What Can The Data On Late Survival of Australian Megafauna Tell Us About The Cause of Their Extinction?
What Can The Data On Late Survival of Australian Megafauna Tell Us About The Cause of Their Extinction?
What Can The Data On Late Survival of Australian Megafauna Tell Us About The Cause of Their Extinction?
Viewpoint
Abstract
[Roberts et al. 2001a. New ages for the last Australian megafauna: continent-wide extinction about 46,000 years ago. Science 292,
1888–1892] concluded that the extinction of Australia’s late Pleistocene megafauna was an abrupt event that took place about 46 ka
ago throughout the continent. By placing the extinctions soon after the arrival of people in Australia but before climate changes
associated with the Last Glacial Maximum, this study implicated human impact as cause. However, the study was controversial
because it excluded evidence, mainly from archaeological sites containing disarticulated megafauna remains, for survival of some
megafauna well past 46 ka ago. Here, I ask how our interpretation of the extinctions would be changed if this evidence were
accepted. Contrary to climate-change models of extinction, the young megafauna sites are not concentrated in mesic refuges around
the coast. These sites do suggest that relatively small-bodied megafauna species were the last to disappear, as predicted by a version
of the overkill hypothesis. More work is needed to test the evidence for late survival of megafauna species in Australia, but at present
this evidence supports overkill, not climate change, as the cause of the extinctions.
r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.06.006
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2168 C.N. Johnson / Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 2167–2172
themselves. The youngest age obtained by Roberts et al. ages less than 46 ka. Their critics object that this
for articulated megafauna remains was 46 ka. Statistical criterion for selection of sites ignored other evidence
modelling of the distribution of ages gave an estimate of that should have been used to determine whether
46.4 ka for the extinction event (see also Brook and sediments containing megafauna remains had been re-
Bowman, 2002). This has been supported by dating of worked, and defended the integrity of the Cuddie
megafauna from Wet Cave at Naracoorte in South Springs stratigraphy in particular (Field and Fullagar,
Australia showing disappearance of megafauna slightly 2001; see rejoinders by Roberts et al., 2001b and
before 45.3 ka (Pate et al., 2002), and is consistent with a Gillespie and David, 2001, and subsequent work by
study by Miller et al. (1999), who used a combination of Trueman et al., 2005).
methods to age eggshell of the extinct giant bird Megafauna remains in archaeological sites are very
Genyornis newtoni in the arid Lake Eyre region of likely to be disarticulated because of handling by people;
south-central Australia and showed that it was common to exclude sites with disarticulated remains is, therefore,
in the area between 130 and 50 ka, but had disappeared effectively to exclude all archaeological sites. However,
by 45 ka. such sites might be expected to provide the best
information on the duration of overlap of people and
megafauna. Most archaeological sites in Australia are
2. The controversy over megafauna ages younger than 45 ka, so their exclusion from the analysis
closes off a potentially rich source of data on late
Roberts et al. were criticised because they had survival of megafauna. Brook and Bowman (2002) re-
excluded evidence for megafauna survival well past analysed Roberts et al.’s data and found that sites with
46 ka (Field and Fullagar, 2001; Wroe and Field, 2001; disarticulated remains were significantly younger (med-
Wroe et al., 2004). This evidence comes mainly from ian age ¼ 37.5 ka) than sites with articulated remains
archaeological sites, and at one of these—Cuddie (median ¼ 63 ka).
Springs—there is substantial stratigraphic overlap of Table 1 lists sites at which now-extinct megafauna
cultural material and megafauna, indicating at least have been dated to less than 46 ka. The list excludes sites
6000 years of coexistence (Field and Dodson, 1999). where late survival was originally claimed but where
Roberts et al. obtained ages younger than 46 ka for subsequent work has shown the dating to be erroneous
megafauna-bearing sediments at Cuddie Springs, but (note that this explains the absence of some sites, such as
discarded them because the remains were disarticulated, Lancefield Swamp (Joe Dortch, pers. commun.), that
as they did for 11 sites in all, including another four with have figured prominently in the extinction debate in the
Table 1
Sites at with evidence possibly indicating survival of megafauna after 46 ka in Australia and New Guinea
Mooki River 42 T. carnifex, Palorchestes azael, Phascolonus gigas, Diprotodon Roberts et al. (2001a, b)
optatum
Devil’s Lairc,d 30.7 Procoptodon brownoreum, Balme et al. (1978)
26.5 Protemnodon brehus
Tight Entrance Cave 33 Simosthenurus occidentalis Roberts et al (2001a, b)
Cuddie Springsc 30 Diprotodon optatum, Sthenurus andersoni, Procoptodon sp., Trueman et al. (2005)
Genyornis newtoni
Lake George 28.7 Procoptodon goliah Sanson et al. (1980)
Lake Tandouc 29.6 Procoptodon sp. (probably goliah) Hope et al. (1983)
Cloggs Cavec 28 Simosthenurus occidentalis Flood (1974)
Lake Menindeec 31 Propleopus oscillans, Phasocolonus gigas, Sthenurus sp., Tedford (1955), Tindale (1964)
Procoptodon sp., Protemnodon sp., Diprotodon sp.
Lime Springsc 24 Diprotodon sp., Protemnodon sp., Procoptodon sp., Stehenurus sp. Gorecki et al. (1984)
Kelangurr Cave 16 Maokopia ronaldi, Protemnodon hopei Roberts et al (2001a, b)
Seton rock shelterc 20 Procoptodon gilli Hope et al. (1977)
Main Cave, Montagu 13 Simosthenurus occidentalis, Zaglossus sp. Goede and Bada (1985)
Nombe Rock shelterc 14.5 Protemnodon nombe Flannery et al. (1983)
11.5 Protemnodon tumbuna
a
Radiocarbon dates calibrated using the University of Cologne Radiocarbon Laboratory on-line age converter (www.calpal-online.de/). Where a
stratigraphic age range was given, the youngest age is shown.
b
Not including species considered to be large late Pleistocene forms of living species (Macropus titan, Dendrolagus noibano etc).
c
Sites with human occupation.
d
Refers only to layers above those also dated by Roberts et al.’s (2001a, b).
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C.N. Johnson / Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 2167–2172 2169
past). All ages apply to disarticulated remains. There are Both features meant that a small rate of killing could
currently 14 such sites, and at 10 of these there is have driven populations to extinction, but might have
evidence of human occupation, including almost all the done so over a long period of time. In this model, the
younger ones, with stratigraphic overlap with mega- species with the greatest demographic sensitivity to over-
fauna remains at five (Devil’s Lair, Lake Menindee, harvest—generally, the largest animals—would have
Cuddie Springs, Lime Springs and Nombe Rock Shelter; gone extinct soonest, while smaller-bodied species with
overlap has also been reported at Keilor in Victoria higher growth rates would have persisted longer. So, this
(Duncan, 2001) and Lembudu Cave, Aru Islands hypothesis predicts that (1) extinctions may have been
(O’Connor et al., 2002), but without precise dates). spread over a long time, and if so, large-bodied species
Two questions are raised by these young ages. First, would have gone extinct earlier than small-bodied
are they reliable? And second, what would it mean for species, but (2) there should have been no spatial
our understanding of the late Pleistocene extinctions if pattern in the timing of extinctions, because most of
they were correct? So far, the controversy has focused them would have happened well after the human
on the first question. Thus, the debate between Field and population occupied the whole of the continent.
Fullagar (2001), Wroe and Field (2001) and Trueman et
al. (2005) on the one hand, and Roberts et al. (2001b) 3.3. Extinction due to increased aridity
and Gillespie and David (2001) on the other, turned on
the evidence for and against re-working of sediments at It has often been argued that increased aridity close to
Cuddie Springs. Eventually we will need a systematic the end of the Pleistocene may at least have contributed
evaluation of the evidence for re-working of sediments to the megafauna extinctions. Horton’s (1984,2000)
at all of the sites listed in Table 1, and where possible model of this process is the most explicit. He argued
validation of ages by direct dating of bone. This may that as aridity expanded from the centre of the continent
well show that many of the ages listed in Table 1 are too towards the coasts, habitats suitable for megafauna
young, but in this paper I sidestep the problem of the species retreated and were compressed and fragmented
reliability of the post-46 ka ages and tackle the second of around the margins of the continent. The area of habitat
the two questions stated above. My goal is to test available to megafauna species would have been further
whether the published data indicating late survival of restricted by their need to remain within range of
megafauna would provide evidence for or against drinking water. Compression of populations into small
particular hypotheses of cause, if those data were areas of refuge habitat would have caused local
accurate. extinctions, and the repetition of these events at many
locations eventually resulted in the total extinction of
species.
3. What if the post 46 ka ages are right? This hypothesis predicts that local extinctions would
have happened first in the centre of the continent but
Three hypotheses of the cause of megafauna extinc- that some species would have persisted near the coast in
tions are sufficiently explicit to make clear predictions habitat refuges for some time after they disappeared
on their timing and pattern, as follows. from the arid centre, and that the losses would have
been spread over a period of several thousand years in
3.1. Overhunting by blitzkrieg the approach to the LGM.
35
Susceptibility to fire-induced habitat changes would
J
presumably have depended heavily on details of the
30
ecology of individual species, with habitat specialists
25
more vulnerable. Since large-bodied species are often
20 more general in their habitat requirements than small
15 species, it would seem difficult to explain the pattern
10 shown in Fig. 2 as an effect of fire-induced habitat
5 change. Therefore, these results give a poor fit to the fire
10 100 1000 10000 hypothesis.
Body mass (kg)
Fig. 1. Relationship between body mass and dates on remains of 5. A reconciliation of the conflicting ages
species of extinct Pleistocene megafauna from Australia and New
Guinea, for remains o46 ka. Data on body mass taken from Johnson
and Prideaux (2004). Data sources are listed in Table 1; megafauna
Roberts et al. (2001a) claimed that their dating study
occurrences were included only where identification was to species. documented continent-wide extinction at 46 ka. If even
some of the ages in Table 1 were eventually accepted as
reliable, then it would seem that this conclusion was
50 incorrect. But the conclusion that articulated remains
45 disappear from the fossil record by 46 ka appears sound,
Age (000’s of years)
40
and agrees with the disappearance of Genyornis egg-
35
shells documented by Miller et al. (1999). It seems that
30
25
something did change 46 ka ago. In fact, it may be
20 possible to reconcile the Roberts et al. and Miller et al.
15 studies with the evidence from archaeological sites for
10 post-46 ka survival, as follows.
5 Articulated megafauna remains are found in two
0 kinds of sites: deep caves that acted as pitfall traps, and
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
deposits around the edges of lakes, swamps or rivers.
Distance from coast (km) The latter kind of site preserves remains of animals that
Fig. 2. Relationship between distance to coastlines and youngest dates were initially trapped in mud and submerged in shallow
on extinct Pleistocene megafauna at sites in Australia, for sites dated water so that their remains were not disturbed by
o46 ka; species and sites as listed in Table 1. scavengers. Both kinds of sites acted as passive traps,
and would have preserved animals in proportion to their
abundance in the surrounding environment. The prob-
of this lower bound by calculating the regression using ability that an animal will be preserved as a fossil in one
only the youngest age for each species (F 1;14 ¼ 5:75, of these situations and eventually recovered by a
Po0:05), and this was used to find the position of the palaeontologist is very low, so that low-density popula-
lower bound in Fig. 1. Fig. 2 shows that there is no tions of megafauna might well be invisible in the fossil
tendency for sites with more recent megafauna remains record from such sites. Therefore, abrupt disappearance
to be found nearer to the coast. The regressions on of articulated remains could represent either the abrupt
distance from the coastline of the youngest dates for extinction of those species, or sudden declines in their
sites with megafauna was not significant (F 1;10 ¼ 0:06, abundance to levels that determined a very low
P ¼ 0:89). probability of recovery of fossils. This reasoning also
Some authors have argued that human use of fire may applies to the Genyornis eggshells dated by Miller et al.
have contributed to megafauna extinctions (Jones, 1968; (1999). They dated shell fragments from non-archae-
Merrilees, 1968; Miller et al., 1999), but this hypothesis ological aeolian deposits; these collections would have
does not make such clear predictions on the spatial accumulated passively with low probabilities of pre-
pattern and timing of extinctions. Presumably, if fire- servation and recovery, and they provide low power to
induced habitat changes had caused the extinctions the detect populations at low abundance. The signal in
process might have been asynchronous throughout the Miller et al.’s data can also be interpreted either as an
continent. One could argue that the drier habitats of extinction event or a sudden decline in abundance.
inland Australia might have been the first to be affected In contrast, megafauna remains in archaeological sites
so that extinctions would have begun earliest there; but are very likely to have been actively accumulated, by
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C.N. Johnson / Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 2167–2172 2171
people. Archaeological collections may therefore have extinctions and increases in aridity. Whatever view one
much greater power to detect species present in the takes of the post 46 ka ages, it seems clear that
environment at low abundance, if such species were megafauna populations declined dramatically over the
being actively sought out by hunters. So, the ages whole continent between about 50 and 46 ka ago, and
provided by Roberts et al. (2001a, b) and Miller et al. direct human impact is the factor most likely to have
(1999) on the one hand, and the dates from archae- caused this.
ological sites indicating more recent survival on the
other, are both consistent with the following scenario:
before 50 ka, large vertebrates were abundant in the Acknowledgements
Australian environment, but something drove their
abundances down to drastically low levels by 46 ka, I thank David Bowman, Barry Brook, Gavin
such that they became effectively invisible in the non- Prideaux, Bert Roberts and Stephen Wroe for helpful
archaeological fossil record. Some species persisted at comments on the manuscript.
low abundances, perhaps in restricted geographic
ranges, after this event, with final extinction of remnant
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