WED 14 OCT 2020

Top Story:

Banking Sector: S&P flags risks on Philippine banks (AS OF OCT 13, 2020)
INDICES

Close Points % YTD%

Other News: PSEi 5,923.23 -13.82 -0.23 -24.21
All Shares 3,569.14 -2.68 -0.08 -23.24
Financials 1,160.71 -1.70 -0.15 -37.72
HOME: HOME opens new store in Las Pinas Holding Firms 6,116.74 -47.79 -0.78 -19.43
Economy: IMF further slashes GDP forecast for the Philippines Industrial 7,974.32 0.18 0.00 -17.24
Mining & Oil 6,564.44 -201.56 -2.98 -18.88
Property 2,756.78 2.06 0.07 -33.64
Services 1,469.05 7.28 0.50 -4.05
COVID-19 Update
Dow Jones 28,837.52 251 0.88 1.05
Total Cases Total Deaths Total Recoveries S&P 500 3,534.22 57.09 1.64 9.39
Nasdaq 11,876.26 296.32 2.56 32.36
Philippines 344,713 (+1,990) 6,372 (+40) 293,383 (+327)

USA 8,087,865 (+50,108) 220,802 (+791) 5,221,056 (+36,492) INDEX GAINERS

Ticker Company Price %
Worldwide 38,345,104 (+316,107) 1,090,148 (+5,056) 28,834,364 (+246,637) GTCAP GT Capital Hldgs Inc 404.00 4.34
RRHI Robinsons Retail Hldgs Inc 66.30 3.19
BLOOM Bloomberg Resorts 7.41 2.92
AGI Alliance Global Inc 7.21 2.12

Market Summary: LTG LT Group Inc 9.16 1.78

The local equities market continued to trade sideways as investors await economic recovery INDEX LOSERS
Ticker Company Price %
indicators.
MPI Metro Pacific Inv Corp 3.76 -2.84
SM SM Investments Corp 884.00 -1.78
The PSEi slid 13.82 points or 0.23% to close at 5,923.23. The main drags were MPI (-2.84%), RLC Robinsons Land Corp 14.64 -1.35

SM (-1.78%), RLC (-1.35%), AC (-0.99%), and AP (-0.94%). On the other hand, the top movers AC Ayala Corporation 700.00 -0.99
AP Aboitiz Power Corp 26.40 -0.94
were GTCAP (+4.34%), RRHI (+3.19%), BLOOM (+2.92%), AGI (+2.12%), and LTG (+1.78%).

Value turnover declined to Php5.0Bil from Php5.3Bil in the previous session. Meanwhile, TOP 5 MOST ACTIVE STOCKS
Ticker Company Turnover
foreigners remained net sellers, disposing Php702.1Mil worth of shares. 
ICT Int'l Container Term 268,172,900
ALI Ayala Land Inc 261,466,800
TEL PLDT Inc 244,765,000
MPI Metro Pacific Inv Corp 233,651,000
MBT Metrobank 142,641,300

Disclaimer: All content provided in COL Reports are meant to be read in the COL Financial website. Accuracy and completeness of content cannot be guaranteed if reports are viewed outside of the
COL Financial website as these may be subject to tampering or unauthorized alterations.
 DAILY NOTES I PHILIPPINE EQUITY RESEARCH

WED 14 OCT 2020

Top Story:

John Martin Luciano, CFA Banking Sector: S&P flags risks on Philippine banks
Senior Research Analyst
S&P Global Ratings said the risk of credit losses increasing for Philippine banks is higher
than expected amid the economic slowdown. The global debt watcher said that the
economic risk trend for banks operating in the Philippines has turned to negative from
stable as the economy is expected to contract by 9.5% this year. Weak economic activity
and bleak employment conditions will hit the asset quality, earnings and capitalization
of banks over the next two years. Credit costs may stay elevated at 1.5-2.0% in 2020
and 2021, while non-performing assets may rise to 5.5- 7.5% from 4.6% in end-August.
Meanwhile, S&P also downgraded the outlook for BPI and SECB to negative from stable,
suggesting a possible downgrade could occur within six months to two years. Note that
the lenders’ ratings from S&P are currently at “BBB+/A2” and “BBB-/A3,” respectively.
(Source: Businessworld, Philstar)

Other News:

Research Analysts HOME: HOME opens new store in Las Pinas

John Martin Luciano, CFA HOME has opened a new retail store in Las Pinas City to tap into the builders’ market,
Frances Rolfa Nicolas
bringing their total store network to 47 stores. The AllHome Builder’s Centre Evia, which
Justin Richmond Cheng
covers almost 2,500 sq.m., offers more items for builders and contractors such as a new
Adrian Alexander Yu
selection of tile designs, modern sanitary wares, hardware items, and comprehensive
Kerwin Malcolm Chan
building materials. The company mentioned that they want to ride on the increase in
construction projects in Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas. Recall that HOME is planning on
having 49 stores by the end of the year. The company is also looking at opening another
6 to 10 more stores next year. (Source: Bworldonline)

COL Financial Group, Inc. 2

 DAILY NOTES I PHILIPPINE EQUITY RESEARCH

WED 14 OCT 2020

Economy: IMF further slashes GDP forecast for the Philippines

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) further slashed its 2020 GDP contraction forecast
for the Philippines to 8.3% from 3.6% in June. The country had the worst GDP outlook
among the top five ASEAN economies, lagging behind Thailand (-7.1%), Malaysia (-6.0%),
and Indonesia (-1.5%), with only Vietnam expected to post growth this year at 1.6%. The
IMF noted that despite a somewhat softer global contraction expected in October, weak
public confidence and low remittances in the Philippines as a result of the pandemic are
expected to continue weighing on private investment and consumption. For 2021, the
IMF sees the Philippine economy growing by 7.4%, faster than the 6.8% estimate given
in June. The higher 2021 growth forecast is mainly due to an expected rebound in pent-
up demand from the relaxation of quarantine measures and continued effects of the
policy easing in 2020. The IMF’s baseline projections assume that social distancing will
continue into 2021 until vaccine coverage expands and COVID-19 therapies improve.
(source: Businessworld)

Changes in Shareholdings

Date of Acquired or Price per

Stock Volume Person (Designation)
Disclosure Disposed share
Maria Cristina C. Gotianun
13-Oct SCC 227,000 A 10.96
(Director, President & COO)
10,000 4.01 Necisto Y. Sytengco, II
14-Oct SBS 10,000 A 4.02 (Vice Chairman, SVP Marketing Operations,
80,000 4.05 & Assistant Treasurer)
Source: PSE

COL Financial Group, Inc. 3

 DAILY NOTES I PHILIPPINE EQUITY RESEARCH

WED 14 OCT 2020

I M P O R TA N T R AT ING DEFINITIONS
BUY
Stocks that have a BUY rating have attractive fundamentals and valuations based on our analysis. We expect the share price to outperform the market in the
next six to 12 months.

HOLD
Stocks that have a HOLD rating have either 1) attractive fundamentals but expensive valuations 2) attractive valuations but near-term earnings outlook might
be poor or vulnerable to numerous risks. Given the said factors, the share price of the stock may perform merely in line or underperform in the market in the
next six to twelve months.

SELL
We dislike both the valuations and fundamentals of stocks with a SELL rating. We expect the share price to underperform in the next six to12 months.

I M P O R TA N T DISC L AIM ER
Securities recommended, offered or sold by COL Financial Group, Inc. are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and said information may
be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COL’s Equity Research Department as of the date of the report and are
subject to change without prior notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of
a security. COL Financial and/or its employees not involved in the preparation of this report may have investments in securities of derivatives of the companies
mentioned in this report and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in this report.

CO L R E S EAR C H T EAM

APRIL LYNN TAN, CFA

VP & HEAD OF RESEARCH
april.tan@colfinancial.com

CHARLES WILLIAM ANG, CFA GEORGE CHING RICHARD LAÑEDA, CFA

DEPUTY HEAD OF RESEARCH SENIOR RESEARCH MANAGER SENIOR RESEARCH MANAGER
charles.ang@colfinancial.com george.ching@colfinancial.com richard.laneda@colfinancial.com

JOHN MARTIN LUCIANO, CFA FRANCES ROLFA NICOLAS JUSTIN RICHMOND CHENG
SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST RESEARCH ANALYST RESEARCH ANALYST
john.luciano@colfinancial.com rolfa.nicolas@colfinancial.com justin.cheng@colfinancial.com

ADRIAN ALEXANDER YU KERWIN MALCOLM CHAN

RESEARCH ANALYST RESEARCH ANALYST
adrian.yu@colfinancial.com kerwin.chan@colfinancial.com

CO L F IN ANC IAL G R O UP, IN C.

2402-D EAST TOWER, PHILIPPINE STOCK EXCHANGE CENTRE,
EXCHANGE ROAD, ORTIGAS CENTER, PASIG CITY
PHILIPPINES 1605
TEL NO. +632 636-5411
FAX NO. +632 635-4632
WEBSITE: www.colfinancial.com

COL Financial Group, Inc. 5