Figure 2.2.2 A Macro View of The Urbanization Process of The Study Area in 2000

CREATS Phase I Final Report Vol.
III: Transport Master Plan

Chapter 2: URBANIZATION STRUCTURE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
Figure 2.2.2 A Macro View of the Urbanization Process of the Study Area in 2000
2-7
CREATS Phase I Final Report Vol. III: Transport Master Plan
Source: “Greater Cairo Public Transport Study and General Features of the Greater Cairo Metro Third Line”,
1999 (SYSTRA)
Figure 2.2.3 Cairo Urban Spreading since 1968
2-8
Table 2.2.1 Historical Changes in Urbanized Areas and Urban Population in GCR
1968 1977 1982 2000
Urbanized Area (km2) 160 206 254 290

Estimated Population in the
5.5 6.7 8.6 11.3
Urbanized Area (million)
Population Density (prs/ km2) 3.44 3.25 3.39 3.90
Source: Tabulated from “the Greater Cairo Public Urban Transport Study (1999)”, SYSTRA
A more detailed population density analysis by Qism was made based on the
socioeconomic survey result in the Study Area. The Study Team projected the 2001
population of a total of 60 Qisms as well as areas by Qism. The population density in
2001 and the average population growth rate between 1986 and 2001 were plotted in
the coordinates, as shown in Figure 2.2.4. It can be found that the highest population
density accounts for about 800 persons/ha (8 persons/ km2) and that the lower density
Qisms are likely to have experienced a higher population growth during the past 15
years. A detailed description on the population estimation is in section 2.3.
60.0%
50.0%
Pop Growth (86-01)
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
-10.0%
Pop Density 2001 (Prs/ha)
Source:
The JICA
Study Team, based on the 1996 CAPMAS data
Figure 2.2.4 Relations between Population Density (2001) and Population Growth
(1986-2001) by Qism
2-9
3) Concentration of Pivotal Urban Functions to the GCR
There are four (4) Governorates such as Cairo, Alexandria, Port-Said and Suez which
are categorized by urban Governorates in the CAPMAS Census. These four shares
18.6% of the national total, and 43.6% of the urban population in the whole country the
1996 population.
The primacy of urban economies in the GCR, as the capital region, is characterized by
a phenomenon that pivotal urban functions for economic, social and cultural activities
have been predominately accumulated there, compared to the population. Figure
2.2.5 shows a comparative situation of the concentration into the GCR for same
selected urban functions in terms of shares of the national total.
Popualtion 1996
1
60.0%
In-movement
Licenced No. of Public
Vehicles 1999 7 40.0% 2 Institutions 1996
20.0%
0.0%
No. of Aircraft
Movements 1998 6 3 No. of Pharmacies
1999
5 4
University Students
No. of Buildings 1996 Enrolled 1997/8
Source: The Statistical Year Book 1993-1999, CAPMAS
Figure 2.2.5 Comparative Concentration of Urban Functions in the GCR
Compared to the population share, the public service function represented by the
number of public institutions seems to be proportionally located, while the higher
educational function, represented by the number of enrolled university students, is
extremely predominant in the GCR, sharing about 50% of the national total. The
economic and traffic transactions, in terms of the numbers of aircraft movements and
in-movements of licensed vehicles to the GCR, are also comparatively predominant.
Thus, the socioeconomic activities have been greatly extended in the GCR, and these
activities eventually generate a more elastic transport demand.
2 - 10
(2) Long-term Development Strategies for the Greater Cairo Region
1) The Physical Planning Law No. 3/1982
The General Organization for Physical Planning (GOPP) was established under
Ministry of Housing, Utilities and Communities in 1973 as the national entity
responsible for physical planning in Egypt at the regional, provincial, urban and rural
levels. The GOPP has a key mission to propose physical and urban development
policies and supervise the implementation in coordination with all relevant authorities
at the national, regional and local levels. The GOPP is also mandated to establish
norms and standards for industrial and urban agglomerations and develop sustained
technical advice, training and human resource management to local governments.
As a legislative framework for the regional development planning in Egypt, the

Physical Planning Law No. 3/1982 was established to stipulate the contents,
presentation procedures and accreditation of general and detailed plans, land
subdivisions and district renewals, as well as expropriations and penalties for
violations. Based on the legal framework, the GOPP has launched a number of
regional development plans such as: 1) Development Map of Egypt 2017; 2)
Development Strategy of Sinai 2017; 3) Delta Region Development Plan; 4)
Development Strategy of Upper Egypt Region; 5) Suez Canal Regional Development
Plan; 6) Development Strategy of Assiut Region; 7) Establishment of a National
Hazardous Waste management System; and 8) Greater Cairo Master Plan.
Needless to say, the Greater Cairo Master Plan (GCMP), as shown in Figure 2.2.6, is
relevant to this study. Nowadays, the up-dated GCMP was revised in 1997, and
highlights some key elements to structure the Greater Cairo Region, viewing a wider
spatial framework.
2) General Policy Directions of the GCR Master Plan
Towards a sustainable economic growth and improvement of the living conditions, the
GCMP articulates five (5) key objectives:
• Protect arable land, while providing a better industrial location strategy;

• Improve public transportation, while facilitating infrastructure network;
• Protect historical heritage, controlling informal urban expansion;
• Provide alternatives to informal settlements, encouraging deconcentration of Greater
Cairo Region; and
• Protect water resources with controlling pollution and noise resources.
2 - 11
Greater Cairo Region Master Plan 1997 by GOPP

Figure 2.2.6
Source: GOPP
2 - 12
For delineation of area-wise development strategies, the GCMP has applied a unique
planning concept of “Homogenous Sectors” that is regarded as an area-wise planning
unit, not an administrative division. The Greater Cairo Region is divided into 16
Homogeneous Sectors, each of which accommodates about 1 to 2 million inhabitants
and plans to be self-sustainable or autonomous unit in terms of urban services and job
opportunities. A population decentralization policy has been guided for these
Homogenous Sectors. The GCMP aims to decentralize the inner sectors towards the
new settlement areas outside the ring road. Although the Homogeneous Sectors of the
central Cairo areas have been actually decreasing the population, the surrounding urban
areas even within the ring road still show an increasing trend in the population.
3) Strategic Urbanization Corridors
The agricultural land areas in the Nile Delta are invaluable assets for the sustainable
development of Egypt, therefore protection of these green areas from encroachment
must be a critical policy. To this end, the GCR depicts a growth control policy in the
north-south bound urban development along the Nile River, and intends to guide the
current urban development momentum toward the east-west directions in desert areas.
The focused new community development is in the line with this growth management
policy.
Five (5) major corridors have been designated in the spatial structure of the GCR to
link the Cairo economy with the other regions, such as Alexandria, Ismailia, Suez and
the upper Nile region. Among them, the northwestern corridor along the desert road
to Alexandria has been recognized as the most significant urban corridor to be further
focused for a strategic urban growth.
Figure 2.2.7 Major Urban Growth Corridors in the GCR
2 - 13
4) New Settlement Projects
An innovative shift of the urban planning and housing policy in the GCR is represented
by the new community development projects initiated by the government in desert
areas, instead of extending urbanization in the agricultural land areas in the Nile River
Delta. The new community concept aimed to provide new settlement land areas to cope
with the increasing housing demands as well as to create self-sufficient new
communities with creation of job opportunities instead of being bed towns of Cairo.
The private sector has been involved in the developments.
Nowadays, five (5) urban agglomerations can be recognized as new community areas
in the suburban are, including eight (8) new town projects. The current status of these
new community developments is tabulated in Table 2.2.2.
The most progressed new communities area the western part of the GCR, consisting of
the 6th of October and the Al Sheikh Zayed town, where a 2 million population is
targeted in total and about 190 thousand housing units have been/are being constructed
as of June 1999. Another huge scale urban agglomeration is the eastern part of the
GCR, consisting of three towns such as the 10th of Ramadan, the Sherouq town and the
Badar town, where an approximately 2 million population is expected, and a total of
122 thousand housing units have been/are being constructed as of June 1999. The
almost matured new community is the 15th of May that was started in 1978. The target
population is 250 thousand there, and as of June 1999, about 36 thousand housing units
have been built up. The New Cairo, located just outside the Ring Road, is being
developed with a 750 thousand population targeted. About 83 housing units have
been/are being constructed as of June 1999. The other notable new community is the
Obour City, located in the northeastern part outside the Ring Road. A half million
people are to be accommodated there.
It can be generally recognized in the new community structure that two urban
agglomerations with a 2 million population are to be located in the east and west side
of the GCR, centering on the 10th of Ramadan and the 6th of October respectively, and
another 1.5 million inhabitants are located in the three major new communities such as
the Obour, the New Cairo and the 15th of May towns.
It should be noted that there exists a great discrepancy between the figures of the 1998
population described in Table 2.2.2 and the number of the residents which could be
projected from the number of the housing units in June 1999, which is indicated in the
far-right column in the same table. This means that a remarkable number of vacant
housing units exist due to a failure of marketing or a great number of non-resident
owners. For identification of the current progress of these new community
developments, Figure 2.2.8 indicates a comparison among the targeted population, the
1998 population and potential inhabitants which could be accommodated in the
housing units (as of June 199). As seen in this figure, the most progressed
developments are the 15th of May, followed by the New Cairo and the 6th of October.
2 - 14
It can be said in general that a more or less 30 to 40% has been achieved in terms of
provision of housing units in the new communities as a whole in the GCR.
To achieve the planned decentralization by facilitating the new community

developments, several efforts should be further made by relevant entities through
encouragement of more strategic marketing activities, creation of more attractive living
environment, provision of sufficient infrastructures, creation of more job opportunities
and development of more convenient transport systems.
Table 2.2.2 New Community Developments in the GCR

Total Area (sq. km) Population (‘000) No. of Potential
Built-up Inhabitants to
New Community Original
Original Revised Revised Housing Units Accommodate
Master 1998
Master Plan Target Target in June 1999 in June 1999 (1)
Plan
1 6th of October 360 408 500 1,500 260 155,139 651,584
2 Al Sheikh Zayed 33 39 500 500 0 35,770 150,234
West (1+2) 393 447 1,000 2,000 260 190,909 801,818
3 Sherouq 19 45 500 500 42 38,190 160,398
4 Badr 73 73 430 430 0 20,284 85,193
th
5 10 of Ramadan 398 398 500 1,000 150 63,685 267,477
East (3+4+5) 490 516 1,430 1,930 192 122,159 513,068
th
6 15 of May 27 35 250 250 190 35,834 150,503
7 New Cairo 37 157 750 750 98 82,833 347,899
8 Al Obour 88 68 500 500 50 34,010 142,842
Total 1,035 1,223 3,930 5,430 790 465,745 1,956,129
Source: GOPP and a projection by the JICA Study Team.
Notes: Potential population to accommodate in June 1999 was projected, multiplying the number of housing units by an
average household size 4.2.
1,600
1,400 Target
Potential Pop. June 1999
1,200
1998 Population
1,000
Population ('000)
800
600
400
200
0
Al Sheikh Zayed
New Cairo
Sherouq
10th of Ramadan
6th of October
Al Obour
Badr
15th of May
Figure 2.2.8 A Comparison among Target Population, 1998 Population and Potential
Inhabitants by New Community Development
2 - 15
5) Ring Roads for the GCR Spatial Structure
A classical type of ribbon development has taken place in several radial corridors in the
GCR. However, the Ring Road, of which the construction started in 1985, has given a
new urbanization pattern that allows us to envisage a more structural and strategic
development pattern, thereby extending a wider urban planning discussion for locations
of major urban economic activities such as industrial and cargo distribution facilities as
well as new commercial facilities. Currently, the GOPP has urged a planning
argument for two project concepts in this regard. One is concerned with the
completion of the Ring Road and its connection with the Alexandria desert road for
complete formulation of a regional network. The completion of the Ring Road must
be an urgent issue. The other is with the so-called Regional Ring Road, which is
located in about 100 km radius areas encompassing outside the GCR.
The GOPP gives a priority to the southern part of the Regional Ring Road to integrate
suburban economic agglomerations into a wider metropolitan region, and to provide
functional linkages between the GCR and the other regional economies. Yet, the
concept of the Regional Ring Road needs to be further scrutinized from the economic
feasibility and transport planning point of view.
Source: GOPP
Figure 2.2.9 A General Concept of the Regional Ring Road
2 - 16
6) Urban Growth Management
No clear-cut legislative frameworks effectively practical for the urban growth

management have been developed yet in the urban planning administration. A zoning
system based on a long-term landuse plan has not been enacted to control locations and
new development activities, either. The administration of land development and
construction of buildings are managed with a permission-based system by the local
Governorate in consultation with the GOPP, if is necessary. Thus, a comprehensive
urban planning system is needed to establish.
2.3 CURRENT SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION
2.3.1 The Study Area

In the Terms of Reference, the JICA Study Area has been defined in a general manner.
The study should cover the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area (GCMA) and a number of
specifically mentioned new towns located outside the GCMA, for example, the new
urban communities 6th of October and 10th of Ramadan. It was further stipulated that
the transportation planning had to be executed at the local administrative unit of
shiakha and¥or village level.
Considering these guidelines, the JICA team has delineated and defined more in detail
the boundaries of the Study Area. Practical methods to achieve this included the use of
existing topographical maps, planning maps such as the Greater Cairo Master Plan, and
any available administrative maps. Since the boundaries could not always be clearly
determined in some fringe areas, such as the western boundary in the Governorate of
Giza and the northern boundary in the Governorate of Qalyobeyya, interviews with the
respective governors and with officers of GOPP have been held to confirm the exact
coverage of the Study Area and its delineation. In principle, and where possible, the
boundary of the Study Area follows existing administrative unit boundaries i.e. qisms,
markaz and¥or shiakhas. Table 2.3.1, shown below, provides summary data on the
geographical coverage and administrative units contained within the Study Area. For
this table, the Governorate of Sharqia has not been included (only the 10th of Ramadan
is contained in the Sharqia Governorate).
2 - 17
Table 2.3.1 Study Area and Coverage of Administrative Units

Cairo Giza Qalyobeyya Total
Population 1996 (in 6,790 4,779 2,081 13,650
‘000s), Greater Cairo
Region:
JICA Study Area:
Population 1996 (in ‘000s) 6,801 3,975 2,328 13,103
% of each Govern. 100% 83% 87% 96%
No. of qism¥markaz: 36 14 7 59
No. of shiakhas ¥village 292 144 94 530
Total population (in ‘000s) 13,151 (96%)
inc 10th of Ramadan
(Governorate of Sharqia)
Source: Greater Cairo Atlas, GOPP; Study Area data calculated by JICA Study Team
Table 2.3.1 indicates that the JICA Study Area covers a high percentage (96 %) of the
total population of the three main Governorates covered by the Study. This implies that
any analysis of socio-economic characteristics studied at the Governorate level would
be fully representative for the entire Study Area. The main advantage of this
geographic feature is obvious: a number of statistical data are only available at
Governorate level; for some analysis the use of statistics on Governorate level would
simplify work procedures. It should be noted that there are some discrepancies between
official data sources e.g. the population of Cairo Governorate is given as 6.79 mln from
some sources whilst from CAPMAS the calculated figure was 6.80 mln. However, it
must be considered that these differences are nominal.
At this stage of the project socio-economic analysis of this report will focus on main
development characteristics and trends. Therefore, only the administrative levels of
Governorates, strategic sectors and qisms¥ markaz are considered. Analysis at shiakha
and village level now is too much detailed to be meaningful. The study work program
has carried out an extensive socio-economic household survey at the detailed
administrative shiakha level. In order to establish an initial socio-economic framework
at shiakha level to support the required detailed survey work and its subsequent
analysis, the Consultant has prepared a first crude estimate of key socio-economic
parameters at this level. A most important anchor parameter is total population in each
shiakha. Fortunately, this key parameter could be extracted from the official recent
Census 1996 database, published by CAPMAS, the national statistical office. The
socio-economic household survey in the JICA Study Area has generated a number of
important and updated new key parameters, for example: the level and type of local
employment, and household income.
Use of strategic sectors in the Study Area:
For the purpose of an aggregated and more planning oriented strategic analysis and
synthesis, information has been aggregated into much larger strategic sectors. These
strategic sectors are outlined below in Figure 2.3.1. These sectors follow closely
homogenous zones developed by GOPP.
2 - 18
Figure 2.3.1 Strategic Sectors

Source: CAPMAS, JICA Study Team
2 - 19
2.3.2 Macro-economic Development of Egypt and Cairo
(1) Macro-Economic Developments (1996-2001)
At the start of the economic structural reform program launched in 1991 by the
government, with the assistance of the IMF and the World Bank, Egypt’s economy
experienced a situation of slow growth, high inflation (20 % per annum), large fiscal-
and current account deficits, and a huge foreign debt burden (USD 51 billion or 144 %
of the 1990/1 GDP). Three years later the Reform Program (ERSAP) and other
economic measures (phased foreign debt relief after the Gulf war efforts) proved to
yield substantial results: fiscal discipline was re-instated, inflation fell rapidly and
economic growth increased to almost 5 % in 1995/96. The Egyptian government and
the IMF agreed on a new structural reform aid program (USD 291 million) in October
1996 aiming at a broader package of structural economic reforms covering
privatization of state enterprises, deregulation, trade liberalization, fiscal and financial
sectors reform, and energy prices adjustments. Since 1996 the structure and growth
performance of Egypt’s economy has further improved.
Real economic growth increased from an annual average of 3.3 % in the period 1991/2
- 1995/6 to 5.4 % in the four years from FY1996/7 to 2000/1. Per capita growth jumped
from an annual 1.3 % to 3.8 %. By the end of fiscal year (FY, ending June 30th)
2000/01), Egypt’s GDP reached nearly LE 360 billion (USD 92 billion), or USD 1432
per capita against USD 1257 in 1996/7 (+ 14 %). Since the end of year 2000, the
economy has faced a markedly slower growth. It is estimated that GDP will increase by
probably not more than 3.5 %. With the devaluation of August 2001 (official exchange
rate: 1USD= LE 4.3 at that time), GDP by end of June 2002 is estimated to be USD 88
billion.
Inflation fell drastically: from a high 20 % in 1991/2 to an average of 11 % in the years

1991/2-1995/6, and a much lower average of 3.2 % in recent years 1996/7-2000/1. This
could have been achieved by economic and fiscal measures, for example: lower
subsidies to public services and state enterprises, and a better controlled national
budget policy. State budget deficits in 1995/6 were slashed to 5 %, and to 4.2 % in
1998/9. Total interest payments of government domestic debt stabilized at
approximately LE 12.2 to 12.8 billion in the years 1995/6 and 1998/9 respectively
(22 % of current budget). Foreign debt interest payments fell from LE 4.7 billion in
1993/4 to LE 2.6 billion in 1998/9.
From a macro-economic perspective, weak points in the economic structure are the
imbalance between exports and imports, and the slow pace of broader economic
reforms, in particular the privatization and deregulation process. For instance, the
structure of export commodities (except petroleum products) indicates, in the period
1990-98, a declining share of industrial products; on the other hand, trade imports
indicate that the share of manufactured goods (including many luxury consumption
items and cars) increased. With respect to the reform program, the government takes a
2 - 20
(slow) step-by-step approach. Indeed, many required legislative measures have been
taken already, but implementation of practical reforms still faces some bureaucratic
barriers. This may be one of the reasons that much needed domestic and foreign
investments are still at a relatively low level. A more vigorous implementation of a
wider reform program enabling higher economic growth (6 % - 7 % per year) is an
urgent policy measure in view of persistent social problems of poverty and the need to
create an average of 500,000 additional jobs per year during the next 10 to 15 years.
The export performance needs much improvements and should be broadened. New
foreign exchange resources are required to replace the lower levels of foreign aid and
the traditional remittances of Egyptians working abroad, mainly in the Gulf countries.
The recent economic slow down has created new problems for the current government
budget. The proposed draft budget for FY 2001/2002 indicated a net budget deficit of
LE 21 billion (USD 6 billion or 21 % of government income resources). If approved,
the level of budget deficits of the last few years will jump from -1 % in 1997 and 1998,
-3.7 % in 2000, to approximately -6.5 % of GDP.
A summary of macro-economic indicators and trends to illustrate these developments,

for the country as a whole, is shown in Table 2.3.2 below.
2 - 21
Table 2.3.2 Egypt: Indicators of Recent Macro-Economic Development
1991/2- 1991/2-
1996/7 1997/8 1998/9 1999/0 2000/1 2001/2
1995/6 1995/6
(5 yrs) (FY ending 30 June) (4 yrs)
Population: in million 2.0% 60.3 61.4 62.6 63.4 64.4 1.7% 65.5
Labor force, in million: 3.1% 22.3 22.7
Recorded unemployment (%) 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.5
GDP in LE billion (at constant factor 96/97): 239.5 253.1 268.4 285.8 295.2 305.5
GDP, aver. annual growth rate: 3.3% 5.3% 5.7% 6.0% 6.5% 3.3% 5.4% 3.5%
GDP in LE billion (current factor costs) 239.5 262.7 289.1 317.4 334.5 354.7
GDP at market prices: in LE. Billion 256.3 280.9 309.1 334.3 359.6 8.8% 378.4
GDP per capita in LE (market, nominal): 4,250 4,575 4,938 5,273 5,584 7.1% 5,782
Real growth per capita (LE): 1.3% 3.8%
exchange rate: LE per USD, annual aver.: 3.38 3.4 3.4 3.47 3.9 4.3
GDP in USD billion (market prices) 75.8 82.6 90.9 96.3 92.2 88.0
GDP per head (USD) 1,257.5 1,345.5 1,452.3 1,519.7 1,431.8 3.3% 1,344.5
Average inflation (% change p.a.) 6.2 3.8 3.8 2.7 2.4 2.5
inflation index 11.0% 100.0 103.8 107.7 111.1 113.3 3.2% 116.1
Gross domestic savings (LE billion) 37.5 43.1 49.2 55.0 61.3
Gross domestic investments (LE billion) 51.9 60.0 69.8 76.5 79.5
Gross domestic investments (USD billion) 15.4 17.7 20.5 22.0 20.4
Investments as % of total GDP in market prices 18.0% 20% 21% 23% 23% 22% 22%
Exports of goods and services (USD billion) 16.6 15.6
Imports of goods & services (USD billion) 20.6 22.7
Balance of goods & services (USD billion): -4.0 -7.0 -6.6 -5.9
Transfers: official (net): 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9
Transfers: private (net): 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.8
Total external debt (USD billion): (USD 51bn in 28.8 28.1 28.2 27.8 27.1
Foreign debt (% of GDP) Fy1990¥91) 38% 34% 31% 29% 29%
Foreign-exchange reserves (USD billion) 19.4 18.8 18.1 15.1 14.2
Outstanding debt and debt payments:
Total public debt (as % of GDP): 104.3% 100.6% 94.1% 93.1%
Total public debt (LE billion): 267.3 282.6 290.9 311.3
Public external debt (LE billion): 97.3 95.5 95.9 96.5
Public domestic debt (LE billion): 170.0 187.0 195.0 214.8
foreign interest payments (LE billion): 3.1 2.7 2.6
domestic interest payments (LE billion): 12.3 12.2 12.8
Sources: Ministry of Economy and Foreign Trade, Quarterly Digest (Dec.2000), World Bank Development data 2000 CD-rom; and updates
from the EIU (The Economist)
(2) National Development Planning
The Egyptian government’s Vision 2017 document outlines its longer term
development goals to be achieved over a period of two decades beginning in 1997.
These goals focus on economic growth, reduction of poverty, full employment, the
enhanced well-being of the population (with emphasis on education), access to family
planning, improved maternal and child health care, population redistribution,
environmental protection and management of natural resources. The Government of
Egypt's programmatic approach includes, for example:
• Accelerated and steady economic growth led by the private sector:
2 - 22
GDP average annual growth rates are targeted at 6.8 % during the period 1997-2002,
and 7.6 % during the years 2003-2017; total GDP is expected to increase 4.3 times
from LE 256 billion in 1996 to LE 1,100 billion by 2017. Growth of the private sector
would be enhanced through accelerated investments and increased privatization of
state-owned enterprises and government services.
• Population growth is targeted to decrease from the current level of 1.8 % to 1.2 %
per year in 2017, or an average annual rate of 1.53 %; hence, Egypt’s total population
is expected to increase from 59 million in 1996 to 80 million in 2017.
Existing desert lands allocated for reclamation/agriculture are located both in the north
and south of the country. The north: near the Suez canal, the north coast and the
north-east part of the Sinai, along the western Mediterranean coast (El Daboa); in the
south: the South Valley program at Toshka on the western bank of Lake Nasser (first
phase is 5,000 km2); and the East Oweinat program (south west of Toshka, with a
potential to develop 1.89 km2 of agricultural land according to the Egypt Almanac
2003, based on substantial quantities of subterranean water). All these programs
together may increase the area under cultivation by 40 %. However, costs will be huge;
for example, the Toshka irrigation program alone is estimated to require a total of USD
88 billion by 2017. In principle, the government is committed to provide the needed
infrastructure for these programs (20 % - 25 % of the total investments), while it is
expected that the private sector will invest in developing the agricultural projects,
industries, supporting services, etc..
Lands allocated for construction of new urban communities are dispersed over
different parts of the country; however, the most important and largest sites developed
so far are located in the Cairo Region (see also section 2.3.4 regarding the new
towns). Land allocated for tourism projects are concentrated in various regions: in the
Western Desert Oasis, the Sinai desert and beaches, and mainly along the Red Sea
coastline. Targets for development of the tourism sector in Egypt are very ambitious:
the number of international tourist arrivals is expected to increase from 4 million in
1997 to 27 million in year 2017, or an average annual growth rate of 10 %. To
accommodate the number of visitors some 600,000 rooms are required until 2017 (of
which 50 % are planned along the Red Sea, and 19 % in the Cairo Region). The
principal arguments for encouraging tourism development is that the sector
contributes to large foreign exchange earnings and creates new employment
opportunities for the people living in remote areas.
The main indicators and targets, proposed by the Egyptian government, are shown
below in Table 2.3.3.
2 - 23
Table 2.3.3 Main Indicators & Targets of Egypt’ s Economy (2017)
Items: 1996 (actual) Egypt: Long term targets (2017)

in 2017 assumptions
5.5 % of total area or 25% of total area or
1. Inhabited area:
55,000 km2 250,000 km2
growth rate:
2. Population: 59 million 80 million
annual aver. 1.5%
LE 256 billion LE 1,100 billion
3. GDP growth
4.8 % during the last average 7.6 % per
GDP growth rate:
15 years year
500,000 new jobs
4. Employment 15.8 million 27 million
per year
5. International tourism:
growth rate=
arrivals: 4 million 27 million
10 % per year
number of rooms required: 76,000 600,000
Source: Egypt and 21st Century, Cabinet 1997. Statistical Yearbook for actual data.
(3) The Fourth (1997-2002) and Fifth 5-Year Plan (2002-2007)
The present 5-Year Plan (July 1997-June 2002) has reached its last year of
implementation. The original plan projected an average annual growth rate of 7 % for
the national economy; a breakdown of sectoral growth rates is shown in the following
Table 2.3.4. Sectors with the highest annual growth rates are: the tourism sector
(12.9 %), industry & construction (10.8 %), public utilities (10.2 %), and transport &
communications (8.4 %). If fully implemented according to plan, total GDP of Egypt
should reach a value of approximately LE 358 billion by June 2002 (at constant June
1997 prices).
The original plan required total investments in the order of LE 400 billion; a sectoral
investment breakdown is presented in Table 2.3.4. The private sector is expected to
provide some 70 % of total investments. The sector transport & communications would
require LE 44 billion, of which approximately 50 % is to be funded by the private
sector.
2 - 24
Table 2.3.4 Egypt’s Fourth 5-Year Plan (July 1997- June 2002)
Items: 1996 (actual) Egypt: 5-Year plan target (2002)
Growth target Situation in
1997-2002 June 2002
Growth rate: annual
1 Population: 59 million 65 million
aver. 1.6 %
2 GDP LE 255.8 billion
LE 358 billion
aver. GDP/ capita (in USD where USD 1,282
USD 1,629
1USD = LE3.38 year 1996/97): 5.5 % during 7 % during
GDP growth rate: the last 9 years 5 years
3 Growth by main sectors:
Total: 6.9 %
agriculture: 4.2 %
oil & gas: 1.1 %
in LE billion:
industry and construction: 10.8 %
360
public utilities: 10.2 %
transport & communication: 8.4 %
commerce & finance: 7.6 %
tourism: 12.9 %
housing: 7.4 %
Source: Fourth Five-Year Plan, Ministry of Planning.
Table 2.3.5 Planned Investments in the Fourth 5-Year Plan (1997-2002)

Investments
Share of private
Sectors: (constant 1997 % of each sector
sub-sectors
prices)
LE billion in %
Total LE 400 billion 100.0 % 279
70 %
1. agriculture: 45.9 11.5 28.5 62
2. oil & gas: 30.8 7.7 25.1 81.5
3. industry and construction: 92.1 23 84 91.2
4. electric power 28.6 7.1 17 59.4
5. other public utilities: 18.3 4.6 0 0
6. transport & communic.. 44.1 11 19.5 44.2
7. commerce & finance: 10.3 2.6 7.4 71.8
8. tourism: 32 8 31.1 97.2
9. housing: 56.8 14.2 55.5 97.7
10.education 14.8 3.7 2.2 14.9
11. all others (e.g. health..) 26.3 6.6 8.7 33
Source: Fourth Five-Year Plan, Ministry of Planning.
At the time of report writing, there was no interim review of the Fourth 5-year plan
available. Preparations for the Fifth 5-year plan have started but only sketchy
information has appeared in the press, so far.
(4) Government Policies relevant for the Study Area
The Egyptian government is well aware that its ambitious economic program aiming at
a long-term real annual growth rate of 7% to 8 % can only be achieved by pursuing
2 - 25
vigorously an extensive reform program covering a series of macro-economic measures

and adjustments affecting the existing structure of the national economy. A number of
key fields and measures of this reform program and existing economic incentives are
quite relevant for the Greater Cairo Region which accounts for an estimated 32 % of
Egypt’s GDP in 1996 (see also section 3.6). These economic measures are briefly
explained in this section: (i) the privatization program, (ii) new legal measures to boost
foreign investments and recent trends of FDI’s (foreign direct investments) and (iii)
involvement of the private sector in the development of infrastructure.
1) Privatization Program
In 1996, when the privatization program began in earnest, 34 % of the workforce in

Egypt was employed by the government: 4 million people were employed by the
central and local government and service authorities, nearly one million in public
enterprises, and 500,000 with the public economic authorities. The public enterprise
sector, from which 314 companies were drawn for privatization, accounted for 10 % of
GDP and employed 6 % of the total workforce prior to the privatization program being
launched. By the end of 1998, shares of some 118 companies had been offered for sale.
Strictly speaking, many of the companies included in the program have not been
privatized, as the proportion of shares sold was too small. Majority stakes were sold in
only 46 cases. For some time, the government apparently held the view that injecting
new, private management, in combination with selling off minority shares to private
investors would revive the bulk of the original public companies. In 1997 the slow pace
of privatization forced the government to get the assistance of investment bankers to
manage implementation of the program. By the end of 1998 the privatization program
recorded accumulated sales of LE 13.7 billion.
The overall economic impact of the program and other measures to encourage growth
of the private can be judged, for example, by the increasing share of the private sector
(65 %) in total GDP. Another positive sign is the creation between 1995 and 1998 of
3,800 new private sector companies with a total investment of LE 16 billion.
2) Foreign Investments
Foreign investments in Egypt have started to increase since 1995/6. By the end of 1998
the FDI stock (foreign direct investments) amounted to USD 8.1 billion or
approximately LE28 billion. The sector breakdown was: 52 % in manufacturing (USD
4.2 billion), 37 % in agriculture, and 11 % in other sectors including tourism. Among
the larger emerging markets Egypt ranked 23rd in 1998 in the series of countries
receiving foreign direct investments. The LE 28 billion FDI are probably only a small
-but most welcome- fraction (15 % ) of total gross investments realized in Egypt during
the 3-year period 1995/6 to 1998/9, which is an estimated LE 185 billion. In 1998
Egypt received USD 800 million FDI which is only 0.65 % of the USD 123 billion FDI
direct investments in 23 emerging markets world-wide. Though its present share of
total FDI’s is relatively small, Egypt’s potential to attract FDI’s is more favorable.
2 - 26
According to UNCTAD the US companies which have invested in Egypt show an

average rate of return of 22 %, a higher rate compared with other emerging countries
and a much higher rate than in Europe.
The Foreign Investment Law nr.8 of May 1997:
The Law for Investment Guarantees and Incentives was issued to replace the
Investment Law nr.230 of 1989. Companies that were established under the abolished
law will continue to enjoy the tax exemptions and guarantees provided for this until
they legally expire. Important activities and projects eligible for tax incentives include
e.g: manufacturing, mining, land reclamation, hotels and tourism villages, tourism
transport, air and marine transportation, residential housing, infrastructure projects,
venture capital activities, computer software, etc. Free zones also come under Law
nr.8 of 1997. Projects in free zones can be established to carry out the above mentioned
activities. The project can adopt any legal form recognized by Egyptian law but usually
it takes the form of a joint-stock company. Some important tax exemptions and
guarantees provided by Law nr.8 of 1997 are as follows:
(1) Projects inside the country (other than in free zones) enjoy a tax exemption from the
profit tax (corporate tax or personal income tax as the case may be) for five years from
the first financial year following the year during which they become productive or
operational (i.e., capable of generating income from their main activity). However,
projects established within the Old Valley in new urban communities, new industrial
cities and remote zones enjoy these tax holidays for a ten years period. Projects
established outside the Old Valley (such as Toshka, to the South of Aswan), enjoy tax
exemptions for 20 years.
(2) Interest from bonds issued by joint-stock companies under Law nr.8 is exempt from
tax on movable capital provided that the bonds are offered for public subscription and
that they are registered at the Egyptian Stock Exchange (ESE).
(3) Guarantees: (a) projects may not be nationalized or confiscated, except by judicial
procedures; (b) projects are exempt from legal restrictions on the ownership of real
estate by foreigners, or projects with foreign participation; (c) import and export
regulations for these projects are much simplified; (d) projects are allowed to freely fix
the prices of their products without any government intervention or control; (e) the
Investment Authority (Cafi) will assist the investor in acquiring a piece of land for a
project in one of the new urban communities or cities at quite low prices.
The significance of the above mentioned laws, regulations and guarantees for the
development of the existing new towns in the Cairo Region is twofold: (a) the laws and
regulations themselves are liberal and simplify many existing bureaucratic procedures.
(b) from an economic and financial point of view, the laws provide very substantial
incentives to attract a variety of investors to the new urban communities. This is
obvious (tax holidays) in the case of direct equity investments both by domestic and
foreign investors; but, in addition, also some debt funding components of projects are
2 - 27
facilitated for the interested public through the tax exemption applicable to bonds.
Impressive results of the Law nr.8 of 1997 can already been observed in the major new
towns in the Study Area (6th of October, 10th of Ramadan): an estimated 1250 factories
and 170,000 jobs have been created here during the last 5 to 7 years. The expectation is
that the volume of existing productive investments in these new towns near Cairo will
continue to grow rapidly, while the economic process will support employment and
population growth of new towns.
Laws on Establishment of New Urban Communities (nr.59/1979, amended by laws

nr.86-8/1997)
In addition to tax holidays granted under the Investment Law nr.86 of 1997, Law nr.59
of 1979, the New Urban Communities Law exempts projects located in new urban
communities also from all tax on property for 10 years from the commencement of
operations.
Real estate taxes:
These taxes are imposed on the rental income from buildings and agricultural land.
Rental income is assessed by the government every 10 years for all buildings (within
city boundaries) and all agricultural land whether actually rented to others or directly
used or exploited by the owners. The original tax rate on buildings is 10 % for
non-residential buildings, and ranges between 20 and 40 % on residential buildings
depending on the average rental value of the room in a flat. The original tax is assessed
on the net rental value; 20 % of the gross rental value is deducted for maintenance and
expenses. In addition to the original tax there is a complementary tax called guard tax
(khafar tax) whose rate is 20 % of the original tax. Both taxes are borne by the owner
of property.
There are also some local taxes imposed by the governorates. For instance, in Cairo
Governorate the following local duties are valid: (i) municipal duty at 2.67 % of the
net rental value borne by the owner; (ii) occupancy duty at 4 % of the gross rental value
borne by the occupant; and (iii) cleaning duty at 2 % of the gross rental value borne by
the occupant.
The Mortgage Law of July 2001:
The government presented a mortgage law to Parliament. The new law is a novelty in
housing finance in Egypt. If adopted, it will enable institutional investors such as
insurance companies and pension funds to engage in long-term financing of the
housing market. Low-middle income families earning a minimum of LE 1000 per
month (USD 230) would be eligible to obtain long term mortgage loans (20 to 30 year
loans). In theory, the potential market and target group for such loans is very large
(more than 50 % of the population), but little is known about the effective demand and
affordability of urban households for such loans.
2 - 28
Besides the drive to modernize and broaden activities of the financial markets and to
boost savings, the apparent short and medium term reasons of the government to
introduce the instrument of mortgage loans in Egypt have much to do with the
persistently unbalanced situation of the housing market. During the late 1980’s and
early 1990’s thousands of luxury apartment blocks have been constructed in the
country. However, in many locations in the Cairo Region (including the new towns)
and elsewhere a huge number of completed and semi-finished flats have been lying idle
and empty for a long time. A major cause of this phenomenon is a lack of effective
demand and appropriate finance available to end-users. The construction industry and
property developers will certainly welcome implementation of the new mortgage law.
3) Involvement of the Private Sector in the Development of Infrastructure
Egypt is radically reforming the methods by which infrastructure is upgraded to meet

current and future needs. To secure the finance necessary for implementing larger scale
projects the government has moved rapidly towards extensive use of the BOOT
(build-own-operate-transfer) and BOT (build-operate-transfer) project development
systems . Law nr.18 of 1998 has been decreed in order to allow the granting of BOT
concessions and contracts, first for the electricity generation and distribution sectors.
Subsequently ports, including the construction of new ports and upgrading of existing
ones were allowed; later other infrastructure sub-sectors followed. BOT contracts are
eligible both to domestic and foreign investors. Egypt has evolved its use of BOT
schemes on the basis of financing packages which include indemnities from the state as
well as political risk insurance.
The government’s strategy of creating private sector investment opportunities outside

the privatization program had attracted, by early 1999, already more than USD 1.2
billion of investments in various sectors. Private sector power generation, gas
distribution, seaport and airport construction and management, projects for road
building, and private telecommunications are well advanced.
Major projects that have been considered for implementation, but whose status is still
to be confirmed or is subject to change, are, for example: a 650 MW power plant at
Sidi Krier-II with a US contractor (USD 400 million); two 650 MW power stations in
the Gulf of Suez (a USD 1.2 billion BOOT contract, with the Egyptian EEA and the
French EDF), the USD 220 million deal with British Gas International for the
construction of a 500 km gas pipeline from Cairo to Asyut and local distribution
networks. A total of 15 more BOOT power projects are planned for the next two
decades. Plans are being prepared for a major motorway linking Alexandria, Cairo and
the towns of Southern Egypt; another 6 BOT road projects are scheduled in various
parts of Middle and Southern Egypt. A start has been made with offering BOOT
contracts for new airports: in Al Alanien, Marsa Alam airport on the Southern Red Sea
coast, the Ras Sidr airport on the Red Sea of Western Sinai, while two more BOOT
airports are planned at Bahariya and Farafra in the Western Desert and Oasis Region.
2 - 29
2.3.3 Socio-Economic Development Trends
(1) Urban Development and Plans
The reviewed documents contain valuable, sometimes detailed, information concerning

both socio-economic as well as urban land development and urban planning
characteristics in the Study Area (the JICA study of 1989 providing the more
systematic and detailed data and analysis). Any reader wishing to obtain a full analysis
of the recent socio-economic and land development trends in Greater Cairo is
recommended to consult these documents. An abstract of key findings of these studies
is summarized below in Table 2.3.6.
Table 2.3.6 Master Planning and Urban Development Trends
Subject: Features:
Area of recent Covers the urbanized area of Greater Cairo or the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area (GCMA);
Systra Study it comprises 51 qisms and 408 shiakhas with a total population of 11.3 million in 1996.
A first modern Master Plan for Cairo was prepared already in 1953; its horizon was a
projected population of 5 million by the year 2000. A new Plan prepared in 1970 launched
Master the concept of a few satellite towns close to Cairo. The Plan introduced the concept of
constructing a Ring Road in order to contain urban growth of Cairo, and to open up new land
Planning in
for development. The decision to create new towns in the desert was taken in 1973. The
Cairo new Master Plan of 1982 elaborated explicitly the development of 10 satellite towns and new
settlements (later called: new communities) around Cairo. Urban extensions near and beyond
the Ring Road accelerated in the years 1990-92 when state owned desert land was offered for
sale, and when sections of the Ring Road were completed. The new settlements include -to
the West: the cities of 6th of October, and Sadat town; to the East: New Cairo development; to
the North East: Al Obour, Al Shorouk, Badr City, and the 10th of Ramadan, New Cairo
The newest Master Plan version is approved in 1997; it is currently being revised and
adapted.
Population in the Cairo Central areas started to decrease between 1966 and 1976. Cairo
Central Area lost 200,000 inhabitants, while the suburbs increased their population with some
Urban 2 million new inhabitants. Between 1977 and 1982 the total urbanized area increased from
265 km2 to 326 km2 (annual increase of 12 km2).
development
Densities in Cairo were -and are still- notoriously high ; some neighborhoods (like Bab Al
Shaaria) reached 10.5 inhabitants per km2, Relatively new urban districts like Minshat Naser
and Ain Shams also witness high density increases between 5 and 6 persons per km2.
Although there is a regional and local migration trend towards Giza and Qalyobeyya
Governorates, it appears that less than expected arable lands had been urbanized (according
to satellite photo studies: less than 2 km2 per year from 1986 to 1989). In 1996 the GCMA
covered officially 1,581 km2 and counted 13.5 million inhabitants.
Development of the new communities has taken off by massive construction. However,
today, a high share of buildings remain incomplete or vacant.
Source: JICA Study Team
2 - 30
(2) Historic Population Growth Trends within the Study Area
During the inter-census periods 1966-1976-1986 when the population5 of the Greater
Cairo Region grew from 7.09 million to 12.31 million, the average annual growth rate
stayed at a high level for almost twenty years: between 2.6 % and 3 %. Part of the
growth was attributed to migration. After 1986 the annual population growth rate
started to decrease rapidly, to an average 1.9 %, during the recent inter-census period
1986-1996. Recent demographic studies have indicated that future growth of the
Greater Cairo Region will be more in line with the steadily declining national growth
trends.
Main trends and directions of population growth:
In the following Table 2.3.7, recent population trends during the period 1986-1996
within the Study Area are shown. These areas are calculated from the JICA study’s
database and GIS. As such, calculated areas may differ from those utilized by the
GOPP. It is believed that the difference is because GOPP calculate area using built-up
area only whereas the calculations given below are based on geographical area which
would include land that is not built-up. However, because the analysis refers to changes
over time with the same parameters, then the differences between the two approaches
are not relevant and the conclusions would be expected to be similar.
In summary, while the overall growth of population within the Study Area was an
average of 2.1 % per year, the population of Cairo Governorate grew at only 1.5 % per
year. In contrast, the Giza Governorate grew at a double rate of 2.5 % per year, while
population growth in the Qalyobeyya Governorate was even higher with an annual rate
of 3.0 % (almost 50 % above the average Cairo Regional trend). These trends imply
that there are: (a) different (average) natural growth trends in Cairo Governorate
compared with Giza and Qalyobeyya; and (b) there are probably significant internal
(net) urban migration flows from Cairo Governorate to Giza and Qalyobeyya6. Without
differential growth trends in the region, Cairo City’s population would have been
approximately 480,000 higher in 1996, while both Giza and Qalyobeyya would have
respectively 220,000 and 260,000 less people. It must be remembered that, by 1996,
the impact of population growth in the new towns surrounding Cairo had already a
little impact on the divergent suburban growth trends in Cairo Region. The City of 6th
of October registered 35,000 inhabitants, 10th of Ramadan 48,000 and Al-Oboor City
only 1,000: in total 84,000 people or 18 % of the incremental intra-urban migration
flow during the period 1986-1996.
5
‘National Project for Developing Cairo Region, 1997-2017’, Ministry of Planning, 1997
6
See also National Project document for more detailed information
2 - 31
(3) Urban Population in the 1996 Census
The 1996 Census has recorded and published specific data concerning urban
population at regional and district level. Since such data had not been recorded in the
1986 or any previous Census, it is impossible to calculate accurate trends of recent
urbanization processes in larger agglomerations like the Cairo Region, especially in
the semi-urban districts of Giza and Qalyobeyya Governorates. Out of a total 1996
population of 4.2 million in the Giza Study Area (part), the population classified as
urban amounts to 2.5 million or 59 %. The urban population is mainly concentrated in
7 fully urbanized districts and together the 7 districts form effectively the Giza town.
The district of markaz Al-Umraniya has an 80 % urban population. The 1.7 million
rural population is mainly concentrated in the remaining 6 districts: markaz Awsim,
al-Warraq, Imbaba, al-Gizah, al-Badrasayn, and al-Saf. It must be noticed, however,
that the markaz al-Warraq, partly located on an island in the Nile River, has a high
population density (1.48 persons per km2), which is not typical for a rural district.
The Qalyobeyya Study Area (part) has an urban population of 1.1 million or 48 % of
the total. The main urban center is Shruba al-Khayma (860,000 people) and the
smaller town of Qalyub (97,000 people). The other 4 districts have only small urban
populations. Overall, the Study Area, including Cairo City and the new towns , had
in 1996 an urban population of 10.5 million (78 % of the total Study Area), while the
remaining 2.9 million was classified as rural.
Table 2.3.7 Area, Population and Pop Densities by Governorate
Area total Pop Pop. density Urban

Governorate Population Urban total Rural total
(km2) growth (persons/ km2) share
1996 1986 1996 1986-96 1986 1996 1996 1996 1996
Cairo 640 5,856,823 6,800,992 1.5% 0.91 1.06 6,800,748 0 100%
Giza 616 3,097,133 3,974,640 2.5% 0.50 0.65 2,492,171 1,561,267 63%
Qalyobeyya 531 1,726,879 2,327,680 3.0% 0.33 0.44 1,126,962 1,199,375 48%
Sharqeyya (10th of Ramadan 38 47,833 47,833 0 100%
City only)
Total Study Area 182,635 10,680,835 13,151,145 2.1% 10,467,714 2,760,642 80%
Source: CAPMAS
2.3.4 Present Conditions in the Study Area
(1) Development of New Towns in Cairo Region
The recent and future developments of new towns (or new settlements) in the Cairo
Region play a strategic role in the location of future incremental population growth
and economic development in the Study Area. There is almost no recent
socio-economic data available in the latest Census 1996 published reports. Through
interviews with government officials (the GOPP office of the Ministry of Housing),
2 - 32
site visits to selected towns, screening of available new town plans and documents,
and interviews with local Town Council officers, notably their public relations
departments, Consultants were able to prepare a preliminary updated profile of local
conditions in these towns. Following Table 2.3.8 presents key summary data on 9 new
towns located in the Cairo Region. Table 2.3.9 provides more detailed information on
a number of the new towns.
Although data collection and -analysis (including translation from Arabic) was
performed by the team with utmost care, the present reported findings in this section
must be considered as preliminary results, and hence, they should be treated with
caution. The original data are derived from various sources. But even the most
substantial information source (GOPP office) produced sometimes unclearly defined
-and inconsistent- planning data. Thus, the main findings and conclusions of this
section will be sufficient.
2 - 33
Table 2.3.8 Key Summary Data – 9 New Towns
Item 6th of Sheikh New Com- sub-total Sadat sub-total Al Obour Al Shorouk Badr New Cairo 10th of Al Amal sub-total Total
October Zaid City munities West City West City City City City Ramadan City East
nr.-7 (CREATS) (land only)
1 Population (actual)
Cens. 1996 35,000 n.a n.a 35,000 n.a 35,000 n.a n.a n.a n.a 48,000 n.a 48,000 83,000
end year 1998 (actual) n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 0 n.a n.a n.a n.a 80,000 n.a 80,000 80,000
Mid year 2001 (estimate) 200,000 n.a n.a 200,000 n.a 200,000 n.a 42,000 n.a 90,000 196,000 n.a 328,000 528,000
Planned population: (Master plans) GOPP
Long term development: 1,500,000 500,000 n.a 2,000,000 n.a 2,000,000 500,000 500,000 430,000 n.a 1,000,000 n.a 2,430,000 4,430,000
Master Plan -revised 1997: 1,000,000 500,000 n.a 1,500,000 n.a 1,500,000 500,000 500,000 430,000 750,000 500,000 n.a 2,680,000 4,180,000
2 Production & employment:
Census 1996: residents employed (total) 13,270 n.a n.a 13,270 n.a 13,270 294 n.a n.a n.a 17,680 n.a 17,974 31,244
end year 2000, total (estimate) 120,000 n.a n.a 120,000 25,000 145,000 23,000 n.a 19,200 n.a 141,600 n.a 183,800 328,800
nr.of existing factories (Dec.2000) (a) 617 n.a n.a 617 253 870 50 n.a 63 n.a 946 n.a 1,059 1,929
nr.factories under constr.(Dec.2000) (a) 340 n.a n.a 340 155 495 326 n.a 162 n.a 353 n.a 841 1,336
employment in factories (Sept.1999) (a) 104,217 n.a n.a 104,217 24,851 129,068 19,091 n.a 15,619 n.a 117,244 n.a 151,954 281,022
(incl. factories under construction)

employment in factories (end 2000) (b) 99,700 n.a n.a 99,700 25,045 124,745 23,044 n.a 19,231 n.a 117,751 n.a 160,026 284,771
aver. nr.workers per factory (yr2000) 104 n.a n.a n.a 99 n.a 461 n.a 305 n.a 124 n.a 151 148
3 Urban planning (latest update) GOPP
2 - 34
Master Plan - Long Term area: in km2: 1999 40,800 3,900 n.a 44,700 n.a 44,700 6,800 4,500 7,300 15,700 39,800 n.a 74,100 118,800
Master Plan (revised-97), total area: 36,000 3,300 n.a 39,300 n.a 39,300 6,854 4,246 7,300 3,700 23,000 n.a 45,100 84,400
of which urban area, in km2: 26,700 n.a n.a 26,700 n.a 26,700 5,313 1,890 5,170 3,600 23,000 n.a 38,973 65,673
gross pop. density (Master Plan 97): 28 152 38 38 73 118 59 203 22 n.a 59 50
CREATS: Phase I Final Report Vol. III: The Transport Master Plan
nr.dwellings constructed end 1998 34,800 n.a n.a 34,800 n.a 34,800 n.a 22,300 17,500 8,900 22,100 n.a 70,800 105,600
nr.dwellings constructed end 2000 40,700 n.a n.a 40,700 n.a 40,700 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Data sources: (a) Ministry of Housing, Utilities & Urban Communities

Note: 1 feddan= 0.42 ha, 1 km2 = 100 ha
Table 2.3.9 Detailed Data, Selected New Towns

Al Obour New Cairo 10th of
6th of October Al Shorouk Badr City
Item Source City City Ramadan sub-total East Total
** City **
** (two areas) **
1 Population (actual: Mid 2001) 200,000 n.a. 42,000 n.a. 90,000 196,000 328,000 528,000
GOPP
2 Urban planning (latest update) 1999
Master Plan:
Master Plan - Long Term area: in ha: (a) 40,800 6,800 4,500 7,300 15,700 39,800 74,100 114,900
Master Plan (revised-97), total area: (a) 36,000 6,854 4,246 7,300 n.a n.a n.a n.a
of which urban area, in ha: (a) 26,500 5,313 1,890 5,170 2,234 23,000 37,607 64,107
of which parks & green area, in ha: (b) 2,520 n.a n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.a
of which residential area, in ha: n.a n.a n.a. 3,545 n.a n.a n.a
of which infrastruct & utilities, in ha: (a) 5,156 1,837 2,169 630 n.a. 5,693 10,328 15,484
of which industrial zone, in ha: n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4,050 n.a
Developed land:
infrastructure & utilities: ha in 1995: (a) 4,361 1,588 n.a. 518 2,024 4,130 8,491
infrastructure & utilities: ha in 1998: (a) 6,405 1,641 n.a. 918 86 2,904 5,549 11,954
residential land: ha in 1998: n.a n.a. n.a. 1,455 n.a n.a n.a
industrial land developed by 1998, in ha: (a) 10,960 4,538 n.a. 2,907 0 7,020 14,465 25,425
industrial land sold by end 1995, in ha: (a) 4,416 777 n.a. 518 0 5,264 6,559 10,975
industrial land sold by end 1998, in ha: (a) 5,234 1,094 n.a. 1,005 0 5,830 7,929 13,164
industr.land utilised (net plot area) in ha: (b) 842 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 n.a n.a n.a
Developed constructions:
residential units (dwelllings) in 1995 (a) 27,574 n.a. 10,820 13,584 2,032 21,100 47,536 75,110
dwellings in 1998: (a) 34,789 n.a. 22,269 17,456 8,897 22,100 70,722 105,511
dwellings by end of 2000:: (b) 40,695 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.a n.a
community services buildings:
(incl: schools, health, social, public
service, religious, social)
in 1995: (a) 74 3 7 8 74 92 166
in 1998: (a) 75 5 12 11 78 106 181
commercial, office buildings in 1995: (a) 41 1 5 0 63 69 110
commercial & office buildings in 1998 (a) 42 4 7 0 70 81 123
(incl.few industrial service units)
sub-total invest build..s '98:(LE*1000) (a) 309,096 12,719 11,172 54,000 77,891 386,987
Industry (manft.),total invest (LE*1000) (a) yr.2000

existing factories, by end 1995: (a) n.a. 0 n.a. 57,144 n.a. 6,957,488 7,014,632 7,014,632
factories under construction, 1995: (a) n.a. 0 n.a. 102,906 n.a. 1,212,851 1,315,757 1,315,757
existing factories, by end 1998: (a) 3,190,533 46,016 n.a. 288,975 n.a. 12,633,727 12,968,718 16,159,251
factories under construction, 1998: (a) 2,582,257 0 n.a. 312,439 n.a. 788,999 1,101,438 3,683,695
Industry (manft.), total employ. yr2000: (c) 99,737 23,044 n.a. 19,231 n.a. 117,751 160,026 259,763
(includes factories under construction)
Aver.investm.(1998) /worker (LE*1000) 58 2 31 n.a. 114 147 205
Developed infra & utilities (until 1998): until 1998 until 1998
(investment data = in LE*1000)
water supply: network in km: 780 n.a. 548 161 33 944 1,686 2,466
drainage¥ sewerage network in km: 440 n.a. 321 108 21 602 1,051 1,491
total investment costs water+sewerage: 563,183 n.a. 296,500 155,904 67,970 403,907 924,281 1,487,464
roads, network in km: 311 n.a. 31 79 20 361 491 802
telecom, network in km: 722 n.a. 59 228 622 909 1,631
total investm, in roads & telecom: 174,544 n.a. 241,772 52,733 32,730 176,228 503,463 678,007
electricity network in km: 2,887 n.a. 766 723 36 2,370 3,895 6,782
investm, in electricity networks: 416,196 n.a. 121,992 140,437 49,157 280,239 591,825 1,008,021
sub-total invest infrastr. '98:(LE*1000) 1,153,923 n.a. 660,264 349,074 149,857 860,374 2,019,569 3,173,492
increase in total infra-investm.95 to 98: 61% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 66% n.a. n.a.
govern.invest infrastr. '2000: (LE*1000) (b) 1,790,000 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
of which: main infrastructure 1,140,000 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
of which: secondary infrastructure 640,000 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
of which: services: 10,000 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Data sources: (a) Ministry of Housing, Utilities & Urban Communities (c) Ministry of Economy
Note: 1 feddan= 0.42 ha, 1 km2 = 100 ha (b) Local City Council Offices, Public Relations Dept.
2 - 35
(1) New Towns and their Location:
Nine new towns in the region are situated within the Study Area. One of these new
towns, 15th of May, lies within the existing boundaries of Cairo city; it is located in
the south near Helwan district. The town covers a gross area of 1,260 ha (12.6 km2).
Development started in the early 1980’s; its population increased from 24,000 in
1986 to 66,000 in 1996 (Census data). This is an established new town and,
therefore, little reference has been made, for analytical purposes, to the settlement
for the remainder of this section
The city 10th of Ramadan, is located in the eastern desert on the road to Ismailya, at
a distance of 50 km from Cairo center. The majority of the new town sites are
located closer to Cairo. Distances to Cairo center vary between 20 km (New
Cairo, 15th of May), and 30 to 35 km (6th of October, Madinat Al-Oboor, Madinat
Al-Shorouq, Madinat Badr). Sheikh Zaid City and New Communities No. 7 are
very close to 6th of October. It is understood that development at these latter two
cities is at a preliminary stage. For the purposes of this study, therefore, the
information obtained for these two cities has been aggregated with 6th of October.
An additional new town, Sadat City, lies outside the Study Area and is located
along the desert road to Alexandria, at a distance of approximately 50 km from
Cairo. This settlement is also only briefly referred for the analysis contained in this
section of the report.
(2) Master Plans, Planned Land Use and Population Capacity of New Towns:
Master Plans have been prepared for all new towns, while plans for individual
towns have been integrated in an overall Greater Cairo Master Plan (GCMP),
already in 1982. Since then, the GCMP has been reviewed, adapted and officially
approved several times: for instance in 1992 and most recently in 1997. Currently,
the existing GCMP is again being reviewed and updated. Overall, there is a
tendency to enlarge the gross plan area of most new towns. Apparently, land use
plans of specific towns are also adapted to new market conditions and land demands
for new functions. For example, plans for 6th of October have incorporated new and
extended functions for recreation and tourism. The plans for New Cairo have been
adjusted to market trends demanding more spacious residential development (villa
style).
One remarkable feature of most new town Master Plans is their very extensive land
utilization (plans). The addition of total gross master plan area of 7 new towns in
the Study Area amounts to 84,400 ha (844 km2); 39,300 ha (393 km2) is situated in
the western desert (mainly 6th of October but also Sheikh Zaid City); and 45,100 ha
(451 km2) is located in the eastern desert (Madinat Al-Aboor, Shorouq City,
Madinat Badr, New Cairo but mainly the city 10th of Ramadan with 23,000 ha (230
km2)). The vast scale of these planned developments can be understood when these
areas are compared with the existing urban development of Greater Cairo. For
instance, the area defined in the recent Systra study Greater Cairo Metropolitan
Area, covers all of Cairo City’s 41 qisms with 57,700 ha (577 km2), the 7 urban
qisms in Giza Governorate with 10,200 ha (102 km2), and 3 urban qisms in
2 - 36
Qalyobeyya with 3,760 ha (376 km2), or a total of approximately 72,000 ha (720

km2) and 11.3 million inhabitants in 1996.
The planned long term (year 2022) capacity of all new towns is set at approximately
4.5 million inhabitants. Overall gross densities would be in the order of 0.5 persons
per km2 (compared with present 1.57 persons per km2 in Cairo Metropolitan Area).
Obviously, major spatial differences between the existing Cairo urban area and the
new towns are the constraints of the desert environment, the inclusion and creation
of larger green areas or green belts, and the deliberate choice to create a different
and more spacious urban environment than existing densely populated Cairo.
(3) Land Development and Costs:
Unfortunately, available GOPP planning and monitoring documentation concerning

implemented project works in most new towns is not always precise enough and not
up-to-date. For example, concerning land- and infrastructure development, one
would expect a clear and classic reporting of the quantities of planned and
implemented functional areas, such as: residential (gross and¥or net area), area used
for infrastructure, industrial area, parks and other green or open air functions,
education and other communal services, and commercial areas. Such clearly defined
data or lacking, even a key item like developed residential land. Only, indirectly can
one assess the scope of actual developments, for example: by comparing the
number of constructed dwelling units with other plan items (the length of water
supply networks, roads, etc..
A recent field visit to the 6th of October City clarified some urban planning data.
For example, it was confirmed that the officially designated new town area (within
its official boundaries) covered 36,000 ha (360 km2). But only 8,400 ha (84 km2)
are assigned as built-up area; this includes residential zones, the 1,000 ha (10 km2)
industrial zone (gross area), and all its local supporting infrastructure like roads,
space for local commercial and services functions, etc. The larger green belts and
agricultural land being developed at the edges of the city are not included in the
8,400 ha (84 km2) built-up area.
For some of the new towns infrastructure development costs incurred until 1998 are
well reported in GOPP documents. For five new towns (6th of October, Shorouq
City, Madinat Badr, New Cairo and 10th of Ramadan) total investment costs for
infrastructure sub-sectors water supply, drainage/sewerage, road network, telecom
and power supply amounted to almost LE 3.2 billion, of which LE 1,154 million for
the 6th of October city and to LE 860 million for the 10th of Ramadan. Referring to
the total urban area as defined in each Master Plan, respectively 26,500 ha (265
km2) and 23,000 ha (230 km2), the average cost per km2 would, for these towns,
amount to LE 435 per km2 (6th of October) and LE 374 per km2 (10th of Ramadan).
However, the data by end of 1998 show only a partial picture of the overall needed
investments in infrastructure. The Town Council public relations office of 6th of
October reported that, by the end of year 2000, total investment cost for
infrastructure has increased to LE 17.9 million or LE 675 per km2.
2 - 37
(4) Existing Infrastructure Development, Construction of Buildings:
Table 2.3.9 provides a fairly comprehensive picture of the infrastructure networks

completed until the end of 1998. For example: for the indicated new towns
(excluding Madinat Al-Aboor) approximately 2,500 km of water supply systems
has been developed, 1,500 km of drainage/sewerage networks, 800 km of roads,
1,600 km of telecom network, and 6,800 km of electric power line networks.
Apparently, these data concern all types of land development in the new towns,
including the new industrial estates.
(5) Existing Population and Employment:
Today, of the new towns in the Study Area, the two most important, both in terms
of population and employment, are the cities 6th of October and the 10th of
Ramadan. By June 2001, these towns had approximately 200,000 inhabitants each,
and 217,000 local industrial jobs (respectively 100,000 jobs in 6th of October, and
117, 000 industrial jobs in 10th of Ramadan). Total current population residing in all
new towns of the Study Area is estimated at some 530,000. The planned long term
(year 2022) capacity of all new towns is set at approximately 4.5 million
inhabitants.
In addition to jobs in the manufacturing sector, it is obvious from quick site visits to
the two main new towns that local permanent employment is also created in other
sectors like: government and private services, commercial development, the
recreation sector, local transportation, and utilities. A third major sector of local
employment is found in the construction activities. Construction, usually considered
as a temporary and ‘foot-loose’ activity and source of employment, plays in the
early- and medium-term phases of new town development a crucial role of
semi-permanent job creator with impact on other local service sectors as well. The
type of jobs and skills may change over time from road and other infrastructure
builders to housing construction, maintenance activities and more service oriented
smaller scale home-improvement business. For a considerable period, say 10 to 15
years, ‘local’ employment generated by construction activities in new towns will
have a relatively larger impact (share) on total local employment.
For some time in their development cycle new towns will have a skewed, not a
standard overall local employment profile. Yet, it implies that there will be a
minimum level of local jobs in commercial and service activities. A reasonable
reference point to gauge such minimum ‘local job level’ can be found from
previous urban studies in the Cairo Region. For instance, in the JICA
‘Transportation Master Plan’ of 1989, it is found that local districts (qisms) in the
suburbs of Cairo have a minimum ratio of 80 jobs per 1000 inhabitants (compared
with an average of 160 jobs in the whole town), and a maximum of 640 jobs per
1000 inhabitants in the CBD area. Hence, a level of 100 extra jobs per 1000
inhabitants (all sectors besides manufacturing) may be considered as a minimum of
additional local employment in new towns.
Finally, a comprehensive profile of employment in the Cairo Region new towns,

has to distinguish both the total level of overall available local jobs, and the
2 - 38
employment level of residents, considering both the flows of incoming and

outgoing job commuters. Unfortunately, so far, no up-to-date and official data or
estimates could be obtained concerning employment in other sectors than local
manufacturing. The Home Interview Survey results, undertaken for this study, are
of assistance in obtaining reasonable estimates of local employment characteristics
in the entire Study Area, including the new towns.
(6) Industries:
Perhaps one of the major attraction factors contributing to the recently observed
faster growth of new towns in the Cairo Region, is the development of the industrial
sector in these towns. Government policy supports the location and creation of new
domestic and foreign (mainly) manufacturing establishments through several
economic and financial incentives, for instance: (i) the provision and easy access to
relatively cheap and well planned and serviced industrial sites, and (ii) the granting
of a five to ten-years tax holiday. As a result of this policy, effectively implemented
during the last 5 to 8 years, substantial basic employment has been created in the
Study Area in four new towns classified as industrial towns. The larger
concentrations of new industrial jobs occurred in the two largest towns: 6th of
October and 10th of Ramadan. The other officially classified new ‘industrial towns’
are Madinat Al-Oboor and Madinat Badr (Shorouq City and New Cairo do not
belong to this category; and presumably, financial incentives for industrial
investments do not apply to these towns).
From Table 2.3.8, it can be observed that, by the end of year 2000, total
employment in the manufacturing sector in all new towns of the Study Area
amounted to approximately 260,000 jobs (the official ‘industrial’ towns Sadat City,
and 15th of May are not considered here). The latter figure includes the number of
(planned) jobs in factories under construction. Overall, there are 1,676 existing
factories, and 1,181 factories units under construction, or a total of 2,857. A
detailed review of the case 6th of October city indicates that approximately 70 % of
the total employment is attributed to existing factories.
(7) The Case of 6th of October City:
Besides the data reported above, some interesting features of the development
process of this new town were given to the Consultants during a short interview
with the local Town Council ‘s public relations office. These are detailed below.
Land development and land sales cost recovery:
The government undertakes most land development and infrastructure works; cost
recovery is obtained through the sales of (long term) land use (rights). In principle,
land sales through the responsible government agency aim at recovering mainly the
land development costs: investments in infrastructure. Land in the new towns itself
can not be sold. Hence, official land prices are relatively low. Current average
prices (mid 2001) per land use category are: (i) residential land: LE 220 per m2;
industrial: LE 180/m2; and commercial land LE 370/m2. At present almost all land
in 6th of October is sold (including all industrial land), although it has to be
2 - 39
confirmed whether this applies to serviced land only or to all available raw land
within the boundary of the new town. Investors, corporations and private
individuals obtaining land and building permits through the official government
agencies (at low prices) are obliged to start construction within a period of two
years. In practice this does not always happen; a kind of parallel (private)
speculative land market is flourishing. Prices in this market are much higher than
the official prices. Early year 2000 prices reached a maximum level of LE 2000/m2;
now land prices dropped to LE 1000 or less.
Residential development:
During the initial development stages, since 1982, housing, mainly walk-up flats for
‘pioneer settlers’ in the city had been built by the government. This nearly 20 years
old residential quarter is located close to the main industrial zone of the city. Since
then, the government has been constructing most of the type of so-called economic
class dwellings, while in recent years a Moubarak Youth housing program is being
developed, as well as some special purpose smaller housing projects for very low-
income shelterless people, for mentally retarded people, etc.. Today, an estimated
40,700 dwellings are constructed in the city, mainly multi-storied dwellings.
Besides dwellings subsidized by government, private housing corporations, private
commercial developers, and individuals are active in housing construction. The
housing stock today consists of the following type of dwellings:
Table 2.3.10 Type of Dwelling and Housing Stock
Type of dwellings: nr. of units price class (LE)

1 economic class 19,163 less than 20,000
2 Moubarak program 13,591 n.a.
flats: 4,448 50,000 to 100,000
3 medium class flats: 3,108 above 100,000
4 luxurious housing 385
5 villas:
Total: 40,695
Part of the government subsidized housing stock is rented (rents vary between LE
200 to 400 a month depending on location and size of the flats). Another part of
the dwelling stock constructed by government was sold to lower income families
(prices for a 62 m2 flat used to be only LE 10,000 some 5 years ago). Some of
these dwellings are sold in the private market for LE 20,000 and more. In the new
town, one may observe many completed but empty dwellings, besides
semi-finished constructions. According to the local public relations office this
phenomenon is mainly explained by the fact that local infrastructure and services
are not completed and not available at the time. The general observation is that
once all infrastructure services are in place, potential residents will settle there.
2 - 40
Profile of inhabitants City of 6th of October:
The 1996 Census data report that the number of residents in the new town was only
35,000. According to the latest estimates (Town Council publications relations
office), population in 6th of October was approximately 200,000 by mid 2001. If this
figure is correct, the population would have increased at an average annual rate of
47 %. It seems that the large influx of new settlers started after the Gulf war in 1992.
Many would be settlers and investors used to work in Gulf countries. They used their
savings and the opportunities offered by the new town land and facilities already in
place. Some of these Gulf workers are not permanent residents, yet; but they have
already built a house or acquired a dwelling here, and they come during their
vacation periods. However, the big attraction factor for most new settlers is the fact
that a large number of new local jobs (100,000) have been (and are still being)
created, mainly in the manufacturing and related sectors. The profile of recent new
settlers is: relatively young families, small family size (2 to 3), both man and wife are
employed, they have a good educational background (many have obtained a technical
training). Average monthly salaries are in the order of LE 1,000. Average household
income is in the range of LE 1,500-2,000 per month (2 jobs per household).
2.3.5 Gross Regional Product (GRDP) of the Greater Cairo Region

There are no official regional product statistics available in Egypt. In the absence of
such a database, the classic method to estimate the product of an area such as Greater
Cairo Region consists of:
i) calculating shares of employment in various economic activity sectors, using

the latest census data; and
ii) estimating the relevant regional product based on assumptions with respect to
likely differences in regional and national productivity.
Two scenarios, A and B, are used to calculate the GRDP for the Greater Cairo
Region. Scenario A takes the assumption that productivity per employee, in each
economic activity sector, is the same irrespective of whether the production is carried
out within the GCR or elsewhere in the rest of the country. Scenario B takes the
assumption that, for certain economic activities, productivity per employee is higher
than in the rest of Egypt. These two scenarios are outlined below. Table 2.3.11
summarizes the results of these two scenarios. Table 2.3.12 presents more detailed
figures for the country and for scenario B, which is considered to be more realistic.
Employment data, by main economic activity sectors, for Egypt and Greater Cairo
are from the latest 1996 census. GDP data of Egypt (at factor costs, in current prices)
are from the same year 1996. The employment and GDP data are not published
according to exactly the same activity sectors (for instance: the sub-sector housing &
real estate services is available only in the national accounts, not in employment
statistics). However, by and large, corresponding sectors of the GRDP for Cairo
could be established for the year 1996.
2 - 41
Scenario A
This scenario assumes that all economic activity sectors in the GCR have the same
productivity per employee as for Egypt as a whole. Total employment in Egypt was
15.77 mln and total GDP (in 1996/97) was 239.5 bln LE. Therefore, average GDP
per employed person was 15,189 LE for the country as a whole. GDP per capita was
4,040 LE.
For the GCR, the total number of employed persons was 3.7 mln. Using the same
productivity per employed person, by economic activity sector, the average
productivity per employed person was estimated to be 16,950 LE (or almost 12%
higher than the rest of the country). The difference between the average productivity
per employee for Egypt and for the GCR is due to the higher proportion of
employees in the production services (transport, finance, hotels and restaurants etc)
in the capital. Therefore, due to the different employment structure in Greater Cairo,
the share of Greater Cairo’s GRDP as a proportion of total GDP is slightly larger
(27 %) than its share of employment (23 %).
Scenario B
This scenario introduces a more realistic approach in estimating the GRDP of

Greater Cairo by assuming that productivity per employed person in four economic
sectors in Cairo is 25 % higher than in the rest of Egypt. These sectors are:
construction, manufacturing, transport, and trade-storage-telecom. Although detailed
data are not available to prove this, the assumption of a 25 % higher productivity is
not an arbitrary one; perhaps, it is even a conservative guesstimate. Primate cities in
several developing countries generate a disproportionately larger share of GDP
compared with their population or share of national employment and Cairo will be no
exception. The selection of the indicated four sectors is based on field observations,
and on a number of secondary statistics all pointing to a higher capital intensity of
these type of activities established in the Greater Cairo Region. On this basis, the
average productivity per employed person, in the GCR, was estimated to be 20,235
LE (or 33% higher than the rest of the country). From this, Cairo’s GRDP of 1996 is
estimated to be LE 75 billion or 31 % of Egypt’s GRDP. Consequently, the average
GRDP per capita in Greater Cairo is estimated to be 5,685 LE or almost 41 % higher
than the average GDP per capita of Egypt.
2 - 42
Table 2.3.11 Gross Regional Product of Greater Cairo Region (1996)

assumptions: scenario-A & -B Egypt (total) Greater Cairo Share Cairo
Region Region
(A) employment total, (in 000’s): 15,768 3,697 23 %
GDP ¥ GRDP, (in LE million): 239,500 63,844 27 %
aver. productivity /employee (in 15,189 16,950 112 % of Egypt
LE): 4,040 4,740 117 % of Egypt
aver. GDP per capita (in LE.):
(B) aver. productivity /employee (in LE): 20,235 133 %
GRDP, in LE million: 74,760 31 %
aver. GDP per capita (in LE): 5,685 141 % of Egypt
Source: JICA study team calculations
Estimated Greater Cairo Regional Product in 2001:
The projected GRDP of Greater Cairo for the year ending December 2001 is
estimated based on the latest available published national GDP data for Egypt, and
on the same above calculated share of Cairo GDRP in 1996. Official preliminary
GDP estimates of Egypt for year 1999-2000 (year ending in June 2000) amounted to
LE 335 billion (GDP at factor costs, in current prices). By December 2001, Egypt’s
GDP is estimated to be approximately LE 365 billion. Hence, the share of Greater
Cairo (population 14.4 million, see also section 3.8) is then assumed to amount to LE
113 billion or USD 25.1 billion (USD 1,780 per capita, calculated at the prevailing
exchange rate of USD=4.50 LE in Feb 2002).
Relationship between GDP per capita and household income:
For future planning forecasting purposes, the relationship between GDP per capita
and household income was tested. This relationship was tested for two countries,
Japan and Thailand. A plot of these two variables, for both countries is shown below
in Figures 2.3.2 and 2.3.3.
8000000
7000000
6000000
Yen '000s
5000000 GDP per cap

4000000
3000000 Annual inc
2000000
1000000
0
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
Year
Figure 2.3.2 GDP per capita and Household Income, Japan
2 - 43
14000
12000
10000 Monthly GDP per cap
8000
Baht
6000 Monthly household

4000 income
2000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Figure 2.3.3 GDP per capita and Household Income, Thailand

It is clear that there is a significant relationship between these two variables and
therefore estimates of future household income can be correlated with that of future
GDP estimates.
2 - 44
Table 2.3.12 Detailed GRDP, Egypt and Cairo, 1996
Item Egypt
Urba GCR
Total Rural
n
25,28
Population total (in 000's) 59,272 6 33,986 13,151 22%
urban population: 25,286 10,467 41%
rural population: 33,986 2,760 8%
Employment by sector (in 000's)
1 agriculture, incl.livestock, fishing 4,881 558 4,323 197 4%
2 mining & quarrying 64 43 21 17 27%
3 manufacturing (incl.large, medium, small) 2,177 1,383 794 817 38%
4 petroleum products 0 n.a
5 electricity, gas, water 159 96 64 47 30%
6 Construction 1,283 760 523 461 36%
sub-total: commodity sector (1-6) 8,564 2,840 5,724 1,539 18%
7 transport, storage, & telecom 916 575 342 313 34%
8 trade, finance & insurance 2,142 1,479 663 814 38%
9 hotels & restaurants 206 156 50 88 43%
sub-total: production services (7-9) 3,264 2,210 1,054 1,215 37%
10 social insurance & health 374 242 132 106 28%
11 Education 1,511 835 676 296 20%
12 social & personel services 349 213 135 142 41%
13 govern.& public administr, defence 1,533 878 655 347 23%
14 housing & real estate, 0 n.a n.a 0
15 activities not adequately described 174 95 79 49 28%
sub-total: social services sector (10-15): 3,940 2,263 1,677 940 24%
Total employment: 15,768 7,313 8,455 3,697 23%
sub-total employ males: 13,667 3,108 23%
sub-total employ females: 2,101 589 28%
Domestic Product (1996/97)
(At factor costs in current prices, L.E.million)
1 agriculture, incl.livestock, fishing 42,325 1,708 4%
2,3 manufacturing, incl.mining 43,383 20,181 47%
4 petrol and gas production 15,854 n.a
5 electricity, utilites(gas, water) 5,135 1,527 30%
6 Construction 12,750 5,728 45%
sub-total: commodity sector (1-5) 119,447 29,143 24%
7 transport, storage, & telecom 22,695 9,688 43%
8 trade, finance & insurance 51,027 24,241 48%
9 hotels & restaurants 3,830 1,639 43%
sub-total: production services (6-8) 77,552 35,569 46%
10 social insurance & health 165 47 28%
11,1
2 education, social & personel services 19,061 4,489 24%
13 govern.& public administr, defence 18,900 4,278 23%
14 housing & real estate, 4,375 1,234 28%
15 activities not adequately described 0 n.a
sub-total: social services sector: 42,501 10,048 24%
Total GDP: (1-15) 239,500 74,760 31%
per capita GDP, in L.E 4,041 5,685 141%
per capita GDP, in USD (current rate) 1,192 1,677 141%
2 - 45
Table 2.3.12 (continued) Detailed GRDP, Egypt and Cairo, 1996

Item Egypt
GCR
Total Urban Rural
Productivity/employed person (1996/97)

(At factor costs in current prices, L.E.million)
1 agriculture, incl.livestock, fishing 8,672 8,672 100%
2,3 manufacturing, incl.mining 19,358 24,197 125%
4 petrol and gas production 0 0
5 electricity, utilites(gas, water) 32,220 32,220 100%
6 Construction 9,939 12,424 125%
sub-total: commodity sector (1-5) 13,947
7 transport, storage, & telecom 24,763 30,954 125%
8 trade, finance & insurance 23,824 29,780 125%
9 hotels & restaurants 18,606 18,606 100%
sub-total: production services (6-8) 23,758
10 social insurance & health 442 442 100%
11,1
2 education, social & personel services 10,250 10,250 100%
13 govern.& public administr, defence 12,329 12,329 100%
14,1
5 housing & real estate, & other activities 25,176 25,176 100%
sub-total: social services sector: 10,787
Average GDP per employ.person: (1-15) 15,189 20,235 133%
(not included: petrol.&gas production)
Source: CAPMAS for population, employment, GDP Egypt National Accounts, Ministry of Economy, JICA study team
estimates. N.B. some differences due to rounding
2.3.6 Vehicle Ownership

This section describes recent trends and patterns related to vehicle ownership in
Egypt as well as the Greater Cairo Region. Comparisons are also provided to
observed vehicle ownership rates in other Middle East and North African (MENA)
nations
(1) National Trends
Vehicle ownership in Egypt grew from 1.29 million vehicles in year 1987 to an
estimated 2.3 million cars, buses and trucks in year 2000. During that period, car
ownership has dominated, averaging some three-quarters of car, bus and truck
registrations. Trucks account for almost all remaining registrations, with buses only
contributing some two percent toward the registered fleet. Over the same period, unit
ownership of cars, buses and trucks increased from 26.4 vehicles per 1,000 persons
to 36.4 vehicles per 1,000 persons (Figure 2.3.4). Motorcycle ownership during year
2000 was an estimated 520,000 units, or 8.2 motorcycles per 1,000 persons.
The rate of growth in registered cars, buses and trucks averaged 4.6 percent per
annum between 1987 and 1999. Stratified, ownership of cars, buses and trucks grew
by 4.5, 4.1 and 5.0 percent per annum, respectively. Vehicle ownership therefore
grew considerably faster than unit national income and population (Figure 2.3.5).
2 - 46
2,000,000 40.0
Cars
Data sources: The World Bank, International Road Federation
Buses
1,800,000 and The Statistical Yearbooks between 1992 and 1999,
Trucks
Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt, annual
Motorcycles
publications. Year 2000 data are preliminary. Miscellanous
vehicles are those in public service, with diplomatic plates and
Miscellaneous
1,600,000 Ownership (Right Scale) 34.0
Cars, Buses and Trucks per 1,000 Persons

temporary plates.
Number of Registered Vehicles
1,400,000
1,200,000 28.0
1,000,000
800,000 22.0
600,000
400,000 16.0
200,000
0 10.0
1987 1988 1989 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Year
Figure 2.3.4 Recent Vehicle Ownership Trends in Egypt
1.9
1.8
Population
Constant GNP per Capita
1.7
Four-plus Wheeled Vehicles
Ratio to Year 1987 Condition
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
Data sources: The World Bank, International Road Federation and The Statistical
1.0 Yearbooks between 1992 and 1999, Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt,
annual publications. Year 2000 data are preliminary.
0.9
1987 1988 1989 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Year
Figure 2.3.5 Egyptian Vehicle and Socio-Economic Indexes: 1987-2000
(2) Regional Patterns
Egyptian nation-wide characteristics include an estimated year 1999 population of

62.5 million persons, a year 1998 GDP per capita of 1,162 constant year 1995 US
dollars, and a year 1999 ownership of 2.35 million vehicles (cars, buses, trucks,
2 - 47
miscellaneous vehicles7) as well as 485,300 motorcycles. The Greater Cairo Region,

as the nations capital, holds a dominant role in terms of national share. Population,
which during 1999 totaled some 15.88 million persons, represents about one-fourth
of the Egyptian total.
Vehicle ownership has historically been concentrated in Greater Cairo, particularly in

case of passenger cars. Year 1999 data confirm that almost 60 percent of cars, about
one-half of buses and miscellaneous vehicles, as well as some one-third of trucks and
motorcycles registered in Egypt are based in Greater Cairo. Thus, vehicle ownership
in Greater Cairo considerably exceeds the national norm; in case of cars, 59.0
vehicles per 1,000 persons compared to the Egyptian country-wide total of 25.7
vehicles per 1,000 persons (Figure 2.3.6).
100
90 Data source: The Statistical Yearbook 1993 - 1999 , Government of the

Arab Republic of Egypt, June, 2000. Greater Cairo defined as consisting of
Cairo, Giza and Qalyoubia Governorates.
80
70 25.7 vehicles per 0.8 vehicles per 8.5 vehicles per 7.8 vehicles per
Percent of National Total
1,000 persons 1,000 persons 1,000 persons 1,000 persons
60
50
40
30
59.0 vehicles per 1.5 vehicles per 10.9 vehicles per 11.7 vehicles per
20 1,000 persons 1,000 persons 1,000 persons 1,000 persons
10
Greater Cairo Region Egypt
0
Population Cars Buses Trucks Motorcycles
Item
Figure 2.3.6 Year 1999 Relative Vehicle Ownership and Population

Composition, Greater Cairo and Egypt
The Cairo concentration in vehicle ownership becomes even more obvious when
registration data are reviewed at the Governorate level of detail. Cairo Governorate
dominates, accounting for some 831,000 four-plus wheeled vehicles (cars, buses,
trucks, miscellaneous), or 35 percent of the national total of 2.35 million vehicles.
The equivalent unit ownership rate is 116.6 vehicles per 1,000 persons. The Cairo
Governorate ownership total is more than twice that of the next two highest
Governorates, Alexandria and Giza (Figure 2.3.7). Unit Governorate vehicle
ownership declines roughly in proportion to absolute ownership.
7
Includes vehicles in public sector service, diplomatic license plates and temporary license plates.
8
Includes Cairo, Giza and Qalyobeyya Governorates.
2 - 48
900,000
Data sources: The Statistical Yearbooks between 1992 and 1999,

800,000 Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt, annual publications.
116.6 Vehicles per Miscellaneous vehicles include public sector service, temporary license
1,000 Persons plates and diplomatic license plates.
700,000
Number of Registered Vehicles
600,000 101.6 Vehicles per

1,000 Persons
500,000
59.3 Vehicles per Trucks
1,000 Persons
400,000 Buses
Passenger Cars
300,000 20.9 Vehicles per Miscellaneous
1,000 Persons
200,000 17.5 Vehicles per
1,000 Persons
100,000
0 Asyout
Fayoum
Menoufia
Red Sea
Beni Suef
Aswan
Suez
Luxor
Giza
Qalubia
Behera
Qena
Cairo
Suhag
Menia
Port Said
Matrouh
Gharbia
Damietta
South Sinai
Alexandria
Sharkia
Dakahlia
Ismailia
North Sinai
Kafr El Sheikh
El Wadi El Gidid
Governorate
Figure 2.3.7 Year 1999 Registered Vehicles by Governorate

A similar picture emerges in terms of motorcycle registrations. Cairo Governorate,
with some 103,900 registered motorcycles, accounts for roughly 21 percent of the
national total of 485,300 motorcycles. However, unit ownership differs from absolute
ownership in that smaller Governorates, having less total motorcycles, exhibit higher
unit ownership rates than Cairo Governorate. The highest 1999 unit rate is noted for
Damietta Governorate: 18.6 motorcycles per 1,000 persons (Figure 2.3.8).
150,000 20.0
Data source: The Statistical Yearbooks between 1992 and 1999,
135,000 Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt, annual publications. 18.0
120,000 16.0
Number of Registered Motorcycles
Motorcycles per 1,000 Persons

105,000 14.0
Motorcycles (Left Scale)
90,000 12.0
Ownership (Right Scale)
75,000 10.0
60,000 8.0
45,000 6.0
30,000 4.0
15,000 2.0
0 0.0
Beni Suef
El Wadi El Gidid
Menoufia
Fayoum
Ismailia
Kafr El Sheikh
Port Said
Asyout
South Sinai
Red Sea
North Sinai
Luxor
Damietta
Alexandria
Menia
Cairo
Aswan
Sharkia
Behera
Qena
Suez
Suhag
Matrouh
Dakahlia
Giza
Qalubia
Gharbia
Governorate
Figure 2.3.8 Year 1999 Registered Motorcycles by Governorate
2 - 49
Almost three-fourths of Egyptian vehicles are registered in Cairo, Giza, Qalyobeyya

and Alexandria Governorates, as well as some two-thirds of total vehicles (Table
2.3.13).
Table 2.3.13 Comparison of Year 1999 Regional Vehicle Ownership

Number of Vehicles
Governorate Cars Buses Trucks Misc. Total M.cycles
Cairo 650,051 17,425 105,314 59,052 831,842 103,867
Giza 239,023 4,246 45,562 10,141 298,972 44,203
Qalyobeyya 34,320 2,247 20,360 3,945 60,872 34,500
Subtotal 923,394 23,918 171,236 73,138 1,191,686 182,570
Alexandria 263,923 9,604 66,394 17,319 357,240 17,301
Rest of Egypt 417,685 13,902 292,266 73,132 796,985 285,428
Total 1,605,002 47,424 529,896 163,589 2,345,911 485,299
Source: The Statistical Yearbook of 1993-1999, op. cit.
As a result, unit ownership in the rest of Egypt is quite low, averaging 9.6 cars per
1,000 persons, 18.4 total vehicles per 1,000 persons, and 6.6 motorcycles per 1,000
persons (Table 2.3.14).
Table 2.3.14 Comparison of Year 1999 Regional Unit Vehicle Ownership

Vehicles per 1,000 Persons
Governorate Cars Buses Trucks Misc. Total M.cycles
Cairo 91.1 2.4 14.8 8.3 116.6 14.6
Giza 47.4 0.8 9.0 2.0 59.3 8.8
Qalyobeyya 9.9 0.6 5.8 1.1 17.5 9.9
Subtotal 59.0 1.5 10.9 4.7 76.1 11.7
Alexandria 75.0 2.7 18.9 4.9 101.6 4.9
Rest of Egypt 9.6 0.3 6.7 1.7 18.4 6.6
Total 25.7 0.8 8.5 2.6 37.5 7.8
Previous analyses are based on vehicle registration information maintained by the

various Ministries of the Interior. It is of interest to briefly refer to findings of
CREATS surveys, which provide additional insight as to the availability of private
transport in households of varying incomes.
Differences among household income groupings are apparent in terms of vehicle

ownership, as confirmed by the Household Interview Survey. Roughly 95 percent of
study area households in the lowest HIS income grouping (less than 300 LE per
month) indicate not owning any vehicle, a statistic which only declines slightly for
the 300-500 LE per month grouping. For incomes above 1,000 LE, more than 60
percent of households indicated owning one car, and a further 10-25 percent,
depending on income grouping, indicated owning multiple cars and/or motorcycles.
Ownership of one motorcycle is, in comparison, minor with highest incidence being
some 10 percent of households within the 1,001-2,000 LE grouping (Figure 2.3.9).
2 - 50
100
Source: JICA Study Team. One Motorcycle
Other Vehicle 90
Multi Car/Motorcycle
One Car 80
No Vehicle
70
Percent of Households
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
> 2,000
300 - 500 501 - 1,000 1,001-2,000
< 300
Household Income Grouping (LE per Month per Household)
Figure 2.3.9 Vehicle Ownership by Household Income Grouping

CREATS Study Area
The impacts of implied vehicle availability on trip making is also confirmed by the
Revealed Preferences Survey, during which interviews were conducted with users of
various modes regarding the current mode used as well as potential alternative modes
which could be used to complete the current journey. One question for public
transport users was whether or not a car is available to complete the journey. Results
mirror the ownership pattern in that, for household incomes above 1,000 LE, about
50 percent of respondents replied “never”. For the lowest income grouping, the
corresponding statistic is more than 90 percent (Figure 2.3.10).
100.0
Source: JICA Study Team.
90.0
> 1,000 80.0

Is Car Available for this Trip (Percent
501-1,000 LE
70.0
300-500 LE
< 300 LE 60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Seldom Never
Often Sometimes
Always
Degree of Availability
Figure 2.3.10 Vehicle Availability by Income Grouping

CREATS Study Area
2 - 51
(3) Fleet Composition
The capacity profile of trucks and buses was examined based on data recently
compiled by CAPMAS9. These data stratify capacity based on various types of
ownership. In case of buses, several considerations emerge (Figure 2.3.11):
• Of 18,400 buses identified within Greater Cairo, some 9,300 are shown as being
in private commercial service, 4,900 in public sector service, 1,800 used for
tourism purposes, 1,500 as buses for hire and almost 1,000 being school buses.
• Size distributions differ according to vehicle use. For example, almost two-thirds
of buses in public sector service are noted as being large vehicles, whereas almost
40 percent of buses classed as being in private commercial service are shown as
having a passenger capacity of 11-19 persons.
• Composite bus data for Greater Cairo mirrors nationwide data in that some 6.5
percent of buses are shown as having a capacity of less than 10 persons, 25.7
percent between 11 and 19 persons, 14.6 percent between 20 and 29 persons, 3.5
percent between 30 and 39 persons, 26.1 between 40 and 40 persons, as well as
23.6 percent as 50 or more persons.
70
Data source: Transport Force in Greater Cairo Region 1998 , op. cit.
60
Public Commercial GCR (4,908 Units)
Private Commercial GCR (9,252 Units)
Tourism Bus GCR (1,802 Units)
50 School Bus GCR (988 Units)
Percent of Category Tota
Bus for Hire GCR (1,469 Units)

Total Greater Cairo Region (18,419 Units)
40 Total Egypt (40,108 Units)
30
20
10
0
< 10 11-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50 +
Vehicle Capacity Range (Number of Persons)
Figure 2.3.11 Distribution of Buses by Capacity: Greater Cairo Region and

Egypt
The fleet profile for trucks indicates that (Figure 2.3.12):
• Of 98,400 trucks identified within Greater Cairo, some 88,500 are shown as being
in private commercial use and 9,900 in public sector service.
9
Transport Force in Greater Cairo 1998, by Central Authority of Public Mobilization and Statistics, Public
Mobilization Sector, November 2000 (translated).
2 - 52
• Size distributions differ according to vehicle use. Some 57 percent of trucks in

public sector service are noted as having capacities of less than three tons, and a
further one-third of vehicles as having a capacity of between five and 9.9 tons. In
case of trucks classed as being in private commercial service, about 80 percent are
shown as having a capacity of less than three tons.
• Composite truck data for Greater Cairo mirrors nationwide data in that 76.7
percent of trucks are shown as having a capacity of less than three tons, 4.0
percent between three and 4.9 tons, 16.9 percent between five and 9.9 tons, 2.1
percent between 10 and 14.9 tons, as well as 0.4 percent as 15 or more tons.
90
Data source: Transport Force in Greater Cairo Region 1998 , op. cit.
80
70
60 Public Sector GCR (9,945 Units)

Percent of Category Tota
Commercial GCR (88,498 Units)
50 Total Greater Cairo Region (98,443 Units)

Total Egypt (385,529 Units)
40
30
20
10
0
<3 3-4.9 5-9.9 10-14.9 15-19.9 20+
Vehicle Capacity Range (Tons)
Figure 2.3.12 Distribution of Trucks by Capacity: Greater Cairo Region and

Egypt
(4) Mena Comparison
Unit vehicle ownership can best be compared among countries if quantified vis-à-vis
economic well-being, principally GNP per capita in constant terms. Thus, as an
initial step, a review of MENA economic performance is in order.
1) Economic Performance
Highest year 199810 unit national incomes (GNP per capita expressed in constant
year 1995 US dollars) are noted for Kuwait, the UAE, Israel and Qatar, nations all
classified as having achieved high income11 status. Kuwait, with a year 1996 GDP
10
Year 1998 constant unit national income was not, at time of writing, available for Kuwait, Oman and Qatar.
Most recent available data (1995 or 1996) are used instead.
11
Income levels are, according to World Bank criteria, expressed in four categories based on year 1997 GNP
per capita (Atlas Method): low: $785 or less; lower middle: $786-$3,125; upper middle: $3,126-$9,655;
and high: more than $9,655.
2 - 53
per capita of 21,439 constant 1995 US dollars, appears to have achieved highest
MENA unit national income. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Oman comprise MENA
nations within the middle (high) income category, while Egypt, with a year 1998
GDP per capita of 1,162 constant 1995 US dollars (and 1,290 current US dollars), is
categorized as a middle (low) income nation. The most modest unit national incomes
(low) are noted for Yemen and Sudan. For highest income nations, purchasing power
parity (PPP) per capita typically approximates GNP per capita, thus reflecting higher
living costs. In case of the UAE, for example, GNP per capita totals some $17,800,
while PPP per capita reaches $18,900. For other income groupings, PPP per capita
exceeds GNP per capita. In case of Egypt, for example, GNP per capita totals some
$1,200, while PPP per capita is more than 2.5 times higher, reaching $3,200 (Figure
2.3.13).
Economic performance was also examined based on changes in GNP per capita
(expressed in constant US dollars) between years 1987 and 1998, as well as between
years 1993 and 1998. The latter focuses more on recent economic achievements. A
wide variety of growth patterns are apparent, including extended contractions in
several nations. Lebanon, with growth rates in unit national income for both time
periods approximating ten percent per annum, appears to have achieved highest
MENA growth, largely as a result of post-war rehabilitation. Egypt emerges as one
of the MENA leaders with an average annual growth rate of 2.6 percent over the
1987-1998 period, and 4.4 percent over the 1993-1998 period. In fact, over the
1993-1998 period, only Lebanon and the Sudan appear to have achieved higher
growth; in the case of Sudan the small absolute size of the Sudanese economy should
concurrently be noted (Figure 2.3.14).
24,000
Data source: The World Bank.
22,000
Income groupings per World Bank criteria.
Oman and Qatar - 1995 data; Kuwait - 1996 data.
20,000
18,000 GNP (Gross National Product) per Capita (1995 Constant US$)
PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) per Capita (PPP International $)
16,000 GNP (Gross National Product) per Capita (Current US$)
Units per Annum
14,000
12,000
Low Middle (Lower) Middle (Upper) High
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Yemen
Algeria
Lebanon
Morocco
Saudi Arabia
Jordan
Oman
Bahrain
UAE
Kuwait
Israel
Sudan
Egypt
Tunisia
Syria
Iran
Qatar
Nation and Income Grouping
Figure 2.3.13 Year 1998 Unit National Income

Representative Middle East and North African Nations
2 - 54
Percent Change per Annum in GNP per Capita (Constant 1995 US$) 14.0
Data source: The World Bank.

12.0 Income groupings per World Bank criteria.
Oman and Qatar through 1995; Kuwait through 1996.
10.0 From 1987 to 1998

From 1993 to 1998
8.0
6.0
Low Middle (Lower) Middle (Upper) High
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
Lebanon
Saudi Arabia
Morocco
Egypt
Kuwait
Algeria
Sudan
Jordan
Bahrain
Syria
Tunisia
Yemen
Iran
Oman
Israel
Qatar
UAE
Nation and Income Grouping
Figure 2.3.14 Recent trends in Unit National Incomes

2) Vehicle Ownership
Vehicle ownership is considered an excellent surrogate measure for road traffic

growth; that is, likely levels of future traffic activity may be estimated based on
forecast rates of growth in four-plus wheeled vehicle (cars, buses, trucks)
registrations. Within a MENA context, unit ownership, that is, registered four-plus
wheeled vehicles per 1,000 persons, is highest in more affluent countries. In Israel,
for example, a total of 1.6 million vehicles were registered in 1998 consisting of 1.3
million cars, 282,000 trucks and some 15,000 buses. This translates to a unit
ownership of 267.6 vehicles per 1,000 persons.
Vehicle ownership in MENA varies from amongst the lowest to near the highest in
the world. This pattern is inexorably linked to national economic well-being; that is,
GNP per capita. A review of data available12 over the past ten years reveals several
clear trends. At lower income ranges, say GNP per capita of less than $3,000 (in
constant 1995 terms), unit vehicle ownership increases very rapidly with, and at an
elasticity of considerably greater than, the rate of growth of unit national income.
Vehicle ownership continues to increase but at a more moderate rate until GNP per
capita reaches about $11,000. Above that total, the ownership rate of growth slows
considerable mirroring the GNP per capita growth rate (Figure 2.3.15).
12
To include GNP per capita in constant 1995 US dollars, as well as modal vehicle registration data.
2 - 55
Four-plus Wheeled Vehicles per 1,000 Persons 1,000
100
Algeria Morocco Sudan

Tunisia Afghanistan Bahrain
Egypt Iran Iraq
Israel Jordan Kuwait
10 Lebanon Oman Qatar
Saudi Arabia Syria UAE
Yemen AR
Data taken from available years between 1987 and 1999.

Princial data sources: International Road Federation and The World Bank.
1
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000
GNP per Capita (Constant 1995 US$)
Figure 2.3.15 Overview of Vehicle Ownership Patterns

This trend, as well as patterns discussed in the previous section, confirms that
Egyptian vehicle ownership patterns are very much in line with MENA expectations;
that is, for the given level of unit national income, vehicle ownership can be expected
to increase at a rate considerably above that of unit national income.
2.3.7 Socio-economic Framework in 2001
(1) Short Term Population Projection
Population is the most important variable concerning the projection of all

socio-economic indices. The general approach for projecting the short term
population total and population distribution in the Study Area is based on the
following considerations:
(1) Overall Population Growth Trends of the Study Area:
In the previous sections, an analysis of long term population growth trends revealed a
declining growth in the Study Area from a high level of approximately 3 % per year
to an average of 2.1 % per year during the inter-census period 1986-1996. Recent
demographic studies have indicated that future population growth of the Cairo
Region will be more in line with the steadily declining national growth trends.
According to official projections for Egypt, an average annual growth of 1.4 % is
expected until year 2022; intermediate average annual growth rates are: 1.8 % for the
period 1996-2001, 1.5 % for 2001-2011, 1.2 % for the period 2011-2022 (ref.: World
Bank, Development Indicators 2000).
2 - 56
(2) Growth Trends of Specific Areas:
The same analysis revealed during the period 1986-1996 differentiated growth trends
in each of the three main Governorates in the Study Area: an average annual growth
of 1.5 % in Cairo Governorate, 2.5 % in Giza, and 3.0 % in Qalyobeyya. Moreover,
as explained in section 2.3.4 (Tables 2.3.8 and 2.3.9) population growth in the new
towns has taken off very substantially during the last five years.
The above mentioned overall population trends of larger areas, and the growth trends
1986-1996 of each specific zone form the basis of estimating the population in each
area for the year 2001. Further detailed mechanism of population projection
proceeded as follows:
(a) Cairo Governorate: it is assumed that the earlier observed trend of decreasing
population (1986-1996) in 20 qisms of the central parts of Cairo Governorate will
continue for the recent five year period 1996-2001 (practically: the negative annual
growth rate of each specific zone is maintained for the projected population 2001).
A few qisms are treated as special cases: (i) the 15th of May is assumed to have
developed less rapidly (5 % per year) than in the recent past (10 % per year); (ii) the
recent high growth rate of Madinat City (5.6 % per annum) is slowing a bit to 4 % ;
(iii) and the new rapidly developed areas like Al-Salam, and Al-Marg also
experience a slower growth (5 % per year instead of 12.6 % and 7.7 % respectively).
For the remaining qisms the observed positive growth trends during 1986-1996 are,
in principle, maintained; exceptions are those zones with already very high gross
population densities (above 4 persons per km2); in the latter cases projected growth
rates are set approximately 50 % lower than the earlier trend.
For Giza a similar procedure as in Cairo Governorate is followed. In the period

1996-2001 three qisms with high population density experienced a negative annual
growth or stagnation: Al-Agooza, Al-Doqqy, Al-Giza, and in line with a general
lower growth trend for Greater Cairo, the remaining qisms and markaz are assumed
to grow a bit slower than in the previous decade. For Qalyobeyya all of the qisms and
markaz are assumed to have a slower positive growth than in the previous decade.
The result of the population projections at Sector level is shown at the end of this
sub-section in Table2. 3.15.
(2) Short Term Estimation: 2001 of Employment and Students
The estimation of employment and students were made based on the expanded
results of the HIS, finally. Numbers of employments at working places and
students at school locations and vehicle accessibility by sector are shown in Table
2.3.15 as well as the population estimates. Employment categories are as the HIS.
Figure 2.3.16 to 2.3.18 illustrate population density, employment density at working

place and household income distribution in 2001 in the Study area, respectively.
2 - 57
Table 2.3.15 Population, Employment and Students by Sector

-2001-
Population No. of HH HH size Montly Income Employment Students Vehicle
Sector
(LE per Month) Primary Secondary Tertiary Non-Univ. Univ. Availiavility (%)
1 6th of October City 200,018 53,055 3.77 874 3,731 81,273 47,103 52,806 35,598 40.4
2 Imbaba Markaz 1,294,733 300,542 4.31 449 26,576 41,594 85,699 359,286 0 18.6
3 Doqy 1,202,073 298,954 4.02 855 10,031 126,301 260,658 349,082 8,870 38.5
4 Giza 1,245,232 311,274 4.00 716 16,030 68,368 193,864 382,413 209,440 33.1
5 South Giza 442,993 98,912 4.48 550 9,111 19,256 36,915 150,259 0 25.6
6 Helwan 739,425 171,873 4.30 633 3,755 125,338 73,131 228,848 84,870 29.9
7 Maadi 868,801 213,462 4.07 807 8,372 58,536 93,690 211,938 9,531 35.6
8 Khaleefa 733,216 199,822 3.67 587 3,357 52,320 136,785 222,448 35,374 26.4
9 CBD 400,831 117,430 3.41 727 6,618 205,607 416,478 158,289 22,186 32.4
10 Shobra 1,072,188 272,018 3.94 584 2,092 48,356 127,884 269,859 9,034 26.6
11 Masr El Gedeeda 861,861 223,560 3.86 964 8,914 121,203 285,923 296,778 281,619 43.8
12 Nasr City 723,837 190,340 3.80 1,309 10,424 123,830 242,134 227,774 79,592 53.8
13 Ain Shams 991,625 235,628 4.21 599 2,764 31,676 89,173 264,992 10,908 27.5
14 Salam City 776,582 188,855 4.11 569 2,396 30,948 66,604 189,270 0 26.4
15 Shobra El-Kheima 939,285 213,042 4.41 480 7,580 61,034 76,063 283,133 7,579 19.5
16 Qalyob 760,435 163,675 4.65 450 16,918 39,139 75,787 222,647 0 19.4
17 Qanater 942,767 216,429 4.36 417 12,369 51,206 86,938 281,780 1,279 17.5
18 10th of Ramadan City 196,085 48,777 4.02 560 3,726 96,338 55,062 58,471 6,893 25.6
Total 14,391,987 3,517,650 4.09 672 154,762 1,382,324 2,449,890 4,210,071 802,774 29.9
Source: CAPMAS, JICA study team calculations. Sectors are shown in Figure 2.3.1.
With reference to the above table, the following activities are included under
employment:
Economic activity Employment

classification
agriculture/hunting, mining/quarrying Primary
manufacturing, electricity/gas/water, construction Secondary
restaurant/hotels/tourism, transport/storage/communication, Tertiary

finance/real estate, services, wholesale/repair, education,
health/social work
These are potential basic variables to explain trip generation and attraction in the
course of the transport demand model building.
2 - 58

Figure 2.3.16 Population Density Map – Year 2001 –

Figure 2.3.17 Working Place Employment Density Map – Year 2001 –
2 - 59
Figure 2.3.18 Income Distribution Map – Year 2001 –
2 - 60
2.4 FUTURE SOCIO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
2.4.1 Approach used

In order to predict transport patterns for future years within the study forecast period
(yrs 2007, 2012, 2022), it is necessary to estimate key growth factors i.e. economic
and population growth factors. On the basis of these estimates it is possible to further
estimate the variables (population, employment, students, household income) for
each traffic zone for the traffic model. Given the length of the forecast period, twenty
years, it must be stated that there are some uncertainties regarding precise estimates.
However, past growth trends form an important indication of the way that the
economy and the population will develop. A good understanding of past economic
activity including growth rates and the way that certain activities such as services are
concentrated is an important guide for future developments. Similarly, an analysis of
past population growth forms an important foundation for forecasting future
population levels.
In addition to this, there are also some possibilities regarding the geographical
distribution of the future population. This particularly concerns the question of the
implementation of the new communities.
For these reasons, a scenario approach is taken to ensure that all possibilities are
taken into account. Two types of scenario are developed and outlined in this section.
Firstly, economic growth scenarios are developed and these will have an impact on
future household income and future levels of employment. Secondly, growth
scenarios for the new communities are developed. This will have an impact on the
distribution of the future population within the Study Area.
The same forecasts of population for the entire Study Area are assumed for each
scenario developed.
2.4.2 Economy
(1) National Economic Performance Comparison
As stated in the introduction to this chapter, historic growth trends form the best
guide for a reasonable forecast for the growth of the economy over the next twenty
years. Figure 2.4.1 shows annual GDP growth for the period 1994-2001 for Egypt.
Also shown, as a comparison, are the Middle East and Turkey, Africa and the
Western Hemisphere (Caribbean and South America). Table 2.4.1 shows GDP
growth data for two periods, 1984-93 and 1994-2001.
2 - 61
8
7
6
% GDP growth
5
4
3
2
1
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
All developing countries Africa

Middle East & Turkey Egypt
Source: World Economic Outlook, 2002, International Monetary Fund
Figure 2.4.1 GDP Growth, Egypt and Other Developing Regions,

1994-2001
Table 2.4.1 Average GDP Growth, Egypt and Other Developing Regions,
1983-2001
Country/ Area 1984-93 1994-2001
All developing countries 5.1% 5.3%
Egypt 3.9% 4.9%
Middle East & Turkey 3.4% 3.5%
Developing Asia 7.6% 7.0%
Africa 2.0% 3.3%
Western Hemisphere 2.9% 2.9%
For the developing countries as a whole, the effect of the financial crisis in Asia,
1998-99, can be clearly seen in Figure 2.4.1, followed by some evidence of a
recovery. For the two periods, 1984-93 and 1994-2001, all developing countries are
above 5% for both periods but this is heavily weighted by China, India and other
Asian countries. Egypt has, however, out-performed other developing regions and
averages of 4% and 5% indicate a good overall economic performance.
(2) The National Economy, 1982-2002
Growth trends over the last twenty years have shown a variation in the way that the
national economy has performed. From impressive growth rates during the 1982-86
period (average 7.3%) the following decade saw growth more than halved i.e. 3.1%
for the period 1987-91. This lower growth continued during the early part of the
2 - 62
1990’s, 3.3% for the period 1992-97, with economic growth being particularly
affected by the 1991 Gulf War. (0.2% growth in the year 1992). The government’s
stabilization program resulted in higher average growth rates of 5.1% for the period
1997-2001. There is evidence, however, that this economic growth has been slowing
over the past two years. GDP growth decreased in the year 2001 to 3.3% and this is
caused by several major reasons, as follows:
• It is understood that the privatization program is slowing down
• A general world-wide recession which is only just beginning to improve
• The effects of Sept 11th, particularly on foreign travel and tourism
Growth rates, for the Egyptian economy, for the period 1984-2001 are shown below
in Figure 2.4.2. Averages for five year periods are also shown. These periods
correspond reasonably with the government’s five year plan periods.
9
7.3% average
8
7 5.1% average
6
% GDP growth
5
4
3 3.1% average 3.3% average
2
1
0
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Figure 2.4.2 Annual GDP Growth Rate of National Economy, 1984-2001

The IMF anticipate that this most recent decline in growth will continue in the year
2002 (1.7%) followed by some recovery in the year 2003 (3.5%).
(3) Growth Prospects
Regarding the national economic performance over the last twenty years, it is clear
that there is no consistent growth trend for the country as a whole. There have been
periods where growth has been high (7%), low (just above 3%) and, more recently, a
medium growth rate of around 5%.
As stated previously, the government’s stabilization program has been reasonably

successful with higher GDP growth in the last part of the 1990’s and the beginning of
the twenty-first century. A big question remains as to whether these growth rates can
be sustained. Privatization programs conducted elsewhere in the world, most notably
in Eastern Europe, indicate that there are limitations to the sustainability of high
2 - 63
growth achievements in the long-term. Figure 2.4.3 shows the growth rates of the
major East European countries who are currently preparing for accession to the
European Union.
12
10
8
% GDP growth
6
4
2
0
-21994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
-4
CZECH REPUBLIC ESTONIA HUNGARY POLAND SLOVENIA
Figure 2.4.3 Impact of Privatization, Eastern Europe, 1994-2001

The main thrust of the privatization programs in the countries shown in Figure 2.4.3
took place in the period 1990-95. During the transition from a centrally planned
economy to a market economy, a period of negative growth, prior to 1994, was
experienced before the benefits of privatization and liberalization were seen. These
benefits extended to growth rates as high as 10% (Estonia, 1997) but more recently
this growth, for all the countries, has stabilized at rates closer to 4%. The European
bank for Reconstruction and development (EBRD) has estimated that there will
lower growth in the year 2002 i.e. Hungary, 4%; Czech Republic, 3.5%; Slovenia,
3.2%; and Poland, 2%. Although there are still further privatization measures to be
taken in these countries and, undoubtedly, accession to the European Union will have
significant effect, other effects are now becoming more prominent. In particular, the
greater openness to trade has meant that these countries have been more heavily
affected by the global slow-down than would otherwise have been the case.
Similarly, higher growth has brought other effects such as increased workers wages,
making exports more expensive, and higher unemployment, as privatized firms are
forced to compete in market conditions. In summary, although privatization does
clearly bring benefits, it is difficult to expect high long-term growth because the
transformation of such economies tends to create newer problems, such as higher
unemployment, wage inflation and exposure to world economic problems. For the
example of Egypt, the argument demonstrated above indicates that, although the
economy has achieved good results for the period 1997-2001, this growth cannot be
expected to be sustained over long-periods of time i.e. the study forecast period of
twenty years.
(4) Egypt and the Greater Cairo Region
A further question to consider is whether there is some consistency between national

growth rates and those possible for the Greater Cairo Region? On balance, there is
some consistency between the two and that what is seen in terms of the national
economy is mirrored in the city’s growth. It must be said, however, that there is little
2 - 64
available evidence to be able to calculate regional Gross Domestic Product for the
capital. On the basis of assumptions regarding the greater productive capital for some
individual sectors, it was calculated that the GDP per capita for the capital is about
40% higher than that of the rest of the country. However, population growth rates are
broadly similar (see also sub-section 2.4.3) and employment in the capital has
increased at a slightly lesser rate (see also sub-section 2.4.5). Therefore it is to be
expected that growth rates for the capital and the country will only differ slightly
because agricultural production as a share of total production in the capital will
decrease whilst manufacturing and services will increase. Because of the higher
productive value of some sectors this would marginally increase the growth rate in
the capital. However, because assumptions have already been made regarding the
level of GRDP and the growth of the national economy and there is no available and
accurate data regarding wages in the different sectors, it has been assumed that
percentage changes in national income will have the same effect at the regional level.
It should also be noted that, because the calculations are in real terms, the expected
differential between the country as whole and the capital will not be significant.
However, in the future, because of the likelihood of wage inflation outstripping price
inflation incomes will be higher than the rest of the country but this will be offset by
higher prices.
(5) Economic Growth Scenarios
Because of uncertainties regarding the long-term growth, it is considered necessary

to present three economic growth scenarios: high, medium and low. This should
reflect all possibilities for the way in which the economy will develop in the future
High economic Growth Scenario
The previous section 2.3 reported on the government’s vision for the period until
2017. This required growth rates of 6.8% during the period 1997-2002, and 7.6%
during the years 2003-17. These are very high rates and difficult to sustain over a
period of 20 years. No country has achieved this in recent history although both
China and India have recorded some impressive performance. As can be seen from
the earlier discussion on recent national growth rates, this target is unlikely to be met
for the year ending 2002. Recent press statements13 from the government indicate
that the government expects to achieve average growth rates of 6.5% for the period
2002-2007. It is, however, important to retain this growth strategy as one of the
scenarios, particularly because the investment strategy of the government will be
based on trying to achieve these high growth figures. However, and in order to
reflect recent past performance and the still unstable world economy, it is proposed
that growth would be less over the period 2002-12, rising from 4.6% in the first part
to 6.1% in the years leading up to 2012. Thereafter, higher 5 year annual growth
rates are postulated, 6.5% and 7% respectively.
13
Egyptian Gazette, 22 May 2002
2 - 65
This scenario would require both high public and private sector spending, a stable
exchange rate regime and no major world economic downturns. The overall growth
rate over the period would be a highly respectable 6.1% per annum.
Medium Economic Growth Scenario
The medium economic growth scenario assumes lower growth over the next couple
of years but also assumes that the effects of the privatization program will form the
foundation of further economic growth for later years. As the evidence in Eastern
Europe suggested, the benefits of such a policy cannot continue forever. Because the
privatization program is not so dramatic in Egypt, it is assumed that this slowing
economic growth will take place at a later date. Therefore five year growth rates of
4%, 5%, 4.5% and 4.5% respectively have been assumed. Nevertheless, economic
growth over the entire forecast period is still a reasonable 4.6% and is only just lower
than growth seen in the last five years. Because of the events of September 11th, the
World Bank has been revising their long-term forecasts for the country.
Conversations with World Bank staff have indicated that medium economic growth
scenario, proposed for this JICA study, is broadly in line with the Bank’s forecasts.
Low Economic Growth Scenario
This growth scenario takes the assumptions that recovery will come later and that the
privatization program, and its effects, will be much less significant. It is also
assumed that these effects will decrease over time. This leads to growth rates of
3.5%, 4%, 3.5% and 3.5%. The overall growth rate is 3.7%. These are just above the
growth rates seen between the mid 1980’s and 90’s.
Table 3.2.2 summarizes the forecast growth rates for each of the scenarios. Based on
1996/97 prices, the effect of each of the scenarios on GDP is shown
diagrammatically in Figure 2.4.4.
Table 2.4.2 GDP Growth Rates, Economic Growth Scenarios, 2002-2022

Growth scenario 2002-2007 2008-2012 2013-2017 2018-2022 2002-2022
High 4.6% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0% 6.1%
Medium 4.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6%
Low 3.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7%
Source: JICA study team estimates
2 - 66
LE billion (1996/97 prices) 1,200

1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022
High Medium Low 1997-2001
Source: JICA Study Team estimates
Figure 2.4.4 Gross Domestic Product, Egypt, Economic Scenarios
2.4.3 Future Population

As stated in section 2.3, there is a decreasing, but still positive rate of population
growth in the Study Area. Population forecasts for the country as a whole also
demonstrate this declining trend.
(1) The Study Area
Population forecasts for the Greater Cairo Region have been prepared by two
organizations, the Cairo Demographic Center (CDC) and the Ministry of Planning.
These forecasts are described below.
Cairo Demographic Center
The Cairo Demographic Center was founded by the United Nations and the Egyptian
government. It is currently funded by the Egyptian government. This center for
population research has published forecast data14 by governorate until the year 2021.
The basis for its forecasts are past population data from CAPMAS. Three fertility
variants were developed by the center. No specific analysis was made of the impact
of the new communities.
Forecast population and growth rates for the governorates of Cairo, Giza and
Qalyobeya, prepared by the Cairo Demographic Center, are shown below in Table
2.4.3
14
‘Population Projections by Sex and Age for Total Egypt and Governorates, 2001-2021’, Cairo
Demographic Center, September 2000
2 - 67
Table 2.4.3 Governorate Population Forecasts, CDC, 2001-21

Estimated population (‘000s)
Governorates
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Cairo 7,202 7,739 8,347 9,033 9,790
Giza 5,404 6,084 6,756 7,392 7,952
Qalyobeya 3,757 4,203 4,679 5,105 5,491
Total 16,363 18,026 19,782 21,530 23,233
Annual growth rate,
Annual growth rates, 5 Year Periods
total period
2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2001-21
Cairo 1.45% 1.52% 1.59% 1.62% 1.55%
Giza 2.40% 2.12% 1.82% 1.47% 1.95%
Qalyobeya 2.27% 2.17% 1.76% 1.47% 1.92%
Total 1.95% 1.88% 1.71% 1.53% 1.77%
Source: Cairo Demographic Center
Ministry of Planning
As part of its future strategy15 for developing the Greater Cairo Region, the Ministry
of Planning have developed population forecasts for the year 2017. These forecasts
are shown below in Table 2.4.4.
Table 2.4.4 Governorate Population Forecasts, Ministry of Planning, 2017

Governorate Population 1996 (‘000s) Population 2017 (‘000s)
Cairo* 6,809 9,500
Giza 4,779 6,300
Qalyobeya 3,292 4,400
Total 14,880 20,200
Source: Ministry of Planning. * includes 10th of Ramadan city
The total forecast for the three Governorates by the CDC is within 3% of the
population forecast of Ministry of Planning, which also includes the 10th of Ramadan
city. It is believed that the forecast data from the CDC forms a source for the
ministry’s population projections.
However, it is believed that there are differences regarding net reproduction rates
(NRR)16 i.e. the two organizations use different years at which the NRR equals one.
However, there has been a decrease in funding available for family planning since
that time and the CDC’s forecasts more accurately reflect that i.e. that the slowing of
the birth rate will not be so successful and the NRR will be at a later date.
15
‘National Project for Developing the Cairo Region’, Ministry of Planning, 1997
16 According to the United Nations Population Division, the Net Reproduction Rate is ‘The average
number of daughters a hypothetical cohort of women would have at the end of their reproductive period if
they were subject during their whole lives to the fertility rates and the mortality rates of a given period. It is
expressed as number of daughters per woman.’
2 - 68
Adjustments for Study Area and for traffic model forecast years
Based on the CDC forecasts, modifications have been made to the projected
population data in order to take account of the Study Area boundaries and for the
traffic model forecast years. These modifications are shown below in Table 2.4.5 and
in Figure 2.4.5
Table 2.4.5 Forecast Population, JICA Study Area, 2007-2022

Forecast Population
Governorate 2001 2007 2012 2017 2022
Cairo 7,364 8,082 8,730 9,452 10,241
Giza 4,385 4,766 5,276 5,753 6,189
Qalyobeya 2,642 3,294 3,652 3,973 4,274
Total 14,391 16,141 17,658 19,178 20,704
Annual growth rates
Governorate 2001-07 2007-12 2012-17 2017-22 2001-22
Cairo 1.56% 1.55% 1.60% 1.62% 1.58%
Giza 1.40% 2.06% 1.75% 1.47% 1.65%
Qalyobeya 3.74% 2.09% 1.70% 1.47% 2.32%
Total 1.93% 1.81% 1.67% 1.54% 1.75%
Source: JICA study team calculations, based on CDC forecasts. * includes 10th of Ramadan city
Figure 3.3.1 Forecast population, JICA Study Area, 2001-2022

25
Study Area population (mln)
20
15
10
0
2001 2007 2012 2017 2022
Cairo (+ 10 Ramadan) Giza Qalyobeya
Figure 2.4.5 Forecast Population, JICA Study Area, 2001-2022

National Forecasts
The CDC has also prepared population forecasts for the country as a whole. These
are shown below in Table 2.4.6.
2 - 69
Table 2.4.6 Population Forecasts, Egypt, 2001-2021
2001 2007 2012 2017 2021

CDC (Low) 64.66 71.77 77.66 83.28 87.47
CDC (Medium) 65.07 72.87 79.58 85.95 90.88
CDC (High) 65.30 73.64 80.86 87.93 93.46
Growth rates, 5yr periods
2001-07 2007-12 2012-17 2017-21 2001-21
CDC (Low) 1.75% 1.59% 1.41% 0.99% 1.52%
CDC (Medium) 1.90% 1.78% 1.55% 1.12% 1.68%
CDC (High) 2.02% 1.89% 1.69% 1.23% 1.81%
Source: Cairo Demographic Center
As a comparison with the average annual growth rates for the JICA Study Area, the
national growth rate for the medium variant (1.68% over the period 2001-2021) is
marginally lower than the forecast for the Study Area (1.75% for the period
2001-2022).
(2) The New Communities
In section 2.3, nine new communities were identified within the JICA Study Area. Of
these communities, two (Sheikh Zayed City and New Communities No. 7) are at
very early stages of development and have been included with 6th of October. The
15th of May is considered as an established city and very little analysis has been
undertaken for this community. The locations of the six new communities that have
been investigated are shown below in Figure 2.4.6.
During the course of this study, site visits have been made to almost all of these
communities. From observations made during these visits, it is clear that some have
been more successful in their establishment than others. Another important point is
that it has been difficult to establish the actual, current residential population of these
new communities. Representatives spoken to were often unsure of the exact numbers
of those who had come to live there although it was easier to ascertain progress in
terms of the number of residential houses and apartments that had been constructed.
Certain key factors could be considered as being instrumental in the success of the
new communities. These are as follows:
• State investment in housing, infrastructure/utilities (roads, telecommunications,

water treatment plants etc)
• Private investment in housing, commercial facilities (banks etc) and employment
• Provision of transport facilities
2 - 70
Figure 2.4.6 New Communities within the JICA Study Area

In all the new communities visited, there had been considerable state investment in
certain forms of housing (Moubarak youth program and economic housing). When
traveling through the communities, however, it was not immediately obvious that
there had been a significant take-up of residents. From talking to new community
representatives, it was clear that investment by the state in housing was slowing and
that more recent construction was being undertaken by the private sector. A
considerable volume of private sector housing has been constructed. However, it was
again observed that, in many new communities, very few houses and apartments
were occupied. With regard to transport links, in several of the new communities
(which were particularly far away from the center of Cairo), representatives voiced
concern over the volume of existing public bus service provision.
Target populations for the new communities are as given in the revised 1997 Greater
Cairo Master Plan. Table 2.4.7 shows these target populations and the estimated
current populations.
2 - 71
Table 2.4.7 Current and Target Populations, New Communities

New Community Current estimated population Target population, 2017
Oboor 42,000 500,000
Shorooq 25,000 500,000
New Cairo 120,000 750,000
Badr 25,000 430,000
6th October 200,000 1,500,000
10th Ramadan 196,000 500,000
Total 608,000 4,180,000
Source: Existing pop: from new community representatives. Target pop: Revised Greater Cairo Masterplan,
1997
Recent discussions with the GOPP have indicated that further locations are to be
established as new communities including New Heliopolis and El Amal. The target
population for all the new communities would then be in the region of 6 mln
inhabitants. However, it is believed that the dates for achieving these targets have not
yet been defined. Because of these new communities are still in the planning stage,
no further detailed analysis has been carried out for these latest communities.
(3) Implementation of the New Communities
For the forecasting of the distribution of the population with the JICA Study Area, it
is clearly very important to be able to estimate the population of the new
communities for each of the traffic model forecast years. As stated previously,
however, it is not certain whether the target populations can be achieved. It should be
further noted that, under the population projections described above, if the new
communities were to be successfully implemented within the target period then this
would mean that virtually all of the projected population increase, over the twenty
year forecast period, would be in the new communities rather than in the Greater
Cairo Region. Figure 2.4.7 illustrates this point.
In order to estimate possible realistic implementation scenarios for the new

communities, the Consultants have investigated at growth in one of the new
communities, 6th of October, and have conducted a regression analysis based on
government investment in infrastructure, the share of the private sector in GDP and
real GDP, for the period 1994-2001. These three variables reflect the discussion
above on the key factors required for the success of the new communities. As also
stated above, it is very difficult to obtain precise estimates of population for the new
communities. Population for the year 2001 (200,000 inhabitants) and 1998 (150,000)
was obtained from the public relations office of the 6th October. Population for the
year 1996 (36,000) was obtained from CAPMAS. It was known that, prior to 1996,
population was very small and nominal population estimates were taken for that
period. Similarly, population was estimated by the Consultant for the years 1999 and
2000. The estimated population for the 6th October, for the period 1994-2001, is
shown below in Figure 2.4.8
2 - 72
25
20
Inhabitants (mln)
15.0 mln
15
10
5 4.18 mln
0
2001 2006 2011 2017
New communities Remainder study area
JICA Study Area: 2001 = 14.39 mln

2017 = 19.18 mln
Source: Population projections from CDC,; new communities target population from Revised Greater Cairo
Masterplan, 1997
Figure 2.4.7 Distribution of Future Population if New Communities Successfully

Implemented
Figure 3.3.4 Estimated population of 6th October, 1994-20
250,000
200,000
Population
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: 2001 & 1998, PR office, 6th October; 1996, CAPMAS; remaining years, JICA study team estimates
Figure 2.4.8 Estimated Population of 6th October, 1994-2001

A further estimate made by the Consultants was regarding the share of private sector
as a percentage of GDP for the year 2000. These were made on the reasonable basis
that GDP growth was a little lower than the previous year, 5.1% against 6.0%.
Because growth in the year 2001 was much lower, 3.3%, it was more difficult to
estimate these variables and this year was omitted from the regression. Table 2.4.8
shows the input variables for the regression analysis.
2 - 73
Table 2.4.8 Input Data, 6th October

Government
Share private
Population, investment
Year sector /GDP Real GDP
6th October expenditure
(%)
/GDP (%)
1994 2,000 63.30% 6.10% 207.07
1995 12,000 64.30% 5.50% 216.72
1996 36,000 65.50% 5.50% 227.46
1997 85,000 68.80% 5.50% 239.50
1998 150,000 70.70% 5.60% 253.09
1999 175,000 74.90% 8.40% 268.40
2000 190,000 74.00% 8.00% 282.09
2001 200,000 291.40
Source: Population, various, economic data: Monthly Economic Digest, Ministry of Economy and
Foreign Trade, June 2001.
The resulting regression gives a very high r-squared of 0.965. Against this it must be
stated that the number of observations is low i.e. 7 and that several of the variables
are interlinked and, therefore, it is not surprising that such a high r-squared has been
obtained Nevertheless, as an indication of how the new communities would develop
under the different economic growth scenarios, the analysis forms a reasonable
starting point. Using the results of the regression analysis, the population of the 6th of
October has been calculated for each of the traffic model forecast years up until the
year 2017. For each of the economic growth scenarios, assumptions have been made
regarding the private sector share of GDP and government investment expenditure.
Given the government’s commitment to privatization, higher shares for the private
sector are expected under higher economic growth. Similarly, with higher economic
growth, it can be expected that there will be a more government investment in
infrastructure. The results are shown below in Table 2.4.9. The forecast
implementation as a percentage of the target population is also shown. Figure 2.4.9
shows the forecast population for the 6th of October, up until the year 2017, under
each of the economic growth scenarios.
2 - 74
Table 2.4.9 Forecast population, 6th of October, 2007-2017

% share % investment
Economic growth % GDP Estimated % of target
private expenditure Real GDP
scenario growth p.a. population population
sector/GDP /GDP
High growth 6.1%
2007 80% 7% 416 427,709
2012 80% 7% 559 603,435
2017 80% 7% 751 839,708 85%
Medium growth 4.6%

2007 75% 6% 382 336,966
2012 75% 6% 478 455,039
2017 75% 6% 598 602,885 60%
Low growth 3.7%

2007 70% 5% 362 264,325
2012 70% 5% 435 352,891
2017 70% 5% 521 459,100 45%
Target growth 7.2%

2007 80% 7% 441 458,751
2012 80% 7% 623 681,890
2017 80% 7% 880 997,054 100%
1,200,000
No. of inhabitants, 6th October
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Existing Target High Medium Low
Figure 2.4.9 Estimated Population of 6th of October, Economic Growth Scenarios

In principle, similar exercises can be undertaken for the remainder of the new
communities. Therefore, for example, each of the new communities would reach
60% of the target population by the 2017. However, certain modifications must be
considered. Firstly, several of the new communities such as Oboor, Shorroq, Badr
and Sheikh Zayed are only at the initial stages of being established. Therefore, for
2 - 75
these cities, it has been assumed that the development stages, as proposed for the 6th
of October, are delayed by five years. After that time, the forecast development
curves are then introduced. Secondly, 10th Ramadan has already reached a population
of 196,000 (in the year 2001) and is currently attracting considerable industrial
investment. It is, therefore, assumed that 10th Ramadan will reach its target
population of 500,000 by the year 2017. Estimates of population, for each of the new
communities, have been made for the year 2022 using reasonable population growth
rates. Based on these calculations, the population of the remainder of the Study Area
can be calculated i.e. the total populations of the new communities are subtracted
from the control totals for the whole of the Study Area (see also Table 2.4.5). The
estimated populations are shown below in Table 2.4.10.The results shown are for the
medium economic growth scenario. Populations at the Shiakha level were calculated,
with consideration taken of both saturation levels and natural growth rates for
individual Shiakhas.
Table 2.4.10 Forecast populations (‘000s), adjusted for New Communities, Medium
Economic Growth Scenario, 2007-2022
2007 2012 2022
New Communities:
Oboor 50 112 300
Shorouq 50 112 300
New Cairo 165 272 699
Badr 38 88 200
6th October 302 426 865
10th Ramadan 278 373 576
Sheik Zayed 30 87 300
Total new communities: 914 1,469 3,241
Remainder study area: 15,228 16,189 17,463
Total, all Study Area 16,098 17,649 20,721
2.4.4 Average Household Income

Based on the economic growth scenarios and the forecast populations, the average
monthly household income can be calculated. As shown in section 2.3, there is a
good relationship between GDP per capita and household income. Thus, growth rates
for future household income are similar to the GDP per capita growth rates given for
the three scenarios. It is further assumed, due to the absence of detailed historic data,
that income distribution remains the same between zones i.e. zones that are high
income now will remain so in the future. The results are shown below in Table
2.4.11. All incomes are in 2001 prices.
2 - 76
Table 2.4.11 Average Household Income (LE per month), 2001-2022,

in Constant 2001 Prices
2001 2007 2012 2017 2022
Average household income (LE per
672 785 964 1,217 1,579
month), high economic growth
Factor increase on year 2001 1.17 1.44 1.81 2.35
672 754 879 1,006 1,176
month), medium economic growth
672 736 819 896 985
month), low economic growth
2.4.5 Future Employment
(1) Historic Trends
Estimates of future employment within the JICA Study Area have been based on
several sources. Table 2.4.12 shows employment for the GCR and for Egypt as a
whole for the two years, 1986 and 1996. Source data for 1996 was obtained form
CAPMAS statistics. For 1986, the total national employment level was based on
extrapolated data from employment statistics provided by the International Labor
Organization. Employment by sector for Egypt and for the GCR was calculated,
based on percentages given in the Ministry of Planning’s ‘National Project for
Developing the Cairo Region, 1997’17.
Table 2.4.12 Employment (‘000s), GCR and Egypt, 1986 and 1996
Cairo Egypt
% %
1986 1996 % p.a. 1986 1996 % p.a.
increase increase
Primary 287 220 -23.4% -2.63% 1986 1996 +14.1% +1.33%
Secondary 1367 1685 +23.3% +2.11% 4278 4881 +27.9% +2.49%
Tertiary 1496 1862 +24.5% +2.21% 3596 4600 +26.6% +2.38%
Total 3150 3767 +19.6% +1.80% 12842 15678 +22.8% +2.07%
Source: 1986 (total national employment, ILO; percentage distribution, Ministry of Planning), 1996 (CAPMAS)
Average annual GDP growth over the same period was 3.35%. As a reasonable
estimate, therefore, it can be assumed that a 1% growth in GDP leads to an increase
in total employment of between 0.53% (Cairo) and 0.62% (Egypt). For the three
economic scenarios, an expected annual increase in total employment would be:
17
Table 1-14 of 1997 document
2 - 77
Low economic growth (3.7%) 1.96% - 2.29%
Medium economic growth (4.6%) 2.4% - 2.85%
High economic growth (6.1%) 3.23% - 3.78%
As can be seen, from Table 2.4.12, there was a negative growth in the number of
workers employed in the primary sector (farming, fishing and quarrying), in the
GCR, and on this basis it can be reasonably inferred that it is unlikely that there will
be considerable future growth within this sector. However, given the anticipated
growth in population over the 20 year forecast period, some employment in the
primary sector is anticipated. For this study, a nominal growth rate of 0.5% per year
has been used.
As can be seen from the above Table 2.4.12, the total increase in employment in the
GCR has been smaller in the GCR than for the rest of Egypt, although the main
reason for this is because of the observed reduction in the number of primary sector
workers which was a different trend than the rest of the country. Employment growth
in the secondary and tertiary sectors have been marginally less in the GCR than in
the rest of the country. Given the government’s commitment to spread development
throughout the country, this result is not surprising. Where the GCR has recorded
greater growth has been in the tertiary (public administration/trade/tourism/finance
sectors) i.e. an annual increase of 4.8%, which could be expected in a capital city.
Table 2.4.12 shows data for two years only. To obtain a clearer picture of data over a
period, total employment for the country as a whole was compared with annual GDP
growth over the period 1991-2001. Total national employment and GDP growth is
shown below in Table 2.4.13
Table 2.4.13 National Employment and GDP Growth, 1991-2001

Employment (in thousands) % growth
Year GDP growth
Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Primary Secondary Tertiary Total
1990/91 4,579 2,738 6,104 13,421
1991/92 4,604 2,651 6,487 13,742 0.53% -3.16% 6.27% 2.39% 1.90%
1992/93 4,681 2,885 6,445 14,011 1.68% 8.81% -0.65% 1.96% 2.50%
1993/94 4,741 3,025 6,670 14,436 1.28% 4.86% 3.49% 3.03% 3.90%
1994/95 4,805 3,163 6,911 14,879 1.35% 4.56% 3.61% 3.07% 4.70%
1995/96 4,875 3,296 7,169 15,340 1.45% 4.21% 3.73% 3.10% 5.00%
1996/97 4,809 3,279 7,737 15,825 -1.35% -0.52% 7.92% 3.16% 5.30%
1997/98 4,886 3,499 7,959 16,344 1.59% 6.73% 2.87% 3.28% 5.70%
1998/99 4,973 3,697 8,204 16,874 1.79% 5.65% 3.08% 3.24% 6.10%
1999/2000 5,058 3,895 8,466 17,419 1.71% 5.36% 3.19% 3.23% 6.50%
2000/01 5,146 4,104 8,734 17,984 1.75% 5.35% 3.17% 3.24% 3.30%
Source: Employment data: Quarterly Economic Digest, Oct-Dec 2000, Ministry of Economy and Foreign Trade.
GDP data: World Economic Outlook 2002, IMF
From Table 2.4.13, it can be seen that total employment growth changes very little
with regard to changes in GDP. In particular, for the period 1993/94 – 2000/01,
2 - 78
employment growth increased in the range 3.0% to 3.3% whilst GDP growth was
between 3.3% and 6.1%. For the three economic scenarios it would be expected that
the total annual employment would be as follows:
% GDP growth Annual employment growth

3.7% 3.0%
4.6% 3.1%
6.1% 3.25%
Given the lower employment growth observed in the GCR, this would imply that
total employment growth would be lower i.e. 87% (=1.8%/2.07%). It is furthermore
assumed that growth in the tertiary sector would be slightly higher than that foreseen
for the secondary sector. Under the medium economic growth scenario, therefore, the
following average annual employment growth rates, by sector and for the JICA
Study Area, are anticipated to be as follows:
GDP growth (medium growth scenario) 4.6%

Primary sector, average annual employment growth 0.5%
Secondary sector, average annual employment growth 2.7%
Tertiary sector, average annual employment growth 2.8%
Total, all sectors, average annual employment growth 2.7%
Based on these growth percentages, employment by sector, for the traffic model
years, is shown below in Table 2.4.14. Information for the year 2001 is for
employment by location and is based on the Consultant’s HIS data. The factors
shown above have been applied to calculate employment by location for the traffic
model years. It should be noted that Tables 2.4.16 are also employment data.
Table 2.4.14 Forecast Employment, 2007-2022, Medium Economic Growth Scenario

2001 2007 2012 2022
Total pop 14,391,987 16,097,708 17,649,144 20,721,173
Primary employed 154,762 159,463 163,490 171,851
Secondary employed 1,382,324 1,621,932 1,853,040 2,418,741
Tertiary employed 2,449,890 2,891,381 3,319,486 4,375,241
Total employed 3,986,977 4,672,776 5,336,016 6,965,833
It could be considered that this forecast employment data is conservative in

estimation. Higher rates of growth, particularly in the secondary sector, have been
observed in the country as a whole. In the previous section 2.3, it was calculated that
the labor force participation rate, in 1996, was almost 50% i.e. total population in the
age range 15-60 years (8 mln) divided by a potential labor force (3.93 mln). The
potential labor force was calculated from employment by residence data.
From the forecast population data, in section 2.4.3, the number of persons in the
15-60 years age range has been calculated. Given a labor force participation rate of
50%, the potential labor force for the traffic model forecast years can be calculated
and compared the employment forecast totals. The results of this exercise are shown
below in Table 2.4.15.
2 - 79
Table 2.4.15 Labor Partic. Rate and Forecast Employment, 2001-2022 (‘000s)
2001 2007 2012 2022
1. Population, 15-60 yrs, (‘000s) 8,982 10,396 11,453 13,641
2. Estimated labor force (‘000s) 4,491 5,198 5,727 6,821
3. Forecast employment (000s) 3,987 4,673 5,336 6,967
4. % difference 2 & 3 11.22% 10.10% 6.82% -2.14%
Source: Population data: CDC, adjusted for JICA Study Area; Employment data, JICA study team calculations
As can be seen from the above data, given the decreasing rate of population growth
within the Study Area, by the year 2022, the forecast employment levels are slightly
less than the available estimated labor force, although it is anticipated that some
labor would need to be drawn from outside the JICA Study Area. This would suggest
that higher employment growth may be difficult to attain, given also that the
government is actively spreading investment throughout the rest of the country and,
hence, reducing the availability of labor from other parts of the country.
(2) Distribution of Employment within Study Area
Given the estimated future employment levels calculated above, these forecasts must
then be distributed within the Study Area. In general, it is reasonable to infer that
employment growth within individual traffic zones will be similar. This is
particularly relevant for the primary and tertiary employment sectors. The exception,
however, is that of manufacturing within the secondary employment sector. Future
manufacturing activity decisions are influenced by the incentives that are made
available by the state. Manufacturing jobs are estimated to make up 62% of
secondary sector jobs18. The estimated manufacturing and non-manufacturing jobs
for the traffic model forecast years is shown below in Table 2.4.16.
Of the proposed new communities, three (Oboor, 6th October, 10th Ramadan) are
designated as industrial cities. Of the anticipated increase in manufacturing jobs, it is
assumed that 50% of all new employment will be taken up in these new industrial
cities, with the remainder spread over the rest of the Study Area and increased
proportionally with the year 2001 estimates
Table 2.4.16 Estimated Manufacturing/Non-manufacturing Jobs (‘000s), Secondary

Sector, 2001-2022
2001 2007 2012 2022
Manufacturing (‘000s) 857.0 1,005.6 1,148.9 1,499.6
Non-manufacturing (‘000s) 525.3 616.3 704.2 919.1
Total secondary sector 1,382.3 1,621.9 1,853.0 2,418.7
Source: JICA study team calculations. N.B. some differences due to rounding
2.4.6 Future Education

Estimates of student numbers, pre-university and university, for the traffic model
forecast years were calculated on the basis of the CDC population projections and
adjusted for the Study Area boundaries. It is believed that the country has a relatively
high proportion of students in tertiary education in comparison to its relative wealth.
18
See section 2.3.
2 - 80
This would indicate that the projected increases in GDP, under the three economic
scenarios, would not necessarily lead to more students entering higher education as a
proportion of the population. For this study, student numbers are assumed to increase
in line with population growth. For pre-university students, future levels are based on
population increase by Governorate. For university students, future levels are based
on population increases within the Study Area as a whole, based on the assumption
of greater student mobility. On this basis, initial calculations were made in order to
calculate control totals. These are shown below in Table 2.4.17.
Table 2.4.17 Initial Estimates of Future Student Numbers, 2007-2022

Pre-university students 2001 2007 2012 2022
Cairo + 10th Ramadan 2,128,665 2,024,340 2,008,701 2,106,418
Giza 1,293,845 1,369,649 1,436,578 1,567,534
Qalyobeya 787,560 831,339 867,571 946,495
Total 4,210,070 4,225,329 4,312,850 4,620,446
University students
Cairo + 10th Ramadan 540,007 614,637 599,632 636,945
Giza 253,908 293,176 284,983 301,602
Qalyobeya 8,858 10,233 9,936 10,522
Total 802,773 918,046 894,551 949,069
Source: JICA study team estimates. Based on CDC population projections and adjusted for Study Area.
Because of the anticipated larger increases of population in the new communities, the
number of pre-university students was re-calculated based on proposed future
populations for each of the new communities.
Because of the projected decreased population growth rates, it can be seen from
Table 2.4.17 that there the projected absolute number of university students is
actually estimated to decrease in the years 2012 and 2017. In practice, this is
believed unlikely to happen, given the prominence and reputation of the universities
of Cairo. Therefore, for these years, a straight line increase is taken between the
years 2007 and 2022. Small adjustments were made to the anticipated number of
students in the 10th of Ramadan.
The adjusted and final estimates of the future students in the Study Area, for the
traffic model forecast years, are shown below in Table 2.4.18.
Table 2.4.18 Final, Adjusted Estimates of Student Numbers, JICA Study Area
Pre-university students: 2001 2007 2012 2022
Total Study Area 4,210,071 4,222,010 4,312,859 4,621,905
Of which new communities 209,294 313,383 631,474
University students:
Total Study Area 802,774 920,396 938,046 966,325
Source: JICA study team estimates
2 - 81
Finally estimated socio-economic frameworks of the Study are shown in Tables

2.4.19 to 2.4.21 in 2007, 2012 and 2022, respectively. Maps, which illustrate the
socio-economic frameworks in 2022, are also shown in Figure 2.4.10 to 2.4.12.
Table 2.4.19 Socio-economic Framework – Year 2007 -

Sector
1 6th of October City 331,961 88,053 3.77 986 3,844 123,962 55,591 127,617 41,103 44.7
2 Imbaba Markaz 1,386,580 321,857 4.31 505 27,383 46,912 101,143 365,122 0 22.9
3 Doqy 1,261,533 314,212 4.01 968 10,336 142,447 307,631 354,753 10,242 43.3
4 Giza 1,326,850 331,677 4.00 809 16,517 77,109 228,800 388,625 241,831 36.5
5 South Giza 476,531 106,401 4.48 620 9,388 21,717 43,568 152,700 0 29.1
6 Helwan 831,644 193,082 4.31 716 3,869 141,361 86,310 212,644 97,426 33.0
7 Maadi 909,902 223,723 4.07 914 8,626 66,019 110,573 196,931 10,941 38.6
8 Khaleefa 778,842 212,484 3.67 664 3,459 59,009 161,434 206,696 40,607 30.1
9 CBD 432,735 126,790 3.41 821 6,819 231,892 491,531 147,080 25,469 36.8
10 Shobra 1,121,253 284,509 3.94 661 2,156 54,538 150,929 250,751 10,371 31.1
11 Masr El Gedeeda 921,582 239,164 3.85 1,093 9,184 136,698 337,448 275,763 323,284 48.5
12 Nasr City 860,758 226,312 3.80 1,423 10,740 139,660 285,768 250,762 91,368 56.6
13 Ain Shams 1,027,162 244,237 4.21 677 2,848 35,726 105,243 246,229 12,522 31.5
14 Salam City 842,540 204,896 4.11 642 2,469 34,904 78,606 175,868 0 29.6
15 Shobra El-Kheima 1,159,090 262,896 4.41 541 7,811 68,837 89,771 286,917 8,755 25.3
16 Qalyob 938,387 201,977 4.65 508 17,431 44,142 89,444 225,623 0 22.4
17 Qanater 1,211,890 278,570 4.35 470 12,744 62,997 102,605 294,150 1,478 20.4
Total 16,097,708 3,930,111 4.10 754 159,463 1,621,932 2,891,381 4,222,010 920,396 33.6

Sector
1 6th of October City 512,251 135,876 3.77 1,150 3,941 166,749 63,822 109,263 41,552 52.3
2 Imbaba Markaz 1,502,897 348,849 4.31 588 28,075 52,041 116,119 378,975 0 27.3
3 Doqy 1,336,321 333,417 4.01 1,133 10,597 158,020 353,180 368,212 10,354 47.8
4 Giza 1,423,211 355,751 4.00 945 16,934 85,539 262,677 403,370 244,476 42.5
5 South Giza 519,046 115,893 4.48 723 9,625 24,092 50,018 158,493 0 33.7
6 Helwan 917,952 212,861 4.31 837 3,967 156,816 99,089 208,679 98,850 38.7
7 Maadi 941,248 231,559 4.06 1,068 8,844 73,237 126,945 193,259 11,100 44.7
8 Khaleefa 814,296 222,334 3.66 776 3,546 65,460 185,337 202,842 41,201 36.0
9 CBD 455,553 133,528 3.41 960 6,991 257,244 564,308 144,338 25,841 42.0
10 Shobra 1,152,744 292,641 3.94 771 2,210 60,500 173,277 246,075 10,523 36.7
11 Masr El Gedeeda 968,265 251,366 3.85 1,279 9,416 151,643 387,412 270,621 328,008 55.0
12 Nasr City 1,116,934 293,097 3.81 1,516 11,012 154,929 328,080 289,818 92,703 58.5
13 Ain Shams 1,053,582 250,651 4.20 790 2,920 39,631 120,825 241,637 12,705 37.5
14 Salam City 894,597 217,555 4.11 749 2,531 38,720 90,245 172,588 0 35.0
15 Shobra El-Kheima 1,264,331 286,766 4.41 631 8,008 76,363 103,062 296,302 8,841 30.1
16 Qalyob 1,023,589 220,315 4.65 592 17,872 48,968 102,687 233,003 0 27.2
17 Qanater 1,379,188 317,433 4.34 548 13,066 79,682 117,797 315,793 1,493 25.5
Total 17,649,144 4,312,714 4.09 879 163,490 1,853,040 3,319,486 4,312,859 938,046 39.1
2 - 82

Population No. of HH HH size Montly Income Employment Students
Sector
(LE per Month) Primary Secondary Tertiary Non-Univ. Univ.
1 6th of October City 1,165,350 309,111 3.77 1,522 4,143 297,269 84,120 227,077 42,284
2 Imbaba Markaz 1,655,902 384,356 4.31 776 29,510 64,595 153,050 385,228 0
3 Doqy 1,434,266 358,580 4.00 1,507 11,139 196,141 465,508 374,287 10,537
4 Giza 1,553,754 388,374 4.00 1,253 17,800 106,174 346,221 410,025 248,782
5 South Giza 575,006 128,388 4.48 957 10,117 29,903 65,927 161,108 0
6 Helwan 1,134,251 262,183 4.33 1,117 4,169 194,646 130,605 203,761 100,963
7 Maadi 994,585 244,894 4.06 1,404 9,296 90,904 167,320 188,704 11,338
8 Khaleefa 877,262 239,697 3.66 1,032 3,727 81,252 244,283 198,062 42,081
9 CBD 498,015 146,098 3.41 1,274 7,349 319,301 743,785 140,936 26,393
10 Shobra 1,218,025 309,357 3.94 1,023 2,323 75,095 228,387 240,275 10,747
11 Masr El Gedeeda 1,051,815 273,183 3.85 1,703 9,898 188,224 510,627 264,243 335,018
12 Nasr City 1,913,682 501,324 3.82 1,727 11,575 192,303 432,425 418,337 94,684
13 Ain Shams 1,103,589 262,782 4.20 1,047 3,069 49,192 159,253 235,942 12,976
14 Salam City 991,200 241,048 4.11 991 2,661 48,061 118,947 168,521 0
15 Shobra El-Kheima 1,262,074 285,981 4.41 834 8,417 94,784 135,841 301,140 9,002
16 Qalyob 1,115,550 239,550 4.66 784 18,786 60,781 135,347 236,807 0
17 Qanater 1,600,622 368,919 4.34 725 13,734 110,977 155,262 355,169 1,520
18 10th of Ramadan City 576,225 143,339 4.02 974 4,137 219,139 98,335 112,281 20,000
Total 20,721,173 5,087,164 4.07 1,176 171,851 2,418,741 4,375,241 4,621,905 966,325
Figure 2.4.10 Population Density Map – Year 2022 –
2 - 83
Figure 2.4.11 Work Place Employment Density Map – Year 2022 –
Figure 2.4.12 Household Income Distribution – Year 2022 –
2 - 84

Figure 2.2.2 A Macro View of The Urbanization Process of The Study Area in 2000

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Figure 2.2.2 A Macro View of The Urbanization Process of The Study Area in 2000

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CREATS Phase I Final Report Vol.

III: Transport Master Plan

Figure 2.2.3 Cairo Urban Spreading since 1968

1968 1977 1982 2000

Urbanized Area (km2) 160 206 254 290

3) Concentration of Pivotal Urban Functions to the GCR

Source: The Statistical Year Book 1993-1999, CAPMAS

Figure 2.2.5 Comparative Concentration of Urban Functions in the GCR

(2) Long-term Development Strategies for the Greater Cairo Region

1) The Physical Planning Law No. 3/1982

As a legislative framework for the regional development planning in Egypt, the

2) General Policy Directions of the GCR Master Plan

• Protect arable land, while providing a better industrial location strategy;

Greater Cairo Region Master Plan 1997 by GOPP

3) Strategic Urbanization Corridors

Figure 2.2.7 Major Urban Growth Corridors in the GCR

4) New Settlement Projects

To achieve the planned decentralization by facilitating the new community

Table 2.2.2 New Community Developments in the GCR

5) Ring Roads for the GCR Spatial Structure

6) Urban Growth Management

No clear-cut legislative frameworks effectively practical for the urban growth

2.3 CURRENT SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION

2.3.1 The Study Area

Table 2.3.1 Study Area and Coverage of Administrative Units

Use of strategic sectors in the Study Area:

Figure 2.3.1 Strategic Sectors

2.3.2 Macro-economic Development of Egypt and Cairo

(1) Macro-Economic Developments (1996-2001)

Inflation fell drastically: from a high 20 % in 1991/2 to an average of 11 % in the years

A summary of macro-economic indicators and trends to illustrate these developments,

Table 2.3.2 Egypt: Indicators of Recent Macro-Economic Development

(2) National Development Planning

• Accelerated and steady economic growth led by the private sector:

Table 2.3.3 Main Indicators & Targets of Egypt’ s Economy (2017)

Items: 1996 (actual) Egypt: Long term targets (2017)

(3) The Fourth (1997-2002) and Fifth 5-Year Plan (2002-2007)

Table 2.3.5 Planned Investments in the Fourth 5-Year Plan (1997-2002)

(4) Government Policies relevant for the Study Area

vigorously an extensive reform program covering a series of macro-economic measures

In 1996, when the privatization program began in earnest, 34 % of the workforce in

According to UNCTAD the US companies which have invested in Egypt show an

The Foreign Investment Law nr.8 of May 1997:

Laws on Establishment of New Urban Communities (nr.59/1979, amended by laws

Real estate taxes:

The Mortgage Law of July 2001:

3) Involvement of the Private Sector in the Development of Infrastructure

Egypt is radically reforming the methods by which infrastructure is upgraded to meet

The government’s strategy of creating private sector investment opportunities outside

2.3.3 Socio-Economic Development Trends

(1) Urban Development and Plans

The reviewed documents contain valuable, sometimes detailed, information concerning

Table 2.3.6 Master Planning and Urban Development Trends

Source: JICA Study Team

(2) Historic Population Growth Trends within the Study Area

Main trends and directions of population growth:

(3) Urban Population in the 1996 Census

Table 2.3.7 Area, Population and Pop Densities by Governorate

Area total Pop Pop. density Urban