Forecasting Sop

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Ministry of Earth Sciences
Standard Operation Procedure - Weather

Forecasting and Warning Services
India Meteorological Department

Government of India
2021
Standard Operation Procedure
Weather Forecasting and Warning
2021

Government of India
Standard Operation Procedure-Weather Forecasting and Warning
A publication of :
Ministry of Earth sciences
Government of India
Mausam Bhawan
Lodi Road
New Delhi - 110 003
March, 2021
When citing these guidelines the following citation should be used :

Standard Operation Procedure-Weather Forecasting and Warning
Published by India Meteorological Department,
Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India,
Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, New Delhi - 110 003
MISSION
To effectively forecast High Impact Weather events to
strengthen Disaster Preparedness Mechanism
Contents
Page No.
Contents................................................................................................................................................. i-viii
Foreward................................................................................................................................................ ix
Acknowledgements................................................................................................................................ x
Chapter 1 : General Forecasting Organisation of India Meteorological Department 1-28
1.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………. 1
1.2. Current Forecasting Organization……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 1
1.2.1. General Forecast…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 2
1.2.2. Marine Forecast……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 2
1.2.3. Cyclone Warning…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 3
1.2.4. Agrometeorological Services…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4
1.2.5. Flood Meteorological Offices....................................................................................................... 4
1.2.6. Nowcast Services……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 4
1.2.7. Mountain Meteorological Services…………………………………………………………………………………………. 4
1.2.8. Forecast Services for Sectorial Applications……………………………………………………………………………. 4
1.3. Revision of SOP……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 4
1.4. Responsibility of Forecasting Centres……………………………………………………………………………………………… 5
1.4.1. National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC)……………………………………………………………………….. 5
1.4.2. Regional Weather Forecasting Centre (RWFC)………………………………………….…………………………….. 6
1.4.3. State Weather Forecasting Centre (SWFC)……………………………………………………………………………… 6
1.4.4. Weather Central (WC), Pune…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 6
1.5. Forecast scheme………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 7
1.6. Forecast Generation………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8
1.7. Terminology used in Forecasts………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 9
1.7.1. Spatial distribution of Rainfall…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 9
1.7.2. Intensity of 24 hour accumulated rainfall……………………………………………………………………………….. 9
1.7.3. Intensity of 24 hours accumulated snowfall……………………………………………………………………………. 10
1.7.4. Probability of occurrence of weather event……………………………………………………………………………. 10
1.7.5. Description of temperature departure from normal………………………………………………………………. 11
1.7.6. Description of temperature tendency…………………………………………………………………………………….. 11
1.7.7. Symbols for Severe Weather representation………………………………………………………………………….. 11
1.7.8. Color Code for Weather Warning……………………………………………………………………………………………. 12
1.8. District Level Forecasts……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 13
1.9. City/Local Forecast………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 14
1.10. Forecasting Organizational Structure………………………………………………………………………………………………. 15
1.10.1. National Level………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 16
1.10.2. Weather Central, IMD, Pune…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 16
1.10.3. State Level /Regional Level…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 17
1.10.4. Meteorological Offices………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 18
1.11. Mandate of Different Forecasting Centres………………………………………………………………………………………. 18
1.11.1. NWFC…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 18
1.11.2. Weather Central, Pune…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 20
1.11.3. RWFC/SWFC…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 20
1.11.4. Meteorological Offices (Observatories) ……………………………………………………………………………….. 22
Appendix………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 23
Chapter 2 : Satellite application in Weather Forecasting 29-54
2.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 29
2.1.1. INSAT-3D & 3DR Satellite………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 29
2.1.2. Scatsat-1 Satellite…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 33
2.1.3. EUMETCast…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 34
2.1.3.1. METEOSAT-8 Satellite………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 34
2.1.3.2. Himawari Satellite……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 34
2.1.4. GNSS………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 35
2.1.5. Visualization of surface Lighting network Data over satellite images.......................................... 35
(i)
2.2. Cloud Imageries……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 36
2.2.1. Cloud Imagery of INSAT-3D & INSAT-3DR IMAGER…………………………………………………………………. 36
2.2.2. Imager Products from INSAT-3D & 3DR Satellite......................................................................... 45
2.2.3. Sounder Products…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 47
2.2.4. Dissemination…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 49
2.2.5. Real-time Analysis of Product and Information Dissemination (RAPID)...................................... 51
2.2.6. METEOSAT SEVIRI (spinning enhanced visible and infrared imager) located at 41.5°E 52
Meteosat 8- Channel Imageries..................................................................................................
2.2.7. GNSS………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 53
Chapter 3 : DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS & ITS APPLICATION 55-78
3.1. Radar network in India Meteorological Department........................................................................... 55
3.2. Operational scan strategies and radar data flow…………………………………………………………………………….. 56
3.2.1. Operational scan strategy……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 56
3.2.2. Doppler Weather Data……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 56
3.2.3. Sharing of Doppler Weather Radar Data…………………………………………………………………………………. 56
3.2.4. Data Flow……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 56
3.2.5. Networking, Power and other associated equipment................................................................. 57
3.3. Radar Operational details……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 57
3.4. Basics of weather radar products & its interpretation……………………………………………………………………. 58
3.4.1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 58
3.4.2. Interpretation of Basic Radar Images……………………………………………………………………………………… 58
3.4.3. Types of base data………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 59
3.5. IMD Doppler Weather Radar Products Colour Scales.......................................................................... 64
3.6. Meteorological Products Displayed on IMD Website.......................................................................... 65
3.6.1. PPI-Z product………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 65
3.6.2. Planned Position Indicator (PPI-V) …………………………………………………………………………………………. 66
3.6.3. MAX-Z (Maximum Reflectivity) Product....................................................................................... 67
3.6.4. Volume Velocity Processing (VVP-2) wind profile........................................................................ 68
3.6.5. Surface Rainfall Intensity (SRI) ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 69
3.6.6. Precipitation Accumulation (PAC) ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 70
3.7. GIS Products…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 70
3.7.1. Integrated Display of Weather and Thunderstorm Warnings...................................................... 70
3.7.2. All India Mosaic Product…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 72
3.8. Guidance for Bulletins from DWR Stations……………………………………………………………………………………… 72
Annexures………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 74
Chapter 4 : Public Weather Services 79-91
4.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 79
4.2. Requirement for Revision of SOP…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 79
4.3. Major Objectives of PWS…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 80
4.4. Major Stake holders………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 80
4.5. Main Products/Activities under PWS System………………………………………………………………………………….. 80
4.6. Functioning of PWS…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 82
4.6.1. Homogeneity in the contents of the Forecast and Warnings...................................................... 83
4.6.2. Mode of Dissemination of Forecast & Warnings under PWS....................................................... 83
4.7. Requirements for Efficient PWS………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 84
4.8. New Initiatives in PWS…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 85
4.8.1. Implementation of Impact based forecast………………………………………………………………………………. 86
4.8.2. Introduction of Common Alert Protocol in Dissemination of Forecast & Warnings.................... 86
4.8.3. Measures to improve the Outreach…………………………………………………………………………………….….. 87
4.8.4. Provision of Sector Specific Services............................................................................................ 88
Appendix………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 89
Chapter 5 : Heavy Rainfall Warning Services 92-135
5.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 92
5.2. Organisation and Area of responsibility………………………………………………………………………………………….. 94
5.2.1. Classification of Heavy Rainfall……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 94
(ii)
5.3. Climatology of Heavy Rainfall and Cloud Burst (CB) ……………………………………………………………………….. 96
5.3.1. Climatology of Heavy Rainfall…………………………………………………………………………………………………. 96
5.3.2. Climatology of Cloud Burst (CB) …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 96
5.4. Implementation of IBF and Risk based warning for Heavy rainfall event........................................... 98
5.5. Observation, Monitoring and Product generation of Heavy rainfall events....................................... 99
5.5.1. Rainfall products…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 99
5.6. Forecasting Techniques of Heavy rainfall………………………………………………………………………………………… 102
5.6.1. Diagnostic Method…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 102
5.6.2. Based on NWP Models……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 102
5.7. SOP of Heavy rainfall Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning system.................................................. 107
5.7.1. Steps for monitoring of Heavy rainfall……………………………………………………………………………………. 108
5.7.2. Heavy Rainfall Forecast Techniques………………………………………………………………………………………… 108
5.7.3. Analysis and Forecasting…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 109
5.7.4. Decision making process…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 109
5.7.5. Time line for analysis, forecast and dissemination...................................................................... 110
5.7.6. Forecast/warning services………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 110
5.7.6.1. Directory/List of Warnees……………………………………………………………………………………………. 110
5.7.7. HRW Products………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 110
5.7.7.1. Text of heavy rainfall warning in color code tabular form................................................ 110
5.7.7.2. In graphical form of Multi-hazard colour code maps...................................................... 111
5.7.8. SOP of Local Heavy rainfall forecast and Urban heavy Rainfall Monitoring and warning 111
services………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
5.7.8.1. SOP on Location specific heavy rainfall forecast- A a consensus approach of all 111
NWP model products and other checklist.................................................................
5.7.8.2. Objective of present SOP for issuing city/local forecast of heavy rainfall................. 111
5.7.8.3. Decision Making Process for Local heavy rainfall Forecast......................................... 114
5.7.8.4. Decision making & preparation of final forecast........................................................ 115
5.7.8.5 Meteograms of Location............................................................................................ 115
5.7.9. SOP of Heavy rainfall- Impact Based Forecast(IBF) and risk based warning................................ 116
5.7.9.1. What is IBF-Heavy rainfall……………………………………………………………………………………… 116
5.7.9.2. Stages of IBF-Heavy rainfalldevelopment and implementation in IMD..................... 117
5.7.9.3. Stages of implementation of IBF................................................................................ 118
5.7.9.4. SOP on IBFand Risk based warning of Heavy Rainfall Warning.................................. 120
5.7.9.5. SOP IBF and Risk based warnings for city, District and Met Sub-Division.................. 120
5.7.9.6. Decision making on IBF and warning......................................................................... 121
5.7.9.7. Real time Customized Heavy rainfall monitoring and IBF system operational over 121
Mumbai and Chennai……………………………………………………………………………………………
5.7.9.8. Heavy rainfall impact-Flood inundation forecast from FFGS..................................... 123
5.8. Forecast and Warning dissemination of Heavy rainfall....................................................................... 125
Annexures……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 126
Chapter 6 : Thunderstorm Warning Services 136-155
6.1. Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 136
6.2. Objective………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 139
6.3. Criteria of thunderstorm and associated warning…………………………………………………………………………. 140
6.3.1. Thunderstorm warnings and colour codes for warnings............................................................. 140
6.3.2. Duststorms warning……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 140
6.3.3. Lightning warning………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 140
6.4. Favourable conditions for thunderstorm occurrence.......................................................................... 140
6.4.1. Synoptic conditions……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 141
6.4.2. Thermodynamic conditions.......................................................................................................... 141
6.4.3. Dynamic conditions...................................................................................................................... 141
6.4.4. Thermo-dynamical indices........................................................................................................... 141
6.4.5.1. Sample check list for thunderstorm forecasting Products................................................ 142
6.4.5.2. Dust-storm........................................................................................................................ 142
6.5. Needed Inputs (data products and their availability)……………………………………………………………………… 143
(iii)
6.6. Organizations and their responsibilities............................................................................................... 144
6.6.1. NWP Division................................................................................................................................ 145
6.6.2. NWFC........................................................................................................................................ 145
6.6.3. Sat Met Application Cell............................................................................................................ 145
6.6.4. Radar Application......................................................................................................................... 145
6.6.5. RWFCs/ SWFCs............................................................................................................................. 145
6.6.6. Field offices (Observatories and Met offices) ............................................................................. 145
6.7. Monitoring and forecasting.................................................................................................................. 145
6.7.1. Monitoring................................................................................................................................... 145
6.7.2. Analysis and Forecasting.............................................................................................................. 146
6.7.3. Decision making process (Decision tree for forecasting of Thunderstorm).............................. 147
6.7.4. Timeline for analysis, forecast and dissemination....................................................................... 147
6.7.5. Forecast/ warning products......................................................................................................... 148
6.8. Forecast/Warning Dissemination......................................................................................................... 148
6.9. Post Event Review, feedback and documentation............................................................................... 149
6.10. Pre-season exercise............................................................................................................................... 149
6.11. Conclusions............................................................................................................................................ 149
Appendix................................................................................................................................................ 150
Chapter 7 : Heat and Cold Wave Monitoring & Warning 156-167
7.1. Objective................................................................................................................................................ 156
7.2. Observational aspects........................................................................................................................... 156
7.3. Analysis of the observations and declaration of Heat and cold wave................................................. 160
7.3.1. Criterion for declaring heat wave................................................................................................ 160
7.3.2. Criterion for declaring Cold Wave................................................................................................ 160
7.3.3. Meteorological favourable conditions for Heat wave.................................................................. 161
7.3.4. Meteorological favourable conditions for Cold wave.................................................................. 161
7.4. Role and responsibility of different offices of IMD.............................................................................. 161
7.5. Warning Product generation, presentation and dissemination.......................................................... 164
7.6. Recent developments............................................................................................................................ 165
7.6.1. Heat/cold wave Forecasting Demonstration Projects (FDPs)...................................................... 165
7.6.2. Heat wave action plan.................................................................................................................. 166
7.7. Preventive measures for Heat Wave.................................................................................................... 166
7.7.1. The measures one should do to minimize the impact during heat wave.................................... 166
7.7.2. The measures one should do to minimize the impact during cold wave..................................... 167
7.8. Documentation and Verification........................................................................................................... 167
Chapter 8 : Fog Warning Services 168-205
8.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 168
8.2. Basics of Fog events and Types in terms of physical process and local topography leading to 168
their formation......................................................................................................................................
8.2.1. Fog formation and associated process......................................................................................... 168
8.2.2. Mechanism of fog formation, intensification of layer, the maintenance phase and dissipation 169
Process........................................................................................................................................
8.2.3. Fog and Role of pollution............................................................................................................. 170
8.2.4. Classification of Fog events.......................................................................................................... 170
8.3. Fog occurrences over India................................................................................................................... 171
8.3.1. Classification of Fog into different types for India region and their Climatological 171
Characteristics............................................................................................................................
8.3.2. Longer duration dense fog spells over IGP and their Unique characteristic................................ 176
8.3.3. Variability and Extremes of fog occurrences across IGP and Impacts.......................................... 178
8.3.3.1. Variability and Extremes of fog occurrences across IGP................................................... 178
8.3.3.2. Analysis of fog Impact....................................................................................................... 179
8.4. Fog detection and Monitoring System operational in IMD.................................................................. 180
8.5. SOP on fog reporting in current weather and synoptic observations and issuing fog nowcasting 183
(trend), forecasts and Warnings...........................................................................................................
8.5.1. SOP on issuing Fog forecast and warning (discussion and finalization through VC 184
consultation daily) ......................................................................................................................
(iv)
8.5.2. SOP on Satellite based guidance tools for Fog monitoring and forecasting................................ 194
8.5.3. Standard operating procedures for interpretation of RGB products for fog monitoring and 194
forecasting..................................................................................................................................
8.5.3.1. Interpretation of Fog........................................................................................................ 194
8.5.4. How to refer multi-sources Fog products for reporting timely fog development and issuing 197
early warnings.............................................................................................................................
8.6. Fog Products available in Web page and link URL................................................................................ 200
8.7. SOP to include Impact based fog forecast tables and suggested action for various fog intensity 202
and occurrences at district/met sub-division depending upon exposure data………………………………..
References............................................................................................................................................. 204
Chapter 9 : Nowcasting Services 206-240
9.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 206
9.2. Objective................................................................................................................................................ 206
9.3. Standard Operating Procedure of Nowcast Services in IMD................................................................ 206
9.3.1. Categories for Nowcasting........................................................................................................... 207
9.3.2. Impact colours of Nowcasting...................................................................................................... 207
9.3.3. Organization of nowcast services in IMD..................................................................................... 208
9.3.4. Data Inputs (data products and their availability) ....................................................................... 208
9.3.5. Time line for analysis, forecast and dissemination of Nowcasts by a Nowcast Centre................ 209
9.3.6. Decision Tree of Nowcasting of Thunderstorm over a Station or District.................................... 210
9.3.7. Nowcasts to be issued by Nowcast Centre at State Meteorological Office................................. 210
9.3.8. Stakeholders (National/regional and state level) ........................................................................ 211
9.3.9. Post event review, feedback, documentation............................................................................. 211
9.3.10. Pre-season exercise.................................................................................................................... 212
9.4. Points for consideration........................................................................................................................ 212
Appendix................................................................................................................................................ 213
Chapter 10 : Multi-Hazard Early Warning System 241-253
10.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 241
10.1.1. Disaster...................................................................................................................................... 241
10.1.2. Hazard........................................................................................................................................ 241
10.1.3. Vulnerability............................................................................................................................... 242
10.1.4. Risk............................................................................................................................................. 242
10.1.5. Multi-Hazard Forewarning and Impact Assessment.................................................................. 243
10.1.6. Multi-hazard Warning System to Strengthen disaster preparedness........................................ 243
10.2. Warning Thresholds.............................................................................................................................. 244
10.2.1. Heavy Rainfall............................................................................................................................. 244
10.2.2. Thunder storm/ squall................................................................................................................ 244
10.2.3. Heat Wave.................................................................................................................................. 244
10.2.4. Cold Wave.................................................................................................................................. 245
10.2.5. Cyclone....................................................................................................................................... 246
10.2.6. Port Warnings............................................................................................................................ 246
10.2.7. Fishermen warning..................................................................................................................... 247
10.3. Multi hazard Warning System............................................................................................................... 247
10.3.1. Activity chart of Multi-hazard Warning Centre.......................................................................... 248
10.3.2. Text Message of Multi- Hazard Warnings.................................................................................. 250
10.3.3. Timeliness of Map generation and transmission....................................................................... 251
10.3.4. Dissemination System................................................................................................................ 251
10.3.4.1. Dissemination and Information Flow of CAP Message using NDMA tool...................... 251
10.4. Cyclone warning Dissemination................................................................................................... 252
Annexure................................................................................................................................................ 253
Chapter 11 : Urban Meteorological Services 254-266
11.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 254
11.2. Current status of observational network............................................................................................. 255
11.3. Weather information deliverables for urban cities.............................................................................. 256
11.3.1. Current weather information..................................................................................................... 257
(v)
11.3.2. Weather forecasts...................................................................................................................... 257
11.3.2.1. Now cast (for next 6 hours and updated every 15 minutes as and when triggered by 257
observing system) ........................................................................................................
11.3.2.2. Very short range (for next 12 hours and updated every 3 hours).................................. 257
11.3.2.3. Short range (for next 72 hours starting from 12 hours and updated twice a day)......... 257
th th
11.3.2.4. Medium range (4 day – 7 day updated twice a day).................................................. 257
11.3.2.5. Extended Range forecast for monthly outlook updated weekly.................................... 257
11.3.2.6. Long Range weather forecastfor a season...................................................................... 257
11.4. Inputs needed for urban weather forecast.......................................................................................... 257
11.4.1. Observing system....................................................................................................................... 258
11.4.2. NWP Products............................................................................................................................ 258
11.4.2.1. Global Model analysis and forecasts – updated 4 times daily for next 7 days at 1 258
hour for day 1 and 3 hour interval thereafter (from HQs)............................................
11.4.2.2. Meso-scale Model analysis and forecasts – updated four times daily for next 3 days 259
at 1 hour interval (from HQs) .......................................................................................
11.4.2.3. High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) products - updated hourly basis for next 24 259
hours at 1 hour interval (from HQs) .............................................................................
11.4.2.4. Now cast Products.......................................................................................................... 259
11.4.3. Climate Database..................................................................................................................... 259
11.5. SOP of Urban weather forecast............................................................................................................ 260
11.5.1. Impact Based Forecast............................................................................................................... 260
11.6. Event wise urban meteorology services............................................................................................... 260
11.6.1. Heavy rainfall............................................................................................................................. 260
11.6.2. Heat wave and cold wave.......................................................................................................... 260
11.6.3. Thunderstorm and lightening.................................................................................................... 261
11.6.4. Fog.............................................................................................................................................. 261
11.6.5. Cyclone....................................................................................................................................... 261
11.6.6. Integrated Flood Warning System (I-FLOWS) ............................................................................ 261
11.7. Stakeholders.......................................................................................................................................... 263
11.8. Post-event Review................................................................................................................................. 263
11.9. Conclusion............................................................................................................................................. 263
Annexure................................................................................................................................................ 264
Chapter 12 : Marine Weather Forecasting Services 267-292
12.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 267
12.2. Global Maritime Distress Safety System (GMDSS) .............................................................................. 267
12.2.1. Global Maritime Distress Safety System.................................................................................... 267
12.2.2. Transmission of GMDSS bulletin................................................................................................ 269
12.2.3. Contents of GMDSS Bulletin....................................................................................................... 269
12.2.4. Frequency of Broadcasts............................................................................................................ 269
12.2.5. Sample of GMDSS bulletin......................................................................................................... 269
12.3. Sea Area Bulletin................................................................................................................................... 273
12.3.1. Sea area bulletins for Bay of Bengal........................................................................................... 273
12.3.2. Format of ‘daily’ bulletin............................................................................................................ 274
12.3.3. Sample Sea Area Bulletin for Bay of Bengal............................................................................... 275
12.4. Coastal Weather Bulletins..................................................................................................................... 276
12.4.1. Format of Coastal Weather Bulletin........................................................................................... 276
12.5. Fleet forecast for Indian Navy............................................................................................................... 278
12.5.1. Contents of Fleet Forecast......................................................................................................... 279
12.5.2. Mode of Transmission of Fleet Forecast to Naval W/T Mumbai............................................... 279
12.6. Warnings to Ports.................................................................................................................................. 280
12.6.1. Port warnings............................................................................................................................. 280
12.6.2. The office of responsibility......................................................................................................... 280
12.6.3. Hoisting of signals...................................................................................................................... 280
12.6.4. Frequency of Issue and contents of Port Warning Bulletin........................................................ 282
12.6.5. Format for Port Warning............................................................................................................ 282
12.6.6. Explanation of the port warnings............................................................................................... 282
(vi)
12.6.7. Meanings of Signals.................................................................................................................... 282
12.6.8. Some General Rules regarding Signals....................................................................................... 284
12.6.8.1. Signals Confirm to Intensity of Systems.......................................................................... 284
12.6.8.2. Typical Progression of Signals......................................................................................... 284
12.6.8.3. Signals not to be Kept Hoisted Longer than Necessary.................................................. 284
12.6.8.4. Informatory messages due to Steep Pressure Gradient................................................. 284
12.6.8.5. Informatory Messages for Brief Ports............................................................................. 284
12.6.9. Text of Warnings to Ports........................................................................................................... 285
12.6.10. Transmission of messages to ports.......................................................................................... 285
12.7. Frequency of messages to ports for hoisting the signals..................................................................... 285
12.7.1. For Distant Signals...................................................................................................................... 285
12.7.2. For LC III Or Higher Signals......................................................................................................... 285
12.7.3. For Ports without signals............................................................................................................ 285
12.8. Warnings for Fisheries........................................................................................................................... 285
12.8.1. Issuing office and area of responsibility.................................................................................... 285
12.8.2. Criteria for issuing fisherman warning....................................................................................... 286
12.8.3. Time and Frequency of issue...................................................................................................... 286
12.8.4. Mode of transmission of Fishermen warnings........................................................................... 287
12.8.5. Format for fisheries Warning..................................................................................................... 288
12.9. The source of information and products.............................................................................................. 288
12.10. Other products generated by Cyclone Warning Division/ RSMC New Delhi…………………………………… 288
12.10.1. Ship avoidance guidance.......................................................................................................... 288
12.11. Damage potential and action suggested in the bulletin...................................................................... 289
12.12. Terminologies in the bulletins.............................................................................................................. 290
12.13. Marine impact of cyclonic storms......................................................................................................... 292
12.14. Nomograms........................................................................................................................................... 292
12.14.1. For wave height estimation..................................................................................................... 292
12.14.2. Nomogram for visibility estimation in rain.............................................................................. 292
12.15. Product generation................................................................................................................................ 292
Chapter 13 : Meteorological Communication & Early Dissemination 293-308
13.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 293
13.2. Automatic Messaging Switching System (AMSS) ................................................................................ 294
13.3. Availability of data................................................................................................................................ 298
13.3.1. VPN Circuits................................................................................................................................ 298
13.3.2. IVRS............................................................................................................................................ 298
13.3.3. Internet Services........................................................................................................................ 298
13.4. Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS)............................................................ 299
13.5. World Information System (WIS) ......................................................................................................... 300
13.6. On line Briefing System (OLBS) at Chennai & Delhi (Palam)................................................................ 301
13.7. Warning System In India Meteorological Department........................................................................ 301
13.8. Telecommunication Infrastructure....................................................................................................... 304
13.9. Video-Conferencing Network................................................................................................................ 304
13.10. Website of IMD...................................................................................................................................... 306
13.11. EPBAX..................................................................................................................................................... 307
13.12. FTP Server.............................................................................................................................................. 307
13.13. ICITC....................................................................................................................................................... 307
13.14. Conclusion............................................................................................................................................. 308
Chapter 14 : Post-Event Survey 309-316
14.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 309
14.2. Identification of high impact weather event (HIWE) needing post-event survey............................... 309
14.3. Purpose of survey.................................................................................................................................. 309
14.4. Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) for Post-Event survey............................................................... 309
14.4.1. Assessment of damage.............................................................................................................. 309
14.4.1.1. Use of departmental transport/hiring of transport for damage survey......................... 309
14.4.2. Contents of survey report.......................................................................................................... 309
14.4.2.1 .For Cyclone..................................................................................................................... 310
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14.4.2.2. For severe thunderstorm / lightning.............................................................................. 310
14.4.2.3. For tornado..................................................................................................................... 310
14.4.2.4. For cloud burst................................................................................................................ 310
14.5. Guidelines and instructions for Officers going on surveys of damage caused by HIWE..................... 310
14.5.1. Knowledge of SOP...................................................................................................................... 310
14.5.2. Equipment.................................................................................................................................. 311
14.5.3. Guidelines for survey................................................................................................................. 311
14.5.3.1. Itinerary of tour............................................................................................................. 311
14.5.3.2. Damage to be assessed in great detail......................................................................... 311
14.5.3.3. Height and extension of storm surge (in case of cyclone only).................................... 312
14.5.3.4. Photographs/video to aid such survey.......................................................................... 312
14.5.3.5. Spare Camera/Smart Phone......................................................................................... 312
14.5.3.6. Interviewing local people who had experienced the severe weather phenomenon... 312
14.5.3.7. Sample Questions......................................................................................................... 313
14.5.3.8. Track of the Event......................................................................................................... 313
14.5.3.9. Ring of maximum winds and relative strength in different quadrants (in case of 313
cyclone only) ................................................................................................................
14.5.3.10. Rainfall.................................................................................................................................. 313
14.5.3.11. Copies of photographic records etc. .................................................................................... 313
14.5.3.12. Detailed sketch of damage and derived parameters............................................................ 313
14.5.3.13. Contacting Warnees: Working of the warning system.......................................................... 313
Annexures.............................................................................................................................................. 315
Chapter 15 : Forecast Verification 317-330
15.1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 317
15.2. Types of forecast and forecast verification methods........................................................................... 317
15.2.1. Methods for dichotomous (yes/no) forecasts........................................................................... 318
15.2.2. Forecasts issued by IMD............................................................................................................. 319
15.3. General Forecasting Organisation......................................................................................................... 319
15.4. Current status of verification................................................................................................................ 323
15.5. SOP......................................................................................................................................................... 323
15.6. Verification of Local Forecast................................................................................................................ 323
15.6.1. Issue of local forecast................................................................................................................. 325
15.6.2. Format for issuing local forecast................................................................................................ 325
15.7. Verification of district level agro-meteorological forecast.................................................................. 328
15.8. Verification of quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) issued by FMOs.......................................... 328
15.9. Verification of sub-division level forecasts........................................................................................... 329
15.10. Future scope.......................................................................................................................................... 330
List of Contributors and Reviewers for SOP-2021 331
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Foreword
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is principal government agency in the country in all matters
relating to meteorology and allied subjects. It has continuously ventured into new areas of application and
services, and steadily built upon its infra-structure in its history of 146 years. It has simultaneously nurtured
the growth of meteorology and atmospheric science in India and is poised at the threshold of an exciting
future. India, being a tropical country, experiences various severe weather events like cyclones, severe
thunderstorms, squalls, flash floods, snow avalanches, heat wave, cold wave, heavy rainfall etc. These
severe weather events can cause wide spread loss to life and property.
Owing to high impact of severe weather events and its consequential influence on social, cultural,
commercial, health, defence, transport etc. and the increased public awareness, it is felt that there is a
requirement of a well laid out system/methodology for monitoring of these weather events by India
Meteorological Department (IMD). Considering these, IMD has brought out Standard Operation Procedure
(SOP), to provide uniform monitoring of weather especially disastrous weather events. The manual
contains chapters on General Forecasting Organization of IMD, Satellite Application in Weather Forecasting,
Radar Application in Weather Forecasting, Public Weather Services, Heavy Rainfall Warning Services,
Thunderstorm Warning Services, Heat & Cold Wave Warning Services, Fog Warning Services, Nowcasting
Services, Multi-hazard Early Warning System , Urban Meteorological Services, Marine Weather Forecasting
Services , Meteorological Communication and Early Warning Dissemination, Post Event survey and Forecast
Verification. This manual will prove to be very helpful to the operational forecasters and will serve as a
valuable document for carrying out research activities.
The reduction of damage due to a disastrous weather event depends on several factors viz. the skill in their
prediction, timely dissemination of warnings and the public perception about the credibility of the official
predictions and warnings. While formulating these guidelines, we have involved experts from various
forecasting units of IMD so that a standard procedure is followed throughout the country for effective
analysis, monitoring and dissemination of warning to minimize damage to life and property from disastrous
weather events.
I express my deep appreciation to all the experts and the officials involved for their commitment and
dedication in bringing out this publication.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra
New Delhi
March, 2021
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I am thankful to the Core Group members for their unrelenting cooperation in the extensive effort that
went into the formulation of the standard Operation Procedures (SOP) Manual by India Meteorological
Department (IMD).
I would like to place on record my deep appreciation for the significant contributions made by Dr. S. D.
Attri, Shri Y. K. Reddy, Shri K. C. Sai Krishnan, Dr. G. C. Debnath, Dr. S. Balachandran, Dr. Medha Khole,
Dr. Sanjib Bandyopadhyay, Dr. Sathi Devi, Dr. R. K. Jenamani, Shri Virendra Singh, Shri Charan Singh,
Dr. Jayanta Sarkar, Dr. Soma Sen Roy, Dr. S. D. Kotal, Ms. Sunitha Devi, Dr. R. K. Giri, Ms. Neeta K Gopal,
Dr. Ganesh Das, Dr. Manorama Mohanty, Dr. Sankar Nath, Dr. Kuldeep Srivastava, Shri Saurav Adhikari,
Dr. Sankar Nath, Dr. N. Puviarasan, Shri B. A. M. Kannan, Dr. H. R. Biswas, Dr. Naresh Kumar, Dr. Ashok
Kumar Das, Dr. Kuldeep Srivastava, Dr. A. K. Mitra, Shri Sunit Das, Dr. A. K. Das, Dr. Ganesh Das, Shri Krishna
Mishra, Shri Amit Kumar, Shri Chinmay R. Khadke, Shri Ramashray Yadav, Shri R. Bibraj, Shri Ved Prakash
Singh, Ms. Arpita Rastogi, Shri Shobhit Katiyar, Shri Ranjan Phukan, Shri Chinmay Khadke, Shri Radheshyam
Sharma, Dr. Shashi Kant, Shri Chinmay Khadke, Shri Sandeep Kumar Sharma, Shri B. Shibin, Shri R. Bibraj,
Ms. Nitha T. S., Dr. Lata Vishnoi, Shri Sunny Chug, Dr. Sourish Bandyopadhyay, Shri Sudeep Kumar B. L.,
Shri Debapriya Roy, Shri Umasankar Das, Shri Atul Singh and Dr. S. Sanap for their unrelenting cooperation
in the extensive effort that went into the formulation of the Standard Operation Procedures (SOP) Manual
by India Meteorological Department (IMD).
I sincerely compliment and appreciate Dr. S. I. Laskar for his significant contribution in coordinating with
authors and reviewers, editing, compiling and hence the timely publication of this SOP.
I also appreciate the support provided by the officials of Publication Division and DGM’s Secretariat in this
endeavour.
New Delhi Mrutyunjay Mohapatra

March, 2021
(x)
General Forecasting Organisation of IMD
Chapter 1
GENERAL FORECASTING ORGANISATION OF

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
1.1. Introduction
Weather forecasting in India commenced with the establishment of India Meteorological Department (IMD) in 1875
and over a period of time, a network of forecasting organizations has been developed in IMD. Being a tropical country,
India experiences severe weather events like cyclones, severe thunderstorms, flash floods, snow avalanches etc. To
understand the science behind such weather systems there is need to understand tropical meteorology in different
space and time scales. With the development of science and technology and advancements in computers together
with induction of observational aids like Doppler weather radars and satellites, there has been better understanding
of weather phenomena in all the scales leading to improvement in daily operational weather forecasts. Recent
modernization of IMD’s activities including commissioning of newly acquired modern observing equipments, induction
of high resolution numerical weather prediction models and the utilisation of high power computing systems for
running numerical models etc. has lead to further improvements in the quality of forecasting services. The forecasting
service has also gained importance in sector specific applications and demands have increased for providing sector
specific tailor made high resolution forecast products in both spatial and temporal scale. These demands are met
through a strong organisational set up of the forecasting services. Details of the same are given in this chapter.
The forecasting organisation is set up with the following objectives:
• To improve coordination between all relevant operational centres across the country in the national, regional
and state level, in matters related to daily forecasting.
• To update the products & warnings several times a day to meet user expectations.
• To increase consistency and accuracy of all the forecast products for different services viz. general weather,
agromet, marine, aviation, mountain weather etc. through use of better fitted techniques, collaborative work,
and complementary roles.
• To issue district level forecast and nowcasts and bring out further improvements in the system. This is a
challenge as it deals with downscaling short range forecasts to district level.
• To improve city forecast which require location specific assessment of the weather scenario.
• To provide marine forecast (for both high seas and coastal areas) and Fishermen Warning and further
improvements in the system.
• To provide Cyclone warning services for the Low pressure systems forming over the North Indian Ocean through
modernized tropical cyclone tracking modules/systems.
• To provide impact based warning services related to different weather scenario.
• To provide impact based weather forecast for heavy rainfall for the capital cities.
• To take into account the new requirements of forecasting Services.
• To do Research & Development work to support betterment of the services.
1.2. Current Forecasting Organization
National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC) at IMD New Delhi is coordinating IMD’s forecasting activities for the
entire country and the Weather Central, IMD, Pune functions as the standby Centre for NWFC. While the Regional
Meteorological Centres (RMCs) carry out weather monitoring and forecasting for their respective regions, the
Meteorological Centers (MCs) at the state capitals do the same for their respective states. Cyclone related operational
activities are being monitored and coordinated by Cyclone Warning Directorate (CWD), IMD, New Delhi in the
headquarters’ level. This unit also functions as the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for tropical
cyclones for the WMO region. Area Cyclone Warning Centres (ACWCs) and Cyclone Warning Centres (CWCs) take care
of the cyclone warning services of the coastal states as well as marine weather services, as per their area of
responsibility. The Hydrometeorology Division, IMD, New Delhi coordinates the Flood forecasting related services
being carried out through Flood Meteorological Offices (FMOs) and collects the data and prepares rainfall statistics for
the entire country. Agromet Forecasting Services are coordinated by Agricultural Meteorology Division, IMD Pune
1
SOP for Weather Forecasting and Warning
whereas the liaisoning work related to Agromet services are carried out by Agro Advisory Service Division (AASD),
IMD, New Delhi.
1.2.1. General Forecast
• National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC) at IMD New Delhi provides procedural and technical coordination
related to forecasting services. The centre coordinates the forecasting/nowcasting work at the national, regional
and state levels, prepares documentation on realized weather with contributions from Weather Central, IMD,
Pune, RMCs and MCs, issues forecasting related circulars, organizes Annual Monsoon and Cyclone review
meetings every year to review the previous year’s forecast performance, analyses user feedback and forecasting
appraisal by various centres so as to deliberate and device methodologies for improvement of the services.
• NWFC, IMD New Delhi acts as the main operational interface for all weather related matters to the Government
of India and provides suitable information / briefing on realized and forecasted weather for the country as a
whole to different government agencies including National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).
• NWFC provides forecast and warning related information to Press & Media, All India Radio, Doordarshan and
other users. It also provides forecasts for Western Himalayan Region and issues special forecasts for various
activities including sports, tourism, mountain expeditions, VVIP movements, Independence and Republic day
celebrations etc.
• NWFC prepares, finalizes and provides inputs for parliament questions, grievances and RTI queries related to
weather forecasting services in the national level.
• Regional Weather Forecasting Centres (RWFCs) in RMCs/ State Weather Forecasting Centres (SWFCs) in MCs act
as the operational interface for the weather forecast and warning services extended to the respective State
Government and various government departments and provide necessary information/briefing on realized and
forecasted weather at the district level and also for the important cities in the state. It provides the weather
information to all the users related to state disaster management and also to electronic and print media etc.
• Warnings related to Heavy rainfall, Heat wave, Cold wave, Fog, Thunderstorm and associated phenomena viz.,
Lightning, Squall, Gusty winds, Hail etc. are issued by all the forecasting centres as and when the required
conditions arise. Guidelines for the purpose are available in the form of Forecaster’s Guide. For Standard
Operational Procedures for those high impact weather phenomena, the chapters related to the same in this
document may be referred to.
1.2.2. Marine Forecast
Forecasts and warning services for high seas are coordinated by Marine Service Division of NWFC, IMD New Delhi with
contributions from ACWC Kolkata for Bay of Bengal and ACWC Mumbai for Arabian Sea. This division issues Global
Maritime Distress Safety System (GMDSS) Bulletin for the Area VIII N as well as Fleet Forecast for Indian Ocean
between Latitude 5⁰ N to 10 ⁰ S and Longitude 60⁰ to 100⁰ E .This division also issue Fishermen Warning for coastal as
well as for deep sea areas of North Indian Ocean in both text and pictorial format. ACWCs/ CWCs issue coastal
bulletins and fishermen warnings for their respective areas of responsibility in consultation with NWFC, IMD New
Delhi. Details of the area of responsibility (pertaining to coastal areas) for ACWCs/CWCs are given in Table 1.1.
Table 1.1
Area of responsibility of ACWCs/CWCs

Area of Responsibility
Centre Sea Area Coastal Area Coastal states
ACWC Kolkotta Bay of West Bengal, Andaman & West Bengal, Andaman &
Bengal Nicobar islands Nicobar islands
ACWC Chennai - Tamil Nadu & Puducherry Tamil Nadu & Puducherry
ACWC Mumbai Arabian Sea Maharashtra, Goa Maharashtra, Goa
CWC Bhubaneshwar - Odisha Odisha
CWC Visakhapatnam - Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh
CWC - Kerala, Karnataka Kerala, Karnataka &
Thiruvananthapuram Lakshadweep
CWC Ahmedabad -- Gujarat, Diu, Daman, Dadra Gujarat, Diu, Daman, Dadra
& Nagar Haveli & Nagar Haveli
2
1.2.3. Cyclone Warning
The Cyclone Warning Organization of the Department is given in Figure 1.1.
Figure 1.1. Cyclone Warning Organisational Structure of IMD
Cyclone warning procedures are well structured, through the so called “red book” at national level and “Cyclone
Manual” at IMD level. Crisis Disaster Management related to cyclones is taken care through efficient coordination at
various levels. At national level, National Disaster Management Council (chaired by Prime Minister’s Office) interacts
with DGM or other senior officer concerned of IMD Headquarters. At State level, State Disaster Management Council
(chaired by Chief Minister of State) interacts with Head of RMC/ACWC/CWC and at district level, District Disaster
Management Council (chaired by District Collector or magistrate), interacts with Head of RMC/MC / CWC. The ACWCs,
located in Kolkata, Chennai, and Mumbai in coordination with the CWCs located at Bhubaneshwar, Visakhapatnam,
Thiruvananthapuram and Ahmedabad take care of the operational cyclone warning related work as per their area of
responsibility given in Table 1.1., under the guidance of CWD, IMD, New Delhi.
With respect to cyclone warning services, the department has international responsibilities also and thus functions
also as Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for tropical cyclone forecasting for the region. The area of
responsibility of RSMC New Delhi is given in Figure 1.2.
Figure 1.2. Area of responsibility for RSMC, New Delhi
3
1.2.4. Agrometeorological Services
Weather forecasts for agriculture are issued at RMC/MC level through their Agromet Advisory Service (AAS) units. Five
days’ quantitative district level forecasts are issued by RMCs and MCs twice a week using Numerical Weather
Prediction model products, after carrying out value addition based on synoptic analysis. The final forecast is forwarded
from AAS units of RMCs/MCs to various Agro Meteorological Field Units (AMFUs) and District Agro-Met Units
(DAMUs) of the states. Based on these forecasts, AMFUs and DAMUs in turn issue agromet advisories for the farmers
of their respective areas/districts. The coordination with RMCs/MCs and AMFUs/DAMUs is managed jointly by Head
(AASD), IMD New Delhi and Head (Agromet), IMD, Pune.
1.2.5. Flood Meteorological Offices
For flood related services, IMD has established Flood Meteorological Offices (FMOs) at thirteen locations, viz., Agra,
Ahmedabad, Asansol, Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Jalpaiguri, Lucknow, New Delhi, Patna, Srinagar,
Bengaluru and Chennai and also supports Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) for their flood forecasting activities for
Damodar river basin areas. Through these FMOs, IMD provides meteorological support to Central Water Commission
(CWC) for issuing flood warnings in respect of the 43 rivers of India covering 153 river basins. CWC issues flood
forecasts 6 hrs. to 30 hrs. in advance for about 176 locations using the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) as
well as the hydro meteorological data received from IMD.
1.2.6. Nowcast Services
The weather phenomena like thunderstorms, hailstorms etc. are short lived but are highly disastrous due to the
associated weather elements like squalls and lightning. Hence continuous monitoring and issue of warning for these
severe weather events are necessary. Since they develop and dissipate within a short period, they can be better
covered by nowcasts than short range forecasts.
To support nowcast services, the Nowcast Division of NWFC issues nowcast guidance bulletin on daily basis which
gives the details of the expected severe weather phenomena and its intensity along with the area of occurrence, so
that the concerned RWFC/SWFC can keep continuous watch for the development of those severe weather and issue
nowcasts accordingly. These nowcasts are uploaded in the nowcast page of the IMD website and are disseminated
through SMS and social media also for the benefit of general public and disaster managers.IMD at present issue
nowcast for about 897 locations across the countries which are coming under radar range.
1.2.7. Mountain Meteorological Services
The Mountain Meteorology Division of NWFC issues weather forecast bulletins for Western Himalayan Region twice
daily, based on 0830 & 1430 hours observations. These bulletins contain observed weather as well as forecast and
warnings for Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh divisions of J&K, High hills and lower hills regions of Himachal Pradesh and
Garhwal & Kumaon regions of Uttarakhand for seven days .These bulletins are disseminated through emails to
Meteorological Centres at Srinagar, Shimla, Dehradun and to Snow& Avalanche Study Establishmet (SASE) through
email and are uploaded in IMD Website also.
NWFC also provides weather forecast service on demand to various government agencies and defence services to
support their mountain expeditions related requirements through this division.
1.2.8. Forecast Services for Sectorial Applications
Requirement of weather information and forecast for specific sectors viz., sports, tourism, pilgrimage, transport
(highway), railways, aviation, power Sector, health, urban and environment services etc. are taken care of by
designated units located in IMD, New Delhi and in RMCs/MCs.
1.3. Revision of SOP
From the modest beginning in 1875, IMD has progressively expanded its infrastructure with respect to meteorological
observations, forecasting services and meteorological communications. The Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) for
handling operational aspects of weather forecast services was first published by IMD in 2012. Thereafter many
4
changes, addition and improvements in various aspects of the service have come into effect under modernization
programme. Revision of old SOP has thus become essential to take care of those changes.
1.4. Responsibility of Forecasting Centres
In order to deliver effective forecast and related services to general public and different user agencies including
disaster management authority, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has a three-tier structure for providing
weather forecasts and warnings for natural calamities like heavy rainfall, snowfall, thunderstorm, hailstorm, heat
wave, cold wave etc. The National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC) at IMD Headquarters, New Delhi issues All
India Weather Bulletin for 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country as a whole on daily basis and the same is
updated three times within twenty four hours. This bulletin more or less serve as a guidance bulletin for the
subordinate offices and based upon that bulletin, the forecasting centres of Regional Meteorological Centres (RMCs)
and State Meteorological Centres (SMCs) issue forecast and warning in the district level. NWFC also issues nowcast
guidance bulletin for the severe weather elements like thunderstorm, heavy rainfall, fog etc. based on which the
RWFCs and the SWFCs issue nowcast in every three hours or as and when required related to the concerned severe
weather phenomena. In additional to this, Mountain Weather Bulletins for Western Himalayan Region and Global
Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) bulletins for Area VIII N as well as Fleet Forecast for Indian Ocean
between Latitude 5 ⁰N to 10 ⁰S and Longitude 60⁰ to 100⁰ E related to marine weather are also issued from NWFC two
times respectively in a day. NWFC also issue special forecasts for events like Independence Day and Republic Day
celebrations and extends forecast and warning support to mountain expedition teams and for Amarnathji Yathra etc.,
every year.
The three tier structure of the forecasting services is summarised below.
1.4.1. National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC) : Functions from IMD New Delhi and is responsible for weather
monitoring and forecast for the entire country. Forecasts are issued in the sub divisional scale from this centre four
times a day. The different subdivisions of the country are shown with serial numbers in Figure 1.2 and their
corresponding details are given in Table 1.2.
Figure 1.2. Meteorological sub-divisions of the Country
5
Table 1.2.
Details of the Meteorological sub-divisions of the Country
S. No. Name of Sub-division S. No. Name of Sub-division

1. Andaman & Nicobar 19. West Madhya Pradesh
2. Arunachal Pradesh 20. East Madhya Pradesh
3. Assam & Meghalaya 21. Gujarat Region
4. Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura 22. Saurashtra & Kutch
5. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim 23. Konkan & Goa
6. Gangetic West Bengal 24. Madhya Maharashtra
7. Odisha 25. Marathwada
8. Jharkhand 26. Vidarbha
9. Bihar 27. Chhattisgarh
10. East Uttar Pradesh 28. Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam
11. West Uttar Pradesh 29. Telangana
12. Uttarakhand, 30. Rayalaseema
13. Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi 31. Tamilnadu & Puducherry & Karaikal
14. Punjab 32. Coastal Karnataka
15. Himachal Pradesh 33. North Interior Karnataka
16. Jammu, Kashmir & Ladakh 34. South Interior Karnataka
17. West Rajasthan 35. Kerala & Mahe
18. East Rajasthan 36. Lakshadweep
1.4.2. Regional Weather Forecasting Centre (RWFC) : The RWFCs function from the Regional Meteorological
Centres (RMCs) situated at New Delhi, Mumbai, Nagpur, Kolkota, Guwahati and Chennai. They monitor weather and
issue forecasts/warnings for their area of responsibility in sub divisional scale/parts of the subdivisions. A region
normally consists of a few meteorological subdivisions. The Regional Meteorological Centre also has the responsibility
to issue district wise forecast and warnings, district wise/location specific nowcasts and city/tourism forecast for the
state in which it is located. In case of Maharashtra, this responsibility is however shared between RWFC Mumbai and
RWFC Nagpur. Among the different RWFCs, those located at Kolkota, Chennai and Mumbai function also as ACWCs
and carryout the marine forecast services and cyclone warning services for their respective areas of responsibility.
1.4.3. State Weather Forecasting Centre (SWFC) : The SWFCs situated at the state capitals carry out weather
monitoring and issue district level forecasts/warnings and districtwise/location specific nowcasts for the state for
which they are responsible. It also has the responsibility to issue city forecast for important cities /tourist places within
the state. The SWFCs at Ahmedabad, Thiruvananthapuram and Bhubaneshwar function also as CWCs and carryout the
marine forecast services and cyclone warning services for their respective areas of responsibility.
1.4.4. Weather Central (WC), Pune : The functioning of Weather Central, Pune is similar to that of NWFC in respect of
technical analysis and finalization of forecast. The centre archives past weather data, prepares Indian Daily Weather
Report (IDWR) and carries out analysis and documentation of seasonal weather for publication purpose. The centre
also regularly carry out analysis of surface and upper air weather charts of both morning and evening and do its
archival in digital format for its future use. These digitized charts are circulated to different forecast centres also
immediately after their preparation on daily basis for their display and archival for future use. In additional to this, the
centre conducts map discussion on every Friday in which the realized weather of the previous meteorological week
and the forecast for the running week is discussed in detail. These map discussions are attended by officials from IITM,
students from Universities and also by retired officials of IMD and IITM etc.
6
The weather forecasting organization of the department is given in Figure 1.3.
IMD’sing
Weat her Forecast Operational
Services in Weather
IM D : AnForecasting System
Int egral Approach
O bservat ions Communicat ion Analyses & Forecast ing Disseminat ion
Surface Observations
Central / State Govt/ Media/ Public

Manned (559) +
Automatic (125) Delhi
Stations
Data-flow at Three Hourly
National Weather
Intervals on 24x7 Mode
Forecasting
Upper-Air Observations Centre State
Level
Pune
Aircraft Reports Regional Weather Central
Met.
Telecom Centres
Hub (RTH) IMD, Delhi
Ship Reports
NWP forecasts
Airport
Ocean Buoys data
(Deployed by Dept. of Ocean
Met.
Data ported to
Development) NCMRWF for Offices
medium range
weather forecasts
Satellite
Observations
Sat. Met Division, IMD Regional Centres – 6
(Deployed by Department of
Space) Cyclone Warning
Centres - 6
Radar
Global Networks
Data
Figure 1.3. Weather forecasting organization of IMD
1.5. Forecast scheme
The scheme for issue of forecast by various offices is shown in Table 1.3.
(i) Forecasts will be issued 4 times a day by NWFC. It includes one main weather bulletin around mid day and
remaining three are updates of the same. RWFCs/SWFCs will issue forecast two times a day; one main bulletin around
mid day and an update in the night.
(ii) All the bulletins should include time of issue and time of observations based on which it is issued which forms the
basis of bulletin, validity period of the bulletin and next time of issue of update.
(iii) Meteorological day is considered from 0830 hrs IST of any day concerned to 0830 hrs IST of the next day. The
forecasts issued from NWFC/RWFCs/SWFCs on any day are valid for 120 hours (five days) from the date and time of
th
issue. Thus, forecasts issued for Day 1 on say 11 of a month in the morning, midday, evening and night all would be
th th
valid upto 0830 hrs of 12 only. And the forecast issued for Day 5 on 11 in all the above bulletins will be valid from
th th
0830 hrs IST of 15 upto 0830 hrs of 16 . Thus the validity period is not exactly 120 hrs with respect to the time of
issue of every forecast bulletin within a day.
th
(iv) The outlook will be valid for a subsequent period of 48 hrs (2 days). For example, forecasts issued on say 11 of
th th
a month in the morning, midday, evening and night will contain the outlook for 16 and 17 valid from 0830 hrs IST of
th th
16 upto 0830 hrs of 18 .
(v) Forecasts issued for Day 1 cover the weather expected during 24 hrs period, Day 2 for the period between 24 to
48 hrs, Day 3 for the period between 48 to 72 hours, Day 4 for the period between 72 to 96 hours and Day 5 for the
period between 96 to 120hrs.
(vi) Warnings for severe weather expected are also included in the bulletins as per the ongoing season. For example
warning for fog/cold wave etc are included during the winter season whereas warning for heatwaves are included
during the summer/pre monsoon season as per the criteria followed.
7
(vii) The forecast and warnings issued from NWFC are in the subdivisional scale for the country as a whole whereas
the same from SWFC are in the district scale for the state concerned. Forecast and warning issued from RWFC are for
the subdivision as whole or for sectors of subdivision while it also issue district level forecast and warning for the state
in which it is located.
(viii) The weather bulletin contains a brief summary of the observations, description of the prevailing synoptic
situations and significant features in addition to the forecast, warnings and the outlook.
(ix) The Daily Weather Bulletin (Mid Day) issued from RWFCs/SWFCs includes a brief advisory for farmers which are
generally broadcasted by All India Radio.
The Example for Multi Hazard Warning Bulletin issued by NWFC is given in Appendix I and the same for forecast and
warning bulletin issued from SWFC Bhubaneshwar are given in Appendix II and III respectively.
Table 1.3.
The scheme for issue of forecast
Forecast
Type of weather bulletin Time of issue Time of Observation
Centre
NWFC All India Daily Weather Bulletin (i)Around 1300Hrs IST (i) based on 00Z
(i) Mid Day ( Main Bulletin ) (ii)Around 1630Hrs IST and 03Z Observations
(ii) Evening (Update Bulletin) (iii)Around 2000Hrs IST (ii) based on 06Z
(iii) Night (Update Bulletin) (iv)Around 0800Hrs IST and 09Z
(iv) Morning (Update Bulletin) of the next day Observations
(iii) based on 12Z
Observation
(iv) based on 00Z
Observation
RWFC a)Regional weather Bulletin a)
(i) Mid Day ( Main Bulletin ) (i)Around 1300Hrs IST (i) based on 00Z and 03Z
(iii) Night (Update Bulletin) (ii)Around 2000 Hrs ISTObservations
b) (ii) based on 12Z
b) District level forecast Bulletin (i)Around 1400Hrs IST Observations
i) Mid Day ( Main forecast ) based on 00Z and 03Z
observations and
Mid day bulletin
SWFC a)State daily weather Bulletin a) (i)based on 00Z and 03Z
(i) Mid Day ( Main Bulletin ) (i)Around 1300Hrs IST observations
(ii) Night (Update Bulletin) (ii)Around 2000Hrs IST (ii)based on 12Z observations
b) District level forecast Bulletin b) (i)based on 00Z and 03Z
Mid Day ( Main forecast ) (i)Around 1400Hrs IST observations and Mid day
bulletin
Note : The forecast from RWFC/SWFC will be updated as and when required other than the scheduled
timings mentioned above in case of necessity and the same needs to be communicated to all concerned
and to be updated in the website also.
1.6. Forecast Generation
Forecasting services is a three tier system with NWFC New Delhi at the headquarters, RWFC at the regional level and
SWFC at the state level. Thus forecast for a meteorological subdivision would be issued by at least three centres. e.g.,
For Telengana subdivision, forecasts will be issued by SWFC Hyderabad, RWFC Chennai and NWFC New Delhi. Such
forecasts originating from different centres should be consistent in their contents and should not differ from centre to
centre.
8
(i) To ensure consistency in the forecasts issued from different centres, the operational forecasters of NWFC, RWFC
and SWFC carryout discussion about the ongoing and impending weather scenario in detail through Video Conference
or teleconference between 1030 hrs to 1200 hrs IST on daily basis before the issue of main bulletin (Mid Day bulletin)
and based upon the final decision all centres will issue the forecast and warnings as per the forecast scheme of each
centre.
(ii) While updated bulletins are issued, In case of any significant change required to be made for any area, the same
is carried out after telephonic discussion with the concerned RWFC/SWFC. For example, if SWFC Bhubaneswar wants
Heavy rainfall warning is to be included in Night Bulletin then the same is incorporated after discussing with NWFC,
New Delhi and RWFC Kolkata so that the corresponding modifications are carried out in the bulletins issued from that
centres also. Any centre can suggest incorporation of modifications in the updated bulletins and the same is finalised
after discussing and taking the consent from all concerned in the national, regional and state levels.
1.7. Terminology used in Forecasts
Description of spatial distribution of rainfall or its intensity over any subdivision/district for any day is based on the
24 hr accumulated rainfall ending at 0830 hrs IST of that day. Similar criteria are applicable for the forecasted rainfall
also, viz., the forecasted spatial distribution and intensity of rainfall for Day 1 is based on the rainfall expected from
0830 hrs IST of that day to 0830 hrs IST of the next day.
1.7.1. Spatial distribution of Rainfall
For description of the spatial distribution of rainfall in observed as well as forecasted weather, categories used are
given in Table 1.4.
Table 1.4.
Terminology for Spatial Distribution of rainfall
Spatial Distribution Descriptive term

Criteria for observed/forecastweather
of Rainfall used
Dry Dry No station reported/expecting rainfall
Isolated One or two Places ≤25% of stations get/expected to get rainfall
Scattered At a few Places (26–50)% of stations get/expected to get rainfall
Fairly Widespread At many Places (51–75)% of stations get/expected to get rainfall
Wide spread At most places (76–100)% of stations get/expected to get rainfall
Note : Only daily rainfall of at least 2.5mm is taken into consideration in the monsoon months.
During non-monsoon period, rainfall less than 2.5 mm also may be considered for distribution /
verification as per existing practice. Rainfall realised in the category of trace, viz., less than 2.5
mm in monsoon season and less than 0.1 mm in other seasons in a subdivision, the weather for
that sub division will be described as mainly dry.
1.7.2. Intensity of 24-hour Accumulated rainfall
For the description of intensity of 24-hour accumulated rainfall, the criteria used are given in Table 1.5.
9
Table 1.5.
Terminology for intensity of 24 hour accumulated rainfall
S. No. Terminology Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (cm) Percentile

1. Very light rainfall Trace -2.4
2. Light rainfall 2.5-15.5 Upto 1 Upto 65
3. Moderate rainfall 15.6-64.4 2-6 65-95
4. Heavy Rainfall 64.5- 115.5 7-11 95-99
5. Very Heavy Rainfall 115.6-204.4 12-20 99.0-99.9
6. Extremely heavy Greater than or 21 cm or >99.9
rainfall equal more
to 204.5 mm
7. Exceptionally Heavy Rainfall When the rainfall observed is a value near about
the highest recorded rainfall at or near the station
for the month or the season. However, this term
will be used only when the actual rainfall amount
exceeds 12 cm
1.7.3. Intensity of 24-hour Accumulated snowfall
For the description of intensity of 24-hour accumulated snowfall, the criteria used are given in Table 1.6.
Table 1.6
Terminology for intensity of 24 hour accumulated snowfall
Snowfall depth
S. No. Terminology Percentile
in cm
th
1. Light Snowfall 10.4 cm or less Less than 50 Percentile
2. Moderate Snowfall 10.5-64.4 cm 50-95
3. Heavy Snowfall 64.5- 115.5 cm 95-99
4. Very Heavy Snowfall 115.6-204.4 cm 99.0-99.9
5. Extremely heavy Snowfall 204.5 cm or more >99.9
Note : For the description of spatial distribution of weather events other than rainfall, viz., heat
wave, cold wave, fog, thunderstorms etc., the criteria given in Table 1.4 itself are used. The
criteria used for the description of intensity of those weather events are separately dealt in the
Chapters related to them.
1.7.4. Probability of Occurrence of the Weather event
In order to mention the probability of occurrence of the expected weather, the terminology given in Table 1.7 is used.
10
Table 1.7
Terminology for probability of occurrence of weather event
Term Probability of occurrence

Unlikely Less than 25%
Likely 25% to 50%
Very likely 50% to 75 %
Most likely more than 75%
1.7.5. Description of Temperature departure from normal
Terminology used for description of maximum and minimum temperature departures from normal in weather bulletin
are given in Table 1.8.
Table 1.8
Terminology for Temperature departure from normal
Terminology Departures from normal

O
Markedly below normal - 5.0 C or less
O O
Appreciably below normal - 3.1 C to –5.0 C
O O
Below normal -1.6 C to -3.0 C
O O
Normal - 1.5 C to 1.5 C
O O
Above normal 1.6 C to 3.0 C
O O
Appreciably above normal 3.1 C to 5.0 C
O
Markedly above normal 5.0 C or more
1.7.6. Description of temperature tendency
Terminology used for description of maximum and minimum temperature tendency (change in twenty four hours) in
weather Bulletin is given in Table 1.9.
Table 1.9
Terminolgy for temperature tendency
Terminology Change in twenty four hours

O
Marked fall - 4.1 C or less
O O
Appreciable fall - 2.1 C to – 4.0 C
O O
No Large Change - 2.0 C to + 2.0 C
O O
Appreciable rise 2.1 C to 4. 0 C
O
Marked rise 4.1 C or more
1.7.7. Symbols for Severe weather Representation
The symbols used for representing the severe weather phenomena in weather warnings are given in Table 1.10.
11
Table 1.10
Symbols for severe weather representation in warnings
S. No. Weather Type Symbol
1. Heavy Rain
2. Heavy Snow
3. Thunderstorm
4. Dust storm
5. Strong Wind
6. Visibility
7. Cyclone
8. Squall/Hail
9. Frost
10. Cold Wave
11. Heat Wave
12. Sea State
1.7.8. Colour code for Weather warnings
The following colour codes are used in weather warnings for bringing out the severity of the weather phenomena
expected. This mainly serves as a signal for the disaster management authority about the impact of the weather
expected so as to keep them ready for necessary action related to disaster risk reduction.
WARNING ( TAKE ACTION)

ALERT (BE PREPARED)
WATCH (BE UPDATED)
NO WARNING (NO ACTION)
In order to decide upon the colour to be assigned to a given weather warning situation under the 5-day forecast
scheme, the matrix given in Figure 1.4. is followed, giving thrust on the probability of occurrence of the event as well
as its impact assessment.
12
Figure 1.4. Matrix for Decision of Colour Code for Warning
The probability of occurrence of severe weather for Day1 to Day5 may be decided based upon the inference derived
from the synoptic analysis of Observations, analysis of model forecasts (including probabilistic outputs) and diagnostic
products available with respect to different weather phenomena. For impact assessment, the conceptual model of the
weather associated with the disaster events from past and the impact caused by them along with the topography,
land-use pattern, socio-economic factors and livelihood of the region needs to be taken into consideration.
The colour code for impact based warning for a district or subdivision depends upon many factors including
(i) meteorological factors (ii) hydrological factors (iii) geophysical factors etc. which may interact with each other to
determine the impact and risk. Hence the forecaster will decide the impact considering all these factors and colour
code for the warning will be decided accordingly.
For more details on Impact Based Forecasting, Chapter on Heavy Rainfall Warning may be referred to.
1.8. District level forecasts
(i) District level forecast and warning shall be issued by all SWFC and RWFC for their area of responsibility. The
validity period of district level forecast will be five days with an outlook of subsequent two days.
(ii) The probability of occurrence of heavy rainfall alongwith qualitative description regarding the intensity of rainfall
expected viz. heavy rainfall, very heavy rainfall etc. are mentioned for each district as and when required in each
forecast and updates. Rainfall intensity less than that of heavy rainfall, viz., Light to moderate rainfall etc. should also
be given as and when necessary in probabilistic terms.
(iii) A district is a compact area hence spatial distribution of individual district may be different from the spatial
distribution of cluster of districts comprising a sub division. For example, if scattered distribution is predicted for a
subdivision, some of the districts of that subdivision can have dry weather also.
(iv) Appropriate colour code (Green, Yellow, Orange, and Red) for warning is to be assigned for each district taking
into consideration of the probability of occurrence of severe weather and its impact for all the five days.
The criteria of colour coding of heavy rainfall warning at district level are given in Table 1.11 for each day of the
forecast, valid up to five days.
13
Table 1.11
Colour coding criteria for heavy rainfall warning in the district level
Category Colour Coding
Isolated extremely heavy rainfall Red
Scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall Red
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall Orange for Day 1 and Day 2 and Red
(consecutively for 3 days) for Day 3
scattered heavy rainfall/Isolated heavy Yellow

rainfall
If it is already flood situation and heavy Orange/Red

rainfall is expected
No heavy rainfall Green
(v) The criteria given above are of general nature. Considering the location, period of occurrence of heavy rainfall
expected and the ongoing flood scenario if any, the impact may be different. Hence, MCs/RMCsto decide the colour
code for district level warnings accordingly.
(vi) Even though colour code criteria used by all the centres are same, it is not necessary that the colour code used
for subdivisional warning will be same as the colour code used for any district in that subdivision. Thus, the colour
code used by NWFC for the subdivision as a whole may be yellow but the colour code used by RWFC/SWFC for any
district within that subdivision can be orange or red as per the weather situation expected and its impact.
1.9. City/Local Forecast
Local Forecasts for the Capital and other cities/towns are very important for management of urban activities. In
addition to this, location specific forecasts are provided also for important functions like Independence Day, VVIP
movements and tourism requirements etc.
(i) Location specific city forecasts/tourism forecasts are to be issued by RWFC/SWFC for the main cities under their
area of jurisdiction and it will consists of local weather report and forecast for seven days.
(ii) In case of VVIP movements, depending upon the location for which forecast is required, the concerned
RWFC/SWFC prepares the forecasts and send it to NWFC for approval and after verification of the same and
incorporating modifications needed if any, the final forecast is issued from NWFC.
(iii) The local weather report includes the maximum and minimum temperature realized and their departure from
normal, twenty four hours accumulated rainfall ending at 0830 hrs IST of the day, relative humidity recorded in the
morning and evening and time of sunrise, sunset, moon rise and moon set for the location.
(iv) The forecast part includes the expected maximum and minimum temperature and weather for the seven days. If
no weather is expected for a particular day, then expected sky condition will be given instead.
(v) The local forecast is issued four times a day, around 0200 hrs, 0800 hrs, 1400 hrs and 2000 hrs IST respectively,
(vi) The categories used in local forecast for expected rainfall characteristics are given in Table 1.12 below.
14
Table 1.12
Categories of rainfall in Local forecasts
Weather phenomena Description
One or two spells of Rain During 24 hour period, rainfall occurring with a frequency of
one or two spells.
A few spells of rain During 24 hrs period, rainfall occurring with a frequency
Of more than two spells but with well defined dry spells in
between.
Intermittent rain During 24 hrs period, rainfall occurring with a frequency more
than that defined in “A Few Spells” but is discontinuous and
without presenting the character of a
Shower
Continuous rain Rain occurring almost throughout the 24-hour period.
Drizzle Liquid precipitation in the form of water drops of very small

size (by convention, with radius of water drops
between about 100 and 500 µm)
Shower Liquid precipitation in the form of water drops, with radius of

water drops more than 2500 µm. Showers are in general
characterized by short duration with fluctuating intensity.
(vi) The categories used for describing the sky conditions in local forecast are given in Table 1.13. The sky condition is
reported in terms of Octa wherein the sky is divided into eight equal parts.
Table 1.13
Categories for Sky condition in Local Forecast
Sky condition Portion of sky covered with clouds (in Octa)

Clear sky 0
Mainly clear sky 1-2
Partly cloudy sky 3-4
Generally cloudy sky 5-7
Cloudy sky >7
Here the terminology used in Local Forecasts for rainfall and sky conditions are discussed. When there are possibilities
of occurrence of severe weather elements like thunderstorms, fog, heatwave, cold wave etc. affecting the
city/location, the same are to be mentioned in the local forecast.
1.10. Forecasting Organisational Structure
To cater to the needs of forecasting activities in the national, regional and state levels, the General Forecasting system
preferably have the following organizational structure with respect to NWFC in the national level with Weather
Central, IMD, Pune as its standby, RWFC in the regional level and SWFC in the state level.
15
1.10.1. National Level
• General Forecasting and Public Weather Service (PWS) Division
a. General Weather Forecasting Unit

b. Public Weather Services Unit
c. Weather Summary Unit
d. Unit dealing with Parliament Questions/RTI/Grievances
• Cyclone Warning Division

• MarineWeather Service Division
• Nowcast Division
• Mountain Meteorology Division
• Satellite Application Division
All these divisions of NWFC are shown schematically in Figure.1.5 below.
General Weather Forecasting

and
Public Weather Services Division
Marine Weather Nowcast

Services Division Division
NWFC
(National Weather Forecasting
Centre)
Satellite Application Mountain Meteorology

Division Division
Dissemination of observations and forecast

information to State authorities, public and
media in the local level Cyclone Warning
Division
Fig. 1.5. Organisational Structure of National Weather Forecasting Centre
1.10.2. Weather Central, IMD, Pune
Weather Central, Pune will have the following Cells.
• Standby Operational Forecast Cell for NWFC operations to manage the operational work in the event of any
major contingency at NWFC.
• Documentation Cell for preparation of IDWR, WWR, Monthly and Seasonal Reports.
• Verification Cell for monitoring of procedures followed by all operational offices and verification of forecasts
(in collaboration with NWFC).
• Communication Cell.
16
The organisational structure of Weather Central, Pune is shown in Figure 1.6.
Documentation Cell Verification Cell
Weather Central,
Pune
Standby Operation
Communication Cell Cell for NWFC
Fig. 1.6. Organisational Structure of Weather Central Office, Pune
1.10.3. State level/Regional level
The RWFC/SWFC will have following cells:
• General Forecasting / Nowcasting Cell

• PWS Cell
• Documentation Cell
• DRMS Cell
• Communication Cell
• Agromet Service Cell
• Aviation Co-ordination Cell
• FMO’s Co-ordination Cell
The organisational structure of RWFC/SWFC is shown in Fig.1.7.
General Aviation co-ordination cell

Forecast/Nowcast Cell
Communication Cell FMO co-ordination cell

Regional Weather
Forecasting/
State Weather
Documentation Cell Agromet Service Cell
Forecasting Centers
PWS Cell DRMS Cell
Fig. 1.7. Organisational Structure of Regional/State Weather Forecasting Centres
17
1.10.4. Meteorological Offices
The Meteorological Offices will have the organisational structure for the activities related to their responsibilities
shown in Fig. 1.8.
• Regular weather Observations and their communication
• Survey and reporting of adverse weather
• Dissemination of observations and forecast informations to local authorities, public and media
• Maintenance of surface observatory/AWS/ARG
• Preparation of Station climatology
Dissemination of observations and forecast

information to State authorities, public and
media in the local level Cyclone Warning
Division
Preparation of Adverse
Meteorological
station Weather
Offices related survey
Climatology
and its
reporting
Maintenance
of Surface Reporting &
observatory / communication
AWS/ARG of Weather
Fig. 1.8. Organisational Structure of Met Offices
1.11. Mandate of Different Forecasting Centres
1.11.1. NWFC
(A) General forecasting cell
(i) This cell will monitor the weather situation over the country.
(ii) It will issue sub-divisional wise short and medium range forecasts for next five days and outlook for subsequent
two days in consultation with RWFCs and SWFCs.
(iii) It will issue All India weather forecasts 4 times a day as per forecast scheme.
(iv) It will issue forecast related to sports, VVIP movements, Independence /Republic day functions etc. with copies
endorsed to concerned SWFC and RWFCs .
(v) It will monitor Global Weather that would have implications on Indian weather.
(vi) This cell will function round the clock.

18
(B) Cyclone Warning and Marine Cell
(a) Marine cell will be responsible for the issue of
(i) GMDSS Bulletin for area VIII (N)
(ii) Fleet Forecast
(iii) Fishermen warning in text as well as pictorial format for coastal as well as high sea areas of North Indian
Ocean on daily basis
(iv) All weather related enquiries pertaining to high sea areas will be handled by the marine cell in co-ordination
with ACWCs/CWCs.
(b) Cyclone Warning Cell will issue Tropical Weather Outlook for North Indian Ocean on daily basis and extended
range outlook for cyclogenesis in North Indian Ocean on weekly basis.
(c) Cyclone warning cell will be functioning round the clock once a low pressure system over the North Indian Ocean
concentrates into a depression.
(d) Cyclone Warning cell shall continue to follow the existing practices for monitoring and forecast as per the latest
cyclone manual.
(C) Nowcasting cell
(i) This cell would monitor and forecast severe weather events with shorter life span of a few hours such as:
Thunderstorm, Thunder squall, Tornado, Hail storm, Lightning, Dust storm, Fog, Heavy spells of rain etc.
(ii) Nowcast guidance bulletin related to severe weather events is issued by the Nowcasting cell after the daily
discussion through video conference and the same is updated as and when required.
(iii) The nowcasting cell continuously monitors the nowcasts being issued from the RWFCs/SWFCs and carryout the
scrutinisation of the verification of the nowcasts issued from these centres.
(iv) This cell prepares thunderstorm reports on yearly basis.
(D) PWS Cell
(i) This cell will provide end user services at national level.
(ii) PWS unit will furnish inputs for providing material to media and to stake holders
(iii) This cell will prepare multi hazard maps with colour code for the warnings issued.
(iv) This cell will take care of weather product generation and dissemination of all types of bulletins/ warnings to
different State and Central Government users, All India Radio, Television channels including Door Darshan, Registered
Users and the electronic and print media.
(v) It will carry out periodic website updating, dissemination of weather information through different social media
viz., Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp etc.
(vi) This cell will function round the clock.
(E) Satellite Application Unit
(i) The SATMET Application Unit is collocated with NWFC and function round the clock to facilitate the
interpretation of satellite images and data required for forecasting.
19
(ii) The satellite application cell monitors and interprets the satellite imageries. This cell issues satellite bulletins for
use by various users. The satellite bulletins are issued at three hourly intervals on regular basis and at hourly/half
hourly interval during the period of intense Low pressure systems like cyclones.
All the above cells of NWFC will function under a Senior Scientist as overall in charge & all above duties are to be
carried out under the guidance and approval of overall In charge.
1.11.2. Weather Central, Pune
(i) The WC, Pune will generate the daily forecast in the same format as it is done by NWFC, Delhi on All India level in
the subdivisional scale, but will not issue it to the users.
In the event of a major contingency at NWFC, Delhi (HQ Office) resulting into disruption of operational services for a
few days, Weather Central Pune will immediately take over all the operational responsibilities of NWFC. All the work
stations available at Weather Central, Pune and at the Meteorological Training institute at Pune will be used, as
required, to support the essential operational services.
When normal conditions are restored at NWFC New Delhi, regular operational activities will be shifted from Weather
Central, Pune to NWFC, New Delhi.
(ii) This centre also provides technical guidance in operational matters and carry out preparation of related manuals,
guides etc. in collaboration with NWFC.
(iii) WC Pune is also responsible for documentation and preservations of IDWR, WWR and seasonal weather
summaries etc.
(iv) WC Pune would prepare and disseminate local forecast for Pune and neighbourhood, four times a day.
(v) WC Pune carryout digitization of analysed weather charts and their preservation.
(vi) WC Pune also carries out forecast verification and its documentation for some of the forecasts issued by
forecasting centres.
1.11.3. RWFC /SWFC
(A) General forecasting Cell
(i) Round the clock weather monitoring for the area of responsibility.
(ii) Preparation and issue of Daily Weather Report (DWR) in district level with forecast and warning for five days
(120hrs) and outlook for subsequent 2 days. SWFC will prepare the same for the concerned state whereas RWFC will
prepare the same for the state in which it is located.
(iii) Forecasting cell of RWFC will prepare the DWR in subdivision/sectors of subdivision level also for its area of
responsibility.
(iv) SWFC will prepare and issue of Local Forecast /City Forecast and its update in every 6 hours for the stations of
the concerned state whereas RWFC will prepare the same for the stations of the state in which it is located.
(v) SWFC/RWFC will prepare and issue all user specific bulletins viz., bulletin for All India Radio, Door Darshan, Press,
State disaster management authorities etc related to weather information and warnings for the state concerned.
(vi) Preparation of draft inputs for VVIP movements, special events etc. and its dissemination to NWFC for its
finalisation and issue will also be carried out by SWFC/RWFC as per their area of responsibility.
(vii) Preparation and issue of Fishermen Warning 4 times a day for the area of responsibility (only by those
RWFC/SWFC which functions also as ACWC/CWC respectively).
20
(viii) Preparation and issue of Routine Coastal bulletin, Sea area bulletin, Port warning for the concerned area of
responsibility (only by those RWFC/SWFC which function also as ACWC/CWC respectively). Thus RWFC (ACWC)
Kolkata will issue Sea area bulletin for Bay of Bengal and RWFC(ACWC) Mumbai will issue Sea area bulletin for Arabian
Sea. Similarly SWFC (CWC) Thiruvananthapuram will issue Coastal bulletin for Kerala-Karnataka coasts.
(ix) Preparation and issue of Cyclone related bulletins, viz., Alert/Warning, Port and Fisheries bulletins, and Coastal
bulletins during Cyclone / Depression period as per SOP of cyclone(only by those RWFC/SWFC which functions also as
ACWC/CWC).
(x) This cell will also do the monitoring of severe weather developments over its area of responsibility and issue
nowcasts as and when required as per the nowcast guidance bulletin from now casting Cell of NWFC.
Note : This cell would be headed by a Senior Scientist. It will always be manned by a Class I officer or a trained
forecaster and will function round the clock.
(B) Agro Advisory Service Unit
(i) Preparation and issue of value added district level forecast and its issue to AMFUs/DAMUs two times a week; on
Tuesdays and Fridays so as to enable them to issue agromet advisories to the farmers.
(ii) This unit issue quantitative district wise forecast for five parameters, viz., rainfall, maximum & minimum
temperature, maximum & minimum relative humidity, cloudiness, wind speed and wind direction.
(iii) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique is used to generate district level forecast in terms of quantitative
numbers and the final forecast is issued after carrying out value addition.
(iv) This forecast would be issued only once per day (at about 1200 hrs IST) on both the days. The forecaster can
make use of medium range forecast products generated by IMD, NCMRWF, ECMWF and also the district rainfall
climatology to do value addition.
(D) Communication cell
(i) This cell would monitor and ensure the flow of observational data and forecast products between the forecasting
centres at the national, regional and state level and also with Weather Central, Pune for the smooth functioning of
operational work.
(ii) This cell will also be responsible for collection and transmission of data from all observatories for the concerned
area of Jurisdiction.
(E) Daily Rainfall Monitoring Scheme (DRMS) Cell
This cell will do collection of all rainfall data from concerned area/state, process and analyse the data and prepare
rainfall statistics for the area of responsibility in both tabular and map form.
(F) FMO Coordination
In RWFC New Delhi and RWFC Gauhati and MCs at Ahmedabad, Bhubanaeshwar, Hyderabad, Lucknow, Patna,
Srinagar and Bangalore FMOs are collocated with the forecasting centre and hence the same unit will do the co-
ordination work with Central Water Commission (CWC) and issue Quantitative precipitation forecast for concerned
basins under their area of responsibility. When the FMOs are in a different location, a coordination cell shall work
within the concerned RWFC/SWFC under which the FMO is situated.
(G) Aviation Coordination
This cell within RWFC/SWFC will monitor/co-ordinate the operational forecast activities of all the aviation
meteorological offices located within the jurisdiction of concerned RWFC/SWFC.
21
A Senior Scientist preferably in the rank of Scientist E/D will function as the chief forecaster in RWFC and SWFC. The
daily video conference will be attended and the main weather bulletin (mid day bulletin) will be issued by the chief
forecaster or in his absence by the batch In charge in consultation with the chief forecaster. The updated weather
bulletin will be issued by the batch In charge in consultation with the chief forecaster.
All the above cells will function under the Head of RMCs/MCs as overall in charge and all the decisions related to
operational activities are to be carried out with the approval of overall In charge.
1.11.4. Meteorological Offices (Observatories)
(i) The Meteorological offices should be the integral components of the forecast organisation even though they do
not perform any forecast related activities.
(ii) They will collect and provide the current observations to all concerned to support forecast activities. Additional
(special) observations needs to taken and reported to the concerned as and when required during severe weather
phenomena like cyclone affecting the area.
(iii) Field survey will be conducted by the staff in case of adverse weather conditions prevailing in their region as and
when required or on instruction from RWFC/SWFC. Any adverse weather conditions will be reported promptly to
SWFC/RWFC and a report based on field survey will also be submitted via email followed by hard copy.
22
Appendix I
All India Multi Hazard Warning Bulletin issued by NWFC
23
24
Appendix II
District Level Forecast issued from SWFC Bhubaneshwar
25
26
Appendix III
District Level Warning issued from SWFC Bhubaneshwar
27
28
Satellite Application in Weather Forecasting
Chapter 2
2.1. Introduction
Satellite Meteorology Division started functioning in India Meteorological Department since early 70’s. From 1972 to
1982, IMD used to receive the Satellite imageries of NOAA and NASA meteorological satellites through Secondary Data
Utilization Centre (SDUC) and images were printed on photographic paper for using in weather forecasting. Advances
in satellite technology have led to improved observational capabilities. The first generation of the Indian National
Satellite (INSAT) programme started in 1982, is a series of multipurpose geo-stationary satellites by ISRO to meet
requirement of the telecommunications, broadcasting, meteorology, and search and rescue operations. In 1983 IMD
has established its first satellite data receiving and processing system to receive & process the data from INSAT-1B, as
a full-fledged satellite Meteorological Division for providing satellite Metrological services to the nation. Since then,
IMD is providing the Meteorological Satellite Services to the Forecasters using the data from Meteorological payloads
of INSAT-1, INSAT-2, and INSAT-3 series satellites. During both INSAT-1 and INSAT-2 series satellites, the temporal
resolution of scan acquisitions was on 3 hourly basis & satellites Imageries were developed on a photographic sheet
through photographic process till 1992 and later on Imageries were printed on photographic sheets through thermal
Kodak printers. IMD had started dissemination of the satellite imageries through IMD website from 1996. The division
has made a steady progress in satellite data reception and generation of several new products which are quite useful
in weather forecasting and the division now plays an important role in supporting weather forecasting. Now days, the
satellite technology is of great use in meteorology and plays a very significant role in the improvement of weather
forecasting. At present IMD is using Indian Meteorological Geostationary satellites (INSAT-3D&INSAT-3DR), Polar
Satellite (Scatterometer Satellite-1 (SCATSat-1), Oceansat-2 & Mega-Tropiques) and International Geostationary
Meteorological Satellites (METEOSAT-8 of EUMETSat, Himawari-8 of JMA) data in near real time for weather
forecasting through terrestrial EUMETCast system.
INSAT-3D and INSAT-3DR are dedicated meteorological geostationary satellites and located at 82-degree and 74-
degree East longitude respectively. INSAT-3D& 3DR carries a multi spectral six channel Imager, 19 channel Sounder,
Data Relay Transponder and Search& Rescue Transponder payloads.
The Imager payload of INSAT-3D and INSAT-3DR is being used in staggered mode so that effectively 15 minutes
temporal resolution is achieved. Sounder payloads of INSAT-3D & INSAT-3DR are used in integrated manner so that
INDIAN land region sector data become available on hourly basis and Indian Ocean region data become available on
one and half hourly basis either from INSAT-3D or INSAT-3DR satellite.
Recently, IMD has established Multi-Mission Meteorological Data Receiving and Processing System (MMDRPS) for
INSAT-3D, INSAT-3DR and INSAT-3DS satellites through a MoU with M/s Antrix Corporation Ltd, ISRO and existing
IMDPS system is phasing-out. Dedicated New Earth stations have been setup under MMDRPS [Multi-Mission
Meteorological Data Reception and Processing System] Project, which have the capability to receive the data from
INSAT-3D, INSAT-3DR and upcoming INSAT-3DS satellite. MMDRPS systems consist of advance & latest state of art
servers capable to process the complete set of data within 7 minutes after completion of scanning along with the
storage capacity of order 2.0/2.0PB (Main/ Mirror) & 324TB SSD which will facilitate online sharing of processed data
for all Indian meteorological satellites to the registered users as per IMD data policy through Web based secured
satellite Data Supply System. All available past satellite datasets starting from 1983 will be kept in online mode in due
course of time.
2.1.1. INSAT-3D & 3DR Satellite
a. Six channel Imager

b. Nineteen channel Sounder
c. Data Relay Transponder(DRT)
d. Satellite aided Search and Rescue(S&SR) System
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(a) INSAT-3D/3DR-Imager
It is multi-spectral (optical radiometer) capable of generating the images of the earth in six wavelength bands
significant for meteorological observations, namely, visible, shortwave infrared, middle infrared, water vapor and two
bands in thermal infrared regions. The Imager generates images of the earth disk from geostationary altitude of
36,000 km every 26 minutes and provide information on various parameters, namely, outgoing long-wave radiation,
quantitative precipitation estimation, sea surface temperature, snow cover, cloud motion winds, etc.
The salient features of INAST-3D Imager are as follows:
1. Blackbody calibration sequence is modified as compared to VHRR of earlier satellites.
2. In the Fast Scan direction IFOVs are over sampled by 1.75 times.
3. Satellite is flip after every six months that is a biannual rotation of yaw by 180 degree has been introduced to
maintain proper cold patch temperature.
4. Two flexible mode of operation:
• Full frame mode scans 18-degree EW x18 degree NS covering the entire Earth disc in 26 minutes.
• Program mode covering 18 degree in EW direction NS coverage can be defined in terms

of number of lines to be scanned.
 INSAT-3DR Imager can also be operated in RAPID SCAN Mode
INSAT-3DR Imager can also be operated in RAPID SCAN Mode to monitor the severe weather events like Cyclone and
Thunder Storms, the IMAGER instruments have been built with the flexible scanning feature named as ‘Program
Mode’, where the number of scan lines over a given coverage region and the number of repetitions of thus selected
region could be programmed for scanning. In order to simplify and standardize the usage of this feature, the following
operational strategy has been worked out for Rapid scan:
INSAT-3DR will provide rapid Scans during severe weather conditions, while INSAT-3D will continue to provide Full
frame Mode Scan covering full globe. In rapid scan mode the globe is divided into 36 blocks in North-South directions
such that, each block covers 0.50 in N-S direction and consist of 40 scan lines.
One rapid scan covered up 240 no. of scan lines and took 4.7 minutes to complete it. MCF Hassan ISRO is intimated to
start the rapid scan whenever there is request from NWFC with following information :
 Start Block Number
 No. of blocks to cover and
 No. of repetitions
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The spectral band and products images of rapid scan mode can be assessed through the following link:
http://satellite.imd.gov.in/rapid/rapid_scan.htm
Imager Channel Specification
Ground
Channel no. Spectral Band Spectrum (μm) Resolution Purpose
(km)
1 Visible 0.55 – 0.75 1×1 Clouds, Surface features
2 SWIR 1.55 – 1.70 1×1 Snow, Ice and water phase in clouds
3 MIR 3.80 – 4.00 4×4 Clouds, Fog, Fire
4 WV 6.50 – 7.10 8×8 Upper-Troposphere Moisture
5 TIR1 10.2 – 11.3 4×4 Cloud top and surface temperature
6 TIR2 11.5 – 12.5 4×4 Lower-Troposphere Moisture
(b) INSAT-3D/3DR-Sounder
INSAT-3D/3DR carries a newly developed 19 channel sounder, which is the first such payload to be flown on an ISRO
satellite mission. The Sounder has eighteen narrow spectral channels in shortwave infrared, middle infrared and long
wave infrared regions and one channel in the visible region. The ground resolution at nadir is nominally 10 × 10 km for
all nineteen channels. Atmospheric Sounding System, provide vertical profiles of temperature 40 levels (surface to 70
km), Humidity 21 levels (surface to 15 km) and integrated ozone from surface to top of the atmosphere. The
specification of Sounder is as follows.
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Sounder Channel Specification
Central Wavelength
Detector Ch. No. Principal absorbing gas Purpose
(mm)
Long wave 1 14.67 CO2 Stratosphere temperature
2 14.32 CO2 Tropopause temperature
3 14.04 CO2 Upper-level temperature
4 13.64 CO2 Mid-level temperature
5 13.32 CO2 Low-level temperature
6 12.62 water vapor Total precipitable water
7 11.99 water vapor Surface temp., moisture
Mid wave 8 11.04 window Surface temperature
9 9.72 ozone Total ozone
10 7.44 water vapor Low-level moisture
11 7.03 water vapor Mid-level moisture
12 6.53 water vapor Upper-level moisture
Short wave 13 4.58 N2O Low-level temperature
14 4.53 N2O Mid-level temperature
15 4.46 CO2 Upper-level temperature
16 4.13 CO2 Boundary-level temp.
17 3.98 window Surface temperature
18 3.76 window Surface temp., moisture
Visible 19 0.695 visible Cloud
The Sounder measures radiance in eighteen IR and one visible channel simultaneously over an area of 10 km × 40 km
at nadir every 100 ms. Using a two-axes gimballed scan mirror, this footprint can be positioned anywhere in the FOR
[24º (E-W) × 19º (N-S)]. A scan program mode allows sequential sounding of a selected area with periodic space and
calibration looks. In this mode, a ‘frame' consisting of multiple ‘blocks' of the size 640 km × 640 km, can be sounded.
The selected frame can be placed anywhere within a FOR 24º (E-W) × 19º (N-S). As with the Imager, the Sounder
provides an adequate radiometric resolution for the intended science applications. The full frame mode of sounder
scan covered up 6400 Km × 6400 Km in size and will take 3 hours to complete this scan. However, it is operated over
Indian region as per IMD requirement. These profiles are available over Indian landmass on hourly basis and Indian
Ocean Region on one and half hourly basis. INSAT 3D Sounder has reached its end of life and accordingly a modified
rd
scan strategy of INSAT-3DR sounder payload has been implemented with effect from 23 September, 2020. Sounder
payload of INSAT-3DR is operated in such a way that INDIAN land region sector data is covered up twenty times and
Indian Ocean region data is covered up four times (04, 11, 16 & 23 UTC) on hourly basis.
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(c) Data Relay Transponder (DRT)
Data Relay Transponder (DRT) on-board INSAT-3D/3DR is used for receiving meteorological, hydrological and
oceanographic data from remote, uninhabited locations over the coverage area from Data Collection Platforms (DCPs)
like Automatic Weather Station (AWS), Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG) and Agro Met Stations (AMS). The data is relayed
back for down linking in extended C-Band.
(d) Satellite Aided Search and Rescue (SAS & R) Transponder
INSAT-3D/3DR is equipped with a Search and Rescue payload (operating in 406 MHz) that picks up and relays the alert
signals originating from the distress beacons of maritime, aviation and land-based users to the Indian Mission Control
Centre (INMCC) located at ISRO Telemetry, Tracking and Command Network (ISTRAC), Bangalore. The major users of
Satellite Aided Search and Rescue service in India are the Indian Coast Guard, Airports Authority of India (AAI),
Directorate General of Shipping, Defence Services and fishermen. The Indian service region includes a large part of the
Indian Ocean region covering India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Seychelles, Sri Lanka and Tanzania for
rendering distress alert services.
2.1.2 . Scatsat-1 Satellite
SCATSAT-1 is a continuity mission for Oceansat-2 Scatterometer payload to provide wind vector data products over
ocean for weather forecasting, cyclone detection and tracking services to the users. The satellite carries Ku-band
Scatterometer similar to the one flown onboard Oceansat-2. Scatsat-1 satellite was launched on 2016 ataltitude
720 km in polar sun synchronous orbit, with mission life of 5 years.
Specifications of Scatterometer Payload
Parameter Specifications
Altitude 720 km
Frequency 13.515 G Hz(Ku-band)
Wind speed range 3 to 30 m/s, accuracy of 1.8 m/s (rms) or 10%
Wind speed 0 – 360 degreesaccuracy of 20º rms
Scanning rate 20.5 rpm
Antenna Diameter 1 meter
Nominal PRF 193 Hz
Transmit pulse width 1.35 ms
Inner beam Outer beam
Polarisation HH VV
Swath 1400 km 1800 km
Footprint 27 km × 46 km 30 km × 70 km
Beam width in degrees 1.47 × 1.63 1.39 × 1.72
Wind vector cell size 50 km × 50 km grid and 25 km × 25 km grid
https://www.mosdac.gov.in/data/init.do?mode=initexecute
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2.1.3. EUMETCast
EUMETCast is a multi-service dissemination system based on multicast technology sustained by EUMETSAT. IMD has
established a dedicated terrestrial EUMETCast system at NCMWRF Noida through a MoU with EUMETSAT to receive
the Geostationary and Polar meteorological satellites data for assimilating in NWP models and Weather
forecasting.
2.1.3.1. METEOSAT-8 Satellite
Meteosat-8 is a Meteosat Second Generation (MSG)spin-stabilized Geostationary Meteorological satellite located at

41.5°E and consist of 12 spectral channels with capability to performed ‘Full-Earth Scan’ in 15 minutes. The scan
region for Full-Earth scanning is covered up the area from approximately 40°W to 120°E i.e., it cover up the full
European continent, Africa and central Asia. It carried the 12-channel imager, known as the spinning enhanced visible
and infrared imager (SEVIRI). It also provides for better retrieval of wind fields which are obtained from the tracking
of clouds, water vapour and ozone features.
Specification of SEVIRI payload
Spectral Characteristics of Spectral Band (µm)

Channel
Band Main observational application
No. cen min max
(µm)
1 VIS0.6 0.635 0.56 0.71 Surface, clouds, wind fields
2 VIS0.8 0.81 0.74 0.88 Surface, clouds, wind fields
3 NIR1.6 1.64 1.50 1.78 Surface, cloud phase
4 IR3.9 3.90 3.48 4.36 Surface, clouds, wind fields
Water vapor, high level clouds,

5 WV6.2 6.25 5.35 7.15
atmospheric instability
Water vapor, atmospheric

6 WV7.3 7.35 6.85 7.85
instability
Surface, clouds, atmospheric

7 IR8.7 8.70 8.30 9.1
instability
8 IR9.7 9.66 9.38 9.94 Ozone
Surface, clouds, wind fields,

9 IR10.8 10.80 9.80 11.80
atmospheric instability
Surface, clouds, atmospheric

10 IR12.0 12.00 11.00 13.00
instability
Cirrus cloud height, atmospheric

11 IR13.4 13.40 12.40 14.40
instability
12 HRV Broadband (about 0.4 – 1.1 µm) Surface, clouds
2.1.3.2. Himawari Satellite

Himawari-8 is a Geostationary Meteorological satellite located at 140°E longitude of JMA with capability to performed
‘Full-Earth Scan’ in 10 minutes. The scan region for Full-Earth scanning is covered up the area of the East Asia and
Western Pacific. It carried the 16-channel imager, known as the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) for multi-purpose
imagery for weather watch, NWP utilization and environment monitoring and wind derivation by tracking clouds and
water vapour features.
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Specification of AHI payload
Central wavelength Bandwidth Resolution at s.s.p.

455 nm 50 nm 1.0 km
510 nm 20 nm 1.0 km
645 nm 30 nm 0.5 km
860 nm 20 nm 1.0 km
1610 nm 20 nm 2.0 km
2260 nm 20 nm 2.0 km
3.85 µm 0.22 µm 2.0 km
6.25 µm 0.37 µm 2.0 km
6.95 µm 0.12 µm 2.0 km
7.35 µm 0.17 µm 2.0 km
8.60 µm 0.32 µm 2.0 km
9.63 µm 0.18 µm 2.0 km
10.45 µm 0.30 µm 2.0 km
11.20 µm 0.20 µm 2.0 km
12.35 µm 0.30 µm 2.0 km
13.30 µm 0.20 µm 2.0 km
2.1.4. GNSS
IMD has set up a countrywide network of 25 nos. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations for “Earth and
Atmospheric studies” to drive integrated precipitable water vapour (IPWV) in real time. The IPWV data is being used
for now casting, monsoon studies, thunderstorms observation, and climate research and assimilated in NWP models
to improve the accuracy of weather forecasting. Unlike Radar, GNSS covers 20 to 30 KM radius.
A dedicated website has been developed to access IPWV data of 25 GNSS site in real time
(http://gnss.imd.gov.in/TrimblePivotWeb/MemberPages/AtmosphericConditions/IpwvMap.aspx)
Graphical user Interface was also provided to visualize 15 minutes, hourly, daily, weekly and monthly IPWV data along
with Meteorological parameters (Pressure, Temperature and Relative Humidity) and minimum and maximum values
of IPWV etc.
2.1.5. Visualization of surface Lighting network Data over satellite images
IITM Pune and IAF have set up lighting network across the country. IITM Pune collect the data at frequency of
2-minutes interval and IAF every 15 minutes and provide this lighting data to IMD in real time basis. The merged
product of lightning and satellite-based cloud with INSAT-3D data product is generated at real-time basis with half an
hour animation. The animation, lightning data is divided into the 3 different time categories 10, 20 and 30 minutes in
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different colours and it is updated every 15-minutes.The time gap between satellite and lightning data will be around
1 hours. This is due to the satellite scan strategy. The timing of 10, 20 and 30 minutes have been considered from the
lightning data received and shown in the image. For example, in the image shown below, Last 10 minutes = 0959 UTC
to 0949 UTC, Last 20 minutes = 0949 UTC to 0939 UTC and Last 30 minutes = 0939 UTC to 0929 UTC, observation of
lightning are merged with INSAT-3D imagery of 0900 UTC. The points are lightning flashes/strikes (cloud-to-ground)
which is being generated by the ground networks. These flashes/strikes are also superimposing on INSAT-3D cloud top
temperature. User can access this data through a dedicated link on IMD website:
http://internal.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/lightning/ https://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/ts_prediction_system/index.php
2.2. Cloud Imageries
2.2.1. Cloud Imagery of INSAT-3D & INSAT-3DR IMAGER
IMD generating different type cloud imageries of different domain using INSAT-3D& 3DR imager data for issuing
weather forecast as one input along with other observation inputs. The different spectral band images are generated
using the grey count /digital numbers values transmitted by the sensor of different locations of scan areas. The values
of grey count/ digital number are lies between (0 to 1023) depending upon the quantized energy level by the sensors.
In case of imager channel (MIR, TIR1, TIR2 & WV) images are generated by the inverting the grey count values (1024-
Actual grey count), So that cloud appears brighter similar to Visible & SWIR images. Normal Images are generated by
resampling of the grey count at coarser resolution and high-resolution images are generated at channel resolution.
The details of different type of images generated are giving below:
Normal Images
Resolution Format/ Size Frequency of

Globe/Sector Bands/parameter Domain
of Image of Image Updation
Standard Visible, SWIR, MWIR, WV, 13 × 13 Km 240-500 KB 70°S to 70°N, Every Fifteen
Full Disk TIR1, TIR2, IR-1 10°E to 150°E. minutes either
Brightness Temperature, from INSAT-3D
Day Microphysics/& or INSAT-3DR
Night Microphysics
Asiamer Visible, SWIR, MIR, WV, 6 × 6 Km 200-500 KB 10°S to 45°N, Every Fifteen
Sector TIR1, TIR2 & Day 40°E to 110°E. minutes either
Microphysics & Night from INSAT-3D
Microphysics RGB, IR-1 or INSAT-3DR
Brightness Temperature
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High Resolution Images with District boundaries
Format/ Size
Globe/ Resolution Frequency of
Bands/parameter of Image Domain
Sector of image Updation
(Jpeg)
Asiamer Visible,SWIR 1 x 1 Km 5MB 0°N to 40°N, Every Fifteen minutes
Sector 40°E to 110°E. either from INSAT-3D or
MIR, TIR1, TIR2, WV, IR-1-BT 4 x 4 Km 300-500 KB
INSAT-3DR
Blended Image,IR-1- BT &
Visible Sandwich Image
North Visible, SWIR 1 x 1 Km 1.2MB 15°N to 35°N, Every Fifteen minutes

East- 80°E to 100°E. either from INSAT-3D or
MIR, TIR1, Day Microphysics 4 x 4 Km 80-120KB
Sector INSAT-3DR
&Night Microphysics
North Visible, SWIR 1 x 1 Km 1.5 MB 18°N to 38°N, Every Fifteen minutes
West- 65°E to 85°E. either from INSAT-3D or
MIR, TIR1, Day Microphysics 4 x 4 Km 100KB
Sector INSAT-3DR
& Night Microphysics
South Visible, SWIR 1 x 1 Km 2MB 0°N to 30°N, Every Fifteen minutes
East- 74°E to 100°E. either from INSAT-3D or
MIR ,TIR1 4 x 4 Km 200KB
Sector INSAT-3DR
Day Microphysics &Night 213KB
Microphysics
South Visible, SWIR 1 x 1 Km 2.5MB 0°N to 30°N, Every Fifteen minutes
West- 40°E to 82°E. either from INSAT-3D or
MIR ,TIR1 4 x 4 Km 303KB
Sector INSAT-3DR
Day Microphysics & Night 4x4Km 275KB
Microphysics
Special Sector Images
Resolution of Format/ Size of

Globe/Sector Bands/parameter Domain Frequency of Updation
image Image
Aviation Visible 1 x 1Km 3MB 0°N to Every Fifteen minutes either
Sector 40°N, 55°E from INSAT-3D or INSAT-3DR
to 100°E Every Fifteen minutes either
TIR-1, Cloud top BT (< - 4 x 4 Km 150KB from INSAT-3D or INSAT-3DR
30 Deg. C)
Cyclone TIR-1BT using Cyclone 4 x 4 Km 300KB 0°N to
Enhancement enhancement LUT (BD 30°N, 40°E
SW Sector curve & IMD Curve) to 82°E
SE Sector 0° N to 30°
N, 74° E to
100° E
Pilgrimage Visible, SWIR 1 x 1 Km 750KB 0° N to 40° Every Fifteen minutes either
Sectors N, 70° E to from INSAT-3D or INSAT-3DR
85° E
TIR1 4 x 4 Km 330KB
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Visible Band
The Visible Band (0.55 – 0.75μm) is reflective type of band and hence its use is limited to day. Visible images obtained
during day time and depend on albedo of the target surface. Thus cloud, which is having high value of albedo than
land surface appears brighter and land appears darker in the visible image. These Images are used for monitoring
mesoscale weather features such as cloud cover, air mass boundaries, convergence zones, cyclone movement,
thunderstorms, fog, dust storms and snow coverage. Limited to daytime use.
Globe Asiamer Aviation Sect NE NW SE
SWQ Pilgrim Sector
Shortwave Infra-Red (SWIR)
The SWIR Band (1.55 – 1.70μm) is reflective type of band and hence its use is limited to day time only. Incident
radiation in SWIR, strongly absorbed by water, ice, snow and reflected by cloud, while in case of visible spectrum
these objects essentially transparent. Therefore, melting snow patches or lake, ice is seen bright in the visible image
while these appears dark in SWIR images and therefore SWIR images are used to differentiate the cloud, rain given
cloud and snow. The SWIR band is sensitive to the moisture content soils recently irrigated field therefore appears in
darker tones in SWIR images. These Images are used for monitoring local snow cover, day time Fog, Convective R/F
estimation, Cloud radiative properties, NDSI.
Globe Asiamer NE NW SE
SW Pilgrim Sector
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Midwave Infra-Red (MIR)
The Mid IR window channel (3.9um) has more temperature sensitivity than thermal infrared and has many
applications in conjunction with thermal infrared channels. It is almost impossible to detect fog or low clod in
conventional IR (10-12 µm) images in night if the fog top has a similar temperature to that of the adjacent ground. In
this 3.9 µm channel, however the water droplets in fog can be differentiated from a land or sea surface at the same
temperature because of emissivity difference. It is also used to identify night time fire/hotspot, volcanic eruption and
ash detection in conjunction with thermal infrared window channel. During day time, this channel is modulated by
reflected sunlight, the day time image is warmer than night time image. The sun glint by the sea surface produces
glow in this channel and shows sea brighter than small cirrus cloud.
Globe Asiamer NE NW SE
SW
Water Vapour (WV)
The band 6.5 -7.1um is called water vapour band. This is not an atmospheric window but is a part of the IR spectrum
where water vapour is dominant absorbing gas. So naturally baseline information will not be available for this
channel. In a normal moist atmosphere, most of the radiation received by the satellite originates between mid and
upper part of the troposphere. Moist air or cloud in the lower half of the troposphere is not depicted well in WV
imagery. But thick high clouds, such as cumulonimbus, anvils stand out prominently.
Broad scale flow patterns of moisture, upper tropospheric cyclone, raising and subsidence of moisture appears bright
and dark respectively. The jet streams are delineated by sharp gradients in moisture, with dry air on the pole ward
side. The atmospheric motion vector derived from WV imagery is directly used in NWP models.
Globe Asiamer
39
Thermal Infra-Red (TIR-1)
The band between 10.3 – 11.3 µm are called thermal infrared band-1. Around the 10.7 um region, most of the energy
radiated from the surface reach's the sensor, because the radiances emitted by the surface is less affected by the
atmospheric components thus the band known as “clear atmospheric window". Since the temperature measured is
close to scene temperature. Used for monitoring cloud top and surface temperature, cloud cover, air mass
boundaries, convergence zones, surface lows and thunderstorms both day and night. Because cloud top Brightness
temperature decreases with height, thermal IR images show good contrast between clouds at different levels unlike
visible image.
Globe Asiamer NE NW SE SW
Aviation Pilgrim
Cloud Top Brightness Temperature/IR-1 BT Blended Image
Brightness Temperature (BT) is the temperature of that body when it is assumed as a perfectly black body (i.e.,
Emissivity=1). Though Cloud is not a perfectly black body, however for derivation of Cloud Top Brightness
Temperature (CTBT), cloud is assumed as a black body. In CTBT contour image, the CTBT contours are plotted over the
grey count of thermal infrared (IR-1) band of imager payload. These contours provide the quantitative measurement
of CTBT. The value of CTBT corresponds to the vertical growth and intensity of convective clouds. The more negative
value of CTBT corresponds to higher vertical growth and intensity. Another IR1 BT blended image prepared using two
different type of LUT in a single image that is grey scale for the range of +30 to -30-degree BT values and coloured
scale for the range -30 to -100-degree Celsius BT to identify well developed convective cells.
CTBT IR-1 BT Blended Image

40
IR-1 BT & Visible Sandwich Image
The overshooting tops usually resemble “bubbles” of several image pixels across, seen either in visible and near
infrared spectral bands due to their texture and shadows they cast, or in thermal bands as local brightness
temperature minima, with steep gradients surrounding them. Under favourable conditions the overshooting tops are
accompanied by smaller-scale warm spots or larger and longer-lived embedded warm areas, forming downwind of the
overshooting tops, easily observed in the colour-enhanced thermal IR imagery. Usually the overshooting tops and
their downwind warm spots are observed independently, in the two stand-alone bands – the Visible band, and colour-
enhanced IR10.8 brightness temperature imagery. Here we present a new image product, which merges the two
bands together, allowing to observe all of these features simultaneously, in one single product.
BD Curve and IMD curve Enhancement images for cyclone
Infrared-1BT images using INSAT-3D & 3DR imager payload data are generated &displayed that have been enhanced
using two primary enhancement curves. These enhancements are used to highlight various different features within
the imagery, with each enhancement used for different purposes. These two enhancements are named the "BD
Curve" and "IMD Curve" enhancements.
The BD curve enhancement is used a great deal in the research and tropical cyclone forecasting communities who are
interested in determining the intensity of these storms. This enhancement is otherwise known as the "Dvorak
Hurricane Curve for Tropical Cyclone Classification", and is applied only to infrared (10.8µm) imagery. The different
black/white/gray ranges represent different intensity classifications in the Subjective Dvorak Intensity Classification
Technique (NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 11, 1984). The temperature values displayed on the image above are
approximate, with the absolute temperature ranges for each gray shade. The IMD curve enhancement is mainly
utilized for enhancement of infrared (10.8µm) imagery for television, newspaper, and internet displays. This
enhancement is typically provided for/by the media since they prefer to work with colour imagery rather than simple
black & white enhanced imagery.
BD Curve IMD Curve
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Thermal Infra-Red (TIR-2)
The band between 11.5 – 12.5 µm are called thermal infrared band-2. TIR-2 window region around 12 µm, is
contaminated by low level water vapor, and thus is called the "dirty window” and it is used to identify the Lower-
Troposphere Moisture.
Globe Asiamer
INSAT-3D RGB Composite Images : Description
RGB composite images are produced by composing satellite images colored in red, green and blue (RGB). In the multi-
spectral imager era RGB composites are an excellent addition to the tools available at the forecasters’ bench. In an
operational environment it is important of course, to judiciously select the RGB composites and limit their number to
a strict minimum in accordance with the problems at hand. At the same time one should strive for composites being
available night and day and maximizing feature identification.
Two application specific RGB products Day Microphysics RGB, Night Microphysics RGB are generated in IMD by using
data from INSAT-3D Imager.
Day Microphysics RGB Imagery
Channel combination “recipes” of the Day Microphysics RGB
• In the RED beam - The visible reflectance at 0.64 µm approximates the cloud optical depth (thickness) and
amount of cloud water and ice. Typically, water cloud is more reflective than ice cloud and thus will have a stronger
red beam component. This channel also gives information about the surface of the earth.
• In the GREEN beam – The 1.67 μm SWIR (shortwave infrared) solar reflectance gives a qualitative measure for
cloud particle size and phase. Typically smaller water droplets or small ice particles have a higher reflectivity, resulting
in a stronger green beam component. A sandy earth surface also has a strong reflectance in this channel.
• In the BLUE beam - The 10.8 μm TIR1 brightness temperature is a function of surface and cloud top B.
temperatures. The scaling for this beam results in a strong blue beam component for warm surfaces, whereas cold
cloud tops will not have any contribution in this beam.
This colour scheme is useful for cloud analysis, convection, fog, snow, and fires.
Day microphysics RGB scheme
Beam Channel Range Gamma

Red VIS(0.55-0.75 µm) 0 …+100 % 1.0
Green SWIR(1.67µm) 0 ... +60 % 1.0
Blue IR(10.8 µm) +203 ... +323 ºK 1.0
This product is used during the daytime because a solar reflectance component is adopted. Colors and their
interpretation are based on I. M. Lensky and D. Rosenfeld : Clouds-Aerosols- Precipitation Satellite Analysis Tool
(CAPSAT), Atmos. Chem. Phys.,8, 6739-6753, 2008i.
42
INSAT-3D RGB Composite Images : Description
The Night Microphysics RGB product is designed and tuned for monitoring the evolution of night time fog and stratus
clouds. Other secondary applications include detecting fires, classification of clouds in general, snow and low-level
moisture boundaries.
The distinction between low clouds and fog is often a challenge. While the difference in the TIR1 10.8µm and MIR
3.9µm channels is applied to meet this challenge, the Night-time Microphysics RGB adds TIR2 12.0µm channel
difference to indicate cloud thickness and enhance areas of warm clouds where fog is more likely.
Other applications of Night-time Microphysics RGB include analysis of cirrus and contrail clouds, fire hot spots, and
snow.
Channel combination recipe of the Night Microphysics RGB
• In the RED beam: The channel differencing gives an indication of optical depth. It uses TIR2 – TIR1. There is a
strong signal in this beam for thick clouds. For thin meteorological cloud there is greater absorption by the "dirty
window" 12 µm channel. In addition, the 12 µm radiation is absorbed more strongly in ice phase cloud compared to
water phaseclouds.
• In the GREEN beam: This channel differencing is used in fog/low cloud detection method. It uses TIR1 – MIR. The
3.9 µm radiation has lower emissivity compared to the 10.8 µm radiation for small water droplet clouds. Therefore,
there is a large contribution to the green beam in this RGB product for water clouds with small droplets. There is also
a significant contribution from desert surfaces.
• In the BLUE beam: The 10.8 µm infrared brightness temperature is a function of surface and cloud top
temperatures. The scaling for this beam results in a strong blue beam component for warm surfaces.
Night-time microphysics RGB scheme
Beam Channel Range Gamma
Red IR12.0 µm - IR10.8 µm(TIR2-TIR1) -4 … +2 K 1.0
Green IR10.8 µm - IR3.9 µm (TIR1-MIR) -4 … +6 K 1.0
Blue IR10.8 µm (TIR1) +243 … +293 K 1.0
Some of the identified clouds and features are listed below for reference,
Fog can also be detected through Night-time Microphysics RGB Imagery. Fog and low clouds in warm climates tend to
have aqua or light blue areas in the RGB. This appears very light green in colder climates because the 10.8 µm thermal
channel used for the blue band contributes less.
43
Table
Lists the DMP and NMP thresholds along with their resolution and time of use for
identification of fog and low clouds
Product Pixel Time Source Use (Conditions)

Resolutio
n
Night Time 1 to 4Km 13 to 02 RAPID 1.TIR2-TIR1 BT DIFF > must be negative and -4 to
RGB (3.9, UTC (of rapid.imd.gov.in 1.5K
10.8 μm)] next 2. TIR1-MIR BT must be -26K to -1, if positive =
day) Ice/Snow clouds
Half 3. TIR1 BT < 255K
Hourly ===>Thunderstorm with Rain
i) TIR2-TIR1 BT DIFF>becoming positive and -2 to
2K
ii) TIR1-MIR BT must be -26K to 25
iii) TIR1 BT < 250K
===>Thunderstorm with Hail
Day Time 1-4 Km 02:30 to i) TIR1 BT Rate of Change is (in consecutive hours
RGB 12:30 RAPID ) -5 to -15 K
(TIR,SWIR, UTC rapid.imd.gov.in ii) VIS 26-55% (Increasing trend) iii)SWIR < 28%
Vis) Half (Decreasing trend) and
Hourly iv) VIS>SWIR
==>Thunderstorm with Rain
i) TIR1 BT Rate of Change (in consecutive hours )
is -5 to -38 K
ii) VIS 18-58% (Increasing trend)
iii) SWIR < 25% (Decreasing trend) and
iv) VIS>SWIR
==>Thunderstorm with Hail
Table
DMP and NMP thresholds along with its pixel resolution and time of use for thunderstorms prior to the event
Product Resolution Time Source Use (Conditions)

Night Time RGB 1 to 4Km 13 to 02 UTC RAPID 1.TIR2-TIR1 BT
(3.9, 10.8 μm)] (of next day) rapid.imd.gov.in DIFF>must be +1 to -1 K
2. TIR1-MIR BT >2.5K
Half Hourly 3. TIR1 BT> 279K ===>
Fog
1.TIR2-TIR1 BT DIFF> -1
to 0 K
2. TIR1-MIR BT >2.5K
3. TIR1 BT< 275K
===> Low
cloud/Mist/Haze
Day Time RGB 1 to 4Km 02:30 to 12:30 RAPID TIR1 BT between 255-
UTC rapid.imd.gov.in 275K & VIS 30-45% &
Half Hourly SWIR 31-60% ==>Low
Cloud
TIR between 276-290K &
VIS 16-55% & SWIR 31-
60% ===> FOG
44
2.2.2. Imager Products from INSAT-3D & 3DR Satellite
Product Temporal Horizontal Format Domain Unit

Resolution Resolution
Upper Tropospheric Half hourly, Daily, Per pixel HDF/JPEG Globe Percentage (%)
Humidity (UTH) Weekly, Monthly coverage
Total Precipitable Half hourly Per Pixel HDF/JPEG Globe (Ocean) cm
Water Vapour (New
Product)
0 0
Sea Surface Half Hourly 0.5 × 0.5 HDF/JPEG Globe (Ocean) degree Celsius
temperature (SST)
LST (Land Surface Half Hourly Per pixel HDF/JPEG Globe (Land) Kelvin
Temperature)
Cloud Products
Cloud Mask Half Hourly Per pixel HDF/JPEG Globe 0-Pixel is clear,
1- pixel is
cloudy,
2- pixel is
probably clear
3- pixel is
probably cloudy
CTT (Cloud top Half Hourly 50 km HDF/JPEG Globe Kelvin
temperature)
Cloud top pressure Half Hourly 50 km HDF/JPEG Globe hPa
Effective cloud Half hourly 50 km HDF/JPEG Globe percentage (%).
emissivity
Cloud Fraction Half Hourly 50 km HDF/JPEG Globe Expressed in
fractions
0 0
Cloud Particle Half hourly Per Pixel HDF/JPEG 30 E-130 E Microns
Effective Radius 0 0
50 S-50 N
0 0
Cloud Optical Half hourly Per Pixel HDF/JPEG 30 E-130 E percentage (%)
Thickness 0 0
50 S-50 N
Rain Fall products (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation)
Hydro Estimator Half hourly, Daily, Per pixel HDF/JPEG Globe mm/hr
Precipitation (HEM) Weekly, Monthly (mm-Daily,
Weekly,
Monthly)
0 0 0 0
Insat Multispectral Half hourly, Daily, 0.1 × 0.1 HDF/JPEG 30 E-120 E mm/hr
Rainfall (IMSRA) Weekly, Monthly 0 0
40 S-40 N (mm-Daily,
Weekly,
Monthly)
0 0 0 0
Global precipitation Three Hourly 1 ×1 HDF/JPEG 30 E-120 E mm
Index (GPI) Accumulated 0 0
40 S-40 N
IMSRA (Improved) Half hourly, Daily, Per Pixel HDF/JPEG Globe mm/hr
Weekly, Monthly (mm-Daily,
Weekly,
Monthly)
45
Atmospheric MotionVectors (AMV) and wind Derived products
0 0
Cloud Motion Vector Half Hourly at Levels Point Gif/JPEG 30 E-130 E Knots
(CMV/IR1-wind) (100-400mb 0 0
40 S-40 N
401-700mb
701-975mb)
0 0
Water vapour Winds Half Hourly at Levels Point Gif/JPEG 30 E-130 E Knots
(WVW) (100-250mb 0 0
40 S-40 N
251-350mb
351-500mb)
0 0
Visible (during day) Half Hourly at levels (600- Point Gif/JPEG 30 E-130 E Knots
/MIR (during night) 800mb 0 0
40 S-40 N
Winds 801-975mb)
0 0
IRW –Merged winds Half hourly Point Gif/JPEG 30 E-130 E Knots
0 0
40 S-40 N
0 0
WVW-Merged winds Half hourly Point Gif/JPEG 30 E-130 E Knots
0 0
40 S-40 N
0 0
Vis-HR winds Half hourly Point Gif/JPEG 30 E-130 E Knots
0 0
40 S-40 N
0 0 0 0 -5
Vorticity (850,700,500 Half hourly 0.5 X0.5 Gif/JPEG 30 E-130 E 10 x
& 200 hPa) 40 S-40 N /sec
0 0
0 0 0 0 -5
Low Level Half hourly 0.5 X0.5 Gif/JPEG 30 E-130 E 10 x
Convergence (850-925 40 S-40 N /sec
0 0
hPa):
0 0 0 0 -5
Upper level Half hourly 0.5 X0.5 Gif/JPEG 30 E-130 E 10 x
Divergence (150-300 40 S-40 N /sec
0 0
hPa):
0 0 0 0
Wind Shear: Half hourly 0.5 X0.5 Gif/JPEG 30 E-130 E Knots
0 0
40 S-40 N
0 0 0 0
Mid-Level wind Shear Half hourly 0.5 X0.5 Gif/JPEG 30 E-130 E Knots
0 0
40 S-40 N
0 0 0 0
Wind Shear Tendency Half hourly 0.5 X0.5 Gif/JPEG 30 E-130 E Knots
0 0
40 S-40 N
Miscellaneous Geophysical Products
0 0
Snow cover 0500,0530, Per pixel HDF/JPEG 20 E-110 E Unit-less
0 0
0600,0630 UTC 50 S-50 N
0 0
Fire Half Hourly Point HDF/JPEG 60 E-100 E Unit-less
0 0
0 N-40 N
0 0
Smoke Half Hourly Point HDF/JPEG 60 E-100 E Unit-less
0 0
0 N-40 N
0 0
Fog (Night Time/Day Half Hourly Per pixel HDF/JPEG 45 E-110 E Unit-less
Time) 0 0
10 S-45 N
0 0
Fog Intensity Half Hourly Per pixel HDF/JPEG 45 E-110 E Unit-less
10 S-45 N (1,2,3,4)
0 0
0 0
Aerosol Optical Depth 0500 to 0830 UTC on half Per pixel for HDF/JPEG 45 E-100 E Unit-less
(AOD) hourly basis clear sky 0 0
10 S-45 N
46
Radiation Products/ Agromet Products

2
Outgoing Long Wave Half hourly, Daily, Weekly, Per pixel HDF/JPEG Globe Watt/m
Radiation (OLR) Monthly
0 0 2
Net Radiation Half hourly Per Pixel HDF/JPEG 60 E-100 E Watt/m
0 0
5 N-40 N
0 0
Land surface Albedo Half hourly Per Pixel HDF/JPEG 60 E-100 E Unit -
0 0
5 N-40 N less
(land)
0 0 2
Short Wave Radiation Half hourly Per Pixel HDF/JPEG 40 E-110 E Watt/m
0 0
15 S-25 N
(Ocean)
0 0
Evapotranspiration Half hourly Per Pixel HDF/JPEG 50 E-105 E mm
0 0
(PET) 5 S-41 N
(land)
0 0
Actual Half hourly Per Pixel HDF/JPEG 60 E-100 E mm/day
Evapotranspiration 0
5 N-40 N
0
0 0 2
Insolation Half Hourly Per pixel HDF/JPEG 45 E-110 E Watt/m
0 0
10 S-45 N
2.2.3. Sounder Products
S. No. Data Product Processing Code Format Remarks

Level
Standard Products
Standard Product L1B STD HDF Per Pixel Lat & Lon as
viewed by Satellite
Geo-Physical Parameters
Vertical Profiles and L2B PFL HDF Profile on 3x3 Pixels
Derived products (Average)
The algorithm of sounder products is designed for retrieving vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and
moisture along with total column ozone content in the atmosphere from clear sky infrared radiances in different
absorption bands observed through INSAT-3D/3DR.
Sounder derived profiles include temperature at 40 vertical pressure levels from surface to about 70 km and water
vapor in 21 levels from surface to around 15 km. Following application products are derived from sounder derived
atmospheric profiles.
The profiles generated include:

(i) Temperature
(ii) Humidity
(iii) Total Ozone
These derived products include:
(iv) Geopotential height

(v) Layer and total precipitable water
(vi) Lifted index from sounder
(vii) Dry microburst index
(viii) Maximum vertical theta-e differential
(ix) Wind index
47
Sample INSAT-3D/3DR Sounder L2 Products
Geopotential Height: Calculate layer thickness between pressure levels starting from surface.
LIFTED INDEX : LI >2 –No Significant Activity

-2<LI<0 -Thunder storm possible
LI < -4 -Severe thunder storm possible
Dry microburst index (DMI) : Dry microburst occurs in situations characterized by high convective cloud bases and
strong evaporation cooling in the sub-cloud layer, resulting in little or no precipitation at the surface. Such conditions
occur in mountainous and high plain regions.
48
Wind Index : Wind index provide guidance on the maximum possible wind gusts that can occur with given
atmospheric conditions, if convection were to occur. This is useful for generating short-range warnings and forecasts.
Maximum vertical theta-e (θe) differential : The equivalent potential temperature (θe) is a measure of the total static
energy (sensible heat, latent heat and geopotential) in an atmospheric column. Due to its strong dependence on
moisture, θe decreases rapidly with height above the boundary layer reaching a minimum in the middle troposphere,
then θe increases again into the upper troposphere. The maximum vertical θe differential from boundary layer to the
middle troposphere is a useful quantity in calculating microburst potential etc.
Total precipitable water : The TPW may be used for monitoring the mesoscale to synoptic-scale convective activity,
monsoonal activities, and moisture gradients. It has shown a significant improvement in precipitation forecasts when
TPW is incorporated in the numerical weather prediction models.
Accuracy with Radiosondes
Temperature : There is a consistently negative bias (~ 0.2 to 0.8°C) in temperature below 850 hPa and positive bias
(~1 to 2 °C) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all stations is noticed. The root-mean-square error
(RMSE) values between INSAT-3D and radiosonde station temperature profiles at each altitude level shows better
agreement less than 4 °C except above 200 hPa more than 3 °C at all stations.
Humidity: 30%
Total precipitable water : The comparison of INSAT-3D TPW with RS TPW on monthly bases shows that the root
means square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficients (CC) are ∼8 mm and 0.8, respectively. In general, INSAT-3D
TPW corresponds well with rainfall observation; however, it has found that heavy rainfall events occur in the presence
of high TPW values. It is found that the heavy and heavy-to-very-heavy rainfall correspond to the higher INSAT TPW
values (60–80 and above 80 mm).
2.2.4. Dissemination
All the channel & specialized Images and Products Images being disseminated through dedicated webpages
http://satellite.imd.gov.in/insat.htm
It can further be expanded by clicking RAPID SCAN, Agromet Product, SCATSAT-1 Wind and to see detailvarious
products which ae not cover-up on main webpage on link click here.
https://www.satellite.imd.gov.in/rapid/rapid_scan.htm
The division is also maintaining the online archival of last six months channel and products Images on FTP Server
which is also user name and password protected.
ftp://satmet@103.215.208.84/
http://satmet.imd.gov.in/insat3d.htm
49
Features
• Selection via Drop down box.

• Auto Zooming facility.
• User defined Animation on all set of imageries and products.
• Imagery/Product description documents for all.
• Availability of last 24 hrs imageries/products for visualization.
50
These Webpages are user name & password protected. International Meteorological services, National Government
Agency and Research Institutions dealing with forecasting disaster management and research work can obtained the
username and password information from virendra61.singh@imd.gov.in with the conditions that these will not be
further shared with others.
For general users, limited satellites Images are disseminated through https://mausam.imd.gov.in/ and can be visualize
by clicking Satellite.
2.2.5. Real-time Analysis of Product and Information Dissemination (RAPID)
With an increase in the number of Earth Observation satellites, large volume of data and types of data products
available to users from meteorological satellites has created a requirement for a web-based interface, which can
provide quick visualisation and analysis capabilities to end users and in-particular to meteorologists and decision
makers.
RAPID introduces Next Generation Weather Data Access & Advanced Visualization Application that touches the life of
common man in one or other way ranging from severe weather monitoring to various sectoral applications like
agriculture, tourism, sports etc. For example, we can assess the fog over railway tracks and surface transportation
highways, aviation, navigation & a pilot can monitor the location, intensity & movement of cumulonimbus clouds
enroute.
This tool was conceptualized and developed by Satellite Application Centre (SAC), ISRO in collaboration with India
Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi to enhance the visualization and analysis of INSAT Meteorological
Satellite data on real time basis by the forecasting community. This system is operationally sustained by National
Satellite Meteorological Centre (IMD), New Delhi. This tool is hosted at http://www.rapid.imd.gov.in/. User guide for
operating this tool is available on http://satellite. imd.gov.in/desc/RAPID_User_Guide.pdf
51
2.2.6. METEOSAT SEVIRI (spinning enhanced visible and infrared imager) located at 41.5°E Meteosat 8- Channel
Imageries
Bands (µm) Domain Resolution (at Nadir) Approximate Size Frequency of Updation
Vis 0.6 10S-50N, 3km x 3km 2.5mb 15 mins
40E-110E
Vis 0.8 10S-50N, 3km x 3km 2.5mb 15 mins
40E-110E
IR 1.6 10S-50N, 3km x 3km 2.5mb 15 mins
40E-110E
40E-110E
40E-110E
40E-110E
40E-110E
40E-110E
40E-110E
WV 6.2 10S-50N, 3km x 3km 2.5mb 15 mins
40E-110E
WV 7.3 10S-50N, 3km x 3km 2.5mb 15 mins
40E-110E
RGB recipes used to generate RGB products from METEOSAT-8
RGB Products
Name of Product Domain Resolution Limitation Frequency of
Updation
Air-mass 10S-50N, 3km x 3km Only mid-upper level 15 mins
40E-110E information
Convection 10S-50N, 3km x 3km Only Day time product 15 mins
40E-110E
Day Microphysics 10S-50N, 3km x 3km Only available during Day 15 mins
40E-110E time
Night Microphysics 10S-50N, 3km x 3km Only available during Day 15 mins
40E-110E time
Dust 10S-50N, 3km x 3km Concentration and height of 15 mins
40E-110E dust cannot be ascertained.
True Color 10S-50N, 3km x 3km Only available during Day 15 mins
40E-110E time
52
Wind Products
Name of Product Domain Resolution Limitation Frequency of

Updation
Winds- All levels 10S-50N, 3km x 3km Winds are derived only 15 mins
45E-105E wherever atmospheric
tracers are available
Winds- High levels 10S-50N, 3km x 3km Only 400-100hPa level 15 mins
45E-105E Winds
Winds-Medium 10S-50N, 3km x 3km Only 600-400hPa level 15 mins

levels 45E-105E Winds
Winds- Low evels 10S-50N, 3km x 3km Only 800-600hPa level 15 mins
45E-105E Winds
Imageries and products are available at http://foreignsat.imd.gov.in/
2.2.7. GNSS
IPWV derived product from GNSS Network is used for continuous monitoring the column precipitable water vapour
and Meteorological parameters values (Pressure, Temperature, Relative Humidity) charts in real time basis through a
dedicated web page (http://gnss.imd.gov.in/TrimblePivotWeb/MemberPages/AtmosphericConditions/
IpwvMap.aspx). To watch these parameters user can use the following sequence selections-
(i) Condition chart under Atmospheric conditions
(ii) Stations name may be selected from extreme right-hand drop-down box “All Stations” name.
(iii) Parameters selection in a first drop-down menu with a default “IPWV” name
(iv) For time periods selection to visualize every 15 minutes data curve in second drop-down menu with a default
“last 2 hours” name.
(v) To watch average or current digital values of parameters user can opt third dropdown box with default “raw”
name.
53
The following criteria of IPWV and surface temperature values may be used for predicting the rainfall occurrence
associated with Synoptic system at Inland and Costal stations.
Inland Stations
Surface Temperature
Month IPWV (with Synoptic system)
(approximately)
Jan 10 – 15-degreeCelcius 15 – 18 mm
Feb 15 – 20 C 18 – 22 mm
March 15 - 25 C 20 – 25 mm
April 25 - 35 25 – 30 mm
May 35-40 >40 mm (less than this value dust storm)
June 38 – 45 Degree Celsius >45 mm (less than this value dust storm)
Monsoon 30-38 degree >60 mm
Break Monsoon 40 – 45 mm
Post Monsoon 30-35 30 – 40 mm
Costal station : South Peninsular India
Month Surface Temperature IPWV

JAN - FEB 20 – 30 C 40 mm and more
MAR - APRIL 30 – 35 C 45 and above
MAY,JUN,JULY,AUG,SEP,OCT 35 – 40 C 55 and above
NOV, DEC 30 - 35 60 and above
Further, If IPWV > 60 mm and maintains average value around 60 mm continuously for 2 to 3 days, then forecaster
may use as favourable condition for monsoon arrival at that location. If IPWV values associated with synoptic systems
lies between 65-68 mm will give heavy rainfall over costal stations. More than 70 mm IPWV associated with synoptic
system will give heavy to very heavy rainfall provided IPWV value maintains this value at synoptic time scale. The
IPWV normally increases and may go more than 80 mm in severe convective thunderstorms particularly NE, Bihar, UP,
Delhi, Jharkhand region.
For Hilly region depending upon the elevation, the value of IPWV comparatively less than plain region. Example or
Bengaluru, 40 mm is threshold value for Monsoon arrival. Similarly, for Shimla ranges between 30 - 35 mm. The
IPWV values for nowcasting the TS and rainfall area site specific. However, forecaster may further refine these
thresholds for different weather events, different seasons and stationsfor more accurate forecasting.
54
Doppler Weather Radars & Its Application
Chapter 3
DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS & ITS APPLICATION
3.1. Radar network in India Meteorological Department
The digital and Doppler capability increases the versatility of the radars several fold. Besides reflectivity factor which is
the basic output of all radars, these give additional output of velocity and its variance. Using these outputs it is
possible to derive several products of operational meteorological interest. Distribution of rainfall rates, accumulated
rain over a period of time, vertical profile of wind, signatures of cyclones and tornadoes, maximum wind in cyclones,
wind shear and turbulence, probability of severe weather and hail and the likely size of hailstones are among the
important products.
• Installed at Chennai, Kolkata, Machilipatnam, Visakhapatnam, Paradip, Gopalpur, Hyderabad, Nagpur, Patna,
Lucknow, Patiala, Karaikal, Kochi, Bhopal, Agartala, Mohanbari, Delhi (Palam) and Goa and 02 numbers C-band
Polarimetric DWRs are installed at Delhi (HQ) and Jaipur and four X-band DWR has been installed at Srinagar,
Sonamarg, Kufri and Mukteshwar.
• IMD's network consists of 27 DWR radars comprising of 21 S-band Radars (DWRs), 02 C-band Radars and 4 X-
band DWR at Srinagar, Sonamarg, Kufri and Mukteshwar. Data is also being utilized from ISRO owned radars at
Thiruvananthapuram and Cherrapunjee.
• IMD plans to install radars with state-of-art Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) in a phased manner at Mumbai,
Bangalore, Mangalore, Lakshadweep, Andaman Island (Port Blair), Balasore, Sambalpur, Raipur, Ranchi, Ratnagiri
and Ahmedabad.
• Under scheme of Integrated Himalayan Meteorology Project (IHMP) IMD will install 10 X-band DWRs in Central
and Western Himalayas to cover the hilly range of J&K, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
55
3.2. Operational scan strategies and radar data flow
3.2.1. Operational scan strategy
DWR scans are designed so as to suit the prevailing weather situations and data requirements.
Fig. 2. Radar Volume scan
The scan schedules are as follows:
a) A long range single elevation scan, generally up to 500Km range, with lowest elevation angle possible is done to
have general observation of the atmosphere around the radar site. Scan time maximum 2 minutes.
b) A medium range (upto 250Km) multiple elevations scan, called a volume scan is done for detailed probing of
atmosphere. Scan time maximum 9 minutes.
c) A 10 minute temporal spaced scan strategy, to suit the periods of bad weather or expected bad weather, is
adopted by all Indian DWRs.
3.2.2. Doppler Weather Data
Doppler Weather Radar produces mainly three kinds of data viz., Raw Data, Digital Products Data and Image Data.
3.2.3. Sharing of Doppler Weather Radar Data
The following products are considered most common and useful to weather forecasters and also to common man:
• Plan Position Indicator – Reflectivity (PPZ)

• Plan Position Indicator – Velocity (PPV)
• Plan Position Indicator – Surface Rainfall Intensity (SRI)
• Plan Position Indicator – 24 hours Precipitation Accumulation (PAC)
• Maximum Reflectivity -- (Max-Z)
• Vertical Wind Profile -- (VVP2)
3.2.4. Data Flow
• The RAW data of all DWRs are received via VPN / INTERNET in every 10 minutes.
• The Central server at Radar lab, HQ accepts data in IRIS, Rainbow and BEL format for processing. BEL and
Rainbow format is converted to IRIS format for compatibility with IRIS software.
• The received/converted data is passed through the IRIS and any corrupted data gets filtered out.
• The filtered data is then used for generating various output products and format conversion to NetCDF, BUFR
and HDF5
56
3.2.5. Networking, Power and other associated equipment
• All DWRs are having a number of servers that processes the radar data and provides data for products and
images generation.
VPN network (Images and Data received from all DWR stations)
IMAGE Processor BEL2IRIS

IRIS
RAW
Archival Product
DDGM(UI) GIS/
web server COMPOSITE
TELECOM ISSD, NWP &

web server other users
DWR Data flow at HQ.
There are number of servers used at DWR stations for processing radar data, images generation, archival of raw data
and images etc.
• The data and images are shared by DWR stations with Radar Lab, HQ via VPN and broadband networks in real
time.
3.3. Radar Operational details
• DWR stations operate radars 24X7 for detection of significant weather.

• Weather warnings and bulletins are being issued to state government authorities and other recipients using
radar images by DWR stations.
• In case of cyclones, thunderstorms and extreme weather events, bulletins and earnings are also issued using
emails, fax, SMS etc.
• Restricted Operations
Radar lab in consultation with station in charge can suggest reducing the operational hours of Radar to the Radar
station based on any operational constraints arising due to technical or logistic reasons.
57
3.4. Basics of weather radar products & its interpretation
3.4.1. Introduction
Radar can only detect reflected energy when it is in listening mode. While radar is transmitting energy, it cannot
detect reflected energy. Since radar alternates between transmitting and receiving energy, a term called the pulse
repetition frequency (PRF) – defined as the rate at which the radar sends pulses. PRF is used to characterize radar. For
example, a PRF of 1000 Hz, it means the radar is transmitting 1000 pulses per second, or one pulse every thousandth
(0.001) of a second. The PRF has mathematical significance to reflectivity and velocity products also. Microwave
energy emitted by radar has all the characteristics of waves. One of them is wavelength, defined as the distance
between successive peaks or valleys in a wave. In the microwave portion of the electromagnetic spectrum,
wavelengths may be varied between 1 millimetre and 1 meter. For Doppler weather radars, different wavelengths are
being used like 10 centimetre (S-band), 5 centimetre (C-band), and 3 centimetre (X-band) radars. The wavelengths
used for radar have three major effects:
a. How small of particles the radar can detect?

b. How much the beam is attenuated as it bounces off the reflectors?
c. How large a value of velocity can be measured?
The shorter the wavelength, the smaller the particles the radar can detect. Attenuation means weakening of the beam
due to energy being deflected away or absorbed by particles as the beam travels away from the radar. A practical
application of this effect is when a radar beam has to travel through several intense thunderstorms, or along a line of
intense thunderstorms. The beam will encounter with a very large number of raindrops as it passes through the
thunderstorms. The more raindrops the beam bounces off less energy is left to travel farther to more distant storms.
The product called base reflectivity displays the amount of energy that has returned to the radar. If there is less
energy emitted to reflect from particles, there will be less back reflected power to the radar. This will make it seem
like the thunderstorms that are farther out are less intense, in fact they may be as intense as or more intense than the
storms closer to the radar.
3.4.2. Interpretation of Basic Radar Images
The interpretation of radar images in terms of rainfall intensity at the ground is complicated due to several factors.
These require the modification of observed patterns of radar echoes. Although useful corrections for these factors can
be made automatically but they cannot be eliminated completely, hence understanding of their effects is important
for improving the usefulness of the imagery to forecasters/users. Doppler Weather Radar is a very useful tool to
provide a wealth of information but it needs proper interpretation. In the past, only meteorologists had access for
Weather Radar data, but now a day, the Internet has enabled the general public to access the same data that is being
used by meteorologists on a daily basis.
To understand “what is “it” when we look into the radar imagery, just looking at the radar return isn't always as
simple as looking it. Though, there may be the thunderstorm and clouds, the experienced meteorologist will certainly
be able to glance at a radar image and quickly be able to make out the important features, but most of us have to
study the images quite a bit closer. The experienced meteorologist should always be the first source of information.
Meteorology and radar interpretation are different complex fields like other fields and require experience. It is easy
and good to understand the concepts but when it comes right down to it this becomes a very complicated topic and
the ability to interpret radar images and conclusion are always different from person to person even they have
working experience with this technology.
The main difficulty is when looking at Doppler Weather Radar imagery especially differentiating between what is real
and what isn't and what is important and what isn't. The DWRs are so sensitive that they are capable of picking up
birds, insects, smoke or even dust, pollen, pollution and temperature inversions.
Therefore there are two primary points that needs to be considered when observing DWR images:
• Recognize real meteorological objects and be able to identify them.

• Identify known radar anomalies produced by birds, insects, smoke, dust, temperature inversions and radar data
anomalies etc.
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3.4.3. Types of base data
The Doppler Weather Radar initially generates three types of base data:
a. Reflectivity (i.e., the amplitude of the backscattered signal)
1. Reflectivity
Echo intensity (reflectivity) is measured in scale of dBZ. Reflectivity is the amount of transmitted power returned to
the radar. The base reflectivity is essentially “raw” data usually seen from the lowest tilt angle, 0.50 degree, for
example PPI-Z (Reflectivity) product is the Base Reflectivity. The Base Reflectivity Products are able to detect
precipitation, evaluate storm structure, locate atmospheric boundaries and determine hail potential. The Several
different elevation angles (tilts) of the radar can be used for composite reflectivity products, for example the CAPPI-Z
and MAX-Z are the Composite Reflectivity products. The colours are the different echo intensities (reflectivity)
measured in dBZ (decibels of Z). The dBZ values increase as the strength of the signal returned to the radar increases.
Very Light rain will have dBZ values around 20dBZ with more intense thunderstorms having values of 50 dBZ or more.
In the following figure some reflectivity products are shown.
(a) PPI-Z (b) CAPPI-Z (c) MAX-Z

Figure. Reflectivity Products of Doppler Weather Radar
There are three factors distinguish the Reflectivity Product.
(i) Weather radars can receive false echoes from ground objects such as buildings and towers. The Reflectivity product
uses Doppler processing to edit out (filter out) most of these false echoes. This Doppler correction stops at about
110km. Because of the correction, the Reflectivity product is generally better and not affected with ground clutters.
(ii) Trees and hills around radars can block some or entire radar beam, resulting in decreased echoes returned at low
angles. This is particularly seen on the Reflectivity product in winter when very low angles are used to detect
precipitation at close range.
(iii) The Reflectivity product can appear to be less sensitive in Doppler mode. A ring of discontinuity may appear at the
transition to the non-Doppler processing (CAPPI). This is especially evident if weak precipitation is occurring where the
Doppler processing ends. Beyond this point, echoes may suddenly appear stronger as the radar's ability to detect
those increases.
 Reflectivity images for Precipitation of Rain.
The relationship between precipitation intensity and reflectivity for "Rain" image correlates reflectivity to rainfall rate
(in mm/h).
The radar reflectivity values can be interpreted in terms of possible precipitation type. As a general rule following
values be used to interpret precipitation type. It may be remembered that the pattern may also tell something about
the precipitation type.
In the following Tables (A) & (B) indicated rain rate and radar reflectivity values in dBZ Vs weather interpretation
respectively.
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dBZ Values Interpretation

< 15 Clouds
15 to 20 Weak steady rain
30 to 40 Shower or heavier rain
>50 Strong thunderstorm
(A) (B)
The legend on the radar image is an important part of interpretation, above left is the color-codes scale for indication
of the reflectivity values. By comparing with a given color in the legend (color-scale), the corresponding reflectivity
values can be read for reflectivity radar image. The example may be seen in the following figure below:
(a) (b) (c) (d)
Figure. (a) The IMD DWR Reflectivity colour coded Scale (b) Reflectivity PPI-Z image (c) The close range reflectivity
PPI-Z image and (d) Reflectivity MAX-Z Image
b. Radial velocity (i.e., the rate of movement toward or away from the radar site);
i. Speed shear wind patterns
To understand Doppler radial velocity patterns, one first has to consider the geometry of a radar scan. Normally the
radar beam is pointed at an elevation angle greater than zero so that the beam, as it moves away from the radar,
moves higher and higher above the surface of the earth as shown in following figure-4.6. Therefore due to this radar
beam geometry, radar returns originating from targets near the radar represent the low-level wind field, while returns
from distant targets represent the wind field at higher levels.
On a radar PPI display, the distance away from the radar

at the center of the display represents both a change in
horizontal distance and a change in vertical distance. To
determine the wind field at a particular elevation above
the radar, one must examine the radial velocities on a
ring at a fixed distance from the radar. The exact
elevation represented by a particular ring depends upon
the elevation angle of the radar beam.
Figure. Radar beam Geometry

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In examples (from figure 4.7 to 4.10) idealized Doppler radial velocity patterns were constructed with a computer
assuming simple vertical wind field patterns. These simplified radial velocity patterns can help in to understand more
complicated patterns that are associated with storm motions. Doppler velocity patterns (right) correspond to vertical
wind profiles (left), where the wind barbs indicate wind speed and direction from the ground up to 24,000 feet.
Negative Doppler velocities (blue-green) are towards the radar and positive (yellow-red) are away from radar. The
radar location is at the center of the display.
For this first example, wind is constant with height,

but wind speed increases from 20 knots at the
ground to 40 knots at 24,000 feet. Note on the
velocity field the maximum inbound velocity is to
the west and maximum outbound is to the east
while to the north and south the radar measures
zero radial velocity. This is because the winds are
perpendicular to the radar beam when viewed to
the northor south.
Figure. Curtsey Image : Brown & Wood
In the second example, the winds increase from 20

to 40 knots between zero and 12,000 feet and then
decrease again to 20 knots at 24,000 feet. The wind
direction again is constant. The radar beam
intersects the 12,000 foot level along a ring half-way
across the radar display. This is where we see the
maximum inbound and outbound velocities.
Figure. Curtsey Image: Brown & Wood
In the third example, we see a wind field which

changes direction from north to south but has a
constant speed at all heights. The zero radial
velocity line now bends so that it is everywhere
perpendicular to the wind field. The maximum
radial velocities are observed where the radar
beam points directly toward or way from the wind
direction.
Figure. Curtsey Image: Brown & Wood
In this fourth example, there is the same effect but

in this case, hence the flow is confluent instead of
diffluent.
Figure. Curtsy Image : Brown & Wood

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ii. PPI-V Product
The PPI-V product s product is indicated some significant information about the local wind field pattern up to the
range of 50 to 70 km only, in absence of clouds. It may be clear here that the Doppler Radars are reporting the radial
wind, not actual winds. The radial wind is the component of wind seen by the antenna when facing it. If the angle
between the actual wind and the antenna position is θ and wind speed is V then radial wind Vr is computed as:
Vr = V cos θ
When wind and the antenna are in the same direction θ will be zero and the radial will be equal to actual wind
(Vr = V). When wind and the antenna are in the opposite direction (facing each other) the θwill be180 degrees and Vr
= --V.
When wind and the antenna are perpendicular to each other then θwill beis 90 degrees and Vr = 0. This property is
used to interpret the wind flow patterns using the PPI-V images. As far as direction is concerned one has to imagine a
line connecting the white areas which indicates that the radial wind is zero, in other words the antenna is not
feelingany wind either into the antenna or away from it. Now imagine lines from blue/green colour areas to
yellow/red colour areas perpendicular to while line (already imagined) at every point/ at regular intervals on it.
If we imagine lines from blue colour areas to yellow colour areas and perpendicular to while line (already imagined) at
every point at regular intervals on it, these lines define the streamlines of wind field. If these lines are indicating that
there is a convergence or divergence that can be easily inferred using the Synoptic chart or top-chart. In other words
one can also see the sector angle of blue/ yellow coloured areas at the centre of the radar image (actually the radar
station). If the sector angle of yellow colour is larger than blue colour we can infer that wind is entering the station
from smaller areas and leaving into larger areas – a clear case of divergence. If the sector angle of yellow colour is
smaller than blue colour we can infer that wind is entering the station from larger areas and leaving into smaller areas.
A clear case of convergence can be in images given on next page (figure below).
Figure. PPI-V DWR product images indicating Convergence in wind field
These type of information can be inferred particularly when a low is developing in the sea areas where there is
inadequate synoptic data.
When cloud is present and wind echoes are recorded, with a north-south trough we can see the wind approaching the
station on the left side of it and wind leaving the station on the right side.
For coastal stations, when sea breeze is approaching it brings in a large quantity of moisture over a long front. The
refractive index variations cause the radar record special line like structures overseas and over the land in such
situations with reflectivity up to 20 dBZ. If we follow these on half hourly to hourly basis, we can see that they move
towards the station, and even the velocity of their movement can be computed. This helps to estimate the sea-breeze
setting time, which is very useful particularly for cities on the coast during very hot summer days. Wind field in PPI-V
supports this direction of movement.
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iii. The VVP-2 Product
The VVP-2 product (Velocity images) of radar provides a picture of the basic wind field in the area surrounding
30 km and up to the height from the surface to the height of 7.5 km or user selectable, with respect to the radar
station. Velocity images are useful for determining areas of strong wind from downbursts or detecting the speed of
cold fronts. The VVP-2 product of DWR-Palam is shown in figure 4.12.
VVP-2 product of DWR. The concept of DWR radial wind & “Zero Isodop”
iv. Limitations in velocity detection with Doppler radars
The radar can “see” only motion of the target either directly towards or away from the radar, called radial velocity.
The strength of the wind will always be less than what is actually occurring unless the wind is moving directly towards
or away from the radar antenna or beam. This is explained in figure-4.13.
c. Spectrum width (i.e. the range of the Doppler shifts)
Aspectrum width estimate is the square root of the second moment about the mean velocity. The Dopplerweather
radars are having the capabilities to detect and display turbulence in the form of Spectrum width products particularly
convective activity. The areas of turbulence in the clear air situation can be pre cursors for convective developments.
In stratiform cloud, areas of higher spectral width indicate the presence of embedded Thunder clouds. This spectrum
width is based on the Doppler Effect and is sensitive to precipitation movement. The spectrum width function needs a
minimum amount of precipitation to be effective. To help make safe flight path decisions, and especially when the
weather ahead is represented as dense, the spectrum width products is useful to detect turbulence.
An area of light rainfall, depicted in green in normal mode, is

shown in red or pink when there is high turbulence activity
within the system.
The spectrum width products are only much effective within

a range of 40 NM (Doppler measurement capability) and can
only be used in wet weather.
Note : Clear air turbulence and dry turbulence cannot be

detected by the weather radar.
Figure. DWR Spectrum Width Product

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3.5. IMD Doppler Weather Radar Products Colour Scales
The following colour scales are being used in IMD for various DWR products, shown in figure below:
(a) Reflectivity colour scale in the unit of dBZ

(b) Mean Velocity Colour scale in the unit of m/s
(c) Spectrum width colour scale in the unit of m/s
(d) Wind Shear products colour scale in m/s/km
(e) Rainfall intensity/ Rainfall Rate colour scale in the unit of mm/hr
(f) Precipitation Rainfall Accumulation colour scale in the unit of mm.
ReflectivityRadial Velocity Spectrum WidthWind Shea Rainfall intensity Rainfall Acc.

(PPI-Z/MAX-Z) (PPI-V/MAX-V) (PPI-W/MAX-W) (Shear) (SRI) (RAIN1/RAIN24)
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f)
Figure (a to f). IMD Doppler Weather Radar “Colour enhancement Scales” for
various products as mentioned below:
Digital data sets allow specific colours to be displayed for specific bands of dBZ value. This allows relatively easy
visualization of the image details. This process is called colour enhancement and is used with many digital images
including the satellite imagery. Figure (a) to (f) are the colour enhancement scale used by the IMD Doppler Weather
Radar Network for some important reflectivity and velocity products. For reflectivity hotter colours (dark orange and
red or combination of these) are used for stronger returns while cooler colours (blues and greens combinations) are
used with weaker returns. All IMD Doppler Weather Radar display are using uniform colour scale for uniformity of all
radar products for easy for interpretation. The following table-4.4 shows the approximate rainfall intensity w.r.t.
colours and levels as a general view.
Approximate Rainfall Rates

NOTE : These values can be used as a general guide lines & may vary.
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3.6. Meteorological Products Displayed on IMD Website
3.6.1. PPI-Z product
The Base Reflectivity Products are the plot of the energy backscattered to the radar during a single Elevation Scan also
known as PPI-Display or PPI Products.. It shows the distribution of the selected data parameter on a constant
elevation angle. This is a display of echo intensity (reflectivity) measured in dBZ. The IMD DWR base reflectivity
Products (images) are available at three different radar "tilt" angles, 0.5°, 1.0°, and 2.0°. The maximum range the PPI is
user selectable, however as much as range is exceeded the product will show less reflectivity (intensity of the target)".
The short range" base reflectivity product of approx. 250km from the radar location is showing more accurate results,
but this view will not display echoes signatures more than the distance of 250km, even though precipitation may be
occurring at greater distances. PPI products can be generated from 50 km to 500 km range but accuracy of data will be
decreased with increasing range.
A constant elevation surface is extracted and converted to an output image. The displayed range is the slant range.
PPI-Display
Usage
• As an aid in the analysis of meteorological events.

• Primary use is for surveillance as well as a detailed interpretation on a storm-by-storm basis.
• The sensitivity of the radar allows the detection of ice crystals, some as cirri form and mid-level clouds. The range
of detection is dependent on the ice crystal and snowflake composition of the cloud. Stratocumulus clouds will
often contain precipitation aloft as raindrops or ice crystals and snowflakes, or both, large enough to be detected
by the DWR.
• Stratus (and fog) usually will not be detected due to small droplet structure.
• Precipitations events can be monitored as they are evolve, develop or dissipate by observations of reflectivity
patterns.
• Moisture or turbulent layers, or both, can be observed from backscatter from refractivity fluctuations.
• The evolution of the planetary boundary layer can be monitored from the backscatter from the refractivity
structure or particulates (e.g., insects).
• Horizontal rolls and the evolution of cloud streets at the top of the planetary boundary layer can be monitored.
The depth of the planetary boundary layer can be monitored during a diurnal cycle.
• Features such as the bright band may be observed.
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Applications
• Observe precipitation intensity, movement, and trends.

• Evaluate environmental conditions and meteorological characteristics such as inversions or moisture layers,
especially in the Clear Air Mode.
• Identify ice cloud layers and even very light precipitations characteristics.
• Identify and locate the freezing/melting level.
• To observe and track for identification of non-precipitation phenomena such as birds, bats, insects, smoke,
volcanic ash, chaff, etc.
• Weak returns from refractive index gradients and small particulates such as insects reveal many characteristics of
the boundary layer.
• Determine the location and motion of wind shear lines and boundaries such as gust fronts, synoptic fronts, sea
breezes, and wind-shifts of all kinds.
• Determine significant convective storm structural features such as Weak Echo Regions (WER), Bounded Weak
Echo Region (BWER), hook echoes, and even evidence for Rear Flank Downdraft (RFD) existence. Line Echo Wave
Patterns (LEWP) and squall lines can be identified.
Limitations
• Data level values cannot be changed.

• Weak returns are not detected in Precipitation Mode.
• Residual ground and point clutter, and AP can contaminate data.
• Discrete elevation sampling of any Volume scan limits echo sampling only to the scanned elevation angles. Areas
between non-contiguous beams and above the highest beam elevation are not sampled at all.
• Chaff echoes are often difficult to distinguish from precipitation echoes.
• Beam broadening with increasing ranges limits detection of features that are small compared to the beam width.
This is referred to as “aspect ratio” or the ratio of the beam width to the feature size. Beam blocking is possible
on lower elevation angles by nearby high-rise buildings or orographic features such as mountains.
3.6.2. Planned Position Indicator (PPI-V)
Overview
The PPI-V is planned position indicator velocity data. Using the Doppler Theory, the radar uses a Doppler Shift to
determine the velocity of a reflector. In this product, a single elevation angle is scanned, and the velocity of the
reflectors is returned. Negative values indicate reflectors moving towards the radar, while positive values indicate
reflectors moving away from the radar. It should be noted that the further the radar beam extends from the radar, the
higher it's elevation, thus it should report higher velocity values as winds are generally stronger at higher altitudes.
Fig. 4 (b). PPI product of velocity from Doppler Weather Radar Paradeep
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Winds tangential to radar beam are shown as non-moving (white color). Negative value (Blue … White) of velocity
shows that the winds are approaching the radar site. Positive value (White … Red) of velocity shows that the winds are
moving away from the radar site.
Usage of Base Velocity
The PPI-V Product is basically used to determine the Wind Speed and Wind Direction of the movement of the system.
It is an aid for the characterization of velocities in meteorological events. The high spatial resolution and largest
number of data levels of this product enables detail detection of meteorological events like TVS/Mesocyclones,
Microbursts, Storm kinematic structure, Gust fronts, Boundaries, Algorithm validation/quality control and Non-
meteorological returns. Therefore this product is basically an aid to determine the wind flow structure and shear
recognition of the atmosphere on various scales, local wind field characteristics and detection of location of tornadic
circulations mesocyclones, and other atmospheric vortices.
Limitations
• Range folding may obscure data.
• Improper de-aliasing may result in erroneous velocity values.
• Product data file size is very large.
• Velocity aliasing can mask real velocities or shears.
• Velocities may exceed product data levels or even the signal processing specified velocity data levels.
3.6.3. MAX-Z (Maximum Reflectivity) Product
Overview
MAX Z is a maximum display of reflectivity data. After the radar has made a series of scans at different elevations,
known as a volume scan, the maximum reflectivity values are returned to create this product. Thus, it shows us, the
maximum reflectivity value for each pixel coordinate. To determine height, cross sections are included in the image.
The cross section at the top of the image is taken is on a west to east axis, and the cross section on the right is on a
north to south axis. The product is based on 10 angles volume scan TASK and is calculated by first constructing a series
of CAPPI’s to span the selectable layer, and then determining the maxima of reflectivity for the horizontal and two
vertical projections East–West and North–South. Note, that the radar cannot see all the way to the surface of the
earth, hence the curved boundaries at the bottom of the side panels are shown.
The Maximum Product takes a polar volume raw data set, converts it to a Cartesian volume, generates three partial
images and combines them to the displayed image. The height and the distance between two Cartesian layers are
user definable. The partial images are:
 A top view of the highest measured values in Z-direction. This image shows the highest measured value for each
vertical column, seen from the top of the Cartesian volume.
 A north-south view of the highest measured values in Y - direction. This image is appended above the top view
and shows the highest measured value for each horizontal line seen from north to south.
 An east-west view of the highest measured values in X - direction. This image is appended to the right of the top
view and shows the highest measured value for each horizontal column seen from east to west.
Use
The MAX product provides an easy-to-interpret presentation of the echo height and intensity in a single display. It is
especially useful for depicting areas of severe weather. This single product provides distribution of parameters
measured by DWR in three dimensional spaces.This product is very useful to the forecasters.
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Fig. MAX-Z product from Doppler Weather Radar. Provides location as well as height of clouds
3.6.4. Volume Velocity Processing (VVP-2) wind profile:
Overview
VVP is the volume velocity processing product. This product comes from a volume scan of velocity data. VVP is a wind
barb display of the horizontal wind velocity and direction in a vertical column above the radar site. In this product,
north is oriented directly to the top of the image. The VVP or VVP-2 product displays wind velocity profile over the
radar station. Wind velocities (speed direction are calculated at different vertical layers and are displayed in the form
wind barbs. A Doppler radar can only measure the component of wind either towards or away from the radar. This is
called the “radial wind.” However, by looking at the wind over all azimuths around a full circle, the average wind
speed and direction can be determined.
The VVP (2) displays the horizontal wind velocity and the wind direction in a vertical column above the radar site.
These quantities are derived from a volume raw data set with velocity data. A linear wind field model is used to derive
the additional information from the measured radial velocity data. The algorithm calculates velocity and wind
direction for a set of equidistant layers. A column of wind barbs shows velocity and direction for a time step,
subsequent columns show the wind profile for subsequent VVP (2) product generations.
Fig. 7. VVP2 product. It provides vertical wind profile over DWR station
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Use
• The VVP product can compute the vertical velocity, deformation and axis of dilatation of the wind field and the
mean reflectivity profile above the radar.
• Time versus height profile plots for periods of one to six hours can be generated allowing the user to keep track
of significant changes due to advection or other significant meteorological mechanisms.
• The VVP product provides a timely determination of the boundary layer wind profile.
Limitations
• Needs sufficient data points.

• May be unreliable in disturbed environments.
• Large flocks of migrating birds may produce anomalous wind data.
3.6.5. Surface Rainfall Intensity (SRI)
Overview
Surface rainfall intensity product displays rainfall rate in mm/s. It can be used as input into the RAIN1 product, to get
the best possible estimates of accumulated precipitation even at longer ranges from the radar. The SRI generates an
image of the rainfall intensity in a user selectable surface layer with constant height above ground. The product
provides instantaneous values of rainfall intensity. The estimated values of reflectivity are converted to SRI by using
b
Z=AR relationship (Marshall et al. (1947) where R is the rainfall intensity and A and b are constants. The values of A &
b vary from season to season and place to place.
Vertical reflectivity profile is the most important source of error in radar rainfall measurements in cool and moderate
climate. Upper parts of precipitating clouds give typically weaker echo than the cloud base, except near melting layer
where the echo is much stronger. Thus a correction is needed to estimate surface rainfall intensity.
SRI allows the user to apply local knowledge and provides several ways to input information of the actual reflectivity
profile, as well as methods to make educated first guesses. It distinguishes convective cases from large scale
precipitation, and applies the correction only to the later; while for convective precipitation the value of the lowest
clutter free bin is presented. The reflectivity profile and melting level estimation will not be perfect, but they will
improve the rainfall estimates as compared to performing no correction.
The typical corrections obtained will be of the order –10 dBZ to +5 dBZ (in mm/h scale up to factor of 4) depending on
the melting level altitude, distance from radar and the lowest elevation angle.
Fig. 8. SRI Product generated by DWR Chennai. Highest rainfall intensity observed in eyewall region
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Use
• SRI is mainly used as an input product to generate rain1 (hourly rain accumulation) product.
• It gives the rough idea of rainfall at surface level from the cloud at a particular location in coming next hour.By
defining the “catchment areas” with the range of SRI product, flood effected catchments can be identified.
3.6.6. Precipitation Accumulation (PAC)
Fig. 9. Precipitation Accumulation Product
The PAC product is a second level product. It takes SRI products of the same type as input and accumulates the rainfall
rates in a user-definable time period (look back time). The display shows the colour coded rainfall amount in [mm] for
the defined time period. The display is similar to SRI product.
3.7. GIS Products
3.7.1. Integrated Display of Weather and Thunderstorm Warnings
An interactive GIS webpage is available for visualisation of real time lightning flashes overlaid along with several other
weather observations such as radar images, radar wind, satellite images etc. as shown below.
Current extreme weather observations with radar & lightning on Web-GIS platform
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The product displays user selectable layers such as Lightning layer, Radar Reflectivity layer, Satellite data, Radar radial
winds and State & District boundaries on a web-GIS platform. More than one layer can be selected simultaneously as
per user requirements.
Cyclone forecast and observed track have also been plotted on web-GIS platform along with cone of uncertainty as
shown for Cyclone Amphan
Among various applications, user can find out azimuth bearing as well as distance between two points on map (as
shown in Fig. below) between any two user selectable points on the map.
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3.7.2. All India Mosaic Product
Radar Mosaic images are available for whole India on website enabling user for visualizing all DWRs images on India
map along with radar coverage range as can be seen.
In the central server, IRIS software converts the Gematronik format and BEL format data in to IRIS format and uses
this data in conjunction with the IRIS format data from Metstar radars for generating National MOSAIC image. The
Doppler Weather Radar data of different radars can be processed simultaneously and a product called MOSAIC image
can be generated. The Radar Mosaic images are available for national as well as regional level at the url
https://internal.md.gov.in.
3.8. Guidance for Bulletins from DWR Stations
a) Cyclone Radar Bulletin(CRB)
i. Strength of weather radar, as a cyclone tracking and prediction tool, lies in its capability to provide accurate,
frequent and high-resolution observations even when the cyclones are situated as much as 300 km away
(roughly about 20 hours lead time in case of cyclones heading coast from deep sea). As the cyclones
approach closer the fineness and accuracy of data improve further. At range as close as 100 km, accuracy,
resolution, and richness of radar data is superior to that from any other source.
ii. During Cyclones, DWRs issue Cyclone bulletins to IMD HQ every hourly or at less frequency depending on the
intensity of cyclone and detection by radar. The bulletin includes the eye location, intensity of cyclone,
maximum reflectivity in wall cloud region, location of eye region, maximum radial wind velocity etc.
iii. Cyclone Radar bulletin (CRB) is an important document which is issued during tracking of cyclones from Radar
stations. The format of the CRB is given at Annexure-I sample cyclone bulletin issued by DWR Goa for Cyclone
Nisarga is attached in Annexure-II.
iv. The issuing of CRB should commence when the eye of cyclone is visible in any of the main products/eye is
within Radar range or as decided by the officer in charge whichever is earlier.
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v. The CRB should contain the details of cyclone obtained from analysis of various different products.
vi. CRB should be issued every hourly through email only to the stakeholders within IMD, However, the
frequency of bulletin can be increased to every 30 minutes as desired by officer in charge/HQ.
vii. In case the velocity values are folded in the Radar products, the bulletin should contain the unfolded
velocities.
viii. The beam height calculation, speed of cyclone movement, direction of cyclone movement and unfolded
velocity can be calculated with the help of Cyclone bulletin tool as mentioned in Annexure llI. And also the
bearing and distances can be ascertained using the GIS webpage.
ix. Once Issue of CRB commences, it can be stopped once the eye of the cyclone goes beyond the range of
Radar/ eye is not visible in the products or as desired by officer in charge.
x. CRB is an internal bulletin intended for use by trained meteorologist, it should not be shared or circulated to
any stakeholders outside IMD.
b) FDP Thunderstorm Bulletins
A FDP (Forecast demonstration project) thunderstorm bulletin is being issued by DWR stations to IMD HQ during Mar-
Jun period with radar based description of current weather conditions over region covered by particular radar.
The objective of FDP bulletin is to understand the genesis, development and propagation of severe thunderstorms. A
sample FDP thunderstorm bulletin is attached as ANNEXURE-IV.
c) Radar weather Reports
Severe weather radar bulletins are issued by DWR stations in case of extreme weather event observed by a particular
DWR.
The bulletin is being issued to IMD HQ and State government authorities. The sample radar weather report is given as
ANNEXURE-III.
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ANNEXURE-I
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ANNEXURE-II
CYCLONE BULLETIN
Time: 02/06/2020 18:30 IST

1. Name of the Station DWR GOA
2. Date & Time of observation (UTC) 02/06/2020 1300 Z
3. Name of Cyclone NISARGA

4. Information about the Eye of the Cyclone
a)Is the Eye Visible Yes (Visible from 1100Z)
b)Shape of the Eye Elongated Circle
c)Diameter of the Eye (km) 21.1 km (Approx)
d)Estimation of centre of the cyclone based on 16.3024 N & 71.2409 E (Approx)
Eye/Spiral band observation Dist:- 290.1 km from the radar.
e)Echo top (20 dBZ level) of rain bearing clouds
around the cyclone within 100 km radius
f) Maximum radar reflectivity (dBZ) in eye wall and 27.00 dBZ, 8.9 km (Height),
Spiral band region, its height (km) and position Azimuth:291.4
(azimuth and distance from the radar) Distance: 319.5 km
g) Maximum reflectivity at any other area (spiral/ 47.0 dBZ / 0.3 km(Height) / 280.0 deg/ 19.5 km
streamers etc) Max ref/height/bearing/range
h) Maximum radial velocity in eye wall and Spiral 11.38 mps / 4.4 km / 282.5 deg./ 243.3 km From
band region observed (mps), its height (km) and its Radar
position (azimuth and distance from the Radar)
i) Maximum velocity in any other area (spiral / 26.56 mps / 0.9 km / 339.8 deg./ 93.4 km From
streamers / rain shields etc) Radar
5. Tendency of the Cyclone
a. Intensity(Increasing/Decreasing) Slight Intensification
b. Duration for which the information on 1 hour (For the period from 1200 UTC of
movement pertains to 02/06/2020 to 1300 UTC of 02/06/2020)
c. Direction of Movement Northwards
d. Estimated speed of Movement 19.47 kmph
6. Any other Significant Feature Rainfall very likely at a few places over North Goa
and South Goa district of Goa, Uttar Kannada
district of Karnataka, and Ratnagiri & Sindhudurg
districts of Maharashtra.
7. Confidence Good
75
ANNEXURE-III
76
ANNEXURE-IV
Description of Convective Activity at DWR AGARTALA during past 24 hour sending at 0300 UTC 0f 30-06-2020
Radar Date Time Organization of the Formation Remarks Associated Districts

Station interval ofcells (Isolated single w.r.t radar severe affected
name observation cells/multiple cells/ station and weather if
(UTC) convective regions/ Direction of any
squall lines) with movement
height of 20 dBZ echo
top and maximum
reflectivity
1) Multiple cells found Cells found Cell dissipated Rain Tripura,
over Bangladesh and about 20-250 over Bangladesh,
Tripura at 0522 UTC km in all Bangladesh, Mizoram and
290302 with height of 12km at direction of Tripura, South Assam
- 1022 UTC and DWR Agartala Mizoram and
292359 maximum reflectivity and moves in south Assam
50dBZ at 0952UTC. North East at 1502 UTC.
direction with
speed
AGARTALA 30/06/2020 25kmph.
2) Multiple cells found Cells found Cell still Rain Bangladesh

over Bangladesh at about 100-200 persists over and
1922 UTC with height km in N, NE Bangladesh Meghalaya
of 12km at 2322 UTC direction of and
and maximum DWR Agartala Meghalaya at
reflectivity 43dBZ at and moves in 2352 UTC.
2222UTC. North East
direction with
speed
20kmph.
Multiple
cells found Cell still
over persists over
300000 Bangladesh Cells found about 100- Bangladesh
- and 200 km in N, NE and Rain Bangladesh
300302 Meghalaya direction of DWR Meghalaya at and
at 0002 UTC Agartala and moves in 2352 UTC. Meghalaya
with height North East direction
of 11km at with speed 20kmph.
0012 UTC
and
maximum
reflectivity
45dBZ at
0012UTC.
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ANNEXURE-V
Severe Weather Warning based on DWR observation
Name of issuing radar station Doppler Weather Radar Mumbai

Geo-coordinates of issuing station (Lat, Long, Alt.) Lat – 18˚54'04", Long-72˚48'32"
Height AMSL – 3.22 meters.
Date & time of issue in UTC (yyyyMMddhhmm) 202007161000UTC
Nature of severe weather event expected TS activity with Heavy Rain
i Location (sectors w.r.t the radar and mean range 1. 1 1. All around the station upto 150 Km range. NW
in km) sector
2. TS activity with heavy rain.
ii Approx. Areal Extent (sq. km.)
iii Vertical extent (20dBz Echo Top) 6-15 km in NW sector & 6-9 Km in all around
iv Direction of motion (bearing w. r. t radar towards NE
which storm move)
v Speed of motion (m/s) 3-9 m/s in SW sector & 9-15 m/s in NW Sector
vi Tendency (past half to one hour) Growing / Mature & Dissipating
Mature / Dissipating
vii Max. Ref. Factor (dBz) 26-40 dBz
viii Max. Radial velocity (m/s) 15 m/s
ix Max. wind shear (radial and/or azimuthal) -------
m/s/km
x Special features observed if any (TVS / Hail / Bow -------
echo / BWER / hook echo / Micro burst / meso
cyclone…)
Districts / Talukas likely to be impacted with lead time if Coast of Alibag, Raigad, Haranai, Dapoli, Mahabaleshwar.
possible NW Sector of Arabian Sea, Mumbai City & Suburb, Thane,
Kalyan, Palghar.
Description of the likely severe weather ---------
Warning validity ----------
Remarks ----------
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Public Weather Services
Chapter 4

4.1. Introduction
Severe weather phenomena have life threatening potential depending upon their intensity, duration and persistence
over any area hence timely dissemination of forecast and warnings related to the same to the stake holders is
essential to support mitigation work. Providing weather related services and products to the public thus assume great
significance. The importance of these products also lie in the inherent dynamics leading to continuously changing
weather patterns and the impact it have on a spectrum of human activities. In the context of the socio economic
impact a disastrous weather event can have in an agro-based country like India, an efficient Public Weather Services is
the most essential requirement of the time. However, the weather information must be communicated and
disseminated in a time bound manner to the users and general public, using whatever means of communication
available. It therefore, becomes the most important function of every weather services.
The public weather services (PWS) of the department get critically monitored and evaluated by the media, general
public and Government especially during severe weather events. A true assessment of the performance of national
weather service can be derived from its importance felt by the user community and for this purpose the public
weather services of the department has to be very strong and user friendly. When people find that utilization of
weather information, forecasts and warnings, along with climatological and hydrological data can significantly improve
their safety and protect their property, public as well as media support for the weather services become much
stronger. There is much to be gained from a scientifically competent public servant working in tandem with the major
stake holders. For the successful organization of mega events, a robust, efficient and accurate Public Weather Service
System has to be put into practice .Weather forecast products like that of rainfall, maximum and minimum
temperatures, winds, relative humidity etc and other indirect products like heat index, comfort index, chill factor etc
would be of paramount importance to the public, officials as well as NGOs.
National Weather Services all over the world are now becoming increasingly aware of the need for an efficient PWS
component for effective communication of all weather related information for benefit to the various sectors of
national economy. Recognizing this importance and the need for world - wide coordination of such activities, the
World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) had established a PWS programme in the year 1994 to assist all National
Meteorological and Hydrological services in this endeavor. Lot of technical material and guidelines has since been
generated by the WMO in coordination with the representatives of all major National Weather Services of the world.
An efficient PWS not only increases the outreach of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, but it also
helps in improving the public image of the National Weather Service. India Meteorological Department, therefore has
established a dedicated PWS component as an integral part of its service with the sole objective of improving
outreach to the public and user agencies.
4.2. Requirement for Revision of SOP
After the recent modernization of observing and forecasting systems of IMD, the weather observations viz., Synop,
Pilot, AWS, Buoys, satellite and radar images are available on a single platform namely Synergie on real time basis.
These data can be viewed, analysed digitally and interpreted within a short period of time. This facility is available at
present in the national and regional level and in two to three other forecasting centres. Weather products (in both
Text and Graphical format) can be generated and disseminated from Meteofactory, a modernized PWS platformis
available alongwith at selected forecasting centres. Thus generation of customized weather forecasts/warnings and
reports in text form as well as in graphical form have become possible, to meet the user requirements. In those
centres where this facility is not there, the district forecast and warning (with colour code) are prepared in tabular
form.
Earlier, dissemination of the weather related messages to the concerned users were done using telefax and e mail.
However with the advancements in mass communication, use of social media and bulk SMS also have been put into
use in dissemination of weather forecast and warnings. In addition to this, user friendly website also has been created
in the recent past in which the forecasts & warnings of different spatial and temporal scales are uploaded and
updated.
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Thus there have been considerable changes in the preparation, presentation and dissemination of forecast and
warning related information by the forecasting centres due to which visible improvements had been there in the
public weather services of the department and there is scope for further improvement also.
The facilities available with the present PWS with the scope for further improvements are brought forward in this
document.
4.3. Major Objectives of PWS
• Providing customized weather services to the users.

• Improving early warning services and quality of related products and ensure their timely dissemination to the
end users on routine basis for the safety and protection of life, livelihoods and property.
• Deliver warnings and information on climate extremes to government authorities for planning and decision-
making on public safety and cost-efficiency in all social and economic activities affected by weather.
• Engage in capacity building, awareness programme and preparedness activities to help citizens make the best
use of forecasts and warning information available to them.
• Improve outreach of National Weather Service and related products.
• Identification of new end users / stake holders and their additional requirements;
• Promoting the applications of the science of meteorology, climatology, hydrology and related technology to
improve products and services through exhibitions, field visits by school/ colleges, disaster managers and display
of posters.
• Engaging in demonstration projects, exchange visits and collaborative activities concerned to PWS with
government agencies.
• Establishing an interactive channel of constant feedback from the end users who would help us to re-validate our
products for further improvement in its quality.
4.4. Major Stake holders
• Government (both Central and State) organizations

• Electronic and print media;
• Industries/other autonomous bodies
• NGOs
• Farmers,Fishermen and General Public
• Research Institutes and Universities.
4.5. Main Products/Activities under PWS System
• Seamless flow of current weather, forecast and warning information from forecasting centres and special cells to
end users to be ensured. These forecast and warnings will be issued in subdivisional scale by National Weather
Forecasting Centre (NWFC) whereas Regional Weather Forecasting Centres (RWFCs) and State Weather Forecasting
Centres (SWFCs) issue district level forecasts. The forecast will be issued for five days with an outlook for subsequent
two days. In addition to this, nowcasts are issued form the RWFCs/SWFCs related to severe weather developments for
their area of responsibility at least in every three hours. All these forecast and warning products are disseminated by
different modes of communication to the user community and are uploaded in the website. The typical work flow in
PWS is given in Figure 4.1.
Weather Special cells

information
PWS
Media Stake Holders
SOP Groups
Figure 4.1. A typical work flow of PWS

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• While issuing the warning, suitable colour code will be used to bring out the impact of the severe weather
expected and to signal the disaster managers about the course of action to be taken with respect to the impending
disaster weather event. While NWFC issues the warnings in both text and graphical form in the subdivision scale for
the country as a whole, the RWFCs/SWFCs issue colour coded warning in tabular form in the district level. The colour
code used in weather warning is given in Figure 4.2. Examples of the All India weather warnings issued from NWFC in
text and pictorial form (with colour code) are given in Appendix 1(A) and 1(B) respectively and the warning issued in
tabular form with colour code from SWFC, Bubaneshwaris given Appendix 2 as examples.
WARNING ( TAKE ACTION)
ALERT (BE PREPARED)
WATCH (BE UPDATED)
NO WARNING (NO ACTION)
Figure 4.2. Colour code used in Weather warning
• For capital cities, impact based forecast along with guidelines to the public should be provided as and when a
severe weather event is expected to strike the city and the same needs to be updated frequently till the cessation of
the event. Once the event is over a dewarning message needs to be issued. These are done by RWFCs and SWFCs for
their concerned areas of responsibility.
• A Weekly weather report bringing out the major weather features experienced during the previous week,
analysis of the weather systems which were responsible for the weather realised, spatial and intensity of the rainfall
and temperature scenario of the week, weekly and seasonal realised rainfall statistics and forecast and warning for
the next week are prepared and disseminated to all the users and uploaded in the website at the beginning of every
meteorological week. While NWFC prepares this report for the country as a whole, RWFC/SWFC prepares the same
for their concerned areas of responsibility.
• Also a bulletin on current weather status and outlook for next two weeks bringing out the significant weather
features of the past week, main synoptic situations and large scale features prevailing, weekly as well as seasonal
realised rainfall statistics and the weather outlook for the next two weeks are prepared and disseminated to all the
users and uploaded in the website, in the beginning of every meteorological week. In this case also, NWFC prepares
the same for the country as a whole whereas RWFCs/SWFCs prepare the same for their areas of responsibility.
• Availability of historical data bank of climatological information of different meteorological parameters in an

easily usable and regular format for the end users needs to be there. Mean Maximum, Mean Minimum, lowest and
highest values of maximum and minimum temperatures realized along with the date, highest and lowest values of
twenty four hours accumulated rainfall with date, total number of rainy days etc. has to be available in this data bank
with respect to month, season and year and also with respect to location, district, subdivision, state and for the
country as a whole in the spatial scale.
• The current weather situations as well as the forecast of the weather expected needs to be briefed to the press
and media on routine basis so as to have its proper reporting. While briefing the media and press, the latest weather
bulletin issued needs to be taken as the reference. Briefing can be done in English and Hindi in the national level
however, the regional language can also be of used at the regional/state level for better understanding of the masses.
• When significant weather events are expected to occur within the forecast period, issuance of press release
related to the same with update as and when required is preferred. At the time of severe weather occurrence, press
conference to brief the press and media about the event and issue of special weather bulletins related to the event
will be beneficial to the user community and stake holders.
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• At RWFC/SWFC levels, audio/video capsules on the current and impending weather scenario of about two-
minute duration, preferably in regional languages, should be made available to the media, disaster managers and
other stake holders on daily basis through website and social media platform.
• Once in a week, similar audio/video capsule depicting the realised weather of the past week and the medium
and extended range forecast for the next two weeks can be made available through the same platforms. While NWFC
do the same for the country as a whole, RWFCs/SWFCs can do the same for their concerned area of responsibility.
• Monthly Weather bulletin should be prepared at the end of every month giving brief description and analysis of
the realised weather of that month and giving weather outlook for the successive month based on the latest extended
range forecast products available. This bulletin should be prepared and circulated to all concerned and also be
uploaded in the website within a week from the commencement of the next month. Here also, NWFC prepare the
same for the country as a whole whereas RWFC/SWFC prepares the same for their area of responsibility.
• Any achievement, (viz. increased forecast accuracy, correct prediction of a disastrous weather event, any new
initiative etc.) should be proactively highlighted through audio/video capsules, press release, media briefing, briefing
the disaster managers and other stake holders.
• In case of occurrence of any disastrous weather event over any area, post event reports for that need to be
prepared within one week by the concerned RWFC/SWFC and it is to be submitted to NWFC. The report will include
impact assessment forthe hazardous phenomena (like cyclone, tornado/thunder squall very severe TS, cloudburst,
urban water logging disrupting normal life due to heavy precipitation) and will mainly consist of the meteorological
analysis of the event, historical aspect of occurrence of such extreme events, impact analysis, details of the loss of life
& property and a review of services extended in respect of the event. NWFC will review the report and after
incorporating modifications if any, the same will be submitted to the Ministry, NDMA etc for their reference.
4.6. Functioning of PWS
The functioning of the PWS is given in Figure 4.3 below.
General public
Control Room, NDMA,
Doordarshan and Secretary,
MoES
Website, TV,
radio, SMS …
State Disaster
Management
Authorities, State
Control Room, District
SWFC Collectors, AIR and
Doordarshan
HQ Delhi Forecaster
RWFC
Forecaster
Figure 4.3. Functioning of PWS
The functioning of PWS involves forecasters in the national, regional and state levels, national and state disaster
management authorities, media as well as general public.
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4.6.1. Homogeneity in the contents of the Forecast and Warnings
• Based upon the discussion and decision made through video conference with RWFCs/SWFCs, the National
Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC) at IMD Headquarters, New Delhi issues the main All India Weather Bulletin for 36
meteorological sub-divisions of the country around noon on daily basis and the same is updated another three times
within a day. This bulletin more or less serve as a guidance bulletin for the subordinate offices and based upon that
bulletin, the Regional Meteorological Centres (RWFCs) and State Meteorological Centres (SWFCs) issue forecast and
warning in the district level. NWFC also issues nowcast guidance bulletin for the severe weather elements like
thunderstorm etc. based on which the RWFCs and the SWFCs issue nowcast in every three hours or as and when
required related to severe weather phenomena and update the same in the dedicated web page for nowcast in the
IMD website.
• The final weather products are prepared after discussion at length through video conference amongst NWFC,
RWFCs and SWFCs forecasters. The video/audio conferencing is meant for removing the discrepancies in weather
forecasting services especially during the occurrence of extreme weather events and have homogeneity in the
contents.
• The product is designed and finalized incorporating suitable colour codeetc. specific to the needs of end users in
consultation with the chief forecaster and then integrated into the system for dissemination to the designated end
users.
• PWS cell prepares and disseminates customized products (forecasts/warnings) to media, disaster managers and
other Government officials. These are also posted on IMD website and are made available through social media
platform. It is to be checked and ensured that, dissemination of the forecast for a particular area from all the three
levels are uniform in its contents to avoid creating confusion for general public.
4.6.2. Mode of Dissemination of Forecast & Warnings under PWS
Dissemination of weather forecast and warning were being carried through e mails and telefax earlier. In addition to
that, the latest facilities of communication are also being used nowadays to disseminate the messages to the
users.The various modes of communication used in PWS are given below.
i) Email : Weather forecast and warning in both text and pictorial form are being sent to Central & State government
organisations and authorities, national & state disaster management agencies, media, other stake holders etc by
National Weather Forecasting Center (NWFC) as well as by Regional Meteorological Centers (RMCs) and
Meteorological Centers (MCs). For this purpose the e mail addresses of all concerned are maintained in the
forecasting centres which are updated from time to time.
ii) SMS : Weather forecast and warnings especially agromet advisories and nowcasts related to thunderstorms etc. are
disseminated to the registered users through SMS facility on mobile phones by different forecasting offices.
Dissemination of these messages through SMS is carried out through Kisan Portal launched by Ministry of Agriculture
and Farmers’ Welfare and through private companies under Public Private Partnership (PPP) mode. This facility is
widely used by farmers to get guidance on farming operations. Also Doppler Weather Radar centres across the
country use SMS facility to issue SMS, related to the development of severe convection in their vicinity.
iii) Use of social media in dissemination : Dissemination of Weather forecast and warning through social media are
being encouraged nowadays due to their wide publicity. Accordingly, all the offices of IMD have opened their
facebook and twitter accounts to use the same for PWS. NWFC uploads All India forecasts and colour coded warning
in India Meteorological Department facebook page (https://www.facebook.com/India.Meteorological. Department )
and India Meteorological Department twitter page (https://twitter.com/Indiametdept) on regular basis. A weather
capsule consisting of sub-division wise colour coded weather forecast & warnings, animation of satellite imageries,
major synoptic features, temperatures of major cities and maximum & minimum temperatures of mega cities, highest
maximum and lowest minimum temperatures recorded on the day across the country is being uploaded on India
Meteorological Department youtube page (https://www.youtube.com/ channel/UC_qxTReoq07UVARm87CuyQw?
view_as=subscriber) on regular basis in addition to its uploading on earlier mentioned platforms.These forecast
products are disseminated through WhatsApp groups created with media personnel, disaster managers etc. also. In
83
similar manner, RMCs and MCs have created their own facebook and twitter account and have formed WhatsApp
groups so as to disseminate the district level forecast, colour coded warnings and nowcasts pertaining to their area of
responsibility.
iv) Website : IMD offices in the national, regional and state level maintains websites with dedicated pages for weather
forecasting services which contain both static as well as dynamic pages. The static pages contain general information
about the weather forecasting services etc. for information and reference whereas the dynamic pages can be used to
upload the latest forecast products for reference and use by all those interested. The website also contains dedicated
pages for different services so as to upload weather information, forecast and reports related to that like monsoon,
cyclone etc. Language used in these websites is generally English however some of the Regional Meteorological
Centres/Meteorological Centres have websites in regional language also. In the national level, different products and
bulletins including forecast and warning in the text and pictorial forms issued by NWFC are being uploaded on India
meteorological Department’s national website (https://mausam.imd.gov.in/) by the centre and the same is updated
as and when required. Similarly, RWFCs and SWFCs upload and update the weather information for their respective
area of responsibility in their website. The link ‘Departmental Website’ in the main page of the national website gives
the links for the websites of other offices including regional and state level offices. Statistics show that these websites
are widely visited and referred by general public, national & state disaster management authority, central & state
government agencies, media and other stake holders.
v) Bulletin for All India Radio and Doordarshan : Bringing out the major features of realised weather, forecast and
warnings, regular bulletins are issued to Doordarshan & All India Radio for broadcast purpose. The weather capsule
mentioned in the previous section is also sent to Door Darshan on daily basis to be used for the display of weather
information in DD news. The national bulletin is issued by NWFC whereas state level bulletins are issued by concerned
RWFCs/SWFCs.
vi) Telefax : Weather forecast & warning especially those related to cyclone warnings are sent by fax also to State and
Central Government authorities in addition to other modes of communication. VVIP forecasts issued by NWFC are also
sent by telefax on dedicated fax numbers. Record of the telefax numbers are maintained in the forecasting centres
which are verified and updated from time to time, especially before the commencement of cyclone season.
vii) Press &Media Briefing : Press and Media briefing about observed and impending weather are regularly done by
senior officers of the forecasting centre. While NWFC officers give briefing on All India Weather, senior officers of
RWFCs and SWFCs brief the weather scenario; both observed and expected, under their area of responsibility. While
briefing press and media, the information provided should be with reference to the details of the latest weather
bulletin issued.
viii) Mobile App : India Meteorological Department has prepared mobile App for the use by general public to get
latest weather information on their mobile. The mobile App ‘Meghdoot’ is meant for Agromet Advisory Services and
it can be used by farmers for weather based farm management. It provides weather forecast, weather summary and
crop advisory to farmers. The Mobile App ‘DAMINI’ developed by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune gives
details of realtime observation and forecast of lightning in close proximity .It also provides guidelines on lightning risk
reduction while being outdoor. Recently, in May 2020, IMD has hosted seven of its services viz. current weather,
rainfall information, nowcast, city forecast, tourism forecast, colour coded severe weather warning and cyclone
warning in the Unified Mobile Application for New-Age Governace (UMANG), which is an all-in-one, single, unified,
secure, multi channel, multi platform, multi lingual, multi service mobile App of Government of India. In addition
th
these, IMD’s mobile App ‘MAUSAM’ has been launched on 27 July, 2020 and the same is available in both App
store and Play store at present.
4.7. Requirements for Efficient PWS
• Clear cut policy on the working domain, responsibility and dissemination of information to media and end users
are needed for PWS. For this purpose, the PWS related work can be classified into three levels. The first level has
to deal with the preparation of observation, climatology and forecast related products. The second level has to
deal with explanation of the observed weather and forecast, reply to specific queries and give bytes/ interviews
to electronic and print media in addition to handling the responsibilities and providing guidance to the first level.
Level 3 has to deal with briefing related to weather forecasts, panel discussions, decision making, reply to high
ranking officials, VIPs etc. in addition to handling and coordinating Level 1 and 2 activities.
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• Proper database of the all the end-users and all major stake holders is to be maintained at all forecasting offices
and the same needs to be updated from time to time.
• Flow of information to and from PWS needs to be well structured.
• User friendly language rather than highly technical wording to be used while communicating with the users.
• While preparing the forecast products, more thrust to be given on graphical contents rather than textual
contents and colours must be used for the warnings to stand out clearly from the usual day to day forecast.
• A strict time schedule needs to be followed while issuing the general forecast / warning; preferably it should be
synchronized with the broadcast time of weather bulltins.
• A multi channel communication network with inbuilt redundancy must be set up to avoid breaking of
communication, especially during severe weather.
• In order to avoid repeated interviews to the media, it is proposed that a media hour should be followed at all the
offices of IMD for daily routine briefings related to normal weather. However, during severe weather events, the
media briefing can be done as per requirements.
• There needs to be continuous review of services extended and a robust feedback mechanism so as to improve
the quality of services.
• A panel of resource persons/experts from operational forecasting and from supporting fields viz. Numerical
Weather Prediction , Climate Change &Global Warming, Satellite Products , Doppler Weather Radar (DWR)
Products needs to be made for taking part in important discussions, interaction with media and attending
parliament sessions.
• Memorandum of Understanding is preferred with the end users especially with the media to avoid misuse /
misinterpretation of information shared with them.
• Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) on different fields of weather are to be prepared and posted on IMD website
for reference by all interested so as to increase awareness.
• Pamphlets related to weather forecasting services needs to be prepared from time to time highlighting the latest
development and achievements and distributed during field visits/exhibitions to increase awareness about the
services.
• Setting up of dedicated network integrated with interactive Weather Display systems at public places and fixed
space in newspaper/ scrolling space in TV channels / Dedicated Weather Channel will help in communicating the
accurate weather information in real time basis.
• Workshop for media and disaster managers should be organized frequently. Basic training is to be organized for
media personals about the meteorological conventions/terminologies so as to educate them.
• Provision of readymade audio-visual capsules to Doordarshan and other electronic media, AIR/FM Radios will
help in avoiding wrong reporting.
• Work related to PWS is currently handled by the operational staff of IMD working in forecasting division, in
addition to their routine work. Dedicated man power or monitoring cell needs to be there for PWS in the
forecasting offices of IMD. Hence creation of PWS cell is advisable in all the forecasting centres for better
coordination and management of PWS related work.
4.8. New Initiatives in PWS
New initiatives like implementation of impact based forecast, introducing Common Alert Protocol in dissemination of
forecasts and warnings, initiatives to increase outreach etc. are being carried out due to which further improvement in
the quality and effectiveness of PWS may become possible. In addition to these, formation of weather watch group
and conduction of Forecast Demonstration Project with the involvement of agencies outside the department is also in
vogue to improve the outreach. Sector specific services are also being encouraged nowadays to demonstrate the
utility of weather services in different fields.
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4.8.1. Implementation of Impact based forecast
Figure 4.4. Risk Matrix for Impact based Forecast
Impact based forecast is given with the intention to project what the weather will do rather than what the weather
will be. The weather forecast and warning products are being prepared with the incorporation of colour code already,
so as to bring out the intensity and impact of the severe weather expected and to signal the disaster managers about
the action to be initiated at their end for mitigation.The impact based forecast is issued with reference to the Risk and
Response matrix given in Figure 4.4.
This matrix is used for selecting proper colour code in warning with respect to any impending severe weather event,
taking into consideration of the probability of its occurrence and the potential impact expected from the event.
In the warnings related to cyclones, the impact based forecast had been introduced long before and thus severe
weather expected during cyclones along with the impact it will have on public life and the guidelines for necessary
action during the occurrence of severe weather are provided in the warning messages. The same pattern of warning
messages had been extended to other severe weather elements like thunderstorm and associated severe weather
phenomena like squall/lightning, heat wave etc. from 2019.For these weather elements, the guidelines prepared in
collaboration with National Disaster Management Authority about the action to be taken had been referred and
utilized while issuing impact based forecast.
From Monsoon season of 2020, impact based forecast for heavy rainfall had been introduced for major cities of the
country. These forecasts are issued by RWFCs and SWFCs for the major cities under their area of responsibility. These
forecasts are issued in four stages. First stage corresponds to heavy rainfall advisory (watch) issued 3 to 5 days in
advance of the expected occurrence of the event and is updated in every twelve hours. In stage 2, heavy rainfall alert
is issued with 1 to 3 days lead period and is updated in every six hours. Stage 3 corresponds to heavy rainfall warning
issued with 12 to 24 hours lead period and is updated in every 1 to 3 hours. Stage 4 corresponds to the warning issued
12 hour prior to the occurrence of maximum rainfall. More details and SOP for this new initiative are separately
available in another chapter this document.
4.8.2. Introduction of Common Alert Protocol in Dissemination of Forecast & Warnings
The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is a standard message format designed for communicationsover any and all
media like television, radio, telephone, fax, highway signs, e-mail, Web sites; about any and all kinds of hazard viz.,
Weather, Fires, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Landslides, Child Abductions, Disease Outbreaks, Air Quality Warnings,
Transportation Problems, Power Outages; to any one viz., the public at large, designated groups like civic authority,
responders, etc. or specific people simultaneously. As per WMO guidelines, the National Weather Services across the
world have to introduce CAP in dissemination of weather messages at the earliest. The main purpose of CAP is to
disseminate timely and meaningful warning information about the possible extreme events or disasters like Flood,
drought, earthquake, volcanoes, landslides, tsunami, cyclone, gas leak, thunderstorm, fire etc. through the same
platform through which information regarding other hazard situations like terror attack, child abductions, disease
outbreaks, air quality warnings, beach closings, transportation problems, power outages etc. are disseminated using
various dissemination mediums such as Indian Telecom Network, Indian Broadcasting network and other media.
National disaster management authority is introducing an Integrated Disaster Management System (IDMS) for
dissemination of all type of warning using CAP and the same will be developed by Centre for Development of
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Telematics(C-DOT). The outline of the system is given in Figure 4.5.The forecast and warnings received from IMD also
will be disseminated through this system. The Standard Operating Procedure for the purpose is already finalized by
Department of Telecommunication, Government of India in consultation with NDMA, all the stake holders and C-DOT.
Figure 4.5. Outline of proposed IDMS of NDMA
Dissemination of weather warnings through this platform using SMS as the output had been tested by C-DOT on
various severe weather occurrences in the recent past and satisfactory results were received. Hence a Pilot project
had been started for the state of Tamil Nadu for dissemination of messages through the system which is in vogue at
present. After successful completion of the same, the facility will be extended to all the states.
In addition to this, utilizing the procedures provided by WMO for implementation of CAP, IMD is independently trying
to incorporate CAP format in dissemination of weather forecast and warning messages on trial basis which also has
shown positive results.
4.8.3. Measures to improve the Outreach
To improve the outreach, joint exercises involving universities / IITs and other government agencies along with IMD
professionals are being undertaken during projects like Forecast Demonstration Project (FDPs).
• At present IMD is having FDPs on different weather phenomena like cyclone, thunderstorm, heat wave, Fog etc.
in which involvement of agencies working in the field of Atmospheric Sciences other than IMD are encouraged and
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their contributions and feed back is utilized in analyzing the phenomena, improving the forecast and warning services
related to those events, preparation of guidelines for public use during such events, carrying out case studies of the
events and their documentation for future reference etc.
• In addition to this, installation of Automatic Weather Stations in schools and involving the students in taking
observations and reporting, extension of familiarization training to teachers etc. are being carried out in order to
educate and familiarize them with the science and practices of weather forecasting.
• IMD is actively participating and providing lectures in the WEBINARS /Workshops/Symposium related with
Meteorological services conducted by National Disaster Management Authority etc. by which the expertise and the
facilities available with IMD and the achievements of the department in the field are getting highlighted. In the
training workshops conducted by National Institute of Disaster Management, visit to NWFC and familiarisation of the
work carried out by the centre is always included as a part of curriculum.
4.8.4. Provision of Sector Specific Services:
Since weather has its impact on almost all the sectors of public utilities, there is large demand for customized weather
products for various sectors. The services of IMD for the sectors like aviation, agriculture, marine activities etc. are
well established. IMD also supports the flood forecasting services of Central Water Commission by providing
hydrological data and quantitative precipitation forecasts for river basins.
In addition to this IMD has extended its services in the recent past to Power, Health, Transport (both road and
railway), urban services etc. and is in the process of improving the observational network to meet the requirements of
these sectors in addition to providing customized weather forecast products through dedicated links. However,
services to these sectors are extended after signing MOU with the agencies concerned.
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Appendix I(A)
All India Weather Warning in text format issued from NWFC
89
Appendix I(B)
All India Weather Warning in pictorial format issued from NWFC
90
Appendix II
District level warning with colour code issued from M.C.(SWFC) Bhubaneshwar
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Chapter 5
Heavy Rainfall Warning Services
5.1. Introduction
India is prone to heavy rainfall nearly all through the year. During monsoon, their frequencies of occurrences are very
high. Study shows, under climate change scenario, the frequency of heavy rainfall is increasing in recent years (Fischer
and Knutti 2017, Landerink and Fowler, etc). Occurrence of high monsoonal precipitation event over
a much localized area in very short time span has been major cause of damage to lives and properties in India. Below
listed, are some of the chronology of some of the High impact heavy rainfall events, which affected the Indian
Mainland during the period 2005- 2020 while Figure 5.1 shows cumulative rainfall of these extremely heavy rainfall
spells and lives lost for some of the major events during 2005-2020.
a. Mumbai 26-27 July 2005 - One of the worst ever observed unusual localized extreme rainstorm at Mumbai when
a maxima of 94.6cm in 24-h with almost 60% of it observed during 1430-2030 IST of 26 July. The event was so
localized that it was restricted to areas around Santcurze Airport, due to which 400 people lost their lives, and city was
without phone, transport and electricity for a week, damage 5000 crores with closure of Mumbai airport was for
almost a week.
b. Leh cloud burst on 6 August, 2010, leading to flash flood and mud slides causing  loss of lives and damages to
 amenities and infrastructure.
c. Uttarakhand severe rainstorm (15-18 June 2013) - The devastating flash flood and series of landslides triggered by
Uttarakhand severe rainstorm 15-18 June 2013, killed around 6000 people. Made 100,000 people stranded and were
rescued by Govt.
d. Maharashtra Landslide event on 30 July 2014 - Malin, a Village in Maharashtra was hit by mud flow/land slide
early in the morning while residents were asleep and it was caused by a burst of heavy rainfall and killed at least 134
people.
e. Jammu & Kashmir floods during 3-7 September 2014 - Jammu and Kashmir, had rainfall up to 30 to 61cm in 3 to 4
days with worst effect on the capital town of Srinagar. Around 250 lives lost and affected whole city for 15 days.
Country’s another biggest rescue operation by Govt for 250,000 people who were stranded.
f. Chennai Flood of 16-17 November and 1-2 December 2015 - Chennai city was hard-hit with more than 500 people
losing their lives and damages and losses ranging from nearly
 15000 crore. This had been one of the most severe
urban flooding in Modern times.
g. Kerala Extreme rains and Floods of August 2018 - 14-16 Aug 2018 was the worst rain episode by which 483 people
died, and 14 are missing. Property lost is₹40,000 crore. Highest rain touched/number of stations reported>7cm and
the respective numbers are 11cm/7, 27cm/50, 35cm/50, 19cm/30 and 11cm/3 for 12-13, 14-15, 15-16, 16-17 and 17-
18 Aug, respectively with most extreme part of rainfall spell occurred in 14-16 Aug 2018. 
h. Extreme heavy rainfall spells of 3-10 August 2019 at west coast of India: i) Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra
including Mumbai City during 3-7 Aug 2019 causing 40-80cm of cumulative rainfall due to which around 50 lives lost.
The ever highest 24- hours rainfall for the period for the state was reported from Pen with value of 49.3cm with
Mumbai airport closing partially. ii) Kerala during 8-10 Aug 2019 -Kerala received extreme rainfall(>20.4cm) spell
th th
during 7-10 Aug with cumulative 20-60cm. The ever highest reported was 33 cm in Ottapalam on 8 -9 August. This
caused landslides and around 102 lives lost. Kochi airport was also closed for a day.
i. Extreme heavy rainfall spell of 4-7 July 2020 over Saurashtra and Kutch where 48.7cm was recorded at
Khambhalia,of Dwarka district on 5-6 July and 47.67cm was over Okha on 7-8 July casuing flood over the region.
Kokan coast covering Mumbai also experienced extremely heavy rain spell which have affected lives severely.
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j. Extreme heavy rainfall spell amounting to 50-71cm hit Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and adjoining Tamil Nadu
during 3-8 August 2020 and major amounts during that spell are:
• 4 Aug- Mumbai (Dharavi)-38, Mumbai (Santacruz)-26; Mumbai (Colaba)-25, Hosanagar-21, Bhagamandala-19

• 5 Aug- Palghar-46, Talasari-39, Dahanu-38, Matheran-25, Ratnagiri-22, Kalyan-17, Thane-17, Santacruz-8, Colaba-
5
• 6 Aug- Vaibhavwadi-71(Sindhudurg); Mumbai(Colaba)-33 Mumbai(Santacruz)-15, (All Konkan). Manantoddy-19,
Vyttiri-18, Nilambur-10, Kuppady-9, Munnar Kseb-8(All Kerlal) Avalanchi-58(Nilagiri-TN); Bhagamandala-49 and
Kottigehara-39, (Kodagu)(all south interior Karnataka)
• 7 Aug- Peermade to-26, Munnar Kseb-23, Idukki-23, Manantoddy-21, Vyttiri-19, Myladumpara-18, Kuppady-17,
Palakkad-14(All Kerala) Bhagamandala-40, Kottigehara-36 (All south Interior Karnatak)
The latter extremely heavy rainfall spell of 3-8 August 2020 over west coast, have severely impacted the region and as
th
a result, a huge land slide occurred near the tea plantation area at Pettimudi near Munnar in in the night of 6 Aug
August caused 66 people lost their lives and 4 are missing due to this landslide. In south interior Karnataka, on the
th
night of 5 August, five people missed and 40 cows have died in the heavy rainfall related devastation, after heavy
rain caused a landslide near Talacauvery, Bhagamandala in Karnataka's Kodagu district. Bhagamandala has received
about 147cm of rainfall during 3-8 Aug 2020.Pettimudi station affected by a huge landslide on 6 Aug 2020 and study
shows it has recvied about had 61.6cm with 300cm rainfall cumulatively got during 1-11 Aug 2020 (data as accessed
by Achu et al 2021 using data of Pettimudi division Neymakkad Tea Estate, KDHP Ltd.) while rainfall received by IMD at
th
Munar KSEB, shows 88cm for the same period and on 6 Aug 2020, it was 23cm, being just 20km Northeast of
Pettimudi.
As exemplified by the above data, heavy rainfall has been one of the most severe weather events among all other
natural hazards that recently affected lives the most. It has been causing floods and inundations including riverine,
local flash floods and urban flash floods and landslides and severely impacting agriculture and local infrastructures. In
major urban pockets, it severely affects all service sectors and many times various service sectors get closed down
including airports, hospitals and other basic municipality services like power supply, communications, surface
transports.
Figure 5.1. Rainfall cumulative highest vis-a-vis lives lost during various Major extremely
heavy rainfall events of 2005-2020
So IMD on very high priority basis, has developed and adopted time to time various global and regional scientific
integrated approach through various collaboration projects with FFGS-WMO, WCSSP-UKMO, SWFDP-WMO etc, via
WMO, USA, EU, UK and adoption of indigenous techniques and technology available within country via ISRO and
MoES institutions like NCCR, NCMRWF, IITM to improve its monitoring and early warning system including its timely
outreach to minimize its impact. It covers improvement of real time monitoring through dense network of surface,
RADAR and Satellite rainfall monitoring upto block level and sub-city levels and to generate a timely Heavy rainfall
warning upto 5-7 days in lead time by adopting a suit of latest available NWP models at local to global scale called
seamless approach at Nowcast to ERF time scale. Another objective has been to “adopt appropriate understandable
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warning format in both local regional languages and to use all the latest and best dissemination system like Social
media, CAP based technology, Whatsapp, Website etc and other digital platform to timely disseminate these
warnings to general public, media, Government and disaster managers as and when heavy rainfall is expected over
a region”. For better efficiency of the heavy rainfall warning system, IMD follows a Standard Operating Procedure
(SOP) for monitoring, prediction and warning services.
5.2. Organisation and Area of responsibility
India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences is the Nodal National Meteorological agency
mandated for issuing seamless operational weather forecast and warnings for weather hazards across the country.
IMD has 3-tier structure, viz., National weather forecasting Center (NWFC) at Delhi for National level, Regional
Meteorological Center (RMC) at regional level and Meteorological centers (MC) at state level. The weather forecasts
are issued for different temporal and spatial domains. The spatial domain range from venue, city, District, State and
country - each having different temporal domain. The temporal domains based on their validity periods are (i)
Nowcasting – a few couple of hours ahead,(ii) Short Range - up to 3 days, (iii) Medium Range - 3 – 10 days, (iv)
Extended range - 10 days to 1 month and (v) Long range – Months to a whole season. However, the warnings are
issued only in nowcast to short/medium range valid upto five days at district level.
At the national level, NWFC will issue sub-division wise heavy rainfall warning four times in day valid for next 5 days
with 2 days outlook based on 00, 03, 09 and 12 UTC observations for entire country. The warning will be issued to
national agencies, national disaster management agencies, press & electronic media, public, users and all stakeholders
by various modes. In addition the heavy rainfall warning is issued in text and colour coded graphical form by NWFC.
At regional level the heavy rainfall warning bulletin issued at district level and sub-division level for the concerned
state by RMC/MC. The warning will be issued to state agencies, state disaster management agencies, press &
electronic media, public, users and all stakeholders by various modes. In addition the heavy rainfall warning is issued
in text and colour coded graphical form by RMCs.
At RMC/MC the HRW will be issued by duty officer under the supervision of RMC/MC In-charge for the state. At RWFC
there should be round the clock duty headed by a Group-A officer if available, otherwise work may be managed by
trained officials under the supervision of a Group-A Officer.
Table 5.1
Heavy Rainfall warning issued by different centres of IMD
S. No. Centre Area of responsibility Update Warning type

1. National Weather Meteorological Sub- 4 times in a day Text and colour
Forecasting Centre (NWFC) division wise coded form
2. Regional Meteorological Meteorological Sub- 2-4 times in a day Text and colour
Centre (RMC) division and district wise coded form
3. Meteorological Centre District wise 2-4 times in a day Text and colour
(MC) coded form
Forecast Ranges for Heavy Rainfall in India
• Medium range upto 7 days

• Short range upto 3 days
• Nowcasting range < 6 hours
5.2.1. Classification of Heavy Rainfall
IMD’s classification of heavy rainfall(HRF) and terminology use for location specific rainfall ranges is given below. It
defines HRF for a specific station based on daily rainfall. It is based on the rainfall realised for the past 24 hrs ending at
0830 hrs IST of a specific day. Various categories of HRF for a station defined by IMD are given below in table 5.2.
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Table 5.2
Rainfall category
Category Range of daily rainfall of a station
Very Light Rain Trace - 2.4 mm
Light Rain 2.5 – 15.5 mm
Moderate Rain 15.6 – 64.4
Heavy rain 64.5-115.5 mm
Very heavy rain 115.6-204.4mm
Extremely heavy rain ≥ 204.5mm
Exceptionally heavy rain When the amount is a value near about the
highest recorded rainfall at or near the
station for the month or season. However,
this term will be used only when the actual
rainfall amount exceeds 24cm.
For defining intensity of heavy rainfall event, IMD follows
1 - hourly rainfall amounts as defined in Table 5.3.
Table 5.3
Rainfall spell category
Category Range of daily rainfall of a station

Light spell 1 cm/hour
Moderate spell 1-2 cm/hour
Intense spell 2-3 cm/hour
Very Intense spell 3-5 cm/hour
Extremely Intense spell 5-10 cm/hour
Cloud Burst(CB) > 10 cm/hour
To define spatial distribution of heavy rainfall over a Meteorological Sub-division, criteria as defined in Table 5.4 is
followed by IMD.
Table 5.4
Rainfall distribution category
Spatial Distribution Percentage of Stations in a

Meteorological Sub-division /Region
recording heavy rainfall
Isolated Heavy Rainfall 25% or less
Scattered Heavy Rainfall 26-50%
Fairly Widespread Heavy Rainfall 51-75%
Widespread Heavy Rainfall 76-100%
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5.3. Climatology of Heavy Rainfall and Cloud Burst (CB)
5.3.1. Climatology of Heavy Rainfall
IMD has got reasonable number stations over India with longer period data and Fig. 5.2 shows occurrences of heavy
rainfall of different categories in terms of number of days in an year over different areas of India.
Fig. 5.2. Climatology of Annual number of Rainy days, Heavy rainfall,

Very heavy rainfall and Extremely Heavy Rainfall days
5.3.2. Climatology of Cloud Burst (CB)
Cloud Burst (CB) occurrences are very local in nature and are normally observed in monsoon season over lower
Himalayan region especially over from its western parts. CB have been well known to local people for their very higher
impact as it causes very localized flash flood, landslides, debris flow, flash floods with huge damages to properties
and human losses, irrespective of the rainfall amount. Lack of sufficient number of hourly recording rainfall data and
observing system has put its detection a challenge. However, one may refer Figs 5.3 and 5.4 for finding areas
climatologically vulnerable for CBs.
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Some important characteristics of Cloudburst (CB)
 Extreme amount of rainfall realized in very short period of time

 IMD criteria-Any Precipitation event exceeding 100mm/h
 Frequencies over India
 Highest in and around the southern rim of the Indian Himalayas especially over Uttarakhand, HP and
northeastern hill states
 Westcoast over windward side Western Ghats Hills from Goa to Saurashtra
 Areas vulnerable over western Himalayas
 At between elevation range of 1000 m and 2500 m occurred within a small geographic area of 20-30 km
 30 cloud burst events have occurred over the southern rim of the Himalayas during 1970-2016, and around 17
cloud burst events among them occurred in Garhwal region of Uttarakhand
 Droplet size ranges from ~4 – 6 mm with fall speed of ~10 m/s
 Possible causes
 Orographic architecture of the mountain regions
 Monsoonal moist laden winds at lower levels from southeast/east towards the hills, coupled with vertical shear
in wind and orographic uplifting leading to intensely precipitating convective systems
Fig. 5.3. Occurrences of CB events 1969-2015 –IMD SRG/ARG data(total of 28 events occurred during 1969-201)
(left) while Right fig shows Rainfall of 3-5 cm per hour in the steep slope mountainous regions of Himalayas
(both figs arefrom Deshpande et al., 2017
Fig. 5.4. CB over WR region as collected from various sources including Media and State govt
(from Dimri et al., 2017)
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Table 5.5
Record Highest one day rainfall reported over India as per IMD data in deadening order
S. No. Station State 1-day rainfall in cm Date of occurrence

1. Sohra (earlier Meghalaya 156.3 16-Jun-1995
Cherrapunji) Obsy
2. Amini Divi Lakshadweep 116.8 6-May-2004
3. Sohra Meghalaya 103.6 14-Jun-1876
4. Ambarnath Maharashtra 101.0 27-Jul-2005
5. Sohra Meghalaya 99.8 12-Jul-1910
6. Mausynram Meghalaya 99 10-Jul-1952
7. Dharampur Gujarat 98.7 2-Jul-1941
8. Sohra Meghalaya 98.5 13-Sep-1974
9. Mawsynram Meghalaya 98 4-Aug-1982
10. Tamenlong Manipur 98 10-Aug-1970
12. Mawsynram Meghalaya 94.5 7-Jun-1966
13. Mumbai Maharashtra 94.4 27-Jul-2005
14. Tamenlong Manipur 94 28-Jul-1970
15. Sohra Meghalaya 93 15-Jun-1995
16. Guna Madhya Pradesh 92.8 23-Aug-1982
5.4. Implementation of IBF and Risk based warning for Heavy rainfall event
Impact based forecast (IBF) is given with the intention to project what the weather will do rather than what the
weather will be. The weather forecast and warning products are being prepared with the incorporation of colour code
already, so as to bring out the intensity and impact of the severe weather expected and to signal the disaster
managers about the action to be initiated at their end for mitigation. River flood, Urban flood, Land slide, Flash flood,
Coastal Flood, water inundation, water logging in low lying areas etc. are the various impacts associated with heavy
rainfall. (For more detail kindly go through Impact Based Forecasting SOP chapter).
Table 5.6
Highest ever rainfall record of a day over World
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5.5. Observation, Monitoring and Product generation of Heavy rainfall events
IMD presently using both surface and remote based observations and monitoring systems for detection and reporting
of heavy rainfall events occurrences in terms of areas of occurrences and their timings . Followings are series of
observational platforms at use presently for accurately detecting and monitoring heavy rainfall events.
i. Surface Observatories (both departmental and non- departmental (559)

ii. Pilot Balloon Observatories (62)
iii. RS/RW Observatories (43)
iv. ARG (1350)
v. AWS (701)
vi. Hydromet observatories (4241)
vii. Non-Dept. rainguages (3540)
viii. INSAT-3D
ix. INSAT-3DR
x. International Satellites-METEOSAT/ HIMWARI
xi. DWR-26
5.5.1. Rainfall products
Various observed rainfall products regularly updated and available in web page of IMD and other MoES centers are as
follows:
i. District wise daily observed rainfall and seasonal cumulative observed rainfall from Hydromet division of IMD
(refer Fig 5.5.)
Figure 5.5. District wise daily observed rainfall (left) and Seasonal cumulative observed rainfall (right) prepared in
Customized Rainfall Information System (CRIS) by Hydrology Div, IMD
99
ii. QPE of INAT 3D and INSAT 3DR
Figure 5.6. QPE of INSAT 3D (left) and QPE of INSAT 3DR (right)
iii. Rainfall product of DWR
Figure 5.7. 24 hour Rainfall by DWR

100
iv. Gauge and satellite gridded rainfall product of NCMRWF
Figure 5.8. Rainfall products from NCMRWF- Daily Merged Satellite Gauge Real-Time
Rainfall Dataset for Indian Region
v. Rainfall observation data at Synergie
Figure 5.9. 24 hour observed rainfall in synergie

101
5.6. Forecasting Techniques of Heavy rainfall
At present, the heavy rainfall event over an area/location is predicted based on the diagnostic meteorology covering
synoptic and upper air data analysis and preparing synoptic climatology or pattern matching, various NWP model
products and satellite & radar observations.
5.6.1. Diagnostic Method
CLIPER, Synoptic, Synoptic analogues/Pattern matching are methods where past heavy rainfall cases are analyaed and
various products are diagnosed synoptically and dynamically to find various conditions causes these events. NWP
model analysis and forecasted winds, areas of stronger wind shear, moisture availability, dynamic features like
vorticity, convergence and divergences at various levels of atmosphere (CIMMS and GFS diagnostic products) are also
in use in this regard to get the pattern as was past cases are associated with earlier events. Some of the major
features diagnosed which are favourable to cause heavy rainfall event are:
 Major cyclonic systems like CS/Dep, Monsoon Lows/Dep while moving, causes heavy rainfall events
 MTC and Active Monsoon trough/Off-shore trough with stronger moist laden Easterly/westerly, along west coast
and Gujarat.
 Orographic lifting and Mid-latitude system and Monsoon system interaction over western Ghats and Himalayan
region
 During break/revival phase of monsoon-Synoptic-Meso-scale Convective interaction leading to MCC/MCZ

formation
 Features cause Extreme heavy rainfall events/CB/Intense to very Intense spell over Himalayas and west Coast
• Eastern Himalaya- Convergence of moist southerly/southwesterly winds from Bay of Bengal across steep
slope of orography where moist laden winds suddenly condensed and provide very high rainfall
• Western Himalayas- Interaction of WD/mid-Latitude trough with LPS where southerly(southeasterly) moist
monsoon winds from Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal aided by orographic uplift turning to severe convective
events with CB grown upto 15km height.
• West Coast and adj south Gujarat- MTC, east-west Shear zone, off shore trough and distance effect of
LPS/Depression located over Odisha-Bengal coast or over eastern parts of Central India
 Besides above synoptic scale systems, Large scale features of the day like low level jet, MJO, IOD, El-Nino,
Ridge, easterly Jet position also enhance/supress convection in areas favourable of heavy rainfall over various
parts of India over monsoon core zone along central India, west coast and east coast of India.
 Dynamic features: Divergence, convergence, shear, shear tendency, vorticity etc
 Thermodynamic features: CAPE, CINE, Temperature gradient etc. are also used.
5.6.2. Based on NWP Models
Presently Ministry of Earth Sciences runs around 10 regional and global models with various resolutions. Rainfall
product of various models are given in Table 5.4.
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Table 5.7.
Brief of NWP Forecast models in use (individual Deterministic models, Ensemble forecast Models)
Type of nwpForecast models in use (individual Deterministic models, multi-

Resolution and product
model ensemble (MME) and single model ensemble prediction system (EPS) and
Updates
Statistical Dynamical Models)
 Medium Range Forecast : Global Model products from IMD and other MoES centers in 2018-19 :
Global forecasting system (GFS) global model-IMD- horizontal resolution of 12 km and forecast upto 10
http://nwp.imd.gov.in/gfsproducts_cycle00.php days (0000 and 1200 UTC)
Unified model-NCMRWF- horizontal resolution of 12 km and forecast upto 10
https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/latest_charts.php days (0000 and 1200 UTC)
Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) global
probabilistic model-IITM-
horizontal resolution of 12 km and forecast upto 10
https://www.tropmet.res.in/erpas/files/eps_initial_condit
days (0000 UTC)
ions.php
Products at IMD(http://nwp.imd.gov.in/gefspro.php
Global Unified model ensemble prediction system-
NCMRWF- (Model in brief –
https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/NEPS_TR_Aug2018_Final.pdf
days
Products at
https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/latest_charts.php
10-day probabilistic forecasts are issued daily using 23
Probabilistic Forecast Products from NCMRWF Ensemble ensemble members (1 control + 22 perturbed). The
Prediction System (NEPS)- (Model in brief- at operational deterministic forecast running from 00 UTC
https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/Reports-eng/TR_12-km_ is used as control forecast. One set of 11 perturbed
NEPS_Forecast_Products.pdf members run from 00 UTC of current day and another
Products at set of 11 perturbed members run from 12 UTC of
https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/latest_charts.php# previous day to form 22 perturbed ensemble members.
T
 Global Model products available to IMD through WMO/Multi- institutional global collaboration: IMD
implemented JMA supported software for real-time TC forecast over North Indian Ocean (NIO) during 2011.
The Ensemble and deterministic forecast products from ECMWF (50+1 Members), NCEP (20+1 Members), UKMO
(23+1 Members) and MSC (20+1 Members) are available near real-time for NIO region for named TCs. The JMA
provided software to prepare Web page to provide guidance of tropical cyclone forecasts in near real-time for the
ESCAP/WMO committee Members. The forecast products are made available in real time.
 Short Range Forecast
horizontal resolution of 3 and 9 km and forecast
Weather research forecast (WRF) Meso scale model
upto 3 days.
Unified Meso scale regional model
days
Hurricane WRF (HWRF) for cyclone prediction
days
The HRRR is hourly updated atmospheric model
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) WRF model with
with horizontal resolution of 2km. The model is
Satellite Application Center-Indian Space Research
currently being integrated for 12hours to provide
Organization (SAC-ISRO) for north India region. The
precipitation and maximum reflectivity
experimental HRRR model is based on Weather Research and
products.The experimental HRRR model
Forecasting (WRF) Model’s ARW core and takes the initial
implementation uses Radar data of 6 radars namely
and boundary condition from the IMD-GFS global model.
Delhi, Jaipur, Chandigarh, Bhopal, Lucknow and
Using the WRF Data Assimilation system (WRF-DA), the
Srinagar. The model completion time at present is
RADAR data is assimilated in HRRR every 10-15 min over a 1-
approximately 1hr 45 min. Hence forecasted plot
h period(from Feb 2021
are available at 2-h gap
103
IMD GFS (12 km)
(i) IMD WRF (03 km)
104
(ii) GEFS (12 km)
105
(iii) NCUM
(iv) NEPS
106
(v) HWRF
The most recent development of Heavy rainfall intensity forecast upto 5 days using NWP rainfall amounts, IMD has
made arrangement to make available forecast of rainfall averaged over the met-sub-division wise from 5- different
models available in a single click in tabular form as given below at
https://nwp.imd.gov.in/models_intensity_05days.php.
5.7. SOP of Heavy rainfall Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning system
At present, the heavy rainfall is monitored and predicted based on the synoptic, satellite, radar and NWP model inputs
(refer fig. 5.10). All these data/products are analysed and then discussed through video conferencing among all the
forecaster across the country to arrive at a consensus decision on likelihood of heavy rainfall and its impact over a
region or a part of it during next 5 days.
107
5.7.1. Steps for monitoring of Heavy rainfall
The monitoring for heavy rainfall basically involves the following steps.
• Routine retrieval and review of scheduled bulletins and products issued by SWFC/RWFC/AMO/ FMO/NWP
Division/NWFC etc.
• Routine retrieval and review of all remotely sensed data (AWS, ARG, Satellite, Radar, Lightning etc.
• Maintenance of continuous watch for the arrival of unscheduled data like intense precipitation advisory reports
of actual heavy rainfall occurring etc.
5.7.2. Heavy Rainfall Forecast Techniques
There are various techniques for predicting heavy rainfall over a region:
a. Synoptic
b. Radar
c. Satellite
d. NWP products
e. Checklist
• Synoptic features of the day

• Large scale features of the day like MJO, IOD, El-Nino, Ridge, Jet position.
• Systems in Indian Ocean
• Satellite guidance
• Radar guidance
• Dynamic features: Divergence, convergence, shear, shear tendency, vorticity etc
• Thermodynamic features: CAPE, CINE, Temperature gradient etc.
• Model Guidance
Figure 5.10. Flow charts of Heavy rainfall monitoring and warning
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5.7.3. Analysis and Forecasting
Forecasters will analyse actual weather charts along with supporting NWP and satellite/Radar products to assess
intensity, position, behaviour and direction of movement of the weather system(s). After processing all weather data
duty officer will issue HRW over the area of responsibility if expected. Heavy rainfall warning should be issued without
fail, when forecasters estimate that the weather system is likely to hit the area of responsibility 5 Days and may give
heavy rain. In subsequent bulletin, the warning may be reviewed by referring the weather charts,
NWP/Satellite/RADAR products, position of the system and its direction of movement. Basic steps are given below.
• Duty Forecaster will analyse all the received data on the workstation available to him continuously. For fulfilling
it, a digital signature to record as the proof of his time of analysis should be provided at his work station. The
MC/RWFC, where such facility is not available, a manual log book will be maintained for this purpose.
• Forecaster will issue a bulletin/warning on the basis of observations and messages received. In case of likelihood
of heavy rainfall inferred from various inputs, for the region of forecast of the SWFC / RWFC, the forecaster will
issue brief characteristics of the heavy rainfall and necessary warnings.
• In case no heavy rainfall expected, the concerned SWFC / RWFC will issue a “Warning : Nil”.
5.7.4. Decision making process
NWFC issue sub-division wise Heavy Rainfall Warning(HRW)for the whole county (Annex 1) while SWFC/ RWFC will
issue HRW district-wise for the respective state (Annex 2) and these warnings are issued for 5-days validity period
udapted 6-hourly basis. Issuing HRW is the sole responsibility of the concerned MC/RWFC. However, they will discuss
the matter with NWFC by 1030 hrs. IST for issue of warning based on data of 0830 hrs. IST of the day through
tele/video conferencing. In case of discrepancy, the view of SWFC /RWFC will prevail.
Decision making involves the following features:
• Routinely retrieval and review of scheduled bulletins and products issued by SWFC/RWFC/AMO, Satellite, Radar,
upper air, synoptic divisions
• Forecaster should recognize impact of unrepresentative/erroneous observations. Once the error is recognized, it
should be discounted. An observation can be suspected only by comparing it with observation of the surrounding
station/stations. Also it should be seen whether the concerned observation has compliance/non-compliance of
the conceptual models considered. Once the error is ascertained, the forecaster should take necessary action to
collect correct information from the observatory and its further communication.
• Diagnose conditions along the boundaries. The duty forecaster will monitor forecast/warning issued for adjacent
region. The duty officer will liaison with forecasters of adjacent region also.
• Noting weather nearing the predefined threshold of severity in the area of responsibility.
• Once a Duty forecaster detects any impending heavy rainfall event in the domain of responsibility, he/she will
consult with RWFC/NWFC/Satellite/RADAR Centre to arrive at a decision of issuing a heavy rainfall warning. Duty
forecaster, will contact the senior designated officer and discuss the input to arrive at the conclusion of issuing a
heavy rainfall warning.
• Forecaster should use techniques appropriate for heavy rainfall warning. He/she should correctly use subjective
(synoptic), NWP and statistical guidance. For heavy rainfall warning valid up to 24 hrs synoptic method supported
by NWP guidance and other models observation tools/products like satellite and radars should be used. In this
range the mesoscale WRF model guidance should take precedence of global NWP models. For 48 and 72 hrs
validity period, mainly the suitable NWP models (both global and mesoscale) should be used. For this purpose
the suitability of various models for the area of interest should be verified for daily use. In the absence of this
information, the mosel which best suits the initial condition of the day of the day should be used for heavy
rainfall forecast.
• The forecaster should commence with predicting the evolution and motion of the weather system for heavy
rainfall.
• The duty forecaster will prepare the checklist for decision making based on the above guidelines. SWFC / RWFC
should prepare their region specific checklist as per their own requirements and the local conditions under the
broad framework of this SOP.
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• The forecaster should proactively amend the forecast as and when the situation demands.
• The duty forecaster will respond in a timely manner when amendment criteria are reached.
• Entire process of decision making has to be logged precisely and methodically.
5.7.5. Time line for analysis, forecast and dissemination
All forecast/warnings will be issued at the time scale of 3 hours and spatial scale of districts from corresponding SWFC
/ RWFC. The time line for this purpose is given below.
HH: Appreciation of the scenario through synoptic and NWP analysis and forecast
↓
Analysis of hourly data and products (Satellite, Radar, AWS, ARG, Metar, Speci etc)
↓
HH+1: Preparation of Check list and decision making
↓
HH+2: Generation of warning bulletin and products
↓
HH+2.5 : Uploading and dissemination
The offices will issue HRW four times/two times a day according to infrastructure/ facilities available (like availability
of Synergy) and depending upon requirements of various users.
Table 5.7.
Preparation & dissemination time of various charts/products
Charts/Product Time Preparation Time Dissemination Time

0600UTC 0900UTC 1000UTC
1200UTC 1500UTC 1600UTC
1800UTC 2100UTC 2200UTC
0000UTC 0300UTC 0400UTC
(of next day)
5.7.6. Forecast/warning services
5.7.6.1. Directory/List of Warnees
(i) Complete upto date list of HRF warnees, with address and telephone numbers to be kept. List of warnees to be
updated in the month of March every year.
(ii) The duty officer will ensure that HRW has been issued and has been passed on to all concerned.
(iii) Highest authorities of the State (Chief Secretary, Military, Relief commissioners etc.) to be kept informed
telephonically by D/O or class I officer.
(iv) A log book to be maintained for this purpose.
5.7.7. HRW Products
5.7.7.1. Text of heavy rainfall warning in color code tabular form
The text to be adopted in operational use depending on spatial distribution of heavy rainfall is as follows:
Heavy/very heavy/extremely heavy rain would /will occur at isolated/scattered/ in the districts/subdivisions..............
(name) during 12/24/36/48 hrs.
Heavy to very heavy rain would /will occur in districts/subdivisions ......(name) during 12/24/36/48 hrs.
Extreme heavy rain would /will occur in districts/subdivisions ............(name) during 12/24/36/48 hrs.
NWFC and state Format given in Annex I and II
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5.7.7.2. In graphical form of Multi-hazard colour code maps
Annexure 3 is the forecast circular 2018 forecasting colour code while Annex 1 is the sample in multi-hazard map for
upto Day 5 issued by NWFC and Annex 2 at districts level issued by MC.
5.7.8. SOP of Local Heavy rainfall forecast and Urban heavy Rainfall Monitoring and warning services
IMD has taken up the Urban Meteorological services as one of its priority project for providing location specific at sub-
city based severe weather warning for major cities which also includes impact based warnings for local heavy rainfall
events which causes flash flood. The SOP of heavy rainfall forecast over urbane areas, major cites and local forecast
are available in respective SOP
5.7.8.1. SOP on Location specific heavy rainfall forecast - A consensus approach of all NWP model products and
other checklist
• IMD issues various forecast and warnings routinely at sub-division, district and city scales. While the sub-
divisional scale short to medium range weather forecast is issued by NWFC, 4 times a day the short to medium
range forecast at district-wise scale is issued by MC/RMC and updated twice a day. The Nowcast are issued by
MC/RMC every three hours for districts and cities/town, the short to medium range cities forecasts are issued by
MC/RMC which are updated 4 times a day for different parts of the city.
• In addition to the general forecasts and warnings the Local Forecasts for the Capital and other important
cities/towns is very important for management of urban activities. These forecasts are very important
th th
particularly for special occasion like 15 August, 26 January, festival/fair/tourism and also for VVIP movements.
• Though the Local Forecasts are issued for 7 days (or some time for special occasions the forecasts are issued 10
days to two weeks in advance) but its utility is increased manifold upto 48 hours so the forecasters need to be
accurate in terms of time and space as the lead time decreases.
5.7.8.2. Objective of present SOP for issuing city/local forecast of heavy rainfall
• The objective of the present SOP is to integrate all available observed and forecast products (surface, upper-air,
radar and satellite, etc) and NWP model forecasts to improve the location specific forecasts.
A. Issuing Authority
• Duty officers of MC/Head of MC/RMC forecasting offices will be issuing final local forecast over the major cities
within their respective regions. For forecast in Delhi, NWFC will issue the forecast in consultation with RMC
Delhi.
B. Stages of Local Forecast
Stage -1: 7 days or more before the event date (or as per the requirement)
NWP models are capable to provide indications and likelihood over a city or location about 5 days in advance. Also
the extended range forecast will be able to capture the large scale condition prior to about 10 days of the event. The
initial forecasts can be issued and updated once in a day by using the model products. Based on the various models
guidance from deterministic and probabilistic NWP models the forecasters will decide the forecast weather element
and their probability of occurrence and its intensity. Based on the various models guidance from deterministic and
probabilistic models the forecasters will decide the forecast of weather elements and their probability of occurrence
and intensity.
Following models and observations are to be used for this purpose.
• IMD Extended Range Forecast products & NCMRWF Extended Range Forecast products
• GFS & GEFS; UM & UMEPS; ECMWF, NCEP GFS
• Also the forecasters should use the climatological guidance
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Stage -2: 3 to 6 days before the event date
Following models and observations are to be used for this purpose in this time scale. As the lead time decreases, the
forecast need to be modified based on the local observations and updated models products.
Forecast products (both direct and derived) from various models such as:
a. GFS-T1534, WRF, GEFS, NCUM, NEPS, NCEP GFS, ECMWF &UKMO (Available through SWFP portal)
b. METEOGRAM, EPSGRAMS from all models are to be used.
https://nwp.imd.gov.in/login.php
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/All_times_ind_mihir_00.php
SWFP login (for ECMWF & UKMO models)
c. Climatological inputs ( Normal, Extremes and Severe Weather)
Stage -3: 48 hours to 24 hours before the target date/event
This is the very crucial period of forecast. All inputs are to be considered based on synoptic observations,
thermodynamic indices, dynamical parameters and NWP models outputs and all entries are to be documented in a
specified tabular form.
Following inputs are to be considered.
i. Synoptic inputs
Surface synoptic charts – SYNERGIE SYSTEM / AMSS

METAR/SPECII observations– SYNERGIE SYSTEM/OLBS
Upper-air charts from OLBS (AMSS)/Synergy
Parameters : (MSLP, T, TD, RH, Wind, cloud type and cloud cover and their changes in past 24 hours)
ii.Observed thermodynamic indices & dynamical parameters for the location based on nearest GPS/RSRW
observations.
CAPE & CINE

Low level wind direction & speed,
Low to mid level humidity
Warm air advection or veering of wind (Winds that rotate clockwise with height)
Cold air advection or backing of wind (Wind turning counter-clockwise with height)
Vertical wind shear at lower level
(The website of UAID may be referred)
iii.Satellite inputs
a. RGB of INSAT-3D, CTT and Skew-T charts from RAPID

http://www.rapid.imd.gov.in/
b. RGB of EUMETSAT
http://foreignsat.imd.gov.in/
c. Animation
http://foreignsat.imd.gov.in/, http://satellite.imd.gov.in/img/animation3d/sanew_3d.htm
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iv.Model forecasts
Forecast products (both direct and derived) from various models such as:
d. GFS-T1534, WRF, GEFS, NCUM, NEPS, NCEP GFS, ECMWF &UKMO (Available through SWFP portal)
e. METEOGRAM, EPSGRAMS from all models are to be used.

https://nwp.imd.gov.in/login.php
SWFP login (for ECMWF & UKMO models)
v. .Climatological inputs ( Normal, Extremes and Severe Weather)
Stage -4: On the day of the event before the target date/event
Surface observation as described in Stage 3 i on hourly basis at the location
A. Observed thermodynamic indices & dynamical parameters for the location based on nearest GPS/RS/RW
observations. (Same as 3ii)
B. Satellite inputs (Same as 3iii)
C. Model forecasts (Same as 3iv). Additional Nowcast products are to be utilized.
D. Climatological inputs (Same as 3v)
E. Radar parameters
d. MaxZ
e. Wind
http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/radar_main.php
f. Animations
http://ddgmui.imd.gov.in/radar/leaflet-map-csv-master/mosaic.php
Stage -v: Before 6 hours of the event
SOP for Nowcast is to be followed.
Local Forecasts for the Capital and other important cities/towns is very important for management of urban
th th
activities.These forecasts are very important particularly for special occasion like 15 August, 26 January,
festival/fair/tourism and also for VVIP movements.
Though the Local heavy rainfall Forecasts are issued for 7 days (or some time for special occasions the forecasts are
issued 10 days to two weeks in advance) but its utility is increased manifold upto 48 hours so the forecasters need to
be accurate in terms of time and space as the lead time decreases.
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5.7.8.3. Decision Making Process for Local heavy rainfall Forecast
Stations Observations
Climatological Inputs of Station
Departure from normal
Evolution of weather over the station
Satellite & RADAR
Large scale scenario Analysed charts and model analysis
Thermodynamical parameters T-phi gram, CAPE, CINE etc
Veering & Backing of wind

Dynamical parameters Sea/land Breezes;
Anabatic/ Catabatic wind
Divergence & Convergence
Inference (CIMSS; Satellite, Radar, Models)
Finalisation of WX system & the
occurrence of the Wx near the station
FINAL FORECAST
Examination of model analysis
Best model Comparison of models with station obs
Ensemble models
Meteograms from various models Comparison of models with station obs
Objective Consensus Most probable scenario best on different

probabilistic forecasts
Occurrence (Place, time, duration,

intensity, dissipation, probability (%)
Subjective Consensus Model diagnostics, weightage to models
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5.7.8.4. Decision making & preparation of final forecast
• Based on all these inputs from NWP models an objective consensus will be drawn with respect to
occurrence/non occurrence of the event (Both deterministic and probabilistic), its time of occurrence, its duration, its
dissipation.
• Based on model diagnostic/prognostics and the observations from Satellite/Radar/AWS/ARG and synoptic
station, a subjective guidance will be developed to moderate the objective consensus. For this purpose the individual
model analysis for that station will be compared with the actual observation and hence the initial value of the model
can be modified and hence the forecast can also be modified. The available forecasters will consult with each other to
exchange their knowledge, expertise, experience to arrive at subjective consensus.
• In case of forecast for VVIP user for Delhi, it has to be approved by Director General of Meteorology 2 days prior
to the target date.
5.7.8.5. Meteograms of Location
Meteograms of various locations are also available based on GFS, WRF, NCUM and NEPS model now available at single
click display
Table 5.11.
Sample of Objective Consensus for Location specific rainfall
th
DATE METEOGRAMS RAINFALL AMOUNT of Rainfall (mm) valid for 15 August
0_6 UTC 6_12 UTC 12_18 UTC 18_24 UTC
1.5 4.5 1 3
ECMWF YES
(Max=3) (Max=10) (Max=11) (Max=7)
8 0 2 3
GEFS YES
(Max=19) (Max=1) (Max=4) (Max=12)
GFS --
15-08-
4 2 1 4.5
2020 UKMO YES
(Max=6) (Max=4) (Max=3) (Max=12)
NCUM YES 3 0 0 1
5 4 0 3
NCUM-EPS YES
(Max=8) (Max=7) (Max=2) (Max=13)
4 2 1 3
Mean Rainfall
(Max=19) (Max=10) (Max=11) (Max=13)
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5.7.9. SOP of Heavy rainfall- Impact Based Forecast(IBF) and risk based warning
A SOP on IBF is already implemented in IMD since June 2020 and its objective is to integrate all available observed and
forecast weather and climate information of heavy rainfall event forecasts using all observations (surface, upper-air,
ship, buoys, aircraft, radar and satellite) and NWP model forecasts for issuing IBF at met sub-division, district wise and
at sub-city levels.. The Continuous monitoring through hourly/sub-hourly rainfall observations, RADAR & SATELLITE
observations will be the basis of nowcast in real time while alert has already been given in the forecasts for the
day.The frame procedures based on IBF from heavy rainfall, covering variant of services with lead time, types of
bulletin, graphics and etc are in its SOP. The SOP includes formats and types of bulletins/forecasts and warnings along
with provisions to include location and intensity of the heavy rainfall appended with hourly to 3 hourly rainfall updates
from AWS/ARG and SYNOP stations available in the city as well as QPE from the satellite/radar. The features of
weather system using RADAR and Satellite pictures along with alert/warning message will be added to bring necessary
attention of the disaster manages and general public. This section discussed IBF concepts and IMD SOP.
5.7.9.1. What is IBF-Heavy rainfall
Impact based forecast: Reorient Focus from what the weather will be to what the weather will do. Weather Ready
Nations (WRNs) program is implementing an Impact-based forecast system following the WMO, 2015 guidelines (Ref:
WMO guidelines on multi-hazard impact based forecast and warning services).
Heavy rainfall over an area or over a location has following types basic impact:
 Flash Flood and Riverine flood
 Urban Flash Flood and Flash flood over Hilly areas with steep topography
 landslides and debris flow
 Local Inundation, Road and Traffic disruption
 Agriculture
 Infrastructural Damage-Houses, roads, Airport, Hospitals, City center
 Emergency Services gets affected- Electricity, Phone/Internet and water
 Socio- economic Impact like- Human lives and health and Livestock
The various components of impact based forecast system are shown in following charts
• Assessing Risks
• Monitoring and Early Warning
• Dissemination and Communication
• Response Capability
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Figure 5.12. Impact based forecast component
5.7.9.2. Stages of IBF-Heavy rainfall development and implementation in IMD
In India, IMD has been developing IBF and warning, stage wise, for various severe weather as per WMO, 2015
methods. It covers cyclone, heat wave, fog, cold wave, and heavy rainfall, thunderstorm. Stages of developments for
IBF are:
Stage-I: Threshold Method

Stage-II: Qualitative combination method
Stage-III: Impact Model method
Stage-IV: Climate Sensitivity Method
Threshold Method : In threshold method, color code warning is given based on meteorological threshold. It is based
on WMO guideline and depends upon two factors i.e. likelihood of weather event and potential impact of hazard. It
was implemented in IMD since 2013 for all type of weather hazard affecting Indian region with gradual development.
Qualitative combination method : In this method in addition to threshold method, a generalized impact is developed
for each severe weather type through consensus among the forecasters based on subjective assessment of potential
impacts corresponding to weather warning threshold. Generalized impact is implemented for all type of weather
hazard.
Impact Model method : In this method in addition to qualitative combination method, climatological data of past
impact corresponds to different severe weather hazard is collected and then a threshold is fixed for each hazard.
Thereafter a climatological impact is prepared for different type of hazard based on threshold. Currently, various
climatological data of different hazard and impact is collected and data is supplied to NCCR for analysis and in house
analysis of data is under process.
Climate Sensitivity Method : In climate sensitivity method in addition to climatological impact, Real time impact
based forecast and risk based warning will be given by considering the real time information of meteorological hazard,
vulnerability and exposure in geo reference coordinate and a decision support system will also be established.
Meteorological data has been collected and being analysed. However exposure date is being collected.
117
5.7.9.3. Stages of implementation of IBF
IMD implemented generalized Impact based forecast for heavy rainfall since 2018 Monsoon season with further
development in 2020 Monsoon season. From 2018, as per forecast circular (Annex 3), colours are assigned based on
vulnerability of past data.
The impacts are finalized through VC consultation for issuing real time impact Based warnings at met sub-
division/district upto 5 days. It has completed the Stage I and Stage II of development and implemented it at all India.
Color code for IBF graphics/table
Figure 5.13. Risk & Response Matrix
The existing colour code as prescribed by WMO and reproduced here will be utilized to provide impact based
forecasting & response action.
From monsoon of 2020 Data of past impact has been collected and analyzed for major cities of India and IBF for 20
major cities was also started since Monsoon 2020 season. Exposure data is being collected for Real time IBF and Risk
based matrix. However Chennai Flood warning system (C-Flows) and Mumbai Flood warning system (i-Flows, since
2020) is in place and Kolkata flood warning system is under process for real time IBF.The format of IBF given in Annex
IV where heavy rainfall warning issued via Multi-Hazard map and tabular form both for Met sub-division wise and
district wise. The impact and response action will be provided in the warning table corresponding to heavy rainfall
warning. The standard impact & response table are given below. The generalized impact is classified and suggested
actions are given below which have been implemented at me sub-division/district levels while Table 5.8 shows city
based matrix derived using past impact and heavy rainfall data for 1991-2020-30 years.
Heavy rainfall- Impact based warning & Action suggested (Met sub-dvsion wise and district wise) - implemented in
IMD at real time since July 2019
A. Impact
o Localized Flooding of roads, water logging in low lying areas and closure of underpasses mainly in urban areas of
the above region.
o Occasional reduction in visibility due to heavy rainfall.
o Disruption of traffic in major cities due to water logging in roads leading to increased travel time.
o Minor damage to kutcha roads.
o Possibilities of damage to vulnerable structure.
o Localized Mudslides(for plain areas) and Landslides (for hill and vulnerable areas)
o Damage to horticulture and standing crops in some areas due to inundation.
o It may lead to riverine flooding in some river catchments (for riverine flooding please visit Web page of CWC)
B. Action Suggested
a. Check for traffic congestion on your route before leaving for your destination.
b. Follow any traffic advisories that are issued in this regard.
c. Avoid going to areas that face the water logging problems often. Avoid staying in vulnerable structure.
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Table 5.8
Impact Based Forecast Matrix for Mumbai
S. No. Heavy rainfall Intensity Expected Impact Action Suggested

1. Moderate rainfall  Slippery roads • Nil
(<6cm)  Localised traffic congestions
2. Heavy rainfall (>=7 cm)  Localized flooding/water logging • Traffic may be regulated
with moderate to of low lying areas effectively
intense spell  Traffic congestions
3. Cumulative rainfall  Localized flooding/water logging • Traffic may be regulated
(>= 12 cm in 48 hours) of low lying areas effectively
 Traffic congestions  People living in very old buildings
 Possibility of danger to very old and unmaintained structures may take
buildings and unmaintained caution
structures
4. Very heavy rainfall • Water logging/ flooding in • Traffic may be regulated
(>=12 cm) many parts of low lying area and effectively
river banks • People in the affected area may
• Localized and short term restrict their movement
disruption to municipal services
(water, electricity, etc.)
• Major disruption of traffic flow.
Major roads/local trains affected.
• Possibility of danger to very old
buildings and unmaintained
structures, falling of trees etc
 Closure of roads crossing low
water bridges
5. Heavy to very heavy Widespread and severe water • Traffic may be regulated
rainfall with isolated logging/ flooding in most parts of effectively
extremely heavy rainfall low lying area and also on river • People in the affected area may
at isolated places banks. restrict their movement
(>=20cm) • Major disruption of traffic flow.
Major roads/local trains and travel
routes severely affected.
• Localized and short term
disruption to municipal services
(water, electricity, etc.)
• Possibility of danger to old and
unmaintained structures, falling of
trees etc
• Possibility of local landslides in
elevated hilly areas
• Possibility of inundation of
coastal areas when coincided with
high tide
• Closure of roads crossing low
water bridges
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5.7.9.4. SOP on IBFand Risk based warning of Heavy Rainfall Warning
NWFC will issue IBF for met sub-division wise while Concern Duty officers of MC/Head of MC/RWFC forecasting offices
will be issuing final impact based forecasts for all heavy rainfall events over the major cities and districts within their
respective regions.
Stages of IBF based heavy rainfall warning
Stage -1 : Heavy rainfall Advisory(Watch)-(3-4 days lead time with 12-h udpates)
Heavy rainfall (Intensity, location, day/time of occurrence, onset, duration and cessation) remain a challenge to
forecast world-wide. However, NWP models are capable to provide indications and likelihood over a city at 2-5 Days
in advance especially in case it is associated with some well-defined monsoon systems. In latter case, a preliminary
bulletin in terms of heavy rainfall outlook can be issued and updated time to time (format enclosed as Annex V).
It can be disseminated mainly to disaster managers for the city.
Stage-2 : Heavy rainfall Alert (48 hours prior to the occurrence of the event at 12 hourly updates)
Model consensus mostly develops when event lead time is within 1-3 days. Hence Color coded messages in tabular
form with Impact types(format encld as Annex Ib) can be issued at this lead time with likely rainfall amounts and
duration of the event. Probability based forecast guidance should be issued considering its likelihood of occurrences.
Based on potential impact, risk should be decided using color matric. This forecast has to be disseminated using
e-mails, web page, various social media, WhatsApp, etc. Expected Impact may be accordingly included as per
Annex VI.
Stage-3 : Heavy rainfall Warning (24 hours prior to the occurrence of the event at 06/12-hourly updates)
At this stage 3, a complete diagnostic and prognostic feature from available RADAR, Satellite, NWP and Convective
products needs to be evaluated. After all critical analysis, bulletin can be further modified including IBF and a concise
color code warning can be issued by including all features of the event and likely impact over the city/part of that city.
The format of this bulletin is enclosed in Annex vii.This bulletin has to be disseminated to all user communities
including local media using web page, e-mails, various social media, WhatsApp, etc.
Stage-4 : 12-Hours prior to occurrences of maximum rainfall spell
By this time heavy rainfall event can be under intense monitoring using RADAR, Satellite, ARG/Synop hourly/half-
hourly current weather information and GFS/WRF/NOWCAST models. The warnings and it’s all features should be
updated in every hour/3-hours. It is final and crucial stage of IMD warning system and all attempts must be made by
the concerned MC/RWFC to make its monitoring, forecasting and warning reasonably correct and timely. The time to
time coordination with concerned disaster management and media should be carried out with telephonic
conversations, SMS and WhatsApp etc. To carry out such task smoothly from the start of the event as captured by
RADAR/Satellite, a complete diagnostic and prognostic features of the event along with associated cloud
characteristics and rainfall distribution as available from RADAR, Satellite and surface data e.g. AWS/ARG/SYNOP have
to be made available to the duty forecasters. The format of the bulletin in stage 4 is given in Annex VIII. It is impact
based warning with a color code for different parts of the city. This bulletin has to be disseminated to all user
communities including local media using web page, e-mails, various social media, WhatsApp, etc.
5.7.9.5. SOP IBF and Risk based warnings for city, District and Met Sub-Division
It covers guidelines regarding spatial and temporal resolutions of forecasting
• Impact based forecasting & warning should be provided at meteorological city level initially by MC/RMCs, later
on the area of the impact will be demarcated with different color without restricting to city boundaries.
• At the MC/RMC level the impact based forecast will be provided at the district level initially (within the city), later
on the area of impact will be specified specially, as and when the decision support system will be available to the
forecaster.
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• The impact based forecast will be issued for next 5 days like existing severe weather warning e.g. D1, D2, D3, D4
& D5. With the availability of the advanced tools for severe weather prediction, Impacts Based Forecast will be
issued for the city during the time scale of nowcast/very short range forecast.
5.7.9.6. Decision making on IBF and warning
The decision regarding expected impact will be taken by analyzing the severity & likelihood of weather event on daily
basis. The decision will be taken through video conferencing to decide the impact (very low, low, medium or high) at
sub-divisional level. Correspondingly the expected impact for a given severe weather will be described from pre-
defined table. Also the suggested response action will be decided accordingly following the response action
mentioned in response table with respect to expected category of impact. The decision for district level impact &
response forecast will be issued by MC/RMC for their area of responsibility considering all the above factors.
In view of low skill of heavy rainfall forecast at 3-5 days lead time over a location by the NWP models and for providing
a Red color in IBF matrix needs high skill score so, Red color IBF warning cannot be given beyond 48 hours and for lead
time higher than 48 hours yellow & orange color can be given.
Viz: For any extremely heavy rainfall on Day 5: Give yellow color on Day 4 & 5, orange color on Day 3 and give Red
color on Day 2 & 1. Even though we may be confident sometimes about the occurrence on day 5 on first day itself, red
color warning we will not be given beyond 3 days.
Upload of bulletins: Impact based forecast will be uploaded 4 times in a day in NWFC and 2 times in a day in MC/RMC
normally. However in case of repeat development or cessation of extreme weather or false alarm the bulletin may
be updated immediately. Day-1 forecast will be valid till 0830 hours IST of next day for all forecast issued that day.
5.7.9.7. Real time Customized Heavy rainfall monitoring and IBF system operational over Mumbai and Chennai
IMD has taken up the Urban Meteorological services as one of its priority project for providing location specific at sub-
city based severe weather warning for major cities which also includes impact based warnings for local heavy rainfall
events which causes flash flood.
The present Urban met services of IMD functional at most cities in India. It can be classified as:
i) 6-h local forecast updates issued routinely at sub-city level that includes temperature and rainfall observations.
ii) Sub-city level during potential severe weather development at least 3 hourly .
iii) Impact Based Forecast for City heavy rainfall forecast.
To improve services during heavy rainfall events for vulnerable cities, a 5- years plan has already been implemented
for 2019-2024 for improving both the monitoring systems with installation of more dense network of ARG/AWS at
various cities as well as other modern monitoring facilities covering DWR, Radiometers, wind profilers etc and work is
in progress through collaboration with its other institutions of MoES like IITM, NCMRWF, NCCR, INCOIS and with local
administration authority like Municipal and disaster authorities.
Chennai Flood Warning System (C-FLOWS)
• A multi-institutional project involving institutions of MOES (IMD, INCOIS, NCCR, NCMRWF), IIT-Bombay, IIT-
Madras, IRS-Anna University.
• A tools for relief and mitigation operations especially during flooding
• A disaster preparedness decision support system for coastal flooding in urban areas
• C-FLOWS : first operational system for urban flooding in country
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Figure 5.14. C-FLOWS
(i) Integrated Mumbai Flood Warning System (I-FLOWS)
Extreme precipitation events are on the rise in India driven by warming temperatures and changes in the monsoon
due to climate change. The capital of the state of Maharashtra, Mumbai, a megapolis and the financial capital of India
has been experiencing floods with increased periodicity and recent flood in 29 August, 2017, brought the city to a
th
standstill. The flood during 26 July, 2005, is probably etched in the memory of every Mumbai citizen, when the city
received a rainfall of 94cm, a 100 year high in a span of 24 hours paralyzing the city completely. As a preparedness for
floods before they occur, people to be warned so that they can be prepared in advance for flooding conditions.
In a bid to aid in the mitigation activities of the flood prone city, Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai, Govt of
Maharashtra approached the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) to develop an Integrated Flood Warning System for
Mumbai referred to as, IFLOWS-Mumbai. MoES initiated the development of IFLOWS-Mumbai in July 2019 using the
inhouse expertise available within the Ministry of Earth Sciences in close coordination with Municipal Corporation of
Greater Mumbai. IFLOWS-Mumbai is developed as a state of art Integrated Flood Warning system for Mumbai to
enhance the resilience of a city of Mumbai by providing early warning for flooding specially during high rainfall events
and cyclones.
I-FLOWS is built on a modular structure and comprises of seven modules, namely Data Assimilation, Flood, Inundation,
Vulnerability, Risk, Dissemination Module and Decision Support System. The system incorporates weather models
from National Centre for medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India Meteorological Department (IMD),
field data from the rain gauge network stations setup by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Municipal
Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) and IMD, thematic layers on land use, infrastructure etc provided by MCGM.
Based on inputs from weather models, Hydrologic models are used to transform rainfall into runoff and provides
inflow inputs into the river systems. Hydraulic models are used to solve equations of fluid motion to replicate the
movement of water to assess flooding in the study area. Since, Mumbai is an island city with its connectivity to sea,
hydrodynamic models and storm surge model are used to calculate the tide and storm surge impacts on the city. The
system has provisions to capture the urban drainage within the city and predict the areas of flooding, which will be
incorporated in the final system. The data on river bathymetry was collected in all rivers namely Mithi, Dahisar,
Oshiwara, Poisar, Ulhas, lakes and creeks by NCCR in association with MCGM and IMD, Mumbai. The land topography,
land use, infrastructure, population etc., was provided by MCGM and it was integrated into a Decision Support System
to accurately estimate flood levels at ward level using thematic layers in GIS. A web GIS based decision supports
system is build to calculate the vulnerability and risk of elements exposed to flood.
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Figure 5.15. Mumbai I-FLOWS
Fig. 5.16. Mumbai city-Impact based warning issued on 3 August, 2020
5.7.9.8. Heavy rainfall impact-Flood inundation forecast from FFGS
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in partnership with the U.S. Agency for International Development/ Office
of the U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA), the National Weather Service (NWS) of the U.S. National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Hydrologic Research Center (HRC) started a Global Flash
Flood Guidance System project to cater services for hydro meteorological events occurring in short duration
time. Global Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) is recognized as one of the Impact Based Forecast and Warning
Service (IBFWS) tool.
The use of this tool in IBFWS has the ability to improve the synergy between NMHSs, NDMAs and citizens that play a
role in hazard mitigation (e.g. flash floods), by bridging the gaps between the four components for effective early
warning systems: ‘risk knowledge’, ‘monitoring and warning service’, ‘dissemination and communication’ and
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‘response capability’. The adoption of such a robust approach is identified as a high priority in the WMO Guidelines
on Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services (2015, WMO-No 1150) as well as in the Multi-hazard
Early Warning Systems: A Checklist (2018). These support the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-
2030 (United Nations, 2015). The aim of the FFGS is to provide a diagnostic value (known as flash flood guidance refer
Fig 5.17 ) that estimates the amount of rainfall of a given duration within a watershed that is required to produce
flooding at the outlet of the catchment. The FFGS is designed to update its values in time and space and to
“remember” rainfall that has already occurred in the catchment. In this way, the FFGS takes account of antecedent
catchment conditions and can calculate the amount of additional rainfall that is needed in order to produce flooding.
When these values are used in real time with nowcasts or in a forecasting capacity, they provide an objective basis to
generate flash flood warnings.
The FFGS provides global coverage to 3 billion people or 40% of the world’s population. The countries using the FFGS
have a combined land surface area of around 25 million square Kilometers, which is equivalent to 18% of the total
land surface area of the world. Specifically, the South Asia Flash Flood Guidance System (SAsiaFFGS) provides coverage
for nearly 51% of the world’s population.
Presently, SAsiaFFGS is in experimental operation catering services to India, Nepal, Bhutan, Srilanka and Bangladesh
this 2019 and it is active through two servers (Computational & Dissemination) hosted at India Meteorological
Department (IMD), India, as Regional Centre of SAsiaFFGS. Upon verification of cases and validation on different
temporal and spatial scales, the same has been on real time operation mode implemented in IMD since August 2020
and outputs are supplied to CWC and MCS/NWFC for improving IBF and warnings.
Salient features of South AsiaFFGS operational in IMD
• FFGS is a robust system to provide support for flash floodswarnings.

• Uses precipitation data from radar & satellite and hydrological models.
• IMD supports Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal & Sri Lanka.
• Provides flash flood guidance for about 30000 watersheds delineated with 30m DEM & other terrain parameters.
• System is currently pre-operational
• IMD issuing bulletins 4 times a day i.e., 0530, 1130, 1730 and 2330 IST to Central Water Commission.
Figure 5.17. FFGS Real time products.( Top figure) 27 cm rainfall resulting in flash floods in Dwarka on 05 July, 20
casued local flodding captured by FGGS (left products) and photo (right)
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5.8. Forecast and Warning dissemination of Heavy rainfall
 Weekly video in YouTube and social media

 Press release National, regional & State levels
 WhatsApp Group : National/Regional/State/district/city level for quick outreach
 Briefing/ Interaction via phone/VC with disaster managers at national, state & district levels
 Warning to sectoral users : CWC, NHAI, Aviation, Indian Railways, municipal corporation, Agriculture Officials,
Farmers, Fishermen
 Public Website (mausam.imd.gov.in)
 IMD Apps like Mausam/DAMINI/RAIN ALARM
 Social Media : Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, BLOG
 Common Alert Protocol, Global Multi-hazard Alert System (GMAS)
Figure 5.18. Dissemination system for heavy Rainfall
125
Annexure 1
Annexure I-on bulletin of 21 and 23 Aug over extremely heavy rainfall over ODSIHA
126
Annexure I
Press-NWFC heavy rainfall bulletin
Press on 25 Aug: 2020
127
Annexure I
(Multi-hazard maps upto day 5)
128
Annexure II
District wise Colour Coded Warnings issued for Heavy Rainfall to Extremely Heavy Rainfall
th
events for 8 August 2019 for Kerala
th th th th th
Date of Issue 4 August 5 August 6 August 7 August 8 August
th th th th th
(8 Aug as (8 Aug as (8 Aug as (8 Aug as (8 Aug as
Districts Day 5) Day 4) Day 3) Day 2) Day 1)
Light to Light to
Thiruvananthapuram Light to Moderate Moderate Light to Moderate Moderate
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Heavy Rainfall
Light to Light to
Kollam Light to Moderate Moderate Light to Moderate Moderate
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Heavy Rainfall
Light to Light to
Pathanamthitta Light to Moderate Moderate Light to Moderate Moderate Heavy to Very
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Heavy rainfall
Light to
Alappuzha Light to Moderate Light to Moderate Moderate Heavy to Very
Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Heavy rainfall
Light to Light to
Kottayam Light to Moderate Moderate Light to Moderate Moderate Heavy to Very
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Heavy rainfall
Light to Moderate Heavy to Very
Ernakulam
Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Heavy rainfall
Light to Moderate Extremely Heavy Extremely Heavy Extremely Extremely Heavy
Idukki
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Rainfall
Light to Moderate Heavy to Very Heavy to Very Heavy to Very Heavy to Very
Thrissur
Rainfall Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall
Light to Moderate Heavy to Very Heavy to Very Heavy to Very
Palakkad
Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall
Light to Moderate Extremely Heavy Extremely Heavy Extremely Extremely Heavy
Malappuram
Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Rainfall
Extremely Heavy Extremely Heavy Extremely Extremely Heavy
Kozhikode
Heavy Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Rainfall
Light to Moderate Heavy to Very Heavy to Very Extremely Heavy
Wayanad
Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall Rainfall
Heavy to Very Heavy to Very Heavy to Very Heavy to Very
Kannur
Heavy Rainfall Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall
Heavy to Very Heavy to Very Heavy to Very Heavy to Very
Kasaragode
Heavy Rainfall Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall Heavy rainfall
Light to Moderate
Lakshadweep
Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Heavy Rainfall
129
Annexure 3
130
Annexure IV (IBF)
131
Annexure IV (IBF)
District based IBF heavy rainfall warnings
Field Level Forecast-District wise and Sub-City based IBF and Color coded warnings
132
Annexure IV (IBF)
City based IBF heavy rainfall warnings-Mumbai
Annexure V
Met Center……..
MUMBAI HEAVY RAINFALL ADVISROY WITH 12-Hourly UPDATE
ADVISROY NO. 1
DATE:18-07-2020 TIME OF ISSUE: 12:00 HRSIST
Forecast based upon 11:30 HRS IST OF 18-07-2020 / 06:00 UTC OF 18.07.2020
06:00UTC of 18 July Mumbai city is likely to get heavy/very heavy/extremely heavy rainfall on 20
July 2020
Next bulletin will be issued at 00:30UTC (06:00IST)
133
Annexure-VI
Met Center Name……..

MUMBAI HEAVY RAINFALL ALERT WITH 12-Hourly UPDATE
ALERT NO. 1
DATE:19-07-2020 TIME OF ISSUE: 12:00 HRSIST
Forecast alert based upon 11:30 HRS IST OF 19-07-2020 / 06:00 UTC OF 19.07.2020
06:00UTC of 19 July Some areas of Mumbai City (if possible specify region like west, east, north,
south, central etc ) are likely to experinces heavy/ very heavy
rainfall/extremely heavy rainfall on 20 July 2020 most likely during
evening/night in the date.
Impact expected
Figure 1 RADAR products over map with location details of the city
Figure 2 Satellite Images zoomed over a region for the city
Next bulletin will be issued at 00:30 UTC (06:00IST)
134
Annexure-VII
Met Center……..
3 HOURLY UPDATE OF ONGOING MUMBAI HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
WARNING NO. 1
DATE:20-07-2020 TIME OF ISSUE: 12:00 HRS IST
DATE/TIME (IST) OF 11:30 HRS IST OF 20-07-2020 / 06:00 UTC OF 20.07.2020

OBSERVATION
Rainfall realized
a)RAINFALL REPORTS LAST 3-HOURS FOR
TIME ENDING AT 11:30IST OF TODAY SATATION NAME WITH TYPE(AWS/SYNOP IMD, ARG, SRG) AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS
b)CUMULATIVE SINCE RAIN EVENT
STARTED AROUND 08:30IST OF TODAY)
Forecast or nowcast As per latest observations, Satacruz and Adnheriareas have Very
intense convective clouds which has the potential to cause heavy to
very heavy rainfall during next ………hrs / during …………. To …….
Hours. and it is likely to last next 2-3 hours causing rainfall likely of 6-
12cm in 3- hours.
Impact expected
Action Suggested
Next bulletin will be issued at 09:30UTC(15:00IST)
References
Achu, A.L., Joseph, S., Aju, C.D. et al., 2021 Preliminary analysis of a catastrophic landslide event on 6 August 2020 at
Pettimudi, Kerala State, India. Landslides https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10346-020-01598-x#citeas
Deshpande, N. R., et al. 2017 "Statistical characteristics of cloud burst and mini‐cloud burst events during monsoon
season in India." International Journal of Climatology 38.11 (2018): 4172-4188.
Dimri, A. P., et al. "Cloudbursts in Indian Himalayas: a review." Earth-Science Reviews 168 (2017): 1-23.
Fischer, Erich M., and RetoKnutti. "Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models." Nature
Climate Change 6.11 (2016): 986-991.
Landerink and Fowler, 2017, Understanding rainfall extreme, https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3305, Nature
Climate Change volume 7, pages391–393(2017).
135
Chapter 6
Thunderstorm Warning Services
6.1. Introduction
Thunderstorms (TS) occur over different parts of the globe with large spatial & temporal as well as diurnal, seasonal
and annual variability. Over Indian region thunderstorms occur throughout the year during different seasons. Its
frequency varies from region to region. Thunderstorm activities during monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons
are mainly governed by the large scale synoptic weather systems with some alterations caused by local topographical
effects. However, the highest frequency and the most severe thunderstorm events occur in general during the pre-
monsoon season (March to May) throughout the length and breadth of the country. In India hundreds of people die
due to phenomena associated with thunderstorms like lightning strikes, squalls and hails etc. The associated squally
winds damage the property like Kachcha houses, thatched huts and asbestos houses, telephone and electric poles and
other structures amounting to crores of rupees every year. Apart from standing crops which get severely damaged, it
also affects transport sector like Highways, railways and aviation resulting in human and revenue losses.
Thunderstorm climatology in India is classified into six broad divisions:
(i) Northeast India (Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura)
(ii) East India (Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and Andaman
& Nicobar Islands)
(iii) Northwest India (East Rajasthan, West Rajasthan, East-Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh
& Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir)
(iv) West India (Gujarat Region, Saurashtra, Kutch & Diu, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada)
(v) Central India (East Madhya Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha)
(vi) Peninsular India (Costal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema, North Interior Karnataka, South Interior
Karnataka, Costal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep)
Intense and high frequency thunderstorm activities during the pre-monsoon season generally occur in East and
Northeast India followed by southwest Peninsular India. The thunderstorm associated with dust storm mostly occurs
over Northwest India. The climatological map of Thunderstorm is shown in Fig. 1. Thunderstorm and squall
climatology of India based on data from 1981-2020 Figs. 2 (a&b).
136
Figure 1. Seasonal thunderstorm climatology over India [AjitTyagi, MAUSAM, 58, 2 (April 2007), 189-212]
137
Figure 2(a). Annual thunderstorm climatology over India based of the period 1981-2010
138
Figure 2(b). Annual Squall climatology over India based of the period 1981-2010
6.2. Objective
In view of the high impact of thunderstorms and its influence on social, cultural, commercial, health, defence and
transport etc.monitoring, prediction and warning of thunderstorm is done by different offices of India Meteorological
Department (IMD). A Standard Operating Procedure (SOP), to provide uniform monitoring and forecasting/warning
services of abovementioned weather eventwas first published in 2012. During recent years due to augmentation in
the monitoring and advancements in forecasting techniques, thunderstorm warnings and its dissemination has
undergone rapid changes. Also the thunderstorm categories and criteria for issuing thunderstorm warnings have been
139
revised. Hence a need is felt to update the existing SOP. This revised SOP document holistically describes the
procedures for monitoring, forecasting and warning dissemination to be followed at different levels of forecasting
offices at IMD.
6.3. Criteria of thunderstorm and associated warning
6.3.1. Thunderstorm warning sand colour codes for warnings
(a) No Thunderstorm (green colour)
(b) Light Thunderstorm: Thunderstorms with maximum surface wind speed less than 40 kmph (in gusts). (Yellow
colour)
(c) Moderate Thunderstorm: Thunderstorms with maximum surface wind speed 41-61 kmph (in gusts/ squall).
(Orange colour)
(d) Severe Thunderstorm: Thunderstorms with maximum surface wind speed 62-87 kmph (in gusts/ squall). (Red
colour)
(e)Very Severe Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms with or without rain with maximum surface wind speed greater than
87 kmph (in gusts/ squall).(Red colour)
(f)Thunderstorms with Hail: Thunderstorm with hail (no gust criteria)(Red colour)
6.3.2. Duststorms warning
(a) Light duststorms: If the wind speed (in gusts) is up to 40 kmph and visibility is less than 1,000 metres but more than
500 meters. (Yellow colour)
(b) Moderate duststorms: If the wind speed (in gusts) is between 41- 61 kmph and visibility is between 200 and 500
metres. (Orange colour)
(c) Severe duststorms: If surface wind speed (in gusts) is between 62 -87 kmph (In gusts) and visibility is between 50-
200 metres. (Red colour)
(d) Severe dust storms: If surface wind speed (in gusts) exceeds 87 kmph (In gusts) and visibility is less than 50 metres.
(Red colour)
6.3.3. Lightning warning
(a) Low Lightning probability (<30% probability of lightning occurrence) (Yellow colour)
(b) Moderate Lightning probability (30 - 60% probability of lightning occurrence) (Orange colour)
(c) High Lightning probability (> 60% probability of lightning occurrence) (Red colour)
6.4. Favourable conditions for thunderstorm occurrence
The following are the basic criteria for thunderstorm:
• Intense surface heating
• Low level moisture
• Conditional Instability of the atmosphere and
• Triggering mechanism
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6.4.1. Synoptic conditions
The triggering mechanism is obtained through synoptic systems like western disturbances.
• Western disturbances
• Low pressure systems like lows, depressions and troughs etc.
• Confluence of winds in lower levels generally below 700 hPa mainly at 850 and 925 hPa level.
• Wind discontinuity at 850 and 925 hPa.
• Interaction of dry and moist winds over particular region at 850 and 925 hPa
• Upper air Jet stream above 300 hPa level
6.4.2. Thermodynamic conditions
• Low level moisture
• Heating in lower levels
• Conditional instability (A layer of unsaturated air when its lapse rate of temperature is less than the dry-adiabatic
lapse rate but greater than the moist-adiabatic lapse rate.)
6.4.3. Dynamic conditions
• High wind shear between 850 and 200 hPa.
• High lower level convergence
• High upper level divergence
• High vorticity below 700 hPa in general at 850 hPa
6.4.4. Thermo-dynamical indices
• Inversion in mid-upper level
• Inversion in mid tropospheric level
• Convective Available Potential Energy
• Convective Inhibition Energy
• Total totals index
• K Index
• Lifted index
• Showalter index
• Cloud condensation level
• Lifting condensation level

0
• High lapse rate (in general more than 7 C/km)
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0
• 0 C isotherm level height to be lower
• Richardson number to be low (in general less than 1).
6.4.5.1. Sample check list for thunderstorm forecasting Products
1. GEFS
a. 3 hourly 10 m wind
b. Genesis Potential
c. Gust wind probability at different thresholds
http://nwp.imd.gov.in/
http://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/hires_gefs/gfs_based.php
2. GFS
a. 10 m wind
b. Gust wind
c. Meteogram
d. Instability indices
http://nwp.imd.gov.in/
3. WRF
a. 10 m wind
b. Meteogram
c. Instability indices
http://nwp.imd.gov.in/, http://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/hires_gefs/wrf_based.php
4. NCUM regional/global
a. 10 m wind
b. Gust maxima
c. EPSgrams
d. Instability indices
(Thresholds values of indices & check list may be modified as per the local requirements at different locations)
6.4.5.2. Dust-storm
Forecast Products in addition to 6.4.5.1
1. NCUM global
a. 3 hourly Dust concentration

b. Visibilityhttp://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/All_times_ind_mihir_00.php
c. Trajectoryhttp://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/product_grid_mihir.php
2. SILAM
a. PM 10 hourly forecast
3. WRF-HYSPLIT
a. Forward trajectory
b. Backward trajectoryhttp://nwp.imd.gov.in/
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6.5. Needed Inputs (data products and their availability)
In order to provide accurate forecast, forecaster at the NWFC/RWFC/SWFC use following data as per Fig. 3.
(a) Observational data
i) Observational data from Surface observatories, RSRW & Pilot Balloon observation, Automatic Weather Station
(AWS), Automatic Weather Observing System (AWOS), Global Positioning System (GPS), Automatic Rain Gauge
(ARG), Wind Profiler, lightning detection network, Microwave Radiometers etc.
ii) Satellite digital data, satellite derived winds, precipitation estimates, sea surface temperature, vertical profiles of
temperature and humidity, outgoing long wave radiation, sea surface winds, liquid water content, wind shear,
vorticity, divergence,convergence of the atmosphere etc. and animation sequences of images and some of the
derivedproducts.
iii) Radar data includes reflectivity, radial velocity and derived products, animation sequences of images and the
derived products.
iv) Current weather observations from Airport met offices.
(b) Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) (as given in point 6.4.5 and other products).
Daily Bulletins Airport Met Digital data from all Products from Nowcasting
from Office products observing systems System
NWFC/SWFC/ (current observation,
satellite and radar
RWFC
products etc.)
Local SYNOP NWFC/RWFC / SWFC City forecasts

Observation
Defence (Airport/ Radar and Satellite NWP model output Diagnostic Charts of
Navy/ Air force/ bulletins, images products including Analysed Data
Army) Meteorological and other products those for
Office observation nowcasting
Figure 3. Data/ products to be considered by NWFC/RWFC/SWFC/AMOs for issue of

forecast of thunderstorm and nowcasting
The forecaster will verify the receipt of products at scheduled time. In case of non-receipt, appropriate action will be
initiated by the forecaster for timely receipt by sending email or through phone / WhatsApp message, to designated
officials responsible in the concerned offices. The forecaster will inform corresponding SWFC/RWFC/ISSD and NWFC
and make suitable effort to rectify the problem.
Forecasts for a particular region or sub-divisions issued at NWFC will be used by respective SWFC / RWFC as guidance
to issue thunderstorm warning as and when warranted. As the ultimate responsibility lies with SWFC/RWFC, it can
issue warning even when there is no guidance received from NWFC. However, NWFC and concerned RWFC should be
informed with the copy of warning bulletin by the SWFC or in video conferencing.
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(i) Suitable computer platform to visualize the data in real time, overlay various types of data, draw contours and
derive useful information from the multiple database.
(ii) Finer resolution Meso-scale model outputs for state/district level as guidance.
The forecaster will be aware of technical systems, contingency plan in case of failure of the system and take
appropriate action.
6.6. Organizations and their responsibilities
As TS is of mesoscale nature, the entire process of observation, prediction & dissemination to the end users should
take place in a very rapid manner. The following divisions of IMD are responsible at various levels for appropriate
thunderstorm and dust storm forecasts and warnings.
The ultimate responsibility of monitoring and issuing thunderstorm warning lies with State Weather Forecasting
Centre (SWFC)/ Regional Weather Forecasting Centre (RWFC)/ Airport Meteorological Office (AMOs). RWFC will issue
thunderstorm warning only for the state for which it issues forecasts as SWFC, e.g. RWFC Kolkata will be responsible
for thunderstorm warning over the state of West Bengal. The SWFC/RWFC will be responsible for monitoring and
disseminating the thunderstorm information and warning as shown in the block diagram Fig. 4.
In case of system failure at any SWFC, concerned RWFC will take over the duties and responsibilities till the restoration
of the system.
• There will be two-way information exchanges between SWFC/ RWFC on one side and NWFC, AMO, RWFC, Mega
City forecast centre (SWFCFC), Nowcast cell and Defence Meteorological Office on the other side.
• There will be no dilutions of charter of mandate in respect of AMO by exchange of information between
SWFC/RWFC and AMO in relation to the thunderstorm warning issued by AMO.
• Thunderstorm warning system will be linked with Media Website (TV, Newspaper, etc.), private/ industries
organizations, etc. through Public Weather Service (PWS) of IMD.
NWP NWFC Airport Met RWFC Field Offices

division Office
Urban Met
Services
Satmet and Radar
Nowcast cell Forecast for Tourist

SWFC / RWFC Place and Highways
Private/Industry
Media
users, other
(TV/radio/Mobile/
organisations
Newspaper)
Defence VIP Disaster Cultural Events,

(Airport/Navy/ movements managers Games events
Airforce)
Figure 4. Thunderstorm warning structure at RWFC/SWFC

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6.6.1. NWP Division
This group will provide necessary inputs in term of charts, dynamic/thermodynamic products charts, meteograms
based on the model predictions in regional scale, 12km/3km/1Km over a particular region/area/division/city to
forecasting centre. The NWP officer-in-charge/duty officer has to periodically update/review and inform the status
NWFC, RWFC and SWFC at the interval of their model rerun outputs (6/12 hrs).
6.6.2. NWFC
The NWFC will provide details about potential for occurrence of Thunderstorms120, 96, 72, 48 and 24 hrs in advance
for a specific area (meteorological subdivision or a part of it) to RWFC/SWFC and revise/update/review the report
periodically every six hours. The report should also include the level of confidence about the forecasted event (such as
most likely, very likely, likely and unlikely) and the colour codes indicating the possible impacts. The NWFC duty officer
will maintain round the clock watch and coordinate with SWFC/RWFC for timely TS warning.
6.6.3. Sat Met Application Cell
It will carry out carry out interpretation and analysis of thunderstorm over a specific area. A proper round the clock
watch is to be kept; It will communicate findings and thunderstorm developments and keep NWFC/RWFC/SWFC
informed through structured bulletins over phone/e-mail/fax/SMS/WhatsApp etc.
6.6.4. Radar Application
The DWR stations will monitor the development and movement of the Mesoscale Convective Complexes and other
important features relevant to the development of thunderstorms over their region. It will keep NWFC/RWFC/SWFC
informed time to time through structured bulletins over phone/e-mail/fax/SMS/WhatsApp etc. It will issue every 10
minutes real time updates of DWR products.
6.6.5. RWFCs/SWFCs
The RWFCs/SWFCs play a major role in monitoring, forecasting and warning of Thunderstorm. It will decide on the
scale and intensity of thunderstorm events its time of occurrence and the impact expected based on collective
observations on real time and the past events. They shall all have local Thunderstorm climatology and local
forecasting thumb rules for respective region/area prepared and kept available; (These documents are to be
reviewed/ revised periodically. Pre-season exercise is to be carried out on the documents every year). RWFCs and
SWFCs will perform the monitoring mechanism for disseminate of warning products, actual occurrence and feedback
from the Field offices. The warnings will be verified on daily basis and consolidated report will be prepared on monthly
basis. They will utilize all the data and products as mentioned in 6.5.
6.6.6. Field offices (Observatories and Met offices)
The field offices will have a good rapport with the other nearby government agencies and institutions through which
they can collect truthful representation of the weather event for a post validation of the warning reports. They will
provide real-time observations round the clock using existing telecommunication system to SWFC. They will also
differentiate the thunderstorm warning for new region (districts) through WhatsApp group, phone, email to the
district authorities and media on real time basis. They will also verify the warnings issued for their region and provide
to NWFC.
6.7. Monitoring and forecasting
6.7.1. Monitoring
The essence of thunderstorm warning is timely and correct analysis of all the inputs in real time because of short
lifespan of such weather events. The primary responsibility of detecting and monitoring lies with the SWFC / RWFC
forecaster. However, the following offices will also provide their inputs to forecasting office:
• Observatories
145
• Radar field office
• Satellite Division
• Airport Met office
• FMO (During monsoon season)
• NWP Division
They will detect and inform the RWFC/SWFC about any impending weather activity over a particular area. It is also the
responsibility of the RWFC/ SWFC forecaster to be pro-actively in touch with all agencies providing inputs.
The monitoring for nowcasting involves the following steps.
• Routine retrieval and review of scheduled bulletins and products issued by SWFC/RWFC/AMO/FMO/NWP/
NWFC etc.
• Routine retrieval and review of all remotely sensed data (Satellite, Radar and Lightning etc.)
• Maintenance of continuous watch.
6.7.2. Analysis and Forecasting
Thunderstorms and associated weather guidance, warnings and advisories are issued by different offices and with
different lead times.
• Nowcast guidance for 48 and 24 hrs is issued by nowcasting division (NWFC at IMD, HQ).
• NWFC/RWFC/SWFC issues forecasts and warnings for thunderstorms for next 5 days.
• Forecasts and warnings by RADARS stations: Thunderstorm warning is issued whenever a convective cell is
developed within the Radar range or approaches the radar range from outside. This warning is issued for entire
life span of thunderstorm.
• Thunderstorm warnings are issued by AMOs whenever thunderstorm is likely to affect the particular airport.
If sufficient lead time is not available, the Thunderstorm outlook and Thunderstorm Forecast Bulletins shall be issued
in succession by the respective offices and Thunderstorm warning bulletin will be issued accordingly by
RWFC/SWFC/AMOs. As per Appenix-1.
146
6.7.3. Decision making process(Decision tree for forecasting of Thunderstorm)
Note : Similar decision tree, specific to the stations, for other severe weather phenomena such as dust storm and
lightning has to be prepared by respective stations/MCs
6.7.4. Timeline for analysis, forecast and dissemination
Issue of thunderstorm warning involves mostly meso-scale weather events with short spatial and temporal scale.
Thus, lead time and frequency of issuing the thunderstorm warning will play a vital role in its successful
implementation. Various stages of meso-scale processes, i.e. monitoring, analysis, detection, decision making process
of warnings will have to be synchronized, so that the objective of thunderstorm warning is achieved efficiently.
Sub-divisional level guidance will be issued by NWFC at time scale of 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hours with updates 4
times a day.All forecast/warnings will be issued at the time scale in short to medium range and upto 3 hours in
nowcast of 12, 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hrs in short to medium range and upto 3 hours in nowcast range and spatial
scale of districts for short to medium range forecast and district/stations in nowcast range from corresponding
SWFC/RWFC. The time-line for this purpose is given below.
HH : Appreciation of the scenario through synoptic and NWP analysis and forecast
(Analysis of hourly data and products (satellite, AWS, ARG, METAR, Special Report etc)
HH+1: Preparation of Check list and decision making
HH+2: Generation of warning bulletin and product
HH+2.5: Uploading and dissemination
147
6.7.5. Forecast/ warning products
The thunderstorm warning product consists of:
(i) Text product

(ii) Visual Products
(iii) Impact based forecasts and suggested actions
Occurrence of impending weather event will be depicted in the district/station level map/bulletins with related
weather symbols, animation etc.
• At each forecast hour, duty forecaster will issue a summary message on the basis of observations and messages
received.
• In case severe weather occurrence is expected, from the various inputs, for the region of forecast of the
SWFC/RWFC, the duty forecaster will issue brief characteristics of the severe system and necessary warnings.
• The forecast will be issued four times a day based on general weather forecast from NWFC, two times from
RWFC/SWFC and whenever required from AMOs.
6.8. Forecast/Warning Dissemination
The NWFC will issue the Thunderstorm outlook twice daily valid for day 1 (24 hrs) and day 2 (24-48 hrs) and
Thunderstorm forecast bulletins upto day 5 days four times daily. It should contain probable impact of the event at
subdivision and part of subdivision level. It shall be disseminating the bulletin to all RWFCs/SWFCs/PWS through e-
mail, fax, telephonic network, SMS etc. It will act to identify the potential area for possible occurrence of TS for a day
and will trigger intensive watch by RWFC/SWFC for that period over that region.
High impact Thunderstorm Warning bulletin shall be disseminated to State Disaster Management Authority cells /
relief commissioners, District Disaster Management Authority, AIR and DOORDARSHAN. The classifications of high
impact Thunderstorm events are given in Appendix 1. At national level, as soon as NWFC receives information about
the severe weather events likely to cause widespread damage to a particular region, NWFC will inform the concerned
authority at national level.
In addition, dissemination of high impact thunderstorm (thunderstorm associated with severe squall) warning bulletin
to the general public through SMS/WhatsApp based text messages as prescribed in Appendix 2-5 will be issued. The
Thunderstorm Warning bulletin issued by RWFCs/SWFCs shall also be made available to NWFC. Higher officers of IMD
shall be kept informed by NWFC on Thunderstorm warning, for further necessary action as required.
Table 1
Checklist for dissemination of thunderstorm warning bulletin

Bulletin
issuing End user Mode of dissemination Time of receipt by end user
authority
NWFC All met offices like Website, Email Facebook, (i)General Bulletins
RWFCs/SWFCs/AMOs and Disaster Twitter, TV/Print Media,
0830,1330,1630&2130hrs IST
managers, Media and Public WhatsApp (ii)Thunderstorm Guidance
1330 &1730 hrs IST
RWFCs and Railways, Transport Dept. Power sector, Website, e-mail, Facebook, i)General
MCs Irrigation Dept. Revenue Dept. Health Twitter, TV/Print Media, Bulletins1330&2130hrs IST
Dept. DMs, SDMA & DDMA and other WhatApp (ii)Nowcast: Every 3 hours
local Govt. agencies like Municipal
Corporation etc. Median and public
Radar RWFC/SWFC /NWFC, Local SMS/WhatsApp/email/ As and when required
Stations Administration if entrusted by SWFC Tweeter/TV/print media direct
to the end users,
AMOs Airport Authority, Airport managers OLBS, telephone and personal As and when required
and operators briefing
148
The forecast will follow the standard dissemination procedure. The forecaster will verify the dissemination of products
to end user through a checklist as mentioned above.
The forecaster will provide appropriate oral briefing to disaster managers as and when required. The briefing should
be timely, concise, relevant and consistent with the forecast; the feedback from the user should be solicited.
6.9. Post Event Review, feedback and documentation
Depending on the severity of the thunderstorm event, the RWFC would decide on conducting a post analysis. The high
impact severe thunderstorm events (resulting in tornado generation, down bursts, hailstorms etc) causing much of
the damage to the life and property shall be recorded to the fullest extent inclusive of field survey. A
survey/inspection team constituted by RWFC in consultation with SWFC shall be deputed to the affected area within a
short span of time to take the first hand assessment of the event. The guidelines for the surveying/inspection team
are given in Appendix 6.
The brief report/documentation of the severe thunderstorm including weather system, occurrence of
thunderstorm,forecast/warning issued and verification, to whom issued and time of issue is to be submitted to the
NWFC within 24 hours of occurrence. Detailed report to be prepared within 7 days.
6.10. Pre-season exercise
All RWFC/SWFCs and NWFC should have
• season wise forecasting hints
• checklists for forecasting of major events both qualitatively (synoptically) as well as quantitatively (various
dynamic/thermodynamic parameters) which must be kept ready on the forecaster’s desk.
• suitable training (Refresher) programme for the forecasters for thunderstorm monitoring and forecasting in
regular intervals, at least once in a year.
• Conduct lecture series for the benefit of forecasters in the beginning of each season
• Conduct meetings with stakeholders including disaster managers and media.
6.11. Conclusions
Successful implementation of thunderstorm SOP will depend on
(i) Availability of proper and adequate trained manpower at NWFC/RWFC/SWFC and AMOs,
(ii) IT infrastructure and effective communication between various agencies for reception/dissemination of data,
information and warnings and
(iii) Continuous evaluation/verification and hence update of the procedure and warning products at forecasting
centres.
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Appendix-1
Classifications of Thunderstorm events
Category/Wind Structures Communication & Agriculture Suggested Actions

Speed Power
Light Nil Nil Nil Nil

Thunderstorm
<40 kmph (21
knots)
Moderate Minor damage Nil Minor damage to People are advised to keep
Thunderstorms to loose / Banana trees. a watch on the weather for
41 —61 kmph unsecured Damage to ripe worsening conditions and
(22-33 knots) structures paddy crops. be ready to move to safer
places accordingly.
Severe Damage to Minor damage to Some damage to People are advised to take
Thunderstorms thatched huts. power and paddy crops, shelter in pukka structures
62-87 kmph communication banana, papaya and avoid taking shelter
(34-47 knots) lines due to trees and orchards under trees. Farming
breaking of and Standing crops. operations to be
branches. temporarily suspended
during occurrence of event.
Also move away from
electric poles and wires.
Very Severe Major damage Minor damage to Breaking of tree People are advised to stay
Thunderstorms to thatched power and branches, away from weak walls and
Greater than 87 houses/ huts. communication uprooting of large structures and take shelter
kmph {(47Kt) in Roof tops may lines. avenue trees. in pukka structures. People
gusts/ squall} blow off. Moderate damage in affected areas to remain
Unattached to banana and indoors and avoid water
metal sheets papaya trees. Large bodies and flying projectiles.
may fly. dead limbs blown Farming operations to be
from trees. temporarily suspended
Damage to during occurrence of event.
Standing crops.
Thunderstorm Major damage The fruit, vegetable People are advised to stay
associated with to Kutcha and field crops at away from weak walls and
Hailstorm structures and maturity stages are structures and take shelter
tin and more prone to in pukka structures. People
asbestos damage. Damage in affected areas to remain
roofed houses, to Standing crops. indoors.
cars
150
Appendix-1
An example of MC level forecast of Thunderstorms

th
Doppler Weather Radar Bhopal (Nowcast bulletin 18 August 2020/12:30 IST)
151
Appendix-2
SEVERE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN FORMAT

(SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE FOR NOWCAST)
(for Day-1)
Date: Time of issue:
Chief Synoptic Features:
Under this heading there should be a point wise mentioning of Chief Synoptic features observed. For Eg.
♦ThemonsoontroughatmeansealevelnowpassesthroughBikaner,Alwar,Gwalior,Banda,Siddhi,Ranchi,Bankura,Canninga
ndthencesoutheastwardstoNortheastBayofBengalandextendsupto1.5kmabovemeansealevel.
♦ThecycloniccirculationoversouthPunjab&neighbourhoodnowliesovernorthwestRajasthan&neighbourhoodandextend
supto1.5kmabovemeansealevel.
IOP Area for Day-1 (valid upto 0830 IST of next day)
IOP Advisory for 24 hours (Subdivisions wherever it is expected should be mentioned under the appropriate
heading)
Significant Rainfall:
Thunderstorm with Squally Winds (50-60 kmph and more) and lightning:
Thunderstorm with Gusty Winds (upto 40-50 kmph) and lightning:
Thunderstorm with Gusty Winds (upto 30-40 kmph) and lightning:
Thunderstorm with Lightning:
Thunderstorm with Hail and lightning:
Thunderstorm with Dust storm and lightning:
Dust raising winds:
Visibility: <50m: <200m:
Graphical Presentation of Potential Areas for Severe Weather (IOP) for Day-1:
(Valid upto 0830 IST of next day)

th
The potential areas for Severe Weather should be graphically presented as the following example for 18 Aug, 2020.
152
153
Appendix-3
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK BULLETIN

(Based on 03 UTC / 12 UTC)
TOO:........hrs IST on date............. VALIDITY: 48hrs from 00 UTC of date...........
(1) Conditions are favourable for Scattered/fairly-widespread, moderate/ severe Thunderstorms/ Dust-
storms/Hail storm over ………...............……(meteorological subdivision), during next 24/48/72/96/120 hours. Strong
surface wind associated with squall may reach or exceed ...........kt.
(2) Conditions are favourable for Scattered/fairly-widespread, moderate/ severe Thunderstorms/ Dust-
storms/Hail storm over ………...............……(meteorological subdivision), during next 24/48/72/96/120 hours. Strong
surface wind associated with squall may reach or exceed ...........kt.
(3) So on as per requirement....
Appendix-4
FORMAT OF THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BULLETIN ISSUEDBY NWFC
(Based on 03 UTC / 12 UTC)
TOO:........hrs IST on date.............VALIDITY: 24hrs from 00 UTC of date...........
(1) Conditions remain favourable /becoming more favourable/ less favourableforScattered/fairly-

widespread, moderate/severe Thunderstorm over ………...............….....…(meteorological subdivision & part of it),
during the period ……………. To ……………. with wind approaching from ...... (16point scale) direction and speed reaching
………………… kt/kmph. The following events: squall/dust-storm/heavy-shower/hail are likely to cause scattered/wide-
spread damage to life and property.
(2) Conditions remain favourable /becoming more favourable/ less favourableforScattered/fairly-

widespread, moderate/severe Thunderstorm over ………...............….....…(meteorological subdivision & part of it),
during the period ……………. To ……………. with wind approaching from.... (16 point scale) direction and speed reaching
………………… kt/kmph. The following events: squall/dust-storm/heavy-shower/hail are likely to cause scattered/wide-
spread damage to life and property.
Appendix-5
FORMAT OF THUNDERSTORM WARNING BULLETTIN ISSUEDBY RWFC/SWFC

(Based on 18 UTC)
TOO:........hrs IST on date............. VALIDITY: 12 Hrsfrom .....00 UTC of date...........
Moderate/SevereThunderstorm/Dust-storm/Hail-Stormwould/will affect over ………...............……(district/city), during

the period from ……………. to ……...…. . It is likely to cause
a. Strong surface wind from......... (direction) and speed may reach/exceed ……kt/kmphand may cause damages
to property/ life......................................
............................................................................................................................................................................……………....
(based on Beaufort scale estimate)
b. Heavy/very Heavy/extremely heavy rainfall over the area and may lead to flood.
c. Hail, leading damage to life and property
d. Suspended dust particles, affecting visibility.
Note:
a, b, c and/or d as applicable/relevant to be given by the issuing office
154
Appendix-5
FORMAT OF SMS/WhatsApp based nowcast bulletin
Thunderstorm warning
Through SMS for general public
HIGH IMPACT THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN/LIGHTNING/HAIL/GUSTY-WINDLIKELY/WILL BY .......IST over

the……..(area). ADVISED TO TAKE SHELTER INDOORS.
Appendix-6
GUIDELINES FOR THE SURVEYING/INSPECTION TEAM
1. Photographs of the affected areas, depicting loss/damages to property and life.

2. Interview with the public and analysis on,
i. Optical account of the event:

a. Shape of the clouds (Funnel/Trunk/..)
b. Sky conditions
c. Situation prevailing
d. Hail size and shape
e. Lightning frequency and location of hit
ii. Acoustic account of the event:

a. Vibrations felt
b. Sound type (hissing/roaring/rumbling/...)
iii. Impact account of the event:

a. Heavy objects twisted/turned upside-down/lifted/etc
b. Dent and pit marks in objects
c. Pattern of twist in stationary objects poles/trees etc
d. Orientation of fallen trees/poles/etc
e. Catastrophe of the event
f. Wind estimate based on Beaufort scale
g. Swath of impact
h. Areal cover of damage zone
General details on the causalities/ damages/ photographs/videos and situation prevailing and additional details as felt
necessary by the surveyor/surveying team.
155
Chapter 7
Heat and Cold Wave Monitoring & Warning Services
7.1. Objective
The heat waves, periods of sustained high temperature and high humidity, have long been recognized as a significant
weather hazard. The degree of discomfort that is felt during the hot weather period depends significantly on
combined effect of the humidity of the air as well as the actual air temperature. An abnormal heat results from the
increase of temperature can impose severe physiological stress and can adversely affect the life, health and well being
of human society. The threshold ambient temperature at which, heat-related health complications varies greatly by
0
location. However, in general, when summer temperatures increases to a value more than 40 C, incidences of heat-
related illness such as heatstroke, hyperthermia, and dehydration increase dramatically. High humidity compounds
the effects of high heat by reducing evaporation, rendering perspiration a less-effective cooling mechanism.
Similar to the heat wave during summer the country India also suffers from severe winter and associated cold wave
because of very low minimum temperature. Like the humidity in the heat wave case the wind speed in case of cold
wave further compounded the effect of wind chill. Many parts of northern & central India generally experiences cold
wave conditions during winter season.
Though the heat and cold waves are rarely given less sensational coverage as other natural disasters, it is one of the
most severe disasters like heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and cyclones. There are lot of casualties every year due to
heat and cold wave conditions over India. Attempts have to be made to forecast these killer disaster on real time
basis and the timely warning of the same will be very helpful not only for the general public but also for various users.
Objective is to examine the present criteria used in defining the heat wave & cold waves over India and also to define
the procedure of delivering the warnings.
Sudden rise in temperature in summer can cause various health problems to the people who are exposed to direct
sunlight. Similarly, the severe winter also can cause health problem for elderly people, children going to school and
various operations. Thus, there is a need for the monitoring as well as forecasting of the same, which will be very
beneficial for general public, children and also for other users. This has also got vast commercial applications to
various sectors like Aviation, Power, Industries and Agriculture etc. Thus, there is a need:-
♦ To estimate climate - stress on:

 human tolerance
 crop tolerance
 water resources
♦ To sensitize authorities and providing them with decision making options
♦ To satisfy specific sectorial requests for:

 estimating power demand
 transportation costs and safety
 industrial productivity
 agricultural productivity
 individuals/ organizations requiring to take preventive actions
7.2. Observational aspects
The winter season from January to February (JF) is the winter time in almost all over India. However, the minimum
0
temperatures (Tmin) drop below 8 C over many parts of northern India during the month of November to February
(Figs. 7.1a - 7.1d) as seen from the normal Tmin during the period 1981 to 2010. December and January are the
0
coldest months over northern India with normal Tmin less than 8 C over its many parts (Fig. 7.1b & 7.1c). This region
also experiences cold wave during these months. Normally winters are dry in northern India, although it gets rainfall
156
associated with western disturbances. After the passage of western disturbances, dry cold northwesterly winds
penetrated into northern & central India. As a result, minimum temperatures drop over the regions and sometimes
cause cold wave conditions. In southern parts, the temperature difference is not so marked due to moderating effect
of Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea (Fig. 7.1a to 7.1d).
Figure 7.1. Normal Tmin duringNovember to February (1981-2010)
The average numbers of cold wave days are given in Table 7.1. These are highest over plains of northwest & adjoining
central India with annual average numbers 6-8 days.
157
Table 7.1
Average Number of Cold Wave days
S. No. State/UT 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-19

1. Punjab 6 6 6 7 3
2. Haryana 9 4 3 5 9
3. Delhi 4 3 4 5 4
4. UP 8 3 2 4 6
5. Rajasthan 11 8 4 5 4
6. Sikkim 1 12 0 1 0
7. Assam 3 2 0 0 1
8. Madhya Pradesh 9 5 4 3 5
9. West Bengal 3 1 1 1 2
10. Bihar 5 4 3 4 6
11. Gujarat 6 4 2 3 1
12. Jharkhand 7 2 1 5 4
13. Odissa 2 3 1 2 3
14. Tripura 5 2 3 1 2
15. Chattisgarh 3 5 3 3 6
16. Maharashtra 7 2 5 3 5
17. Telangana 6 2 6 4 6
18. Andhra Pradesh 3 1 1 7 7
19. Karnataka 1 0 0 0 0
20. Tamil Nadu 2 2 2 2 0
0
The March, April and May are the summer months in India. The average temperature is around 32 C but in northwest
& central India, the maximum temperature (Tmax) can be far above the average. Hot wind known as 'Loo' is the
marked feature of summers in northern India. The normal Tmax during the hot weather season from March to June is
0
shown in Fig. 7.2a -7.2d. Fig. 7.2a shows that the Tmax are more than 36 C over central parts of India during March,
0
whereas during the month of April (Fig. 7.2b) the isotherm line more than 38 C covers almost the large parts of India
0
with a small pocket of central India with temperatures > 40 C. During the month of May, the Tmax increases and
0
exceeds more than 40 C over the large parts of India covering northwestern parts of the country extending towards
the Indo Gangetic plain (Fig. 7.2c).
During the month of June though the monsoon currents cools the southern parts of the country, the Tmax remains
0
more than 40 C over northwestern parts of the country (Fig. 7.2d). In general, heat wave occurs over plains of
northwest India, Central, East & north Peninsular India during March to June. It covers Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar
Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, parts of Maharashtra &
Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telengana. Sometimes it occurs over Tamilnadu & Kerala also. Heat waves adversely
affect human and animal lives. However, maximum temperatures more than 45°C observed mainly over Rajasthan
and Vidarbha region in month of May. The average numbers of cold wave days are given in Table 7.2. These are
highest over plains of northwest India with annual average numbers 6-8 days.
158
Fig. 7.2.Normal Tmax during March to June (1981-2010)
Table 7.2.
Average Number of Heat Wave days
S. No. State / UT 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-19

1. Andhra Pradesh 10 9 9 9 11
2. Bihar 7 5 4 6 8
3. Chhattisgarh 2 3 3 5 3
4. Delhi 4 3 6 7 6
5. Gujarat 2 2 2 3 2
6. Haryana 8 9 10 12 8
7. Jharkhand 5 3 2 7 9
8. Karnataka 1 1 2 1 1
9. Kerala 0 0 0 0 0
10. Madhya Pradesh 4 4 5 6 7
11. Maharashtra 4 3 4 6 6
12. Odisha 9 5 5 11 11
13. Punjab 8 5 6 9 8
14. Rajasthan 6 8 10 10 12
15. Tamil Nadu 4 4 4 5 5
16. Telangana 5 6 6 4 6
17. Uttar Pradesh 9 7 8 6 8
18. West Bengal 5 2 3 2 4
159
7.3. Analysis of the observations and declaration of Heat wave/cold wave
IMD has a big network of surface observatories covering entire country to measure various metrological parameters
like Temperature, Relative humidity, pressure, wind speed & direction etc. Based on daily maximum/ minimum
temperature station data, climatology of maximum/ minimum temperature is prepared for the period 1981-2010 to
find out normal maximum/ minimum temperature of the day for particular station. Thereafter, IMD declared heat
wave/ cold wave over the region as per the IMD Forecasting Circular No. 5/2015 (3.7).
7.3.1. Criterion for declaring heat wave

0
Heat wave is considered if maximum temperature of a station reaches at least 40 C or more for Plains and at least
0
30 C or more for Hilly regions.
 Based on Departure from Normal

0 0
Heat Wave: Departure from normal is 4.5 C to 6.4 C
0
Severe Heat Wave: Departure from normal is >6.4 C
 Based on Actual Maximum Temperature

0
Heat Wave: When actual maximum temperature ≥ 45 C
0
Severe Heat Wave: When actual maximum temperature ≥47 C
If above criteria met at least in 2 stations in a Meteorological sub-division for at least two consecutive days and it
declared on the second day.
 Criterion for describing Heat Wave for coastal stations

0
When maximum temperature departure is 4.5 C or more from normal, Heat Wave may be described provided actual
0
maximum temperature is 37 C or more.
 Criterion for warm night

0
It is considered only when maximum temperature remains 40 C or more. It is defined based on departures or actual
minimum temperatures as follows:
0 0
Warm night: minimum temperature departure is 4.5 C to 6.4 C
0
Very warm night: minimum temperature departure is >6.4 C
7.3.2. Criterion for declaring Cold Wave
It should be based on the actual minimum temperature of a station.Cold Wave is considered when minimum
0
temperature of a station is 10.0 C or less for plains and 0°C or less for Hilly regions.
 Based on Departure:
Cold Wave: -ve departure from normal is 4.5°C to 6.4°C

Severe Cold Wave: -ve departure from normal is more than 6.4°C
 Based on Actual Minimum Temperature (For plain stations only)
Cold Wave: When minimum temperature is ≤ 04°C

Severe Cold Wave: When minimum temperature is ≤ 02°C
Cold Day
It should be considered when minimum temperature is 10.0°C or less for plains and 0°C or less for Hilly regions.
Cold day: Maximum Temperature Departure is -4.5°C to -6.4°C
Severe Cold day: Maximum Temperature Departure is < -6.4°C
160
 Cold Wave conditions for coastal stations
When departure is -4.5°C or minimum temperature less over a station, “Cold Wave” may be described if the minimum
temperature is 15.0C or less.
Cold day/cold wave or heat wave/warm night should be described, if conditions are satisfied simultaneously.
7.3.3. Meteorological favorable conditions for Heat wave
 Transportation / Prevalence of hot dry air over a region (There should be a region of warm dry air and
appropriate flow pattern for transporting hot air over the region).
 Absence of moisture in the upper atmosphere (As the presence of moisture restricts the temperature rise).
 The sky should be practically cloudless (To allow maximum insulation over the region).
 Large amplitude anti-cyclonic flow over the area.
Heat waves generally develop over Northwest India and spread gradually eastwards & southwards but not westwards
(since the prevailing winds during the season are westerly to northwesterly). But on some occasions, heat wave may
also develop over any region in situ under the favorable conditions.
7.3.4. Meteorological favourable conditions for Cold Wave
As cold wave conditions are associated with fall in minimum temperatures during the winter season. In this season,
generally cold northwesterly winds prevail over the Indo- Gangetic Plains (IGPs). These winds come from colder
regions of Central Asia/ Hindukush region and fall the temperatures over the IGP, as results, cold wave conditions
prevail over the region. In general,
• Whenever a Western Disturbance (WD) approaches IGP, clouds develop over the region, maximum temperature
fall and minimum temperature rise over the region. Thus, Cold Wave conditions over IGP get abated at the
approach of a WD.
• When a WD moves away from the Indian region, clear skies start appearing over the IGP leading to rise in
maximum and fall in minimum temperatures.
• Whenever a WD approaches north India, winds in lower levels over the region are either from Arabian Sea or
from both Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea. As both types of these winds are the moist, as a result, minimum
temperatures rise over the region. At the same time, clouding over the region leads to lesser penetration of solar
insolation into the earth and hence falls in maximum temperatures.
• Formation of an anticyclone in lower & mid tropospheric levels is also a driver of cold waves. Such an anti-
cyclone gives rise to sinking motion over the IGP leading to fall in minimum temperatures.
• Left entrance and right exit of a Jet core belong to upper level convergence which in turn causes sinking motion
over the surface hence causecold wave conditions.
7.4. Role and responsibility of different offices of IMD
At Meteorological Centre (MC) the heat/cold wave will be monitored for the state under the supervision of MC In-
charge.
 At Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC)/ National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC), there should be round
the clock duty headed by of Group-A officer if available, otherwise work may be managed by trained officials
under the supervision of Group-A Officer.
 NWFC to issue colour coded impact based heat/cold wave warning (Table 7.3 & 7.4) from Day 1 to Day 5 for all
the 36 sub-divisions of the India.
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 MC/RMC to issue colour coded impact based heat/cold wave warning from Day 1 to Day 5 for all the districts
of the respective state.
Table 7.3.
Impact based colour coded alert & warning for heat wave
Colour Code Alert Warning Impact Suggested Actions
Green Normal Day Maximum temperatures Comfortable Nil

(Noaction) are near normal. temperature. No
cautionary action
required.
Yellow Alert Heat Alert Heat wave conditions at Moderate temperature.  Avoid heat
(Be updated) isolated pockets persists Heat is tolerable for exposure.
on 2 days general public but  Wear
moderate health lightweight, light-
concern for vulnerable coloured, loose, cotton
people e.g. infants, clothes.
elderly, people with  Cover your head:
chronic diseases Use a cloth, hat or
umbrella
Orange Alert Severe Heat (i) Severe heat wave High temperature.  Avoid heat
(Be prepared) Alert for the conditions persists for 2
Increased likelihood of exposure– keep cool.
day days heat illness symptoms in Avoid dehydration.
(ii) Through not severe,people who are either  Drink sufficient
but heat wave persists exposed to sun for a water- even if not thirsty.
for 4 days or more prolonged period or  Use ORS,
doing heavy work. High homemade drinks like
health concern for lassi, torani (rice water),
vulnerable people e.g. lemon water, buttermilk,
infants, elderly, etc. to keep yourself
peoplewith chronic hydrated
diseases.
Red Alert Extreme (i) Severe heat wave Very high likelihood of Extreme care needed for
(Take Action) Heat Alert persists for more than 2 developing heat illness vulnerable people.
for the day days. and heat stroke in all
(ii) Total number of ages.
heat/severe heat wave
days exceeding 6 days.
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Table 7.4.
Impact based colour coded alert & warning for cold wave
Colour
Alert Warnings Impact Suggested Action
code
Green Normal Minimum Comfortable temperature. No precautionary action required.
(No Action) day temperatures
are near
normal.
Yellow Cold Cold wave  Moderate  Avoid prolonged exposure
Alert Wave conditions in temperature. Chilly winds to cold.
(Be Alert isolated areas may aggravate cold at time.  Wear several layers of loose
Updated) persist for Two  Cold is tolerable but fitting, light weight; warm woolen
days. mild health concern for clothing rather than one layer of
vulnerable people. (Infants, heavy cloth.
pregnant women, elderly,  Cover your head, neck,
people with chronic diseases hands and toes adequately as
etc.) majority of heat loss occurs through
these body parts.
Orange Severe (I) Severe cold  An increased  Listen to radio; watch TV,
Alert Cold wave likelihood of various illnesses read newspaper for weather
(Be Wave conditions like flu, running/ stuffy nose updates/ forecasts.
Prepared) Alert persist for two or nosebleed, which usually  Wear insulated/waterproof
days. set in or get aggravated due shoes.
(II) Though not to prolonged exposure to  Moisturize your skin
severe, but cold. regularly with oil, petroleum jelly or
cold wave  Do not ignore body cream.
conditions shivering. It is the first sign  Eat healthy fruits and
persist for Four that the body is losing heat. vegetables rich vitamin-C and drink
days or more. Get Indoors. lots of fluids to maintain adequate
 Frostbite can occur immunity.
due to prolonged exposure  Avoid or limit outdoor
to cold. The skin turns pale, activities.
hard and numb and  Keep dry, if wet, change
eventually black blisters cloths immediately to prevent loss of
appear on exposed body body heat.
parts such as fingers, toes,  Warm the affected area of
nose and or earlobes. the body slowly with lukewarm
 Severe frostbite water; do not rub the skin
needs immediate medical vigorously.
attention and treatment.  If the affected skin area
turns black, immediately consult a
doctor.
 Maintain ventilation while
using Heaters to avoid inhaling toxic
fumes.
 Take safety measures while
using electrical and gas heating
devices.
 Don't drink alcohol. It
reduces your body temperature.
 Drink hot drinks regularly.
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Red Alert (I)Severe cold  Severe exposure to  Along with suggested action
(Take wave cold wave can lead to for orange alert, extreme care
Action) conditions Hypothermia; a decrease in needed for vulnerable people.
persist for body temperature which  Regularly check on elderly
more than two cause confusion, shivering, neighbours, especially those who live
days. difficulty in speaking, alone. Stay Indoors, if possible.
(II)Total sleepiness, stiff muscles, Avoid unnecessary exertion.
number of cold heavy breathing, weakness  Locate designated public
wave/severe and/or loss of shelter nearby.
cold consciousness. Hypothermia  In case of electricity or
wave/days is a medical emergency that heating mechanism failure, take the
exceeding Six needs immediate medical affected person to such designated
days. attention. shelters.
 Frost and cold wave  Seek medical attention as
affect pulse crops and soon as possible for someone
livestock. suffering from frostbite/
Hypothermia.
 Do not give the affected
person any fluids unless fully alert.
 Store adequate water as
pipes may freeze.
 Move pets indoors.
Likewise, protect livestock or other
big animals from cold weather by
moving them to an enclosure.
7.5. Warning Product generation, presentation and dissemination
For issuing Heat/Cold Wave, following inputs are to be considered, such as surface and upper air charts, change chart,
T-phi gram, Radar & Satellite products and guidance from various global & regional Numerical Weather Prediction
(NWP) models used by IMD includes IMD Global Forecast System (GFS), NCEP GFS, NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM),
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of MoES, NCMRWF Ensemble Prediction System (NEPS), European Centre for
Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) model, Regional Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Model of IMD
and NCMRWF regional (NCUAR) model (Fig. 7.3).
Fig. 7.3. Inputs for issuing HW/CW
At present, the heat /cold wave bulletins (colour coded and impact based) in text as well as graphic format for next 5
days and are updated four times in day (based on 0530, 0830, 1430 & 1730 hours IST) in All India Weather Forecast
Bulletin (https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/all_india_forcast_bulletin.php) by NWFC, IMD, New Delhi.
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In the Morning and Evening (at 0800 & 1600 hours IST) special heat wave guidance bulletins
(http://internal.imd.gov.in/pages/heatwave_mausam.php) are also issued by NWFC.
The district wise heat/ cold wave warnings are issued by MCs/ RMCs of IMD. Thereafter, these warnings are shared
with concerned State Government Authority, National Disaster Management Authority, Media and other stakeholders
like Indian Railway, Health departments, Power Sector etc. In addition, RMCs/ MCs also provide temperature forecast
for all the major cities of respective state as per the state disaster management requirement. In adding to above,
warnings are also communicated by all digital mode of communications like over phone (to senior disaster
managers), whatsapp, SMS, e-mail, facebook, twitter, instagram and weekly weather in the form of audio-video
model and uploaded inyoutube.
7.6. Recent development
7.6.1. Heat/ cold wave Forecasting Demonstration Projects (FDPs)
In 2016, a multi-institutional initiative by involving IMD various divisions (NWFC, NWP, Satmet, RMC Delhi/
Kolkata/Guwahati, MWO Delhi/Kolkata, EMRC), NCMRWF, Noida, IITM Pune, SAC, Ahmadabad and IAF to understand
& study the various characteristics of
o WDs & its associated weather i.e. heavy rain/snow, spatial distribution of precipitation
o Dense Fog
o Cold wave/day
o Ground frost etc.
mainly for the northern parts of the country (north of 20°N), so that a better weather forecast & warnings advisories
at least five days in advance is to be issued during 1 December to 28 February from December 2016 onwards.
Thereafter a detailed report is prepared during above period with following components:
1. Observation
1.1. Past and current Observations:
1.2. Satellite Observations:

Satellite Division, IMD
SAC Ahmadabad
1.3. Atmospheric composition parameters:

(i) Observations
(ii) Forecast
2. Synoptic features:
3. Dynamical features:
4. Thermodynamical features:
5. Model analysis and Guidance
6. Forecast and Warning Guidance
This report is kept in IMD website and disseminate through emails to all concerned.
Similarly FDP heat wave was initiated from 2018 onwards for the period from 1 April to 30 June. During this period,
st
two bulletins are issued daily, 1 bulletin is issued at 0800 hours IST with previous day maximum temperatures & its
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nd
departure from the normal and heat wave warning for the same day. 2 bulletin is issued at 1600 hours IST with
previous day maximum temperatures & its departure, current maximum temperatures based on 1430 hours IST and
its 24 hour tendency, Sub-divisionwise 5 days impact based heat wave warnings in text as well as graphic format.
Warnings at meteorological sub-division levels issued to different users like, MHA, NDMA, SDMA, CS of states, DC/ DM
of different districts of states, health department, Indian Railway, Road transport, Media etc. Seasonal and extended
range (upto two weeks) outlook are also issued for maximum temperatures. Weekly extended range bulletin for
temperatures and heat wave is also issued every Thursday.
7.6.2. Heat wave action plan
The Heat-Wave Action plan aims to provide a framework for implementation, coordination and evaluation of extreme
heat response activities in cities/ town in India that reduces the negative impact of extreme heat. The Plan’s primary
objective is to alert those populations at risk of heat-related illness in places where extreme heat conditions either
exist or are imminent, and to take appropriate precautions, which are at high risk. IMD is responsible for early
warning for heat wave warnings.
Presently, heat wave action plan has been implemented at more than 100 cities/towns of India.
Source : Guidelines for Preparation of Action Plan – Prevention and Management of Heat-Wave-2016
https://ndma.gov.in/images/guidelines/guidelines-heat-wave.pdf
7.7. Preventive measures for Heat Wave
7.7.1. The measures one should do to minimize the impact during heat wave
o Listen to Radio, watch TV, read News paper for local weather forecast to know if a heat wave is on the way.
o Drink sufficient water and as often as possible, even if not thirsty.
o Wear lightweight, light-coloured, loose, and porous cotton clothes. Use protective goggles, umbrella/hat, shoes
or chappals while going out in sun.
o While travelling, carry water with you.
o If you work outside, use a hat or an umbrella and also use a damp cloth on your head, neck, face and limbs.
o Use ORS, homemade drinks like lassi, torani (rice water), lemon water, buttermilk, etc. which help to re-hydrate
the body.
o Recognize the signs of heat stroke, heat rash or heat cramps such as weakness, dizziness, headache, nausea,
sweating and seizures. If you feel faint or ill, see a doctor immediately.
o Keep animals in shade and give them plenty of water to drink.
o Keep your home cool, use curtains, shutters or sunshade and open windows at night.
o Use fans, damp clothing and take bath in cold water frequently.
o Provide cool drinking water near work place.
o Caution workers to avoid direct sunlight.
o Schedule strenuous jobs to cooler times of the day.
o Increasing the frequency and length of rest breaks for outdoor activities.
o Pregnant workers and workers with a medical condition should be given additional attention.
(Source : https://ndma.gov.in/images/guidelines/guidelines-heat-wave.pdf)
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7.7.2. The measures one should do to minimize the impact during cold wave
o Stay indoors as much as possible.

o Check that you have adequate winter clothing.
o Monitor all media outlets for weather and emergency procedure information.
o Check on any neighbours who live alone, especially the elderly.
o Ensure emergency supplies are easily accessible-no power means-no electricity.
o Use only one room-an internal room or passage will be easier to heat. Regular hot drinks will maintain body heat
to fight the cold.
o If electricity fails, freezers will preserve food for up to 48 hours if the door is kept shut.
o Ensure that adequate clothing is worn-many light layers are better than one thick layer.
o Hats and mufflers help to prevent heat loss.
o Maintain proper ventilation when using kerosene heater or coal oven to avoid toxic fumes.
o Eat healthy food to supply heat to the body and drink non alcoholic beverages.
o Visit doctor for signs of frostbite: loss of feeling and white or pale appearance on fingers, toes, ear lobes and the
tip of the nose.
o Visit doctor for signs of hypothermia (subnormal body temperature); uncontrolled shivering, memory loss,
disorientation, incoherence, slurred speech, drowsiness and apparent exhaustion.
(Source : https://ndma.gov.in/en/national-plan/79-media-public-awareness/natural-disaster/cold-wave/1541-cold-
wave-do-dont.html)
7.8. Documentation and Verification
♦ Must be based on absolute metrics and not normalized ones, except for differentiating high altitude areas from
plains
♦ Must be sufficiently widespread and not pertaining to areas far too small to be identified unambiguously
(District, State)
♦ Must not be ephemeral (lasting at least 2 days)
♦ Must be evaluated by objective observational methods as well accompanied by indices of human perception and
spelt out specifically accordingly
The accuracy of the warning for heat wave and cold wave need to be verified in order to consider the effectiveness of
the existing criteria (definition) used for defining the heat wave or cold wave episode. The heat wave and cold wave
warning could be verified over Met. Sub-division level after the availability of all data.
Heat wave skill (Probability of Detection (PoD) and Missing Rate (MR)) for India as whole during 2014 to 2019 is given
in Fig. 7.4.
Fig. 7.4. PoD and MR of all India heat wave scores during 2014 to 2019
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Chapter 8
Fog Warning Services

8.1. Introduction
The plains of north India is one of the most fog-prone areas in the world. During peak occurrences period of fog, one
can see an extensive fog layer covering a vast areas across Indo-Gangetic plains(IGP), in day to day Satellite fog
images, starting from Pakistan to Bangladesh across north Indian plains (Refer Fig. 1). Besides IGP, it also occurs over
north-eastern states and East coast of India especially over Odisha and West Bengal coasts including Guwahati,
Agartala, Bhubaneswar and Kolkata during few winter nights. Many hill stations of India also experience hill fog
because of local topography and peculiar air pattern subject to the locations. Plains of Maharashtra, Gujarat, most
parts of southern Peninsular India, and central parts of India rarely experience dense fog because of less humidity in
the air. Even though the western parts of Rajasthan experiences rain due to western disturbances, it experiences
lesser dense fog days mainly due to extreme low temperatures and lack of sustaining moisture sources and its
availability because its western parts gets wind from dry deserts. Some urban locations e.g. Hyderabad, Chennai,
Bhopal, Guwahati, Bangalore, etc. are also experiencing few dense fog days in winter season which may be due to rise
in pollutions and urbanization.
Although it delivers beautiful scenery, Fog is dangerous and disturbing for all mode of transport especially aviation.
Fog is defined as an obscurity in the surface layers of the atmosphere which is caused by a suspension of water
droplets (with humidity > 75%), with or without smoke particles containing various types of pollutants, and associated
with visibility less than 1000 m. Visibility (i.e. general visibility) is defined as the estimation of the minimum horizontal
distance at the surface in all directions by an observer at which an object or light can be visible to the normal eye by
referring to various pre-fixed landmarks around. Dense fog severely affects Aviation, Railway, Highway transport and
other transport sector because of absence of desired visibility minima thus severely affecting their operation. In
aviation sector, Fog has a significant impact on the conduct of flying operations particularly landing and take-off. Low
ceiling and poor visibility are not just a safety issue. They can also severely reduce the capacity of an airport and lead
to airborne or ground delays that result in diversions, cancellations, missed connections, and extra operational costs.
It also affects river ferry Services across states like Bihar, Assam, UP etc., by affecting many inland water ways across
Ganges and Brahmaputra where their intensity and frequencies are higher than rest part of India. Incidents of tripping
of electrical power distribution wire lines have also been reported from several areas as of north India during
prolonged dense fog period when associated with higher pollutants having electro-chemically charged particles.
Human Health especially, of old and children gets severely affected in case dense fog layer persist over an area
especially over parts of northwestern pains of India, for longer part of the day, disrupting the sun light and causing the
day temp to remain very much lower than normal.
8.2. Basics of Fog events and Types in terms of physical process and local topography leading to their formation
Fog can form in a number of ways, depending on how the cooling that caused the condensation occurred : Radiation
fog is formed by the cooling of land after sunset by thermal radiation in calm conditions with clear sky. The cool
ground produces condensation in the nearby air by heat conduction. In perfect calm the fog layer can be less than a
meter deep but turbulence can promote a thicker layer. Radiation fogs occur at night, and usually do not last long
after sunrise. Radiation fog is common in autumn and early winter. Examples of this phenomenon include the dense
fog event develops after rain spell followed by WD over north India in some winter date. Ground fog is fog that
obscures less than 60% of the sky and does not extend to the base of any overhead clouds. However, the term is
sometimes used to refer to radiation fog. Advection fog occurs when moist air passes over a cool surface by advection
(wind) and is cooled. It is common during approach of a WD in peak winter period of 15 Dec-31 Jan over northwest
Indian plains when easterly warmer and moist laden winds advected to these areas which already have come, under
colder temperatures, just before changing westerly wind pattern to easterly winds at near surface level.
8.2.1. Fog formation and associated process
The occurrence, development and dissipation of fog over a region or place depends mainly on prevailing
meteorological conditions and atmospheric particulate maters such as pollutants and aerosols. The complete
processes passes through multiple processes (thermodynamical, radiative, dynamical, microphysical) that occur
simultaneously, through a wide range of conditions, and that interact non-linearly with each other. The fog life cycle is
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determined by thermodynamic, dynamic, radiative and microphysical processes, and by surface conditions. Detailed
understanding and modelling of the fine microphysical processes taking place inside a fog layer has been limited by
the lack of suitable sets of dynamic, turbulent, radiative and microphysical measurements. One of the particularities
of Fog at surface level in BL in contrast to cloud at top of it is:
a) its development within the surface boundary layer, in contact with the ground, where aerosol concentrations are
the highest and surface heterogeneities imply complex heat, water, radiative and chemical fluxes.
b) CCN activation inside cloud associated with a significant cooling rate mainly forced by a vertical velocity where as
being fog is a cloud in contact with the ground where aerosol concentrations are the highest where the cooling rate is
mainly associated with radiative cooling and, consequently, is different from the cooling of other boundary layer
clouds associated with vertical velocity and
c) Moreover, this cooling rate is maximum at the top of the fog layer, leading to maximum production of liquid water
near the top of the fog where as in cloud cooling rate is highest at base. d) cloud forms under strong wind conditions
where intermixing is fast, turbulent.
8.2.2. Mechanism of fog formation, intensification of layer, the maintenance phase and dissipation Process
Fog formation results from condensation of water vapor into liquid droplets near surface, as a result of air cooling,
moistening, and/or through mixing of contrasting air parcels. The most common scenario considered when invoking
fog formation over land involves nocturnal radiative cooling under light wind conditions (Roach 1995), while
dissipation typically occurs a few hours after sunrise as a result of warming from sensible heat fluxes over a surface
heated by solar radiation (the so-called fog burn-off). However, this statement hides a more complex reality, with
regions experiencing fog events due to conditions such as advection fog or stratus lowering rather than the typical
radiative fog event (Croft et al. 1997; Tardif and Rasmussen 2007). Furthermore, the nature and concentration of
aerosols present in the surface layer are known to be critical parameters throughout the fog life cycle as their
chemical and microphysical properties control the activation process (Rangognio et al. 2009), and their optical
properties affect radiative cooling and heating (Elias et al. 2009). In addition, turbulent mixing is known to be a key but
ambiguous factor in influencing fog formation. If turbulent mixing is too low, dew deposition at the surface will inhibit
condensation in the atmosphere and hence inhibit fog formation. If turbulence is strong enough, it may promote
condensation in a supersaturated surface layer of sufficient depth and hence lead to fog formation and development
(Bergot et al. 2008).
During the maintenance phase, a significant fog layer maintains a relatively constant depth. This phase is
characterized by a balance between opposing forces. These forces are fog-top radiative cooling, droplet settling, and
fog-top mixing. Fog-top condensation balances evaporation and droplet settling processes to maintain the depth of
the fog layer. Radiative cooling at fog top replenishes the supply of droplets as they settle downward, and even tries
to strengthen the inversion and deepen the fog. At the same time, turbulent mixing attempts to weaken the inversion
and erode the fog top. Since winds generally increase with height, a radiation fog layer typically deepens during its
growth phase until it reaches a height where the winds are strong enough and induce enough fog-top mixing to halt
the growth. Introduction of mid- and upper-level cloud layers, during the daytime, can help to maintain the radiation
fog layer. These clouds reduce the solar radiation received at the ground surface, preventing warming at the surface
and maintaining a higher relative humidity in the lower portions of the fog layer. However, the lower the level of an
overlying cloud layer, the more it can reduce radiative cooling and condensate production at fog top, allowing
dissipative processes such as settling to take over.
Fog Dissipation processes : The duration of the dissipation phase can vary due to several factors. Dissipation of
droplets is generally caused by one or more of the following processes:
Solar Radiation : During the daytime, solar radiation is absorbed by the ground, even when there is an intervening
layer of fog. As the ground warms, it heats a thin skin of air in contact with the surface through conduction. This heat
initiates weak convective mixing, which begins to warm the lowest portion of the fog layer. The relative humidity in
this layer begins to decrease, slowing the formation of fog droplets and eventually evaporating existing droplets. As
the fog thins, the warming process accelerates, allowing more solar radiation to reach the ground. With moderately
strong sunshine, the base of a fog or low cloud layer can lift at a rate of up to several hundred feet per hour.
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Droplet Settling - Regardless of their size, all fog droplets continually settle. The depth of a fog layer decreases when
the droplet formation rate cannot keep up with the settling rate. An average fog droplet, which is less than 20
micrometers in diameter, will settle at the rate of 1 cm/sec. So, fog initially 30 meters (or about 100 feet) deep should
settle to the ground in about an hour if the maintenance processes are removed.
Wind Shear/Turbulent Mixing - A fog layer’s capping inversion is often accompanied by a layer of significant vertical
wind shear. Turbulent mixing of warmer and drier air into the top of the fog layer can reduce relative humidity in that
layer and lower the inversion. The weaker the capping inversion is, the more susceptible it is to this ongoing mixing
and erosion process.
Changes in the Wind : Introduction of moderate to strong low-level winds can cause fog to dissipate both at the fog
top and near the surface. At the fog top, winds entrain warmer, drier air from aloft into the fog. Near the surface,
winds cause mixing of the surface-warmed air with the fog above. Both promote evaporation of fog droplets and
improved visibility.
Overlying Cloud Layers at Night : At night, loss of radiant heat is most rapid when there are no clouds above an
established fog layer. If a broken or overcast layer of mid-level or a thick layer of upper-level clouds is introduced, fog-
top cooling decreases because less radiation is able to escape the atmosphere. This effect can slow the rate of new
droplet formation and contribute to fog dissipation.
8.2.3. Fog and Role of pollution
Many previous works have studied CCN activation inside stratocumulus or cumulus, i.e. associated with a significant
cooling rate mainly forced by a vertical velocity. The specificity of this work is to study CCN activation in foggy
conditions. Therefore, the framework is relatively different to past studies on activation. Firstly, the fog is a cloud in
contact with the ground where aerosol concentrations are the highest. Secondly, the cooling rate is mainly associated
with radiative cooling and, consequently, is different from the cooling of other boundary layer clouds associated with
vertical velocity. Moreover, this cooling rate is maximum at the top of the fog layer, leading to maximum production
of liquid water near the top of the fog. Aerosols influence the fog life cycle in a complex way. The number, size and
chemical properties of aerosol particles are key properties in the activation processes. Consequently, the aerosol
characteristics directly affect the microphysical properties of a fog layer (number and size of the fog droplets). But the
microphysical properties of a fog layer indirectly influence the life cycle of the fog through the interactions between
microphysical, dynamic and radiative processes.
8.2.4. Classification of Fog events
Fog events may be classified based on its scale, formation mechanism or from intensity prospective based upon
horizontal visibility reduction, it causes. Hence, it may classify various types depending upon three following main
factors (Refer Fig. 1)
• Scale
 Meso-scale Fog
 Synoptic scale fog
 Large-scale fog
• Physical Process
 Radiation fog
 Advection Fog
 Steam fog/evaporation fog
 Lowering Cloud base
 Valley fog/Upslope Fog
• Intensity based
 Shallow fog
 Dense fog/thick fog
 Very dense/thick fog
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8.3. Fog occurrences over India
The most favorable area of fog formation in India covers mainly western and central parts of parts of IGP covering
Pakistan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh and northern parts of Uttar Pradesh because of availability
of high moistures either from moving western disturbances or from local vast irrigated agricultural fields where
abundance green vegetation are grown and moisture supply sustained during the season for supporting to agriculture
day to day. Another area of maximum fog formation lies over Bihar and its north-eastern parts covering plains and
valley of Assam and Meghalaya areas. Topography with wide plains and availability of abundance moisture secures in
the region further due to presence of wide river networks in this region, from three major river basins those all
feeding/distributing from/to Indus, Ganges and Brhmaputra-Meghna respectively also plays major role in such large-
scale dense fog formation, stay for longer duration from early evening till late noon and then their persistence for
weeks. While analysing fog coverage, one may note its distinct footprints distributed along these major river routes
and accordingly often their major occurrences correspond to respective three river basins. Data shows Gorakhpur is
the highest fog formation area in India. Nevertheless, the mostly suited low temperatures and calm wind conditions
over the region helps dense fog for persisting to longer period which seriously affects daily life over the region. Such
fog events sometimes observed to be developed simultaneously over the vast region of the IG plains and easily
detected in recent days satellite morning visible pictures as a very large scale white patch persisting upto 1130 IST and
extending twenty five hundred km from Lahore to Dhaka which may be rare in any other part of the world if one
considers its unique larger spatial coverage for prolonged period (refer Fig. 2). Some urban locations e.g. Hyderabad,
Chennai, Bhopal, Guwahati, Bangalore etc also experiencing few dense fog days in winter season which may be
because of rise in pollutions and urbanization or very supporting synoptic circulation pattern over these places
supporting moisture incursion followed by calm wind and fall in temperature.
Fig. 1. Fog types as physical process and local topography and exposure conditions
8.3.1. Classification of Fog into different types for India region and their Climatological Characteristics
Considering the physical processes behind fog formation over India region, we can classify and distinguish between
radiation fog, radiation advection fog, advection fog, steam fog, cloud-base lowering fog and Precipitation Fog. It
can also be classified in terms of observed aerial extent it has covered in INSAT pictures routinely in peak winters, like
restricted to a part of city or airport or to a RWY side leaving other RWY fog free called local fog or meso-scale fog or
cases when covered across a large areas of a country. For common routine use, Fog can also be classified based upon
how it impacts surface visibility reduction to any lowest value e.g. shallow, moderate, dense and very dense fog
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corresponding to Vis< 1000, <500m, <200m and <50m respectively (Table 1). IMD has also been using same
classification for its day to day reporting and warning services.
Table 1
Classification of Fog into different Types based on general Vis reduction
Fog Types General Visibility Range (in meters)

Shallow Visibility fall upto 500m
Moderate Upto 200m
Dense Upto 50m
Very dense < 50 m
Fog occurrences are very high for north-western Plains of India covering Punjab, Haryana, northern parts of Uttar
Pradesh and Delhi which gradually decreases towards eastern Gangetic plains. Fog climatology for various airports in
north India has been computed based upon visibility data as per data available from various sources at various
temporal scale e.g. hourly visibility data as available from airports and from various met stations at 3-h interval in
synop data. Table 2 to Table 5 shows climatological frequencies in number of days and durations for various types of
fog at various visibility ranges as per types of data available from IAF and IMD for various periods. Wherever, good
visibility data set for longer period, at 1-h interval say airport data for certain locations were made available,
climatological occurrences for each types of fog (general fog, moderate fog, dense fog and very dense fog) in both
duration and days for each months, have been prepared.
th
Fig. 2. Fog blanket as detected by INSAT 3D at 0830 Hours of IST of 5 Jan, 2018 which have been
extensively covered vast areas of IGP region during a spell lasted for a week
Table 2 shows climatological frequencies in days and total duration for each month of Nov to Feb at IGI Airport for
which continuous data for all months of winter covering fog period was available for 1991-2021 for Nov to Feb. As per
Table 2, the capital Delhi based upon IGI Airport longer period data, one may finds, fog occurrences of vis< 1000m are
as high as 823 hours and 88 days for whole Nov-Feb period while for Dense fog cases with Vis<200m, have total
average of around 24 days and 126 hours. It may noted that dense fog occurrences severely affects day to day lives by
impacting road transport, railway and flight operations. Table 2 further shows month-wise, among four months, Dec
and Jan have almost 70-80% of occurrences on an average both in terms of durations and intensity-wise(Refer Table
2). Similarly, for other three major airports(Amritsar, Lucknow and Varanasi) of north India for which continuous 1-h
gap IMD data are available but for Dec and Jan, have been compiled for these peak winter months and climatological
occurrences in number of days and durations for each months have been given in Table 3 to Table 5. These shows in
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for each month of Dec/Jan, in total, fog occurs for 18-22 days on an average, which relatively less compared to Delhi
which 26-27 days, in these months, while dense fog days are comparable of 8-11 days for all four airports in this belts
per each month for Dec and Jan.
Table 6 shows climatological occurrences in total hours and days for Dec and Jan for IAF airports using data of another
7 airports (Kanpur, Ambala, Chandigarh, Allhabad, Agra, Gorakhpur and Hindon) shallow/ Moderate/dense fog along
with duration and number of days, computed using data of 1999-2006. It shows general fog <1000m visibility occurs
around 22-26 days as is seen for previous IMD data of four airports while dense fog are of 8-12 days, also comparable
to IMD data of other four airports (Delhi, Amritsar, Lucknow and Varanasi given in table 2 to 5), all for the months of
Dec and Jan, peak winter months when it affect the worst to flight operations and other transports. Average fog days
data are also available from IAF for Dec and Jan 1971-2005 for another 7 airports - Bareilly, Gwalior, Pathankot,
Jammu, Srinagar, Adampur and Bathinda which shows Bhatinda, Barilly and Adampur have very higher occurrences
like other airport in this region with 18-20 days in each Dec and Jan months, peak winter months. But for other
airports it is of 4-9 days. Table 8 shows average occurrences of different intensity of fog days at different ranges of
Visibility another 18 major airports which includes airports over other parts of India with Nov and Feb average for
Amritsar, Lucknow and Varanasi. One may note, Bangalore and Kolkota, Patna, Guwahati, etc are highly fog
vulnerable.
Table 2
Average Fog hours duration and days 1991-2021 (31-years) IGI Airport, New Delhi
Months/ Types of fog Duration Days

<1000 <500 <200 <50 <1000 <500 <200 <50
Nov 151.3 29.3 4.5 1 17 4.8 1 0.5
Dec 277.8 102.3 41.3 25.3 26 15 7 5.2
Jan 289.6 127.2 66.3 38.3 26.1 17.9 11.4 8.2
Feb 104.9 36.2 13.8 5.9 18.5 9.5 4.0 2.1
Total 823.6 295 125.9 70.5 87.6 47.2 23.4 16
Table 3
Average Fog hours duration and days 1997-2021 (25-years) Amritsar Airport

<1000 <500 <200 <50 <1000 <500 <200 <50
Dec 153.6 98.0 69.7 50.5 17.5 12.5 9.7 7.5
Jan 152.6 95.9 70.8 49.1 17.5 13.3 11.1 8.5
Table 4
Average Fog hours duration and days 2000-2021 (22-years) Lucknow Airport

<1000 <500 <200 <50 <1000 <500 <200 <50
Dec 169.1 93.6 64.4 8.0 19.7 11.5 8.9 1.5
Jan 193.0 112.4 75.6 14.1 20.3 13.9 10.9 2.8
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Table 5
Average Fog hours duration and days 2000-2021(22-years) Varanasi Airport

<1000 <500 <200 <50 <1000 <500 <200 <50
Dec 157.8 70.0 43.1 24.3 22.2 10.5 6.4 4.4
Jan 182.8 99.5 70.4 40.4 22.1 13.7 10.5 7.1
Table 6
Climatological hours of occurrences for various intensity of fog in hours using IAF data for
six airports of north India
Average
Station Name Month Averaging Years <1000 <500 <200 <50
Hours Days Hours Days Hours Days Hours Days
Allahabad Dec 2000-2006 143.7 20.9 52.9 10.1 35.0 6.4 30.3 6.0
Jan 2000-2006 201.7 22.4 101.9 14.3 76.3 10.4 70.9 9.9
Kanpur Dec 1999-2006 165.6 24.8 67.9 14.0 40.5 8.5 34.6 7.0
Jan 2000-2006 182.4 21.7 98.0 12.9 69.1 9.3 63.9 8.6
Agra Dec 2000-2005 193.5 24.2 69.8 12.0 43.5 6.5 41.3 6.5
Jan 2000-2006 212.3 24.1 111.3 12.8 88.9 10.3 82.3 9.8
Ambala Dec 1999-2008 167.8 23.2 84.4 13.8 61.3 11.4 54.7 10.6
Jan 2000-2008 204.1 19.2 98.1 13.7 69.7 11.0 64.1 10.7
Chandigarh Dec 2000-2008 70.7 8.3 39.6 4.8 27.7 4.1 22.2 3.7
Jan 2000-2008 135.5 17.7 68.6 9.3 48.3 7.2 44.1 7.1
Gorakhpur Dec 1999-2008 313.7 27.6 124.4 18.4 80.6 12.8 71.4 11.4
Jan 1999-2008 293.9 25.0 114.3 15.9 75.3 12.1 66.9 10.8
Hindon Dec 1999-2007 241.1 27.3 81.6 15.3 40.1 8.3 31.3 6.7
Jan 2000-2008 251.0 25.9 110.8 14.0 68.9 10.0 57.6 8.9
Table 7
General Fog occurrences in number of days using Air force data for additional 7 Airports
Station name Month Averaging Years Average days

Bareilly Dec 1971-2005 20.5
Jan 1971-2005 18.5
Gwalior Dec 1974-2005 7.8
Jan 1974-2005 9.8
Pathankot Dec 1971-2005 3.3
Jan 1971-2005 5.4
Jammu Dec 1971-2005 3.3
Jan 1971-2005 5.9
Srinagar Dec 1971-2005 3.9
Jan 1971-2005 4.6
Adampur Dec 1971-2005 18.2
Jan 1971-2005 19.2
Bathinda Dec 1977-2005 15.4
Jan 1977-2005 18.6
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Table 8
Average No of days of Fog Formation at 18 Airports during November, December, January & February months 2005-
2020 using IMD data (with Amritsar, Lucknow, Varanasi only for Nov and Feb months. For latter airports for
climatological occurrences of fog at various intensity in Dec and Jan, refer Table 3-5)
S. Visibility
No Airport January(Days) February(Days) November(Days December(Days)
<50m <200m <500m <1000m <50m <200m <500m <1000m <50m <200m <500m <1000m <50m <200m <500m <1000m
1 Amritsar 2 1.2 1.4 4.1 0.6 0.6 1.6 6.6
2 Lucknow 0.6 1.3 1.3 3.7 0.1 1 0.7 5.7
3 Varanasi 4.5 5.7 5.4 11.7 0 0 3.4 16.8
4 Patna 5.7 10.3 11.4 24.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0 0 0 1.2 6.8 6.9 12.9 19.9
5 Kolkata 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.5
6 Jaipur 1.1 0.9 1.4 4.5 0 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.5
7 Guwahati 0.1 1.4 1.8 5.4 0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0 0.1 0.4 1.4 0.1 1.7 2.6 5.1
8 Bangalore 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0 0.2 0.3 0.6
9 Hyderabad 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 3
10 Chennai 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
11 Trivendrum 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 Coimbatore 0 0 0.1 0.2 0 0 0 0.2 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.1 0.1 0.3
13 Kochi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 Calicut 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 Indore 0 2.1 3.1 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.5
16 Mumbai 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
17 Ahmedabad 0 0 0.1 2.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.3 2.1
(a)
(b)
Figure 2b. Average number of days with fog having visibility < 1000 m for the period 1971-2000 (a) December,
(b) January, (c) February and (d) Season from Sawaisarje, G. K., et al. 2014
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Figure 2c. Average number of days with (a) dense fog having visibility code 90 (During day observations, objects not
visible at 50 m and at 100 m during night observations (b) thick fog having visibility code 91 (During day
observations, objects visible at 50 m but not at 200 m and at 330 m during night observations) from Sawaisarje, G.
K., et al. 2014
Fig. 2b and Fig. 2c shows spatial frequency of fog occurrences days at <1000m, < 200m and <50m for Dec to Feb
month-wise cumulative days and season over all India using IMD data from Sawaisarje, G. K., et al. 2014. The areas of
maximum fog areas also coincides with finding we noted from airport data and presented in tabular from in Table 2 to
8 with most vulnerable areas leis over Punjab Haryana and then over areas of northeast Uttar Pradesh and adjoining
areas of Bihar.
8.3.2. Longer duration dense fog spells over IGP and their Unique characteristic
One may look at Fig. 3a, Fig 3b and Fig 3c and find the daily variation of three fog cases from timing of fog formation
and lifting process where their life cycle were noted to be of 76 hours (days lasted), 42 hours (2-days lasted) and 225
hours (9-days lasted) corresponding to tow major fog events at Delhi and one event at Amritsar. All these events sow,
fog was occurred and then was remained persistently whole period with visibility almost less than <1000m
all throughout with late evening to late morning, also dense fog have been report with longer night-morning period of
v<200m. Hence, a system of fog forecast capability in case consider, must consider such extreme cases and capture
such variation.
Study of fog events across IGP region for 2000-2021 using satellite fog coverage data and airport data show that fog
events formed during the peak winter of mid Dec till end Jan are normally large-scale in terms of aerial coverage,
longer spells and are combination of Radiation and advection types while cases in the months of Nov and Feb mostly
occurred localized at meso-scale or synoptic scale, shorter in spell and hence are of radiation fog types. There are
months and seasons when large-scale dense fog occurred across vast areas of IGP region was observed and persisted
for very longer period of 10-30 days across IGP region e.g. Dec 1997 and 1998, Jan 2003, Jan 2010 and Dec-Jan of
2016-17, 2017-18 and 2020-21 when whole Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP) had frequent spells of occurrences of high
duration dense fog layer covering most parts of it lasting for 12-15 hours with night-morning period with visibility
below 200m. These longer spell dense fog events are called as episodic fog/smog as it severely impacts lives of people
across this great IGP. It is also called as high impact weather event as data shows it impacted normal lives severely
with 100s of flight and train delays/cancellations and also caused road accidents. Some additional unique
Characteristics of large-scale Indo-Gangetic dense fog layer are:
st
 It mostly forms during peak winter of Mid Dec to 1 week Feb and of mixed type Radiation-advection.
 Once it forms, it continues to persist for weeks at night and morning over vast areas with only partial lifting at
late noon with conversion to low stratus clouds.
 In fact, at both temporally and spatially, IGP fog events may be the fastest in formation, largest in areas and
longest in duration, if compared to any other fog areas of the world and, also in terms of magnitude of its severe
impact as it spreads over world’s mostly densely populated region.
 Persistence of such thick fog layer further compounded lives of common people when dense fog layer prevents
sunlight to reach to the surface during most parts of the day with day max temp falling to as low as 10-15degC
with 8-12degC below normal for weeks.
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Figure 3(a,b,c). The daily variation of three of most longest duration fog cases at IGIA Delhi from timing of fog
formation and lifting process where their life cycle were noted to be of 76 hours (4- days lasted) in Jan 2014 at IGI
Airport Delhi, 225 hours(9-days lasted) during Dec 2018 at Amritsar Airport and 42hours(2-days lasted) occurred
during Jan 2020 at IGI Airport Delhi
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Figure 4. INSAT 3D RGB-Satellite based monitoring of fog formation/dissipation and Arial spread/receding
across IGP during 2000IST night till 1400 IST afternoon of the next date
8.3.3. Variability and Extremes of fog occurrences across IGP and Impacts
8.3.3.1. Variability and Extremes of fog occurrences across IGP
The presence of heavy and extended period of fog in the northern regions of India across IGP in each Winter (Ref Fig
2), is one of the major weather hazards. Followings are few salient features of variability of fog characteristics in IGP
region when analyzed these events from satellite and surface fog data for month wise during 1997-2021:
 Areas of IGP’s northwestern parts and central parts, are more vulnerable for dense fog.
 On an average, longer period data of airports across this part of IGP except Delhi shows around 30-40(18-22
days) of General fog (Dense Fog) of Visibility<1000m(<200m) with average duration lasting 8-10-hours(6-7hours)
per night-morning in the peak winter months of Dec-Jan.
 Delhi being more polluted, it records 54% more of fog days compared to others, with total of 54 days/618 hours
i.e. 12 hours per day with almost all days reporting fog during whole period of Dec-Jan. But it is interesting to
note that it has nearly similar 21 dense fog days with average of 6-7 hours per day as it records for other airports
in IGP.
 Nov and Feb too reports fog in the region, but it is of marginal occurrences of 10-15 days/8-10 h per day for
general fog and just of 1- 3 days with 3-4 hours per day dense fog. One of the most uniqueness of IGP fog events
is that it has very high unusual variability with season of very high extreme fog coverage affecting severely life of
people in the region while in some season, it is average or below average and few with, no dense fog reported at
al.
 Data shows 1997-1998, 2002-03, 2009-10, 2014-15 and in 2017-18 and 2020-2021, are extreme fog years when
25-35 days/200-300 hours of dense were observed blinding most dates from mid-night till late morning. In these
seasons, satellite fog also in some occasions shows almost all areas including eastern and northeastern parts of
IGP including Delhi(Ref Fig 2) were under dense fog cover for 3-4 weeks.
 In contrast, 2007-08 and recent of 2018-19, were noted as prominent winters when hardly any significant dense
fog was reported across IGP except few cases at its northwestern parts (It was total 2 days just at Delhi in 2007-
2008 in all dates of Dec-Jan).
 Daily variability also shows fog cover remaining for 5-10 days uninterruptedly without any lifting covering 24-
hours each date with dense fog with 0m Vis set in as early as 0630pm and continued till 11am next day morning
including at Delhi, Lucknow, Amritsar and Varanasi in the belt (Ref Fig. 2, 3 and 4)
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Other Important Characteristics
 Large-scale longer spell and longer duration dense fog coverage which occurred acorss IGP region mostly
st
observed in 45-days window of peak winter season Mid- Dec to 1 week Feb and are of mixed type Radiation-
advection
 Like other major fog regions of the world, transformation does occur from fog to low stratus clouds at late day
and at night back as dense fog.
 It also severely affects air quality when it traps large amount of pollutions available in the region and hold them
all at lower levels with not much dispersion. During lifting, it works as a scavenger and results low pollutions.
 It is interesting to note areas of such large-scale fog only restricts to those plain areas which is of very lower
topographic part of this plain having the surface height upto 300m extending from Pakistan to Bangladesh across
Punjab-Delhi-Utter Pradesh-Bihar-West Bengal and extends to further narrow north-eastern parts plains.
 Study finds, dense fog forms at most favorable Min temp of 3-10degC with lower levels wind often light/calm
across IGP
 Colder surface light winds from north/nortnorthwest, blown from adjacent Ice covered Himalayan region also
helps it, by intensifying surface colder layer temp and then inversion with upper layer warmer from subsidence
of Anticyclone lay over the area in most date
 Large-scale pollution layer in this area has been major contributory factors
 Irrigation and Green revolution increased - role of change of Land scale processes through moisture increase and
lowering surface air temp.
8.3.3.2. Analysis of fog Impact
Fog affects severely affects various sectors including human lives and it includes:
 Aviation, Railway and Highway transports

 River/Costal ferry services
 Stops Sunlight for weeks and cause severe cold day spell and hence affect Human Health
 Pollution and AQI
 High Power grid lines tripped from fog with higher pollutants
 Affect the crop at growth stage, Flowering stage and at seed formation stage
 Road accidents as major Impact of Fog: Very high in terms of lives lost at north India
a. Impact on Human lives
Dense fog affects road transport severely and not adopting fog safety rule during fog conditions causes road
accidents. In fact for north India, it has been causing very high number of fatal accidents among all weather events.
Fog of two winter for Dec-Jan shows, it has caused Very high cases of fatal accidents in terms of lives lost at north
India. It shows during 2016-2018 winters, when their frequencies are very high, it caused around 120(159) human
lives lost Dec-Jan 2016-17(2017-18). Following were major cases of impacts when accidents were reported in fog from
media
2016-2017
 24 Children who faced the accident on 19 Jan dense fog at Etah UP

 9 people died in accident due to dense fog on 1 Feb in Barabanki district
 12 school Teachers who lost their lives in fog related accidents at Punjab on 9 Dec Morning
 11 people lost their lives in the Yamuna express high way in three different dates of accidents due to dense fog
reducing visibility
2017-2018
 11 lives lost on early morning of 3 Jan at Sikar and another 17 people lost in last 24-h at Raj alone (TNN 7AM 4
Jan)
 5 power-lifters including world champion Saksham Yadav died in an accident that took place near Delhi-Panipat
highway (NH-1) due to fog 6-7 Jan (4am 7 Jan).
 11 people died on Kanpur-Agra road on 7 Jan Sunday evening, when a speeding truck rammed into a standing
auto-rickshaw.
179
 9 lives lost at WB on 20 Jan in dense fog

 10 Lives lost at different cases as received in Patna on 28 Jan
 15 lives lost in Fog at Raj(6), UP(7) and WB(2) on 28-29 Jan
b. Impact on aviation:
Fig. 4 shows total flights diverted and occurrence of total dense fog hours during 2000-2018 for Dec-Jan for peak fog
months at IGI Airport Delhi (IGIAD). It shows diversion of 100s of flights during fog seasons at IGIAD when higher
dense fog occurrences were observed.
Fig. 4. Dense fog hours and flight diverted at IGI Airport Delhi 2000-2018
8.4. Fog detection and Monitoring System operational in IMD
IMD has been using an integrated fog monitoring and early warning system comparable to any best system in the
world. This system uses both surface and space based observations round the clock at 24X7 for fog detection both at a
location and over an area. With availability of INSAT 3-D based RGB fog products since Dec 2014, satellite based fog
detection and monitoring for both day and night period using its RGB day/night fog detection algorithm have been in
extensive use at real time to provide latest fog nowcast/warning for shorter period validity.
The satellite fog coverage when superimposed on surface visibility available at 30 min to 3- hours gap across 205
synop stations available through GTS and across 90 airports available in its Aviation met web based monitoring system
of OLBS (Ref Fig 5 and 6), the fog coverage appearing in satellite can further be validated if it is a surface fog or low
cloud events. By this both satellite and surface vis validation from time to time, no fog events goes undetected from
IMD monitoring. In addition, IMD has also instant way of getting fog updates at each 10- second for major cities of
north India where its airport based Visibility meters called RVR instruments installed at 8 major airports of north India
having total 23 such equipment have been providing web based live data. In the fog season IMD got supports from all
IAF airports by MoU, where, the latter also provides feeding of fog and vis of another 50 airports, to the same web
based monitoring system which has been further enhanced its fog monitoring capability. For the national capital
Delhi which is also a mega city and highly vulnerable for dense fog, IITM-IMD-NCMRWF in joint collaboration has its
special fog warning system operational via WIFEX project. It has been operational at real time for each winter since
th
the winter of Dec 2015. In recent 2015-2021 winter, WIFEX successfully completed at IGIA Delhi 6 successively
st rd
season-a 1 in Asia and 3 in the world after France and USA which provide all new platforms for accurately
capturing fog development along with fog forecast models . The main objective of WIFEX to conduct successive
winters at Delhi, has been to understand fog micro-Physics and role of various type of gaseous and other pollutants
those trigger fog formation, intensification and its further life period including sampling of fog droplets to understand
its chemistry. The other objective is to use those precious data at real time in development and validation of an
effective fog forecast model that provide fog early warning 18-24 hours in advance for airport use. It provides fog
180
micro-physics data at boundary layer (BL) which includes moisture, lower levels wind and temp profile and fog
droplet number-size-concentration and pollutants, etc. It also provides meso-scale modeling support for improving
fog early warning system for north India. IITM-IMD jointly have installed and made operational following equipment
in WIFEX 2015-2021:
 RVR instruments
 Fog droplet microphysics
 Radiometer
 SODAR
 Flux tower – All in one sensors (10,20m) Temp/Rh/WS/WD/Pressure, Eddy Covariance (EC) 12m for
TKE/KE/Sensible Heat Flux
 FM120-FOG DROPLET SPECTURM
 Aerosol, gases and fog water analysis
 Aethelometer for Aerosol scattering
 Nephelometer for Black carbon
 Soil Moisture/Temperature sensors
 Aerosol Microphysics for SM/ST
 Radiation
 MARGA (Chemical analysis of PM1, PM2.5 and gases) online first time in India on high temporal resolution(newly
added and functional in 2017-18)
 Ceilometer -(newly added and functional in 2017-18)
 Fog dispersal set up (experimental mode Ion generator)- (newly added and functional in 2017-18)
 Tethered balloons data at Pusha upto 1000m collected during 10-23 January of 2016.
Figure 5. Integrated Rwy Vis display system of IGIA where Fog status is reported at each instant of time and
updated at each 10 second(Top one). Instument Vis values–RVR for a dense fog date at IGIA
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Figure 6. Surface vis map of winter date in Jan prepared at each 3-h using surface visibility data reported by Airport
Met offices and Observatories (Top is for 0530 IST). Satellite day time RGB fog cover as detected on the same data
by INSAT 3D taken at 0745 hours of IST
182
Figure 7. Micro- wave Radiometer captures fog layer in terms of moisture profiling at each instant. It captures the
dense fog spell prevailed over IGI Airport Delhi during 30 De-5 Jan 2017-18 with day to day variation of time of
onset, depth of fog layer and lifting
8.5. SOP on fog reporting in current weather and synoptic observations and issuing fog nowcasting (trend),
forecasts and Warnings
IMD present status of fog monitoring using various observations already discussed in Sec 4. All these fog products are
regularly made available in main IMD web page during winter round the clock. IMD present Fog information and
warning system can be classified as Airport based fog information and warning system (including trend forecast) by
AMS/AMO/MWO for use in a aviation sector and general fog information and warning system for all other purpose
provided based on Met-sub-division, city, and district levels by NWFC/RWFC/MC. For readily reference, Table 9 has list
of products to be referred by DO/Forecaster of all field stations and at NWFC, for reporting timely fog conditions over
a location/airport/areas and to issue its further evolution covering fog nowcasting and forecasting and dense fog
warnings. Fog products which to be regularly referred by Duty forecaster from time to time are, satellite RGB fog
products at each 30 minute gap and synoptic observations and their trends, AWS/Airport data/live RVR, synoptic
analysis, inversion layer, moisture advection, pattern and process based fog forecast tools and various statistical tools,
all developed or to be developed at field level, along with latest state of art dynamical fog forecast systems already
made operational both for met sub-division wise and airport wise for India region. SOP for finalization of forecast and
warning at location, city, airport and district and met sub-division wise are given in Sec 5. 1, while SOP on satellite fog
interpretation and its use in fog nowcasting is given in Sec 5.2 while Sec 5.3 shows a demo on how to refer multi-
sources Fog products for reporting timely fog development and issuing early warnings by considering two cases of
unique dense fog occurrence at IGI Airport Delhi developed at very late morning after sun rise. All these products
are regularly updated on-line and hence all these products must be referred before making any decision on
fog issuing fog forecast/warning. Various fog forecast products discussed in Table 9 are available at various website
for which corresponding links are given in Sec 6 and hence it is duty of the forecasters to looks all these products and
get updated fog information of his concern domain by noting in register all information available via on-line.
Fog model products available in IMD presently includes WRF chem high resolution at 2km(operational by IITM under
WIFEX) giving forecast of visibility in hourly visibility form in histogram form for Airports of north India including IGI
Airport as well as 1-h evolution of fog forecast products in form of spatial map for north India domain, Delhi fog model
183
at 330m resolution for IGI Airport by NCMRWF provides both metgram form of Visibility at 1-h interval and spatial
map form at Delhi domain, D-Fog model 1.5km covering all major airports of north India by NCMRWF, NCUM regional
and global fog model products produces both deterministic and ensemble forecasts and capable to generate fog
forecast map for single run and for ensemble forecast runs, with probability based fog forecast products. WRF, D-FOG,
NCUM Fog forecast products available at location/airport based are hourly visibility based MET GRAMS and valid for
48-h and while WRF Chem, WRF, NCUM, NEPS and GFS fog products are spatial fog forecast maps with areas color
coded at Vis below 1000m, <500m, <200m and <50m valid for 0000 UTC of day 1 and day 2. Fig 8a and Fig 8b are
flowcharts which may be referred for reference to critically analysed from time to time all corresponding products,
accurately and timely to successfully, monitor fog at RWY or over the airport, areas of fog development or likelihood
over district or met sub-division and delivers a successful fog forecasts and warnings. One may refer Fig 9 to 12(a, b, c,
d) which has sample copy of various fog forecast products available at airport basis and spatial basis from IITM,
NCMRWF and IMD. Summery from all these products may be entered to register from time to time (at 30-minute to
3-h intervals depending upon the met conditions assessments) with each product udpates as available and inferences
may be made using consensus approaches especially while anlayzed fog model products priority may be given in case
dense fog events are forecasted by more number of models and for day 1 to day 2 synoptic diagnostic also may
be given priority. One must get detail diagnostic to determine a fog event has been occurring or most likely to occur
due to wind weakening and inversion layer building up, if it is ahead of WD or behind the WD for north Indian
region.
8.5.1. SOP on issuing Fog forecast and warning (discussion and finalization through VC consultation daily)
IMD since late 2000s providing intensity based fog forecast and warning at both national level from NWFC IMD HQ at
met sub-division wise in terms of spatial terminology (ISOL, SCTD, FWS and WS) for various fog intensity as in Table 1
with RWFC and MCs provide at district levels and city based for 5 days since 2015. Since 2016-17, with
implementation Fog-FDP at national level, regular fog products and their forecasts based upon synoptic, satellite,
NWP models, are discussed at national VC every day at 1030 am and then finalized areas likely under dense fog. FDP
winter fog Guidance products are regularly shared with each other and 24X7 watch kept during winter. From winter
of 2016-17, it has been further expanded and fog forecast upto 5 days with warning colour coded as multi-hazard
map with outlook for 2-days (refer Fig 15).
IMD presently issuing airport wise fog warning at each 6-hourly intervals in winter period and these forecast are
uploaded in IMD web page. It is presently operational at 12 airports at Delhi, Lucknow, Jaipur, Amritsar, Varanasi,
Patna, Agartala, Bhubaneswar, Gaya, Kolkata, Guwahati, and regularly updated at each 6-hours during fog season
covering months of Nov, Dec, Jan and Feb. The history of fog forecasting at airport goes back to 1998, when Met
Office Palam started issuing fog outlook once a day at 1500 UTC daily because of increasing dense fog occurrence over
IGI Airport, which disrupted aviation services during those days. Due to a record highest occurrence of Cat III dense
fog during Dec 1998 (179 hrs) and again in Jan 2003 (158 hours), the fog forecasting was increased to four times a day
with 6 hourly updates and 12 hours outlook period. Such forecasts were made by traditional synoptic method till Dec
2006. With development of various objective based fog models and dynamical fog models, Met department has
achieved its capacity to predict its density and timing with likely impact on air traffic since 2009-10, e.g. when the
airport is likely to be Cat III or close with Cat IIIC conditions(refer tables 10 and 11). Simultaneously, fog when develops
over more number of airports across north India, it makes difficult for flight operations if not planned properly as
alternate will not be available and in case forecast available for more airports, it helps for effective decision.
With current weather of all major airports and their fog forecast have been regularly updated and made available on-
line, users may take advantage of these fog information for proper flight planning to minimized impact aviation
operation.
184
Table 9
List fog Products to be referred by DO/Forecasters at NWFC/MC/AMO/AMS/MWO for reporting fog and issuing
trend forecast/ fog nowcast and forecasting
 Fog Monitoring System to report timely fog conditions over a location/airport/areas
Time to time trends from Surface parameters and Upper Air Parameters of different stations/Airports
a) Trend in surface and lower level wind as reported from airport systems, Ta/Td from AWOS, RVR/MOR from RVR
Network at 10 second to 1 minute intervals and synoptic stations at each 3-h gap
b) Trends from various fog formation parameters like LWC, Equivalence Potential Temp, Inversion and LL moisture
from Radiometer (Fig 7)
c) Meteogram from NWP models (NEPS/ECMWF/GFS/WRF models)
d) Monitoring sky conditions by Ceilometer/ clouds from Current radar observation and Trend in Max Z at 10-minute
updates or manual checking of sky conditions from time to time
e) Fog conditions from RGB if Current satellite observation at 30-minute gap
 IMD Delhi Fog forecast/nowcast system
 Process based using Analogues method (Formation types, scale and period) using past cases
 Radiation fog-basic predictors(Ta-Td, winds, clouds, inversion) for localized or synop-scale fog
 Advection and large-scale fog
 Different analogue technique of localized, synop and large-scale types fog events.
 Synop based Fog forecast system

 STR/Subsidence and calm winds at lower levels and establishment of fog ridge line using GFS winds Analysis and
Forecast
 GFS Diagnostic of Fog and Pollution products
 Sudden wind changes -advection fog
 WD-Ahead and Behind
 Certain synoptic systems –Easterly wave, Cyclone at south Bay etc.
 Climatological data based Threshold and checklist

 Threshold table using surface and UA at the location (TA, Td, RH and Wind) with Upper air Inversion depth and
intensity
 Min temp vis-à-vis dense fog occurrences curve
f) Objective based fog forecast using fog Models
(refer Fig 9 to Fig 12 for sample fog model products from various dynamical fog medals currently operational in
IMD)
 IMD Empirical Fog model of intensity and duration based fog forecast System
 Dynamical Fog forecast systems based NWP models(samples are shown in Fig
 Experimental spatial and Airport based intensity based NCUM Global/Regional spatial Visibility based fog
forecast map from NCMRWF for 24, 48, 72 hours and further validity
Probability NEPS Fog forecast valid for 2 days
NCUM 12KM Global fog model from NCMRWF valid for 10 days
NCUM 4KM Regional fog model from NCMRWF valid for 3 days
NCMRWF 330m Delhi fog model -Valid for 2-days
•NCMRWF all_times_DM_Chem-cities.php-1.5km NW India fog- -Valid for 2-days
 IITM WRF chem Products spatial and Airport based Visibility based Fog Model at 4 Km resolution Delhi Region
and at 2 km for Delhi Airport
 Fog information dissemination

All fog information (fog as observed and all forecast/warnings of fog) are uploaded in IMD WEB page at IMD main
website as well as each MC website
 IMD main website
SMS/WhatsApp and Live RVR
185
Table 10
CAT ILS RVR ranges as per ICAO and corresponding approx. general visibility ranges with fog types and impact,
included in fog forecast for airport purpose
Visibility/FogApprox. Low Visibility and CAT-Types Types of IGI service affected

Types General as per corresponding RVR
Visibility ranges as per ICAO
Shallow 1000m- Low Visibility Procedures(850- Helicopters and small flights
to/Moderate Fog 200m 1200) severely affected
CAT-1(>=550m) Bigger Flight which are not CAT
Compliances severely affected
CAT-II(>=275m)
Dense fog (CAT-III) <200m CAT-IIIA(>=175m) All flights which are CAT-IIIB
CAT-IIIB- >=75m/50m Compliances can operate upto RVR
CAT-IIIC- <50m} >=75m/50m and Airport is closed
when RVR<50m
Table 11
Schedule of issue of Fog Forecast by Met office, IGI AP
Time of Issue of Validity of Fog Validity of

Time of Upload in OLBS
Fog F/c Forecast Outlook
(UTC)
(UTC) (UTC) (UTC)
Within 15 minute from the
0000 0030-0630 0630-1830
time of issue
0600 0630-1230 1230-0030
time of issue
1200 1230-1830 1830-0630
time of issue
1800 1830-0030 0030-1230
time of issue
Following is the sample of a real time fog forecast issued operationally by MWO Delhi for Delhi for season
2016-17.
SAMAPLE OF FOG FORECAST FOR I G I AIRPORT
DATE 08/01/2017 TIME OF ISSUE 08/1200 UTC ( 08/1730 IST) VALID FROM 08/1230 UTC (08/1800 IST) TO 08/1830
UTC (08/2400 IST). VISIBILITY LIKELY TO REDUCE 0400M IN FOG FROM 08/1400 UTC (08/1930 IST). IT MAY FURTHER
REDUCE BELOW 0200M IN DENSE FOG (CAT-II/CAT-III DENSE FOG) FROM 08/1800 UTC (082330 IST).
OUT LOOK FOR NEXT SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS
FROM 08/1830 UTC (09/0000 IST) TO 09/0630 UTC (09/1200 IST) VISIBILITY MAY REDUCE BELOW 0050M IN VERY
DENSE FOG (CAT-IIIB VERY DENSE FOG) FROM 08/2000 UTC (09/0130 IST). IT MAY IMPROVE UPTO 0200M IN DENSE
FROM 09/0330 UTC (09/0900 IST) IT MAY FURTHER IMPROVE TO 0800M IN SHALLOW FOG FROM 09/0600 UTC
(09/1130 IST).
186
Figure 8a. Fog information system of IMD-Flow chart
Figure 8b. Block diagram of present Fog Monitoring, Nowcasting, and Forecasting System functional in IMD
187
Figure 9. NCMRWF Fog forecast products from NCUM from 4 Feb and 5 Feb 2017 bodunery conditions for 24-h and
48-hours forecast for 6 Feb 2017 dense fog occurred across Punjab as seen from RAPID of 6 Feb 2017
Figure 10. IITM Fog forecast products of 28-29 Jan 2017
188
Figure 11. Samples of NCUM and WRF Chem fog forecast products from NCMRWF and IITM in Dec 2017
189
Figure 12a. Fog across IGP on 16 and 17 Jan 2021 as captured by INSAT 3D RGB Day period at 0830IST and by surface
th
Visibility map plotted for the region for corresponding date and time(left panel is for 16 and right panel for 17 Jan
2021
Figure 12b. Fog forecast of 17 Jan 2021 as by NCUM fog model (Global and Regional model for Day 1)
190
Figure 12c. Probabilistic forecast of visibility from NEPS valid for 00UTC 17 Jan 2021 and 18 Jan 2021
191
Figure 12d. NCUM Regional fog model airport vis forecast
192
Figure 12e. Visibility from DM Chem Model for Amritsar, Delhi, Lucknow and Jaipur (Only Delhi has 330m in the last
vis grams while all have 1.5 km resolution)
193
8.5.2. SOP on Satellite based guidance tools for Fog monitoring and forecasting
The thermal radiation, measured by the satellite, also referred to as “radiance” is converted to a brightness
temperature or to an image grey shade. The methodology for representing computed physical parameters in terms of
a composite images comprising Red, Green & Blue color is termed as RGB scheme. The physical parameters are solar
reflectance in solar channels and brightness temperature in the thermal channels.
The main RGB compositions are:
i. “Day Natural Colors”, presenting vegetation in green, bare surface in brown, sea surface in black, water clouds as
white, ice as magenta;
ii. “Day Microphysics”, presenting cloud microstructure using the solar reﬂectance component of the 3.9µm, visible
and thermal IR channels;
iii. “Night Microphysics”, also presenting clouds microstructure using the brightness temperature differences
between 10.8 and 3.9µm.
Based on above scheme, following the analysis and guidance tools like RAPID may be used to identify the fog and
nowcast their onset, duration, extent and movement. The inference drawn from the guidance tools may help in
issuance of TREND, TAF and Local forecast at the airport MET office and for nowcast by forecasting offices at station
and district level.
8.5.3. Standard operating procedures for interpretation of RGB products for fog monitoring and forecasting
Station level Duty Forecasters may follow the following steps:

(1) Go to RAPID the online satellite image and product analysis systems on the main Satellite page.
(2) Select RGB composite under product menu.
(3) Select Day microphysics (after the local sun rise) or Night microphysics (after local sunset)
(4) If your station is already not marked in image map then enter Lat./Long. in (Example: Lat. 27.23 Long. 88.33).
8.5.3.1. Interpretation of Fog
a. Interpretation using Day Microphysics image
In day microphysics image, FOG can be identified with Green color.
Example:
b. Interpretation using Night Microphysics image:
In night microphysics image, FOG can be identified Bluish green color.

194
Example:
c. Differentiating between low clouds and Fog
Fog can also be distinguished from low cloud by its sharp edge and smooth texture, compared to rough texture and
slow movement of cloud. This can be visualized by running animation of respective images in RAPID.
d. Evolution of the FOG
Genesis, development, spatial extent and movement of Fog can be probed by filling the field in RAPID.
Example: Please click the animation from RAPID
e. Time of onset of Fog
Expected time of onset of FOG at the station can also be assessed by measuring the distance between the station and
edge of the fog patch in latest image. This can be utilized by selecting Distance under option Probe. The rate of
movement can be estimated by running the animation loop in RAPID.
Example:
195
f. Intensity of Fog During night
The onset, intensification of FOG can also be assessed by reading the Temperature difference between TIR1 and MIR
by putting probe at the area of interest. If the Temp difference has increased between time gap of 2 hours, then there
is likelihood of onset and/or intensification of FOG over the particular area during night.
If ≥ 2.5 genesis of FOG

2.5 to 4.0 moderate FOG
4.0 to 6.0 dense FOG
g. Intensity of Fog during Day Time
Making use of Day Microphysics image in RAPID the following criteria can be used to identify fog
Visible Albedo = 16-55%

SWIR Albedo = 31-60%
TIR 1 BT = 276-290K
196
Fog present over particular point Dissipation of Fog on the same point after 1 hr
h. Valley Fog
Formation of Fog in the Mountain / river Valleys. Cold dense air settling into the lower parts of a valley causes it to
condensethereby forming fog which is confined to local topography. SWIR channel imagery with 1km x 1km spatial
resolution provides a better contrast to bring out small scale fog.
Example:
i. Sea Fog
Fog formation over Coastal Sea and adjoining sea area because of advection of moist air over a cooler surface.
Example:
8.5.4. How to refer multi-sources Fog products for reporting timely fog development and issuing early warnings
Two spells of unique fog formation and intensification of 25 Dec 2016 and 9 Jan 2017 at IGI Airport – There were
two cases of unusual fog Intensification reported at late mornings at 0800am of 25 Dec 2016 and 9 Jan 2017 which
were accurately monitor by Rapid, Radiometer and RVR (Shown in two figures at Fig 13 and 14 respectively)
197
Figure 13. 25 Dec 2016 – Late morning Day period of fog Intensification during 0930-1030 IST on 25 Dec as captured
by Drishti RVR, Rapid-Insat 3-D and Raidometer of WIFEXT 2016-17. One may see fall of vis from right to left in lest
nd
top of 2 panel figure with change of wind direction from westerly to eaterly while at en right fig at same sudden
fall of RVR from 030135 UTC to 032255UTC. The radiometer at lowest of panels shows late dense fog formation
198
Figure 14. 9 Jan 2017 –Late morning Day period of fog Intensification during 0830-1030 IST on 9 Jan was captured
by Drishti RVR, Rapid-Insat 3-D and Raidometer of WIFEXT 2016-17
199
Figure 15. NWFC-national level met-sub-division based fog forecast and warning Products
8.6. Fog Products available in Web page and link URL
a. IMD products available on-lin

Live RVR for IGIA, JPR, LKN, AMT and BNG airports
Fog status of previous days -12 most vulnerable for major Airports
Fog forecast by 12 airport
NWFC Winter daily FDP inputs documents/ guidance
Satellite RGB Fog coverage
b. Different Fog forecast products from NWP Models
NCMRWF FOG FORECAST PRODUCTS-
•https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/FOG_FCST/PROB_FCST.htm- Probability NEPS Fog forecast valid for 2 days
200
•https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/FOG_REG_FCST/FOG_REG_FCST.htm -NCUM 12KM Global fog model from NCMRWF

valid for 10 days
•https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/FOG_REG_FCST/FOG_REG_FCST.htm NCUM 4KM Regional fog model from NCMRWF
valid for 3 days
•https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/All_times_Dm-Chem-visibility.php- 330mDelhi fog model -Valid for 2-days
•https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/All_times_DM_Chem-cities.php-1.5km NW India fog- -Valid for 2-days
https://ews.tropmet.res.in/index.php -Spatial vis forecast maps at 2km for Delhi NCR and for NW India at 4km . Also
has Vis met grams for all airports
•https://ews.tropmet.res.in/fog_forecast.php
•https://ews.tropmet.res.in/fog-airports.php
•https://ews.tropmet.res.in/fog-index-2.php
IITM Rail line/Roadways fog forecsat-
•https://ews.tropmet.res.in/fog-rail-lines.php
•https://ews.tropmet.res.in/fog-road-lines.php
 IMD NWP GFS fog diagnostic products
http://nwp.imd.gov.in/gfs_ventilation_index.php
http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html
Figure 16. A state of art Fog web page jointly developed and made operational by IITM-IMD and it is WIFEX Page of
IMD-IIMT where all integrated fog products (RVR, METAR based, satellite and RVR based data and forecast products
from various fog mdeols) are available.
201
8.7. SOP to include Impact based fog forecast tables and suggested action for various fog intensity and occurrences
at district/met sub-division depending upon exposure data
Colour
Alert Warning Impact Suggested Actions
Code
Green No No warning  Nil.  Nil
(No fog/Shallow
action) fog
Yellow Moderate to Moderate fog at  Transport and Aviation:  Transport and
Alert Dense fog scattered places  Difficult driving conditions with slower Aviation and Ferry
(Be and Dense fog journey times. services:
updated) conditions at  Some road traffic collisions (a) Be touch with
isolated pockets  Below Visibility minima at airports in airlines and Railway and
and forecasted the areas may affect aircraft landing/take State transport for
to persist at offs scheduled of your
least for day 1  Inland River Ferry service operations journey “Use fog lights”
or more partially affected b)Careful while driving
or outing through any
transport.
c)Be touch with River
and coastal Ferry
service Operators
Orange Dense fog to Dense fog to  Transport and Aviation:  Transport, Aviation
Alert very dense very dense at a  May affect some airports, highways and Ferry services:
(Be fog few places and railway routes in the areas of met-  Careful while
prepared) already started/ sub-division. also to be affected. driving or outing
forecasted to  Difficult driving conditions with slower through any transport
likely prevail/ journey times.  Use fog lights
persist at least  Some road traffic collisions during driving
for day 1 or  Inland River Ferry service operation  Be touch with
more likely to be affected airlines, Railway and
State transport for
scheduled of your
 Power Sector: journey
 Tripping of Power lines  Be touch with River
 Human Health: Ferry service Operators
 Lung related health impacts: Dense fog  Power Sector:
contains particulate matter and other  To keep ready
pollutants and in case exposed it gets Maintenance Team
lodged in the lungs, clogging them and  Human Health:
decreasing their functional capacity which  To avoid outing
increases episodes of wheezing, coughing until unless emergency
and shortness of breath and to cover the face.
 Impact on people having asthma
bronchitis: Long time exposure to dense
fog may cause respiratory problem for
people having asthma bronchitis and
other lung related health problems.
 Causes Eye Irritation: Dense fog
contains pollutions of various types and
these Pollutants in the air if exposed may
tend to irritate the membranes of the eye
causing various infections leading to
redness or swelling of the eye.
202
Red Alert Dense to Very Wide spread/  Transport and Aviation:  Transport and
dense fog at FWS dense fog  Closure of rail routes, train Aviation:
(Take most or many with SCTD and diversions/delays/cancellation of trains
Action) locations in FWS Very dense  High way severely affected  Do not drive unless
the MET- fog reported in  Airport which has CAT-IIIB becomes very urgent. Drive very
Sub-Div the met-Sub-div partially operational, but with highly slowly.
or forecasted to reduced capacity and hence it has high  Use fog lights
prevail in Day chance of likely flight delays  Carry all essential
 Cold day conditions over the areas items in view of
 River and coastal Ferry service flights/trains/bus
operation to be fully suspended highway operating,
likely to be delayed
Power Sector: and/or stranded at
 Tripping of Power lines airports and/or ferry at
Human Health: terminals.
 Lung related health impacts: Dense fog  Be touch with
contains particulate matter and other airlines and Railway
pollutants and in case exposed it gets and State transport for
lodged in the lungs, clogging them and scheduled of your
decreasing their functional capacity which journey.
increases episodes of wheezing, coughing  Be touch with River
and shortness of breath Ferry service Operators
 Impact on people having asthma
bronchitis: Long time exposure to dense  Power Sector:
fog may cause respiratory problem for To keep ready
people having asthma bronchitis and Maintenance Team
other lung related health problems.
 Causes Eye Irritation: Dense fog  Human Health:
contains pollutions of various types and To avoid outing until
these Pollutants in the air if exposed may unless emergency and
tend to irritate the membranes of the eye to cover the face.
causing various infections leading to
redness or swelling of the eye.
203
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Pettersen, S., (1939), Some aspects of formation and dissipation of fog., Geof Pubt. Norw. Acc. of Sci., 12, No. 10.
Roach, W., (1995), Back to Basics: Fog: Part 2- The Formation and Dissipation of Land Fog. Weather, 50, 7-11.
Roy Bhowmik, S.K., Sud, A.M. and Singh Charan, (2004), Forecasting Fog over Delhi – An objective method, Mausam,
55, 313-322
Singh, R.D., Singh, Dhanna and Dube, R.K., (1999), Climatology and trend of visibility of IGI airport, New Delhi and
their uses in forecasting, Proceedings of National symposium TROPMET-1999, India Meteorological Society, Chennai,
pp 623-628.
Srivastava T.P., Arora P.K. and Sharma G.P. , (2009), Prediction of radiation fog over north-west India using mesoscale
NWP models, personal communication from Indian Air Force (cnwp.met@gmail.com)
Stanski, H.R., Willson, L.J. and Bossous W.R., (1989), “Survey of Common verification method in Meteorology, “
WMO T.NO. 358, WMO Geneva.
Taylor G.I., (1917): The Formation of fog and mist. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.. 43, pp 241-268.
Willson, L.J., (1988), "Objective weather element prediction by multiple discriminating analysis", WMO T.D. No.. 213,
155-162.
Wilson, James W., Yerong Feng, Min Chen, Rita D. Roberts, 2010: Nowcasting Challenges during the Beijing Olympics:
Successes, Failures, and Implications for Future Nowcasting Systems. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1691–1714.
WMO, 2008, WWRP 2009-I, Recommendations for the verification and intercomparison ofof QPFS and PQPFS from
operational NWP Models, WMO TD No. 1485, Available on the web at: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/
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Chapter 9
Nowcasting Services
9.1. Introduction
A highly populated tropical country like India is very much vulnerable to severe/ high impact Meso-scale weather
events and requires an effective and efficient now-casting technique to mitigate the adverse effects of various
weather events. In India Meteorological Department, Nowcasting comprises the detailed description of the current
weather along with forecasts obtained by extrapolation for a period of 0 to 3 hours ahead. In this time frame, it is
possible to forecast small features such as individual storms with reasonable accuracy. A forecaster using the latest
radar, satellite and observational data is able to make analysis of the small-scale features present in a small area such
as a city and make an accurate forecast for the following few hours. It is, therefore, a powerful tool in warning the
public of hazardous, high-impact weather including tropical cyclones, thunderstorms and tornados which cause heavy
rains, flash floods, hails, lightning strikes and destructive winds.
In addition to using Now-casting for warning the public of hazardous weather, it is also used for aviation weather
forecasts in the terminal and en-route environment, marine safety, water and power management, off-shore oil
drilling, construction industry and leisure industry. The strength of Now-casting lies in the fact that it provides
location-specific forecasts of storm initiation, growth, movement and dissipation, which allows for specific preparation
for a certain weather event by people in a specific location.
The elements to be included in the purview of the nowcasting in IMD will include:
(i) Thunderstorms and accompanying severe weather
(ii) Rainfall
9.2. Objective
In view of the increased public awareness of the high impact of severe weather events and its influence on social,
cultural, commercial, health, defence, transport etc., it is felt that there is a requirement of a well laid out system/
methodology for monitoring and nowcasting of these weather events by India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Hence there is a need to develop a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP), to provide uniform monitoring and
nowcasting services of above mentioned weather events.
In addition to this, the nowcasting will help in Aviation, disaster management and Urban forecasting.
9.3. Standard Operating Procedure of Nowcast Services in IMD
The nowcast advisories for severe weather are issued by State Meteorological Centres at three hourly intervals for
major cities as well as all districts of India round the clock. Nowcasts are currently being issued for 739 districts and
about 894 stations throughout India in the beginning of 2020. (List of stations for which nowcasts are currently being
issued is attached as Appendix 1). The list of stations for which nowcasts are issued includes most of the district
headquarters all over India as well as towns and cities that are important for commercial or tourism purposes. These
Nowcast warnings are updated on the IMD website at 3 hourly intervals at
https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/stationwise-nowcast-warning.php. Additionally, district level
nowcasts are also updated every three hours on the IMD website (https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd
latest/contents/districtwisewarnings.php). When severe weather is expected, for maximum effectiveness of the
warning, detailed SMS / Whatsapp messages and e-mails are issued to district collectors, State Disaster Management
Authorities and local administration of the district concerned apart from print and electronic media.
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9.3.1. Categories for Nowcasting
i) No weather
ii) Light rain: < 5 mm/hr
iii) Light snow < 5cm/hr
iv) Light Thunderstorms with maximum surface wind speed upto 40 kmph
v) Slight dust storm: If the wind speed is up to 40 kmph and visibility is less than 1,000 metres but more than 500
meters due to dust
vi) Low cloud to ground Lightning probability (< 30% probability of lightning occurrence)
vii) Moderate rain: 5-15 mm/ hr
viii) Moderate snow: 5-15 cm/ hr
ix) Moderate Thunderstorms with maximum surface wind speed between 41 – 61 kmph (In gusts).
x) Moderate dust storm: If the wind speed is between 41- 61 kmph and visibility is between 200 and 500 metres
due to dust
xi) Moderate cloud to ground Lightning probability (30 - 60% probability of lightning occurrence)
xii) Heavy rain: >15 mm/hr
xiii) Heavy snow: >15 cm/hr
xiv) Severe Thunderstorms with maximum surface wind speed between 62 -87 kmph (In gusts).
xv) Very Severe Thunderstorms with maximum surface wind speed > 87 kmph (In gusts).
xvi) Thunderstorms with Hail
xvii) Severe dust storm: If surface wind speed (in gusts) exceeding 61 kmph and visibility is less than 200 metres due
to dust
xviii) High cloud to ground Lightning probability ( > 60% probability of lightning occurrence)
xix) Other warnings (to be filled by the user MC)
9.3.2. Impact colours of Nowcasting
The impact expected due to the severe weather has also been added to the nowcast warnings in terms of colour
codes as follows:
i) Green colour (No weather)
ii) Yellow colour (Light rain: < 5 mm/ hr/ Light snow < 5cm/ hr / Light Thunderstorms with maximum surface wind
speed upto 40 kmph / Slight dust storm with wind speed up to 40 kmph and visibility is less than 1,000 metres but
more than 500 meters due to dust / Low ( < 30%)probability of cloud to ground lightning occurrence)
iii) Orange colour (Moderate rain: 5-15 mm/hr/ Moderate snow: 5-15 cm/ hr / Moderate Thunderstorms with
maximum surface wind speed between 41 – 61 kmph (In gusts)/ Moderate dust storm with wind speed between 41-
61 kmph and visibility between 200 and 500 metres due to dust/ Moderate (30 - 60%) probability of cloud to ground
lightning occurrence)
iv) Red colour (Heavy rain: >15 mm/ hr / Heavy snow: >15 cm/ hr / Severe Thunderstorms with maximum surface
wind speed between 62 -87 kmph (In gusts)/ Very Severe Thunderstorms with maximum surface wind speed
> 87 kmph (In gusts)/ Thunderstorms with Hail / Severe dust storm with surface wind speed (in gusts) exceeding
61 kmph and visibility is less than 200 metres due to dust/ High (> 60%) probability of cloud to ground lightning
occurrence).
207
All these developments have greatly increased the quality, outreach and effectiveness of severe weather warnings
issued by IMD.
Details of the Impact assessment and suggested action are included in Appendix 2 and also in the IBF SOP.
9.3.3. Organization of nowcast services in IMD
Meteorological centres located at each state perform the core role of operational now-casting in IMD. The MC is
responsible for monitoring and dissemination of nowcast information to various stakeholders with guidance from the
Nowcast division at New Delhi as shown in the Figure 1 below.
Medium Range forecast for upto 5 days from HQ

New Delhi
Severe Weather Advisory for upto 48 hours from HQ

Delhi
Nowcast for every 3 hours from State Cultural Events

IMD
Website Meteorological Offices Games
Press and Power

Media Sector,
Railways
Defence VIP Movements State and Gramin Aviation

(Army, Navy, Air National Krishi Services,
Force) Disaster Mausam Airport
Managers Seva Met Office
Project
Figure 1. Salient features of organizational structure
9.3.4. Data Inputs (data products and their availability)
In order to give accurate nowcasts in real time, forecaster at the MC will require the following data as per figure 2
given below:
Guidance Bulletins Airport Met Office Digital Data from
from NWFC and other observing systems
Centres
Products from Automatic
Current weather from Nowcasting System systems
observatories such as SWIRLS, R-Alert,
Meteorological Centre Nowcast
Decision Support System SCOPE Nowcast etc
Defence
(Airport/Navy/Airforce
Real time lightning data
)
Radar and Satellite NWP model output Diagnostic Charts of

bulletins/images products for Analysed Data
Nowcasting
Figure 2. Data and Forecast support to Nowcast Unit at Meteorological centres

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Digital Data from observing systems will include
• Data from AWS, AWOS, GPS, ARG, Wind Profiler data, lightning detection network data, RSRW data and synop
observatory data
• Satellite digital data including radiance data from different channels, satellite derived winds, precipitation
estimates, Sea Surface temperature, Vertical profile of temperature and humidity, sea surface winds, liquid
water content, aerosol content of the atmosphere.
• Radar digital data includes reflectivity, radial velocity, spectrum width and derived products.
Derived Nowcast Guidance data will include
• NWP Model outputs from NWP Division, New Delhi and also other MoES organizations such as IITM, NCMRWF
• Automatic nowcast guidance products such as R-Alert, SWIRLS, SCOPE Nowcast etc
Analysed Data includes
• From weather charts uploaded by NWFC.
Forecast Bulletins including
• Extended range to Medium Range weather Bulletins of NWFC IMD

• Severe Weather Advisory of NWFC IMD
• Nowcast Guidance Bulletins of neighbouring Meteorological Centres
• Aviation forecasts of airports in the region
Real time availability of the raw data to the forecaster is essential for effective nowcasting. If data from any source is
not available, forecaster will inform corresponding RMC and NWFC and make suitable effort to rectify the problem.
Forecasts for a particular region issued at NWFC will be used by respective MC as guidance to issue nowcast as and
when warranted.
A current list of some products that are to be used for Nowcasting purposes is given below as Appendix 3. Links to
many of these products are also available at the Thunderstorm forecast webpage
https://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/ts_prediction_system/index.php.
9.3.5. Time line for analysis, forecast and dissemination of Nowcasts by a Nowcast Centre:
HH : Appreciation of the scenario through synoptic and NWP analysis and forecast,
Analysis of hourly data and products (satellite, AWS, ARG, Metar, Speci etc)
HH+15 : Monitoring radar products (every 10 minutes) and nowcast model products
HH+30 : Preparation of Check list and decision making
HH+45 : Generation of nowcast bulletin
HH+55 : Uploading and dissemination
209
9.3.6. Decision Tree of Nowcasting of Thunderstorm over a Station or District
Severe Weather Guidance Bulletin from NWFC
Determine area of occurrence and Current Satellite Imagery and Products

intensity
Current Radar Imagery and Products
Determine the probability of occurrence Current weather observations
Lightning observations
Determine potential impact of the severe
weather SWIRLS nowcast products
Based on 2 and 3, determine the colour NWP mesoscale model products valid for the
code of warning (green, yellow, orange current time
or red) following colour matrix defined in
SOP for impact based forecast and risk
based warning
YES Prepare nowcast bulletin for station and

SEVERE WEATHER EVENT district
NO
Issue nowcast bulletin through
Update on Nowcast Warning WEB Page MOBILE/ RADIO/ sms/ e-mail/
Inform RMC,NWFC, DISASTER TV/ MEDIA/ Power Farmers through

Airport Met Office, MANAGERS, District sector/ Cultural Gramin Krishi Mausam
Defence (Airport/ Collectorate Events,Games events/ Sewa project (GKMS)
Navy/Airforce)
9.3.7. Nowcasts to be issued by Nowcast Centre at State Meteorological Office
(a) Station level Nowcast : To be issued at three hourly intervals by Meteorological Centres for stations. This list
includes: District Headquarters, Tourism important cities, cities along major pilgrimage routes, IMD observatories.
These shall be updated on IMD website.
(b) District level Nowcast : To be issued at three hourly intervals by Meteorological Centres for stations. These shall
be updated on IMD website.Warning will be issued by MCs and RMCs of IMD for districts within their domain only
when severe weather is expected over a district along with start and end time in IST. There is a separate web page
from the above.
(c) In case of Severe weather, Nowcast Warning Bulletins are to be issued at district level. These Nowcast Bulletins
are to be issued through telephone/ SMS/ whatsapp/e-mail/ twitter/Instagram/Facebook/Social Media update/ media
channels/FM radio for all districts to be warned.
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Nowcast Warning Bulletin format
Nowcast warning consists of followings:
i) Text format-
All forecast/ warnings will be issued at the time scale of hours and spatial scale of districts from corresponding MC as
per sample format given in Appendix 4.
ii)Visual Format-
Any supporting evidence in the form of satellite or radar pictures or any other relevant images.
Impacts and suggested actions associated with thunderstorms and associated phenomena are mentioned in
Appendix 2.
MCs can slightly modify the format of Nowcast Bulletin as per Station Requirements. However, all the elements of
the Sample format should appear in the bulletin.
Some sample bulletins are enclosed as Appendix 5.
9.3.8. Stakeholders (National/ regional and state level)
Natural calamities can occur due to many types of severe weather events. These severe weather events can cause
wide spread loss to life and property. Therefore, it is but natural that Govt./authorities at national and state level
should be informed well in time about the impending weather and situations likely to cause damage to public life and
property.
Thus at MC level it is of paramount importance that information is passed promptly to district level disaster manager
which in turn can inform the state authorities for taking necessary actions.
At national level as soon as NWFC receives information about the severe weather events likely to cause widespread
damage to a particular region, NWFC will inform the concerned authority at national level.
In additional to the Government agencies as stakeholders in the nowcasting mechanism, interested private
organizations, universities, and foreign users also need to be brought on board. Their inputs need to be incorporated
to improve the quality of nowcasts, give a feedback regarding the products and helping in the overall efficiency of the
nowcasting system.
9.3.9. Post event review, feedback, documentation
For validating nowcast products, it is important for post event review of the occurrence, location and intensity of the
disturbed weather.
Review of severe weather nowcasts should be carried out continuously. For this, feedback from the stakeholders
(especially the district administration) is necessary. Met centre should have liaison with the district administration in
this regard.
In-house verification of all nowcasts should be carried out on a monthly basis and results thereof should be logged in
the nowcast register. For this purpose Met centre has to maintain a nowcast register. These registers should be
reviewed every month by Nowcast Station In charge.
After every major event in the state/ region of monitoring, a casebook may be created comprising the following
 Medium range forecast issued at state level for the event
 Nowcasts issued for the event by the state (along with list of persons to whom it has been issued)
211
 Supporting observations if any
 Press release and meetings and phone call logs to State Authorities about the event.
9.3.10. Pre-season exercise
Every season in the country has peculiar severe weather hazards which cause extensive damage to life and property.
Hence all MCs should have
• Pre-season exercise with state government officials, media persons and NGOs raising awareness of major
weather hazards of the season, IMDs services and bulletins and discuss the action to be taken at the ground
levels based on different bulletins of IMD.
• Season wise forecasting hints, checklists etc for forecasting of major types of events both qualitatively
(synoptically) as well as quantitatively (various dynamic/thermodynamic parameters) should be kept ready on
forecaster’s desk. This should include checklists for all types of thunderstorms, duststorms, hailstorm, heavy rain
and any other type of event affecting the region. The checklists should be available at the forecaster’s desk, and
periodically revised to include new products as they become available.
• List of officers (with their phone numbers and e-mail ID) to whom Nowcasts are being communicated. This list
should be revised at least once every six months on account of transfer of State Government officers. The list
should be communicated to Nowcast Unit at Delhi every six months.
This will help greatly in successful implementation of the nowcasting system.
9.4. Points for consideration
Successful implementation of nowcast concept will depend on
 Proper an adequate trained manpower at MC / NWFC,
 IT infrastructure and effective communication between various agencies for reception /dissemination of data,
information and warnings.
MCs can prepare their checklist as per their own requirements and the local condition under the broad framework
of this SOP.
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Appendix 1
List of Nowcast Stations
S. No. Nowcast_Centre Station

1. cwc_visakhapatanam Bapatla
2. cwc_visakhapatanam Eluru
3. cwc_visakhapatanam Gannavaram
4. cwc_visakhapatanam Guntur
5. cwc_visakhapatanam Kakinada
6. cwc_visakhapatanam Kalingapatnam
7. cwc_visakhapatanam Kavali
8. cwc_visakhapatanam Machilipatnam
9. cwc_visakhapatanam Nandigama
10. cwc_visakhapatanam Narsapur
11. cwc_visakhapatanam Nellore
12. cwc_visakhapatanam Nidadavolu
13. cwc_visakhapatanam Ongole
14. cwc_visakhapatanam Palakonda
15. cwc_visakhapatanam Jangamaheswarapuram
16. cwc_visakhapatanam Srikakulam
17. cwc_visakhapatanam Tuni
18. cwc_visakhapatanam Vijayawada
19. cwc_visakhapatanam Vishakhapatnam
20. cwc_visakhapatanam Vizianagaram
21. cwc_visakhapatanam Arogyavaram
22. cwc_visakhapatanam Chittoor
23. cwc_visakhapatanam Kadappa
24. cwc_visakhapatanam Kurnool
25. cwc_visakhapatanam Nandyal
26. cwc_visakhapatanam Tirupati
27. cwc_visakhapatanam Amravati
28. mc_agartala Agartala
29. mc_agartala Aizawal
30. mc_agartala Ambassa
31. mc_agartala Belonia
32. mc_agartala Champai
33. mc_agartala Churachandpur
34. mc_agartala Dharmanagar
35. mc_agartala Dimapur
36. mc_agartala Imphal
37. mc_agartala Kailasahar
38. mc_agartala Khowai
39. mc_agartala Kolasib
40. mc_agartala Lawngtlai
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41. mc_agartala Lengpui

42. mc_agartala Lunglie
43. mc_agartala Mamit
44. mc_agartala Sabroom
45. mc_agartala Saiha
46. mc_agartala Sipahijala
47. mc_agartala Udaipur(Gomati)
48. mc_agartala Kohima
49. mc_ahmedabad Amreli
50. mc_ahmedabad Bhuj
51. mc_ahmedabad Botad
52. mc_ahmedabad Dholavira
53. mc_ahmedabad Dwarka
54. mc_ahmedabad Gandhidham
55. mc_ahmedabad Jamnagar
56. mc_ahmedabad Junagadh
57. mc_ahmedabad Mandvi
58. mc_ahmedabad Morbi
59. mc_ahmedabad Naliya
60. mc_ahmedabad New Kandla
61. mc_ahmedabad Okha
62. mc_ahmedabad Porbandar
63. mc_ahmedabad Rajkot
64. mc_ahmedabad Surendranagar
65. mc_ahmedabad Ahmedabad AP
66. mc_ahmedabad Navrangpura
67. mc_ahmedabad Rakhiyal
68. mc_ahmedabad Chandkheda
69. mc_ahmedabad Ahm Satellite
70. mc_ahmedabad ISRO Bopal
71. mc_ahmedabad Raikhad
72. mc_ahmedabad Pirana
73. mc_ahmedabad Gandhi Ng IIPH
74. mc_ahmedabad Gift City
75. mc_ahmedabad Diu
76. mc_ahmedabad VV Nagar
77. mc_ahmedabad Modasa
78. mc_ahmedabad Radhanpur
79. mc_ahmedabad Deesa
80. mc_ahmedabad Bharuch
81. mc_ahmedabad Bhavnagar
82. mc_ahmedabad Chhota Udaipur
83. mc_ahmedabad Dahod
84. mc_ahmedabad Ahwa
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85. mc_ahmedabad Gandhinagar

86. mc_ahmedabad Veraval
87. mc_ahmedabad Nadiad
88. mc_ahmedabad Lunavada
89. mc_ahmedabad Mehsana
90. mc_ahmedabad Rajpipla
91. mc_ahmedabad Navsari
92. mc_ahmedabad Godhra
93. mc_ahmedabad Patan
94. mc_ahmedabad Idar
95. mc_ahmedabad Surat
96. mc_ahmedabad Vyara
97. mc_ahmedabad Vadodara
98. mc_ahmedabad Valsad
99. mc_bengaluru Agumbe
100. mc_bengaluru Bagalkot
101. mc_bengaluru Balehonnur
102. mc_bengaluru Ballari
103. mc_bengaluru Bandipur National Park
104. mc_bengaluru Belagavi
105. mc_bengaluru Bidar
106. mc_bengaluru Chamarajanagar
107. mc_bengaluru Chikballapur
108. mc_bengaluru Chikkamagaluru
109. mc_bengaluru Chikkanahalli
110. mc_bengaluru Chintamani
111. mc_bengaluru Chitradurga
112. mc_bengaluru Dandeli
113. mc_bengaluru Davanagere
114. mc_bengaluru Dharwad
115. mc_bengaluru Gadag
116. mc_bengaluru Gokarna
117. mc_bengaluru Hassan
118. mc_bengaluru Haveri
119. mc_bengaluru Honavar
120. mc_bengaluru Kadajji
121. mc_bengaluru Kalaburagi
122. mc_bengaluru Karwar
123. mc_bengaluru Kolar
124. mc_bengaluru Koppal
125. mc_bengaluru Kumta
126. mc_bengaluru Madikeri
127. mc_bengaluru Mandya
128. mc_bengaluru Mangaluru
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129. mc_bengaluru Murdeshwar

130. mc_bengaluru Mysore
131. mc_bengaluru Raichur
132. mc_bengaluru Ramanagara
133. mc_bengaluru Sagara
134. mc_bengaluru Sambre
135. mc_bengaluru Shirali
136. mc_bengaluru Shivamogga
137. mc_bengaluru Sirsi
138. mc_bengaluru Tumakuru
139. mc_bengaluru Udupi
140. mc_bengaluru Vijayapur
141. mc_bengaluru Yadgir
142. mc_bengaluru Bengaluru HAL
143. mc_bengaluru Bengaluru BIAL
144. mc_bengaluru Bengaluru City
145. mc_bengaluru GKV Kendra
146. mc_bhopal Agar Malwa
147. mc_bhopal Alirajpur
148. mc_bhopal Amarkantak
149. mc_bhopal Anuppur
150. mc_bhopal Ashoknagar
151. mc_bhopal Balaghat
152. mc_bhopal Barwani
153. mc_bhopal Behedaghat
154. mc_bhopal Betul
155. mc_bhopal Bhandhavgarh
156. mc_bhopal Bhimbetka
157. mc_bhopal Bhind
158. mc_bhopal Burhanpur
159. mc_bhopal Chhatarpur
160. mc_bhopal Chhindwara
161. mc_bhopal Chitrakoot
162. mc_bhopal Damoh
163. mc_bhopal Datia
164. mc_bhopal Dewas
165. mc_bhopal Dhar
166. mc_bhopal Dindori
167. mc_bhopal Guna
168. mc_bhopal Gwalior
169. mc_bhopal Harda
170. mc_bhopal Hoshangabad
171. mc_bhopal Indore
172. mc_bhopal Jabalpur
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173. mc_bhopal Jhabua

174. mc_bhopal Kanha
175. mc_bhopal Katni
176. mc_bhopal Khajuraho
177. mc_bhopal Khandwa
178. mc_bhopal Khargone
179. mc_bhopal Mahakaleshwar
180. mc_bhopal Maheshwar
181. mc_bhopal Maihar
182. mc_bhopal Mandla
183. mc_bhopal Mandsaur
184. mc_bhopal Mandu
185. mc_bhopal Morena
186. mc_bhopal Narsinghpur
187. mc_bhopal Neemuch
188. mc_bhopal Omkareshwar
189. mc_bhopal Orcha
190. mc_bhopal Pachmarhi
191. mc_bhopal Panna
192. mc_bhopal Pench
193. mc_bhopal Raisen
194. mc_bhopal Rajgarh
195. mc_bhopal Ratangarh
196. mc_bhopal Ratlam
197. mc_bhopal Rewa
198. mc_bhopal Sagar
199. mc_bhopal Sanchi
200. mc_bhopal Satna
201. mc_bhopal Sehore
202. mc_bhopal Seoni
203. mc_bhopal Shahdol
204. mc_bhopal Shajapur
205. mc_bhopal Sheopur
206. mc_bhopal Shivpuri
207. mc_bhopal Sidhi
208. mc_bhopal Singrauli
209. mc_bhopal Tikamgarh
210. mc_bhopal Udaygiri
211. mc_bhopal Ujjain
212. mc_bhopal Umaria
213. mc_bhopal Vidisha
214. mc_bhopal Bhopal AP
215. mc_bhopal Arera Hills
216. mc_bhopal Nabi Bagh
217
217. mc_bhubneshwar Angul

218. mc_bhubneshwar Balangir
219. mc_bhubneshwar Balasore
220. mc_bhubneshwar Bargarh
221. mc_bhubneshwar Baripada
222. mc_bhubneshwar Boudh
223. mc_bhubneshwar Bhadrak
224. mc_bhubneshwar Bhawanipatna
225. mc_bhubneshwar Bhubaneshwar AP
226. mc_bhubneshwar Berhampur
227. mc_bhubneshwar Chandbali
228. mc_bhubneshwar Chilika Lake
229. mc_bhubneshwar Cuttack
230. mc_bhubneshwar Deogarh
231. mc_bhubneshwar Dhenkanal
232. mc_bhubneshwar Gopalpur
233. mc_bhubneshwar Jagatsinghpur
234. mc_bhubneshwar Jajpur
235. mc_bhubneshwar Jharsuguda
236. mc_bhubneshwar Kendrapara
237. mc_bhubneshwar Keonjhargarh
238. mc_bhubneshwar Khordha
239. mc_bhubneshwar Konark
240. mc_bhubneshwar Koraput
241. mc_bhubneshwar Malkangiri
242. mc_bhubneshwar Nayagarh
243. mc_bhubneshwar Nowrangpur
244. mc_bhubneshwar Nuapada
245. mc_bhubneshwar Paradip Port
246. mc_bhubneshwar Paralakhemundi
247. mc_bhubneshwar Phulbani
248. mc_bhubneshwar Puri
249. mc_bhubneshwar Rayagada
250. mc_bhubneshwar Rourkela
251. mc_bhubneshwar Sambalpur
252. mc_bhubneshwar Sonepur
253. mc_bhubneshwar Sundergarh
254. mc_bhubneshwar Talcher
255. mc_bhubneshwar Bhubaneshwar OUAT
256. mc_chandigarh Ambala
257. mc_chandigarh Amritsar
258. mc_chandigarh Bhatinda
259. mc_chandigarh Bhiwani
260. mc_chandigarh Ferozepur
218
Nowcasting Services
261. mc_chandigarh Jalandhar

262. mc_chandigarh Ludhiana
263. mc_chandigarh Patiala
264. mc_chandigarh Chandigarh AP
265. mc_chandigarh Chandigarh city
266. mc_chandigarh Mohali
267. mc_chandigarh Panchkula
268. mc_chandigarh Barnala
269. mc_chandigarh Faridkot
270. mc_chandigarh Fatehgarh Sahib
271. mc_chandigarh Fazilka
272. mc_chandigarh Gurdaspur
273. mc_chandigarh Hoshiarpur
274. mc_chandigarh Kapurthala
275. mc_chandigarh Mansa
276. mc_chandigarh Moga
277. mc_chandigarh Muktsar
278. mc_chandigarh Pathankot
279. mc_chandigarh Rupnagar
280. mc_chandigarh Sangrur
281. mc_chandigarh Nawanshahr
282. mc_chandigarh Tarn Taran Sahib
283. mc_chandigarh Kaithal
284. mc_chandigarh Kurukshetra
285. mc_chandigarh Sirsa
286. mc_chandigarh Yamunanagar
287. mc_chandigarh Fatehabad
288. mc_dehradun Almora
289. mc_dehradun Badrinath
290. mc_dehradun Bageshwar
291. mc_dehradun Mukteshwar
292. mc_dehradun Chamoli
293. mc_dehradun Champawat
294. mc_dehradun Dehradun
295. mc_dehradun Gangotri
296. mc_dehradun Haridwar
297. mc_dehradun Hemkund Sahib
298. mc_dehradun Joshimath
299. mc_dehradun Munsiyari
300. mc_dehradun Mussoorie
301. mc_dehradun Nanital
302. mc_dehradun Pantnagar
303. mc_dehradun Pithoragarh
304. mc_dehradun Rishikesh
219
305. mc_dehradun Roorkee

306. mc_dehradun Rudraprayag
307. mc_dehradun Srinagar Uttarakhand
308. mc_dehradun Ukhimath
309. mc_dehradun Uttarkashi
310. mc_dehradun Yamunotri
311. mc_dehradun Chakrata
312. mc_dehradun Gairsain
313. mc_dehradun Tehri
314. mc_dehradun Pauri
315. mc_dehradun Lakhamandal
316. mc_dehradun Kotdwar
317. mc_dehradun Kedarnath
318. mc_dehradun Mohkampur
319. mc_dehradun Karanpur
320. mc_dehradun Jhajhara
321. mc_dehradun Sahastradhara
322. mc_dehradun Asharori
323. mc_dehradun UCOST
324. mc_gangtok Gangtok
325. mc_gangtok Tadong
326. mc_goa Anjuna
327. mc_goa Arambol
328. mc_goa Canacona
329. mc_goa Mapusa
330. mc_goa Margao
331. mc_goa Morjim Beach
332. mc_goa Netravali Sanctury
333. mc_goa Panjim
334. mc_goa Ponda
335. mc_goa Querim
336. mc_goa Shiroda
337. mc_goa Vasco
338. mc_goa Pernem
339. mc_goa Old Goa
340. mc_hyderabad Adilabad
341. mc_hyderabad Asifabad
342. mc_hyderabad Bhongir
343. mc_hyderabad Bhupalpally
344. mc_hyderabad Gadwal
345. mc_hyderabad Hyderabad
346. mc_hyderabad Jagtial
347. mc_hyderabad Jangaon
348. mc_hyderabad Kamareddy
220
Nowcasting Services
349. mc_hyderabad Karimnagar

350. mc_hyderabad Khammam
351. mc_hyderabad Kothagudem
352. mc_hyderabad Mahabubabad
353. mc_hyderabad Mahbubnagar
354. mc_hyderabad Mancherial
355. mc_hyderabad Medak
356. mc_hyderabad Nagarkurnool
357. mc_hyderabad Nalgonda
358. mc_hyderabad Narayanpet
359. mc_hyderabad Nirmal
360. mc_hyderabad Nizamabad
361. mc_hyderabad Peddapalli
362. mc_hyderabad Ramagundam
363. mc_hyderabad Sangareddy
364. mc_hyderabad Shamirpet
365. mc_hyderabad Shamshabad
366. mc_hyderabad Siddipet
367. mc_hyderabad Sircilla
368. mc_hyderabad Suryapet
369. mc_hyderabad Vikarabad
370. mc_hyderabad Wanaparthy
371. mc_hyderabad Warangal
372. mc_hyderabad Rajendra Nagar
373. mc_hyderabad Hayathnagar
374. mc_hyderabad Hakimpet
375. mc_hyderabad Patancheru
376. mc_jaipur Bundi
377. mc_jaipur Chittorgarh
378. mc_jaipur Ajmer
379. mc_jaipur Alwar
380. mc_jaipur Bharatpur
381. mc_jaipur Bhilwara
382. mc_jaipur Churu
383. mc_jaipur Bikaner
384. mc_jaipur Jhalawar
385. mc_jaipur Jhunjhunu
386. mc_jaipur Kota
387. mc_jaipur Nagaur
388. mc_jaipur Pilani
389. mc_jaipur Sawimadoipur
390. mc_jaipur Sikar
391. mc_jaipur Barmer
392. mc_jaipur Banswara
221
393. mc_jaipur Baran

394. mc_jaipur Jaipur AP
395. mc_jaipur Vaishali Ng
396. mc_jaipur Transport Ng
397. mc_jaipur Collector Circle
398. mc_jaipur Amer
399. mc_jaipur Dholpur
400. mc_jaipur Dausa
401. mc_jaipur Rawatbhata
402. mc_jaipur Dungarpur
403. mc_jaipur Hanumangarh
404. mc_jaipur Jaisalmer
405. mc_jaipur Jalore
406. mc_jaipur Jodhpur
407. mc_jaipur Phalodi
408. mc_jaipur Karauli
409. mc_jaipur Jawaibandh
410. mc_jaipur Pratapgarh
411. mc_jaipur Rajsamand
412. mc_jaipur Mount Abu
413. mc_jaipur Sri Ganganagar
414. mc_jaipur Anupgarh
415. mc_jaipur Banasthali VDP
416. mc_jaipur Udaipur AP
417. mc_jaipur VIP Colony
418. mc_jaipur Madar Jn.
419. mc_jaipur Mangliyawas
420. mc_jaipur Kharwa
421. mc_jaipur Beawar
422. mc_jaipur New bar
423. mc_jaipur Chandawal
424. mc_jaipur Sojat Road
425. mc_jaipur Marwar Jn.
426. mc_jaipur Bhinwaliya
427. mc_jaipur Rani
428. mc_jaipur Falna
429. mc_jaipur nana
430. mc_jaipur Banas
431. mc_jaipur Kivarli
432. mc_jaipur Sarotra road
433. mc_jaipur Karjoda
434. mc_lucknow Allahabad
435. mc_lucknow Bahraich
436. mc_lucknow Ballia
222
Nowcasting Services
437. mc_lucknow Banda

438. mc_lucknow Bareilly
439. mc_lucknow Fatehpur
440. mc_lucknow Ghazipur
441. mc_lucknow Gorakhpur
442. mc_lucknow Hamirpur_UP
443. mc_lucknow Hardoi
444. mc_lucknow Jaunpur
445. mc_lucknow Kanpur
446. mc_lucknow Orai
447. mc_lucknow Raebareli
448. mc_lucknow Shahjahanpur
449. mc_lucknow Sultanpur
450. mc_lucknow Varanasi
451. mc_lucknow Ambedkar Nagar
452. mc_lucknow Amethi
453. mc_lucknow Amroha
454. mc_lucknow Auraiya
455. mc_lucknow Azamgarh
456. mc_lucknow Badaun
457. mc_lucknow Baghpat
458. mc_lucknow Balrampur
459. mc_lucknow Barabanki
460. mc_lucknow Basti
461. mc_lucknow Bijnor
462. mc_lucknow Chandauli
463. mc_lucknow Chitrakoot
464. mc_lucknow Deoria
465. mc_lucknow Etah
466. mc_lucknow Etawah
467. mc_lucknow Faizabad
468. mc_lucknow Farrukhabad
469. mc_lucknow Firozabad
470. mc_lucknow Gonda
471. mc_lucknow Jhansi
472. mc_lucknow Kannauj
473. mc_lucknow Kanpur Dehat
474. mc_lucknow Kasganj
475. mc_lucknow Kaushambi
476. mc_lucknow Kushinagar
477. mc_lucknow Lakhimpur Kheri
478. mc_lucknow Lalitpur
479. mc_lucknow Maharajganj
480. mc_lucknow Mahoba
223
481. mc_lucknow Mainpuri

482. mc_lucknow Mau
483. mc_lucknow Mirzapur
484. mc_lucknow Pilibhit
485. mc_lucknow Pratapgarh
486. mc_lucknow Rampur
487. mc_lucknow Saharanpur
488. mc_lucknow Sant Kabir Nagar
489. mc_lucknow Bhadohi (Sant Ravidas
490. mc_lucknow Sambhal
491. mc_lucknow Shravasti
492. mc_lucknow Siddharthnagar
493. mc_lucknow Sitapur
494. mc_lucknow Sonbhadra
495. mc_lucknow Unnao
496. mc_lucknow Lucknow AP
497. mc_lucknow Hanuman Setu
498. mc_lucknow Flood Control
499. mc_lucknow Malihabad
500. mc_lucknow Mohanlalganj
501. mc_patna Jehanabad
502. mc_patna Hajipur
503. mc_patna Gopalganj
504. mc_patna Buxar
505. mc_patna Bihar Sharif
506. mc_patna Bhagalpur
507. mc_patna Bhabhua
508. mc_patna Bettiah
509. mc_patna Chappra
510. mc_patna Dehri
511. mc_patna Dharbanga
512. mc_patna Gaya
513. mc_patna Muzaffarpur
514. mc_patna Jamui
515. mc_patna Banka
516. mc_patna Begusarai
517. mc_patna Arrah
518. mc_patna Araria
519. mc_patna Arwal
520. mc_patna Aurangabad
521. mc_patna Katihar
522. mc_patna Khagaria
523. mc_patna Kishanganj
524. mc_patna Lakhisarai
224
Nowcasting Services
525. mc_patna Madhepura

526. mc_patna Madhubani
527. mc_patna Motihari
528. mc_patna Munger
529. mc_patna Nalanda
530. mc_patna Nawada
531. mc_patna Purnea
532. mc_patna Rajgir
533. mc_patna Saharsa
534. mc_patna Samastipur
535. mc_patna Sasaram
536. mc_patna Sheikhpura
537. mc_patna Sheohar
538. mc_patna Sitamarhi
539. mc_patna Siwan
540. mc_patna Supaul
541. mc_patna Valmiki Nagar
542. mc_patna Patna AP
543. mc_patna Patna City
544. mc_raipur Ambikapur
545. mc_raipur Baikunthpur
546. mc_raipur Balod
547. mc_raipur Baloda Bazar
548. mc_raipur Balrampur
549. mc_raipur Bemetara
550. mc_raipur Bijapur
551. mc_raipur Bilaspur
552. mc_raipur Dantewada
553. mc_raipur Dhamtari
554. mc_raipur Durg
555. mc_raipur Gariaband
556. mc_raipur Jagdalpur
557. mc_raipur Janjgir
558. mc_raipur Jashpur
559. mc_raipur Kanker
560. mc_raipur Kawardha
561. mc_raipur Kondagaon
562. mc_raipur Korba
563. mc_raipur Mahasamund
564. mc_raipur Mungeli
565. mc_raipur Narayanpur
566. mc_raipur Raigarh
567. mc_raipur Rajnandgaon
568. mc_raipur Sukma
225
569. mc_raipur Surajpur

570. mc_raipur Lalpur
571. mc_raipur Raipur Mana
572. mc_raipur Labhandi
573. mc_ranchi Bokaro
574. mc_ranchi Chatra
575. mc_ranchi Deoghar
576. mc_ranchi Dhanbad
577. mc_ranchi Dumka
578. mc_ranchi Garhwa
579. mc_ranchi Giridih
580. mc_ranchi Godda
581. mc_ranchi Gumla
582. mc_ranchi Hazaribag
583. mc_ranchi Jamshedpur
584. mc_ranchi Jamtara
585. mc_ranchi Khunti
586. mc_ranchi Koderma
587. mc_ranchi Latehar
588. mc_ranchi Lohardaga
589. mc_ranchi Pakur
590. mc_ranchi Palamu
591. mc_ranchi West Singhbhum
592. mc_ranchi East Singhbhum
593. mc_ranchi Ramgarh
594. mc_ranchi Ranchi
595. mc_ranchi Sahibganj
596. mc_ranchi Saraikela Kharsawan
597. mc_ranchi Simdega
598. mc_ranchi Kanke
599. mc_shimla Bilaspur(HP)
600. mc_shimla Chamba
601. mc_shimla Hamirpur_HP
602. mc_shimla Dharamsala
603. mc_shimla Keylong
604. mc_shimla Mandi
605. mc_shimla Shimla City
606. mc_shimla Nahan
607. mc_shimla Solan
608. mc_shimla Una
609. mc_shimla Manali
610. mc_shimla Dalhousie
611. mc_shimla Kalpa
612. mc_shimla kangra
226
Nowcasting Services
613. mc_shimla Bhuntar

614. mc_shimla Sundernagar
615. mc_shimla Baddi
616. mc_shimla Dehra Gopipur
617. mc_shimla Jogindernagar
618. mc_shimla Kaza
619. mc_shimla Paonta Sahib
620. mc_shimla Pooh
621. mc_shimla Sarahan
622. mc_shimla Shimla AP
623. mc_srinagar Anantnag
624. mc_srinagar Baltal
625. mc_srinagar Bandipora
626. mc_srinagar Banihal
627. mc_srinagar Baramulla
628. mc_srinagar Batote
629. mc_srinagar Budgam
630. mc_srinagar Chandanwari
631. mc_srinagar Ganderbal
632. mc_srinagar Gulmarg
633. mc_srinagar Gund
634. mc_srinagar Handwara
635. mc_srinagar Holy Cave
636. mc_srinagar Jammu City
637. mc_srinagar Kukernag
638. mc_srinagar Kupwara
639. mc_srinagar Phalgam
640. mc_srinagar Panchtarni
641. mc_srinagar Qazigund
642. mc_srinagar Sheshnag
643. mc_srinagar Shopian
644. mc_srinagar Sopore
645. mc_srinagar Srinagar City
646. mc_srinagar Udhampur
647. mc_srinagar Vaishno Devi
648. mc_srinagar Jammu AP
649. mc_srinagar Leh
650. mc_srinagar Srinagar AP
651. mc_srinagar Dal Lake
652. mc_srinagar Gilgit
653. mc_srinagar Skardu
654. mc_srinagar Chilas
655. mc_srinagar Kharmang
656. mc_srinagar Khaplu
227
657. mc_srinagar Hunza

658. mc_srinagar Muzaffarabad
659. mc_srinagar Shigar
660. mc_srinagar Ghizer(Ghakuch)
661. mc_srinagar Astore
662. mc_srinagar Nagar
663. mc_srinagar Mirpur
664. mc_srinagar Kotli
665. mc_srinagar Hattian(Jhelum Valley)
666. mc_srinagar Bagh
667. mc_srinagar Bhimbar
668. mc_srinagar Nilam
669. mc_thiruvananthapuram Alappuzha
670. mc_thiruvananthapuram Aryankavu
671. mc_thiruvananthapuram Ernakulam
672. mc_thiruvananthapuram Kakkanad
673. mc_thiruvananthapuram Kochi
674. mc_thiruvananthapuram Kollam
675. mc_thiruvananthapuram Kottayam
676. mc_thiruvananthapuram Kovalam
677. mc_thiruvananthapuram Kumarakom
678. mc_thiruvananthapuram Kumily
679. mc_thiruvananthapuram Munnar
680. mc_thiruvananthapuram Painavu
681. mc_thiruvananthapuram Pathanamthitta
682. mc_thiruvananthapuram Periyar NP
683. mc_thiruvananthapuram Ponmudi
684. mc_thiruvananthapuram Punalur
685. mc_thiruvananthapuram Sabarimala
686. mc_thiruvananthapuram Thekkady
687. mc_thiruvananthapuram Thiruvananthapuram AP
688. mc_thiruvananthapuram Thrissur
689. mc_thiruvananthapuram Varkala
690. mc_thiruvananthapuram Thiruvananthapuram City
691. mc_thiruvananthapuram Palakkad
692. mc_thiruvananthapuram Manjeri
693. mc_thiruvananthapuram Vythiri
694. mc_thiruvananthapuram Kozhikode
695. mc_thiruvananthapuram Kannur
696. mc_thiruvananthapuram Kudulu
697. mc_thiruvananthapuram Agati
698. mc_thiruvananthapuram Aminidivi
699. mc_thiruvananthapuram Kavarati
700. mc_thiruvananthapuram Minicoy
228
Nowcasting Services
701. rmc_chennai Adiramapatinam

702. rmc_chennai Ariyalur
703. rmc_chennai Meenambakkam AP
704. rmc_chennai Coimbatore
705. rmc_chennai Coonoor
706. rmc_chennai Cuddalore
707. rmc_chennai Dharmapuri
708. rmc_chennai Dindigul
709. rmc_chennai Erode
710. rmc_chennai Kanchipuram
711. rmc_chennai Kanyakumari
712. rmc_chennai Karaikal
713. rmc_chennai Karur
714. rmc_chennai Karur Paramathi
715. rmc_chennai Kodaikanal
716. rmc_chennai Kovilangulam
717. rmc_chennai Krishnagiri
718. rmc_chennai Kudimiamalai
719. rmc_chennai Madurai
720. rmc_chennai Mahabalipuram
721. rmc_chennai Manamelkudi
722. rmc_chennai Nagapattinam
723. rmc_chennai Namakkal
724. rmc_chennai Pamban
725. rmc_chennai Perambalur
726. rmc_chennai Periakulum
727. rmc_chennai Puduchheri
728. rmc_chennai Pudukkottai
729. rmc_chennai Ramanathapuram
730. rmc_chennai Salem
731. rmc_chennai Sivaganga
732. rmc_chennai Sivakasi
733. rmc_chennai Thanjavur
734. rmc_chennai The Nilgiris
735. rmc_chennai Theni
736. rmc_chennai Thiruvarur
737. rmc_chennai Thondi
738. rmc_chennai Thoothukudi
739. rmc_chennai Tiruchirapalli
740. rmc_chennai Tirunelveli
741. rmc_chennai Tiruppattur
742. rmc_chennai Tiruppur
743. rmc_chennai Tiruttani
744. rmc_chennai Tiruvallur
229
745. rmc_chennai Tiruvannamalai

746. rmc_chennai Valparai
747. rmc_chennai Vedaranyam
748. rmc_chennai Vellore
749. rmc_chennai Villupuram
750. rmc_chennai Villupuram
751. rmc_chennai Virudhunagar
752. rmc_chennai Yercaud
753. rmc_chennai Nungambakkam
754. rmc_chennai Madhavaram
755. rmc_chennai Ennore
756. rmc_guwahati Cherrapunji
757. rmc_guwahati Dhubri
758. rmc_guwahati Dibrugarh
759. rmc_guwahati Guwahati AP
760. rmc_guwahati Jorhat
761. rmc_guwahati North Lakhimpur
762. rmc_guwahati Shillong
763. rmc_guwahati Silchar
764. rmc_guwahati Dispur
765. rmc_guwahati IIT Guwahati
766. rmc_guwahati Itanagar
767. rmc_kolkata Alipurduar
768. rmc_kolkata Asansol
769. rmc_kolkata Bankura
770. rmc_kolkata Canning
771. rmc_kolkata Chinsura
772. rmc_kolkata Contai
773. rmc_kolkata Cooch Behar
774. rmc_kolkata Darjeeling
775. rmc_kolkata Diamond Harbour
776. rmc_kolkata Digha
777. rmc_kolkata Durgapur
778. rmc_kolkata Haldia
779. rmc_kolkata Jalpaiguri
780. rmc_kolkata Jhargram
781. rmc_kolkata Kalimpong
782. rmc_kolkata Kolkata AP
783. rmc_kolkata Alipore
784. rmc_kolkata Krishnanagar
785. rmc_kolkata Maldah
786. rmc_kolkata Midnapore
787. rmc_kolkata Purulia
788. rmc_kolkata Raiganj
230
Nowcasting Services
789. rmc_kolkata Sagar Island

790. rmc_kolkata Siuri
791. rmc_kolkata Sriniketan
792. rmc_kolkata Tamluk
793. rmc_kolkata Uluberia
794. rmc_kolkata Balurghat
795. rmc_kolkata Bardhaman
796 rmc_kolkata Berhampore
797. rmc_kolkata Basirhat
798. rmc_kolkata Saltlake
799. rmc_kolkata Port Blair
800. rmc_kolkata Nancowry
801. rmc_kolkata Car Nicobar
802. rmc_kolkata Maya Bandar
803. rmc_mumbai Ahmednagar
804. rmc_mumbai Alibag
805. rmc_mumbai Baramati
806. rmc_mumbai Bhimashankar Reserve
807. rmc_mumbai Dahanu
808. rmc_mumbai Dapoli
809. rmc_mumbai Devgad
810. rmc_mumbai Harnai
811. rmc_mumbai Jeur
812. rmc_mumbai Kalyan
813. rmc_mumbai Karad
814. rmc_mumbai Khandala
815. rmc_mumbai Kolhapur
816. rmc_mumbai Mahableshwar
817. rmc_mumbai Malegaon
818. rmc_mumbai Malvan
819. rmc_mumbai Mitbhav Beach
820. rmc_mumbai Colaba
821. rmc_mumbai Santacruz
822. rmc_mumbai Nashik
823. rmc_mumbai Raigad Reserve
824. rmc_mumbai Ratnagiri
825. rmc_mumbai Sangli
826. rmc_mumbai Satara
827. rmc_mumbai Sawantwadi
828. rmc_mumbai Shirdi
829. rmc_mumbai Shrirampur
830. rmc_mumbai Shriramwadi
831. rmc_mumbai Shrivardhan
832. rmc_mumbai Sindhudurg
231
833. rmc_mumbai Thane

834. rmc_mumbai Vengurla
835. rmc_mumbai Vijaydurg
836. rmc_mumbai Vikramgad
837. rmc_mumbai Borivali
838. rmc_mumbai Worli
839. rmc_mumbai Powai
840. rmc_mumbai Dadra Nagar
841. rmc_mumbai Chembur
842. rmc_mumbai Mulund
843. rmc_mumbai Shivajinagar
844. rmc_mumbai Pune Pashan
845. rmc_mumbai Lohegaon AP
846. rmc_nagpur Buldhana
847. rmc_nagpur Akola
848. rmc_nagpur Amravati
849. rmc_nagpur Bhandara
850. rmc_nagpur Brahmapuri
851. rmc_nagpur Chandrapur
852. rmc_nagpur Gadchiroli
853. rmc_nagpur Gondia
854. rmc_nagpur Wardha
855. rmc_nagpur Washim
856. rmc_nagpur Yeotmal
857. rmc_nagpur Sonegaon AP
858. rmc_nagpur CoA Nagpur
859. rmc_nagpur Pusad
860. rmc_nagpur Hinganghat
861. rmc_nagpur Katol
862. rmc_nagpur Ramtek
863. rmc_newdelhi Agra
864. rmc_newdelhi Aligarh
865. rmc_newdelhi Delhi PLM AP
866. rmc_newdelhi Delhi SFD
867. rmc_newdelhi Gurgaon
868. rmc_newdelhi Hissar
869. rmc_newdelhi Karnal
870. rmc_newdelhi Mathura
871. rmc_newdelhi Meerut
872. rmc_newdelhi Noida
873. rmc_newdelhi Rohtak
874. rmc_newdelhi Bulandshahr
875. rmc_newdelhi Ghaziabad
876. rmc_newdelhi Hapur
232
Nowcasting Services
877. rmc_newdelhi Hathras

878. rmc_newdelhi Moradabad
879. rmc_newdelhi Muzaffarnagar
880. rmc_newdelhi Shamli
881. rmc_newdelhi Ayanagar
882. rmc_newdelhi Narela
883. rmc_newdelhi Ridge
884. rmc_newdelhi DU North Campus
885. rmc_newdelhi Jind
886. rmc_newdelhi CharkhiDadri
887. rmc_newdelhi Faridabad
888. rmc_newdelhi Jhajjar
889. rmc_newdelhi Narnaul
890. rmc_newdelhi Nuh
891. rmc_newdelhi Palwal
892. rmc_newdelhi Panipat
893. rmc_newdelhi Rewari
894. rmc_newdelhi Sonipat
233
Appendix 2
Impact, Hazard and Response Matrix for Heavy Rainfall
Very Low Impact Low Impact Medium Impact High Impact
Localized = Single
Localized = Single Widespread = Multiple Districts
District Municipality
District Municipality affected
Business as Usual affected
affected Prolonged strain on emergency
Short term strain on
Business as usual personnel
emergency personnel
Flooding of roads and Widespread flooding of roads

Localized flooding of
settlements (formal and and settlements
susceptible informal
informal) Widespread, prolonged
settlements or roads,
Disruption to municipal disruption to municipal services
low lying areas and
services (water, electricity, (water, electricity, etc.)
bridges
Some pooling of etc.) Widespread transport routes
Localized and short
water on roads or Major disruption of traffic and travel services severely
term disruption to
in rural flow due to major roads affected
municipal services
settlements being flooded or closed Major roads and bridges
(water, electricity,
Day to day Possible damage to roads damaged or washed away
etc.)
activities not and bridges Danger to life (fast flowing
Major roads affected
disturbed Danger to life (fast flowing streams I deep water)
but can be used,
Wet roads streams I deep water) Large communities not
increased travel times
Minimal traffic Some communities accessible/cut-off for a
Minor motor vehicle
congestion temporarily not accessible/ prolonged period
accidents due to
Isolated mudslides cut-off Widespread displacement of
slippery roads
and rock falls Displacement of affected affected communities
Closure of roads
communities Widespread damage to
crossing low water
Damage to property, property, buildings and loss of
bridges
infrastructure and loss of livelihoods
Localized mudslides
livelihood Widespread mudslides and rock
and rock falls
Mudslides and rock falls falls
Damages associated with thunderstorms and associated phenomena
Category/ Structures Communica Agriculture Suggested Actions

Wind tion &
Speed Power
Light Nil Nil Nil Nil
Thunderst
orm
<41 kmph
(21 knots)
Moderate Minor Nil Minor damage to People are advised to keep a
Thunderst damage to Banana trees. Damage watch on the weather for
orms loose / to ripe paddy crops. worsening conditions and be
41 – 61 unsecured ready to move to safer places
kmph structures accordingly.
(22-33
knots)
234
Nowcasting Services
Severe Damage to Minor Some damage to paddy People are advised to take
Thunderst thatched huts. damage to crops, banana, papaya shelter in pukka structures
orms power and trees and orchards and and avoid taking shelter
62 -87 communicat Standing crops. under trees. Farming
kmph ion lines operations to be temporarily
(34 -47 due to suspended during occurrence
knots) breaking of of event. Also move away
branches. from electric poles and wires.
Very Major damage Minor Breaking of tree People are advised to stay
Severe to thatched damage to branches, uprooting of away from weak walls and
Thunderst houses/ huts. power and large avenue trees. structures and take shelter in
orms Roof tops may communicat Moderate damage to pukka structures. People in
Greater blow off. ion lines. banana and papaya affected areas to remain
than 87 Unattached trees. Large dead limbs indoors and avoid water
kmph metal sheets blown from trees. bodies and flying projectiles.
{(47Kt) in may fly. Damage to Standing Farming operations to be
gusts/ crops. temporarily suspended
squall} during occurrence of event.
Thunderst Major damage The fruit, vegetable and People are advised to stay
orm to Kutcha field crops at maturity away from weak walls and
associated structures and stages are more prone structures and take shelter in
with tin and to damage. Damage to pukka structures. People in
Hailstorm asbestos Standing crops. affected areas to remain
roofed indoors.
houses, cars
Actions to be taken for Lightning
• Postpone outdoor activities.
• Remember the 30/30 Lightning Safety Rule: Go indoors if, after seeing lightning, you cannot count to 30 before
hearing thunder. Stay indoors for 30 minutes after hearing the last clap of thunder.
• If out in the open, DO NOT take shelter under a tree.
• Get out of water. This includes getting all small boats out of water and get out of pools, lakes, water bodies.
• If working in an outdoor watery area (e.g. paddy transplantation etc), immediately move out of the field to a dry
area (at least to the field border).
• Get inside a pukka home, pukka building, or hard top automobile (not a convertible or open truck) with doors
and windows closed.
• Stay away from windows and doors and stay off verandas. Close windows and secure outside doors.
• Avoid contact with electrical equipment and landline telephone. Unplug any electronic equipment well before
the storm arrives.
• Avoid contact with plumbing and metal pipes. Do not wash hands, do not take a shower, do not wash utensils
and do not wash clothes.
• If you have insulation like a foam pad or a sack, put it underneath you.
• If no shelter is available, immediately get into the lightning crouch : (Squat or sit in a tight ball, arms wrapped
around your legs. Keep your feet together (touching), head lowered, ears covered, and eyes closed. This makes
you as small a target as possible. Do NOT lie down.)
235
Appendix 3
1. Nowcast Model SWIRLS

Link : http://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/ts_prediction_system/index.php
Description:Through analyzing radar echoes in two successive radar scans, SWIRLS computes the direction and speed
of movement of rain areas to obtain information for the distribution of high-resolution radar echo motion distribution.
2. Mosaic of Radar Reflectivity and winds, superposed by Satellite, Lightning and other data on GIS platform
Link : http://ddgmui.imd.gov.in/radar/leaflet-map-csv-master/mosaic.php
Description:Interactive GIS with user select able overlay of products from Radar, Satellite and Lightning in real time for
combined analysis
3. INSAT 3D Satellite data superposed by Lightning and Radar Reflectivity of individual radars superposed by
Lightning
Link : http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/lightning/
Description:Superposition of INSAT 3D brightness temperature (latest available image) with Lightning data (from IAF,
IITM and LMI network) and Superposition of individual Radar CAPPI image (animated for the last one hour) with
lightning data
4. Meteosat Satellite data superposed by Lightning

Link : http://foreignsat.imd.gov.in/
Description:Superposition of Meteosat satellite brightness temperature (latest available image) with Lightning data
(from IAF and LMI network) provides snapshot information of movement of major lightning areas across the Indian
region
5. IMD hosting EUMETCAST images

Link : http://foreignsat.imd.gov.in/
Description:EUMETCAST products are made available in the website with detailed guide on the interpretation of the
products.
6. SCOPE nowcasting
Link : http://sigma.cptec.inpe.br/scope/
Description: SCOPE Nowcast system provides extrapolation based on rainfall areas upto next three hours based on
HydroTrack , which is similar to ForTrACC technique
7. INSAT-3D based nowcasting

Link : http://www.rapid.imd.gov.in/
Description: INSAT-3D based nowcasting provides extrapolation based on Brightness temperature upto next three
hours based on HydroTrack , which is similar to ForTrACC technique
8. GNSS Integrated Precipitable Water Vapour

Link : http://gnss.imd.gov.in/TrimblePivotWeb/MemberPages/AtmosphericConditions/IpwvMap.aspx
Description: The GNSS-Met system provides four meteorological variables such as Pressure, temperature, humidity
and integrated precipitable water vapour (IPWV) in real time. The IPWV data is updated every 15 min interval and
met data are updated every min
9. NCMRWF-NCUM model Severe weather products

Link : https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/product_main_ind_mihir.php https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/latest_charts.php#
Description: NCUM 4km regional model products upto 72 hours ahead are aimed to aid the prediction of severe
weather associated with thunderstorms over the Indian region.
10. ITM GFS model based Severe weather products

Link : http://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/hires_gefs/gfs_based.php
Description: IITM GEFS model products upto 72 hrs ahead are aimed to aid the prediction of severe weather
associated with thunderstorms over the Indian region
11. ITM WRF model based LPI Lightning products.
236
Nowcasting Services
Link : http://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/lpi/index.php
Description: Threat of Lightning occurrence (as given by Lightning Potential Index) for upto 48 hours ahead at three
hour intervals is provided based on WRF Model
12. ITM WRF model with DLP scheme based Lightning products
Link : http://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/lightening_flash/index.php
Description: Frequency of Lightning occurrence for upto 48 hours ahead at three hour intervals is provided based on
WRF Model
13. IMD GFS model products

Link : http://nwp.imd.gov.in/diagpro_new.php
Description: In addition to GFS basic products on the IMD website, additional diagnostic parameters which are
derived are also made available
14. IMD WRF model products

Link : http://nwp.imd.gov.in/wrfhrl_products.php
Description: In addition to WRF basic products on the IMD website, additional Hourly Reflectivity Values and Storm
Relative Helicity over the Indian region
15. Tropical tidbits

Link : https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/model=gfs&region=io&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&run
Description: Provides model forecasts from various global models including NCEP GFS group, ECMWF, JMA which
allows observers an alternate access to various model forecasts to reach a decision about likely weather
16. Windytv
Link : https://www.windy.com/
Description: It provides easy comparison of various model forecast fields from two very important models: GFS and
ECMWF. Forecaster can easily compare the location of rainfall and other parameters in the two models and reach an
objective decision
17. ECMWF products

Link : https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts
Description: This provides many model products that are very useful to forecasters, including precipitation for the
Indian region
18. Model Forecasts:EFI

Link : http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/TIGGE/tigge_warning.html
Description: The Extreme Forecast Index is computed for many weather parameters, for different forecast ranges
and accumulation periods.
19. Model Forecasts: EFI from NCMRWF

Link : https://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/product_grid_cvr_mihir.php
Description: The Extreme Forecast Index is computed for many weather parameters, for different forecast ranges
and accumulation periods from NCUM Unified model and generated by NCMRWF
20. R-Alert
Link : Available internally at Radar stations
Description: Fully automatic Radar based location specific short term severe weather Alerting system
237
Appendix 4
Format for issue of Severe weather Nowcast in TEXT format
Time of issue…..
Validity time:………………….
Thunderstorms accompanied by ……………. are currently occurring in …………………… districts.
………….(e.g. Thunderstorm/Dust storm etc.) …..…likely to affect ……… Districts ………..within next ….. hours. It may be
accompanied with ………………..and strong winds reaching ………………..kmph or more.
Visibility may reduce to below ……………metres during the period.
Rainfall amount ……occurred in …………………… in last ………….hours.

………. (light/ moderate/ heavy) rainfall likely to affect …… District/ ………..within next ….. hours.
During the period of weather, (IMPACT Dos and Donts)
Warning in local language if possible
Signature
To: User1,
User2
238
Nowcasting Services
Appendix 5
Sample Nowcast Bulletins
Met Center……..

3 HOURLY UPDATE OF ONGOING MUMBAI HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
WARNING NO. 1
DATE: 20-07-2020 TIME OF ISSUE: 12:00 HRS IST
DATE/TIME (IST) OF 11:30 HRS IST OF 20-07-2020 / 06:00 UTC OF 20.07.2020
OBSERVATION
Rainfall realized
a)RAINFALL REPORTS LAST 3-HOURS
FOR TIME ENDING AT 11:30 IST OF STATION NAME WITH TYPE(AWS/SYNOP IMD, ARG, SRG) AND
TODAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
b)CUMULATIVE SINCE RAIN EVENT
STARTED AROUND 08:30 IST OF
TODAY)
Forecast or nowcast As per latest observations, Satacruz and Andheri areas have Very
intense convective clouds which has the potential to cause heavy
to very heavy rainfall during next ………hrs / during …………. To …….
Hours. and it is likely to last next 2-3 hours causing rainfall likely of
6-12cm in 3- hours.
Impact expected The impact expected has to be issued with respect to the
occurring severe weather event.
Action Suggested
Next bulletin will be issued at 09:30 UTC(15:00 IST)

Figure 1 Figure of current observations over map (if available)
Figure 2 RADAR products over map with location details of the city
Figure 3 Satellite Images zoomed over a region for the city
[02/07, 4:11 AM] +91 6386 988 208:
Sir/Madam,
Rain/Thundershowers and Lightning are very likely to occur today during next three hours (valid up to 07:10 hrs. IST)
at few places over Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Balrampur, Bahraich, Lakhimpur Kheri, Prayagraj,
Lalitpur district and adjoining areas.
Meteorological Centre
Lucknow-226009
Date: 02/07/2020
239
####################################################################
[11/07, 2:21 PM] +91 81350 06792: Nowcast Bulletin
Date: 11/07/2020
Time of issue: 14:10 IST
Thunderstorms & Lightning accompanied with moderate to heavy spell of rainfall is very likely to affect parts
of GOALPARA districts during next 1/2 to 3 hours.
PROBABLE IMPACT: Water logging in low lying areas..
-------------------------
Regional Weather Forecasting Centre,
Regional Meteorological Centre, Guwahati
[11/07, 2:26 PM] +91 94354 90381:
অহা তি নি ঘণ্টাৰ বতৰৰ আগজাননী /সতৰ্ক

তা সূ চনা
তা ৰিখ : ১১/০৭/২০২০। সময় : ১৪:১০ ভা মা সময় -----------------------------------------। অহা আধা ঘন্টাৰ পৰা
তি নি ঘণ্টাৰ ভি তৰত ধু বুৰী , দক
্ ষিণ শা লমা ৰা, কোকৰাঝা ৰ আৰু বাক
্ সা জি লা ত বিজ
ু লী ঢেৰেকনি ৰ লগতে মজলী য়া পৰা দবাপি টা
বৰষুণ হো ৱাৰ সম াৱনা ।
্ভ
সা ম
্ভ ৰত পা নীজমা হ'ব পা ৰে।
াব্য প্ ৰভা ৱ:চাপৰ ঠা ইবো
আঞ ্ চলি ক বতৰ বিজ

্ঞ
ান কে ন
্দ
্ র , গু ৱাহা টী
###################################################################
Weather Section Hyderabad ( +917901090675 ) sent: In view of the thunderstorm and hail storm occurrences over
Telangana State. District levels officers/SDMA are requested to intimate the above information if it comes to your
notice ( place, date and approximate time) through weather group whatsapp.
తె లంగా ణ రా ష ్ట్ రంలో ఉరుము లు మరియ ు వడగండ ్ ల వర్ష ం వంటి వా తావరణ పరిస ్థ
ి తులు
ఏర్పడ ి నప్పుడు అవి ఏర్పడ
ి న ప్ రదే శం , తే ద ీ , సమయ ం ( సుమా రుగా ) వంట ి సమ ా చా రం మీ దృష ్ట
ి కి
వచ ్చి నచో వా తావరణాన ిన
ి సంభందించ ి న ఈ గ్ రూపులో . పె ట ్ట
వలసింది గా మనవి.
for Director I/C & Head,
Meteorological Centre, Hyderabad(IMD).
240
Multi-Hazard Early Warning System
Chapter 10
10.1. Introduction
India is vulnerable, in varying degrees, to many disasters. More than 58.6 per cent of the landmass is prone to
earthquakes of moderate to very high intensity; over 40 million hectares (12%) of its land is prone to floods and river
erosion; close to 5,700 kms, out of the 7,516 kms long coastline is prone to Cyclones and Tsunamis; 68% of its
cultivable area is vulnerable to droughts; and its hilly areas are at risk from landslides and avalanches. Apart from
these natural hazards, we need to know about the other manmade hazards which are frequent and cause huge damage
to life and property. It is therefore important that we are aware of how to cope with their effects.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) issue weather warnings when hazardous weather is expected. Often, one type
of weather event would lead to multiple hazards, sometimes once weather associated hazard would trigger another
one or even two or more types of hazards co-exist. Also we are now incorporating the possible impacts, which a
potential weather hazard can cause over an area. Hence prior to discussing the SOP on Multi-Hazard weather warnings,
we need to understand the meanings of certain important terms like ‘Disaster, Hazard, Vulnerability & Risk’.
10.1.1. Disaster
A disaster can be defined as a “A serious disruption in the functioning of the community or a society causing wide
spread material, economic, social or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected society to cope using
its own resources”.
A disaster is a result from the combination of hazard, vulnerability and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce the
potential chances of risk.
A disaster happens when a hazard impact on the vulnerable population and causes damage, casualties and disruption of
their properties and activities. Thus, disaster occurs only when hazards and vulnerability meet. But it is also to be noted
that with greater capacity of the individual/community and environment to face these disasters, the impact of a hazard
reduces. The interrelation between the three major components namely hazard, vulnerability and capacity are given in
the Fig. 10.1. below.
10.1.2. Hazard
Hazard may be defined as “a dangerous condition or even, that threat or have the potential for causing injury to life or
damage to property or the environment.” Hazards can be grouped into two broad categories namely natural and
manmade.
1. Natural hazards are hazards which are caused because of natural phenomena (hazards with meteorological,
geological or even biological origin).
2. Manmade hazards are hazards which are due to human negligence.
The list of hazards is very long. Many occur frequently while others take place occasionally. However, on the basis of
their genesis, they can be categorized as discussed in Table 10.1
241
Vulnerability DISASTER Hazard
Underlying Dynamic Pressure Unsafe Trigger Event Trigger Event

Causes Conditions Earthquake Earthquake
• Limited • Lack of • Dangerous Tsunami Tsunami
Floods Floods
access to - institution location Cyclones Cyclones
resources - education • Dangerous Volcanic eruption Volcanic eruption
• Illness and - training buildings Drought Drought
Landslide Landslide
disabilities - skills • Low War War
• Age/Sex income level Technological accident Technological accident
• Poverty • Population • …………… Environmental pollution Environmental pollution
expansion
• Urbanization
•Uncontrolled
development
• • Environmental
………………… degradation
Figure 10.1. Interrelation between vulnerability, disaster and hazard
10.1.3. Vulnerability
Vulnerability may be defined as “The extent to which a community, structure, services or geographic area is likely to be
damaged or disrupted by the impact of particular hazard, on account of their nature, construction and proximity to
hazardous terrains or a disaster prone area.
Vulnerability can be categorized into physical and socio-economic vulnerability.
10.1.4. Risk
Risk is a “measure of the expected losses due to a hazard event occurring in a given area over a specific time period.
Risk is a function of the probability of a particular hazardous event and the losses each would cause.” The level of risk
depends upon:
 Nature of the hazard
 Vulnerability of the elements which are affected
 Economic value of those elements
242
Table 10.1
Various types of hazards
Types Hazards
Geological Hazards 1. Earthquake 4. Landslide
2. Tsunami 5. Dam burst
3. Volcanic eruption 6. Mine Fire
Weather, Water & 1. Tropical Cyclone 6. Cloudburst
Climatic Hazards 2. Tornado and Hurricane 7. Landslide
3. Floods 8. Heat & Cold wave
4. Drought 9. Snow Avalanche
5. Hailstorm 10. Sea erosion
Environmental Hazards 1. Environmental pollution 3. Desertification
2. Deforestation 4. Pest Infection
Biological 1. Human/Animal Epidemics 3. Floods poisoning
2. Pest attacks 4. Weapons of Mass
Destruction
Chemical, Industrial and 1. Chemical disasters 3. Oil spills/Fires
Nuclear Accidents 2. Industrial disasters 4. Nuclear
Accident related 1. Boat/Road/Train accidents/air 3. Building collapse
crash Rural/ Urban fires 4. Electric Accidents
Bomb/serial bomb blasts 5. Festival related
2. Forest fires disasters
6. Mine flooding
A community/locality is said to be at ‘risk’ when it is exposed to hazards and is likely to be adversely affected by its
impact. Disaster risk management includes all measures which reduce disaster related losses of life, property or assets
by either reducing the hazard or vulnerability of the elements at risk.
10.1.5. Multi-Hazard Forewarning and Impact Assessment
Disaster risk management consists of three broad activities- mitigation, preparedness and early warning. Early warning
consists of hazard forecasts, communication and dissemination.
IMD contributes to risk management in three ways. Firstly, we provide early warning of weather, water and climate
hazards for operational decisions; secondly we support risk and impact assessments to determine who and what is at
risk and why; and thirdly, we work hard to improve forecasts and analyses to help reduce or prevent risks on
continuous basis.
10.1.6. Multi-hazard Warning System to Strengthen disaster preparedness
At times of disaster, impacts and losses can be substantially reduced if authorities, individuals and communities in
hazard-prone areas are well warned with a user friendly and easily understandable ‘Multi-hazard warning System’.
IMD has been providing a variety of meteorological warnings through its general forecasting system presently in
existence. The forecasting centres at RMC/ MC s are providing necessary forecasts to all the users. But owing to the
improvements in the forecasting & dissemination system, there is a need to revise the existing Standard Operating
Procedure (SOP) on various types of hazards like thunderstorms, squall lines, gale winds, snow storms, hail storms etc
that cause severe and wide spread damages to men and material. Hence the SOP document on Multi-Hazard system
has been revised for a comprehensive monitoring, displaying and reporting system on all possible meteorological
hazards, including cyclones, so that no hazard goes un-reported.
243
The following are the major weather hazards dealt with in this Chapter.
1. Heavy Rain / Heavy Snow

2. Thunderstorm / squall / hail / Lightning (combination of)
3. Coastal risks (port warnings)
4. Dangerous Sea (Fishermen warnings)
5. Heat wave
6. Cold wave
7. Fog
8. Tropical Cyclone
10.2. Warning Thresholds
Various thresholds are already in use for various types of hazards in the department. In reality the thresholds need a
revision in view of the hazard realization/ damage potential in a particular region, due to the terrain and environment
of a given region, population density, urbanization, infra-structure, industries and expensive investments, standing
crops at the time of occurrence etc. Prioritization of phenomena is not possible for the country as whole as each
hazard has its own importance for an individual region. Places where mitigation actions are possible and need urgent
action are generally given higher priority.
10.2.1. Heavy Rainfall
Existing criteria for the country as a whole are as follows.
Table 10.2.
Criteria for heavy rainfall
Heavy rain 64.5-115.5 mm/ 24 hrs

Very heavy rain 115.6 -204.4 mm/ 24 hrs
Extremely heavy rain Greater than or equal to 204.5 mm/ 24 hrs
Exceptionally Heavy Rainfall When the amount is a value near about the highest
recorded rainfall at or near the station for the month
or season. However, this term will be used only when
the actual rainfall amount exceeds 12 cm.
Places in north-east are on various hilly slopes and smaller cities on east and west coast are in close proximity to the
eastern and western ghats that serve as rapid draining mechanisms into the open seas. But plain areas like Gangetic
plains and mega cities without proper drain arrangements like Chennai suffer severely even for smaller amount of
rains.
10.2.2. Thunder storm/ squall
Thunderstorm/ squall are phenomena associated with summer season, low pressure systems, cyclones, and
sometimes local weather systems.
There is a separate SOP for issue of warnings regardingthe hazards of Thunderstorm/Squall. To add to other inputs like
NWP, known TS genesis and track climatology has to be generated season wise based on Radar observations to assist
the Hazard analysis of Thunderstorms.
10.2.3. Heat Wave
Existing Criteria for heat wave are as follows.
244
Table 10.3.
Criteria for Heat wave

0
1)Heat wave is considered if maximum temperature of a station reaches at least 40 C
0
Or more for Plains and at least 30 C or more for Hilly regions.
a) Based on Departure from Normal
0 0
Heat Wave Departure from normal is 4.5 C to 6.4 C
0
Severe Heat Wave Departure from normal is >6.4 C
b)Based on Actual Maximum Temperature
0
Heat Wave When actual maximum temperature ≥ 45 C
0
Severe Heat Wave When actual maximum temperature ≥47 C
2)Heat Wave for coastal stations: When maximum temperature departure is 4.5
0
C or more from normal, Heat Wave may be
described provided actual maximum
0
temperature is 37 C or more.
0
3)Warm night :It should be considered only when maximum temperature remains 40 C or more. It may
be defined based on departures or actual minimum temperatures as follows:
0
Warm night : minimum temperature departure is 4.5 C to
0
6.4 C
0
Very warm night : minimum temperature departure is >6.4 C
10.2.4. Cold Wave
Existing Criteria for cold wave is as follows.
Table 10.4.
Criteria for Cold wave
1) It should be based on the actual minimum temperature of a station. Cold Wave is considered when
0
minimum temperature of a station is 10 C or less for plains and 0°C or less for Hilly regions.
a) Based on Departure from Normal
0 0
Cold Wave Negative departure from normal is 4.5 C to 6.4 C
0
Severe Cold Wave Negative departure from normal is >6.4 C
b) Based on Actual Maximum Temperature
Cold wave
0
Severe Cold Wave When actual minimum temperature ≥ 04 C
When actual minimum temperature is ≤ 02°C
“Cold Wave” for coastal stations When minimum temperature departure is -4.5°C or less
over a station, “Cold Wave” may be described if the
0
minimum temperature is 15 C or less.
2) Cold Day
In the plains of north India, foggy conditions prevail during winter for several days or weeks. The
minimum temperature on these days remains above normal, while maximum temperature remains much
below normal. This creates cold conditions for prolonged period. To cover such situations the concept of
0
“cold day” is introduced.It should be considered when minimum temperature is 10 C or less for plains
and 0°C or less for Hilly regions
Cold day: Maximum Temperature Departure is -4.5°C to -6.4°C

Severe Cold day: Maximum Temperature Departure is < -6.4°C
245
10.2.5. Cyclone
The categorization of cyclone warning is given below in Table 8.5
Table 10.5.
Categorization of Cyclone Warning Bulletins
Category Description Stage

Cyclone Alert Issued at least 48 hours before the commencement Yellow
of bad weather when a system is located about 500
Km or more away from the coast. The forecast may
not contain information about landfall and hence it is
still of informatory type but at the same time meant
to trigger preparatory actions. During this stage,
Disaster Managers plan on the course on action
required to be initiated once the system moves closer
to the coast.
Cyclone Warning These messages are issued 24 hours before Orange
commencement of bad weather and are of a “serious
nature”. During this stage the system is monitored
closely and the expected place and time of landfall
and the districts along the coastal areas likely to be
affected are clearly indicated in the warning
messages. The location of the system at this stage
may still be 300 km – 500 Km away from the coast.
Disaster Management Machinery is expected to be
geared up fully during this phase.
Post landfall During this phase warning messages are issued about Red
outlook: 12 hours before actual landfall and are of a “very
serious nature”. At this stage, it is expected that the
Disaster Management Machinery is in full operational
mode to face the impending disaster. All
preparedness action should have been completed by
this time. MHA would be closely monitoring steps
taken by the concerned State Governments regarding
evacuation and relief activities like food, sanitation
etc.
This phase is fit to be classified as “Great Danger” and
all warning messages issued to MHA Control Room
are required to be forwarded to senior officials of the
PMO.
10.2.6. Port Warnings
Port warnings are issued by ACWCs and CWCs at different locations along Indian coast. By definition and order of
priority the port warnings gives risk level in an increasing order. It is easy to decode and to use them in an effective
way.
DC1 and DW2 – Indicative of a depression or cyclone at a distance in sea without any immediate weather over the
indicated port
LC3 and LW4 -- Indicative of a depression or cyclone at a distance in sea with likely squally weather over the indicated
port
246
D5, D6, D7 -- Presence of a cyclone that is likely to affect the port in the increasing order of number
GD8, GD9, GD10 -- Presence of a severe cyclone and above that is likely to affect the port in the increasing order of
number
NUMBER XI – Communication with the forecasting office is lost for any reason but bad weather is expected.
(Irrelevant in the present communication scenario)
It can surely be decided that DC1 and DW2 indicate no bad weathersituation, LC3 and LW4 indicate an alert situation,
D5, D6, D7 indicate an alarm situationand GD8, GD9, GD10 indicate a higher alarm situation.
10.2.7. Fishermen warning
Fishermen warnings are issued by Cyclone Warning Centres based on two criteria.
a) In the presence of low pressure systems below the intensity of depression on in the case of strong Monsoon
conditions or when squally weather is expected with the wind speed more than 45 kmph is expected fishermen are
advised not to venture into the sea.
b) High Wave /Swell criterion: If the high waves/ swell waves (wave /swell wave / with significant wave height of 4.0m
or more corresponding to very rough sea conditions) are forecast by INCOIS, then fishermen are advised not to
venture into the sea.
Fishermen warnings are issued with a validity period of five days.
10.3. Multi hazard Warning System
Figure 10.2. Multi hazard Warning System flow chart
The flow chart showing different action of various offices/agencies is shown in Fig. 8.2
247
10.3.1. Activity chart of Multi-hazard Warning Centre.
After the Video-conferencing with different forecasting offices of NWFC and SWFCs the Chart is prepared in the
following format based on finalised warning bulletins by various offices.
Four colour codes of various hazardous conditions are generated as shown below
Table 10.6.
Colour coding for hazardous conditions
Level 1 Green No particular awareness required

Level 2 Yellow Potentially dangerous, but not unusual
Level 3 Orange Potentially dangerous and unusual phenomena
Level 4 Red Particularly dangerous and intense meteorological phenomena
(extreme event)
The colour codes for various types of warnings are given in Table 10.6.
Table 10.7.
Actual Hazard Data flow
HAZARD COLOUR CODE WITH EQUIVALENT CONDITIONS TO FULFILL

MESSAGE
Heavy Rainfall/ No heavy rainfall Less than 70 mm/hr
snowfall heavy 64.5-115.5 mm/ 24 hrs
Very heavy 115.6 -204.4 mm/ 24 hrs
Exceptionally heavy Greater than or equal to 204.5 mm/ 24 hrs
No TS No Thunderstorm
Light TS Thunderstorms with maximum surface wind
speed less than 40 kmph (In gusts)
Thunder Moderate TS Thunderstorms with maximum surface wind
storm/squall/ speed 41 – 61 kmph (In gusts /
hailstorm squall).
Severe TS Thunderstorms with maximum surface wind
speed 62 -87 kmph (In gusts/ squall).
Very Severe TS Thunderstorms with or without rain with
maximum surface wind speed greater than 88
kmph (in gusts/ squall).
Hailstorm Severe thunderstorm with hail
Duststorm No dust storm No dust storm
Light dust storm If the wind speed is up to 40 kmph and visibility
is less than 1,000 metres but more than 500
meters
Moderate dust storm: If the wind speed is up to 40 kmph and visibility
is less than 1,000 metres but more than 500
meters
Severe dust storm If surface wind speed (in gusts) is between 62 -
87 kmph (In gusts) and visibility is less than 200
metres
Very Severe dust storm If surface wind speed (in gusts) exceeds 88
kmph (In gusts) and visibility is less than 200
metres
248
Normal Temperatures No Heat wave conditions

Hot day conditions Hot day conditions and no Heat wave
Heat Wave
Heat wave Heat wave conditions
Severe Heat Wave Severe Heat Wave conditions
Normal Temperatures No Cold wave conditions
Cold day conditions Cold day conditions and no Cold wave
Cold Wave
Cold wave Cold wave conditions
Severe Cold Wave Severe Cold Wave conditions
DC1 and DW2 Alert type message
LC3 and LW4 Warning Message No danger
Port Warning D5, D6, D7 Danger message – danger expected
GD8, GD9, GD10 Great Danger Message – Severe damages
expected
No warning Wind speed below45 kmph
Alert Wind speed 45 to 50 kmph
Fishermen Warning Wind speed 50 kmph sea rough
Warning Warning Wind speed 63 kmph sea rough to very rough
No Fog Visibility greater than 1000 metres

Shallow Fog Visibility 500 -- 1000 metres
Fog (Visibility)
Moderate Fog Visibility 200 -- 500 metres
Dense Fog Visibility less than 200 metres
No heavy rainfall Less than 60 mm/ 24 hrs
Heavy Heavy 64.5-115.5 mm/ 24 hrs
Rains Very heavy 115.6 -204.4 mm/ 24 hrs
C Extremely heavy Greater than or equal to 204.5 mm/ 24 hrs
Y
No Warning Less than 0.5 metres
C
L Storm Low level Upto 1 meter
O Surge Moderate level 1 to 2.5 metres
N High level More than 2.5 metres
E Squally winds Less than 62 kmph
Gale Winds 62-89 kmph
Gale Winds
Moderate Gales 90-119 kmph
Very high Gales 120 kmph and more
The national level and state level pictorial presentation of multi-hazard warnings are shown in Fig. 10.3 and 10.4
respectively.
249
Figure 10.3. National Level Pictorial presentation of Multi-Hazard System
Figure 10.4. District level Pictorial presentation of Multi-Hazard System
10.3.2. Text Message of Multi- Hazard Warnings
From the warnings received from different forecasting centres a small text message will also generated and sent with
the visual map so that it will help in decoding the map quickly. The automated programme will be designed in such a
way that the text message will also be generated automatically. Individual State maps with districts will be prepared
and supplied to State MCs as required.
250
10.3.3. Timeliness of Map generation and transmission
Though the Multi-hazard warning system needs continuous updating as and when a new warning situation arises, this
should be automated completely. Thus no manual intervention is required in generation, display and transmission of
the end product.
However in view of the experimental run of the system one Hazard map may be manually generated at any
convenient time after the forecasts conferences and inputs from different hazard groups are received. From that time
onwards the PWS group will monitor for new inputs and update the Multi-hazard map continuously without any set
time frame.
10.3.4. Dissemination System
Forecast and warnings are disseminated to various users through telephone, fax, email SMS, Global Telecom System
(GTS), WMO Information System (WIS), All India Radio, FM & community radio, Television, Social media (facebook,
whatsapp, twitter) and other print & electronic media, press conference & press release. These warnings/advisories
are also put on the various websites of IMD such as (www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in and www.mausam.imd.gov.in).
Another means to transmit warning is IVRS (Interactive Voice Response system). It is functioning with effect from July
2000.The requests for weather information and forecasts from the general public are automatically answered by this
system. One can access current weather and forecast for major Indian cities by dialling Toll-free number 1800 220
161. Presently a centralized IVRS is catering the weather information of major cities.
IMD has taken various initiatives in recent years for improvement in the dissemination of weather forecast and
warning services based on latest tools and technologies. Since 2009, IMD has started SMS based weather and alert
dissemination system through AMSS (Transmet) at RTH New Delhi. To further enhance this initiative, India
Meteorological Department has taken the leverage of Digital India Programme to utilize “Mobile Seva” of Department
of Electronics and Information Technology (DeitY), Ministry of Communication and Information Technology; Govt. of
India and Quick SMS of NIC for SMS based Warnings /Weather information dissemination for a wide range of users.
The SMS based cyclone alert to the registered users including public was inaugurated on 25th December 2014. Global
Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) message is also put in RSMC, New Delhi website (URL:
www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in) as well as transmitted through GTS. The WIS Portal–GISC New Delhi is another system
for cyclone warning dissemination. The user can access the warning messages through the -URL:
http://www.wis.imd.gov.in. IMD has also started issuing of NAVTEX bulletins for the coastal region along east as well
as the west coast of India for the operation of lightships and fishermen from 30th March 2016.
Nine IMD offices viz, the Regional Meteorological Centres at Chennai, Guwahati, Kolkata, Mumbai and Nagpur, CRS
Pune, MTI Pune and M.C. Bhubaneswar have been linked with National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC) at IMD
Head quarters, Delhi through dedicated video conferencing systems for daily forecast discussion.
In addition, the SMS-based alert/warnings are issued to registered farmers through Kisan portal of Govt. of India
(Ministry of Agriculture) and to registered fishermen through Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Sciences
(INCOIS), Hyderabad also.
IMD is working in collaboration with ISRO for disseminating the SMS to fishermen in deep seas through GAMES and
NAVIC systems. IMD has collaborated with NEGD, Department Of Electronics And Information Technology for
disseminating warning via UMANG mobile app. IMD has also established new cyclone warning centre at
Thiruvananthapuram w.e.f. October, 2018 to improve dissemination of warnings and advisories for the states of
Kerala, Karnataka and Lakshadweep Islands.
IMD is also working with WMO and NDMA for disseminating the warning through CAP (Common Alerting Protocol).
10.3.4.1. Dissemination and Information Flow of CAP Message using NDMA tool
C-DOT under an MoU with NDMA has been mandated to develop and field a pilot project for Early warning system for
natural disasters based on Common Alerting Platform (ITU-T standard x.1303) for the state of Tamil Nadu). In the Pilot
Project, C-DOT will integrate concerned stakeholders (IMD, CWC, TN-SDMA and TSPs) on a web-based platform in
order to disseminate location specific early warning messages in Tamil Nadu Diagrammatic flow of information has
been depicted in Figure below.
251
A sample CAP message is given in Annexure.
Figure 10.5. Schematic diagram of Flow of information in the CAP tool developed for Tamil Nadu
10.4. Cyclone warning Dissemination
IMD has taken various initiatives in recent years for improvement in the dissemination of weather forecast and
warning services based on latest tools and technologies.
• Cyclone warnings are disseminated to various users through telephone, fax, email, SMS, Global Telecom System
(GTS), WMO Information System (WIS), All India Radio, FM & community radio, Television and other print &
electronic media, press conference, press release and Social media like Facebook, Twitter etc, FM radio &
Community radio. These warnings/advisories are also put on the website (www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in and
www.mausam.imd.gov.in) of IMD.
• Another means to transmit warning is IVRS (Interactive Voice Response system). It is functioning with effect from
July 2000. The requests for weather information and forecasts from the general public are automatically
answered by this system. One can access current weather and forecast for major Indian cities by dialling Toll-
free number 1800 180 1717. Presently, a centralized IVRS is catering the weather information of major cities.
• Since 2009, IMD has started SMS based weather and alert dissemination system through AMSS (Transmet) at
RTH New Delhi.
• To further enhance this initiative, IMD has taken the leverage of Digital India Programme to utilize “Mobile Seva”
of Department of Electronics and Information Technology (DeitY), Ministry of Communication and Information
Technology; Govt. of India for SMS based Warnings /Weather information dissemination for a wide range of
th
users. The SMS based cyclone alert to the registered users including public was inaugurated on 25 December,
2014.
• General Public can register in RSMC website free of cost for getting SMS on cyclone warnings. The SMS-based
alert/warnings are issued to registered farmers through Kisan Portal of Govt. of India (Ministry of Agriculture)
and to registered fishermen through Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Sciences (INCOIS), Hyderabad
also.
252
• Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) message is also put in RSMC, New Delhi website (URL:
www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in) as well as transmitted through GTS. The WIS Portal –GISC New Delhi is another
system for cyclone warning dissemination. The user can access the warning messages through the URL:
http://www.wis.imd.gov.in. IMD has also started issuing of NAVTEX bulletins for the coastal region along east as
well as the west coast of India for the operation of lightships and fishermen from 30th March 2015.
• The cyclone warnings are also disseminated through Tsunami warning dissemination system of INCOIS and
Potential Fisheries Zone (PFZ) Bulletins of INCOIS to registered Fishermen.
• The Cyclone warnings are also communicated registered farmers along the coastal regions through the Kisan
portal of Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. Of India.
There is separate SOP for Cyclone related warnings and their dissemination.
Annexure-I
Sample CAP Message-
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" ?>
<?xml-stylesheet type="text/xsl" href="https://cap-sources.s3.amazonaws.com/in-imd-en/alert-style.xsl" ?>
<cap:alertxmlns:cap="urn:oasis:names:tc:emergency:cap:1.2" >
<cap:identifier>urn:oid:2.49.0.1.356.0.2019.12.27.8.19.38</cap:identifier>
<cap:sender>nowcastnwfc@gmail.com</cap:sender>
<cap:sent>2019-12-27T08:19:38-00:00</cap:sent>
<cap:status>Test</cap:status>
<cap:msgType>Alert</cap:msgType>
<cap:scope>Public</cap:scope>
<cap:info>
<cap:language>en</cap:language>
<cap:category>Met</cap:category>
<cap:event>Moderate Thunderstorm</cap:event>
<cap:responseType>Prepare</cap:responseType>
<cap:urgency>Expected</cap:urgency>
<cap:severity>Moderate</cap:severity>
<cap:certainty>Likely</cap:certainty>
<cap:onset>2019-10-31T18:00:00+05:30</cap:onset>
<cap:expires>2019-10-31T18:30:00+05:30</cap:expires>
<cap:senderName>NOWCAST DIVISION</cap:senderName>
<cap:headline>Moderate Thunderstorm warning</cap:headline>
<cap:description>LIGHTNING DETECTION AND IDENTIFICATION REPORT FOR Thu Oct 31 17:17:53 IST 2019 ,Akola
District 7,Amravati District 3, Aurangabad District 37,Buldhana District 19,Chandrapur District 117,Jalgaon District
11,Sindhudurg District 3,Wardha District 1,Yavatmal District 61,Thunderstorm with Gusty winds with wind speed of
40-50 kmph are likely over Akola, Amravati districts during the next three hours.</cap:description>
<cap:instruction>People are advised to keep a watch on the weather for worsening conditions and be ready to move
to safer places accordingly.</cap:instruction>
<cap:web>http://srf.tropmet.res.in/srf/ts_prediction_system/index.php</cap:web>
<cap:contact>nowcastnwfc@gmail.com,011-43824241</cap:contact>
<cap:area>
<cap:areaDesc>Akola, Amravati</cap:areaDesc>
<cap:polygon>20.38583,77.42065 20.79720,78.16772 21.16648,78.14575 21.18697,77.67334 21.02298,77.29980
20.61222,77.06909 20.38583,77.42065</cap:polygon>
</cap:area>
</cap:info>
</cap:alert>
253
Chapter 11
Urban Meteorological Services

11.1. Introduction
An exponential growth of urban populations has become a driving force for human development, particularly in
developing countries. Although, crowded cities are centres of creativity and economic progress, but face serious
challenges on account of polluted air, extreme weather conditions, flooding and other hazards. Increasingly dense,
complex and interdependent urban fabrics are rendering cities vulnerable: a single extreme event can lead to a
widespread breakdown of a city's infrastructure often through cascading downstream or “domino” effects and even
loss of human life in large numbers.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recognizes that rapid urbanization necessitates on new types of
services which make the best use of science and technology and considers the challenge of delivering these as one of
the main priorities for the meteorological community. Urban Services, in the traditional sense are related to
transportation, housing, water management, waste management, public health, electricity, snow clearance, etc. In
rapidly changing urban complexion, there is need of Urban Integrated Services consisting observational data and
prediction for weather, climate, hydrology and air quality infrastructure to support traditional (and new) urban
services in art of state manner.
Urban Integrated Services typically shouldinclude:
(i) Observation and Monitoring;

(ii) Data, databases and data sharing;
(iii) Modelling and prediction capability;
(iv) Tailored urban service applications;
(v) Decision Support Systems to support decision-making that includes human behaviour/response considerations
(vi) Products, service delivery, communications and outreach;
(vii) Evaluation, assessment, societal impacts;
(viii) Research and Development.
The main elements and subsystems should integrate:
• Weather (especially high impact weather for now cast and short range forecast at the urban and suburban
scales, in all conditions, and taking into account the urban influences)
• Climate (urban climate, climate extremes, sector specific climate indices, climate projections, climate risk
management and adaptation).
• Hydrology and water related hazards (flash river floods, heavy precipitation, river water stage, inundation
areas, storm tides, sea level rise, urban hydrology)
• Air Quality (urban air quality and other larger scale hazards: dust storms, wildfires, smog etc.)
Urban Integrated Services systems need to consider fine-scale urban observations for assimilation and model
initialization, urban canopy models, urban vegetation, land use and land cover (to assess both exposure, vulnerability
but also soil permeability, which might affect the hazard in terms of lag time) ensemble prediction, quantification of
uncertainties and processes requiring multi-disciplinary approach.
With increasing demand, IMD has already taken Urban Meteorological Services as one of its priority projects to
provide location-specific severe weather warnings for 10 major cities in the country and 110 capital cities (listed in
Annexure 1) with the advent of dense observational networks, high-resolution forecasts, multi-hazard early warning
systems and climate services promoting the Sustainable Development Goals.However, there are other urban centres
with large populations which are tending to become megacities. In view of the expansion of Indian cities, there is an
imperative need for strengthening of infrastructure for megacity oriented weather services.
254
11.2. Current status of observational network
IMD recently introduced a system of urban city forecast in mega, capital and other smart cities facilitated with the
synoptic observational network, Automatic weather stations (AWS), Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG), C&S-band Doppler
Weather Radar, vertical wind profilers, radiosonde etc. The list of 110 stations for location specific forecast in Capital
cities selected under the urban meteorology. Quantification and specific timing of the weather events are generally
not provided. The forecasts for imminent severe weather events (eg. Thunderstorms/squalls) are also issued by
certain offices with existing DWR observing facility. Current weather information for representative observatories in
the cities are also updated hourly/three hourly basis in the web-site.
1. Update cycle : Twice a day in IMD website and once in print media.
2. Validity period : Three days
3. Forecast Parameters : Maximum temperature, Minimum temperature, state of the sky and weather
phenomena.
4. Users : Mostly civic authorities.
The details of the IMD observational network are as follows :
1400 27 Doppler 706Autom

Automatic Weather RADAR atic
Rain Guages Weather
4500 Station
DRMS
264 Agro met 558 Surface
Observatory observatories
255
Synoptic
S. No. City DWR ARG AWS
stations
1. Mumbai 1 (S – Band) NA 2 2
2. Delhi 1 (C – Band) 1 5 10
3. Bangalore NA 3 3 1
4. Kolkata 1 (S – Band) 1 3 1
5. Chennai 1 (S – Band) 2 2 4
6. Hyderabad 1 (S – Band) 5 1 2
7. Ahmedabad NA 6 1 NA
8. Pune NA 13 4 5
9. Nagpur 1 (S – Band) 2 2 1
10. Guwahati 1 (S – Band) 1 1 1
11.3. Weather information deliverables for urban cities
Current weather and forecast weather at different spatial and spatio-temporal scales respectively are the deliverables
for urban cities as depicted in Fig. 1.
Current
Weather
Information
Medium
Nowcasting
Range
Products
Forecast City
Forecast
Office
Very Short
Short Range
Range
Forecast
Forecast
Figure 1. Deliverables for urban cities
256
11.3.1. Current weather information
Information required at important locations in the city (preferably every 5-10 km) to be updated in 15 minutes to1
hour, while rainfall forecast is updated every 15 minutes, the parameter line temperature updated every one hour
with sufficient requirement of monitoring.
11.3.2. Weather forecasts
11.3.2.1. Now cast (for next 6 hours and updated every 15 minutes as and when triggered by observing system)
(i) Information about weather phenomena–rainfall/snowfall,dust storm, thunderstorm, hailstorm/sleet, lightning,

squalls, wind gust, fog, extreme temperatures, gale force winds, cyclones and tsunami / storm surge.
(ii) Forecasts will be issued for specific events (e.g. sports events, national functions, festivals etc.) and locations in
the cityfor 24 hour forecast from high resolution model and 48 hour outlook from high resolution global model.
(iii) IMD issues thunderstorm now cast for around 875 stations and 48 hour ahead thunderstorm forecast guidance
for the country as a whole.
11.3.2.2. Very short range (for next 12 hours and updated every 3 hours)
(i) Three hourly temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, heat indices, wind.
(ii) Chill and rainfall in quantitative terms, cloudiness, fog and occurrence of any weather events with probable time
period.
(iii) Forecasts will be issued for specific events (e.g. sports events, national functions, festivals etc.) and locations in
the city.
11.3.2.3. Short range (for next 72 hours starting from 12 hours and updated twice a day)
(i) Maximum and minimum temperatures and relative humidity, heat indices, wind chill and rainfall in quantitative
terms, cloudiness, severe weather phenomenon like cyclones, heavy rains, thundershower, cold and heat waves
and occurrence of any weather events with probable time period.
(ii) Forecasts will cover different sub-regions/ district in the city.
th th
11.3.2.4. Medium range (4 day – 7 day updated twice a day)
(i) Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS-SL) for ensemble forecasts in the medium range time scale. The GEFS-
SL at semi-Lagrangian resolution T-1534 in horizontal resolution (~12.5 km) with 64 hybrid sigma-pressure layers
was made operational in June, 2018.
(ii) Maximum and minimum temperatures and relative humidity, heat/cold wave and rainfall, cloudiness and
occurrence of weather events.
(iii) Forecast will be issued for the city as a whole.
11.3.2.5. Extended Range forecastformonthly outlook updated weekly
(i) Four week forecasts (~50 km) from CFS and GFS based multi-model ensemble forecast system is issued weekly
once over Indian region.
(ii) The Maximum and minimum temperatures (bias corrected), heat/cold wave, wind rainfall and cyclogenesis over
the region.
11.3.2.6. Long Range weather forecastfor a season
Long Range Forecasting may range from a month to a seasonal forecast which is elaborately described in Chapter…..
11.4. Inputs needed for urban weather forecast
The inputs needed for urbanweatherforecasting services are shown in Fig. 2.

257
O
NWP CENTRE
B
Now cast All Global / Meso- High-res Model Output
S Products including Meteogram/
Scale Model EPSgram
E Forecasts including
R
N
SWFC / RWFC
G
S
CLIMATE
T
E
DATABASE
M
Figure 2. Inputs needed for urban weather forecast
11.4.1. Observing system
The observing system available for issuing urban weather forecast is given below:
i) A network of AWS/ARG at every 4 km capable of providing observations.

ii) Surface observation /Metar–1 to 3 hour interval
iii) Upper-air observation
a. Vertical Wind Profiler- 2-3 depending upon main approach path of weather phenomena (continuous
observations)
b. Radiometer – 1-2 (continuous observations)
c. GPS sonde – twice a day
iv) X, C&S-band Doppler Weather Radar –10 minutes volume scan image and prognosis
v) Satellite Observation from INSAT-3D &INSAT-3DR–sector image at 30 minutes interval
vi) Other international satellites of NOAA, EUMETSAT, HIMAWARI and FY- series.
vii) Lightning detection network
viii) At some locations AWS stations should be attached with video camera
ix) Thermodynamic indices
11.4.2. NWP Products
11.4.2.1. Global Model analysis and forecasts – updated 4 times daily for next 7 days at 1 hour for day 1 and 3 hour
intervalthereafter (from HQs)
Forecast products of following parameters will be provided by the model
i. Rainfall
ii. Wind flow pattern at surface (10 m) and different upper-air levels
iii. Temperature and geopotential height at different upper-air levels
258
iv. Surface temperature and relative humidity (2 m)

v. Mean sea level pressure
vi. Different indices and diagnostic parameters (stability indices, CAPE, CIN, equivalent potential temperature,
relative vorticity, divergence, potential vorticity, moisture convergence and shear etc.)
vii. Derived parameters including dynamic and thermodynamic indices
11.4.2.2. Meso-scale Model analysis and forecasts – updated four times daily for next 3 days at 1 hour interval
(from HQs)
Forecast products of following parameters will be provided by the model
i. Rainfall
iii. Temperature and geo-potential height at different upper-air levels
iv. Surface temperature and relative humidity (2 m)
v. Mean sea level pressure
vi. Different indices and diagnostic parameters (stability indices, CAPE, CIN, equivalent potential temperature,
relative vorticity, divergence, potential vorticity, moisture convergence and shear etc.)
vii. Forecast radar reflectivity
viii. Cloud Top Temperature
11.4.2.3. High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) products - updated hourly basis for next 24 hours at 1 hour interval
(from HQs)
Hourly forecast animated products over selected regions of India will be issued for next 24 hours.
i. Rainfall
iii. Surface temperature and relative humidity (2 m)
iv. Forecast radar reflectivity
v. Storm relative helicity
11.4.2.4. Now cast Products
i. Location specific temperatures (hourly for next 6 hours)

ii. Location specific humidity (hourly for next 6 hours)
iii. Location specific wind speed/direction (hourly for next 6 hours)
iv. Location specific heat index (hourly for next 6 hours)
v. Location specific visibility (hourly for next 6 hours)
vi. Location specific rainfall quantity (hourly for next 3 hours)
vii. Location specific severe weather phenomena (thunderstorm, dust storm, hail, gusts, squall, lightning etc.
hourly for next 3 hours)
Detailed list of NWP products along with their availability and updating frequency are given in SOP of NWP model.
11.4.3. Climate Database
Generated locally and through CLYSIS will be made available to forecasting centre.
i) Normal temperature, rainfall, wind, humidity

ii) Extreme temperature, rainfall, wind (thunderstorm/squall)
iii) Anomaly of the day
iv) Wind rose diagram
259
11.5. SOP of Urban weather forecast
Continuous
monitoring
Current weather
information
Analysis every 10
minutes
Observation/Forecast
SOP of Urban city
Archival and
forecast
Retrieval
Nowcast
Weather Forecast
Very-short range,
Short range, Medium
range, Extend
Figure 3. Flowchart of the SOP of City Forecast
11.5.1. Impact Based Forecast
Refer SOP of Impact Based Forecasting.
11.6. Event wise urban meteorology services
11.6.1. Heavy rainfall
An urban Meteorological service includes impact based warnings for local heavy rainfall events which causes flash
flood. The present Urbanmet services of IMD functional at most cities in India can be classified as:
i) 6-h local forecast updates issued routinely at sub-City level that includes temp and rainfall observations.
ii) Sub-city level now cast at least at each 3-h gap during potential severe weather development
iii) Impact Based Forecast for City heavy rainfall forecast.
However, NWP models are capable to provide indications and likelihood over a city at 2-5 Days in advance
especially in case it is associated with some well-defined monsoon systems.For detailed SOP, please refer section
no.……
(iv) City basedthresholds and topography will be considered for determining heavy rainfall impact for different parts
of city.
11.6.2. Heat wave and cold wave
The heat waves, periods of sustained high temperature and high humidity, have long been recognized as a significant
weather hazard. There is lot of casualties every year due to heat and cold wave conditions over India. Though, IMD
issuing heat wave and cold wave warning during their respective seasons. For detailed SOP, please refer section
no.……
260
Due to urban heat island effect, the temperature at the middle of the city will be different from the sub-urban
area.Therefore, while issuing heat wave warning for urban areas heat island effect will be taken into consideration
and area specific warning will be provided. It will be integrated with city specific heat action plan.
11.6.3. Thunderstorm and lightening
In view of the increased public awareness of the high impact of thunderstorms and its influence on social, cultural,
commercial, health, defence, transport etc., it is felt that there is a requirement of a well laid out system/methodology
for monitoring, prediction and warning of thunderstorm. India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides a uniform
monitoring and forecasting/warning services of above mentioned weather event. In addition to this, the thunderstorm
warning will help in aviation, disaster management and new concept of mega-city forecasting and now casting.The
occurrence of lightning in India is being monitored with the help of lightning detectorsestablished by Ministry of Earth
Sciences and Indian Air Force. Currently, there are 203 No.of lightning detectors in the country (46 Indian Institute of
Tropical Meteorology and 157Indian Air Force). The area of lightning during preceding 10 min., 20 min. and 30 min.
aresuperimposed with satellite and radar imageries. It helps in proper monitoring of thunderstormand lightning
activities and now casting of such events. The lightening detectors as warning will be visualized in a GIS platform for
the urban areas. For detailed SOP, please refer section no.…….
The lightning detection and warning will be visualized on GIS platform for the urban region.
11.6.4. Fog
The presence of dense and extended period fog in the northern regions of India is one of the major weather hazards,
impacting aviation, road transportation, economy and public life in the world’s most densely populated region.
Maximum fog occurrence over Northwest India is about 48 days (visibility < 1000m) per year and occurs mostly during
the December-February time period. Recent studies on fog in India during the past 10-15 years have prompted
significant socio-economic concern due to an increase in frequency, persistence, and intensity of fog occurrence over
the northern parts of the country. Winter Fog Experiment (WIFEX) are to develop better now-casting (next 6 hours)
and forecasting of winter fog on various time and spatial scales and help reduce its adverse impact on aviation,
transportation and economy, and loss of human life due to accidents. Local conditions will be considered while issuing
the fog forecast for different parts of the city.For detailed SOP, please refer section no.……
11.6.5. Cyclone
For detailed SOP, please refer section no.……
11.6.6. Integrated Flood Warning System (I-FLOWS)
I-FLOWS is an innovative approach to flood risk mapping in a disaster risk reduction framework, leveraging weather
models, field data using numerical flood modeling and Web GIS technologies. It is a framework to map spatially
explicit flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability, and to merge the data into a flood risk index (FRI). The major
objectives of this system are to develop operational decision support system for flood risk assessment and
management for the State Government. Conceptual Framework of I-FLOWS is as follows:
261
I-FLOWS incorporates forecast data from the following models from IMD, NCMRF
• NCMRWF : 10 days forecast, 19*13 km spatial resolution

• GFS : 11 days forecast, 14 km spatial resolution
• WRF : 3 days forecast, 9 km spatial resolution
IMD issues advisories using the following colour codes, and the colour are assigned to a given weather forecast
situation under the 5-day forecast scheme, following matrix, giving thrust on the probability of occurrence of the
event as well as its impact assessment. The probability of occurrence for D1 to D5 may be arrived based on the
ensemble probabilistic forecasts provided by NCMRWF/IMD/IITM and various Global Centers, which are as follows:
S. No. Terminology Warning Advisories by IMD

1. No Warning No Warning (No Action)
2. Heavy Rainfall Watch (Be Updated)
3. Very Heavy Rainfall Alert (Be Prepared)
4. Extremely Heavy Rainfall Warning (Take Action)
IMD has a SOP for Weather Forecasting and Heavy Rainfall Warnings as a part of their Megacity Forecasting System.
This includes :
• Forecast for spatial distribution of rainfall

• Intensity of Rainfall (in 24 hours)
• Probability Forecasts of Rainfall or Weather
• Temporal distribution of rainfall
Heavy Rainfall Warnings are issued based on colour codes by IMD. HRW bulletins are passed on to Central Govt., State
Govt. authorities, Doordarshan/AIR/press and other users by SWFC/RWFC.
262
I-FLOWS will supplement the qualitative forecast given by IMD and generated quantitative forecast on likely
inundation and water levels and the work flow will be as given below:
i. HRF from the weather models (NCMRWF, IMD) will be picked up and along with discharge.
ii. from upstream (if any) flood inundation models will be run (72 hours in advance).
iii. The models will continue to run based on the probability of occurrence for D1 to D5 as arrived at, based on the
ensemble probabilistic forecasts provided by NCMRWF/IMD/IITM and various Global Centres.
iv. The inundation/vulnerability and risk maps will be generated 24 hours in advance based on model predictions.
v. Nowcast inundation maps will be generated 3-6 hours in advance and this will continue in near real-time using
field data.
vi. All maps/data will be made available at IMD as a part of the megacities forecasting programme.
The system is operational in Chennai and Mumbai and needs to be augmented in other Megacities and other cities.
11.7. Stakeholders
The users of forecasts in mega cities are different from those of the general area forecasts. Some of the potential
users are listed below:
i. Civic authorities responsible for maintaining roads, drainage systems and dewatering the stagnation of water.
ii. Disaster managers including fire offices.
iii. Power generation and distribution companies.
iv. Organisers of mega events including sports events, exhibitions, meals, national days’ celebration authorities.
v. Government organisation having large outdoor functions.
vi. Electronic and print media.
vii. General public.
viii. Drinking water and sanitation, labour and welfare, education, transport, communication and tourism, industrial
installation, shopping malls.
11.8 . Post-event Review
i) It is also proposed to carry out thorough survey of certain severe weather events in the city within next 24
hours.
ii) This job requires transport, audio-visual recording aids.
iii) Regular and standard practice to pull together events specific feedbacks from different stake holders.
iv) Collection of detail impact data aftermath of an event.
v) Time-bound borrowed manpower with specified training from RMCs/MCs.
vi) Urban forecasting is proposed to be a part of the RWFC/SWFCs dealing with nowcast, short/medium range
forecast.
11.9. Conclusion
Successful implementation of weather and climate services in Mega cities is dependent upon the observational
network, weather forecast, availability of proper and adequate trained manpower at regional stations, IT
infrastructure and effective communication between various agencies for reception /dissemination of data,
information and warnings.
i) Verification and feedback

ii) Documentation
iii) Forecast and warning dissemination
iv) Liaison with civic authorities
263
Annexure I
List of Location Specific Stations for Capital Cities – State and UT
Final Name for

S. No. of Abbreviated Name
Capital Cities Station Nowcast
No. Stations proposed by UMCC
Warning
1. AGARTALA (AGT) 01 Agartala Agartala Agartala
2. AHMEDABAD 10 Ahmedabad Airport AHM-Airport Ahmedabad AP

(AHM) Navrangpura AHM-Navrangpura Navrangpura
Rakhiyal AHM-Rakhiyal Rakhiyal
Chandkheda AHM-Chandkhela Chandkhela
Satellite Area AHM-Satellite Ahm Satellite
AmbliBopal * AHM-ISRO Bopal ISRO Bopal
Raikhad * AHM-Raikhad Raikhad
Pirana * AHM-Pirana Pirana
IIPH, Gandhi nagar * GDN-IIPH Gandhi Ng IIPH
Gift City, Gandhinagar * GDN-Gift City Gift City
3. AIZAWL 02 Aizawl Aizawl Aizawl

Lengpui Lengpui Lengpui
4. AMRAVATI 03 Amravati Amravati Amravati

Vijayawada VJW Vijayawada
Gannavaram Gannavaram Gannavaram
5. BENGALURU (BNG) 04 Bengaluru city BNG-City Bengaluru City

Bengaluru International BNG-Int. Airport Bengaluru BIAL
Airport
Bengaluru HAL Airport BNG-HAL Airport Bengaluru HAL
GKVK BNG-GKVK GKV Kendra
6. BHOPAL (BHP) 03 Airport BHP-Airport Bhopal AP

Arera Hills BHP-Arera Hills Arera Hills
NabiBagh BHP-NabiBagh NabiBagh
7. BHUBANESHWAR 03 Bhubaneshwar Airport BBS-Airport Bhubaneshwar

(BBS) AP
OUAT BBS-OUAT Bhubaneshwar
OUAT
Cuttack BBS-CTK Cuttack
8. CHANDIGARH 04 Chandigarh Airport CHD-Airport Chandigarh AP

(CHD) Chandigarh city CHD-City Chandigarh city
Mohali Mohali Mohali
Panchkula Panchkula Panchkula
9. CHENNAI (MDS) 04 Meenambakkam CHN-Meenambakam Meenambakam

*(CHN) AP
Nungambakkam CHN-Nunambakkam Nungambakkam
Madhavaram CHN-MDVM Madhavaram
Ennore CHN-Ennore Ennore
10. DADRA & NAGAR 01 Dadra Nagar Haveli D&N Haveli Dadra Nagar
HAVELI
264
11. DIU 01 Diu Diu Diu
12. DEHRADUN (DDN) 06 Mokhampur DDN-Mokhampur Mokhampur

Karanpur DDN-Karanpur Karanpur
Jhajhara DDN- Jhajhara Jhajhara
Sahashtradhara DDN- Sahashtradhara Sahashtradhara
Asharori DDN-Asharori Asharori
UCOST DDN-UCOST UCOST
13. GANGTOK (GTK) 02 Gangtok Gangtok Gangtok

Tadong Tadong Tadong
14. GUWAHATI (GHY) 03 Guwahati Airport GHY-Airport Guwahati AP

Dispur Dispur Dispur
Guwahati IIT-GHY IIT Guwahati
15. HYDERABAD (HYD) 05 Rajendra Nagar HYD-Rajendra Nagar Rajendra Nagar

Hayathnagar HYD-HayathNagar HayathNagar
Hakimpet HYD-Hakimpet Hakimpet
ICRISAT-Patancheru HYD- Patancheru Patancheru
Hyderabad HYD Hyderabad*
16. IMPHAL (IMP) 01 Imphal Imphal Imphal
17. ITANAGAR 01 Itanagar Itanagar Itanagar
18. JAIPUR (JPR) 05 AMO Jaipur AMO-JPR Jaipur AP

Vaishali Nagar JPR-Vaishali Vaishali Ng
Transport Nagar JPR-Tpt Nagar Transport Ng
Collectorate Circle JPR-Collectorate Collector Circle
Amer JPR-Amer Amer
19. JAMMU (JMU) 03 Mata Vaishno Devi ji Vaishno Devi Vaishno Devi
Jammu City JMU- City Jammu City
Jammu Airport JMU- Airport Jammu AP
20. KOHIMA (KHM) 02 Kohima Kohima Kohima

Dimapur Dimapur Dimapur
21. KOLKATA (KOL) 04 Alipur KOL-ALP Alipore

Dumdum KOL-DDM Kolkata AP
Salt Lake KOL-Salt Lake Saltlake
Howrah (Uluberia) KOL-Howrah Howrah
22. LADAKH 01 Leh Leh Leh
23. LUCKNOW (LKN) 05 Lucknow Airport LKN-Airport Lucknow AP

Lucknow Hanuman Setu LKN-Hanuman Setu Hanuman Setu
Lucknow Control Room LKN-Control Room Flood Control
Malihabad LKN-Malihabad Malihabad

Mohalnlalganj LKN-MohanLalGanj MohanLalGanj
24. MUMBAI (BNB) 07 Colaba BNB-Colaba Colaba
265
Santacruz BNB-Santacruz Santacruz

Worli BNB-Worli Worli
Powai BNB-Powai Powai
Borivali PNB-Borivali Borivali
Chembur BNB-Chembur Chembur
Mulund BNB-Mulund Mulund
25. NAGPUR (NGP) 02 Sonegaon Airport NGP-Airport Nagpur AP

College of Agriculture NGP-CoA CoA Nagpur
26. NEW DELHI (DEL) 06 Safdarjung SFD Delhi SFD

Palam PLM Delhi PLM AP
Ayanagar Ayanagar Ayanagar
Narela Narela Narela
Ridge Ridge Ridge
Delhi University D.U DU North
Campus
27. PANAJI (PJM) 04 Pernem Pernem Pernem

Mapusa Mapusa Mapusa
Old Goa Old Goa Old Goa
Panjim Panjim Panjim
28. PATNA (PTN) 02 Patna Airport PTN-Airport Patna AP

Patna City PTN-City Patna City
29. PORT BLAIR (PBL) 01 Port Blair Port Blair Port Blair
30. PUDUCHERRY 01 Puducherry Puducherry Puducherry

(PDC)
31. RAIPUR(RPR) 03 Raipur (Lalpur) RPR Lalpur

Mana (AMS Raipur) RPR-Mana Raipur Mana
Labhandi (IGKV) RPR-IGKV Labhandi
32. RANCHI (RNC) 02 Ranchi Ranchi Ranchi

Kanke RNC-Kanke Kanke
33. SHILLONG (SHL) 01 Shillong Shillong Shillong
34. SHIMLA (SML) 02 Shimla City SML- City Shimla City

Shimla Airport SML- Airport Shimla AP
35. SRINAGAR (SRN) 03 Srinagar City SRN-City Srinagar City

Srinagar Airport SRN-Airport Srinagar AP
Dal Lake Dal Lake Dal Lake
36. THIRUVANANTHPU 02 Thiruvananthpuram City TRV-City Thiruvananthapu

RAM (TRV) ram City
Thiruvananthpuram TRV-Airport Thiruvananthapu
Airport ram AP
Total 110
266
Marine Weather Forecasting Services
Chapter 12
12.1. Introduction
Weather services for marinesectoris coordinated by the Marine Services Division (MSD) of NWFC, New Delhi. The
products are generated by MSD as well as Area Cyclone Warning Centres (ACWCs) and Cyclone Warning Centres
(CWCs).The various warning & forecast products and the offices generating them are listed below:
12.2. Global Maritime Distress Safety System (GMDSS)
12.2.1. Under Global Maritime Distress Safety System (GMDSS) scheme, India has been designated as one of the 16
services in the world for issuing Sea area bulletins for broadcast through GMDSS for MET AREA VIII (N), which covers a
large portion of north Indian Ocean. The METAREA VIII N is the area of the Indian Ocean enclosed by lines from the
Indo-Pakistan frontier in 23°45'N 68°E to 12°N 63°E, thence to Cape Gardafui; the east African coast south to the
equator, thence to 95°E, to 6°N, thence north eastwards to the Myanmar/ Thailand frontier in 10°N 98°30'E. As a
routine, two GMDSS bulletins are issued at 0900 and 1800 UTC. During cyclone situations, additional bulletins (up to
4) are issued for GMDSS broadcast. The area of responsibility and designated National Meteorological Services for
issue of weather and sea area bulletins is shown in Fig.11.1.List of stations issuing cyclone warnings for ships on the
high seas is given in table 11.1.
Figure 12.1. Area of responsibility and designated national meteorological services for the issue of
warnings and weather and sea bulletins for the GMDSS
267
Limits of GMDSS METAREA VIII (N)
Table 12.1.
Stations issuing cyclone warnings for ships on the high seas
Call sign of Coastal Area

Station Area covered
covered Radio Station
Bangladesh, Chittagong ASC Bay of Bengal north of 18oN Lat.
o
India, Mumbai Arabian Sea north of Lat. 5 N and east of Long.
o o
60 E excluding the area north of Lat. 20 N and
o
west of Long. 68 E. The eastern boundary of the
Arabian Sea for which these bulletins are issued
o
by Mumbai is Long. 80 E meridian excluding the
Gulf of Mannar.
o
India, Kolkata Bay of Bengal north of Lat. 5 N except the area
between the coastline on the east and the line
o o o
drawn through the points 18 N 94.5 E, 18 N
o o o o o o o o
92 E, 13.5 N 92 E, 13.5 N 94 E, 10 N 94 E, 10 N
o o o
95 E and 5 N 95 E. The western boundary of the
sea area for which bulletins are issued by Kolkata
is up to and inclusive of the Gulf of Mannar (i.e.,
o
77.5 E meridian).
*India, Chennai Bay of Bengal bulletins issued by ACWC Kolkata
are being broadcast through Navtex, Chennai by
Narrow Band Direct Printing ( NBDP)
o
Myanmar, Yangon XYR Bay of Bengal except area west of Long. 92 E and
o
South of 10 N Lat.
Oman (Sultanate of) A4M Muscat Coastal Radio Station
268
**Pakistan, Karachi ASK Arabian Sea north of 20oN, Gulf of Oman and
Persian Gulf.
Sri Lanka, Colombo 4PB Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal
from the equator to 100N between 600E and
950E. The area 50N to 100N between 600E and
950E is an overlap with India.
Thailand, Bangkok HSA Gulf of Thailand, west of southern Thailand.
Strait of Malacca and South China Sea.
HSS
Under the new Marine Meteorological Broadcast system, GMDSS (Global Marine Distress Safety System) of
IMO/WMO, India issues two bulletins at 0900 and 1800 UTC every day for broadcast through INMARSAT SAFETY
SYSTEM. Additional bulletins are broadcast during Cyclone period.
To comply IMO/WMO GMDSS and marine Meteorological Broadcast System Pakistan issues the high seas forecast /
Marine bulletins for met area-IX daily at 0700 UTC for broadcast through INMARSAT SAFEYNET SYSTEM. These
bulletins are issued at 1900 UTC if so required.
12.2.2. Transmission of GMDSS bulletin
In India, the weather forecast and warning bulletin is prepared by Marine Services Division of NWFC, New Delhi and
transmits to Tele-communication Division (Regional Telecommunication Hub (RTH), New Delhi) for further
transmission by e-mail to theLocal Earth Station (LES) of VSNLin Noida. They in turn transmit the message to
INMARSAT.
12.2.3. Contents of GMDSS Bulletin
12.2.4. Frequency of Broadcasts
To start with as a routine only one GMDSS bulletin for METAREA VIII (N) was broadcast at 0900 UTC. From October
1998, a second bulletin is also broadcast at 1800 UTC. During Cyclone situations, additional bulletins (up to 4) are also
being issued for GMDSS broadcast depending on the requirement.
In addition, India is also issuing weather and warning bulletins to the NAVTEX transmitting stations located at Mumbai
and Chennai.
12.2.5. Sample of GMDSS bulletin
GLOBAL MARITIME 222330

269
DATE 22-07-2020 GMDSS BULLETIN-II 221800

FROM:-MARINE FORECAST DIVISION, DGM, NEW DELHI
TO: DGM (ISSD), NEW DELHI

------------------------------------- --------------------------
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 22 JULY 2020.
PART-ISTORM WARNING NIL (.)
PART-II WEATHER SEASONAL(.)
ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I) WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :
1) W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
2) E OF 60 DEG E: NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 75 DEG E (.)
II) WEATHER:
1) E OF 62 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2) REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III) VISIBILITY:
1) E OF 62 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2) REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV) WAVE HEIGHT:2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
I) WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION :
1) W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 15/30 KTS (.)
2) E OF 60 DEG E: NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E(.)
II) WEATHER:
1) E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY:
1) E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
270
IV) WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
I) WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:
1) N OF 20 DEG N : SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2) S OF 20 DEG N TO THE W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 15/30 KTS(.)
3) S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 68 DEG E (.)
II) WEATHER:
1) S OF 17 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2) N OF 17 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY:
1) S OF 17 DEG N TO THE E OF 62 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2) N OF 17 DEG N TO E OF 65 DEG E: 8-6 NM (.)
A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1) N OF 20 DEG N: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
2) S OF 20 DEG N TO THE W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS(.)
3) S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 66 DEG E (.)
II) WEATHER:
1) S OF 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 64 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY:
1) S OF 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 64 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
271
BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80

DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
1) W OF 87 DEG E: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2) REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III) VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM
1) S OF 6 DEG N TO THE E OF 83 DEG E: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2) REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 10/15 TO THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
II) WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
I) WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III) VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV) WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR
I) WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER:
1) W OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2) REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
272
III) VISIBILITY:
1) W OF 87 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

-----------------------------------------------------------------
TOO:-22/2330
RA : Rain, TS : Thundershower, KT : Knot, DEG N : Degree North, BEC: Becoming, W/SW : West/southwest,
12.3. Sea Area Bulletin
12.3.1. Sea area bulletins for Bay of Bengal are issued by ACWC Kolkata and are broadcast by the coastal radio stations
at Kolkata (VWC) and Chennai (VWM) and those for Arabian Sea are issued by ACWC Mumbai and are broadcast by
the coastal radio station at Mumbai (VWB). The area covered by these bulletins which is the area of responsibility
assigned to India by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), is shown in Fig. 11.1.
During undisturbed weather, only two bulletins are issued per day, known as Daily bulletins. In the event of disturbed
weather, a third bulletin known as extra is broadcast, if considered necessary. However, when a depression has
actually formed, the Extra bulletin must be issued. When a cyclonic storm has developed, every attempt should be
made to broadcast three additional bulletins a day. The three additional bulletins are known as Storm bulletins which
together with the three bulletins mentioned earlier, make up a total of six bulletins a day. Storm three, i.e., GASBAG
bulletin (1500 UTC) should be issued on routine basis during cyclone situation. These bulletins are broadcast at fixed
hours according to a schedule. In addition, if any unexpected development of weather warrants urgent
communication to ships, in between scheduled broadcasts, it is broadcast in the form of a special bulletin, called
Hexagon which should be issued immediately after the development is noticed. A code word (which is not for
broadcast) is prefixed to each of the bulletins as a preamble for easy identification by the coastal radio stations on
receipt. These are given in the table 11.2.
Figure 12.3. Area of coverage for issue of coastal weather bulletin and sea area bulletin
273
Table 12.2.
Prefix of Code Word to Sea Area Bulletin for coastal Radio Stations
Code word Type of bulletin Chart on which based (UTC)
ELECTRON Storm-One 0000
AURORA Daily-One 0300
FORMULA Storm-Two 0900
BALLOON Daily-Two 1200
GASBAG Storm-Three 1500
DEW DROP Extra 1800
HEXAGON Special
12.3.2. Format of ‘daily’ bulletin
The formats for the three messages are as follows:

i) Aurora/ Balloon OBS Date…………….. Part One etc……………… Part Two etc. …………..
ii) OBS Date…… Part Three Area Forecast etc. ………..Part Four Analysis etc. ……………
iii) OBS Date …Part Five Ships’ Broadcast etc. …..Part Six 0300 Z synop etc. …
In case of ‘extra’, ‘storm’ and ‘special’ type, bulletin consists of only Part I
Format of Part- I:
When a depression or a cyclonic storm has formed or is expected to form or when gales are expected, Part I of the
bulletin will contain the following items in the order mentioned below:
(1) International Safety Call sign (TTT).

(2) Statement of type of warning (Warning, gale warning, cyclone warning etc.)
(3) Date and time of reference in UTC in the international six figure date-time group.
(4) Type of disturbance (low, when it is expected to intensify into a depression before broadcast of the next bulletin,
depression, monsoon gale, cyclonic storm etc.) with central pressure in hPa in the case of disturbances of
cyclonic storm intensity and above.
(5) Location of disturbance in terms of latitude and longitude.
(6) Direction and speed of movement of disturbance. (The direction may be given in 16 points of compass or in
degrees to the nearest ten; the speed is given in knots.) The departmental practice is to give the direction in
sixteen points of the compass.
(7) Extent of area affected.
(8) Speed and direction of wind in various sections of the affected area. (Wind speeds are given, if possible, for
different distances from the centre, in different sectors of the storm area. Wind speeds are given in knots and
distances in nautical miles.
(9) Further indications, if any
Contents of Part-II:
When there is no warning in the area, Part I in the Daily bulletin contains the words No storm warning. In Part II,
Weather is characterized as Seasonal when there is no synoptic system in the area. However, during the monsoon
season, the strength of the monsoon is described according to corresponding wind speed over the area.
274
Contents of Part III:
Part III contains a forecast of

(i) weather,
(ii) wind and
(iii) visibility.
The period of validity of the forecast should be till the broadcast time of the next routine DailyOne or Two bulletins.
The message should begin with a preamble on the period of validity of the forecast, which will be indicated by the
phrase forecast valid till …… UTC of ………. (date). Forecast of weather (such as rain, rainsqualls, thunderstorms etc.) is
given only for areas over which it is expected to occur. No forecast is included for areas where no weather is expected.
Wind direction is given in eight points of the compass and the wind speed in knots.
Contents of Part-IV
Part IV of the bulletin contains surface analysis encoded in the abridged form of the International Analysis Code for
0 0
marine use (IAC FLEET) and includes essential isobars. ACWC Mumbai issues analysis for the area from Lat. 5 – 25 N
0 0 0 0 0 0
and Long 60 – 80 E and ACWC Kolkata for the area from Lat. 5 – 30 N and Long. 75 – 100 E.
Part V: Data of observations from ships in WMO codes.
Part VI: Data of observations from selected land stations and upper air reports in WMO codes.
12.3.3. Sample Sea Area Bulletinfor Bay of Bengal
Government of India
Regional Meteorological Centre, Alipore, Kolkata - 700027
AURORA OBSERVATION:: Dated - Friday 24/07/2020

From: Area Cyclone Warning
Centre Kolkata (AliporeWeather office) To :: Port Blair Radio , Kolkata Port
Wireless
Part One
No storm warning.
Part Two
A trough lies over Northwest Bay of Bengal. Southwest monsoon moderate over Northeast Bay, Westcentral
275
North Bay Wind Mainly South westerly; 15 to 20

knots.
Visibility Good becoming moderate in

rain.
West Central Bay Wind Mainly south westerly; 15 to 20

knots.

rain.
East Central Bay(WEST OF LONG. 92° EAST) Wind Mainly south westerly; 10 to 15
Knots.

rain.
South East Bay & Andaman Sea(WEST OF Wind Southwest to Westerly; 05 to 10

LONG. 95° EAST) knots.

rain.
South West Bay Wind South to south westerly; 10 to 15

knots.

rain.
TOO:12.30 IST 24/07/2020
Duty Officer ACWC Kolkata 24/07/2020
12.4. Coastal Weather Bulletins
These bulletins are meant for ships plying in coastal waters (within 75 kilometresfrom the shoreline). These are for the
benefit of vessels sailing close to the coast and are issued by the ACWCs Kolkata, Chennai, Mumbai and CWCs
Visakhapatnam, Bhubaneshwar, Thiruvananthapuram and Ahmedabad for the different coastal areas (Fig.11.3) under
their responsibility. These bulletins are broadcast by NAVTEX stations in plain language from the 11 coastal DOT radio
stations – 6 on the west coast, 4 on the east coast and 1 in Andaman and Nicobar Islands. From CWC Ahmedabad,
coastal bulletins are issued twice daily to ACWC Mumbai and Mumbai Radio for both South Gujarat and North Gujarat
coasts. Similarly, CWC Bhubaneswar and Visakhapatnam send the bulletins to ACWC, Kolkata/ Kolkata Radio and
ACWC, Chennai/ Chennai Radio respectively.
12.4.1. Format of Coastal Weather Bulletin
As in the case of sea area bulletins, the coastal weather bulletin is issued twice daily based on 03 & 12 UTC in normal
weather, thrice a day based on 03, 12 & 18 UTC in case of depression/deep depression stage and 5/6 times a day at
00, 03, 06, 09, 12 & 21 UTC in cyclone stage. In undisturbed weather, the two bulletins issued are based on 0300 and
1200 UTC charts and they are called Daily One and Daily Two, corresponding to Aurora and Balloon sea area bulletins.
However, during periods of disturbed weather, when Extra, Storm or Special sea area bulletins are issued,
corresponding coastal bulletins are also to be issued for the particular coast which is likely to be affected,
276
necessitating the hoisting of signals of LC-III and above at the ports. If local weather along a coast is not affected by
the disturbance, additional coastal bulletins for the coast need not be issued. Each bulletin (Daily, Extra, Storm and
Special) contains the following information in the order given below:
(1) Name of coastal Strip

(2) Synoptic system, if any, affecting the weather over the coastal strip and its movement in the case of
depressions and cyclonic storms.
(3) Period of validity of forecast.
(4) Forecast of wind, weather, visibility and state of sea for the coastal strip.
(5) Information about storm warning signals, if any, hoisted at ports on the coastal strip concerned.
(6) Information on storm surges/tidal waves (whenever necessary).
Government of India
Regional Meteorological Centre,Alipore, Kolkata - 700027
DAILY ONE BULLETIN FOR ANDAMAN AND NICOBER COAST: Dated - Friday 24/07/2020
South West monsoon weak over Andaman sea.
Forecast valid from 10:00 UTC to 22:00 UTC of 24/07/2020
WIND: Southwest to Westerly; 05 to 10 knots.
WEATHER: Rain or thundershower very likely to occur at many places.
VISIBILITY: 08 to 06 reducing to 04 km in rain.
SEA CONDITION: Smooth.
PORT WARNING: Nil.
TOO :12:30 IST 24/07/2020 Duty Officer
Area Cyclone
Warning Centre,
Kolkata
24/07/2020
277
DAILY ONE BULLETIN FOR WEST BENGAL COAST:: Dated - Friday 24/07/2020
A trough lies over Northwest Bay of Bengal.
Forecast valid from 10:00 UTC to 22:00 UTC of 24/07/2020
WIND: Mainly south westerly; 15 to 20 knots.
WEATHER: Rain or thundershowers very likely to occur at most places with heavy rain at
one or two places.
VISIBILITY: 08 to 06 reducing to 04 km in rain.
SEA CONDITION: Slight to Moderate .
PORT WARNING: Nil.
TOO:12:30 IST 24/07/2020

Duty Officer
Area Cyclone Warning Centre, Kolkata 24/07/2020
12.5. Fleet forecast for Indian Navy
Since Naval ships normally do not keep watch on commercial W/T wavelengths andhence do not listen to the
broadcasts from the coastal radio stations, separate weatherbulletins for broadcast to the ships of the Indian Navy are
issued to the Naval W/T stations.The bulletins that are issued exclusively for broadcast to Indian Naval ships are called
the Fleet Forecasts.They are issued twice daily, corresponding to Aurora and Balloonsea area bulletins. The offices
which issue the Fleet forecasts and their areas of responsibility are shown in Fig. 12.4 and Table 12.3.
Figure 12.4. Map showing areas for fleet forecast issued by IMD
278
Table 12.3.
Area of responsibility for fleet forecast
S. No. Office of issue Area of responsibility Sub-areas
1. ACWC Mumbai Arabian Sea to the north of Lat. B 00, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40,
o o
5 N and East of Long.60 E, Gulf 55 & E 00, 05
of Oman and Persian Gulf
2. ACWC Kolkata Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea C 65, 70, 75, 80, 85 E10
o
to the north of Lat. 5 N and West half of E 15.
o
3. Marine Division Indian Ocean between Lat.5 N E 20, 25, 30, 35, 40,45, 50,
o o
(NWFC) New Delhi and 10 S and Long.60 E and 55, 60, 65, 70,75.
o
100 E
12.5.1. Contents of Fleet Forecast
The Fleet Forecast is in plain language and contains a brief general inference for the area including warnings. In the
case of Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, the inference will confirm to the Aurora and Balloon bulletins issued by ACWCs
Mumbai and Kolkata. The forecast covers surface wind, visibility and state of sea and an outlook for the next 12 hours.
Fixed times of origin are given to the Fleet Forecast messages – 0800 UTC in the case of day bulletin and 1700 UTC in
the case of the night bulletin. These Fleet forecasts are broadcast by Naval W/T station, Mumbai, during weather
broadcast periods commencing from 0930 UTC and 1830 UTC respectively. Fleet Forecast messages should be brief
with the view that the requirements of ships at sea are principally wind (direction and speed) and visibility and hence
the area forecasts must contain only these two elements and their variations. The central pressure is given from Storm
stage upwards. The two daily forecasts are valid for 12 hours from 1000 UTC and 2200 UTC respectively. Outlook for
next 12 hours in clear terms from the termination of the forecast period should be appended to both day and night
bulletins as a routine. When weather conditions are reasonably stable, the evening forecast may be abbreviated with
reference to the previous morning forecast.
12.5.2. Mode of Transmission of Fleet Forecast to Naval W/T Mumbai
ACWC Kolkata and MSD, New Delhisend their Fleet Forecasts to ACWCMumbai through Departmental
telecommunication channels and also through e-mails. These Fleet Forecasts together with the one issued by ACWC
Mumbai are transmitted to Naval W/T Station, Mumbai, through the Naval Met.Office, Mumbai.
279
12.6. Warnings to Ports
12.6.1. Port warnings are issued by Cyclone Warning Division in New Delhi in association with ACWCs and CWCs at
different locations along Indian coast.
12.6.2. The office of responsibility is given below:
(1) ACWC Kolkata: West Bengal Coast, Andaman and Nicobar Islands
(2) ACWC Chennai: Tamil Nadu coast
(3) ACWC Mumbai: Maharashtra coast and Goa coast
(4) CWC Bhubaneswar: Odisha Coast
(5) CWC Visakhapatnam: Andhra Pradesh Coast
(6) CWC Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala coast, Karnataka Coast and Lakshadweep Islands
(7) CWC Ahmedabad: Gujarat Coast
12.6.3. Hoisting of signals
A uniform system of storm warning signals was introduced at all the ports in India from 1st April 1898 and it is still in
vogue with very little changes. The salient features of the system are described below:
(i) General System
A General System with eleven signals (Table 12.4); the first two of which (signals No. I and II) indicate the existence of
distant disturbed weather, the next eight (signals III to X) indicate that the port itself is threatened by bad weather and
the last one (signal No. XI) Indicates that the communication with the ACWC/CWC had broken down and that in the
opinion of the local Port Officer, there is danger of bad weather. Signals No. I and II are called Distant Signals and the
rest Local signals. The ports where this system of signals is in use are called General Ports.
(ii) Extended System
An Extended System which in addition to the eleven signals of the General System, has six Section signals (Details are
given in Cyclone Manual) to indicate the location of the disturbance. These additional signals are hoisted along with
Distant Signals. This system is a special case of the General System and is in use only at a few ports on the east coast
(Bay of Bengal). These ports are: Sagar Island, Kakinada, Chennai, Cuddalore and Nagapattinam. These ports are called
Extended Ports. There is no port under the Extended System on the west coast.
(iii) Brief System
A Brief System of portwarning consisting of only five of the signals of the General Systems (viz. Signal Nos. III, IV, VII, X
and XI) is also in practice in ports frequented mainly by smaller vessels engaged in local traffic and these ports are
called Brief Ports. These are hoisted in association with prospects of bad weather at the port itself caused by
disturbances out at sea.
(iv) Ports without Signals
In addition, there are some minor ports where no signals are hoisted but which get a special type of warning message;
they are called Ports without signals. For purposes of warning, these ports are treated as Brief ports and
corresponding port warnings are issued when adverse weather threatens them although no signals are advised to be
hoisted. These warning messages will contain information on the location, intensity and direction of movement of the
disturbance and the expected weather over the port.
The India Meteorological Department (through the ACWCs/CWCs) maintains a port warning service by which the port
officers are warned by telefax about disturbed weather likely to affect their ports. On receipt of the warning bulletin
from the ACWC/CWC, the port officers hoist appropriate visual signals prominently on signal masts so that they are
visible from a distance. Mariners and other sea-faring people, including fishermen who may not be literate, are
generally aware of the meaning of these signals and the port authorities are always ready to explain them whenever
necessary. At some ports, the meanings of the signals are displayed in English as well as in the local languages
prominently on a notice board. While the India Meteorological Department is responsible for issuing the warnings, the
280
port authorities arrange the display of signals. In addition to hoisting the signals, the port officers in most cases, make
arrangements for disseminating the warnings received by them, to country craft and sailing vessels in the harbours.
The port warning signals (general system) used in India are shown in Table 12.4
Table 12.4.
Port Warning Signals (General System) used in India
Signal/Flag NAME Symbols Description

No.
Day Night
1 DISTANT BAD DC1 Depression far at sea.
WEATHER Port NOT affected.
2 DW2 Cyclone far at sea.

Warning for vessels leaving
port.
3 LOCAL BAD LC3 Port Threatened by local bad

WEATHER weather like squally winds.
4 LW4 Cyclone at sea. Likely to affect

the port later.
5 D5 Cyclone likely to cross coast

keeping port to its left.
DANGER
6. D6 Cyclone likely to cross coast
keeping port to its right.
7. D7 Cyclone likely to cross coast

over/near to the port.
8. GD8 Severe cyclone to cross coast

keeping port to its left.

keeping port to its right.
GREAT DANGER
over or very near to the port.
11. XI Communication failed with

cyclone warning office.
281
12.6.4. Frequency of Issue and contents of Port Warning Bulletin
Ports in the maritime States are warned 5 to 6 times a day during periods of cyclonic storm by telefax. The warnings
contain information about the location, intensity and expected direction of movement of the storm or depression, the
part of the coast where it is expected to strike and the type of signal which the port should hoist. As landline
communication between the port and the CWC may break down during a cyclone, provision exists for using state and
inter-state police W/T channels wherever available for passing on the warnings.
12.6.5. Format for Port Warning
Port Warning No.
Date and Time for Issue
(i) Information on cyclone: The cyclonic storm lay over Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea near Lat.__/Long. ____ at a distance
_______ km. from __________ at ______ IST _____ Estimated Central Pressure _______ hPa.
(ii)Forecast:
Further intensification:
Direction of Movement:
Expected Landfall Area :
Expected Time of Landfall :
Advice for hoisting Storm Warning Signals:
Likely impacts and actions : Depending on intensity of the storm as per IMD Monograph on “Damage Potential of
Tropical cyclones.
12.6.6. Explanation of the port warnings
By definition and order of priority the port warnings give risk level in an increasing order. It is easy to decode and to
use them in an effective way.
DC1 and DW2 – Indicative of a depression or cyclone at a distance in sea without any immediate weather over
the indicated port.
LC3 and LW4 -- Indicative of depression or cyclone at a distance in sea (within 500 km from the respective coasts)
with likely squally weather over the indicated port. LC3 is also an indicative of low pressure at sea
with likely squally weather over the indicative port.
D5, D6, D7 -- Presence of a cyclone that is likely to affect the port in the increasing order of number
GD8, GD9, GD10 -- Presence of a severe cyclone and above that is likely to affect the port in the increasing order of
number
NUMBER XI – Communication with the forecasting office is lost for any reason but bad weather is expected.
(Irrelevant in the present communication scenario)
It can surely be decided that DC1 and DW2 indicate no bad weather situation, LC3 and LW4 indicate an alert situation,
D5, D6, D7 indicate a lower alarm situation and GD8, GD9, GD10 indicate a higher alarm situation.
12.6.7. Meanings of Signals
The meanings of the various signals are given in the above table. Details of the specifications of the visual signals used
during day time and lamp signals used during night are given in the departmental publication Code of Storm Warning
Signals for use at Indian maritime Ports – Sixth edition, 1984.
(i) Distant Signals : Distant signals are hoisted only at ports under General and Extended Systems and not at Brief
ports.
There are two Distant Signals: Distant cautionary signals No. I (DC I) and Distant Warning signal No. II (DW II). DC I is
hoisted at a port when the system out at sea is a depression or a deep depression and while the local weather at the
port itself is not likely to be affected immediately, ships leaving the port may run into danger during their voyage.
282
Discretion has, therefore, to be exercised while assessing such a probability, taking into account the location of the
weather system out at sea with reference to the port and the estimated direction and speed of movement of the
system. When the system has intensified into a storm and still out at sea. Distant Warning signal No. II (DW II) is to be
hoisted. If there is a risk of the port itself experiencing bad weather, the appropriate local signal is to be hoisted in
preference to the Distant signals. Thus, when a port having a Distant signal is also likely to have squally weather
although the depression/storm is still away, the obvious action will be to change the Distant signal to LC-III. Nothing
precludes hoisting of LC-III at a port where Distant signal is to be hoisted if the port is expected to have squally
weather. In general, when a weather situation warrants more than one signal, the highest numbered signal is hoisted.
Unless one of the Local signals is more appropriate and hoisted, the Distant signal is also hoisted at Arabian Sea Ports
when a disturbance from the Bay is crossing the peninsula and may develop into a depression/cyclone after entering
the Arabian Sea.
(ii) Sections Signals : When a Distant signal (DC I or DW II) is hoisted at an Extended port, an appropriate Section (or
Locality) signal must also be hoisted. For the purpose of Locality signals, Bay of Bengal has been divided into six
sections as given below :
o
Section I : North Bay area to the north of Lat. 18½ N
o
Section II : West Central Bay – lies south of I and is bounded on the south by Lat. 13 N and on the east by Long.
o
88½ E.
o
Section III : East Central Bay – lies south of I and east of II. It is bounded on the south by Lat. 13 N and on the east
o o
by a line from the point, Lat. 13 N, Long. 93 E to Diamond Island, the Arakan Coast and thence upto
o
Lat. 18½ N.
o
Section IV : Southwest Bay – lies south of II, and west of Long. 86 E
o
Section V : Southeast Bay – lies east of IV, south of II, III and west of Long. 93 E.
o
Section VI : Andaman Sea – lies east of III and V. The southern boundary for Sections IV, V and VI is lat. 5 N.
(iii) Change In Section Signals : The section signal will be changed when the center of the system moves from one
section into another, even if there is no material change in other respects. Similarly, if DC I is changed to DW II or vice
versa, Section signals are also to be repeated in the message, even if there is no change in the Section signal(s).
(iv). Number of Section Signals : Generally the Locality signal Number is of that section in which the center of the
depression/storm is situated. If, however, the center is near the boundary of a division, two Locality signals are asked
to be hoisted, the first indicating the division in which the center is actually situated and the second the division
nearest to the first. In the event of a center being near the corner where three divisions meet, three Locality signals
are asked to be hoisted, the first indicating the division in which the storm is estimated to be centred, the second the
o
nearest adjoining division and the third, the remaining division. Examples : Storm Centre Locality Signals Lat. 16 N –
o o o o o o o o
Long. 86 E II Lat. 16 N – Long. 88 E II and III Lat. 16 N – Long. 89 E III and II Lat. 18 N – Long. 87½ E II, I & III Lat. 19 N –
o
Long. 89½ E I, III & II
(v). Local Cautionary Signal Number Three (LC – III) : LC – III is a signal very frequently hoisted at the ports. It is
hoisted at a port which is likely to experience squally weather. Squally weather is meant to cover occasional or
frequent squalls with rain or persistent type of strong gusty winds (mean wind speed not less than 20 kt.)
accompanied by rain. Such conditions are associated with low pressure systems or onset and strengthening of
monsoon. Mean wind speed exceeding 33 kt. associated with cyclonic storms are generally covered by signals higher
than LC-III. The significance of the word generally in the previous sentence is to permit the hoisting of LC-III at ports
outside the inner storm area where wind speed may exceed 33 kt.
(vi). LC-III In Association with the Monsoon : The general convention not to keep LC-III hoisted too long requires an
amplification in the case of squally weather associated with the monsoon. LC-III should be hoisted
(a) when squally weather is expected in the port due to the first advance of the monsoon or
(b) whenever after the monsoon has been established, it is expected to strengthen markedly following a period of
weak or moderate monsoon and cause associated markedly squally weather at the port. If the occasions of hoisting
this signal are regulated by these considerations, then it will follow that the signal should also remain hoisted for such
time as the associated threat of squally weather at the port remains. The criterion followed for hoisting LC-III under
condition
283
(c) above is that the expected wind speed should be 30 kt. or more. This minimum limit of 30 kt has been adopted
with a view to restrict the number of occasions on which LC-III will have to be hoisted. The term markedly squally
weather will always be used in all such messages. When advice to hoist LC III or to keep LC III hoisted is given to a port,
there should be a reference in the message to the likelihood (or continuance) of squally weather at the port, like
squally weather likely (or likely continue) at your port next …….. hours. However, in messages to hoist higher signals,
no such elaboration is made and the associated weather in such cases is to be inferred by the Port Officer.
(vii). Local Warning Signal Number Four (LW IV) : When a cyclonic storm has actually formed, LW IV is hoisted at ports
which could possibly be struck later by the storm, since the existence of a storm can often be determined before its
direction of motion can be fixed. It is a preliminary stage when the direction of motion of the system is yet to be fixed
with certainty and serves as a prelude to the possibility of Danger or Great Danger signals at a later time. From the
specification of the signal, it is evident that LW IV by itself is not associated with any particular severity of weather.
When the direction of movement becomes definite (i.e. when the coast and the ports where the storm will strike is
indicated in the sea area bulletin), LW IV will be replaced by Danger or Great Danger signals as appropriate at the
ports expected to be affected directly by the storm and LC-III at ports where squally weather associated with the
storm is expected to prevail.
(viii). Danger and Great Danger Signals : Danger signals are hoisted when the storm is of slight or moderate intensity
and Great Danger Signals when the storm is severe. The intensity refers to the intensity of the storm at and about its
center and not to the intensity or severity of the weather in different parts of the cyclone. In the circumstances,
hoisting of Great Danger signals at some ports and Danger signals at other ports at the same time to convey the
varying severity of the effect of the cyclone at the different ports is inconsistent with the existing specifications of the
signals. While Danger or Great Danger signals should be hoisted at such ports which will be affected by the inner
storm area (where wind speed may exceed 33 kt.), LC – III may be hoisted at the same time at such of the ports
outside the inner storm area as may be considered necessary
12.6.8. Some General Rules regarding Signals
12.6.8.1. Signals Confirm to Intensity of Systems : As a general rule, signals have to conform strictly to the existing
intensity of the system. If some rapid development is expected, the office should keep a careful and continuous watch
on the basis of the special observations and issue suitable modifications as and when necessary. They (the signals) are
stepped up or down, as and when necessary, depending upon the intensity of the system.
12.6.8.2. Typical Progression of Signals : A typical progression of signals is the Distant Cautionary (DC I), Distant
Warning (DW II), Local Warning (LW IV) and Danger or Great Danger. During such a succession of signals, it is essential
that the change from Cautionary to Warning be accompanied by a verbal description of the change of the system from
a depression or area of squally weather or disturbed weather to a storm. This progression does not however over-rule
the practice of having LC III with the declaration of storm at ports towards which the storm is not heading but which
may still experience squally weather. This progression does not also over-rule if occasion demands, the changing of
signals by two stages like replacing of DW II by Danger or LC III by Great Danger. Similarly there is nothing to preclude
replacing an existing Danger/Great Danger signal by LC-III, when the threat to the port is removed by the system
moving away but squally weather is still likely over the port for some more time.
12.6.8.3. Signals not to be Kept Hoisted Longer than Necessary : Signals should not be kept hoisted longer than
necessary, so as not to adversely affect the operations at a port. When a storm is crossing or crossed the coast, in
general, discretion is allowed in stepping down from Danger signal to LC-III or no signal at all depending upon whether
the return of the weather to normal is foreseen to take place through successive stages or quickly. When the system is
over land and the port is likely to continue to experience bad weather with same severity, appropriate signals can be
kept hoisted at that port.
12.6.8.4. Informatory messages due to Steep Pressure Gradient : Informatory messages are sent to ports about
strong winds in association with steep pressure gradients but no signals are hoisted. However, as per local practice at
ACWC Kolkata, CWC Bhubaneswar and ACWC Mumbai and CWC Ahmedabad, LC-III is hoisted under such condition
also.
12.6.8.5. Informatory Messages for Brief Ports : Informatory messages are also sent to Brief ports without any advice
to hoist any signal when disturbances currently out at sea, are likely to affect the ports during the next 48 hours.
284
12.6.9. Text of Warnings to Ports : Ports under General, Extended and Brief systems should receive warning messages
consisting of relevant portions of sea area bulletins along with instructions to hoist the appropriate signals. The port
warning messages are expected generally to conform to the radio weather messages issued to shipping. The bulletins
issued by ACWCs at Kolkata, Chennai and Mumbai are to be the basis on which port warnings and other action will be
initiated by the CWCs at Bhubaneswar, Visakhapatnam and Ahmedabad respectively till the system is picked up by the
radars at Paradip, Machilipatnam, Visakhapatnam and Bhuj. For the benefit of ships lying at ports which may not
receive sea area bulletins, the central pressure of the system is also included in the port warning messages from the
stage of cyclonic storm onwards. The number of the signal to be hoisted is given in plain language to avoid errors in
transmission. Similar procedure should also be followed for other items such as latitude and longitude of center of the
storm etc. In all messages to ports subsequent to the one advising the hoisting of a signal, the words keep signal
number -----hoisted should be mentioned till the signal is lowered or replaced by another signal. The ports without
signals also receive messages whenever adverse weather threatens them due to a disturbance. These messages may
be similar to the one to the adjoining ports with signals and will contain information on the location and direction of
movement of the system and the expected weather over the ports in brief. Only the advice to hoist any signal is
omitted in the messages.
12.6.10. Transmission of messages to ports : Port warning messages are normally sent by fax. Immediate telephone
calls also are made to Port Officers regarding the disturbed weather at their ports. Police W/T facilities can also be
utilized for passing on the port warning messages to such of the ports where Police W/T stations are existing, in the
following cases: (i) when the meteorological telecommunication channels have either failed or (ii) when there is a
likelihood of the messages getting unduly delayed.
12.7. Frequency of messages to ports for hoisting the signals
12.7.1. For Distant Signals : It is sufficient if ports with Distant signals (DC I or DW II) get a message once a day, usually
based on 0300 UTC chart. However, in between, if there is a necessity to change the section to another, fresh
messages are to be sent to the concerned Extended ports. Or, if the system changes in intensity from depression to
storm (or vice versa), even without change of position necessitating change of signal from DC I to DW II (or vice versa),
fresh messages are to be sent to the General and Extended ports concerned.
12.7.2. For LC III Or Higher Signals : When LC III or higher signals are hoisted, the concerned ports should get a
message each time a sea area bulletin is issued i.e. thrice a day in the depression stage and at least six times a day
when the system is a cyclonic storm.
12.7.3. For Ports without signals : Ports without signals should be informed at least once in 24 hours or whenever
there is a change in signals in the nearby Brief port. There seems to be differences in the practice followed at ACWCs
Chennai and Mumbai.
12.8. Warnings for Fisheries
12.8.1. Issuing office and area of responsibility
The following offices have the responsibility of issuing warning for fishermen for the respective coast and sea areas
indicated against them:
(i) ACWC Kolkata : West Bengal Coast, Northwest Bay of Bengal, Northeast BoB, North &South Andaman Sea
(ii) CWC Bhubaneswar : North& South Odisha coast.
(iii) CWC Visakhapatnam : North& South Andhra Pradesh coast
(iv) ACWC Chennai : North& South Tamil Nadu coast, Comorin Area, Maldives Area, Southeast BoB, Southwest BoB,
West Central BoB, and East Central BoB.
(v) CWC Thiruvananthapuram : Kerala Coast, Karnataka Coast, Lakshadweep area, Southwest Arabian Sea and
southeast Arabian Sea.
285
(vi) ACWC Mumbai : North & South Maharashtra Coast, Goa coast, West Central Arabian Sea, East central Arabian
Sea
(vii) CWC Ahmedabad : North Gujarat Coast, South Gujarat Coast, northwest Arabian Sea, northeast Arabian Sea.
12.8.2. Criteria for issuing fisherman warning
Fishermen warning should be issued for next five days for the respective coasts of CWC/ACWC with warnings for other
coasts and for open sea areas in text format as well as in graphics (Figure 12.7)
1. Categories of warning : Hereafter, there will be only one category of Fishermen Warning and should be issued
for “not to venture into sea”. Messages with “alert” or “to be cautious” may not be used henceforth.
2. Wind criterion : In the presence of low pressure systems below the intensity of depression or in the case of
strong Monsoon conditions or when squally weather is expected with mean wind speed more than 45 kmph
fishermen are to be advised “not to venture into the sea”.
The actual surface wind should be estimated based on the observations from ships, buoys, coastal & island synoptic/
AWS observations and satellite based wind products , like, SCATSAT, ASCAT, WINDSAT, CIMSS etc. The forecast wind
will be based on the consensus derived from various numerical models guidance for 10M wind modulated by the
consensus arrived through Video Conference among forecasters.
Example: Squally wind speed reaching (i) 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph/ (ii) 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph likely
along and off ………coasts and/or over …….sea areas. Sea condition will be very rough. Fishermen are advised not to
venture into sea along and off ………coasts and/or into …….sea areas.
3. High Wave/ Swell criterion : If high waves/ swell waves (wave/ swell wave/ with significant wave height of 4.0
meter or more corresponding to very rough sea conditions) are forecast by INCOIS, then warning should be issued
with text “not to venture into the sea”.
Example: Rough to very rough sea conditions are very likely due to high waves in the range of 3.5 - 5.0 metersduring
17:30 hours on 25-06-2018 to 23:30 hours of 27-06-2018 along the coast of Gujarat from Jakhau to Diu Head.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off south Gujarat coast during the same period.
4. Guidance by INCOIS : Website of INCOIS gets updated once a day around 1730 IST. Whenever there is a high
wave/ swell wave alert on their website, the same shall be incorporated in all relevant warning and bulletins
originated by all the forecasting offices even in the absence of strong wind conditions.
5. Presence of Intense low pressure systems : In case of intense low pressure systems (depression and above),
various bulletins should invariably follow the numbered national bulletins issued by RSMC, New Delhi.
6. Area under warning : In addition to the coastal areas under the jurisdiction of the forecast issuing office, the
relevant sea areas are also to be indicated in the warning text in the interest of the safety of the marine community
who travels to open sea or to other coastal areas.Thus, ACWCs, CWCs and coastal MCs shall also incorporate the
warnings for the neighbouring coast, or the sector of the sea or open sea in their bulletins in order to warn those
fishermen who plan for fishing in distant locations.
7. Uniformity in Bulletins : Sea weather conditions should be discussed routinely in the daily Video Conferencing
(VC) along with other weather warnings for the mainland. The decisions taken in the morning Video Conference
should be invariably followed by all concerned offices. In case, an issuing office feels a change is necessary from the
decisions taken in the VC or from the national Bulletin, the same should be done only in consultation with NWFC and
concerned CWC/ACWC in order to maintain uniformity in the bulletins nationwide.
8. Validity period of warnings : Fishermen warningsare issued with a validity period of five days.
12.8.3. Time and Frequency of issue : Fishermen warning should be issued four times in a day around 0530, 1330,
1730, 2130 hrs IST.
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Figure. Shaded areas represents warning for fishermen
12.8.4. Mode of transmission of Fishermen warnings
Warnings for fishing interests are transmitted by landline telegram or over telephone to the AIR stations (about 30 in
number) in the maritime states. These warnings are broadcast as a routine four times a day (morning, mid-day,
evening and night) from the AIR stations in the local language. During a cyclonic storm, such warnings are covered in
the cyclone bulletins sent to the AIR stations at hourly or 3 hourly intervals for frequent broadcast. The fishermen can
listen to these broadcasts through portable radio receiving sets.
Warnings through FAX
In addition to warnings broadcast by AIR stations, direct warning messages are also sent by telefax to a large number
of officials belonging to the fisheries departments in maritime states.
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12.8.5. Format for fisheries Warning
Fisheries warning No. ________________
Date and Time of Issue ______________
Information on Cyclone:
Cyclonic Storm lay over ________________ Bay of Bengal / Arabian Sea at a distance
_______________ kms. _______________ from _________ at ______________ IST on _________________ (date)
Forecast:
Further intensification
Direction of Movement
Expected landfall area
Expected time of landfall
Warnings: Wind, Sea Condition and Tidal Waves
Storm Warning Signals at ports
Advice and Action : i) Fishermen not to venture into open seas

ii) Fishermen at Sea not to come to the ports (names)_____ in coast.
iii) Fishermen to be cautious while going out in the sea
iv) Fishermen are advised to return to coast
12.9. The source of information and products
Following are the products to be consulted/ utilised for the preparation of marine bulletins and warnings:
1.Synergie surface analysis with ship and bouy data plotted

2. IMD GFS site for isobaric analysis, 10 meter wind and also for 10 day forecast
https://nwp.imd.gov.in/diag_all_new.php
3. INCOIS website for Wave, swell information
https://incois.gov.in/portal/osf/osf.jsp
4. ECMWF for 1000 hPa wind, Isobaric analysis, wave and swell forecast (probability forecast also) for significant levels
for warnings
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/swfdp-bengal-bay-swh-
mwd?facets=undefined&time=2020073000,6,2020073006 (password protected)
5.In addition, JMA through SWFDP website (https://nwp.imd.gov.in/mme/fdp-bob/login.php) gives forecast of swells
for the southern oceans which gives a good indication about the forthcoming episodes in NIO eventhough full areal
coverage is not available at present.
6. WINDY website https://www.windy.com/ gives animation of various ocean state forecast products of ECMWF
model as well as that of GFS model, in addition to the atmospheric parameters.
12.10. Other products generated by Cyclone Warning Division/ RSMCNew Delhi
Few graphical products which are of relevance to the provision of marine services are developed every six hours based
on 00, 06,12 & 18 UTC by the CWD and sent to users when there is a cyclonic storm in NIO. These products are also
uploaded on the cyclone page of IMD website.
12.10.1. Ship avoidance guidance
Radius of circle to construct the area of ship avoidance guidance is given in Table 6.6. The radius of this circle is the
combination of radius of cone of uncertainty and the radius of gale wind (34 kts or more). Details on all products are
available in Cyclone warning SOP.
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Table 12.6.
Radius of circle to construct the cone of ship avoidance guidance
F/C Period Radius (km/nm) of circle to construct cone of

ship avoidance
12 hr Radius of 34 kts wind + 75/40
Figure 12.6. Typical example of radii of quadrant wind forecast issued by IMD
12.11. Damage potential and action suggested in the bulletin
The bulletin for India coast during cyclonic storms gives the expected damage and action suggested as given in Table.
This contains suggested action for the fishermen community also.
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Table 12.7.
Damage potential and action suggested in Bulletin for India coast
Intensity Damage expected Action Suggested

Deep Depression Minor damage to loose and Fishermen advised not to
50 – 61 kmph unsecured structures venture into the open seas.
(28-33 knots)
Cyclonic Storm Damage to thatched huts. Total suspension of fishing
62 – 87 kmph Breaking of tree branches operations
causing minor damage to
(34-47 knots)
power and communication
lines
Severe Cyclonic Storm Extensive damage to thatched Total suspension of fishing
88-117 kmph roofs and huts. Minor damage operations. Coastal hutment
to power and communication dwellers to be moved to safer
(48-63 knots)
lines due to uprooting of large places. People in affected areas
avenue trees. Flooding of to remain indoors.
escape routes.
Very Severe Cyclonic Extensive damage to kutcha Total suspension of fishing

Storm houses. Partial disruption of operations. Mobilise evacuation
118-167 kmph power and communication from coastal areas. Judicious
line. Minor disruption of rail regulation of rail and road traffic.
(64-90 knots)
and road traffic. Potential People in affected areas to
threat from flying debris. remain indoors.
Flooding of escape routes.
Extremely Severe Extensive damage to kutcha Total suspension of fishing

Cyclonic Storm 168-221 houses. Some damage to old operations. Extensive evacuation
kmph buildings. Large-scale from coastal areas. Diversion or
(91-119 knots) disruption of power and suspension of rail and road
communication lines. traffic. People in affected areas
Disruption of rail and road to remain indoors.
traffic due to extensive
flooding. Potential threat from
flying debris.
Super Cyclone Extensive structural damage Total suspension of fishing
222 kmph and more (120 to residential and industrial operations. Large-scale
knots and more) buildings. Total disruption of evacuation of coastal population.
communication and power Total suspension of rail and road
supply. traffic in vulnerable areas.
Extensive damage to bridges People in affected areas to
causing large-scale disruption remain indoors.
of rail and road traffic. Large-
scale flooding and inundation
of sea water. Air full of flying
debris.
12.12. Terminologies in the bulletins
Some of the important terminologies used in the bulletins pertain to description of sea condition, amount/ intensity of
heavy rainfall, distribution of rainfall etc. are presented in following Tables.
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Table 12.10.
State of Sea
Descriptive Term Height Wind Speed In Beaufort

Metres Knots (Kmph) Scale
CALM (GLASSY) 0 0 0
CALM (RIPPLED) 0 - 0.1 1 - 3 (2 - 6) 1
SMOOTH (WAVELESS) 0.1 - 0.5 4 - 10 (7 - 19) 2-3

SLIGHT 0.5 - 1.25 11 - 16 (20 - 30) 4
MODERATE 1.25 - 2.5 17 - 21 (31 - 39) 5
ROUGH 2.5 - 4.0 22 - 27 (41 - 50) 6
VERY ROUGH 4.0 - 6.0 28 - 33 (52 - 61) 7
HIGH 6.0 - 9.0 34 - 40 (63 - 74) 8
VERY HIGH 9.0 - 14.0 41 - 63 (76 - 117) 9 - 11
PHENOMENAL OVER 14 64 or above (119 or above) 12
Table 12.11.
Distribution of Rainfall
Distribution No. of Places Description

Isolated Isolated/One or two places <25% of area gets rainfall
Scattered A few places (26 –50)% of area gets rainfall
Fairly Widespread Many places (51 – 75)% of area gets rainfall
Wide Spread Most places (76 – 100)% of area gets rainfall
Table 12.12.
Intensity of Rainfall
Descriptive term used Rainfall amount in mm

No rain 0.0
Very light rain 0.1- 2.4
Light rain 2.5 – 15.5
Moderate rain 15.6 – 64.4
Heavy rain 64.5 – 115.5
Very heavy rain 115.6 – 204.4
Extremely heavy rain ≥204.5
Exceptionally heavy rain When the amount is a value near about highest recorded
rainfall at or near the station for the month or season.
However, this term will be used only when the actual rainfall
amount exceeds 12 cm.
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12.13. Marine impact of cyclonicstorms
S. Strength of wind Satellite Wave height

Intensity Condition of Sea
No. (kmph/knots) ‘T’ No. (m)
1. Depression (i)(31- 40)/(17-21) 1.5 Moderate 1.25-2.5
(ii)(41- 49)/(22-27) Rough 2.5-4.0
2. Deep Depression (50–61)/(28-33) 2.0 Very Rough 4.0-6.0
3. Cyclonic Storm (62–87)/(34-47) 2.5-3.0 High 6.0-9.0
4. Severe Cyclonic (88-117)/(48-63) 3.5 Very High 9.0-14.0
Storm
5. Very Severe Cyclonic (118-167)/(64-90) 4.0-4.5 Phenomenal Over 14.0
Storm
6 Extremely Severe (168-221)/(91-119) 5.0–6.0 Phenomenal Over 14.0
Cyclonic Storm
7. Super Cyclonic 222/120 and more) 6.5 and Phenomenal Over 14.0
Storm more
12.14. Nomograms : Following nomograms are to be used in case of non-availability of model outputs:
12.14.1. For wave height estimation:
Corresponding estimated significant wave

Wind speed in (knots)
height (meter)
5-10 kt 0.5-1 m
10-15 kt 1-2 m
15-20 kt 2-3 m
20-25 kt 3-4 m
25-30 kt 4-5 m
30-35 kt 5-6 m
12.14.2. Nomogram for visibility estimation in rain
Visibility products are not very common. Hence for estimating visibility in areas of rain the following table is used:
Spatial distribution of rainfall Estimated visibility

Wide spread 3-2 nautical miles (NM)
Fairly wide spread 4-3 NM
Scattered 6-4 NM
Isolated 8-6 NM
Fair 10-8 Nm
12.15. Product generation
During the morning Video conferencing with the regional forecasting offices (ACWCs), Marine Division will propose
the sea areas and coasts for issuing warnings and type of warning based on the actual observations and analyses and
also based on the model forecast. The regional offices/ ACWCs/ CWCs will put forward their points and a consensus
would form on the expected development of major weather systems and related warnings for the forthcoming 5 days.
In case of a possible development of a low pressure system, the marine products should be the same as that of the
national bulletins issued by the Cyclone warning Division.
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Meteorological Communication & Early Dissemination
Chapter 13
13.1. Introduction
All disaster emergencies and crisis events are by nature chaotic and highly dynamic, creating physical, emotional and
social disorder. In such crisis events and emergencies, timely communication of information to all stakeholders is
critical at all phases of disaster management. Communications during disaster weather events incorporates a wide
range of measures to manage risks to communities and the environment. Communicating information from various
data sources that include observations like surface, upper air, satellites, radar and remote sensing etc., early warning
is made possible. Before disasters strike, telecommunications can be used as a conduit for disseminating information
about the impending danger thus, making it possible for government agencies and people to take the necessary
precautions and measures to mitigate the impact of the hazards.
Major weather events such as Tropical Cyclones, Earthquakes, Heavy rainfall, Floods, Drought, Heat / Cold wave
warnings are disseminated to various users through telephone, fax, e-mail, SMS, Global Telecom System (GTS), WMO
Information System (WIS), All India Radio, FM & community radio, Television, Social media (facebook, whatsapp,
twitter, Youtube, Instagram) and other print & electronic media, press conference & press release. These
warnings/advisories are also put on the website (www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in and www.mausam.imd.gov.in) of
IMD HQs and concerned MCs/CWCs. Another means to transmit warning is IVRS (Interactive Voice Response system).
It is functioning with effect from July 2000. The requests for weather information and forecasts from the general
public are automatically answered by this system. One can access current weather and forecast for major Indian cities
by dialing Toll-free number 1800 220 161. Presently a centralized IVRS is catering the weather information of major
cities. India Meteorological Department has taken various initiatives in recent years for improvement in the
dissemination of weather forecast and warning services based on latest tools and technologies. Since 2009, IMD has
started SMS based weather and alert dissemination system through AMSS (Transmet) at RTH New Delhi. To further
enhance this initiative, India Meteorological Department has taken the leverage of Digital India Programme to utilize
“Mobile Seva” of Department of Electronics and Information Technology (DeitY), Ministry of Communication and
Information Technology; Govt. of India for SMS based Warnings /Weather information dissemination for a wide range
th
of users. The SMS based cyclone alert to the registered users including public was inaugurated on 25 December 2014.
Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) message is also put in RSMC, New Delhi website (URL:
www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in) as well as transmitted through GTS. The WIS Portal –GISC New Delhi is another
system for cyclone warning dissemination. The user can access the warning messages through the -URL:
http://www.wis.imd.gov.in. IMD has also started issuing of NAVTEX bulletins for the coastal region along east as well
th
as the west coast of India for the operation of lightships and fishermen from 30 March 2016.
In addition, the SMS-based alert/warnings are issued to registered farmers through Kisan portal of Govt. of India
(Ministry of Agriculture) and to registered fishermen through Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Sciences
(INCOIS), Hyderabad also.
IMD is also working in collaboration with ISRO for disseminating the SMSs to fishermen in deep seas through GAMES
and NAVIK systems.IMD also working with WMO and NDMA for disseminating the warning through CAP (Common
Alerting Protocol).IMD is also working in collaboration with NEGD, Department Of Electronics And Information
Technology for disseminating warning via UMANG mobile app. IMD has also established new cyclone warning centre
at Thiruvananthapuram w.e.f. October, 2018 to improve dissemination of warnings and advisories for the states of
Kerala, Karnataka and Lakshadweep Islands.
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Figure 1. Overview of Information System
13.2. Automatic Messaging Switching System (AMSS)
India Meteorological Department has a very extensive Telecommunication network with a Regional Telecom Hub
(RTH) in MausamBhavan, New Delhi and Four Regional Automatic Message Switching Systems (AMSS) at Palam,
Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, airports.
Figure 2. Data Flow of AMSS
These Four AMSS are connected to the GTS (Global Telecommunication System), the central hub of WMO through
RTH New Delhi. RTH New Delhi is one of the 15 designated RTHs and three World Meteorological Centre (WMCs) on
the Main Telecommunication Network (MTN) of the GTS for exchange of meteorological data and products globally.
These six AMSSs are also connected to the AFTN (Aeronautical Fixed Telecommunication Network) for the exchange
of operational meteorological messages (OPMET). The responsibility of these AMSS, therefore, is to collect and
exchange the meteorological data and products from the various observatories, meteorological centres (MCs),
Meteorological offices(Airports), Radar Stations(i.e. DWR) and other institutions under their control among
themselves and to WMO/ICAO member countries through RTH New Delhi / AFTN network.
294
IMD being the national meteorological service provider provides the meteorological services to all the aviation
operators at all the major airports. IMD is also providing aviation meteorological services to the aviation operators
through dedicated automated pre-flight information systems for briefing, consultation, flight planning and flight
documentation (OLBS) from AMO Palam (Delhi) & AMO Chennai since 2012-2013.
Table 1
Types of Data received in AMSS
S. No. Data Type Data Volume per Volume per month Format of Data
day (MB) (GB)
1. Satellite 82172 2407.4 HDF/BUFR
2. Satellite 350 10.3 GIF/JPEG
3. Radar 23552 690 NETCDF/BUFR
5. NWP 17264640 505800 GRIB
6. Cyclone 200 5.9 TEXT
7. Marine 1 0.03 TEXT
8. NWFC 140 4.1 TEXT
9. Observation 500 14.6 TEXT/BUFR
• Surface
• Upper Air
• Aviation Data
• Buoy Data
Table 2
Types of Bulletins transmitted through GTS
S. No. Bulletins Frequency Received from

1. Tropical Cyclone RSMC (i)Depression – When felt necessary Cyclone Warning Division
Bulletin (ii)Deep Depression and Cyclone (CWD)
formation – Every 3 hourly
2. Tropical Cyclone Every 6 hourly Cyclone Warning Division
Advisory TCAC Bulletin (CWD)
3. National Cyclone During Cylcone Every 3 hours National Weather Forecasting
Bulletin Centre (NWFC)
4. Quadrant Wind During Cylcone Every 3 hours National Weather Forecasting
Centre (NWFC)
5. Tropical Weather Once in a day National Weather Forecasting
Outlook Centre (NWFC)
6. India Weather Bulletin Twice a day National Weather Forecasting
(IWB) Centre (NWFC)
7. GMDSS Bulletin (i)During Normal times - Twice a day Marine Meteorology Division
(ii) During Cyclone – Special GMDSS
bulletin issued in addition to twice a
day.
8. Morning Air News Once a day National Weather Forecasting
Centre (NWFC)
9. Satellite Bulletin Every 3 hourly Satellite Application Unit
• Main components of Communication System –
• Central Information Processing System (CIPS): High end database management system having task
centre to develop, test and operationalize meteorological tasks for real time generation of
meteorological products.
295
• Transmet: Automatic Message Switching System (AMSS) to receive, check and route the meteorological
data and products according to WMO standards/requirements.
• Public Weather System (PWS): To deliver High quality weather products and alerts to end users like
print media and Television.
• Clisys: Climatological data storage system with scalable management tool for effective utilization of
these data.
• Synergie: Decision support system for forecasters to gather, visuslize, interacts and value adds
meteorological forecasts and products.
The Mirror RTH at Pune is functional to act as Disaster Recovery Centre (DRC) which would be able to take over all the
responsibilities of RTH New Delhi in case of any catastrophe at RTH New Delhi. This will also function as WMO WIS
GISC for South East Asia and cater to all data needs for Indian users and all other WMO GISC centres in real time with
24 hours cache for all data.
Procedure for submission of data to RTH New Delhi
Step 1: open the IP address in your web browser 125.21.185.16
Step 2: 1st login: user XXXXX

password: XXXXX
2nd login: user ID: XXXXX

password: XXXXX
Step 3:
After login go to the created message
296
Step 4: Go to blank to the right .The following screen will open.
Step 5: You can enter the data to send directly to RTH New Delhi.
Contact Details for RTH/AMSS
Mr. Y. S. Tandale, 91-9421679421 yashwant.tandale@imd.gov.in RTH, CRS, IMD,

MET-A Shivajinagar,
Pune - 411005
D. S. PAI, Sc-‘F’ 91 9422313758 sivapai@hotmail.com ds67.pai@im

d.gov.in
Fax 91 20 25535435 sivapai@hotmail.com
Phone 91 20 25535877
AMSS, RMC Kolkata

Shri Sourav Adhikary, 9433126234 s.adhikary@imd.gov.in Office Address: MWO
Sc.-‘F’ Kolkata, NSCB
International
033-2511 9434
Airport, Dum Dum,
Kolkata, West Bengal
700052
AMSS Mumbai
Mr. V. RathinaSamy, 9890801693 rathinas61@yahoo.co.in Meteorological Office
Met."B" 022-26829415 / Mumbai, New ATS
022-26819671 Complex,
Sutarpakhadi Road,
Near Cargo Complex,
Andheri (East),
Mumbai : 400 099.
AMSS DELHI 9643419638 kushvir.singh@imd.gov.in
Mr. Khushvir Singh, 1143824255
Sc-‘E’
AMSS CHENNAI
Mr. L. K. Rangarajan, 9840686693 aviationreturns@gmail.com Airport
Met."A" Meteorological
297
04422560790 office, ATS Complex,

Meenambakkam,
Chennai-27
The i/c of AMO
Chennai
N. M. Nathan, Sc-‘E’ 9444645020044
-22345388(O) email: nathan.imd@gmail.com
AMSS GUWAHATI
Ashish Kumar, Sc-‘C’ 8474062988 ashish.kumar85@imd.gov.in RMC, L.G.B.I Airport,
Guwahati - 781015
off No. 0361-2840243
AMSS Nagpur
Brajesh Kumar 9643963212
Kanaujjya, Sc-‘C’ 7122288544 brajesh.kanaujiya@imd.gov.in
13.3. Availability of data
As per WMO guidelines past 24 hours data is available in RTH/AMSS. Data is not supplied to any user directly from
RTH/AMSS. Real time Data is shared with all NHMS of WMO member countries.
13.3.1. VPN Circuits
Fifty Seven, IMD stations are connected with IPVPN connectivity speeds ranging from 512kbps to 10mbps. These VPN
circuits are connected with Synergie Systems at various out stations, Doppler Weather Radar Stations, AMSS Centres
and Regional Centres.
13.3.2. IVRS
India Meteorological Department has been rendering its services to the public in many sphere of their life by providing
weather related information/ forecast/ alert/ warnings including earthquake reports. In order to serve general public
in a better way, IVRS facility of IMD has been providing the weather services on telephone catering the weather
information of major cities in India successfully for the last fifteen years . Presently a centralized IVRS is catering the
weather information as well as air quality information of major cities. One can access current weather and forecast for
major Indian cities and air quality of some selected cities by dialing Toll free number 1800 220 161.
13.3.3. Internet Services
At present IMD HQ has two independent Internet leased links of 150 Mbps from different Internet service providers.
IMD is also connected to 1 Gbps NKN (National Knowledge Network) link of NIC for internet, data exchange within
Close User Group (CUG), Video conferencing &Telepresence services. The new upgraded LAN with latest state-of-the-
art technology has more than 1500 nodes to accommodate increased voluminous data/product flow interruptedly at
IMD HQ. In the new set up, DGM Building (MausamBhawan),Sat.Met. Building, Workshop, DDGM (UI) building, RMC
New Delhi Building, Trainee‟s Hostel and EREC Building connected under ring using new technology switches with 10
Gbps optical fibre backbone support to provide high availability of LAN as well as high volume of data flow.
298
Figure 3. Network Diagram of IMD, New Delhi
13.4. Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS)
India has been designated as an issuing authority under the GMDSS program for Meteorological Area VIII (N). This
covers the area of the Indian Ocean enclosed by the lines from Indo-Pakistan frontier in 23°45’N 68°E; 12°N 63°E,
thence to Cape Gardafui; the east African coast south to equator, thence to 95°E to 6°N, thence to the Myanmar
/ Thailand frontier in 10° N 98° 30’ E.
India Meteorological Department is transmitting daily two GMDSS bulletins for Met. Area VIII(N), one at 0900 UTC and
other at 1800 UTC. During Cyclone Season additional bulletins (4) are also being issued for GMDSS broadcast
depending on the requirement. GMDSS: INMARSAT (International Maritime Satellite Organisation) operates a
constellation of geo-stationary satellites designed to extend phone, fax and data communications all over the world.
Land Earth Station (LES) at Gaziabad.
299
13.5. World Information System (WIS)
The WMO Information system (WIS) is the single coordinated global infrastructure responsible for the
telecommunications and data management functions. It is the pillar of the WMO strategy for managing and moving
weather, climate and water information in the 21st century. WIS provides an integrated approach suitable for all
WMO Programmes to meet the requirements for routine collection and automated dissemination of observed data
and products, as well as data discovery, access and retrieval services for all weather, climate, water and related data
produced by centers and Member countries in the framework of any WMO Programme.
WIS is an enhanced information system capable of exchanging large data volumes, such as new ground- and satellite-
based systems, finer resolutions in numerical weather prediction and hydrological models and their
applications. These data and products must be available to National Hydrological and Meteorological Services, but
also national disaster authorities for more timely alerts where and when needed. WIS will be the vital data
communications backbone integrating the diverse real-time and non-real-time high priority data sets, regardless of
location.
Existing centres within WMO Member States that comply with the required WIS functions and technical specifications
will be designated as one of the three types of centres forming the core infrastructure of WIS:
Global Information System Centres (GISCs):
https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/WIS/centres_en.html
Data Collection or Production Centres (DCPCs): https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/WIS/centres_en.html
National Centres (NCs):

https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/WIS/centres_en.html
Figure 4. Diagram showing WIS core components and Information Exchange
• Procedure to Access WIS and fetch Data
WIS is configured to allow Self-Registration; the Register menu appears on the header of the main page of
url:http://www.wis.imd.gov.in
300
Figure 5. Data Portal of WIS/GISC New Delhi
13.6. On line Briefing System (OLBS) at Chennai & Delhi (Palam)
IMD being only authorized meteorological service provider provides the meteorological services to all the aviation
operators at all the major airports. Earlier the service was provided manually and switched to online services w.e.f.
2008 on test basis. As the service got well appreciation from Aviation operators, IMD started Online Meteorological
services through dedicated OLBS from AMO Palam and AMO Chennai since 2012-2013.
The URL to access the Aviation data and products are as follows
OLBS delhi: https://olbs.amssdelhi.gov.in/
OLBS Chennai: https://olbs.amsschennai.gov.in/
The user can register to access the system and IMD will approve the same after following formalities.
13.7. Warning System In India Meteorological Department
India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues warnings and alerts on high impact weather events such as Tropical
Cyclones, Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall etc. The warning procedure comprises of a 3-tier system, viz., warnings
and forecasts issued at the National, Regional and State levels by the National / Regional / State Weather Forecasting
Centres (NWFC/RWFC/SWFCs), Cyclone Warning Division at New Delhi, Area Cyclone Warning Centres (ACWCs) and
local Cyclone Warning Centres (CWCs), Flood Meteorological Offices (FMOs), Seismological Division at New Delhi etc.
Different warnings pertain to different stakeholders such as National and State level Disaster Management
Authorities, Civil Administrators, NGOs involved in disaster management, Ports, Hydrologists, Mariners and
Fishermen. The modes of dissemination of warnings vary from time to time depending on advances in the IT industry
and at present warnings are disseminated through email, fax, website etc. In addition to IMD websites, public
warnings are disseminated through the press, SMS, radio and television media. It also varies depending upon the type
of hazard and the stakeholder.
• Procedure for updating cityweather, nowcast and warning data
• Open the mausam.imd.gov.in website in your browser and click the database login tab in the footer section.
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• Fill the login details for the particular RMC or MC.
• After login the data for cityweather, nowcast and warning can be updated through the available options.
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• For updating cityweather data: click the cityweather tab and select any city from the list.
• Insert the data in the table for the selected city and update it.
• For updating warnings data: click the warnings tab and select any city from the list. Insert the data in the
table for the selected city and update it.
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13.8. Telecommunication Infrastructure
GTS links with Regional Telecommunication Hub (RTH) New Delhi consists of 18 international circuits. It manages
6Mbps IPVPN link with Tokyo, Moscow, Beijing, Toulouse, Exter and Offenbach; whereas Yangon, Oman, Colombo,
Male, Bhutan, Kathmandu, Cairo, Jeddah and Melbourne through 150 Mbps internet (at New Delhi end). Other
international links Bangkok, Dhaka and Karachi are operating at 64 Kbps leased line. Communication links established
at RTH New Delhi are shown in Fig.5.
Functioning as National Meteorological telecommunication centre (NMTC), India Meteorological Department

maintains its dedicated networks for exchange of meteorological data/ information with other centres. At present,
nationwide main communication link is IPVPN with 10Mbps at NMTC New Delhi and 512Kbps/1Mbps at various other
centres, Radar stations. 8Mbps leased link with Indian Air Force (IAF) and 2 Mbps link with Indian Navy (IN) has been
established to continuously exchange data. Also, 1Gbps NKN CUG link has been established with NCMRWF, IITM,
INCOIS and other institutes of MoES for information exchange.
Figure 6. Telecommunication Infrastructure of IMD
Meteorological data and processed products containing half hourly INSAT images, surface and upper air data,
aerodrome forecast, weather charts and model outputs etc. exchanged over GTS. A receive only Satellite Data
Dissemination System (SADIS) is in operation at New Delhi to receive aeronautical meteorological information from
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Centres which are routed to four International Airports of India for
National and International flight briefing and for providing data in GRIB/BUFR format for wind/temperature and
Significant weather charts.
13.9. Video-Conferencing Network
The HQs/RMCs/MCs have provided with Cloud based Desktop Videoconferencing licences from CISCO WebEx. Each
licence provides for creating two parallel VC rooms, each room having a limitation of 1000 participants. The
administrator of each licence can configure the VC schedules at their choice. List of licences is shown below:
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Figure 7. Web interface software accounts used for Video Conferencing
• Procedure for scheduling the VC:VC scheduling is done through the following url: https://www.webex.com/ by
logging in with required credentials.
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13.10. Website of IMD
The India meteorological department has mainly two Websites with URL http://www.mausam.imd.gov.in and
http://www.rsmc.imd.gov.in containing all the forecast and warning related static & dynamically updated
information.
All warnings related to cyclone, heat wave, cold wave are displayed in front page with detailed analysis of warnings.
IMD websites contain huge information for public awareness. All satellite imagery, Radar images, NWP products,
Nowcast imagery, Cyclone Warning etc. updated regularly in IMD webpage for pubic to give updated information at
regular intervals.
Table 3
Website Update Report
Types of Bulletin/Reports/Warnings Frequency of updation

Weather Information All India Weather Inference Thrice in a day
All India Weather Forecast Thrice in a day
All India Weather Warnings Once in a day
Weekly Weather Report weekly
Extended Range Outlook fortnightly
Marine Weather Bulletins Once in a day
Now cast Warnings 3 Hourly
T-Phi Grams Hourly
City Weather 3 Hourly
Specialized Forecasts Tourism Forecast Hourly
Highway Forecast Hourly
Mountain Weather Bulletin Once in a day
ChardhamYatra Twice in a day
ShriKailashMansarovarYatra Once in a day
ShriAmarnathJiYatra Twice in a day
Mata Vaishno Devi Yatra Twice in a day
Satellites Products Infrared/Visible/Water Vapor Half Hourly
Radar Products 25 Radars Every 10 Minutes
Cyclone (i)Depression – When felt necessary 3 Hourly
(ii)Deep Depression and Cyclone formation 3 Hourly
(iii) During Cyclone Landfall
Hourly
Miscellaneous Press Release as and when required
Conference/Workshop/Seminar
Tenders/RFI/EOI
Advertisements/Notices
Crowd sourcing
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• Crowd-sourcing
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has launched its crowdsourcing web interface and the link is available @
(https://city.imd.gov.in/citywx/crowd/enter_th_datag.php).The same is available mausam.imd.gov.in as a heading
'Public Observation".
13.11. EPBAX
IMD has an AIRTEL CENTREX system installed at MausamBhawan in different office/ sections in six main buildings, a
workshop and guest houses with in its campus and some limited telephone connections in IMD residential campus.
The system has 400 working extensions including direct dialing lines. The telephone numbers and email ids of senior
officers of IMD are given in Annexure-I.
13.12. FTP Server
The Information System and Services Division has ftp server to exchange the realtime meteorological data to the
users. The user can upload/download the data using the approved credentials.
The user can request access the data to the following email address rthnewdelhi4@gmail.com mentioning the details
requirements along with organization name ect. to get the credential for accessing the data.
13.13. ICITC
ICITC caters to the needs of training in IT, Meteorological Instruments and Telecommunications for HR develpment of
IMD officials.
A formal training course started in 1977 to train IMD personnel. In mid seventies, training at New Delhi for Upper Air
Instrumentation and Meteorological Telecommunication started. The WMO Executive Council at its thirty-eighth
session approved the designation of the training facilities of India Meteorological Department at New Delhi and Pune
as WMO Regional Meteorological Training Centre (RMTC) for the Regional Association II (Asia) & V in the year 1986.
Commitments
• Departmental commitment : To impart training at different levels to the IMD personnel including ab-initio
training to newly recruited departmental officers and staffs.
• Extra departmental/national commitment : To impart advanced instrumentation training to the officials of
other Govt of India Organizations.
• International commitment : To impart training at different levels to the operational Meteorologists of the
neighboring countries in RA-II & V region under WMO regional co-operation programme.
• Continuing Education and training programme (CET): Imparting summer/winter training to the Engineering
students time to time
• Faculty development : RTC New Delhi conducts different faculty development training programmes to update
their Knowledge, Skill and Attitude.
To fulfill the commitments, RTC organise following training courses:
• Regular Courses
• Level-I Course in IT & Meteorological Telecommunication (3 months duration)

• Intermediate Training Course in Meteorological Instrumentation and Information Systems (4 months
duration : one month self study & three month class room study)
• Advance Training Course in Meteorological Instrumentation and Information Systems (6 months duration :
one and half month self study & four month class room study)
• Semester – II of Meteorologist Grade – II (Sc. B) Instrument Training Course
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• Short Term Courses
1. Familiarization Course in IT & Meteorological Telecommunication Techniques (1 Month Duration)
2. Short Term Course For Mechanics / Radio Mechanics (3 Weeks Duration)
3. Short Term Course in Fundamentals of IT & PC Applications (1 Month Duration)
(i) RTC also organize outreach programme to communicate knowledge on various instruments used for meteorological
observation and communication cum-information purpose among different stake holders like school/college and
university students/trainees.
(ii) The e-Learning material for National as well as Foreign Trainees is easily accessible over IMD website in the
following link: https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/departmentalweb.php
13.14. Conclusion
The communication systems of IMD have given a thrust to achieve quick and reliable exchange of large volume of
almost all data types and related products. This is quite useful for forecaster, disaster manager and others. However,
responses/feedback on various dissemination systems need to be monitored continuously to provide better services
by adopting new technology, upgrading bandwidth as well as systems etc. It is clear from the above discussion that
the Meteorological communication system plays a vital role for forecasting and information dissemination to public/
authorities engaged in disaster mitigation to minimize the losses of lives and property.
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Post-Event Survey
Chapter 14
Post-Event Survey
14.1. Introduction
When a high impact severe weather event like cyclone, thunder squall and heavy rain causing flood affects a region, it
is essential to make a technical survey immediately after the event. The objective of this survey is to find out on the
spot technical details about the high impact weather event for better understanding of its characteristics, assessment
of its intensity and location and associated physical processes. Though there exists a well laid down procedure for
post-cyclone survey, there is no such procedure for post-thunderstorm, post thunder squall, post-tornado, post-flash
flood survey by India Meteorological Department. Here, the standard operation procedure (SOP) to be adopted by
IMD for the post-event survey of different significant weather phenomena is presented.
14.2. Identification of high impact weather event (HIWE) needing post-event survey
The post-event survey will be conducted for the following significant weather events in case they cause high impact.
(i) Land falling Cyclone

(ii) Severe thunderstorm / lightning leading to loss of life and property
(iii) Tornado leading to loss of life and property
(iv) Flash flood following cloud burst
14.3. Purpose of survey
The main purpose of a survey of the damage caused by the HIWE is to assess in greater detail than is possible with the
available synoptic observations and press reports. It is also aimed to find out actual track, intensity and other
characteristics of the HIWE and to evaluate the effectiveness of the warnings issued.
14.4. Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) for Post-Event survey
14.4.1. Assessment of damage
Whenever a high impact weather event (HIWE) as mentioned above causes considerable damage to life and property,
an officer from the concerned region should be sent on tour to visit the affected areas to assess the nature and extent
of the damage caused, both from the economic and scientific points of view. Tour programme of the officer
proceeding on tour should be initiated and approved immediately during the event or within 24 hrs of the occurrence
of the event telephonically/ by email/ through WhatsApp by the competent authority. The competent authority is the
concerned Head, Regional Meteorological Centre. The office of CRS Pune and NWFC New Delhi should be informed by
E-mail/WhatsApp about the tour. The touring officer should visit the crucial locations in the affected area, contact the
various State and Central Government officers and interview people to examine the characteristic of the event and
how effectively the warning system worked during the event. The officer has to submit the report to the concerned
Head, MC/RMC, Head NWFC and Head CRS Pune immediately after his return from tour.
14.4.1.1. Use of departmental transport/hiring of transport for damage survey
On occasions, when a HIWE caused considerable damage, public transport services may not be available immediately
to the touring officer to visit the affected areas or the public transport facilities are not extended in the intended areas
of visit. In such cases departmental transport will be used for damage survey. Whenever departmental transport is not
available, suitable hired transport will be used.
14.4.2. Contents of survey report
The touring officer should consider the following points while preparing the report:
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14.4.2.1. For Cyclone
(i) The track followed by the HIWE.

(ii) The ‘eye’ or calm centre and its characteristics.
(iii) Duration of the lull period.
(iv) Areas affected by gales/ squally winds and relative strength of winds in the different quadrants.
(v) Estimate of the maximum wind speed.
(vi) Time of commencement/cessation of severe local storm/ multiple local storms.
(vii) Recession of the sea.
(viii) Storm surges, based on tide gauge, landmarks etc.
(ix) Rainfall associated with the storm
14.4.2.2. For severe thunderstorm / lightning

(ii) Areas affected by gales/ squally winds/ lightning and relative strength of winds.
(iii) Estimate of the maximum wind speed/ lightning strikes (if available).
(iv) Time of commencement/cessation of the HIWE.
(v) Rainfall associated with the HIWE.
14.4.2.3. For tornado

(ii) Areas affected by the HIWE, and the relative strength of winds.
(iii) Estimate of the maximum wind speed.
(iv) Time of commencement/cessation of the HIWE.
(v) Rainfall associated with the HIWE.
14.4.2.4. For cloud burst
(i) Areas affected by the HIWE, and the relative strength of winds.
(ii) Time of commencement/cessation of the HIWE.
(iii) Rainfall associated with the HIWE.
(iv) Height of the maximum water level.
In addition to the above-mentioned points, the officer should consider the following points which are common for all
the HIWE:
(i) Comments from the recipients of the warnings about accuracy and timeliness of the warnings.
(ii) Suggestions and recommendations for the improvement of the warning system/ observational network, etc.
(iii) Recorded observations, if any from other organisations.
(iv) Photographs of HIWE, if any collected by any office/ individual.
Keeping the above in view, the touring officer should try to obtain and keep a record of such information which will
enable him to estimate, as quantitatively and objectively as possible, the above features associated with the HIWE.
14.5. Guidelines and instructions for Officers going on surveys of damage caused by HIWE
14.5.1. Knowledge of SOP
14.5.1.1. The officers nominated for survey should go through the SOP for post-event survey and reports of such past
surveys made earlier, to familiarise themselves with the work. The offices should also keep these touring officer’s
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Post-Event Survey
reports bound as permanent records as they contain valuable scientific data on events, collected with great effort,
which may be required in the future.
14.5.1.2. A pre-season workshop should be organised by NWFC for field officers on different events (annual). This
would help refreshing the procedure. A mechanism for experience sharing between RMCs on the post event surveys
could be included for learning experience.
14.5.1.3. Each RMC may identify the officials who are to work as the members of such Post-Event survey team with
alternates/ substitutes in case of unforeseen emergencies and training will be imparted to them for their actions, for
documentation etc.
14.5.2. Equipment
There are a few basic minimum items of equipment, an officer who goes on such survey tours should carry with him.
These are:
(i) A digital camera/mobile phone with charger to record pictures and videos.
(ii) A measuring tape, at least 20 m in length.
(iii) A magnetic compass
(iv) A GPS unit.
(v) Small plastic bottles to collect samples of water in the coastal belt to test for saline inundation in case of
cyclone.
(vi) A survey theodolite and pole (may be obtained from local PWD); and
(vii) A detailed map of area affected in the scale 1” = 16 miles (to be obtained from the State Government or survey
of India map available with IMD.) (As the maps for each district in the scale 1” = 16 miles are available with the
State Governments, it would be advantageous if the MOs/MCs/RMCs obtain the maps of all the coastal districts
pertaining to their centres and keep them ready so that the touring officers can take these maps with them
when they proceed on tour to the affected area.)
(viii) First-aid Kit
14.5.3. Guidelines for survey
14.5.3.1. Itinerary of tour
Concerned Head and the touring officer should first contact the State Government officials to find out the areas
affected and prepare the itinerary for the survey accordingly.
A formal letter/ email should be written by the concerned Head MC/RMC to State Relief Commissioner (SRC)/ DM
authorities to felicitate the post event survey. It would facilitate the involvement and participation of these agencies
in the most important activity of post-event survey. Also, the data and information collected by these agencies are to
be collected by the concerned MC/RMC.
14.5.3.2. Damage to be assessed in great detail
The touring officer must assess the damage in as great a detail as possible, as indicated below:
(a) Directions of bent poles : In the case of electric or telephone poles, the direction in which the pole was bent
(with the help of the magnetic compass), the total height of the pole and the height at which it was bent, the
diameter of the pole and whether it was solid or hollow and old or new. If it is feasible, he/she can obtain some
data relating to the material of which the pole is made, its weight, age etc. from the local DoT or PWD or other
such offices concerned.
(b) Direction of fallen tree : In the case of trees, such details as whether just branches were broken; whether the
whole tree was uprooted and in which direction the tree had fallen; a rough estimate of the diameter, height,
etc. and the name of the tree.
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(c) Building : In the case of damage to property like buildings, the details relating to the type of building, whether
it is a hut with mud walls etc. or pucca concrete building, the type of ceiling (thatched/ tin/ asbestos/ tiled/
concrete) and type and dimensions of the wall etc.
(d) Direction of wind : The direction of the wind over the area where a large number of trees have fallen or poles
bent, has to be determined from the general direction in which most of the trees have fallen or poles bent in
that area, making use of the magnetic compass.
(e) Height of water level : The height of the maximum water level from the ground, up to which inundation due to
the flash flood happened to be determined by making use of the tape. The height can be estimated from the
marks left by the water on trees and walls of buildings. Also, it can be estimated through interview with the
local people like knee deep water, water up to belly/neck etc.
(f) Casualties : The total number of casualties occurred and the exact cause should be documented through
interview with the local people. The nature of the place (i.e. topography, population density and vegetation)
also should be noted.
14.5.3.3. Height and extension of storm surge (in case of cyclone only)
In the areas in which there was inundation due to storm surge, detailed estimates of the height up to which the sea
water had come in different localities of a village or a group of villages should be obtained. The height can be
estimated from the marks left by the sea water on trees and walls of buildings. It should be remembered that the
purpose of this survey is also to get a profile of the water level as the surge advanced inland. For this purpose, the
distance up to which the water entered inland and the stretch along the coastal belt over which this phenomenon had
occurred should be ascertained. These data will enable in arriving at a clear picture of the storm surge profile.
Storm Surge = Total Water Level - Astronomical Tides - Waves - Freshwater Input
One has to use information of time of occurrence, place of occurrence, datum point of sea land and astronomical tide
at that point of time. Based on all these one has to calculate the storm surge height in a systematic procedure.
14.5.3.4. Photographs/video to aid such survey
All items of damage which are vital for an assessment of the track and intensity of the HIWE should be photographed
and videographed clearly to bring out the particular effect which is proposed to be illustrated, e.g. bending of
telephone, telegraph or electric pole, uprooting of trees, tiles blown off and their distribution in the neighbourhood,
watermarks on trees, buildings etc.
14.5.3.5. Spare Camera/Smart Phone
Whenever possible a spare camera/smart phone with charger and power bank should be carried in order not to miss
this unique opportunity of getting vital data. Photographs/videos of damage and other details taken by local
photographers or newspaper agencies should also be obtained to supplement those taken by the touring officer.
14.5.3.6. Interviewing local people who had experienced the severe weather phenomenon
Cross section of people should be interviewed. The local people who had experienced the ravages of the HIWE are the
best judges of the happenings and the severity of the phenomenon and no opportunity should be missed to interview
them. The touring officer should select a cross-section of the people who will be in a position to give reliable and
useful information and are normally geared up to the routine activities in the locality, e.g. Teachers, Village
Development Officers, Panchayat Officials, Port Officers, Fishermen, Govt. officers etc. Questions should be framed in
such a manner that the answers will lead us to make an estimate of the time of commencement of the weather
phenomenon such as heavy rainfall, tidal wave, gales/squall, calm centre etc., an estimate of the intensity of the
phenomenon and any special effects noticed or felt by the persons concerned (e.g. change in humidity & wind,
acoustics, colour of sky, shape of cloud, movement of cloud, frequency of thunder, lightning, type and size of hail, if
any and time of occurrence etc in case of tornado/ thunderstorm, commencement of rain and type of rain, duration
and cessation of rain in case of cloud burst).
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Post-Event Survey
14.5.3.7. Sample Questions
A sample questionnaire has to be prepared in English, Hindi and in the local language before visiting the place. The
sample questionnaires for cyclone, thunderstorm, cloud burst and tornado are given in Annexure (I-IV).
14.5.3.8. Track of the Event
One of the most important things that has to result from such a survey of areas affected by a cyclonic storm is a
detailed track of the storm. Therefore, we have to assess where the eye of the storm passed. For this purpose,
assessment of the direction of the fall of trees on either side of the track will be very vital and photographic evidence
of this must be carefully registered. People in the area over which the eye of the storm might have passed should be
asked whether they experienced any clear weather or relatively calm wind for a short period followed by gales and
severe weather. If so, the time of commencement and cessation of the calm period may be ascertained.
In case of severe thunderstorm/ lightning/ thunder squall/ cloudburst, the track should be prepared based on the
assessment of wind direction and interview with cross section of people.
14.5.3.9. Ring of maximum winds and relative strength in different quadrants (in case of cyclone only)
The second important parameter to be assessed is the ring of maximum winds, 28 knots or more, 34 knots or more,
50 knots or more and 64 knots or more around the centre in different quadrants. For this purpose, it is important to
notice the severity of the damage in order to assess the wind strength over a broad belt on either side of the track of
the storm utilizing Beaufort scale.
14.5.3.10. Rainfall
Another important information to be collected by the touring officer is the rainfall recorded at the rain gauges which
are available in the localities surveyed, in case it is not available in real-time.
14.5.3.11. Copies of photographic records etc.
The touring officer should also obtain copies of important autographic records like barogram, anemogram or
hyetogram available from the nearest observatory. He/she may also scrutinise the observational records with
reference to the local damage observed to see whether the observations recorded and reported during the event
period were reliable and consistent.
14.5.3.12. Detailed sketch of damage and derived parameters
It is essential that on the basis of the survey carried out, the following maps / sketches should be prepared:
(a) A map or diagram showing the places visited by the touring officer and the route followed by him.
(b) A map showing the best track of the cyclone/thunder storm/tornado/cloud burst over land area based on the
information collected. In the same map, the maximum wind speed estimated at the different places visited
should be plotted (with the direction of the wind and time of occurrence wherever possible).
(c) A map showing the areas affected by storm surge and the height of the surge at different places along the
coastal belt in case of cyclone.
The N-S line should be clearly marked on the above sketches / maps. The above maps may be prepared on the scale of
highest available resolution.
14.5.3.13. Contacting Warnees: Working of the warning system
(a) Receipt of warnings by warnees
The warnees (Collectors and other Govt officials in the affected area (BDO, Tehsildar, Police station), Officials of PWD,
Railways, DoT, Ports, Fisheries etc.) to whom warnings were issued in connection with the storm have to be contacted
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by the touring officer to find out whether the warnings were received by them in time and whether they were useful.
He should also ascertain how they were utilised. In the case of serially numbered warnings, he should see whether the
warnings were received serially. The remarks of the officials concerned on the reception of Four Stage Warnings, in
case of cyclone, heavy Rainfall through the broadcasts of AIR and short to medium range forecast and nowcast in case
of thunderstorm have to be obtained. In the case of Port Officers and designated/registered warnees the forms in
which they have to fill the details regarding receipt and action taken on warnings may be collected for taking suitable
action with the DoT officials in cases of non-receipt / late receipt of warnings by the warnees.
The sample questionnaire is given in Annexure-V for DM officers and VI for port-authorities.
(b) Suggestions for improvements
He/she should also elicit suggestions from the warnees for the improvement of the warning system and make suitable
recommendations in his/her report. Similarly any deficiencies in the observational organisation noticed should also be
pointed out by him/her with suggestions for remedial measures.
(c) Meeting the AIR/Door Darshan authorities and other Media personnel
If there is an AIR station/Door Darshan station in the area covered by the tour, he/she should also visit the AIR
station/Door Darshan station and ascertain from the authorities whether the bulletins for broadcast were received by
them in time and according to the sequence of the serial numbers and whether they were broadcast immediately.
He/she should also ascertain whether the AIR station/Door Darshan station extended the transmission hours to
broadcast the bulletins received outside the scheduled transmission hours and if not the reason for not extending the
transmission hours.
If possible, the touring party will contact the local media reporters/personnel who have covered the event, during
their tour and try to find out the severity of the event. The touring party should also obtain evidence in the form of
footage of recordings by the electronic media and videos. These should form a part of report of the touring
officer/party.
(d) Working knowledge of local language
As the touring officer has to gather information from the local people in addition to the public officials, it is preferable
that he/she has a working knowledge of the local language of the HIWE affected area. In the case of a HIWE which
affects more than one meteorological region, an officer from each region must be deputed on tour and each visiting
officer will restrict his/her study, survey etc. to his/her region only. Based on the inputs of these officials, a final
consolidated report shall be prepared by the officer from the region which was the most affected by the HIWE.
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Annexure-I
(The sample questions for Cyclone)
i) When did you come to know about this cyclone?

ii) When did wind started to increase?
iii) When did rainfall started?
iv) What was the estimated wind speed you have noticed?
v) How long did gale wind continued?
vi) When did you get IMD forecast and warning for this cyclone?
vii) Have you ever noticed the sudden marked changes of weather phenomenon?
viii) How did direction of wind changed?
ix) When (date and time) did you first notice the water entering your village?
x) Could you tell us when water reached its maximum height?
xi) What is your estimate of the maximum height?
xii) How much damage has occurred in your area?
xiii) Is there any death of human/animal reported?
xiv) What was the main reason for the casualties occurred?
Annexure-II
(The sample questions for Severe Thunderstorm)
i) What was the colour of the sky before the incident and how did it change with gradual appearance of the
cloud?
ii) What was the shape and size of the cloud in different period?
iii) What was the location and movement of the thunder cloud?
iv) When did the rain start? How does the intensity of rain increased or decreased?
v) Was there any incident of hail?
vi) Have you heard any thunder?
vii) Have you seen any cloud to ground lightning strike?
viii) How was the wind before the incident? How did it change over the period of time (in direction and speed)?
It will help to assess the wind speed based on BF scale.
ix) What was the time of occurrence and duration of the event? What was its direction of movement?
x) How much damage has occurred in your area?
xi) Was there any casualty?
xii) What was the main reason for casualties (storm/ lightning/heavy rain)?
xiii) Whether you received warning? If so, whether it was timely (early/ delayed receipt) and accurate (correct/
partially correct, wrong). What was the source of warning?
xiv) Do you have any suggestion to improve warning?
xv)
Annexure-III
(The sample questions for Tornado)
i) What was the colour of the sky before the incident and how did it change with gradual appearance of the
cloud?
ii) What was the shape and size of the cloud in different period?
iii) What was the location and movement of the thunder cloud?
iv) How was the wind before the incident? How did it change over the period of time (in direction and speed)?
(It will help to assess the wind speed based on BF scale.)
v) What was the time of occurrence and duration of the event? What was its direction of movement?
vi) Have you seen any waterspout?
vii) Have you noticed any lifting of animate/inanimate objects?
viii) How much damage has occurred in your area?
ix) Was there any casualty?
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Annexure-IV
(The sample questions for Cloud Burst)
i) What was the colour of the sky before the incident?

ii) Whether it was all of a sudden or you had apprehended beforehand?
iii) What was the duration of rain?
iv) Can you estimate the intensity of rain?
v) Is there any report of land slide/mud slide/flash flood?
vi) What is the area of inundation and extent of damage?
vii) Was there any casualty?
viii) Have you seen/heard such incident like this earlier? If so, what is the tentative time period?
ix) Do you received any warning of heavy rainfall/extreme weather condition?
Annexure-V
The touring officer should collect the following information from DM authoritieson the working of the warning
system.
i) Were the communication links maintained till the receipt of the last warnings?
ii) Was any alternate channel used?
iii) Did the warnee make any further dissemination of warnings to his lower formations and if so when, to
what areas and how?
iv) What was the general response to these warnings from the public?
v) What were the preventive action taken such as,
 evacuation of people from low-lying areas to places of safety (in case of cyclone),
 closing down of schools, colleges and public offices; and
 preventing fishermen from going out into the sea, etc (in case of cyclone)
Annexure-VI
In the event of the storm affecting a port itself, the touring officer should meet the port Officer and ascertain how the
warning system had functioned during the storm. He/she should particularly enquire.
i) whether the communication links with the storm warning centre were maintained till the issue of the
last warning (i.e. to lower the signal)
ii) if not, what action was taken by him.
iii) Whether, the warnings received by the port were put to other use than hoisting or replacing the signals.
iv) Any other feedback
Information available with the Port Officer relating to the damage to the port installations and to ships, country crafts,
ferry boats etc. in the port areas or in coastal waters near the port should be collected and included in the report.
316
Forecast Verification
Chapter 15
FORECAST VERIFICATION
15.1. Introduction
Weather plays an important role in almost all aspects of life on earth. Hence, its accurate and timely forecasting has
got wide implications ranging from increasing the agricultural production to reducing the damage to life and property.
Currently, forecasting services are rendered to farmers, fishermen, shipping, air navigation etc., apart from the
general public. The main objective is to forewarn people so as to reduce death and damage from impending natural
disasters like floods, droughts, cyclonic storms and other extreme weather.
Forecast verification is the process of assessing the quality of a forecast. The forecast is compared, or verified, against
a corresponding observation of what actually occurred, or some good estimate of the true state of atmosphere, (so
that it can believed to a reasonable accuracy).
The three most important reasons to verify forecasts are:
i) To monitor forecast quality - how accurate are the forecasts are to ascertain users that to which extent these
can be believed & how are these improving over time.
ii) To improve forecast quality - the first step towards getting better knowledge on the precise reasons of wrong
forecast.
iii) To compare the quality of different forecast systems - to what extent does one forecast system give better
forecasts than another, and in what ways that system is better?
Allan Murphy, a pioneer in the field of forecast verification, wrote an essay on what makes a forecast "good" (Murphy,
1993). He distinguished three types of "goodness":
(i) Consistency - The degree to which the forecast corresponds to the forecaster's best judgement about the
situation, based upon his/her knowledge base
(ii) Quality - the degree to which the forecast corresponds to what actually happened
(iii) Value - the degree to which the forecast helps the decision makers to realize its importance.
Since we're interested in forecast verification, let's look a bit closer at the forecast quality. Murphy described nine
aspects (called "attributes") that contribute to the quality of a forecast. These include:
(i) Bias - The correspondence between the mean forecast and mean observation.
(ii) Skill - The relative accuracy of the forecast over some reference forecast. The reference forecast is generally an
unskilled forecast such as random chance, persistence (defined as the most recent set of observations,
"persistence" implies no change in condition), or climatology. Skill refers to the increase in accuracy due purely
to the improvement of the forecast system. A typical weather forecast may be more accurate simply because
that weather is easier to forecast. Hence, skill gives a better judgement of the quality of forecast.
Considering the importance of forecast verification, the subject of verification of forecasts was discussed by the
Director’s Conference – October 1955 where it was agreed that the initial checking of all forecasts should be done at
the issuing centres. Since then, the forecast verification method has undergone many changes. Here the standard
operation procedure for forecast verification by various forecasting offices is presented.
15.2. Types of forecast and forecast verification methods
Various types of forecast and their verification methods are given in Table 15.1 and 15.2.
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Table 15.1.
Nature of Forecast and Verification Methods
Specificity of Forecast Example (s) Verification Methods

Dichotomous (Yes/No) Occurrence of Fog Visual, dichotomous,
probabilistic, spatial, ensemble
Multi-category Cold, Normal or warm Visual, probabilistic, spatial,
conditions ensemble, multi category
Continuous Maximum temperature Visual, continuous, probabilistic,
spatial, ensemble,
Object or event-oriented Tropical cyclone motion and Visual, dichotomous multi
intensity category, continuous,
probabilistic, spatial
Table 15.2.
Specificity of Forecast and Verification Methods
Nature of forecast Example (s) Verification Methods

Deterministic (non- Quantitative precipitation Visual, dichotomous, multi-
probabilistic) forecast category, continuous spatial
Probabilistic Probability of precipitation, Visual, probabilistic,
ensemble forecast ensemble
Qualitative (worded) 5-day outlook Visual, dichotomous, multi
category
Time series Daily maximum temperature Visual, dichotomous ,
forecasts for a city multi category, continous,
probabilistic
Spatial distribution Map of geopotential height, Visual, dichotomous,
rainfall chart multicategory, continuous,
probabilistic, spatial, ensemble
Pooled space and time Monthly average global Dichotomous, multicategory,
temperature anomaly continuous, probabilistic,
ensemble
15.2.1. Methods for dichotomous (yes/no) forecasts
A dichotomous forecast says, "yes, an event will happen", or "no, the event will not happen". Rain and fog prediction
are common examples of yes/no forecasts. For some applications a threshold may be specified to separate "yes" and
"no", for example, winds greater than 50 knots.
(i) To verify this type of forecast we start with a contingency table that shows the frequency of "yes" and "no"
forecasts and occurrences. The four combinations of forecasts (yes or no) and observations (yes or no), called the joint
distribution, are:
a) hit - event forecast to occur, and did occur

b) miss - event forecast not to occur, but did occur
c) false alarm - event forecast to occur, but did not occur
d) correct negative - event forecast not to occur, and did not occur
(ii) The total numbers of observed and forecast occurrences and non-occurences are given on the lower and right
sides of the forecast contingency table, and are called the marginal distribution.
318
15.2.2. Forecasts issued by IMD
Depending on the spatial and temporal scales of atmospheric systems and the details of the accuracy desired, the
weather forecasts are divided into the following categories.
(i) Nowcasting - in which the details about the current weather and forecasts upto a few hours ahead are given.
(ii) Short range forecasts (1 to 3 days) - in which the weather (mainly rainfall) in each successive 24 hr intervals may
be predicted upto 3 days. This forecast range is mainly concerned with the weather systems observed in the latest
weather charts, although generation of new systems is also considered.
(iii) Medium range forecasts (4 to 10 days) – Average weather conditions and the weather on each day may be
prescribed with progressively lesser details and accuracy than that for short range forecasts. The forecaster has to be
more dependent on NWP products for issuing medium range forecasts.
(iv) Long range /Extended Range forecasts (more than 10 days to a season).
There is no rigid definition for Long Range Forecasting, which may range from a monthly to a seasonal forecast.
The responsibility of issuing forecasts, bulletins and warnings by various met. Offices differ widely. The ACWCs and
CWCs involved in the cyclone warning work have an additional set of bulletins and forecasts to be issued by them,
which are elaborately described in Chapter 9 of the document, ‘Cyclone Warning in India’ of Regional Specialised
Meteorological Centre (RSMC), New Delhi, viz., ‘Bulletins and Warnings’. Similarly, those met. offices attached to the
aerodromes are to follow an entirely different routine of Bulletins and Warnings to ensure the safety, regularity and
efficiency of air navigation, the details of which are readily available in the SOP on ‘Cyclone Warning in India’ Pls see
link: http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/pdf/sop.pdf) which is being updated every year.
The forecasting responsibilities of all other forecasting offices viz. Meteorological Centre (MC), Regional Weather
Forecasting Centre (RWFC) and NWFC, New Delhi, are also well defined and differ from one another.
15.3. General Forecasting Organisation
The Organization for providing different types of non-aviation forecasts and warnings is given in the Table 15.3.
319
Table 15.3
General forecasting organisation
S. No. Category/Meteorological offices Details of service User interest

issuing weather forecasting
1. Marine RSMC New Delhi Tropical Weather outlooks and Countries in the
tropical cyclone advisories WMO/ESCAP panel
region bordering the
Bay of Bengal and the
Arabian Sea
Cyclone Warning Division, New Delhi, 1. Forecasts for Bay of Bengal and Ships, Disaster
Arabian Sea, Disaster managers at Management,
Cyclone Warning centres at Kolkata national level. General public, fishermen, General
(Alipore), Mumbai (Colaba), Chennai press and electronic media public
(Nungambakam), Ahmedabad, 2.Coastal forecast Ships, Govt. Depts.,
Bhubaneshwar, Vishakapatnam and 3.Cyclone Warnings Maritime State and
Thiruvanthapuram (7) 4.Port Warnings Public ports
Cyclone Warning Centre at Mumbai, Fleet forecast twice a day, Indian Navy
Kolkata, Marine forecast division, frequency of bulletins increases to
DGM Office, New Delhi four during tropical storm period
over north Indian Ocean
Global maritime Distress and safety Bulletins twice a day are issued All ships
system (GMDSS), ACWCs Mumbai, for Met. Area VIII N for Arabian
Kolkata and, Marine forecast division, sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian
DGM Office, New Delhi. INOSHAC, Ocean.
Pune To north of Equator, the
frequency increases to six during
tropical storm period
2. Fisheries Cyclone Warning centres at Kolkata (i) Adverse weather along coast, (i) Fishing craft
(Alipore), Mumbai (Colaba), four times daily (including nil through A.I.R
Chennai (Nungambakam), warnings). (ii) Fisheries
Ahmedabad, Bhubaneshwar, (ii) Cyclone warnings
Vishakapatnam and
Thiruvanthapuram (7) (6)
3. (a)Regional Met Centres / (i) Farmer’s weather bulletins Message for farmer’s
Agriculture Met.centres at Ahmedabad, (two bulletins are issued daily broadcast from A.I.R.
Bangalore, Mumbai, Bhubaneshwar, during all seasons) stations in local
Kolkata, Guwahati, Hyderabad, (ii) Agricultural advisory message languages
Jaipur, Lucknow, Chennai, Nagpur,
Bhopal, New Delhi. Patna, Srinagar,
Thiruvanthapuram and
Chandigarh (17)
(b)Meteorological offices at Agromet Advisory service Advisories for farmers
Ahmedabad, Amravathi, Bangalore, bulletins(weekly/biweekly) broadcast/telecast in
Bhopal, Goa, Bhubaneshwar, Kolkata, local languages
Guwahati, Hyderabad, Jaipur, through A.I.R/
Lucknow, Chennai, Pune, Deharadun Doordarshan
New Delhi. Patna, Ranchi, Srinagar,
Thiruvanthapuram and Chandigarh,
Simla, Agartala, Gangtok and Raipur.
4. Floods Agra, Ahmedabad, Asansol, (i) Quantitative Precipitation Water resources flood
Bangalore, Bhubaneaswar, Chennai, forecasts forecasting
Guwahati, Hyderabad, Jalpaiguri, (ii) Prevailing synoptic situations Division of CWC (Total
Lucknow, New Delhi, Patna and (iii) Heavy rainfall warnings No. 19)
Srinagar (13) (iv) Realised average precipitation
320
for each sub-basin during past

12/24 hours.
(i) Point rainfall data of
selected stations
5. General Ahmedabad, Agartala, Amaravati, (i) District and subdivision wise Public, Newspapers,
Forecasting Shilong, Bangalore, Bhopal, Goa, forecasts for one or more AIR and Govt. officials
Chandigarh, Bhubaneshwar, Kolkata, states for next five days. about 1500 officials
Guwahati, Hyderabad, Bhopal, Jaipur, (ii) Local forecasts for capital registered with
Lucknow, Chennai, Deharadun, New cities. different offices
Delhi, Patna, Srinagar, (iii) Multihazard Warning against
Thiruvanthapuram and Chandigarh, adverse weather.
Nagpur, Raipur, Shimla, Chennai. (iv) City Forecast
Mumbai, Itanagar (v) Tourist Forecast
(vi) Ferry Forecast (Wherever
issued)
(vii) ERF
6. Special RMC New Delhi (i)Weather forecast is provided 3
events times daily to state Govt.
RMC Guwahati authorities to regulate Amar
Nathji Yatra during 40 days
period.
(ii)Weather forecast is provided to

govt.to regulate kailash
Mansarovar Yatra during the
three-month period.
(i) Weather forecast

information is provided on IVRS
by dialling Toll free NO. 1600-
180-1717 from Met. Office,
Safdarjung for 200 important
cities
7. Planning (a) Forecasts for seasonal (June to
September) rainfall over four
broad rainfall homogeneous
regions of india viz. Northwest
india, Northeast India and Central
India and South Peninsula issued
by the end of June/first week of
July
(b) Forecast for July rainfall over Govt. officials Public
the country as a whole issued by and Media.
the end of June/first week of July.
(c) Forecast for northeast
monsoon season (Oct to Dec) Govt. officials
rainfall over southern peninsula
issued in the first week of Oct.
(d) Forecast for rabi season
(October to March) rainfall over
Northwest India issued in the first
week of October.
(e) Forecast for winter season
(January-March) precipitation
issued in the first week of January
Table 15.4. Lists the Forecasting Centres responsible for issuing of forecast for different region
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Table 15.4.
List of Forecasting Offices of IMD
Forecasting Office Forecast Region

RWFC, Guwahati 1. Arunachal Pradesh
2. Assam
3. Nagaland
4. Manipur
5. Mizoram
MC, Agartala 6. Tripura
MC, Shilong 7. Meghalaya
MC, Gangtok 8. Sikkim
9. Andaman & Nicobar Islands
10. West Bengal
MC/CWC Bhubaneswar 11. Orissa
MC Ranchi 12. Jharkhand
MC Patna 13. Bihar
RWFC, New Delhi 14. Delhi
MC Lucknow 15. Uttar Pradesh
MC Dehradun 16. Uttarakhand
MC Chandigarh 17. Haryana
18. Punjab
19. Chandigarh
MC Simla 20. Himachal Pradesh
MC Srinagar 21. Jammu & Kashmir
MC Jaipur 22. Rajasthan
MC Bhopal 23. Madhya Pradesh
MC/CWC Ahmedabad 24.Gujarat
25.Daman & Diu
RWFC Mumbai 26. Maharashtra excluding Vidarbha
MC, Goa 27. Goa
RWFC Nagpur 28.Vidharba
MC Raipur 29.Chattisgargh
MC Amravathi 30.Coastal Andhra Pradesh
MC Hyderabad 31.Telengana
32.Rayalseema
RWFC Chennai 33.Tamil Nadu
34. Puducherry
MC Bangalore 35. Karnataka
MC/CWC Thiruvananthapuram 36.Kerala
37. Lakshadweep
322
15.4. Current status of verification
A need had been felt for quite sometime to make the forecast verification be made more quantitative, incorporating
various skill scores. To meet this requirement, a sub-committee was constituted by AMR-2007. The sub-committee
formulated a set of procedures for assessing the forecast performance in terms of various skill scores along with
schedule of issuance of local forecast which has been accepted by the Annual Monsoon Review meeting-2008. The
present verification is being done according to the procedures given in forecasting circular 01/2008.
15.5. SOP
(i) The general forecasts / local forecasts are issued by all MC / RWFCs.
(ii) These forecasts / local forecasts will be verified at their respective centres and the results will be sent to NWFC,
New Delhi on weekly basis.
(iii) NWFC, New Delhi will monitor the receipt/non-receipt of results of general forecasts / forecasts from all centres
and prepare the weather forecast verification report.
15.6. Verification of Local Forecast
An area of 50 km radius around a city will be used for verification of local forecast. Maximum/Minimum temperatures
and other elements are forecast in the local forecast. Local forecast issued, based on 0300 UTC charts is verified with
the observed maximum/minimum temperature and other parameters of the next day. For example, local forecast
issued on 10th for maximum and minimum temperature and other elements is verified with the minimum
temperature attained on 11th morning and maximum temperature attained on 11th afternoon and other elements
realised on 11th. Local forecast issued in the night for maximum/minimum temperature and other elements is verified
with the maximum temperature and other elements realised on the next day and the minimum temperature for the
next to next day. For example: verification of local forecast for maximum/minimum temperature and other elements
th th
issued on 10 is verified with maximum temperature and other elements realised on 11 and minimum temperature
realised on 12th forenoon. All the forecasting offices (RWFCs and MCs through RWFCs) will send the verification the
forecasts based on 0300 UTC and 1200 UTC charts to the office of the Climate Research and Services (CR & S), IMD,
Pune on weekly basis.
In local forecast, whenever any weather phenomenon is expected, its intensity, frequency and time of occurrence is
indicated. In the absence of a weather phenomenon, the local forecast describes anticipated sky conditions. The other
parameters for which the local forecast issued include, maximum temperature and / or minimum temperature,
rainfall, wind and special phenomenon. Detailed instructions for issuing local forecast for different parameters are
given below.
Temperature
Information on maximum temperature will be indicated during April to June (till onset of monsoon) or minimum
temperature during the period November to February and both maximum and minimum during March and October
(after withdrawal of monsoon). Temperature description need not normally be given during monsoons (southwest
and northeast), but on occasions when due to subdued monsoon, the maximum and minimum temperatures deviate
much from normal, temperature description may be given. However, local forecast for maximum temperature during
winter can also be indicated in addition to minimum temperature if forecasters feel that such a forecast will help the
o
users. For example, in Delhi there are some days during December when minimum temperature over Delhi is 8 C and
o
maximum temperature is between 12 and 15 C. In such situations forecast for maximum temperature is equally
important. Similarly, during summer if forecasters feel that minimum temperature is important, local forecast for
minimum temperature during summer may be issued in addition to local forecasts for maximum temperature. As the
public is interested to know about the fluctuations in temperature in summer or winter, the temperature trends, viz.,
slight fall / rise, significant fall / rise etc may be indicated in local forecast. The terms day (night) temperature and
maximum (minimum) temperature are to be used in the context described below.
323
o
At present the change in maximum temperature is forecast in five categories; namely, No large change (-1.5 C to
o o o
+1.5 C) appreciable rise or fall (±2.1 to 4 C), marked rise or fall (±4.1 C and above). Keeping the forecast procedure
same, the forecast for these categories may be described as given below.
Table 15.5 (a).
Terminology used in maximum and minimum temperature forecast
Forecast for maximum temperature Forecast to be issued

following earlier procedure
o o 0
No Large Change (-2 to +2 C) Maximum temperature will be around T ± 2 C.
(where T indicates the today’s maximum
temperature in degrees Celsius).
o o
Appreciable rise/ fall (2.1 to 4 C) Significant Rise/ Fall in day temperature and
maximum temperature will be around (T ±2.1 to
o
4 C).
o
Marked rise/ fall ( 4.1 C and above) Marked Rise/ Fall in day temperature and maximum
o
temperature will be around T± 4.1 C or more.
Reference : Forecasting Circular No. 5/2015 (3.7)
Table-15.5 (b)
Sample Temperature verification table for the reference
Minimum Temperature July -2020 Station: x

Parameter Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5
Absolute Error 1.022 1.112 1.345 1.248 1.7
RMSE 1.290 1.412 1.585 1.482 2.030
Frequency of <=1.0 19 18 12 12 10
error within range >1.0 &<=2.0 9 8 13 16 11
>2.0 &<=3.0 3 5 6 3 7
>3.0 0 0 0 0 3
Percentage <=1.0 61 58 39 39 32
>1.0 &<=2.0 29 26 42 52 35
>2.0 &<=3.0 10 16 19 10 23
>3.0 0 0 0 0 10
Rainfall
The terminology used for indicating rainfall intensity will be as given in Table 15.6.
Table 15.6.
Rainfall terminologies
Rainfall amount in mms Plotted on charts as (in Descriptive term used

equivalent cm)
0.0 No rain
Trace-2.4 … Very light rain
2.5-7.5 -
7.6-15.5 1 Light rain
15.6-24.4 2
24.5-35.5 3
324
35.6-44.4 4 Moderate Rain

44.5-55.5 5
55.6-64.4 6
64.5-75.5 7 Heavy Rain
75.6-84.4 8
84.5-95.5 9
95.6-104.4 10
104.5-115.5 11
115.6-124.4 12
124.5-135.5 13
135.6-144.4 14
144.5-155.5 15
155.6-164.4 16 Very heavy rain
164.5-175.5 17
175.6-184.4 18
184.5-195.5 19
195.6-204.4 20
>204.5 21 or more Extremely Heavy rain
When the amount is a value near about the highest recorded rainfall Exceptionally Heavy rain
at or near the station for the month or season. However, this term will
be used only when the actual rainfall amount exceeds 12 cm.
Reference : Forecasting Circular No. 5/2015 (3.7)
15.6.1. Issue of local forecast
In 24 hours, the local forecast is issued 4 times. The first local forecast is issued in the early morning at about 0700 hrs
IST based on 2100 and 0000 hrs UTC charts. The second local forecast is issued at about noontime everyday based on
0300 UTC charts. This is published in the Daily Weather Summaries, Regional Weather Summaries. This is given to the
Public, Press and all the users. The third local forecast is issued at about 1730 hrs IST based on 0900 hrs UTC charts.
The fourth Local forecast is issued at about 2100 hrs IST based on 1200 UTC charts. This is again issued to the users, All
India Radio and the press.
15.6.2. Format for issuing local forecast
In local forecast, Maximum/Minimum temperature (depending upon the month) and other parameters like clouds,
rainfall etc may be indicated as given above. The forecasters can use his / her discretion and ingenuity to frame the
language of the forecast but should ensure that all features of the local forecast are properly represented. However,
in respect of maximum/minimum temperature the following format should be used. For example
i)Local forecast issued at noontime on Sunday, the 26th March, 2000 based on 0300 hrs UTC charts “Mainly clear
o o
skies, Maximum and Minimum temperatures will be around 39 C and 20 C respectively on Monday” or “Mainly
o o
clear skies; maximum and minimum temperatures will be around 39 C and 20 C respectively” (This means that
o
minimum temperature likely to be realized on Monday early morning will be 20 C and Maximum temperature likely
o
to be realized on Monday afternoon will be 39 C ).
ii)Local forecast issued at 1730 hrs IST on Sunday, the 26th March 2000 based on 0900 hrs UTC charts. Same as given
above in (I).
iii)Local forecast issued at 2100 hrs IST on Sunday, the 26th March 2000 based on 1200 hrs UTC charts.
o
“Mainly clear skies; Maximum temperature will be around 39 C on Monday, and Minimum temperature will be
o
around 20 C on Tuesday” or “Mainly clear skies; Maximum temperature on Monday and minimum temperature on
o o
Tuesday will be around 39 C and 20 C respectively”.
iv) Local forecast issued at 0700 hrs IST on Monday the 27th March based on 2100 and 0000 hrs UTC charts.
325
o o
“Mainly clear skies; Maximum temperature will be around 39 C on Monday and minimum will be around 20 C on
o o
Tuesday” or “Mainly clear skies; maximum and minimum temperatures will be around 39 C and 20 C respectively”.
The local forecast should be verified in terms of the following three parameters:
(i) Temperature
The forecasts for maximum and minimum temperature will be verified by calculating absolute error, Root Mean
Square Error (RMSE) frequency and percentage of error within the range (Pls refer, Table 15.5 b). The temperature
forecast issued based on 0300 UTC charts, for communication to Headquarters for the display in the IMD, New Delhi
website and forecast based on 1200 UTC charts, which is to be communicated to the press, be considered for
verification. The verification may be carried out separately for 24 hrs. and 48 hrs. forecasts.
(ii) Rainfall
Rainfall verification will be made in terms of its occurrence/non-occurrence (yes/no) using 2 × 2 Contingency table and
computing various skill scores as given in Table 15.7)
(iii) Significant/ Special weather events
Forecasts of Fog, thunderstorm, dust storm, hail storm, haze, mist, smog, heat wave, cold wave, hot day, cold day,
squall, heavy rain and sky conditions will be verified based on the 2 × 2 Contingency table and computing various skill
scores as given in Table 15.7). Fog forecast verification for different categories viz, light, moderate, dense and very
dense will be verified. Nowcast of the weather event based on its intensity will be verified using dichotomous
verification shown in Table 15.7.
Also, in this connection, in order to bring about uniformity, the forecasts for IMD website, WMO website and that for
IVRS need to be disseminated by 1130 hrs IST.
The warning for heavy, very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall, cold wave, heat wave etc. also be verified using the
above 2 × 2 Contingency table (Wilks, 1995):
Table 15.7.
Deterministic forecast
Observed
Forecast
Yes No Total
Yes Hits False alarms Forecast yes
Correct
No misses Forecast no
negatives
Observed Observed
Total Total
yes no
Observed
Forecast
Yes No Total
Yes a b a+b
No c d c+d
Total a+c b+d n=a+b+c+d
326
Using above 2x2 contingency table and following skill scores may be calculated:
a
a) Probability of Detection, PoD = , Range: 0 to 1, Perfect score = 1
(a + c)
Characteristics: It is sensitive to hits and ignores false alarms. This score is good for rare events and can be artificially
improved by issuing more "yes" forecasts. It should be used combining with the false alarm ratio.
( a + b)
b) Frequency Bias Index, FBI = , Range: 0 to ∞ , Perfect score = 1
(a + c)
Characteristics: Values higher than one indicate over forecasting (too frequently) and values less than 1 indicate
under forecasting (not frequent enough). When used in connection with the PoD or the False Alarm Ratio (FAR), the
bias can be used to explain the forecasting strategy with respect to the frequencies of false alarms or misses. The bias
also can be computed for the non-events, as (c + d)/(b + d). If the frequency bias is computed for all the categories of
the variable, then it gives an indication of the differences between the forecast and observed distributions of the
variable.
b
c) False Alarm Ratio, FAR = , Range: 0 to 1, Perfect score = 0
( a + b)
Characteristics: The false alarm ratio (FAR) is the ratio of the total false alarms (b) to the total events forecast (a + b).
Its range is 0 to 1 and a perfect score is 0. It does not include c and therefore is not sensitive to missed events. It also is
an incomplete score and should be used in connection with the POD.
c
d) Miss Rate, MR = , Range: 0 to 1, Perfect score = 0
(a + c)
Characteristics: It is useful in understanding the missed cases. It is also used in connection with the POD.
(a + d )
e) Percentage Correct, PC = , Range: 0 to 1, Perfect score = 1
n
Characteristics: It is not useful for low frequency events such as severe weather warnings. In these cases, there is a
high frequency of "not forecast/not occurred" events. This gives high PC values that are misleading with regard to the
forecasting of the low frequency event.
b
f) False Alarm Rate, F = , Range: 0 to 1, Perfect score = 0
(b + d )
Characteristics: The false alarm rate is not often used by itself but rather is used in connection with the POD in a
comparative sense. The POD is also referenced to the observations, specifically, the total number of observed events.
a
g) Critical Success Index, CSI = , Range: 0 to 1, Perfect score = 1
(a + b + c)
Characteristics: The CSI is more complete than the FoD and FAR because it is sensitive to both missed events and false
alarms. It does, however, share one drawback with many other scores: it tends to go to 0 as the event becomes rarer.
𝑎𝑎−𝑎𝑎 𝑟𝑟 (𝑎𝑎+𝑏𝑏)(𝑎𝑎+𝑐𝑐)
h) Equitable Threat Score (ETS), 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 = , 𝑎𝑎𝑟𝑟 =
𝑎𝑎+𝑏𝑏+𝑐𝑐−𝑎𝑎 𝑟𝑟 𝑇𝑇
Where T is the sample size. The quantity ar is the number of forecasts expected to be correct by chance, by just
guessing the category to forecast.
Characteristics: It adjusts for the effects of differences in the climatological frequencies of the event between
samples. For evaluation of a forecast or for comparison of the accuracy of forecasts based on the same dataset, the
CSI is a good general score.
2(ad − bc)
i) Heidke Skill Score, HSS = , Range: − ∞ to 0
[(a + c)(c + d ) + (a + b)(b + d )]
Perfect score = 1
Characteristics: The HSS measures the fractional improvement of the forecast over the standard forecast. Like most
skill scores, it is normalized by the total range of possible improvement over the standard, which means Heidke Skill
327
scores can safely be compared on different datasets. The range of the HSS is -∞ to 1. Negative values indicate that the
chance forecast is better, 0 means no skill, and a perfect forecast obtains a HSS of 1.
a d
j) True Skill Score, TSS = + − 1 , Range: 0 to 1, Perfect score = 1
(a + c) (b + d )
Characteristics: This score measures the ability of the forecast to distinguish between occurrences and non-
occurrences of the event. This score is used to indicate whether the forecast is able to discriminate situations that lead
to the occurrence of the event from those that do not.
15.7. Verification of district level agro-meteorological forecast
District level agrometeorological forecasts are issued twice a day for five parameters as mentioned in Table 15.8.
These forecasts are issued after the value addition by the forecasters to the NWP guidance available to them from the
multi-model ensemble (MME) technique.
Table 15.8.
Parameters of district level forecast
S. No. Parameter
1 Rainfall
2. Temperature
3 Relative Humidity
4 Wind direction
5. Wind Speed
6. Cloud cover
These forecasts will be verified by calculating the RMS error, Absolute error, frequency of absolute error and
percentage error respectively (pl refer Table 15.5b). The monthly time series of the forecast error for these
parameters for city, district and subdivision wise forecast will be prepared. Similarly, monthly and seasonal average
forecast errors will be calculated.
15.8. Verification of quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) issued by FMOs
The QPF issued for different river catchments be verified by computing Percentage Correct (PC), Heidke Skill Score
(HSS) and Critical Success Index (CSI), from 6 × 6 Contingency table. The detailed procedure of this forecast verification
technique is given in Table 15.9.
Table 15.9.
Contigency Table for verification of QPF
Observed Forecast range (mm)

range (mm) 0 1-10 11-25 26-50 51-100 >100 Total
0 A b C d e f A
1-10 G h I j k l B
11-25 m n O p q r C
26-50 S t U v w x D
51-100 Y z Aa ab ac ad E
>100 ae af Ag ah ai aj F
Total G H I J K L T
328
PC = [(a+h+o+v+ac+aj)/T]*100
CSI = a/(A+G-a), h/(B+H-h), o/(C+I-o), v/(D+J-v), ac/(E+K-ac), aj/(F+L-aj)
HSS=(a+h+o+v+ac+aj)-[AG+BH+CI+DJ+EK+FL)/T]/[T-(AG+BH+CI+DJ+EK+FL)/T]
The POD, FAR, MR, CSI, BIAS, PC, TSS and HSS, etc, for each category be calculated by reducing the above 6×6
Contingency Table into 2×2 Contingency table for Yes / No forecast.
15.9. Verification of sub-division level forecasts
(i) The present verification method will be continued in case of spatial distribution and intensity forecast.
(ii) The consolidated report will be prepared by the o/o DDGM (WF), Pune.
The contingency table and methodology for verification of spatial distribution and intensity of rainfall at district level
issued daily based on 0300 UTC observation are shown in Table 15.10 and 15.11 respectively.
Table 15.10.
Verification of Spatial distribution forecast
Forecast Range
Observed Range
Dry Isol Scatt Fairly widespread Widespread Total
Dry a b c d e J
Isol f g h i j K
Scatt k l m n o L
Fairly p q r s t M
widespread
Widespread u v w x y N
Total O P Q R S T
PC = [(a+g+m+s+y)/T]*100
CSI = a/(J+O-a), g/(K+P-g), m/(L+Q-m), s/(M+R-s), y/(N+S-y)
HSS= a+g+m+s+y – [JO+KP+LQ+MR+NS)/T]/ [T-(JO+KP+LQ+MR+NS)/T]
Conversion of categorical forecast into deterministic forecast. The POD, FAR, MR, CSI, BIAS, PC, TSS and HSS etc for
each category be calculated by reducing the above 6x6 Contingency Table into 2×2 Contingency Table for yes/no
forecast.
FORECAST
OBSERVED Moderate Very Heavy Extreme
Dry Light Rain Heavy Rain Total
Rain Rain Heavy rain
Dry a b c d e F A
Light Rain g h i j k l B
Moderate
m n o p q r C
Rain
Heavy Rain s t u v w x D
Very Heavy rain y z aa ab ac ad E
Extreme
ae af ag ah ai aj F
Heavy rain
Total G H I J K L T
PC = [(a+h+o+v+ac+aj)/T]*100
CSI = a/(A+G-a), h/(B+H-h), o/(C+I-o), v/(D+J-v), ac/(E+K-ac), aj/(F+L-aj)
HSS=[ a+h+o+v+ac+aj -(AG+BH+CI+DJ+EK+FL)/T]/[T- (AG+BH+CI+DJ+EK+FL)/T)]
The POD, FAR, MR, CSI, BIAS, PC, TSS and HSS, etc, for each category be calculated by reducing the above 6×6
Contingency Table into 2×2 Contingency Table for yes/no forecast.
329
15.10. Future scope
By the new method of forecast verification, the verification is being made more quantitative, incorporating various
skill scores like Probability of Detection (POD), False alarm rate (FAR) Missing rate (MR) = b/(b+a) Correct Non-
occurrence (C-Non), Critical Success Index (CSI) Bias for Occurrence (Bias) Percentage Correct (Pc) True skill score (Tss)
Heidke skill score (HSS). It is desired that:
(i) A separate/independent forecast verification cell as well as verification by respective forecasting unit.
(ii) Verification against climatology and persistency.
(iii) To write a report every week to check the consistency of forecast in order to improve the forecast accuracy &
hence its reliability.
(iv) To write a report on monthly and seasonal forecast verification.
(v) Display of all forecast’s performance on IMD website.
330
List of Contributors and Reviewers for SOP-2021
Chapters Title Contributors Reviewer
General Forecasting Dr. Sathi Devi, Dr. H. R. Biswas, Shri Krishna

Chapter 1 Dr. G. C. Debnath
Organization of IMD Mishra
Shri Virendra Singh, Dr. A. K. Mitra, Shri Amit

Satellite Application in
Chapter 2 Kumar, Shri Chinmay R. Khadke, Dr. R. K. Giri, Dr. N. Puviarasan
weather forecasting
Shri Ramashray Yadav
Shri K. C. Sai Krishnan, Shri B. A. M. Kannan,

Radar Applications in
Chapter 3 Shri R. Bibraj, Shri Ved Prakash Singh, Dr. Soma Sen Roy
weather forecasting
Ms. Arpita Rastogi
Dr. K. Sathi Devi, Dr. S. Balachandran, Dr. R. K.

Public Weather
Chapter 4 Jenamani, Dr. Jayanta Sarkar, Shri Shobhit Dr. Naresh Kumar
Services
Katiyar
Dr. R. K. Jenamani, Dr. Ashok Kumar Das,

Heavy Rainfall
Chapter 5 Dr. Kuldeep Srivastava (RWFC), Shri Shobhit Ms. Sunitha Devi
Warning services
Katiyar
Shri Charan Singh, Shri B. A. M. Kannan,

Thunderstorm
Chapter 6 Shri Sunit Das, Shri Ranjan Phukan, Dr. Soma Sen Roy
Warning services
Shri Chinmay Khadke
Heat & Cold wave Dr. Naresh Kumar, Shri Radheshyam Sharma,
Dr. Ganesh Kumar
Chapter 7 Monitoring & Warning Dr. Shashi Kant
Das
services
Dr. R. K. Jenamani, Shri Charan Singh, Shri

Chapter 8 Fog Warning Services Dr. G. C. Debnath
Chinmay Khadke, Shri Sandeep Kumar Sharma
Chapter 9 Nowcasting Services Dr. Soma Sen Roy, Shri B. Shibin, Shri R. Bibraj Dr. R. K. Jenamani
Multi-hazard Early Ms. Sunitha Devi, Dr. Sankar Nath Dr. N.

Chapter 10 Dr. S. Balachandran
Warning System Puviarasan, Ms. Nitha T. S.
Urban Meteorological Dr. S. D. Attri, Dr. R. K. Jenamani, Shri S. K.

Chapter 11 Dr. H. R. Biswas
services Asok Raja, Dr. A. K. Das, Dr. Lata Vishnoi
Marine Weather Ms. Neeta K Gopal, Dr. Ganesh Das,

Chapter 12 Dr. Medha Khole
Forecasting Services Dr. Manorama Mohanty
Meteorological Shri Y. K. Reddy, Dr. Sankar Nath, Dr. Kuldeep

Dr. Sanjib
Chapter 13 Communication and Srivastava (ISSD), Shri Saurav Adhikari,
Bandyopadhyay
Early Dissemination Shri Sunny Chug
Dr. Medha Khole, Dr. Sanjib Bandyopadhyay,

Chapter 14 Post Event survey Dr. Ganesh Das, Dr. Sourish Bandyopadhyay, Dr. G. C. Debnath
Sudeep Kumar B.L Debapriya Roy
Dr. Medha Khole, Dr. Naresh Kumar, Shri

Chapter 15 Forecast Verification Dr. S. D. Kotal
Umasankar Das, Shri Atul Singh, Dr. S. Sanap
331
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Standard Operation Procedure - Weather

India Meteorological Department

India Meteorological Department

When citing these guidelines the following citation should be used :

New Delhi Mrutyunjay Mohapatra

GENERAL FORECASTING ORGANISATION OF

The forecasting organisation is set up with the following objectives:

1.2. Current Forecasting Organization

1.2.1. General Forecast

1.2.2. Marine Forecast

Area of responsibility of ACWCs/CWCs

1.2.3. Cyclone Warning

The Cyclone Warning Organization of the Department is given in Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1. Cyclone Warning Organisational Structure of IMD

Figure 1.2. Area of responsibility for RSMC, New Delhi

1.2.4. Agrometeorological Services

1.2.5. Flood Meteorological Offices

1.2.6. Nowcast Services

1.2.7. Mountain Meteorological Services

1.2.8. Forecast Services for Sectorial Applications

1.3. Revision of SOP

1.4. Responsibility of Forecasting Centres

The three tier structure of the forecasting services is summarised below.

Figure 1.2. Meteorological sub-divisions of the Country

Details of the Meteorological sub-divisions of the Country

S. No. Name of Sub-division S. No. Name of Sub-division

The weather forecasting organization of the department is given in Figure 1.3.

Central / State Govt/ Media/ Public

Figure 1.3. Weather forecasting organization of IMD

1.5. Forecast scheme

The scheme for issue of forecast

1.6. Forecast Generation

1.7. Terminology used in Forecasts

1.7.1. Spatial distribution of Rainfall

Terminology for Spatial Distribution of rainfall

Spatial Distribution Descriptive term

Dry Dry No station reported/expecting rainfall

Isolated One or two Places ≤25% of stations get/expected to get rainfall

Scattered At a few Places (26–50)% of stations get/expected to get rainfall

Fairly Widespread At many Places (51–75)% of stations get/expected to get rainfall

Wide spread At most places (76–100)% of stations get/expected to get rainfall

1.7.2. Intensity of 24-hour Accumulated rainfall

Terminology for intensity of 24 hour accumulated rainfall

S. No. Terminology Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (cm) Percentile

1.7.3. Intensity of 24-hour Accumulated snowfall

Terminology for intensity of 24 hour accumulated snowfall

1.7.4. Probability of Occurrence of the Weather event

Terminology for probability of occurrence of weather event

Term Probability of occurrence

1.7.5. Description of Temperature departure from normal

Terminology for Temperature departure from normal

Terminology Departures from normal

1.7.6. Description of temperature tendency

Terminolgy for temperature tendency

Terminology Change in twenty four hours

1.7.7. Symbols for Severe weather Representation

Symbols for severe weather representation in warnings

S. No. Weather Type Symbol