1.1 Why You Need A Trading System
1.1 Why You Need A Trading System
1.1 Why You Need A Trading System
Systems
something which is rigorously scientific and surely beyond the retail-oriented trumpery
wares of common technical analysis, expect to meet many system traders that resell
themselves as “quantitative traders”. If the term “quantitative finance” serves to divide
the system traders that base their decisions on statistics from those analysts that just
grasp the artistic and esoteric side of technical analysis, we all agree on calling
ourselves “quantitative traders”.
Since a scientific appeal is the best way to sell something, there is nowadays a wide
rush in the markets to give a deep scientific status to the trading systems industry. This
approach seems to take for granted that a trading system must be a long series of rules,
programmed in a complicated way, and full of breathtaking algorithms. Salesmen know
very well that complexity raises prices. But it also raises the probability that a trading
system will fail in the real world, and there is no approach more false than this.
Many commercially available formulas you can find in any technical analysis software,
when properly tested and applied to price series, show a real market bias; that is they
have a trustful predictive power. Trading systems could be very easy in their logical
implementation, like a channel breakout, an indicator, a moving average, and to rely on
your own trading decisions on something that is “easy” will not reduce your success
probability; on the contrary it will increase it. On the way to success a lot will be done
by money management and portfolio construction, risk management and timeframe, so
do not be worried when you examine a trading formula that is simple and produces an
equity line that appears unexciting, because you need to always reason under the
portfolio constraint. It must be clear from the very beginning that a mediocre trading
system – if applied to a portfolio of markets – will easily produce a good looking
equity line.
A huge economic literature shows without any doubt that just a few percent of traders
are able to beat the market year after year. Most of both the retail and institutional
traders sooner or later will go bust. If you do not belong to the lucky category of
winning discretionary traders, then the only option for you in order to survive is the use
of trading systems. If you have purchased this book you are most likely not a
successful discretionary trader: in my experience successful discretionary traders are
intuitively blessed and are unconsciously able to predict the market moves with their
gut feeling. On the contrary there are many successful money managers, institutional
and retail traders that profit from predetermined trading strategies and investing
methodologies. But it
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