High Attrition Rates in E-Learning: Challenges, Predictors, and Solutions
High Attrition Rates in E-Learning: Challenges, Predictors, and Solutions
High Attrition Rates in E-Learning: Challenges, Predictors, and Solutions
2003
T H I S W E E K — M A N A G E M E N T S T R AT E G I E S
W W W. E L E A R N I N G G U I L D . C O M
MANAGEMENT / strategies
new challenges. Most colleges and uni- information needed to apply these per-
versities routinely face them, especially sonalization principles and to develop an
Publisher David Holcombe with first-year students who are often attrition management plan for e-Learning
unprepared for self-directed learning. It in your organization.
Editorial Director Heidi Fisk may be a surprise to learn that half of all
Editor Bill Brandon
freshmen today drop out before complet- Introduction
Copy Editor Charles Holcombe
ing their programs. Now, outside the Keeping online learners engaged and
Design Director Nancy Marland world of academia, trainers are finding enrolled is a tough challenge. The reality
that requiring a higher degree of self- is that many learners who function well
The eLearning Guild™ Advisory Board
Ruth Clark, Conrad Gottfredson, John Hartnett, motivation or self-direction in e-Learning in classrooms are not ready for online
Bill Horton, Kevin Moore, Eric Parks, Brenda Pfaus is also associated with higher attrition learning. Typical learners have developed
Marc Rosenberg, Allison Rossett and lower retention. People drop out, a classroom learning ability over time.
and we wonder, “Why?” They know how to interact with teachers
We can learn much from the retention and with other students, and they know
Copyright 2003. The eLearning Developers’ Journal™. how to take tests.
research conducted for universities and
Compilation copyright by The eLearning Guild 2003. All
rights reserved. Please contact The eLearning Guild for colleges. In these institutions, research- Online, learners require an expanded
reprint permission. ers have been able to identify common set of skills to be successful. In the
The eLearning Developers’ Journal is published weekly predictors that correlate completion with same vein, trainers need a different kind
by The eLearning Guild, 525 College Avenue, Suite learner characteristics, experiences, and of design and teaching perspective for
215, Santa Rosa, CA 95404. Phone: 707.566.8990. settings. Many universities and colleges the online world, in contrast to the class-
The eLearning Guild is an operating unit of Focuszone room. These are two sides of the same
have developed attrition management
Media, Inc., 1030 Beatrice Street, Eagan, MN 55121.
plans in order to better understand and coin.
The Journal is included as part of Guild membership. address the dropout problem. Solutions Until the advent of online learning, it
To join the Guild go to www.eLearningGuild.com.
found in higher education have improved was enough to design primarily cognitive-
retention through analysis and placement based solutions, driven by the ways peo-
of students, collaboration between ple process information, and to rely on
The eLearning Developers’ Journal™ is design- administrative departments, learner the instructor to provide the personal
ed to serve the industry as a catalyst for inno- advice and management, and curriculum touch during delivery. Something similar
vation and as a vehicle for the dissemination of to that personal touch is even more
integration.
new and practical strategies and techniques for
Any organization can create an attrition important online. Research suggests
e-Learning designers, developers and man-
management plan to incorporate such that e-Learning outcomes, including com-
agers. The Journal is not intended to be the
solutions, tailored as necessary to gov- pletion rate, improve when the instruc-
definitive authority. Rather, it is intended
ernment or private enterprise situations. tional presentation adapts to the learn-
to be a medium through which e-Learning practi-
tioners can share their knowledge, expertise Such a plan will coordinate strategies for er’s aptitude, expectations, and person-
and experience with others for the general implementation, delivery, and progress ality.
betterment of the industry. measurement across entire learner popu- Good classroom trainers intuitively pay
As in any profession, there are many differ- lations. But plans adapted from higher attention to key human factors, and
J U LY 1 4 , 2 0 0 3 / T H E E L E A R N I N G D E V E L O P E R S ’ J O U R N A L
ent perspectives about the best strategies, education can now be made better. adjust content, presentation, and other
techniques and tools one can employ to accom- e-Learning designs that accommodate factors as needed to promote learning.
plish a specific objective. This Journal will share individual learner profiles through “per- Trainers receive important cues from
these different perspectives and does not posi- sonalization” principles further reduce learner emotions, and from expressions
tion any one as “the right way,” but rather we online dropouts. Recent neuroscience of learner intent. Learner persistence is
position each article as “one of the right ways” advances support the notion of these something that has to be inspired and
for accomplishing a goal. We assume that profiles. Personalization complements nurtured throughout the learning and
readers will evaluate the merits of each article and extends more traditional approach- teaching experience. Online, of course,
and use the ideas they contain in a manner es, including attrition management plans. the usual cues to learner emotions are
appropriate for their specific situation. We Cost-effective technologies exist to iden- not available to an instructor or to an
encourage discussion and debate about articles tify and support key success attributes e-Learning application.
and provide an Online Discussion board for that are important to a learning audi-
each article. ence, and to tap into self-motivation and Definitions
The articles contained in the Journal are all Definitions are important in this dis-
self-direction. Through these technolo-
written by people who are actively engaged in cussion, so here are three terms that
gies, it is possible to identify at-risk
this profession at one level or another — not
learners, improve the quality of the learn- you will see throughout the next few
by paid journalists or writers. Submissions are
ing experience for every student, get the pages.
always welcome at any time, as are sugges-
right message and the right tools to each Attrition refers to a decrease in the
tions for articles and future topics. To learn
person at the right time, and encourage number of learners or students engaged
more about how to submit articles and/or
ideas, please refer to the directions in the side- learner achievement and continuing per- in some course of study. This course of
bar on page 6 or visit www.eLearningGuild.com. formance improvement. study might be a degree plan, or it might
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T H E E L E A R N I N G D E V E L O P E R S ’ J O U R N A L / J U LY 1 4 , 2 0 0 3
criterion tests. ter greater persistence and self-motiva- least the point of departure) for many
tion. This approach will help to identify attrition management efforts.
Learning design and attrition issues “at risk” learners and provide the solu-
Successful e-Learning designers, tions, interactions, and environments Tinto’s model
instructors, and trainers know that online that will eliminate or minimize the demo- Vincent Tinto’s model is commonly ref-
instruction can encourage persistence tivating elements. If the design is caus- erenced in the learner retention/dropout
and reduce attrition, to the extent that ing attrition because it frustrates or literature. (See Figure 1, above.) The
the design and implementation recognize drains interest, analysis will make this model’s concept is that of “integration”
and tap into how individuals may want to obvious. of multiple influences on attrition. The
learn. Unfortunately, many of today’s model claims that whether a learner per-
e-Learning designs lack appropriate per- Attrition management in higher sists is strongly predicted by that learn-
sonalized support that will help individu- education er’s degree of academic and social inte-
als manage their online experience, stay Traditional theories addressing learner gration.
motivated to finish the course, and learn attrition at institutions of higher learning
satisfactorily. consider various issues, characteristics Attrition management examples
Personality issues must be considered and settings. These usually include There are a number of guidelines and
from the very beginning of the e-Learning demographics, ethnicity, family, econom- examples of attrition management plans
design process, during planning and ics, experiences, background, and relat- and strategies available on the Web.
analysis. An analysis is inadequate if it ed variables. Additionally, studies often Several are included in the sidebar on
does not determine the key personality cite personal reasons such as family page 8. These are:
attributes and sources for learning differ- problems, finances, child care, distrac- • An Examination of the Retention
3
ences in the learner population. The tions, and job needs and demands as Literature and Application in Learner
MANAGEMENT / strategies
Success (Harvey-Smith, 2002) • Key programs, facilities, and resources ry, and brain development that govern
• Community College Survey of Learner • Measures and accountability specific aspects of learning success.
Engagement (CCSSE, 2003) Emotion and intention to learn are pow-
• Retention Revisited (Seidman, 1996). Where do current attrition erful forces — on these two depend how
• Strategic Plan (MSU-Bottineau management plans fall short? well individuals purposefully manage
Administrative Council, 2003) The literature to date does not provide information, plan, and set and accom-
• Strategic Retention Planning (University strong proof or good tests of retention plish goals. These are consistent find-
of Memphis, 2002) and attrition theory. Additional considera- ings in the research. Ultimately, these
tion and integration of important neurobi- are the factors that influence learner per-
Attrition management framework ological characteristics, such as locus of sistence, attrition, and retention.
An attrition management plan should control or goal orientation, is needed.
deal with retention issues based on a Note that most of the examples avail- Whole-brain perspectives
coherent framework combined with a able on the Web do not consider individ- Recent research highlights the strong
more effective method for measuring ual learning differences; they assume impact of three additional factors on per-
progress. An overview of the framework that “one size fits all.” This type of untar- sistence and performance, namely an
should provide a reliable definition of geted approach wastes resources. What individual’s independence, goal orienta-
retention. The framework should link is needed is an integration of convention- tion, and locus of control. These charac-
business or academic strategy and priori- al models offering a more evolved under- teristics also impact factors commonly
ty to a strategy for learning, develop- standing of individual learning differ- associated with learner retention and
ment, and evaluation, and then to a ences based on neurobiological founda- attrition, including engagement, expecta-
learning blueprint. Aspects of the frame- tions. Research is suggesting that locus tions, motivation, self-direction, and atti-
work should include the following ele- of control, measured by Julian Rotter’s tude. Studies are beginning to show that
ments: Locus of Control scale (see the Readings these three factors can be used to dis-
• Business or academic strategy and in the sidebar), is a significant predictor tinguish learners who complete courses
change vision of academic persistence. In my opinion, from those who do not.
• Organization principles, needs, leaving the differing aspects of learner The neurobiology of learning and mem-
resources, and priorities control out of the discussion is an impor- ory is the source of learning differences,
• Individual and team needs tant omission. including differences in persistence.
• Stakeholders goals, priorities and Emotions (e.g., fear, frustration, passion,
needs Learning orientations motivation, and happiness) and inten-
• Key processes, interactions, and Neuroscientists are helping us identify tions (e.g., will, striving, and commit-
activities individual differences in learning, memo- ment) greatly impact personality charac-
San Francisco, California • November 12 — 14, 2003 Pre-Conference Workshops November 11, 2003
T H E E L E A R N I N G D E V E L O P E R S ’ J O U R N A L / J U LY 1 4 , 2 0 0 3
tions represent a comprehensive set of Conforming, and Resistant. These orien- to negative or positive responses, condi-
psychological factors (conative, affective, tations describe the range of learning tions, resources, results, expectations,
cognitive, and social) that influence how approaches (e.g., differing locus of con- and experiences.
individuals approach learning. (Editor’s trol) within any learner population. They
Note: See Dr. Martinez’ article, “What are summarized in Table 1, above. Extending the attrition
is Personalized Learning?” in The You can find more learning orienta- management model
eLearning Developers’ Journal, May 7, tions research information at http:// What additional considerations are
2002.) This perspective is more robust www.trainingplace.com/source/research there when implementing an attrition
than the primarily cognitive explanations /index.html management plan? With the long-term
of learning differences (e.g., learning These profiles show the degree to goal to reduce attrition, such a plan
styles) because it highlights the domi- which learners, following beliefs, values, should also improve learner motivation,
nant developing, guiding, and managing emotions, and intentions to learn, gener- independence, persistence, satisfaction
influences of emotions and intentions on ally commit effort and self-manage the and accomplishment. It is important to
cognitive and social processes. Personal- learning process to attain goals, monitor find the right balance between maximiz-
ization without including a whole-person or assess learning progress, and use ing individualized learning opportunities
neurological foundation is unsatisfactory reflection to improve future learning and accomplishment of business, educa-
and incomplete. opportunities. Depending on the specific tional, and performance goals. It is not
The Learning orientation model (sum- learning circumstances and the individ- enough to simply talk about attrition and
marized at http://www.trainingplace.com ual’s ability, a learner may cover a range persistence problems! These problems
/source/research/lomatrix.htm) pres- of tasks with a single learning orientation should be managed with a formalized
ents profiles for four dominant learning or they may move downwards or upwards attrition management plan offering tar-
5
orientations: Transforming, Performing, on the table of orientations in response geted strategies for implementation,
MANAGEMENT / strategies
management, and measured progress. whole-brain activity, learning processes, The next step is to use the “brain
When developing models for today’s and social interactions. This is to be research” foundations to develop an
more personalized online learning, there done in the context of instructional attrition management plan. In other
are two steps to take. The first is to goals, learner purpose, motivation, inde- words, consider those “personalization
explore, understand, and use some of pendence, persistence, and self-direct- characteristics” that particularly impact
the new information about extraordinary ed learning. attrition and persistence. This plan
should provide a framework within which
one can analyze and differentiate audi-
ences, identify key success attributes,
Do you have an predictors, and retention issues, track
attrition rates, and provide and evaluate
interesting story to tell? solutions that support retention and min-
imize attrition.
• One paragraph on your background or current position that makes you the one
A good attrition management plan needs to:
to tell this story. • Be flexible enough to change as the
• A working title for the article. needs change.
• Your contact information: name, job title, company, phone, email. This informa- • Ensure that the plan’s substance and
tion is to be for the writer of the article. We are unable to accept queries from foundation is the learner.
agents, public relations firms, or other third parties. • Ensure positive workplace, learning,
and social settings — in which learn-
All of this information should fit on one page. If the topic fits our editorial plan, Bill ers and learning is valued.
will contact you to schedule the manuscript deadline and the • Measure and report to management,
publication date, and to work out any other details. learners, and stakeholders.
• Represent core values and expected
6
T H E E L E A R N I N G D E V E L O P E R S ’ J O U R N A L / J U LY 1 4 , 2 0 0 3
Ruth Clark Conrad Gottfredson John Hartnett Bill Horton Kevin C. Moore
Author and Principal, Principal President Author and Principal Co-Founder
Clark Training & Conduit Tecknowledgy BlueMissile, Inc. William Horton Tier 1 Performance
Consulting Consulting Solutions
References
Martinez, M. (2002). What is Personalized Learning? The eLearning Martinez, M. & Bunderson, C. (2001). Foundations for Personalized
Developer’s Journal, May 7, 2002, 1-7. Web Learning Environments. Journal of Asychronous Learning
Networks, 4(2). Retrieved June 20, 2003, from http://www.aln.org/
Tinto, V. (1993). Taking Learner Retention Seriously: Rethinking the publications/magazine/v4n2/bunderson.asp
First Year of College. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. Retrieved June 20,
2003, from http://soeweb.syr.edu/Faculty/Vtinto/Files/ Martinez, M. (2003a). Learning Orientations Research (Overview).
AACRAOSpeech.pdf Retrieved June 20, 2003, from http://www.trainingplace.com/
source/research/overview.htm
http://216.239.37.100/search?q=cache:eN8bm21T7osC:www.ccsse.
http://www.collegeways.com/article_retention_revisited.htm
org/ssi/docs/Harvey-Smith_Alicia_Retention_Article.pdf+%22An+
Examination+of+the+Retention+Literature+and+Application+in+Learner
Symonds, W. (2003). University of Phoenix Online: Swift Rise.
+Success%22&hl=en&ie=UTF-8
BusinessWeek Online, June 23, 2003. Retrieved June 20, 2003, from
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/03_25/b3838628.
Kandel, E. (2002). Columbia News Video Forum Symposium:
htm
Perception, Memory and Art. Retrieved June 20, 2003, from
http://www.columbia.edu/cu/news/vforum/02/perception_memory_art/
University of Memphis (2002). Strategic Retention Planning. Retrieved
June 20, 2003, from http://oir.memphis.edu/ir_group/retention/
LeDoux, J. (1996). Emotional Brain: The Mysterious Underpinnings of
stu_dev/strat_retent_plan.pdf
Emotional Life. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Witte, J., Forbes, S., & Witte, M. (2002). Identity Theory and
LeDoux, J. (2002). Synaptic Self: How Our Brains Become Who We Are.
Persistence: A Tentative Synthesis of Tinto, Erikson, and Houle.
New York: Viking.
Journal of Integrative Psychology, 2(2). Retrieved June 20, 2003,
from http://www.integrativepsychology.org/articles/vol2_article2.htm
Martinez, M. (1999). Research Design, Models, and Methodologies for
Examining How Individuals Successfully Learn on the Web. Special
Research in Technical Communication, 46(4), 470-487.
learning needs, many educational institutions The eLearning Guild™ Resources, Resources, Resources
have upgraded the level of student-support is a Community of
Practice for designers, The Guild hosts the e-Learning industry’s
services and developed attrition management
developers, and managers of e-Learn-ing. most comprehensive resource knowledge
programs to identify and support “at risk” database. Currently there are over 2,300
learners. As a result, they can encourage learn- Through this member-driven community,
we provide high-quality learning opportuni- resources available. Members have
ers, as needed, to stay, be satisfied, and per- access to all of these resources and they
sist towards completion. An attrition manage- ties, networking services, resources, and
publications. Community members repre- can also post resources at any time!
ment plan is the first thing that can be done to
apply relevant interventions to im-prove attrition
sent a diverse group of instructional Guild Research
designers, content developers, web devel-
rates and support better learning, achieve- The Guild has an ongoing industry
opers, project managers, contractors, con-
ment, performance, and career development. research service that conducts surveys
sultants, and managers and directors of
Finally, collecting data about persistence on 20 topics each year. These topics
training and learning services — all of
associated with e-Learning and course com- are identified by the Research Advisory
whom share a common interest in
pletion has the potential benefit of guiding Committee. The data collected is available
e-Learning design, development, and
management decision-making with respect to for all members.
management.
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The Guild publishes the only online
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AUTHOR CONTACT “e-Journal” in the e-Learning industry that
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Dr. Margaret Martinez, CEO, The Training is focused on delivering real world “how to
stituency well. We are honored to have
Place, has worked in the fields of learning, make it happen in your organization” infor-
their active engagement and participation.
information, and technology for more than mation. The Journal is published weekly
The Guild has also established three com-
fifteen years. Previously, she was the and features articles written by both
mittees made up of active members who
Worldwide Training and Certification Director, industry experts and members who work
help steer its editorial, events program
WordPerfect Corporation. Dr. Martinez is a every day in environments just like yours.
and research efforts.
respected consultant on adult learning As an active member, you will have unlim-
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