Indian Paper Industry –

February 12th, 2018 I Industry Research

Overview

India’s paper industry is expected to grow at 6 to 7 percent year over

year,5 with the packaging industry poised to grow at 22 to 25 percent
annually.6 Advances in education, a fast-growing middle class, strong
growth in sectors like fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG)—
pharmaceuticals, liquor, cosmetics, and the like—and organized retailing
are the main drivers of demand for paper and packaging products.
Per capita consumption of paper in India remains woefully low at 22 lbs.7
(see Figure 1), compared to 770 lbs. in the United States and 363 lbs. in the
European Union in 2010.8 Per capita consumption of paper has almost
doubled
in the last decade. India has 15 percent of the world's population, but
consumes less than 2 percent of the world’s paper.9
The upstream market demand for paper products, such as tissue paper,
tea bags, filter paper, lightweight online
coated paper, medical-grade coated paper, etc., is growing as well. These
developments are expected to give a significant boost to the growth of
the industry.
Meeting the growing demand will likely require a correspondingly
significant investment in both new machines and upgrading of existing
facilities. Currently, a small percentage of the demand is being met by
imports due to the inability to produce certain segments profitably in India.
India also allows 100 percent foreign direct investment (FDI) in this
sector, making it an attractive landscape for foreign investment — one
of the keys to growing the paper industry.

As per IPMA’s (Indian Paper Mills Association) estimates, this

industry contributes approximately Rs 4,500 crore to the
exchequer and provides employment to over 5 lakh people across
approximately 750 paper mills. The broad characteristics of the
industry are that it is capital, energy and water intensive and
highly fragmented (small units account for ~60% of the industry
size).

The paper industry is classified under four segments: Printing &

Writing (P&W), Packaging Paper & Board, Specialty Papers &
Others, and Newsprint.

Pulp (over 40% of raw material cost) is the primary raw material
used for manufacturing of paper, and is obtained from wood,
wastepaper, agriculture residues etc. Wood accounts for 30-35%
of raw material usage, while wastepaper and agri-residues
account for 45-50% and 20-22%, respectively.
The demand drivers include
1) Rising income levels,
2) Growing per capita expenditure,
3) A likely pick-up from the education
sector,
J&K
4)Requirement of better quality packaging
of FMCG products marketed through
organized retail, and
HP
5) increasing preference for ready-to-eat
foods.
WB
On the other hand, challenges include
1) Access to quality and cost competitive
raw material whose prices have started GJ OR
increasing recently),
2) Competition from imports and MH
3) Technology obsolescence.
AP

Indicates locations of mills

KR
TN Indicates forest areas

Concentration of paper mills

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India’s share in global paper demand, though small is growing as demand in the western nations contracts, while
domestic demand in India grows at a steady pace
Globally over 400 million tonnes of paper and paper products are consumed. The world's three largest paper producing
countries are China, the United States, and Japan (these three countries account for approximately half of the world's
total paper production), while India accounts for a small but growing share of the global market. The global paper and
pulp mills industry has contracted slightly over the past five years, primarily due to the shift to digital media and
paperless communication across most developed economies. However, demand in emerging markets has partially
offset the decline by driving increased demand for paper used in packaging materials.

Chart 1: India's share of the Global Market

Chart 2: Per Capita Consumption of Paper (kg)
229

Global,
India, 4% 74
96% 57

13

US China India World

Source: Industry, IPMA

The Indian Paper & Paperboard industry is one of the oldest organised manufacturing industries in India and the first
paper mill was started in 1812 in Serampore, West Bengal. The industry accounts for approximately 4% of the world’s
production of paper. IPMA (Indian Paper Mills Association) estimates the industry turnover at approximately Rs 50,000
crore which year contribution of Rs 4,500 crore to the exchequer while providing employment to over 5 lakh people
across approximately 750 paper mills.

Chart 3: Domestic Paper Demand (in mn tonnes)

16
12.8

9.3

FY08 FY13 FY18

Source: Industry, IPMA

The domestic demand in India grew from 9.3 million tonnes in FY08 to 15.3 million tonnes in FY16 at a CAGR of 6.4%. In
spite of the sustained growth witnessed by the industry, the per capita paper consumption in India stands at a little
over 13 kg, is way behind the global average of 57 kg and 200 kg in North America.
The broad characteristics of the industry are:
- it is capital, energy & water intensive and

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- highly fragmented (small units account for ~60% of the industry size). The large players focus primarily on the high
value added segments such as copier paper, coated packaging paper & board, while the smaller companies address
low value added segments such as creamwove, kraft paper etc.
The paper mills are concentrated in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh
and Gujarat. The paper mills use a variety of raw material viz. wood, bamboo, recycled fiber, bagasse, wheat straw, rice
husk, etc. The geographical location of the mill often determines the type of raw material used. Most mills in the
northern and western regions of India depend heavily on agricultural residues and waste paper as their raw material.
Pulp & paper production in southern and eastern regions uses wood and bamboo as raw materials. The proximity and
assured availability of forest resources in the vicinity of the plant location and other factors like availability of water,
forest policy of the state also influence the location of the manufacturing facility. Overall, the composition of raw
material usage is approximately wood (35%), recycled fibre (40%) and agro-residues (25%).
Industry Segmentation: Packaging paper & board segment demand is growing at a faster pace as compared to
Printing & Writing and the Newsprint segments
The paper industry is classified into four segments, Printing & Writing (P&W), Packaging Paper & Board, Specialty
Papers & Others, and Newsprint. The chart depicts the variation of the consumption across the segments globally and
in India. The table below illustrates the sub-segments and movement in share of total demand over the years.

Chart 4: India vs. World - Segment wise consumption

51% 49%
Global India
31%
20% 17% 16%
12%
4%

P&W Packaging Speciality Newsprint

In Million tonnes
Table 1: Segment Breakdown and Movement
% Share % Share % Share
Segments Type Variety FY08 FY13 FY16
FY08 FY13 FY16
Creamwove 1.4 1.7 1.8 15% 13% 12%
UWF Maplitho
Printing & 1.1 1.7 2.1 12% 13% 14%
Copier
Writing CWF Art paper/ board
(P&W) 0.3 0.6 0.8 4% 5% 5%
CM LWC, Pigment Paper, etc
P&W total 2.9 4.0 4.7 31% 32% 31%
Newsprint - - 1.9 2.4 2.5 20% 19% 16%
Container Linerboard, fluting
Packaging Carton Folding Boxboard, Solid 1.7 2.7 3.1 18% 21% 20%
board Bleached board
Paper &
Board Kraft Kraft-liner / Test-liner 2.6 3.3 4.4 28% 26% 29%
Packaging paper & board total 4.3 6.1 7.5 46% 47% 49%
Specialty &
Tissue and other industrial papers 0.2 0.3 0.6 3% 2% 4%
Others
Total Paper Demand 9.3 12.8 15.3
Notes: Uncoated Wood free (UWF), Coated Wood free (CWF) and Coated Mechanical (CM).
Source: Industry, IPMA
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Domestic Demand for Paper is expected to Continue Growing at a Robust Pace with Packaging Paper & Board and
Specialty Segments registering the Fastest Growth Rates

Table 2: Segment wise Demand (million tonnes)

CAGR % Share % Share
Segments FY16 FY19P
(FY16-19P) FY16 FY19P
Creamwove 1.8 1.9 2.0% 12% 10%
Maplitho & Copier 2.1 2.4 5.0% 14% 13%
Coated Paper & Others 0.8 1.0 7.0% 5% 5%
P&W 4.7 5.3 4.2% 31% 29%
Recycled Duplex Board 2.5 3.2 8.0% 16% 17%
Virgin Boards 0.6 0.8 12.0% 4% 5%
Packaging Board 3.1 4.0 8.8% 20% 22%
Packaging Papers (Kraft) 4.4 5.7 9.0% 29% 31%
Packaging Paper & Board 7.5 9.7 8.9% 49% 52%
Specialty Papers & Others 0.6 0.8 12.0% 4% 5%
Newsprint 2.5 2.7 2.5% 16% 15%
Total Paper Demand 15.3 18.5 6.6%
Source: Industry, IPMA,

For the Indian paper industry, strong economic growth has been accompanied by equally robust demand for paper. The
demand drivers and growth triggers have come from a combination of factors such as rising income levels, growing per
capita expenditure, rapid urbanization and a larger proportion of earning population which is expected to lead
consumption and there is enormous potential for the paper industry in the country
Printing and Writing segment demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.2% and reach 5.3 million tonnes in FY19.
The demand is expected to grow on account of an anticipated pick-up from the education sector with improving literacy
rates and growing enrolment as well as increasing number of schools and colleges.

 Packaging paper & board segment caters to industries such as FMCG, food & beverage, pharmaceutical, textiles, etc.
Demand for Packaging Paper & Board segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.9% and reach 9.7 million tonnes
in FY19 due to factors such as increased urbanization, requirement of better quality packaging of FMCG products
marketed through organized retail, and increasing preference for ready-to-eat foods.

 Improving literacy rates, rising circulation and an increasing number of newspapers and magazines is expected to support
growth in newsprint demand which is expected to reach 2.7 million tonnes in FY19.

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Increasing Urbanization

Chart 7: Distribution of Indian population (%)

(

76.7 74.3 72.2 68.8 67.3

80.1

23.3 25.7 27.8 31.2 32.7

19.9
100.0 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2015 E
80.0 Urban Population Rural Population
Source: IBEF
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0

A majority of India still lives in ‘villages’. This statement no doubt holds true but the figures suggest that there has been
a paradigm shift of the Indian populace in terms of rural–urban divide. The aspirations of higher income, higher
standard of living etc. has drawn more and more people from villages to settle in towns and cities. This transition from
rural to urban areas has led to an increase in the demand for goods (owing to higher income and ever-expanding
needs) and has also shifted the consumption pattern.
Widening spread of education and increase in literacy rate
Increase in the number of colleges and institution, rising enrolment numbers, rising literacy (continued government
spending on education through the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan) is expected to lead to an increased expenditure on
textbooks, notebooks and other assorted paper products thereby driving demand. Additionally, with higher literacy
levels, circulation of other print media, such as newspapers is also positively impacted.

Chart 8: Literacy Rate (%) Chart 9: No. of Colleges

75
73 42,047
41,435
69 40,760
39,671
63
37,204

2001 2011 2015 2016

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

Chart 10: Enrolment in Higher Education (in mn)

18.5
2007-072016-17
11.0
6.0 7.5
5.2
1.2 2.7
0.3
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Central State Private Open and Distance

Learning

Source: IBEF
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Rising circulation and number of newspapers and magazines

As per the Audit Bureau of Circulation (ABC), the circulation of print media reached 62 million copies a day in 2016,
implying a 10 year CAGR of nearly 5%. Indian language newspapers primarily contributed to this growth with Hindi,
Telugu and Kannada language publications growing at a CAGR of 8.76%, 8.28% and 6.40% respectively. On the other
hand, English publications grew at a CAGR of 2.87% in the same period. Further as per ABC, the circulation of Indian
dailies grew at 12% between 2013 and 2015, while dailies in countries such as Australia, France, Germany, the US, and
Japan witnessed a 3% - 6% decline.
P&W segment to witness slower capacity addition, while Packaging paper & board segment to witness ramp up

Chart 11: Planned Capacity (in million tonnes)

12.5 12.3 8%
12.0 12.0 12.1
12.0
6%
11.5 11.3
11.1
11.0 10.9 4%
10.7 5.7%
10.5
10.5
0.4% 1.6% 2%
2.2%
10.0 1.9% 0.4%
1.5%1.9%
9.5 0%
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Outstanding Capacity of Paper & Newsprint (in million tonnes) YoY Growth (%)

Source: CMIE

After witnessing a growing rate of capacity addition in the early part of the decade, the planned domestic capacity
(greenfield and brownfield) additions for paper and newsprint has slowed down, primarily due to a shortage of its key
raw material i.e. pulp wood and rising prices of local waste paper. This has been partially mitigated by the agroforestry
initiatives. However, the industry has been requesting for a policy to allow access to degraded forest land for paper
mills to raise pulp wood plantations to enable sustainable source of raw materials.
On the other hand, driven by the increasing demand primarily from the e-commerce industry, Packaging paper & board
segment is expected to witness significant capacity addition across the country.
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Challenges

Access to quality and cost competitive raw material

India is a wood fibre deficient country as the Government of India does not permit industrial plantations in the country
and inadequate raw material availability domestically is a major constraint for the paper industry. Additionally, the
recovery rate of wastepaper in India is quite low (~30%) due to lack of an effective collection mechanism. With issues
like availability of quality raw material at competitive prices, the players depend on the imports of pulp, wastepaper
and even pulpwood to meet their raw material needs and often have to pay premium for availing them thereby
impacting profitability and capacity addition. To alleviate this significant challenge, the Government of India could
frame a policy to allow access to degraded forest land for paper mills to raise pulp wood plantations for increasing pulp
availability and reduce import dependence; further the collection mechanism needs to be strengthened to increase
usage of wastepaper.
Competition from imports
Imports accounts for over 20% of the paper consumption in India. The domestic paper manufacturers are less
competitive against imports, given superior quality and lower prices of imported paper. As per IPMA, paper from
ASEAN countries that is produced from raw wood is available at about USD 40 per tonne, as against USD 110 per tonne
in India. Rising imports at predatory prices from surplus countries like China, has been a major concern for local players
in India. On account of cheaper imports domestic industry has faced challenges in pricing its products. An anti-dumping
probe into cheap import of ‘uncoated paper’ from Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore has been initiated by the
Government as the Directorate General of Anti-Dumping And Allied Duties (DGAD) has found ‘sufficient prima facie
evidence’ of dumping of uncoated paper following complaints from some domestic companies.
Technology
As the Indian paper industry is largely fragmented with lower capacity with an individual paper mill, it is also prone to
using outdated technology. Resultantly, it is estimated that both the raw material as well as the power consumption is
higher as compared to a modern paper mill. Adoption of new technology by domestic paper producers would lead to
emergence of more competitiveness in critical areas including quantifiable increase in productivity, quality
improvement with reduced cost, improvement in energy efficiency and better compliance with environmental
protection legislation and safeguards for eco-sustainability of the products.
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Rapidly increasing Imports along with steady Exports and domestic production indicates incremental domestic
demand is being met through imports

Chart 12: Imports - Paper (excl. newsprint) Chart 13: Exports - Paper (excl. newsprint)
3 8 275
69 72 60
64 63 66 5657
60 6 52 53
2 41 46 50
39
4 1
1.3 1.4 2.6
1 1.1 0.72 0.79 25
1.1 0.62 0.68
0.9 2 0.55 0.55 0.58
0.7
0 0 0 0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17
Paper (excl. newsprint) (mn tonnes) Paper (excl. newsprint) (mn tonnes) Paper (excl. newsprint) (Rs kg)
Paper (excl. newsprint) (Rs kg)
Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence
and Statistic, CMIE

As per Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) data, total imports in FY17 were up 36%
over FY16. As far as ASEAN imports were concerned, there was a surge of 67% in FY17 numbers over FY16. Imports
from China have increased by 44%. Imports reached 1.1 million tonnes in the first half of 2017-18 as against 650
thousand tonnes imported in the first half of 2016-17, indicating an increase of approximately 69%. This increase in
imports has been led by the duty-free import from ASEAN countries (which doubled from 80,000 tonnes to 210,000
tonnes during the said period) coupled with unavailability of raw materials domestically.
The domestic newsprint industry is less competitive against the imported one, given nil customs duty imposition on the
imports of newsprint (The 2.5% customs duty on paper in India was brought down to zero; as per the terms of the free
trade agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)). With imported price realisations remaining
steady, the share of imported newsprint in the total domestic newsprint consumption increased sharply from 50%
during FY13 to 60% during FY16.

Chart 14: Imports - Newsprint Chart 15: Exports - Newsprint

2,000 100 15 80

1,500 1,432 1,497 1,584 80 11.0

60
1,250 1,241 1,379 1,336 10 9.9
8.6 9.6
60 51
1,000 39 40 37 40
35
40 30
39 38 36 5 33
500 30 35 35 4.4 20
35 20 3.8
5.1
0 0 0 0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Newsprint ('000 tonnes) Newsprint (Rs kg) Newsprint ('000 tonnes) Newsprint (Rs kg)

Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistic

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Paper and Paper Products Price Movement

Table 3: Domestic Prices – Kolkata (Rs. / kg)

Year Newsprint Chromo Maplitho Duplex HWC Board Duplex LWC Board
Paper (60 gsm) (296-350 gsm) (296-350 gsm)
2011-12 31 67 55 50.7 39.1
2012-13 31 64.4 59 48.5 37.5
2013-14 36 65.4 61.6 49.3 40.1
2014-15 39 65 67.5 52.5 44
2015-16 39 65 67.5 52.5 44
2016-17 39 65 67.5 52.5 44
Source: CMIE

Table 4: WPI (2011-12 series) – Index Movement

FY13 FY17 CAGR
Man. of paper and paper products 103.6 113.6 2.3%
a. Man. of pulp, paper and paperboard 103.3 117.7 3.3%
Newsprint 105.1 112.5 1.7%
Paper for printing & writing 102.7 119.3 3.8%
Kraft paper 102.0 117.7 3.6%
Tissue paper 103.4 125.1 4.9%
b. Man. of corrug. paper and paperboard 107.7 114.7 1.6%
Corrugated paper board 100.6 119.9 4.5%
Paper carton/box 100.7 127.5 6.1%
c. Manufacture of other articles 99.9 105.9 1.5%
Duplex paper 96.1 98.8 0.7%
Map litho paper 105.4 118.9 3.1%
Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, Govt. of India, Ministry of Commerce & Industry

The prices of various varieties of paper in Kolkata market remained unchanged in 2015-16, which is likely to have
continued in 2016-17. Paper companies did not undertake price hikes because of factors such as competition from
imports, stabilisation in wood prices and lower power & fuel cost. Nonetheless, paper prices are projected to rise
marginally in 2017-18. Even though stiff competition from imports is likely to persist, an anticipated rise in wood prices
along with higher power & fuel cost would compel paper manufacturers to undertake price hikes.

Raw Material Scenario

Pulp is the primary raw material used for manufacturing of paper, and is obtained through processing of fibers
separated from wood, wastepaper, agriculture residues etc. Indian paper mills are categorized based on raw materials
used by them in the manufacture of paper - wood/forest based mills, agro-based mills and wastepaper based mills.
Wood accounts for 30-35% of production, while wastepaper and agri-residues account for 45-50% and 20-22%,
respectively. India has a total land area of 3.3 million sq km with forests covering only 0.7 million sq km. About 78% of
the total land area is non-forest area. With diminishing forest resources and limitations on enlarging man-made
forests, there is scarcity of raw material for paper mills. To counter the issue of wood deficit, Indian paper companies
gave thrust to initiatives like agro forestry which have now started yielding results.
Due to the limited availability of wood, agro-based raw materials and waste paper are generally used as substitutes for
manufacturing paper. However, a majority of pulp and paper mills integrate their operations to various options of raw
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materials like wood, bamboo, agro-residues, wastepaper and market pulp. In the backdrop of issues pertaining to raw
material availability and quality being faced in India; the players depend on the imports for meeting their raw material
needs, and often have to pay premium for availing them.

FACTORS FAVOURING INVESTMENT HIGH GROWTH AND GROWTH POTENTIAL

 Growth in the education sector

 Increased corporate activity and change in lifestyle
 Growth in the press publications
 Increased demand for packaging
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Category Type Issue

Wood Hardwood - Shortage of wood
Bamboo - Shortage of bamboo
Imported wood - Volatile prices
Recycled Paper Domestic - Low domestic recovery
- Low quality of domestic recovered paper
Imported - Volatile prices
- Import duty on imported recycled paper
Agri-residues Bagasse - Limited availability due to use for electricity cogeneration
- Seasonality
- Environmental Investments
Cereal Straw - Seasonality
- Environmental Investments

Non-wood fibre as a source for paper manufacturing: According to industry experts, agricultural residue is more sustainable
for paper manufacturing as compared to wood fibre. Certain agricultural residue pulps take less time to process than wood
pulps indicating that agricultural-based paper requires less energy & water and fewer chemicals. Bagasse and grain straws are
the main agricultural residues used by paper industry. High availability of agricultural residues and various financial incentives
provided by the government in the past lead to increased usage of agriculture residues fibre for paper production. For a
variety of reasons including seasonal availability, problems with chemical recovery, brightness of the pulp etc, non-wood fibre
sources account for a very small portion of global pulp production. Still it is believed that agro-based paper manufacturing is
extremely cost-competitive and highly environmental-friendly than wood pulp, resulting in lower cost of production and
could be a sustainable competitive advantage for companies.

Chemicals are also one of the major cost drivers of paper and the degree of chemical usage depends upon the raw-
material used in the paper-making process. There are a number of chemicals required to be added, particularly in the
pulping and bleaching stage of paper production. Major chemicals used are chlorine, sodium chlorate, caustic soda,
sodium sulphate, sodium sulphide, pulping aids, chlorine dioxide, oxygen, calcium hypochlorite, ozone and hydrogen
peroxide. The other auxiliary materials, such as dyes, starch, clay and resin are less significant because of the relatively
small quantities of usage.
Recently paper companies have witnessed an increase in raw material costs as international pulp prices have
reportedly increased from $650 a tonne around three months ago to $780 a tonne. Further, chemical prices and coal
prices have also increased (imported as well as domestic). Consequently, companies are expected to increase prices to
maintain margins.
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Appendix

Typical paper manufacturing process

Paper manufacturing process by type of raw-material

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Packaging Paper & Board Segments

Category Main Varieties Applications

It is primarily made from recycled fibre-based paper. Used for transportation
packaging for containment and safety of goods during storage, handling and
Kraft paper
transportation. Organized retail market is one of the key users of containerboard
papers.
Kraft-liner Made from virgin unbleached softwood kraft pulp
Test-liner Predominantly made from recycled fibre based paper
Fluting (Medium) Made from semi chemical fibres pulp or recycled fibre
It is mainly used for flexible packaging products to facilitate protection of goods
Packaging Board
and tool for marketing strategy, etc
Folding box-board It is used for end-products requiring lower quality cartons
(such as detergent packs).
Solid-bleached It includes foodboard, cupstock, liquid packaging board,
sulphate ovenable tray
Solid-unbleached Popularly used as carrier board for beverages (eg: beer),
kraft envelopes and foodboard
Duplex board It has different finish or colour on each side. Most common
duplex board is white-lined chipboard
Aseptic/Medical Aseptic processing and packaging extend the shelf life of
packaging food and drink
Packaging papers It includes packaging paper and tissue papers
Packaging paper They are essentially non-board packaging grades, which are
used as a substitute for plastics for wrapping/bags purpose
Tissue paper Mainly used as toilet tissue papers. Also used for towel,
wipes, facial, handkerchief, napkin, and cellulose wadding
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