Measure Investment Proposal (MIP)
Measure Investment Proposal (MIP)
Measure Investment Proposal (MIP)
COMPRISING
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Section 1: The Context for Investment
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car;
• Improve safety for all travellers and promote walking and cycling and
public transport as healthy forms of travel; and
Currently the majority of public transport services in here are delivered under
the “Translink” brand name by Ulsterbus Ltd, Citybus Ltd (operating as
“Metro”) and Northern Ireland Railways Ltd. The companies are subsidiaries
of the Northern Ireland Transport Holding Company (NITHC) a public
corporation which is responsible to the Department for Regional Development
for the operation and delivery of public transport services. NITHC is the
seventh largest corporation here with over 4,000 employees and, in 2006/7 it
handled 76.1 million passenger journeys. Its operations are subsidised by a
mix of capital and revenue grants and government also funds concessionary
fares and fuel duty rebate. For 2005/06 total government support amounted to
£112.4 million (capital £60.1m; revenue £52.3m).
The then Minister David Cairns recently announced 22 August 2006 a revision
of public transport structures here with the setting up of a Passenger
Transport Authority (PTA). This will be responsible, from 2010/11 onwards,
for specifying public transport provision and will contract with public transport
providers for its delivery. The PTA will take on a number of functions currently
residing in the Department and in the NITHC Group of companies.
Also included in this MIP, under other public transport initiatives, is the Rathlin
Island ferry service. Rathlin Island is the north’s only inhabited offshore island
and is located 6 miles from the coastal town of Ballycastle. The island has a
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resident population of 90 persons. Rathlin Island is a tourist attraction
receiving 16,000 visitors in 2004.
The ferry service is a lifeline connection to the mainland for the resident
islanders as well as being essential for tourism. The quality of the existing
ferry fails to meet the expectations of many visitors with respect to shelter,
design and layout. To maintain a high quality and safe service to the resident
islanders and to continue to attract tourists’ investment is needed in the ferry
service.
Over the 5 years from 2002/03 to 2006/07 capital investment was made in
support of bus and rail services provided by the Translink operating
companies as follows:
This capital investment helped to facilitate the purchase of almost 550 new
buses and 23 new train sets to replace old vehicles and trains. It also
enabled the upgrade of 20 rail track miles and saw the construction of the new
train care facility, the refurbishment of Central Station and various other
improvements completed or currently underway at most stations and halts.
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2005/06 figures. Less information is available from DfT Dublin sources but
where this has been identified it has been incorporated.
Rail Services
NI GB Ireland
Bus Services
Sources: Translink, DfT London, DfT Dublin and annual reports and accounts.
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• Journeys per capita are 22% of the level in GB and 44% of the level in
Ireland. Such low take up is influenced by the relatively small size of
the network.
• In terms of bus provision the north has more buses per 100,000 people
than Ireland but less than GB.
• The north has the lowest level of bus kilometres per capita and also the
lowest level of subsidy (note DfT Dublin subsidy estimate excludes fuel
duty rebate which accounts for almost 18% of total NI bus subsidy).
While Ireland has relatively fewer buses they must be used more
intensively.
While there is no historical profile for rapid transit the Belfast Metropolitan
Transport Plan sets out transport schemes and proposals up to 2015 which
will support development proposals within the Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan
and together will provide an integrated approach to the future development of
the Belfast Metropolitan Area.
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Availability of Rapid Transit Services across UK & ROI
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Fixed Infrastructure Assets
Rail
• 120.8 route miles of single (20.05 mothballed) and 86.2 route miles of
double main line track comprising 185 sets of points;
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• Structures assets include underline and overline bridges, earthworks
and sea defences.
Description Number
Ballast Regulator 2
Tamper 3
Compact Tamper 1
Relay Gantry 1
Relay Beam 1
Flash Butt Welder 1
On-Track Rail Threading Machine (PRD6) 1
Vehicle Motor Traction Unit (VMT) 1
Road Rail Excavators 2
Assorted Flat Bed Wagons,
Ballast Hoppers etc 24
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Bus
• 23 Bus Stations;
• 26 Bus Garages and Workshops; and
• 3 integrated bus / rail stations at Europa, Bangor and Coleraine.
• office locations;
• training facilities; and
• call centre.
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Section 2: Rationale for Investment
Public sector transport provision also addresses the externality of time delays
imposed by private car users on other travellers. Limited road space results in
congestion which in turn means longer journey times and longer journey times
mean lost output to the economy. Translink bus and rail services and the
rapid transit proposals address the issue of congestion by moving people to
destinations in a more cost effective way than by private car.
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Government intervention through the implementation of the Investment
Strategy for Northern Ireland.
The draft Regional Economic Strategy also highlights the need to align itself
with the Northern Ireland Sustainable Development Strategy and recognises
that the north in achieving a strong and stable economy must ensure that it is
a sustainable economy. In essence this means that the north must become
more resource efficient both in its production and consumption. The north
must also aim to accept its share of global responsibility for reducing
emissions of greenhouse gases and an increased use of public transport can
help to address this problem.
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External Factors
In 2005 the NI economy grew by 2% in real terms. DETI has provided Gross
Value Added forecasts up to 2016 of 2.5% – 3% growth projections per
annum, covering most of the ISNI 2 period. This compares to projected
growth of 4% - 4.5% in Ireland. In the absence of any measure to manage
traffic demand, traffic will increase in line with this economic growth resulting
in congestion that will have significant adverse economic and environmental
effects on NI. Investment in, and diversion of passengers to, bus, rail and
rapid transit will be an important factor in keeping the NI economy free flowing
and able to compete with the rest of the UK, Ireland and Europe.
The benefits of a free flowing economy are not solely delivered in urban
areas. A good quality public transport system allows people to travel from
rural areas to employment in urban areas. In addition good rural bus services
alleviate the problem of social exclusion for low income rural households
without access to a car.
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north enters a critical phase of economic growth it is important that the level of
investment in public transport infrastructure here does not become a
constraint.
The population here increased by 4.3% between 1996 and 2006 to 1.7 million
and will be over 1.8 million by 2021.
Although car ownership per thousand of the population grew from 510 in 2001
to 581 per 1000 population in 2005 it is still substantially below the GB
average of 634 per 1,000 of population. A high quality public transport system
is required to compete with private car use during peak travel times for the
benefit of the local economy and environment. It is also needed to offset the
relatively low levels of car ownership here and to address issues of social
inclusion by giving households without access to a car a suitable mode of
transportation.
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Despite having lower levels of car ownership than in GB, the north has higher
levels of commuters who use the car for home to work travel. Figures for 2004
show that 83% of all home to work journeys were by car. This compared to
81% in Wales, 71% in England and 69% in Scotland. It is also much higher
than in Ireland where, according to the 2002 Census, 62% of people used
their private car to get to work.
Recent investment in the Citybus fleet and its re-launch as Metro in February
2005 resulted in an increase of 14% in passenger numbers in the two years to
the end of 2006/07. The Metro service runs at capacity during morning and
evening peak times and a Metro phase 2 project has been approved. This will
introduce 25 additional buses on three routes to increase frequencies and on
the basis of success, measured by increased passenger numbers, a further
33 additional buses will be introduced on other routes.
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times in urban areas; lower levels of pollution; and increased social inclusion
for those dependent on public transport.
The Department recently took forward, in conjunction with DFP and SIB, an
option appraisal for train services here. In determining passenger demand this
included the assumption that planned investment in roads would go ahead.
The appraisal considered options for enhancing existing rail services and also
for truncating the network. On that basis, the preferred way forward for rail is
as follows:
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• For people who don’t own cars it will improve access to employment,
health, education and social needs and have a positive impact on the
Government’s anti poverty, social exclusion and sustainability
strategies;
• For the Titanic Quarter route it will act as a incentive for outward and
inward investment initiatives from Invest NI and DETI;
• Both routes will positively impact on DSD public realm work ongoing
within Belfast;
• To help change travel culture from the car to public transport with
benefits on reducing traffic congestion and road safety; and
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DRD will also examine the feasibility of potential Rapid Transit pilot routes in
the Belfast Metropolitan Area.
Recent experience here has indicated that investment in rail does not come at
the expense of reduced bus travel and vice versa. Taking Belfast as an
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example the positive, and mutually beneficial, benefits from investing in both
bus and rail can be highlighted by reviewing the recent investment in both
areas.
The investment in new buses in recent years has allowed Translink to deliver
a more attractive urban bus service in terms of a more modern fleet (average
fleet age is now 6 years compared with 9.8 in 2002/03 and the accessibility
rate is 96% compared with 48% in 2002/03) and improved operational
performance resulting in higher passenger journeys and higher levels of
passenger satisfaction (72% compared with 64% in 2002/03).
In addition to this increase in bus usage recent DRD investment in new trains
has also helped to generate increased passenger journeys on the core
network of lines which service the Belfast area. Since new trains have been
deployed on the Bangor and Portadown lines passenger journeys have
increased by 29% on both lines between 2004/05 and 2006/07. On the Larne
line, which still generally uses old trains, demand fell by 6% over the same
period (however some catch up is underway after line closure for track relay in
2005/06). Such passenger journey increases highlight the attraction to
passengers of the faster journeys, increased frequencies and greater comfort
that new trains bring.
1
Adjusted for the re-branding of some previously Ulsterbus routes to Metro
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increased passenger journeys on both modes of transport. The current
position is that Metro is working at capacity at peak times and the Bangor and
Portadown rail lines are also close to capacity without any sign of demand
falling. To restrain bus and rail capacity at the existing level is therefore not a
good option as this capacity will soon be breached and demand will transfer to
private car. Additional investment is required in bus, rail and rapid transit if
Belfast is not to suffer from increased levels of congestion which will have a
negative impact on the city as a dynamic economy with goods, services and
labour flowing freely.
It is not only Belfast that has benefited from recent investment in bus and rail.
Passengers on the Derry line have also enjoyed the benefit of the new trains.
This has resulted in an increase in passenger journeys of 20% between
2004/05 and 2006/07. The main type of bus alternative against the Derry rail
line would come from the Ulsterbus Goldline inter city service which has also
benefited from the recent investment in bus services. Between 2005/06 and
2006/07 Goldline passenger journeys increased by over 5%. This again
indicates that investment in both bus and rail brings benefits to both modes in
the form of increased passenger journeys and that there is not a mutually
exclusive relationship.
While the introduction of new trains on the Derry line brought about increased
punctuality further investment would bring about increased frequency and
allow the introduction of a timetable that would deliver trains into both Derry
and Coleraine at times that would suit commuters (currently the early train into
Derry arrives too late for people commuting to work). Such investment would
attract many additional passengers away from car use to the benefit of
reduced congestion in Derry.
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It is widely reflected in the public transport investment strategies of GB and
Ireland that investment in both bus and rail services is essential if sufficient
numbers of journeys are to be attracted from private car use to public
transport. This is an important principle which underpinned the RTS and
which has also been incorporated within this proposal.
If new buses and trains cannot be procured, and the associated infrastructure
maintained and improved, Translink will be forced to operate with aged and
increasingly unreliable assets until they are operationally unfit for use. It will
very soon become evident that comfort, reliability and safety have been
compromised to the detriment of staff, customers and the general public.
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DSO and PSA objectives will be missed and a failure to comply with safety
and environmental legislation will be obvious as congestion levels increase
leading to longer journey times and a less free flowing local economy. There
will be reduced support to economic growth, especially from foreign
investment, and failure to provide for social inclusion. Costs of future retrieval
to the existing network size will be significantly higher if essential planned
maintenance opportunities are missed.
If the rapid transit bid were not to proceed it would have the following adverse
impacts:
• Failure to realise the transport vision contained in the RDS and RTS;
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Section 3: Description of Programmes
Details of funding proposed under this measure are set out below allocated
across the various programmes.
CAPITAL
All capital figures in 2008 prices (£)
First three years: Following seven Total
Programme 2008 - 2011 years: 2011-2018
REVENUE
All revenue figures in 2008 prices (£)
First three years: Following seven Total
Programme 2008 - 2011 years: 2011-2018
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Greater Belfast Rapid Transit
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need to make adjustment to the bid figures. Dependent on the outcome of the
current feasibility studies this bid will allow the Department to initiate the
design and build stage of the project. There is further consideration presently
being given to extending the routes to Queen’s University Belfast, the Royal
Victoria Hospital and beyond into West Belfast. This may result in a further
consequent adjustment to the bid figures. The consultants are due to report
towards the end of Summer 2007 but this may be extended if the routes are
lengthened. The ISNI2 bid includes a proportion for revenue purposes as the
Department recognises that to progress the introduction of rapid transit
services for Belfast will require a significant commitment and the need to
establish a dedicated team to project manage the scheme.
Rail Programme
As the final stage in the delivery of these targets the Department has set up a
Steering Group to oversee an evaluation of investment to date and to
appraise options for future investment. While NIR has brought 23 new Class
3000 trains into service (the final unit entering operational service in
September 2005) it still has a significant level of old rolling stock. A total of 13
Class 450, ex-Gatwick and Class 80 trains will be life expired between 2010
and 2012. Given the time required to produce and take delivery of new train
sets the process of identifying suitable options for replacement has begun
with this project.
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Railways comprise a substantial asset for a region connecting people with
jobs and providing accessibility for communities and services. In addition they
represent a key means of reducing harmful emissions from transport
compared to travel by road. Elsewhere the strategic importance of railways is
being recognised with additional investment. In Scotland the Scottish
Executive has published a plan for the next 20 years which is designed to
ensure that Scotland’s railway network continues to improve. The plan
involves enhancing the existing rail infrastructure and delivering a programme
of major projects together with ongoing replacement of rolling stock. In
Ireland the Government has embarked upon a major Transport initiative
‘Transport 21’ costing some €34 bn over the period 2006 to 2015. The
programme has a heavy emphasis on railway projects with these estimated to
cost some €16 bn. While the majority of this will be aimed at the greater
Dublin area there are also substantial amounts for the railway outside Dublin
including the construction of the Western Rail Corridor. Transport 21 builds
upon considerable recent investment in the railway network. Passenger
numbers have increased substantially as a result and in 2004-05 Iarnrod
Eireann carried nearly 38 million passengers, making it the fastest growing
railway network in Europe.
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The appraisal has evaluated a number of options some of which rank higher
than others in terms of NPV. It is recognised that affordability is also a key
issue and for the purposes of this ISNI2 submission and we have quantified
the costs associated with the following requirements:
¾ retain the whole of the existing network and replace existing life expired
trains by 2012 – the base case – this requires the purchase of 13
replacement diesel multiple units (DMUs) with the expectation that
passenger journeys will increase by 2.3 million over the 2006/07 level
to 10.9 million by 2019/20;
¾ to enhance services for the greater Belfast area - this requires the
purchase of an additional 5 DMUs over the base case to increase
capacity (i.e. longer trains) on the core lines with an expected increase
of 1 million passenger journeys over the base case by 2019/20;
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CAPITAL
All capital figures in 2008 prices (£)
First three years: Following seven Total
Programme 2008 - 2011 years: 2011-2018
REVENUE
All revenue figures in 2008 prices (£)
First three years: Following seven Total
Programme 2008 - 2011 years: 2011-2018
Bus Programme
The case relating to the bus programme (1.2.3) assumes that the current
practice of providing for replacement of the fleet in pursuit of RTS fleet and
vehicle age targets will continue. The forward programme comprises:
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All Capital Figures in 2008 Prices (£)
Programme First three years: Following Total
2008 - 2011 seven years:
2011 – 2018
Within the infrastructure component, the focus shifts from bus stations to bus
engineering facilities and engineering workshops. Modification of stations will
however be required to accommodate new low floor bus design and possible
centre door location buses.
The proposed investment also covers the roll-out of a two stage project, part
one of which is already approved, involving the purchase of 25 additional
double deck buses to increase frequencies on the quality bus corridors
forming the core Metro routes in Belfast.
Other capital expenditure is needed within the bus sector for general works
including: IT renewal and enhancement; office refurbishment; and
replacement of engineering equipment to ensure the ongoing efficiency and
safety of operations. Illustratively, firm estimates for £7m for IT requirements
have been prepared for years 1 and 2 of the ISNI period. These relate to a
Bus Information System, a Corporate Asset Management system and
equipping buses with on board computers. In the longer term it would cover a
Ticketing System, an Integrated Financial Accounting System and further
investment in Corporate Asset Management controls. Failure to invest in IT
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will adversely impact on the ability to produce management information
efficiently and will impair the quality of services provided. Similar arguments
can be developed over the other investment areas. Collectively these
investment requirements have been quantified at over £43m over the 10 year
period to 2018.
The Department has responsibility for providing a ferry to Rathlin Island, the
north’s only inhabited offshore island. The current vessel offers a roll-on roll-
off (RORO) service but is nearing the end of its useful working life. The
operator Caledonian MacBrayne (Calmac) is wholly owned by the Scottish
Executive and may not be permitted by its parent Department to operate
outside of the Scottish undertaking for much longer. Purchase of the existing
vessel (even if it was made available) does not offer a long term solution and
efforts to identify other suitable vessels have thus far failed.
The current proposal targets specific objectives for the service reflecting DSO
3 ‘to maintain and develop a safe transportation network’, viz:
Passenger Ferry
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travel to the island. Increased tourism will generate economic benefits to the
island as a whole increasing the capacity for paid employment. This will
necessitate a higher level of subsidy for crew and running costs estimated at
£250,000 per year. However, fares income will increase by around £12,000,
in total, during the summer months of July and August - figure is based on
recent fares trends plus an expected 4% increase in passenger traffic due to
enhanced carrying capacity and improved level of comfort on a purpose built
passenger vessel.
Once the new RoRo vessel is fully operational, scope may exist to dispose of
the passenger vessel, generating a cash return to the service.
Contracts have already been awarded for the £17m combined New Rail
Vision and DDA projects, approval is awaited for the £12m track life extension
project (Ballymena to Coleraine); tenders have issued for Project
Management services for the Knockmore / Lurgan relay and tenders for a new
railway station at Newry are due to be issued shortly. Contracts have also
been awarded for most of the bus replacements planned through 2008/09.
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Revenue consequences
The 2010 new trains project has examined ongoing revenue and cost
streams. The cost streams will be partly covered by passenger revenue and
partly covered by an increase of £480k per annum in the Public Service
Obligation.
These have been discussed at earlier sections of this MIP. In short, failure to
invest will result in a marked reduction in reliability and failure to achieve the
DSO to improve public transport services. Incremental losses in operating
efficiency will impact on the way in which Translink can deliver public
transport services, making public transport a much less attractive option. This
will have an adverse effect on environment, economy and integration/social
inclusion. Without the proposed investment the following problems will arise:
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• A good public transport system helps address the problem of
sustainability and carbon emissions by reducing the average level of
pollution associated with each journey undertaken.
Impacts of Investment
New trains and buses, and associated public transport infrastructure, will lead
directly to improved availability, choice and accessibility for passengers.
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transport services in NI. This will extend to the introduction of private sector
operators to the delivery of these services.
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Section 4: Delivery Mechanisms
Rail and bus projects are managed by Translink in accordance with the
Infrastructure Manual of Project Management Procedures, compatible with
both Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) of the Project
Management Institute (PMI) and Association of Project Management (APM)
organisations and with PRINCE2 methodology. The process is based on a
Gateway Process with review points at end of: Inception; Feasibility;
Appraisal; Design; Procurement; Implementation / Construction (Handover); &
Operation and Maintenance (Closure).
NITHC Board
Executive Group
Contracts Engineer
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The Project Control department is responsible for coordinating programme
planning and ensuring projects are managed in accordance with the
Procedures. The Project Control Manager is supported by a Planning
Engineer and Contracts Engineer in coordinating programme development
and monitoring and tracking progress and compliance of projects within the
overall programme. Project progress/performance is reported on a monthly
basis and performance on ‘cost’, ‘quality’ and ‘programme’ are measured
using a traffic light parameters system.
Estimated Completion Date Quality Plan complied with Estimated Final Cost of
within 10% Extension of Base but; project between 90% and
Line Programme Some significant changes to 100% of Letter of Offer (inc
approved Project Scope Optimism Bias), or Individual
without compromising Client Contracts exceeded up to
Requirements 10%
The Project Control manager liaises closely with the Head of Financial
Planning in this process.
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Resources and skills to deliver the investment bid
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• Project benefit evaluations and project monitoring evaluations are
completed.
Gateway Review
The bid for rapid transit has presently been constructed to include for the
moment the total cost of the proposal excluding developer contributions and
will be subsequently adjusted once the outcome of the studies is known.
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Sustainable Development Champion
Procurement for bus and rail is the role of the Purchasing Department of
Translink which has achieved COPE accreditation. In achieving COPE
accreditation, Translink has ensured that contractors include employability
measures.
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Section 5: Contribution to the three ISNI cross cutting strategic
objectives
The increased standard of the RSTN in terms of the retention of the existing
rail network and the enhancement of and addition to bus services and
facilities would also offer benefits in terms of facilitating the movement of
people and goods, attracting inward investment and increasing attractiveness
to visitors, including business travellers and tourists.
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Objective B: to facilitate greater social inclusion and cohesion from
investment in infrastructure that will promote equality of opportunity
and good relations, reflect the objectives of A Shared Future, target
areas of deprivation and social need, and achieve appropriate spatial
balance across the Region.
Public transport here targets social need. For many citizens it is the only
method of accessing areas of economic opportunity. Translink is available to
and is accessed by all citizens regardless of their section 75 category. The
programme will have zero impact on race, marital status, religious belief,
political opinion and sexual orientation categories.
Again there is a positive impact for those with dependents with the target of
100% accessibility for vehicles and improved access to passenger facilities
and older people will also benefit from improved accessibility.
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The new trains, buses and rapid transit vehicles have lower emissions than
the generation being replaced. Increased public transport capacity will reduce
the number of cars on the road thereby reducing the environmental impact of
congestion. Train and bus stations will continue to be designed and built to
be sympathetic to the local environment.
Rail 578 32.1 Switch over 1 million Maintain rail connection Diversion of journeys
Programme – passenger journeys to north and north west away from private car
baseline plus from road to rail by Ireland to sustain social use will reduce carbon
core, Derry 2018/19. This will cohesion and inclusion, emissions and address
and Dublin line reduce journey times on with 2.2 million the challenges of
enhancements increasingly congested passenger journeys on climate change.
urban and rural roads the Derry and Portrush
and contribute to a more lines by 2018/19.
free flowing economy.
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Programme Total Total Impact on Objective A Impact on Objective B Impact on Objective C
Capital Revenue
£m £m
Rathlin Island 7.5 1.5 Maintain the “life-line” Maintain social This is an essential
passenger and economic connection of cohesion and inclusion piece of transport
roll on roll off Rathlin Island to the rest by sustaining access to infrastructure necessary
ferry of the north for the 70 goods and services for for the built environment
(approx) island residents people resident on of Rathlin Island
and well as develop the Rathlin Island. residents.
tourism potential of the
island. Currently trips
increase to around
11,000 in July and
August compared to
1,000 on average for
each remaining month
of the year.
TOTAL (for 1,061.5 45.6
this Measure)
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