Microsoft Aug 20
Microsoft Aug 20
Microsoft Aug 20
Company name Microsoft There should be a check against the iteration box. If th
Numbers from your base year below ( in consistent units)
This year Last year
Country of incorporation United States
Industry (US) Software (System & Application)
Industry (Global) Software (System & ApplicatiLast 10K Years since last 10K
Revenues $ 143,015.00 $ 125,843.00 1
Operating income or EBIT $ 52,959.00 $ 42,959.00 1
Interest expense $ 2,591.00 $ 2,686.00
Book value of equity $ 118,304.00 $ 102,330.00
Book value of debt $ 82,110.00 $ 86,455.00
Do you have R&D expenses to capitalize? Yes If you want to capitalize R&D, you have to input the
Do you have operating lease commitments? No If you have operating leases, please enter your lease c
Cash and Marketable Securities $ 136,492.00 $ 133,832.00
Cross holdings and other non-operating assets $ - $ -
Minority interests $ - $ -
Number of shares outstanding = 7683.00
Current stock price = $ 210.28
Effective tax rate = 16.50%
Marginal tax rate = 25.00%
The value drivers below:
Revenue growth rate for next year 12.00%
Operating Margin for next year 40.00%
Compounded annual revenue growth rate - years 2-5 = 12.00% Growth Lever
Target pre-tax operating margin (EBIT as % of sales in 40.00% Profitability Lever
Year of convergence 5.00 Speed of convergence level
Sales to capital ratio (for computing reinvestment) = 1.44 Efficency of Growth Lever
Market numbers
Riskfree rate 0.70%
Initial cost of capital = 7.11%
Other inputs
Do you have employee options outstanding? No
Number of options outstanding = 7.72
Average strike price = $1.29
Average maturity = 7.00
Standard deviation on stock price = 45.00%
Default assumptions.
In stable growth, I will assume that your firm will have a cost of capital similar to that of typical mature companies (riskfree rate + 4.5%)
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Mature companies generally see their risk levels appr
If yes, enter the cost of capital after year 10 = 7.11% Though some sectors, even in stable growth, may have
I will assume that your firm will earn a return on capital equal to its cost of capital after year 10. I am assuming that whatever competitive
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes Mature companies find it difficult to generate returns
If yes, enter the return on capital you expect after year 1 12% But there are significant exceptions among companies
I will assume that your firm has no chance of failure over the foreseeable future.
Do you want to override this assumption = No Many young, growth companies fail, especially if they
If yes, enter the probability of failure = 20% Tough to estimate but a key input.
What do you want to tie your proceeds in failure to? V B: Book value of capital, V= Estimated fair value for
Enter the distress proceeds as percentage of book or fair 50% This can be zero, if the assets will be worth nothing if
I will assume that your effective tax rate will adjust to your marginal tax rate by your terminal year. If you override this assumption, I will l
Do you want to override this assumption = No
I will assume that you have no losses carried forward from prior years ( NOL) coming into the valuation. If you have a money losing compa
Do you want to override this assumption = No Check the financial statements.
If yes, enter the NOL that you are carrying over into yea $250.00 An NOL will shield your income from taxes, even afte
I will asssume that today's risk free rate will prevail in perpetuity. If you override this assumption, I will change the riskfree rate after year 1
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes If yes, you will be asked to enter a normal risk free ra
If yes, enter the riskfree rate after year 10 2.00% Enter your estimate of what the riskfree rate (in your
I will assume that the growth rate in perpetuity will be equal to the risk free rate. This allows for both valuation consistency and prevents "im
Do you want to override this assumption = No This is an option to let you use a negative growth rate
If yes, enter the growth rate in perpetuity -5.00% This can be negative, if you feel the company will dec
I have assumed that none of the cash is trapped (in foreign countries) and that there is no additional tax liability coming due and that cash is a neutral ass
Do you want to override this assumption No
If yes, enter trapped cash (if taxes) or entire balance (if mistru $140,000.00 Cash that is trapped in foreign markets (and subject to addi
& Average tax rate of the foreign markets where the cash is t 15% Additional tax rate due on trapped cash or discount being a
run this spreadsheet, go into preferences in Excel and check under Calculation options
k against the iteration box. If there is not, you will get circular reasoning errors.
w ( in consistent units)
ze R&D, you have to input the numbers into the R&D worksheet.
ases, please enter your lease commitments in the lease worksheet below and I will convert to debt
Computed numbers: Here is what your company's numbers look like, relative to industry.
If you are not working in US dollars, you should add the inflation differential to the industry averages.
Company Industry (US datIndustry (Global data)
Revenue growth in the most recent year = 13.65% 15.04% 15.16%
Pre-tax operating margin in the most recent year 40.10% 22.25% 19.63%
Sales to capital ratio in most recent year = 1.44 0.85 0.93
Return on invested capital in most recent year= 48.20% 20.03% 18.19%
Standard deviation in stock prices = 49.50% 50.45%
Cost of capital = 7.67% 9.30%
Valuation Output Feedback (for you to use to fine tune your inputs, if you want)
Revenues in year 10, based on your revenue growth = $ 343,422
Pre-tax Operating Income in year 10, based on your operating m $ 137,369
Return on invested capital in year 10, based on your sales/capital 43.19%
Check the Diagnostics worksheet for more details.
mpanies fail, especially if they have trouble raising cash. Many distressed companies fail, because they have trouble making debt payments.
eign markets (and subject to additoinal tax) or cash that is being discounted by the market (because of management mistrust)
trapped cash or discount being applied to cash balance because of mistrust.
orporate it into your stable cost of capital estimate.
debt payments.
own in uncharted territory.
Base year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Revenue growth rate 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00%
Revenues ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
EBIT (Operating) mar 40.10% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00%
EBIT (Operating inc $57,348.33 $64,070.72 $71,759.21 $80,370.31 $90,014.75 ### ### ###
Tax rate 16.50% 16.50% 16.50% 16.50% 16.50% 16.50% 18.20% 19.90%
EBIT(1-t) $47,885.86 $53,499.05 $59,918.94 $67,109.21 $75,162.32 $84,181.79 $90,714.70 $95,935.79
- Reinvestment 11922.04 $13,352.68 $14,955.01 $16,749.61 $18,759.56 $17,508.92 $15,407.85
FCFF $41,577.01 $46,566.25 $52,154.20 $58,412.71 $65,422.23 $73,205.78 $80,527.94
NOL $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Implied variables
Sales to capital ratio 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
Invested capital $ 99,350 $ 111,272 $ 124,625 $ 139,580 $ 156,330 $ 175,089 $ 192,598 $ 208,006
ROIC 48.20% 48.08% 48.08% 48.08% 48.08% 48.08% 47.10% 46.12%
8 9 10 Terminal year Check these revenues against
6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 2.00% a. Overall market size
### ### ### ### b. Largest companies in this market
40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00%
### ### ### ### $ 80,020.33 This is is how much your operating income
grew over the ten-year period.
21.60% 23.30% 25.00% 25.00%
$99,533.68 ### ### ###
$12,480.36 $ 8,819.45 $ 4,586.12 $17,171.08 $ 151,712.69 This is how much capital you
invested over the ten year period.
$87,053.32 $92,450.99 $96,420.26 $85,855.42
$ - $ - $ - $ -
The Assumptions
Base year In 2020 Years 1-5 Years 6-10 After year 10
Revenues (a) $ 143,015 12.0% 12.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Operating margin ( 40.10% 40.0% 40.10% 40.00% 40.00%
Tax rate 16.50% 16.50% 25.00% 25.00%
Reinvestment (c ) Sales to Capital = 1.44 16.67%
Return on capital 48.20% Marginal ROIC = 57.47% 12.00%
Cost of capital (d) 7.11% 7.11% 7.11%
The Cash Flows
Revenues Operating MargiEBIT EBIT (1-t) Reinvestment
1 $ 160,177 40.00% $ 64,071 $ 53,499 $ 11,922
2 $ 179,398 40.00% $ 71,759 $ 59,919 $ 13,353
3 $ 200,926 40.00% $ 80,370 $ 67,109 $ 14,955
4 $ 225,037 40.00% $ 90,015 $ 75,162 $ 16,750
5 $ 252,041 40.00% $ 100,817 $ 84,182 $ 18,760
6 $ 277,245 40.00% $ 110,898 $ 90,715 $ 17,509
7 $ 299,425 40.00% $ 119,770 $ 95,936 $ 15,408
8 $ 317,391 40.00% $ 126,956 $ 99,534 $ 12,480
9 $ 330,086 40.00% $ 132,034 $ 101,270 $ 8,819
10 $ 336,688 40.00% $ 134,675 $ 101,006 $ 4,586
Terminal year $ 343,422 40.00% $ 137,369 $ 103,027 $ 17,171
The Value
Terminal value $ 1,679,884
PV(Terminal value) $ 845,176
PV (CF over next 10 years) $ 459,474
Value of operating assets = $ 1,304,650
Adjustment for distress $ - Probability of failure =
- Debt & Mnority Interests $ 82,110
+ Cash & Other Non-operating assets $ 136,492
Value of equity $ 1,359,032
- Value of equity options $ -
Number of shares 7,683.00
Value per share $ 176.89 Stock was trading at =
ce and Windows for its income, into a more Tell your story about the company. Keep it
revenues, and its cloud business will focuses on the company's businesses and tie it
into the three key levers of value: cash flows,
growth and risk
Link to story
Duopoly, growing also
Industry margins, market
close to
historical
Global/US marginal tax rate over Tie each assumption to the part of your story
Maintined at Boeing's current levthat relates to it.
Excess capacity being utilized fo
Cost of capital decreases to mkt
FCFF
$ 41,577
$ 46,566 These are the numbers that come from your
$ 52,154 assumptions. The revenues over time reflect
$ 58,413 your revenue growth, the operating margins
$ 65,422 evolve towards your target margin and your
tax rate will change, if you have set it to. The
$ 73,206 reinvestment is estimated using the sales to
$ 80,528 capital ratio for the first 10 years and based
$ 87,053 on a reinvestment rate in stable growth (g/
$ 92,451 ROC).
$ 96,420
$ 85,855
$210.28
VALUATION DIAGNOSTICS
Invested capital at start of valuation $ 99,350.33
Invested capital at end of valuation $ 233,891.94
Change in invested capital over 10 years $ 134,541.61
Change in EBIT*(1–t) (after-tax operating income) over 10 yea $ 77,326.83
Marginal ROIC over 10 years 57.47%
ROIC at end of valuation 43.19%
Average WACC over the 10 years (compounded) 7.11%
Your calculated value as a percent of current price 84.12%
After-Tax
Year Operating Change in Sales to Reinvestm FCFF Capital Implied
Income Revenues Capital ent Invested ROC
d1 = 4.9148332
N (d1) = 0.9999996
d2 = 3.7242451
N (d2) = 0.999902
Debt
Book Value of Straight Debt = $ 82,110.00
Interest Expense on Debt = $ 2,591.00
Average Maturity = 3
Approach for estimating pre-tax cost of debt Actual rating
If direct input, input the pre-tax cost of debt 4.000%
If actual rating, input the rating Aaa/AAA
If synethetic rating, input the type of compan 1
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 1.46%
Tax Rate = 25%
Preferred Stock
Number of Preferred Shares = 0
Current Market Price per Share= 70
Annual Dividend per Share = 5
Output
Estimating Market Value of Straight Debt = ###
Estimated Value of Straight Debt in Convertible = $ -
Value of Debt in Operating leases = $ -
Estimated Value of Equity in Convertible = $ -
Levered Beta for equity = 1.18
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortize R&D expense 3 ! If in doubt, use the lookup table below
Enter the current year's R&D expense = ### The maximum allowed is ten years
Enter R& D expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined by the amortization period
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input above.
Year R& D Expenses
-1 16876.00 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 14726.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
-3 13037.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Output
Year R&D Expense Unamortized portion Amortization this year
Current 19269.00 1.00 19269.00
-1 16876.00 0.67 11250.67 $ 5,625.33
-2 14726.00 0.33 4908.67 $ 4,908.67
-3 13037.00 0.00 0.00 $ 4,345.67
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
Value of Research Asset = $35,428.33 ###
Adjustment to Operating Income = $4,389.33 ! A positive number indicates an increase in operating income (add to reported EBIT)
Tax Effect of R&D Expensing $1,097
tments to operating income, net
he amortization period
Output
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 1.46% ! If you do not have a cost of debt, use the synthetic rating estimator
Number of years embedded in yr 6 e 3 ! I use the average lease expense over the first five years
to estimate the number of years of expenses in yr 6
Converting Operating Leases into debt
Year Commitment Present Value
1 $ 287.00 $ 282.87
2 $ 235.00 $ 228.29
3 $ 194.00 $ 185.75
4 $ 151.00 $ 142.49
5 $ 98.00 $ 91.15
6 and beyon $ 201.67 $ 546.67 ! Commitment beyond year 6 converted into an annuity for ten years
Debt Value of leases = $1,477.21
Restated Financials
Depreciation on Operating Lease Asset = $ 184.65 ! I use straight line depreciation
Adjustment to Operating Earnings = $110.35 ! Add this amount to pre-tax operating income
Adjustment to Total Debt outstanding = $1,477.21 ! Add this amount to debt
Adjustment to Depreciation = $184.65
Mature Market ERP + 5.01% Updated August 1, 2020
If you want to update the spreads listed below, please visit http://www.bondsonline.com
For large manufacturing firms
If interest coverage ratio is
> ≤ to Rating is Spread is
-100000 0.199999 D2/D 21.66%
0.2 0.649999 C2/C 16.25%
0.65 0.799999 Ca2/CC 12.38%
0.8 1.249999 Caa/CCC 11.75%
1.25 1.499999 B3/B- 10.08%
1.5 1.749999 B2/B 8.25%
1.75 1.999999 B1/B+ 4.31%
2 2.2499999 Ba2/BB 2.95%
2.25 2.49999 Ba1/BB+ 2.32%
2.5 2.999999 Baa2/BBB 1.81%
3 4.249999 A3/A- 1.34%
4.25 5.499999 A2/A 1.19%
5.5 6.499999 A1/A+ 1.08%
6.5 8.499999 Aa2/AA 0.86%
8.50 100000 Aaa/AAA 0.76%
$75,872.00
$2,404.00
$24,171.00
$276.00