Decision Tree

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Operation Management

Example 5.2 - Exhibit 5.5 : Calculating


NPV

CASE I : Moving to new location

Under Strong growth ,

Discounting Value =
Year Cash Flow (1+IR)^(-years)

1 195,000 0.862
2 195,000 0.743
3 195,000 0.641
4 195,000 0.552
5 195,000 0.476
Revenue
Moving Cost
Net Present value

Under Weak Growth ,


1 115,000 0.862
2 115,000 0.743
3 115,000 0.641
4 115,000 0.552
5 115,000 0.476
Revenue
Moving Cost
Net Present Value

CASE II : Expand Store

Under Strong Growth


1 190,000 0.862
2 190,000 0.743
3 190,000 0.641
4 190,000 0.552
5 190,000 0.476
Revenue
Expanding Cost
Net Present Value
Under Weak Growth,
Similarly, The NPV will be calculated with cash flow value 100,000 =

Case III : Do Nothing Now

Under Strong Growth

(i) Expand next year


1 170,000 0.862
2 190,000 0.743
3 190,000 0.641
4 190,000 0.552
5 190,000 0.476
Revenue
Expanding Cost(after 1
year)
Net Present value

(ii) Do not Expand next year


1 170,000 0.862
2 170,000 0.743
3 170,000 0.641
4 170,000 0.552
5 170,000 0.476
Revenue
Expanding Cost
Net Present Value

Under Weak growth


1 105,000 0.862
2 105,000 0.743
3 105,000 0.641
4 105,000 0.552
5 105,000 0.476
Revenue
Other Costs
Net Present Value

Strong growth
0.550
Move 310,613

Weak growth
0.450

Strong growth
0.550

Hackers Computer Store Expand 402,507

Weak growth
0.450

Strong growth
0.550

Do nothing 460,857

Weak growth
0.450
Present Value
Note : Here Interest Rate ,IR = 16%
168,103
144,917
124,928
107,697
92,842
638,487 Net Present Value = Revenue - Moving Cost
210,000
428,487

99,138
85,464
73,676
63,513
54,753
376,544
210,000
166,544

163,793
141,201
121,725
104,935
90,461
622,116 Net Present Value = Revenue - Expanding Cost
87,000
535,116
ash flow value 100,000 = 240,429.

146,552
141,201
121,725
104,935
90,461
604,874
87,000*0.862 =
75,000
529,874

146,552
126,338
108,912
93,889
80,939
556,630
0
556,630

90,517
78,032
67,269
57,991
49,992
343,801
0
343,801

Revenue - Moving
Cost (NPV) =
428,487
Revenue - Moving
Cost (NPV) =
166,544

Revenue - Expansion
Cost (NPV) =
535,116

Revenue - Expansion
Cost (NPV) =
240,429

Expand Revenue - Expansion Cost (NPV) =


529,874

Do nothing
556,630

Do
nothing Revenue (NPV) =
556,630

Revenue (NPV) =
343,801

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