DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Introduction
We discussed the basic concepts of probability and described how the rules of addition and multiplication
were used to compute probabilities. Now we expand the study of probability to include the concept of a
probability distribution.

What is a Probability Distribution?

A probability distribution shows the possible outcomes of an experiment and the probability of each of
these outcomes.

Probability distribution: A listing of all the outcomes of an experiment and the

probability associated with each outcome.

How can we generate a probability distribution? As an

example, the possible outcomes on the roll of a single
die are shown at right.
Each face should appear on about one-sixth of the rolls. Number of Probability
The table shows the possible outcomes and corresponding Spots on Fraction Decimal
probabilities for this experiment. It is a discrete Die
distribution because only certain outcomes are possible and 1 1/6 = 0.1667
the distribution is a result of counting the various 2 1/6 = 0.1667
outcomes. 3 1/6 = 0.1667
4 1/6 = 0.1667
There are several important features of the discrete 5 1/6 = 0.1667
probability distribution: 6 1/6 = 0.1667
1. The listing is exhaustive; that is, all the possible Total 6/6 = 1.0002
outcomes are included.
2. The total (sum) of all possible outcomes is 1.0. (In the example, total is greater than 1 because of
rounding.)
3. The probability of any particular outcome is between 0 and 1 inclusive. (See the table above.)
4. The outcomes are mutually exclusive, meaning, for example, a 6 spot and a 2 spot cannot appear
at the same time on the roll of one die.
This discrete probability distribution,
presented above as a table, may also be 0.3
portrayed in graphic form as shown on the 0.25
right.
0.2
Probability

By convention the probability is shown on

the Y-axis (the vertical axis) and the 0.15
outcomes on the X-axis (the horizontal axis). 0.1
This probability distribution is often referred
0.05
to as a uniform distribution.
0
A probability distribution can also be 1 2 3 4 5 6
expressed in equation form. Num ber of Spots
For example:

P(x) = 1/6, where x can assume the values 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

Random Variable
In any experiment of chance, the outcomes occur randomly. A random variable is a value determined by
the outcome of an experiment.

Random Variable: A variable whose value is determined by the outcome of a random

experiment.

A random variable may have two forms: discrete or continuous. A discrete random variable may
assume only distinct values and is usually the result of counting.

Discrete random variable: A variable that can assume only certain clearly separated
values.

For example, the number of highway deaths in Arkansas on Memorial Day weekend may be 1, 2, 3,…
Another example is the number of students earning a grade of B in your statistics class. In both instances
the number of occurrences result from counting. Note that there can be 12 deaths or 15 B=s but there
cannot be 12.63 deaths or 15.27 B grades.

If we measure something, such as the diameter of a tree, the length of a field, or the time it takes to run
the Boston Marathon, the variable is called a continuous random variable.

Continuous random variable: A variable that can assume one of an infinitely large
number of values within certain limitations.

In brief, if the problem involves counting something, the resulting distribution is usually a discrete
probability distribution. If the distribution is the result of a measurement, then it is usually a continuous
probability distribution.

What is the difference between a random variable and a probability distribution? A probability
distribution lists all the possible outcomes as well as their corresponding probabilities. A random variable
lists only the outcomes. We will examine the continuous random variable and the continuous probability
distribution in the next chapter.

The Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of a Probability Distribution

We computed the mean and variance of a frequency distribution. The mean is a measure of location and
the variance is a measure of the spread of the data. In a similar fashion the mean (Φ ) and the variance
(σ2) summarize a probability distribution.

The Mean
The mean µ , or expected value E(x), of a probability distribution is its long-run average. It is computed
by the following formula:
 Mean of a Probability Distribution µ = Σ  x P ( x )  [5 − 1]
This formula directs you to multiply each outcome (x) by its probability P(x); and then add the products.

Variance and Standard Deviation

While the mean is a typical value used to summarize a discrete probability distribution, it does not tell us
anything about the spread in the distribution. The variance tells us about the spread or variation in the
data. The variance is computed using the following formula:

Variance of a Probability Distribution σ = Σ ( x − µ ) P ( x) 

2 2
[5 − 2]
 
The steps in computing the variance using formula [5-2] are:

1. Subtract the mean (µ ) from each outcome ( x ) and square these differences.

2. Multiply each squared difference by its probability P( x )

3. Sum these products to arrive at the variance.
The standard deviation (σ) of a discrete probability distribution is found by taking the square root of σ
2
, thus σ = σ 2 .

Binomial Probability Distribution

One of the most widely used discrete probability distributions is the binomial probability distribution. It
has the following characteristics:

1. An outcome of an experiment is classified into one of two mutually exclusive categoriesC a

success or a failure.
2. The random variable is the number of successes in a fixed number of trials.
3. The probability of a success stays the same for each trial. So does the probability of a failure.
4. The trials are independent, meaning that the outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of
any other trial.
Illustrations of each characteristic are:

1. Each outcome is classified into one of two mutually exclusive categories. An outcome is
classified as either a “success” or a “failure.” For example, 40 percent of the students at a
particular university are enrolled in the College of Business. For a selected student there are
only two possible outcomesCthe student is enrolled in the College of Business (designated a
success) or he/she is not enrolled in the College of Business (designated a failure).
2. The binomial distribution is the result of counting the number of successes in a fixed sample
size. If we select 5 students, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 could be enrolled in the College of Business.
This rules out the possibility of 3.45 of the students being enrolled in the College of
Business. That is, there cannot be fractional counts.
3. The probability of a success remains the same from trial to trial. In the example regarding the
College of Business, the probability of a success remains at 40 percent for all five students
selected.
 4. Each sampled item is independent. This means that if the first student selected is enrolled in the
College of Business, it has no effect on whether the second or the fourth one selected will be
in the College of Business.

How a Binomial Probability Distribution is Computed

To construct a binomial probability distribution we need to know:

(1) The number of trials, designated n.

(2) The probability of success (π ) on each trial.

The binomial probability distribution is constructed using the formula

Binomial Probability Distribution P( x) = n C x (π ) x (1 − π )n − x [5 − 3]

Where:
n Cx denotes a combination of n items selected x at a time
n is the number of trials
x is the number of observed successes
π is the probability of success on each trial (Do not confuse it with the mathematical constant
3.416.)
The mean (µ) and variance (σ 2) of a binomial distribution can be computed by formulas.

Mean of a binomial distribution µ = nπ [5 − 4]

Variance of a binomial distribution σ 2 = nπ ( 1 − π ) [5 − 5]

Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

To qualify as a binomial distribution, the probability of a success must remain constant. What if this
requirement is not met? This usually happens when the size of the population is small and samples are
drawn from the population and not replaced. This causes the probability of a success to change from one
trial (or sample) to the next. This means the trails are not independent.

For example, if a class consisted of 20 students, 12 males and 8 females, what is the probability of
selecting two people to serve on a committee who are both female? If Ms. Smith was selected on the first
trial, she cannot be selected again because she is already on the committee. Thus the outcome of the
second trial depends on the outcome of the first trial. The probability of a female on the first selection is
8/20, and if a female is selected first there are 7 females out of the 19 remaining students. Hence the
probability of selecting two females for the committee is 0.147, found by (8/20)(7/19).

This assumes that the population is finite, that is, the number in the population is known.

Finite population: A population consisting of a small number of individuals, objects, or

measurements.

This probability may also be calculated using the hypergeometric distribution, which is described by the
formula:
 ( S C x ) ( N − S Cn − x )
Hypergeometric Distribution P ( x) = [5 − 6]
( N Cn )
Where:
N is the size of the population.
S is the number of successes in the population.
n is the size of the sample or the number of trials.
x is the number of successes in the sample.
C is the symbol for a combination.

In the example N = 20, S = 8, n = 2, and x = 2. Therefore,

P ( 2) =
( 8 C2 ) ( 20−8 C2− 2 )
( 20 C2 )
 8!  12!   8 ⋅ 7  1 
     
2!6!  0!12!   2  1  28
= = = = 0.147
 20!   20 ⋅ 19  190
   
 2!18!   2 

Hence, the probability of selecting two students to serve on a committee and having that committee
consist of two females is 0.147. This is the same probability we computed earlier.

Poisson Probability Distribution

Another discrete probability distribution is the Poisson probability distribution.

Poisson probability distribution: Has the same four characteristics as the binomial, but
in addition the probability of success (π ) is small, and n, the number of trials, is
relatively large.

The formula for computing the probability of a success is:

µ x e− µ
Poisson Distribution P ( x) = [5 − 7]
x!
Where:
P(x) is the probability for a specified value of x.
x is the number of occurrences (successes).
µ is the arithmetic mean number of occurrences (successes) in a particular interval.
e is the mathematical constant 2.71828. (base of the Naperian logarithmic system)

Note that the mean number of successes, µ, can be determined by nπ , where n is the total number of
trials and π is the probability of success.

Mean of a Poisson Distribution µ = nπ [5 − 8]

As an example where the Poisson distribution is applicable, suppose electric utility bills are based on the
actual reading of the electric meter. In 1 out of 100 cases the meter is incorrectly read (π = 0.01). Suppose
the number of errors that appear in the processing of 500 customer bills approximates the Poisson
distribution (n = 500). In this case the mean number of incorrect bills is 5, found by µ = nπ = 500
(0.01).

Finding the probability of exactly two errors appearing in 500 customer bills is rather tedious. Instead we
merely refer to the Poisson distribution in Poissons table. Locate by µ = (5.0) at the top of a set of
columns. Then find the x of 2 in the left column and read across to the column headed by 5.0. The
probability of exactly 2 billing errors is 0.0842.