07 - Project Cost Management-2019-06-13 13 - 21 - 19
07 - Project Cost Management-2019-06-13 13 - 21 - 19
07 - Project Cost Management-2019-06-13 13 - 21 - 19
6th EDITION
3 Determine Budget
Cost
Management
• Defining how the project costs will be estimated, budgeted, managed, Monitored, and controlled.
ووضع ز،المشوع
.ميانيتها وإدارتها ومراقبتها والتحكم بها • عملية تحديد كيفية تقدير تكاليف ر
✓ provides guidance and direction on how the project costs will be managed throughout the project.
المشوع عىل مدار ر
.المشوع ✓ توفر اإلرشاد والتوجيه بشأن كيفية إدارة تكاليف ر
Tools &
Input
Techniques Outputs
2- DATA ANALYSIS
Alternatives analysis
Can include reviewing strategic funding options such as: self-funding, funding with equity, or funding with debt. It can also
include consideration of ways to acquire project resources such as making, purchasing, renting, or leasing.
3- MEETINGS
Project teams may hold planning meetings to develop the Cost management plan. Attendees may include the project manager,
the project sponsor, selected project team members, selected stakeholders, anyone with responsibility for Project Cost.
1- Units of measure (such as staff hours, staff days, or weeks for time measures; meters, liters, tons, kilometers, or
cubic yards for quantity measures; or lump sum)
2- Level of Precision (rounding up or down, ex: US$995.59 to US$1,000) مستوى الضبط
3- Level of Accuracy The acceptable range (ex: ± 10%) يتم تحديد النطاق المقبول.مستوى الدقة
4- Control thresholds (agreed-upon amount of variation to be allowed before some action needs to be taken)
5- Organizational procedures links. روابط اإلجراءات التنظيمية
6- Rules of performance measurement قواعد قياس األداء
Cost
Management
( 2 ) Estimate Costs
Tools &
Input
Techniques Outputs
• Uses a statistical relationship between relevant historical data and other variables (e.g., square footage in construction).
يعتمد عىل العالقة اإلحصائية ز
بي البيانات السابقة والمتغيات األخرى
TT ❑ Bottom-up estimating أعل
ال يالتقدير من أسفل ي
• The cost of individual work packages or activities is estimated to the greatest level of specified
detail. The detailed cost is then summarized or “rolled up” to higher levels.
ثم يتم تلخيص التكلفة المفصلة أو تقريبها.يتم تقدير تكلفة حزم العمل أو األنشطة الفردية بأعىل مستوى من التفاصيل المحددة
.إل مستويات أعىل ألغراض رفع التقارير
BY: EL-Sayed Mohsen , PMP®, PMI- RMP®
Lecture 04 : Project Cost Management
2. Estimate Costs (Planning)
✓ The accuracy of single-point duration estimates may be improved by considering estimation uncertainty and risk.
M : Most likely (based on realistic effort assessment for the required work) اكي الحاالت حدوثا للنشاط ً
استنادا إل تحليل سيناريو ر التكلفة
ً
O : Optimistic (best-case scenario for the activity) التكلفة استنادا إل تحليل سيناريو أفضل الحاالت للنشاط
ً
P : Pessimistic (worst-case scenario for the activity.) استنادا إل تحليل سيناريو أسوأ الحاالت للنشاط التكلفة
❖ Triangular distribution. E = (O + M + P) / 3
❖ Beta distribution. E = (O + 4M + P) / 6
TT ❑ Data analysis
✓ Alternatives analysis
• Used to evaluate identified options in order to select which options or approaches to use to execute
and perform the work of the project.
An example would be:
Evaluating the cost, schedule, resource, and quality impacts of buying versus making a deliverable.
✓ Reserve analysis.
• Cost estimates may include contingency reserves to account for cost uncertainty.
• Contingency reserves are the budget within the cost baseline that is allocated for identified risks.
• Contingency reserves are often viewed as the part of the budget intended to address the known unknowns
that can affect a project. For example, rework for some project deliverables could be anticipated, while the
amount of this rework is unknown.
✓ Cost of quality
BY: EL-Sayed Mohsen , PMP®, PMI- RMP®
Lecture 04 : Project Cost Management
2. Estimate Costs (Planning)
• Can include spreadsheets, simulation software, and statistical analysis tools to assist with cost estimating.
ز يمكن أن يتضمن نظام معلومات إدارة ر
ة.اإلحصائ للمساعدة يف تقدير التكلف
ي المشوع جداول بيانات وبرمجيات محاكاة وأدوات التحليل
❑ DECISION MAKING
• The decision-making techniques that can be used in the Estimate Costs process include voting
• Voting is an assessment process having multiple alternatives with an expected outcome in the form of
future actions. These techniques are useful for engaging team members to improve estimate accuracy
and commitment to the emerging estimates.
Costs are estimated for all resources that are applied to the cost estimate includes :
❑ Indication of the range of possible estimates (e.g., US$10,000 (±10%) to indicate that the item is
Cost
Management
• Aggregating the estimated costs of individual activities or work packages to establish an authorized cost baseline.
.إجمال التكاليف التقديرية لألنشطة الفردية أو حزم العمل إلنشاء مرجع معتمد للتكاليف
ي • ي
ه عملية حساب
✓ Determines the cost baseline against which project performance can be monitored and controlled.
✓ تحدد الخط المرجع للتكلفة الب يمكن زف ضوئها متابعة أداء ر
المشوع والتحكم فيه ي ي ي
( 3 ) Determine Budget
Tools &
Input
Techniques Outputs
✓ Cost estimates are aggregated by work packages in accordance with the WBS.
✓ The work package cost estimates are then aggregated for the higher component levels of the WBS (such as control
accounts) and, ultimately, for the entire project.
Contingency Reserve
Cost Baseline
Reserve Analysis :
Cost Budget
• Contingency Reserve.
• Management Reserve : Cost estimates
• For unforeseen work that is within scope of the project.
• Address the unknown unknowns that can affect a project.
• Is not included in the cost baseline but is part of the overall project budget.
• When an amount of management reserves is used to fund unforeseen work, the amount of management reserve
used is added to the cost baseline, thus requiring an approved change to the cost baseline.
ز ز
• المرجع للتكلفة ومن ثم يلزم إجراء
ي االحتياط اإلداري المستخدم إل الخط
ي تتم إضافة مقدار،يف حال استخدام مقدار من االحتياطات اإلدارية يف تمويل أعمال مفاجئة
.المرجع للتكلفة
ي تغيي معتمد عىل الخط
✓ The expenditure of funds should be reconciled with any funding limits on the commitment of funds for the project.
ر
.بالمشوع يجب تسوية إنفاق التمويالت مع أي قيود تمويل عىل ز
اليامات التمويل الخاصة
✓ A variance between the funding limits and the planned expenditures will sometimes necessitate the rescheduling
of work to level out the rate of expenditures.
ً
أحيانا التباين ز
.بي حدود التمويل والمرصوفات المخططة يحتم إجراء إعادة جدولة لألعمال لتسوية معدل اإلنفاق
Q- a project manager in construction project, if the Project Sponsor tells you that the project will be terminated
because of Stumbled in the credit limit of the bank. What could have done by the project manager to prevent this
type of situation?
A. Funding Limit Reconciliation
B. Reserve Analysis
C. Critical path method
D. Critical chain method
BY: EL-Sayed Mohsen , PMP®, PMI- RMP®
Lecture 04 : Project Cost Management
3.Determine Budget (Planning)
TT ❑ Financing التمويل
✓ Financing entails acquiring funding for projects. .يستلزم التمويل الحصول عىل األموال الالزمة للمشاري ع
✓ It is common for long-term infrastructure and industrial to seek external sources of funds. If a project is funded
externally, the funding entity may have certain requirements that are required to be met.
وإذا.من الشائع أن تسع مشاري ع البنية التحتية طويلة األجل والمشاري ع الصناعية ومشاري ع الخدمات العامة للحصول عىل مصادر خارجية للتمويل
ِّ ً ً ُم ِّول ر
.الب يلزم استيفاؤها
ي اطات
االشي بعض ل الممو للكيان يكون أن الممكن فمن ،ا خارجي تمويال المشوع
✓ It is used as a basis for comparison to actual results. يستخدم كأساس للمقارنة بالنتائج الفعلية
▪ Total funding requirements and periodic funding requirements (e.g., quarterly, annually) are derived
from the cost baseline.
▪ The cost baseline will include projected
expenditures plus anticipated liabilities.
Cost
Management
• Monitoring the status of the project to update the project costs and managing changes to the cost baseline.
ر ر
.مرجع للتكلفة
ي الب تطرأ عىل الخط ال • ي
ه عملية مراقبة حالة المشوع من أجل تحديث تكاليف المشوع وإدارة التغييات ي
( 4 ) Control Costs
Tools &
Input
Techniques Outputs
TT ❑ Data Analysis
1- Planned Value (PV) قيمة األعمال المخطط تنفيذها عند نقطة زمنية محددة
- It is the authorized budget planned for the work to be accomplished for an activity.
.ه الموازنة المعتمدة المخططة لألعمال المطلوب تنفيذها لنشاط أو مكون بهيكل تجزئة العمل
ي
2- Earned value (EV) القيمة المكتسبة من تنفيذ اعمال فعلية عند نقطة زمنية محددة
- It is the budget associated with the authorized work that has been completed.
.الب تم استكمالها
ه الموازنة المقينة باألعمال المعتمدة ي
ي
ز
الزمب معيا عنه بالفرق ز ً
بي القيمة المكتسبة والقيمة المخططة1- Schedule variance (SV) . ي هو مقياس ألداء الجدول
) ( SV = EV – PV
) ( SPI = EV / PV
)4- Cost Performance index (CPI مقياس كفاءة تكلفة الموارد بالموازنة
) ( CPI = EV / AC
®BY: EL-Sayed Mohsen , PMP®, PMI- RMP
Lecture 04 : Project Cost Management
4.Control Costs (M/C)
Lecture 04 : Project Cost Management
4. Control Costs (M/C)
Example :
Cost/Unit Quantity
Budget 1000 180
Actual 1200 160
PV =1000x180 = 180,000.00
EV =1000x160 = 160,000.00
AC =1200*160 = 192,000.00
Variance :
SV = EV - PV = 160'000 - 180'000 = -20'000 (Behind Schedule)
CV = EV - AC = 160'000 - 192'000 = -32'000 (Over Budget)
Performance Index
SPI = EV / PV = 160'000 / 180'000 = 0.88 (Behind Schedule)
CVI = EV / AC = 160'000 / 192'000 = 0.833 (Over Budget)
Lecture 04 : Project Cost Management
4. Control Costs (M/C)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
$1000
(Months) 0 1 2 3 4 5 9
6 7 8 10
$600 $800
EV PV
Variance :
SV = EV - PV = 600 - 800 = -200 (Behind Schedule
CV = EV - AC = 600 - 900 = -300 (Over Budget)
AC=$900
Performance Index
SPI = EV / PV = 600 / 800 = 0.75 (Behind Schedule)
CVI = EV / AC = 600 / 900 = 0.66 (Over Budget)
Lecture 04 : Project Cost Management
4. Control Costs (M/C)
TT ❑ Data Analysis
❑ Variance analysis: .تحليل التباين
2- If the CPI is expected to be the same for the remainder of the project
ويفيض أن يتم تنفيذ أعمال التقدير حب االكتمال وفق ر
مؤش أداء التكلفة
EAC = BAC/CPI
الياكم نفسه الذي واجهه ر
المشوع حب اليوم ي
3- If both the CPI and SPI influence the remaining work
EAC = AC + [(BAC – EV)/ (CPI x SPI)]
BY: EL-Sayed Mohsen , PMP®, PMI- RMP®
Lecture 04 : Project Cost Management
4. Control Costs (M/C)
• is a measure of the cost performance that is required to be achieved with the remaining resources in order to
meet a specified management goal.
ز
معي هو قياس أداء التكلفة المطلوب تحقيقه باستخدام الموارد المتبقية لتحقيق هدف إداري
• Expressed as the ratio of the :
المتبق
ي نسبة االعمال المتبقية إل التمويل
A- $10,000
B- $60,000
C- $30,000 EAC=AC+BAC-EV
D- $40,000
=20,000+30,000-10,000
=40,000
BY: EL-Sayed Mohsen , PMP®, PMI- RMP®
Q2) You are working on a project to set up a call centre for your client. The duration of
the project is two years. One year has passed, however, only 40% of the work has been
completed against the schedule, which says that by now 50% of the work should have
been completed. To date, you have spent 60% of the budget. What is the cost
performance index of the project?
A- 1.25
B- 1.5 In the question, you have not been provided with the budget,
C- 0.8 therefore, let us assume that the project budget is “x”.
D- 0.67 Earned Value = 40% of the budget
= 0.4x
Actual Cost = 60% of the budget
= 0.6x
We know that the cost performance index = (Earned Value) /
(Actual Cost)
= 0.4x / 0.6x
= 0.67
A- Parametric
B- Analogous
C- Bottom up
D- Critical path method
PMBOK 244
EV> PV
SO the Project is Behind Schedule
EV> AC&PV
SO the Project is Behind Schedule & Over Budget
= Project is going slower than planned