivers have
test facilities result of significant
required in order to be become more
amounts of international
Market Monopolistic competitive • Effective and rapid reliant on cars
transactions
Structure Competition • No strong material deployment of IP with “smart”
• Limited control of pricing
barriers to entry other • Maintains top engineering features
Market Size $16.5B1 with resellers
than those however minds on its staff
Industry • Switching costs are high • No direct competitors that
MSD1
Growth given the price tag of the offer the same products
products in the industry
1https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/automotive-tic-market-175873215.html
235
• In October of 2017, the CEO at the
time, Tim Rogers, presented at
• Recently IPOed in 2013 so the market was still in the early the ShareSoc growth seminar
stages of identifying longer-term growth trends • There were many investors
• Nanocap company listed on the AIM exchange with a small present and the presentation
amount of quality investor resources was posted online through
piworld, which raised
Increased awareness about the
Publicity company and where their
opportunities were
Return Breakdown:
• In February of 2018, Tim did a sit-
Consensus vs Results down interview with piworld at
their new offices
• Favorable insight was
provided into the current and
future financial results
• Corporate development M&A was the
next step in growth and Tim Rogers
New CEO was
was not comfortable in that area
Brought in to
• In the first half year as CEO, James
Take ABDP to
Routh increased gross margins to
the Next Level 50.1% from 35.6% y/y by cutting
indirect employment costs
236
Back to List
AB Dynamics Takeaways
ABDP is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
• After their acquisition of rFpro, a simulation software Can ABDP Sustain its Advantages?
company, ABDP offers products for every stage of the • ABDP has very strong relationships with
vehicle R&D process its customers that are unlikely to be
ABDP has a Moat • These products are present in every major auto diminished in the future given the
manufacturer’s R&D facilities, thus giving them an success that many of them have had
advantage as they are already established in these with ABDP’s products so far
companies
Can ABDP continue to grow?
• Automotive industry spends more on R&D than any
other industry in the world1
• There are many industry trends that bode
well for future demand growth of ABDP’s
• China is looking to become a fully autonomous products
economy which means a lot of R&D spend within
Promising Industry their over 100 car companies
• It is likely that ABDP will continue to
develop new products as well as look for
• As self-driving cars become more of a reality, the more M&A opportunities in order to both
testing capacity needed for those new features organically and inorganically grow
becomes much larger
• High cash balance with no debt, despite recent Is ABDP poised to continue to outperform?
acquisitions, provides stability in uncertain times • COVID-19 has caused a large multiple
• Strong 5-year revenue CAGR of 35.6%, with a gross contraction and it the price has not
margin CAGR of 14.2% rebounded to pre-COVID levels yet
Strong Financial
• However, EBITDA margins have actually
Profile • There is no evidence of a long-term
decreased over the same time frame
detriment to ABDP’s strong growth figures,
• ROCE has also decreased since 2015, but this is mainly
due to high CAPEX as a result of new facilities being built, which means it is likely the stock will
which increase their production capacity greatly outperform given the relatively cheap price
1https://www.businessinsider.in/slideshows/miscellaneous/here-are-the-industries-that-are-spending-the-most-on-rampd
237
Owen Stimpson
650%
5 Year TSR
ENXTPA:SOI
Rank: 39/104
238
Soitec Overview
EV / NTM EBITDA
Soitec is a France-based international industrial company
specialized in generating and manufacturing high performance
semiconductor materials. 2020
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x
PE NA 30.71x
EBITDA 4.4M 164.2M
239
Soitec Business Model
Sales by Division
SOI is a semi-conductor 4%
SOI transforms bulk wafers material company.
Semi- into engineered wafers • SOI designs and
46%
Conductor (substrates) – which are the manufactures a variety of 50%
Substrates base upon which micro- substrates upon which
electronic chips are built. integrated circuit chips are
built.
• Substrates are the 200mm 300mm SOI Royalties / Other
main element in these
chips.
Sales by Geography
• Six distinct substrate
product lines; flagship 19%
37%
product is SOI wafer.
• SOI innovates to help make
chips smaller, increase
performance, and reduce 44%
energy consumption.
Demonstration of SOI’s value addition in the • SOI substrates are used in a
variety of chips found in US Europe Asia
wafer manufacturing process.
phones, cars, cloud
infrastructure, IoT, etc.
SOI is a high capital intensity business.
240
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Soitec Competitive Analysis High Threat

Global
Semiconductor & • Capital intensive and
Market highly specialized • Rise of 5G, which
Electronic Parts Structure
Oligopoly • SOI has
requires significantly
business – not Partnerships
Manufacturing Market Size 755.1B1 everyone can do with labs and
• Customer more RF SOI
concentration – products (SOI is the
atomic level work. universities
This industry manufactures Industry top five customers largest manufacturer
LSD1 across the
electronic components, which Growth 56% of FY2019 of these products).
Because of the high world that
are typically packaged in a • revenue.
enable better • Supply
discrete form with two or degree of • Top ten
• In the SOI subset of the R&D. shortfall of
more connecting leads or specialization, high customers
market, SOI has 65%-70% these
metallic pads. Connecting level of human capital 84%.
market share (based on their products due
these parts by soldering them is required (and not • 3500 patents
estimations). to elevated
to a printed circuit board available in every gives SOI a
• Technologies can demand.
creates an electronic circuit. A city). technological
• Major players dominate change quickly.
semiconductor device is an advantage.
electronic component made different segments of the • Rise of IoT and sue of
• Since the customer
with semiconductor material, value chain (i.e. Intel and • Limited number of semiconductors in
base is concentrated, • SOI has built
such as silicon. AMD for integrated chip suppliers. cars – increasing
securing the first a strong
manufacturing). demand for SOI’s
contract can be reputation. products.
challenging.
1. Ibis World
241
• SOI divested from its solar business in
• Negative gross profit in FY2014 – not a good indicator of future 2015 to focus on solely semiconductor
profitability. substrates.
Returned to • SOI increased its capacity utilization and
• Skeptical of the growth in the semi-conductor substrate industry
profitability found operational improvements which
and whether SOI could capture it.
increased gross margins.
• Lost focus on core business with foray into solar systems.
Now it does neither substrates nor solar panels very well. • Gross margin up from 15.5% in
FY2015 to 37.2% in FY2019.
• Weak balance sheet: over levered and low cash balance.
• Demand for SOI’s product increased rapidly.
• Rise of 5G and 4G LTE increased demand for
RF SOI substrates, of which SOI has 70%
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results market share.
• Increasing prevalence of semiconductors in
Industry grew fast
household items (IoT) and cars, and the rise of
cloud infrastructure contributed to demand
increases across SOI’s product lines.
• Revenue grew at 28% CAGR from
FY2015 to FY2020.
• SOI recapitalized by raising equity to pay

Balance sheet was
down debt; reducing Debt / EBITDA from
strengthened
39.8x in FY2015 to 1.7x in FY2019.
242
Back to List
Soitec Takeaways
SOI is a High Quality Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
Can SOI Sustain its Market Position?
• SOI divested from its solar systems business to • SOI’s moat is strong and it has built a strong reputation
SOI regained its focus focus on electronics. for excellence in the industry.
and footing • SOI issued new equity to pay down its unsustainable • SOI has invested an average 7% of revenue on R&D since
debt balance. 2015, and has partnerships with various universities and
labs.
• 5G, 4GLTE, rise in electronic cars, popularity of IoT, • One of SOI’s customer could vertically integrate -which
growth of cloud infrastructure, etc. – all increased means they could lose a major customer.
SOI capitalized on the demand for SOI products.
industry’s growth Can SOI continue to grow faster than the industry?
• SOI’s RF SOI and FD SOI substrates particularly strong
growth – with SOI holding commanding market share. • If SOI maintains its market position it will capture a
disproportionate amount of growth driven by 5G and other
• Trends that increased demand, such as IoT, cloud trends since they are the undisputed leader for the RF SOI and
infrastructure, 5G, and electronic cars, show no sign of FD SOI substrates.
slowing down.
• SOI believes electronic cars will go from 2M Is SOI poised to continue to outperform the market?
demanded to >20M by 2030. • SOI has a strong reputation and moat in an industry that is
• SOI anticipates 5G to have 55% global coverage poised to continue to grow.
SOI believes there is a • SOI has demonstrated that they can capture growth and
by 2025.
strong runway for growth market share over the last five years, it is not a stretch to
• If SOI can sustain is market position their growth
will likely be sustained solely by their capacity to believe they can continue.
produce their substrates – not by demand. • However, continued similar growth is largely
• However, SOI’s historical EBITDA is considerably lower predicated on macro growth – not SOI’s execution.
than their FCFE – SOI is a very capital intensive business • 5G does seem like it will be a major boost to
which depresses their cash flow relative to earnings. demand.
243
Max Schieferdecker
652%
5 Year TSR
AIM:YOU
Rank: 38/104
244
YouGov Overview
YouGov is an international research and data analytics group NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
based in London, UK, that helps companies, governments, and
news outlets gather actionable data for decision making. 2020 25.3x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 10.8x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
Market Cap £111.01M £861.67M
Enterprise Value £107.30M £843.41M
NTM P/E 14.94x 49.50x Z
EBITDA 7.37M 28.78M
245
YouGov Business Model
• Consistent surveys that YOU aids clients in developing 23.7%
Brand measure a client’s brand effective marketing strategies
Index image across 40 markets 43.9%
• YouGov provides companies
worldwide
with data and insights to help
them plan, develop, and evaluate 32.4%
• Audience planning and the impact of their marketing
segmentation tool that and communication activities Custom Research Data Products Data Services
Profiles
covers 19 markets • YouGov sends out a weekly set
worldwide of surveys tailored to certain Sales by Geography
7.5%
members to its “panel” (people
who sign up to take their 7.4% 29.8%
• Fast turnaround, custom
surveys for cash)
survey facilitation service
Omnibus 14.7%
across 40 markets • They then apply their
worldwide answers to those surveys
to their profile more 40.5%
generally to find
• Quantitative and similarities in order to
UK USA Mainland Europe Middle East Asia Pacific
Custom qualitative research perform high-quality data

Research directed by sector analysis and make YOU is a capital light business there is no
specialists accurate predictions manufacturing involved
246
Low Threat
Medium Threat
YouGov Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
Big Data and Business in the Industry
Analytics
The players in this industry offer data • High quality data as a result
collection and analysis tools for of a broad, worldwide panel
companies looking to make educated of over 9.5 million
business decisions. • Pew research
• No key barriers to entry conducted a study
• Anyone can send out a which proved so
• Failure to maintain the • Increased
survey and analyze the • Well known brand as a quality of their panel reliance on data
Market Pure results result of the public data
• Failure to achieve the for decision
Structure Competition • Few can do it publications
growth goals laid out making
effectively, • This is done through
however Ratings and Daily
Industry • YOU is consistently
> 10%1
Growth referenced by major
news outlets around
the world
1https://www.prnewswire.com/in/news-releases/big-data-and-business-analytics-market-size-is-projected-to-reach-usd
247
• New markets in 7 countries were
• In H1 2015, the low margin Custom Research division penetrated through organic
accounted for ~2/3 of YOU’s revenues Expanded into operations and affiliate partnerships
• This business was not very scalable due to the New Markets • 4 key bolt-on acquisitions took place
uniqueness of each client’s needs and Sectors which allowed YOU to expand the
presence of and enhance their previous
• The board had just come out with a very aggressive five year
offerings
growth plan, and there was little evidence at that point to
show that YOU would be able to meet those goals • YOU’s big goal in their first 5-year plan
was to build a connected, systematic
approach to data research
Rolled out
• In order to accomplish that goal, many
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results many New
new developments were made
Features and
• These included a new mobile
Offerings
app, analytics platform (Crunch),
and reports that are issued on a
freemium basis
• Management successfully facilitated
the growth of the higher margin data
Shifted Focus
products and services divisions while
to Higher cutting back on the custom research
Margin
• The custom research offering was also
Business revamped in order to increase margins
and focus on YOU’s unique value add
248
Back to List
YouGov Takeaways
YOU is a Very Good Business – 4.5/5 Future Outlook
• In a business world that has increasingly relied on
Can YOU Sustain its Advantages?
data analytics to make important business decisions,
YouGov provides quality resources to aid in making • YouGov has a track record of quality and
those decisions accuracy that it will likely retain until it
proves otherwise
YOU has a Moat • YouGov has a reputation for being extremely
accurate in their results (only pollster to get the • Even if other companies do reach YOU’s
2017 UK elections correct) quality, YOU has the legacy and was the
first to reach that level
• They are consistently used by many large
media, and global more generally, companies
Can YOU continue to grow?
• After FY 14, the board set up an extremely lucrative
• The demand for high quality data analysis
five-year incentive plan for the executive team
in the business world is not going to be
• This plan required that, in order to vest 100% of slowing down anytime soon
the options available, the EPS CAGR over the
• Because of the great reputation that
period had to exceed 25%
YouGov possesses, they will likely get a lot
• The final CAGR ended up being 34% of that business
Clear Plan for the • This prior success lends investors to believe that their
Future next five-year plan also has some merit Is YOU poised to continue to outperform?
• The 3 main goals are to double the revenue, • While there will likely continue to be
double EBIT margin, and achieve a EPS CAGR
impressive numbers coming from YOU, the
over 30%
stock is trading at ATH multiples and the
• YOU is also in the process of combining their divisions’
explicitly laid out growth plan has likely
PnL in order to align incentives and increase cross-
selling already been priced in
249
Elizabeth DeSouza
650%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQGS:NOVT
Rank: 39/104
250
Novanta Inc. Overview
Novanta Inc., headquartered in Bedford, MA, designs, manufactures, and
sells photonics, vision, and precision motion components and sub- NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
systems to original equipment manufacturers in the medical and
industrial markets worldwide. 2020 39.2x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 9.9x
0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x 50.0x
P/E 17.02x 72.38x Z
Revenue $373.6M $626.1
EBITDA $56.5M $111.1M
251
Novanta Inc. Business Model
NOVT supplies technologies to 14.3% 1.8% 40.6%
• Photonics medical and advanced industrial

OEMs 9.5%
solutions
Technology • Photonics segment designs &
• Vision solutions
Solutions manufactures solutions including
• Precision motion 13.1%
solutions laser scanning, laser beam delivery, 20.7%
and a variety of lasers U.S. Germany
Rest of Europe China
• Vision segment designs & Rest of Asia-Pacific Other
manufactures medical grade
technologies such as pumps and
Sales by Category
disposables, visualization solutions, 36.8%
wireless imaging & radio frequency
identification technologies 19.8%
• Precision Motion deals with optical
& inductive encoders, precision
43.3%
motors, and precision machined
Photonics Vision Precision Motion
components
• Sales are mainly made to OEM
NOVT creates high performance laser photonics
customers, both directly & through NOVT is capital intensive business, as it
solutions like that shown above
distributers manufactures its own products.
252
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Novanta Inc. Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Electronic Equipment &
Instruments
The players in this industry produce
electronic equipment, instruments, • Certain segments served by
electronic components and electronic NOVT are cyclical and
equipment mainly for the OEM experience downturns in • Increased
• High start-up costs • Proprietary motion, vision,
(Original Equipment Manufacturers) demand for capital regulation and
market. because of the capital and photonics capabilities
equipment, which focus on the
necessary for • Use of their technology negatively impacts NOVT medical device
manufacturing givers their customers a sales industry
Market
Oligopoly competitive advantage
Structure • Expertise in advanced • NOVT is subject to medical • Manufacturing
technology necessary • Breadth of technologies device regulation, which operations have
Market Size $350B1 offered and knowledge of
• Continuous investment in could hinder the approval been negatively
Industry R&D different market or sale of their products impacted by
> 10%1 applications distinguishes
Growth • NOVT sales could be Covid-19
NOVT from competitors
impacted by healthcare
Market characterized as an oligopoly industry cost containment
because of barriers to entry and and reform
differentiation of goods, however,
market concentration is low
1 https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/sectors/industries.jhtml?tab=learn&industry=452030 253
• In 2015, Novanta was called GSI Group and was entering a • Current CEO appointed in 2016 and has
transformational period managed the rebranding well
• The company saw its future opportunities as “so distinctly • Emphasis on growth in medical markets
different from the past” that they re-branded as Novanta and use of NOVT technology in precision
• NOVT had already undergone one rebranding in 2005 when Successful
industrial robotics have created a platform
it changed from GSI Lumonics Inc. to GSI Group, but this did Rebranding for growth
not spur major success for the company • In 2019, NOVT saw double-digit growth in
• Part of the rebranding plan was to invest in new their medical market sales (now accounts
technologies and shift toward medical end markets, which for over half of NOVT’s revenue)
put NOVT in mostly uncharted water as a company
• Part of the rebranding plan was to use
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results acquisitions as a way to expand
technology portfolio
• 3 acquisitions in 2017, which
outperformed strengthened positioning in
Successful medical markets
Acquisitions
• 2017 EBITDA margins reached 20%, a
& profitability goal NOVT initially set for
Innovation 2020
• 2018-2019 closed 5 acquisitions
• Expanded engineering capabilities,
creating the strongest innovation pipeline
in company history
254
Back to List
Novanta Inc. Takeaways
NOVT is a Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
Can NOVT Sustain its Advantages?
• NOVT manufactures very specific products that help • Proprietary technology portfolio that
customer’s manufacture better goods and give has been developed through R&D and
customers a competitive advantage acquisitions
NOVT has a Niche
• Barriers to entry are high • Breadth of knowledge developed
• NOVT products do not seem like a crucial part of the through years of experience and
manufacturing process, but rather something that acquisitions
would be one of the first things to go, should costs Can NOVT continue to grow?
need to be cut
• NOVT is investing heavily in innovation to
enhance their proprietary technology
position and long term growth
• Opportunity for applications in robotic
surgery, minimally invasive surgery, DNA
• Revenue growth seems to do mainly with acquisitions sequencing, and precision automation
• In years where no acquisition was made growth is
around 2.5% Is NOVT poised to continue to outperform?
Unsustainable Growth • Ok gross and EBITDA margins as 42.1% and 17.7%
• NOVT outperformance seems to be driven
respectively for FY 2019
by acquisitions thus far
• EBITDA margin goal of 20% was reached in 2017, but
has not been sustained, decreasing every year since • Future outperformance will be driven by
ability to generate organic growth or to
continue to make strategic acquisitions
255
Max Schieferdecker
643%
5 Year TSR
NYSE:CHGG
Rank: 40/104
256
Chegg Overview
Chegg is an online learning platform based out of Santa Clara, NTM EV/Sales Multiple
California that helps students do their homework, study for
tests, and write papers. 2020 12.6x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 2.0x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x
NTM P/E 188.60x 49.92x Z
Revenue 301.37M 410.93M
EBITDA 3.2M 49.16M
257
Chegg Business Model
Primary Product Context Sales by Product
• Monthly subscription
19.2%
Chegg service that gives full
Services access to Chegg’s
Chegg is a student’s best friend
resources
• Chegg’s most popular service
• Print textbooks and is Chegg Study, through
Required
eTextbooks for rent or which students can get
Materials
sale answers to a most textbook
questions in existence
• Chegg also offer writing
tools, live tutors, a math
solver, flashcards, and
internships 80.8%
• In FY19, 5.8 million

individual people paid for
Chegg’s products and Chegg Services Required Materials
services
CHGG is a capital light business as most of their revenue
Chegg textbook shipping comes from the software side of the business
258
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Chegg Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Online Tutoring Services
The players in this industry offer • Not very hard to get into • Chegg has already
tutoring services and resources via the
the industry established itself as the go-
internet. • Shift to online
• Services are not very to website for high school
learning and
capital intensive and and college textbook
technology in the
theoretically anyone could problems
classroom and at
offer them if they put in • Chegg is the only platform • Missing out on sales due to home has given
Market the effort to that offers all the services multiple people using the
Oligopoly students more
Structure • The main critical that is does under one same account opportunities to
characteristic that is vital subscription
Market Size $630M1 go online for
to be successful is being a • Chegg’s data collection far homework help
Industry reputable and trustworthy exceeds its competitors
MSD1
Growth source of information because they are involved
in all aspects of education
1https://my-ibisworld-com.libproxy.wustl.edu/us/en/industry-specialized/od6038/industry-at-a-glance#key-statistics-snapshot
259
• CHGG was first listed on the NYSE on 3/13/13, and it was • CHGG leveraged their client base
using a lot of the cash from the IPO to acquire unprofitable Shifted Focus to from the low margin print textbook
companies, such as Internships.com and InstaEDU, which Digital service to grow their online services
resulted in a lot of goodwill and intangibles on the balance revenue by 150%
sheet • In October 2017, CHGG acquired Math
• CHGG was burning a lot of cash to operate their low 42, a trusted math learning app,
margin textbook rental business, through which they which has allowed students to see the
didn’t even offer competitive pricing relative to the Key Acquisitions correct steps to solve math problems
competition to Expand using AI
Offerings • In May 2018, CHGG acquired
WriteLab, an AI-enhanced writing
Return Breakdown: platform, which has strengthened
their writing service tremendously
• During the month of May 2020, CHGG
jumped 49% due to all college
students taking finals online
• Many exam questions and
COVID-19 Pushed
answers can be found on Chegg
Finals Online
• This opened the door for many
students to pay for the subscription
just for one month to use while taking
finals
260
Back to List
Chegg Takeaways
CHGG is an Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
• With online finals likely being present for many Can CHGG Sustain its Advantages?
schools in Fall 2020, there will likely be another spike • There are no true competitors that
CHGG is in a Prime threaten CHGG’s one stop shop model,
in subscriptions
Position to Capitalize as many competitors just operate in one
• CHGG reels these students in with Study through SEO,
on Virtual School and then these students become aware of the other segment
features that a subscription offers them • As long as no new player comes along
• The gross margins are actually quite good (77%), and severely undercuts CHGG, they
however, the operating expenses are extremely high, as should be fine
a lot of R&D is required to continuously expand their Can CHGG continue to grow?
product offerings as well as improve their current • CHGG is making moves to expand the
CHGG has too Many products market they operate in, as they recently
Expenses • Interest expense is also quite high currently due to acquired Thinkful, a professional learning
$900M of convertible notes platform that helps students get jobs
• However, in the long run, this debt will likely not • Thus, CHGG is attempting to keep students
be an issue once they are able to scale on their service even after graduation,
• The actual total addressable market is smaller than which will lead to more customers overall
management indicates Is CHGG poised to continue to outperform?
• Not all students are in a financial position to pay • CHGG will likely continue to outperform,
$15 a month for the service
The Target Market is despite the high multiples that it currently
• For the most part, wealthier students are
Jobless disproportionately more likely to be Chegg customers
trades at (44x NTM EBITDA)
due to their possession of discretionary income • This is because of the high growth potential
• Approximately 86% of U.S. college students still available as well as the impending first
receive some form of financial aid1 ever fiscal year of profitability
1https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_cuc.asp#:~:text=Over%20a%20more%20recent%20time,and%20private%20nonp
rofit%20(90%20vs. 261
Max Schieferdecker
622%
5 Year TSR
OB:BOUVET
Rank: 41/104
262
Bouvet Overview
Bouvet is a consulting group based in Oslo, Norway, that
operates through six subsidiaries which cover development
and consultancy related to IT, communication, and enterprise
management. 2020 17.0x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 7.7x
Stock Price 84 NOK 500 NOK
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x
LTM P/E 14.31x 26.99x Z
Revenue 1.23B 2.13B
EBITDA 111.19M 250.66M
263
Bouvet Business Model
Primary Products Context Sales by Sector
IT • Expert advice on IT BOUVET helps businesses

Consulting problems within grow by increasing their IT
Services companies capabilities 50.8%
49.2%
• Provides a cross-disciplinary
• A unique Datahub approach to solving complex
approach for collecting, business problems in
Software
connecting, and sharing important Scandinavian Public Private
data within companies industries
Sales by Customer Business
• Bouvet operates locally with
10 offices in Norway and 3 in
27.9%
Sweden 34.7%
• It operates its software
product through its
subsidiary, Sesam, which is
9.8% 27.6%
an Integration Platform
• Bouvet also operates courses Oil & Gas Public Admin Power Supply Other
and breakfast seminars to
share basic knowledge about BOUVET is a capital light business as most costs
IT specifics in consulting companies are personnel
The concept behind the Sesam Integration Platform
264
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Bouvet Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
IT Consulting
• Because the business model
The players in this industry offer revolves heavily around the
services aimed at helping clients on abilities of their employees,
how they can utilize information • Good reputation in the
talent risk is extremely
technology (IT) and digital to Scandinavian region prevalent
optimally achieve their business goals. • Able to attract good • Companies can keep
employees because of the working with a
positive reputation it has • Increased
consultant without
• Little barriers to entry in relation to how it treats presence of
Market Pure working with the
besides know-how employees technology in
Structure Competition consulting company
• Strong repeat customer business
• Overexposure to 2
Market Size $51.66B1 numbers industries – oil & gas and
Industry • 95% of revenue public admin
MSD1 comes from existing
Growth • Customer concentration
customers
• 10 largest customers
account for 42.8% of
total revenues
1https://www.statista.com/forecasts/963889/it-consulting-implementationservices-revenue-in-the-world
265
• Because Bouvet is a consulting
business, their ability to grow revenue
correlates almost entirely to the
• BOUVET was a micro cap stock trading with a low trading capacity of work their employees can
volume, so it was not very liquid handle
• Inconsistent EPS growth history made it difficult to • Bouvet thus grew their employee at
accurately forecast earnings with confidence a CAGR of 9.5% over the past 5
Increased the years in order to expand their top-
Number of line
Employees • This correlated to a 13.76%
CAGR of revenue over the same
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results period
• This increase also resulted in a rise in
margins, as they needed to hire
external consultants, with higher fees,
at a lower rate
• Over the past 5 years, both billing
ratios and hourly rates have
increased
Increased
• This has led to outperformances
Prices
of consensus estimates, which has
turned into continued stock price
growth
266
Back to List
Bouvet Takeaways
BOUVET is an Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
• Bouvet has developed and is focused on Can BOUVET Sustain its Advantages?
maintaining long-term client relationships
• Due to the long-term business model that
• This puts them in a stable position going Bouvet operates, it is very likely that they
BOUVET has a Moat forward would be able to sustain their strong
• It has a solid reputation in the Scandinavian region, relationships and reputation
both from the employee and client point-of-views
• Bouvet is heavily exposed to the Oil & Gas industry, Can BOUVET continue to grow?
and that industry is going through a rough time • Bouvet’s ability to grow revolves primarily
currently with oil prices being extremely low around their willingness to hire more
• Public admin is a promising industry for Bouvet going consultants
Mediocre Industry forward, but there is increasing competition from the • As long as they keep doing that, their
Positioning larger players capacity, and thus their top-line, will
• Business relies heavily on the problems of their clients continue to grow
• The needs of clients are difficult to time, but IT
needs are definitely going to be present moving Is BOUVET poised to continue to outperform?
forward
• The stock is currently trading at historically
• Low capital intensity means most cash earned can go high multiples that are well above the
straight to shareholders industry norm and its historical average
Decent Financial • High level of liquidity that substantially covers their debt • It is likely that there will be some multiple
Profile balance contraction in the future, which will make it
• ROCE was down Y/Y, mainly due to a large increase in difficult to outperform
right-of-use assets ,however
267
Elizabeth DeSouza
606%
5 Year TSR
AIM:DATA
Rank: 42/104
268
GlobalData Overview
GlobalData Plc, based in London, England, provides proprietary NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
data, analytics, advertising, and insight services in Europe, the
United States, and the Asia Pacific. 2020 35.7x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 9.8x
0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x
P/E 15.93x 47.74x Z
Revenue £60.5M £178.2M
EBITDA £8.7M £34.4M
269
GlobalData Business Model
Sales by Category
• Proprietary data, DATA provides high quality 22.0%

Data, analytics, and insights proprietary data, analytics, and
Analytics, platform insights to clients 78.0%
& Insight • Consulting
• Subscription based access to
Services • Single copy reports
data & analytics platform Over a period of time
• Events
Immediately on delivery
• Subscriptions are typically good
for 12 months’ access and paid Sales by Geography
for at the beginning of the 3.6%
contract term 8.4%
9.9% 15.5%
• Solutions serve a very wide
range of industries, ranging from
aerospace to foodservices to 34.8% 27.7%
medical devices to tourism
UK
• Analytical tools allow the user to Europe
Americas
identify, sort, retrieve, and Asia Pacific
analyze data by a range of Middle East & North Africa
Other
criteria, helping them maximize
their data and furcating services DATA is a capital light business.
270
Low Threat
Medium Threat
GlobalData Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Research & Consulting
Services
• Proprietary technology
The players in this industry offer • Barriers to entry in and unique / difficult to
professional services, such as research replicate platforms • Social media is
consulting services are • Cyber attacks put customer
and consulting, to businesses. increasingly used
less traditional than in • One of DATA’s main selling data at risk and would
product-oriented by businesses for
points is its breadth and negatively impact DATA
businesses marketing
depth of knowledge across reputation & sales
Knowledge of data sectors • Increased
• • DATA competes in a highly
analytics and automation of
Market Perfect • Strong client relationships competitive yet fragmented
programming needed back-end services
Structure Competition • Beginning to implement an market, so it must
• Reputation is important constantly adapt and • Shift toward
Market Size $1.3B1 “audience-first” approach,
for attracting clients compete for market share virtual firms to
which consists of
reduce costs and
Industry • Proprietary technology is establishing sales teams
5.4%2 increase
Growth the most common barrier with specialist expertise in
efficiency
to entry a particular client segment
1https://my-ibisworld-com.ezproxy.cul.columbia.edu/us/en/industry-specialized/od4753/industry-at-a-glance
2https://jsginc.com/2019/08/professional-services-industry-trends-2019-and-beyond/
271
• In 2015, DATA experienced some significant events • The companies acquired in 2015
including acquisitions and a new business strategy were successfully integrated into
the company, increasing revenue
• DATA exited from the more traditional B2B print sector and geographic reach
of consulting services to refocus the business
• More successful acquisitions in
• Acquisitions of healthcare businesses cemented plan to 2017 and 2018, which expanded
focus on the consumer, ICT, and healthcare verticals Key Acquisitions DATA industry coverage and
• Along with these changes, DATA made changes to its capabilities
board and senior management including the CEO, • Acquisitions have helped DATA
creating uncertainty for investors successfully transition from the
print sector to online by adding
Consensus vs Results technologies and expertise
Return Breakdown: • In addition to acquisitions, the CEO is
focused on providing a great user
experience to create repeatable
organic growth
• Integrated over 150 data assets from
Operational different industry verticals into one
Upgrades unified software platform
• Working to create outstanding
customer service in order to make
long lasting relationships and
recurring revenue
272
Back to List
GlobalData Takeaways
DATA is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
• Businesses are increasingly seeing the benefits of
Can DATA Sustain its Advantages?
DATA serves a analyzing data • Achieving the same breadth and depth
of knowledge DATA brings to the table
Diverse Customer • DATA offers services that add value to their
customers across a wide variety of industries
would be difficult
Base
• DATA has had success globally
• In addition to DATA’s services, they
invest a lot of time into building
relationships with their customers
• Over the past 5 years, DATA has made a number of Can DATA continue to grow?
successful acquisitions, that have helped to grow the
company quickly
• DATA has a clear and proven plan for
acquisitions, which will increase their
Successful Mix of • Management has also focused on organic growth and offerings and customer base
Strategies creating a business that customers want to continue
• DATA also focusses on achieving organic
working with
growth through creating long lasting
• This mix of M&A and organic growth have proved very relationships with customers
successful for DATA
Is DATA poised to continue to outperform?
• 7% organic growth for FY 2019 • DATA is expected to trade at an all time
• Gross and EBITDA margins of 41.5% and 21.8% high multiple of 38.5x in the NTM,
Strong Financial respectively indicating it could be overvalued
Profile • Gross and EBITDA margins are expected to grow over • DATA has a clear plan for growth, and there
the next three years is an increasing demand for their services,
• Consistent topline growth which could help continue outperformance
273
Elizabeth DeSouza
589%
5 Year TSR
XTRA:EUZ
Rank: 43/104
274
Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen Overview
Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen, headquartered in Berlin, Germany,,
provides, through its subsidiaries, isotope technology
components for medical, scientific, and industrial use
worldwide. 2020 15.6x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 5.7x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x
Market Cap €123.27M €733.52M
NTM P/E 13.26x 33.22x Z
Revenue €139.7M €178.5M
EBITDA €17.3M €39.6M
275
Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen Business Model
Sales by Category
• Medical segment EUZ provides isotope technology for
produces radioactive medical, scientific, and industrial 24.0% 17.0%
components for cancer use
Isotope therapy • EUZ operates as a holding company
Products • Industrial segment for its subsidiaries and does not 59.0%
manufactures radiation conduct its own business Radiation Therapy Isotope Products
sources for industrial
gauging and control • Subsidiaries focus on isotope Radiopharma
applications in cancer therapy,
industrial radiometry, and nuclear Sales by Geography
imaging
9.5% 7.5%
• Isotope products, Radiation
Therapy, and Radiopharma 46.7%
segments
• Handle and process isotope 36.4%
technology materials in specially Europe North America
equipped and approved production Asia/Pacific Other
facilities
• Plant engineering and isotope EUZ is a capital intensive business as it
Modular-Lab PharmTracer for research and waste management from hospitals manufactures its products
production of radiopharmaceuticals
276
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Health Care Equipment
• EUZ is exposed to risk in the • Increased

The players in this industry design and Brazilian market because regulation and
manufacture medical products that their political instability changing policies
• EUZ has no direct
diagnose, monitor, and treat humans makes currency losses • Federal funding
• Considerable barriers to competitors with the same
more likely for healthcare
entry due to very strict breadth of product range
(competitors operate in • Radioactive materials and and related
regulatory requirements
niches) its use in medical products programs
surrounding radioactive
involve liability risks expected to
Market Monopolistic materials • Patent protected technology
• High customer increase
Structure Competition • Very sophisticated • Diverse portfolio; the
concentration with 5 • Increase in
technology that would technology in each segment
Market Size $45.3B1 customers accounting for terrorist activities
require massive R&D to is similar, but products vary
30% of operating revenue could lead to even
Industry replicate in lifecycle and customer
LSD1 • High risk of disposal cost more stringent
Growth
increases and cost increases regulations on
associated with increased radioactive
governmental regulations materials
1https://www.ibisworld.com/united-states/market-research-reports/medical-device-manufacturing-industry/
277
• In 2015, EUZ was a smaller company with a more limited • The radiation therapy segment of
product portfolio Eckert & Ziegler was managed by
• EUZ products are a somewhat risky investment Eckert & Ziegler BEBIG SA, but in
• They are subject to governmental regulations, and being 2018, the two companies merged
such a small company, they do not have the same type of and became EUZ as it is today
negotiating power a bigger company would • EUZ absorbed all of Eckert & Ziegler
• Few products and technologies in their portfolio BEBIG SA technologies and
subsidiaries, increasing their market
share and expertise
Consensus vs Results Major Merger & • Radiation Therapy segment now
Return Breakdown: Acquisitions accounts for about 17% of sales
• 2017 acquisition of Gamma-Service
Group expanded EUZ’s isotope
product portfolio to reach new
markets
• EUZ has seen 42% increase in sales
of products rolled out in the past 5
years, attributing this largely to the
companies from Gamma-Service
Group acquisition
278
Back to List
Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen Takeaways
EUZ is a Okay Business – 3.5/5 Future Outlook
Can EUZ Sustain its Advantages?
• EUZ operates in a space with very high
• Very high barriers to entry for isotope barriers to entry
production protect EUZ from competition • EUZ has patent protected technology
• Isotope products are required in medical • No direct competitors
EUZ has a Niche therapies, so there will always be a demand
for them Can EUZ continue to grow?
• Requires very specific expertise to operate as • Mid-term plan focuses on organic growth
EUZ subsidiaries do through product development and entering
new geographical markets
• Open to acquisitions should the right kind of
company present itself
• Organic growth dependent mainly on product
• Growth is mainly inorganic, with organic development
revenue growth in 2019 of 3%
• Strong gross profit and EBITDA margins at Is EUZ poised to continue to outperform?
48.8% and 22.2% respectively for FY 2019 • Outperformance will depend on ability to
Mostly Inorganic
• Consistent topline growth over the last few continue growing
Growth
years, but mainly due to the Gamma-Service • Without any direct competitors EUZ should be
Group acquisition able to maintain their advantages and continue
• Acquisitions seem to be EUZ’s most successful to acquire new customers
avenue for growth • Still has room for multiple expansion
279
Owen Stimpson
558%
5 Year TSR
AIM:FEVR Rank: 44/104
280
Fever-Tree Overview
Fever-Tree is a producer of premium drink mixers. Based in
NTM EV/NTM Revenue
west London, Fever-Tree makes a variety of products, including
tonic water, ginger beer, and lemonade. As of December 2019, 2019
their products were exported to 75 countries.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

5x 6x 7x 8x 9x 10x
PE 36.00x 49.12x
EBITDA 18.1M 74.5M
281
Fever-Tree Business Model
Sales by Division
Creates non-alcoholic
Mixer Drinks drinks that are meant to FEVR is a premium drink mixer
be mixed with alcohol. company.
• FEVR aims to create the highest

quality drink mixers.
• Sources ingredients from 100%
all over the world.
• “No compromise” on Mixer Drinks'
quality approach.
Sales by Geography
• A focus on marketing and
6%
branding with strong
25%
promotional videos and
materials. 51%
• Key business aspects
such as bottling, order
18%
fulfilment, and
distribution are
UK USA EU Rest
outsourced – FEVR has
Sample Fever-Tree drinks
low maintenance capex.
FEVR’s outsourced model makes them a capital light business.
282
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Fever-Tree Competitive Analysis High Threat

• Trends can
Market • Relationships with change rapidly,
• Brand and
Premium Soft Structure
Oligopoly
distributors and and new • Premium mixing
reputation drinks have
Drinks and end-users (in both competitors can
Market Size £517M1 increases become more
off-trade and on- enter.
Mixers demand. popular:
Industry trade) are • Tariffs and other
MSD1 • Product quality –
Market that encompasses Growth paramount. export/import • The size of the
premium soft drinks and developing and restrictions; FX premium
• FEVR has the largest share tweaking the market
premium mixers in both the risk.
of the off-trade mixer market • Sourcing high- recipe takes time. increased by
on-trade and off-trade • Ingredients
in the UK at 39% (2nd place quality ingredients • FEVR has pricing 81.3% in the
segments. sourcing (since
Schweppes at 31%). means relationships UK from April
power given their
• Schweppes is main with suppliers is key. FEVR sources
perceived quality 2018-2019.
competitor in the tonic from politically
– enabling • Popularity in
water segment with strong unstable
• Brand awareness consistent >50% part due to
market share in most regions, such as
and customer gross profit general trend
markets around the world. the DRC)
loyalty. margins. towards
• Commodity premium
• Scale = lower pricing changes. products.
ingredient costs.
• Cyclical
industry.
1. UK Only ; https://www.fentimans.com/resource/marketreport2019.pdf
283
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • FEVR has great marketing: escapes rooms
at London Cocktail week, launching a book,
• FEVR’s marketing is overrated; major players, like Pepsi and Coca a cinematic “about us” video, etc.
Cola, will eventually outcompete them. • Critical reception and perception: 6
Top quality
years straight as Top Trending tonic water
marketing,
• Historical sales growth is because of trends towards premium mixers as rated by Drinks International.
perception, and
which is a fad – not a long term trend. • FEVR is now larger than Schweppes in the
reception.
UK; Pepsi and Coca-Cola overestimated
• The high margins and outsourced model is not sustainable. the power of their existing brands and
did not adapt their brands and products
to cater to the premium segment.
• Trends towards premium products across all
categories – which catalyzed growth in
Premium Mixer premium mixer market.
Segment has grown, • Global premium mixer segment up 33% from
and so has FEVR 2018-2019 to £517M.
• FEVR’s revenue grown at a CAGR of 34.4%
from FY2015 to FY2019.
• Despite FX exposure and fluctuations, EBITDA
margins remained steady at ≈30%.
Margins were • FEVR’s brand and pricing power enabled them
defensible to maintain >50% gross margins.
• Largest bottler owns 4% of company which
underscores their long-term commitment.
284
Back to List
Fever-Tree Takeaways
Fever-Tree is a Solid Business– 3/5 Future Outlook
• FEVR is the No.1 global premium mixer brand. Can FEVR Sustain its Market Position?
• Strong marketing efforts and reception have bolstered • FEVR’s brand is the strongest in the premium mixer
FEVR has the FEVR’s brand globally. segment.
strongest brand in the • But barriers to entry are not that high: major companies, • FEVR is getting squeezed on both ends: new competitors
industry like Coca Cola, could start a premium mixer brand, and threaten FEVR’s premium appeal, and major competitors,
management has noted that they “are seeing mixer like Schweppes, can undercut FEVR from below.
brands pop up all around the world.”1 Can FEVR continue to grow faster than the industry?
• The outsourced model has kept margins high (28.6% • FEVR’s strong marketing has enabled to grow rapidly in
EBITDA margin) and costs low (maintenance capex the UK, and in different markets.
≈1% of sales). • FEVR’s top-quality products and reception has undergirded
• Marketing has led to strong growth in the UK, and in this growth as well.
FEVR’s strategy has
various markets around the world. • Now that FEVR has essentially proven that the premium mixer
worked so far
• FEVR has been credited with educating consumers on the industry is lasting and robust, competitors are entering to
importance of quality mixers,” essentially growing the chip away at FEVR’s share in different markets and segments.
premium mixer segment and then capturing the growth Is FEVR poised to continue to outperform the market?
with their products. 2 • Macrotrends are not in FEVR’s favor: the premium mixer
• Schweppes has increased their marketing efforts. market is slowing down as people buy less premium products
• New brands are entering the market all over the world, due to a worsening economy.
FEVR’s market position which can chip away at FEVR’s share in niche markets. • New competitors threaten FEVR at both ends of the market, in
and growth is under • Economic growth is slowing. different drinks, and in different geographies.
attack • FEVR is a solid business with a strong brand and great • Threat evidenced by slowing topline growth: just 9.7%
product, but its growth is under threat from macro growth from FY2018 to FY2019, and anticipated
threats and new competitors. contraction for FY2020.
• FEVR needs a better growth runway to justify its multiple.
1. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/20/fever-tree-mixes-revenue-warning-with-us-expansion-cheer-tonic-water-uk-sales
2. https://www.fentimans.com/resource/marketreport2019.pdf 285
Max Schieferdecker
572%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQGS:QDEL
Rank: 45/104
286
Quidel Overview
Quidel is a leader in the development, manufacturing, and NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
marketing of rapid diagnostic testing solutions based in San
Diego, CA.
2020 30.4x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 14.7x
Stock Price $22.63 $156.32
0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x
NTM P/E 50.98x 17.83x Z
Revenue 194.03M 534.89M
EBITDA 27.34M 156.84M
287
Quidel Business Model
4.1%
10.3%
Diagnostic • Tests used to detect 35.8%
Testing disease or monitoring QDEL provides testing for a
Solutions its progression wide variety of diseases
• QDEL’s products address 49.8%

issues such as infectious Rapid Immunoassay Cardiac Immunoassay
diseases, cardiology, thyroid, Specialized Diagnostic Solutions Molecular Diagnostic Solutions
women’s and general health,
eye health, gastrointestinal Sales by Geography
diseases, and toxicology 8.5%
• Manufacturing is done in
house at 3 locations in the
U.S.
• Customers for these tests are 91.5%
primarily centralized
laboratories and
U.S. Foreign
decentralized point-of-care
(POC) settings
QDEL is a capital intensive business due to the
Quidel’s ground-breaking COVID-19 test research and development and manufacturing costs
288
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Quidel Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Medical Laboratories
The players in this industry offer tests

• Products and processes are
that provide information to healthcare
subject to government
professionals about the severity, onset • It is a highly regulated
regulation, principally by
and reason of patients' physical business, and the larger
the FDA and other
ailments players likely have better
corresponding state and • Healthcare
systems in place to work • Specialization of products government agencies decentralization
with the government relative to big competitors'
• Distributor concentration is • Payment models
• High research and broader selection
Market Pure a prevalent, as 3 are becoming
development costs are • Ownership of specific
Structure Competition distributors accounted for more outcome-
present as well patents and IP that are 46% of total revenue if based
Market Size $265B1 • Patents are more difficult critical to their business FY19
to get if you do not have
Industry • Inability to execute their
MSD1 the same amount of
Growth business strategy due to
resources as larger players
patents owned by other
parties
1https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/clinical-laboratory-services-market
289
• QDEL was generating a low ROCE (3%) and there was a • In 2017, QDEL acquired 2
businesses, Triage and BNP, at a
weak relationship between revenue and net income, discount from Alere
calling into question the real value of the potential growth
• Alere was being acquired by
• There was also a fear that the company was extremely Abbott and had to divest the 2
overvalued, as multiples were too high business units
• Given the uncertainty of the industry, there was little Key Acquisitions
• These acquisitions provided
value to be gained as the speculation of tremendous QDEL with revenue stabilization,
growth had already been priced in diversification, and
complementary customer bases
in a high growth sector and have
Consensus vs Results doubled revenues in 2018
Return Breakdown:
• In May 2020, QDEL became the
first company to receive
emergency use authorization
QDEL produced (EUA) from the FDA
the first FDA • The test, Sofia 2 SARS Antigen FIA
approved COVID- POC test, can provide positive results
19 antigen test in 15 minutes
• This test is also easier to use
and more economically efficient
that prior testing processes
290
Back to List
Quidel Takeaways
QDEL is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
Can QDEL Sustain its Advantages?
• There is a lot of risk in this industry as many players
QDEL Operates in an are fighting for the same patents • As QDEL’s patents expire and its larger
Extremely competitors are able to produce a
• It is possible, however, that QDEL comes out the
higher quality, more cost efficient
Competitive Industry pandemic with more market share in its other
product, QDEL’s advantages will be
products due to the familiarity with their COVID tests
gone
• The CEO recently purchased over $800,000 worth of Can QDEL continue to grow?
shares on the open market • QDEL had to rapidly expand their
• Recently partnered with The Biomedical Advanced production capabilities due to COVID, so
Research and Development Authority (BARDA) to they are in a good position to use those
Promising Future develop a test that detects COVID-19 as well as two capabilities to capitalize on the upcoming
other respiratory diseases flu season
• High growth even before COVID suggests that the • In 2021, QDEL is planning to launch a new
pandemic was just a jumpstart for the inevitable platform, Savannah, intended to be its next
growth in the stock price flagship product as well
• QDEL carries a high cash balance and has very little debt,
Is QDEL poised to continue to outperform?
which puts the company in a position to make another • Most of the TSR came from EBITDA growth,
accretive acquisition if the opportunity arises suggesting that as long as revenue keeps
Strong Financial • Gross, EBITDA, and profit margins of 60%, 29%, and growing at the rate it has been, the price
Profile 14% respectively will grow at similar rates as well, because
• Pre-acquisition legacy revenues have grown at a CAGR of multiple compression would not be very
8% over the past 5 years likely to happen
291
Owen Stimpson
568%
5 Year TSR
NasdaqGS:EXEL
Rank: 46/104
292
Exelixis Overview
Exelixis, Inc. is a genomics-based drug discovery company and EV / NTM Revenue
the producer of cabozantinib (cabo), a treatment for various
cancers approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration 2019
(FDA).
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x
PE NA 47.89x
EBITDA (117.8M) 379.1M
293
Exelixis Business Model
EXEL is a cancer treatment company.
Discovery, development, and Sales by Geography
commercialization of cancer • EXEL researches and develops
Cancer medicines. Flagship molecule potential treatments for cancer. 4.63%
Treatments is cabozantinib (cabo), which 15.79%
is used to treat kidney and • Since 2010, EXEL has been “all-in” on
liver cancer. cabo.
• Cabo has been approved to treat two 79.58%

difficult to treat cancers: RCC (a type
of kidney cancer) and liver cancer.
US EU Japan
• Cabo now approved in 52 countries
and EXEL makes money through
licensing the drug and by selling it EXEL is a medium capital intensity business
directly. because of the capital requirement to develop /
test drugs.
• Success of cabo has enabled EXEL to
EXEL’s two cabozantinib products: begin researching new drugs again,
caboMETYX and COMETRIQ while continuing to search for new
uses for cabo.
294
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Exelixis Competitive Analysis High Threat

Global Cancer Oligopoly / • High start-up costs to

Market
Monopolistic research and create a
Therapies Structure
Competition new drug. • Regulatory
Industry Market Size ≈$98.9B1 • Clinical changes. • Cabo has been
approved for treating
• Regulatory research
Participants discover, develop, Industry RCC (kidney cancer)
HSD1 requirements: need justifying • New
and produce therapies for Growth following the METEOR
FDA approval which effectiveness. treatment
cancer patients around the trial.
• For some cancers where the takes years. renders cabo
world. • Also approved
standard of care treatment is • Need different • Product is obsolete. for liver cancer.
owned by one company, the approvals known /
industry is consolidated, but internationally. understood by • Major issue
often there are many doctors. • Cancer treatment
with cabo
competing drugs. trending towards
• High human capital treatment
• NA is the largest market. targeted therapies.
requirements. uncovered.
• For the cancers that EXEL’s
cabo product treats, cabo is /
is becoming the standard of • Element of luck in
care. finding new drugs.
1. https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/cancer-therapeutics-biotherapeutic-
market#:~:text=The%20global%20cancer%20therapeutics%20market,oncology%20drugs%20to%20treat%20cancer 295
• Cabo is not a great drug and EXEL made a mistake betting its entire • Strong study results from METEOR and
hand on its success. caboSUN trials.
• The METEOR trial will not yield good results.
• Cabometyx treatment approved in 2016.
• Cabo has never been successful in a large scale trial.
• If the drug fails, EXEL essentially has nothing left. • Approved as first line treatment in
• EXEL has a high cash burn and unsustainable debt. 2017.
Cabo became a
• No major revenue source to support R&D expenses and to success • Secured agreement with Ipsen
service debt. Pharma which sells drug outside of
• EXEL will not be acquired, and the shares are unjustifiably pricing NA and Japan.
in that possibility. • Represents 98% of revenue; revenue
grown from 37M in FY2015 to 968M in
Consensus vs Results FY2019.
Return Breakdown:
• Success of cabo drugs enabled EXEL to reduce

Debt was paid down its debt from 417.9M in FY2015 to 50.7M in
and cash flow became FY2019.
positive • Cash balance of 954.4M in March 2020;
positive cash flow from operations.
EXEL was not • EXEL was not acquired by Roche but that did
acquired not impede EXEL’s other accomplishments.
296
Back to List
Exelixis Takeaways
EXEL is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
Can EXEL Sustain its Market Position?
• High barriers to entry due to start-up capital,
• EXEL’s moat is strong.:
EXEL made the right call regulatory burdens, and element of luck required
to develop new drugs. • High startup costs
on cabo, and now has a
moat • Decision to go “all-in” on cabo paid off, given strong • Regulatory burdens
test results. • Luck / time required to find new drugs.
• EXEL’s treatments are becoming the standard of care.
• EXEL’s flagship cabo product cabometyx used to treat
Can EXEL continue to grow faster than the industry?
two cancers: RCC and HCC.
• If new studies show continue to show positive results, EXEL
• Drug is approved as a first-line treatment and is
will outperform.
EXEL has benefited from already or becoming the standard of care for the
cancers it treats. • Cash on balance sheet enables EXEL to continue these
its breakthrough
tests.
• Sold across US and around the world through
• No guarantee new tests will be successful; pharmaceutical
partnership with Ipsen.
companies can fizzle out after failing to replicate past success.
• Revenue up to nearly 1B, 98% of which is cabometyx. Is EXEL poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Continued outperformance similarly relies on results of new
tests, and whether they expand EXEL’s TAM.
• Now that EXEl has cash flow again, it has begun investing
• EXEL trades at roughly 25x earnings, implying a valuation in
in research looking at new ways cabo can be used and at
EXEL has a potential line with the market – EXEL does not need to vastly
new drugs altogether.
runway for future growth outperform general expectations to outperform the market.
• Nine ongoing potential label-enabling trials, and three 3
• If EXEL’s drugs become standard of care for currently
three trials to test cabo for new uses.
approved diseases, it may be enough to outperform on
that basis alone.
• No guarantees for new test results.
297
Owen Stimpson
560%
5 Year TSR
NasdaqCM:BLFS
Rank: 47/104
298
BioLife Solutions Overview
BLFS develops, manufactures, and markets bioproduction tools to EV / NTM Revenue
the cell and gene therapy (regenerative medicine) industry,
which are designed to improve quality and derisk biologic
2019
manufacturing and delivery.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 2x 4x 6x 8x 10x
PE NA 298.06x
EBITDA (4.67M) 2.86M
299
BioLife Solutions Business Model
Various bioproduction
tools that support BLFS makes bioproduction
Bioproduction several steps in the tools for cell and gene therapy.
tools biological Sales by Geography
manufacturing and • BLFS has four product lines:
delivery process. biopreservation media, 1%
automated thawing devices,
14%
smart “cloud” shipping
containers, and freezer
storage.
16% 69%
• BLFS’s products aim to
improve quality and de-risk
cell and gene therapy.
• Help customers US Canada EMEA Other
commercialize new
biologic-based
therapies.
BLFS is a medium capital intensity business.
BLFS’ products
300
Low Threat
Medium Threat
BioLife Solutions Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market Monopolistic • Start-up capital

Cell and Gene Therapy Structure Competition required to develop
Industry Market Size 1B1 new products.
Participants develop cell and Industry • Promise of curing

> 10%1 • Technical expertise. • New competitor
gene therapies and related Growth • Reputation rather than
products. enters.
and brand. ameliorating
• Fast growing industry: • Regulatory approvals. • Or competitor symptoms has
• 1000 ongoing trials. acquired by catalyzed large
• 9.8B in financing. • Quality of major inflow of
• FDA predicts 5-10 new • Industry is young and products. company. investment and
therapies will be there is likely to be
many new drugs
approved annually. new innovations /
• Relationships • Technological being tested by
technological changes
with change. companies,
• BioLife is currently trusted as industry matures.
customers. universities, and
supplier but industry is young • Underscored non-profits.
and there are many emerging by level of
competitors. financing
flowing into
industry.
1. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/life-sciences-and-health-care/articles/challenges-in-the-emerging-cell-therapy-industry.html
301
• Raised new equity each year from FY2015
• Negative EBITDA and consistent cash burn. to FY2020.
• And the company had to raise equity in FY2014 just to Cash flow positive
• Cash flow positive since FY2017 and
survive.
• Skepticism over whether the regenerative medicine market will EBITDA positive since FY2018.
grow like management thinks. • Market trends in regenerative medicine
• And management’s plan to do contract manufacturing is not industry advantageous to BLFS:
great since BLFS has already lost one of their major • 1000 companies in space in 2019 and
customers in the space and margins are lower. 10B invested.
• BLFS lacks focus: the biologistex Joint Venture is burning cash, and • Reimbursement based on patient
unrelated to the core business. outcomes (makes buying premium
media from BLFS more attractive).
Regenerative market • Regenerative medicine customers grown to a
EPS Results majority of revenue (56% of revenue in
Return Breakdown: did grow
FY2018).
• Enabled revenue to grow to 33M in
FY2020 from 6.5M in FY2015.
• Helped expand gross margins from
27.5% in FY2015 to 55.6% in FY2020.
• BLFS ceased contract manufacturing as core
business begin to contribute.
• Acquisitions share common theme of
lowering risk in developing and
Acquisitions panned manufacturing biologic therapies.
out
• JV bought out in FY2019 and is cashflow
positive.
302
Back to List
BioLife Solutions Takeaways

BLFS is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
• BLFS maintained sufficient liquidity by raising equity Can BLFS Sustain its Market Position?
and doing contract manufacturing. • There are barriers to entry:
BLFS identified an
• BLFS saw the opportunity in regenerative medicine • Start-up capital.
opportunity
and invested to position itself to capture the industry • Regulations.
growth. • Technical expertise required.
• BLFS’s high quality products enabled it to capture • Industry very young and minimal investment until
market share as regenerative medicine industry grew. recently, dynamics could change given amount of
investment.
• Changes in reimbursement undergirded this
BLFS has capitalized on growth, as it made it more logical for companies
the industry growth and to invest in higher quality products like those Can BLFS continue to grow faster than the industry?
trends offered by BLFS. • BLFS is poised to grow faster than the industry given that
• BLFS made continual investments in adjacent niches, their products are top-end, which make more sense for
such as shipping containers specialized for customers given reimbursement changes.
regenerative medicine.
Is BLFS poised to continue to outperform the market?
• The industry is very young, and with the large influx of
investment, competitive dynamics may change. • BLFS has a strong product and market position in an
industry that is poised to grow - quickly.
• But as of now, BLFS has the best biopreservation for
BLFS has a runway for regenerative medicine which should enable the company • BLFS’s strategy and acquisitions have worked so far.
growth to capture industry growth as more studies are done. • At nearly 60x NTM EBITDA any issue could cause BLFS’s
• If drugs are brought to market, BLFS stands to multiple to contract, and given the level of investment and
benefit as well given the potential scale of potential innovation, I think that it is likely.
production.
303
Max Schieferdecker
541%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQGS:MRCY
Rank: 48/104
304
Mercury Systems Overview
Mercury Systems is a leading commercial provider of secure NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
sensor and safety-critical mission processing systems for
aerospace and defense companies and is based in Andover, MA.
2020 25.7x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 8.8x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
NTM P/E 33.93x 39.20x Z
Revenue 242.52M 722.82M
EBITDA 40.43M 134.30M
305
Mercury Systems Business Model
Context
Primary Products Sales by Category
MRCY operates at the
• Elements that perform a intersection of high-tech and 28.2%
Components single, discrete defense
technological function • Builds very sophisticated 44.1%
• Combinations of computer software systems that

multiple components go onboard military platforms 27.6%
Modules and
that work together to • Customers are primarily the
Subassemblies Components Modules and Sub-assemblies Integrated Subsystems
performs multiple major defense prime
functions contractors
Sales by Geography
• Multiple modules and/or • Serve their increased
Integrated outsourcing needs on the 11.3%
subassemblies combined with a
Subsystems most important programs
backplane and software
and platforms
• Outsourcing allows larger
88.7%
companies to accomplish
goals more quickly and
more affordably Domestic (U.S.) International
• Focused for the longest time on

sensor and effector mission MRCY is a capital intensive business
systems market despite now manufacturing is done in house
Examples of Mercury RF & Microwave Products having over 300 programs
306
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Mercury Systems Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Aerospace and Defense
Materials
The players in this industry supply • Customer consolidation

• Tight-knit relationship
materials and developed components with Raytheon and
with Raytheon, on of the
to final A&D manufacturing companies Lockheed Martin
biggest Aerospace &
• Very high barriers to entry compromising 37% of FY19
Defense companies in the
due to the intense revenue
world
screening, background • Demand for MRCY’s • A lot more
• Based out of the U.S. which
checks, and it takes to products rely heavily on outsourcing
Market Monopolistic is the biggest spender on
work with the U.S. political issues such as the happening in the
Structure Competition defense in the world
government due to U.S. defense budget defense industry
potential national security • Very trusted domestic
Market Size $21.5B1 • With the amount of M&A
threats supply chain
the is being performed,
Industry • Possesses industry leading
MSD1 there is a chance that some
Growth embedded security deals may end up being
capabilities dilutive
1https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/aerospace-defense-materials-market
307
• Done 11 deals and deployed over

$800M in capital over the past 5
• Uncertainty regarding future growth prospects after a years
successful period of acquisitions and revenue growth • Focused on fully integrating its
acquisitions
• The ability to effectively
extract synergies has resulted
in an EBITDA CAGR of 46%
Return Breakdown: despite revenues only
Consensus vs Results growing at a CAGR of 26%
Successful M&A
Strategy • Their CFO, Mike Ruppert, who has
been in charge of these operations
since joining MRCY in 2018 has had
a very successful A&D investment
banking career before joining
MRCY, having even started his own
boutique M&A shop
• A strict M&A philosophy has been
presented to investors to give them
confidence in their execution of
future deals
308
Back to List
Mercury Systems Takeaways
MRCY is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
• MRCY operates in a very high barrier to entry Can MRCY Sustain its Advantages?
industry and boasts strong relationships with many
industry leaders
• Given the importance of strong
relationships in this industry, as long as
• Their value proposition to the large players in MRCY doesn’t burn any bridges, it will
MRCY has a Moat A&D is very strong, and business will no doubt continue to benefit from a reliable
keep showing up at MRCY’s door supply chain and strong partnerships
• This is evident as there is a large backlog of
orders mentioned in every annual report
Can MRCY continue to grow?
• Possesses a strong cash position (over $400M as of • MRCY is in a strong position to continue to
3/27/20) to capitalize on more opportunistic M&A grow, both organically and through further
transactions in the future M&A activity
• M&A has proven to be a big growth driver for
MRCY in the past, so this position shows promise
Strong Financial for more strong growth in the future
Is MRCY poised to continue to outperform?
Profile for Continued • Large focus on expanding EBITDA margins over time,
Growth and MRCY has been successful in accomplishing that goal • Although there is a strong case for
so far continued long-term growth , it seems like
• High R&D costs and CapEx are present in order to the market has now priced that in, as NTM
maintain the step ahead of competitors on the multiples are much higher (very high for an
technology front, which has resulted in much success so A&D company) than they were 5 years ago
far
309
Elizabeth DeSouza
538%
5 Year TSR
OM:VITR
Rank: 49/104
310
Vitrolife Overview In Swedish Krona (Kr)
Vitrolife AB is a medical device company, develops, produces,

and markets products for assisted reproduction, such as sperm NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
processing, in vitro fertilization media and oil, and other
products and services. 2020 41.2x
Statistic 06/10/2015 06/10/2020

2015 17.3x
Market Cap 3.63B Kr 22.14B Kr 0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x 50.0x
Enterprise Value 3.61B Kr 21.51B Kr
P/E 30.28x 61.10x

Z
311
VitroLife Business Model
Primary Product Context Sales by Geography
• Nutrient solutions (media) 16%
VITR develops, produces, and
• Advanced disposable markets advanced products
instruments (needles and 24% 40%
and systems for in vitro
pipettes) fertilization (IVF)
Fertility • Disposable plastic products 19%
Treatments • Technological aids (time- • VITR offers disposable EMEA
lapse and microsurgical products and equipment for North and South America
lasers) IVF treatment, as well as
Asia
Japan & Pacific
• Kits for genetic analysis of accompanying support and
embryos Sales by Segment
service
8%
• Primarily conducts product
development in-house, 45%
while research is done by 29%
leading researchers in the
field
12% 2% 4%
• VITR has customers,
primarily public and private Media ART Equipment
clinics, in 110 countries Other Disposable Devices

• Preimplantation genetic Time-lapse Genomics
testing for aneuploidy and
monogenic disorders VITR is a capital intensive business.
VITR’s EmbryoGlue is an implantation promoting medium.
312
Low Threat
Medium Threat
VitroLife Competitive Analysis High Threat

Barriers To Entry Risks
• Trend toward
Biotechnology increased technology
• Government regulations are • Although IVF content in treatments
strict, and IVF products treatments are typically • Trend for IVF clinics to
The players in this industry engage in require particularly lengthy high priority for merge and form
the research, development, approvals before reaching • Market leader in time- patients, economic chains, creating
manufacturing and/or marketing of market lapse systems, which downturns could result economies of scale
products based on genetic analysis Product approval is in a decline for
• help monitor and select • As countries develop,
and genetic engineering. privately financed
required in each individual embryos for more people are
market in which the implantation treatments choosing to wait
products will be sold • VITR covers the • Legislative changes and before having children,
Market • Long start-up periods with complete value chain political decisions can leasing to reduced
Oligopoly influence VITR’s ability fertility, which drives
Structure high fixed costs and little from development and
profit production to to conduct operations the fertility treatment
Market Size $1.12T1 market
• Competitive landscape distribution and sales • VITR experienced a
Industry consists of hundreds of cyber attack in Q1 2019 • Covid-19 is expected
> 10%1
Growth small companies and a few and is still vulnerable to to significantly
industry giants them negatively impact IVF
sales
313
• In 2015, VITR rethought it strategy for becoming market leader in • Market leader in time-lapse systems
fertility treatments and invested in time-lapse technology • In 2019, time-lapse technology was used in
• Acquired Unisense FertliTech A/S, now Vitrolife A/S, in 2014 to about 15% of IVF treatments, up from 10% in
expand time-lapse capabilities
2015
• Sales were weak for VITR’s stand alone time-lapse operations, so in
2015 it merged them with Vitrolife A/S Success of Time- • In 2019, the time-lapse segment accounted for
• VITR rethought its growth strategy and reorganized its operations to lapse 29% of total revenue, up from 19% in 2015
focus on their media, disposal devices, and time lapse segments in the Technology • Growth of time-lapse in previously successful
EMEA, Asia & Pacific, and Americas regions markets, such as Japan, and underdeveloped
• VITR’s investment in time-lapse technology and their organizational markets like the U.S.
changes brought uncertainty about their future performance • Time-lapse product range broadened by
launch of two new products in 2019
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results • In 2018, VITR made a commercialization agreement
with Illumina Inc., which gave them exclusive
distribution, development, and commercialization
rights for Ilumina’s IVF business for
preimplantation genetic testing
• This deal helped set up the new Genomics business
New Business and
unit, which now accounts for 8% of revenue and can
Products
continue to grow
• VITR received market approval for EmbryoScope+
in China, resulting in the largest single order of
systems so far
• VITR also grew sales in all of its geographic regions
in 2019
314
Back to List
VitroLife Takeaways
VITR is a Good Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
Can VITR sustain its advantages?
• VITR is a well established company with a • High barriers to entry discourage
VITR has a History of history of success competition
Success • VITR has clear goals for growth and • VITR has a very secure position in the time-
development of their business lapse systems space
• Ability to cover the entire value chain gives
customers a sense of security and makes it
• VITR has strong gross profit and EBITDA margins difficult for competitors
of 63.4% and 37.8% respectively in 2019, and
has been consistent with this performance over
Can VITR continue to grow?
the last five years
Consistent Growth • VITR achieved 12% organic growth in 2019
• VITR has had consistent topline growth over the
last 5 years, growing 28.6% in 2019 • VITR has invested in business segments such as
time-lapse systems and genomics that have the
• EPS has consistently grown and often
opportunity for growth
outperformed estimates over the last five years
• Covid-19 could negatively impact VITR in the
long-term Is VITR poised to continue to outperform?
• IVF treatments are expensive, and the economic • VITR P/E and EBITDA multiples are high,
Covid-19 Long-term downturn caused by Covid-19 could deter perhaps indicating it is currently overvalued
Impact patients from seeking treatment • VITR has a plan for growth, which could allow it
• In the medium-term, the effects of Covid-19 on to continue to outperform, but Covid-19 could
a pregnancy are unknown and could deter also hinder outperformance
women from pregnancy / using IVF
315
Max Schieferdecker
530%
5 Year TSR
NYSE:EVI
Rank: 50/104
316
EVI Industries Overview
EVI Industries is the parent company of many subsidiaries that LTM1 EV/EBITDA Multiple
operate in the commercial laundry business. EVI is based out of
Miami, FL. 2020 32.4x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 8.4x
0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x
LTM P/E 16.10x 168.90x Z
EBITDA 2.08M 9.02M
1There is no sell-side coverage, so LTM EBITDA was used for the sake of comparison 317
EVI Industries Business Model
• Sells, rents, and leases EVI is a one-stop-shop for all
commercial and things laundry
Distribution
industrial equipment, • Products that are distributed
parts, and accessories through EVI’s subsidiaries
include commercial and
• Provides installation and industrial laundry and dry
Services maintenance services to cleaning equipment as well as
its customers steam and hot water boilers
No Breakdowns of Revenue
• These are mainly
were Provided by EVI
supplied by a few major
manufacturers in the U.S.
• EVI’s vast range of prices and a
broad product line allow them
to be the go-to place for every
type of customer
• Target customers range from
multi-unit housing, to health
care facilities, to laundromat
investors EVI is a capital intensive business as a lot of cash is
Dexter washer sold through a subsidiary needed to purchase, store, and deliver large machines
• B2B business model
318
Low Threat
Medium Threat
EVI Industries Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed in the

Industry
Industrial Distribution
• There is nothing special or

The players in this industry receive unique about this • While much of the industry
products from manufacturers and then business, as the is fragmented, EVI’s Buy-
are responsible for distributing them distributor just acts as a • The major distribution
and-Build growth strategy
to the end customer. middleman between the channels are becoming
has allowed them to
distributor and the end increasingly digitalized
penetrate more markets
customer, as it is more • Supplier power is as the value add from
and have a larger market
convenient for the extremely high, as the traditional players
share than many of its
manufacturers only 4 manufacturers are being questioned
Market Pure competitors
accounted for 76% of • The business in
Structure Competition • The industry is extremely • Their CEO used to be the the company’s getting
fragmented because of the head of M&A at another
Market Size $2.5T1 purchases disintermediated
low barriers to entry, as industrial distributor,
the top publicly traded by the
Industry where he became an
LSD1 distribution companies capabilities of
Growth learned the strategy
only account for 5% of the the internet
behind acquiring
US market companies for growth
1https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/advanced%20electronics/our%20insights/the%20coming%20shak
eout%20in%20industrial%20distribution/the-coming-shakeout-in-industrial-distribution-report.pdf 319
• There had been a history of unimpressive growth going into
2015, with 2014 revenues decreasing Y/Y from 2013 • Since becoming the CEO, Nahmad
• The industrial distribution business is nothing ground has facilitated the acquisition of 13
breaking, as it’s a rather boring industry with low margins commercial laundry vendors, thus
• The current majority shareholders of the company, the growing their market share by
president and CEO and his brother, recently sold 40% of eliminating others
their shares to a Florida LLC, from which the new • These acquisitions were of local
Growth by
President, CEO, and Director of the Board, Henry Nahmad, distributors all around the United
Acquisitions States, allowing EVI to reach
came
markets that it never would have
• Sign that maybe the future wasn’t too promising reached before
Consensus vs Results • These acquisitions led to inorganic
Return Breakdown: top line growth of 50% from 2015-
2020
No Analyst Coverage • Due to the inorganic growth figures

Multiple that EVI was touting, the market
Expansion assigned higher multiples to the stock
as well
320
Back to List
EVI Industries Takeaways
EVI is a Bad Business – 1/5 Future Outlook
• Although EVI has a very capable acquirer at the helm, Can EVI Sustain its Advantages?
the underlying quality of the business has not • Given that EVI’s only real advantage
EVI has No Real Moat changed since he took over relative to its competitors is a head start
to Protect Itself from • In a business that already has terrible margins, there on consolidation, it is unlikely that they
the Competition are no barriers to entry that would stop more will be able to sustain that as other
competition from coming into the picture and causing players start doing the same
those margins to get even smaller Can EVI continue to grow?
• Although the CAGR for revenue and EBITDA are high at • Given that the only way EVI can grow is
53% and 34%, respectively, the earnings potential was through acquisitions, their future growth
never fully realized prospects do not look promising
• The EPS CAGR for the same period was -7.4% • The value of their stock has gone down
• In order to finance all of the acquisitions, a lot of debt from its peak, there is a lot of debt on the
was taken out and more shares were issued balance sheet, and organic cash flow
• This left the company highly levered with an generation is not easy for them, so
extremely small relative cash balance and financing these acquisitions in the future is
Poor Financial Profile going to be quite difficult
also severely diluted their shareholders
• EVI also takes on large contracts that have diminished Is EVI poised to continue to outperform?
margins in the past few years because of the hope that • The stock was extremely overvalued
they will have more higher margin accessory sales in
compared to its peers at its peak, but the
the future
market has corrected the price
• This is a losing business model in the long run, as
other products account for a lower total value • It is unlikely that EVI will have multiples
than the machine sales do that high again to cause an outperformance
321
Owen Stimpson
525%
5 Year TSR
ASX:EOS
Rank: 51/104
322
Electro Optic Systems Overview In Australian Dollars
EV / LTM Revenue
Electro Optic Systems Holdings Limited develops, manufactures,
and sells telescopes and dome enclosures, laser satellite tracking
systems, and electro-optic fire control systems. 2019
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020
Stock Price $1.00 $6.58 2015

0x 1x 2x 3x 4x 5x
EV / LTM EBITDA NA 25.15x
PE NA 25.76x
EBITDA 1.5M 23.8M
323
Electro Optic Systems Business Model
Sales by Geography
Develops, manufactures EOS sells high-tech weapons
and markets advanced 1%
and surveillance systems to 4%
Defense
fire control, surveillance, governments.
and weapon systems.
• EOS manufactures remotely
Develops, manufactures operated weapon systems
and markets laser-based 95%
Space and laser-based surveillance
space surveillance systems used by Space Defense Communications
systems. governments for defense
Develops, manufactures capabilities.
Sales by Geography
and markets optical,
Communication • EOS has invested 800M in 14%
microwave and
Systems R&D over 20 years and now
on-the-move radio and
satellite products. has some of the most lethal
59%
and accurate remote weapon
system (RWS) products.
27%
• EOS currently relies on RWS Australia Middle East North America
sales but sees space and
communication systems as
EOS is a high capital-intensity business.
Sample EOS products (weapons on trucks) frontiers for future growth.
324
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Electro Optic Systems Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market
Oligopoly
Structure
Remote Weapons • Significant R&D spend • Major data / IP
Market Size 12B1 • Product
Systems Market required to create breach.
quality: high
Industry working product.
> 10%1 R&D has
Participants develop, Growth enabled EOS to • Competition • Australian army
manufacture and market • Patents and IP. have a market (competitors could has opted to invest
• EOS is said to have one of the
remote weapon systems, leading also be state significantly more
best/the best RWS technology
primarily to government product. funded). in defense:
on the market. • Contracts are long-
armies and defense services. • 270B
term.
• EOS is the largest defense budget for
• EOS has • Manufacturing /
exporter in the southern next decade
• Regulatory burdens. navigated sourcing problems.
hemisphere. on
government
hardware
tender
• Key competitors include Rafael • Limited customer • Less defense spend (like RWS).
processes.
(Israel based) and Kongsberg base: essentially just by governments.
(Norway based) – market is sovereign
dominated by these players + governments. • Reputation.
EOS.
1. EOS 2019 10k

325
• EOS won two 600M+ contracts in 2017 for
• EOS needs to win major contracts and leverage its R&D – but it has its RWS.
not shown its capable of doing that. • Had been developing RWS for 20
years and technology now
• Historically unprofitable company that is generally cash flow considered industry leading –
EOS won major
negative or barely cash flow positive. enabling them to win the contracts.
contracts
• Very speculative and might need to dilute to stay alive.
• Currently has 3.1B of active tenders and
• EOS’ future depends on RWS – it does not have other segments. 500-600M backlog.
• Revenue grown from 30.5M in FY2015 to
166M in FY2019.
• EOS achieved profitability in FY2018 and has
Return Breakdown: EPS Results been profitable each quarter since.
EOS became
• However, EOS is still consistently cash flow
profitable
negative – and has raised equity multiple
times to maintain liquidity.
• EOS has established a new communications
division; and EOS’ space division is now
profitable.
• EOS’ space communication tech is far superior
EOS expanded to incumbent tech but needs new
infrastructure to be used – lots of future
potential as infrastructure updates.
• Space segment now focused on exports (large
TAM) due to Australia’s lack of focus on space.
326
Back to List
Electro Optic Systems Takeaways

EOS is a Good Business- 3.5/5 Future Outlook
Can EOS Sustain its Market Position?
• EOS invested ~A$800m in R&D over the last 20
years on its technology. • EOS has industry leading RWS technology.
EOS investments in R&D • Now has industry leading, best-in class • EOS has a moat due to the high-capital requirements, IP
paid off RWS tech and IP. rights, and regulatory burdens.
• EOS has a moat due to its technology, IP, and • There are only 2 other major significant competitors.
regulatory burdens. Can EOS continue to grow faster than the industry?
• EOS leading technology should enable them to win a high
• EOS signed two major contracts worth roughly 600M in portion of active tenders.
2017 that contributed to high revenue growth. • Australia is investing significantly in its military,
• EOS has 3B in active tenders and a 600M backlog. increasing likelihood of future tenders that EOS will be
• Historical tender conversion rate ≈40% implies well positioned to win.
EOS has grown
1.2B in future revenue. • Space and communication represent other potential
• EOS has invested in growth potential: Australia RWS revenue streams.
production capacity increased from 50M to 300M from Is EOS poised to continue to outperform the market?
2016 to 2019; plans to increase further to 900M. • EOS has demonstrated that it can be win major contracts,
be profitable and cash flow positive.
• EOS can likely continue to grow its core RWS business • But it has only won two major contracts in last 3
given active tenders, strength of technology, and years and has yet to achieve consistent positive
EOS has a runway for competitive moat. cash flow.
growth • EOS’ space and communication segments, while • EOS could win major new contracts but 1) that prospect is
currently speculative, could provide future contribution
likely priced in 2) future tenders may be more sparse.
to EOS’ top and bottom line.
• EOS space and communication segment remain
speculative.
327
Max Schieferdecker
524%
5 Year TSR
AIM:BVXP
Rank: 52/104
328
Bioventix Overview
Bioventix is a biotech company based in Farnham, Surrey, UK,
that specializes in the development and commercial supply of
high-affinity monoclonal antibodies for applications in clinical
diagnostics. 2020 27.4x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 13.5x
Stock Price ₤8.25 ₤42.65
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
Market Cap ₤41.67M ₤222.11M
Enterprise Value ₤37.87M ₤216.58M
NTM P/E 17.84x 34.17x Z
Statistic CY1 2015 CY1 2019
EBITDA 3.56M 7.91M
1HY ends on 12/31, so CY numbers are easily available for comparison 329
Bioventix Business Model
Primary Products Context Sales by Revenue Type
Sheep • Antibodies made for use BVXP helps blood tests become 25.0%
Monoclonal on blood-testing more accurate
Antibodies machines • BVXP creates and manufactures
antibodies to different human 75.0%
“Packaging” Methods
hormones and human disease
• Non-exclusive portfolio of analytes
antibodies for purchase by • The goal is to sell those Sales of Antibodies Usage Royalties
anyone around the world antibodies to the big blood-

Own-Risk • The reagents and the testing companies around Sales by Antibody Type
resources to create and the world, such as Roche, 8.0%
manufacture the SMAs Abbot, and Siemens
come from BVXP 42.9%
• BVXP’s antibodies are derived
from sheep, but made in culture 36.7%
• Exclusive portfolio of
and mass-produced
antibodies where the
12.5%
research is sponsored by a • Sheep are bigger and live longer
Contract customer for use by said than mice, and their antibodies Vitamin D NT proBNP Others Testosterone
R&D customer have an increased
• The reagents and know- sensitivity/affinity, specificity in
BVXP is a capital light business as material
how may additionally be what they bind to, resulting in
production costs are quite low.
provided by said customer better blood testing capabilities
330
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Bioventix Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Antibody Production
The players in this industry offer a

antibodies for a variety of different • No intellectual property
• First biotech company to
end uses through their production • Only have physical
the SMA market
process. This consists of preparing property and know-
antigens, injecting them into animals, • BVXP first exposed how
• High switching costs with
and then recovering the antibodies Roche to the
a lot of risk attached for • Typically about a 5-year lag
from the animals through their white technology, and
customers between research and the
blood cells. then their large
• Many customers revenue that comes as a • Antibodies are
competitors
would not be result of that research being upgraded to
followed suit
Market Monopolistic willing to purchase • Heavily regulated by more effective
• Extremely small team size
Structure Competition unproven, cheaper government agencies versions
(14 PT, 12 FT) allows for
antibodies over • Customer concentration
Market Size $12.3B1 less overhead and a more
more expensive, risk
efficient workflow
Industry proven ones
> 10%1 • Products are unique and • Much of BVXP’s
Growth revenue comes from
extremely valuable to
downstream providers the 4 largest players
in the industry
1https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/antibody-production-market
331
• Micro-cap company trading on a smaller, British exchange that • The CEO, Peter Harrison, believed
that the revenue growth from their
is more lenient on regulation than the LSE vitamin D antibody would plateau
• High-risk company whose business is quite confusing without around 2015/2016
researching it in depth • However, they continued to
• Not a lot of resources are spent on investor relations and Vitamin D
Antibody grow substantially (for
there is very little specific information present in the reasons Peter’s stated he
financial disclosures Outperforms doesn’t know), which was a
large driver in the consistent
EPS outperformance that can
be seen in the Consensus vs
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results Results graph (left)
• From what is easily accessible online,

it doesn’t seem like there was a
concerted effort to get the word out
about the company before 2016
More Investor
• Starting in 2016, Peter Harrison
Exposure
started going to investor
conferences and doing interviews
where he explains in detail the
business and its opportunities
332
Back to List
Bioventix Takeaways
BVXP is a Good Business – 3.5/5 Future Outlook
• Clinical diagnostic products take years for BVXP’s
Can BVXP Sustain its Advantages?
customers to develop and obtain regulatory approval • BVXP can absolutely sustain its
• Thus, when a product using a BVXP antibody is
advantages given the fragmentation of
BVXP has a Moat created, it is unlikely that it will be replaced or
the market and its strong relationships
changed
with the large players in its customer
base
• BVXP capitalizes well by being the first to market
for many of its products Can BVXP continue to grow?
• BVXP is on pace to continue to grow
• BVXP is extremely liquid with no debt • The vitamin D antibodies are expected to
• They aim to keep around ₤5M on the balance plateau, but the CEO believes that their
sheet for every HY, so anything over that is new troponin antibody (for uses in
distributed to shareholder through dividends detecting heart attacks) is poised for high
• Dividends have been growing a lot in recent growth in the coming years
years because of the very high margins and high • This is going to be caused by the
Very Strong Financial
top-line growth, which has resulted in a lot of replacement of outdated antibodies
excess cash on the balance sheet
Profile Is BVXP poised to continue to outperform?
• Because most of BXP’s revenue comes from
“passive income” through the royalties of products • Much of the prior outperformance was
that they had invested in earlier, actual COGS is cased by multiple expansion
quite low • While there was substantial EBITDA growth
• Recurring and predictable revenue streams are present as well, because of the predictability of
as a result of long-term contracts and royalties in revenues, the future growth prospects seem
perpetuity to be factored into the price already
333
Owen Stimpson
517%
5 Year TSR
AIM:TSTL
Rank: 53/104
334
Tristel Overview
TSTL manufactures and sells products addressing infection and EV / NTM EBITDA
contamination control in human and animal healthcare,
pharmaceutical and personal care manufacturing plants, and
2019
industrial water systems.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x
PE 20.75x 39.74x
EBITDA 3.07M 6.15M
335
Tristel Business Model
Sales by Segment
Hospital infection TSTL is a manufacturer of 5%
Human infection prevention and
prevention products
Healthcare contamination control
under the Tristel brand. 3%
products.
Veterinary practice • Principal technology is 92%

Animal infection prevention formulation based on
Healthcare products under the Human Animal Contamination Control
chlorine dioxide (ClO2).
Anistel brand. • Only company using
ClO2 for
Critical environment decontamination of Sales by Geography
Contamination contamination control medical instruments.
Control products under the 32%
Crystel brand. • Principal end-uses are for
45%
medical instruments and
surfaces in hospitals.
• Core market is the UK with

23%
high penetration but has
UK EU Rest
expanded across Europe.
• Seeking approvals for
the US. TSTL is a medium capital intensity business.
Sample Tristel products
336
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Tristel Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market Monopolistic
Disinfectant Structure Competition • TSTL has a • TSTL is the only
Manufacturing Market Size 3.5B1 proprietary company using • Customer
Industry formulation. chlorine dioxide concentration:
Industry
LSD1 • TSTL has 277 for the • 28% of
This industry manufactures Growth
disinfectant products for patents in 36 decontamination human
household and industrial uses. • TSTL is a leader with high countries. of medical healthcare
Disinfectants are substances penetration in the UK market. instruments in the revenue • Healthcare
that kill or inhibit growth of world. from 1 increasingly
• Products often need
harmful microorganisms • Has yet to enter competitive US customer. important political
to be certified for use
market where Clorox and issue across the
by medical device • Peer-reviewed,
Reckitt Benckiser are largest world.
manufacturers. published • Superior product
players with combined ≈15%
market share. research is invented.
• Regulatory validating
• TSTL is only company with requirements (i.e. product. • Manufacturing
CIO2 formulation for medical FDA approval). • 29 papers issues.
devices disinfection. for TSTL.
1. US figures; Ibis World.

337
• While UK market was highly penetrated,
• Mature industry with limited room for topline and bottom line TSTL grew revenue from 9.8M in FY2015
growth. to 11.8M in FY2019 – representing solid
• TSTL has already penetrated the UK market – more likely to 4.75% CAGR.
lose market share than gain more.
• Skeptical of international expansion and whether TSTL can • International revenue grew from 5.5M in
be successful outside of its core markets. FY2015 to 14.4M in FY2019.
Grew domestically
• Limited options for good capital allocation. and internationally • International sales now 56% of
total revenue.
• TSTL is a good company but at >20x earnings, its already fairly • Acquisition of MODT (a company that
valued. helps people administer healthcare
through their smartphone) gives TSTL
EPS Results potential access to the 5.8B people who do
Return Breakdown: not have access to good healthcare.
• Management made dividend payments each

year with extra capital.
• Invested in regulatory approval for large and
Strong capital untapped American market.
allocation
• Yet to gain approval, however.
• Acquired distributors in Europe which were
accretive and raised gross margins.
Multiple grew • PE multiple has essentially doubled to 39.74x.
338
Back to List
Tristel Takeaways
TSTL is a High Quality Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
• TSTL has a proprietary formula and is the only Can TSTL Sustain its Market Position?
company on earth that uses CIO2 for medical device • TSTL has a strong moat and has proven that by
decontamination. maintaining its dominance in the UK.
• 277 patents held by TSTL for products. • There are regulatory barriers and medical device
TSTL has a moat • TSTL’s customers are sensitive to switching products approval barriers.
due to their high importance but low cost. • Customer base is unlikely to seek alternatives given
• 95% of TSTL’s revenue is recurring purchases. mission critical nature of TSTL products.
• There are regulatory burdens, and products need to Can TSTL continue to grow faster than the industry?
be approved by medical device manufacturers. • TSTL has positioned itself to grow internationally.
• And has proven they can effectively grow in new
• TSTL protected its strong market dominance in the UK markets over the last five years.
and expanded internationally. • Market in US represents massive opportunity.
• Grown international sales to 58% of total
• TSTL has a truly proprietary product in that nobody else
TSTL grew effectively revenue.
uses CIO2.
• UK sales grown steadily at ≈5%.
Is TSTL poised to continue to outperform the market?
• TSTL bought distributors in Belgium, France, and the
• Approval in the US could catalyze growth that would
Netherlands which grew margins and revenue.
enable outperformance.
• Can likely protect its current market share. • But barriers to entry that affect TSTL’s competitors
• TSTL is in the regulatory approval process in the US. could stifle their growth in the US – and they are
TSTL has a runway for yet to be approved.
future growth • Acquisition of MODT can potentially enable TSTL to
access many traditionally underserved markets (i.e. • At 40x earnings, TSTL does not have much margin for
Africa, areas in Asia such as India, etc.). error.
339
Elizabeth DeSouza
513%
5 Year TSR
OM:MCAP
Rank: 54/104
340
MedCap Overview
MedCap is a private equity firm investing in healthcare NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
equipment and services, biotechnology, life sciences, and
pharmaceutical companies, based in Stockholm, Sweden.
2020 15.5x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 6.9x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x
Market Cap 341.73M SEK 2.17B SEK
Enterprise Value 409.88M SEK 2.53B SEK
NTM P/E 11.21x 31.33x Z
Revenue 817.8M SEK 757.40M SEK
EBITDA 35.0M SEK 92.30M SEK
341
MedCap Business Model
Sales by Geography
MCAP creates value through 1.0%
active ownership 27.0%
• MedTech segment • MCAP invests in small and mid-
Life Sciences 57.0%
• Specialty Pharma sized private life sciences
Investments
segment companies, primarily in
central/northern Europe 15.0%
• Target of 5-10 core investments Sweden Europe
• Investment size is typically SEK Nordics (ex Swe) Rest of World
25-150M in companies with

EBITDA between SEK 1M and Sales by Category
SEK 50M
43.4%
• Aim for majority ownership
with no specified length of
holding period
• MCAP has an active ownership 56.6%
strategy where it invests in
development, resources, and MedTech Specialty Pharma
Abliia, an MCAP investment, creates products like the MEMO operational improvement, as
Timer shown above to help people with conditions like ADHD, well as looks for add-on
epilepsy, and autism. acquisitions MCAP is a capital intensive business
342
Low Threat
Medium Threat
MedCap Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed in
the Industry
Private Equity Firms
Private equity firms use funds from • MCAP has had success in
• Market risk in that there
accredited investors to purchase recognizing synergies and • Changes in the
is no guarantee that
ownership of or interest in an entity bringing value to the healthcare industry
companies invested in
that is not publicly traded companies they invest in (where MCAP
• Significant capital is will grow at all
required to make • MCAP invests in companies invests) include an
• Bad management, failed
investments operating in concentrated accelerating trend of
product launches, or
geographic regions, which young people being
• Need skilled other disappointments
Market allows for significant growth diagnosed with neuro
Oligopoly employees with in investment operation
Structure of the investment companies psychological
knowledge in investing can cause significant
via geographic expansion disabilities
Market Size $3.9T1 and accounting losses for PE firms
• MCAP has niche knowledge in • Middle market is
• Liquidity risk for
Industry the healthcare industry, underserved, with
> 10%1 investors, as funds sit in
Growth particularly in the Nordic more sellers than
a private equity firm for
region, helping them to make buyers
4-7 years on average
successful investments
1https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-careers/09/private-equity.asp
343
• MCAP is a small, private equity firm, that operates in a • Listed on NASDAQ Stockholm in
very specific region of the world 2016
• All MCAP financial publications are in Swedish, making it • MCAP invests in MedTech
difficult to attract investors who don’t speak/read companies and Specialty Pharma
Swedish • MedTech investments are
• Difficult to know if their investment strategy will be companies that sell different types
successful because of the nicheness of their investment of medical equipment and products
area • Specialty Pharma consists of
Investment
companies that develop and sell
Success
pharmaceutical products and is the
Return Breakdown: prioritized area
• MCAP’s last acquisition was in Jan.
2018, and revenue still increased
6.8% in 2019
• Companies invested in have strong
product portfolios that can lead the
way for future growth
344
Back to List
MedCap Takeaways
MCAP is a Good Business – 4/51 Future Outlook
Can MCAP Sustain its Advantages?

• MCAP’s investment strategy has worked
• MCAP invests in companies operating in the thus far, and there is no reason for it not
MedTech and pharmaceutical industries, to continue to do so
MCAP has a Niche specifically in the Nordic region • MCAP makes niche investments based
• MCAP has area specific knowledge and a very on their industry expertise
focused investment strategy
Can MCAP continue to grow?

• MCAP can continue to grow by making
• MCAP has created a strong portfolio over the last good investments and strategic
5 years, which is reflected by their financial acquisitions
success and growth
• Sales increased by 10% and profit increased
Good Investments & 41% in FY 2019
Is MCAP poised to continue to outperform?
Financials • Sales and EBITDA have a CAGR of 19% and 49%
• MCAP has room for growth, and its past
respectively over the last 4 years
performance indicates that its investment
• Gross profit and EBITDA margins were 56.3%
strategy works, so it should be able to
and 12.2% respectively in FY 2019, up from
30.1% and 1.5% in FY 2015
1Thiscompany analysis is based off of an MCAP investor presentation and the parts of annual reports that could be
translated into English, which makes for somewhat sparse information 345
Owen Stimpson
499%
5 Year TSR
OM:NLAB
Rank: 55/104
346
Enlabs Overview
Enlabs, or Entertainment Laboratories, is an entertainment EV / LTM EBITDA
company operating through three segments: brands, media, and
solutions. The majority of Enlab’s revenue comes from online
2019
gaming, such as online poker and betting.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x
EV / LTM EBITDA 19x 10.44x
PE 1.24x 13.90x
Revenue 102.95M 411.36M
EBITDA (6.05M) 105.46M
347
Enlabs Business Model
Sales by Segment
Online gaming under 5%
several different 3%
brands in regulated, or
NLAB is an online gambling
soon to be regulated,
Brands company in the Baltics.
markets. Various products
such as Casino, Live
• NLAB operates online 92%
Casino, Betting, Poker and
gambling sites that offer a
Bingo.
variety of online gambling Brands Solutions Media
games:
Conducts performance- • Casino games. Sales by Geography
Solutions based marketing, so • Live casino games 3% 5%
called affiliation. (through Evolution
Gaming). 5%
• Sports betting.
B2B services including
87%
delivering sports results • Holds approximately 25%
Media and technical solutions in market share in the Baltics
the online gaming online gambling market. Baltics Sweden Malta Other
industry.
NLAB is a low capital intensity business.
348
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Enlabs Competitive Analysis High Threat

• Online gambling
Oligopoly /
European Online Market
Monopolistic • Regulatory penetration has
Gambling Industry Structure • Disadvantageous continued to
Competition requirements: • Data that comes
regulatory changes. increase.
Market Size €22.2B1 • Are often with scale can
This industry consists of stringent • Latvian online
enable better
online gambling companies Industry and gambling
HSD1 product offerings. • Data breaches.
and services operating in Growth complex. grew at 29%
Europe, such as online poker • Brand name and YoY from
and sports betting. • Vary from reputation. • Other forms of
• Each country has different Q32019.
country to • Regulatory entertainment
regulations and country. • Lithuanian
competitive landscape: marketing becoming more market
• Finland is hyper • Subject to restrictions popular. anticipated to
competitive with change. impede grow fast.
over 200 players. • Network effects: competitors • Land-based casinos • Baltic
• Belarus is starting online gambling from making major push penetration
to ease regulations. can be social developing online / new catching up to
• NLAB has a commanding (especially live brand.
competitors. Nordic online
25% market share across games).
gambling
the Baltics.
penetration.
1. 2018 figures; https://www.egba.eu/uploads/2019/12/European-Online-Gambling-Key-Figures-2018.pdf

349
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • NLAB maintained its strong #1 position in
Latvian online gambling which is ≈70% of
sales.
• Not much room for growth: • Expanded to Lithuania which has likely
• NLAB operates in small markets (Latvia, Ukraine, and increased targetable market by 30%-50%.
Malta). NLAB expanded to
• Currently 5th place but seeking to
• NLAB will not be successful in expanding to new markets. new markets
expand market share.
• Unprofitable and negative EBITDA. • Made acquisition of KDB Games which will
enable a future expansion to Belarus.
• Keeping expansion to Ukraine open and
also operating in Sweden and Finland.
• Profitable and EBITDA positive from FY2016
Return Breakdown: EPS Results onwards.
Profitable and
• High ≈78% gross margins and ≈25% EBITDA
EBITDA positive
margins.
• Clean balance sheet with minimal debt.
• Y/Y online gambling growth in core Latvia
market is 29% in Q3 2019.
• Penetration in online gambling still
Growing markets lower than the Nordics.
• Online gambling penetration still low across
the world – but is growing, especially with
Covid-19.
350
Back to List
Enlabs Takeaways
NLAB is a High Quality Business- 5/5 Future Outlook
Can NLAB Sustain its Market Position?
• NLAB is a leading online gambling company in the
• NLAB operates in an industry with high regulatory
Baltics with commanding market share in Latvia,
barriers to entry.
and a strong presence in Lithuania and Estonia.
• NLAB has a commanding market position in Latvia and
NLAB has a moat • Highly regulated industries with restrictions on
strong position in the rest of the Baltics.
advertising impede new entrants.
• The Baltics are less competitive than other markets, such
• Land based operations are also required in Lithuania
as the UK.
and Belarus.
• Online gambling has grown, especially in Latvia, NLAB’s Can NLAB continue to grow faster than the industry?
largest market. • NLAB is poised to capture market growth through further
• NLAB has made product improvements such as adding online gambling market penetration.
NLAB has grown Evolution Gaming for live games. • NLAB can realize further growth in new markets and continue
consistently and to grow its ARPU in existing markets.
responsibly • ARPU grew from ≈€120 in Q12017 to ≈€225 in
Q32019.
• NLAB has expanded into Lithuania market while has Is NLAB poised to continue to outperform the market?
exited the less lucrative UK market. • NLAB has multiple avenues for further growth in existing
• Online gambling penetration continues to increase, and markets and new ones.
due to barriers to entry, NLAB is poised to capture • Online gambling, as a whole, is likely to grow, especially
NLAB has a runway for industry growth. because of Covid-19 lockdowns.
future growth • NLAB has made strides for future expansion into Belarus • NLAB’s 11.19x NTM EBITDA multiple is not at a major
and Ukraine; also further room for growth in Nordics premium to the market nor do they trade at a steep premium
and other markets such as Latin America. to peers.
351
Elizabeth DeSouza
496%
5 Year TSR
ENXTPA:S30
Rank: 56/104
352
Solutions 30 Overview
Solutions 30, headquartered in Luxembourg, provides support
solutions for new digital technologies to individuals and
professionals, such as, telecom support services, installation,
and maintenance. 2020 19.5x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 13.3x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x
NTM P/E 15.12x 28.60x Z
Revenue €127.5M €688.2M
353
Solutions 30 Business Model
• High-speed broadband S30 offers a wide range of IT Sales by Geography
installation related services to its customers 17.9%
• Installation and
• Solutions are delivered to end- 63.7%
maintenance of energy
users (both individuals and
IT Services related devices 18.5%
professionals), on behalf of large
• Installation and
telecom and digital OEM
assistance with payment France Benelux Other in Europe
companies
systems and POS
terminals • Customers use S30 to outsource
relatively unprofitable yet Sales by Category1
important service activities 4.1% 0.5% 0.3%
• S30 partners with large industrial 23.2% 61.7%

and service companies to provide
services to their customers 10.2%
• These activities include rolling- Telecom IT
out, installing, and maintaining Energy Retail
digital equipment and providing Security Internet of things
end-user support
• Group activities are concentrated S30 is a capital light business.
in Europe
1 sales by category for revenues from France

354
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Solutions 30 Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed in
the Industry
IT Consulting & Services • S30 has a fairly

• The density of the S30 concentrated customer base,
The players in this industry offer • Main competitors are
technician network allows with their largest customer • Number of screens
information technology and systems the internal
for rapid response time and accounting for 20% of per household and
integration services, including departments of major
customer satisfaction-10,000 revenue and their top 5 the use of internet
information technology consulting, technology groups,
technicians preforming largest accounting for 61%, video streaming
information management services, energy suppliers, and
60,000 tasks everyday so losing any one of these have and continue to
and commercial electronic data OEMs, some national
players, and lots of • S30 services can customers would have a grow
processing.
small regional accommodate rapid significant impact on • Internet operators
companies increases in volume and revenue are looking to
Market large scale rollouts • Political and administrative replace existing
Oligopoly • Minimal start up costs
Structure • Strong relationships with decisions (especially in copper cable
and low level of
regulation Europe’s largest technology countries experiencing networks with fiber
Market Size $2.26T1
groups economic slowdown / debt) optic ones
• Primary barriers are
Industry • The group is managed by against developing & • Roll out of 5G
HSD2 educational experience
Growth region, allowing for services modernizing networks requires
and ability to attract
to be tailored to the area’s telecommunications new kinds of
clients
specific needs infrastructure and energy services
distribution networks could
slow S30 growth
2YTD
355
• In 2015, S30 experienced a number of changes involving its
subsidiaries • Growth in France has been organic
over the last 5 years, driven by the
• Télima Digital World filed for bankruptcy in 2014, which
success of their fiber optic and smart
could have indicated a larger operating issue in S30, the meter energy products
parent company Successful • S30 Created 10 companies in 2018 to
• Unclear where they had the best opportunities for growth Organic meet the growth of their activities
• S30 also restructured its German subsidiaries DBS GmbH Growth • S30 has become a top three player in
and Connecting Cable France and Benelux regions
• S30 acquired a 60% stake in Spanish company Rexion • Lots of growth potential with energy
Computer, which increased investment outside of their core and IoT segments
business in France/Benelux regions
• International (outside of France)
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results growth has been driven largely by
strategic acquisitions and major
contract wins
• Acquisitions over the last 5 years have
Successful strengthened S30 positions both in
Acquisitions terms of geography and in solution
offerings
• Acquisitions in 2019 grew S30 market
share of the telecom sector
356
Back to List
Solutions 30 Takeaways
S30 is an Okay Business – 3.5/5 Future Outlook
Can S30 Sustain its Advantages?
• S30 has had success with both organic and • S30 has a recruitment strategy in place to
inorganic growth attract and retain technicians
• S30 has proven their ability to make strategic • Their relationships with European
Multiple Channels for acquisitions that expand their geographic technology companies have taken time to
Growth reach and increase their revenue create
• S30 has also proven that it is capable of • These same technology groups could do
organic growth, as shown by its success in the services S30 does themselves, making
France and Benelux regions S30 obsolete
Can S30 continue to grow?
• S30 has plans to grow both geographically
• S30 competitive advantages are weak and need and in services provided
consistent investment to stay relevant • S30 sees the Internet of Things segment as an
• Low barriers to entry make competition a area for strong growth
constant threat
Is S30 poised to continue to outperform?
• S30 has had strong topline growth over the last
Weak Advantages • Moderate multiple expansion, but still room
5 years and high gross profit margin of around
for more
60% (66% in FY 2019)
• Achieved growth goals in France and Benelux
• S30 EBITDA margin is consistently low, not
regions, which gives them a proven model to
having exceeded 9.5% in the last 5 years
work off of for other regions and continue to
outperform
357
Elizabeth DeSouza
492%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQCM:LUNA
Rank: 57/104
358
Luna Innovations Overview
Luna Innovations Incorporated, based in Roanoke, VA, LTM EV/Revenue Multiple2
develops, manufactures, and markets fiber optic sensing and
test and measurement products.
2020 2.5x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 0.8x
0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x
EV / LTM EBITDA2 N/A 18.38x
LTM P/E3 N/A 47.75x Z
EBITDA (92.56)K 6.82M
1NTM multiples not available prior to FY 2018

2EBITDA was negative for FY2015 359
3EPS was negative for FY2015
LUNA Business Model
Sales by Geography
• Fiber optic test and LUNA primarily sells to 10.3% 2.0% 0.5%
measurement telecommunications companies,
Products &
instruments defense agencies, government
19.4%
Licensing
• ODiSI platform system integrators, and researchers 67.8%
• LUNA products target the
automotive, aerospace, energy, and U.S.
• Provides research for Asia
Technology infrastructure industries Europe
customers in LUNA’s
Development • LUNA fiber optic sensing products
Canada, Central & South America
areas of focus
provide information on stress,
strain (ODiSI platform), and Sales by Category
temperature of other products in
their design or manufacturing
phases 63.1%
36.9%
• Sensing products also used to
monitor structural integrity of large
civil structures such as bridges Products and Licensing
• LUNA makes sales through regional Technology Development
teams of manufacturer
representatives and partner
LUNA ODiSI platform distribution channels LUNA is a capital intense business.
360
Low Threat
Medium Threat
LUNA Competitive Analysis High Threat

Electronic Equipment &
Instruments
• LUNA has proprietary • LUNA is subject to a licensing
The players in this industry are technology (own or agreement from Intuitive
involved in the manufacturing, design, license over 400 Surgical Inc., which if revoked
development, assembly, and servicing • High costs for R&D and would prevent LUNA from
patents)
of electronic equipment and manufacturing marketing, manufacturing, or
components. • Proprietary software
• Government contracting selling their fiber-optic
code that is critical to • Telecommunicatio
generates revenue, but products
their competitive ns industry is
these relationships are • Relations with the U.S.
advantage constantly
difficult to establish government are entirely on
Market Perfect • Good relationships with evolving
• Very specific and their terms, and the
Structure Competition major U.S. government • 2019 saw the
technical products, so government can prevent
agencies such as NASA launch of 5G
Market Size $327.36B1 companies require highly commercialization of LUNA
• Participant in the Small cellular networks
skilled employees to be technology should they
Industry Business Innovation foresee a national security
> 10%2 successful
Growth Research (SBIR) risk
program
• 40% of revenues were
• Reputation for high derived from the U.S.
quality products government
2Growth
361
over the last 5 years
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: The Actual Story• ofInthe Last
2018, Five
LUNA Years
acquired Micron
• In the years leading up to and including 2015, LUNA had Optics, which significantly increased
poor financial performance, making it an undesirable their measurement capabilities and
added three new product suites
investment
• Filed for bankruptcy in 2009 and reorganized in 2010 • In 2019, LUNA acquired General
Photonics Corporation a leading
• EBITDA was negative for a number of years provider in components used in
• LUNA had very high operating costs fiber optic-based applications
• No clear growth strategy and uncertain leadership • Revenue has grown close to 30%
since 2018
Growth &
• These acquisitions allow LUNA to
Acquisitions consolidate market share and lower
Consensus vs Results R&D costs, as LUNA is able to
Return Breakdown1: absorb the companies’ technology
• A new CEO was appointed in 2017
and is striving toward making LUNA
the leading provider of fiber optic
test, measurement, and control
equipment
• A new CFO was appointed in 2017
1Revenue used because EBITDA was negative in 2015

362
Back to List
Luna Innovations Takeaways
LUNA is a Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
Can LUNA Sustain its Advantages?
• LUNA creates and sells very specific types of
• LUNA’s main advantage is its
technology that are essential to client
technology, which is protected by
operations
patents that are set to expire in 2037
• Competition is steep in the market because
LUNA Serves a
there are only so many contracts to compete Can LUNA continue to grow?
Specific Purpose for • LUNA has made and will continue to make
• Reputation and track record is everything in strategic acquisitions in the last 5 years
order to win these contracts- LUNA has good • By acquiring competitors, LUNA eliminates
past relationships and credentials to point to competition and devotes less to R&D
expenses
• LUNA can also grow internationally and
• LUNA relies heavily on relationships that are diversify their sources of revenue
somewhat volatile in nature Is LUNA poised to continue to outperform?
• The U.S. government has complete flexibility in • Gross margins have steadily increased over
their relationship with LUNA and could hinder the last 3 years to 50%, which is promising
Volatile Relationships LUNA’s growth • Revenue is expected to grow to 81.9 M in
• LUNA’s profitability also relies on maintaining a NTM, but there is no indication that they
good relationship with Intuitive Surgical Inc. will meet this estimate
• Given LUNA’s volatile history it is unclear if
it will continue to outperform
363
Owen Stimpson
491%
OB:MEDI 5 Year TSR
Rank: 58/104
364
Medistim Overview In Norwegian krone (Kr)
Medistim ASA is a Norway-based company engaged in the EV / LTM EBITDA

provision of medical equipment and technology. It develops,
manufactures, and distributes medical devices primarily for
2019
cardiac and vascular surgery.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 10x 20x 30x 40x
PE 20.83x 53.86x
Revenue 249.97M 356.91M
EBITDA 57.76M 102.31M
365
Medistim Business Model
Products that combine
MEDI makes the only device that
ultrasound imaging
integrates ultrasound imaging and Sales by Geography
and transit time flow
TTFM. 6%
measurement (TTFM)
MiraQ
in a single system for
• Surgeons used either ultrasound
cardiac surgery,
imaging and TTFM for various 37%
vascular surgery, and
procedures but MEDI enables them to 45%
other tasks.
use both simultaneously.
• Improves patient outcomes:
during Coronary Artery Bypass 11%
Graft (CABG) surgery many
surgeons rely on their fingertips US Asia EU Rest
to determine blood flow – MEDI
enables them to use ultrasound MEDI is a medium capital intensity business.
The MiraQ designed for
cardiac surgery. imaging instead.
• MEDI seeks to make their MiraQ

products the standard of care for CABG
surgery and other coronary and vascular
surgeries.
366
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Medistim Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market • MEDI has

Cardiac Surgery Oligopoly • Fee for value model
Structure • Regulatory burdens: clinical evidence rather than fee-for
Quality Assurance Market Size ≈2B Kr1 need approval in each to support service increasing
Medical Devices market by regulatory product prevalence.
Industry body. effectiveness
MSD2 • Increases
Participants design, Growth (i.e. 2019
• Patents. demand for
manufacture, and sell medical • Industry understated by REQUEST • Product failure
approximately 1 billion as MEDI • Clinical evidence quality
devices that enable quality study). scandal.
has opportunities for growth in supporting assurance
assurance during cardiac • MEDI has
surgery procedures, such as the global vascular market. effectiveness (i.e. products.
studies). dominant
CABG. • MEDI is by the far the largest • New technology • REQUEST study
market share
player with 82% market share. • Significant R&D costs. emerges. demonstrated
which bolsters
• MEDI equipment used in • Approval for use by effectiveness of
reputation.
33% of total bypass hospital boards, etc. MEDI’s product:
surgeries worldwide. • MEDI has the
• Doctors need • 25% of
• Largest competitor has ≈7% only device
to be trained surgeries
share of bypass surgeries. which does
and familiar were
• 60% of surgeries use no ultrasound
with product improved by
quality assurance device to imaging and
as well. TTFM using
monitor blood flow –
technology.
opportunity for MEDI to grow. simultaneously.
1. 2019 10k.
2. Using CABG surgery per year growth as a proxy; https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/coronary-artery-bypass-graft-cabg-market 367
• MEDI consistently grew topline each year
• The CABG market is conservative and sensitive to change: through its distributors and sales force,
• And the biggest change MEDI could have asked for - being added
leveraging the clout it received from ECS
to European Society of Cardiology (ECS) and European
and EACTS.
Association for Cardio-Thoracic surgery (EACTS) as standard of
care during CABG – already happened five years ago. • FY2015 250M in revenue grew to
MEDI grew 363M in FY2019.
• Too early to invest until REQUEST results are in – difficult to judge value incrementally • Consistently expanded market share in US
of MEDI product without these results. market (largest market) by taking
advantage of trend towards value based
• Minimal avenues for growth. care:
• Market share increased from 17%
in FY2016 to 23% in FY2019.
• 5-year REQUEST study process culminated in
2019 report.
• Study showed that 25% of patients had
REQUEST results their surgery change based on data from
positive MEDI’s device.
• Underscoring MEDI’s argument that
surgeons relying on sensing a pulse is
inaccurate.
• Launched MiraQ product with goal of
Expanded into capturing share of vascular surgery market.
vascular segment • 1B market and just 15% of sales - but
growing at 18% each year.
368
Back to List
Medistim Takeaways
MEDI is a High Quality Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
• MEDI’s product is proprietary: MEDI is the only Can MEDI Sustain its Market Position?
supplier in the world offering a system that
• MEDI’s has a wide moat protected by regulatory
provides integrated TTFM and high frequency
hurdles, approval from customers (i.e. hospital
MEDI has a deep moat ultrasound imaging system for intraoperative use.
boards), and patents.
• Regulatory burdens, patents, and studies
• MEDI has a proprietary product.
demonstrating product effectiveness insulate MEDI
from competitors. • MEDI has successfully defended its high penetration
in core markets of Norway, Denmark, and Germany.
• MEDI maintained dominant position in Norway and
Denmark where all cardiac centres carry MEDI Can MEDI continue to grow faster than the industry?
equipment. • MEDI has the only product capable of integrating TTFM
MEDI grew • Expanded market presence in new markets: increased and ultrasound, and has a moat protecting this advantage.
US penetration to 23%, nearly doubled sales in Asia to • Competitors are minimal: MEDI is over 4x bigger than its
41.8M (where coronary surgeries are growing at 10% largest competitor (which is only competitor of note).
per year), got regulatory approval in Canada. • Industry poised to grow: just 40% of surgeries using any
• US market largest on earth but MEDI has only 23% quality assurance system.
penetration (compared to 70% penetration in Germany, Is MEDI poised to continue to outperform the market?
Spain, and Nordic region; and 80% in Japan). • MEDI has a wide moat and is poised to continue capturing
• 75% of CABG surgeries still have no quality market share as the market expands.
assurance to ensure proper blood flow; potential • There is a large opportunity in the US where 75% of CABG
MEDI has a runway for for MEDI to become “standard of care” in US. surgeries use no quality assurance – despite the trend
growth towards value-based care.
• Vascular market represents opportunity for growth:
• Strong presence for vascular surgery in Nordic • MEDI already has 23% market share.
markets and Germany but minimal presence • MEDI trades at 53x LTM earnings but has many avenues
elsewhere; 15% sales vascular customers but for growth (vascular market, US, etc.) a wide moat, and
growing at 18% annually. operating leverage which will enable them to outperform.
369
Owen Stimpson
489%
5 Year TSR
CPSE:AMBU B
Rank: 59/104
370
Ambu Overview In Danish krone (kr)
Ambu A/S is a Danish company that develops, produces, and EV / NTM EBITDA
markets diagnostic and life-supporting equipment (particularly
single-use equipment) and solutions to hospitals and rescue
2019
services.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Stock Price 37.7 kr 221.7 kr
Market Cap 9.06B kr 54.73B kr

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x
Enterprise Value 9.94B kr 56.19B kr
PE 47.27x 123.17x
Revenue 1.89B 2.82B
EBITDA 434M 642M
371
Ambu Business Model
Sales by Segment
28%
Products for anesthesia, AMBU sells a variety of medical 23%
Anesthesia such as resuscitators, face devices, with a focus on single-use
Products masks, and breathing products.
circuits.
• AMBU focuses on single use 49%
products (used by only patient)
PMD Visualization Anaesthesia
Visualization products as they are always clean, always
such as single-use readily available, and cheaper for
Visualization customers.
endoscopes, airway tubes
Products • For advanced products (i.e. Sales by Geography
with integrated cameras,
and video laryngoscopes. endoscopes) single use 11%
ensures that doctors
always have latest
Products for patient technology (due to higher 45%
Patient monitoring and churn rate). 44%
Monitoring and diagnostics, such as • AMBU designs and manufactures
Diagnostic cardiology and neurology their products, and sells mostly
(PMD) Products electrodes, neck collars, direct through its salesforce. NA EU Rest
and training manikins. • Primary customers include
hospitals and rescue services.
AMBU is a medium capital intensity business.
372
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Ambu Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market
Varies
Structure
Global Medical • Reputation.
Market Size ≈$425.5B1
Device Market
Industry • Regulatory burdens. • Customers are
MSD1
Growth recurring (due
Participants, design, to single-use). • Regulations and
manufacture and sell medical • Often requires
• Market overstated: AMBU guidelines for
devices for a range of medical approval by hospital
participates mainly in the contamination in
uses. board. • Sunk R&D. • Product failure.
single-use medical device hospitals have gotten
segment. more stringent.
• AMBU is the leader in the single • Doctors need to be • Economies of • Regulatory
use endoscopy market comfortable with scale. change.
• Capital budget
(estimated 2.5B size by 2024). product.
reductions at
• AMBU sees opportunity for • First mover hospitals.
growth in Duodenoscopy • Technologically (single-use
market (3.0B size at full single advanced product. endoscopes).
use penetration).
• AMBU is the only large
company focused on single-use • Product breadth.
medical devices.
1. https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/medical-devices-market-100085
373
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • AMBU built a market for single use
endoscopes – a market which didn’t exist
prior.
• Growth will begin to slow as new demand for single use products • Product is better for hospitals given
slows, AMBU’s market penetration increases, and there are less lower cost, low risk of
new markets to expand to. contamination (cross-
contamination regulations getting
• Gross margins and EBITDA margins have trended downwards since more stringent too), more available
2010. AMBU grew through (not being used by another doctor,
endoscopy no need for transport etc.)
• Expanded product line to grow number of
procedures product could be used for
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results (from less than 1.2M to ≈24M).
• Visualization not a reportable 2015
segment to now 49% of sales (484M).
• 96K units to now anticipated >1M
units FY2020.
• AMBU continued to make consistent
AMBU supported acquisitions.
growth in other ways • AMBU invested heavily in its salesforce each
too year; doubled EU and APAC visualization sales
forces and tripled NA sales force in FY2019.
Margins improved
• Gross margin increased from 51% to 59% and
from FY2015 to
EBITDA margin increase to 3% to 19.6%.
FY2019
374
Back to List
Ambu Takeaways
AMBU is a High Quality Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
Can AMBU Sustain its Market Position?
• AMBU is a first mover in the single-use medical
• AMBU is first mover in single-use endoscope market
device market, particularly endoscopes, and only
and only player with scale focused on the industry.
large player focused on single-use products.
AMBU has a moat • Regulations and patents are strong barriers to entry.
• Protected by patents and regulatory burdens.
• Investing in R&D and sales force to maintain leading
• Technological advantage due to focused R&D on
position.
single use products.
Can AMBU continue to grow faster than the industry?
• Single use endoscope market essentially non-existent • AMBU has a robust product pipeline with 13 new
before AMBU launched products in 2012. products to launch within next two years.
• Visualization (encompasses single use endoscopes) not • Strong direct sales force.
a reportable segment to now 49% of sales. • AMBU is poised to launch product in for duodenoscopy
AMBU created and
• Single use endoscope unit growth average for past five which will enable them to grow faster (Duodenoscopy
capitalized on opportunity
years: 60%. division of hospitals general control largest portion
in single use endoscopes.
• Other segments growth more modest at average endoscopy budget for the hospital).
low single digits per year. Is AMBU poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Expanded product lines to cover wide range of • AMBU has essentially created a new medical device
potential procedures. market and capitalized heavily on that opportunity.
• Single-use endoscopy market still maturing and growing • So far, AMBU has done everything right: create a
rapidly. compelling value proposition, invest in sales force, and
expand product line to grow TAM.
• And AMBU is best suited to capture growth given
AMBU has a runway for • AMBU will likely continue to grow and maintain
first mover advantage, product breath,
growth advantage because of this.
specialization in segment, and scale (lower cost).
• AMBU has a robust product pipeline: 13 new single use • However, at 123x forward earnings any setback at all in
endoscopes to launch within next two years. AMBU’s growth will cause them to underperform.
375
Max Schieferdecker
483%
5 Year TSR
AIM:LTG
Rank: 60/104
376
Learning Technologies Overview
Learning Technologies Group is an E-learning company based
in London that delivers digital and blended learning solutions
to staff across the globe working in large multinational
companies and government. 2020 21.3x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 16.7x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x
NTM P/E 33.45x 30.96x Z
EBITDA 3.56M 42.19M
377
Learning Technologies Business Model
0.1%
• Direct collaboration with LTG drives learning and talent
Content for business performance
organizations to teach a
& 31.8%
targeted group of people a • LTG operates has a holding
Services
specific thing company for 11 subsidiaries 68.1%
• Software designed for a • It IPOed in 2013 with the

Software variety of talent intention of consolidating a
Software & Platforms Content & Services Rental Income
& management applications rather fragmented industry
Platforms as well as training • Utilizes the “buy and
development tools Sales by Geography
build” strategy
• Content & Services are 15.3%
typically one-time charges
while Software and
19.8%
Platforms offer a solid base 64.9%
of recurring revenue
• The focus is on all aspects of
the employee lifecycle, which US UK Rest of the World
is achieved by the
development of long-term LTG is a capital light business as all no
client relationships manufacturing is involved
378
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Learning Technologies Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Corporate E-learning
The players in this industry offer help

developing online training programs
covering compliance, IT management,
• The ability to consolidate
and industry-related courses.
• Very low barriers to entry and develop synergies
• Anyone can offer between subsidiaries
these services with • The rest of the • Management may not be
• Companies have
little up-front costs industry is highly able to adequately oversee
Market Perfect become more
• Established players’ fragmented 11 companies at the same
Structure Competition digitized
reputations do play a role • A mix of both single time time
Market Size $70B1 in customer decision and recurring revenues
making, however allows for a more balance
Industry
HSD1 approach
Growth
1https://www.prnewswire.com/in/news-releases/e-learning-market-size-is-expected-to-grow-at-a-cagr-of-10-85-by-2025-valuates-reports
379
• LTG IPOed in November 2013 with the intention of growing • Over the past 5 years, LTG
via consolidation acquired 7 companies and spun
• By June 2015, had made 2 acquisitions and merged them off a few more
into one company, LEO Learning • A major focus of these
• However, given the inorganic nature of their growth acquisitions was to expand
plan and the uncertainty surrounding the success of their presence in the software
side of the E-learning
the acquisitions, it was very difficult for analysts to
business
accurately model the company
• More recurring revenue
Return Breakdown: Successful leads to more stable
Execution of cash flows
Consolidation • Strong increase in the financial
Plan numbers as acquisitions were
added to the portfolio
• Revenue grew at a CAGR of
59.9% from £19.9m to
£130.1m
• EBIT grew at a CAGR of 85.2%
from £1.4m to £16.6m
• EPS grew at a CAGR of 60.4%
from 0.239 pence to 1.584
pence
380
Back to List
Learning Technologies Takeaways
LTG is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
Can LTG Sustain its Advantages?
• Due to the wide variety of products in the space that • While they do have an advantage at the
LTG offers, cross selling has been quite effective moment given their specific
• The average client has purchased 1.3 products acquisitions, there is nothing stopping
across all subsidiaries other companies from following the
LTG has a Moat • This also lends to a broad client base, as LTG is not same business model and further
concentrated in one industry consolidating the industry
• The large percentage of recurring revenue has led to Can LTG continue to grow?
strong margins and cash generation for continued future • Given LTG’s business model revolves
acquisitions as well around the consolidation of an industry, it
is highly likely that LTG will at least
continue to grow through M&A
• Recent acquisition of an online learning platform just prior • Organic growth is also not out of the
to COVID will likely prove to be beneficial in the future question, but is not as certain
Positive Impact of
• Structural changes in general in the way information is Is LTG poised to continue to outperform?
COVID on the presented will likely be permanently impacted
Future • Because of the unpredictability about the
• LTG is well positioned to capitalize on these
size and success of future acquisitions, it is
opportunities
very difficult to accurately get a stock price,
so there is room for outperformance
• The CEO Jonathan Satchell and CFO Neil Elton have shown • The scale of their growth is also quite
Strong
that they are excellent at creating extremely accretive promising due to their strong management
Management Team acquisitions and communicating their strategy to investors
team and industry trends
381
Owen Stimpson
477%
5 Year TSR
OM:NOTE
Rank: 61/104
382
NOTE Overview In Swedish Krona (Kr)
NOTE is a northern European manufacturing partner with an EV / LTM EBITDA

international platform for manufacturing electronics-based
products that require high technology competence and flexibility
2019
through product lifecycles.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Stock Price 9.95 Kr 43.35 Kr

0x 2x 4x 6x 8x 10x
Enterprise Value 329.39M 1.42B Kr
PE 9.39x 14.01x
Revenue 1.12B 1.76B
EBITDA 56.4M 151.5M
383
NOTE Business Model
Sales by Customer
Help customers make item 15%
“produceable,” develop
Development
prototypes, and ensure
20%
efficient manufacturing.
NOTE is a manufacturing partner 12% 73%
for electronics production.
Help management with • Helps customers through the

Industrial Communication MedTech Defence
productions costs, quality, entire product life-cycle from
and can support development to production.
Production production through Sales by Geography
NOTE’s own production • Specialize in products that
33%
plants in China and require high technological
Estonia. competence and in low batch size. 67%
• Customers in a variety of
industries: MedTech, defense,
Help manage introduction
industrial, etc.
of new product versions EU Rest
After-Sales
and ongoing maintenance
and service requirements.
NOTE is a high capital-intensive business.
384
Low Threat
Medium Threat
NOTE Competitive Analysis High Threat

• Major product
Global Semiconductor Market Monopolistic issue which can
& Electronic Parts Structure Competition damage
Manufacturing Market Size 755.1B1 • Capital intensity – reputation.
need high start up
• Increased • Digitization of
This industry manufactures Industry capital to open
LSD1 • Reputation as competition on
semiconductors and other Growth manufacturing facility. everyday items has
trusted partner. price from
electronic parts that are used • This industry definition is increased demand
Eastern for electronic parts.
in a variety of different overly broad – NOTE operates
• Highly specialized • Long-term European
applications. in a specific niche: electronic
industry. relationships competitors.
parts manufacturing consulting • Increased
for northern European • High human with customers, • China plant
geopolitical issues
companies. capital parts suppliers, exposed to
with manufacturing
• NOTE mentions Enics, Inission, requirements. and geopolitical
in China.
Kitron, OrbitOne and Scanfil as manufacturers. risks.
key competitors. • Major contracts that • Customer
• NOTE is the smallest of can be long-term. concentration:
the group in terms of 15 largest
revenue. customers are
• Other niche players as well. 45% of sales.
1. IBIS World
385
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • NOTE both expanded its customer base
and consistently upselled existing
• Unlikely NOTE will grow:
customers.
• Relatively mature industry and NOTE often deals with SMEs.
• NOTE does not seem interested in expanding geographically. • Focused on SMEs with large growth
• Sold mechanical unit in 2015. potential which grew and became larger
NOTE grew customers.
• 5% EBITDA margin business, EBITDA margins have trended • Targeted specific geographies in Nordics
downwards since FY2011, and were negative in FY2010. and became market leader, enabling NOTE
to capture market growth.
• Capital intensive business with potential working capital issues. • Revenue grew steadily at 12% CAGR –
above management’s 10% target.
• Promoted VP of sourcing to management
Return Breakdown: EPS Results which underscores focus on costs.
• Cut labor costs and consistent focus on
Margins improved
managing cost structure.
• EBITDA margin expanded from 5% in FY2015
to 7.9% in FY2019.
• High working capital investment is nature of
the business, but management has been
focused on managing it by taking steps to
reduce cash tied up in inventory.
Cash flow maintained
• Inventory balance constant from
FY2018 to FY2019 despite large
increase in sales.
• Cash flow from Ops positive each year.
386
Back to List
NOTE Takeaways
NOTE is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
• NOTE operates in a highly specialized industry, Can NOTE Sustain its Market Position?
with high capital requirements, and long-term • NOTE operates in an industry with high barriers to entry .
contracts/relationships. • NOTE has demonstrated strong customer captivity, which
• NOTE focuses on specific geographies where it has an has been a key revenue growth driver.
NOTE has a moat advantage, and is not afraid to divest from places • NOTE has shown an ability to remain focused on its core
where it does not: markets and services.
• Divested Swedish mechanical segment in
2015.
Can NOTE continue to grow faster than the industry?
• Divested from Norway in 2016.
• NOTE is a leader in the Nordic market and has remained
• NOTE did not expand across Europe and into different focused on maintain existing customers and capturing growth
segment but doubled-down on the Nordics and its in that market specifically.
existing services. • Gives them an advantage relative to peers who are
• Pursued new customers which had growth potential focused on other geographies and segments of the
NOTE pursued steady, and maintained existing customers by investing in market.
consistent growth in both quality.
revenue and bottom line Is NOTE poised to continue to outperform the market?
• 80% of sales are sourced from customer
relationships longer than five years old. • NOTE can likely outperform the market if there continues to
be growth in the Nordics as NOTE is very well positioned to
• Focus on cost efficiency increased EBITDA margins capture this growth.
from 5% to 7.9%.
• If not, NOTE will struggle to outperform.
• Focused, steady approach to growth and returns can • NOTE has already leveraged its fixed cost based as evidenced
likely continue. by the shrinking gap between gross margins and EBITDA
NOTE can keep it up
• NOTE can continue to incrementally add new customers margins.
and upsell existing ones as the market expands.
387
Max Schieferdecker
472%
5 Year TSR
ASX:DDR
Rank: 62/104
388
Dicker Data Overview
Dicker Data is a value added, wholesale distributor based in LTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
Kurnell, New South Wales, Australia, that focuses on the IT
hardware, software, and cloud products of large, global
2020 19.4x
technology companies.
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 15.5x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x
Enterprise Value 372.51M AUD 1.44B AUD
LTM P/E 80.00x 22.83x Z
Revenue 1.08B 1.76B
389
Dicker Data Business Model
Primary Products Context Sales by Product Type
DDR helps businesses scale and 8.3%
• Distribution of IT
Infrastructure compete for larger opportunities
hardware products
• DDR acts as the middleman
24.4%
between global technology 67.3%
• Perpetual and
companies and local,
subscription licensing
Software Australian-based resellers
of software and cloud
products • Products come from HP, Infrastructure Software Services
LG, Logitech, Samsung,
• Sales of 3rd party and many more Sales by Geography
warranties and other • Makes money on the spread
Services 6.6%
services, in addition between their purchase price
to commissions and their sale price
93.4%
Australia New Zealand
DDR is a capital intensive business due to its

need for sufficient amounts of capital to operate
390
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Dicker Data Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Australian IT Distribution
The players in this industry distribute

• Strong relationships with
IT products to resellers in Australia.
both their vendors and
• Most large vendors resellers
already have reliable and • High brand awareness and
trusted • Increased need
great reputation as a • The two founders, David
for IT products as
• High up-front costs makes leading distributor in Dicker and Fiona Brown,
Market businesses
Oligopoly it difficult to compete with Australia collectively own 67% of the
Structure become more
the already-scaled, • Close proximity to Sydney company
digitized
Market Size $6.29B1 existing players in the allows DDR to provide
space same-day delivery to
Industry
> 10%1 resellers in the Sydney
Growth
area
1Investor Presentation
391
• As DDR continued to successfully

• Micro cap stock with no analyst coverage distribute their vendor’s
• The stock was not on the radars of many investors products, they were able to
• Extremely low profit margins meant that in order to leverage their success to get
realize significant bottom line growth, top-line would Past more business
have to grow at a very high rate Performance Led • They were able to attract new
to Greater vendors, which significantly
Volume reduced their vendor
concentration risk
Return Breakdown: • They were trusted with more
Consensus vs Results product lines from existing
customers
• Arguably the most important feature

that is necessary for distributors to
grow is increased capacity
No Analyst Estimates Laid Out Plans to
Increase • In 2019, DDR sold its current facility,
which it now leases, and is in the
Capacity process of building a facility next
door which will double the
capacity of their operations
392
Back to List
Dicker Data Takeaways
DDR is an Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
• Given the tough unit economics that distributors for Can DDR Sustain its Advantages?
large tech companies face, the fact that DDR was able
to reach economies of scale puts it in a better
• DDR should be able to keep its
financial position than potential competitors
reputation and relationships that have
made them successful up to this point
DDR has a Moat • Strong reputation as one of, if not the, best
technology distributors in Australia
• The increased capacity close to Sydney
should allow them to sustain their
• This is evidenced by their portfolio of products presence within Sydney as well
from the most well-known IT companies
around the world
Can DDR continue to grow?
• The distribution industry is notorious for its extremely • When the new facility opens up in the near
low margins, and DDR is no exception to that rule future, capacity will double which will
• Although top-line has grown substantially, likely lead to strong growth figures in the
margins have not material increased over future
the same period of time
Financial Strategy
• DDR pays out all of its profit in the form of dividends, Is DDR poised to continue to outperform?
could be a Cause for
as David Dicker doesn’t take a salary and is only paid
Concern by these dividends
• Given the high growth that will likely be
seen in the future, it is highly likely that
• This makes DDR a great dividend stock, but not
seeing profits being reinvested into the business DDR will continue to outperform even at
is a cause for concern when the company is the relatively high multiples it is currently
growing trading at
393
Elizabeth DeSouza
470%
5 Year TSR
TSX:APHA
Rank: 63/104
394
Aphria Inc. Overview
Aphria Inc., based in Leamington, Canada, produces and sells NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
medical and adult-use cannabis and cannabis-derived extracts.
2020 31.1x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 22.4x
Stock Price 1.01 CAD 6.69 CAD
0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x
Market Cap 53.00M CAD 1.91B CAD
Enterprise Value 43.76M CAD 1.91B CAD
P/E 101.00x N/A Z
Revenue 600K CAD 237.1M CAD
EBITDA (3.0)M CAD (41.1)M CAD
395
Aphria Business Model
• pharmaceutical- APHA sells cannabis products for 1.7% 33.3%
grade medical medical and recreational use directly to
cannabis consumers
Cannabis products • APHA sells cannabis in a variety of 65.0%
Products • adult use forms including vapes, edibles,
recreational concentrates, topicals, and wholesale North America Europe
cannabis products Latin America
products
• APHA brands include Solei, RIFF, and
Sales by Category
Good Supply, with each targeting a
1.3% 18.4%
different type of audience & Broken
Coast a wholly owned grower
• Brands are targeted at current/ novice 15.6%
users, experienced / art community 66.6%
users, and regular users respectively 2.4%
Medical Cannabis Adult-use Cannabis
• Medical cannabis patients can order Wholesale Cannabis Distribution Operations
directly from APHA (online or over the Other
phone) using their prescription
• APHA has supply agreements with APHA is a capital moderate business as they
Aphria and its subsidiaries offer cannabis produce the cannabis but not all of their
Canadian retailers in 10 provinces and
products such as the cartridge above products in full
Yukon, accessing 99.8% of Canadians
396
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Aphria Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Pharmaceuticals
The players in this industry research, • APHA is waiting approval to

• One of only a few licensed
develop, market, and distribute drugs, use for facilities they have
producers with
most commonly in the healthcare • Strict governmental already invested in (Aphria
agreements in every • Increase in
sector regulations on approval of One, Aphria Diamond)
province in Canada popularity of CBD
all pharmaceuticals • APHA is reliant on a license
• Seed-to-Sale quality (compound
• Cannabis is a controlled with Health Canada to
management program, a derived from
substance in certain cultivate, store, and sell
509 step process, that goes Hemp) acting as a
Market countries / states cannabis products
Oligopoly beyond cannabis industry stepping stone to
Structure • Significant funds needed • The industry is highly
regulations mandated by legalization of
for R&D to create a regulated, causing adult-use
Market Size $1.3T1 Health Canada.
product that is both safe diminished profitability cannabis
• Brand loyalty- APHA adult-
Industry and enjoyable to the target • International legislation can
MSD1 use brands target very
Growth customer complicate and discourage
specific customer bases to
investments in cannabis
create recurring revenue
companies such as APHA
1https://investmentbank.com/pharma-industry-overview/
397
• APHA only began carrying out business in 2012 and did
• Recreational Cannabis was legalized
not generate revenue until 2014, making its future in
across Canada in 2018, creating a way
2015 very uncertain for APHA to significantly increase
• Medical cannabis had very strict regulations on its Legalization & revenues
production and distribution in 2015 Acquisitions
• Acquisition of CC Pharma has given
• Cannabis industry was largely untried, making investors APHA access to the German market and
warry of companies like APHA’s ability to succeed generated significant sales and cash flow
• Cannabis had the reputation of an illicit and scary
substance • A short-seller made allegations in 2018
that Aphria was ultimately a scheme to
Consensus vs Results funnel funds from retail shareholders into
Return Breakdown: the pockets of insiders
• He also claimed that Aphria insiders
bought worthless companies overseas
Worrisome through shell companies and then had
Allegations Aphria buy out these companies at
inflated prices
• After these allegations, two executives
including the CEO stepped down from
their positions
• Shares plunged more than 50% in the
wake of these allegations
398
Back to List
Aphria Inc. Takeaways
APHA is an Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
• The Cannabis industry is not necessarily Can APHA Sustain its Advantages?
the most desirable space to be in • Part of APHA’s advantage is the quality of their
• Cannabis is legalized on a state by state products, but their products are mainly protected as
basis in the U.S. and cannabis cannot be trade secrets
transported across state lines • APHA’s ability to sell internationally can be replicated
Controversial • Cannabis must be produced in the state it by other companies by simply complying with
Industry is sold in, meaning APHA will have to legislation and investing in facilities
invest in production facilities in every state
it wants to sell in Can APHA continue to grow?
• Aphria has established a somewhat • Legalization of vapes, concentrates, and edibles give APHA
legitimate reputation in what some still a catalyst for revenue growth
consider an illicit space • Received German certification to export Canadian
cannabis for German distribution, which would cut costs
• APHA recently posted a $99.8M CAD net loss, and increase revenue
of which $64 M were related to one off losses • Cannabis seems to be heading away from the controlled
due to Covid-19 substance category, which APHA is poised to capitalize on
• EPS was negative in the past year
Mixed Recent Is APHA poised to continue to outperform?
• Even in Covid-19 times, APHA revenue has
Financial • APHA continues to increase its efficiency in productions
continued to grown (many of its peers have
Performance (dried cannabis production costs down 5% to $0.88 CAD
seen declines in revenue) per gram) which bodes well for profitability
• Aphria is a cash flow positive business, with • Revenue has grown year over year and is anticipated to
around $500 million in cash on their balance continue this trend over the next 3 years
sheet
399
Owen Stimpson
467%
5 Year TSR
TSX:CJT Rank: 64/104
400
Cargo Jet Overview In Canadian (CAD) Dollars
Cargojet Inc. provides time sensitive overnight air cargo

NTM EV/NTM EBITDA Multiple
services in Canada, and internationally. Its air cargo business
activities include domestic overnight air cargo between 15 2019
cities.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Stock Price $25.78 $144.00

11.40x 11.60x 11.80x 12.00x 12.20x 12.40x
PE 19.83x 59.08x
Revenue 289M 486.6M
EBITDA 45.1M 129.3M
401
Cargo Jet Business Model
Provides a variety of time
sensitive air-cargo CST is Canada’s pre-eminent overnight
Air Cargo Sales by Division
services, primarily in and time-sensitive air cargo company.
Canada.
• Cargo focused – only does passenger
routes on an ad-hoc basis for charter 28%
routes.
• Consolidates cargo from customers

and transports it to 14 Canadian 72%
cities, and a few international routes.
• Handles the “middle mile” as
many logistics companies focus Domestic Cargo Charter Flights
on the “last mile.”
CJT is a high capital intensity business.
• Also provides aircraft and crew for
charter flights, primarily within
Canada and between the US and
Canada.
Air Cargo domestic westbound flights (2019
presentation).
402
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Cargo Jet Competitive Analysis High Threat

• CJT has access to

Market • Contracts can be • Pilot unions
Oligopoly 90% of the
Structure long-term. can increase • Ecommerce which
Canadian
Canadian Air Market Size 762.2M1 population. costs. often requires
Cargo Industry • Start-up capital is • Services cargo flight in
Industry Canada has grown.
MSD2 required to get areas like • One-time
Growth
Consists of companies that access to airplanes. Nunavut, problems can • $29.63B in
transport cargo via planes in which are have long-term 2015 to
Canada. remote. reputational $49.67B in
• CJT is the clear leader in • Airport hanger / damage. 2019 – a 68%
pure-play air freight in runway space is increase.
Canada; very few significant limited, and • Reputation for
• Customer • USMCA
competitors. contracts are long- reliability and
concentration: poised to
term. timeliness
3 customers increase e-
• Major Canadian airlines (i.e. extremely
provided commerce by
Air Canada) only offer belly important.
• Canadian regulations 60.3% of lowering
space (not the entire plane) are restrictive for duties.
revenue in
for Cargo. foreign carriers. • Scale enables CJT to FY2018.
spread out costs.
1. Canada only; Ibis World

2. Canadian domestic planned air travel growh 403
In Canadian (CAD) Dollars

The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • Revenue grew at 16.7% CAGR from FY2014
• There has not been much growth historically– no reason to believe to FY2015 from $192.4M to $486.6M.
that there will be rapid growth in the next five years. • Signed major seven year contract with
• From FY2004 to FY2014 revenue grew at a 6.6% CAGR. Canada Post and Purolator that was main
• Air cargo is not a high growth industry either.
Signed contracts reason revenue increased 50% from
and grew revenue FY2014 to FY2015.
• Margins have been shrinking: FY2010 9.8% EBIT margin shrank to
2.5% in FY2014. • And then extended it by 3 years in
FY2017.
• CJT has high leverage at 13.8x EBITDA in FY2014, and negative cash • Signed many other major contracts (i.e.
flow from operations. UPS).
• Ecommerce in Canada has grown to ≈50B per
Return Breakdown: year, yet retail penetration still lags many
The ecommerce and other countries, such as the UK, US, and China.
Consensus vs Results Amazon opportunity • Amazon bought warrants that could be buy
9.9% of CJT, with vesting contingent on 400M
of business from Amazon.
• Leverage reduced to 4.6x EBITDA in FY2019 –
debt was used to fuel growth but then paid
down.
Financial health and • Cash flow from ops positive each year from
efficiency improved FY2015-FY2019 and EBIT margins doubled:
6.6% in FY2015 to 12.3% in FY2019.
• Efficiency increased: revenue per plane up
from $12.5M to $20M from FY2015 to FY2019.
404
Back to List
Cargo Jet Takeaways In Canadian (CAD) Dollars
CJT is a Solid Business – 3.5/5 Future Outlook

• Capital intensity, length of contracts, and
Can CJT Sustain its Market Position?
regulatory burdens impede new entrants.
• CJT has a dominant position in the Canadian overnight air
• CJT has multi-year major contracts that extend past
CJT has a moat and cargo market and can reach 90% of the population.
2020, giving strong earnings visibility.
strong revenue visibility • CJT’s 99%> success rate has given it a strong reputation.
• Amazon warrants demonstrate Amazon’s
commitment to continue to grow alongside CJT in • CJT has multiple, large multi-year contracts signed.
Canada.
Can CJT continue to grow faster than the industry?
• Ecommerce increased demand for air-cargo and CJT • CJT’s deal with Amazon makes CJT positioned well to
capitalized: capture growth linked to rising ecommerce sales.
• Major Canadian airlines may start to enter the market in a
• Signed major contracts.
CJT capitalized on the rise bigger way if the industry continues to grow; firms might
of ecommerce • Expanded flights to seven days a week from five vertically integrate more of their supply chain.
due to customer demand driven by ecommerce • Already happened with “last mile” delivery to a large
(consumer now expected quick delivery on extent.
weekdays and weekends).
Is CJT poised to continue to outperform the market?
• There is an opportunity to grow for CJT but their multiple
• CJT sees the path for sustained growth to come from requires immense growth for continued outperformance.
more ecommerce fueled demand. • At 59x P/NTM EPS it is very likely CJT will see multiple
CJT is betting on
• But the company is still highly levered at 4.4x EBITDA, contraction.
ecommerce going forward
and losing one major contract renewal could severely • There is always the possibility of losing a major contract and
damage both the top and bottom line. CJT’s balance sheet is still not strong.
405
Elizabeth DeSouza
449%
5 Year TSR
OB:KIT
Rank: 65/104
406
Kitron ASA Overview
Kitron ASA is a Norwegian electronics manufacturing services
company, that develops, industrializes, and manufactures
electronics for the energy/telecoms, defense/aerospace,
offshore/marine, medical device, and industry sectors. 2020 8.9x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 9.7x
8.5x 9.0x 9.5x 10.0x
LTM P/E 11.63x 16.06x Z
Revenue 1.95B NOK 3.30B NOK
EBITDA 132.30M NOK 300.09M NOK
1NTM multiples not available for FY 2015

407
Kitron ASA Business Model
2.8% 17.9%
KIT manufactures electronics 16.9%
• high level assembly
of complex embedded in customer products
electromechanical and box-build products
20.8%
• Kitron provides a wide variety of
products services to its customers 41.7%
Electronics
• Services ranging
Manufacturing • It operates in 5 main areas: the Norway Sweden
from development, Rest of Europe USA
& Assembly energy/telecoms,
& design to defense/aerospace, Other
Services
industrialization, offshore/marine, medical device,
logistics, and industry sectors Sales by Line of Business
manufacturing, and • Business model covers the whole
6.5%
22.5%
redesign value chain from development,
18.1%
industrialization, purchasing,
logistics, and maintenance to 13.9%
redesign
39.0%
• OEM’s are focusing more on their
Defense/AeroSpace Energy/Telecoms
competencies and transferring more
Industry Medical Devices
of the value chain to EMS partners Offshore/Marine
like Kitron
• KIT offers increased flexibility,
reduced costs, and improved quality KIT is a capital intense business, as their core
Kitron manufacturing center to its OEM customers business is manufacturing
408
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Kitron ASA Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed in
the Industry
Electronic Manufacturing
Services
• KIT continuously improves
The players in this industry design,
upon its manufacturing
manufacture, test, distribute, and
quality through programs
assemble electronic components for
such as Six Sigma & LEAN
original equipment manufacturers • Increasing
(OEMs) manufacturing, giving it • Exposed to price risks
pressure on
superior quality over other because raw materials
• Manufacturing is a very manufacturers to
EMS follow international
capital intense business be environmentally
• KIT considers the market prices for
• Manufacturing complex conscious
Market “competence” of its electronic components
Oligopoly electronic components • Rising demand for
Structure employees as their • KIT operates in countries
requires niche expertise consumer
ultimate competitive that are susceptible to
Market Size ~$542B1 electronics in
advantage corruption and supply
developed and
Industry • KIT adds value to its chain disruption
HSD1 developing nations
Growth customers by offering
flexibility, competence,
quality, closeness, and full
value chain capability
1https://www.globenewswire.com/fr/news-release/2020/01/06/1966638/0/en/Outlook-on-the-World-s-Electronics-Manufacturing-Services-EMS-Market-
409
to-2023-Industry-Analysis-Financial-Benchmarks-and-In-Depth-Profiles-of-102-EMS-ODM-Firms.html
• In 2015, there was uncertainty about the future prospects
of KIT • All revenue segments have grown
• In 2014, a new CEO was appointed so there was uncertainty over the past 5 years
surrounding his ability to grow the company • Defense spending has grown
Overall Growth worldwide since 2015 & with KIT
• KIT is a small Norwegian company specializing in electronic
revenues in this sector increased
manufacturing, which is normally left to large manufactures in of Industry 65% in 2019
countries like the U.S. or China Sectors
• Offshore/ marine revenues
increased 341% in 2019 due to
increased activity by customers in
Consensus vs Results the oil and gas fields
Return Breakdown:
• The current CEO, Lars Nilsson was
appointed in 2014, and has since
laid out a clear growth plan
Growth Plan • The growth plan targets three
areas: organic growth, operational
Laid out by New improvements, and acquisitions
CEO
• In 2019, KIT acquired the EMS
division of API Technologies Corp.
in the U.S. , which strengths their
position in the U.S.
410
Back to List
Kitron Takeaways
KIT is a Great Business – 4.5/5 Future Outlook
• One of KIT’s advantages over Can KIT Sustain its Advantages?
manufactures in the U.S. or China, is its • KIT continuously looks to improve upon its
proximity and efficiency of service to its quality in manufacturing, one of its main
Scandinavian customers advantages
• KIT also offer niche expertise in the • Continues to streamline processes in its
KIT has a Good electronic manufacturing services value chain, making it desirable to
Business Model industry customers
• Gross and EBITDA margins are low, but Can KIT continue to grow?
are above industry averages • KIT has a clear growth strategy with focus on
• Consistent dividends over the last 5 organic growth, operational improvements,
years and acquisitions
• To minimize supply chain risk, KIT tries • Increasing efficiency and transferring
to limit its spending with any specific manufacturing to lower-cost countries will
supplier, so that it does not exceed 20 per lead to margin expansion
cent of the total revenue from the supplier Is KIT poised to continue to outperform?
• KIT seeks to diversify its sourcing • KIT has consistently delivered higher than
Diversified Portfolio & strategy
estimated EPS over the last 5 years
Supply Chain • KIT has a very diverse portfolio in terms
of industries it services, meaning that if • KIT has had consistent topline growth since
one industry declines, the company is 2015, which is expected to continue past 2023
protected by revenues created in the other • Medical device equipment industry offers
industries interesting opportunity for growth in current
climate
411
Elizabeth DeSouza
447%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQ:XPEL
Rank: 66/104
412
XPEL Overview
XPEL, Inc. is based in San Antonio, Texas and manufactures, LTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
sells, distributes, and installs after-market automotive products
in the U.S. and internationally. 2020 22.0x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 25.0x
20.0x 21.0x 22.0x 23.0x 24.0x 25.0x 26.0x
LTM P/E 23.48x 33.60x Z
EBITDA 3.12M 18.85M
1NTM multiples not available prior to FY 2019 413

XPEL Business Model
3%2% 2% 0%
• Paint and surface XPEL products help customers keep 6% 3%
protection films(mostly items in excellent condition

14% 47%
Auto Parts used on automotive) • XPEL automotive films protect a
24%
& • Architectural window car’s paint from rock chips and
Equipment films other road debris U.S. China
• DesignAccess Program • Window films (automotive & Canada Continental Europe
U.K. Asia Pacific
software (DAP) architectural) reject solar Latin America Middle East/Africa
radiation and heat or secure glass Other
in the event of breakage Sales by Category

• DAP is XPEL’s proprietary software 6%
5% 0% 3%
2.5%
/ database that allows users to cut
8.8%
XPEL films to the necessary shapes
74.9%
• Primarily operate by selling films,
installation training, and DAP to
independent installers and new Paint protection film Widow film
car dealerships Software Cutbank credits
Installation labor Training
• International market with about
50% of sales coming from outside
Car being wrapped in XPEL film
the U.S. (~25% from sales to XPEL is a capital light business as manufacturing
distributor in China) is outsourced
414
Low Threat
Medium Threat
XPEL Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Auto Components
• DAP, a proprietary • Increase in use of

• XPEL is reliant on one
software that has a ride sharing
The players in this industry distributor for all business
database of over 80,000 services and
manufacture parts and accessories for in China, which makes up a
vehicle applications for autonomous
automobiles. • PPF are commoditized, quarter of their total
their paint protection films vehicles have
meaning there is not revenue
• DAP was the first software changed
substantial differentiation • Should relations between
of its kind and allowed PPF consumer habits
between brands China and U.S. worsen, and
installers to cut films with in the industry
• Brand loyalty and China imposes harsher
Market Perfect precision, thus increasing and will continue
marketing are the only regulations on U.S. goods,
Structure Competition their efficiency to do so
real obstacles to entry XPEL business could be
• Offers instillation training, significantly impacted • Somewhat niche
Market Size $116B1 (Customers are likely to
which is very labor industry so the
ask for a product by name • DAP software, what used to
Industry intensive and specialized players and
LSD2 i.e. Expel, 3M) be an XPEL advantage, is
Growth • Has a brand following, so consumers in the
being replicated and
their products are space are
improved by competitors
requested, even if a better relatively
product exists consistent
2Industry
415
growth over the last 5 years
• Increasing competition in the years leading up to 2015
• XPEL’s initial customer base of car
created uncertainty about whether or not XPEL could
enthusiasts supported the XPEL brand
remain competitive and through word of mouth has
• Gross margins fell every year from 2011 to 2015, falling in expanded the reach of the company
total almost 12% to 29.7% • In a market where brand rarely means
• This drop in gross margins could point to the new competition Brand Loyalty anything, PPF installers will have
undercutting XPEL prices, causing XPEL to drop their own customers ask for XPEL by name
• 3M, a competitor, filed a lawsuit against XPEL in late 2015 for • Strong customer base and brand loyalty
patent infringement caused by the Ultimate film, a best seller have helped grow XPEL revenue
significantly over the past 5 years
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results • Gross margins have steadily increased

since 2017 (up to 36.3% today)
• Increase in gross margins can be
attributed to lower percentage of sales to
lower margin distributors and
Competitive
improvements on product and operating
Drive costs
• XPEL and 3M reached a settlement
wherein XPEL would license the disputed
technology, allowing them to keep a very
successful product
416
Back to List
XPEL Takeaways
XPEL is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
Can XPEL Sustain its Advantages?
• XPEL is a name brand in its niche industry • No, despite having patents related to the DAP
software, competitors are coming out with similar
• Customers of XPEL ask for it specifically, and improved software
which incentivizes installers to use it over
competitors’ films • Llumar (subsidiary of Eastman) has invested in 3D
scanning technology that produces ultra precise
XPEL has a Strong • The main type of XPEL customer appears to film patterns
Following have disposable income, regardless of the
economic climate Can XPEL continue to grow?
• Following will only grow with strategic • XPEL has customers it has yet to reach- people who
partnerships, such as one beginning in 2020 are unaware that they are in need of XPEL products
with Team Penske • These untapped customers offer the opportunity for
XPEL to continue to grow
• XPEL plans to continue strategically acquiring
companies to bring it closer to the end consumer and
• XPEL has strong top line growth
thus increase sales
• The CEO is very committed to the success of
Is XPEL poised to continue to outperform?
the company and offers strong leadership
• Both gross margins and EBITDA margins have steadily
• Plan for global expansion centered on
Strategic Planning increased over the last 5 years, showing improving
establishing local relationships to control
financial health of the company
quality of service and increase margins
• EV/EBITDA multiple is expected to be 21.8x in the
• Variety of distribution channels to maximize
NTM, up from 15.2x in 2020, capturing the continued
sales
expected growth of the company
417
Owen Stimpson
443%
5 Year TSR
LSE:JD.
Rank: 67/104
418
JD Sports Fashion Overview
EV / NTM EBITDA
JD Sports Fashion is a sports-fashion retail company based in
Bury, Greater Manchester, England with shops throughout the
United Kingdom, Europe, the United States, Asia and Australia. 2019
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Market Cap £1.29B £6.31B

0x 2x 4x 6x 8x 10x 12x 14x
Enterprise Value £1.22B £8.51B
PE 15.89x 33.62x
Revenue 1.52B 4.72B
419
JD Sports Fashion Business Model
Retail stores that sell 23%
sports and sport fashion JD is a sports and outdoor fitness
clothing from third-party clothing retailer.
3%
brands and JD’s own
Sports collection of brands. • JD operates 15 different retail store
Fashion Multiple different retail brands with over 2,400 locations 74%
stores, flagship store is across Europe, Asia, and NA.
JD Sports. Also includes Retail Wholesale Multichannel
sports fashion e- • JD’s flagship JD Sports sells renowned
commerce presence. brands, such as Nike and Adidas, Sales by Geography
alongside JD’s own brands.
5%
Retail stores that sell • Stores have “world class” retail
outdoor (i.e. hiking) theatre – the store themselves 26%
clothing from third-party are very stylish. 43%
brands and JD’s own
collection of brands. • JD has developed a robust online
Outdoor 26%
Multiple different retail presence which accounts for roughly
stores, flagship store is 23% of total revenue.
Millets. Also includes • Sites operate under brands of US EU UK Rest
outdoor fashion e- retail stores.
commerce presence.
JD is a high capital intensity business.
420
Low Threat
Medium Threat
JD Sports Fashion Competitive Analysis High Threat

Sporting and • Ecommerce

Oligopoly /
Outdoor Equipment Market
Monopolistic • Capital intensive to • Brand undercuts brick
Structure purchase initial reputation and
Retailers in the UK Competition
clout: people
and mortar
inventory, establish business.
industry Market Size ≈£10B1 retail location etc. know JD and its
• COVID-19 drags • Ecommerce has
Operators in the Sporting and Industry • Ecommerce stores and that’s
MSD1 on for years continued to rise in
Outdoor Equipment Retailers Growth competitors where they go
harming brick- popularity.
industry sell products geared can circumvent when they need
• JD sports also operates outside and-mortar.
towards outdoor activities, these barriers, sportswear.
of the UK in NA, Asia, and • Customers buy
including clothing, bicycles, however. • Scale enables • Customers are
Australia. direct from
sporting goods, and camping cost synergies. buying less volume
• JD sports is one of the largest Nike/Adidas
and fishing equipment. • Store but higher quality.
players in the UK market. • Relationships with and/or
• Key competitors include: major brands (i.e. experience: JD
outcompeted
Frasers Group (Sports Direct), Nike) to carry their has a leading • Athleisure trend has
digitally by
Hadfords, and Decathlon UK. brands. “retail theatre” increased in
Amazon.
• Also many local players making their popularity.
and ecommerce • SportsDirect
stores a better
competitors (i.e. • Very easy to start new becomes more
experience than
Amazon). store – especially premium and
many local
online. competes more
competitors.
directly with JD.
1. UK only; IBIS World.
421
• Retail trends hit retailers at low-end of the
market with minimal store experience.
• Not a very attractive industry: retail industry is in a long-term
decline and there is no reason to think JD is immune from these • JD catered to high-end part of the
trends. market and has top-tier store
experiences through its “retail
• JD’s plans for international expansion are doomed for failure: what theatre” elements such as live DJs,
competitive advantage does JD have in Asia or other markets? JD capitalized on dancers, technology, etc.
industry trends • JD capitalized on athleisure trend and
• Mature industry with minimal room for growth. heightened demand for sneakers.
• JD is self proclaimed “King of
Trainers.”
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results • JD built out ecommerce business which
grew from ≈ 9.9% of sales to ≈23% of sales
• JD expanded to Asia, the US, Australia, and
across Europe from FY2016 to FY2020.
International • Used acquisitions, such as Finish Line
expansion a success acquisition in 2018, to expand.
• JD sports international store count increased
from 104 in FY2016 to 379 in FY2020.
• In addition to store count, JD grew comps each
year from FY2016 to FY2019; average comps
JD grew comps
growth of 7.8% over five-year period and
10% in FY2020.
1. https://www.miniaturemarket.com/reviewcorner/the-games-workshop-renaissance-editorial/
422
Back to List
JD Sports Fashion Takeaways

JD is a Good Business- 3.5/5 Future Outlook
• While the industry faced widespread decline due to Can JD Sustain its Market Position?
the rise of ecommerce, JD continued to thrive. • So far JD has mitigated the threat of Amazon and
• Many key competitors did not thrive (i..e other ecommerce players, and the threat that Nike
Sports direct who’s share price is ≈25% of its and other brands go DTC.
2015 value.) • But COVID-19 threatens to fuel these threats
JD navigated the apparel
• JD invested in their stores to ensure they remained a again.
retail industry
unique experience for customers (that they can’t get • JD may be able to open its store and leverage its
online). ecommerce presence to mitigate COVID-19, but the
• JD capitalized on athleisure and sneakers trend, and future is uncertain.
consumers increasing desire for premium products. Can JD continue to grow faster than the industry?
• Also built out robust ecommerce presence. • If JD can re-open its stores, leverage ecommerce, and
• JD grew its international store count and expanded to continue to stay on top of trends, it will outperform.
the US, across Europe, and into Asia and Australia. • Whether JD can do these three tasks successfully is
• Expanded through both acquisitions and highly uncertain.
JD grew organically. Is JD poised to continue to outperform the market?
• International revenue grew from 413M to 3.5B • JD has mitigated persistent threats of ecommerce and
from FY2016 to FY2020. capitalized effectively on industry trends.
• Comps grew each year at an average 7.5% each year. • And outperformed as its peers continued to
• COVID-19 could be an existential threat to JD’s brick and decline.
mortar stores, but, at the least, it is likely to accelerate • The market is pricing JD for uncertainty given COVID-19’s
trends towards ecommerce. potential impact on retail.
JD has an uncertain future • If JD can weather this crisis effectively, it will
• JD can leverage its ecommerce presence to mute the
damage, but ultimately it could hurt the company's vast outperform. But there is no precedent on which to
retail presence. base whether they will be able to do that.
423
Elizabeth DeSouza
441%
5 Year TSR
OM:IVSO
Rank: 68/104
424
Invisio AB Overview
Invisio AB, based in Copenhagen, develops and sells personal
communication and hearing protection systems for
professionals in the defense and military, law enforcement, and
security sectors internationally. 2020 31.0x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 16.8x
Stock Price 27.7 SEK 138 SEK
0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x
Market Cap 1.17B SEK 6.09B SEK
Enterprise Value 1.15B SEK 5.91B SEK
NTM P/E 19.29x 44.64x Z
Revenue 229.8M SEK 513.8M SEK
425
Invisio Business Model
IVSO protects key personnel in
• IVSO products include critical environments and aids
Sales by Geography1
cables, control units, clear communication
2.8% 6.3%
head sets, and intercom • IVSO personal equipment
Personal
systems reduces noise and enables
Equipment
• The two main solutions disruption free
are personal equipment 21.2%
communication in noisy
and the intercom system environments, while also
protecting the wearer’s 69.7%
hearing
• Intercom solution for Sweden Europe
internal communication in North America Rest of the World
vehicles, boats, and
helicopters
• Two major customers:
military & defense and law
enforcement & security
Invisio creates communication headsets like the one • Make sales mainly through IVSO is a capital light business, as all product
shown above long term contracts manufacturing is outsourced.
1Sales by category not shown because IVSO business “consists of only one segment” 426
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Invisio Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
Aerospace & Defense Barriers To Entry Competitive Advantages Risks
in the Industry
The players in this industry focus on • Multi-year contracts with

customers allow IVSO time • A limited number of
the production, sale, and service of • Significant investment in customers account for a
commercial aircrafts, and military to develop deeper
R&D needed in this space large portion of IVSO
weapons and systems designed for to relationships and
• Some very large revenues- 2 customers
operate on land, seas, and air. understanding to further • Global increase of
companies in the industry, account for ~55% of sales
grow the business 3.6% in defense
but new companies still • IVSO serves a very niche
• IVSO’s small, advanced spending,
have room to enter purpose that depends on
Market communication headset totalling $1.97T
Oligopoly • IP, reputation, and long being the best available
Structure with unique integration in 2019
term relationships are product for military and law
offers an advantage over • Trend of
Market Size $1.6T1 very important in this enforcement personnel
typical communication implementing
Industry industry headsets • Recent efforts in the U.S.
LSD1 more modern
Growth • Customers and providers and internationally to
• Flexible solutions at a good systems, like
enter into medium term “defund the police” could
price point those offered by
contracts, preventing negatively impact defense
The market for “personal equipment” • Very good relationship IVSO
for military services and law competition from spending (but IVSO should
with the U.S. Department
enforcement is estimated by IVSO to be suddenly taking market be protected for the next
of Defense- renewed
6.5B SEK & they estimate their total share couple years by its
contract in 2019 for 290M
target market to be about 13.5B SEK contracts)
SEK
1Market valueestimate by 2025 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200611005398/en/1.6-Trillion-Aerospace-Defence- 427

Market-Assessment-2019-2025
• Prior to 2013, IVSO dabbled in the consumer and professional
• IVSO has developed a very successful
spaces, but an order from the U.S. government shifted their
relationship with the U.S.
entire focus to equipment for professionals (police, military,
• IVSO now supplies products to all
etc.) branches of the U.S. military
• Future growth for the company would depend heavily on the success Global Market • Has also had success in Europe- won
of this relationship with the U.S. Penetration contracts with the Belgian army,
• If the products were received well, other countries would follow with German police, and began talks with
orders, but if they were not that would put a halt to IVSO growth the Swedish police in 2019
• Investors wanted to see how this relationship would develop in the • Breakthrough order with the Japanese
long run- all of IVSO’s eggs were in one basket at this point, so to police in 2019
speak
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results • Countries are increasing defense
spending and looking to modernize the
technology their personnel use
• Structural growth in the number of
Growing possible users of IVSO products
Demand for
• Growing concern for the effects of war
IVSO on soldiers and how to best protect them
Products
• Hearing loss and tinnitus are the most
common injuries among American
veterans
EBITDA • IVSO products prevent these injuries
428
Back to List
Invisio Takeaways
IVSO is a Great Business – 5/5 Future Outlook
• The initial opportunity with the U.S. Can IVSO Sustain its Advantages?
government in 2013 catapulted IVSO • IVSO has a very good reputation and strong
IVSO has Solid • By having a successful relationship with the relationships with its customers
Relationships U.S. military (the best military in the world), • This, coupled with a great product that has
other countries have been influenced to work taken lots of R&D, will be hard for
with IVSO competitors to beat
• The market is growing structurally • Has some patent protected technology
• In 2018 tinnitus and hearing loss together Can IVSO continue to grow?
accounted for about 13 percent of American • IVSO has many possible customers it has yet to
Growing Niche Market veterans’ received compensation, making IVSO reach in existing geographies (police
with High Entry products all the more desirable from a fiscal departments and private security) and ones it
Barriers perspective has yet to reach
• High barriers to entry and the specificity of the • Continuing to develop new products to grow
market prevent serious competition sales
• Continuing to work on operating efficiency to get
• IVSO’s average annual growth from 2015-2019 better margins
was 20.6% and entirely organic Is IVSO poised to continue to outperform?
• Sales growth in 2019 was 45% • IVSO has established itself as a leader in its field
Strong Financial and has cultivated long lasting relationship that
• Gross margins averaged 56% from 2015-2019
Profile pave the way for future growth
and 61% in 2019
• IVSO has no debt and an equity/asset ratio of • Strong financial health and room for growth make
76% it likely that IVSO will have continued success
429
Owen Stimpson
441%
TSX:KXS 5 Year TSR
Rank: 69/104
430
Kinaxis Overview In Canadian Dollars
EV / NTM EBITDA
Kinaxis is a supply chain management, and sales and operation
planning software company based in Ottawa, Ontario.
2019
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Stock Price $31.39 $178.32

0x 10x 20x 30x 40x 50x 60x 70x
PE 44.25x 103.12x
EBITDA 34.0M 54.3M
431
Kinaxis Business Model
Supply Software for companies KXS is a supply chain management

Chain that helps them optimize software company.
SaaS their supply chains.
Sales by Geography
• KXS helps companies optimize all
2%
layers of their supply chain: 10%
• Sales and operations.
• Capacity and manufacturing.
• Demand planning and order 22%
fulfilment.
66%
• Inventory management.
• Etc.
US EU Asia Canada
• KXS software helps companies
reduce inventory, lead times, and KXS is a low capital intensity business.
shorten planning cycles.
• Software used by companies in a

variety of industries from aerospace
Sample KXS software screenshots to retail to life sciences.
432
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Kinaxis Competitive Analysis High Threat

• Switching costs:
• Need to develop a
customers’
wide breadth of
Supply Chain Market operations are • Supply chains
Oligopoly features to have a
Management Structure embedded with
competitive product. have gotten more
software. • New competitor
Software Market Size ≈10.5B1 • Easier to do or existing player
complex and
• KXS has globalized.
Industry with customer makes major
> 10%1 >100%
Growth feedback. investment to • And
Participants develop and sell net disrupted
capture market
software for companies to retention
• KXS is a leader in the industry share (i.e. due to
manage and optimize all • Need to attract high rate.
according to Gartner’s magic Oracle). increased
aspects of their supply chains. quadrant. levels of human
tariffs and
capital.
• Contracts are other
• Major competitors in leaders • Data breach.
long-term. issues (i.e.
quadrant include: SAP, Oracle, • Start-up costs. Brexit).
Gain Systems, Demand • However, lots • KXS cannot
Solutions, and OM Partners. • Customer
of venture innovate fast
feedback and • Increased reliance
capital money enough.
• Industry is maturing and new relationships. on cloud and data
and well analytics.
players are vying to capture
capitalized
different parts of the market. • Breadth of
incumbents.
features.
1. 2022 estimated size; KXS investor presentation.

433
• Subscription revenues grew from 65M in
• KXS is not suited for growth: BMO analyst estimates it takes KXS FY2015 to 118.9M in FY2019.
18 months to procure a new customer. 1 • Expanded into less competitive
international markets and captured
• Insiders selling: the CEO, directors, and other insiders sold millions market share:
of shares in 2015. • International revenue grew from
15.4M in FY2015 to 66M in FY2019.
• KXS is already highly valued and, as growth rates slow, its premium KXS grew
• Knowledge services program launched in
multiple will contract and be more in line with peers.
2015 which helps educate potential
customers on software capabilities.
• Robust partner program with partners
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results including Accenture, Deloitte, and Genpact.
• Continuous investment in product enables
net revenue retention above 100%.
Insider selling • Same CEO as 2015; stock continued to
immaterial perform post insider selling.
• KXS maintained above industry standard
valuation multiples.
• NTM EBITDA multiple grew to 60x from 24x
KXS multiples grew
in and revenue multiple grew to 15x from
5.8x.
• Multiples grew in tandem with growth.
1. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/kinaxis-stock-soars-as-sales-gain-traction/article23206645/?ts=150419233633&ord=1
434
Back to List
Kinaxis Takeaways
KXS is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
• Supply chains are becoming more complex and Can KXS Sustain its Market Position?
globalized, and geopolitical events, such as Brexit and • Barriers to entry are not high, but KXS has developed
the China trade war, have increased the complexity. an industry leading product.
• Demand for SaaS products to optimize supply chains • Consistently recognized by Gardner as a
has undergirded the 24% annual growth for supply “leader” in the industry.
KXS built a great product chain management software.
in a fast growing industry • KXS has a track record of maintaining customer base
• KXS tapped into this growth by building a top-tier and has a >100% net revenue retention rate.
product that is used by top brands, such as Toyota Can KXS continue to grow faster than the industry?
and Unilever.
• If KXS can continue to leverage its partnerships and grow
• Quality of product underscored by >100% net internationally, they will continue to outperform the
revenue retention. industry.
• KXS grew revenue from 121M in FY2015 to 256M in • KXS’s growth is threatened by incumbents, such as Oracle
FY2019. and Microsoft, making major investments to capture
• Revenue is recurring and there is 80% visibility growth.
into NTM revenue. • And new entrants that target specific niches (i.e.
KXS grew specific industries).
• Long-term 2 to 5 year contracts.
• Strong international growth and partnerships with key Is KXS poised to continue to outperform the market?
technology consulting firms, such as Accenture, drove • KXS has a great business: strong product, recurring
consistent growth. revenue, high margins, strong growth runway.
• But KXS’s moat is not very strong and there is a threat of
• The industry continues to grow rapidly and with low new competitors or incumbents investing more in the
KXS has a runway for incremental costs, strong recurring revenue, and strong space.
growth revenue retention KXS could benefit by continuing to • At 15x NTM sales, KXS is very highly valued and if may
capture market share and grow. suffer multiple contraction if they have any issues.
435
Elizabeth DeSouza
434%
5 Year TSR
AIM:RWS
Rank: 70/104
436
RWS Holdings Overview
RWS Holdings plc, headquartered in the United Kingdom,
provides intellectual property support services, such as patent
translations and international patent filing solutions, in life
sciences translations and linguistic validation. 2020 22.8x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 3.0x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x
NTM P/E 17.11x 30.26x Z
Revenue £95.2M £355.7M
437
RWS Holdings Business Model
Sales by Geography
• IP services RWS combines technology and 2.5%
34.8%
• Life sciences language skilled staff to deliver services to
Business 39.0%
services businesses globally
Services
• Moravia
• Language solutions • Sales are made B2B 23.7%
• IP services include patent UK Coninental Europe
translations, patent filing, and U.S. Rest of World
research
• Life sciences language services
Sales by Category
include translations, linguistic 4.2%
validation, documentation, and 35.2%
marketing 18.4%
• Moravia helps global

technology companies provide 42.1%
localized products IP Services
Moravia
• Language solutions cover Life Sciences
translation and interpretation Language Solutions
services to help business
communicate globally RWS is a capital light business.
438
Low Threat
Medium Threat
RWS Holdings Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed in the

Industry
Research & Consulting
Services
• Growing demand for

The players in this industry offer • Services use translation language services
professional services, such as research
memory technology, which • Ability to recruit and driven by globalization
and consulting, to businesses.
gives RWS a competitive retain high quality and international trade
• There are no material edge employees is essential to • Growing number of
barriers to entry in
• High quality employees RWS, but competition for patents filed worldwide
this industry
creating excellent service this is high in key cities • Outsourced language
• Employees need like London
Market Perfect • Specialization in services has had
knowledge of the
Structure Competition translation work for • If changes in European unbroken growth since
industry and command
intellectual property and patent laws occur, this 2009 (CAGR 7.8%)
Market Size $1.3B1 of technology for
life sciences, which is work could effect RWS sales • Global healthcare
efficient services
Industry that is highly valued by while their clients decide spending projected to
MSD2
Growth major global brans new best practices increase at an annual
rate of 5.4% for the next
3 years
1https://my-ibisworld-com.ezproxy.cul.columbia.edu/us/en/industry-specialized/od4753/industry-at-a-glance
2https://jsginc.com/2019/08/professional-services-industry-trends-2019-and-beyond/
439
• In 2015, RWS was still trying to establish itself
internationally • In 2015, RWS decided to focus
• Did not yet have a strong position in the U.S., but growth efforts on the United States
realized its biggest growth opportunity • Transformational acquisition of
• Acquired Corporate Translations Inc. for $70 million, Moravia in 2017 made RWS a
which was financed in part by a $45 million five-year leading provider of technology-
bank loan enabled localization services
• Investors unsure if RWS would be able to grow • RWS revenue grew 87% in 2018,
internationally Successful which is largely attributed to the
International Moravia acquisition
Consensus vs Results Growth • RWS is also the world leader in
Return Breakdown:
translation, IP support solutions
and life sciences language services
• After successful growth in the U.S.,
RWS is planning to focus on growth
in China
• 7% organic growth across the
company for FY 2019
440
Back to List
RWS Holdings Takeaways
RWS is a Great Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
Can RWS Sustain its Advantages?
• RWS offers specialized linguistic services that • RWS has long standing relationships
are needed by almost all businesses with major companies
• Services like those offered by RWS require • RWS tries to create a positive corporate
RWS has a Niche niche expertise of industries, languages, and climate to retain its employees
Product Portfolio business • Competitors lack the size and reach of
• More advantageous for customers to use RWS RWS
than try to do the same services in house
Can RWS continue to grow?
• Globalization will help drive RWS success
• RWS successfully grew in the United
States, and it has now set China as its next
• RWS has grown through acquisitions and geographic target for growth
expanding its services and is now the world • Proven ability to achieve organic and
leader in language translation services inorganic growth
• Low barriers to entry, but RWS’s size and Is RWS poised to continue to outperform?
reputation should protect it from competition
Strong Growth • RWS leads the industry with its high quality
• Consistent topline growth over the last 5 years services and still has room to grow, making
Performance
• Strong gross profit and EBITDA margins of it plausible that RWS will continue to
40.1% and 22.6% respectively for FY 2019 outperform
• Margins have stayed flat despite revenue • RWS also trades above its EV/EBITDA
growth, perhaps indication a lack of scalability multiple, perhaps indicating it is currently
• Strong balance sheet and minimal debt overpriced
441
Owen Stimpson
431%
5 Year TSR
NasdaqGS:ERI
Rank: 71/104
442
Eldorado Resorts Overview
EV/ NTM EBITDA Multiple
Eldorado Resorts is an American hotel and casino entertainment
company founded and based in Reno, Nevada that operates 23
properties across 11 U.S. states. 2019
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0.00x 2.00x 4.00x 6.00x 8.00x 10.00x 12.00x
Enterprise Value $1.05B $6.51B
PE 56.41x 34.19x
443
Eldorado Resorts Business Model
Sales by Division
ERI is a regional casino
Casinos that contain a
operator.
variety of other amenities,
Casino 28%
such as hotel rooms,
Resorts • ERI generates the majority of
restaurants, and retail
its revenue through gambling
shops.
at its casinos.
72%
• ERI offers a variety of other

amenities, such as hotel Gaming Non-Gaming
rooms, restaurants, retail
shops, and sportsbooks to Sales by Geography
attract customer to 26%
properties so they will 24%
gamble.
19%
• ERI focuses on regional
casinos outside of major 33%
hubs that attract visitors 23%
from all over, like Las Vegas.
• Focus on operating West Midwest South East Central
casinos that are a
High capital required for operating casinos, hotels and
Eldorado’s Reno, Nevada Resort “drive away.” restaurants.
444
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Eldorado Resorts Competitive Analysis High Threat
Barriers To Competitive What’s Changed in

Competitive Landscape Risks
Entry Advantages the Industry
• Regulations:
Oligopoly / • Regulatory
Market • Scale can enable
Monopolistic burdens are
Structure operational • Industry has gotten
Competition eased making
Casino Hotel Market Size 66.8B1
expenses to be
destination
more consolidated as
• Generally spread across two largest operators,
Industry locations, like Caesars and MGM,
Industry capital- multiple casinos.
LSD1 Las Vegas less made major
This industry is made up of Growth intensive • Loyalty attractive. acquisitions.
establishments that primarily business programs, such
• In the US, four largest (gambling • Regulations
provide short-term lodging in as Caesars
hotel facilities with a casino on companies hold 30% market machines, increased
Rewards, can • Regulations have
the premises. share (ERI in a tier just buildings, etc.). lowering
entice repeat eased in certain states
below in terms of size). gambling
customers. and increased
• Competition is high: revenue.
• Regulatory • Better amenities competition.
• Casinos are • Cyclical industry.
barriers in can attract more • More
concentrated in hubs • Online gambling /
most customers to the international
like Las Vegas. other forms of
jurisdictions. premise – which competition (i.e.
• Casinos often increases entertainment Macau) too.
compete on continues to become
gambling
amenities and deal more popular and
revenue.
packages. cannibalizes
revenue.
1. Only USA; IBIS World

445
• Weakness at existing properties even in strong overall gaming • As industry focused on major hubs like Las
market: Reno revenue down 5.8% YoY and Silver Legacy JV Vegas, ERI cornered regional markets
revenue down 9.8 YoY. particularly Reno.
• Yet, ERI still trades at only a slight discount to larger peers Bet on Reno and • Reno economy has boomed (major Tesla
which have properties in bigger markets, more diversified regional casinos factory, #1 in US for job growth) which has
portfolios, and nationwide loyalty programs. worked increased demand for Reno casinos.
• Given poor recent of ERI casinos performance, skepticism that ERI • Western segment (encompasses
management can make improvements to the newly integrated MTR Reno) grew revenue by 310% from
Casinos.
FY2015 to FY2019.
• Management said that gambling revenue at the WV location may
decrease by 17% due to an indoor smoking ban in WV.1 • Carano family has a long history in the
• ERI shares are already trading too high because of refinancing business and continues to be very involved.2
hopes. • Management outlined cost cutting /
Return Breakdown: synergies targets multiple times and met
Consensus vs Results them each time.
Strong management
• EBITDA margin increased by nearly 50%
over 5 years from in17.8% in FY2015 to
26.5% in FY2019.
• Increased purchasing power and
lower marketing expenses.
• The smoking ban did likely reduce revenue
Smoking ban wasn’t
at the WV casinos by 5.6% but this loss was
the end of the world
made up for by the success of other casinos.
Debt refinancing was • Annual interest expense was cut from $80M to
material $45M.
1. https://archive.triblive.com/news/presque-isle-downs-mountaineer-adapt-in-battle-over-smoking-rules/#axzz3YWlJPv7s
2. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4100713-eldorado-resorts-among-best-of-breed-in-regional-gaming-is-well-positioned-for-growth 446
Back to List
Eldorado Resorts Takeaways

ERI is a Ok Business - 3/5 Future Outlook
• ERI made the right call and doubled down on Reno and Can ERI Sustain its Market Position?
the regional casino industry: • ERI’s current regional casino property portfolio have
• Owns ≈30% of all Reno hotel rooms. demonstrated robust demand.
• Reno’s economy and population growing quickly; • ERI’s management have proven to be strong operators.
only a few hours drive away from SF/ • But, with the pending Caesars acquisition, leverage could
Sacramento. go as high as 8x EBITDAR adding risk.
ERI made the right bet • ≈50% of revenue in Reno is from actual gambling • Also, shifts ERI regional casino focus to Vegas.
on itself and the (highest margin) ; ≈34% of Vegas revenue from Can ERI continue to grow faster than the industry?
regional casino space gambling.
• Difficult to continue to grow after Caesars acquisition given
• Revenue grew from $127M to $483M, and their size.
margins increased.
• Las Vegas has faced more competition internationally • Caesars reward program could create more recurring revenue
(i.e. Macau) whereas regional casinos have not – they are and regular gamblers (program is known as the best in the
different experiences, Vegas is a holiday, regional casinos industry).
are weekend getaways.
• Management has increased EBITDA margins.
ERI management Is ERI poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Management has exceeded synergies targets in multiple • ERI shares trade at ≈50% of their 2020 peak, and if the
proven they are
capable major acquisitions (i.e. Circus Circus, Isle of Capri, Grand company can whether the coronavirus could outperform if
Victoria). bought as these levels.
• ERI has staked its future on the acquisition of Caesars where • Future very uncertain: whether Caesars acquisition will go
Future lies n the through (pending legal uncertainty), coronavirus impacts,
they plan to realize 500M in annual synergies, become the
pending Caesars post-acquisition leverage, whether synergies will be realized,
largest gambling asset company, and leverage Caesars
acquisition etc.
rewards program.
447
Max Schieferdecker
430%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQGS:FOXF
Rank: 72/104
448
Fox Factory Overview
Fox Factory Holding Corporation is a designer, engineer,
manufacturer, and marketer of premium performance shock NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
absorbers and race suspension products for a variety of
“extreme” vehicle uses, and is based out of Braselton, GA. 2020 27.7x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 10.3x
Market Cap $618.12M $3.38B 0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
NTM P/E 16.87x 42.23x Z
Revenue 366.80M 751.02M
EBITDA 56.41M 128.68M
449
Fox Factory Business Model
FOXF helps improve
• Performance enhancing performance
Powered
products for vehicles
Vehicles • Vehicles that Fox caters to 60.1%
with motors 39.9%
include Side-by-Sides, on-
road vehicles with and
• Performance enhancing without off-road capabilities,
Specialty
products for mountain off-road vehicles and trucks, Powered Vehicles Specialty Sports
Sports
and road bikes ATVs, snowmobiles, specialty
vehicles and applications, Sales by Geography
motorcycles, and commercial
1.0%
trucks 16.0%
• Strong marketing presence
due to good relationships 66.9%
with professional athletes 16.1%
and sponsored race teams
• Sells products both directly
North America Asia Europe Rest of the World
to the original equipment
manufacturers (OEMs) as
well as aftermarket through FOXF is a capital intensive business as most
Fox Factory suspension bike forks
dealers and distributors manufacturing is done in house
450
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Fox Factory Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Automotive Suspension

• Global interruptions to
systems of spring, shock absorbers,
trade could harm the supply
struts, control arms, and ball joints
chain as many of FOXF’s
that connect the vehicle to the wheel
• FOXF has established products are manufactured
and subsequently enable relative
motion between the two trademarks that are overseas
perceived as high quality, • A substantial amount of
premium brands • OEMs have taken
FOXF’s marketing success
a lot of market
• No significant barriers to • Strong relationships with comes from partnerships
Market Perfect share away from
entry OEMs who view FOXF with professional athletes,
Structure Competition the aftermarket
products as a way to so if support for Fox is lost
sellers
Market Size $57B1 increase the sales of their from one or many athletes,
premium products business could be harmed
Industry
LSD%1 • High levels of customer
Growth
concentration as the 10
largest customers account
for 45% of sales
1https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/automotive-suspension-market
451
• Fox has acquired 5 businesses that
• Uncertainty surrounding the growth of the bike business, as have helped them expand the
markets that they operate in
Y/Y growth was stagnant the prior year Accretive
• Wide margin of future year estimates because of • In particular, their bike and
Acquisitions
aftermarket businesses have seen
headwinds due to increased competition and importing growth as a result of these
issues acquisitions
• Over the past 5 years, revenue grew

steadily at a CAGR of 15%, while
Consensus vs Results slightly increasing margins
Return Breakdown: Steady Growth • Demand increased as more ordinary
people had the money to spend on
discretionary hobbies towards the
end of the decade
• Fox got the contract to provide the

suspension for the famous Ford
Ford Raptor Raptor truck
Success • Increased brand recognition to
go along with their already
successful partnerships
452
Back to List
Fox Factory Takeaways
FOXF is an Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
• Fox has established itself as a premium brand in the Can FOXF Sustain its Advantages?
auto parts/suspension industry • FOXF’s reputation in the industry is
FOXF has a Great • The quality and performance has resulted in many strong, and its relationship with OEMs
Reputation OEMs using Fox’s products in their high-end products and its Fox athletes are unlikely to be
• Fox is endorsed by many successful racers and tarnished in the future
athletes as well
Can FOXF continue to grow?

• Being in a business that relies heavily on the ability of • FOXF is continuing to make accretive
consumers to make discretionary purchases, the acquisitions and are actively expanding
stability of the growth is uncertain their international presence as well
Operates in a Cyclical
• The industry is not a ground-breaking one, and the only • However, the size of the growth is not
Industry
real chance at industry growth is through a large certain, as the industry Fox operates in is
increase in interest, which is not something that is easy not a high growth one
to facilitate or likely to happen
Is FOXF poised to continue to outperform?
• The Ford Raptor partnership has greatly affected Fox’s
business in a positive way • It is unlikely that FOXF will continue to
• The Raptor is a variation of the most popular grow at the rate it has before, as much of
Great Partnerships truck in America, the F-150, which has resulted in the stock growth can be attributed to
Provide Great Benefits a large increase in units sold to Ford multiple expansion, and FOXF is already
• This partnership has opened the door for more OEM trading a very high P/E for its industry at
contracts in the future as well around 40x
453
Owen Stimpson
427%
5 Year TSR
OM:BEIJ B
Rank: 73/104
454
Beijer Ref Overview In Swedish krona (kr)
Beijer Ref engages in the wholesale of refrigeration products for EV / NTM EBITDA
refrigeration installation contractors, and service and contracting
companies. It markets and sells refrigeration systems,
components for refrigeration systems, and air-conditioning and 2019
heat pumps.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020
2015
Stock Price 57.67 kr 275 kr

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x
PE 17.58x 47.07x
Revenue 8.36B 14.82B
EBITDA 621.7M 1.32B
455
Beijer Ref Business Model
Sales by Segment
BEIJ is the largest refrigeration wholesaler 10%
Commercial Wholesale of
in the world.
and commercial and
Industrial industrial refrigeration
• BEIJ is a B2B wholesaler of refrigeration, 57%
Refrigeration products from a range 33%
air conditioning and heat pumps.
(CIR) of suppliers.
• Sells best known brands and their
own products which they develop. CIR HVAC OEM
Wholesale of HVAC • Products used in food stores,
(heating, ventilation, factories, ice rinks, etc.
Sales by Geography
HVAC and air conditioning)
products from a range • Installation engineers buy products from 16% 12%
of suppliers. BEIJ and then install them for customer (i.e.
food store). 9%
Manufacturing of • Operates under multiple subsidiaries and 4% 24%

refrigeration products creates value by maintaining stock,
under BEIJ’s own distribution, technical support, and 35%
OEM
brands. Focus on customer adaptation.
Nordic Central Europe Southern Europe
environmentally
friendly products. • BEIJ has massive reach with over 1,200 Eastern Europe Africa APAC
suppliers, 100K products, and 60K
customers around the world. BEIJ is a high capital intensity business.
456
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Beijer Ref Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market • Increased
Fragmented
Structure urbanisation has
Refrigeration • Product breadth: need • Global reach. grown demand for
Market Size ≈7B1
Wholesale Industry wide product breadth
• Scale enables refrigerated food.
Industry and relationships with
MSD1 purchasing • Exposure to • Larger middle class
Growth suppliers.
Participants source power. foreign means more homes
• BEIJ is the largest commercial • BEIJ also has can afford to cool
refrigeration products from • Low customer exchange.
and industrial refrigeration exclusive their homes.
suppliers and sell them concentration: 5
wholesale to end customers. wholesaler in the world. distributor
largest • Regulatory changes:
contracts (i.e. • Suppliers
customers ≈ 5% • 2016 Kigali
• Key competitors include: Toshiba in going direct to
of sales. agreement
Ahlsell in Sweden and Europe). customers.
Denmark, Reiss and Fischer in • Customer signed by 90
Germany, Wolseley in the relationships: countries: HFC
• Capital intensive to • Working
United Kingdom and Pecomark 60k customers use to
carry inventory, set capital
in Spain and France. and 80% decrease by
up warehouses, etc. management.
employees have 85% by 2045
• Industry growth generally contact with (HFCs
exceeds GDP growth by 2% due customers. commonly
to growth tailwinds from food used in fridges
industry. today)
1. Ibis World; US only

457
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • BEIJ pursued consistent acquisitions to
grow to new markets. Revenue CAGRs:
• Minimal avenues for growth: BEIJ operates in a mature industry Africa (13.34%), Southern Europe
with minimal growth prospects. (11.70%), Asia Pacific (37.82%).
• Already highly penetrated in core markets – minimal room
to capture market share but possible to lose it. • Regulation changes increased demand for
• Refrigeration industry is a fast-evolving, growing industry. BEIJ grew in new environmentally friendly refrigeration as
• Not particularly attractive business model: high capital intensity, markets and old tech is phased out.
potential to be undercut by suppliers selling direct, minimal value through OEM • Expanded OEM business (which
addition. capitalized on environmentally friendly
• EBITDA and gross margins have decreased for past five years. trend) from one order in 2015 to 180M in
FY2019 (10% of revenue).
• Doubled capacity in FY2019 to
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results continue to capture market share.
• Optimized logistics by moving to regional
warehouse (rather than country based)
warehousing; automated more processes.
• Launched ecommerce site (≈2% of FY2019
BEIJ optimized
sales but growing) and online PIM system for
business model
customers.
• Ensured proper integration of acquisitions
(i.e. 2016 slowed acquisitions to ensure
integration after many 2015 acquisitions).
• Gross margins up to 31.7% from 30.3% and
Margins improved EBITDA margins up to 8.9% from 7.4% due to
operational improvements and OEM sales.
458
Back to List
Beijer Ref Takeaways

BEIJ is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
• Largest refrigeration wholesaler in the world with Can BEIJ Sustain its Market Position?
global reach, diversified customer base, strong • Barriers to entry are not that high as any company
supplier relationships, and efficient logistics with capital can buy refrigeration systems and sell
BEIJ has a moat capabilities. them.
• Has exclusive contracts with some key suppliers (i.e. • But, BEIJ’s competitive advantages are very strong:
Toshiba). large customer base and supplier base, scale which
• BEIJ continued to capitalize on industry fragmentation enables low costs, strong logistics, global reach.
by consistently pursuing acquisitions: 11 acquisitions • Also #1 player in the industry.
since 2015. Can BEIJ continue to grow faster than the industry?
• Acquisitions enabled robust expansion across the • BEIJ can continue to make acquisitions and consolidate a
world, especially in Asia, Africa, and Southern Europe. fragmented market.
BEIJ capitalized on market BEIJ also maintained leading position in core Nordic • OEM business can continue to be a source of growth,
trends and Central Europe markets. especially given its alignment with key industry trends.
• Capitalized on trend towards environmentally friendly Is BEIJ poised to continue to outperform the market?
refrigeration by developing OEM business which
• BEIJ is a strong company in a mature but growing
specializes in this niche.
industry that is benefiting from social and regulatory
• Non-reportable segment in FY2015 to 10% of tailwinds.
FY2019 sales. • BEIJ has avenues for growth including further acquisitions
• Industry trends which increased demand for and the OEM business.
refrigeration (urbanisation, rising middle class, • My concern is that OEM business may eNduce some
BEIJ has a runway for regulatory changes to environmentally friendly tech) suppliers to expand direct sales capabilities (as BEIJ is no
growth likely to continue. longer neutral wholesaler); and new market growth is not
• OEM capacity doubled in 2019 and can continue to grow. always a home run (i.e. BEIJ has challenges in Africa).
• BEIJ PE (47x) is highest ever – by far.
459
Elizabeth DeSouza
426%
5 Year TSR
SWX:BANB
Rank: 74/104
460
Bachem Holding AG Overview
Bachem Holding AG, headquartered in Switzerland, is a
technology-based biochemicals company, that, through its
subsidiaries, provides services to the pharmaceutical and
biotechnology industries. 2020 31.0x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 11.9x
Stock Price 49.95 CHF 224.5 CHF
0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x
Market Cap 675.47M CHF 3.14B CHF
Enterprise Value 667.33M CHF 3.23B CHF
P/E 21.48x 50.21x Z
Revenue 208.6M CHF 313.7M CHF
EBITDA 56.3M CHF 84.5M CHF
461
Bachem Holding AG Business Model
Sales by Geography
• Active Pharmaceutical BANB provides a full range of
19.1% 7.3%
Ingredients (APIs) services to the pharma and
• Custom synthesis biotech industries 5.4%
services • BANB develops efficient 5.6%
• Generics (drug 6.7% 48.4%
manufacturing processes and
substances whose 7.5%
Peptide produces peptide-based
patent protection has active pharmaceutical Switzerland U.S. Germany
Chemistry
expired) ingredients Austria Great Britain Japan
• Research chemicals used Rest of world
to make peptides and • BANB products are used in

advance biochemical research and development,
cosmetics, diagnostics, and Sales by Category
knowledge
• New Chemical Entities medicines
11.8%
• Customers in the field of
research are mainly
universities, institutes, and 88.2%
research departments of
pharma companies APIs Research Chemicals
• BANB is pursuing the largest

number of peptide projects BANB is a capital intensive business.
worldwide
462
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Bachem Holding AG Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed in
the Industry
Life Sciences Tools &
Services
The players in this industry are • Global market leader in • Increase in
involved in drug discovery, peptides and unique in its collaborative
development, and production by • Sophisticated products ability to produce long-chain innovation between
providing analytical tools, and technology requires and complex peptides in large life sciences
instruments, consumables, supplies, significant R&D to quantities for commercial • Industry is subject to companies
and contract research services develop applications rapid scientific
• Increasing research in
change, so BANB
• Strict regulatory • Expertise in peptides, with a new applications for
success depends on
environment large portfolio of peptide generics
continued
Market • Relationships and generics in the industry • New technologies like
Oligopoly innovation
Structure reputation are very • Extensive range of services telemedicine, virtual
• There is no
important and take time with high degree of vertical clinical trials, and AI
Market Size $461.97B1 assurance BANB
to build integration could increase and
products will obtain
Industry • Employees need a high • Long-term customer diversify medical
> 10%2 regulatory approval
Growth level of education and relationships and long-term research
industry knowledge supply contracts regulate • Use of peptides
prices and purchase volumes increasing in
cosmetics
2YTD
463
• BANB had a less sizable market share in 2015 and was
working toward becoming a market leader in peptides • BANB is the global market leader in
• Acquired American Peptide Company in 2015 in hopes peptides
of strengthening its position in the U.S. • BANB has successfully established
• Looking to Japan as a next area for growth itself in Japan, and Asia as a whole
Market Leader now account for just under 10% of
• Recently divested in its immunology product line in
BANB sales
2014
• Able to identify and realize new
• Trying to establish itself as a global player
projects in Japan, South Korea,
China, and Taiwan in FY 2019
Return Breakdown: • Growing NCE pipeline contributing
directly to increasing sales
• Generic sales increased from
110.3M to 137.4M from 2015-2019
Diversified • Expanding from peptides into
oligonucleotides, with a medium
Operations
term goal of establishing this as a
second pillar for BANB
• Demand and interest for
oligonucleotides exceeded company
expectations
464
Back to List
Bachem Holding AG Takeaways
BANB is a Great Business – 4.5/5 Future Outlook
Can BANB Sustain its Advantages?
• BANB has a niche in peptide manufacturing
• BANB has patent protection
• Unique capabilities for peptide
• BANB has extensive knowledge of the industry
development, as well as years of industry
and long term relationships with customers
Peptide Niche experience and expertise
• BANB is an FDA-approved API manufacturer for
• BANB uses its peptide expertise and works
all clinical phases and commercial supply
with its customers to come up with the
perfect solution for their needs Can BANB continue to grow?
• Entrance into oligonucleotide market presents an
exciting opportunity for growth
• Consistent topline growth over the last 5 • Building extension to their largest existing
years production facility to create room for capacity
Strong Financial • Strong gross profit and EBITDA margins of expansion
Profile 29.5% and 26.9% respectively for FY 2019 • Customers operate in a range of industries that
• High and consistently increasing EPS, with BANB has not fully targeted yet
EPS of 3.91CHF in FY 2019
Is BANB poised to continue to outperform?
• BANB has a strong financial profile, opportunities for
• BANB founder Dr. Peter Grogg owns all class A growth
shares through Ingro Finanz AG (50.01% of • Seems likely BANB will continue to outperform,
Majority Ownership share capital), and combined with his family, however they have seen significant multiple
maintains majority ownership of BANB at expansion since June, perhaps limiting them going
61.6% forward
465
Owen Stimpson
424%
5 Year TSR
NasdaqGS:ETSY
Rank: 75/104
466
Etsy Overview
Etsy is an American e-commerce website focused on handmade EV / NTM EBITDA
or vintage items and craft supplies. These items fall under a wide
range of categories, including clothing, home décor, and art. All
2019
vintage items must be at least 20 years old.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Market Cap $1.88B $9.47B

0x 10x 20x 30x 40x 50x 60x 70x
PE NA 55.92x
EBITDA 12.9M 118.2M
467
Etsy Business Model
Marketplace platform
that connects sellers of
Etsy an online marketplace for non-
Etsy crafted and curated
commercial, individually crafted and Sales by Geography
vintage goods with
curated goods.
buyers.
33%
• Etsy is the go-to marketplace for sellers
Marketplace platform for who make their own goods, such as
selling new, used, and pottery or clothing.
Reverb
vintage musical • Etsy is not the platform for mass
Instruments. produced goods such as iPhones. 67%
• Etsy charges a small listing fee, a 5% US Rest

transaction fee when a sale is made, and
charges for other services such as priority
ranking in search results. ETSY is a low capital intensity business.
• Etsy is available in nearly every country;

65 million items listed on the marketplace.
Screenshot of Etsy marketplace.
468
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Etsy Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market • Network effects:

Oligopoly
Structure Etsy’s platforms
Online Retail Market Market Size ≈$249.B1 get better as
• Sellers go DTC and
each new buyer
Industry establish their own
> 10%1 and seller joins
Participants offer online retail Growth ecommerce sites.
• Reverse network the platform.
services either by selling their • Ecommerce has
own products, by creating a • Etsy competes against major effects: difficult to • 2.5M
• Amazon / eBay continued to rise
platform to sell products, or online marketplaces such as establish base of sellers
makes major push in popularity.
both. Amazon and eBay. buyers without and 46M
suppliers, and vice buyers. into industry.
versa. • Or by • Trend towards
• Etsy is the leading player in its • Global reach:
another environmental
niche of unique goods. Etsy is available
new and socially
• Google search result in nearly every
competitor conscious goods.
rankings. country.
• Etsy also competes against such as
brick-and-mortar stores such • Algorithms to
Facebook or
as vintage stores and determine what
Instagram.
independent shops, as well as products buyers
independent ecommerce sites. may be
interested in.
1. 2019 10k.
469
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • New CEO appointed in 2017.
• Etsy is unprofitable and the path to profitability appears it could • ESTY continued to increase its user base
take years and is uncertain. and GMS increased each year from FY2015
• Etsy has been spending lots on advertising to remain to FY2019.
competitive. • ETSY increased it transaction fee from
ETSY became 3.5% to 5% in FY2018;
• Highly competitive industry – Etsy will eventually get crushed by profitable
Amazon and eBay if they capture too much market share. • ETSY reduced advertising costs by
• Amazon has already launched handmade section. charging merchants a fee when ETSY’s ad
led to a sale of their product.
• Etsy is highly valued already at 6x forward revenue. • Forced sellers to offer free shipping on
orders above $35 (or be ranked lower in
search) – at sellers expense.
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results • Amazon’s handmade store did not turn out to
be successful.
• Fees were too expensive, and most
sellers didn’t migrate but rather
ETSY carved out a
opened an Amazon store in addition to
niche
their core Etsy store.
• Esty has grown buyers from 24M in FY2015 to
46M in FY2019, and sellers from 1.6M to
2.5M.
• ETSY increased gross margin from 39.8% to
ETSY justified 60.5%, EBITDA margin from 4.7% to 14.4%,
valuation and grew revenue multiple to 7.76x from
FY2015 to FY2019.
470
Back to List
Etsy Takeaways
Etsy is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
• ETSY is the largest player in the handmade, curated Can ETSY Sustain its Market Position?
ecommerce niche and benefits from network effects. • ETSY’s platform business model gives it a wide moat
• Amazon tried to enter the market but ultimately through network effects.
ETSY has a moat failed to capture share from ETSY. • Amazon has already tried to compete with ETSY and
• ETSY has demonstrated its advantage relative to largely failed – no other competitors more formidable
competitors by exercising its pricing power and than them.
increasing its transaction fees to 5%. • Demonstrated pricing power abilities.
• ETSY continued to invest in marketing to increase its
user base which grew to 2.5M sellers and 46M buyers.
Can ETSY continue to grow faster than the industry?
• ETSY began offloading advertising costs to
sellers by charging them a fee when their ad led • ETSY is more likely to attract new buyers and sellers
to a sale. given their strong user base.
ETSY grew • Room for international growth.
• ETSY increased conversion of website browsers
to buyers. • Handmade goods market is less competitive than other
markets (i.e. electronics).
• Combination of more users, more transactions, and
increased transaction fees enabled ETSY to become Is ETSY poised to continue to outperform the market?
profitable and grow revenue to 818M in FY2019 – a • ETSY has a strong moat and competitive advantages.
31% CAGR from FY2015. • However, ETSY’s multiples prices them for rapid growth –
• As the platform has gained users, its moat is and that might be difficult at this stage in ETSY’s cycle.
strengthened through network effects. • ETSY also has to be careful about growing too fast
ETSY has a runway for • ETSY can leverage this advantage by continuing as it could compromise the integrity of the
growth to raise fees. platform (counterfeit goods, mass produced goods,
• Network effects attract more users, which increases # of etc.)
transactions and will enable ETSY to grow topline.
471
Max Schieferdecker
423%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQGS:BEAT
Rank: 77/104
472
BioTelemetry Overview
BioTelemetry is a leading remote medical technology company NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
focused on delivering critical health information to physicians
and patients and is based out of Malvern, PA. 2020 16.6x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 8.3x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x
NTM P/E 26.38x 55.39x Z
Revenue 170.47M 417.34M
EBITDA 28.07M 107.74M
473
BioTelemetry Business Model
1.4%
BEAT advances connected health 1.4%
• Diagnosis and monitoring
12.4%
BioTel of cardiac arrhythmias or • BEAT’s technology and services
Heart heart related disorders in enable healthcare providers to
a healthcare setting monitor / diagnose patients and
clinical research subjects in a 84.7%
• Cardiac monitoring & more efficient, accurate, and cost-
BioTel imaging services for drug effective manner Heart Research Care Alliance
Research trials in a clinical research • Recurring revenue is generated

environment through their monitoring Sales by Geography
services of their remotely 1.0%
• Remote monitoring and connected devices in their 24-
BioTel analysis of blood glucose hour monitoring service centers
Care for diabetes population
health management
99.0%
• Develops, manufactures
BEAT’s next generation U.S. International
and markets medical
BioTel MCOT patch system
devices to medical
Alliance
companies, clinics and BEAT is a capital light business due to the
hospitals subscription-based business model
474
Low Threat
Medium Threat
BioTelemetry Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Cardiac Monitoring
The players in this industry offer • Reimbursement by

medical devices that record and Medicare is highly regulated
display pressure and electrical
• Significant amounts of • Medicare is BEAT’s
waveforms of the cardiovascular
expertise are required to largest payor, at 35%
system for measurement and
treatment be successful in this of FY19 revenue
industry • Sales, in a large part, rely on
• Largest player in a very
• In order to break in, a new outside physicians to • Medicare
fragmented markets
company would have to go prescribe BEAT’s services reimbursement
Market • Already established with
Oligopoly through the long and • BEAT is in the possession of rates have
Structure many physicians as a high-
strenuous R&D and FDA life-and-death level data, so decreased
quality, reliable device
Market Size $27.4B1 approval process, while at any breach in their security
the same time not could be very harmful for
Industry
HSD1 infringing on existing their customers and their
Growth
patents reputation
• The industry is also highly
regulated by the FDA
1file:///C:/Users/schie/Downloads/ROBOGLOBAL_BIOTELEMETRY_Research-Update.pdf
475
• In 2016, TelCare was acquired with the goal
• Given its small market cap in 2015, there was not a whole lot of expanding into the glucose monitoring
of interest and attention given to BEAT market
Many Key
• There was also a worry that management was focusing • Acquired their second largest competitor in
Acquisitions the market, Lifewatch, in 2017
too much on expanding margins instead of trying to
expand their market reach and grow the top line • Geneva Healthcare was acquired in 2018 to
bring their software/services to the cloud
• In July 2016, BEAT received FDA approval for
their next generation mobile cardiac
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results telemetry (MCT) device in a patch form for
Successful New greater convenience
Product Rollout
• The full launch of the product in Q1
2018 resulted in a 69.1% growth in
revenue over Q1 2017
• In late 2017, BEAT partnered with
Apple and Stanford to provide cardiac
monitoring services in conjunction with
Apple the Apple Heart Study
Partnership
• The goal is to use Apple Watch
data to identify irregular heart
rhythms
476
Back to List
BioTelemetry Takeaways
BEAT is an Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
• As one of the largest established players in an Can BEAT Sustain its Advantages?
industry with notoriously high barriers, it is • So long as there is no big scandal that
BEAT has a Moat promising that BEAT will maintain its market tarnishes their reputation, BEAT should
position into the future be able to sustain its physician
relationships and remain one of the
• Strong operating cash flow growth largest players in the field
• However, margins throughout the past 5 years have
been far from consistent Can BEAT continue to grow?
• Profit was the highest in FY16 at $53.4M, • BEAT has 2 relatively untapped businesses
Weak Financial Profile despite the top-line growing at a CAGR of 28% in its arsenal to expand in the future (Care
from $208M and Alliance) which have a lot of promise
• Also, top-line growth has slowed in FY19, as it was only • The rate of growth is uncertain, however,
10% compared to the much larger growth figures in as top-line growth has slowed greatly, and
previous years COVID is not going to help its cause
• BEAT has the ability and the resources to expand their Is BEAT poised to continue to outperform?
offerings into other fields
• While consensus does project high top-line
• One of the big opportunities that BEAT could
growth rates in the future, BEAT has been
capitalize on is the glucose monitoring for
Large Upside Potential patients with diabetes
drastically underperforming consensus EPS
estimates lately, so it is not safe to be
• With the Geneva platform, BEAT can also gather data
from all cardiac devices from all manufacturers, which hopeful off those numbers, despite
has opened a large outsourcing market opportunity multiples not being at ATHs
477
Owen Stimpson
421%
5 Year TSR
OM:HTRO
Rank: 77/104
478
Hexatronic Overview In Swedish Krona (Kr)
EV / NTM EBITDA
Hexatronic offers system solutions for fiber networks based on
proprietary products, in combination with products from
partners around the world. 2019
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 2x 4x 6x 8x 10x 12x
PE 11.06x 20.24x
EBITDA 63.5M 149.5M
479
Hexatronic Business Model
HTRO offers complete
Sales by Geography
system solutions for HTRO is a fiber network
Fiber Optic
fiber networks using system company.
Communication
their own proprietary
Solutions
products, and products • HTRO helps customers
from other companies. develop fiber network
systems.
• Provides all products

necessary to develop fiber
system, includes HTRO Rest Sweden NA EU
proprietary products and
products from partner
companies. HTRO is a high capital intensity business.
• HTRO provides necessary

training and services for
customers to maintain
network.
HTRO Business Model
480
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Hexatronics Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market Multiple
Structure structures • Reputation:
Global Fiber Optics choice of
Market Size 3.1B1 Regulatory burdens. products /
Industry •
Industry working
> 10%1 • Fast, reliable
Companies in this industry Growth methods makes
• Long-term contracts internet has only
develop and sell products and major impact • Technological
• Different segments of the and relationships become more
services for the creation and and customers change /
industry have different between existing important with
maintenance of fiber optic can trust HTRO obsolescence.
competitive dynamics: players and rise of streaming,
systems. to make these
• Some products segments customers. gaming, etc.
decisions given
are oligopolies, others reputation. • Regulatory change.
are monopolistic • High capital intensity • 5G adoption has
• Relationships
competition, and some business. begun and is
are commodities. with suppliers of
products. anticipated to
• HTRO is a large European grow quickly.
player and has strong • Technologically • HTRO offers a
positioning in its markets. advanced industry. Turnkey fiber
• HTRO seeks to acquire optic network
companies with market solution.
leading positions.
1. Estimated using growth rate; https://www.reportlinker.com/p05798563/Global-Fiber-Optics-Industry.html?utm_source=GNW

481
• HTRO has maintained higher gross
• Skepticism about business changes: HTRO was a distributor then margins as a system provider: gross
became a supplier and now aims to be a complete system provider. margins now ≈45%, up from ≈30%.
• HTRO has won major contracts:
• Skepticism over stated plan to grow revenue at 20% per year and
use acquisitions to do it. • 500M City Fibre contract in UK and
System provider
• High targets and willingness to make acquisitions might change worked 40M German market contract in
entice management to make poor deals. FY2019.
• HTRO has consistently expanded its
• HTRO will not have much success internationally. services: training and education
acquisitions have expanded HTRO training
offerings.
EPS Results • Various acquisitions made to expand into new
Return Breakdown:
markets and improve service offerings.
• Consistent acquisitions but management has
Strong acquisitions
remained disciplined (i.e. no acquisitions
made
outside of core business / at crazy valuations).
• Acquisitions have been accretive: EPS grown
from 1.21 in FY2015 to 1.80 in FY2019.
• Acquisitions have enabled HTRO to grow
outside of Sweden.
• BlueDiamond acquisition successful and
International growth
company is expanding American operations.
• Non-Swedish revenue grown at 54% CAGR
since FY2015 from 226M to 1.3B
482
Back to List
Hexatronic Takeaways
HTRO is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
• HTRO operates in a specialized industry with high Can HTRO Sustain its Market Position?
capital requirements, regulatory burdens, and • HTRO has a moat due to the specialized nature of the
long-term contracts. industry, capital requirements, and long-term contracts.
HTRO has a moat • HTRO has expanded their moat by becoming a • HTRO is a market leader across Europe, especially in
complete system provider – making their services home Swedish market.
paramount to the establishment of their customer’s • HTRO is pivotal to customers fiber system development
fiber networks. as they are involved in the entire process.
• HTRO has expanded into new territories and their Can HTRO continue to grow faster than the industry?
service offerings through strategic acquisitions.
• HTRO has the potential to grow faster than the industry if
• Acquisitions have ultimately been accretive, as it can continue to win major contracts.
evidenced by EPS growth.
HTRO has grown • Home market of Sweden will see least growth due to
effectively • HTRO has won major contracts, such as the 500M City already high fiber to the home penetration – growth will
Fibre Contract in the UK. come from international markets.
• HTRO’s decentralized management model has enabled • Formidable competitors exist in all markets so it is
acquired companies to continue to thrive and capitalize difficult to know who will win market share.
on potential synergies while avoiding corporate bloat.
Is HTRO poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Increasing need for high-speed internet, rise of 5G, and
governments seeing fiber networks as a national • If HTRO can continue to make accretive acquisitions and
competitive advantage will drive future growth. expand successfully into new markets – it will
HTRO has a runway for • Home fiber network penetration is high in Sweden but outperform.
growth remains low in other countries. • But, this is harder and harder as HTRO grows.
• Germany has low penetration and plans to invest • HTRO’s 20x PE multiple is in line with the market which
14-16B to develop fiber networks by 2025. HTRO means growth expectations are roughly in line with the
will seek to win this business. market.
483
Elizabeth DeSouza
419%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQGS:ARWR
Rank: 78/104
484
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. Overview
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc., headquartered in Pasadena, NTM EV/Revenue Multiple

California, develops medicines for the treatment of intractable
diseases by silencing the genes that cause them. 2020 32.5x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2016 287.1x
0.0x 100.0x 200.0x 300.0x 400.0x
EV / NTM Revenue N/A 32.54x
EV / NTM EBITDA N/A N/A
NTM P/E N/A N/A Z
Revenue $400K $168.8M
EBITDA -$81.6M $65.6M
485
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. Business Model
Primary Products Context ARWR’s medicine pipeline shown below1
• RNA interference (RNAi) ARWR develops drugs for

therapies that silence diseases with a genetic basis
the expression of
disease associated genes • ARWR has a portfolio of
Drug • Therapies that reduce RNAi chemistries and modes
Therapies the production of of delivery
specific proteins • ARWR therapies trigger the
• Liver Disease, Cystic RNA interference mechanism
Fibrosis, Hepatitis B and to induce knockdown of
other medicines target genes
• License agreement with
Janssen Pharmaceuticals to
develop and commercialize
ARO-HBV
• Collaboration with Janssen to
develop therapy for chronic
Hepatitis B infection
• Engaged in a license
agreement with Amgen Inc. ARWR is a capital intensive business.
1ARWR is still in the development phase of its medicines and has yet to make sales
486
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. Competitive Analysis High Threat

Advantages Industry
Biotechnology
• The industry is reliant on
The players in this industry engage in investment to fund R&D,
• Intellectual property is
the research, development, but investment has
key in this industry and • There is no assurance
manufacturing and/or marketing of • Patent protected declined due to Covid-19
is often patented that ARWR products will
products based on genetic analysis treatments related economic
• Government regulations obtain regulatory
and genetic engineering. (approximately 383 uncertainty
are strict, and drugs approval
issued patents) • Major industry players
require lengthy and • ARWR faces potential
• Exclusivity benefits from taking part in M&A
costly clinical trials product liability
products with orphan activities
Market before reaching market exposure
Oligopoly drug designation • Patient Protection and
Structure • Long start-up periods • ARWR has a history of
• Products in pipeline Affordable Care Act
with high fixed costs net losses and expects to
Market Size $1.12T1 target tissue types other should benefit players in
and little profit continue to incur losses
than liver, which is a this industry with tax
Industry • Competitive landscape and may not achieve or
> 10%1 significant advancement breaks and simplified
Growth consists of hundreds of maintain profitability
in RNAi regulatory landscape
small companies and a
• Healthcare system under
few industry giants
increasing pressure to
reduce costs
• ARWR has a short development history with RNA • Signed a collaboration deal with
interference and there is a limited amount of information Janssen (Johnson & Johnson
about them upon which to evaluate their business subsidiary) to develop a treatment for
• ARWR was an immature company with products in the chronic Hepatitis B
pipeline that were far from approval • Janssen deal resulted in $250M in
upfront payments and equity
• 6 drug candidates in the pipeline, with 3 coming from Collaboration
investments for ARWR
the acquisition of Novartis (3 of these candidates would Deals
• Amgen Inc. acquired an exclusive
be discontinued in 2016)
license from ARWR in 2016 to
• No sales or anywhere near making sales develop and commercialize ARO-LPA
for $35M in upfront payments and
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results $21.5 M in equity investment in
Amgen
Not meaningful due to revenue
history. • Acquired RNAi research and
development portfolio of Novartis in
2015
• Novartis had been working in the
Increased field for over a decade and had
Capabilities proprietary developments
• This acquisition allowed ARWR
access to patent families and
candidates that were not fully
realized in 2015
488
Back to List
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. Takeaways
ARWR is an Okay Business – 3.5/5 Future Outlook
• ARWR success is dependent on the success of Can ARWR sustain its advantages?
their product pipeline, which depends on • ARWR currently controls 383 patents
regulatory approval and clinical trials • ARWR competition has more resources to
• ARWR has a pipeline for RNAi therapies, but devote to R&D, and some have successfully
Dependent on it has yet to have a product pass phase 3 developed RNAi medicines
Product Pipeline clinical testing
Can ARWR continue to grow?
• By the time ARWR gets a therapy down the
• Successful commercialization of ARWR
pipeline, competitors could develop
therapies would allow ARWR to grow
something better that makes the ARWR
therapy obsolete in a few years • ARWR could leverage knowledge (such as
modes of delivery) from one successful drug to
make more successful drugs
Is ARWR poised to continue to outperform?
• Partnerships with other companies, such as
• Newer tools under development that offer
Janssen, increase ARWR’s likelihood for success
curative potential rather than silencing disease-
by increasing their resources and capabilities
driving genes could limit long-term market
Opportunity for • ARO-ATT, a liver disease therapy, and JNJ-3989, opportunities
Success the Hepatitis B therapy from the Janssen deal,
• Outperformance is very dependent on whether
are in later stages of clinical trials, and if
ARWR can commercialize any of its products in
approved, could cause ARWR share pricing to
the pipeline
soar
• ARO-ATT and JNJ-3989 will be main drivers of
stock price in short term
489
Owen Stimpson
416%
5 Year TSR
XTRA:ILM1
Rank: 79/104
490
Medios AG Overview
Medios AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the EV/LTM Revenue
wholesale of specialty pharmaceutical drugs in Germany. It
operates through Pharmaceutical Supply and Patient-Specific 2020
Therapies segments.
Statistic 12/05/20161 08/08/2020

2015

0.85x 0.90x 0.95x 1.00x 1.05x 1.10x 1.15x
EV / LTM EBITDA NA 39.09x
PE NA 66.07x
EBITDA 7.3M 15.6M
1. Date Medios AG became publicly listed

491
Medios AG Business Model
Sales by Division
Wholesale trade in ILM1 ensures specialty
Pharmaceutical specialty pharmaceutical 10%
pharmacy partners get the 1%
Supply medications that are products they need, and at the
available in Germany. best price.
• ILM1 pools the buying power

89%
of specialty pharmacies to
Pharmaceutical order in bulk from Supply Patient-Specific Manufacturing Other
Patient-Specific production of patient- pharmaceutical
Manufacturing specific preparations on manufacturers. Sales by Geography
behalf of pharmacies.
• ILM1 manufactures patient-
specific treatments for
specialty pharmacies, if
Implementation of required.
analysis methods for the
Drug Safety
identification of • ILM1 seeks to license its
(founded in
counterfeit medicinal proprietary drug testing Germany
2019)
Sample GAW miniatures
products, among other capabilities.
things. ILM1 has medium capital intensity due to the inventory and
capital required for patient-specific manufacturing segment.
492
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Medios AG Competitive Analysis High Threat

German Competitive Landscape Barriers To Entry Risks
Advantages Industry
Specialty
Pharmaceutical Market Monopolistic
Structure Competition • Network effects:
Industry • Many different
regulations that • More pharmacies • Demand has increased:
Industry consists of Market Size €13.5B1
must be adhered increases buying
• New treatments
manufacturers, Industry power.
HSD1 to. were created.
wholesalers, and Growth • More
• GMP • One major • Aging
pharmacies which pharmaceutical
make and sell • The manufacturing portion manufacturing error can demographics.
of the industry is highly certification manufacturers tarnish
specialty • Chronic illness
fragmented with players needed to be increases reputation.
pharmaceuticals. more common.
specializing in specific drugs. make drugs. supplying power.
Specialty
• ILM1 quality testing is • A new law was passed in
pharmaceuticals are a • Scale required • Regulations
• There are roughly 1000 far superior to existing May 2017 prevents
designation of to attain strong are subject to
specialty pharmacies in tech: ILM1 can test in insurance companies
pharmaceuticals that buying power change.
Germany. one minute vs weeks for from covering only
are classified as high- from
cost, high complexity existing technology. certain drugs. This made
• ILM1 serves as a pharmaceutical ILM1’s service more
and/or high touch. manufacturers. • Reputation as a key
consolidator of buying and useful given the range of
• Need highly player in the industry
selling of specialty drugs offered.
trained staff. and strong track-record
pharmaceuticals drugs in
Germany. of safety.
1. https://medios.ag/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2020/06/200612-company-presentation.pdf
493
• ILM1 is the largest player in the wholesale
• The specialty pharmaceutical niche makes up only 1% of the total specialty pharmaceutical segment, which
pharmaceutical market; why invest in a company that only seeks to has entrenched its moat.
address a small portion of the total industry?
• Benefited from network effects that
• ILM1 plans to continue to raise equity to fund growth – but it may impede competitors.
just dilute exiting shareholders. • The niche is getting bigger:
ILM1 dominates
the niche • New products continuously being
• Limited ways for ILM1 for to differentiate itself from competitors. improved which has led to the global
specialty pharmaceutical industry
• Business model is simple but there is no clear runway for long-term doubling in size from 2013-2019 to
growth. $336B.
Consensus vs Results • ≈10% industry growth anticipated in
Return Breakdown:
Germany.
• While multiple equity raises did increase
Dilution funded the
share count, the proceeds were used to fund
growth
the ultimately accretive growth plan.
• Developed vastly superior quality testing.
ILM1 did
• Developed proprietary digital software to
differentiate
improve sourcing and logistics.
• Expanded patient-specific drug manufacturing
Patient-specific capabilities and leveraged network of
drugs grew the top pharmacies to increase sales:
and bottom line • Segment grew at 48% CAGR from 2016
to 2019 to €57M.
494
Back to List
Medios AG Takeaways
ILM1 is a High Quality Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
• ILM1 is the dominant player in the specialty Can ILM1 Sustain its Market Position?
ILM1 has a wide moat pharmaceutical supply industry in Germany. • ILM1’s moat is strong.
• Network effects has entrenched ILM1’s moat. • The niche nature of the industry, required scale, and
• ILM1 has continuously grown its patient-specific regulations impede new entrants.
manufacturing of drugs. • ILM1 has invested in digital infrastructure since
• Leverages pharmacy network to grow sales. inception.
ILM1 has capitalized on its
niche. • Capitalizes on trends towards increasingly
specific drugs. Can ILM1 continue to grow faster than the industry?
• Created digital back-end that optimizes operations and • There will likely be few formidable competitors to ILM1 given
has invested in proprietary quality testing. their moat.
• Future growth opportunities in patient-specific drugs and
• The industry continues to grow due to demographics, licensing of testing technology provide clear path for growth.
pervasiveness of chronic disease, and creation of new
drugs. Cyclicality is also extremely minimal.
Is ILM1 poised to continue to outperform the market?
• ILM1’s scale makes them the clear choice for the
• The specialty pharmaceutical industry anticipated to grow at
remaining 800 specialty pharmacies in Germany.
nearly 10% annually and already doubled from 2013 to 2019.
ILM1 has a clear pathway • Also will likely be more specialty drugs to sell as
• ILM1 has clear pathways for growth in patient-specific drugs
for growth. new ones are invented.
and testing technology licensing.
• ILM1 can continue to grow its capacity to create new
• ILM1 will likely consolidate industry further and sign up more
patient-specific drugs.
pharmacies – which will strengthen its moat, buying power,
• ILM1 plans to sell its proprietary testing system that can and revenue with little incremental expenses.
test the authenticity of drugs in minutes rather than
• ILM1’s multiple is very high – 50x earnings – and the last time
weeks.
ILM1 traded at a high multiple, the stock cratered.
495
Owen Stimpson
415%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQGS:AMED
Rank: 80/104
496
Amedisys Overview
Amedisys, Inc. is a healthcare services company and is a provider
of home health, hospice, and personal care services. The company
owns and operates approximately 524 centers in 39 states and 2020
the District of Columbia.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Market Cap 1.26B 5.64B

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x
Enterprise Value 1.36B 5.94B
PE 29.40x 36.42x
Z
Revenue 1.27B 1.66B
EBITDA 88.1M 197.4M
497
Amedisys Business Model
Sales by Division
Home healthcare for those 4%
recovering from surgery or AMED helps people live their lives,
Home illness or live with chronic in the best way possible, at home.
Health diseases, and to help 32%
prevent avoidable hospital • AMED has different services to 64%
readmissions. help people live at home:
• Home Health is for people
who are sick. Home Health Hopsice Personal Care
• Hospice is for people who
End of life care for people are nearing the end of their
Sales by Geography
Hospice with less than six-months life.
to live. • Personal care is for people
that are incapable of simple
tasks.
• AMED helps people live at home

Provider of assistance with for as long as possible, and avoid
hospitals and care homes. 100%
Personal essential acts of living, such
USA
Care as companionship and
cooking.
AMED is a medium capital intensity business.
498
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Amedisys Competitive Analysis High Threat

Key Facts Barriers To Entry Risks
• Barriers to entry are • AMED could lose • Reimbursement

Home Health Market Pure
its quality edge.
low: now based on
• Low setup • Scale enables • Reimbursement quality, not just
Skilled nursing services in the home, Market Size $28.5B2 costs. operational rates could be Fee-for-Service.
combined with a range of other home Industry • Little efficiencies. cut. • Positive
services such as personal care LSD2
Growth differentiation. • AMED has • New entrants for AMED
services, homemaker and companion strong quality given their
• Regulatory burdens chip away at
services. • AMED is a major player at scores. strong
and complexity of market share in
1.8% market share, but the billings are the key different quality
industry is very fragmented. barriers. scores
markets.
• Scale enables
Market Pure • AMED could lose • Reimbursement
operational
Hospice Structure Competition • Barriers to entry are its quality edge. now based on
efficiencies.
low for same reasons • Reimbursement quality, not just
Market Size $218.8B1 above. • AMED has
rates could be Fee-for-Service.
Industry that provides programs that strong quality
Industry • Regulatory burdens cut. • Positive
offer symptom relief and pain HSD1 scores.
Growth and complexity of • New entrants for AMED
management for patients with life- • Relationships
billings are the key chip away at given their
terminating illnesses. with potential
• AMED is a major player at barriers. market share in strong
1.97% market share, but the referral
different quality
industry is very fragmented.3 services (i.e.
markets. scores
doctors).
1. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-home-healthcare-market
2. IBIS World
3. https://homehealthcarenews.com/2020/01/amedisys-closes-hospice-acquisition-right-at-home-to-move- 499
headquarters/#:~:text=With%20just%201.97%25%20of%20U.S.,and%20HCR%20ManorCare%20were%20larger.
• CMS reimbursement rates were increased
- Revenue will continue to be hampered by reimbursements cuts by 2.2%.
made by the CMS, and Medicaid customers might lose coverage if Government
• Transition from fee-for-service to value
the ACA is repealed. concerns didn’t pan
based reimbursement a strong tailwind for
- The company does not have a strong track record of cutting costs as out – instead they
AMED which has strong CMS quality
cost per visit was rising. This squeezed margins further. helped AMED
scores.
- The 2015 failure of their proprietary AMS3 operating
system to cut costs amplified this concern. • The ACA was not repealed.
- AMED was fined 150 million by the federal government over • The fine was a one-time cost, the AMS3
allegations that they violated the False Claims Act by submitting system was replaced by better system that
false home healthcare billings to the Medicare program. Not exactly cut costs, and AMED made other operational
a positive sign for investors. Costs did come down improvements.
• EBITDA margins have, as a result, risen
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results steadily.
• AMED has made 9 acquisitions since 2015.

• Fragmentation in the Home Care and Hospice
industries have enabled AMED – one of the
Market
largest players – to pursue accretive
fragmentation has
acquisitions and create further value through
given AMED many
operational synergies.
acquisition targets
• Acquisitions have also been a way for the
company to reinvest its healthy cash flow from
operations.
500
Back to List
Amedisys Takeaways
AMED is a Solid Business – 3.5/5 Future Outlook
• Low start-up costs and minimal service
Can Amedisys Sustain its Market Position?
The industry has two key differentiation have created low barriers to entry.
• AMED’s scale will continue to provide them with an
issues: barriers to entry • Reimbursement rates are always subject to change by
edge over their competitors – but it is ultimately a
and susception to the CMS.
weak advantage.
political risk • Runway for industry growth due to demographics,
• With the CMS’s newfound emphasis on quality, other
but it is not clear who will capture the growth.
competitors may start to improve quality and erode
that advantage.
• AMED captured market share through acquisitions.
AMED took advantage of Can Amedisys continue to grow faster than the industry?
• AMED made large gains in 2018 while three out of its
the industry’s growth and
five major competitors were boggled down by major • AMED’s scale will enable them to continue to grow faster
size
acquisition integration. than the industry via tuck-in acquisitions of smaller
players.
• AMED exploited the low barriers and industry • Organic growth without reinvestment will likely not
fragmentation to entry by acquiring many smaller exceed the industry because their quality advantage
competitors. will shrink and major competitors will not be bogged
• Reimbursement rates were changed to reflect quality, an down integrating major acquisitions.
advantage of AMED relative to the industry, which Is Amedisys poised to continue to outperform the market?
Industry issues have not helped them. • AMED trades at the highest NTM EV/EBITDA multiple of its
been a problem – yet. • AMED is a solid business in an unattractive industry. peer group and in its history. AMED will likely suffer
• AMED has scale and quality advantages. multiple contraction due to the points mentioned above.
• But low barriers to entry will keep competition • There is a chance political pressures push reimbursement
high, and political risk can hurt their topline at rates down.
any moment which means AMED is not a high- • Competitors have begun to consolidate and there will be
quality business. more competition for accretive M&A.
501
Owen Stimpson
411%
5 Year TSR
AIM:IGR
Rank: 81/104
502
IG Design Group Overview
IG Design Group plc designs, manufactures, and distributes
EV / NTM EBITDA
celebrations, stationery and creative play, gifting, and not for sale
consumable products. Its celebrations products include greetings 2019
cards, Christmas crackers, gift bags, gift wraps, etc.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Market Cap £75.56 £564.53M

0x 5x 10x 15x
PE 10.85x 19.01x
EBITDA 15.6M 35.0M
503
IG Design Group Business Model
Sales by Segment
IGR designs, manufactures and IGR designs, manufactures, 9% 3%
distributes gift packaging and and distributes a variety of
greetings, stationery basic, cheap goods. 11%
Consumer
and creative play products,
Products
seasonal décor, design-led • IGR aims to be a one-stop 77%
giftware, and ‘not-for-resale’ shop for its customer across
consumables. all its product categories:
ccelebrations, stationery and
Celebrations Stationary Gifting NFR
creative play, gifting and
Sales by Geography
‘Not-for-resale’
9%
consumables.1
• IGR designs and 28%
manufactures 30% of
products and the
remainder are sourced. 49% 14%
• IGR focuses on major

customers (“winners”) UK EU USA Australia
• Top 10 customers 48%
Sample IGR Products of revenue; Walmart
20% of revenue. IGR is a medium capital intensity busines.
1. Not for sale consumables combines our well-established Polaris business with paper twist handle bags
504
Low Threat
Medium Threat
IG Design Group Competitive Analysis High Threat

Oligopoly / • Customer
Market
Toy and Craft Monopolistic concentration:
Structure
Wholesaling Competition • Need relationships 48% sales from
Market Market Size ≈29.4B1 with various suppliers top 10
to match product customers.
Industry range. • Wide product
This industry consists of LSD2 • E-commerce has
Growth range which
wholesalers of toys and craft • “One stop shop” continued to grow.
makes IGR “one
supplies, including fireworks, • Not a perfect industry • Capital intensive to stop shop for matters less for
games, playing cards and overlap since IGR operates manufacturer / design customers.” ecommerce • Relationship with
hobby goods. in multiple industries not new products. players who can Walmart has grown
included such as stationaries rely on drop to 20% of revenue
and not-for-resale • Operational shipping.
• Not very difficult to following acquisition
consumables. synergies with
create new, cheap of Impact.
• IGR acquired a former major scale.
party items like gift • Seasonal
competitor: Impact.
wrap (essentially business (focus
• Biggest threat to IGR is commodities too). on Christmas
customers working directly which is 60% of
with suppliers. sales).
1. Ibis World.
505
• Enabled IGR to market itself as “one-stop
Brand change
shop” for retailers and expand into
worked
• Brand change will not have a material impact. adjacent spaces.
• Maintained, and grew, key relationship with
• IGR sells basic goods, many of which are essentially commodities,
Walmart which now accounts for 20% of
and will not be able to guard their market share.
revenue.
• Especially given customer concentration.
• Acquisition of Impact Innovations
• IGR has not shown that they are capable of achieving topline IGR protected its strengthened relationship as they now
growth: growth essentially flat since 2011. positioning supply seasonal décor and gift wrap.
• IGR’s focus on winners strategy has increased
revenue customer concentration of top 10
customers to nearly 50% - IGR has grown its
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results relationship and position with top retailers.
• Grew revenue by expanding production
selection.
• I.E. giftware sales increased from 31M
in FY2017 to ≈50% in FY2019.
• IGR doubled down on major retailers:
IGR grew revenue • Top 10 customers nearly 50% of sales.
• 2019 organic growth from top 10
customers 19%.
• American major retailers drove USA
revenue from 58M in FY2015 to
282.4M in FY0219.
506
Back to List
IG Design Group Takeaways

IGR is a Good Business- 3.5/5 Future Outlook
• IGR’s products will always be relatively easy to Can IGR Sustain its Market Position?
replicate but IGR has built a moat through scale. • IGR has demonstrated that they can maintain – and build
• Since IGR offers so many products to its customers, upon – key relationships.
IGR built a moat switching is difficult – they would need to find a new • While its products are replicable, its scale and selection is
supplier for many different items. not easily copied.
• Invested in manufacturing and sourcing
capabilities to maintain this advantage.
Can IGR continue to grow faster than the industry?
• The “focus on winners” strategy enabled IGR to grow its
relationships with key, major retailers who now • IGR can likely continue to grow its product selection
account for ≈50% of sales (Walmart alone ≈20%). organically and via acquisitions.
• Stores may start to simplify their product selection which
• Grew revenue from 229M in FY2015 to 484.4M
could mute sales (i.e. following trends of Aldi and other stores
in FY2019.
with less SKUs).
IGR executed a simple, but • Grew product categories: “Not for Resale” Consumables • With such large scale, it is difficult to continue to grow fast.
strong, strategy 8.5M FY2017 revenue to 19.9M in FY2019; creative
play 5M to 16M in same period. Is IGR poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Also entrenched relationship with customers as • While IGR poses customer concentration as an advantage, risk
they supply more products. of losing major customer looms and would destroy returns.
• Expanded seasonal diversity so less reliant on • Retail is evolving and IGR may not be poised to continue to
Christmas. perform: stores trending towards less SKUs, ecommerce
growing.
• IGR aims to continue to expand its product line
• At 10 NTM EBITDA IGR could continue to outperform given
IGR path forward is (organically and inorganically), grow major customer
modest valuation and simple strategy that has worked well so
simialr relationships, and attain operational efficiencies through
far.
scale.
507
Owen Stimpson
407%
5 Year TSR
AIM:IDEA
Rank: 82/104
508
Ideagen Overview
IDEA provides information management, safety, risk, and EV / NTM EBITDA
compliance software solutions that allow organizations to
achieve operational excellence, regulatory compliance, and
2019
reduce risk.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x
PE 15.00x 32.58x
Revenue 14.4M 53.0M
EBITDA 2.2M 9.2M
509
Ideagen Business Model
Sales by Segment
IT solutions and IDEA makes IT software for
products for companies in regulated 1%
Management Governance, Risk and 30%
industries.
Software Compliance (GRC) for • IDEA’s software is for 21%
companies in highly companies that must be
regulated industries. extra cognisant of
regulations and security 38%
given their industry. SaaS software Support
• Most customers in Software Licenses Professional Services
industries listed on the
Sales by Geography
left.
• IT products for Governance,
1%
Risk and Compliance (GRC) 38%
solutions. 12%
• Sold as SaaS products
with maintenance and
support services
available. 38%
• Help customers meet UK NA EU Rest
regulatory and
IDEA’s customers are in mainly in the Automotive, Aerospace, compliance standards. IDEA is a low/medium capital intensity business.
Defense, Life Sciences, and Finance and Banking Industries.
510
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Ideagen Competitive Analysis High Threat

GRC (Governance, Risk, Market Monopolistic

Compliance) software Structure Competition • Switching costs: small
expense for customers
industry Market Size 1.62B1
but their operations
Participants develop and sell Industry are embedded with • Increasing amount
> 10%1 • IDEA’s product is • Technological
software than enables Growth the software. of international
Industry standard: change.
companies to achieve their standards that
• Idea retention • High
governance objectives, manage • IDEA operates in a subset of the customers must
rate > 95%. penetration • Security breach.
risk, and act with integrity. industry: focuses on companies meet. I.E.:
in target
in highly regulated industries • IATA/e-
• Regulations that industries.
with heightened GRC • Major regulation IOSA for
requirements. software needs to changes that aviation.
address can be • Reputation and require new • ISO 45001
• IDEA has strong market complex and are security, especially investment for for health
position: subject to change. given sensitivity of software and safety.
• 7/10 top UK accounting GRC for customers. updates.
firms. • Etc.
• Low-start up capital
• 80% of NHS Trusts.
required to develop
• Top 7 global aerospace
competing product.
and defense companies.
1. https://grc2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2019-02-2019-GRC-Market-Analysis.pdf
511
• IDEA’s TAM grew as regulations became
• IDEA has already penetrated its core markets: 7 of the top 10 UK more stringent and companies began to
accounting firms, over 80% of NHS Trusts and the top 7 global seek an enterprise wide approach to
Aerospace and Defence companies. handle GRC.
• TAM grew at roughly 13% CAGR.
• Acquisitions are not the best use of capital.
• Skepticism over 17.5M Gael acquisition. • IDEA expanded customers from
Customer base grew 1500 in FY2015 to 4700 in FY2019.
• Technology will likely evolve fast – uncertainty whether an old • Acquisitions accelerated growth as
company like IDEA can keep up. company used cash flow to buy 11 other
companies since 2015.
• Maintained existing recurring revenue
EPS Results customer base: contract renewal rate of
Return Breakdown:
95%.
• Acquisitions successfully integrated and

enabled IDEA to scale quickly and consolidate
a fragmented industry.
Strong acquisition
• EPS grown from 0.35 in FY2015 to 0.48 in
history
FY2019.
• Acquisitions accelerated growth but IDEA still
grew organically >8% each year.
• IDEA has leading technology and improved
Leading technology technology by integrating acquisitions.
• Set up dedicated research team in FY2018.
512
Back to List
Ideagen Takeaways
IDEA is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
Can IDEA Sustain its Market Position?
• While barriers to entry are not sky-high, IDEA has
• IDEA has an extremely high 95% retention rate.
developed the widest moat it can by ensuring it has
IDEA developed the the best product and maintaining a strong reputation. • IDEA continually invests in improving its product.
deepest moat it could • Healthy cash flow can enable future investments
• Used acquisitions to scale quickly and consolidate a
and consolidated to maintain strong product either through R&D or
fragmented industry that is growing.
acquisitions.
• Enabling IDEA to capture the industry growth.
• IDEA grew its customer base by 313% from FY2015 to Can IDEA continue to grow faster than the industry?
FY2019. • IDEA can continue to pursue acquisitions that will enable
• IDEA seized on market growth as companies begin to rapid growth.
IDEA captured industry seek enterprise wide solutions for GRC issues and as • IDEA is a dominant player and can likely capture
growth and maintained regulations become more stringent. disproportionally high amount of industry growth.
existing customer base
• IDEA maintained its existing customer base with >95%
retention rate. Is IDEA poised to continue to outperform the market?
• 67% of revenue recurring as well. • IDEA is a strong player in an industry that is growing.
• IDEA’s earnings visibility is strong given their high
• Robust and increasing cash flow will enable IDEA to customer retention and recurring revenue.
continue to make acquisitions and scale.
• At 32x forward earnings, IDEA trades at a premium but,
IDEA has a runway for • Market trends that grew TAM likely to continue. given their position this is warranted.
growth • IDEA is one of the largest players and is seen as the
• Strong track record of consistently meeting targets
safest option for companies seeking a GRC solution.
each year.
• “Nobody ever got fired for hiring IBM. “
513
Max Schieferdecker
405%
5 Year TSR
OM:SECT B
Rank: 83/104
514
Sectra Overview
Sectra is a healthcare IT company based in Linkӧping, Sweden, NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
that manages medical images and patient information related
to diagnostic imaging. 2020 44.5x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 17.0x
0.0x 10.0x 20.0x 30.0x 40.0x 50.0x
NTM P/E 29.74x 74.89x Z
Revenue 1.06B 1.67B
EBITDA 189.06M 296.45M
515
Sectra Business Model
3.2% 0.1%
• IT systems for
SECT B helps hospitals improve
managing, archiving, 11.3%
their operational efficiencies
Imaging IT and presenting all
Solutions types of medical • SECT B offers one secure
images and patient Enterprise Imaging Platform 85.4%
information that stores hospitals’ images
and information in the cloud
Imaging IT Solutions Secure Communications Business Innovation Other
• Products and services • This software can be
for secure voice and used for radiology, Sales by Geography
data communications mammograms,
Secure 6.2%
and the protection of pathology, cardiology,
Communications 20.1% 27.8%
society’s most and any other –ology
sensitive IT
• Operates as a SaaS company
infrastructure 9.0%
that takes care of the storage
and the upgrades remotely 13.9% 23.1%
• IT systems for for the hospitals
planning and
• 1800 hospitals around the U.S. Sweden UK Netherlands Rest of Europe Rest of the World
Business monitoring orthopedic
world use SECT B’s platform,
Innovation surgery and products
which provides a solid base of SECT B is a capital light business due to the non-
for medical education
recurring revenue existent need for manufacturing and heavy R&D
and research projects
516
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Sectra Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Medical Imaging Software
• High availability (stability
The players in this industry uses the and usability) of Sectra
latest technological advancements, PACS (picture archive and
software, and latest equipment in communication system)
order to generate graphical • High quality
representations of the interior of a
implementation and
body for diagnosis, clinical analysis, • High switching costs as
training • Not being able to maintain
and medical intervention. most hospitals already
• Effective integrations with an adequate pace of • Electronic health
have integrated software
EMRs (electronic medical innovation to continue to records have
into their systems
Market Perfect records) and other grow become more
Structure Competition • High levels of
systems • Political decisions could prevalent than
technological expertise are
• Awarded best in KLAS impact healthcare before
Market Size $3.44B1 needed to develop a
award for 7 years in a row reimbursement
quality product
Industry by healthcare research
HSD1
Growth firm KLAS
• Hospitals take KLAS
rankings into
account when
purchasing
1https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/medical-imaging-software-market-industry
517
• In 2018, there were any multiyear
contracts that were signed that
contributed to a record-high number
• Sectra was a solid company but there was no expectation of Retained Many of orders
extremely high growth into the future Customers for
• This was driven by an
• This was likely because there was not a lot of attention the Long Run increased presence in many
given to the stock by analysts and investors markets, including the US,
Australia, Canada, and France
• As a result of the coronavirus pandemic,
many medical students got sent home,
thus making many aspects of the
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results curriculum difficult to deliver
• As a result, demand for the
Sectra Education Portal
increased dramatically
COVID-19
Caused a Surge • The SEP allows educational institutions
to store their own lectures based on
in Demand clinical cases as well as access cases
from other connected institutions all
remotely
• Allows for students to still access
high-quality medical school
material and cases from their
own homes
518
Back to List
Sectra Takeaways
SECT B is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
• Sectra provides a very high-quality products and are Can SECT B Sustain its Advantages?
well known for their history of customer satisfaction • SECTB has a great reputation as a firm
• However, there are a few larger players (Agfa, that puts its clients above all else, which
INFINITT, GE Healthcare) in the industry that is praised by KLAS
may make it harder to further penetrate the • This is especially evident in their
market extremely low churn rate
SECT B has a Moat
• The products offer a lot of value to its customers
that need to move to the cloud to increase their
efficiency and thus reduce costs Can SECT B continue to grow?
• The cloud model also makes it easier for • As SECTB continues to invest in the R&D of
patients to access their medical images and new products and the SEP continues to do
records well due to the changing education
landscape, it will continue to grow
• Stable base of recurring revenue and cash flows from
existing customers allows for an increased focus on
future growth Is SECT B poised to continue to outperform?
• Customer churn rate is also very low so it is • Due to a large part of the past
Strong Market highly unlikely that the business will go downhill outperformance coming from multiple
Position anytime in the near future expansion and the relative penetration of
• Growth opportunities include the consolidation of hospitals that it already has, SECTB is
hospitals (leads to the need for a more centralized cloud unlikely to continue its outperformance into
management system), expanding upstream to larger
the future
hospitals, and fully utilizing cloud deliveries
519
Owen Stimpson
400%
5 Year TSR
OB:TOM
Rank:84/104
520
TOMRA Systems Overview In Norwegian krone (kr)
EV / NTM EBITDA
TOMRA Systems ASA (TOMRA) is a creator of sensor-based
solutions for resource productivity within the business streams
of reverse vending, material recovery, recycling, mining and food. 2019
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x
PE 15.22x 51.82x
Revenue 6.14B 9.35B
EBITDA 1.16B 1.64B
521
TOMRA Systems Business Model
Sensor based material Sales by Segment
Sorting sorting solutions for TOM helps increase recycling
Solutions food, mining, and rates through sorting and reverse
recycling end markets. vending machines.
50%
Reverse vending 50%

• RVMs enable easy return of
machines (RVM) for bottles for consumers in areas
recycling bottles and with bottle deposit system.
cans. Also includes • Deposit system shown to Collections Sorting
Collecting material recovery: pick- improve bottle return rates

Solutions up, transportation and significantly.
Sales by Geography
processing of empty • RVM’s sold directly or
beverage containers on 20%
owned and operated by
behalf of beverage TOM in throughput model 36%
producers/fillers (fee per returned bottle).
• Sorting products enable

45%
customers in those end markets
to sort materially more NA EU Rest
efficiently and effectively (i.e.

food color sorting).
TOM is a high capital intensity business.
TOM reverse vending machine in use.
522
Low Threat
Medium Threat
TOMRA Systems Competitive Analysis High Threat

Reverse Vending Market
Oligopoly • Lithuania and New
Structure • Dominant
Machine Industry market share / • New entrants
South Wales moved
Market Size ≈$14.91B1 to deposit system.
• Development costs global reach. enter market /
Participants design, develop, Industry (TOM machines have • England and
• Enough capital target specific
and sell reverse vending LSD1 Australia moving to
Growth strong user to use geographies.
machines for bottle and can deposit system.
• Largest RVM company with experience, app, etc.). throughput • Deposit system
collection. • UN called for all
>80k units installed. Only one model. regulation
nations to introduce
other company with more than • Scale enables changes.
deposit systems
10k (Diebold Nixdorf). cost advantages.
(2017).
• Over 70% market share.
Materials Sorting Market

Oligopoly • Push to increase
Structure
Industry • Technologically
• Breadth of • Major product efficiency of
Market Size ≈$6.87B1 products (TOM failure. manufacturing
advanced product
Participants design, develop, products cover • Exposure to end process through data
Industry with high
and sell products that enable > 10%1 range of sorting / robotics.
Growth development cost. market
customers in mining, food, and criteria). cyclicality (i.e. • Recycling supported
recycling to sort their • Technology protected
• 25% market share in food, 55- • Customer mining by legislative
materials more efficiently and by patents (over 80
60% in recycling, and 40-50% relationships. commodity changes: EU target
effectively (industry only patents).
in mining. • Reputation. prices). 70% packaged
including those end markets). • Leading player in recycling / recycled by 2030.
mining.
1. Based on 2020 investor presentation market share data.

523
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • TOM was not fined again for anti-
competitive practices.
• TOM will not be able to maintain its ≈65% market share in RVMs as
TOM maintained • Market share maintained; now at ≈70%.
the technology is replicable.
dominance • Scale, experience, reputation, and product
• TOM has been fined by the European commission for
abusing its market leading position in the past. quality enabled TOM to capture share of
new markets (i.e. Lithuania).
• Minimal room for growth given saturation of core European • TOM expanded to new markets for core RVM
markets. products: Lithuania, New South Wales,
Australia.
• Gross margin trended downwards since 2010. • And capitalized on cyclical
replacement cycle of old machines (i.e.
in Sweden and Germany).
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results • Grew sorting solutions business from 1.89B in
sales in FY2015 to 4.71B in FY2019.
TOM grew • Continually improved products for
mining, food, and recycling each year.
• Compac acquisition in 2016 enabled
TOM to become leader in food sorting.
• Capitalized on industry trends to lower
waste and improve efficiency (also
undergirded by political changes like
China’s ban on imported waste in
2018).
• Gross margin improved from 57% in FY2015
Margins expanded
to 61.2% in FY2019.
524
Back to List
TOMRA Systems Takeaways

TOM is a High Quality Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
Can TOM Sustain its Market Position?
• TOM is market leader in all its end markets. • TOM has sustained its market position in RVS for
• TOM’s competitive advantages in RVS enabled them decades and is the clear leader.
to continually capitalize on new markets, like New • Scale enables TOM to maintain their industry leading
TOM has a moat
South Wales and others. products.
• Advanced technology and patents gives TOM a moat • Reputation, breadth of products are key advantages.
in sorting solutions.
Can TOM continue to grow faster than the industry?
• TOM’s positioning will enable them to continue to capture
• Industry trends towards minimizing waste and market share as the TAM expands.
improve efficiency such as lowering food waste and
• TOM’s leading technology and product/service offerings
moving towards circular economy.
can help them outcompete and capture existing share
TOM capitalized on • Consistency captured new markets as they came for from competitors.
industry trends core RVS segment.
Is TOM poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Made purchases of Compac and BBC to expand sorting • TOM has a dominant position in a growing market with
business; continually improved products and strong secular tailwinds that show no sign of slowing.
technology each year.
• TOM has maintained market share and grown its business
by consistently growing the adjacent sorting solutions
• Political and social trends towards minimizing waste and
segment.
improving efficiency likely to continue.
• At 25x NTM EBITDA TOM is not cheap but I think its
• I.E. only 14% of plastic packaging recycled – lots
TOM has a runway for multiple is fair given its history, dominant positioning,
of room for growth.
growth and room for growth.
• Dominant market share and competitive advantages can
• Multiple expansion may be unlikely but so is
enable TOM to continue to capitalize on industry growth.
contraction –EBITDA growth, however, is likely to
• Order backlog of 1.7B as of Q2 2020. continue.
525
Owen Stimpson
394%
5 Year TSR
XTRA:AOF
Rank: 85/104
526
ATOSS Software Overview
ATOSS Software AG develops and sells workforce management EV / NTM EBITDA
software. It also provides software maintenance, hardware, and
consulting services related to the electronic systems that control
2019
personnel deployment.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Stock Price €19.82 €89
Market Cap €157.65M €707.83M

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x
PE 19.95x 46.50x
Revenue 44.9M 71.4M
EBITDA 11.8M 20.4M
527
ATOSS Software Business Model
Range of software
AOF is a human resources IT
solutions that covers
Workforce provider.
entire range of
management
workforce management
software • AOF has a suite of software Sales by Geography
problems for companies
solutions that cover entire
of all sizes.
range of workforce
management issues:
scheduling, workforce 14%
forecasting, time
management, etc.
86%
• Range of customers from
small businesses, to major Germany Rest
multinational companies, to
governments.
AOF is a medium capital intensity business
• Consistent investment of
because of their high R&D spend (which is
≈20% of revenue on R&D –
capitalized in the ROCE graph).
making AOF a leader in the
space and a the forefront of
Sample AOF customers HR IT innovation.
528
Low Threat
Medium Threat
ATOSS Software Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market
Oligopoly
Structure
HR and Payroll • Contracts / customer
Market Size ≈ 3B1
Software relationships can be
• Brand • Rise in automation
Industry long-term.
MSD1 reputation. has made human
Participants in this industry Growth
capital more
develop, sell, and service HR • Many different important (less
• Understanding • Data breach.
and payroll software for features must be low skill jobs;
businesses and governments. • Largest players in the world are the market.
developed. more high skill
Workday, ADP, Oracle, SAP, • Losing major jobs).
• Customer
Ultimate. • AOF scale customer.
feedback also
important to enables them to
• AOF has strong foothold in • Evolving labour
know what to have high R&D
home German market and a regulations and
develop. spend.
partnership with SAP. collective
• AOF has over 50 other bargaining
distribution • Switching costs. agreements.
partnerships.
1. 2020 Q2 presentation
529
• Recurring revenue now 49M up from 28M
• AOF has a small cloud business and still sells too many licenses. in FY2015.
• Cloud business grown from 200k to 7.8M
• Share price has already risen a lot – there is little room for future
growth. AOF increased in sales, and has grown especially fast in
• Growth will begin to stall now. recurring revenue the last few years (2M in FY 2017).
• Licenses continue to be consistent revenue
• Poor capital allocation - AOF does not need to spend so much on driver at 14.5M in annual revenue in
R&D. FY2019.
• Strong growth continued:

EPS Results • Revenue grew from 44.9M to 71.4M.
Return Breakdown:
• Healthy 26%> EBITDA margins
Growth continued
maintained.
and margins
• Customers quadrupled from 550 in FY2017 to
maintained.
2,541 in FY0219.
• Runway for future growth with increased
recurring sales and growing TAM.
• Continual strong investments in R&D enabled

Capital allocation AOF to become a market leader and
worked consistently capture more market share.
• Dividend increased each year.
530
Back to List
ATOSS Software Takeaways

AOF is a Strong Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
Can AOF Sustain its Market Position?
• 20% of revenue invested each year in technology • Not only maintained customer base but grew it
developments has enabled AOF to maintain tis exponentially.
position as the leading player in the market.
AOF entrenched its moat • Low 1.8% churn rate.
• Developed 5,580 new features into flagship
through high R&D • Industry leading software.
Efficiency suite product over 10 years.
• Industry with high switching costs and long-term
customer relationships
Can AOF continue to grow faster than the industry?
• Industry trends that emphasize the importance of high • AOF has demonstrated their capability to grow faster
human capital and data analytics grew TAM. than the industry for 10 years.
• AOF capitalized and grew customer base by 4x • AOF has industry leading software which caters to all
AOF capitalized on from FY2017 to FY2019. segments of the market: from businesses of 2 people to
industry trends and grew 200,000.
• Expanded recurring revenue streams by building cloud
offerings. • Strong recurring revenue base.
• Sales per customer growing at 7%.
Is AOF poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Industry trends, such as emphasis on making data driven • Strong runway for growth and stable recurring revenue.
decisions and importance of human capital, likely to • TAM likely to continue to grow and AOF is likely to
AOF has a runway for continue. capture this growth.
growth • AOF has industry leading software which continues to • At 8.43x sales AOF is very highly valued and there are
improve through customer feedback and continued high other competent competitors in the market that could
R&D investments.
stifle their growth and cause multiple contraction.
531
Elizabeth DeSouza
392%
5 Year TSR
ENXTPA:ALESK
Rank: 86/104
532
Esker SA Overview
Esker SA, headquartered in Lyon, France, provides document
processing automation solutions to the life science,
manufacturing, food and beverage, electronics, and chemical
industries. 2020 27.4x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 9.2x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
Market Cap €116.97 €650.95
Enterprise Value €104.52 €636.11
NTM P/E 21.44x 60.84x Z
Revenue €62.3M €110.5M
533
Esker SA Business Model
Sales by Geography
ALESK is a SaaS, offering solutions
11.0% 5.0%
• Esker on Demand, a designed to eliminate paper and
38.0%
cloud-based service inefficiencies in business
that enables • Document processing automation 5.0%
companies to services sold to businesses that cover
automate business the Order-to-Cash (02C) and the
41.0%
documents Procure-to-Pay (P2P) processes
Document USA France
• Esker DeliveryWare, • O2C is the cycle from customer order to U.K. Europe
Automation Asia/ Pacific
a license-based invoice collection
Technology
document process
• P2P is the cycle from selection of 2.0% Sales by Category
automation product
• Esker Fax, integrates suppliers to invoice payment 0.0%
7.0%
fax with enterprise • Streamlining these cycles with
applications and automation software improve company
messaging platforms efficiency 73.0%
18.0%
• ALESK products are sold as on-demand
SaaS Consulting Maintenance
online services
License Hardware
• ALESK solutions cover all customer and
supplier cycles
• Typical contract length is 3 years ALESK is a capital light business.
534
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Esker SA Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Application Software
• ALESK considers itself the • Constantly
only player covering evolving to create
The players in this industry offer simultaneously the P2P and more efficient
software programs and data O2C cycles software
management to customers in all • High risk of hackers
• Offers a unique solution with solutions
sectors targeting the customer
a single interface for all • Increased
• Significant investment in data stored by ALESK
administrative and financial concern for
R&D needed in this space • From a short-term
processes to be automated. cyber-security
• Some very large perspective, the Group is and protection of
• Advantage over its
Market companies in the exposed to a potential customer data
Oligopoly competitors in the successful
Structure industry, but new risk of high turnover and
integration of artificial • Increased need
companies still have to an inability to recruit
Market Size $10.8B intelligence into its solutions for businesses to
room to enter quality personnel and
• Deep learning has allowed it to to digitize their
Industry preserve a balanced wage
MSD significantly improve the processes
Growth policy.
recognition of unstructured • Organic growth
documents and offer new will be driven by
functionalities such as detecting cloud based
anomalies or fraud solutions
535
• In 2015, ALESK was a smaller, more regional business,
with lots of competition from firms of similar size • In 2019, ALESK signed
• Software provided by ALESK did not have as high of a partnerships with Fuji-Xerox
demand as it does today and KPMG in the Netherlands
• Unclear if big IT companies would take customers from • In 2020, the partnership with
ALESK Fuji Xerox was extended to
• Acquired two companies in 2015, one in the U.S. and one
cover all of the APAC region
in France, but uncertain if these acquisitions would • By partnering with a bigger
benefit ALESK, and to what extent
company like Xerox, ALESK will
Strategic be able to reach more
Partnerships customers and thus increase
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results sales
• Partnership with Quadient
represented 10% of ALESK’s
sales
• Today, the focus is more on
partnerships and organic
growth, rather than
acquisitions
EBITDA
536
Back to List
Esker SA Takeaways
ALESK is a Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
• ALESK is unique in that it covers the Order-to- Can ALESK Sustain its Advantages?
Cash (02C) and the Procure-to-Pay (P2P) • ALESK has patent protected technology
processes • Main competitive advantage is ability to
ALESK has a Niche serve P2P and O2C cycles, but this could be
• The market for back office automation services replicated by other companies
is growing, and ALESK already offers a full
portfolio of proven solutions Can ALESK continue to grow?
• Demand for digitization of business processes is
increasing, which will increase ALESK’s
customer base and allow them to continue to
grow
• ALESK has invested heavily in developing the • Developing cloud platform service to grow into
use of artificial intelligence in its products, a new customer class
giving them a further edge over their Is ALESK poised to continue to outperform?
Investments in New competitors
• Contracts signed in 2019 have not yet fully
Technology • Investing in cloud based platform to meet the
growing demand impacted sales, so ALESK should see strong
revenue growth in 2020
• About 10% of total group sales are allocated
to R&D to keep ALESK technology competitive • Gross and EBITDA margins have decreased over
the past five years
• ALESK is currently trading at its highest multiple
of the last 5 years at 37.87x
537
Owen Stimpson
388%
XTRA:BC8 5 Year TSR
Rank: 87/104
538
Bechtle Overview
EV / NTM EBITDA
Bechtle AG is the largest IT system house in Germany with 70
locations in the D-A-CH region. The business model combines IT
services with the direct sale of IT products. 2019
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Market Cap €1.41B €6.29B

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x
Enterprise Value €1.34B €6.55B
PE 16.13x 33.70x
Revenue 2.83B 5.37B
539
Bechtle Business Model
IT strategy and Sales by Division
BC8 is a one-stop shop for companies
IT System consulting (project
to build their IT infrastructure.
House & planning, rollout, and 35%
Managed maintenance); also
• BC8 service portfolio spans the
Services consists of sales of IT
entire IT value chain – making BC8 a
hardware and software. 65%
one-stop shop provider.
• BC8 can offer individualized IT
IT software and solutions tailored for each
IT E- hardware sold via e- customer.
System House E-Commerce
Commerce commerce and over the • BC8 is decentralized with 75 offices
phone. and 1,700 sales reps which gives Sales by Geography
customers a local contact, despite 18%
BC8 being a major company.
• BC8 E-Commerce segment operates 13%
in 14 countries and offers 50,000
products that enable customers to
7% 62%
purchase their entire IT portfolio.
• BC8 focuses on medium-sized
Germany Switzerland France Other
companies in Austria, Germany, and
Switzerland.
Screenshot of BC8 ecommerce site. BC8 is a medium capital intensity business.
540
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Bechtle Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market Monopolistic • Many customers

want a personal
German IT Market Structure Competition
contact in their
Market Size ≈€84.3B1 • Need to offer a range
region: BC8 has
of products (both
Industry 1,700 sales reps • Transition to
MSD1 hardware and
Participants consult, sell (both Growth and 75 offices. cloud services
software) and
hardware and software), undercuts need • Companies trending
• BC8 is the largest IT company services (consulting,
optimize, and maintain IT • Scale enables for local IT away from buying
in Germany. maintenance, etc.).
solutions for corporate and providers, and
• Industry is very fragmented: cost synergies hardware and
public clients. destroys
over 90,000 IT companies in (greater relying more on SaaS
• Can be capital hardware
Germany (vast majority purchasing and Cloud software
intensive to keep business.
operating on local scale). power). products instead.
hardware in stock.
• Only 38 companies (including
BC8) >250M in annual revenue. • Scale enables • Data breach.
• BC8 has roughly 4% market • Contracts can last for
BC8 to develop
share. longer than a year.
specific software
• Top ten companies just
modules on ad-
15% market share.
hoc basis.
1. 2019 annual report (data from market research institute EITO)

541
• Continued to make successful acquisitions:
• 9 acquisitions in 2019, major
• Mature company with minimal room for growth. Inmac Wstore acquisition in 2018,
• Relied on acquisitions to fuel growth in the past. etc.
• Industry trends towards cloud more likely to shrink than BC8 continued to • Grew core IT System House revenue
grow revenues. grow consistently each year from 1.8B to 3.48B
• Not the best business model: EBITDA margins ≈ 5%, medium
degree of capital intensity, needs to maintain large workforce. • Maintained strong presence and market
share in Germany but increased share of
international revenue from 30% to 37%.
• Increased focus on e-commerce platform
Consensus vs Results (investments and acquisitions) which grew
Return Breakdown:
more than 100% to 1.89B in revenue in
Capitalized on FY2019 from 943M in FY2015.
industry trends
• In 2017, invested to update data center and
launched Bechtle Clouds to capture cloud
industry growth.
• EBITDA margins expanded slightly to >5.2%
due new focus on cloud and e-commerce.
• Grew workforce from 7,205 to 10,005 which
BC8 optimized is key competitive advantage. It lowered gross
business model margins but contributed to growth.
• Also enables future growth.
• Consistently increased dividend.
542
Back to List
Bechtle Takeaways
BC8 is a Decent Business- 3.5/5 Future Outlook
• BC8 stayed true to its core strategy of providing IT Can BC8 Sustain its Market Position?
services to medium-sized business in Germany and • Large localized workforce enables BC8 to maintain
adjacent markets. positioning relative to local companies (customers
BC8 maintained its • Continued to make major investments in its often require having local contact person).
positioning workforce, even at the expense of gross margin, • Scale enables operational synergies and purchasing
given its importance to BC8’s success. power.
• Continued to consistently make acquisitions but did • One of few large companies in the industry; minimal
not stray from core strategy nor have any blow-ups. major competitive threats.
• BC8 invested in cloud infrastructure and enhanced its
Can BC8 continue to grow faster than the industry?
capabilities to provide cloud services.
• BC8 can likely maintain market share.
• But also did not lose focus of hardware business
which continues to drive revenue. • Can grow through acquisitions given industry
fragmentation.
BC8 found avenues for • Invested in and grew e-commerce platform which has
• E-commerce site represents another avenue of growth.
growth doubled in size since 2015 and provides a future
runway for growth. Is BC8 poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Less capital intensive as well given ability to use • BC8 can likely continue to grow incrementally via
drop-shipping (BC8 does not need to hold as acquisitions, organic growth, and through its ecommerce
platform.
much inventory).
• But it still operates in an industry that will likely face long-
• Investments in workforce will enable BC8 to continue to term secular decline as hardware purchases are phased
grow core IT System House segment. out.
BC8 has a runway for
• Market remains heavily fragmented – representing • At 33x forward earnings BC8 could outperform, but there
growth
opportunity for acquisitions. is no clear catalyst that would indicate strong likelihood of
• E-commerce platform can continue to grow. outperformance.
543
Max Schieferdecker
388%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQGS:LGIH
Rank: 88/104
544
LGI Homes Overview
LGI Homes is the 10th largest residential homebuilder in

America and is based in The Woodlands, TX.
2020 11.9x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 7.7x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x
NTM P/E 8.09x 14.73x Z
EBITDA 82.69M 231.51M
545
LGI Homes Business Model
Sales by Geography
LGIH makes the dream of
• New, affordable homes owning a house more of a
Homes
in attractive locations reality for everyday Americans 10.3%
• LGIH provides an affordable
39.4%
alternative to renting
• Focuses on the starter
14.8%
home market – people
with not a lot of money
to spend on a new home
• Uses a very systematic
approach with standard
processes and procedures and
intricate manuals 16.6%
• Allows for quicker 18.9%

production times and
thus more inventory Central Southeast Northwest West Florida
• Generally targets land that is
An LGI Home in the Houston area further away from urban LGIH is a capital intensive business as all
centers to supply better value manufacturing is a key part of the business
to the homeowner
546
Low Threat
Medium Threat
LGI Homes Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
U.S. Home Building

newly constructed single-family
homes, in which units are separated
by ground-to-roof walls with no other • People are
• There are low amounts of • Failure to adhere to
units above or below. moving away
• High up-front costs and differentiating factors construction codes could
result in heavy lawsuits from high COL
state-based licenses are between most of the home
areas in order to
the only material barriers builders • Home buying trends are get more for their
to entry • The advantages that heavily impacted by macro
Market Perfect money
• There is not a lot of are present in the level economics
Structure Competition • Millennials are
extremely specialized skill industry by the top • The elimination of the tax looking to
Market Size $95.1B1 that is needed to operate players (size and benefits that come with purchase more
in this industry money) are not homeownership could
Industry houses than
LSD1 possessed by LGIH reduce demand
Growth before
1https://my-ibisworld-com.libproxy.wustl.edu/us/en/industry/23611a/industry-at-a-glance
547
• LGIH did their IPO in November 2013, and, while there had • LGIH expanded their end markets
been sizable growth in the 1 full fiscal year before June 2015, it from 13 in 7 states in 2015 to 31
still was not a huge business markets in 18 states in 2020
• Investors and analysts did not forecast huge revenue • The acquisitions of relatively
growth over the next few years because of this cheap land due to the
• Some investors also feared that, because of LGIH’s outskirts strategy that they
overexposure to the Texas market, the tanking oil prices hurt Expanded employ allows for higher
the Texas economy as a whole, and thus the housing market Markets margins than the industry
would also be effected Substantially average
• They expanded into up-and-coming
Return Breakdown: markets, such as Nashville, Las
Consensus vs Results Vegas, and Portland, as well as
expanded their operations in their
current high-growth markets that
include DFW and Houston
• Low interest rates on mortgages

drove an increased interest in
home buying
Low Interest
• Millennials were getting older
Rates
and the opportunities for cheap
financing were, and still are,
hard to pass up
548
Back to List
LGI Homes Takeaways
LGIH is an Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
• While LGIH has been successful in executing its strategy,
Can LGIH Sustain its Advantages?
there is not much differentiating itself from the other large
players in the industry • LGIH has no real advantages in the first
place, so it is no going to sustain any in
LGIH doesn’t have • Gaining market share relies heavily on the ability to
the future
a Strong Moat acquire as much land to build on as possible, and
not much else
• While quality is important, that is not a significant Can LGIH continue to grow?
barrier
• The strong industry tailwinds which has
• With interest rates on mortgages lower than ever resulted in strong demand will likely
before, there has been a surge in homebuying recently continue into the future
• Interest rates aren’t projected to go back up • LGIH is also in the process of expanding
Strong Macro significantly anytime in the near future into more markets as well, which will
Tailwinds • The deurbanization and shift towards lower cost-of-living
continue to grow the company
areas has also become more popular
• The work-from-home phenomena will likely
accelerate that trend as well Is LGIH poised to continue to outperform?
• LGIH has realized very impressive top-line growth • LGIH has a strong business model and is
numbers (CAGR of 30.7%) pried to take advantage of tailwinds, while
Solid Financial • However, EBITDA margins shrunk over the same at the same time, trading in-line with
Profile period from 13.1% to 12.6% industry norm multiples (10x NTM
• End markets have also become more diversified with regards EV/EBITDA)
to its market concentration which has re-risked the stock
549
Owen Stimpson
384%
5 Year TSR
AMEX:GSB
Rank: 89/104
550
GlobalSCAPE Overview
EV / LTM EBITDA
GSB develops and sells computer software that provides secure
information exchange, data transfer, and sharing capabilities for
enterprises. 2019
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 5x 10x 15x
PE 19.70x 14.89x
EBITDA 6.58M 15.70M
551
GlobalSCAPE Business Model
Sales by Segment
GSB sells MFT software to 2%
GSB is a file transfer company.
enterprise that enables
Managed File them to securely transfer
• Helps enterprise customers
Transfer data from one location to
transfer files securely and
Software another across their own
effectively.
(MFT) networks, and to
98%
computers in other
• GSB’s MTF platform provides
networks. MFT Rest
more security, automation,
and performance compared
to traditional FTP and email Sales by Geography
based file transfer systems. 24%
• MTF service is in compliance

with information protection 76%
regulations.
• Sells products as either a

SaaS service or by one-time US Rest
license purchase (but with
GSB customers annual service fees). GSB is a low capital-intensive business.
552
Low Threat
Medium Threat
GlobalSCAPE Competitive Analysis High Threat

• Reputation as
Market secure and
Global MFT Software Oligopoly • Data breach which
Structure reliable partner.
Industry could damage
Market Size 1B1 • Regulatory burdens. reputation and
Industry • Switching costs: ruin sales pitch:
Companies in this industry > 10%1 customers’
Growth • Long-term contracts • If value of
develop and sell MFT software operations are MFT is • Major data
and relationships
to enterprises and consumers. embedded with
• GSB is one of the fastest between existing security, breaches have
players and MFT and would data breach increased demand
growing companies in the
customers. incur costs if destroys for secure file-
industry but is smaller than the
largest players. they switch. that transfer.
• GSB is the only major • Licenses argument.
• Technology start-up
pure-play competitor. mean • System issue which
costs, but they are not
• IBM and Axway have ≈50% large impedes
very high relative to
global market share. upfront customer’s
• Although their growth is other industries.
costs, and business.
slower than GSB (Axway higher
• Regulatory change.
2015 MFT revenue switching
declined). costs.
1. https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/managed-file-transfer-market
553
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • GSB focused on its core MFT business:
• Tech is an incredibly competitive sector and innovation happens 88% of revenue in FY2015 to 98% of
quickly – GSB is an old player who likely will not be able to keep revenue in FY2019.
pace. • Invested in core product and has won
GSB competed multiple awards (i.e. Corporate Visions
• Relatively new management with limited experience with GSB; past strongly best Enterprise File Transfer Solution in
management also made poor capital allocation decisions by making 2019).
value destroying acquisitions.
• Maintained high service retention rates
• Revenue growth has been minimal since 2013 but GSB’s multiple (>90%) and no competitor stole
has already expanded. significant market share.
• Bad revenue recognition scandal in 2018.
• Focus on cutting opex: SG&A as a % of sales
Return Breakdown: EPS Results down from 53% in FY2015 to 43% in FY2019.
Management
• Reversed focus on SaaS Kinetix product
ultimately worked
offering to core MFT license business.
out
• Avoided poor acquisitions; returned cash to
shareholders through dividends (including
3.35$ special dividend in 2019).
• Focus on core MFT business and grew
revenue at healthy 7% CAGR.
• Increasing amount of recurring revenue:
Revenue grew maintenance and support revenue increased
from 54% in FY2015 to 65% in FY2019.
• Revenue, EBITDA, and earnings multiples also
expanded.
554
Back to List
GlobalSCAPE Takeaways
GSB is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
• GSB realized it was spending too much time on other Can GSB Sustain its Market Position?
business units that constituted less than 10% of sales. • The high upfront costs for GSB software make switching
• GSB focused on core MTF business which now costs high.
represents vast majority – 98%- of sales. • GSB software is embedded in customer operations.
GSB focused on MTF
• Ensured product quality was high: GSB has • GSB has a strong reputation and track record.
won various awards for product quality.
• Stayed true to proven license model when
SaaS strategy did not work as well as planned.
Can GSB continue to grow faster than the industry?
• GSB took advantage of its moat and raised prices.
• GSB has a strong reputation and high product quality which
• Customers which buy a MFT license from GSB
can attract new customers.
pay large upfront costs and often must also
• But GSB’s license model may be less attractive to many new
invest in hardware, this makes switching less
customers than more prevalent SaaS models given the high
Growing effectively attractive.
upfront costs.
• GSB took greater advantage of channel sales, which
bolstered growth and now represent 37% of total sales.
Is GSB poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Maintenance and support revenue continued to • GSB has a strong position in a growing market.
increase, providing healthy recurring revenue. • Management has proven themselves to be solid capital
• The industry remains competitive but GSB is an allocators by avoiding poor acquisitions and returning cash to
established, reputable player with a strong customer shareholders through dividends.
GSB is an established base.
player in a growing • License model may impede growth and technology in the
• Potential to continue to increase licenses sold, maintain space could evolve.
market
recurring maintenance revenue, and upsell existing
• Threat of a major new entrant that could disrupt the
customers.
industry and capture market share.
555
Max Schieferdecker
384%
5 Year TSR
XTRA:D6H
Rank: 90/104
556
DATAGROUP Overview
DATAGROUP is an IT company based in Pliezhausen, Germany, NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
that provides modern day infrastructure, consulting, and
development solutions to companies. 2020 9.8x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 7.5x
0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x 12.0x
NTM P/E 14.14x 29.08x Z
Revenue 157.92M 307.54M
557
DATAGROUP Business Model
Primary Products Context Sales by Segment
0.3%
• Modular system of flexibly D6H helps companies operate
combinable services that efficiently in a digitized world 27.9%
CORBOX
cover the entire range of • For many small-to-medium
corporate IT operations sized companies, it is
expensive and difficult to find 71.8%
• Guiding companies
high-quality employees to
IT along the path of
work in a dedicated IT
Transformation transforming Services Solutions and Consulting Other
department
internal IT systems
• D6H provides IT Sales by Geography
• Developing solutions that outsourcing services
IT
are tailored to the needs
Solutions • With flagship product,
of individual clients
CORBOX, companies have a
“box” at their disposal through 100.0%
which they can pick-and-
choose the IT service modules
that are most suitable for them Germany
• It also functions as a
cloud enabling platform D6H is a capital light business as manufacturing
through which D6H is not a key part of the business
integrates their offerings
558
Low Threat
Medium Threat
DATAGROUP Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed in
the Industry
IT Services

consulting, software development, and
systems integration services that are
used by organizations in creating, • Long-term M&A growth
managing, and delivering information may not be sustainable
as well as assisting with other
business functions. • The founder and CEO,
Max Schaber, owns 51%
• Virtually no barriers to • Long-term contracts of the company, so the • Increased digitization
Market Pure entry are present besides results in a low churn-rate entire fate of the of everyday IT
Structure Competition know-how and reputation • High customer satisfaction company relies solely products
on him for the most part
• Overleverage could
Industry result in defaulting on
MSD1
Growth interest payments
1https://www.statista.com/markets/418/topic/483/it-services/
559
• There was virtually no revenue growth from 2012 to 2015 • In September 2016, D6H took over 300 IT
(CAGR of 2.4%) specialists from Hewlett-Packard
• Historically, D6H’s growth plan revolved around heavy Enterprises
M&A activity, and there was only one acquisition in the 3 • This acquisition caused D6H to
years prior to June, 2018 be one of the leading providers
of SAP HANA in Germany
• This was a company of just 50 employees, which
• SAP HANA is a key
ended up not materially help top-line growth
technology for digital
• The lack of a long-term, organic, sustainable growth plan was transformation of companies
worrisome for many investors • In August 2019, D6H acquired a 300-
Return Breakdown: Several person company in bankruptcy called IT-
Consensus vs Results Informatik
Successful
• From this deal, D6H received a
Acquisitions
broad portfolio of small and
medium sized customers which
allowed them to expand their
market share
• They also received 100 SAP experts
which allowed them to expand their
service capacity
• Made that business profitable in
less than 4 months, while
providing a €20M increase in
annual revenues
560
Back to List
DATAGROUP Takeaways
D6H is an Average Business – 2.5/5 Future Outlook
• Customers are bound to contracts for 3, 5, or even Can D6H Sustain its Advantages?
more years, with the average customer holding • Given its size relative to the much larger
D6H has a Moat period being 10 years players, D6H is in a position to continue
• This makes switching costs for customers high to be an industry leader in customer
and customer churn low service, and thus customer retention
• Strong IT capabilities have increasingly become a Can D6H continue to grow?
critical part of run a successful business • D6H will continue to seek out acquisitions
• The ability to manage people, products, and to expand their reach, as M&A growth is
processes through technology allows for cheaper than organic growth on a per
Promising Industry insights that can be used to increase efficiency customer basis for them
• The future of business is going to revolve around more • The size of the deals and the speed at
advanced technology, and if the smaller players want to which they happen are uncertain though
remain competitive, they need help in order to utilize Is D6H poised to continue to outperform?
those features in a cost-effective manner
• It is unlikely that D6H will continue to
• Top-line has grown at a CAGR of 16.8% over the past 5 outperform given the lack of organic
years while EBIT margins have remained stagnant at scalability of the business model
5.7%
• Although there was little-to-no multiple
• A debt-to-equity ratio of 3.66 and declining returns
Worrisome Financial on capital employed are signs of weak underlying
expansion, the inorganic growth rates will
Profile financial stability slow down each acquisition (only means of
• While the M&A expansion strategy does allow companies material growth) will provide smaller
to snatch up market share more easily, it is important to incremental revenue increases relative to
do so without over-levering, which D6H is guilty of previous revenues
561
Owen Stimpson
383%
5 Year TSR
ASX:CCX
Rank: 91/104
562
City Chic Collective Overview In Australian Dollars (AUD)
CCX is a leading omni-channel retailer specialising in plus size EV / NTM EBITDA

women’s apparel, accessories, and footwear. CCX core markets
are Australia and New Zealand but is growing its international
2019
presence.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Market Cap 118.23M $543.18M

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x
PE 13.79x 28.20x
EBITDA 9.7M 22.8M
563
City Chic Collective Business Model
Fashionable plus size CCX is a women’s plus size
apparel for women that clothing retailer.
is sold through CCX
Plus Size
store, and online • CCX clothing is considered
Fashion Retail Sales by Geography
through their own fashionable and CCX makes
website and other the majority of its sales at
websites. full price without
discounting.
20%
• CCX sells its clothing in
Australia and New Zealand
80%
through its 109 retail
locations.
Southern Hemisphere Northern Hemisphere
• Online presence through City
Chic website as well as CCX is a high capital-intensive business.
partnerships with variety of
online marketplaces (i.e.
Macy’s, Nordstrom, etc.).
• Sells wholesale to stores in

Inside a CCX store US and Europe.
564
Low Threat
Medium Threat
City Chic Collective Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market Monopolistic
Plus-Size Women's
Market Size 9.8B1 • Start-up capital to
Clothing Stores • Fashion risk:
Industry design range of • Brand product no longer
LSD1 clothing and set up
Retailers in this industry Growth reputation and fashionable or
specialize in plus-size store. fashion clout. brand loses clout.
women's clothing, which is • Some of CCX’s closest • Less of a
clothing proportioned competitors, such as Ascena barrier now • Brick and mortar
Retail Group in the US, are filing • Established • Supply chain retail sales have
specifically for larger women. with
Typically, sizes 14 and up are for bankruptcy. supply chain. disruptions. declined and
ecommerce.
in the plus-size category; • Could represent M&A ecommerce sales
however, not all brands and opportunity for CCX as • Product range • Brick and mortar have risen.
retailers follow this Ascena is the largest • Brand awareness
and SKUs. declines faster
convention. pure-play retailer in the essentially only true
(Covid-19 impact).
US. barrier, however this
is a weak barrier to
• Most stores are owned and entry.
operated on a local level.
1. Underestimated figures as they do not include online sales or plus-size clothing sales from stores with multiple departments: Ibis World.
565
• CCX completely transformed their business
• Brand weakness, such as Rivers which is losing money. in July 2018 (impacting FY2019 and
• Also seems like a poor acquisition, which raises questions beyond) when they divested from 5/6 of
about capital allocation. their brands, including Rivers.
CCX divested from
• Brick-and-mortar stores are going away and CCX will not be able to five / six of their • CCX transformed into a pure-play
adapt to ecommerce. brands women's plus size retailer.
• Acquisitions since have been focused on
• Extremely slim EBITDA margins at just over 1%; unprofitable at an the women’s plus size niche, and growing
EBIT level. market share.
• Ecommerce sales as a % of revenue have

EPS Results increased from 6.5% in FY2015 to 53% in
Return Breakdown: Q12020.
• CCX is focused on ecommerce: acquired solely
the ecommerce assets of Avenue, a plus sized
Ecommerce retailer in the US.
penetration
• CCX is not afraid to adapt their brick and
mortar operations:
• Opening larger stores as they’ve
performed better.
• Closed 14 stores in June.
• Divesting from other brands helped CCX grow

Margins grew their EBITDA margin to 15.2% in FY2019 and
the company is profitable.
566
Back to List
City Chic Collective Takeaways

CCX is a Good Business- 3.5/5 Future Outlook
• CCX divested from 5/6 of its brands, impacting Can CCX Sustain its Market Position?
FY2019 onwards. • Many traditional competitor are struggling to survive
• All of CCX’s 5 year shareholder return was during coronavirus, and some are entering bankruptcy.
CCX transformed into a
generated in FY2019 as the market reacted • CCX has a strong balance sheet and no debt and
pure-play women’s plus
positively to this change. will likely weather Covid-19 successfully.
size clothing retailer
• CCX now is focused solely on the women’s plus size • CCX has made the pivot to ecommerce, a necessary pivot
clothing segment, and no longer has any brands that to survive in the modern clothing retail space.
are weighing down the bottom line. Can CCX continue to grow faster than the industry?
• As brick-and-mortar retail sales decline, CCX has a • CCX is positioned to capture growth through both its
strong effort to expand ecommerce operations stores in Australia and New Zealand and ecommerce
• Launched various features, such as 24hr live channels.
chat, and improved fulfilment capabilities. • CCX has a strong customer base.
CCX has invested in
• Acquired ecommerce business of major • Low barriers to entry in the industry, especially online,
ecommerce
American player Avenue. raise concerns over whether they can capture new
• Ecommerce revenue now 53% of sales whereas it was growth.
just 6.5% of FY2015 sales. Is CCX poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Ecommerce revenue is also higher margin. • CCX has a strong ecommerce business and reputation in
the industry.
• CCX sees opportunity for international expansion
through ecommerce and will enable CCX to test new • But Covid-19 is an existential threat to their entire brick-
CCX has a runway for products and concepts given the “infinite store size.” and-mortar presence, which is still 47% of sales.
growth • Low barriers to entry in the industry, especially online.
• CCX can likely acquire American brands as many are
entering bankruptcy. • CCX trades at 28x earnings, a premium to the market.
567
Elizabeth DeSouza
383%
5 Year TSR
AIM:GAMA
Rank: 92/104
568
Gamma Communications Overview
Gamma Communications plc, headquartered in Newbury,
United Kingdom, provides communications and software
services such as collaboration, inbound call control, network
services, and enabling services to businesses. 2020 15.8x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 9.9x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x
NTM P/E 18.23x 26.31x Z
Revenue £191.8M £328.9M
569
Gamma Communications Business Model
• Unified Communications GAMA provides business 4.6%
as a Service (UCaaS) communication services to the UK
• Unified communications and Dutch markets 25.4%
products such as • UK Indirect segment supplies 70.0%
messaging, video calling, GAMA solutions to channel
and instant conference partners
services and • UK Direct segment looks to UK Indirect UK Direct Overseas
Telecom • Business-only mobile contract its services with

Services service enterprises, mid markets, and the Sales by Product1
• SIP trunking service 5.9% 0.4%
public sector 13.9%
gives businesses a more 11.5%
resilient and cost • Overseas segment consists of sales
effective phone service made in the Netherlands made by
8.8%
• Broadband, ethernet, DX Groep B.V. and its subsidiaries
and advanced network • Main product is voice traffic, from 59.5%
services which revenue is derived from Traditional Prodcts & Services Growth Products & Services
channel partners & carriers Mid-markets Enterprise
Public sector The Loop
• Growth products derive income
from IP voice traffic and rental
income from SIP trunks and other
GAMA is a capital light business.
data products
1Revenue shown by product market for UK Direct and UK indirect segments. Overseas revenue segment is not reported with any further specification 570
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Gamma Communications Competitive Analysis High Threat
Diversified What’s Changed in

the Industry
Telecommunication
Services
• Growth of wireless
The players in this industry include technology and
Alternative Carriers, communications • Spectrum scarcity means a • Breach in data security decline of physical
providers, and high-density data finite number of could negatively impact connectivity
• GAMA provides channel
transmission service providers. companies can operate GAMA reputation and
partners with Gamma • Launch of 5G data
Companies provide communications cellular or PCS services commercial position.
Academy and Gamma services and
and data services using high bandwidth within a specific Fines could also be
Accelerate, their training unlimited data
or fiber optic cable networks. geographic location and enforced should GAMA
and marketing platforms bundles
frequency breach GDPR
• GAMA services are flexible, • Market structure has
Market Perfect • Large service providers in • If GAMA’s network and
scalable, and secure decentralized some,
Structure Competition the general systems preform below
• GAMA customer service is moving slightly away
telecommunications market expectations,
Market Size $1.07T1 excellent, allowing from a monopoly
industry make it difficult product and revenue
customers to easily place towards an oligopoly
Industry for new entrants, but growth could be
LSD2 orders, activate services, • Covid-19 has
Growth antitrust measures negatively impacted and
prevent a monopoly from and access support easily increased the
operating costs could
forming increase importance of mobile
connectivity for
businesses
2Last
571
5 years
• GAMA was only listed on the AIM in 2014, making it a
• Launched new Collaborate and Call
newly public company in 2015 Recording platform in 2019 to
• In 2015, investors only had about a year of GAMA public expand UCaaS offerings
performance to look at • 2018 launched Connect a
• GAMA was also engaged in a pricing dispute over ”ladder fixed/mobile coverage product
pricing”, where fixed line operators billed other New Products &
• Developing a Cloud Contact Center
operators for certain toll free numbers Platforms
solution for release, aided by the
• In 2014 GAMA purchased control equipment that acquisition of Telsis
provides the core of a mobile network, but it still had not • Consistently looking to develop
launched in 2015 new products and integrated
Consensus vs Results services to meet customer needs
Return Breakdown:
• Developed a clear growth strategy in
2018 that has 4 core ideas
• Transition of their cloud telephony
position into the UCaaS
Medium and • Build on fixed and mobile telecom to
Long-term differentiate themselves from pure
Growth Strategy OTTs
• Expand geographic footprint into
Europe
• Build on digital capabilities to assure
agility and maintain competitiveness
572
Back to List
Gamma Communications Takeaways
GAMA is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
Can GAMA Sustain its Advantages?
• GAMA consistently looks for ways to • GAMA also prides itself on the quality of
distinguish itself from competitors their customer service, which can easily
• GAMA grows its industry position by be maintained (and also replicated)
GAMA is Constantly • GAMA faces a lot of competition,
anticipating industry tends and launching
Evolving new products to meet them especially as it enters into the UCaaS
• Management has a focused plan for the market
medium and long-term
Can GAMA continue to grow?
• UCaaS market is expected to grow 12%
• UCaaS market is a new avenue for growth for annually over the next 5 years,
GAMA • GAMA has a clear and well thought-out
• GAMA has cash and equivalents of £53.9M, growth plan for the next five years
which it can invest in expanding its UCaaS
offerings, and GAMA has no debt Is GAMA poised to continue to outperform?
Avenue for Growth • EPS has fairly consistently been above analyst • GAMA is well placed to whether negative
estimates over the last 5 years impacts from Covid-19 and to capitalize on
• Consistent topline growth over the last 5 years, the industry changes it causes
with revenue growing 15.4% in 2019 • With opportunity for growth and good
• Strong gross profit and EBITDA margins at management, GAMA should continue to
50.6% and 17.7% respectively for FY 2019 outperform
573
Max Schieferdecker
379%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQGS:NRC
Rank: 93/104
574
National Research Corp Overview
National Research Corporation is a leading healthcare-focused, NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple1
data collection and analytics software company based out of
Lincoln, NE.
2020 22.7x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 11.9x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x
LTM P/E 20.53x 42.28x Z
Revenue 102.34M 127.98M
1Multiple from 5/19 due to no forward multiples being available after that date 575
National Research Corp Business Model
NRC enables healthcare
Voice of the • Portfolio of solutions organizations gather crucial
Customer that collectively provide feedback from their patients
Platform a comprehensive set of 37.3% 62.7%
(VoC) data capabilities • Through the VoC platform,
NRC offers market insight
tools, patient experience
• Advice for not-for-profit
data, health risk
The hospital and health VoC Legacy Experience and TGI
management tools, and
Governance system boards of
organizational transparency
Institute directors, executives, Sales by Geography
tools, among others
(TGI) and physician
• The goal is to capture, 2.8%
leadership
interpret, and improve the
Consumer Assessment of
Healthcare Providers and
Systems (CAHPS) data that is 97.2%
required by the Centers for
Medicare and Medicaid U.S. Canada
Services (CMS)
• The majority of products NRC is a capital light business as it is a SaaS
operate as a subscription based business.
Example of a real time customer satisfaction dashboard model
576
Low Threat
Medium Threat
National Research Corp Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Healthcare Analytics

qualitative and quantitative tools to • Trend towards
• Little barriers to entry due
aid health care organizations in • Because NRC’s customers medical services
to a lack of need for
evaluating the quality of their operate in a highly political compensation
uniqueness
operations and regulated industry, cuts being tied to
• NRC already competes
to their margins due to patient outcome
with a few players that
further regulation could and quality of
provide similar services as • NRC’s biggest competitive have a negative effect on service
Market Pure they do, as well as advantage is its expansive NRC • New laws are
Structure Competition healthcare organizations’ and diverse client base
market research teams • NRC has no patents, so any requiring price
Market Size $14B1 IP/software could be stolen, transparency
• Also faces threats from
replicated, and/or sold at a from care
Industry traditional market
> 10%1 lower price without any providers, giving
Growth research firms looking to
legal ramifications the patients more
expand their offerings
purchasing power
1https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/healthcare-analytics-market-size-to-reach-usd-40-781-billion-by-2025--cagr-of-
23-55---valuates-reports-301041851.html 577
• In 2018, management led to a well
• There was not a whole lot of coverage of NRC 5 years ago, so executed recapitalization of the firm
the pure lack of knowledge of the existence of the firm that got rid of one class of stock and set
contributed to its relatively low price up a singular stock
Recapitalization
• During a recapitalization in 2014, a confusing (to the • This allowed more clarity on the
investors side, allowing them to feel
market) share class split occurred
more confident about investing in a
• This provided an excellent opportunity for stock business they knew was strong
arbitrage, but wasn’t very investor friendly
• NRC has established itself as a
consistent dividend stock
• NRC pays out a substantial amount of its
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results earnings in dividends
Consistent • Given the CEO also owns over 50%
Dividends of the shares and controls the
company, there is more incentive
for him to pay the shareholders
before reinvesting into the
company
• EBITDA margins increase by 8% due to
Substantial the reduction in material costs caused by
Margin a change in survey methodology that
Expansion relies more on the internet instead of
postage in addition to economies of scale
578
Back to List
National Research Corp Takeaways
NRC is an Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
• Their business model is mainly collecting surveys for Can NRC Sustain its Advantages?
healthcare organizations, which isn’t an extremely • It doesn’t seem like NRC is going to lose
complicated business its existing client base, as the products
• Although they have established themselves in the are well received and praised for their
NRC has no a Moat industry already, there are many other players who quality and ease of use
are actively focused on breaking in or already do
what NRC does
• There is nothing special about NRC besides the
Can NRC continue to grow?
quality of the actual product • The healthcare industry is shifting towards
quality based compensation
• NRC’s services are becoming more and
more valuable given the changing
• The saving grace for NRC is the changing dynamics environment in the industry
of health care compensation in the United States
• Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement from
commercial payers is becoming increasingly more Is NRC poised to continue to outperform?
focused on the value that was provided from the • Given so much of the large 5-year TSR has
Good Industry to be in service and not just what services were administered come from multiple expansion, and the 5-
• These regulations are making customer centric care a year revenue CAGR is unimpressive at 5.6%,
focus for many organizations, as their financial health it is unlikely that NRC will continue to
now depends on how good of a job they actually do, and outperform the market, despite the growing
feedback is helpful for that
market that it operates in
579
Owen Stimpson
377%
5 Year TSR
OM:TROAX
Rank: 94/104
580
Troax Group Overview In Swedish Krona (Kr)
Troax is a global supplier of area protection for indoor use (metal EV / NTM EBITDA
based mesh panel solutions) within the machine guarding,
warehouse partitioning and property protection market
2019
segments.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Market Cap 1.92B Kr 8.28B Kr

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x 35x
Enterprise Value 2.46B Kr 8.96B Kr
PE 5.64x 51.23x
Revenue 1.07B 1.73B
581
Troax Group Business Model
Sales by Division
TROAX manufactures 15%
and sells metal-based TROAX manufactures high-quality
Metal mesh panels for use in metal-based mesh panels.
Mesh guarding people from
62% 24%
Panels machines, partitioning • TROAX’s products are used to guard
factories, and property people from machines, to partition
protection. factors, and to protect property. Property Protection Warehouse Partitioning
Machine Guarding
• TROAX ensures its product are high-
quality and reliable:
• TROAX uses a third party
5% Sales by Geography
quality tester.
• Products undergo rigorous 15% 16%
testing and results posted
online. 11%
• TROAX has manufacturing facilities 53%

in 5 countries and sells worldwide.
TROAX mesh panels in use.
Nordics EU UK NA Rest
• Largest player in the industry.
TROAX is a high capital intensity business.
582
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Troax Group Competitive Analysis High Threat

Oligopoly /
Market
Monopolistic • Relationships
Structure
Competition with major
Market Size ≈£1.1B1 customers (i.e. • New competitor
Metal Mesh Industry Industry
manufacturers). enters market
MSD1 • Capital intensive to and undercuts
Growth • Auto industry ( a key
purchase machinery TROAX on price.
Participants manufacture and • Variety of end market) has
• TROAX is the largest player and materials. module sizes so
sell a variety of different metal slowed.
with 15% market share. products can be • Product defect
mesh products primarily for
• Next biggest competitor pieced together or failure.
use in factories and for • Product is not very
is Axelent with 6% • Increasing use of
property protection. difficult to produce and used in a
market share. robots and humans
and there are many variety of
• Remainder of the market is • New product co-operatively in
small and situations.
fractured: (i.e. made from manufacturing.
• 38% of global market independent players. new material) is
controlled by • Reputation for invented and
blacksmiths. quality and used.
• 41% controlled by small, quality testing
independent results.
competitors.
1. Q1 2020 Investor Presentation

583
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • TROAX has maintained its status as the
largest player in the industry with roughly
15% market share (2nd biggest 6% share).
• Not a very attractive industry: products are essentially • TROAX products are highest quality
commodities, low industry growth, cyclical. available and is the only major company to
TROAX is an have quality standards verified by third
industry leader
• TROAX is in a very mature industry and has minimal room for party certification company (TÜV).
growth. • TROAX products are superior to
many cheaper alternatives.
• TROAX avg revenue growth of 15% >
industry growth of 4%-6%.
• Invested to increase production capacity each
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results year since 2015.
TROAX expanded
• Expanded product line: TROAX now makes
capabilities
transparent PC panels which the company
believes is an avenue for future growth.
• TROAX maintained dominant market share in
Nordics.
• Consistently added distributors; grew
revenue outside Nordics from 82.7M to
TROAX grew
141.4M from FY2015 to FY2019.
• Acquired Folding Guard in 2017 and
expanded to US – large market and major
avenue for future growth.
584
Back to List
Troax Takeaways
TROAX is a Good Business- 3.5/5 Future Outlook
• Despite the market being largely fragmented, TROAX Can TROAX Sustain its Market Position?
is the largest major player and nearly 3x as big as the • Mature industry and TROAX has consistently been
2nd largest competitor. the leading player.
• TROAX has high-end products that are more reliable • Not much room for innovation nor is there much
TROAX is the industry
than many cheaper alternatives: incentive for a major new competitor to enter (1.1B
leader
• Safety products so customers want most total market size).
reliable product – not necessarily cheapest one • Reputation is key, and TROAX has one of the best.
(especially given low cost relative to other
costs). Can TROAX continue to grow faster than the industry?
• Maintained market share in core Nordics market. • TROAX can likely continue to capture market share by
• Grew incrementally in Europe (11.4% CAGR) and UK leveraging its reputation and quality, and by entering new
(4.44% CAGR) by adding new distributors and markets / increasing penetration in existing ones (i.e. US).
cultivating new customer relationships. • Fragmented industry and lots of opportunity for roll-up
TROAX grew • Expanded to US via acquisition of Folding Guard. Large acquisitions.
growth opportunity. Is TROAX poised to continue to outperform the market?
• US now represents 15% of sales and TROAX is • Mature industry with minimal innovation – not much
investing to expand capabilities and capture room for major growth surprises.
market share. • TROAX can likely continue to grow in a similar fashion but
will no likely no longer see return through multiple
• Mature, fragmented industry with minimal innovation –
expansion as it trades at 55x earnings (multiple also drove
TROAX can likely continue to grow through acquisitions
TROAX can likely continue last five year return).
and by leveraging their brand and reputation.
its growth trajectory • Trend towards automatization of manufacturing likely to
• Still new to US market which represents large growth
be a long-term headwind as there is less need for human
opportunity.
safety protection equipment.
585
Elizabeth DeSouza
376%
5 Year TSR
NASDAQCM:NEO
Rank: 95/104
586
NeoGenomics Inc. Overview
NeoGenomics, Inc., headquartered in Fort Myers, Florida,
operates a network of cancer-focused testing laboratories in
the United States, as well as laboratories in Switzerland and
Singapore. 2020 83.2x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 32.5x
0.0x 20.0x 40.0x 60.0x 80.0x 100.0x
NTM P/E N/A N/A Z
Revenue $99.8M $408.8M
EBITDA $6.2M $46.5M
587
NeoGenomics Inc. Business Model
Sales by Category
• Molecular and next- NEO operates cancer-focused
generation sequencing genetic testing laboratories 12.0%
testing • NEO operates in two segments:
• Diagnostic test kits Clinical and Pharma
88.0%
• NeoTYPE panels • Clinical customers include
Genetic including IHC and FISH community-based pathology Clinical Services Pharma Services
Testing tests practices, oncology groups,
• Clinical trials and hospitals, and academic centers
research Sales by Type of Payer1
• Pharma includes pharmaceutical
• Laboratory services
companies seeking testing and 18.0%
• Data interpretation
services to support their studies
services
and clinical trials 59.0%
• NEO helps biopharma customers 23.0%
develop diagnostic tests of their Medicare & other government
own and identify drug targets Commercial insurance
• NEO markets its services to Client direct billing
pathologists, oncologists,
urologists, other clinicians,
NEO is a capital intensive business, as it has
hospitals, and pharmaceutical
laboratories worldwide.
companies
1Sales by geography not given 588

Low Threat
Medium Threat
NeoGenomics Inc. Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Life Sciences Tools &
Services
The players in this industry are
• NEO has substantial
involved in drug discovery, • Lower cost and quick testing
indebtedness with an • Increased
development, and production by turnaround times is a key
competitive advantage for agreement providing $100M laboratory
providing analytical tools,
revolving credit facility, automation
instruments, consumables, supplies, • Technology requires NEO
and contract research services $100M term loan facility, and • Increased
significant R&D to • NEO invests in information $50M delayed draw term pressure to lower
develop technology, automation, and loan healthcare service
• Strict regulatory best practices to continually
• Major competitors, including costs such as
Market environment improve on this advantage
Oligopoly Quest Diagnostics, can offer laboratory testing
Structure • Relationships and • NEO is the leading provider of
lower prices, thus making • Covid-19
reputation are very Molecular and next-
Market Size $461.97B1 them more attractive to increasing
important and take generation sequencing testing customers demand for
Industry time to build • NEO can serve as a one-stop-
> 10%2 • Facing efforts by government laboratory testing
Growth shop, satisfying all oncology payers to reduce utilization and need for fast
testing needs in their and reimbursement for turnaround time
laboratory laboratory testing services
2YTD
589
• NEO’s competitors were big, well established companies • Expanded from one operating
with more expansive testing capabilities segment to two
• NEO was looking to build the company by developing a • New Pharma segment supports
high quality team of employees pharmaceutical companies with
• NEO had one operating segment, Laboratory Testing, testing in clinical trials
that delivered testing services to hospital, pathologists, • Gained market share by entering
oncologists, other clinicians, and researchers into contracts with managed care
• Net loss for 2015 of $2.5M primarily due to acquisition organizations and large hospital
costs and FISH reimbursement cuts by CMS groups
• Acquired Genoptix in 2018 and
Consensus vs Results Market Share successfully integrated it, which
Return Breakdown: Expansion helped increase revenue in 2019 by
48%
• Announced a global strategic
partnership with Pharmaceutical
Product Development, LLC in 2018
• Opened a laboratory in Singapore and
one in Switzerland
• Above industry average employee
retention rate, indicating success in
creating positive company culture
590
Back to List
NeoGenomics Inc. Takeaways
NEO is an Okay Business – 3/5 Future Outlook
Can NEO Sustain its Advantages?
• NEO’s main competitive advantage is its
• NEO operates cancer-focused testing low costs and quick turn around time,
laboratories, while its competitors have more which can be replicated by its
general testing capabilities competitors
NEO has a Niche • NEO can be a one-stop-shop and satisfy all • Tests are not proprietary
oncology testing needs in their laboratory
• Offers complete suite of cancer testing Can NEO continue to grow?
• NEO has growth potential in the pharma
services segment (had a backlog of $145M
at the start of 2020)
• Revenue has grown consistently over the last 5 • Can continue to grow geographically,
years reaching new customers with their testing
• Net income was negative until 2018, but has capabilities
been positive for the last two, showing Is NEO poised to continue to outperform?
movement in the right direction • Covid-19 could lower NEO testing volumes
Financial Growth with stay at home orders in place, thus
• Strong gross profit margin of 48.1% in FY 2019
(between 42% and 48% for the last 5 years) decreasing revenue in the short term
• EBITDA margin in line with competitors’ at • NEO has a narrow potential for continued
11.4% in FY 2019 (around 11% for the last 3 growth, and it would need to cut costs to
years) remain competitive and continue to
outperform
591
Elizabeth DeSouza
376%
5 Year TSR
XTRA:SANT
Rank: 96/104
592
S&T AG Overview
S&T AG, headquartered in Linz, Austria, develops, implements, NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
and markets IT hardware, solutions, and services primarily in
Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Eastern Europe.
2020 13.0x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 8.9x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x
NTM P/E 15.22x 29.34x Z
Revenue €470.9M €1.138B
593
S&T Business Model
Sales by Geography
SANT offers a well rounded
portfolio of technological 6.0%
• Internet of 13.0%
solutions
Things(IoT) • Business is split into 3
Services segments: IoT Solutions
• Embedded Europe, IoT Solutions
IT Services Computer America, and IT Services 81.0%
Technologies (ECT) • IT Services segment North America Europe Asia
• Hardware, software, encompasses IT services

and professional undertaken in Europe Sales by Category
services • IoT Europe focuses on the 12.6%

45.1%
development of secure and
networked solutions,
combining hardware,
middleware, and services 42.3%
• IoT America business IT Services IoT Solutions EU
activities are mainly in ECT IoT Solutions USA
• Follows a “Plan-Build-Run”
model of operation SANT is a capital moderate business as some of
its production is outsourced
594
Low Threat
Medium Threat
S&T Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
IT Consulting & Services

information technology and systems • Growth of big
integration services, including data has
information technology consulting, • Regional subsidiaries can increased the
information management services, • Faulty products could
select technology partners need for data
and commercial electronic data damage brand reputation
to create a portfolio management and
processing. • Minimal start up costs and and deter business
tailored to their region IT services
low level of regulation • SANT relies on product
• Certain internet systems • Increased use of
• Primary barriers are components manufactured
Market for airplanes have been smart phones and
Oligopoly educational experience by third parties, primarily
Structure specifically certified for tablets as a means
and ability to attract in Asia, and Covid-19 poses
Airbus, Boeing, and other to access the
Market Size $2.26T1 clients the risk of interruption of
manufacturers internet
supply chain or price
Industry • Portfolio of proprietary • Security issues
HSD2 increases
Growth technologies have become a
top priority for
customers
2YTD
595
• In 2015, SANT was a small, geographically concentrated
company that did not have much differentiation from its • Acquisition of Kontron allowed
peers SANT to add industrial computing
• Until the takeover of Kontron in 2016, S&T AG was a technologies to their portfolio
classic IT systems provider • SANT thus had computing
technologies, production
• It offered standard services like that of any other IT
Strategic environments, and enterprise IT
service provider
Acquisitions • Made additional acquisitions in
• Without clear competitive advantages, SANT did not
2019 of Kapsch CarrierCom and
seem like anything special Kapsch Public Transportation
Group
Consensus vs Results • Sales have increased as a result of
Return Breakdown: these acquisitions
• Management is committed to growing

SANT and increasing its profitability
• Plan to expand market share held by
Focused all sectors
Management • Increasing cross-selling and
Plan integrated value added by SANT
• More regular acquisitions to increase
SANT portfolio of technologies, while
growing organically
596
Back to List
S&T Takeaways
SANT is an Okay Business – 2.5/5 Future Outlook
Can SANT Sustain its Advantages?

• Low barriers to entry in the industry,
• SANT competitive advantages are weak making it more possible for competitors
• Their biggest advantage is the special to offer similar services as SANT
SANT Advantages are certification given by airplane manufactures • Patented technology
Weak • Although their technology is patented, there is
no clear indication of how their technology is Can SANT continue to grow?
better than their competitors
• SANT can continue to expand into new
geographic locations, but mainly through
acquisitions
• Acquisition strategy seems to have worked
in the past
• SANT has low gross and EBITDA margins at • SANT has €312M in cash to make
37.2% and 6.3% respectively that have only acquisitions as they arise
grown slightly over the last 5 years Is SANT poised to continue to outperform?
• SANT has had topline growth over the past 5 • Too much competition from similar service
Weak Growth years, but at a slow year to year rate of about providers
12%
• Without strong competitive advantages or a
• Growth is mostly inorganic and the opportunity
for organic growth seems low clear path for growth, it seems unlikely that
SANT will continue to outperform
597
Owen Stimpson
368%
5 Year TSR
OB:SALM
Rank: 97/104
598
SalMar Overview In Norwegian Krone (kr)
SalMar ASA is a Norwegian fish farm company and one of the EV / NTM EBITDA
world's largest producers of farmed salmon. The company's main
activities include marine-phase farming, broodfish and smolt
2019
production, processing and sale of farmed salmon.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x
PE 10.17x 21.91x
Revenue 7.30B 12.23B
EBITDA 1.7B 3.44B
599
SalMar Business Model
Production by Segment
Vertically integrated SALM is a salmon farming company.
6%
salmon farming in
Norway
Norway with 101 salmon • SALM aims to produce fish at
Farmed
farming licenses, 7 smolt lowest cost (cost leadership) by
Salmon1 30%
hatcheries, and 1 having top operational efficiency.
lumpfish facility. • Also aims to have lowest 63%
price for customers. Central Norway Northern Norway Arnarlax
Iceland’s largest
producer of farmed • SALM is vertically integrated
Arnarlax
salmon. Fully integrated controlling each stage of fish
(Iceland
with hatcheries, sea farming from smolt hatching to
Farmed Sales by Geography
farms, harvesting, and processing.
Salmon)
sales force. Owned 59% 18%
by SALM. 23%
• SALM’s in-house sales team sells
salmon globally, such as importers,
retail chains, and larger processing
Processing of SALM’s 17%
companies.
Sales and farmed salmon and sales 42%
• SALM also has processing
Processing to customers in over 50
capabilities. Asia NA Europe Norway
countries.
• Norway focused but has stake in
salmon farms in Iceland and UK. SALM is a high capital intensity business.
1. SALM’s reports Central Norway and Northern Norway salmon farming separately. 600
Low Threat
Medium Threat
SalMar Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market • Regulatory burdens: • Technological

Oligopoly
Structure need approvals to fish advantages in
Norway Salmon fish harvesting
Market Size ≈$4.02B1 at commercial scale. • Regulatory
Export Industry which improve
Industry • SALM granted change and
MSD1 yields / lower
Participants engage in range of Growth first eight political risk.
costs. • Increasing focus on
processes to enable the licenses for
production of salmon through • Understated as SALM sells 19% • Reputation and environmental
offshore fish • Plant based
farming from smolt hatching, of product to Norway reliability. impacts and
customers. farming by substitute (i.e.
to salmon farming, to Norway • Innovative: sustainability.
processing. Market only • SALM is 9th largest salmon Impossible
government. SALM opened
includes value of farmed producer in the world and 4th Foods) become
first offshore • Off-shore and on-
salmon exports from Norway. largest in Norway. more popular /
• Norwegian salmon fish farm. shore salmon
• Capital intensive to enter salmon
producers: MOWI (#1 in open fish farm / • Vertically market. farming technology
world), Lerøy (#3 in processing facility. integrated improving and
world), Grieg Seafood (minimal facilities being built.
(#6 in world). reliance on • Essentially
• Growth rates can be altered by • Specific geographies suppliers for commodity
pricing (i.e. 2019 Norway are better for salmon smolt). product.
export volume up 5% but up farming (i.e. Norway
• Economies of
6% in Norwegian Krone value). and Chile).
scale.
1. https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2019/12/05/global-salmon-production-set-to-rise-6-5-in-2019-the-highest-increase-since-2014/
601
• Offshore fish farm approved in Feb 2016
• Regulatory burdens impede growth: SALM cannot simply start (first one approved by Norway
farming more salmon – even if has the capital required. government).
• Offshore fish farm project has already absorbed 100M Kr, • World's first offshore fish farm.
has been worked on since 2012, but still has not been Offshore fish farm • Operational in 2017 (on-time and budget).
approved. launched • Preliminary results promising: not a single
• Supplier risks for smolt, feed costs (which lowered 2015 margins), delousing treatment needed (get rid of
salmon lice; and salmon is commodity so there is pricing risk as salmon lice), and strong fish growth rates
well. and quality.
• Increased salmon yields each year since

Increase in salmon FY2016.
yields • Invested in salmon farms in Iceland by
increasing share of Arnarlax.
• SALM aims to be cost leader in the farmed
salmon industry.
• Minimized supplier risk by investing 800M to
become nearly self-sufficient in smolt
Improved processes
production (built two new smolt harvesting
and lowered supplier
plants).
risk
• Salmon lice, other diseases, and feed costs
continue to be issues but SALM increased
EBIT / kg from Q4 FY2015 to Q4 FY2019 from
9.82 to 16.72 (high of 28.12 Q2 FY2017).
602
Back to List
SalMar Takeaways
SALM is a Strong Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
• SALM operates in an industry with high barriers to Can SALM Sustain its Market Position?
entry imposed by regulations. • SALM’s traditional inshore salmon farming is
SALM has a moat • Capital intensive to farm fish and only companies protected by strong regulatory barriers to entry.
operating in specific geographies (such as Norway) • One of the largest salmon farming companies in the
can compete. world with scale and tech advantages.
• SALM bought a controlling stake in Arnarlax, built two
Can SALM continue to grow faster than the industry?
new smolt harvest facilities, and built the world’s first
offshore fish farm. • SALM’s positioning is protected by regulation but that also
impedes its growth.
• SALM increased salmon output each year from FY2016
SALM invested and grew • Lice and other diseases continue to be recurring issue for
to FY2019 (decrease from 2015 to 2016 due to lice).
industry but can be more/less concentrated in specific
• Strong demand for salmon globally – while prices are areas – therefore could harm SALM disproportionately.
volatile, they have trended upwards since 2013. • Offshore site could be gateway to outperformance.
• Persistent focus on costs increased EBIT / Kg. Is SALM poised to continue to outperform the market?
• SALM has developed the world’s first offshore salmon • SALM’s core salmon farming business is strong.
farm. • However, the market justifies SALM’s premium valuation
• Goal is to reduce costs associated with disease, especially due to its offshore salmon farm and its future potential.
lice, and increase capacity. • Offshore salmon farming could be the future and a key
SALM’s runway for growth • Also reduces crowded shorelines which are also competitive advantage for SALM if its proves to lower
hinges on off-shore prime real estate for other uses (i.e. tourism). costs and disease, and increase capacity.
salmon • Project still new and technology young – uncertain • Very speculative as it is currently more costly, concerns
whether offshore farming will be the future or not over environment and fish escapes, and is unproven.
(competing against onshore farming, potential for lab Onshore farming also may prove to be better.
grown salmon, traditional inshore farming, and wild • Difficult to assess likelihood of outperformance given
salmon). speculative nature of company’s offshore farm.
603
Elizabeth DeSouza
361%
5 Year TSR
OM:VITB
Rank: 98/104
604
Vitec Overview
Vitec Software Group AB, is a Swedish software company, NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
providing vertical market software in the Nordic and Baltic
countries, the rest of Europe, and the Middle East.
2020 16.8x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 8.7x
Stock Price 45.6 SEK 202 SEK
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x
NTM P/E 17.34x 35.36x Z
Revenue 683.9M SEK 1,295M SEK
605
Vitec Business Model
1.0%
• Vertical Market VITB offers customers business- 25.0% 31.0%
Software addresses critical, proprietarily developed
the needs of any software
given business in a • Sales are made B2B
vertical market 19.0%
• Software is distributed to customers 24.0%
Vertical • Vitec offers
via a subscription model, creating a
Market standardized Sweden Denmark Finland
high number of recurring revenues
Software software that Norway Other
addresses the • Software provided deal with Sales by Category

markets shown in business management specific to 0.2% 15.7%
the Sales by each operating sector
2.5%
Category chart • Company growth is mainly achieved 30.8%
through acquisitions within the 18.7%
Nordic region
• Software in the Education segment 13.8%
4.3% 14.1%
provides reading and writing tools Auto Energy
Real Estate Finance & Insurance
for people with read/write disorders Environment Estate Agents
Education & Health Shared
• Software in the Health segment
includes cloud based medical record
management VITB is a capital light business
606
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Vitec Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Application Software

• VITB sometimes enters into • Constantly
software programs and data
• VITB has a moat- its fixed price projects that evolving to create
management to customers in all
competitors are either could result in significant more efficient
sectors
smaller and less organized losses if labor resources software
• Significant investment in
or too big to care about required exceed those solutions
R&D needed in this space
such small markets calculated at the time of the • Increased
• Some very large deal
• VITB has a decentralized concern for
Market companies in the industry,
Oligopoly management structure, • Acquisitions present a risk cyber-security
Structure but new companies still
meaning subsidiaries each in a number of areas but and protection of
have room to enter
Market Size $10.8B1 have their own carry particularly high risks customer data
management teams that linked to the assumption of • Increased need
Industry liabilities from the acquired
MSD2 oversee business, ensuring for businesses to
Growth company
high quality service to digitize their
processes
1 https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/application-software-global-market-report-2018
2
607
https://marketrealist.com/2014/07/must-know-overview-software-industry-2/
• In 2015, VITB was very small and very niche, making it an • Since 2015, VITB has made 17
intimidating investment acquisitions
• Until 2015, they had only made 6 acquisitions • The 5 acquisitions in 2019
• Acquisitions are a big part of their strategy, so having a very added about SEK 160 million in
short track record in that area made investors wary sales
• At this size, it was more likely that a big company might try to • Acquisitions also help VITB
take market share diversify their portfolio and
Profitable
thus their risk
Acquisitions • Cash flow positive, so they have
financing for future
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results acquisitions
• VITB has developed a very
clear approach to assessing
good acquisitions- all
acquisitions must directly add
to group earnings, they do not
”invest in future expectations”
EBITDA
608
Back to List
Vitec Takeaways
VITB is a Good Business – 4/5 Future Outlook
Can VITB Sustain its Advantages?
• VITB ‘s acquisitions have made it big • VITB operates in a very niche space, in a very
enough so that it is the preferred choice specific area of the world, which makes it
over its smaller, less organized competitors seem likely that its dominance in this market
• The spaces VITB operates in are too niche will continue
for big software companies to want to get • Many of their products are proprietary
VITB has a Moat involved in
• Can grow organically by reaching new Can VITB continue to grow?
customers in their preexisting operating • VITB can continue to grow geographically into
sectors through marketing and word or other parts of Europe
mouth • The Nordic region seems to be their area of
expertise, and they have not yet reached their
• In 2019 recurring revenue grew about 22%, full potential there
but of this, only around 6% was organic Is VITB poised to continue to outperform?
growth • VITB had a strong Q2 2020 earnings report, after
• VITB has consistent topline growth, but this which share prices shot up
Little to No Organic can be attributed to their acquisitions, which • EBITDA and gross margins have grown every
Growth have yet to slow down year and are forecasted to continue in this way
• However, their acquisition strategy seems to • Although the have struggled to grow organically,
be working well, and they claim to have over the growth strategy they have followed for the
100 possible targets past five years seems like it will allow VITB to
609
Owen Stimpson
361%
5 Year TSR
XTRA:IVU
Rank: 99/104
610
IVU Traffic Technologies Overview
EV / LTM EBITDA
IVU develops solutions for public passenger and goods transport,
and transport logistics worldwide. Features include resource
planning, fleet management, and billing. 2019
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x
EV / LTM Revenue 1.32 2.84x
PE 14.61x 25.42x
Revenue 58.1M 88.8M
EBITDA 6.0M 11.2M
611
IVU Traffic Technologies Business Model
Develops, installs, IVU makes comprehensive IT
maintains, and operates solutions for buses and trains.
integrated IT solutions
for buses and trains. • Customers use IVU software
Integrated IT
Products cover the to help with tasks across the Sales by Geography
solutions for
whole spectrum of planning, operation, and
buses and trains
planning, operation and quality insurance spectrum. 3%
quality assurance for • i.e.: creating
public transport and timetables, fleet 49%
railway companies. management, etc.
• IVU software can often 48%
replace many different
systems at once as it is
Germany Rest of EU Rest of World
integrated.
• IVU software’s aim is to IVU is a medium capital intensity business.

improve the quality and
efficiency of public transport.
• IVU develops the software,

installs it, and maintains it.
DB long distance train which uses IVU software
612
Low Threat
Medium Threat
IVU Traffic Technologies Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market Monopolistic
Global Transportation Structure Competition
• Contracts are long-
Management System Market Size 2.5B1 term.
Industry • System breach or
Industry • IVU’s software is
> 10%1 major system
Participants develop, Growth • Highly complex integrated and failure. • Increasing
implement, and maintain software which accomplishes
transportation software urbanisation and
• Variety of sub-industries for requires start-up multiple tasks.
systems. increasing reliance
different uses. capital to develop. • Losing a major
on public
• Many software products • Difficult to contract renewal.
• IVU has research transport.
are unbundled versions know features
of IVU’s software, which relationships with • Car use
needed universities. • Technological
is integrated. anticipated
without obsolescence.
• Largest global players include to continue
market
JDA Software, Omnitracs, • Reputation and to decline.
feedback from
Descartes, and Oracle. brand. • Contract
customers.
• IVU has strong foothold in cancellation.
native German market. • Human capital
requirements.
1. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/01/28/1976025/0/en/Global-Transportation-Management-Systems-TMS-Market-and-Transportation-
Management-Solution-Market-2020-Insights-by-Top-Players-Types-Key-Regions-Applications-Growth-Analysis-Future.html 613
• R&D as a % of sales has risen from 2% to
5% from FY2016 to FY2019.
• Technology is evolving quickly – IVU is an old player that likely will • IVU developed leading integrated rail IT
not keep up. solution – the only fully integrated product
IVU capitalized on
on the market.
• IVU has had success in German speaking markets, but skepticism trends
• Developed cloud product to capitalize on
over whether they can achieve success internationally.
SaaS trend, Pad to capitalize on tablet
trend, RealTime for apps, and various
• Logistics business revenue is flat, and has been flat for years.
products for electric busses.
• IVU’s product suite has enabled them to grow
to >80% market share in Germany for rail IT.
• German sales grown at 8% CAGR from
EPS Results
Return Breakdown: FY2015 to FY2019 to 43.7M.
• IVU recorded substantial loss due to
uncollected receivables in FY2016.
IVU grew in new and • Adapted growth strategy to focus on
existing markets adjacent European markets, especially
German speaking ones.
• Opened Vienna and Zurich
offices.
• International revenue now majority of total;
revenue grown at 14% CAGR from 26.4M in
FY2015 to 45.1M in FY2019.
Logistics business • Integrated portion of logistics business into
shuttered core business; sold election logistics business.
614
Back to List
IVU Traffic Technologies Takeaways

IVU is a High Quality Business- 4.5/5 Future Outlook
• IVU has a proprietary product in the rail IT segment – Can IVU Sustain its Market Position?
no other product on the market is fully integrated. • IVU has a moat.
• IVU has dominant >80% market share in Germany in • Long-term contracts.
IVU has a moat
an industry with high switching costs as systems are • Dominant market share in core German market.
highly embedded into customers’ operations. • High-switching costs.
• Contracts are also long-term. • Proprietary product.
Can IVU continue to grow faster than the industry?
• IVU has consistently invested in R&D and now has
strong product offerings in line with market trends: • IVU’s investment in R&D has enabled them to develop
digitization in rail, electric busses and transport, and products that can capitalize on new market trends.
mobile apps for transportation. • IVU’s customer base gives them insight into market
• Maintained market share dominance in core German needs.
IVU has invested and
grown internationally speaking markets (Austria/Germany/Switzerland) by • IVU has scale and strong human capital.
establishing new offices. Is IVU poised to continue to outperform the market?
• Focused on European markets. • Market trends show no sign of slowing down.
• Avoided contract disputes since FY2016 after • Cars are likely to used in less than 50% of journeys
strategy change. within cities by 2030.
• Rail industry still growing at steady 2.5% - and
• Recurring revenue is rising faster than sales. there is already major rail infrastructure all over
• Digitization trends, and urbanisation (which increases the world.
IVU has a runway for
demand for public transport) will likely increase TAM • IVU has strong products and the reputation to capture
growth
going forward. industry growth.
• Room for growth across Europe, and around the world. • IVU trades at a fair 25x forward earnings multiple.
615
Elizabeth DeSouza
357%
5 Year TSR
NYSE:IPHI
Rank: 100/104
616
Inphi Corporation Overview
Inphi Corporation, headquartered in Santa Clara, California,
provides high-speed analog and mixed signal semiconductor
solutions for the communications, datacenter, and computing
markets worldwide. 2020 24.4x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 13.8x
Stock Price $24.27 $110.63
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
NTM P/E 23.89x 40.01x Z
Revenue $192.7M $365.6M
EBITDA $16.0M $46.9M
617
Inphi Corporation Business Model
• Telecommunications IPHI offers high-speed, mixed
solutions carry data signal semiconductor solutions
distances of 100s to • IPHI sells products directly
1000s of kms and indirectly to OEMs Sales by Geography1
• Data center edge • Sales are made on a purchase 11.8%
interconnect solutions order basis, and IPHI does not 14.9% 45.0%
Semiconductors
deliver large amounts have long-term commitments
of data with any of its customers
• Inside data center
interconnects solutions • IPHI designs and develops its 28.3%
for cloud and products for the
China U.S. Thailand Other
enterprise customers communications and
computing markets, which
have design cycles of 2-3 years
and product life cycles of 5+
years
• IPHI works with OEMs to
design IPHI products into their
systems, so ODMs are required
to purchase IPHI products for
Inphi transimpedance amplifiers (TIAs) power the specific use IPHI is a capital intensive business.
fastest networks on the planet
1Sales by category not shown because IPHI operates as one reportable segment
618
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Inphi Corporation Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed in
the Industry
Semiconductors &
Semiconductor Equipment • IPHI has a concentrated
• Significant costs for • Development of
customer base with 2
manufacturing • IPHI employs process Internet of Things
customers accounting for
The players in this industry facilities and for technology experts, device systems expected to
about 25% of total
manufacture semiconductors, research & technologists, and circuit increase sales
revenue, and the 10
semiconductor equipment, and related development designers • Demand for
largest direct customers
products. • Major players have • Silicon photonics and III-V semiconductors has
account for 70% of
over 25% of market materials-based processes been driven by their
revenue
share models are developed in use in consumer
• Products must undergo
house electronics and the
• Need accesses to the an extensive qualification
Market latest technology to • A number of IPHI customers high demand for
Oligopoly process, that does not
Structure keep from becoming rely on them as their sole smart phones, mobile
have guaranteed sales at
obsolete supplier of semiconductor devices, and
Market Size $2.28T1 the end of it
solutions computers
• Technologies are often • Average selling price of
Industry patented • Successful research and • Covid-19 shift to
> 10%1 semiconductors generally
Growth development of new working from home
• Need highly skilled decrease over time, which
products and patent and distance learning
employees could cause a decline in
protection increasing need for
revenue and gross
bandwidth upgrades
margins
• IPHI faced competition from businesses with more • Introduced ColorZ in 2016 and began
resources for R&D shipping commercial volumes in
• Constant innovation needed in the semiconductor 2017
industry to remain competitive, and in 2015, IPHI was • ColorZ comprised 15%, 18%, and
not sure if they had adequate resource for R&D to 17% of total revenue for 2019, 2018,
and 2017 respectively
remain competitive
• Introduced 47 new products from 2014-2015 • IPHI introduced 45 new products in
Successful
2018 alone and 22 new products in
• Abandoned a project related to in process R&D and Products 2019
recorded an impairment charge of $1.8M
• IPHI fabless manufacturing strategy,
design expertise, proprietary model
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results libraries, and design methodology
allows for best possible products
• Silicon photonics and DSP design
expertise
• Acquired eSilicon in 2020, which

expanded IPHI portfolio of cloud and
telecommunications products
Strategic
• Demand for cloud and telecom
Acquisitions
products has increased as a result of
Covid-19 causing people to work
from home and use distance learning
620
Back to List
Inphi Corporation Takeaways
IPHI is a Good Business – 3.5/5 Future Outlook
Can IPHI Sustain its Advantages?
• Silicon photonics and III-V materials-based • 893 issued, allowed, and pending
processes models are developed in house, patents, with 780 issued and allow
giving IPHI a competitive advantage because patents expiring between 2020-2038
these processes have complex material and • Niche expertise and high barriers to
IPHI has Niche device interactions entry
Expertise • Deep expertise in silicon photonics (Sipho),
having developed first of its kind products Can IPHI continue to grow?
Sipho products • Covid-19 has increased the number of
• DSP design expertise on low-power and low- people working and learning from home
latency DSP designs • IPHI sees growth opportunities with the
increased demand for cloud and
telecommunication products
• Gross profit and EBITDA margins of 58.2% and • Needs for technology are constantly
12.8% respectively for FY 2019, which are in evolving
line with their competitors’
• IPHI has high losses for the last 3 years, with a Is IPHI poised to continue to outperform?
Consistent Losses net loss of $73 Million in 2019 • Increased demand for semiconductors and
• Average EPS around -1.86 for the last 3 years related products offers the opportunity for
• IPHI has only seen a positive EBIT twice in the IPHI to continue to grow
last 10 years, raising uncertainty about the • IPHI still has room for multiple expansion
company’s future
621
Owen Stimpson
354%
5 Year TSR
NasdaqGS:ENTG
Rank: 101/104
622
Entegris Overview
Entegris, Inc. is a provider of products and systems that purify, EV / NTM EBITDA
protect, and transport critical materials used in the
semiconductor device fabrication process. Entegris operates out
2019
of its headquarters in Billerica, Massachusetts.
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Market Cap $2.04B $8.41B

0x 5x 10x 15x 20x 25x
PE 17.27x 31.83x
Revenue 1.08B 1.59B
623
Entegris Business Model
High-performance and
Specialty high-purity process ENTG is a semiconductor 28% 33%
Chemicals and chemistries, gases, and materials solutions business.
Engineered materials, and safe
Materials delivery systems to • ENTG provides speciality
(SECM) support semiconductor materials and chemicals used in
manufacturing. the manufacturing of 39%
semiconductors. SECM MC AMH
Solutions to filter and
Micro- purify critical liquid • ENTG also provides solutions to
contamination chemistries and gases help companies transport, Sales by Geography
Control used in semiconductor protect, and use these materials.
19%
(MC) manufacturing
processes. • ENTG provides a broad range of
products and services – several 49% 24%
Solutions to monitor,
Advanced thousand products sold.
protect, transport, and
Materials
deliver critical liquid 8%
Handling • Manufacturing facilities across
chemistries, wafers and Taiwan NA EU Rest of Asia
(AMH) NA and Asia; global customer
other substrates.
base.
ENTG is a high capital intensity business.
624
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Entegris Competitive Analysis High Threat

Market Monopolistic • Range of

Structure Competition products: ENTG
Semiconductor • Customer
• High technological sells thousands concentration:
materials industry Market Size ≈52.37B1 expertise required. of products top ten • Increased
Industry • Capital enabling their digitization and need
MSD1 customers 43%
Growth intensive to customers to for semi-conductors
Participants develop, of sales.
establish spend less time by rise of IoT, AI, 5G,
manufacture, and sell • Few competitors that offer
facilities / buy sourcing. etc.
materials used in the same range of products as • Materials
production of semiconductors. ENTG (most focus on few equipment.
sourcing: some
products or specific • High human • Reputation and • Semiconductors have
materials
geographies). capital relationships gotten more
obtained from
• ENTG claims “there are requirements. with customers. advanced and
single supplier.
no global competitors smaller (atomic level
that compete across the manufacturing
• Patents: ENTG has • Technology:
full range of products” • Technological
2,330 active patents ENTG has over required in many
• Key competitors include: Pall obsolesce.
and 1,040 pending 557M of sunk cases).
Corporation, , Shin-Etsu
patents. R&D in past five
Polymer, and Gemu Vaulves, • Product defect.
among others. years alone.
1. https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/semiconductor-materials-market
625
The Bear Thesis Five Years Ago: • Trend towards smaller, more advanced
• Roughly 20% of revenue is driven by IDM capex – and Q1 2025 had chips increased demand for ENTG
the worst sequential decline for the semiconductor industry since products
2009.
• MC segment grew at 20% CAGR
• Unit demand seems to be peaking as well, and Gartner has
from 437M in revenue FY2017 to
reduced semiconductor growth estimates to 2.2% from
4.0%. 634M in FY2019.
• Also highest margin segment
Industry changes at 33% operating margin.
• ENTG is valued at a premium to peers.
were positive and
ENTG grew • Chip demand increased due to “fourth
• Poor cash conversion: 232M FY2015 EBITDA but just 79M levered industrial revolution” trends, such as 5G.
free cash flow.
• ENTG consistently pursued accretive
acquisitions totalling 1.6B over past six
years.
• Grew product offering (a
competitive advantage) and found
operational synergies.
• ENTG consistent above average industry
performance over past five years justified its
Justified multiple premium multiple.
• NTM EBITDA multiple expanded to 19.8x.
• ENTG has opted to consistently invest in
ENTG invested in expanding their capacity and in acquisitions
growth which has continued to depress their cash
flow conversion but enabled their growth.
626
Back to List
Entegris Takeaways
ENTG is a Good Business- 4/5 Future Outlook
• ENTG operates in a highly specialized industry with Can ENTG Sustain its Market Position?
high technological barriers to entry: • ENTG has a moat due to its patents, and the
• Patents. technological barriers to entry.
• Start-up capital. • ENTG unit based revenue is largely recurring and has
ENTG has a moat • Human capital. switching costs for customers who may consider
• ENTG has a global reach and thousands of products – competitors’ products.
not a model that is easily replicable by a new entrant. • ENTG’s large breadth of products and global reach is
• And if it was, ENTG has long-lasting customer not easily replicable.
relationships. Can ENTG continue to grow faster than the industry?
• ENTG’s revenue is driven by semiconductors units – • ENTG has grown faster than the industry each year since
enabling them to avoid the cyclicality of capex in the 2017.
industry. • ENTG’s specialized products play into industry trends of
• Leveraged high-quality products and breadth of product smaller, more advanced semiconductors.
offering to expand business, particularly MC segment • Opportunity for future acquisitions.
ENTG grew which grew at 20% CAGR. Is ENTG poised to continue to outperform the market?
• MC segment most exposed to trends towards • ENTG is likely poised to protect its market share, and
more advanced and smaller semiconductors. grow through acquisitions and by capturing new market
• Pursued acquisitions that expanded product reach and share as the industry evolves.
customer relationships, and enabled ENTG to grow. • But, in order to be competitive, ENTG needs to stay
• Trends, such as 5G and IoT, that enabled MC segment to at the forefront of technology – and there is the
grow likely to continue. chance they fall behind.
ENTG has a runway for
growth • Many locally based competitors focused on one or a few • Also, ENTG trades at the highest NTM EBITDA multiple in
products – future opportunities for ENTG acquisitions. the last 10 years and at a steep premium to peers.
627
Max Schieferdecker
354%
5 Year TSR
OB:NRS
Rank: 102/104
628
Norway Royal Salmon Overview
Norway Royal Salmon is a salmon farming company based in NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
Trondheim, Norway, that provides fresh and frozen salmon to
55 countries around the world.
2020 16.7x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 8.7x
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x
Market Cap 2.78B NOK 10.42B NOK
Enterprise Value 3.43B NOK 10.88B NOK
NTM P/E 11.85x 16.40x Z
Revenue 3.21B 5.59B
EBITDA 277.78M 455.05M
629
Norway Royal Salmon Business Model
• Fresh and frozen salmon Sales by Geography
NRS provides salmon to people
Salmon that are farmed from around the world
their licensed waters 0.2%
• In 2019, 30,509 tons of 18.0% 13.1%
salmon was harvested
• This was accomplished
under their 35,035 tons
of maximum allowed 6.0%
biomass (MAB)
• Mainly operates their farms
in the northern region of
Norway
62.7%
• These areas are better
based off the “traffic
light system” that the
Norwegian government Norway Western Europe Easern Europs Asia & ME Other
put in place
A few of the salmon farms of NRS • Offers higher MAB
NRS is a capital intensive business given the large
growth opportunities
amounts of machinery and property needed to operate
630
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Norway Royal Salmon Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Fish Farming
The players in this industry farm, • Commodity risk given the

breed, and harvest fish in water status of salmon
environments and then sell them to • Biological risks regarding
distributors. the health of
• Government regulations underdeveloped smolts
and licensing for certain • Attempting to increase
areas are necessary in • Large size of operations operational efficiencies may • Salmon has
Market Pure order to operate • Key areas are harm the quality of the become more
Structure Competition • High up-front costs give licensed to NRS product popular
the established players a • Regulatory risks may
Market Size $297B1
financial advantage inhibit expansion and/or
Industry increase costs
MSD1
Growth • Land-based salmon farms
may take away demand in
the future
1https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/fish-farming-market
631
• In October 2016, though the purchase of
• Revenue was down y/y in 2014 as a result of Norwegian 50% of Arctic Fish for €29m, NRS
salmon’s largest market at the time, Russia, stopping all expanded their salmon farming
imports of salmon from Norway and the EU Expansion operations into Iceland
• The instability of the salmon market was worrisome given the into New • Arctic Fish was one of the largest of 6
Markets companies with farming licenses in
commodity status that it has
Iceland, so the investment laid the
ground for substantial expansion into
relatively untapped waters

• In September 2019, NRS announced the
divestiture of their southern region for
€124m
• This was part of their larger strategy
to concentrate and strengthen their
Important
position in Northern Norway and
Divestment Iceland
• The margins and sales of this segment had
been steadily declining over the years and
were significantly smaller at the time of
the sale
632
Back to List
Norway Royal Salmon Takeaways
NRS is an Average Business – 2.5/5 Future Outlook
• There are no real differentiating factors between NRS Can NRS Sustain its Advantages?
and its competitors • Although their advantages aren’t very
• Salmon is salmon, and most of the time strong to begin with, NRS should be able
customers are just going to go with the to sustain its licensed areas to farm in
cheapest option
NRS does not have a
• However, people are still going to eat salmon Can NRS continue to grow?
Strong Moat
worldwide, and there has been an increase in demand
• Given the commodity status of salmon,
over the past few years
NRS doesn’t have a whole lot of control
• NRS helps fill that demand and thus earns a over their pricing
sizable amount of revenue given its relatively
• Even if the demand for salmon continues
large market share
to increase into the future, there is no
• While the 12% CAGR over the past 5 years is decent, certainty that NRS would be able to
Mediocre Financial already low margins have decreased even more capitalize off of that
Profile • EPS has been extremely inconsistent over the past 5
years, which shows a lack of a clear path for growth Is NRS poised to continue to outperform?
• There is uncertainty surrounding the future of • Given the high multiples relative to peers,
salmon farming, as there has been a lot of investment uncertainty surrounding the ability for NRS
into land-based salmon farms in recent years to continue to grow and around the future
Industry Uncertainty • This could change the requirements to be of the salmon farming industry in general, it
competitive and force NRS to invest heavily is unlikely that NRS will continue to
into PPE that would take a while to see a
outperform in the future
return on
633
Owen Stimpson
352%
5 Year TSR
SWX:ALSN
Rank: 103/104
634
ALSO Holdings Overview In Swiss Francs (CHf)
EV / NTM EBITDA
ALSN is an IT logistics company. ALSN has three core segments:
supply (delivering hardware), solutions (setting up IT software),
and service (IT maintenance). 2019
Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

2015
Stock Price 56.25 CHf 231 CHf
Market Cap 721.17 CHf 2.96B CHf

0x 5x 10x 15x
Enterprise Value 964.61M CHf 3.19B CHf
PE 10.44x 23.17x
Revenue 8.38B 9.87B
635
ALSO Holdings Business Model
ALSN is a middleman in the IT 18%
Wholesales business for industry.
Supply 4%
IT equipment.
• ALSN buys IT hardware from
manufacturers and sells it to buyers
(retailers, SMB resellers, etc.) who 78%
then sell it to the final customers
Project based support (consumers and companies). Supply Solutions Service
services for IT
equipment resellers and • ALSN also provides support services
Solutions
SMBs on questions of IT to their buyer customers to help Sales by Geography
infrastructure and them optimize their IT 9%
design. infrastructure and design.
39%
• Cloud marketplace is replica of IT
wholesale business except its for the 40%
ALSO cloud marketplace: cloud – marketplace that brings 12%
Cloud marketplace that together buyers (retailers, SMB
Service resellers, etc) and cloud software Switzerland Germany Netherlands Other
helps IT resellers sell
cloud services. suppliers (i.e. Microsoft, Oracle, etc.).
ALSN is a high capital intensity business.
636
Low Threat
Medium Threat
ALSO Holdings Competitive Analysis High Threat

• High capital intensity • Reputation:

Computer & Market and working capital ALSN is known • Working capital
Oligopoly
Packaged Software Structure requirements. as a reliable issues.
Wholesaling Market Size ≈$268.9B1 • Need to be partner for both
very efficient buyers and • Major logistics
In the Computer and Packaged Industry
LSD1 to maintain suppliers. failure.
Software Wholesaling industry Growth
solvency. • Efficiency: ALSN
participants engage in
• Synex is major American player • Need buyers has a high-tech, • Companies trending
wholesaling computers, • Data breach.
but operates primarily in the US (resellers, retailers, efficient logistics away from buying
computer peripheral
with more limited European etc.) to get suppliers capabilities to hardware and
equipment, and computer
presence. (manufacturer, manage WC. • ALSN is cut out relying more on SaaS
software. Manufacturers' sales
software developers, • Quantity of from value chain and Cloud software
branches and offices with
• ALSN is leading player in etc.) and vice versa. relationships: as their buyers products instead.
wholesale functions are
Europe. and suppliers
included within this industry. • Concern is not ALSN’s business
barriers to entry but is strengthened interact directly.
• ALSN has presence across
whether ALSN will by the large
Europe (23 countries) ; Also
still be needed in the amount of • Less demand for
Cloud marketplace available in
additional 64 countries around IT value chain (their buyers and IT resellers (key
the world. suppliers and buyers suppliers they buyer group).
interacting directly). have.
1. US only; IBIS world.
637
• Core Supply business remains working
• Not a very attractive business: low margins (1.8% EBITDA capital intensive, low ≈1.8% EBITDA
margins), high working capital requirements, and transactional margin, and transactional.
revenue stream. • But ALSN maintained Supply business and
• Barely cash flow positive. Expanded business built out adjacent new business lines:
lines Solutions and Services.
• Minimal runway for improvements to core business.
• Services: low capital intensity and higher
margin.
• Minimal avenues for future growth.
• ICT industry is mature. • Solutions: low capital intensity, high
margin, and recurring revenue.
• Optimized WC: cash conversion cycle reduced

Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results Improved core by 4 days from 28days to 24 days.
business • Suppliers nearly doubled from 350 in FY2015
to 660 in FY2019.
• Service business grew at 19.14% CAGR from

211M in FY2015 to 427M in FY2019.
• And revenue is recurring.
• ALSN expanded its reach outside
ALSN grew internationally: grew revenue outside core
Germany, Switzerland, and Netherlands
markets from 2.48B to 4.16B.
• But maintained (and grew market
share) in core markets as well.
638
Back to List
ALSO Holdings Takeaways

ALSN is a Ok Business- 2.5/5 Future Outlook
• ALSN is a leading IT wholesaler in Europe with a wide Can ALSN Sustain its Market Position?
supplier and buyer base. • ALSN is a leading player in the IT wholesale business
• Despite low margins and high capital intensity, ALSN in Europe, especially in its core markets.
ALSN has a strong has consistently grown the top and bottom lines and • New entrants in the IT wholesale space are hindered
position in a difficult mitigated problems that could have arisen from WC. by capital requirements, and the need to develop
industry many relationships with buyer and suppliers.
• Also improved WC efficiency.
• ALSN has developed a moat due to the quantity of • Long-term need for wholesalers, at all, in the industry
relationships it has with buyers and suppliers. is less certain (especially with trends towards cloud).
• ALSN maintained and grew its market share in its core Can ALSN continue to grow faster than the industry?
markets of Germany, Switzerland, and the Netherlands. • ALSN’s cloud business could propel ALSN to grow faster
• Also captured market share across Europe. than the industry.
ALSN grew
• Grew its solutions and segments business which are • But if that happens, its likely core Supply business
more attractive in terms of margins. will shrink.
• Solutions business also recurring revenue.
• ALSN Also Cloud Marketplace taps into industry trends Is ALSN poised to continue to outperform the market?
towards cloud software for businesses. • The bear thesis five years ago is essentially the same: poor
• But on same token, could potentially be a long- business quality and minimal room for growth – but ALSN
ALSN has a potential outperformed.
term headwind for core Supplies hardware
runway for growth • I think underperformance is more likely given that ALSN
segment.
• ALSN has been resilient to date but their position in the now trades at 22x earnings or roughly double its 2015
value chain is the least stable of all participants. multiple.
639
Max Schieferdecker
350%
5 Year TSR
OB:GSF
Rank: 104/104
640
Grieg Seafood Overview
Grieg Seafood is the 8th largest salmon producer in the world NTM EV/EBITDA Multiple
based in Bergen, Norway, that farms and sells premium
salmon. 2020 9.7x
Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

2015 7.3x
0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x 12.0x
Market Cap 3.09B NOK 12.29B NOK
Enterprise Value 4.91B NOK 15.72B NOK
NTM P/E 10.47x 14.53x Z
Revenue 4.59B 8.30B
EBITDA 285.72M 1.27B
641
Grieg Seafood Business Model
Primary Products Context 0.6% Sales by Category
1.6%
GSF produces high quality 5.2%
• Fresh and frozen salmon
Salmon that are farmed from salmon for consumption 0.0%
their licensed waters • 3 main farming operations of
the coasts of Norway, Scotland,
and Canada 92.6%
• It operates in the breeding
Fresh Whole Fish Frozen Whole Fish Fresh Processed Fish
(smolt1 production), freshwater Frozen Processed Fish Other
farming, seawater farming,
harvesting, and sales & Sales by Geography
4.6%
distribution segments of the
supply chain 16.0%
• Sales & distribution are 5.3%
53.0%
handled by their
subsidiary, Ocean Quality 9.5%
• A lot of focus is put on the 11.8%
sustainability and health of the
EU UK USA Canada Asia Other
fish from the beginning of the
process
Some cans of Grieg processed salmon GSF is a capital intensive business due to the high
• Leads to high quality amounts of PPE needed to operate
salmon
1Young salmon that have not yet fully developed into adult salmon 642
Low Threat
Medium Threat
Grieg Seafood Competitive Analysis High Threat
What’s Changed
in the Industry
Fish Farming
The players in this industry farm, • Commodity risk given the

breed, and harvest fish in water status of salmon
environments and then sell them to • Biological risks regarding
distributors. the health of
• Superior quality
• Government regulations underdeveloped smolts
and licensing for certain • North American farming
• Attempting to increase
areas are necessary in operations allows for close
operational efficiencies may • Salmon has
order to operate proximity to the fast-
Market Pure harm the quality of the become more
growing American market
Structure Competition • High up-front costs give product popular
the established players a • Dedicated sales and
Market Size $297B1 • Regulatory risks may
financial advantage distribution company
inhibit expansion and/or
(Ocean Quality)
Industry increase costs
MSD1
Growth • Land-based salmon farms
may take away demand in
the future
1https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/fish-farming-market
643
• Inconsistencies between top and bottom line y/y growth

• As demand for salmon increased
leading up to 2015 left investors unclear about future
around the world as a result of
growth trajectory society as a whole becoming
• Russia, a decent sized market for GSF usually more health conscious, more
representing ~10% of total sales, suspended trade with operational efficiencies were
the EU, and thus Norway, towards the end of 2014 recognized
• Received many new licenses
that allowed them to expand
the capacity of their
Return Breakdown: Consensus vs Results More operations
Consistencies
• Strong growth and biological
improvements were realized
due to the economies of scale
that became more present
• Fixed price contracts were also
implemented more which helped
mitigate the effect of the
fluctuations in the commodity
pricing of salmon
644
Back to List
Grieg Seafood Takeaways
GSF is an Average Business – 2.5/5 Future Outlook
• Although the quality of the salmon is supposedly Can GSF Sustain its Advantages?
higher than its competition, at the end of the day, • It is unlikely that GSF will divest Ocean
salmon is just salmon to most people Quality or its North American locations
• Targeting the higher-end customers may not anytime in the near future
GSF does not have a be a foolproof plan given the relative lack of • GSF has the reputation for being a high
Strong Moat control individual companies have over their quality producer, as many high-end
prices restaurants around the world use their
• There has been a surge in demand recently, however salmon
• America and China in particular have seen
large increases in consumption numbers Can GSF continue to grow?
• Given the heavy investment into both the
• Expansion opportunities downstream will allow GSF to
recent Newfoundland acquisition and the
further vertically integrate and increase their margins
steps it is taking to expand downstream in
• Management has specifically mentioned
moving into the value-added processing level
the future, it is likely that GSF will continue
of the supply chain to grow
Growth Opportunities • M&A was also mentioned as a focal point in the future
Is GSF poised to continue to outperform?
are in the Pipeline as a way to increase capacity by gaining more licenses
and thus more farming area • Given the high risks and volatility that is
• An acquisition of a company in Newfoundland, present in the industry, it is not very likely
Canada, recently took place already as an that GSF will grow at the same rate it has in
example of this, and there will likely more in the the past and/or the stock will experience
future significant multiple expansion
645

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The Makings of a Multibagger

An Analysis of the Best Performing Stocks over the Past 5 Years

The Alta Fox 2020 Summer Intern Class Project:

Criteria for Selection

1. Only stocks domiciled in North America, Western Europe , and Australia.

2. All sectors excluding energy, materials, and financials.

4. Positive trailing 12-month EBITDA.

For each stock we did the following:

Business and Industry

Industry Representation Over-Represented

Industry Breakdown Relative to Investable Universe1

Geographic Representation Over-Represented

We looked at companies headquartered in North America, Western Europe, and Australia.

Continental Breakdown Country Breakdown Relative to Investable Universe1

Stock Exchange Representation

12.50%2 3.85%4 0.96%

Size of the Companies

Company Sizes Investors need to be willing to look at small,

What Caused This Set of Companies to Outperform So Much?

What Drove the Returns

TSR Drivers (as % of TSR)

50.00% 44.78% However, the medians tell a different story: EBITDA

20.00% In general, multiple expansion and EBITDA growth

1. Revenue was used when EBITDA was negative 13

Revenue and EBITDA Growth

Revenue Growth % Breakdown Revenue CAGR Quartiles

EBITDA Growth % Breakdown EBITDA CAGR Quartiles

What Drove EBITDA / Revenue Growth 1/2

Companies often made Transformative New products Major New Contracts

EOS launched new Remote Weapon

19% Companies Benefited from COVID-19 Related Demand

Percentage of companies who not

What Drove EBITDA / Revenue Growth 2/2

Companies leveraged barriers to entry which Companies leveraged their competitive

42% Example Barriers To Entry: Example Competitive Advantages:

1. Regulatory barriers (i.e. FDA

2015 2020 Change 2015 2020 Change 2015 2020 Change

• Companies in the UK, Sweden, Germany, Norway, and Australia

• Companies in technology and healthcare industries

• Companies with market caps below $2B

Statistic 06/08/2015 06/08/2020

Market Cap $6.88M $705.67M

Shares Outstanding 31.27M 33.19

EV / LTM Revenue 0.62x 13.46x

EV / NTM EBITDA NA 28.50x

Statistic FY 2015 FY 2019

Revenue 11.6M 45.5M

EBITDA (2.1M) 11.8M

• Products designed for home- Zynex Medical

Zynex’s NeuroMove that is primarily used for • Help reduce reliance on

Competitive What’s Changed in

1. Applied 4.6% growth to 2018 figures; https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-electrotherapy-system-market-to-surpass-us-1-3-billion-by-2027--coherent-

Statistic 6/8/15 6/8/20

Enterprise Value €1.53M €208.49M

Shares Outstanding 1.78M 1.93M

EV / LTM Revenue 0.44x 9.21x

EV / LTM EBITDA 188.56x 102.20x

LTM P/E 3.57x 226.58x Z

Statistic FY 2015 FY 20191