Network Analysis - PERT & CPM
Network Analysis - PERT & CPM
Network Analysis - PERT & CPM
Introduction
• Network analysis is one of the important tools for
project management.
• Whether major or minor a project has to be
completed in a definite time & at a definite cost.
• The necessary information of any particular data can
be represented as a project network.
• These techniques are very useful for planning,
scheduling and executing large-time bound projects
involving careful co-ordination of variety of complex
and interrelated activities
Objectives of network analysis
• Helpful in planning
• Inter-relationship of various activities
• Cost control
• Minimisation of maintenance time
• Reduction of time
• Control on idle resources
• Avoiding delays, interruptions
Applications of network analysis
• Planning, scheduling, monitoring and control of large
and complex projects.
• Construction of factories, highways, building,
bridges, cinemas etc.
• Helpful to army for its missile development.
• Assembly line scheduling
• Installation of computers and high tech machineries
• To make marketing strategies
Stages for project management
• Project planning stages : it is an important step during
which are set the plans and strategies for projects
execution. It has two important aspects – identification of
activities and estimation of resources.
Project planning involves following steps :
1. Setting the objectives of the project and the assumptions
to be made.
2. Developing the WBS.
3. Determination of time estimates of these activities
4. Estimation of resources
5. establishment of interdependence relationship between
activities i.e. The sequence of performing activities.
Scheduling stage : once all work packages have
been identified and given unique names or
identifiers, scheduling of the project started. It
consist of determining:
1. Start and finish times of each activity and the
earliest and latest times at which events can
occur.
2. Critical activity that requires special attention.
3. Allocation resources-men, machines, materials,
time, space, money etc.
4. Various constraints due to limitation of
resources.
• Project control stage : project control refers to evaluating
actual progress against the plan. If significant differences
are observed, then the scheduling and resources allocation
decisions are changed to update and revise the
uncompleted part of the project. It consists of following
steps:
1. Setting standard and targets with regard to time and cost
of the project.
2. Reviewing the progress by comparing the work
accomplished to the work scheduled at different stages
of time and finding deviations.
3. Evaluating the effects of deviations on the project plan.
4. Updating the project schedule.
5. Suggesting the corrective measures to rectify the
deviations from the plan.
Basic tools and techniques of project
management
• The various tools and techniques of project
management are grouped into the following
two heads:
1. Bar Charts, Milestone charts and velocity
diagrams
2. Network techniques.
Bar Chart
Gantt chart
Velocity Chart
The Velocity Chart shows the amount of value delivered in each sprint, enabling you
to predict the amount of work the team can get done in future sprints. It is useful
during your sprint planning meetings, to help you decide how much work you can
feasibly commit to.
You can estimate your team's velocity based on the total Estimate (for all completed
stories) for each recent sprint. This isn't an exact science — looking at several
sprints will help you to get a feel for the trend. For each sprint, the Velocity Chart
shows the sum of the Estimates for complete and incomplete stories. Estimates can
be based on story points, business value, hours, issue count, or any numeric field of
your choice.
Milestone chart
Network techniques
• A network also called as network diagram or network technique is a
symbolic representation of the essential characteristics of a project.
PERT and CPM are two most widely applied techniques.
1. Program evaluation and review technique(PERT):
• It uses event oriented network in which successive events are joined
by arrows.
• It is preferred for projects that are non repetitive and in which time
for various activities can not be precisely pre determined.
• There is no significant past experience to guide.
• Launching a new product in the market by company, research and
development of new war weapon, launching of satellite, sending
space craft to mars are PERT projects.
• Three time estimates – the optimistic time estimate, pessimistic
time estimate and the most likely time estimate are associated with
each and every activity to take into account the uncertainty in their
times.
Network techniques
2. Critical Path Method (CPM):
• It uses activity oriented network which consists of a
number of well recognized jobs, tasks or activities.
• Each activity is represented by arrow and activities are
joined together by events.
• CPM is generally used for simple, repetitive types of
projects for which the activity times and costs are
certainly and precisely known.
• Projects like construction of building, road, bridge,
physical verification of store, yearly closing of accounts
by a company can be handled by CPM.
• Thus it is deterministic rather than probabilistic model.
Difference between PERT & CPM
PERT CPM
A probability model with A deterministic model with well
uncertainty in activity known activity times based upon the
duration . The duration of past experience.
each activity is computed
from multiple time estimates
with a view to take into
account time uncertainty.
Deterministic
estimates
Probabilistic
estimates
i j
activity
Event Event
start finish
Classification of activities
• Predecessor activity: Activities that must be completed
immediately prior to the start of another activity are
called predecessor activities.
• Successor activity : activities that cannot be started until
one or more of other activities are completed but
immediately succeed them are called successor activities.
• Concurrent activities: activities that can be accomplished
together are known as concurrent activities.
• Dummy activity: An activity which does not consume any
resource but merely depicts the dependence of one
activity on other is called dummy activity. It is introduced
in a network when two or more parallel activities have the
same start and finish nodes.
Event
• The beginning & end of an activities are called as
events .
• Events are represented by numbered circles called
nodes.
i j
Event Event
start finish
Types of Events
• Merge event
• Burst event
• Dangling : sometimes a
project network includes
an activity which does
not fit into the end
objective of the project
and is carried out without
any result related with
completion of the project
. Such an error in network
is called dangling
Example 1- A simple network
Consider the list of four activities for making a simple product:
A D
1 3 4
B C
Activity Predecessor
activity
A none
B none
C A
D A
E B
F C
G D&E
Example 2
Activity Predecessor
activity C
A none 2 4 F
A
B none
D
C A 1
6
D A
B
3 G
E B 5
E
F C
G D&E
Example 3
Activity Predecessor
activity
A none
B A
C A
D B
E C
F D ,E
3 D
B
A F
5 6
1 2
C
4 E
Example 4
Develop the network for a project with following activities and
immediate predecessors:
Activity Immediate
predecessors
A -
B -
C B
D A, C
E C
F C
G D,E,F
Try to do for the first five (A,B,C,D,E) activities
A D
1 3 4
E
B
C 5
2
We need to introduce
a dummy activity
1 2 1 Dummy
b 3
b
WRONG!!! RIGHT
a d a d
1 1
b e b
2 2 4
e
c f c f
3 3
a precedes d.
a and b precede e,
b and c precede f (a does not precede f)
• Critical event : the slack of an event is the difference between the latest &
earliest events time. The events with zero slack time are called as critical
events.
• Critical activities : The difference between latest start time & earliest start
time of an activity will indicate amount of time by which the activity can
be delayed without affecting the total project duration. The difference is
usually called total float. Activities with 0 total float are called as critical
activities
Critical path
• The critical path is the longest path in the network from the starting event
to ending event & defines the minimum time required to complete the
project.
Activity
1
t = expected activity
time
7
4
1 6
Activity
2
LF = latest finish time
LS = latest start time
D[5,8] 5
2 3[7,10]
7
4
1 6
LF-EF = 12 –9 =3
LS-ES = 8 – 5 = 3
LF-ES-t = 12-5-4 = 3
A 5 0 0 5 5 0 Yes
B 6 0 6 6 12 6
C 4 5 8 9 12 3
D 3 5 7 8 10 2
E 1 5 5 6 6 0 Yes
F 4 6 6 10 10 0 Yes
G 14 10 10 24 24 0 Yes
H 12 9 12 21 24 3
I 2 24 24 26
Scheduling, PERT, Critical Path
26 0 Yes
Chapter 8 53
Analysis
IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
• What is the total time to complete the project?
– 26 weeks if the individual activities are completed on schedule.
• What are the scheduled start and completion times for each activity?
– ES, EF, LS, LF are given for each activity.
• How long can non-critical activities be delayed before they cause a delay in
the project’s completion time
– Slack time available for all activities are given.
Interfering Float= it refers to that portion of an activity float which can not
be consumed without adversely affecting the floats of the subsequent
activities.
Free float = total float - head
event slack
Independent Float = free float –
tail event slack
Interfering Float= Total Float –
Free Float
Problem 6
Problem 7
PERT
PERT is designed for scheduling complex projects that involve
many inter-related tasks. it improves planning process
because:
• Most likely time ( tm ) : the time which the activity will take
most frequently if repeated number of times.
te = to + 4tm + tp
6
4
2
1 G 6
5 2
3
Expected time
Activity Te = to +4tm+tp
6
A(1-2) 4
B(1-3) 3
C(2-4) 2
D(2-5) 7
E(3-5) 6
F(4-6) 4
G(5-6) 2
1-2 4 0 4 0 4 0 0 0
1-3 3 0 3 2 5 2 0 0
2-4 2 4 6 7 9 3 0 0
2-5 7 4 11 4 11 0 0 0
3-5 6 3 9 5 11 2 2 0
4-6 4 6 10 9 13 3 3 0
5-6 2 11 13 11 13 0 0 0
Total float = Ls – Es or Lf – Ef
1-2 1 4 7
1-3 5 10 15
2-4 3 3 3
2-6 1 4 7
3-4 10 15 26
3-5 2 4 6
4-5 5 5 5
5-6 2 5 8
1. Draw the network &find expected project completion time.
2. What is the probability that it would be completed in 41 days.
Variance of critical path
Activity To Tp variance
1-3 5 15 2.77
3-4 10 26 7.11
4-5 5 5 0
5-6 2 8 1
Total=
10.88
So, standard deviation = 3.30
Probability for completing the job in 41 days.
Z = DUE DATE – EXPECTED DATE OF COMPLETION
S.D. OF CRITICAL PATH
= 41 – 36
3.30
= 1.51
The tabulated value of corresponding to calculated value
i.e. 1.51 is .4345
So probability is .5 + .4345 = .9345 i.e. 93.45% that
project will be completed on 41 day.
Problem 3
activity Preceding to tm tp
activity
A - 2 3 10
B - 2 3 4
C A 1 2 3
D A 4 6 14
E B 4 5 12
F C 3 4 5
G D,E 1 1 7
• Find the expected duration and
variance of each activity.
• What is the expected project
length?
• Calculate the variance &standard
deviation of the project length.
activity to Tm tp te variance
A 2 3 10 4 16/9
B 2 3 4 3 1/9
C 1 2 3 2 1/9
D 4 6 14 7 25/9
E 4 5 12 6 16/9
F 3 4 5 4 1/9
G 1 2 7 2 1
Various paths &expected project length
A-C-F = 4+2+4 = 10
A-D-G = 4+7+2 = 13 CRITICAL PATH
B-E-G = 3+6+2 = 11
Thus critical path is A-D-G with an expected length of 13
days. Hence the expected project length is 13 days.
Project variance = 16/9 + 25/9 + 1 = 50/9
PERT For Dealing With Uncertainty
• So far, times can be estimated with relative certainty, confidence
a - 10 22 22 20 4 2
b - 20 20 20 20 0 0
c - 4 10 16 10 4 2
d a 2 14 32 15 25 5
e b,c 8 8 20 10 4 2
f b,c 8 14 20 14 4 2
g b,c 4 4 4 4 0 0
h c 2 12 16 11 5.4 2.32
I g,h 6 16 38 18 28.4 5.33
j d,e 2 8 14 8 4 2
d 6
2
(15,25)
j
a (8,4)
(20,4) e
(10,4)
1 f 7
3
b (14,4)
(20,0)
g
c
(4,0)
(10,4) i
(18,28.4)
h 5
4
(11,5.4)
EF=20 35
d 6
2
a (15,25) j
(20,4) (8,4)
b e
20 43
(20,0) (10,4)
f CRIT. TIME = 43
1 3 7
(14,4)
g
c (4,0)
(10,4) i
(18,28.4)
h 5
4
(11,5.4)
10 24
b 1 0 1
c 4 0 4
d 20 20 0 Yes
e 25 20 5
f 29 20 9
g 21 20 1
h 14 10 4
i 25 24 1
j 35 35 0 Yes
Z = (D-S) / V
Example,
D = 50; S(Scheduled date) = 20+15+8 =43; V = (4+25+4) =33
Z = (50 – 43) / 5.745
= 1.22 standard deviations.
1.22
D = S + 5.745 (1.645)
= 43 + 9.45
= 52.45 days
3 Used where times can be estimated Used where times cannot be estimated
with confidence, familiar activities with confidence.
Unfamiliar or new activities