How to Use Keepa to Analyze a Book's Demand,

Sales History, and Potential Profitability

by Dan Fagan

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 BEFORE YOU READ FURTHER!!!
I put this guide together in December 2016 and I do not
sell on Amazon anymore. I have no idea what fulfillment
and storage fees look like in 2021.

When I wrote this 5 years ago, I'm pretty sure I could sell
a book for $8 and still profit $3. Please be mindful that
some of the guidelines I wrote about regarding my
buying criteria and estimated profits might be considered
horrible advice today.

I wrote this as a reference that might help others learn to

read Keepa graphs and make better sourcing and pricing
decisions. All of the concepts I wrote about can still be
used to read Keepa charts today. There are 25 detailed
examples that should be a good illustration for anybody
new to the bookseller community or looking to get a
better understanding of these graphs.

Please feel free to share this guide with anyone that

might find it helpful!

If you found this useful and want to buy me a cup of

coffee or throw me a couple bucks :)

Venmo: Dan-Fagan-1
Paypal: fagancooper@gmail.com
Introduction:

If you’ve purchased this guide, you have probably asked one of these questions at some point:

1. “Should I buy this high ranked book? Will it ever sell?”

2. “How should I price this book?”
3. “Is this 2005 calendar really selling for $700?”

You’ve heard it countless times: “Just check Keepa...”

You pull up a graph with a bunch of colorful lines, different axes and have no idea how to interpret what you
are looking at. You still don’t know if you have a winner or not. It doesn’t seem to be as intuitive as others make
it seem.

This guide will walk you through app installation, user settings and provide a thorough breakdown of what each
of these lines and data points signifies. I will first share my personal opinion and experience with high-ranked
books, provide a breakdown of the Keepa interface, and then offer several examples for various types of books
that you can follow along with.

When it comes to interpreting these charts, there is no opinion. You are looking at historical data. I will
describe a method of interpreting this data and the process you can follow to determine if a specific
book fits your buying criteria.

Here’s where the opinions come into play -

No two sellers are the same. What might seem like an obvious buy for me might not be worth your time at all.

No two books are the same. There are far too many variables to establish any hard and fast rules for buying
criteria or pricing. Each situation is different. I can show you how to read a graph, but I can’t determine your
buying criteria or tell you how you should price your copy. You can ask 10 different people how they would
price a book and get 10 completely different answers. This is something you will need to learn how to do for
yourself. I can only explain what I would do.

I’m no “guru” but I have honestly been generating a decent, relatively passive income selling books while I
finish graduate school. I sell around 425 books per month with an ASP of around $17. I net 55% of this number
as profit. I average about 15 hours a week sourcing, listing and pricing. I maintain an inventory size in the
range of 2,000-2,200 books. I try to send in at least 150 books every week. I price each of my books
individually. All of my sales are FBA.

If you are still confused by the time you finish reading this, please free to reach out to me. I promise I will help
you interpret these graphs until you get the hang of it.

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Things you should know by now:

 Each book has a sales rank that fluctuates hourly. This is a very dynamic figure.
 Sales rank indicates the length of time since the book has last sold.
 A low AVERAGE sales rank (500k and under) indicates that a book sells relatively frequently.
 A higher sales rank (2M+) indicates that a book has not sold in quite some time.

You need to have a working knowledge of FBAScan and be able to distinguish between books that are
obviously rejects and books that are worthwhile. Let’s look at a few of these obvious examples:

REJECT REJECT

 Without even considering rank:

 Average rank is almost 3 million
 Flooded with penny sellers
 Only one Prime offer for $5
 Many $4 Prime offers
 Many penny sellers.
 125 sellers on this listing
 I can’t image this book fitting anyone’s criteria for
FBA (or MF)
BUY BUY

 Current and average rank is very low.  Very low current/average rank – this is a
 Amazon is on the listing – as long as they are in fast moving book
stock, this is pretty much the ceiling price  MF prices are decent
 MF prices are very healthy.  Little FBA competition
 This should be an obvious buy – you can price
slightly under Amazon and get the sale

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Now we get into the “not so obvious” scenarios and the questions they might raise:

These prices are good but the rank is really high!

Should I buy this? The subject matter looks pretty good but the rank is so
high!
How should I price my copy?
Will this ever sell?

I can’t believe this 12 year old calendar is worth this

much!
The MF prices are pretty good, but how should I
price my copy for FBA? (spoiler…it isn’t.)

Later on, I will walk you through my thought process for items like this that might not be the conventional
buying situation. I will also explain how I would price my copy.

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FIGURES ARE FROM 2016
First, you need to establish some rough framework as your buying criteria. If you are only buying books under
a certain rank, you are definitely leaving a ton of money on the table.
FIGURES ARE FROM 2016
If I had to write out my buying criteria, it would look something like this:
Average Desired
Criteria My Reasoning
Rank Profit
 Less than 20 FBA sellers These move fast. Even if the price is
1 - 200k $3 +  FBA price $8+ bottomed out to a penny, these can still go
 MF price irrelevant for a quick, small profit via FBA.
 Less than 20 FBA sellers
Still what I would consider fast-moving.
200k – 500k $3 +  FBA price $8+
Quick profit.
 MF price not bottomed out ($1+)
 Less than 10 FBA sellers The “steady sellers” range. Probably my
500k – 1MM $5 +  FBA price $12+ favorite range of books that I come across
 MF price not bottomed out and sell on a daily basis.
These sell more frequently than you might
 Less than 10 FBA sellers
think. In my experience, these are books
 FBA price $20+
1MM – 2MM $10+ that can move within a month or so. If the
 Less than 15 MF sellers
MF prices look decent, I will pick these up
 MF price $8+
all day long.
Getting into the danger zone!!! I consider
 Less than 5 FBA sellers
these books to move within a few months. I
 FBA price $25+
am more concerned with MF pricing and
2MM – 3MM $20+  Less than 10 MF sellers
competition. I always check Keepa data for
 MF price $15+
recent sales to assess if there is any
 No Megasellers on listing demand.
 Less than 3 FBA sellers
Check Keepa data for recent sales/steady
 FBA price $30+
demand. I want to be one of only a few
3MM – 4MM $25+  Less than 5 MF sellers
sellers. I don’t want to compete with any
 MF price $25+
megasellers that will ruthlessly undercut me.
 No Megasellers on listing
 One or no FBA seller
I want to be the sole FBA seller. Check
 Less than 5 MF sellers
4MM+ $30+ Keepa. I’d like to see a sale or two within
 MF price $30+
the last year.

FIGURES ARE FROM 2016
No Megasellers on listing

For me, this is ideal. This is roughly the criteria I do my best to adhere to. Admittedly, I break these rules every
day. I’m not going to turn away a $50 textbook ranked 200k because there are 25 FBA sellers on the listing!
Generally speaking, for books ranked under 1 million, I am only pricing against other FBA offers.

Take this with a grain of salt. This is not something you can copy blindly. You might not agree with everything I
have here, but there is nothing wrong with that! This is what works for me. You may say “Wow this guy is an
idiot for doing that!” I’m hoping you say something more along the lines of: “Oh, I can see why he would do
that. That makes some sense.”

There is one thing that all sellers will agree upon: If a book has a high rank, it should demand a higher
price. If a book is going to sit at an Amazon warehouse for 6 months or longer, the price of the book
should be high enough to justify the long term storage fees it may accumulate.

FIGURES ARE FROM 2016

My personal thoughts on high-ranked books:

A very reasonable question might sound something like this: Why would I ever want to add slow selling
items to my inventory?

Some sellers consider books that are ranked greater than 1 or 2 million to be the dark abyss of Amazon where
there is simply no more demand for these titles. This is not true. While there might not be as much demand
for these books, some of them hold significant value. One huge benefit to selling higher ranked books is that
there is typically much less competition on any given listing.

Just like books with a lower rank, there are millions of duds that have been driven down to a penny by a ton of
other sellers. Outdated textbooks, old fiction books, romance novels, and mass market paperbacks are almost
always penny books with little demand.

The big money is in the very specific nonfiction, academic titles. I have had most success selling high-ranked
university press books. These books are usually out of print and in short supply – generally speaking, this
keeps prices high. They are very niche titles with a narrow audience. If the title makes you yawn, that’s usually
a good sign. When the right buyer comes along, they are ready to pay up.

Here’s an example. Early last year, I was working on a research project for a civil engineering course called
“Urban Megaprojects”. I had chosen to write my paper on Battery Park City. For those not familiar, Battery Park
City is a luxury, residential community that was basically tacked on the southwestern tip of Manhattan in the
1970’s, built entirely on landfill. I searched on Amazon and came across a book titled “Battery Park City:
Politics and Planning on the New York Waterfront” written by a professional community designer. This book
had everything I needed for my project – construction timelines, the obstacles the designers faced during
construction, the engineering studies to determine the bearing capacity of the landfill and environmental
impact, the project cost, interviews with the project manager, and the overall economic success of the project. I
groaned at the price; the lowest used price was $35. But this book had everything I needed. There were MF
offers for $32+shipping, but I ordered a used copy for $40 because it was Prime eligible.

It definitely wasn’t a leisurely read or something I might pick up on a rainy day – it was an academic book full of
details about a specific construction project that took place over 40 years ago. Looking back now, that book
was ranked almost 3 million when I purchased it. There are only two books written on this topic. It sold maybe
6 or 7 times last year. I was the right buyer for this book.

On the next page is what I consider one of my best hauls ever - 40 university press books with an average
rank of 1.6 million. Almost none of these had ISBN barcodes and had to be manually typed in to research
them. These books had little FBA competition and most of them had MF offers starting around $15.

Take a look at some of these titles. The content of these books does not go out of date. There is no cutting
edge research on Margaret Thatcher’s battle with the IRA in 1980-1981. Publishers are not revising “Essays on
the Political Economy of Rural Africa” every year. I doubt there is anything that could happen today that would
call for an updated version of “England in the 1670s.”

These are the types of books that hold their value.

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7
Here is some personal data from my most recent 1,000 sales over the last 12 weeks.

Sales Total $16,940

Cost of Goods Sold $1,520
Fees $6,140
Profit $9,280

Sales Breakdown by Rank

30%

25%

20%
Percent of Total Books Sold

Percent of Profit
15%

10%

5%

0%
0-10k 10k-100k 100k-250k 250k-500k 500k-1MM 1MM-2MM 2MM-3MM 3MM-4MM 4MM+

To put this in words:

 679 books were ranked under 500k and accounted for 62.9% of my profit for this period
 180 books were ranked between 500k and 1MM and accounted for 17.8% of my profit.
 98 books were ranked between 1MM and 2MM and accounted for 10.6% of my profit.
 28 books were ranked between 2MM and 3MM and accounted for 4.4% of my profit.
 12 books were ranked between 3MM and 4MM and accounted for 3.3% of my profit.
 3 books were ranked over 4MM and accounted for 1% of my profit.

43 “slow selling” books, with a landed cost of $65.36, sold for nearly $1200. After fees, I profited $846.

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 Average Sale Price
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0

Here is a breakdown of average sale price for each sales rank category. As mentioned earlier, these high
ranked books should command a higher sale price. That is definitely the case here.

I currently have around 360 books ranked over 2 million in my inventory, or roughly 15%. I am very well aware
that not all of these high ranked books will sell, but I am still comfortable sending them into FBA. Here is my
reasoning. You might disagree with all of this and still have no desire to touch these books.

I am using data for high ranked (2MM+) inventory that has been at a fulfillment center for at least 3 months.
The average rank for this set is 2.4MM.

 313 units
 260 are between 2MM-3MM
 Landed cost: $1.52 per unit.
 Total investment: $475
 Average list price: $26.43 – Total listed value: $8,272
 Within 3 months, I have sold 43 of these books (14%)
 These 43 items sold for $1196. My net proceeds were $846.

After 3 months, I have recouped my buy cost and have already made a $330 profit on this set of books.

Now I will attempt a projection with the following assumptions. In my mind, these are pretty conservative:

 Known: I have sold 14% in 3 months. I am extrapolating from this point using my average sale price.
 Projection:
 I will sell 20% within 6 months (63 sales)
 I will sell 33% within 12 months (103 sales)
 I will sell 40% within 18 months (125 sales)
 I will pay a monthly storage fee of $0.05/ unit
FIGURES ARE FROM 2016
 I will pay 6-12 month long term storage fees of $0.50/ unit
 I will pay 12 month+ long term storage fees of $1/ unit (Paid at 12 months and 18 months)
 After 12 months, my repriced inventory will be 70% of the original listing price ($18.50)
 Approximately 40 books will drop significantly in value and require disposal every 6 months (120
total @ $0.15/unit)
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 Projection for Inventory Ranked 2MM+
$3,500.00

$3,000.00

$2,500.00

$2,000.00
Total Sales
$1,500.00 Total Proceeds
$1,319 Profit
$1,000.00
$1,064
$741
$500.00
$334
$0.00
0 3 6 9 12 15 18
Months spent at fulfillment center

Snapshot after 18 months:

 Sold: 125 books (40%) (7 per month)

 Disposed: 120 books (38%)
 Unsold: 68 books (22%)
 Average sale price: $23.82
 Total sales: $3,129
 Total proceeds: $2,237
 Storage fees: $424 ($121 monthly, $302 long term) FIGURES ARE FROM 2016
 Disposal costs: $18
 Profit: $1,319

Even with very conservative estimates, I expect to come out way ahead.

I expect to sell more than 40% of these books within 18 months. These books never would have made it into
an Amazon warehouse if I didn’t think they were worthwhile. I am only selecting high ranked books that have
little competition, a high sale price, and a visible sales history,

For lower ranked books, which I consider less than 1 million, I am not really concerned with MF prices. I am
assuming that these items sell frequently enough that a buyer is likely to come along looking for a Prime-
eligible copy that they can have in their hands 2 days later. I will price against current FBA prices unless they
are unreasonably high.

For higher ranked books, I need to price my offer competitively so that it is most likely to be chosen by the next
buyer that comes along. I will never price below the lowest MF copy unless I can reasonably determine that
the current prices are inflated.

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I don’t expect that I will have to dispose of so many books. I am only purchasing books that are in short supply
on amazon.com. These aren’t common titles that someone would come across every day. Long term storage
fees are just another part of the game now. I am prepared to pay them, but I only plan on keeping books that
maintain a high value and have a promising return. If more sellers join the listing, the price can quickly be
driven down to the point where the storage costs are not justifiable. Because the buy cost for books is pretty
low, I should only need to sell a small percentage of these books to come out ahead. Most sales in this range
bring in anywhere from 10-20 times my buy cost; not every one of them needs be a winner. It might seem like
this is just throwing away money, but the simple fact is that not everything is going to sell.

I currently see about 2 or 3 of these high ranked sales every week. It’s a nice feeling knowing that I got the sale
when many sellers would just leave that book behind.

If I’m selling 3 high ranked books every week, they should bring in at least $45 profit.

If I’m sending in 150 books per week, 15-20 of them might be high ranked. This would cost me approximately
$30. I enjoy building this part of my inventory.

Some people say having a cutoff rank is smart. Of course anyone would love to have an inventory that consists
of valuable books ranked under 1 million. The reality is that there are quite literally millions of other books
ranked higher than this that still sell every day.

Instead of a cutoff, I would say it is much smarter to learn how to identify high-quality, long tail books that can
add a ton of value to a diverse book inventory.

I feel that if I continue selecting high quality long tail books, my profit will easily justify these storage
fees. I have no problem waiting a year or two for a sale if the book is worth $30-50.

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So what is Keepa and why do I need to know how to use it?

Keepa is an invaluable tool for any Amazon seller. It is a website and chrome plugin that shows the key
information needed to make any buying or pricing decision - sales rank, used, new, and Amazon price. This
data is tracked over time and provides you with the graphical sales history of any given item. It is critical that
you understand how to interpret this data correctly and quickly.

Keepa currently tracks 60 million products on Amazon.com. For books, I have never seen a sales rank over
16MM on Keepa. This guide focuses on books, but Keepa tracks this data across all categories and the same
approach for analysis can be used for any product.

Keepa is similar to another website that tracks this data - camelcamelcamel. However, I feel that Keepa is
greatly advantageous because it displays the price and sales rank data on the same graph, making it much
easier to analyze points of interest.

Understanding Keepa will allow you to make better decisions when sourcing, and much better
decisions when pricing.

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Installation:
By searching “Keepa” in the Chrome web store, you can add the extension to your Chrome browser. This will
add the Keepa charts to every Amazon page you visit. This is very convenient if you price each of your books
individually.

A quick access button to Keepa is built into the FBAScan app, located at the bottom of the interface. Clicking
this will bring up the Keepa charts for the item that has been scanned on screen. This is how you can quickly
look up Keepa data when you are out sourcing.

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Web BrowserSetup:

This setup will keep everyone on the same page for this guide. These are my preferences.; you can change
yours at any time.

Under the “Settings” tab of the window which should now appear on any Amazon listing, change your chart
appearance to the following:

This will greatly simplify the data displayed in the Keepa window. My reasoning for my settings is as follows:

For the most part, I am dealing with used books. In almost all cases, the used price is lower than the new price.
I am going to assume the book always sells at the lowest price on the listing. In some cases, the New and
Amazon price may be of interest. These can easily be toggled on and off.

This black line traces the lowest used offer for the book, which is frequently an MF offer. We are unable
to distinguish between FBA and MF prices on this chart. This should be kept in mind when pricing your copy
for FBA.

I prefer to look at the span of one year. Some books, such as textbooks or university press books sell
incredibly well during “textbook season” – January/ February and August/September. Since we are looking at a
full year of data, it is easy to identify this type of seasonal behavior and the corresponding surge in price. The
sales rank is traced by the green line.

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Let’s visit a page to make sure we are all looking at the same thing:

Link: https://www.amazon.com/Liquid-Life-Abortion-Buddhism-Japan/dp/0691029652

Scrolling down, here is what you should see:

Off to the right, we see the following:

These are the date range options. This is useful if you

want to focus on a shorter or longer time period.

This means that the graph only displays the used

price and the sales rank. This is the simplification I am
using for this guide.

The New and Amazon prices can be turned on by

clicking these options. They will then be displayed on
the graph.

If we were to turn these on, the Keepa chart would look like this:

Since the new and Amazon prices are so much higher than the used price, the scale of the price axis is
drastically changed. It is much more difficult to interpret the data for a used copy with these prices displayed.

This is very typical – Amazon is highest, followed by New, with Used coming in lowest.
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 The Approach:
No two Keepa graphs are the same, but they are always formatted in the same manner. Here I will attempt to
identify some typical cases that you might come across.

The price is on the left vertical axis. The price line (black) corresponds to this axis.

The sales rank is the right vertical axis. The sales rank line (green) corresponds to this axis.

Case 1 - The Slow Seller:

Let’s start with a relatively slow-selling book. Check out the upper bound of the sales rank axis – 3 million! This
is usually the type of book you will need to look further into. We know the sales rank “drops” when a copy of
the book sells.

A drop in sales rank means a copy sold. That’s it. We do not know if this was an FBA or MF sale. We
don’t know if this was bought from Amazon or from a third party seller in new or used condition. All we
know is that a sale occurred. It is safest to assume that the sale occurred at the lowest price, which is
almost always in used condition.

Our goal is to find these drops and interpret the price data at the time of the drop. This will allow us to
obtain a reasonable idea of a price that a book has sold at in the past and a rough idea of how
frequently a book is selling.
Sales Rank

R
a
1 n
k
R
a
n
Price Axis Price (used) Sales Rank Axis
k

We are looking at the points where the sales rank (green line) abruptly drops and the corresponding
price (black line) at the time of that drop.

Point 1 (circled on the left) shows a sales rank drop through a lowest used price of around $11. The sales rank
drops from 2.8 million to 500k with this one sale.

Point 2 (circled on the right) shows a sales rank drop through a lowest used price of around $20. The sales
rank drops from 2.9 million to below 500k with this sale.

Observe how the sales rank creeps upward between February and April. Because it was not purchased during
this period, the sales rank climbs from ~250k to 2.8 million until it sold again in mid-April

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Now, looking at this over the course of a year, I am counting the sudden drops in the sales rank line (green). I
count one in January, February, April, two in June, one in July and September for a total of 7 drops. Each is
marked below:

How much did it sell for?

We don’t know the exact selling price, but we can make some conservative assumptions here:

1. The lowest used price that is displayed is an MF price (shipping not included – add $3.99)
2. It sold at that price and can possibly* sell again at that price. It is the only data we have to work with. If
you can say there was demand at a certain price in the past, it is possible* that there will be demand at
a similar price in the future.

So if I was analyzing this Keepa chart, the sales I observe would be:
$11 + $3.99 in January
$10 + $3.99 in February , April and June
$20 + $3.99 in July and September

The takeaway: According to our analysis, this book has sold seven copies in the last 12 months. I would feel
comfortable saying that this book might sell once every two months. It seems to sells just as frequently at
$23.99 as it does at $13.99.

Let’s look at the sale in September. Even though the lowest used price was $20 MF, this was my copy that
sold via FBA in for $29. Again, we are not able to see that drop as an FBA sale– we can only see the lowest
used price on this graph.

So what happened in June? Why did the price increase so suddenly? (Circled area)

The sudden increase from $10 to $25 means that a $25 offer somehow became the lowest used price. This
can happen for a variety of reasons, but the most likely reason is that the lowest offer was purchased. The
second sale in June most likely purchased the lowest used offer at $10. What was previously the second
lowest offer ($25) is now the lowest offer and plotted on the Keepa chart accordingly.

*Keep in mind that a lot of this is conservative speculation. This book might never sell again. Past
behavior does not guarantee any future behavior. That is the real “risk” when it comes to buying high
ranked books. However, you can use Keepa in this way to see that there is some demand and make a
more calculated, educated decision to determine if this would meet your buying criteria.

I chose this as the first example because it is much easier to isolate these drops for slow moving books. The
same principle applies to lower ranked books – isolate the drop in rank, find the corresponding sale price.

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Case 2 – The “bread and butter”:
This is a pretty typical book with an average rank around 600k. Following the green line, I count 36 sales rank
drops over 12 months. This is a book that is selling several times a month. There is really no point in counting
all of the sales rank drops – suffice it to say that this book sells several copies a month, year-round. In my
opinion, a steady selling book has an average rank of around 500k.

In most cases, you shouldn’t need to open Keepa to see if this is a good buy. You can make your decision
quickly by using the average rank and the current FBA and MF offers on the listing.

For this graph, the drop in sales rank (green) does not always cross through the price line (black) like it did in
the previous case. This has to do with the scale of the graph and happens frequently with books that vary
drastically in price. (in this case $0.01 - $16)

The approach is still the same. The drop in sales rank line (green) indicates a sale at that price (black). Let’s
look more closely at February/March:

Click and drag over a certain period to zoom in on it. Here we take the same approach as before – look for the
drop in sales rank and determine the used price at that instant. Here we see several sales in the $13 range.
This is the lowest MF price on the listing at the time of these sales.

Notice the downward trend in March/April and June/July. This behavior is usually the result of repricers
competing against each other. Note that the book sells pretty regularly year round, regardless of the price.

The price is all over the place for this book. You might reject this book if you found it in July, but excitedly put it
in your basket in September. The price was driven down to a penny in July and August.

I picked up a copy of this book in early September and sold shortly after for $19.99 FBA.

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Case 3 – The quick, low margin sale:
The penny-ish book. Many sellers won’t touch these. I sell this sort of book for 7.99-10.99 on a daily basis,
consistently netting me a couple bucks.

Look at all of those sales rank spikes! This is a book that sells very, very frequently. If you really want to
analyze this to count sales rank drops, you would be better off looking at a shorter period – perhaps a week or
a month. There are plenty of penny sellers on this listing at any given time.

Again, you shouldn’t need to open Keepa to determine if this is a good buy. You can make a reasonable
decision based on the average rank and the current FBA/MF offers on the listing.

Follow the sales rank line (green) into August/September. We see that for this period (circled), the rank is
consistently below 100k. With this increase in demand, we can see a slight increase in the used price to a
dollar or two.

For the most part, this is a $0.01+ $3.99 shipping book. However, it is extremely common for a Prime customer
to come along and buy your FBA copy for a few dollars more.

Case 4 – The homerun:

This is a very low-ranked book with very high demand. The price is relatively constant year-round.

Not much to say about this one – I hope you find many of these.

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Case 5 – The textbook:
This is one of the most important Keepa charts to understand. Textbooks are some of the most profitable
books you can find. This is the typical “textbook behavior” you may see. The sales rank drops drastically at the
beginning of each semester, accompanied by a significant surge in price.

This book is for a college level course. Observe the sudden increases in price (black line) when the semesters
start during January and August/September. This book hovers around $8 during the off season (mid semester,
summer break) and then surges up to $30-40 when it is most in demand.

Here is an example of a high school textbook. The book is probably used over the course of the entire year.
There is only one price surge during the back to school rush in September. This book goes from ~$15 during
the off season to over $70 in September!

Textbook Season

Off Season

It is important to understand these trends because you would almost definitely sell yourself short if you priced
against your competition during the offseason. If you were to price this book at the blue point indicated in
March, you would sell your copy for $40-50 less than you could have in September!

Keep an eye out for this behavior. When I am pricing my books, I always ask myself: “does this book show any
seasonal variation?” If it does, I price at the anticipated sales value that I have extrapolated from Keepa. In this
case, likely $70-90.

The demand is there year round – but the demand is strongest and the price is highest during textbook
season.

There is a huge opportunity here known as “textbook arbitrage”. There is software, namely eFlip and Zen
Arbitrage, that will help you find books that meet this criteria. You can buy copies of a book during the off
season and then sell them for a huge profit during peak season.

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The Buying Scenario:

Now we are in the field. You scan a book. This is almost never done at a leisurely pace. You’re frantically
scanning at a book sale... You’re at Goodwill and your competition just walked through the door. You will lose a
ton of valuable time if you pull up Keepa data for every book you scan.

When I am scanning, which is almost always in a store, I scan through books and set aside books that have an
average rank above 2 million and have promising MF prices. These will require further analysis before making
it to the checkout counter. In most cases, the first time I look at a Keepa graph is when I am pricing my copy
before sending it to a fulfillment center.

To recap, these are the cases that we will analyze in the following section:

The homerun/ textbook

No question here - low rank, high price, great subject matter. Pull the trigger. You can’t lose on this one. Take
a screenshot of your big find.

The bread and butter:

MF prices are decent. Average rank under 1M. Some FBA competition. There’s no question you will make $5-
$10. Nobody is posting screenshots of the $12 book they find every day. It’s certainly not a huge score, but
definitely an important part of any bookseller’s inventory.

The quick seller:

This is for those with the “make a quick buck” mindset. This may be pretty short-lived due to upcoming fee
hikes in February 2017.

The rank is pretty good but it’s quickly approaching my floor price. There are a few penny books on the listing,
but the FBA prices are okay. I’ll make a quick $3 or so. All I really have to do is slap a label on it and put it in a
box...

For now, these add up. A lot of people have a strict price minimum for books they send to FBA. For books that
cost practically nothing at a fill-a-bag sale, I’d be willing to lower my standards. Look at your buy cost and then
ask yourself: “how much work am I really doing?” For me it’s worth it. For you, it might not be.

The slow seller:

From what I have observed in multiple Facebook groups, most sellers seem to be comfortable with books that
are ranked under 1 million. If you were to ask me, I would say that a book ranked over 2 million deserves
special consideration. For a book ranked above 2MM to meet my criteria, the listing would have little
competition and demand a high price.

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These are mostly books that I have bought and sold within the last 3 months. For reference, my average buy
cost is around $1.25. I will provide a screenshot of the FBAScan results, the Keepa chart for each item, and my
thought process for buying that book. I am omitting some data for products that I am still on the listing for.

I will focus more on scenarios that I feel require special consideration before I would purchase them.

One last time – this is what works for me. Your buying criteria/ pricing strategy may be drastically
different.

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Homerun – Example 1:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 This is a very current textbook.

 Amazon is the only other Prime seller on the listing.
 The lowest MF price is $45.
 This is an obvious buy. More please.

Keepa:

 I would not have pulled up Keepa while scouting. This is a valuable book with
obvious demand.
 This is a very new textbook (2015) – from what I have seen, the price remains
pretty steady for a few semesters while there are not as many used copies in
circulation.

Result:

 Sold FBA, VG condition for $69.99

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Homerun – Example 2:

Scouting/FBAScan:

 Newer book, good subject material

 Lowest MF price is $19+
 Only Prime competition is Amazon
 No brainer, buy.

Keepa:

 I would not have pulled up Keepa while scouting.

 This is a steady seller

Result:

 Sold FBA, LN condition for $27.99

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Textbook – Example 1
Scouting/FBAScan:

 Textbook, great nonfiction material

 Lowest MF price is $15
 Rank is phenomenal
 Easy decision, buy

Keepa:

 Did not pull up Keepa while scouting

 When pricing – observe seasonality

Result:

 Priced slightly under Amazon new at $55

 I am not concerning myself with the $14 MF offers. They will probably be sold
by the time my book arrives at the warehouse.
 Sold in acceptable condition for $49.99

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Textbook – Example 2:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 Current textbook.
 Lowest MF price is $115
 Rank is phenomenal
 Easy decision, buy

Keepa:

 Did not pull up Keepa while scouting

 When pricing – observe seasonality
 Rank drops significantly during January/September, but there isn’t a
dramatic surge in price. This is likely because this is a newer textbook.

Result:

 Priced and sold quickly at $149.99 during September.

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Textbook – Example 3:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 Textbook, great material

 MF prices are great, rank is phenomenal
 Easy decision, buy

Keepa:

 Did not pull up Keepa while scouting

 When pricing – observe seasonality
 Steady demand year round, increased demand in September/January.
 Visible price jump from the $40/60 range to $125/150

Result:

 Sold at $139.99 FBA in late September.

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Bread and Butter – Example 1:

Scouting/FBAScan:

 This is a newer book – nonfiction, religious memoir

 Amazon is on the listing. Usually a good sign.
 Rank is extremely low.
 Little FBA competition.

Keepa:

 I would not have pulled up Keepa while scouting.

 This is a quick-selling book with obvious demand.

Result:

 Sold FBA, LN condition for $12.99

 Priced right below Amazon, sold the day it hit the warehouse

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Bread and Butter – Example 2:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 MF prices are well above a penny

 Very little FBA competition
 Amazon is on the listing
 Rank is good, I don’t really care about MF offers.

Keepa:

 I would not have pulled up Keepa while scouting.

 This is a solid seller with consistent demand.
 Low price bounces around, plummets occasionally.
 This was a penny book in August.

Result:

 Sold FBA, VG condition for $11.99

 Easy money, nothing to call home about

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Quick Seller – Example 1:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 MF prices are falling pretty low

 Average rank is very low – I am not concerned with MF offers.
 Amazon is on the listing with 4 other FBA sellers, all in the $11 range.
 Looks good

Keepa:

 I would not have pulled up Keepa while scouting.

 This is a solid seller with consistent demand, little FBA competition

Result:

 Sold FBA, VG condition for $12.99

 Priced against FBA offers.

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Quick Seller – Example 2:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 Academic text about a classic book.

 Average rank is fantastic
 I am only concerned with FBA sellers.
 This is probably always in demand.

Keepa:

 I would not have pulled up Keepa while scouting.

 This is a solid seller with consistent demand.
 Price surge in January. Only rises to $5.
 This has been a penny book for the last 11 months.

Result:

 Sold FBA, VG condition for $9.99

 Priced against FBA sellers with a comparable condition.
 Very quick sale for about $4.25 profit.

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Special Consideration – Example 1:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 This is a university press book

 Lowest MF price is $30+
 No brainer, buy.

Keepa:

 I would not have pulled up Keepa while scouting.

 This is a valuable book with obvious demand.
 Steady, year round demand.
 Price bounces around a lot , but surges in September to $75+

Result:

 Sold FBA, G condition for $89.99 in September

 Priced higher than lowball FBA offers
 “Waited my turn” for the sale
 Currently tracking this book to flip again!

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Special Consideration – Example 2:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 Lowest offer is way above cover price. This isn’t always a bad sign, but makes me
suspicious.
 Rank is great, there isn’t much competition.
 Is it really selling for this much? Check Keepa.

Keepa:

 Bizarre behavior… is this one of those weird scenarios?

 Used price is well below cover price for 6 months, very consistent demand (rank below
100k)
 Price jumps dramatically in October – sales rank increases, but sells steadily!
 Shows sporadic sales in the $100+ range

Result:

 Sold FBA, Good condition for $99.99!

 Seems very strange to me, but I’m certainly not complaining.
 Definitely check this one out for yourself!
https://www.amazon.com/Leonard-Maltins-2015-Movie-Guide/dp/0142181765/

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Special Consideration – Example 3:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 MF prices are looking good ($20+)

 Little FBA competition
 Amazon is on the listing for $45, looks like these used prices are reasonable.
 That rank doesn’t terrify me, but I should consult Keepa.

Keepa: (displaying Amazon, new and used)

 I’m seeing about 10 drops in the last year.

 Sales occur at times where the lowest used offer is around $20
 I’m happy with this, buy.

Result:

 Sold FBA, VG condition for $41.99

 Sold within a month of listing.

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Special Consideration – Example 4:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 Score!
 Oh wait. The MF prices are only a couple dollars
 Great book about some historical event.
 Amazon is the only Prime seller on the listing.
 Could I reasonably undercut Amazon to a price where my Prime-eligible offer
would appeal to the next person who visits this page? Better consult Keepa.

Keepa: (displaying Amazon, new and used)

 I’m counting 10 sales within the last year.

 Looks like copies sold in the $20 range earlier in the year, then the price was
dragged down to a couple dollars.
 This is something I will take a chance on this for a dollar.

Result:

 Sold FBA, VG condition for $29.99 within 2 months.

 This is why I love FBA.

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Special Consideration – Example 5:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 Lowest offer is way above cover price.

 MF and FBA prices all look great.
 Rank is well within my comfort zone.
 Is it really selling for this much? Check Keepa.

Keepa:

 Very consistent sales. Approximately 18 in the last year.

 Some sales earlier in the year for $50+
 Look closely at the sales in July and August – The sale occurs when the
lowest price is around $25. The book did not sell when the price was at $75.
 More recently has sold in the $35 range.
 I don’t think the FBA prices are reasonable here (more than double MF)
 I can still make a sizable profit if I price my copy as the lowest FBA.

Result:

 Sold FBA in VG condition for $59.99.

 Took about 1 month to sell.

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Special Consideration – Example 6:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 MF prices are healthy. Amazon is the only Prime offer. I like this
 The rank could be worse. I can probably justify storing this book for quite
some time if it demands that kind of price.
 Can I undercut Amazon and get the next sale?
 Better check Keepa.

Keepa:

 I’m counting 3 sales in the last 12 months.

 Looks like these sales only occurred at around $15!
 The current prices are okay. I’ll roll the dice on this one – bought for a dollar

Result:

 This is a loser.
 Price dropped back down to $15 and still has not sold.
 I am still the only used, Prime offer.
 Hoping for a sale, but I am prepared to dispose this book.
 Can’t win them all.

37
Special Consideration – Example 7:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 Prices are great across the board.

 This is an art textbook about a technique used by a particular artist.
 It seems like a specialized book that I could see someone willing to lay out
some money for.
 Rank is a little out of my comfort zone, consult Keepa. Has it sold recently?

Keepa:

 Two sales in the last year at around $60 and $90 (indicated)
 For a dollar, I’m willing to join this listing.

Result:
 Priced at $134.99, VG condition.
 Took a little extra care writing condition notes to try to make my offer more
appealing.
 “Book has very light cover wear. There are no dog eared pages. All pages are
clear of writing. Book has been polybagged for protection. Eligible for Prime
two day shipping!”
 Price has held steady. Still on this listing.

38
Special Consideration – Example 8:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 Nonfiction title about government in ancient civilizations

 MF prices are good, no FBA seller!
 Rank is high. Better check Keepa.

Keepa:

 Two sales in the last year. One at $25 and one at $35.
 I like the look of this, buy.

Result:

 Got this book for free.

 Priced at $42.99. That buy box is all mine.
 Price has not tanked. I’ll keep this one around.

39
Special Consideration – Example 9:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 Old paperback, no ISBN, never heard of the publisher.

 Great title. Exactly what I look out for.
 FBAScan only showing current rank?
 No FBA. The MF prices are good, but I want to check Keepa.

Keepa:

 Over 20 sales in the last 12 months. Consistent demand.

 Book consistently sells in the $100 range.
 Priced around $40 from June-August, but current prices are around $100!
 Buy!

Result:

 Sold $119.99, FBA.

40
Special Consideration – Example 10:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 MF prices are great, no FBA sellers.

 University press hardcover book. Cover price $48.
 Rank doesn’t horrify me, but I would like to check Keepa.

Keepa:

 I’m counting 8 sales in the last 12 months.

 Most recent sales are in the $45 range.
 Lower price (~$25) earlier in the year did not seem to generate any additional
demand for this title.

Result:

 Priced VG copy at $59.99.

 Still on this listing.

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Special Consideration – Example 11:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 Rank is great. Very niche knitting book. Cover price is $30

 Prices are great! But wait - used prices are higher than new?
 Something is off here, better check Keepa when I price this.
 This is a buy, regardless.

Keepa:

 Looking at used AND new price data. I’m assuming the copy has sold at the lower of
these two values (safe assumption)
 Many sales throughout the year, mostly where the lower of these two prices hovers
around $50.
 Looking at June – that’s a sale at $100.
 I am pricing based on the current prices. I can always drop my price down later. I will
send my copy in priced at $159 and keep an eye on it.

Result:

 Sold for $149.99 in LN condition within a month.

 I was the only FBA offer on this listing.
 At the time of the sale, there were new offers for around $60.

42
Special Consideration – Example 12:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 I don’t believe it. Mister Rogers’ advice can’t be that valuable.

 Check Keepa.

Keepa:

 This was a penny book a week ago.

 Suspicion confirmed, this is a “repricer gone wild” scenario
 This might not be a $400 book, but there is a steady demand and no FBA
listing!
 I would grab this book hoping I could flip it for $15-20.

Result:

 (Not my find, screenshot taken from Reezy Resells Facebook group)

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Special Consideration – Example 13:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 No Rank.
 Prices inflated.
 Edition from a particular year.
 Not a winner.

Keepa:

 No sales history, no demand.

 Would have never opened this chart if I didn’t want a screenshot for this page.

Result:

 (Not my find, screenshot taken from Reezy Resells Facebook group)

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Special Consideration – Example 14:

Scouting/FBAScan:

 Rank is very high.

 Price is significantly higher than cover price (not always a bad sign, but best
to check keepa if you come across this)
 Title looks interesting, but there just isn’t any demand.

Keepa:

 No sales history, no visible demand.

 This is a dud.

Result:

 (Not my find, screenshot taken from Reezy Resells Facebook group)

45
Special Consideration – Example 15:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 I would have never even scanned this.

 This is a 12 year old calendar. Come on.

Keepa:

 A steady sales rank ascent for the rest of time.

 No sales even with a whopping 92% price reduction down to $80 in October.

Result:

 (Not my find, screenshot taken from Reezy Resells Facebook group)

46
Special Consideration – Example 16:
Scouting/FBAScan:

 Title looks very promising, but that rank is much too high.
 This is a hardcover. Usually when I see Amazon on a listing with such a high
rank, I check to see if there is a paperback.
 If there is a paperback and it fits my criteria, I might be able to list the
hardcover at a price that is competitive with the paperback listing. (I doubt
anyone is going to spend $188 on a hardcover if there is a $50 paperback
available.)

Keepa:

 Hardcover – rank is 15MM

 There is a paperback – Rank is 4MM
 Sales earlier in the year in the $15 range
 No sales in the $40 range. This does not meet my criteria.

47
Special Consideration – Example 17:

Scouting/FBAScan:

 Title looks good, so do the prices.

 Rank tells me that there is some sales history.
 Even if it takes a few years to sell, a $50 sale is a great return.
 I’d check Keepa

Keepa:

 One sale in the last year when there was an offer for $2.
 Even though the prices suggest it, I can only see demand when the lowest
used price was extremely low.
 I don’t think there is demand for this book at the $50 price point, reject.

Result:

 (Not my find, screenshot taken from Reezy Resells Facebook group)

48
The sad truth looks something like this:

This is common. What was once a great long tail book, selling for $40-60 earlier this year, has been driven
down to a penny. It doesn’t sell frequently so I have little hope that this book will increase in value anytime
soon.

There is a tremendous difference between pricing competitively and pricing stupidly. A lower price does not
bring any additional traffic to a listing. Undercutting another seller by a penny does nothing but exacerbate the
existing downward pressure on pricing. Add some automatic repricing software to the equation and we’ve got a
recipe for disaster!

Picture this scenario for a long tail book:

I’m assuming the potential buyer that is looking for my book is pretty savvy – meaning they click “see more
offers” and doesn’t immediately purchase from the buy box. If I match the lowest MF price of $50+3.99 with
my $53.99 FBA offer, the FBA offer is probably most attractive (assuming conditions are comparable).

I always assume that I am going to be undercut by another seller. That is why I will almost always match the
lowest offer or price slightly above it. If I initially undercut the $53.99 MF offer with a $49.99 FBA offer, what will
happen if he undercuts me to $45+3.99? Should I come back and match his price again? We are STILL the
two lowest offers on the listing, just as we would have been if I had matched his price at $53.99. The price of
the book is just lower now. Rinse and repeat until the price is decimated. This is the reason is why I match or
price slightly above.

As sellers, we are hyperaware of sales rank – a concept that 99.9% of Amazon customers have no idea even
exists. A buyer does not know or care that your item is ranked 4 million or has been sitting at a warehouse for
11 months and is about to incur long term storage fees. If a buyer is going to spend $40 on a book, they
probably won’t care that they saved one cent buying the cheapest copy. If you asked me, I would say that for
long tail books, an offer with high-quality, well-described condition notes will be the most attractive offer.

I really hope you learn something from this. Hopefully I’ve given you a pretty good idea of how Keepa
works and how I use it to make my buying and pricing decisions. There is a lot of my opinion in here,
but overall I hope this guide has given you some insight of what to look out for when you are scanning
through books and make more educated decisions when it comes to buying long tail books!

With books, there is plenty of room for mistakes. Luckily, they are plentiful, the buy cost is usually very
low and there is plenty of room for profit. There is more risk with higher ranked books, but the high
price they can demand can easily justify that small step outside your comfort zone.

Again, please feel free to reach out to me if anything here is unclear or if you want me to read through
a few charts with you. You can find me on facebook or reach me at fagan.amazon@gmail.com.

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