Pengantar Teknik Industri

TIN 4103
 Lecture 13 & 14
• Outline:
– Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Produksi

• References:
– Smith, Spencer B., Computer-Based Production and
Inventory Control, Prentice-Hall, 1989.
– Tersine, Richard J., Principles of Inventory and Materials
Management, Prentice-Hall, 1994.
– Yuniar, Rahmi. PPT: PTI – Perencanaan dan Pengendalian
Produksi. PSTI-UB. 2011.
FORECASTING
 4

Manajemen Permintaan
 5

Pengelolaan Order Pesanan

Penawaran

Permintaan

Negosiasi

Perjanjian Kesepakatan
 What is Forecasting?
FORECAST:
• A statement about the future value of a variable of
interest such as demand.
• Forecasts affect decisions and activities throughout an
organization
– Accounting, finance
– Human resources
– Marketing
– MIS
– Operations
– Product / service design
 Uses of Forecasts

Accounting Cost/profit estimates

Finance Cash flow and funding

Human Resources Hiring/recruiting/training

Marketing Pricing, promotion, strategy

MIS IT/IS systems, services

Operations Schedules, MRP, workloads

Product/service design New products and services

 8

Peramalan Permintaan
 Common in all forecasts
• Assumes causal system
past ==> future
• Forecasts rarely perfect because of randomness
• Forecasts more accurate for
groups vs. individuals
• Forecast accuracy decreases
as time horizon increases
I see that you will
get an A this semester.
Steps in the Forecasting Process

“The forecast”

Step 6 Monitor the forecast

Step 5 Prepare the forecast
Step 4 Gather and analyze data
Step 3 Select a forecasting technique
Step 2 Establish a time horizon
Step 1 Determine purpose of forecast
Forecasting Models
Forecasting
Techniques

Qualitative Time Series

Models Methods

Delphi
Naive
Method

Jury of Moving
Executive Average
Opinion

Weighted
Sales Force
Moving Average
Composite

Consumer Exponential
Market Smoothing
Survey

Trend Analysis

Seasonality
Analysis

Multiplicative
Decomposition

Causal
Methods

Simple
Regression
Analysis

Multiple
Regression
Analysis
 Model Differences
• Qualitative – incorporates judgmental &
subjective factors into forecast.
• Time-Series – attempts to predict the future
by using historical data.
• Causal – incorporates factors that may
influence the quantity being forecasted into
the model
 Qualitative Forecasting Models
• Delphi method
– Iterative group process allows experts to make forecasts
– Participants:
• decision makers: 5 -10 experts who make the forecast
• staff personnel: assist by preparing, distributing, collecting, and
summarizing a series of questionnaires and survey results
• respondents: group with valued judgments who provide input to
decision makers
 Qualitative Forecasting Models (cont)

• Jury of executive opinion

– Opinions of a small group of high level managers, often in combination
with statistical models.
– Result is a group estimate.
• Sales force composite
– Each salesperson estimates sales in his region.
– Forecasts are reviewed to ensure realistic.
– Combined at higher levels to reach an overall forecast.
• Consumer market survey.
– Solicits input from customers and potential customers regarding
future purchases.
– Used for forecasts and product design & planning
 Time Series Forecasts

• Trend - long-term movement in data

• Seasonality - short-term regular variations in
data
• Cycle – wavelike variations of more than one
year’s duration
• Random variations - caused by chance
Pola Kecenderungan Data Historis Penjualan
 Forecast Error
• Bias - The arithmetic sum of Forecast Error  At  Ft
the errors
T
• Mean Square Error - Similar to MSE   | forecast error | 2 /T
simple sample variance t 1
T
  (At  Ft ) 2 / T
t 1

• MAD - Mean Absolute T T

Deviation MAD   | forecast error | /T   |At  Ft | / T
t 1 t 1

• MAPE – Mean Absolute T

Percentage Error MAPE  100 [|At  Ft | / At ] / T

t 1
 Example

Period Actual Forecast (A-F) |A-F| (A-F)^2 (|A-F|/Actual)*100

1 217 215 2 2 4 0,92
2 213 216 -3 3 9 1,41
3 216 215 1 1 1 0,46
4 210 214 -4 4 16 1,90
5 213 211 2 2 4 0,94
6 219 214 5 5 25 2,28
7 216 217 -1 1 1 0,46
8 212 216 -4 4 16 1,89
-2 22 76 10,26

MAD= 2,75
MSE= 9,50
MAPE= 1,28
 Controlling the Forecast
• Control chart
– A visual tool for monitoring forecast errors
– Used to detect non-randomness in errors

• Forecasting errors are in control if

– All errors are within the control limits
– No patterns, such as trends or cycles, are present
Controlling the forecast
 Quantitative Forecasting Models

• Time Series Method

– Naïve
• Whatever happened
recently will happen again
this time (same time
Ft  Yt 1
period)
• The model is simple and
flexible
• Provides a baseline to
Ft  Yt 4 : Quarterly data
measure other models
• Attempts to capture
Ft  Yt 12 : Monthly data
seasonal factors at the
expense of ignoring trend
 Naive Forecasts

Uh, give me a minute....

We sold 250 wheels last
week.... Now, next week
we should sell....

The forecast for any period equals

the previous period’s actual value.
Wallace Garden Supply
Naïve Forecast
Forecasting
Storage Shed Sales

Actual Naïve Absolute Percent Squared

Period Value Forecast Error Error Error Error
January 10 N/A
February 12 10 2 2 16,67% 4,0
March 16 12 4 4 25,00% 16,0
April 13 16 -3 3 23,08% 9,0
May 17 13 4 4 23,53% 16,0
June 19 17 2 2 10,53% 4,0
July 15 19 -4 4 26,67% 16,0
August 20 15 5 5 25,00% 25,0
September 22 20 2 2 9,09% 4,0
October 19 22 -3 3 15,79% 9,0
November 21 19 2 2 9,52% 4,0
December 19 21 -2 2 10,53% 4,0
0,818 3 17,76% 10,091
BIAS MAD MAPE MSE

Standard Error (Square Root of MSE) = 3,176619

 Naïve Forecast Graph
Wallace Garden - Naive Forecast

25

20

15
Sheds

Actual Value
Naïve Forecast
10

0
February March April May June July August September October November December
Period
 Naive Forecasts
• Simple to use
• Virtually no cost
• Quick and easy to prepare
• Easily understandable
• Can be a standard for accuracy
• Cannot provide high accuracy
 Techniques for Averaging
• Moving average
• Weighted moving average
 27

Metode Peramalan Deret Waktu

• Teknik peramalan yang menggunakan data-data
historis penjualan beberapa waktu terakhir dan
mengekstrapolasinya untuk meramalkan penjualan di
masa depan
• Peramalan deret waktu mengasumsikan pola
kecenderungan pemasaran akan berlanjut di masa
depan.
• Sebenarnya pendekatan ini cukup naif, karena
mengabaikan gejolak kondisi pasar dan persaingan
 28

Langkah-langkah Peramalan Deret Waktu

• Kumpulkan data historis penjualan

• Petakan dalam diagram pencar (scatter diagram)
• Periksa pola perubahan permintaan
• Identifikasi faktor pola perubahan permintaan
• Pilih metode peramalan yang sesuai
• Hitung ukuran kesalahan peramalan
• Lakukan peramalan untuk satu atau beberapa
periode mendatang
 Moving Averages
• Moving average – A technique that averages a
number of recent actual values, updated as new
values become available. n
 Ai
MAn = i=1

n
• The demand for tires in a tire store in the past 5
weeks were as follows. Compute a three-period
moving average forecast for demand in week 6.
83 80 85 90 94
Moving average & Actual demand
 Moving Averages
Wallace Garden Supply
Forecasting
Storage Shed Sales

Actual
Period Value Three-Month Moving Averages
January 10
February 12
March 16
April 13 10 + 12 + 16 / 3 = 12.67
May 17 12 + 16 + 13 / 3 = 13.67
June 19 16 + 13 + 17 / 3 = 15.33
July 15 13 + 17 + 19 / 3 = 16.33
August 20 17 + 19 + 15 / 3 = 17.00
September 22 19 + 15 + 20 / 3 = 18.00
October 19 15 + 20 + 22 / 3 = 19.00
November 21 20 + 22 + 19 / 3 = 20.33
December 19 22 + 19 + 21 / 3 = 20.67
 Moving Averages Forecast
Wallace Garden Supply
Forecasting 3 period moving average
Actual Value - Forecast

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis

Absolute Squared Absolute
Period Actual Value Forecast Error error error % error
Month 1 10
Month 2 12
Month 3 16
Month 4 13 12.667 0.333 0.333 0.111 2.56%
Month 5 17 13.667 3.333 3.333 11.111 19.61%
Month 6 19 15.333 3.667 3.667 13.444 19.30%
Month 7 15 16.333 -1.333 1.333 1.778 8.89%
Month 8 20 17.000 3.000 3.000 9.000 15.00%
Month 9 22 18.000 4.000 4.000 16.000 18.18%
Month 10 19 19.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00%
Month 11 21 20.333 0.667 0.667 0.444 3.17%
Month 12 19 20.667 -1.667 1.667 2.778 8.77%
Average 12.000 2.000 6.074 10.61%
Next period 19.667 BIAS MAD MSE MAPE
 Moving Averages Graph
Three Period Moving Average

25

20

15
Value

Actual Value
Forecast

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time
 Moving Averages
• Weighted moving average – More recent values in a
series are given more weight in computing the
forecast.
 Assumes data from some periods are more important than data
from other periods (e.g. earlier periods).
 Use weights to place more emphasis on some periods and less on
others.
Example:
– For the previous demand data, compute a weighted
average forecast using a weight of .40 for the most
recent period, .30 for the next most recent, .20 for the
next and .10 for the next.
– If the actual demand for week 6 is 91, forecast demand
for week 7 using the same weights.
 Techniques for Trend
• Develop an equation that will suitably describe
trend, when trend is present.

• The trend component may be linear or

nonlinear

• We focus on linear trends

Common Nonlinear Trends

Parabolic

Exponential

Growth
 Linear Trend Equation
Ft

Ft = a + bt

• Ft = Forecast for period t 0 1 2 3 4 5 t

• t = Specified number of time periods
• a = Value of Ft at t = 0
• b = Slope of the line
 Example
• Sales for over the last 5 weeks are shown
below:

Week: 1 2 3 4 5
Sales: 150 157 162 166 177

– Plot the data and visually check to see if a linear

trend line is appropriate.
– Determine the equation of the trend line
– Predict sales for weeks 6 and 7.
 Line chart
Sales

180
175
170
165
160
Sales

Sales
155
150
145
140
135
1 2 3 4 5
Week
Calculating a and b

n  (ty) -  t y
b =
2
n t - (  t) 2

 y - b t
a =
n
Linear Trend Equation Example
t y
2
Week t Sales ty
1 1 150 150
2 4 157 314
3 9 162 486
4 16 166 664
5 25 177 885

 t = 15  t = 55
2
 y = 812  ty = 2499
( t)2 = 225
 Linear Trend Calculation
5 (2499) - 15(812) 12495 -12180
b = = = 6.3
5(55) - 225 275 - 225

812 - 6.3(15)
a = = 143.5
5

y = 143.5 + 6.3t
 Linear Trend plot
Actual data Linear equation

180

175

170

165
160

155
150

145
140
135
1 2 3 4 5
 Problem 1
• National Mixer Inc. sells can openers.
Monthly sales for a seven-month
period were as follows:
Month Sales
– Forecast September sales volume (1000)
using each of the following: Feb 19
• A five-month moving average Mar 18
• The naive approach Apr 15
• A weighted average using .60 for May 20
August, .30 for July, and .10 for June. Jun 18
Jul 22
Aug 20
 Recall: Problem 1
• National Mixer Inc. sells can openers.
Monthly sales for a seven-month
period were as follows:
Month Sales
(1000)
– Plot the monthly data Feb 19
Mar 18
– Forecast September sales volume
Apr 15
using a line trend equation
May 20
– Compute MAD, MSE, and MAPE Jun 18
each method of forecast. Jul 22
– Which method of forecast seems least Aug 20
appropriate?
MODEL PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN (INVENTORY
MODELS)
 KLASIFIKASI DEMAND
• Independent Demand → kebutuhan akan suatu item barang
tidak tergantung item yang lain.
– Misalnya kebutuhan barang untuk memenuhi permintaan pembeli di
sebuah toko, kebutuhan bahan baku utama dari produk yang
kebutuhannya ditentukan berdasarkan demand forecasting.
• Dependent Demand → kebutuhan akan item tertentu
tergantung/terkait pada kebutuhan terhadap item yang lain.
Ketergantungan antar item bisa berbentuk :
– ketergantungan vertikal : mis. kebutuhan dari komponen penyusun
subrakitan/ produk jadi.
– ketergantungan horizontal : mis. kebutuhan dr komponen pelengkap
(bahan pembantu) yang menyertai produk.
 FUNGSI PERSEDIAAN :
• Mengurangi ketergantungan antar tahap dalam mata rantai sistem
produksi – distribusi.
• Mempertahankan stabilitas penggunaan tenaga kerja karena
fluktuasi demand.
• Mengantisipasi kemungkinan terjadinya gangguan yang berupa
keterlambatan pasokan atau berhentinya aktivitas dalam sistem
produksi.
• Mengambil keuntungan dng memanfaatkan potongan harga untuk
pembelian dlm jumlah besar.
• Mengantisipasi tejadinya kenaikan harga barang karena inflasi.
• Mengantisipasi terjadinya stock out karena permintaan melebihi
perkiraan.
KLASIFIKASI PERSEDIAAN (INVENTORY)
1. Berdasarkan Fungsi :
• Decoupling Inventory
• Seasonal Inventory (Anticipation Stock)
• Transit Inventory (Movement/Pipeline Inventory)
• Safety/Buffer Inventory (Stok Penyangga/Pengaman)

2. Berdasarkan Karakteristik Demand :

– Distribution inventory
– Manufacturing inventory
KLASIFIKASI PERSEDIAAN (INVENTORY)
3. Berdasarkan Status Material :
– Raw Material
– Finished Part
– Component Part
– Subassembly Material
– Work In-Process (WIP)
– Finished Goods
 Introduction to Basic Inventory
Models
• The purpose of inventory theory is to determine
rules that management can use to minimize the costs
associated with maintaining inventory and meeting
customer demand.
• Inventory models answer the following questions
1. When should an order be placed for a product?
2. How large should each order be?
 Costs Involved in Inventory Models
• The inventory models that we will discuss
involve some or all of the following costs:
– Ordering and Setup Cost
• These costs do not depend on the size of the order.
They typically include things like paperwork, billing or
machine setup time if the product is made internally.
– Unit Purchasing Cost
• This cost is simply the variable cost associated with
purchasing a single unit. Typically, the unit purchasing
cost includes the variable labor cost, variable overhead
cost, and raw material cost.
– Holding or Carrying Cost
• This is the cost of carrying one unit of inventory for one
time period. The holding costs usually includes storage
cost, insurance cost, taxes on inventory and others.
– Stockout or Shortage Cost
• When a customer demands a product and the demand is
not met on time, a stockout, or shortage, is said to occur. If
they will accept delivery at a later date, we say the
demands are back-ordered. This case is often referred to
as the backlogged demand case. If they will not accept
late delivery, we are in the lost sales case. These costs are
often harder to measure than other costs.
 BIAYA TOTAL INVENTORY
• Biaya total inventory = Ordering cost + Purchase cost + Holding cost +
Stockout cost .

Total cost
Biaya
perunit

Holding cost

Purchase cost
Ordering cost

Q0 (Q optimal) Q (Unit)
 MODEL INVENTORY CONTROL YANG
DETERMINISTIK

MODEL PURCHASE ORDER QUANTITY ATAU

ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY (EOQ)

EOQ, or Economic Order Quantity, is

defined as the optimal quantity of orders
that minimizes total variable costs required
to order and hold inventory.
How to use EOQ in your organization

How much inventory should we

order each month?

The EOQ tool can be used to model the amount of

inventory that we should order each month.
 ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY (EOQ)

• Asumsi :
– Besarnya permintaan (demand ) tertentu dengan
laju permintaan konstan
– Harga persatuan barang konstan (tidak ada diskon)
– Lead time konstan ( L= 0)
– Biaya simpan (holding cost) diketahui
– Begitu datang, semua barang yang dipesan bisa
langsung masuk inventory (kedatangan barang
seketika)
– Tidak terjadi stockout.
 How EOQ Works

The Principles Behind EOQ: The Total Cost Curve

& 
 How EOQ Works
The Principles Behind EOQ: The Holding Costs

Keeping inventory on hand

Interest
Insurance
Taxes
Theft
Obsolescence
Storage Costs
 Mengapa Holding Cost Naik?

 Banyak unit yang harus disimpan

Purchase Order
Purchase Order
Description Qty.
Description Qty.
Microwave 1
Microwave 1000
Order quantity
Order quantity
 How EOQ Works
The Principles Behind EOQ: The Holding Costs

Interest

Obsolescence

Storage
 How EOQ Works
The Principles Behind EOQ: The Order Costs

Primarily the labor costs associated with processing

the order:
Ordering and requisition
A portion of the freight if the amounts vary
according to the size of the order
Receiving, inspecting, stocking
Invoice processing
 Mengapa Order Costs Turun?

• Cost is spread over more units

1 Order (Postage $ 0.32) 1000 Orders (Postage $320)

Purchase Order PurchaseOrder

Purchase Order
Description
PurchaseOrder
Purchase Order
Description Qty.
Qty. Description Qty.
Microwave 1000 Description
Microwave
Description Qty.1
Qty.
Microwave 11
Microwave
Microwave 1
Jumlah
Order
 How large should your orders be?

• If your orders are too large, you’ll have excess inventory and high holding
costs

• If your orders are too small, you will have to place more orders to meet
demand, leading to high ordering costs

Order Size Holding Costs Ordering Costs

Too LARGE High Low

Too SMALL Low High

• EOQ helps you find the balance!!!

64
D = jumlah permintaan (demand)
P = purchase cost perunit
C = ordering cost persatu kali pesan
I = prosentase biaya simpan perunit perperioda
H = holding cost perunit perperioda = IP
Q = besarnya pemesanan perkali pesan

unit
Q

t1 t2 t3 t4 tn t
• Ordering cost perperioda = frekuensi pemesanan dalam 1 perioda x
D
C= C
Q
• Purchase cost perperioda = jumlah kebutuhan perperioda x P = DP

• Holding cost perperioda = rata-rata banyaknya barang yang

Q
disimpan perperioda x H = H
2
D Q
• Total cost inventory : TC = C + DP + H
Q 2

• TC akan minimum jika : = dTC d 2TC

0 dan
2
0
dQ d Q
• Q (besarnya pemesanan) yang memberikan biaya total
minimum adalah :
 2 DC 
Q  
*

 H 

• Nilai Q* biasa disebut dengan Economic Order Quantity

(EOQ) atau jumlah pemesanan yang paling ekonomis.
 How EOQ Works
The EOQ Formula

Review and Summary of the EOQ Formula

Here is the a graphic representation of the EOQ equation

 Model EOQ (kapan pesan?)

Level Inventori
Optimal Average
Order Inventory
Quantity (Q*/2)
(Q*)

Reorder
Point
(ROP)

Time
Lead Time
 DL
• Jika lead time (L) ≠ 0 ; maka unit
n
• Reorder point (ROP) =
n  banyaknya unit / satuan w aktuL dalam 1perioda
• Misal: 1 perioda = 1 tahun
– Jika L = dalam satuan bulan → n = 12
– Jika L = dalam satuan minggu → n = 52
– Jika L = dalam satuan hari → n = 365

D
• Frekuensi Pemesanan Optimal perperioda = * kali
Q

• Waktu Siklus Opimal (Rata-rata waktu antar pemesanan) =

Q*
ts  x banyaknya unit / satuan waktu dalam 1 periode
D
 Example 2
• Sebuah perusahaan manufaktur pertahunnya membutuhkan 10.000
unit bahan baku tertentu dengan harga Rp. 300.000,- perunit. Biaya
pemesanan bahan tersebut Rp. 400.000,- setiap kali pesan. Biaya
simpan perunit bahan baku pertahun adalah 33% dari harga beli
perunit. Jika laju penggunaan bahan baku tersebut konstan, maka
tentukan :
– Besarnya pemesanan yang paling optimal
– Biaya total inventory
– Frekuensi pemesanan dalam 1 tahun
– Rata-rata waktu antar pemesanan
– Reorder point, jika lead time kedatangan bahan baku tersebut adalah 1
minggu
– Reorder point, jika lead time kedatangan bahan baku tersebut adalah 4
hari
•
• D = 10.000 unit pertahun
• C = Rp. 400.000,- perkali pesan
• P = Rp. 300.000,- perunit
• I = 33%; sehingga H = IP = 33%(300.000) =
Rp.100.000,- perunit perthn
a. Besarnya pemesanan paling optimal :
2(10.000)(400.000)
Q*   284,27  284 unit
100.000
b. Biaya Total (TC)
D Q*
 * C  DP  H
Q 2
10.000 284
 400.000  (10.000)(300.000)  100.000
284 2
 Rp.3.028.284.507,
c. Frekuensi pemesanan dalam 1 tahun =
D 10.000
*
  35,211  36 kali
Q 284
d.Rata-rata waktu antar pemesanan
Q* 284
ts   x12 bulan  0,3408 bulan
D 10.000
284
 x52 min ggu  1,4768 min ggu
10.000
284
 x365 hari  10,366 hari
10.000

e. Reorder point, jika L= 1 minggu :

DL (10.000) x1
ROP  unit   192,307  192 unit
52 52
f. Reorder point, jika L= 4 hari :
DL (10.000) x4
ROP  unit   109,589  110 unit
365 365