PLAY BASED

EXPLORATION
A GUIDE FOR AAPG’S IMPERIAL
BARREL AWARD PARTICIPANTS
Provided by Royal Dutch Shell
 GOOD GEOLOGY VERSUS
SOUND BUSINESS
DECISIONS
WEST GREENLAND

2
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
Chapter Page

Introduction 2

I - The Play Based Exploration Pyramid 5

II - Basin Focus: “The Foundation” 11

III - Play Focus 19

IV - From Play Focus to Prospect Focus 39

V - Play Based Exploration in our Ventures 45

APPENDIX - Quantitative Aspects of Play-Based Exploration 51

3
 INTRODUCTION Efficiency improvement also results from having a
better focus on our most valuable plays. The whole
approach provides greater technical rigour, and
hence quicker, more confident decisions, even with
Play Based Exploration, or PBE, is a phrase that partial or incomplete data. New play Growth is
is being heard more and more frequently as enabled by the creativity and innovation that can
Explorers return to their geological roots in the be unleashed most effectively at the level of basin
increasingly demanding search for exploration or petroleum system understanding.
opportunities, in particular those which offer the
potential to add material hydrocarbon volumes The PBE methodology is encapsulated in the
to our portfolio. “Exploration Pyramid”, where the initial focus is
on the basics - the determination and description
Many of you will have encountered the concepts of of the regional context and the basin framework
Play-Based Exploration during training. For you, this leading to an understanding of the working
booklet is intended as reminder of the essentials petroleum system(s).
of PBE. For those who have not yet experienced
the training, this is an introduction to the concepts, Petroleum system understanding forms the basis for
and we hope will encourage you to find out more the subsequent play focus - quantifying the various
details from your technical advisors. aspects of the system within each play, and using
Prospect focus
tools such as common risk segment mapping to
What exactly is Play Based Exploration? It highlight sweet spots within each play.
Play focus
is simply a method to build and leverage an

Basin focus
understanding of the basins and petroleum systems When the plays have been mapped and where
in which we work, and the geological plays possible, quantified, then the focus shifts again to
they contain. The benefits lie in providing better use more detailed geological and geophysical
early Focus to a range of exploration activities. analysis to define prospects within each play, and

4
build the portfolio, including making estimates of significant acreage in recent years using essentially
volumetrics, risk and uncertainty. a play-based approach, and much of this growth is
PBE, admittedly, requires up front investment in areas new to Shell. Play Based Exploration will
of time if the regional play framework has not also be essential in the fast and effective evaluation
already been defined. However, that investment of these ventures. It will also play a vital role in in
will be repaid by swifter and simpler assessment evaluating new plays in our existing areas.
of individual prospects, and in the quality of
subsequent decisions. The most important effort to improve exploration
performance is, by far, the rebuilding of a play-
Using a play-based approach, or regional based approach to exploration. This can quickly
understanding, is not new to Shell. However, in lead to more opportunity identification through
the 1990s, particularly when the oil price was better understanding of petroleum systems,
low, an asset focus characterised exploration, with more coveted prospects on competitor acreage,
near-field opportunities to add value fast being better risking, better POS polarisation, and more
given priority over more ‘wildcat’ type exploration. efficient exploration campaigns.
This filled the needs of the times, but could not be
sustained in terms of consistently adding volumes to
our portfolio.

With the need now to add more material

exploration opportunities, we are rediscovering the
regional approach to geology which had been
somewhat neglected in the detailed evaluation of
individual blocks and prospects.

Our new ventures team has successfully added

5
Chapter I THE PLAY BASED
EXPLORATION PYRAMID

SFR Maturation

Prospect Identification
Prospect level Prospect focus*
Evaluation Prospect
Portfolio
Volumetrics
Play Creation Risk
Uncertainty
Basin & Play
Prospect Image
Evaluation
Geologic Models
Geophysical Evaluation

Play focus* Play quantification Lead Play mapping,

FSD analogues Portfolio CRS Mapping, Uncertainty
Lead density Exploration history

Sequence Stratigraphy
Basin focus
Petroleum Systems
4D Basin History

Plate setting Regional maps

Tectonostratigraphic frame Data management
Megasequences, Basin Fil Mining legacy knowledge
MISSISSIPPI

(Modified from D Roberts, 2005)

 The fundamental elements or building blocks of selected prospects from a portfolio. A geological
the PBE methodology are represented by the PBE model is built and then volumetrics, technical risk
Pyramid. It is organised into levels of Basin, Play and confidence assessed for a range of models
and Prospect focus with appropriate key inputs and and prospects.
activities identified.
New Venture opportunity evaluation usually occurs
Basin Focus at the lower part of the pyramid (basin-to-play focus
The essential ingredients for the petroleum levels). Decisions are typically made about selecting
system are verified by examining the basin as the right basin, the right play and then the best
a whole. Elements such as the plate setting, acreage (sweet spots) for investment.
n tectonostratigraphic framework and basin history
determine the fill, stratigraphic sequences and Detailed prospect level evaluation activities occur
fication
potential for generating and trapping hydrocarbons. in the upper part of the pyramid both for new and
Prospect focus* Prospect
existing
Portfolio ventures, turning geological leads from the
Key Decisions
Prospect
Play focus play inventory into firm, drillable prospects.
Volumetrics
Risk Maturation
Uncertainty
An understanding of the petroleum system in the
Prospect Image
basin leads to the identification, mapping and To be done well, these prospect evaluations need
Geologic Models
Geophysical Evaluation
New Data Iteration
quantification of plays within the basin. Existing to be carried out with a firm grounding in the (Wells, seismic etc.)
Play focus* Play quantification Lead Play mapping,
knowledge is summarised in play element, summary play context.
FSD analogues Portfolio CRS Mapping, Uncertainty
Lead density Exploration history
Key Decisions
play maps, and common risk segment maps,
Sequence Stratigraphy
leading to the identification of sweet spots. Basin focus
Petroleum Systems
4D Basin History
NV Opportunity
Maturation
Prospect focus Plate setting Regional maps
Tectonostratigraphic frame Data management
Most play execution activity is concerned with Megasequences, Basin Fil Mining legacy knowledge

defining prospects - seismic evaluation and other

maturation activities, and eventually drilling

(Modified from D Roberts, 2005)

 THE FOUNDATION OF A quality assurance “tollgates” at the conclusion of
GOOD PROSPECT INVENTORY each of the basin and play focus levels that allow
us to proceed with confidence to the next level of
The pyramid shows the importance of the evaluation. Our understanding at each of the levels
foundations - the solid understanding of the basins is not static - there is an iterative feedback loop
and plays needed to build a good prospect that takes new information from drilling, studies etc.
inventory and select the best of these for drilling. An back to the appropriate level to update the totality
inventory built upon an incomplete understanding of knowledge.
at the play or petroleum system will not be optimal.
Play-based exploration can be seen as having

Petroleum Systems, Plays and Prospects

Prospect - a potential trap, a successful prospect turns into an oil/gas field when drilled or disappears
Prospect when it is unsuccessful. Many can exist in one play.
DETAIL

Play Segment - subdivision of a geologic play. Fields and prospects that share common geological
Play Segment controls and thus a common “PoS” profile.
COST

Play - a group of hydrocarbon fields and prospects having a chance for charge, reservoir, and trap and
Play belonging to a geologically related stratigraphic unit (eg - the Upper Jurassic play).

Petroleum System - a natural system that links an active or once active source rock to all of the geologic
Petroleum System elements and processes that are essential for a hydrocarbon accumulation to exist in time and space
regardless of economics.

8
KEY WORKFLOWS A Play Definition B What we know, where we C Common Risk Segment D Quantitative Assesment
Play Focus Workflow

(page 20) know it - Play Element and Play Mapping (page 28) (page 52)
Summary Mapping (page 24)

These are the key workflows that together 1MBZ
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(page 13) distribution (page 13) (page 17)



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Basin focus

9
Chapter II BASIN FOCUS:
“THE FOUNDATION”
The basis of Play-Based Exploration
■■ ■Basin type, fill and structural evolution are
the critical elements that build and combine to
define a working Petroleum System.
■■ Geologic boundaries are defined that later
translate to the natural boundaries for the
reservoir, entrapment and charge play elements.
■■ Determine the hydrocarbon generation, flux,
and timing.
■■ Together, these elements define the hydrocarbon
potential for the basin.

Basin focus Sequence Stratigraphy

Petroleum Systems
4D Basin History

Plate setting Regional maps

Tectonostratigraphic frame Data management
OMAN MOUNTAINS WALIBAS

Megasequences, Basin Fil Mining legacy knowledge

10
STEPS 1-3

Basin characterisation,
tectonostratigraphic framework
and sequence analysis
The tectonic setting(s) of a basin is a primary control
on structural architecture, stratigraphic fill, source
Post Rift Synrift
rock distribution, thermal history, and the foundation
for understanding petroleum systems, plays and Continental Pre-rift
Oceanic
ultimately, prospectivity. All that follows in play-
based exploration builds upon this foundation. Early
identification of Megasequences is an essential part
of the basin-fill analysis.

Megasequence: A group of related

Syn-rift facies (section view)
depositional sequences, bounded by major
regional unconformities, created in response
to large-scale processes such as plate
tectonics and eustacy. Influenced to a lesser
degree by depositional rates. Examples: of
megasequences are ‘Syn-Rift’, ‘Passive Margin’.
(A basin fill will typically contain several distinct
megasequences.)

11
STEP 4-5 STEP 6

Basin evolution, source rock, reservoir self consistent - from structural development and Assess petroleum system
and seal distribution assessment of accommodation space, to sediment Initial steps involve integrating all the hydrocarbon
Determining the basin evolution is essential to thickness, to the facies filling the space. occurrence data such as source rock observations
understanding the basin fill pattern through time The maps should be annotated and the source of from well penetrations and outcrops, oil and
and ultimately, the creation of the 4D model that the interpretations as well as the confidence should gas in wells, piston core extracts, seeps, slicks,
in turn serves as the foundation of the Petroleum be described. hydrates and direct hydrocarbon indicators from
System Analysis. The basin evolution should be seismic data.

Present day maturity can tell us the integrated

history of a source interval. On their own, however,
maturity assessments and maps can sometimes be
misleading. To better understand the petroleum
Middle Miocene facies .JEEMF
.JPDFOF

Middle Miocene Middle Miocene isopach
.JEEMF
.JPDFOF
GBDJFT
structure & accomodatio space
TUSVDUVSF

BDDPNNPEBUJPO
TQBDF .JEEMF
.JPDFOF
JTPQBDI system, you can also look at hydrocarbon flux
through time. For example, to pose an important
question - Does the charge timing fit with the timing
of reservoir deposition and trap formation?

Petroleum systems analysis involves more than

traditional charge modelling.
A complete understanding of charge modelling
covers aspects of reservoir conditions through time.
This is taken into account using programs such as
Cauldron and Gridcharger.
The petroleum system can be characterised most

12
simply by an events chart. It will usually take more Petroleum System Events Chart

than one chart to describe the variability across the

DEV

CARB

PERM
TRIAS
JUR

CRET

TERT
basin adequately.

The events chart helps identify the critical moment

when all elements of a viable petroleum system are
SR
first in place. MATURITY
RES/SEAL
TRAP

Reservoir temperature
3FTFSWPJS
UFNQ Reservoir porosity
3FTFSWPJS
QPSPTJUZ Maturity (VRE)
.BUVSJUZ
73&
0JM
nVY
UPEBZ

Oil flux (today)

(Note the spatial relationship

between present day flux and
HC occurrence in red.)

13
 STEP 7

Trap distribution
Palinspastic reconstructions (opposite) can provide and mappable. Properties such as trap timing, size
information on the timing of structural development. distribution, and structural lead spacing are similar
Structural domains are generally spatially distinct within these domains.

Lead density variation by

structural domain

.JOJ
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Structural Domains and Trap Timing Inner Foldbelt Minibasin W

14
Today
STEP 8

Identify plays
What plays are present in the petroleum system?

Reconstruction - Lower Miocene

Thrustbelt E

15
Chapter III PLAY FOCUS
In the basin focus ‘identify plays’ leads us into the
next level of the PBE pyramid - Play Focus.

Play Focus Workflow

Play Play What

What weweknow
know CRS CRS Quantitative
Quantitive
Definition
Defenition Where we
Where we know
know itit Risking
Risking Assessment
Asessment

Play focus Play Quantification Lead Play Mapping,

FSD Analogues Portfolio CRS Mapping, uncertainty
Lead density Exploration history
BAHAMAS - CARBONATE SHOALS

16
THE PLAY FOCUS WORKFLOW Step D. Quantitative Assessment - Estimate Stratigraphic Framework North Alaska
volumetric scope and materiality (see appendix). Plays Studied:

Step A. Play Definition - Take observations from

Basin Focus and determine the logical number
of discrete plays, and the areal distribution of STEP A: Play Definition,
Upper
each play. Stratigraphic Brookian

Step B. Understanding what we know and Stratigraphic definition encompasses the key
where we know it - Assemble a play test reservoir and entrapment elements of the play and
Lower
database, which wildcats had technical success allows the main structural variation to be captured Brookian
or failure after testing the play, identify why key as segments of the play area. A single play
wells failed. Show geological boundaries for the map representing the entire section will probably
elements of the petroleum system: creating play represent a misleading grouping of several different Kamik/LCU

element maps of reservoir, charge and entrapment distinct plays through the section.
Beaufortian
(lithologic and structural elements of seal) and build
a summary play map. In the absence of sufficient Stratigraphic play boundaries should:
calibration data, identify appropriate analogues to ■■ Be no less detailed than megasequences.
build a model for the play. ■■ Reflect the maximum amount of detail of our Sadlerochit

current geological understanding.

Step C. CRS (Common Risk Segment) Mapping ■■ Have a clear line-of-sight back to our
and Risking - Use play element maps and well data exploration objectives.
Lisbourne/
to define dependent and independent risk factors in Endicott
the context of the proper confidence level. Convolve
these maps to define the play “sweet spots”
and reality-check the maps against the existing
prospect portfolio.

17
Plays are defined stratigraphically either by Play boundaries commonly share a sequence As a rule of thumb, a megasequence is the
a significant change in the play elements: stratigraphically controlled horizon (e.g., minimum level of fidelity for play analysis. Since
a regional unconformity, mega-sequence boundary a megasequence is observable on even sparse,
■■ A major bounding seal. or maximum flooding surface). greenfield basin data, most areas can be evaluated
■■ Gross depositional environment in the section. using play-based methods, even if there is no access
■■ Petroleum system (for example, The primary criterion for delineating plays is to a complete set of detailed information.
a younger source), regional or master seal, usually associated with
second- or third-order flooding surfaces. These While a useful minimum threshold for defining plays,
or other significant changes in the working regional seals often form migration barriers that in most cases the use of megasequence boundaries
geological model. can affect a whole family of prospects. grossly oversimplifies the number of stratigraphic
plays. Typically, there are several vertical gross-
depositional environment changes within
a single megasequence.

KM
0
play 1

play 2 4
MFS

Shelf play 3
MFS
B.G. Slope 8
MFS
Prodelta shale MFS
Toe of Slope
12

18
 Extent of
Play Definition, areal regional top
The areal play outline shown by the green colour steal
Extent of
below represents the maximum vertical coincidence Traps
of all of the elements of the petroleum system for this
play: reservoir, charge and seal.

Field
The play sweetspot should be a boundary outside
of which there is ZERO chance that the play will be
PLAY
found (e.g.- reservoir and seal are totally eroded,
SWEETSPOT
source rock is at 10m below surface, etc).

Reservoir
Extent of
Extent
Mature
source rock

Play Focus Workflow

Play What we know CRS Quantitative

Definition Where we know it Risking Assessment

19
STEP B: What do we know? analysis on key wells is a crucial step in finding A good play element map and play summary
Where do we know it? why and where risk elements worked or didn’t map should reflect geologic boundaries and:
work. ■■ Display wells within the stratigraphic play as
Understanding the drilling history of the basin within technical successes or failures
the context of the plays is fundamental in tested For each element of the petroleum system (reservoir, ■■ Have annotations of why lines were drawn and
basins. It yields a basic framework with which to charge and entrapment), create a map of what data were used.
interpret play boundaries, estimate chance and boundaries, or segments that describe what we ■■ Not be complex - capture the geologic trends
confidence (PoS), calculate technical success rates, know and where we know it. for the chance factor: show how an exploration
and deduce the critical risk element(s). sweet spot in this play would occur.
Play Test Analysis
1. Which wells are a valid test of a play? Is a well a Was it a “technical
If a failure why?
“play test”? success” or failure?
A valid, play-testing exploration wildcat well is
where the objective sequence had a chance to
find trap, reservoir, seal and charge. Building Play Element and Play Summary maps -
Two factors should be balanced:
2. Which play-testing wells were 1. Make the boundaries as numerous as necessary
technical successes? to define the geology that drives
A technical success is a well with a flowable success/ failure of a given chance factor.
in-place volume at the formation level. This
key definition is the threshold by which we risk 2. Make the boundaries simple enough to relate
prospects and plays. back to definable geological trends
that “speak” to the interpreter or decision-maker.
3. Was the play-testing well a technical failure,
and if so, why? In some cases, the play element maps can be Example: Reservoir Element (Segment) Map
Understanding wildcat failure may be more used across several plays (maturity and source rock N.B: If you don’t capture the rationale, then
important than documenting successes. Failure distribution, for example). subsequent explorers may not understand the maps.

20
Input data example
Focus map
ARC Gis/
Openworks Concessions
Partnerships

Source and Maturity Map

Flux map SR Quality
Slicks/seeps Temperature
Inversion Timing Fetch map

Top Seal Isopach Map

TA I Fault seal risk
TAII Pressure Analysis
Timing

Reservoir Facies Map

Isopach AVO/
Porosity/PermNet/ Amplitudes
Net to Gross Provenance

Top Reservoir Structure Map

Tectono-strat Timing
Velocity Sensitivity
Fault Analysis

Database Map
Wells/Penetration Map
Success/Failure analysis
Risk statistics
Field Analogues

21
 Play segment boundaries: convert that knowledge into predictive models that
Should represent a significant change in geological define the probability of success.
model. E.g. a facies boundary as the boundary
between shelf and slope depositional environments, Should be segmented to contain an appropriate
location of sediment input points, channels, fan amount of subdivision.
systems, delta lobes, etc. Two prospects drilled in Ensure that boundaries are consistent with
relatively close proximity to, but on either side of geological controls that drive large changes in
this boundary will usually have different chances technical success/ failure (e.g., VRE boundary,
of success. migration focus areas, facies, structural domains,
etc.).
Should identify where confidence changes
significantly. Boundaries (segments) should always be drawn
Confidence reflects the density/ quality of based on geologic features, and not be drawn
information available and the interpreter’s ability to just to fit a well or prospect.

Play Focus Workflow

Play What we know CRS Quantitative

Definition Where we know it Risking Assessment

22
STEP C: There are four steps to the CRS Risking workflow:
Common Risk Segment (CRS) 1. Determine the confidence level of the chance
mapping and risking Typical CRS factor for which you are assigning PoS
Maastricht Chance Factors Chance factor Maps
PLAY RESERVOIR
2. Assign a Play PoS to the segments
Common Risk Segment: (CRS): PLAY RECOVERY
Play PoS Reservoir 3. Assign a Lead PoS to the segments
An area on a map that contains the same 4. Create an amalgamated total PoS map and
Play

SR + PLAY CHARGE Play PoS Charge

PLAY STRUCTURE
general chance for success (PoS) and REGIONAL SEAL
Play PoS Entrapment
perform a reality check.
confidence for a given chance factor: reservoir, PROSPECT RESERVOIR

Lead PoS Reservoir CRS Risking

charge, seal or structure, as defined in Shell’s PROSPECT RECOVERY
Prospect

“Maastricht” risking template. PROSPECT CHARGE

PROSPECT STRUCTURE
Lead PoS Charge
Determine Assign Assign ave. Perform the
Lead PoS Entrapment confidence level Play PoS Lead PoS “reality check”
PROSPECT TOP SEAL

CRS mapping and risking uses all available (data quality and/ or density). Probability values are For some people it is easier to start from a view on
geological and exploration history data to create a assigned to each segment. the total pos for a chance factor, and then separate
view of the play-scale risks and dependencies. out the shared (play PoS) and local (independent or
This work follows upon the play element mapping, lead PoS).
and uses the boundaries (segments) created during The number of maps or chance factors that go into
that work. the CRS mapping exercise may vary, but experience
has shown that play-level and prospect-level maps
The play is divided into segments with similar for Reservoir, Charge and Entrapment are usually
probability characteristics, with the boundaries sufficient to describe the risks. If more are needed,
reflecting changes in either geology, or confidence make sure they are included.

23
 Determine confidence levels MEDIUM: Existing geologic models help to show
for each segment where the chance factor may work. Intermediate
to coarse 2D seismic exists, some regional maps
What are typical confidence levels for and geological models of play elements have been
play analysis? made. Play testing wells may or may not exist.
HIGH: Existing geologic models are robust enough
to predict confidently where the chance factor LOW: Very little to no primary or secondary data
is a success or failure. Several valid, analyzed exist to support a geologic model or suggest
play-testing wells exist. Dense 2D or 3D seismic where the chance factor works. Little or no seismic
with good imaging exists on which play elements coverage. Quick-look analysis relying primarily on
(charge, reservoir, entrapment) can be mapped or analogue data.
modelled, play analogues exist.

)JHI
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DBSCPOBUFT
High Confidence example:
P 4FWFSBM
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BOE
TFBM
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FMFNFOUT
Several, well understood
play tests
Total PoS
Extensive seismic
Mapped charge, reservoir
and seal play elements

24
 " "A Medium Confidence example:
,.

Mackenzie Delta (Canada),

Taglu base of Slope Turbidites
4IFMG 
#(
4MPQF
1SPEFMUB
TIBMF
5PF
PG
4MPQF 
Sparse valid play tests in
3FTFSWPJS
NZMBS $POmEFODF
NBQ similar play segment
Regional 2-D seismic
7BMJE
QMBZ
UFTUT Total PoS

Reservoir facies model

Low Confidence example:

Colombia River Basin sub-basalt
Continental clastics

No sub-basalt image
Magnetotellurics map Speculative stratigraphic column based
on sparse well data
Play relies on regional, conceptual
basin evolution concept pinned to
global analogue

Some areas of play conceptually

“better”than others, but all are heavily
hachured to reflect low confidence

25
 Assign play PoS and average lead PoS

Average Lead PoS (Prospect Success Ratio):

Play PoS (shared PoS): Percentage of prospects predicted to be
Probability of trapped hydrocarbons being hydrocarbon bearing (expected success rate),
present and capable of being produced from or probability that an average lead or prospect
the formation somewhere in the play segment would be a technical success, assuming the
- irrespective of volume, rates, and economic. play is proven. It’s a measure of the repeatability
criteria in a play segment.

Example: Play PoS Charge

Assuming no lateral migration, all of the prospects
4IFMG
above the thick salt would fail for the lack of
charge. Because of this dependent failure risk, the
4MPQF
play PoS for charge in the segments with yellow #BTF
arrows would be very low, even though the play PG
4MPQF

works in the green arrowed segment.

Example: Average lead PoS reservoir

In this example, all of the play reservoir segments
are proven, since there are discoveries within each
3FT4FBM
of the geologic domains.
The repeatability of finding reservoir in prospects
TBMU
LN
is higher in the base of slope segment than the
.BUVSF
43
channel-prone slope.

26
Repeatability = Average Lead PoS = Success rate
for the chance factor in each segment

Shell’s 2004 risking template, also known as the

Maastricht template is used to determine unbiased
prospect and play chance factors.

Example Reservoir (below):

Medium Confidence,
Play PoS = 0.8
Lead PoS = 0.3
Total PoS = 0.8 x 0.3 = 0.24)

Perfect
Confidence/ Knowledge

Very
High

High

Medium .24
Low
extremely unlikely

very unlikely

Very
very likely
equivocal

Low
Exclude

y
unlikely

likely
e

None
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

27
 Total (Geological) PoS
Play x Lead PoS

Composite CRS

Reservoir CRS

Charge CRS

Entrapment CRS

Average Lead PoS Play PoS

28
In the last step of CRS Risking we multiply the maps ■■ Does the resulting map still show clearly the
together to create Composite Common Risk Segment key trends of the play or does the map look
(CCRS) maps. A reality check against known data like shards of glass? Often such maps reflect
is then preformed. By multiplying the play and a level of detail not supported by the data
lead PoS CCRS maps, we can approximate total available, and are more detailed than the level
geological PoS. of knowledge needed to answer the relevant
technical exploration questions.

Reality Checks:
■■ Do the CCRS maps reflect our intuitive picture
of for the average prospect PoS within each
segment?

■■ Does the PoS compare with the exploration

history and prospect portfolio? For proven
segments (play PoS = 1.0). Does the lead PoS
make sense in the light of historic success rates?
When plotted on a CCRS map, are prospect
risks representative of the average PoS portrayed
by the play analysis and do the prospect PoS
values change across key boundaries?

29
Chapter IV FROM PLAY FOCUS
TO PROSPECT FOCUS
■■ Framing - Early Assist
■■ Review and Challenge
■■ Prospect Maturation
■■ After Action Review
SFR Maturation

Prospect Identification 5 Step

Prospect focus* Prospect
Prospect level
Portfolio After Act
Evaluation
Volumetrics Peer Cha
Risk
Uncertainty Peer/vol
Prospect Image
Geologic Models
Geophysical Evaluation
Early Ass

SFR Maturation
Play focus* Framing-

Prospect Identification 5 Step Prospect Maturation

Prospect focus* Prospect
Prospect level
Portfolio After Action Review
Evaluation
Volumetrics Peer Challenge
Risk
Uncertainty Peer/volumetrics Review
Prospect Image
Geologic Models
Geophysical Evaluation
Early Assist
INDIA - GODAVARI DELTA

Play focus* Framing-Kick Off

30
When evaluating prospects and prospect portfolios in related prospects within the same play or play Specific guidelines exist for how prospects and
we should place them in a play context. This gives segment. It can shorten prospect evaluation by prospect portfolios can be placed in the play
us strategic information needed to de-risk the play giving a focus to the work. Such as the identification context - what key play-based products should
and assess the prospect’s ability to deliver Scope of the success factors needed and the likely failure be used. These include play CRS maps, Field Size
for Recovery (SFR) volumes. We ultimately can also modes for the prospect as predicted by the regional Distributions (FSDs - see appendix), YTF estimates
understand the additional potential (yet-to-find - YTF) risk elements. etc. The table shows key questions that should
be addressed at various phases of the 5 step
maturation process - deliverables on value drivers,
critical success factors, project risks, project plan,
Framing - Early Assist volumetrics estimates etc.
Key Products Key Questions
Play Cross Sections Can the focal Play be succinctly described on a cross section ?
Play & CCRS maps Does exploring in this Play segment have merit based on Regional Sweet spot Examples of prospects in a play context
analysis ?
Play Element CRS maps
We can ask questions about how reasonable
What geological aspects of the Prospect should be the main focus of the evaluation
work (I.e. likely failure modes) ? prospect risks and volumes are when compared with
Exploration History Analysis What can we learn from the Exploration history to best augment the
evaluation and improve our understanding of the prospect ?
the play based evaluations.
What does the history indicate as good analogues to use ? A prospect portfolio is overlain on the corresponding
composite common risk segment (CCRS) play
Review & Challenge
Play & CCRS maps Does maturing view of the Prospect reconcile with Play Segment Risking ?
Play Element CRS maps Prospect Risking consistent with Play PoS maps ? Show differences - investigate

Exploration History Analysis What phase of Play Creaming is the Prospect In ?

FSDs Does Prospect volume range fit the appropriate FSD ? .5
.5
.3
.3 .5
.5
Materiality maps Is there likely material follow up to a well test ? .3
.3
.4
.4

.2
.2
Play YTF, CSFs Does the Play and Play segment have enough running room ? .3
.3 .2
.2 .2
.2
.3
.3 .1
.1
Play Execution Plan Does prospect test fit in agreed Play execution plan ? Prospect in low risk area Y .2
.2
.3
.3 .1
Well Plan Does well plan contain provision for key Play data gathering ? (good chance of success) .5
.5 .4
.4
.1

–how much follow up? .4

.4 .3
.3 .1
.1
(e.g. in low chance area) .1
.1
.2
.2
AAR N
.2 .1
.1
Multiple PBE products Have well learnings been fed back to evergreen basin and play understanding ? .2

31
 map. Annotated prospect technical risks can be We can plot prospect Mean Success Volume (MSV)
compared with regionally assigned risks and any estimates on the most appropriate future Field Size
clear differences investigated. CCRS maps also help Distribution (FSD) for that play or play segment
identify drill candidate prospects in segments with to see if they are reasonable. Note that prospects
acceptable chances of success and show possible will tend to be the largest undrilled structures and
follow-up. will often plot in the upper part of the FSD. (See
appendix page 58)

In certain cases, prospect MSVs may exceed the

observed or calculated maximum field size for the
FSD. For example this may occur where unexplored
play segments are previously not licensed or if
?? lack of technology has constrained exploration
P1 such as with poorly imaged sub-salt. Alternatively,
Lead-1 (3)
‘unreasonable’ MSV estimates may cause re-
Lead-4b
P10 Lead-4a(3)
Lead-2 (3)
evaluation of the prospect volumetrics.
Cumulative Probability

Lea d-3
As a further test, we can place the prospect in the
P50
appropriate place on the play segment creaming
curve. This is characterised in three phases.
P90

P99 1

1 10 Field Size 100mmboe 1000

Estimated Prospect MSVs plotted on appropriate FSD for the Play as a `reality check’

32
 Typical Play Specific creaming curve
Note;
14000
1. Quick play or segment calibration will allow
12000 better, earlier decision-making.
2. Confident exploration for material prospects
Cumulative MMBOE

10000 Phase 3
only starts in Phase 2
8000 3. Phase 3 prospectivity should be measured
against exploration value generation and
6000 Phase 2 strategy for the basin
4000
The creaming context of the prospects should
2000 dictate the reasonable expectation of their
Phase 1 potential volume and value delivery.
0.0
0 50 100 150 200 250

Discovery#

Phase 1 - Play Testing/ Calibration Phase 2 - Play harvesting Phase 3 - Maturity

Technical risks poorly constrained and few or The play is calibrated for risks and volumetrics and Few material opportunities remain. Often a Near
no exploration tests. Early information is key to maturation is designed to maximize SFR return, Field Exploration (NFE) phase optimizing value.
decisions on play participation. assisted by appropriate technology deployment. As returns diminish, play exit may become the
preferred option.

33
Chapter V VENTURE EVALUATION
Good PBE Practice involves building first the basin,
then play and then the prospect understanding.
Exploration strategy, planning and execution are
therefore based on the foundation of understanding the
plays in a venture.

Prospect focus

Play focus

Basin focus
USA - GRAND CANYON

34
A basic understanding of the subsurface and its So early identification of and access to the play
potential is our greatest strength. sweet spots is vital. In some recent cases, late play
Other ‘TECOP’ factors (economics, commercial, identification led to expensive access where our
operational and political) should be also overlain on initial acreage position was not in the sweet spot.
the play-based view of a venture or opportunity to
arrive at the appropriate decision. Remember -
Primary Focus

“The best contract terms, price fluctuations,

politics or acreage access conditions do not Second Tier
put valuable, material hydrocarbon plays in the
ground or close contours on maps…”

Securing a material position requires us to quickly

identify key plays and focus on the sweet spots.

Don’t Do It !

35
 Building an exploration plan ■■ Maximise volume capture in the short and
for the focus play long term.
Address the key points for the focus play; ■■ Quick strategic decisions-more acreage or exit?
■■ Principal technical play risks.
■■ Risk dependency within the portfolio.

To understand prospect value of information and play upside:

Use (depedent) Play Pos CRS and Materiality maps to assess zone of influence from a possible well test.

0.9 Ave Play Pos 0.9 Ave Play Pos

PoS Uplift
throughout Play
segment due to
reduction
of dependent
Play Risk

Targeting Play 150 100

150 MSV 45 20 400
Segment with 45 EXP 50
Running Room
Use YTF and Materiality
maps to assess Play 180 120
45 15
Segment Volume Prize

100
10

36
Building play optionality into The variety of these plays requires a different
the Venture Plan approach for the execution plans for each.
A typical basin venture will contain several plays
and often each of these at different stages of Play Scope vs PoS

understanding and techn ical maturity. Ideally,

1200
Venture Plans should be built with a clear view of the C
1000
Play Scope mmboe

play scope or ability to deliver SFR volumes together

with the information needs of each of the plays, 800

key decision points and an understanding of the 600

B
possible inter-relationships between plays. 400
A
200

0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

? B ? se 3
Pha
? A
2
?
e
Play UR mmboe

as

? ?
Ph

C ?

B
Phase 1
In this schematic example, Play A is proven and C
mature, B is technically proven but still poorly Time/Discovery #

understood and C is largely conceptual but with

significant scope.

37
 A Venture Plan for these plays Partially calibrated deep Play B shares certain
could look like this: petroleum system elements with the shallow play A
Play A is well calibrated such that most of but overall the need for additional information in this
the remaining drilling opportunities have only emerging play is high in order to target early tests
independent (lead) risk. The “learning value” and quickly identity the sweet spot. Opportunistic
of these wells is minimal and they can be most deepening of a remaining play A prospect well
likely drilled out in the most efficient way as part to test the deeper play B is a clear option for
of an NFE programme of low risk, low volume efficiently building understanding in the deeper
prospects. Future key decisions could be the optimal play but should always be measured against the
exit point whenever smaller discoveries suggest cost of testing play B in an optimal location and the
that exploration resource could be better spent richer information that could come from that tactical
elsewhere. choice. The plan for this play consequently focuses
on the prospects that will get to a confident go
forward/exit decision soonest.
Year 1 2 3 4 5

+acreage +acreage

Studies +acreage +acreage

seismic+
C

38
Play C is unproven and shares no petroleum system
elements with the shallower plays.
It should be treated as a Frontier play opportunity
with the same importance in establishing basic
petroleum system understanding - source rock
presence, maturity, timing, reservoir/ seal pairs
etc. In the absence of hard calibration data, play
analogue information and primary delineation data
such as high resolution gravimetric studies
or long cable deep target seismic could form the
basis of the early effort.
The follow-up to this effort could then be deep
well tests to conclusively test the petroleum system
elements.

The strong message here is to treat plays

independently in execution planning and where
relevant prioritize calibration efforts in new plays
and… avoid committing to drilling consecutive and
probably dependent wells back-to-back.

39
Appendix
Play Focus Workflow

Play What we know CRS Quantitative

Definition Where we know it Risking Assessment
RUSSIA - LENA DELTA

40
STEP D: Quantitative aspects of CRS maps alone, however, do not answer other
Play-Based Exploration business questions, e.g:
(in play focus) ■■ What does success look like? - scope - materiality
The numerical basis of PBE analysis
■■ What will the portfolio achieve?
Discoveries ■■ What is the chance of achieving success
(a venture question)?
0.40
0.40 026
026 0.10
0.10 ■■ What is the at-risk financial exposure
1.00
1.00 066
066 0.66
0.66 (not covered here)?
Tertiary
Tertiary clastics
clastics Tertiary
Tertiary clastics
clastics Tertiary
Tertiary clastics
clastics
0.46
0.46 0.12
0.12 To answer these questions, an assessment of
volumetric potential is required.
0.59
0.59 032
032 0.19
0.19
0.46
0.46 032
032 0.16
0.16

Play PoS Avg. Lead PoS Total PoS

The “Play focus” (section III) described where in The rationale for breaking out play and average
the basin the best chance of achieving exploration lead PoS
success is maximized. The segments containing ■■ From a portfolio of segments perspective, it
discoveries (highlighted on the maps above) are is critical to understand both the play and
proven and thus have a play PoS of 100%. average lead PoS to evaluate the chance of
The segments to the east are, as yet, unproven venture success.
and have play PoS values less than 100%. ■■ To understand and communicate what one of the
The total PoS on these segments is very low. unproven segments would look like if successful,
however, the average lead PoS is used.

41
Describing play segment volumes The venture risked volume description is only useful Deterministic methods for
from a portfolio perspective (roll-up of a number of volumetric assessment
segments), since the ultimate outcome from drilling
Volume vs. Risk
up any single play segment is either the success 1. Summed prospect expectation volumes
0.3
Venture success volume case, or failure case. In a proven segment the
avg. Lead PoS risked
0.25 venture risked and venture success volumes are Elements to be considered
PoS

0.2
the same. a. How good are the prospect
expectation volumes?
0.15
This type of plot also clearly illustrates the potential b. Is an economic minimum being considered?
0.1 value of information obtainable from a given well or c. Has the data density given a complete
Venture Risked volume
-
venture PoS (3 well dry-hole
farm-in. A variety of tools can be used to provide the lead inventory?
0.05
tolerance) volumetric description. Their usage depends on the d. Has a “dry-hole” tolerance been factored?
0 time frame of interest in the analysis and the amount e. Has the full extent of the play been identified?
0 500 1000 1500 2000
of data available.
Risked Volume (MMBOE)
Play with lead inventory and synthetic leads
The chart shows the difference between a success
What Yet To-Find tools can we use?
description of an unproven play segment (venture
success risked volume, the upper right point) 15 -
Calibrated basin model
risked volumes

and the portfolio description (total venture risked Time

Statistical (GEPI) type Play Analysis

10 Play-data Analogue
volume, lower left point). Horizon
Of the Answer
- Discovery process
modelling
driven driven

(Years) # of well # of well

5 - tests> 15 tests< 16

Summed expectation Statistically

insignificant
The difference between the two points describes the 0 -
volumes
play data->

Decreasing data & increased uncertainty

potential volume that can be achieved by proving
3D Earlier view of play extent
up a play segment in a successful venture. If the
venture is unsuccessful, however, the volume is zero
(dashed line).

42
2. Calibrated basin model

Quantitative play analysis tied to charge models

allows rapid testing of different scenarios with the
ability to see the results quickly for block or play
segment ranking.
A quality control check on predicted versus actual
results is required.

Due to incomplete data, deterministic methods Expulsion and Migration Volume and Fluid Prediction

may not provide a complete view of a play or

play segment, e.g. in frontier areas, and new Shell Quality Control Check Perfect Match
10000
entries. In these situations,
a statistical volumetric assessment can provide the
Volume Discovered

critical information. Gas Fraction High

1000

100

Fault Retention Low

10

10.0 100.0 1000.0 100000.0

Predicted Volume

43
 3. Statistical (GEPI) type play analysis The terms of statistical analysis:

All statistical methods are built upon Total PoS: (Play PoS x Avg. Lead PoS)
3 basic components. The calculation uses both figures not just
the rolled-up Total PoS.

The Basic Equation:

Future Field Size Distribution (FSD):
Play potential= Total POS (@ zero cutoff) * Future FSD * Remaining lead count
A numerical distribution reflecting the range
of undiscovered future accumulations (EUR) in a
Play Potential
play or play segment, including sub-commercial
accumulations (Presented in a cumulative log-
Total POS probability plot).
(Play POS x Avg. Lead POS)
Field Size Range Lead count

Lead Count: The number of potential leads in a

given segment of analysis.
Probability

X X Often calculated from a lead density, typically

expressed in # / 1000 km2.
Volume

44
Each of the elements has pitfalls. These must be
understood in advance.
Past scepticism of results from this approach are
not because the method is flawed (our competitors
Canadian Williston Basin
have borne this out), but in many cases because of P1
careless or poorly constrained inputs.
No outcome gives the “right answer” (as with any P99 = 0.03
P90 = 0.2
model), therefore we must use ranges to indicate P10
P50 = 2.4 P10
the results. Mean = 9.3
Cumulative Probability

P10 = 25.3 Mean

Williston Basin field size P1 = 175.5
P50
distribution chart P50

A field size distribution (FSD) provides a

considerable amount of information about a play or
play segment. From the example above: P90
P90

■■ Any randomly selected field has only a 10%

chance of being larger than 25 million barrels; P99

■■ 50% of the discoveries are smaller than 0.01 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1,000.0

2,5 million barrels. Ultimate field size (MMBOE)

45
 Play Creaming Curve
A field size distribution represents a
“snapshot” in time
Volume found in Play

A history of discovery volumes in a play shows the

FSD of the 1st third of the discoveries is larger than
the 2nd third, which, in turn is larger than the 3rd.
This is a representation of exploration “creaming”.

Volume found in Play

A forward-looking FSD is required for a
1st 2nd 3rd Yet-To-Find exercise in partially creamed
Well Test Count play segments
Producing an FSD for a volume assessment requires
a forward (YTF FSD) look at the potential field sizes
FSD Chart
yet to be discovered. The previous examples show
3rd third 2nd third
P1
existing (already discovered) size distributions. These
1st third should not be used for a future look assessment.
P10
The analysis would then result in the simulated
“discovery” of fields that have already been found
P50
in a partially creamed play segment. Native FSDs
P90 however, may be used as analogues for frontier
mean

mean
mean

areas, or in new play extensions (e.g. same play

P99
projected under salt where imaging problems
1 10 100 1000 precluded exploration in the past).
Recoverable Volume (MMBOE)

46
 Discovery-process-based FSD Chart

URData Producing an appropriate lead count

Current Fields FSD Fit
P1 ■■ New / immature plays - start with lead density
P1 P 1

per 1000 km2 from appropriate geologic

P 5
P10 YTF FSD analogue (with sufficient exploration maturity).
P10 P 10

P 20 ■■ Play extensions - extrapolate lead density per

P 30
1000 km2 from an extensively explored similar
P50 P 40

P50 P 50

P 60
‘calibration area’.
Present-day FSD P 70
■■ Map-based trap delineation (basin models).
12 P 80

P90 10
Creaming Curve e
■■ Discovery Process modelling: Top-up method
P 90
Volume (Billion BOE)

P90
8

6
P 95
- e.g. FSDecoder / PlayCraft (counting the
P99 Ultimate FSD
4

2
number of unidentified leads that fit under a log
P99
0.0
PresentPDay
99

1 26 51 76
Number of Tests
101 126
normal distribution).
0.1 1. 10 10 100 1000 10000 ■■ There should be a balance between the lead
density and the FSD (how many billion barrel
Volume (MMBOE)
fields can fit in 1000 km2?).

$BMJCSBUJPO
BSFB

6OJEFOUJmFE

1SPTQFDUT

'JFMET

7PMVNF
$MBTTFT

47
Demystifying the “GEPI” calculation (PoS x FSD x Lead Count)
-PHOPSNBM
'4%
1MPU

5SVODBUFE
'4%$VSWF
6OUSVODBUFE
'4%$VSWF
Proven play segment
P1


Venture Risked = Venture Success

-PH
/PSNBM
1SPCBCJMJUZ
P10



Play PoS = 1.0  P50

Avg. Lead PoS = .66

.BY 

Lead Count = 13 
1 
P90

Mean FSD = 25 Log Normal Probability

.FBO 
 4
 


 1 

1 P4 E
1P P99
.JO 
Z FB 
1MB H
-

Venture Volume = .66 x 25 (mean of FSD) x 13 = 214 MMBO 






"W Venture Scope = .66 x 13 = ~ 8 successes (8.6) 6MUJNBUF
3FDPWFSZ
..#0&

Materiality expectation ~ 1 lead > 66 MMBO

-PHOPSNBM
'4%
1MPU

5SVODBUFE
'4%$VSWF
P1 6OUSVODBUFE
'4%$VSWF

  Play PoS = .71



 4

P4 E
1P
-PH
/PSNBM
1SPCBCJMJUZ

1
P10


Z FB Avg. Lead PoS = .32
1MB H
-


"W Lead Count = 30

 P50
Mean FSD = 41 (totally uncreamed segment)
.BY 


1 
Play CCRS map Total Venture Risked Volume = For portfolio roll-up
P90
Log Normal Probability
.FBO 


.71 x .32 x 41(mean of FSD) x 30 = 279 MMBO P99
1 
.JO 
Unproven play segment Total venture risked scope = For portfolio roll-up 








Venture Risked = Venture Success .71 x .32 x 30 = ~ 7 successes (6.8) 6MUJNBUF
3FDPWFSZ
..#0&

48
Would we ever expect to find 7 successes in this What would success look like?
segment? No! If the segment fails, nothing will be Venture Success Volume =.32 x 41 mmbo x 30 leads = 394 MMBO
found, and if it does work, then we need to look at Scope with play success = .32 lead PoS x 30 leads =10 successes
the success case. Materiality expectation ~ 1 lead > 150 MMBO
This number is only useful from a roll-up of a GEPI venture success simulation output map from BPA (segment colours
portfolio of segments perspective
reflect success HC richness). Smaller number is total
venture risked volume prediction, larger number is
venture success risked volume prediction.

49
NOTES

50
NOTES

51
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