V-Mart: Annual Report FY18: Improvement Across Key Parameters
V-Mart: Annual Report FY18: Improvement Across Key Parameters
V-Mart: Annual Report FY18: Improvement Across Key Parameters
Stores: Store expansion picked up in FY18 with additions of 31 new stores (total of 171
stores) from 20 stores in FY17. Expansion increased in Tier 4 cities, which accounted for
10.5% of stores in FY18, increasing from 2% in FY17. With entry into Tier 4 cities, VMART
is again the first mover, similar to how it started by expanding in Tier 3 and 4 cities. The
conversion ratio, at 57%, continues to fall (down 260bp YoY), affected by declining share of
kirana and also due to increasing competition. Management will focus in Tier 2,3 and 4 cities
and will open stores via internal accruals.
Working capital: Core working capital days improved to 55 days in FY18 from 57 days in
FY17 largely led by improvement in payable days from 66 days to 72 days, result of vendor
consolidation measures taken by company. Inventory days (on COGS) were up to 127 days
from 123 days.
Cash flow and return ratio: OCF fell 6% YoY to INR6.4bn as absolute working capital
rose YoY (core WC to sales increased to 11.5% from 10.9%). FCF stood at INR1.76bn in Tanmay Sharma, CFA *
FY18 (INR2.96bn in FY17) as capex rose YoY. VMART remains cash positive, with net cash of Equity Analyst
+91 2242246129 tsharma@jefferies.com
INR4.7bn (INR2.9bn in FY17). RoCE and RoE improved 990bp and 760bp YoY, respectively. Varun Lohchab *
Equity Analyst
Estimates: We raise our top-line and EBITDA estimates by ~2% and ~4%, respectively, on +91 22 4224 6115 vlohchab@jefferies.com
strong execution and better than expected retail traction in Q1FY19, * Jefferies India Private Limited
INR Prev. 2017A Prev. 2018A Prev. 2019E Prev. 2020E
Price Performance
Rev. (MM) -- 10,017.0 -- 12,224.0 14,209.0 14,356.0 16,198.0 16,522.0
EV/Rev 4.9x 4.1x 3.5x 3.0x 3,000
1,000
JUL-17 NOV-17 MAR-18 JUL-18
Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on pages 10 to 14 of this report.
VMART IN
Target | Estimate Change
8 July 2018
Company gets 85% of its revenue from apparel with MRP of below INR1000.
Improved the price/value equation further in the business.
Investing in trend analytics and digitalization to help improve product mix.
Improved the store layout, ambience and visual merchandising during FY18.
Did vendor consolidation which also resulted in lower cost of procurement.
The company has increased its merchandise over the years. This has increased
from 3986 SKUs in FY17 to 4591 SKUs in FY18.
Has set up a new data center, invested in IT infrastructure, deployed retail
analytics software.
Stores
Ventured into Tier 4 towns more aggressively, with 19 store addition during
FY18.
86% of the revenues of the company came from non-metro locations.
Opened 31 stores during FY18.
Will open stores only in Tier 2,3 and 4 cities; store openings will be in areas
where the company believes it can break even by the end of the first quarter of
launch and be net positive by the end of first year of operation.
Store openings will happen via internal accruals.
Intends to deepen store footprints by opening stores within 100 to 150 KMs of
existing stores.
8 July 2018
10.0 15.0
5.0 10.0
0.0 5.0
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
0.0
(5.0) FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
(5.0)
SSSG (%)
Overall SSSG (%) SSSG (volumes) (%)
Source: Jefferies, company data
Source: Jefferies, company data
Exhibit 3: Derived sales per sq ft is up ~2% in FY18 to Exhibit 4: ASP in fashion is up 9.8% CAGR over FY13-18;
~INR9300 per sq ft FY18 ASP is down due to GST rate cuts
10,000.0 400.0
9,000.0 350.0
8,000.0
300.0
7,000.0
6,000.0 250.0
5,000.0 200.0
4,000.0 150.0
3,000.0
100.0
2,000.0
1,000.0 50.0
0.0 0.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Derived Sales per sq ft (INR) Fashion ASP (INR) Total ASP (INR)
Exhibit 5: Total footfalls increased 23% YoY; footfall per Exhibit 6: Share of higher margins fashion increased by
store is up 1.2% YoY in FY18 80bps YoY in FY18, up ~1300bps over FY13-18
35.0 0.18 95.0
30.0
0.18 90.0
25.0
0.17 85.0
20.0
10.0
0.16 75.0
5.0
Foot falls (mn) Foot falls per st ore (mn)(rhs) Share of Fashion (%)
8 July 2018
Exhibit 7: Share of private label mix increased to 49% from Exhibit 8: Shrinkage in the business at all time low,
20% in FY18 – margins slightly better in private label suggesting improved internal controls and processes
60.0 2.0
1.8
50.0
1.6
1.4
40.0
1.2
30.0 1.0
0.8
20.0
0.6
0.4
10.0
0.2
0.0 0.0
FY17 FY18 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Exhibit 9: Conversion ratio is down 260bps YoY and Exhibit 10: Total stores stood at 171 at the end of FY18 with
1160bps over FY13-18, indicating some customer fatigue total area of 1.4mn sq ft
80.0 180.0 1.6
0.0 0.0 -
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Exhibit 11: Pace of store addition has picked up, added 31 Exhibit 12: Size per store at ~8400 sq ft is largely stable in
new stores in FY18 FY18, but increased since FY13
35.0 8,500.0
30.0 8,400.0
25.0
8,300.0
20.0
8,200.0
15.0
8,100.0
10.0
5.0 8,000.0
0.0 7,900.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
8 July 2018
Exhibit 13: Increased expansion in Tier 4 cities which now Exhibit 14: 63% of the stores remain in UP and Bihar in
forms 10.5% of total stores in FY18 from 2.1% in FY17 FY18, like FY17
100.0 2.1
10.5
90.0
80.0
70.0 23
56.0
50.9
60.0
42
50.0
6
40.0
30.0
28.4 25.7 8
20.0
10.0 21
13.5 12.9
0.0
FY17 FY18
Metro and Tier I Tier II Tier III Tier IV UP Bihar Jharkhand Odisha Ot hers
10,000.0 31.0
40.0
8,000.0 30.0
30.0
6,000.0 29.0
20.0
4,000.0 28.0
0.0 - 26.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Revenues (INR mn) Revenue growth (%) (rhs) Gross margins (%)
Exhibit 17: Cost items as a % of sales Exhibit 18: EBITDA margin expanded by 240bps YoY in
12.0
FY18, however only 70bps higher than FY13 levels
12.0
10.0
8.0 10.0
6.0 8.0
4.0 6.0
2.0 4.0
-
2.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
8 July 2018
Exhibit 19: Stellar growth in profitability during FY18 Exhibit 20: RoCE and RoE is up by 992bps YoY and 763bps
900.0 YoY respectively in FY18
800.0 40.0
700.0 35.0
600.0 30.0
500.0 25.0
400.0
20.0
300.0
15.0
200.0
10.0
100.0
5.0
0.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 0.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
PAT (INR mn)
RoCE (% ) RoE (%)
Exhibit 21: Net working capital days is down to 55 days in Exhibit 22: Working capital improvement largely led by
FY18 from 57 days in FY17, sustaining improvement increase in payable days
100.0 160.0
90.0 140.0
80.0
120.0
70.0
60.0 100.0
50.0 80.0
40.0 60.0
30.0
40.0
20.0
10.0 20.0
0.0 0.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Net working capital days Inventory days (on COGS) Payable days (on COGS)
Exhibit 23: Core working capital as a % of sale remains Exhibit 24: CFO is down 6% YoY due to higher working
steady in FY18, though has come down over the years capital, though both FCFF and OCF remains strong
1,600.0 25.0 800.0
700.0
1,400.0
20.0 600.0
1,200.0 500.0
1,000.0 400.0
15.0
300.0
800.0
200.0
600.0 10.0
100.0
400.0 0.0
5.0 (100.0)
200.0
(200.0)
0.0 - (300.0)
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Core working capit al (INR mn) Core working capit al (% of sales) Cash flow from operation (INR mn) Free cash flow (INR mn)
8 July 2018
Exhibit 25: Company remains debt free Exhibit 26: Total company level capex per sq ft came down
500.0 in FY18 despite sharp store addition
400.0 2,500.0
300.0
200.0
2,000.0
100.0
0.0
1,500.0
(100.0)
(200.0)
(300.0) 1,000.0
(400.0)
(500.0) 500.0
(600.0)
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 0.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Net debt (INR mn)
Cash flow derived capex per sq ft (INR)
Source: Jefferies, company data
Source: Jefferies, company data
8 July 2018
Financials
Table 1: Profit and loss statement
Rs mn FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Net Sales 8,093 10,017 12,224 14,356 16,522
Cost of goods sold 5,712 7,028 8,303 9,733 11,202
as % of sales 70.6 70.2 67.9 67.8 67.8
Employee cost 623 783 984 1,120 1,289
as % of sales 7.7 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.8
Rental cost 400 452 526 632 738
as % of sales 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.5
Other expenses 737 908 1,083 1,292 1,475
as % of sales 9.1 9.1 8.9 9.0 8.9
Total Expenditure 7,472 9,170 10,896 12,777 14,703
EBITDA 621 848 1,328 1,579 1,818
EBITDA % 7.7 8.5 10.9 11.0 11.0
Depreciation 190 186 229 328 379
Other income 10 41 41 48 55
Interest expense 31 35 15 26 26
Extraordinary income/expense 12 - - - -
PBT 422 668 1,125 1,273 1,469
Tax 147 229 348 407 470
Tax rate % 34.8 34.3 30.9 32.0 32.0
PAT (Reported) 276 439 777 866 999
PAT (Adjusted) 263 439 777 866 999
Source: Jefferies estimates, company data
8 July 2018
Valuation (x)
PE 180.2 108.1 61.0 54.8 47.5
EV/EBITDA 76.4 55.7 35.3 29.3 25.1
EV/Sales 5.9 4.7 3.8 3.2 2.8
PBV 20.5 17.6 13.6 11.1 9.1
Profitability Ratios
ROCE % 17.9 25.0 34.9 33.4 31.5
ROE% 12.1 17.5 25.2 22.3 21.1
Turnover Ratios
Inventory in days 124 123 127 125 125
Debtor days - - - - -
Creditors turnover days 55 66 72 70 70
Wkg. Capital cycle 69 57 55 55 55
Source: Jefferies estimates, company data
8 July 2018
Company Description
V-Mart
V-Mart operates in the value retail format primarily in the tier 2 and 3 cities of India offering apparels, general merchandise and household
goods. “Price Less Fashion” is the main motto to company focusing on providing the best value to the consumer in smaller towns. The
company has a higher presence in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh where it has been following the cluster model of expansion.
Company Valuation/Risks
V-Mart
Given improved outlook for recovery in rural growth led by recent MSP hikes and likely third consecutive year of normal monsoon we increase
our target multiple to 25x FY20 EBITDA (from 22x earlier) to arrive at PT of INR2,580 (from INR2,200 earlier). We maintain HOLD as we believe
that valuations at CMP (27x EV/EBITDA FY20E) outweigh the fundamentals.. Upside risk: 1) Strong and sustained SSSG which leads to further
improvement in margins, 2) sharp increase in rural spending, especially in U.P and Bihar; and 3) any M&A activity in the company resulting
in uptrend in valuations; Downside risk: sharp fall in SSSG due to increasing competition.
Analyst Certification:
I, Tanmay Sharma, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject
security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
I, Varun Lohchab, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
or views expressed in this research report.
Registration of non-US analysts: Tanmay Sharma, CFA is employed by Jefferies India Private Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not
registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and
therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading
securities held by a research analyst.
Registration of non-US analysts: Varun Lohchab is employed by Jefferies India Private Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not
registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and
therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading
securities held by a research analyst.
As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives
compensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as
appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority
of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.
Valuation Methodology
Jefferies' methodology for assigning ratings may include the following: market capitalization, maturity, growth/value, volatility and expected total
return over the next 12 months. The price targets are based on several methodologies, which may include, but are not restricted to, analyses of market
risk, growth rate, revenue stream, discounted cash flow (DCF), EBITDA, EPS, cash flow (CF), free cash flow (FCF), EV/EBITDA, P/E, PE/growth, P/CF,
8 July 2018
P/FCF, premium (discount)/average group EV/EBITDA, premium (discount)/average group P/E, sum of the parts, net asset value, dividend returns,
and return on equity (ROE) over the next 12 months.
Notes: Each box in the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents actions over the past three years in which an analyst initiated on a
company, made a change to a rating or price target of a company or discontinued coverage of a company.
Legend:
I: Initiating Coverage
D: Dropped Coverage
B: Buy
H: Hold
UP: Underperform
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Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300.
8 July 2018
Distribution of Ratings
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. JIL Mkt Serv./Past 12
Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent
BUY 1124 53.86% 69 6.14% 15 1.33%
HOLD 831 39.82% 19 2.29% 1 0.12%
UNDERPERFORM 132 6.32% 1 0.76% 0 0.00%
8 July 2018
8 July 2018
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