Apple 2024
Apple 2024
Apple 2024
Default assumptions.
In stable growth, I will assume that your firm will have a cost of capital similar to that of typical mature companies (
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes
If yes, enter the cost of capital after year 10 = 8.00%
I will assume that your firm will earn a return on capital equal to its cost of capital after year 10. I am assuming tha
Do you want to override this assumption = Yes
If yes, enter the return on capital you expect after year 10 15%
I will assume that your firm has no chance of failure over the foreseeable future.
Do you want to override this assumption = No
If yes, enter the probability of failure = 12%
What do you want to tie your proceeds in failure to? V
Enter the distress proceeds as percentage of book or fair value 50%
I assume that reinvestment in a year translates into growth in the next year, i.e., there is a one year lag between reinv
Do you want override this assumption = No
If yes, enter a different lag (0 = no lag to 3 = lag of 3 years) 1
I will assume that your effective tax rate will adjust to your marginal tax rate by your terminal year. If you override t
Do you want to override this assumption = No
I will assume that you have no losses carried forward from prior years ( NOL) coming into the valuation. If you have
Do you want to override this assumption = No
If yes, enter the NOL that you are carrying over into year 1 $731.40
I will asssume that today's risk free rate will prevail in perpetuity. If you override this assumption, I will change the r
Do you want to override this assumption = No
If yes, enter the riskfree rate after year 10 2.00%
I will assume that the growth rate in perpetuity will be equal to the risk free rate. This allows for both valuation cons
Do you want to override this assumption = No
If yes, enter the growth rate in perpetuity -5.00%
I have assumed that none of the cash is trapped (in foreign countries) and that there is no additional tax liability com
Do you want to override this assumption No
If yes, enter trapped cash (if taxes) or entire balance (if mistrust) $140,000.00
& Average tax rate of the foreign markets where the cash is trapped 15%
Input cell Calculated cell
Important: Before you run this spreadsheet, go into preferences in Excel and check under Calculation options
There should be a check against the iteration box. If there is not, you will get circular reasoning errors.
from your base year below ( in consistent units)
Last year Updated in January 2024 with updated Industry averages and risk premiums
Company
Revenue growth in the most recent year 2.55%
Growth Lever - Next year Pre-tax operating margin in the most rece 31.77%
Profitability Lever - Next year Sales to capital ratio in most recent year 6.38
Growth Lever - Long term Marginal sales to capital ratio = NA
Profitability Lever - Long term Return on invested capital in most recent 172.57%
Speed of convergence level Standard deviation in stock prices =
Efficency of Growth Lever (first 5 yeaCost of capital =
Efficency of Growth Lever (years 6-10)
Valuation Output Feedback (for you to use to fine tune your inputs, if
Revenues in year 10, based on your revenue growth =
Do not input. Go to cost of capital
sheet. Pre-tax Operating Income in year 10, based on your operatin
Return on invested capital in year 10, based on your sales/capi
Check the Diagnostics worksheet for more details.
that of typical mature companies (riskfree rate + 4.5%)
Mature companies generally see their risk levels approach the average
Though some sectors, even in stable growth, may have higher risk. If you change your risk free rate after year 10 (se
l after year 10. I am assuming that whatever competitive advantages you have today will fade over time.
Mature companies find it difficult to generate returns that exceed the cost of capital
But there are significant exceptions among companies with long-lasting competitive advantages.
Many young, growth companies fail, especially if they have trouble raising cash. Many distressed companies fail, be
Tough to estimate but a key input. Use the failure rate worksheet, if necessary.
B: Book value of capital, V= Estimated fair value for the company
This can be zero, if the assets will be worth nothing if the firm fails.
ere is a one year lag between reinvesting and generating growth from that reinvestment.
our terminal year. If you override this assumption, I will leave the tax rate at your effective tax rate.
ming into the valuation. If you have a money losing company, you may want to override tis.
Check the financial statements.
An NOL will shield your income from taxes, even after you start making money.
his assumption, I will change the riskfree rate after year 10.
If yes, you will be asked to enter a normal risk free rate and your growth in perpetuity will be adjusted accordingly.
Enter your estimate of what the riskfree rate (in your currency of choice) will be after year 10
his allows for both valuation consistency and prevents "impossible" growth rates.
This is an option to let you use a negative growth rate in perpetuity or to even liquidate the firm.
This can be negative, if you feel the company will decline (and disappear) after growth is done. If you let it exceed th
re is no additional tax liability coming due and that cash is a neutral asset.
Cash that is trapped in foreign markets (and subject to additoinal tax) or cash that is being discounted by the market
Additional tax rate due on trapped cash or discount being applied to cash balance because of mistrust.
nder Calculation options
easoning errors.
15.11% 6.44%
42.94% 32.53%
7.54% 10.95% 10.31% 10.77% 11.01%
$ 270,439
159.83%
risk free rate after year 10 (see cell B57 & 58), you should incorporate the change into your stable cost of capital estimate.
distressed companies fail, because they have trouble making debt payments.
is done. If you let it exceed the risk free rate, you are on your own in uncharted territory.
Implied variables
Sales to capital ratio 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Invested capital $ 60,498 $ 66,717 $ 73,403 $ 80,591 $ 88,317 $ 95,866 $ 103,119 $ 109,959
ROIC 172.57% 185.51% 190.47% 190.81% 191.43% 192.31% 184.71% 177.78%
8 9 10 Terminal year Check these revenues against
5.45% 4.76% 4.08% 4.08% a. Overall market size
$ 661,941.67 $ 693,476.57 $ 721,770.42 $ 751,218.65 b. Largest companies in this market
36.00% 36.00% 36.00% 36.00%
$ 238,299.00 $ 249,651.57 $ 259,837.35 $ 270,438.71 $ 147,905.38 This is is how much your operating income
grew over the ten-year period.
20.92% 22.96% 25.00% 25.00%
$ 188,446.85 $ 192,331.57 $ 194,878.01 $ 202,829.04
$ 6,306.98 $ 5,658.77 $ 5,889.65 $ 55,169.50 $ 122,486.44 This is how much capital you
invested over the ten year period.
$ 182,139.87 $ 186,672.80 $ 188,988.37 $ 147,659.54
$ - $ - $ - $ -
The Assumptions
Base year Next year Years 2-5 Years 6-10
Revenues (a) $385,706.00 7.5% 7.50% Changes to
Apple
Apple Feb-24
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Terminal year
7.50% 7.50% 6.82% 6.13% 5.45% 4.76% 4.08% 4.08%
### ### ### ### ### ### $721,770 $ 751,219
35.15% 36.00% 36.00% 36.00% 36.00% 36.00% 36.00% 36.00%
### ### ### ### ### ### $259,837 $ 270,439
### ### ### ### ### ### $194,878 $ 202,829
$ 7,726 $ 7,548 $ 7,254 $ 6,840 $ 6,307 $ 5,659 $ 5,890 $ 55,169
### ### ### ### ### ### $188,988 $ 147,660
###
Competitive Advantages
Strong competitive edges
Feb-24
Terminal Value
4.08%
8.00%
15.00%
27.20%
minal year
Step 1: Check revenue growth rate
7.50% 7.50%
Year 5 Year 10
$ 553,730.84 $ 721,770.42
Year 5 Year 10
36.00% 36.00%
Year 5 Year 10
5.00 5.00
1. What are the margins of the industry that the company is in?
2. What are the unit economics of the business? (How much
does it cost you to make the extra unit that you sell?
3. What does the competition in this business look like?
1. is the growth that you are forecasting bounce-back growth or new growth?
2. How much excess capacity do you have to service near term growth?
3. Does investment efficiency in this business change as companies get bigger?
d1 = 5.0195
N (d1) = 1.0000
d2 = 3.8289
N (d2) = 0.9999
7.72
15,718
4.08%
0.2025
0.00%
4.08%
If you have negative operating income, this spreadsheet will offer you a D rating. Do n
use that rating as your cost of debt for a going concern. Insread give your company a
but going concern rating like BB and use that cost of debt.
If you want to update the spreads listed below, please visit http://www.bondsonline.c
For large manufacturing firms De
If interest coverage ratio is Rating
> ≤ to Rating isSpread is AAA
-1E+05 0.2 D2/D 20.00% AA
0.2 0.65 C2/C 17.00% A
0.65 0.8 Ca2/CC 11.78% BBB
0.8 1.25 Caa/CCC 8.51% BB
1.25 1.5 B3/B- 5.24% B
1.5 1.75 B2/B 3.61% CCC/C
1.75 2 B1/B+ 3.14%
2 2.25 Ba2/BB 2.21%
2.25 2.5 Ba1/BB+ 1.74%
2.5 3 Baa2/BBB1.47%
3 4.25 A3/A- 1.21%
4.25 5.5 A2/A 1.07%
5.5 6.5 A1/A+ 0.92%
6.5 8.5 Aa2/AA 0.70%
8.50 100000Aaa/AAA 0.59%
e this spreadsheet.
nder calculation options in excel) is checked.
ww.bondsonline.com
Default Probabilities over time (1 - 10 year time horizons)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.00% 0.03% 0.13% 0.24% 0.35% 0.45% 0.51% 0.59% 0.64% 0.70%
0.02% 0.06% 0.12% 0.21% 0.31% 0.42% 0.50% 0.58% 0.65% 0.72%
0.05% 0.14% 0.23% 0.35% 0.47% 0.62% 0.79% 0.93% 1.08% 1.24%
0.16% 0.45% 0.78% 1.17% 1.58% 1.98% 2.33% 2.67% 3.00% 3.32%
0.61% 1.92% 3.48% 5.05% 6.52% 7.85% 9.01% 10.04% 10.97% 11.78%
3.33% 7.71% 11.55% 14.58% 16.93% 18.83% 20.36% 21.60% 22.70% 23.74%
27.08% 36.64% 41.41% 44.10% 46.19% 47.09% 48.26% 49.05% 49.76% 50.38%
R & D Converter
This spreadsheet converts R&D expenses from operating to capital expenses. It makes the appropriat
income, the book value of assets and the book value of equity.
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortiz 3 ! If in doubt, use the lookup table below
Enter the current year's R&D expense = ### The maximum allowed is ten years
Enter R& D expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input a
YearR& D Expenses
-1 29915.00 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 26251.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
-3 21914.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Output
Year R&D ExpenseUnamortized portionAmortization this year
Current 29902.00 1.00 29902.00
-1 29915.00 0.67 19943.33 ###
-2 26251.00 0.33 8750.33 ###
-3 21914.00 0.00 0.00 ###
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $ -
Value of Research Asset = ### ###
Adjustment to Operating I ### ! A positive number indicates an increase in operating income (ad
Tax Effect of R&D Expensing $969
makes the appropriate adjustments to operating income, net
up table below
Output
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 4.78% ! If you do not have a cost of debt, use the synthetic rating estimator
Number of years embedded in yr 6 e 3 ! I use the average lease expense over the first five years
to estimate the number of years of expenses in yr 6
Converting Operating Leases into debt
Year Commitment Present Value
1 $ 287.00 $ 273.91
2 $ 235.00 $ 214.05
3 $ 194.00 $ 168.64
4 $ 151.00 $ 125.27
5 $ 98.00 $ 77.60
6 and beyon $ 201.67 $ 436.64 ! Commitment beyond year 6 converted into an annuity for ten years
Debt Value of leases = $1,296.11
Restated Financials
Depreciation on Operating Lease Asset = $ 162.01 ! I use straight line depreciation
Adjustment to Operating Earnings = $132.99 ! Add this amount to pre-tax operating income
Adjustment to Total Debt outstanding = $1,296.11 ! Add this amount to debt
Adjustment to Depreciation = $162.01
heet had to be used for every firm
ommitments, since accountants
expenses as operating expenses. In
P made the long-overdue change to
d for firms that follow these
on that I am doing on this
one by accountants, with lease debt
already adjusted. If that is the case,
ase debt as part of debt in the input
e this spreadsheet, since you will be
You can use this spreadsheet to compute your cost of capital. You can either use the built-in data to compute key inputs (beta, equity risk premium, default
you can update the ERP numbers to reflect a more current mature market premuum (since the spreadsheet uses the start of the year numbers).
Debt
Book Value of Straight Debt = $ 108,040.00
Interest Expense on Debt = $ 3,933.00
Average Maturity = 3
Approach for estimating pre-tax cost of debt Actual rating
If direct input, input the pre-tax cost of debt 4.000%
If actual rating, input the rating Aa2/AA
If synethetic rating, input the type of compan 2
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 4.78%
Tax Rate = 25%
Preferred Stock
Number of Preferred Shares = 0
Current Market Price per Share= 70
Annual Dividend per Share = 5
Output
Estimating Market Value of Straight Debt = $104,672.96
Estimated Value of Straight Debt in Convertible = $ -
Value of Debt in Operating leases = $ -
Estimated Value of Equity in Convertible = $ -
Levered Beta for equity = 0.90
Approach 2: industry average cost of capital, adjusted for riskfre rate differences
Industry Multibusiness(US)
Cost of capital, adjusted for riskfree rate differenc 8.84%
Region First Decile First Quartile Median Third Quartile Ninth Decile
Emerging 6.45% 7.51% 8.82% 10.02% 11.85%
Europe 7.12% 8.26% 9.48% 10.95% 12.85%
Global 5.40% 6.53% 8.11% 9.07% 9.82%
Japan 6.68% 7.66% 8.82% 9.67% 10.91%
US 6.43% 7.75% 8.60% 8.84% 9.37%
These costs of capital are all in US dollars and reflect the US dollar riskfree rate at the start of the year. Once you make your
choice, though, I will adjust the rate by the difference in riskfree rates, effectively converting currency and bringing it up to date.
ts (beta, equity risk premium, default spread) or enter them directly. If you choose to use the built in ERP data,
art of the year numbers).
Thus, if you use the 10-year likelihood of failure, the chance of failure for a BB rated firm is 11.78%.
Factors to consider
1. The likelihood of failure decreases for larger firms.
2. The likelihood of failure decreases with access to capital, and is thus lower for pub
3. The likelihood of failure decreases as revenue growth increases, since hope for futu
4. The likelihood of failure decreases with better unit economics, higher gross margin
10
0.70%
0.72%
1.24%
3.32%
11.78%
23.74%
50.38%
ed firm is 11.78%.
s thus lower for publicly traded firms or firms with multiple high profile VCs
s, since hope for future growth will sustain the firm.
higher gross margins on the additional units sold
eau of Labor Statistics (2022)
Transportation
Information
Health Care
All Sectors
76.90% 75.20% 81.40% 78.30%
63.60% 62.70% 72.20% 66.20%
52.30% 53.30% 67.40% 56.60%
45.00% 46.40% 61.30% 49.80%
41.10% 41.90% 55.90% 45.40%
37.70% 37.20% 54.80% 42.30%
34.90% 34.00% 52.90% 39.60%
32.40% 31.40% 48.40% 37.10%
30.50% 27.40% 45.50% 34.80%
28.40% 25.50% 42.50% 32.80%
Mature Market ERP + 4.50% Updated February 1, 2024
Changing this number will update all your country equity risk premiums.
Last Annual First X months: Last yearFirst X months: Current yearTrailing 12 month
Revenues $15,794.34 $7,608.13 $9,444.11 $17,630.32
Technology & Content $1,221.81 $581.41 $756.00 $1,396.40
Operating income or EBIT $1,605.23 $908.79 $1,165.50 $1,861.94
Interest expenses $420.49 $182.82 $287.56 $525.23
Book value of equity $5,238.77 $6,105.55
Book value of debt $10,360.00 $12,594.14
Do you have operating lease commitments?
Cash and cross holdings $3,794.48 $5,004.25
Non-operating assets $0.00 $0.00
Minority interests $0.00 $0.00
Number of shares outstanding =
Current stock price =
Effective tax rate = 25.88% 25.77% 16.49%
Marginal tax rate =
Lease commitments
Year 1 172.5 NA
Year 2 139.4 NA
Year 3 145.2 NA
Year 4 156.5 Copy into operating NA
Year 5 151.2 lease worksheet NA
Beyond year 5 943.63 NA
$75,872.00
$2,404.00
$24,171.00
$276.00