Motilal Top Investment Ideas: Sep'21
Motilal Top Investment Ideas: Sep'21
Motilal Top Investment Ideas: Sep'21
• Nifty crossed the 17,000 mark in Aug’21 to reach a record high. It gained 8.7% MoM for the month of August to close at 17,132. Nifty moved from
16K to 17K within 19 trading days, one of the fastest 1000 point milestone in its journey.
• In the CY21 so far, midcaps/smallcaps have risen 36%/45% v/s a 23% rise for the Nifty. The broader market however underperformed in August’21
with Nifty Midcap 100 gaining 2.2%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 index fell by 2.5%.
• FII inflows returned to Rs7,454 crore (including primary market activity) in Aug’21, after recording the highest outflows in July’21 since Mar’20 (-
Rs12,746 crore). DIIs saw inflows for the sixth consecutive month at Rs6,895 crore.
• Good 1QFY22 earnings delivery has boosted hopes for a solid FY22 with 30%+ projected Nifty earnings growth, on the back of a strong 15%
earnings growth in FY21. 1QFY22 Management commentaries across the board suggest an improved demand environment post June’21, led by the
easing of restrictions, lower active COVID-19 cases, and a pickup in vaccinations.
• Real GDP grew at a record 20.1% YoY in 1QFY22, albeit on a low base. Growth was largely attributable to 13.8% YoY growth in consumption and
56.7% YoY growth in Gross Capital Formation (GCF). The GST collection also remained above Rs1 lakh mark for the second consecutive month at Rs
1.12 lakh crore for Aug’21.
• Amid the buoyant sentiment and elevated activity in the primary markets, Nifty valuations at ~22x 12m forward EPS remain rich. Thus, consistent
delivery on earnings expectations becomes crucial going ahead. From the next 12 months perspective, we are positive on IT, BFSI, Metals, Cement,
Capital Goods and select names within Healthcare and Consumer.
Top Investment Ideas
Large Cap Mid cap
ICICI Bank Max Financial
SBI Chola Finance
Infosys JK Cements
HCL Tech Indian Hotels
UltraTech Deepak Nitrite
HUVR Orient Electric
Titan Solara
Divis Lab Zensar Tech
Hindalco L&T Technology
SBI Cards Aditya Birla Fashion
Valuation snapshot
Large Caps
Mid Caps
J K Cement: Market share gains to drive earnings; Expansion in Central India a long-term positive
Key Rationales
• The announced expansion at Panna should continue to drive market share gains in the long term as well as improve its regional mix in favor of North/Central India. It should help
the company move down the cost curve by lowering power and fuel and other costs.
• JKCE is increasing the production capacity of one of its kilns at Nimbahera to 6,000tpd from 5,000tpd currently. This would help extend GST benefits for the company up to CY27.
• JKCE recently expanded its Wall Putty capacity in Katni by 0.3mtpa, increasing the overall Putty capacity to 1.2mtpa. This is a high-margin business and has been growing at over
10% CAGR in the past few years. Expansion is thus timely and would help JKCE fully participate in market growth.
Concerns
• Rise in petcoke/ diesel prices possess risk to margin expansion
View
• We expect JKCE to deliver 16% EPS CAGR over FY21-23E, led by a 12% volume CAGR on account of its new capacity in North India.
Top Investment Ideas: Chemicals/Metals
Deepak Nitrite: Focus on advance/high-value products intensifies
Key Rationales
• DN has the most lucrative profile in the entire Specialty Chemicals space. Through its wholly owned subsidiary Deepak Phenolic Limited (DPL), it has substituted a majority of its
imports of phenol and acetone, and reportedly attained ~65% market share in the country. It aims to be the largest player in Solvents and capitalize on import substitution.
• It aims to transition from being a chemical intermediates company to an advance products one (leaning towards life sciences – the need of the hour). It would continue to focus
on bringing more products under the Fine & Specialty segment and close the gaps in the production value chain.
• Strong domestic demand for phenolics, with higher exports to countries such as the US and China, could keep product prices and margins strong in this segment.
Concerns
• Risk of overall margin contraction from the normalization of phenolics product prices
View
• We reiterate that the increased focus on advance/high-value products would aid margin expansion and sustainability for the company – of which investors are most wary. Even on
a conservative margin assumption, we forecast an EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 14–16% over FY22–24E.
•
Hindalco: Higher LME prices to drive earnings growth
Despite a capex plan of INR18b over the next three years, it is expected to turn net cash positive by FY23E, with an FCF generation of INR17.4b over FY22-24E.
Key Rationales
• HNDL is our preferred non-ferrous pick owing to a) robust volume recovery in both India and Novelis, b) strong profitability in primary Aluminum business, given low-cost
integrated operations in India (in the top quartile globally) and higher LME prices, c) solid FCF generation, which should reduce leverage sharply and d) reasonable valuations.
• The management expects demand for commodities such as aluminum and copper to remain strong in CY21 on the back of a stimulus-driven economic recovery.
• The outlook for Novelis is positive due to its resilience in the Beverage Cans business and demand recovery in Auto (a high-margin business). Demand for Beverage Cans is
expected to grow 3–6% YoY in CY21.
Concerns
• Any correction in aluminium prices poses a risk
View
• With a ~65% EBITDA contribution now accruing from Non-LME business (Novelis), we see relatively higher stability in HNDL’s earnings. Given tight demand-supply, we expect
aluminum prices to remain strong.
Top Investment Ideas: Consumer/ Consumer Durables
HUL: Managment suggests improving momentum
Key Rationales
• HUVR's best-of-breed analytics, execution ability and cost-saving plans are key factors driving the pace of earnings growth.
• After premiumization in Detergents led to strong growth in detergent sales and margin in the last decade, the Personal Wash and Dishwashing segments show considerable
promise going forward.
• Synergies from the GSKCH business (tracking ahead of earlier expectations) would play a bigger role in resumption of strong earnings growth going forward.
Concerns
• Lockdowns resulted in a temporary impact on high-margin discretionary product sales
View
• While the Jun’21 quarter was affected on this front due to lockdowns, the management commentary suggests substantial improvement in mix in subsequent quarters.
• The strong outlook on rural, GSKCH synergies, and sustained growth and premiumization in Skin Cleansing offer further medium-term tailwinds. In a period of relative normalcy,
we believe that HUVR is likely to post superior earnings growth.
Chola Finance: Muted disbursements; PAT beat despite elevated credit costs
Key Rationales
• Two aspects of CIFC’s Vehicle Finance business stand out v/s most peers: i) it is well-diversified across product segments and ii) there is no state-level concentration – the largest
state accounts for less than 10% of the total portfolio.
• Its strong asset quality has been CIFC’s hallmark. It has delivered benign credit costs (sub-100bp) v/s peers such as SHTF and MMFS (200bp+).
• Over the past year, CIFC has weathered the pandemic well. Its collection efforts have resulted in relatively better asset quality, without any large write-offs.
Concerns
Third wave of covid-19 may further slower the recovery.
View
• We expect a strong rebound in disbursements over the remainder of FY22, AUM growth is likely to be in the single digits in FY22E, followed by a pickup to 13–15% over FY23–24E.
• We expect the company to deliver healthy RoE of 17–20% over the next two years. We expect strong recovery in disbursements from 2QFY22.
Top Investment Ideas: Financials/Hospitality
Max Financial: Non-PAR growth remains robust
Key Rationales
• MAXLIFE reported strong operating trends, with premium growth in the Non-PAR business remaining steady, while the ULIP business showed a recovery. MAXLIFE has increased
its focus on Non-PAR and Protection segments, the share of which has increased to ~44% in FY21.
• VNB has doubled in the last three years, aided by improvement in high margin products in the total APE mix. VNB margin currently stands at 25%.
• Strong push via the bancassurance channel has supported premium growth, while growth is improving gradually in the proprietary channel.
Concerns
• Excess provision due to covid - 19
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• We estimate APE growth at 22% CAGR over FY20-23E and VNB margin to improve to 26.8% in FY23E. This would enable 26% VNB CAGR over FY21-23E, while operating RoEV will
sustain ~22%. We maintain our Buy rating with a TP of INR1,200/share
Indian Hotels: Cost savings and operating leverage lower operating loss
Key Rationales
• The management has unveiled a new strategy ‘RESET 2020’ (R: Revenue growth initiatives, E: Excellence initiatives, S: Spend optimization initiatives, E: Effective asset
management, T: Thrift and financial prudence). Through the RESET strategy in FY21, IHIN ensured: i) incremental revenue growth of INR2.6b, ii) spends optimization of INR4.2b,
iii) effective asset management (sale of residential apartments and lease cost savings) of INR700m, and iv) financial prudence in corporate expenditure of INR1.
• While FY21 earnings are weak, we expect a gradual/sharp recovery in FY22E/FY23E on: a) a low base, b) improvement in ARRs once things normalize, c) improved occupancies, d)
positivity in cost rationalization efforts in FY21, e) an increase in F&B income as banqueting/conferences resume, and f) higher income from management contracts.
• Further, IHIN opened three new hotels across brands to further tapped into the potential of strategically located destination.
Concerns
• Third wave of Covid may further delay the recovery in the Hospitality sector
View
• New revenue generating avenues have a higher EBITDA margin, and this is being done without deploying capital or with very minimal capital, which bodes well for RoCE. We have
increased our FY22E revenue/EBITDA estimate by 2%/4%, and maintained our estimate for FY23E.
Top Investment Ideas: Healthcare
Divis: Multi-pronged strategy to maintain growth trajectory
Key Rationales
• DIVI is deploying six growth engines for long-term sustained growth. Scale-up in legacy products and new introductions would drive growth in the Generic API segment. it is
currently working on 16 new molecules which would drive next leg of growth.
• Successful backward integration would lead to better business opportunities in the Sartans space. DIVI has increased traction in Contrast Media in CS and the existing Generics
API segment. It would scale up two CS projects in addition to Molnupiravir. Further there are potential opportunities from genericization of products over FY23-25E
Concerns
• Any delay in pick up of Contrast Media/carotenoid business.
View
• DIVI remains well poised in terms of both product development and manufacturing capacity to sustain superior return ratios over the next 4–5 years.
• We expect a 34% earnings CAGR over FY21–23E, led by increased business prospects from CS/ Generics, improved growth in Nutraceuticals, new product additions in the
Contrast Media space, and ~230bp margin expansion on process and productivity improvements.
Aditya Birla Fashion: Strong revenue recovery, but leverage on the rise
Key Rationales
• Recovery is expected to commence from 2QFY22 if the COVID situation is controlled. Moreover, the spurt in consumer demand, coupled with a better competitive position
against smaller peers, should translate to a revenue scale better than pre-COVID levels.
• ABFRL has consistently improved its earnings graph, with a revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 37%/75% over FY14–19. Considering the dented growth in FY20, the revenue/EBITDA CAGR
would stand at 32%/55% over FY14-20
• Since the recent fundraise through a rights issue and strategic stake sale to Flipkart, leverage has come under control. It saw a spike in net debt by INR5.5b to INR12b in 1QFY22,
but this should largely reverse with revenue recovery and the payment of the final tranche of the INR2.5b rights issue.
Concerns
• Recovery may get further prolonged on account of 3rd Covid wave
View
• While the near-term increase in losses from expansion in the Ethnic Wear vertical remains a concern, we expect this to be largely offset by lower losses from other businesses and
growth in the Lifestyle Brands / Pantaloons business. We remain positive given the quicker recovery and improving balance sheet.
Top Investment Ideas: Technology
Infosys: FY22 guidance leaves scope for an upward revision
Key Rationales
• INFO posted a strong growth in 1QFY22. We expect the company to deliver a top quartile growth performance in FY22E on the back of its strong technical capabilities and ramp
up in deal wins in FY21.
• We expect INFO to deliver another year of an ongoing guidance raise as the current one does not fully factor in strong technology demand and execution of its record high deal
wins (LTM deal wins rose 86% YoY to USD14.9b).
• There has been sustained growth acceleration, with seven industries reporting strong double digit growth.
Concerns
• For FY21, it delivered strong margin - tailwinds of which are not sustainable.
View
• With Cloud becoming a Digital priority, many clients are taking advantage of Infosys Cobalt. We expect INFO to be a key beneficiary of a recovery in IT spends in FY22E.