Galaxy Digital Research: Dogecoin: The Most Honest SH Tcoin
Galaxy Digital Research: Dogecoin: The Most Honest SH Tcoin
Galaxy Digital Research: Dogecoin: The Most Honest SH Tcoin
On the back of a major resurgence in cryptocurrency prices, along with retail trading manias fueled by mobile trading apps and
Reddit-borne trade ideas, Dogecoin (DOGE) has emerged as the best performing crypto YTD. In this report, we tell the story of
the whimsical cryptocurrency and explain why, despite its shortcomings, Dogecoin is one of crypto’s most interesting phenomena.
The appeal of Dogecoin has always been its honesty. “Dogecoin is an open-source peer-
to-peer digital currency, favored by Shiba Inus worldwide,” proclaims the official website.i
Unlike many other cryptocurrency projects, Dogecoin does not seek, or even pretend, to
be anything more than to be the world’s most fun currency. There’s no grand vision, no
pronouncements about how Dogecoin will change the world. Dogecoin had a fair launch,
like Bitcoin, meaning there was no token presale, pre-mine, or VC fundraise. Consequently,
there’s no business development or marketing department promoting the coin for the
benefit of insiders. It’s ultimately a Bitcoin fork, so while not novel, at least the tech is known
and reliable. It’s not new: indeed, it’s one of the oldest altcoins, more than 1.5 years older
than Ethereum. And its founder even disappeared—not as dramatically as Satoshi, of
course.
There are major deficiencies. Dogecoin has zero development. Few people run full nodes,
and those who do often have difficulty downloading the chain or staying synced with the
network. There’s no market infrastructure, barely any wallet software, and despite being
more than 7 years old, many exchanges still don’t support it. There is no serious long-term
narrative or use-case supporting its wide adoption. And it’s not clear whether DOGE holders
are dogmatic about the coin’s long-term prospects.
When we set out to write this report, we expected to find what we’ve always known:
Dogecoin is a joke, but it’s also a joke… not credible, resilient, or adopted. But as we
reviewed the data, we found that, despite its deficiencies, Dogecoin has remarkably strong
fundamentals and powerful forces supporting its rise: a genuine origin story, longevity, and
a growing community of users who appear determined to meme a Shiba Inu-themed global
currency into existence. We don’t expect Dogecoin to become the world’s most valuable
cryptocurrency any time soon, but DOGE should not be ignored.
In this report, we tell the story of Dogecoin and offer insights into its use, growth, and
maturation from a moderately funny joke to a joke for the ages: the world’s most widely adopted satirical currency.
DOGE Barks at the Moon
In 2021, the highest returns in the digital assets market have come not from serious projects like Bitcoin and Ethereum, but instead
from one of the sector’s oldest coins, Dogecoin (DOGE). DOGE is up a whopping 9537% YTD at the time of writing and is the 4th
largest digital asset by market cap at more than $70B.
Dogecoin is not trading thin. Volumes have skyrocketed, with as much as $70B trading hands on its busiest ever day recently.
Even in the last 24 hours, $15B of Dogecoin has traded hands on the world’s most reputable exchanges, compared to $10B for
BTC and $22B for ETH.ii DOGE is liquid enough to support significant investment.
The first public mention of Dogecoin occurred on November 28, 2013, when Jackson
Palmer tweeted “investing in dogecoin, pretty sure it’s the next big thing.” (Palmer has
since deleted his Twitter account and mostly vanished from the internet). Palmer then
registered www.dogecoin.com on December 4, 2013, which still
provides introductory material for new users. The Dogecoin
genesis block was mined two days later on December 6, with the
first known price of DOGE established on January 23, 2014 at
$0.001540753iii.
Over the first year, the Dogecoin community would sponsor many other charitable efforts, including support for the people of
Kashmir (Doge4Kashmir), Cambodian primary education (CESHEO), and access to clean water (Doge4Water). The donation
Speculation begins. Dogecoin launched just as Bitcoin was making new a new all-time high in the bull cycle that preceded the
2017 expansion. Bitcoin peaked at $1,156.14 on November 30, just 2 days after Palmer first tweeted the infamous “investing in
dogecoin, pretty sure it’s the next big thing.”
By the end of Dogecoin’s first year, at least 33 exchanges had added DOGE trading to their platforms. By our survey, only 5 of
those exchanges still operate today (in order of DOGE listing): Poloniex (01/22/14), Bittrex (02/13/14), Kraken (02/20/14), HitBTC
(06/03/14) and CEX.io (08/20/14).
Development. DOGE is a fork of Luckycoin, which is a fork of Junkcoin, which is a Fork of Litecoin, which is a fork of Bitcoin. The
incomplete but illustrative diagram below shows Dogecoin’s place among some of Bitcoin’s many derivatives.
Much of Dogecoin’s core architecture, including its scripting language and use of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), is ultimately
inherited from Bitcoin. The network was initially independently mined with Scrypt, a trait indirectly derived from Litecoin, and had
random block rewards, a feature it inherited from Luckycoin.x In the currency’s early days, the network forked to enable merged
mining with Litecoin and replace its randomized block rewards with fixed ones.
Dogecoin’s core codebase has been neglected for several years, and there’s little development happening on top of the currency.
One notorious piece of software that was built on Dogecoin was Truebit’s Dogethereum Bridgexi: the goal of this project was to link
DOGE to ETH to help the latter scale and serve as a pilot for Truebit’s scaling solution.xii The project no longer appears to be under
active development.
Covid, Crypto, and Elon Musk. Fast forward a few years to 2020: Covid-19 has ravaged the globe and sent communities
everywhere into lockdown. People have turned to new TV shows like Tiger King, used Zoom to stay in touch with friends and
family, and adopted viral social media platforms like TikTok to share memes and humor.
Bitcoin’s third halving occurred as global monetary authorities embarked on an unprecedented loosening. The halving reduced
Bitcoin’s issuance schedule at the perfect moment to draw a contrast with the actions of central banks, helping spark renewed
interest in BTC as a macro asset. Fiscal spigots opened worldwide in an attempt to stem losses from unemployment. Crypto saw
massive inflows from both institutions and a homebound retail population while mobile apps like Robinhood, which supports
Dogecoin trading, saw huge growth in retail usage.
At the same time, Dogecoin’s community-appointed CEO began tweeting heavily about DOGE. Below is a sample of the most viral
Dogecoin tweets from Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person and owner of the 23rd most followed Twitter account (52.4m):
Source: Cryptowat.ch
User adoption. Both total and active address count have increased through this bull run, indicating increased adoption. The 30-
day moving average active address count has passed 100 thousand addresses for the second time in 2021, currently hovering
around 115 thousand daily active addresses. There are about 3.6 million addresses holding any amount of DOGE.
Dogecoin supply. With a permanently fixed 10,000 DOGE per block subsidy rewarded to miners approximately every minute, the
supply of Dogecoin grows by 14.4m DOGE per day and 5.2B DOGE per year on average. Without halvings, the ultimate supply of
Dogecoin is infinite, although the annualized inflation rate reduces as the supply grows.
An enormous portion of circulating DOGE has moved in the last year—more than 60% of the coins’ total supply. This indicates a
significant transfer of coins from older holders into the hands of newer entrants. Were the same true for Bitcoin, it would likely be
seen as a bearish indicator by investors, as a large portion of the market views bitcoin as digital gold, a long-term savings tool that
is being held by more people for longer periods of time. Determining whether this is bearish or bullish for DOGE is not so
Transaction metrics. Transaction count has generally increased throughout the history of the network, with the recent price action
coinciding with a run-up in on chain activity.
USD-denominated transfer value and fees have soared, reflecting the increase in price and activity.
Mining. DOGE is merge-mined with LTC—as a result, the network derives its security from Litecoin’s. Virtually all Litecoin miners
are currently mining DOGE as well.
Historically, revenue from merge-mining DOGE has served as a small supplemental source of income for Litecoin miners at little
marginal cost. With the recent price action, miners are making more money from merge-mining DOGE than they are from mining
LTC.
DOGE’s price increase has also caused it to pass Litecoin in market cap. To our knowledge, this is the instance of a merge-
mined coin passing its base coin in total value.
Litecoin and Dogecoin use the Scrypt proof-of-work algorithm. With the profitability of Litecoin-Dogecoin merged mining increasing
dramatically since the beginning of the year, the price of Scrypt mining rigs on secondary markets has skyrocketed. According to
Hashrate Index,xiii the average price of the Bitmain Antminer L3, a common Scrypt miner, has increased from $83.26 to $547.71
since the beginning of the year.
Unlike Bitcoin’s SHA-256d mining rigs, Scrypt mining machines are typically fabricated on older process nodes. As a result,
manufacturers do not need to compete as aggressively with hardware manufacturers from other industries for allocation. With
Developer activity. Activity in the Dogecoin GitHub repository has been essentially nonexistent since 2017, indicating a general
lack of development effort for the project. Whether the coin’s resurgence will lead to an increase in developer interest is an open
question. Dogecoin’s lead maintainer Ross Nicoll recently indicated it may, telling CoinDesk “there was a resurgence in attention
and we want to keep the currency operational.”xiv
The last point is particularly instructive. As Dogecoin interest grew in Q1 2021, many new users attempted to download and run
Dogecoin nodes but faced difficulty. On January 5, GitHub user jrkenn opened an issue in the Dogecoin repository complaining
that “I still can not get Dogecoin core to work.”xv The user continued to explain that, despite having a “1 gig connection,” and
“bypassing my router” to put the node on a “direct connection to the internet,” they saw no improvement in sync’ing with the network.
Even after letting the node run for “24 hours,” the user saw “no changes whatsoever.” Many other users reported the same issue
on both GitHub and Reddit.
The issue continues to this day. Galaxy Digital Research attempted to sync our own Dogecoin node (running Shibetoshi v. 1.14.3,
the latest release): we were unable to successfully connect to enough peers to sync the chain for several days. The reason for the
inability to sync is the lack of sufficiently available and up-to-date nodes on the network. As one GitHub user pointed out, “there
are some weird peers with only half the blockchain as their block number… but if they have high connection speed it appears [the
node] chooses first on speed rather than a slower connect with a full blockchain.” xvi
To even begin syncing successfully, like the users on GitHub and Reddit, we were forced to manually import a list IP address for
known (i.e., trusted) Dogecoin nodes that possessed the full blockchain and were reachable long enough to sync fully. Even then,
we were not able to sync fully in a timely manner. Were we to operate a Dogecoin node for the purposes of sending and receiving
transactions, latency issues and the deficiency of the peer-to-peer network would lead us to increase our required confirmation
times.
Lack of development. Dogecoin hasn’t seen any meaningful developer activity in years. Bitcoin’s development ecosystem is
thriving, with core developers frequently receiving grants from individuals, not-for-profits, and large corporations.
User adoption. The number of addresses that hold bitcoin outweigh those that hold Dogecoin by more than an order of magnitude.
Significantly more addresses interact with the bitcoin blockchain daily.
Dogecoin still doesn’t have a supply cap, and the asset’s current annualized inflation rate is substantially higher than Bitcoin.
Ownership concentration. The supply distribution of DOGE is skewed heavily toward larger holders. This stands in contrast with
Bitcoin, which is much better-dispersed.
Relative to other major assets, Dogecoin’s supply dispersion falls somewhere in the middle of the pack. Measured by Supply Equity
Ratio, DOGE is more evenly dispersed than XRP and younger assets like UNI and DOT. By this metric, DOGE trails behind ETH
and (especially) BTC in distribution of ownership and is slightly more concentrated than LTC and ADA.
Transaction metrics. The Bitcoin network dwarfs Dogecoin in both transaction count and daily transfer value. This does not come
as any surprise as Bitcoin’s ecosystem of wallets, merchants, exchanges, and use cases is extremely developed.
Mining. Using the price of SHA-256d and Scrypt hashpower on NiceHash, xviii a hashrate marketplace, HowManyConfs.com
estimates the hourly cost of 51%-attacking Bitcoin to be 11 times as high as the cost of attacking Litecoin.xix Because Dogecoin is
merge-mined with Litecoin, this figure holds for DOGE as well. This estimate suffers from several methodological issues, but the
general takeaway is that Bitcoin transactions settle much faster than Litecoin and Dogecoin transactions, despite the latter
networks’ shorter block times.
Another way to estimate network security is simply to look at miner revenue. In a network’s steady state, the economic profits of
mining approach zero. This implies that the cost to attack a network is for a day is bounded above by that network’s total daily
mining revenue. This metric also suggests that Bitcoin is over an order of magnitude more secure than Dogecoin.
Dogecoin and Litecoin have higher inflation rates than Bitcoin, so an attacker could also potentially recoup more of their expenditure
by selling the coins they mined. This issue is aggravated by the networks’ little-known coinbase maturity parameter, which dictates
the number of blocks that a miner must wait before spending newly mined coins. The parameter is set to 100 blocks in Bitcoinxx
and Litecoin,xxi and 30 blocks in Dogecoin.xxii Because Bitcoin has a 10-minute block time, an attacker controlling slightly over half
of the already-online hashpower would need to wait about 33.3 hours before spending mined funds. With Litecoin’s 2.5-minute
block time, this would take only 8.3 hours, and with Dogecoin’s 1-minute block time, 1 hour.
Because newly mined coins on DOGE mature faster, the collateral damage of an attack on Dogecoin would also be greater. Funds
sent by miners within the attack window can evaporate, short-changing the recipient. A relatively shallow 51% attack on DOGE
could result in permanent loss of funds, even if both the sender and recipient behave honestly.
Bitcoin offers stronger settlement assurances. In a 51% attack less than 100 blocks deep, transactions sent by an honest actor will
eventually settle, and the recipient will be made whole.
Monetary flexibility. Dogecoin’s unreasonably short maturity window wasn’t the only bizarre design choice made by the creators
of the asset. Dogecoin initially launched as an independently mined asset with random block rewards of between zero and 1 million
DOGE, a feature it inherited from Luckycoin.xxiii Because the source of this randomness was the hash of the previous block, though,
it was possible for miners to know the reward of the block they were mining in advance.
Some miners, like F2Pool, gamed this feature to only mine blocks with an above-average block reward.xxiv After this was pointed
out in a Reddit post by u/paul_miner,xxv the community moved to fork the network and remove the random block reward.
The decision to adjust a key parameter like the block reward is should not be made likely. While expected total issuance remained
the same, this change fundamentally altered the network’s mining economics.
Bitcoin has also seen user-driven changes to its base-layer economics, most famously through the introduction of segregated
witness (SegWit). Unlike the move to a deterministic block reward, though, SegWit impacted only the network’s fee economics,
not the rate at which new coins were issued.
Despite these deficiencies, though, Dogecoin is an admirable project clearly capable of rallying significant support. Unlike many
projects in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, Dogecoin does not thrive on grand pronouncements of a better future or major
technological breakthroughs. Instead, Dogecoin has one simple purpose: to be the world’s most fun currency. It is a goal that
seems too good to be true, one that you would assume comes with a hidden agenda. But with no pre-mine or ICO, Dogecoin’s fair
launch positions it more closely to Bitcoin than most other projects in the space, ensuring that no hidden group of insiders stands
to benefit disproportionately from its rise.
Aristotle said, “the gods too are fond of a joke,” and it’s clear the cryptocurrency gods continue to favor Dogecoin. DOGE is likely
to live on as long as Bitcoin lives, and as long as jokes are funny. It is perhaps the purest “gallows humor” investment vehicle ever
created, mocking a frothy market with its playful indifference. In our view, current Dogecoin volatility is fueled by mania, but it is
likely that Dogecoin will continue to be part of this cryptocurrency story over the long run, always in Bitcoin’s shadow, but always
lurking and periodically outperforming to surprise us all. DOGE has a long history of self-awareness and simplicity that makes it an
attractive tool for expressing a wry cynicism about the state of the world. The coin offers a certain honesty that resonates in a
complicated world and an often duplicitous cryptocurrency ecosystem. Most assets cannot rival that honesty, and Dogecoin’s
longevity is ensured so long as one truism remains: people love a good joke.