War Beyond Rules: Hybrid War and India's Preparedness: Narender Kumar
War Beyond Rules: Hybrid War and India's Preparedness: Narender Kumar
War Beyond Rules: Hybrid War and India's Preparedness: Narender Kumar
Introduction
its presence in Indian Ocean Region and South Asia. The Indian state
should acknowledge that in a borderless battlefield, it is no longer possible
to rely on military forces and weapons alone to achieve national security
in the larger strategic sense.3 Therefore, if a nation cannot understand
war without understanding the broader political and social implications
of the context of war in which it is executed,4 it will not be possible to
find answer to such complex security paradigm. Hybrid wars cannot be
fought by blunt military power; they require the intellectual preparation
of a battle space.5
Hybrid war is on the cusp of conventional and sub-conventional wars
and exploits regular and irregular capabilities to achieve the desired results
—that of fighting a war against a strong nation without the risk of major
retribution. The manifestation of hybrid threat can break the barrier of
‘no peace no war’ to a war-like situation. Figure 1 provided by Dr Frank
G. Hoffman describes the spectrum of conflict and how ungoverned or
grey zones lead to an irregular and hybrid threat.
are simple-minded folk and do not easily take to the type of warfare to
which, say, a Punjabi or an Afghan takes to naturally, against foreign
domination.’11 The objective was to create societal space for hybrid war
and that Pakistan has achieved.
Acts of criminality
These are parts of the coercion to alter the will of the people so that they
do not resist the so called people’s movement. Acts of criminality are
undertaken against the security forces, mainland India, and even against
the Kashmiri people to create a support base by coercion if the support
does not come willingly. Nation must remember that today’s criminal is
tomorrow’s terrorist.
and regular forces. The Hezbollah and Syrian Democratic Forces have
acquired the capabilities to operate as regulars and non-state actors.
The targets of regulars, criminals, and irregulars in hybrid war could be
different. Irregulars could target regulars, terrorists could dominate the
cognitive domain, and criminals could target those whom they consider
as obstructing their larger goal. Pakistan has been using regulars to train
equip, control the irregulars, and terrorists to operate in Jammu and
Kashmir and even other parts of India. The targets are carefully selected
by the Pak Army and ISI, and resources and logistics are made available
to them to execute the task. But the irregulars and regulars have restricted
their activities along the line of control (LOC). Interestingly the division
of boundaries for employment is clearly defined. Non-state actors operate
within the Indian Territory while regulars and irregulars operate along the
LOC.
Information war
Hybrid war becomes even more potent and volatile with an information
war. It creates the perception of success, decides the scales of victory, and
acts as potent tool for a misinformation campaign against the established
governments. In the digital era, media becomes one of the most potent
tools of the information war. Pakistan has been exploiting this to the hilt.
Resource control
Denial of access to resources is one strategy used in hybrid war. It weakens
the war waging capability of the target nation. Denial of resources is
achieved by disrupting communications and the destruction of resources.
The other aspect of resource control is the exploitation of resources for
enhancing capabilities. ISIS has denied resources to Syrian and Iraqi
governments and used the same resources to enhance its own capabilities.
Pakistan may like to do the same but has been unable to achieve success.
North-East India
The north-eastern states of India have seen the longest on-going insurgency
in the country. The scale of violence fluctuates but it continues to simmer
and except for Mizoram all other states have active insurgent groups.
What is equally worrying is the nexus between criminals, drug traffickers,
insurgents, and the state patronage of our adversaries who provide
ideological and material support from across the border. Insurgents enjoy
safe havens or grey zones across international borders. There is some degree
of subversion among the population in some areas. The components of
modern instability (corruption, poor governance, unemployment, uneven
distribution of wealth, poor development, and ethnic fragmentation) do
exist and these create the space for hybrid elements to spread the network.
The North-East has seen three cycles of insurgency related instability.
The first cycle was marked by an ideologically-backed ethnic conflict for
self-determination that started in the late 1950s and continued till the
1980s. The second cycle that started in the 1990s highlighted the fact that
ideology was withering away and had become an industry, and this is still
continuing. The third cycle, if not checked in time, is likely to unfold a
dangerous mix of Jihadi and LWE insurgency. This is perilous because it
can pave the way for the beginning of a hybrid threat in the north-eastern
states.
The potential of initiation of hybrid war in the North-East does exist
but the subversion of population has not taken place to a great extent,
except in some pockets in Assam, Bengal, and Manipur. An encouraging
sign is that the masses are looking for peace and development rather than
conflict and instability. The youth still feel that their future lies with India
and in spite of the instability on the ground, insurgency is unlikely to get
converted into hybrid war. This belief should not make the government
complacent and the situation should be continuously monitored and
effective steps both military and non-military need to be taken to restore
peace and stability.
define. Even those who orchestrate this warfare The biggest flaw
can lose control over the outcome. It has the in the Indian
potential to transform into conventional war response,
and multiple sub-conventional wars. On one especially in
Jammu and
side of the spectrum it uses Intifada as a tool to Kashmir, is that
paralyse state institutions and occupy the public India is seeing this
space; and on the other side, it has the potential conflict through
to unleash brutal violence that can be directed the prism of a
conventional
against potential targets. Another facet of hybrid military response.
war is that there is persistent risk of strategic This is a tired
miscalculation and escalation of conflict. Thus, ideology which is
hybrid war is not purely military matter; it is a likely to confront
the fatigue factor
war against a nation, a society, a culture, and sooner or later.
its people. To deal with this emerging threat
a whole of nation approach is required. Figure 3 defines the tools of
war that cover almost the entire spectrum of military and non-military
threats.
The biggest flaw in the Indian response,
especially in Jammu and Kashmir, is that India Intelligence
agencies are
is seeing this conflict through the prism of a operating
conventional military response. This is a tired independently
ideology which is likely to confront the fatigue of the security
factor sooner or later. A synergised response forces and are not
responsible for
under a single command authority covering both the troops on the
military and non-military measures is imperative. ground. The MHA
Intelligence agencies are operating independently controls Central
of the security forces and are not responsible for Armed Police
Force whereas
the troops on the ground. The MHA controls the Army operates
Central Armed Police Force whereas the Army under the MOD.
operates under the MOD. The state police and The state police
the India Reserve Battalions (IRB) operate and the India
Reserve Battalions
under state authority. Cyber and information (IRB) operate
war is conspicuous by its absence and even if it under
is being initiated, it is independent of the other state authority.
of space and the securing of the exposed flank is the first step a nation
must take to counter hybrid threat. The whole effort should be to prevent
the collapse of the state strengthening of institutions.
Conclusion
India should not become a victim of hybrid war or casualty, because of its
own neglect. There is a need to introspect, analyse and formulate the doctrine
and strategies to have an effective mechanism to deal with it. Hybrid warfare
will be a defining feature of the future security environment18 and thus a
fragmented approach will be detrimental to the national interests. The
debate of ethics and rules does not apply to hybrid war; what is important
is the impact of own response to a borderless war. As Frank Hoffman states,
‘Tomorrow’s conflicts will not be easily categorised into conventional or
irregular, the emerging character of conflict is more complicated than what
it appears. A binary choice of big and conventional versus small or irregular
is too simplistic.’19 India needs to develop an understanding of hybrid
war and the contours of conflict suggest that the future wars will not be
completely conventional, nor should it be assumed that state-based conflict
has passed into the dustbin of history. Many have made that mistake before.
State-based conflict is less likely, but it is not extinct.20 Hybrid warfare has
emerged from the theory to the reality and it is here to stay.
Notes
1. NilanthanNiruthan, ‘How Hybrid Warfare Could Change Asia’, The Diplomat, 25
June 2016.
2. Ibid.
3. Major John A. Van Messel, ‘Unrestricted Warfare: A Chinese Doctrine for Future
Warfare? United States Marine Corps’, available at http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/
fulltext/u2/a509132.pdf, accessed on 13 March 2017.
4. Colonel Margaret S. Bond, ‘Hybrid War: A New Paradigm For Stability Operations
in Failing States’, USAWC Strategy Research Project, U.S. Army War College, 30
March 2007.
5. Dr. Frank Hoffman, The Contemporary Spectrum of Conflict: Protracted, Gray Zone,
Ambiguous, and Hybrid Modes of War, Heritage: National Security and Defence, 2016
Index of US Military Strength.
6. Brig Anil Gupta, ‘Is India Prepared to Deal With Hybrid War?’, South Asian Mirror,
4 December 2016.
7. Frank G. Hoffman, ‘Hybrid vs. Compound War, the JanusChoice: Defining Today’s
Multifaceted Conflict’, Armed Forces Journal, October 2009, p. 15.
8. Michael Raska and Richard A. Bitzinger, ‘Russia’s Concept of Hybrid Wars:
Implications for Small States’, RSIS, 14 April 2015.
9. Ibid.
10. Note 5.
11. OP TOPAC: The Kashmir Imbroglio–I, IDR Network, 29 July 2012.
12. ‘Hybrid War—Hybrid Response?’, NATO Review Magazine, available at http://www.
nato.int/docu/review/2014/Russia-Ukraine-Nato-crisis/Russia-Ukraine-crisis-war/
EN/index.htm, accessed on 19 March 2017.
13. Zunyou Zhou, ‘China’s Comprehensive Counter-Terrorism Law’, The Diplomat, 23
January 2016.
14. Frank Hoffman, ‘Hybrid Warfare and Challenges’, Small Wars Journal, ndupress.ndu.
edu, Issue 52, 1st quarter 2009.
15. Raska and Bitzinger, Note 8.
16. Ibid.
17. General (Retired) Gary Luck and Colonel (Retired) Mike Findlay, Joint Operations
Insights & Best Practices, Joint Warfighting Centre, United States Joint Forces
Command, July 2008, 2nd Edition.
18. Michèle A. Flournoy and Shawn Brimley, ‘The Defence Inheritance: Challenges and
Choices for the Next Pentagon Team’, Washington Quarterly Autumn 2008, 63.
19. Note10.
20. Ibid.