Response to the 2011 Great East

Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org
disaster
Shunichi Koshimura1 and Nobuo Shuto2
Research 1 International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku

University, Aoba 468-1, Aramaki, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, Japan

Cite this article: Koshimura S, Shuto N. 2015 2 Professor Emeritus, Tohoku University, Aoba 468-1, Aramaki,
Response to the 2011 Great East Japan
Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, Japan
Earthquake and Tsunami disaster. Phil. Trans.
R. Soc. A 373: 20140373.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0373 We revisited the lessons of the 2011 Great East Japan
Earthquake Tsunami disaster specifically on the
response and impact, and discussed the paradigm
Accepted: 28 May 2015 shift of Japan’s tsunami disaster management policies
and the perspectives for reconstruction. Revisiting
One contribution of 14 to a theme issue the modern histories of Tohoku tsunami disasters
and pre-2011 tsunami countermeasures, we clarified
‘Tsunamis: bridging science, engineering
how Japan’s coastal communities have prepared
and society’. for tsunamis. The discussion mainly focuses on
structural measures such as seawalls and breakwaters
Subject Areas: and non-structural measures of hazard map and
oceanography, civil engineering, geophysics evacuation. The responses to the 2011 event are
discussed specifically on the tsunami warning
Keywords: system and efforts to identify the tsunami impacts.
the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and The nation-wide post-tsunami survey results shed
Tsunami disaster, tsunami countermeasure, light on the mechanisms of structural destruction,
tsunami loads and structural vulnerability to inform
disaster resilience, post-disaster recovery
structural rehabilitation measures and land-use
and reconstruction planning. Remarkable paradigm shifts in designing
coastal protection and disaster mitigation measures
Author for correspondence: were introduced, leading with a new concept
Shunichi Koshimura of potential tsunami levels: Prevention (Level 1)
and Mitigation (Level 2) levels according to the
e-mail: koshimura@irides.tohoku.ac.jp
level of ‘protection’. The seawall is designed
with reference to Level 1 tsunami scenario, while
comprehensive disaster management measures
should refer to Level 2 tsunami for protection of
human lives and reducing potential losses and
damage. Throughout the case study in Sendai city,
the proposed reconstruction plan was evaluated from
the tsunami engineering point of view to discuss
how the post 2011 paradigm was implemented in
coastal communities for future disaster mitigation.

2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
 The analysis revealed that Sendai city’s multiple protection measures for Level 2 tsunami will 2
contribute to a substantial reduction of the tsunami inundation zone and potential losses,
combined with an effective tsunami evacuation plan.

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1. Introduction
On 11 March, 2011 a devastating tsunami triggered by a Mw 9.0 earthquake struck the
northern Pacific coast of Japan, and completely destroyed many coastal communities, particularly
in Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures. The tsunami flooded 561 km2 of land along
the Pacific coast of Japan (Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, www.gsi.go.jp) and
affected 602 200 residents and killed 3.5% of them (Statistics Bureau of Japan, www.stat.
go.jp/info/shinsai/index.htm).
Several nuclear power plant facilities were affected by the strong ground motions and great
tsunamis: the Tokai, Higashi Dori, Onagawa and Fukushima Dai-ichi and Dai-ni plants. An
unexpectedly large tsunami 14 m high attacked the Fukushima Dai-ichi facilities and caused the
loss of the emergency diesel generators that had been working in the situation of no off-site power
available [1]. Consequently, all the instrumentation and control systems at reactors 1–4 were lost,
and a series of explosions occurred, causing extensive radioactive contamination. The geological
and historical evidence of irregularly recurring earthquakes in Japan is discussed elsewhere in
this issue [2], while the Fukushima accident is discussed in [3].
The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami disaster left many lessons to be learned
regarding Japan’s disaster management policies. As a result, they have been drastically changed
to promote initiatives for building national resilience with the aim of creating safe and secure
national lands, regions and economic society that have strength and flexibility, in any disasters.
For disaster-affected areas, the central government has amended policies of coastal protection
from the viewpoint of reducing risks and enhancing disaster resilience, and local governments
have completed drafting reconstruction plans including infrastructure design, transportation,
land-use management, urban design, relocation, economic and industrial outlooks. Four years
have passed since the event occurred, and a national budget of 25 000 billion yen has been
allocated for 5 year reconstruction efforts.
This contribution revisits the lessons of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami
disaster specifically focusing on the response, impact and paradigm shift of Japan’s disaster
management policies and discusses perspectives for enhancing national resilience. First, we
review the pre-2011 Japan tsunami countermeasures developed from the experience of the past
Sanriku tsunami events. Second, we revisit the responses to the 2011 event, specifically on the
tsunami warning system and efforts to identify the tsunami impacts and lessons learned. Third,
the post-disaster paradigm shifts in reconstruction are discussed through a case study in Sendai
city, Miyagi prefecture.

2. Pre-2011 paradigm
(a) History of Sanriku Tsunamis
The Sanriku Coast lies on the north-eastern side of the island of Honshu (in the Tohoku region),
corresponding to Aomori, Iwate and Miyagi prefectures. The Sanriku coastline is particularly
vulnerable to tsunamis because it has many V-shaped bays, which cause tsunami energy to focus
and amplify.
During the night of 15 June 1896, the Meiji Great Sanriku Tsunami hit the Sanriku Coast. The
highest tsunami run-up height was 38 m at Ryori Shirahama in Iwate prefecture. The earthquake
was a typical ‘tsunami earthquake’ that had negligibly weak ground shaking, and, therefore, no
3
residents tried to evacuate. This resulted in the death toll of 22 000. The economic losses reached
about 10% of the national budget of the time [4]. After this tsunami, several villages were relocated

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to high ground at the personal expenses of individuals or village leaders [5].
In the early morning on 3 March 1933, another major tsunami struck the Sanriku Coast. The
maximum run-up height was 29 m at Ryori Shirahama. Most of the coastal villages on the Sanriku
Coast were devastated again. Because ground shaking was strong this time, many residents were
awakened and evacuated to high ground; however, the death toll reached 3000.
Before the 1933 Showa Great Sanriku Tsunami, the countermeasures taken were simply the
relocation of residences to higher ground. Three months after the 1933 event, the Council on
Earthquake Disaster Prevention (CEDP) of the Ministry of Education proposed a total system of
tsunami disaster mitigation that consisted of 10 countermeasures: relocation of dwelling houses
to high ground, coastal dykes, tsunami control forests, seawalls, tsunami-resistant areas, buffer
zones, evacuation routes, tsunami watch, tsunami evacuation, memorial events. Coastal dykes
were constructed at five sites only, because of expensive construction costs.
In 1941, a tsunami warning organization was founded for the Sanriku Coast. A tsunami
forecasting chart was drafted empirically. After the Meteorological Business Act was enacted in
1952 [5], the forecasting system covered the whole coast of Japan.
On 23 May 1960 (JST), a huge earthquake occurred off the Chilean coast. The tsunami
generated by the earthquake attacked the Japanese coast the next morning. Coastal residents
did not feel any ground shaking and the Japan Metrological Agency did not issue a tsunami
warning. Thus, the residents were suddenly attacked by the tsunami. Among the Japanese Pacific
coasts from Hokkaido down to Okinawa, the Sanriku Coast suffered the most serious damage.
The tsunami height of 3–6 m was not so high in as the near-field tsunamis of the Meiji and
Showa events.

(b) Pre-2011 Tsunami countermeasures

Japan’s tsunami countermeasures after the 1960 tsunami consisted mainly of the construction of
seawalls and coastal dykes, based on the tsunami height in the 1960 event, 3–6 m at most. At the
same time, rapid economic growth resulted from the ‘Income-Doubling Plan’ that started in 1960,
an age of rapid growth, could cover the expensive construction costs.
In addition to the 1896 Meiji and the 1933 Sanriku tsunamis which killed 22 000 and
3000 people, respectively, the experiences of the 1959 Ise-wan super typhoon (Vera) and
the 1960 Chilean earthquake tsunami strongly motivated Japan to develop coastal protection
infrastructures of seawalls and breakwaters. Especially in Iwate prefecture, 10 m high seawalls
have been built along the coast to protect communities that have been devastated many times
throughout history.
The first tsunami breakwater was constructed at the mouth of Ofunato Bay, Iwate prefecture,
where the maximum water depth was 38 m. The functionality of this breakwater for protection
was investigated through numerical analysis [6]. This was the first stage of using computer
simulations in tsunami science and engineering.
The Kamaishi tsunami breakwater is in the Guinness Book of World Records as the deepest
tsunami breakwater at nearly 63 m deep, and was designed to protect the densely populated
area in Kamaishi city located at the bottom of the bay. Its construction started in 1978 and
was completed in 2009, requiring an investment of almost 30 years and 120 billion yen. But
even this barrier could not protect citizens from the 2011 tsunami, although it earned them a
6 min delay before the tsunami penetrated Kamaishi city, and 40% tsunami height reduction
(13.7–8.1 m) in the harbour [7]. One can understand how, with this huge concrete breakwater,
people in Kamaishi would feel well protected, and yet the 2011 tsunami caused 1253 fatalities in
the city.
 Concrete seawalls and coastal dykes were covered with concrete at the front, top and back.
4
However, hard protection at the dyke toes was not mentioned. It was found in the 2011 event that
this lack of toe protection became a weak point, once overflowed.

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At night on 12 July 1993, an earthquake off the west coast of Hokkaido generated a huge
tsunami. The southernmost area of Okushiri Island was completely devastated by the 11 m
tsunami, even though the area was protected by 4.5 m seawalls. This fact called for serious
reflection on the conventional method that was used after 1960 which relied mainly on coastal
structures. Field measurements of extreme inundation are now used for validating numerical
models [8,9].
In 1997, the Japan central government council, which consists of seven ministries, issued
a guideline for comprehensive tsunami countermeasures that should be taken as part of
regional tsunami disaster prevention. In those guidelines, three basic concepts of tsunami
countermeasures were recommended: (i) building seawalls, breakwaters and flood gates to
protect lives and properties; (ii) urban planning to create a tsunami-resilient community through
effective land-use management and arrangement of redundant facilities to increase the safe
area, such as vertical evacuation buildings; (iii) disaster information dissemination, evacuation
planning and public education.
The 2011 Tohoku event provided the first real test of the various technologies and
countermeasures that Japan has been using to protect people during tsunamis. Some have
probably worked well, while others appear to have failed.

(c) Tsunami source scenarios and hazard maps

Most tsunamis are generated by earthquakes that occur in subduction zones, the areas where
oceanic plates subduct beneath overriding continental plates. The tsunami source scenarios
considered in preparing hazard maps are determined by the results of long-term evaluation of
seismic activities. Thirty-year monitoring and measurement of seismic activity around Japan
have revealed the seismotectonic structure [10]. It was thus suggested that in the Tohoku
region the Pacific plate was moving westwards with a convergence rate of 8.5 cm year−1 and
was subducting beneath the North American plate at the Japan Trench; interpretation of the
seismotectonic features were believed to be divided into three seismotectonic provinces [10] and
their characteristic earthquakes. On this basis, the maximum potential earthquake in the Tohoku
region was estimated as Mw 8.5. The March 11 Tohoku earthquake was caused by thrust faulting
at the plate boundary between the Pacific and North American plates as expected. However, its
size was unexpectedly large (Mw 9.0). Earthquake source studies indicate that the fault ruptured
with a maximum slip of 60–80 m [11] over an area approximately 450 km by 200 km [12], making
the pre-2011 estimates irrelevant.
Paleoseismological studies suggested the predecessor of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake had
been the 869 Jogan earthquake [13,14]. The variability in size and recurrence interval of great
earthquakes in subduction zones cannot be well resolved with seismological studies only,
especially for the occurrence of extreme events with a 500- to 1000-year recurrence interval.
It was widely believed that Japan was one of the most prepared countries in the world for
tsunami events. In one sense, the belief was right. The 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake
tsunami (Mw 9.0–9.3) killed 220 000 people, while the 2011 event (Mw 9.0) caused over 18 000
fatalities. Both events are probably similar with regard to the size of the earthquake and the height
of the tsunami. One reason for the striking difference in the number of fatalities was the level of
preparedness.
After the 1990s, many local governments published tsunami hazard maps, prepared from
numerical simulations. As a national guideline of preparing flood hazard maps, the Cabinet
Office published ‘Tsunami and Storm Surge Hazard Map Manual’ in 2004 [15]. This manual
recommends hazard maps not only for residents but also for companies and fishermen. A hazard
map shows the flooded area by past tsunamis and by the most likely tsunami in the near future.
Following the guideline, coastal cities and towns in Japan had prepared tsunami hazard maps
(a) (b)
5

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Figure 1. (a) Tsunami hazard map published for Kesennuma city, Miyagi prefecture. The map was delivered to every household
before the 2011 event to announce the tsunami inundation zone in past events, list of evacuation facilities, and brief instructions
for earthquake and tsunami preparedness. (b) The map of tsunami inundation extent in the 2011 event (www.gsi.go.jp). The
tsunami caused 1280 dead or missing even in this well-prepared community.

with estimated inundation zones, the list of shelters where people could evacuate and instructions
on how to survive a tsunami. In many coastal communities, people have conducted regular
evacuation drills and have held workshops to learn which areas are at risk, by referring to a
hazard map prepared by the local government. Figure 1 contrasts one hazard map for Kesennuma
city, in Miyagi prefecture, with the actual extent of inundation in the 2011 tsunami. The maps seem
quite similar in terms of the tsunami inundation extent.
In addition, in Sanriku coastal communities, people were taught the lesson or maxim of
‘Tsunami Tendenko’, which means that people should run without taking care of others, even
family members [16]. This phrase encourages people to escape by making individual decisions
and taking personal responsibility; every individual effort increases the possibility of surviving.
Note that ‘Tsunami Tendenko’ is not an egoistic maxim, with the importance of trust among loved
ones to achieve the aim of maximizing the number of lives saved [17].
The 2011 tsunami disaster also implied that hazard maps have two functional aspects. One
is to inform people that they are at risk. It is through such opportunities to know their risk that
people learn that they must try to escape an at-risk area as soon as possible, when they feel strong
ground motion or hear the tsunami warning or evacuation order issued. On the other hand, a
hazard map can function to assure residents living outside of the expected inundation zone that
their area is NOT at risk. This is one negative aspect of relying heavily on a hazard map. In the
2011 event, hazard maps failed to offer accurate predictions in some areas and may have increased
the number of fatalities, as people believed that they did not have to evacuate immediately, even
though these maps indicated the uncertainty of estimations based on past events and state-of-the-
art computer simulations.
3. Response to the 2011 event 6

(a) Tsunami warning

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The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which is responsible for issuing tsunami warnings/
advisories and for estimating tsunami height, employed a new system in 1999 [18] and updated
it using Earthquake Early Warnings (EEWs) in 2006 [19]. Japan believed that JMA’s tsunami
warning system was using the most advanced technology in the world. In fact, its tsunami
forecasting technologies and numerical models were exported to many foreign countries that
needed support, such as Indonesia, Thailand, Mexico and Peru. JMA prepared a pre-conducted
tsunami propagation simulation database for over 100 000 earthquake scenarios around Japan.
The contents of the warning were classified into three categories, according to the estimation of
tsunami height: ‘Major tsunami’ (estimated more than 3 m), ‘Tsunami’ (estimated 1 or 2 m) and
‘Advisory’ (0.5 m or less).
When the 2011 event occurred at 14.46 JST on 11 March, JMA’s initial estimate of the magnitude
(Mjma) was 7.9, which is a combination of the magnitude based on ground displacement
for relatively large earthquakes and the magnitude based on ground velocity for relatively
small earthquakes [20]. Based on the promptly estimated magnitude 7.9, 3 min after the quake
(14.49 JST), JMA issued a Major tsunami warning to the coasts of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima
prefectures with estimates of 3 m, 6 m and 3 m, respectively. After the tsunami was observed at
offshore tsunami buoys, JMA revised the contents of the warning with estimates of 3 m, 6 m, over
10 m, 6 m, 4 m and 4 m to the coasts of Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, Ibaraki and Chiba
prefectures, respectively. Receiving the tsunami warning from JMA, some residents claimed that
they thought they were safe based on the 3 m estimation: they did not feel that they had to
evacuate, as they felt safe behind a 10 m seawall. Even worse, in several communities, the radio
or speaker system did not work because of the blackout caused by the earthquake.
Now, JMA has expanded its seismic/tsunami monitoring network by installing broadband
seismometers and an offshore tsunami monitoring system, to increase its capability for quicker
and more accurate estimation of earthquake magnitude and tsunami [21]. Still, it is difficult to
determine a precise magnitude within around 3 min for large earthquakes with a magnitude of
8 or more and for ‘tsunami earthquakes’ generating much larger tsunamis than their magnitude
would suggest. For such cases, JMA has introduced methods to quickly highlight the possibility
of underestimation in magnitude estimation and issues an initial tsunami warning based on the
largest seismic fault expected in the area where the earthquake was triggered [21].
Learning lessons, we should note that there are still limitations on the reliability of technologies
that can be used in a very short time. Tsunami warning information can inform people that
they are in danger, but it cannot guarantee people’s safety. The most important lesson is that
one should not wait for official information to act: strong ground shaking is the first alert to
take action.

(b) Witnessed tsunami height and inundation flow

After the 2011 Tohoku tsunami attack, the international post-tsunami survey team was
established and conducted a nation-wide survey [22,23] to record the tsunami run-up heights,
flow depths, inundation extent and the impacts. Tsunami height measurements are most dense
from previous post-tsunami survey teams and are now widely used for understanding features
the local tsunami amplification and for benchmarks of tsunami modelling. Figure 2 illustrates the
measured tsunami inundation and run-up heights by the survey team, with plots of historical
tsunami heights of the 1611 Keicho Sanriku, 1896 Meiji Sanriku, and 1933 Showa Sanriku
earthquake tsunamis [24]. Northeast of Tohoku, the maximum run-up height in this event was
similar to the events of both 1896 and 1933, especially of the 1896 Meiji Sanriku tsunami. However,
the affected area of this event was much more extensive than in those historical events. In this
sense, the 11 March 2011 event was the largest known tsunami event in Japan. In addition, a
 (a) (b) 7
42° N
141°0´ E

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38°20´ N

41° N

run-up (m)
40° N 0.1 – 1.0
1.1 – 2.0
2.1 – 3.0
3.1– 4.0
4.1– 5.0
39° N 5.1– 6.0
6.1– 7.0
(b)
7.1– 8.0
8.1– 9.0
38°0´ N
38° N 9.1– 10.0
0 10 20
km

37° N

36° N
2011 Tohoku
1933 Showa
1896 Meiji
1611 Keicho

35° N
0 10 20 30 40
tsunami height (m)

Figure 2. (a) The measured heights of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami [22] and historical Sanriku earthquake tsunamis (1611, 1896
and 1933 events). The historical tsunami data were provided by Japan Tsunami Trace Database [24] maintained by Tohoku
University and the Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization (JNES). Black dots on the coastline indicate the points of the 2011
tsunami height measurement. The tsunami run-up height reached up to 40 m in Iwate prefecture. (b) The extent of the tsunami
inundation zone with the measurement of the run-up heights at tsunami inundation limit in Sendai Coast [23].

significant feature of the 2011 tsunami was the wide extent of the inundation zone; for example,
on the Sendai plain (figure 2b), the tsunami inundated more than 5 km inland, causing devastating
damage to populated areas and rice fields. These features implied that the 2011 earthquake
was probably a combination of the 1896 Sanriku ‘tsunami earthquake’ and a Jogan-type deeper
interplate earthquake [14].
Tsunami inland penetration with strong inundation flow causes damage to infrastructures,
forests, buildings and humans. Measurements of tsunami inundation flow velocities on land were
quite rare, and it was thus difficult to understand what really happened in the devastated area
and to identify the cause and mechanisms of structural destruction by tsunami inundation flow.
Thanks to the recent advances of hand-held video cameras and mobile phones, however, many
tsunami survivors have attempted to capture the moment of tsunami attack on their communities
and have uploaded videos to the Internet (we should note that taking photos or videos of a
tsunami should only ever be done from a position uphill, never from a beach). Applying a video
analysis technique, the tsunami flow velocity can be determined to understand the characteristics
of tsunami inland penetration and impact on structures [25–30].
 In Kesennuma Bay, Fritz et al. [26] analysed survivor videos and measured flow velocities
8
of about 10 m s−1 for the inundation flow that penetrated through the city [26], and produced
a hydrograph of the tsunami. Another video was taken from the roof of a building in Onagawa

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town by one survivor. A part of this video was uploaded to the website of the Japanese newspaper
company Yomiuri Shimbun [31]. It captured the moment of tsunami attack and contains
important information of how the tsunami penetrated inland and local tsunami inundation flow
characteristics.
Onagawa town, Miyagi prefecture (10 014 population before the earthquake), is one of the
towns devastated by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami. The tsunami attacked the town at
15.20 JST (34 min after the earthquake occurred) and caused 816 fatalities and 125 missing. Using
the video taken by a resident from the top of the reinforced concrete (RC) building in Onagawa
harbour, the flow velocity of the tsunami inundation in Onagawa town when the houses in
the town started being washed away was estimated as 6.3 m s−1 for the ascending tsunami and
7.5 m s−1 for the return flow at a flow depth of approximately 5 m. This observation implies, as the
flow conditions of the subcritical flow of the ascending tsunami and the super-critical flow of the
return flow, that the return flow in the first tsunami attack was slightly stronger than the leading
tsunami. The 6.3 m s−1 of inundation flow of the ascending tsunami caused a drag force per unit
meter width of 100 kN m−1 [32]. These hydrodynamic parameters appear capable of devastation
for the coastal forests that have been planted for the past centuries. Often, the destroyed trees did
more harm with tsunami inland penetration. For instance, in the city of Rikuzentakata, 70 000 pine
trees were on a 200 m wide, 1.7 km long beautiful sand beach and were totally destroyed except
for one tree [33]. Consequently, the devastated trees headed inland producing large amounts of
waste, and may have caused more destruction.

(c) Structural vulnerability to tsunamis

Many field surveys were conducted to identify the damage mechanisms of structures and their
impact [27,34,35]. Structural vulnerability to tsunamis is a critical issue in planning for tsunami-
resilient communities. Integrating structural damage information [36] with field survey data,
such as flow depths, produces a new measure of structural vulnerability to tsunamis, as a
form of tsunami fragility curve or tsunami fragility function [37]. In general, a tsunami fragility
curve is defined as structural damage probability or fatality rate with particular regard to the
hydrodynamic features of tsunami inundation flow, such as flow depth obtained from field
measurements, current velocity and hydrodynamic force estimated with tsunami numerical
modelling [38].
Figure 3 shows an example of a tsunami fragility curve obtained in the 2011 Tohoku event.
Note that this fragility curve was obtained using the form of probability of structural destruction
as a function of measured tsunami flow depth. As observed in the tsunami fragility curves,
structures were especially vulnerable when the local flow depth exceeded 2 m, while a 6 m flow
depth would cause everything to be washed away. This finding can inform land-use planning, so
that residential areas will not be inundated more than 2 m. Also, we found high-rise RC buildings
with robust columns and walls withstood tsunami flow depths over 2 m and can be used for
vertical evacuation.
Before the 2011 event, the general belief of a safe place to survive a tsunami attack was robust
RC buildings. In the past, nothing has been reported about the devastation of RC structures
except for the case of the Scotch Cap lighthouse in Unimak island that was destroyed by the
1946 Aleutian tsunami [40]. This 18 m tall lighthouse built on a cliff 10 m a.s.l. was hit by an
approximately 30 m tsunami. All that remains of the lighthouse is the foundation and part of the
concrete seawall. Details of the inundation are discussed by Okal et al. [41].
In the 2011 Tohoku event, at least eight RC or steel construction buildings were found
overturned or washed away in Onagawa town and Miyako city. Even in Onagawa town,
28 people were saved inside the boiler room of a five-storey RC building which was totally
submerged by the tsunami inundation flow.
 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
9
damage probability

damage probability

damage probability

damage probability
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6 0.6

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0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Okushiri (1993)
0.2 Banda Aceh (2004) 0.2 0.2 0.2 Higashi-
Miyagi (2011) Kesen-numa (2011) Minami-Sanriku (2011) Matsushima (2011)

0 2 4 6 8 10 0 4 8 12 0 4 8 12 0 2 4 6 8 10
flow depth (m) flow depth (m) flow depth (m) flow depth (m)

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

damage probability

damage probability

damage probability

damage probability
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Ishinomaki (2011) Sendai (2011) Natori (2011) Iwanuma (2011)

0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
flow depth (m) flow depth (m) flow depth (m) flow depth (m)

1.0 1.0
damage probability

damage probability
0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2
Watari (2011) Yamamoto (2011)

0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
flow depth (m) flow depth (m)

Figure 3. Tsunami fragility curves for structural destruction (washed-away structures) [39]. The solid lines are obtained from
the devastated municipalities of Miyagi prefecture (from the 2011 event) and the dashed one is from Banda Aceh, Indonesia (the
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) [37].

(d) Tsunami’s impact on schools

Many pupils and teachers were affected by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. On
6 October 2011, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science & Technology published a
report of student fatalities and injuries: in total, 635 children, students and teachers were killed
by the tsunami, and 221 were injured.
Especially hard hit was the Okawa elementary school in Ishinomaki city, located 5 km inland
along the Kitakami River: the school lost 74 pupils (70 killed and 4 still missing) out of a total
of 108 and 10 teachers in the 2011 tsunami. At least 50 min elapsed after the earthquake before
the tsunami attacked the school. After the strong ground shaking had stopped and the tsunami
warning had been issued, the teachers and pupils gathered on school grounds to discuss where
to evacuate to. They had two options. One option was a hill with a steep slope behind the school,
which looked difficult for small children to climb. The other was a small overlook at the river
bridge, 200 m away from the school. Consequently, teachers decided to head for the bridge,
walking along the river. Shortly thereafter, the tsunami penetrated along the river and overtopped
the riverbank, sweeping away pupils and teachers.
We must learn lessons from the incidents. What is the requirement that should be put into
place for safer school buildings that can withstand both strong ground shaking and a devastating
tsunami? How high should buildings be, so that the inhabitants can survive? (The Okawa
elementary school building withstood the devastating tsunami inundation flow, but was totally
submerged.) How can we educate children to be prepared? How should teachers be trained to
provide appropriate guidance to save children’s lives and their own?
 Another story from Kamaishi city will give answers to the above questions. The so-called
10
‘Miracle of Kamaish’ is very good practice by school children who took the initiatives for a
community’s evacuation in Unosumai, Kamaishi city, Iwate prefecture. In Unosumai, students

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of Kamaishi East Junior High School immediately ran out of the school to higher ground after
the earthquake. Their very quick and resolute response prompted local residents and even the
students and teachers in a neighbouring elementary school to follow and consequently saved
lots of lives. The response of Kamaishi East Junior High School students was based on the three
principles of evacuation taught by Prof. Toshitaka Katada of Gumma University [42]. He told
the students not to trust hazard maps, to make their best efforts in any situation, and to take the
initiative of evacuation in the community. These principles are now highly valued as one of best
practice/outcome of disaster education. The response capabilities the children learned at school
helped them to overcome a disaster that exceeded all worst-case scenarios.

4. Post-tsunami reconstruction outlook

(a) Paradigm shift
In April 2011, one month after the event occurred, the central government established the
Reconstruction Policy Council to develop a national recovery and reconstruction outlook for
tsunami-resilient communities [43,44]. Also, the central government decided a policy of coastal
protection such as seawalls and breakwaters [45], which would be designed to ensure their
performance to a potential tsunami level of up to the approximately 150 year recurrence interval.
In this sense, the government policy of designing coastal protection is for the 150 year tsunami
level, the so-called ‘Level 1’ or ‘Prevention Level’, ensuring that coastal protection will prevent
tsunamis from penetrating inland to protect lives and properties (or economic activities). For
the largest-possible tsunami level of the more than 150 year recurrence interval, the so-called
extreme event (such as the 2011 Tohoku event), the government refers to this as ‘Level 2’ or
‘Preparedness/Mitigation Level’ to protect human lives and to reduce the losses and damage with
comprehensive disaster management measures including coastal protection, urban planning,
evacuation and public education.
A remarkable paradigm shift in coastal protection policies is on seawall design. The lesson
learned was that coastal infrastructure such as breakwaters and seawalls cannot always protect
life and property: even great seawalls can fail. Seawalls should be designed with the assumption
of overtopping and destruction, and communities should not rely on coastal infrastructures alone
for protection.
In December 2011, the central government enacted the ‘Act on the Development of Tsunami-
resilient Communities’. According to the principle of ‘Human life is most important’, this law
promotes a development of tsunami-resistant communities based on the concept of multiple
defences which combines infrastructure development and other forms of measures targeting the
largest class tsunami [46]. The act is based on the following new principles: (i) properly combine
structural and non-structural measures to minimize damage; (ii) with sufficient consideration
to socioeconomic conditions, coastal protection facilities should be aimed at protecting people’s
lives, property, industrial and economic activities, and national land against a certain scale of
relatively frequent tsunamis; (iii) tsunami disaster mitigation strategies should be based on
multiple protection that combines structural and non-structural measures, with consideration of
regional characteristics.

(b) Evaluation of reconstruction plan

All the municipalities in the 2011 tsunami-affected areas needed to draft their reconstruction
plans following the ‘Act on the Development of Tsunami-resilient Communities’. When verifying
the proposed reconstruction plan, numerical modelling is useful. For Sendai city, we performed
numerical modelling of tsunami inundation in the city by setting several tsunami source
 defence against largest tsunami 11

defence against tsunami that occurs

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only once every few
Sendai decades or centuries
Shiogama–Watari
residential area Tobu
evacuation line prefetural coastal disaster-
road
centre road park (hill) prevention forest
coastal
breakwater
evacuation route sand beach
Teizan canal sea

Figure 4. Conceptual image of tsunami-prevention facilities in Sendai city [49]. The seawall was designed for Level 1 tsunami
(the height equivalent to the historical tsunami heights in the past 150 years and storm surge heights in the past 50 years).
The other measures secure multiple protection. (Online version in colour.)

scenarios [47,48]. The nonlinear shallow water equations are discretized by the staggered
leap-frog finite difference scheme with bottom friction in the form of Manning’s formula
according to the land-use condition [37]. The inundation model results are validated through
the comparison with field data in terms of local inundation depths, inundation heights [22,23].
Under the limitations and uncertain conditions of funding, prefectural and local governments
have developed their own recovery and reconstruction plans, which require 10 years to be
completed (National budget is allocated for the first 5 years). These plans consist of the
combination of structural prevention/mitigation, urban planning, preparedness and provide
suggestions for land-use management, relocation, housing reconstruction and tsunami disaster
mitigation plans. The key role of academia, from the engineering point of view, is to verify and
evaluate if these plans will really work for future disaster reduction. For instance, based on the
findings regarding the structural vulnerability (figure 3), Sendai city determined a reconstruction
plan [49] to reduce the tsunami flow depth to less than 2 m in the populated area with a conceptual
image of multiple coastal protection (figure 4). A significant feature of Sendai city’s reconstruction
plan is integrating several coastal protection facilities, such as seawalls, coastal forests, park
(artificial hill) and elevated roads to minimize the potential losses. Figure 5a indicates the plan
view for the multiple protection of Sendai city with a 7.2 m seawall and river dyke and 6 m
elevated prefectural road. The seawall’s height was determined by considering historical tsunami
heights in the past 150 years and storm surge heights in the past 50 years (Level 1). For the largest
possible tsunami (Level 2), the city secures multiple facilities of coastal forest, artificial hill, raised
road and evacuation sites to protect citizens’ lives.
To evaluate how these protection measures will work in terms of tsunami disaster reduction,
we conducted tsunami numerical modelling with the 2011 tsunami source scenarios, namely
‘Level 2 tsunami’ scenarios of the largest-possible tsunamis, and the present reconstruction plan.
Figure 5b shows one example from preliminary results. As indicated in the figure, we found that
the multiple protection measures for Level 2 tsunami will contribute to substantially reduce the
tsunami inundation zone and flow depth on Sendai plain especially at the western side of 6 m
elevated prefectural road. Using this result, Sendai city determined the land-used plan and the
area of housing reconstruction and relocation. However, note that the tsunami (the 2011 scenario)
will overtop even a 7.2 m seawall (designed for Level 1 tsunami) and the 6 m elevated road, and
the model assumes no destruction of structures. In this sense, the model cannot reproduce all the
aspects of tsunami inland penetration. Coastal infrastructure such as breakwaters and seawalls
cannot always protect life and property. Seawalls or coastal structures should be designed with
the assumption of overtopping and resiliency, and communities should not rely on coastal
infrastructures alone for protection. Based on this new reconstruction plan in the tsunami-affected
area, Sendai city has formulated its tsunami evacuation plan [50] to protect lives.
 (a) (b)
12

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river dyke (7.2 m) 2011 tsunami extent

elevated road (6 m)

Sendai City
seawall (7.2 m)
flow depth (m)
0.2 – 2.0
2.1 – 4.0
4.1 – 6.0
6.1 – 8.0
Natori 8.1 – 10.0
10.1 – 12.0
City 12.1 – 14.0
Natori Rv. 14.1 –
0 5
river dyke (7.2 m) km
0 5
km

Figure 5. (a) Setting of tsunami prevention facilities in Sendai city reconstruction plan [49]. (b) Result of tsunami numerical
modelling to evaluate the effect of the proposed reconstruction plan in Sendai city (maximum flow depth).

5. Conclusion
The devastating tsunami followed by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami
left many lessons to be learned that have led the paradigm shift of Japan’s tsunami disaster
management.
On tsunami hazard maps, knowing which areas are at risk is critical, but one must
also recognize the predictive limits of science and technology; hazard maps cannot always
accurately predict areas at risk. Governments can reduce risk, but communities must not become
complacent. Even now, numerical simulations cannot predict everything that will happen in a
disaster. Hazard maps have two functional aspects. One is to tell people that they are at risk.
On the other hand, a hazard map can function to assure residents living outside of the expected
inundation zone that their area is not at risk. This is one negative aspect of relying too completely
on a hazard map.
Coastal infrastructure such as breakwaters and seawalls cannot always protect life and
property: even great seawalls can fail. Seawalls should be designed with the assumption of
overtopping and destruction, and communities should not rely on coastal infrastructures alone
for protection. A new paradigm of coastal structural design has caused significant arguments in
some Sanriku coastal communities. The design policy of coastal defence structures sets the height
of seawalls to ensure their performance to a potential tsunami level of up to approximately the
150 year recurrence interval (Level 1 or ‘Prevention Level’). However, when implementing, this
design paradigm has triggered conflict and debate. Even when protected by great seawalls of 8–
10 m, the government often prohibits the lower part of town to redevelop as a residential area,
as the low land is reserved for commercial and industrial purposes. Many coastal communities
on low-land devastated areas are thus moving uphill by applying for relocation and buy-out
programme. Scattering residential areas will isolate people and weaken community connections,
and consequently, undermine the community’s sustainability with shrinking population in rural
areas. Then the question is ‘what are the great seawalls for?’. This problem is not yet solved.
As observed in devastated areas in Japan, tsunami flow depths over 2 m have the potential to
severely damage houses. High rise RC buildings with robust columns and walls can withstand
tsunami flow depths over 2 m and can be used for vertical evacuation. However, at the same
time, at least eight RC or steel construction buildings have been found overturned or washed
13
away. This fact led to a revision of the requirement for structural design of tsunami evacuation
buildings [51], specifically focusing on the tsunami loading effect. School buildings should

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have similar construction requirements, in order to ensure children’s safety. Teachers, parents
and children should have more opportunities to learn about their risk and how to survive in
emergency situations.
Following the expanded seismic/tsunami monitoring network by installing broadband
seismometers and offshore tsunami monitoring systems, JMA’s tsunami warning increased its
capability for quicker and more accurate estimation of earthquake magnitude and tsunami.
However, learning the lessons, we should note that there are still limitations on the reliability of
technologies that can be used in such a limited amount of time. Tsunami warning information can
inform people that they are in danger, but it cannot guarantee people’s safety. The most important
lesson is that one should not wait for official information to act: strong ground shaking is the first
alert to take action.
Lastly, public education is the most important part of tsunami disaster management. Prof.
Katada’s three principles: not to trust hazard maps (recognize the predictive limits), make the
best efforts in any situation and take the initiative of evacuation in a community; these are highly
recommended attitudes to overcome a disaster that exceeds all worst-case scenarios.
Authors’ contributions. S.K. contributes on conception, structure and drafting of the article. N.S. also contributes
on drafting the article specifically in sections of ‘Pre-2011 Paradigm’ and ‘Response to the 2011 Event’. S.K.
conducted critical revision of the article for important intellectual content.
Competing interests. The authors have no competing interests.
Funding. This research was funded by CREST funding program of Japan Science and Technology Agency
(JST), the Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and
Technology (MEXT) of Japan, and IRIDeS project grant.
Acknowledgements. We are grateful to Professor Costas Synolakis for valuable comments.

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